stuart: yeah, that's right. [laughter] elizabeth: why do you do this to me? torture me? yeah, that is how silly the sport is. stuart: that's how we torture you. have a wonderful weekend. elizabeth: you too. stuart: time's up. neil, it's yours. neil: thank you, institute, very much. -- thank you, stuart, very much. we are following the president's move, getting tougher on trade, word soon that the condition of india will be -- the country of india will be responding spoon, and in the next few days, you could get canada and mexico. this is all back and forth on how far you go with tariffs, whether 10%, 15%, 20% of what vehicles are affected, you start with cars but advance, obviously, into things like whiskey and a whole lot of other stuff. edward lawrence following it very closely in washington. what's the latest, my friend? >> reporter: exactly, neil. those european union tariffs go into effect starting today, these are retaliatory tariffs, but they're very targeted to try

and go after the president's base. take a look at some of these items here. we're talking motorcycles, agriculture, rice, peanut butter and orange juice. the e.u. also match our tariffs on steel and aluminum, added bourbon, cigars, makeup, clothes and boats. president trump in the last hour, hour and a half is tweeting out saying, you know, he's not backing down. based on the tariffs and trade barriers long placed on the u.s. and great companies and its workers by the european union, if they are not soon broken down and removed, we will be placing a 20% tariff on all of their cars coming into the u.s. build them here. that's exactly the point that the president's advisers made this morning here on mornings with maria, now talking cars. the european union, long before the president got into office, charged us a 10% tariff on their cars, we charge just 2.5%. >> the position is just enough, enough. you heard at the g7 he said

let's just all go to zero. he wants a better world with more free trade, and he wants to stop allowing other countries to disadvantage the u.s. >> reporter: you know, that also includes china. this morning the chinese foreign minister is saying here today that they're going to take qualitative and quantitative consequences for the upping their ante on that front. but the bottom line is the chinese are not changing their practices, they're not doing any of the things that president xi said at the beginning of this year he was going to do when he was talking to a conference in asia. so, again, we have some of these trade barriers that the president seems to want to use tariffs in order to get the playing field more level. neil? neil: edward lawrence in washington. you would think upping the ante would be rattling the stocks, so far that is not the case. even the news that opec is increasing production, but not as much as earlier thought, that that would be a worry to the markets here. quite the opposite. what's going on and why the is the market bracing itself for an

outright war? maybe because it doesn't see one here, i'm talking about a trade war. let's get the latest from brian riley and gabby, what's going on here? this doesn't seem to jibe with what you think would be the predictable reaction out of stocks. >> well, there was a little bit of a dip earlier this week when the president announced that he was going to be imposing an additional tariffs on $200 billion worth of chinese goods, but it does seem to have corrected itself, and there isn't as much concern about the impact on the economy that this trade dispute, as the administration calls it, is going to have as, you know, critics of president trump have suggested it would. the administration feels that they can sustain this trade dispute because the u.s. economy is strong, that we're creating jobs, that our gdp is up, that we are in a good position to be making these demands from china and the european union.

and that even if this does somehow disrupt our economy, the market will correct itself, and i think that's what we're seeing happen here. neil: d.r. barton, can you even play the trade move one way or other in the markets? i think it's fool's gold here and probably a fool's mission, but it is noisy, isn't it? >> it does make for a lot of noise, neil. and i'll tell you that if you're a short-term trader, i think buying these little pullbacks has been a successful strategy especially if you get into the right indexes. the russell is actually up since the trade tear lives -- tariffs, the small cap index is up since the tariffs were first announced eight days ago, last thursday. i think if you're a longer term investor certainly stay away, but -- of trying to trade this. but the fine point is that the s&p and the dow are only down a couple of percent. if we were expecting a big, full-blown trade war, they'd be down much more.

neil: that's a very good point. you know, brian, i'm looking at this too from maybe the trust the markets seem to be placing in the president. they've doubted him before, gotten panicky before, and the markets have roared back, things have stabilized. that's not always the case, i know, but it's the only to way i can explain this predictable reaction we get. >> well, if you look at specific sectors, you know, look at soybean futures, corn prices, look at the impact it is having on farmers and ranchers. if you're a small manufacturer in hutchinson, kansas, or popular bluff, missouri, the -- poplar bluff, missouri, the administration views you as collateral damage -- neil: in other words, all those items have been tumbling, markets are drying up for these farmers, right? >> absolutely. and it's clear this is a failed strategy. peter navarro promised that other countries would not retaliate. you went down the list of countries retaliating. neil: right. >> we're looking at about $75 billion in retaliation against the u.s., and the idea that we're stronger than you so we ca punch you and you punch back

it won't be quite as hard, we still end up with a black eye. 9 that doesn't make any sense. neil: gabby, we have a lot of deadlines without getting too much into the weeds, there's a july 1st deadline, a first wave of tariffs for some countries, a july 6th wave, an end of july wave and then the questions in question, india, that's a july 10th development. again, i could go on and on just to mention these dates that are going to come and fly, but it's going to be an opportunity for these countries -- including our own -- to be called on our respective bluffs, so what happens? >> yeah. i think the administration is barreling towards a lot of these deadlines they have set themselves, and they have to make a decision whether or not they want to continue to level tariffs on these countries and face the prospect of retaliatory measures being taken. obviously the concern that was there initially that the european union and that china and india and canada and mexico would all respond to the earlier tariffs that were imposed with their own measures ended up

becoming a reality, and now the administration is grappling with that. so i do think that's going to be taken into account as they move forward. that being said, they don't seem to be getting out of negotiations that are ongoing. what they want to. and so that would suggest that this trade dispute is only going to be going on for the remainder of the summer if not well into the fall. neil: you know, d.r. barton, look at this, i mean, the argument is always -- and the president has used this -- that all of these countries, chiefly china, are far more vulnerable to a trade war than we are, we would be damaged less than they would be, and so it's in china's interest to do something. do you buy that, and is that the line given the fact that a lot of the asian markets, particularly china, have that tumble far more than ours since all of this began? >> yeah. neil, you know, the numbers are very, very clear. you look at the world trade organization numbers, the cia

fact book numbers, china exports 45% more than the u.s. exports, and we import 35% more than they do. so clearly the president sees that he has a strong negotiating stance here, and he -- neil: i think he's overplague it, d.r., i think he's overplaying it. i agree with brian on this, i'll get to him in a second, the president might be getting too cocky about this. reading the economic numbers, reading the fact that the chinese haven't yet responded to the latest threat of $200 billion in additional tariffs and that they're blinking. i don't know if they're blinking, and i don't know if he is in the position of strength he thinks he is. but that's just my opinion. what do you think? >> well, your point's well made, neil. and the two things that make me, that make me think that he's playing this from a position of strength and definitely from a negotiating position not intending to have these tariffs

go through, he's already said he'd like more free trade is, number one, the language he uses. he said we hope the e.u. will end these soon. not a deadline, not like a hard and fast thing. and also once again back to the point the markets don't really seem to be pricing in any kind of trade war. neil: yeah, no, you're right about that. but, brian, to touch on what i just said and what you said really at the outset here, this idea that these things can get worse and the impact is real now, could i ask you about the chinese not responding in kind to the threat on the part of the president? be i'm thinking about $200 billion in additional tariffs on you, you even think about going that route with me, i'm going to call for another $200 billion, and they have not, they have not responded to that. they've verbally gone back and attacked that line, but they haven't come back. so what do you read into that? >> well, i think they're going to wait and see. and with respect to china, if you want to encourage changing china, you don't start a trade fight with canada and europe and

japan and all of our allies. [laughter] that strategy makes zero sense to me. and even aside from retaliation, there are 20,000 requests for exclusion from steel and aluminum tariffs from american companies that the commerce department has. they've approved 42. 42 out of 20,000 requests for exclusion from tariffs from u.s. companies that are being hurt. these tariffs hurt us even aside from the retaliation that's coming. it's not a matter of if, it's just a matter of how much we're going to hurt ourself. i really think the president needs to hire some new trade advisers to prevent him from continuing to go down this road. neil: all right, we'll watch closely. to all of your point, the impact that some fear hasn't materialized yet, but again markets can sometimes be wrong. we'll see what happens. in the meantime, with the dow up about 166 .5 point, there is that separate ballot on immigration. the president is telling republicans we're wasting our time, wait until after the midterms when we might have

bigger majorities. i'm parapraising -- paraphrasing, but is that a sure thing? and the president reversed himself on separating kids from parents. why on the trade front that seemed to be an encouraging development because he is hope, pragmatic enough to change. it's my read, so it's probably crazy, but i'm watching it. like a lot of things. the dow up 171. ♪ ♪

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neil: in order to facilitate a debate and when your party and others are categorizing the president this way -- and, by the way, he's not exactly been st. francis responding in kind -- we are never going to get anything done on this issue. >> neil, i think he's a cruel, cold con around it's who only changed the policy -- neil: and you want to negotiate with that man and say he's a cold, cruel con artist. you called me that, congressman, i tell you, i'm not going to negotiate twinkies with you, you know? that's what hurts the debate, right? >> neil, this man cruelly separated can kids from their parents, put them in cages and now wants a medal because he reversed the policy? neil: he doesn't want a medal.

and back and forth it went. one of the things i was trying to get to with the good congressman from california was this inability, this intractability for the two sides to get together when they say hard things about each other, but referring to the president of the united states that he a hates kids, that he's cold and cruel and a con artist, are you to going to sit down with the other side when they're that mindset? and backing and forth we go. -- back and forth we go. so the president's view has been, of course, we'll wait until after the midterms, drop this obsession with trying to get something done with immigration now, just put it on ice and see what happens. i wonder if republican california congressman dana rohrabacher agrees. the president is probably hearing and seeing a lot of this stuff and saying it's not worth it, wait until after november, but things could conceivably be worse for your party after that. >> well, the president's very wise in understanding that there is not a consensus in this congress of what to do on this issue, and there's not even a consensus within the republican party. so let's focus on what we can

get done. so i think the president has shown himself to be, again, to be very wise in those type of decisions. but let us note he a also recognizes the democrats are playing the worst kind of political games with these young people. the fact is that this is the same policy that was in place for eight years under obama, and they didn't mention one word of it. not one protest came out of -- but when it's trump who's president, all of a sudden he's mean-spirited for continuing the obama policy -- neil: well, you know, they draw the distinction that president obama didn't take it to the level this president did. frankly, you're right to argue that there's hypocrisy on both sides here, but i think what's being questioned now is the president did cave, if you want to say that, to demands he do something in an executive action, as he did, signing an executive order to stop separating kids from their parents. but he also pointed out that democrats gotta do something

next, or you guys gotta come up with something substantial here, substantive here that would avoid whole debate, and it doesn't look -- to your point and certainly to the democratic congressman's point -- like you are. you guys are just miles apart and hate each other. >> well, the president tried to make sure that the democrats could not use these kids in this, i would say a very despicable way, using these young people to use them as leverage for their own political gain. and that's what was happening. the president recognized it, it was getting in the way of dealing with the issue, so he made the right decision can. it was a rational -- neil: all right. it seems like you're saying in the interim it's going to be impossible to come up with something, so even with this moderate approach, i guess, that was cobbled together by those working closely with speaker paul ryan, that's put off until at least next week, maybe beyond, right? >> well, the american people have got to speak up and, quite frankly, i have no doubt that

the american people do not want to have this massive flow of illegal immigration into our country. and if we begin to give amnesties to different groups in our country who are here illegally, we're doing nothing but inviting people -- especially parents -- from around the world -- neil: so amnesty is drawing the line for you. amnesty or at least anyone with when's here now who shouldn't be here now you want out. >> well, i don't want them granted amnesty. and how we approach them at that point, okay, let's talk about it. but they should not be given any legal status. if we do, it is a message to millions of people -- neil: no, i hear what you're saying. i want to be clear because there are some differences in how you word that. now, when you say you don't want amnesty, what about a path to amnesty, a path to citizenship? >> no, wait, wait, wait. amnesty is changing a legal -- someone who's here illegally,

giving them a legal status is amnesty. neil: i know. i understand that, sir, but the path to that, to the path to getting to that -- >> no, no. the path is you can't give -- if you say, oh, well, during this time period you're here legally, you have given them a legal basis to be here. you've told everybody overseas, get over to the united states as soon as you can. neil: so the ones who are here illegally now and those who you would put on a path to citizenship, you would be against that because they are here illegally, and you're not going to grant them amnesty, so no path to citizenship, right? >> well, we actually are spending billions of dollars that should go to our veterans, should go to our own children, our own families, our own health care for our own citizens. we're doing that for people who are here illegally. you give them any type of legal status, they can start taking more of that money. why are we going to bring more people in -- neil: so what happens to them? i just want to be clear because

i did, i heard quite the opposite from the democratic congressman here and, believe me, i'm trying to broker a deal. i'm just trying to understand where there might be similar light on both sides, but not much from what i can see. what would you entertain here? because the people who are here illegally, you don't want amnesty, there's no path to citizenship for a group like that, so you kick them out? >> if someone is here illegally, they shouldn't be given legal status. if they are caught here, they should be escorted out. neil: there are millions of them. >> but i think the most important thing we could do -- yeah, there are millions because we have failed to do our job. neil: understand. >> and we're going to make it even worse -- neil: so kick 'em out? is kick 'em out? >> -- tens of millions with what we're doing now. no, i think the best way to do it is have very heavy enforcement that they can't get jobs, so you have to have e-verify for everything, and they can't get any government benefits. and if you do that, i think most of these millions will leave because we aren't then paying

their way to stay here. now, and whether it's you want to have a mass deportation, that's not what i'm advocating. but you certainly don't give 'em legal status so they get jobs and benefits. neil: congressman, thank you very much. miles apart, but we'll see, anything could happen. right now the dow in and out of session highs, at least for today, up 178 points. a lot of this driven by optimism that we will skirt, the world will skirt a global trade war. it really encompasses a lot of countries, but everything has to fall into place here. a lot of this falls on optimism that that the chinese have not responded in kind to the president's threat of $200 billion in additional tariffs. remember when he said you wouldn't think about going against that, i'm going to put $200 billion on top of that. the chinese aren't happy, they've been complaining about that, but so far they haven't acted on that. i'm telling you, it's all kabooky theater. we'll have more after this. ♪ shoes,

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. neil: real quickly, just learning the u.s. house, namely republicans, are going to bring up that immigration bill. this is the so-called moderate measure, although it got a lot of votes, 193 votes, despite the president saying just deal with this after the midterms. put it off, it's not worth it right now. house majority leader kevin mccarthy said they will try sometime next week, see how its prospects go. it will be an uphill battle, even if it were to get through the house getting it to the senate. hope springs eternal. oil prices up about 4%. devil in the details now. the details are opec agreed to increase production which would send prices going the other way. but apparently, they didn't increase it to the degree many thought they would. kristina partsinevelos with the latest. what's going on? reporter: exactly, production output was lower than expected. they said they're going to put

one million extra barrels on the market per day, but really it's going to be 600,000, because not all countries can meet the demands, and that's pushing up the price of oil today. you have about 14 nations that are part of opec. countries work together on petroleum policies. that's pushing up the price of oil, also pushing up drillers that you see across the globe in markets today. over the last little while, a rally ahead of the opec meeting. three past days leading up to it because investors or oil traders are saying maybe this meeting won't be that great because iran wants to see production down but saudi arabia changed opinion and wants output to increase. there's a lot of politics that's involved with the opec meetings. nonetheless, you are seeing not only oil drillers up, energy stocks higher over the last 24 hours or so just because of the opec meeting. just to reiterate, why are we seeing the oil rally? the first one could be because

the production boost that was expected today of one million barrels, 600,000, was lower than expected. the second major point too is demand around the globe is so strong still. you have americans buying a lot of cars, the economy is doing well, economies are doing well across the globe too, some oil traders believe that this output, this supply is still not that high compared to the amount demand you have. and the last comment from analyst early this mornis we were in overcorrection territory, we saw prices dip. now it's coming up ever so slightly. what does it mean for you? gas prices around the average price, $2.86 today from aaa. aaa warning, get ready for july 4th weekend, gas prices climb higher. why? demand is increasing, so expect it to be a little higher. neil, are you going away july 4th weekend?

it's in another week. neil: you ruined my day. reporter: i'm sorry, i'm sorry. neil: thank you very much. is she right about that? the july 4th holiday, 47 million people hit the road, i don't know how they come up with the number. 47 million, which would be a record. the schork report, steven schork on that. are they looking at higher gas prices than now? >> not looking at substantially higher prices, neil. they've had a significant run-up in oil prices leading up to the opec meeting. of course a correction over the past two weeks but a significant rally. a lot of that price in oil has been translated into gasoline. that's currently in tank at the retail stations now. so you'll likely see a potential slight increase, but essentially without a major rally in oil prices from this point on. it's not going to be anything substantial that's going to curb anyone's behavior going into the holiday weekend.

neil: i notice that vehicles that sell are usually suvs, big gas-guzzlers, no one is rushing to pick up a lead for the time being, if higher prices would have slowed that down, we're seeing little evidence of it. what do you think? >> and this is just it. we have record demand for gasoline. back in february week had record demand for any point of the year. you think about that. february, when a lot of the roads and the northern latitudes are covered in ice and snow, and gasoline demand was never stronger, that includes the holiday months of july and august. so we're going into the summer, demand for crude oil is very strong globally, at record highs here in the united states. gasoline demand at very high prices, excuse me, high demand and prices are responding in accord. i would venture that without this demand, you would not see this price increase. so the question has to be are

oil prices, gasoline price too high? obviously, not. we have to keep in mind, demand drives prices, demand based on the strong economy, getting prices in this market that are in accord with what you would expect. neil: steven, thank you very much, have a good weekend. >> you, too, neil, thank you. neil: look at the papers and cd rates, have you noticed a lot of banks, we can give you the money, a cd for 2%, 2.25%. one bank i haven't heard of it before, 2.5%. might seem paltry to you, but if money is pushed into the relatively safe investments, what happens to other investments? we're on that, after this. ♪ you shouldn't be rushed into booking a hotel. with expedia's add-on advantage, booking a flight unlocks discounts on select hotels until the day you leave for your trip. add-on advantage.

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. neil: you know a lot of money flowing into the treasury yield. the 10 year at 2.91%. remember when it got comfortably over 3%? at what point do people keep pursuing that and the government protections that come with that, the dow racing up about 160 points. it's been whipsawed there. let's get the read from the investment managing editor at "barron's," beverly goodman. good to have you back. what do we have to look for, with this move? >> in terms of rates and what to do with your cash. rates are going to continue to rise. they went up a quarter point a week ago. fed signaled two more likes this year, that means cash rates are going up. what's more is bond issuance going up. this is the second quarter we've increased issuance. last quarter was the first time since 2009. we are issuing way more bonds

at much higher rates than they've been. neil: you are talking government bonds? >> yes. neil: corporations were upping the ante as well, what's to stop an investor especially if you are going for highly rated bonds through highly rated companies, where you can get comfortably more than 3% to say hey, i'm going it go that route. >> corporate bonds involve some sort of risk. the issuance, they want to issue as much debt while rates are fairly low and it's cheaper for them. neil: are they in the numbers that would have them getting out of the stocks, in other words? >> not yet. there's more money going into cash than before investors and institutions are moving in that direction, but we're still talking about very low rates. if you're looking for straight income, you can get higher rates on bonds than you can in just the dividends from an s&p index fund. neil: right, it's always the choice, what level do you make

that move. >> right. and what risk are you willing to take? in stocks you can lose capital as you are drawing that income. if income is the main focus, you are probably better off in income-specific fund, either equity income or fixed income. neil: people like the income, no matter the environment. >> yep. neil: let me get your read on inflation. you mentioned the federal reserve telegraphing two more hikes this year. we've had two already. what could change the picture, if tariffs kick in, which are inflationary themselves, do you worry about if you're the fed slowing down the economic activity or the higher prices that come as a result of the tariffs and you got to quash that? >> the fed has for a long time not focused too much on managing inflation, and i don't see that changing in the very near future. i also think that the effects of a trade war in tariffs are not really clear yet, and inflation is almost certainly coming, definitely on the

horizon, we've seen it tick up a little bit but for investors to change their behavior in anticipation of it, and for the fed to really start changing their behavior in anticipation of it, i think we're a few months away. neil: you don't think the fed is behind the curve right now? >> it's hard to say. we're in strange times. neil: we are in strange times. beverly goodman, baron's investing editor. following up from the supreme court decision yesterday which argued that no matter where you sell, you better make sure you're paying state taxes what you are selling. the national retail federation senior vice president, what do you think? >> we're excited about the opinion, it was a long time coming. this opinion levels the playing field for all retailers, which benefits all retailers. the rule that states were using to collect taxes from sales was

very antiquated. nobody thinks about retail as being based where your physical presence is anymore. we're excited about the effect it's going to have in retail across the country. neil: i've been studying, and it's dangerous when i do, i've talked to so many people, savvy shoppers, not so savvy shoppers, probably in the latter category who say who cares? i might end up having to pay more. the convenience about not having to find a parking spot, walking into a mall, it's okay, it's not the end of the world, what do you think of it? >> i think that's exactly the point of making sure that we're collecting taxes based on where people are doing their shopping, rather than based on the type of channel that stores are using to sell their product. that's exactly the point that we would make and we think that's the point that really drove the supreme court to update the law here.

neil: you know, i have a feeling that amazon was getting ready for this moment. remember, criticism it got from a lot of the brick and mortar guys, you escape having to pay the same taxes our customers have to. but beefed up operations in 45 or 46 states, that's a moot point. whatever smaller online retailers might feel the pinch? >> that's a great question. it's a really important question, we think that this is really going to, at the end of the day, have a negligible effect on online retailers. one of two reasons. one is that the law the court found to be constitutional, the south dakota law has a safe harbor for smaller sellers. if you sell less than $100,000 worth of goods in south dakota, you are not going to worry about collecting taxes on sales in south dakota. second thing is, i suspect that within a week or two, there will be a larger number of else to for smaller sellers to use to do the tax collection that they need to do.

and the third point i would make, actually, is this is not a new tax. these taxes have been in existence, the question has been who collects them and remits them to the state? so i think at the end of the day this is not a sea change but it is a significant improvement for businesses deciding how to build the business and now don't have to factor in, an arbitrary law that determines where they collect taxes. neil: stephanie, thank you very much, have a good weekend. >> thanks, neil. >> the dow up about 167 points. p perplexed over the opec deal. where they did agree to increase production. saudi arabia and iran were arguing how much to increase. the disappointment that something that would be a move to send prices down is sending them up because they didn't increase it as much. the effect on gasoline prices or what your travel plans are, way too soon to tell. but for the moment, it's not

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. neil: all right, we're getting more indications that we're cozying up to russia, setting up something, plans about a summit later on. now something that builds up

the drama and reports out of the energy secretary rick perry and alexander novak plan to meet on tuesday, presumably to talk about oil prices, presumably to talk about the deal today where they're going to increase production, but not as much as earlier thought, that's lifting oil prices here another three bucks a barrel. 4.6%, but they've been jostling around the same area, hasn't affected gas prices, that could happen, little evidence of that. a couple weeks' drag here. we're looking at tech stock, most are down today despite the dow's advance, they've had an incredible week what to make of that with deirdre bolton, connell mcshane. deirdre, what's going on her? >> i think the bigger tech names, larger cap, alphabet, google, facebook, amazon, netflix, worries about trade issues between the u.s. and china, and if you look at the tech sector at the big caps

versus the chip stocks, you will see the chip stocks, intel and others and intel had specific company news yesterday but they've been taking it tough or the chin, whereas these bigger ones, facebook, amazon, netflix, et cetera, immune to tariffs and which direction they are going. neil: every time they're beaten, they are not beaten down long, they've been punished, they've been in and out of the leadership for almost this entire bull market. >> right, when another company or sector looks to take leadership, they drag it back from them and reclaim it in many ways. the trade on trade has been kind of interesting to watch because i don't know that everybody necessarily knows in the investment community what to make of what's going on right now and how to place their bets. there's been a lot of knee jerk stuff when you see trade in the headlines in recent days, today a bounceback day, in general, boeing gets sold off,

caterpillar sold off, happens every time and comes back. i wonder whether that changes, you know, logically speaking, it would make sense for technology companies that do a lot of business domestically and see a lot of it in the russell 2000 to do well, a company like apple or large cap to your point, technology company that does have exposure overseas, i don't know they're immune forever, you are right. neil: weren't they looking at a carveout for apple on this stuff? >> yeah, and apple sells more iphones in china than the u.s. china is a very important market, certainly, for apple. one interesting trade reversal that we were talking about, you mentioned the dow. today is opposite day. dow is up but on track for worst week in something like three months and the nasdaq is the opposite in the sense it's been winning, winning, winning, all this time and this week would be the first in four it snaps a winning streak. we have inverse relationship here.

neil: fascinating insight. does it mean anything? >> i feel like what happens with trade, people know they binge watch on netflix. they order a bunch of stuff from amazon. if you go back 5,000 years to the peter lynch model where average investors are buying what they know, they're kind of like okay, i still watch a lot on netflix. neil: and they do ignore all the tension stuff, don't they? remarkable that they don't think it will be a problem. >> no matter which way the trade argument were to go. go back to a world where globalization is cool again, and you know free trade is in again as it was for however many years, the companies do great, to your point, because that's how the future is being molded, but at the same time, if we do go to a protectionist world, we are still going to need our iphones and the companies make the shift to iphones or how things are produced and where they're produced and either way there is demand for the products the

companies are putting out and the technology they're coming up with. you're right, maybe counteracting the argument, they are immune for longer than they think. >> we're gaming, talking about this, all of our children are collectively addicted to "fortnite." one of the platforms is maybe partnering, where i'm looking at always for the next 12 months, what's next, what's next, i think esports, gaming. >> hopefully whatever is next doesn't sound like a third world war is breaking out of my den every night. >> you are reading a paper and you're like look out. neil: you have to be careful with that because they're hooked up with each other online. >> yes, they are. neil: i'm yelling and cursing, get off that! >> and everybody can hear you. all their parents know, neil. neil: he seems so kind on tv. [ laughter ] >> you know, we're talking about technology and how it's been absorbing all of this. mark zuckerberg is right on the cusp of surpassing warren

buffett as the richest, you know, guy, the richer guy, not jeff bezos status, but that's amazing to me. >> incidentally, speaking with high-end real estate broker and mark zuckerberg and his wife bought something in chelsea. they love the silicon valley guys, not surprised he's there. warren buffett, also, has joined the giving pledge, he's started to give away a lot of his money. neil: that depleted a little bit, bill gates came down as well. isn't it amazing. >> mark zuckerberg hasn't quite started to that extent yet. i know he started on a philanthropic path. not in the same way and for as many years, that's why he's inching up. >> give him a break, he's in his early 30s. neil: none of this has hurt him, the privacy issues and momentarily hit. >> do you remember that

european, i thought this is really going to go after him in a way our congress won't because we still have pride that we built this company in this country, and the europeans yell, they look cranky and nothing happens. >> europeans, save the italians are cranky. is the president preparing his base for a possible trade war, for the possibility that they're going to have to pay more for goods but the political thing to do. the right thing to do. he'll make an argument that longer term we can absorb the pain and should absorb the pain. started to make that? >> i don't think he's articulated. a few times he has, main argument has been about fairness and the other night in duluth, something along the lines, we've been getting ripped off for years and fair again and he'll stop and pause and trying to drive it home, for whatever you think of the president, a branding expert over the years and he'll say

think of this word reciprocal, think of this word reciprocal, fair on both sides. neil: are they ready to make it reciprocal? >> i asked people about that, and the ideas -- and i've been surprised in a few of the recent trips about how much leeway, supporters of the president are going to be on the trade issue because they will say, when you ask them about it, yeah, i have to pay a few bucks more for something else but china has been ripping us up a for years. he has room to play here. there are a couple things that could come up. one big one is the fall harvest for the farmers. the guy in iowa we had a month ago, nothing has happened yet, but okay, but by september, late august, early september when thinks start to happen, if they do, that answer might change. neil: and the pinch is real in the futures market. >> and you have europe say we're going to import

motorcycles, every european citizen is going to pay more and orange juice and pick things that annoy us. neil: i wonder once that starts happening, how we do. >> and how long it takes to be felt. >> the midterm election this year, obviously. neil: that's this year? [laughter] >> cancel that vacation. neil: my gosh. >> it could be -- neil: i don't think we're ready for it, i don't think we're ready for it, something you better get ready for. guys, thank you very much, have a wonderful weekend. i'll be working tomorrow. just to let you know. >> what time is that show on? neil: 10:00 a.m. eastern. we'll have more after this. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. stay at la quinta. where we're changing with stylish make-overs.

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. neil: all right, take a look where we are, up about 166 points. still, so, so weak here. when you think about it, when you think about when all the trade stuff started happening and escalating in early march and look at the chinese markets in particular, in fact, you look at foreign markets in particular, but particularly the chinese market falling about 11 to 12% from those levels. essentially unchanged. that tells you all you need to know and explains the white house, those guys have more to lose than us, no one wins the trade war, but some win it more than others, presumably us and that going to get to the table whether we're talking about the

european union right now and now we're going back and forth on 20% tariffs on cars, or china, itself promising a response to the latest wave of tariffs. president is considering. remember he warned them with the $200 billion increase in tariffs, if they want to mimic that, he'll raise it another 200 billion. it's not evident in the way the market's reacting to all of this. blake burman on all of that and the white house is handling all of this. what do you got? reporter: we focus on china and both countries as it relates to trade. the latest salvo from the european union as they instituted 2.8 billion euros' worth, $3.2 billion worth of tariffs in response to the steel and aluminum tariff the president slapped on the eu and other nations about a month ago, the president did not sit idle, he sent out a tweet

warning if the eu doesn't change ways as it relates to trade, he could up the ante on auto tariffs raising that to 20%. here's the equation as it stands at this moment. u.s. cars that go into the eure face a 10% tariff. from the eu to here, a 2.5% tariff, the president is threatening to increase that eightfold. >> the europeans have a 10% tariff on our automobiles which is in place before president trump did anything and the 10% tariffs are harmful to american workers, and president trump's position is enough, enough. reporter: by the way, the european union, neil, not commenting on the latest tweet from the president. they say what was expressed by their leaders earlier this week still stands. the president tweeted out this morning that he thinks republicans as it relates to immigration should stand pat, stand by and wait until the

november elections shake themselves out to end up taking something legislative on immigration because as the president sees it, he believes the republicans are going to gain votes in the house and the senate come november. however, kevin mccarthy, the number two in the house just a little while ago said on the house floor that republicans will take up the compromise bill on immigration next week. neil? neil: thank you, my friend. covered a lot of ground there. in the meantime, all of this position on trade, delayed votes that are going to come even though the president says skip it all until the midterms. it is confusing, to james freeman and crtv host ally stuckey. ally, begin with you, what you make of the cross-currents, so focused on china, obviously, to the point blake was making, looking at the eu, canada's response and follow-up measures, mexico in kind,

india, so it's spreading. what's the sense that you're getting? . >> well, the big question is, of course, is are voters paying attention, and if they are paying attention, do they care about this. our relationship is dominated by mexico and what's happening at the border? president trump might be right about the red wave or at the very least everything that going on isn't going to hurt republicans long term. there are a lot of republicans against tariffs and against everything at the border, the polls show that. the polls have not changed on oapproval of the gop and our approval of president trump. so we still have a long time until the midterms. i think all the turmoil that's going on right now, largely will not affect the republicans come in of. neil: james, you follow wall street very closely, and the best i can surmise here is they don't think it will turn into a full-blown trade war, i don't think they do, because then it would be evident in careening

markets, so far not. what do you make of that? >> yeah, i think stocks are registering concern. trade fights are certainly not pro-growth, but i think it was very helpful for you to point out that the chinese stock market has been hit a lot harder than the u.s. stock market which is trending sideways amid this concern. i think the tax cuts and the deregulation effort by the president within our borders is much more powerful to this point in driving the economy higher. we see that corporate investment going up, then the potential on the trade side, which to this point is of concern, but not a huge impact on our economy. neil: you think just the opposite, right, dan? >> well, i think that the market would have gone down if it disagreed with the trade tariffs. i think the trade tariffs are brilliant. i said that months ago. the other countries around the world have been doing this for many years and trump is playing

against them with when they're doing. so it's going to continue to escalate. the eu will raise, we'll raise and the eu will raise, and out of control. this is interesting, neil, talking about the voting coming up in the elections. i think that it's going to be the same as the presidential election, people are afraid to admit they're going to vote republican, that they're going to come out of polls saying they didn't and the polls prove, the results prove that they did. and i think that the stock market would be much lower at this point, based on what president trump is talking about with raising these tariffs and threats, especially this morning. if you look at when the tweet came out, the market dropped and went right back up again. the market doesn't care about the tariffs because they don't think it's going to materialize. neil: saying from the beginning, and alley, that's the hope, we've been worried before, we've been convinced that we didn't have to worry before so giving him the

benefit of the doubt. what are you looking for when you talk to conservatives in general who generally agree with the president's approach on tariffs, that we've been taken advantage of, pardon my french here, but high tide we responding to the way we are. what do you think? >> most conservatives don't agree with his approach on tariffs. i think we agree in theory that this is not fair, this has been going on far too long. we are being taken advantage of. how can we fight back. at the same time, we haven't seen tariffs work in the past. steel tariffs in 2002 for president bush did not work well for americans. resulted in the loss of 400,000 jobs. what conservatives are afraid of is all of the economic advancement from tax cuts, et cetera, is that going to be reversed by the tariffs? we just don't know as a negotiation tactic, maybe it's great, but in actual practice for the american worker, i'm just not sure how it's going to

manifest itself. neil: james, if they never come to pass, companies always have to worry about the possibility that something happens, and so they don't know exactly how it all sorts out, so they get pretty conservative with their cash, right? they get conservative with the exception of media companies buying other properties, right? >> yeah, i think it is a disincentive to investment. coupled with a lot of very strong incentives that have come out of washington. so i think maybe the investment is not quite what it would be now but it's very strong, and this is a good economy and that's good for trump politically. i think the big question and where you would see markets turn is on this issue of is the president trying to permanently manage our trade relationships and decide what deficits should be and how much we ought to import and export. if people decide that's where here going, i think you would see the markets decline significantly. i think a lot of people are thinking this is an effort to

get everyone to lower their tariffs, and if that is the result and that's the message he had at the g7 summit, let's go to the no-tariff zone and germany is embracing, that would be good for the markets if he pulled it off, if he got more open markets, especially in china. neil: dan, in the end, looking at the fundamentals of this market, do you think it's a rich market? >> yes, neil, i've been discussing that, it's an artificial market generated by our federal reserve and other factors, but i don't know if you want to go there with all that right now. yes, i think this market is way out of control and what they're telling us about the banking system, the safe and that the derivatives market is safe, i just don't agree with that from the research they do. and i think that eventually this is going to come to roost, and everybody saying it's going to be the tariffs and not the tariffs, it's going to be the slowdown that starts coming, and i've seen, that and spoken neil about this, the spread between the 30-year, the 10

year and the 2-year treasuryries are rapidly declining to a flat level, telling us a major recession is coming in, and i feel it could be a depression. neil: whoa, i hope you're wrong on that. you are right to cite the fact we are seeing narrowing and flattening yield which presses at the least. we'll watch it closely. everybody, thank you very, very much. >> thank you. neil: a lot of people would worry about a recession or depression, and obviously retailers and big box retailers. big store retailers. believe it or not, they might have been beneficiaries from the supreme court ruling yesterday. the read from former j.c. penney ceo on the ruling and the notion that the consumer is back and barring a recession or worse, will remain back, after this. ♪

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i'm 85 years old in a job where. i have to wear a giant hot dog suit. what? where's that coming from? i don't know. i started my 401k early, i diversified... i'm not a big spender. sounds like you're doing a lot. but i still feel like i'm not gonna have enough for retirement. like there's something else i should be doing. with the right conversation, you might find you're doing okay. so, no hot dog suit? not unless you want to. no. schedule a complimentary goal planning session today with td ameritrade®. . neil: all right, a lot of talk back and forth whether the supreme court decision yesterday that sort of opened online sales to every state in the nation, and you can't dodge it no matter who you are, no matter how big you are, no matter how small you are, the fallout on consumers and whether they are inclined to buy or as much been on a tear lately. hillary vaughn with the latest on that.

hey, hillary. reporter: neil, now online retailer, overstock.com, etsy and ebay are asking for congress to step in and make an exception for small and microbusinesses from the state internet sales tax. overstock.com executive jonathan johnson says lawmakers need to protect small internet businesses so online entrepreneurs can thrive. 35 state attorneys general were pushing for the internet sales tax ban to be overturned. now that it is, they're working to implement a sales tax of their own in corresponding states, that means there were at least 35 different tax codes that the companies, the small internet vendors need to grapple with. a big payout for states to cash in on the supreme court's decision. government accountability office says the government can make 8 to $13 billion in state revenue, that cost is going to be pushed down to consumers. sales tax as high as 10% in

louisiana and not to mention some small internet vendors that sell on etsy and ebay, are worried they may get squeezed out entirely because they can't afford to hire an accountant to work through the individual tax code, so how this will work, online only retailers say congress should work out the details. neil? neil: hillary, thank you very much. get the readout from former j.c. penney chairman alan quest rom, whatever you make of the macroeffects of brick and mortar guys like his old company, could this be very good. he joins us on the phone. alan, good to have you on the phone. explain. >> good to be with you. not just good for bricks and mortar, good for cities and states and customers in the long run because i do believe this is something that was put in i think 26 years ago, and it was supposed to only be for a few years and now 26 or so years later, when they put it in, neil, like a $200 million

business, the internet, and now half a trillion dollars. it's a big business does, 10% of our business. it would be very unfair to continue it, and i think what happens is now it's good for bricks and mortar, good for small stores in the town and good for customers because now everybody pays the same fair share, and i think if they hadn't done, that you would be seeing states raising sales taxes and that would be good for -- not good for the 90% of purchases and puts everything in a competitive field. i'm in the furniture store business and live in one state. you shipped me from another state because you are wayfair or whatever it is, you don't charge me a tax but local store has to. that's not a fair process. so i think it's very good for retailers and for the most part, it will be evened out, so it's not going to be real negative, i don't believe, for the internet commerce. and remember, neil, most every

retailer today that's bricks and mortar -- neil: i was going to raise that with you. they built up elaborate web operations and successful ones. >> neiman marcus, 35% of business is now that. neil: is that right? wow. >> yeah, yeah. neil: that begs the question how long? whether it's online or traditional brick and mortar, you go to a mall. people talk about the death of malls and miami build the world's largest mall, different features, playground, more movie theaters and restaurants. they haven't given up on the concept here. what do you make of that, the way we look at shopping, the way we look where people congregate to do that and more is changing, but not necessarily the end of the world? >> for sure is not the end of the world. those who predicts the bricks and mortar are gone are living in make-believe world. people still like to socialize. they do find convenience by

going on the internet. when you want to buy apparel or things that have sizing and colors that you can't necessarily visualize on your screen, it makes a big difference when you go to the store, you see it, particularly if you have good sales associates, which i think is becoming a strange part of our business today, but i think the reason malls have not done well is we built too many of them, distracted from one another and i think many of the malls we're not keeping up to date, and many of the stores including mine we're not keeping them up to date, making them exciting and places people wanted to go thomp the challenge for all retailers, just like anything in the capitalistic tune, if you don't keep moving forward, you are going to go out of business. a lot of the stores have responded with the negatives in 2016 and 17 and make the store look better. they have a way to go. a store needs to be a place of

excitement that customers want to go. neil: i agree with you, i agree with the old saw rising economic tide would lift all boats and wondering what you make of this comeback in consumer spending? lot of it buoyed by lower taxes, optimism, very low unemployment rate. more jobs than there are workers to fill them. that's an enviable position to be in. do you see that continue? >> people think it's not going to go past a year or two, i think a lot further than that. i think the current administration is much more pro-capitalism. when people feel the government is on their side instead of against them, they have a lot more optimism, and i would not be surprised because also that the way you can depreciate capital investments today is going to make people more willing to invest, and when people feel secure about the future or more secure, they're willing to take chances on the long run. neil: what about tariffs and lot of items they get,

including in stores like j.c. penney, could jump in price? >> i'm of the beliefs that the tariffs will not be along. i think you will see a correction in terms of way people import and tariffs on goods coming in. that will be good for americans coming. i do not believe most of the tariffs stick unless a country or company is taking advantage by the government giving special deals to keep prices low. and i think, tariffs should be done on an individual basis, not on a countrywide basis, and where an industry feels that are taken advantage by a foreign government, they should do it by product. so i don't really think they're going to be long lasting, and they won't be long lasting where countries have taken advantage and i think china has taken advantage and particularly less so canada and mexico and many of the euro countries. neil: all of those countries are involved. >> they are involved in it, i

think he's been broad-based and i think they do have issues where they have been unfair, once you get fair practice, and i agree with mr. trump, there should be no tariffs. neil: it should be the goal? >> that should be the goal. neil: have a nice weekend, always nice talking to you. >> always a pleasure listening to your voice. neil: the former j.c. penney chairman and ceo. energy stocks are doing very, very well, how can they be doing on an output deal that increases the output that would send oil prices going south? that would not be good for them. here's the thing, it's not sending oil prices going south. in fact, it's not such a bearish deal for oil in general or for those companies. we'll explain after this. nings n once again. >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out.

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dow jones up arrow of 161, and taking a look at some of the winners. chevron and exxon as energy moves higher. in fact, the oil field services indexes is up nearly 5%, the highest in a couple of weeks as opec says they're going to pump out more. but the idea behind it is, one, it may not be enough to meet global demand and, two, still facing oil supply issues from venezuela and also libya. taking a look at the markets this week, all three of the major averages are to the downside as caterpillar and boeing, that goes back to our trade worries that everybody's been talking about are among the biggest laggards. and for this, fear not, june is looking pretty good. up arrows, the s&p 500 up 2%, the nasdaq up 3.5%, and we've seen some volatility in those automakers today. this as president trump now once again threatening tariffs, in this case 20% u.s. tariffs on e.u. car imbolters if the trade barriers -- imports if the trade barriers are not lifted.

automakers have dropped on the news, but they are down for the week. back in the green. neil, back to you. neil: nicole, thank you very much. have a good weekend. we mentioned before a few more details, the energy secretary, rick perry, is going to meet with the russian oil minister, so kind of his counterpart next week in washington. they're discussing oil and, presumably, efforts to bring down those prices. remember, it was the president a couple weeks back who had urged opec to increase production to bring up prices. he had urged at the time maybe a million barrels a day to increase production. this accord that was sort of written off on by opec members today increases by a little less than that, about 600,000 barrels, and that is why, among other things, oil prices are rising and oil stocks are more than holding their own. to america first policy adviser dan ever hart on what this could portend. very good to have you. >> thank you for having me back. neil: so what do you see happening here?

>> what i think the story is here is that the 600-700,000 barrel increase that was agreed to today, i think, is a little bit -- pretty much a mild, a mild tonic here. so worldwide demand increased a million seven barrels last year, this year the projection is a million four increase, so i really think a 6-700,000 barrel a day increase is not going to mop up the additional demand created this year. so i think it portends a tighter market and flat to rising oil prices. neil: you think they anticipated that and they're okay with it? >> i think they did anticipate it. i think they're a little bit not okay with it, but i think iran has been dragging its heels. you know, really opec is a tale of two cities. you've got saudi arabia, the uae and i kuwait that have more capacity and then kind of russia over on the side. but most of the rest of opec don't have any additional capacity they can add right now. and then you've got production falling precipitously in venezuela, in libya and in

algeria. neil: so the only thing that could reverse this in a world where demand is beating out supply is if a trade war comes and all of a sudden that doesn't happen. that's a hard imponderable to look at right now, but what do you make of that? >> yeah. i think a little bit these guys have got to think more fourth dimensionally than in the past. i think if you look at all the trade friction that president trump is leading, i think that could potentially destabilize, you know, the economic growth, and that could push the demand growth down, and then maybe you got a little more balance in the oil markets and can the guidance would be a little more flat to down. neil: are you surprised, we had the uptick in gas prices, that it didn't lead to a freeze or even a slowdown in suv and gas guzzler sales, for want of a better term, that either americans can deal with this or they think this will pass over or they're fine?

>> well, i think it's really much more correlated to, you know, how they're feeling in their pocketbook, overall consumer sentiment and their, you know, whether their personal income is going up matters a little bit more than the actual price of gasoline in terms of what's correlated to what. neil: so the fundamentals still favor strong prices. >> i think so. you know, look, in 2015, '16 and '17 the capital investment in the oil and gas industry was about half of what it was in '12, '13 and '14, and you've got demand growth still the bust and continuing into '17 and '18. i think that portends a tighter market and oil rising in the medium term. neil: dan, thank you very much, good read on things. dan eberhart. we have a lot more coming up including trying to get the latest on where this immigration bill is and where it stands. this is the so-called moderate

one that they kicked to next week, and then there was thought, well, it's going to be kicked even further. the president wants to just forget about the whole immigration thing until republicans, in his words, can beef up their numbers in congress. he's obviously optimistic republicans will do that. but a big republican ignored him. kevin mccarthy saying, no, we're going to vote on this measure, our last desperate hope, if you will, to try to reclaim the initiative, get back on offense. after this. ♪ ♪ how do you win at business? stay at laquinta. where we're changing with contemporary make-overs. then, use the ultimate power handshake, the upper hander with a double palm grab. who has the upper hand now? start winning today.

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♪ ♪ neil: all right, if at first you don't succeed in washington, can we try at least one more time? after shooting down what was a conservative immigration measure, they're going to try one that has a more moderate approach next week. now, the president told them, the heck with it, we're going nowhere fast, let's just deal with this after the midterms and i think we'll have stronger numbers. obviously, the house majority

leader, kevin mccarthy, thinking this is the time to strike, and he might have luck next week. the president tweeting about it. we're going to to get into the tweet and all this, where it portends for the political situation and the parties and those midterm elections. washington staff writer, joel wegman and axios reporter steph kite. steph, end with you and begin with you. does this measure have any more likelihood of doing welch than the one that was shot down -- well than the one that was shot down? >> it has a greater likelihood of doing well than the more conservative bill which failed this week, but it's still not certain it has enough votes. i think, actually, if you talk to people, the fact they're deciding to push this vote back maybe signals they're more optimistic of votes in favor of this bill. neil: alex, say what you will of the controversial provisions, the other one got 193 votes. that's surprising. >> it is surprising, and i think that does tie back to conservative members and a lot

of people in the republican party are trying to get their base to vote for them again come november. so i think that that's what we're seeing here, is people are just trying to appeal back to their constituents. neil: you know, bill, let's say they were to succeed and the house votes for it, i guess they could say on record we did. it's probably not going to happen with the senate, but we did this, right? >> that's what you hear from a lot of these house guys. they always talk about moving something over to the senate, they're always very frustrated with the upper chamber. i think that a lot of frustration though for a lot of incumbents is definitely going to rest with the president. he can't even get on the same page. three days ago he said that the crisis down at the border right now was democrats' fault, and now this morning he says don't even bother with this. so until he's on the same page, i don't see any significant traction moving forward. neil: you know, steph, another thing i've heard from folks is that theth president firmly believes this will not ban electoral issue, this will not

drag the party down, best to forget it and not keep reminding them of their failing and go on the economy that's doing well, markets that, by and large, have been doing well and leaf it to that. and leave it to that. and don't remind people at the end of the day that there have been these failures on this front. >> we've also seen the president push for this. again, this has been a huge turn-around from the president all week on his stance on immigration. neil: yeah, but he didn't want the embarrassment of these images, right? i can well understand that. but i don't know if i would read any more wider, grander schemes to get immigration legislation done because he's reading the political tea leaves probably and saying with the numbers the way they are, i don't see it happening, right? >> well, of course the economy has always been the most important issue for voters -- neil: right. >> if you look at studies over the years, that is the most important issue. but we are seeing these immigration issues over and over again in the media and pushback on these issues, and i think this is why the president has

decided to sign the executive order this week and tried to separate himself from the harrowing images we're seeing in the media from these detention centers. and he's saying that, okay, i did something. and now that he has fixed the problem to a certain extent, he's saying that congress doesn't have the same pressure that he was putting on them before now. neil: you know, guys, and you're closer to washington than i'll ever be in understanding how it works, but my vibes i'm getting both sides hate each other. they loathe each other. i had a california democratic congressman who says, you know, it's very clear that donald trump hates kids, that he wants to punish kids. i don't know how you get past that. the president doesn't comport himself very well when he says they're losers and they lie and all that. now, i know things get tense and vitriolic, and that's washington and that's the way it is, but, man, i cannot see progress being made on that front in this environment anytime soon. alex, am i reading that too cynically or what?

>> yeah, i think the fact that no democrats wanted to sign on to the so-called compromise bill is pretty telling in the house. obviously, donald trump has had some pretty aggressive tweets this week, but then democrats have been on the attacking front as well. so there is a huge divide. i mean, immigration is always going to be an issue that's, that splits party lines, and i think what's really interesting is that republicans are having trouble bringing their caucus together regardless of what the democrats are going to say. they might not even be able to get the votes among themselves. i mean, the moderates and the freedom caucus are not aligning with the -- neil: no, we had that indelible image of, you know, congressman meadows and paul ryan going at each other. but, bill, i'm wondering if the way this is going that the president might be right to wait out the possibility that there are going to be greater republican numbers, which would go against history, but that's clearly what he's betting on.

>> it's a huge bet to make right now because you know and i know that the closer november comes to rolling around we are going to see so many democrats flood the zone with political ads that show those detained kids behind that chain-link fence. and i get that the president's base wants him to be tough on immigration, i get that he promised that he was going to bring law and order to the border, but i think that what, you know, the base wants is they want those ms-13 members that we heard so much about, they want them to cry, not these kids. is so if republicans don't get, you know, a solution to that specific problem or don't at least make a good faith effort at getting an immigration bill passed, i think this comes back to haunt them in november. neil: really? that's very interesting. guys, thank you all very, very much. we will know soon enough. again, they are going to try to get a measure up for a vote next week. even if that were to pass, getting it to the senate even with the senate in session likely in august, that might be tough. but, you know, anything can

happen in washington and with this president, usually does. up 182 points. when we come back, looking at the possibility of a trade war, whether we can withstand that and whether americans in the middle of all that will still go to the movies, because amc has a plan for you. after this. two, down, back up!

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♪ ♪ neil: you like going to the movies? well, does amcing have a plan for you. -- amc have a plan for you. adam shapiro, how does this go? >> reporter: keep in mind the competition between movie pass and the just-announced amc stubs a-list may save cinema fans money at the box office. hollywood, though, the studios worry they're going to lose some big dollars. amc theaters, the nation's largest chain, announced that new discount subscription service. it costs $19.95 a month. it will allow you to see three films a week, and that includes 3-d and imax flicks. movie pass costs $9.95 a month, this is their competitor. it allows you to watch one movie a day, but they just announced a $2 surcharge to popular films and imax or 3-d flicks.

hollywood studios get their normal cut. it usually averages about 60%. the amc discount plan may cost the studios big bucks because it's going to determine the studios' cut based on a ticket price of just $8.99, and that's a lot less than the current deal. in fact, amc's average ticket price nationwide is $9.78. and in large cities like new york city, the average ticket price is $15, but good luck finding that. let's push it to $20. "the wall street journal" claims the new discount plan will be profitable and those profits will be shared with the studios. uh-huh, and i've got a bridge to sell you in brooklyn. movie pass has three million subscribers, and here comes amc. by the way, this all starts tuesday. neil: do you have to physically be at the theater, you know what i mean? are there requirements you can get this in advance and not worry about getting it at the theater -- >> reporter: you can buy them

online. it's going to be you can buy the tickets online, all of that. or if you're a fan of solo, just wait for it to be on television because it's going to be there yesterday. neil: we can only hope. thank you very much, adam shapiro. we talk about all of this and whether people would be inclined to want to do something like that. they have been spending op dinners out and on movies, they have been splurging on a lot of things they have not done typically in the past, buoyed by the tax cuts and more optimism about their economic future. market watcher ed mills is with us and economist john lonski. john, what do you see of that momentum in the backdrop here not only for those who want to go to the movies, but for those going out? these numbers have picked up considerably. >> yeah. i think second quarter growth is going to be close to 4%, but i believe that'sen sustainable mostly because it's been -- that's unsustainable. unless we see some surge in

employment-related income, we're perhaps going to level off for real consumer spending at a pace just under 3% which is darn good and should extend the economic expansion which will be good for payrolls and will have positive implications for the november elections as far as the incumbent is concerned. neil: you know, ed mills, one of the things that's been mentioned a lot is the strength of the economy, the quarter we're in. i think the atlanta fed said it could easily be 4.5%. the atlanta fed has been wrong before on this sort of stuff, but it's obviously convinced it will be stronger than past quarters in quite a while. do you agree with that? >> i think that is a base case right now when you look at the tax cuts. normally after you cut revenues you cut expenditures. what congress did is they did another $400 billion worth of spending that wasn't anticipated for this year and next year. you have 900% -- 100% depreciation of cap-ex for businesses and a whole bunch of

foreign earnings coming back from overseas. so when you do tax cuts, repatriation, more fiscal stimulus, that's probably the formula for economic growth. at least in the near term. neil: so a lot of these companies that have been turning out these great quarterly reports and numbers and a momentum that will be sustained, i they say, you know, for the rest of this year, you buy that? >> so far, yes. i mean, i think that the big question for me and part of the reason why i think the stock market is as up as it's been since the 2016 election is the fiscal stimulus coming out of d.c. as well as the deregulatory agenda. the biggest thing that threatens that is the trade agenda, tariff uncertainty, geoprettier caloriesing. geopolitical risk. so while we have really good highs right now, what could hit folks in the pocketbook are some of these trade wars that trump seems to want to start. neil: you know, john lonski, on the trade thing there's a flip sue that's out there in the bullish case that despite the

higher prices to come but because of the slowdown that will likely create, the federal reserve is less inclined to hike rates as much. do you buy that? >> well, you know, we don't want to lose our focus on what's going on in the interest rate front. if we have a situation develop where interest rates take off, that could slow down the economy considerably, you know? i think what we found lately is that we've had these rate hikes, we have the ten-year treasury yield briefly go above 3%, but we had negative responses abroad especially as far as emerging market countries are concerned. so it might well be that because of a still slack global economy the upside for treasury bond yields is limited and as a result we might be looking at stronger than expected growth related to credit domestically. that being said, the housing sector is performing miserably in terms of stock price

performance. the last time i looked that's down by more than 10%, 10-15% for the year to date, largely because investors are worried about the ability of housing to shoulder this possibility of a prolonged the stay by a ten-year yield above 3%. neil: yeah. but we would have clawed for those times when we were younger, right? >> that's true. but today things are a lot different. neil: no, no, you're absolutely right. >> as i mentioned earlier, look at that personal savings rate. how can you have inflation take off at a recurring fashion when perhaps one-third to 40% of u.s. households have zero savings? when these households see prices move higher, they only have one choice and that is to cut back on some type of consumer spending, some type of -- neil: interesting. >> -- discretionary spending. neil: ed, let me raise a wildcard with you. i'm curious what you make of it, and that is that we're all wrong on this building consensus that republicans are going to lose

control of the house. my view is they lose a few seats, but they don't lose the house, they actually add seats in the senate, so that is contrarian, i grant you. how would the markets react to that. >> i think it would be positive. one of the jokes in d.c. right now is democrats haven't been as confident about an election since the 2016 election. now, i do think the base case is a republican majority in the senate given where the map is, but i do think the base case is a democratic majority in the house. neil: even now with everything else, all the improving numbers, everything, you still see that? >> well, i think a large part of this is going to be based upon kind of enthusiasm among democratic voters and kind of where some of the seats are. but i think that's a good outcome for the market, and i think the market would also look to a good outcome with a republican majority. you're looking at the continuation of the deregulatory agenda if the republicans maintain control of the senate because all of the confirmations go through the senate -- neil: no, i know, but you lose

the house or they're in charge of the house, the democrats, obviously whether you're on the right or the left, it's going to get ornery with impeachment hearings -- >> it's ornery now. neil: you're actually right about that. i'm just wondering what you make, john, of the possibility republicans hang on to both houses. >> they hang on to both houses provided that donald trump does not shoot himself in the foot regarding these issues concerning international trade. that worries me. you have, you know, some companies right now are perhaps holding back on investment spending. you might be seeing less in terms of very important foreign direct investment. that's overseas companies building production facilities in the united states because of worries about what might become of tariffs. so it's of critical importance that trump keeps his head about himself as far as what's going on with tariffs and what not. and if that's the case, i see the unemployment rate under 3.5% come november, and it would be

almost impossible for the republicans to lose control of both houses. neil: well, i'll burn the tape if i'm wrong, but i see them hanging on. but, guys, this conversation never happened. if it doesn't go my way. >> all right. neil: thank you both. i hope you have a wonderful weekend. the dow's up 193 points. they must have heard what we were saying. more after this. ♪ ♪ brighthouse financial allow you to take advantage of growth opportunities... with a level of protection in down markets. so you can be less concerned about your retirement savings. talk with your advisor about shield annuities from brighthouse financial- established by metlife. captured lightning in a bottle. over 260 years later as the nation's leader in energy storage we're ensuring americans have the energy they need, whenever they need it nextera energy. this scientist doesn't believe in luck.

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♪ ♪ neil: all right, take a look at the dow 30 stocks right now. we've got about 26 of the 30 up, the dow itself up about 190 points. not too shabby there. let's see if trish can hold this. the pressure's on, trish. trish: i got it! i got it, bring it on, neil. [laughter] all right, on this friday we're up almost 200. breaking right now, the president is set to speak on immigration this hour as he blasts democrats for refusing to work with republicans in order to fix our broken immigration system. all of this as investors are shrugging off those concerns about a trade war, that whole sag a georgia that continues to tick on -- saga that continues to tick on as e.u. tariffs on iconic u.s. goods go into effect today. you sure wouldn't know it by this market. i'm trish regan. welcome, everyone, to "the intelligence report. ". ♪ ♪ trish: president trump