georgia. when do they know when to evacuate? when will they hear? stuart: dilemma and a half for sure. market lost much of the gain but still up about 50 points. neil, it is yours, sir. neil: stuart, thank you very, very much. we're trying to unravel what is happening on corner of broad and wall, heavy optimism about 20 minutes ago, maybe not even, proposing trade talks with china. why would we do that if china is not making initiative on its own? maybe we're having doubts about it. maybe the president blinking in the face of this who knows. too much picking apart information at its best, thinly-sourced but i pass that along there. meantime, nothing thinly-sourced about this, this monster storm florence. the only question when it is going to hit and what kind of power it will pack when it does. it cover as broad swath of the

east coast and southeast coast. more to the point, north carolina, south carolina, virginia. it seems to be bearing a little more south than we earlier heard. that does not mean millions of people are not in harm's way here. many have been told to get away from the coast, 1 1/2 million to be exact. jeff flock is in moorhead city, north carolina with how folks there are preparing. sir? reporter: what had been a hotbed of activity, the lowe's and the walmart. this is the lowe's right here. as you can see, no activity now. all boarded. in fact the boards, two by fours, four-by-fours, blocking doors of the lowe's and adjoining walmart. these companies do well in storms. that is boarded as well. if you hadn't gotten what you need for hurricane now, two words, tough and luck. tough luck for you. you see pictures of folks making their way out? this has gone remarkably well the evacuation from all along the coast. but i caution, a lot of people

haven't left. we joked just the other day. you saw how this track, neil has moved in the last hour. even farther to the south. we joked earlier, well, if you get out of the way of this thing you will have to go to georgia. if you went to georgia it is following you. we are on our way ourselves down farther south from here. we are, we had been in atlantic beach. now moorhead city, going down to carolina beach. this is a huge storm. you want to stay, if you're covering it on the sloppy side of it, or the dirty side if you will or the most powerful side, where we'll be down in caroline beach. i don't think people have seen -- i have been through bertha and floyd and, can't think of the other one, fran here. these were not cat-3 or cat-4 storms. even if this weakens and comes in at cat-3, this is something they haven't seen literally in decades. neil.

neil: jeff, be safe, my friend. thank you very, very much. flock. they don't know exactly the point of contact here, but it's a worry just the same. for a large swath of the u.s. population you could be in the bullseye of this thing even though you're not anywhere near the bullseye of this thing. accuweather founder, president, joel myers. what do you think, joel? >> yeah, the storm is a powerful storm. it is a cat-4 storm and heading right to the carolinas. the thing is, it will slow down as it approaches the coast. and so the, it will weaken somewhat before it comes ashore and since it is moving so slowly, possible the eye will not come ashore until actually saturday morning that would be near the north carolina, south carolina border. if anything as you pointed out, when it comes to the coast it is drifting somewhat south. normally hurricanes when they

come to the carolina coast, are heading north. sometimes northeast along the coastline. if anything, this will be opposite. what will come ashore in the carolinas, probably right near the border. officially could come in north carolina or will cause a lot of damage. we are estimating the total damage from the storm at 55 to $60 billion. there have been estimates of 170, 190 billion. we think that is an extreme. but still will be a catastrophic storm. much of the damage will be caused by heavy rain, up to 30 inches. extreme local points, perhaps up to 40 inches. along the coast, because of the fetch and slow movement, the ocean is going to do damage on the north carolina coast, probably on the, much more

threat to south carolina than virginia. although in the mountains of virginia and along the coast there will be some effects from the hurricane of course. but it is interesting, once it comes inland, it will be moving almost due west. breaking up in western south carolina, western north carolina. so the main, of course causes of damage, along the coast from the sea, starting tomorrow, particularly friday and saturday, and then from heavy rains. rains will begin tomorrow, continue right into sunday. so torrential rains in places will cause flooding. there has been saturated ground from previous rains. so a lot of new rain will run off. there will be a lot of it, and of course from winds. it is conceivable it may weaken to category one when it crosses the shoreline, you will have winds of 90 miles an hour, gusts perhaps to 120 as it comes to

shore. when you add the wind effect that causes damage to areas that will not experience this kind of wind in a couple of decades. neil: is there any possibility, one of the models i saw meteorologists using that it ricochets, bounces off the coast. still hangs for a lot of damaging rains, sandy-like, if you will. that was one of the possible trajectories. is that likely in your eyes? >> well, we've seen, said right along, it will come to the coast, slow down, almost stall. then it can wobble in current place or wobble somewhat to the south. eventually it will come ashore saturday, we're quite confident of that. as it sits there whether right offshore or right on land, certainly still close enough to the ocean it won't weaken rapidly. there is a tremendous amount of onshore wind, north of the center. obviously the rain will just

continue, and so whether the exact center is offshore or right on line, it will not make a lot of difference. the areas to be affected are pretty well-understood at this point. it could actually drift even further south. could affect atlanta. neil: wow, amazing. thank you very, very, very much, joel myers, accuweather founder, chairman. because of that always moving target range have opted to put off evacuations or ignore them all together. red cross spokesperson jonathan mcnamara on that. jonathan, that is something you guys worry about because a lot of people hear now, oh, go south, go south. so a lot of my friends did. now they're right in the track of this thing. so they say good thing i don't leave. good thing i'm not leaving. what do you tell those people? >> absolutely. that is why this is such a massive mobilization for the american red cross. we're working up across multiple

states to open up evacuation shelters. at the local and state level. we encourage listen to the alerts with your meteorologist as well as local meteorologist and government officials telling you to evacuate. our shelters are available in the free emergency app. it is in the app store. it is not too late for viewers to prepare. that is emergency preparedness kit. food, water, medications, important documents, things you need to withstand the storm. neil: is it just best of the advice, keep going west, keep going inland? >> yeah. you're going to know your personal situation the best. that is why those local officials in your community will giving warnings will tell you where is the best location for to you get safe. getting as far away from the storm as you can get you in the best situation. that is the evacuation shelters, they will be available in communities across areas that will eventually be impacted. we'll have red cross volunteers

working side by side with our partners to support efforts to make sure people have a safe place to go. neil: what is the rule of thumb, you just touched on a couple of things, people likely without power and likely a few days at a minimal, what do you tell them? >> first, that is what that emergency kit. think three days, supply of food, water, medication, flashlights. noaa weather alert radio allows to you stay in contact with the local officials. if you get extra cell phone battery pack will allow electronic devices to charge. as well as personal items for the pacific family needs. pet supplies. infant supplies. doing that now, benefit after hurricane, you have time to prepare. doing so puts you in much better situation. evacuate when you're told. dramatic images in houston and florida, people didn't get out. that is when rescue workers put themselves in dangerous situation to get in. it could take days to do so. heed the evacuation warnings,

get to a safe place. neil: well-put, jonathan. thank you. thank you for all you're doing. people in affected areas thank you as well. to jonathan's point, people are saying fema is world of financial hurt. it is borrowing peter to pay paul. all those stories are true. the fact when an emergency comes up, they manufacture the money, find a way of addressing later on. it is in the a worry. you heard a lot about the flood insurance program itself, separate entity from fema as distinct entity. that is $20 billion in debt. congress spent on disaster relief, including last year, all the hurricanes and fires that have occurred, certainly out on the west coast, $120 billion, far exceeding the amount of money that these institutions have on hand but they keep spending it. they will keep addressing it. this idea in the middle of this they just can't pay out, it is not going to happen. what you have got to do if

you're in the affected areas is protect yourself, not worry about whether monies or rescues will be there. they will, but first things first. like your life and your families. more after this. nah. not gonna happen.

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neil: all right. apple's big event where it debuts, annual sort of phenomenon. new products or innovation notice products. that we're told will be evolutionary than revolutionary. that being said, people look at glorified commercials for apple. technically they are. this company is increasingly become a proxy, barometer on consumer spending, consumer spending plans, as it goes often times it guess the economy so get as little bit disproportionate interest. hillary vaughn is outside of apple headquarters with the latest what we can expect in 45 minutes. hillary? reporter: neil, less than an hour from now we're expecting apple to introduce the world to the biggest, most expensive iphone ever. here is what we know. the names of the new iphone x lineup leaking on apple's site map earlier today. tech blogging thinking heavy hitter is the iphone xs max. that will have 6.8-inch display,

and rumored starting price of $1100. making its priciest iphone on the shelf. we're getting a sneak-peek what the rest of the phones look up, popping online before the reveal today. apple is expected to roll out something for consumers looking to grab high-tech at a lower price. budget friendly sibling to the iphone x xmas. apple will standardize some high-tech features in iphone x like facial recognition which will be available in landscape mode. that is some of the reports floating around, a bigger edge to edge display with no home button and also some new colors. or the hardware expecting to get upbraid, apple's airpod iphones could go waterproof. featuring larger display screen, that also leaking online. there are 44-millimeter display, that is the biggest ever. both devices could see a price

markup as apple's tim cook said china tariffs are hitting those devices and will have a ripple effect on the overall price. tim look last year, teased air power, a wireless charging mat t hasn't hit shelves yet. we may get more details about potential launch for that in stores. neil? neil: hillary, thank you very, very much. despite all the hoopla, attention given apple, the fact of the matter, in the smartphone market, worldwide it significantly trails rival samsung with a host of products. very expensive products. galaxy note has 6.4-inch screen. this hopefully one apple says it can top with a larger screen than that. having said all of that. there are a variety of samsung galaxy devices, sx plus. there are lot more of them in the hands of people in asia and a lot more popular which accounts for the worldwide market share. let's get the view from market watch tech editor jeremy owens

whether that dynamic will change with these announcements today. what do you think, jeremy? >> i don't think so. i think apple is always going to be a kind of a niche high-end product. that is why you see them step up the price. if the reports are true the 10 x max will start $1100. that is more revenue and profit for the apple. they will command most of the profit and most of the revenue because their phones are so much more expensive and so much better margin. neil: used to be a 1000-dollar threshold was a big deal when we got apple up to that level, souped-up phone with all the memory you could get, et cetera. samsung crossed it with similarly loaded galaxy s plus. north of 1200 if you throw in everything, obviously people are buying at that price point but does it cannibalize all other things? >> well, i don't think so. i think if you have the entire

line up you can go ahead and say we've got something for everybody. everybody that wants something can find a phone, right? apple has not found a way to stop selling iphones yet. neil: you're right about that. in fact they're all succeeding. you could make the argument samsung with galaxy offerings and google phones and the rest, there are a lot of them, and there are a lot of customers for them. apple has this niche appeal here. do you hear anything changing in the dynamics you heard today? >> only thing change something the rise of the chinese manufacturers in huawei and and huawei looks like they have gone ahead of apple in overall market share worldwide. the question is, if they are going to battle them and samsung at same time as well as all others coming forth. neil: some of the another announcements we're told of maybe a new ipad offering be revamped watch that might be not physically larger but the screen

itself will be larger, might offer heart tracker, hard-based tracker, will that change the dynamics any? >> i don't know, we'll have to see, apple watch when they added cellular capabilities in the last version, that was supposed to be at big game-changer got this to be a more common consumer device. wee we haven't seen that yet. the series one may have outsold the series three this last quarter. the game has inreally changed. we'll see if they have anything to change that. neil: my problem with the apple watch, you have to constantly charge it. maybe i get a day or two tops out of it. and for a lot of people that want it monitoring when they sleep, all that other stuff, if they could address that, they could go a long way addressing inroads, for example samsung made in the same arena, maybe

not, but it is an annoying thing to me the battery power issue, what do you think? >> for sure. that is the complaint on everyone of these events that they have they're talking about the thinness. we're two millimeters thinner and our screen is nicer and brighter. then the battery is still the same if not worse because it is supporting the thinness and the brighter screen and nicer screen and everything. so but you know, that is, apple gets to do whatever it wants to do because it continues to sell ridiculous amount of phones with all of this profit and as long as they continue to get rewarded for what they're doing they will continue doing it, right? they will stay with the same track. neil: quickly, i'm reminded about the late great steve jobs and how he handled the marketing blitz. of course he had some products that didn't do well. some others that big announcements didn't nearly fetch the attention later products did but he made them vital purchases. that you had to do it for a

sense of style, east of use, whatever. is it your sense apple has a lock on that or are others playing catch-up here? >> apple devoted a ecosystem and products and hardware hard to top. if you're a consumer not completely bought into the ecosystem you can avoid it. you can buy an iphone have word, a computer and android tablet in if you want. if you want to go all-in on apple, apple set it up to make it extremely easy and good for consumers. so as long as they continue to do that, continue to come out with new products super fans will buy, and offer at retail stores, they will be really hard to beat. neil: jeremy, well-put. thank you for taking time. i know you're pretty busy. jeremy owens, market watch tech editor, san francisco bureau chief. >> thank you for having me here, neil.

neil: normally on big announcement days the stock tend to trade down a little bit. about even money on the day. it recoups that with surprising earnings announcement down the road or what have you, or some brokerage firm says it will go to a gazillion dollars, whatever. that has been out there. apple has appreciable run-up this year, up 32% this year. we'll keep an eye on that and how that affects things. we see that often times, not all the time, barometer of consumer spending habits. if you don't blink spending that after for a phone or a host of these other products it could be a sign that the consumer is indeed bulletproof on this sort of stuff. the first hint of that came with the purchase much big suvs, even when gas prices were rising, if americans were put off by that they wouldn't buy the gas guzzling suvs. a lot of people link the anecdotal developments as a sign consumer spending or the media's way of saying look, they make cool stuff and we want to show

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♪ neil: all right, as far as i know it was based on a "wall street journal" bulletin that came in about that 35 minutes ago that we have invited the chinese to get talks back on. no response we were told from the chinese. no others reporting this, but, that originally turned a flat market into about 160 point gain. a couple people weighing on the fact have we heard beyond "the wall street journal"? for that matter, how are we to interpret our asking chinese to come to the table, not the other way around? way too much analyzing going on here. save that for my next guest, very smart for these folks. "wall street journal" economics correspondent jon hilsenrath. jon, assuming your fine publication is right, why would this be greet the in extremes?

>> the market will respond to any indication that the trade war is many tapping down by rallying. you have to look at our story in perspective. there is a invitation that the u.s. treasury put out to senior chinese officials to come to have negotiations about this next round of talks. you know you need to bear in mind there are deep divisions inside the trump administration. treasury secretary steve mnuchin has taken a more conciliatory stance towards the chinese and others like ustr lighthizer, or others inside of the white house and the president himself was just talking last week about not only another 200 billion they're preparing to put on, tariffs on chinese goods imports but in addition to that another 267 billion. i wouldn't call this a breakthrough. i would call it an effort by the treasury to see if there is one

last chance to have some meeting of the minds before at least this 200 billion goes on. neil: do you think this pressure, 60 some u.s. business interests, automobile manufacturers, vehicle parts-makers, to maine lobster fishermen for example, saying to a man, woman or group, look this is killing us, stop? >> there is a growing campaign, we have a story about this, online today about the business community coming together and trying to slow down this whole train but you know i think that we've seen very clearly that the president has his own ideas about tariffs and about what they do for the economy and about negotiating position he wants to take with respect for them. so, you know, it is hard to say that this campaign is going to have a big impact on his mind set. very clearly looking to increasing tariffs on the chinese on another 200 billion of goods, perhaps even more than

that. neil: a lot of people are talking about the pressure, upcoming midterms, we're 55 days away from those, this is weighing on a lot of republicans who are getting increasingly concerned between that inarguable calendar and his declining poll numbers, this could hurt them, what do you think? >> well, so, the president's trump card so to speak we have a really strong economy and i think he and the republican party are going to rely on that. 3.9% unemployment rate. growth on a year-over-year basis edging in on 3%. we had income numbers out today which showed new record highs on income. so i mean it is the case that in some politically-sensitive places, particularly in the far. belt, americans are getting hit by these tariffs, but in a lot of places the economy is doing really well, and you know, i think republicans are going to

try to lean on that to make the case for this. i think, from the trump's, trump administration's point of view, president's point of view, now is the time to really squeeze our trade allies because he thinks he has some political room to move on that because of the economy is so strong. neil: real quickly, you're very good at history. besides, jon, i'm told in midterm election the economy isn't as much a crucial barometer as it would be in a presidential election. if it were, for example, barack obama would have done better in both of his midterms and his party did not. now there were other reasons, i don't minimize those, what do you make of the republicans counting on improving market and economy to get them over the hump on the midterms are getting ahead of themselves? >> i think you're right and that is a really important point. we had a story online on saturday where we looked at what happened to the unemployment rate in the year leading up to a midterm election and found no

correlation whatsoever between how the president's party did in midterm elections and how the unemployment rate performed. so, within example, you talk about history, in 1994 we had big improvements in the unemployment rate going into the midterm elections and president clinton's party lost out. we had big wave of republicans. neil: right. >> so i think that is, something that is you have to really consider. what we found is that presidential approval ratings have a much bigger bearing on midterm performance than the unemployment rate. neil: then for republicans that would be a worry. >> yep. neil: jon, always a pleasure. always learn a lot. thank you, my friend, "wall street journal" global economics editor, fox news contributor, much, much more. on this economy and what is going on with it, as jon pointed out, inarguably strong, no one is doubting that. the issue who gets the credit for that. this president thinks he should, keeps saying it.

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and it's all possible with a cfp® professional. find your certified financial planner™ professional at letsmakeaplan.org. ♪ neil: all right, 10 years ago this week, lehman brothers fell. 10 years after the financial crisis look where we have come. both presidents barack obama back then and donald trump since arguing that they're a big reason why we're back to where we are. so who can take a bow what is going on? reagan economic advisor art laffer. we have obama economic advisor austan goolsbee. gentlemen, welcome to both of you. >> thank you. hi, austan. >> hey, art, how are you doing? >> all right. neil: we to the pleasantries out of the way. austan, begin with you on this notion, i always think both presidents can take a bow. we came through the depth of something unpresident obama when he came into office.

right ad lot of things. people will talk about the federal reserve what it did and didn't do. it happened under his watch, would certainly blame him had gone other way under his watch, same with donald trump. is it fair to say both presidents should take a bow what is going on now? >> i do think that is fair. i pretty much agree with what you said, i would add the caveat i said when i was in the white house and i continue to say when i'm out of the white house, 90% of what happens in the economy in terms of growth has nothing to do with washington. it has to do with the private sector. but i think there's, economy is going well and both of those, both of those presidents deserve some credit. neil: all right. so, art, much can be said as well, about a third player here, and that is the federal reserve, what it is doing now, versus what it was doing then. are you worried, this is something a lot of obama critics point out, his was built on near zero interest rates for a long, long time, and they're similarly concerned with rates moving up,

this thing that the president brags about now could be torpedoed. what do you say? >> i still think reagan deserves all the credit for it now. just joking with you. i think powell is doing a great job. i think interest rates should be raised. i think we should unwind all the quantitative easing. we should let markets, interest rates determined in the marketplaces. low interest rates, neil, really discourage capital flowing into the places they should flow into, housing market for example. the last eight years, new housing starts per 10,000 population have been lowest eight years in our history. and that's because interest rates were too low, no one wanted to take the risk of lending to low credit borrowers for 30 years at 3%. so i think the move in interest rates very good. i do agree with austan, i mean, you know, obama came in at a very inappropriate time. i mean the crash on the market. he was caught off-guard. he had some great advisors including austan who i think was

really spectacular and advice he gave the president. but i think trump is doing a lot better job now than obama was doing at the very end. and i think economy is showing signs of really responding to president trump's policies. i think trump is really done a great job in his first term so far. neil: you know, austan, the question going forward, what would keep this going? a lot of people seem to think a steady rise in interest rates, we've had six rate hikes in this cycle if it continues slow and measured pace it, won't be too damaging. it means our debt will carry a higher price tag. that itself could be a problem. what do you think? >> yeah. i think there is some element of that, as interest rates go up, as we cut taxes and blow up the deficit as numbers were, are coming in saying we're doing now, there are some concerns on that side. i think the bigger problem,

maybe it's a political problem for the president, is that we've never had a president that was this unpopular when the economy was going as solidly as this. it is clear the american people do not give a great deal of credit to the president for what's happening. i think part of that is self-induced. he is going out and saying i'm going to put 200 billion, 500 billion of tariffs on china into. i'm glowing to blow up nafta. i will attack the europeans. there are a lot of businesses and a lot of farmers and a lot of different industries in the u.s. where they're saying, wait a minute, let's not have our prices go up 25% right before christmas. this doesn't make any sense t could threaten the recovery, could send us into recession. neil: art, number of business groups, 60 by last count, petitioning the president to go slower, u.s. auto manufacturers, apple growers, maine lobstermen,

vehicle parts-makers and they're concerned with "the wall street journal" story seems to intimate the administration wants to reignite the talks with the chinese. besides the journal no one else is confirming that. we have the same owner, us and "the wall street journal" so we believe them. my only view on that if they're concerned, echoing something i'm sure is a concern for republican s right, they will grab defeat from what should be the jaws of victory, a subject that traditionally helps party in power a good economy, what do you think? >> i think austan is correct. free trade is answer, non-trade barriers, currency manipulation and the question how do you do it? i think trump is clearly a free trader in my mind. i think he ran -- neil: do you really? if this is free trade, he is not doing it. >> i'm telling you from personal conversations with him as well as public, i think he wants to

go to zero tariffs. he doesn't -- neil: a hell of a way to go about it, you think? >> you tell me a better way. neil: not to do that. not to do that. not to fight tariff for tariff, what does that prove? >> if you bring them to the table, i think we're bringing mexico to the table right now. i think canada will come in. i think juncker when i came over here will move -- neil: you might be right. it might be, scares them into making a deal. now austan. >> that is what he does. that is what he does. i don't understand that strategy either, neil. i'm a chicken. when anyone confronts me with conflict i hide under the bed, i cry and i cuddle in the neat tall position. trump doesn't do that. neil: you don't count yourself as free trader when you do that, right? i know his goals. i will always hear the never-trumpers, there you go again. my point is not to take sides. i think that approach will backfire. >> i don't think it is going to backfire. i really don't. i hope i'm right too. i would hate to see it --

neil: austan if this accelerates, chinese don't budge, last time you and i chatted how chinese can fix things, barack obama was trying to deal with them, george bush, bill clinton, george bush, sr., on and on to little avail, if this approach would work and controversial means to get the others to do your bidding, and to change their policies, everything would be great but i have doubts about that, just me, i have doubts. do you? >> yeah, i have a lot of doubts. as i expressed, you and i have talked about this many times and that is, if we're going to publicly try to shove this in china's face and we've already alienated our own allies, the thing to do, if you want to get to change chinese behavior, the thing that has worked before on various things, is get a whole bunch of allies together who go

down and collectively confront china and what we've done is try to declare trade wars against japan, against europe, against the north american countries, and then go to china and say we want to you change your behavior. what china is literally doing now is going to the wto, they're going to file a grievance against the united states and there's a decent chance that they get our own allies to side with china against the united states. if that happens, it is going to be breathtaking. it might even lead the administration to say they want to pull the u.s. out of the wto, in which case we're definitely going into recession. neil: i don't see that either. who knows. it is still early. maybe all part of this threatening game of chicken going on here. gentlemen, thank you both, very, very much. >> thank you, neil. neil: we'll get a read on that, by the way, what is going on with the brett kavanaugh nomination. how soon a vote could happen, sooner than you think, with chuck grassley, the man that

runs the senate judiciary committee after this. ♪ to rent a movie?

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neil: want to bring you up to date an executive order president signed concerning election interference i want to bring up with senate judiciary chairman chuck grassley.

senator grassley, good to have you. i don't want to broadside you, and i understand if you're not knee deep in this. the president indicated in this executive order it would give him authority sanctions to be put in place if found an entity meddled in an election. so in the case of russia in this case, sanctions could be put in place. you and a lot of your colleagues were looking to toughen things up in that regard. john bolton indicated this is not a response to the criticism of president had with overly friendly meeting with russia's vladmir putin in helsinki. it is just codifying a policy we will not tolerate this behavior in the future. what do you make of that? >> well i think it is absolutely necessary president and all of us in public office we can to reduce the skepticism of our election process that it is fair

and honest and thorough. the president is doing what should be done at this time. in addition to what congress already done, appropriated some money help states that their system is not infiltrated with some sort of hacking but follows on what congress had for a position of strong period of time, not only dealing with election interference, dealing with other areas where china, russia, violated like crimea and ukraine and threatening the baltics. congress wants president to be very forceful in that. i believe this is example of that force congress would expect from the president. neil: but this addresses any future interruptions, right? it doesn't go back to what or might not happen? i guess pretty much assume did happen in the 2016 campaign? >> yeah. no, don't forget there are already some sanctions put on

for that reason and other reasons already. on particularly individuals close to putin. neil: but not the government of russia per se? >> that's right, as far as i can tell. neil: i want to move on to brett kavanaugh, your time teen for a vote in committee to get out of committee, what do you think? >> tomorrow. he is the on the agenda but under our rules that are very frequently used and seldom not used is holdover for one week something for one week first time on the agenda. tomorrow cavanagh will be held over according to that rule. that puts it on thursday, september the 20th, to have the debate and i presume there is going to be five or six hours of debate within our committee. based on questioning of last week, i expect he will be approved by our committee on 11-10 vote. neil: when it gets to the full

senate, do you expect all republicans to vote yea? >> as of now i do. and i think that we, it is very necessary for all republicans to stick together on this first vote. i don't think if we have possibility of getting four or five democrat votes. i don't think any one of those democrats would give us the 50th vote. if we get 50 or 51 republican votes. i think we're going to end up with 54 or 455 in a bipartisan way sending kavanaugh to the supreme court. neil: there was concern of release of emails during the days he was working for president bush, when he believed, you are leading this committee, whether roe v. wade was precedent and a precedent could change. susan collins was telling a maine newspaper she was concerned to the point that judge kavanaugh was quote,

truthful, obviously that would be a major problem for me. has she relayed that to you? have others expressed concern that the judge wasn't truthful? >> well. he is truthful from this standpoint. he made very clear after 50 years, roe v. wade is precedent. he made very clear it is even stronger precedent because it was reinforced by the casey abortion case in 1992, and, and that is all he could say because he doesn't know what sort of an abortion case is going to come before -- neil: you believe him and you don't think this warrants sort of, you know, rethinking him as a chief justice on the part of some of your members? >> well i haven't heard that any members has gone that far beyond what they previously said. i think senator collins has made a very strong statement after hours of meeting with him about a month ago. and i haven't heard any distraction from that original

statement. neil: senator, what did you make of between the protest, a number of democrats, including senator cory booker, who had that great "spartacus" moment he called it, risk ex-pullion of the senate for releasing classified emails. do you think because he followed up with release of additional emails that is something that the senate should consider? he should be up for expulsion? >> well i'm not a member of the ethics committee. if i was, i couldn't talk about, but i will leave that up to the ethics committee or anybody on the outside that wants to push that. at this point i would not push it because i think that in some of those approaches like, when he read from something that at 4:00 a.m. in the morning had already been said it was legal for him to have that document and to use it i think he, he looked a little silly in

pursuing it. neil: so he knew what he was doing but what he was doing wasn't violating anything because it had already been agreed to be released? >> maybe the first time he read from it, the night before, it could have been in violation but then we were already in the process of getting the justice department to say whether or not that document could be made public and by 4:00 a.m. the next day it was, it could be public. then what he said about it on thursday obviously was not a violation of any rule. neil: okay. you had said, i think you met with some folks back in your home state, and later on told "the des moines register" that i knew there was going to be some fireworks at the hearing but there was a lot more than i thought there was going to be, really? i mean these were pretty well-telegraphed, but were you surprised how many protesters were there and how

>> well, i wouldn't call them protesters. i would say they are people that honestly disagree with whether or not kavanaugh ought to be on the supreme court. i happen to agree, based upon the hearings we had last week, that he ought to be on the supreme court. and there's people that just don't disagree with it and they disagree strongly and they came to my town meetings, they did what representative governments ought to do. i was doing what representatives of people of their particular state ought to do, listen to them, answer their question. it was kind of a normal town meeting except just a little more noisy than usual. neil: yeah. it was that. you kept your cool, i give you that. you know, about the pressure around these hearings, this crowdfunding website that's trying to compel susan collins to go ahead and vote against judge kavanaugh, it's raising money, better than $1 million, that if she were to vote for him, they will unleash that

money to make sure in 2020 she's not re-elected. what do you think of that? >> well, of course, that's politics in america. both the left and the right do that. but i think she showed her very strong independence representing the people of maine, been very independe independent. she's been very independent within the republican caucus. she's an outstanding senator and she's a forceful statement abhorring that whole process. i can't speak any more. she spoke louder than i can about it. but i tell you, i have known her and working with her ever since she came to the house of representatives in 1978. she's a person of great respect and great principle and she expressed that principle yesterday. neil: you know, senator, i'm wondering what you make of mitch mcconnell's comments the other day concerning republicans keeping control, forget about the house, the senate, saying it's going to be a nightmare to

keep the senate. do you think the senate itself could be in doubt? >> no, i don't believe it's in doubt but i think the president or the leader of the senate, republicans are saying the right thing. you don't know what the next six weeks hold. you want to put everybody on their toes. i think that's what he was doing, and he should do it. i think by doing that and getting people working harder, raising more money, that he may even increase the senate majority. neil: are you surprised that republicans are in this position with the strong economy, certainly the strong markets, but maybe it's the trade war, maybe it's the ongoing disruptions the president has been having with the bob woodward book and this anonymous editorial in the "new york times." what has you guys on defense? >> well, i don't know that we're on -- the way you characterize it. i don't accept that. but even if i did, i think that

it's good to be very nervous about your re-election. i think that's -- neil: were you surprised, senator, i'm sorry i wasn't clear, that given the strong numbers, i think even democrats would agree these are strong numbers you've got for the economy, that the party -- again, the polls could be wrong and often are. they were certainly wrong in 2016, to your point. you could still lose the house even with -- potentially the senate. it is weird, isn't it? >> i think the president is taking the right course by suggesting that if democrats do take over, impeachment is a possibility and if impeachment is a possibility, then this basically ends the revolutionary outcome of the 2016 election, because the minute that starts, the effectiveness of everything this president is trying to do and all he's trying to do is what he said he was going to do in the election, he's trying to carry that out, and he's being pretty successful at it, particularly on the economy, that it's going to come to a

halt. i think if he talks about it enough and they realize his progress is going to be stalled, then that makes a big difference. i think the president should follow what he did the last two weeks of the -- of his election. he was very much on script, very disciplined in how he approached it. if he can keep that same discipline between now and the midterm elections, i think he's going to improve republicans' chances of holding the house of representatives. by the way, i don't think it's in jeopardy, but prevent as much loss as he can. neil: all right. that i assume means cool it on the tweeting. >> every way he communicates with the american people. neil: okay. senator, thank you very, very much. always a pleasure, sir. i appreciate it. >> thank you. neil: senator chuck grassley. we are also keeping track of mother nature and some storms there besides political ones.

georgia's governor just declaring a state of emergency for hurricane florence. the former fema director, david paulson, on all that. i believe that makes five states and/or districts like the district of columbia that declared these emergencies. where does that get you, when you declare a state of emergency? what does that grant you? >> that allows the governor to do some different things outside of the legislature. it gives a lot of authority to activate the national guard, move supplies around, move people around. it opens a lot of doors for the governor to be very successful and be proactive with these storms coming in. neil: much has been written and said about fema and its financial precarious situation, multiple extensions for flood insurance programs and the like that aren't directly related to fema, but part of this concern people have, will fema be able to help out if it's in arears or the flood program is technically $20 billion in debt, whatever it

is. does that worry you? could you explain to people how that would not affect whatever help fema would offer? >> yeah. the disaster relief fund is not part of that. that's what's going to be here for this particular storm. this is a devastating storm coming in. there's like almost a trillion dollars worth of housing stock in front of this storm, according to zillow. fema is moving in quickly. the states have done an excellent job. i'm very, very pleased with all of the governors. they have been proactive getting people evacuated, unlike what we saw in katrina. we are seeing a very positive move, putting politics aside, the governors are making the tough decisions, doing what they should be doing. i'm very pleased with that part of it. but the disaster relief fund is there. it is not being touched. the money will be there to respond to this disaster. in fact, fema is already moving trucks in, moving people in, moving supplies in, as are the states. neil: finally, sir, i appreciate

your taking the time here, is it your sense that people who are told to leave their homes or get out of harm's way, some of them were told go south for the case of those living in north carolina, south carolina, now of course given the changing trajectory of the storm at least by the latest models, the south wasn't the place to go. is the rule of thumb keep going inland, go west, go west, go west? >> get as far away as you can. the people have done what they have been asked to do. we have supposedly a million and a half people already moving. south carolina is not far enough, move into georgia, into florida. they need to get away from this storm. particularly the ones that are on the coast, particularly in the low-lying areas. there's going to be a lot of flooding with this storm. it's going to bring a lot of rain and what the weather channel is saying is this thing is going to sit there for awhile and dump maybe 20, 30 inches of rain in this small area. neil: that's the biggest thing, it just sits there, regardless of the wind speed.

thank you, david. very good of you to come by. >> you're welcome. neil: in the meantime, you heard david there, conservative estimates of at least $30 billion in potential costs related to florence. that could rocket quite easily if the storm hangs around, as many say it could. let's go to market watchers, phil flynn, scott martin. a lot of people, the predictable run-up you see in oil and other ancillary items that feel the heat as soon as something like this develops. what are you noticing there? >> what i'm noticing is that it's very unusual for a storm in this part of the country to impact oil prices to the upside, because usually when we talk about north carolina, it's not like the gulf of mexico, where we have a lot of production, lot of refineries. we do have some pipelines but generally when you get a storm like this into that part of the world, oil prices actually go down because they are worried about people not being able to drive in a couple of days. so that's very unusual.

i think the reason why that is is that we not only have this storm florence everybody is focusing on, and rightly so, we have other tropical activity in the atlantic. this story may be just the beginning of a long nightmare that's going to go on for some time. neil: i was looking, to your point, and scott, i will pick your brain a little bit, besides florence, you got isaac which is still a tropical storm but building rapidly, helene, olivia near hawaii. it seems an odd number of storms concurrently. i'm wondering, you monitor these things beyond just their effect in impacted areas. how does the market look at that? >> yeah. the market takes i guess its cues from how the forecast looks. incidentally, i have two friends, isaac and helene, who i'm not talking to right now because of what they are scaring us about in the atlantic ocean. that's a true story. look at retail, for example. retail obviously a big, big part

of this u.s. economy, and it's kind of split. you have areas like home depot and costco which we own as investors here for ourselves and our clients, doing very well because the demand that gets pulled forward for a couple of those companies, yet you look at real estate as you mentioned with the fema director, and you look at some of the other things that go on with business when it comes to spending that goes on at home depots and so forth. those companies are going to hurt. insurors are on the hook for big storms like this. the market takes it in pieces here but looking at some of the home depot names and some of the names in retail that benefit from all the demand that gets put forward, those are areas you have to watch here because they are going up. neil: you know, if you look back a year or so ago when we had harvey, irma, maria, there were fears given the huge insurance related costs, to say nothing of the tragedies related to those storms, the economy came roaring back, obviously. the markets came roaring back.

these regions came roaring back. is it your sense that whatever impact is felt and you hope it's minimal in terms of lives affected, we come back. we always come back. >> we do. we go through a period, every storm is different. depends on where it hits, when it hits. generally, once you go through the pain and the slowdown in demand, you do get this economic rebuilding boom, because you will build again. that's always good for the economy, it's good for jobs. from an economic viewpoint, we do recover from these storms. but the other side of the equation, you are going to see a lot of loss. again, we talk about the human toll and you worry about the average people that have homes but you also worry for a lot of these businesses. sometimes these businesses don't come back. one of the areas we are talking about in north carolina, it's the biggest producer of hogs or one of the biggest producers in the country. they have about 13% of all the hog farmers.

the biggest hog plant in the world had to shut down because of this storm. not only do you have to worry about the farmers losing land, they could lose a big part of the crops. you could have pigs drowning that could really impact supply. there are so many facets the these storms. the human and the economic impact that cross over. it really is amazing how the u.s. economy bounces back almost every time. neil: final word on that. sorry for the shortened version, guys. thank you both very, very much. i would be remiss if i didn't tell you there's an apple event going on right now. lot of new products and i do mean a lot. i don't think i have seen an event where they have so many debuting at the same time. we break them all down and tell you what it means to apple but more to the point, to the economy, after this.

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beyond fast. neil: all right. the apple announcement is on. you might see tim cook with a backdrop of apple watches. apparently they are announcing that it will have a larger screen, 30% larger screen. physically the watch will remain the same size. i guess that means it will go end to end. that's the extent of my knowledge. really, i'm killing myself explaining this.

bottom line is, i have two geniuses who can help me through this. katie, we are going to get a blitzkrieg of product announcements. anything catch your eye? >> any announcement is a huge deal. it's amazing to me one tech company, especially in the smartphone realm, continues to get press day of, pre, and post. remarkable. i think today is all about the phones. we expect to see the leaks have already come in, we expect them to be spot-on, an iphone 10s and 10s max, they are going with the plus version, and iphone 10xr which will be the most affordable. we already saw the announcement, the series 4 apple watch has been completely reengineered and redesigned with a whole new ui. neil: what's a ui? >> user interface. neil: 30% larger watch. i have one here. i like the watches i have more

interaction with. but can it say stuff? you really don't have to do these steps. we don't know that. right? >> you want to do the steps. you want your 10,000 steps a day. neil: 10,000? i thought it was just ten. >> that to me is the barometer. that's subjective. neil: we are told the big part of this is a much larger phone, bigger even than the note that galaxy -- >> galaxy, the note 9, 6.4 inches and what we expect here today from apple, the biggest phone, 6.5. take that, samsung. but it is interesting that tim cook, he turned it over to jeff, first name only, to talk about the watch. what's interesting is they started with -- there's a little bit of a dramatic build toward the real product. apple watch and apple air pod have -- neil: jeff has the watch.

i think it's problematic on your wrist. >> the reason i did want to actually call attention to the watch and the reason for starting it, even though this is less than 5% of apple's revenue, this just emphasizes the services. we were talking about the fact apple has already sold 1.3 billion iphones in the world walking around attached to all of us. their growth area is going to be the services. when we binge on netflix, when we binge on hbo, when we are playing video games. that is where apple over the next five years sees over the next five years, a build to 16% of their revenue. even though i kind of joke about the watch or the earbuds, the air pod, that actually is just connecting us more to the services that apple hopes we are going to get hooked on as much as we are actually hooked on the hardware. neil: those services are big money makers. >> not only is it the best-selling watch currently and probably will remain for time unforeseen but it's all about the ecosystem.

neil: best-selling in that category, right? >> it's killing it in terms of retail. i think your point about owning the ecosystem, whether you are a samsung or apple of the world, you want that ecosystem. it is as much about the accessories and add-on hardware as it is the phones. i can speak for myself, when your whole family and all your friends are connected to that ecosystem, that's the money driver right there, hands down. >> i think on average, morgan stanley put out this research saying $30 per unit on average, whether downloading tunes, whether buying a game, whether interacting -- neil: that's how much we are spending on ancillary stuff? >> right this second. morgan stanley is not the only place that says that will go a lot higher. neil: all right. i see a lot of evolutionary products here, fine-tuning a lot of their successful products. i don't see any brand new thing coming out. right? >> i use the word incremental.

i think everybody expects incremental add-ons, faster processor, better cameras. expectations are there. neil: they have to work on the battery. it loses power after an hour. >> that sounds like a personal problem. that might be an anomaly. neil: it's supposed to monitor whether you sleep and all that stuff but people have to charge it up at night. can't they fix that? >> they did go to wireless charging. maybe that's an incremental step. neil: they will announce that today but they promised that before. all your devices, right? >> wireless charging for the 8 and also the x. moving that forward, that will be something we see across the board. neil: you don't like the samsung products. you are an apple devotee, right? >> i hate to just drive home the importance of making it seamless. when you are on a mac, an ipad and they are seamlessly connected, you can jump off and

be on another device. neil: the galaxy and note cameras are superior. >> they are great phones. i can't disagree with that at all. neil: you aren't a samsung hater. >> not at all. i would own that if i was. i'm not. i think there are great options. the competition's there, which is a good thing. but ecosystem. neil: the stock is up 32% this year. it's been on fire. typically i was surprised on a day the announcement, the stock sells off and recoups afterward. >> i think we go through this, there's kind of a lot of, you know, leaking and speculation into what the phones are going to look like, then day of, we often see a little bit but even down 1%, to your point, with the 34%, 32% gain, it is outperforming many other stocks. neil: thank you both very much. we got the u.s. pushing for a new round of trade talks with china. who is blinking here?

neil: all right. the "wall street journal" is reporting that the u.s. is looking to jump-start talks with china and advocating that the chinese get to the table. no response to any of this, no follow-through on any of this. edward lawrence in d.c. what's going on? reporter: this appears to be a last-minute outreach by the secretary of treasury. the "wall street journal" reporting that senior administration officials led by secretary of treasury steve mnuchin have reached out to their chinese counterparts as sort of a last-ditch effort to see if china is ready to talk. now, no substantial talks with the chinese on high level occasion since basically early summer. the outreach comes as the last chance for china to sit down before the president imposes 25% tariff on $200 billion worth of chinese goods. already, china's market has been affected. at the moment their market has

lost the number two spot in the world, that's the second largest market in the world. japan has replaced them. now the president saying he would be willing to impose even morte tariffs above the $200 million he's looking at this next round which would basically encompass everything china has importing into the united states. as this rift continues, more hopeful deal on nafta. right now, the canadian minister of foreign affairs is meeting with canadian prime minister justin trudeau. the senior canadian official says it was very important for her to keep the prime minister abreast of all developments at this time. right before chrystia freeland left late last night on a plane, she says she really wanted to deliver her message face-to-face. >> he really needs to be able to talk to him directly to answer his questions, to let you know where we are, to hear from him his positions and his

instructions so this is really a moment when speaking and meeting face-to-face with the prime minister is absolutely essential. reporter: the next meeting on nafta has not yet been set. we were hearing it was going to be friday, but with the hurricane looming, they may postpone that. again, no official meeting has been set. neil: thank you, my friend very, very much. stocks pulling back after this china talk talk, but we have been up and down and everywhere in between. nicole petallides at the knock stock exchange. reporter: we did have options and we saw a pop and traders said why the pop. that's because you start to talk about negotiations once again with the u.s. and china. the dow up 71 points. major averages up for the week slightly. taking a look at the dow, winners right now, you see boeing is on there, up 2.5%. it's really the outlook for september and going forward. they have had a logjam, they have had supply issues but the

ceo has come out talking about going forward and that brought optimism. oil, which has been higher today, is bringing up chevron. with oil there is concerns about sanctions on iran and tighter global supply coupled with hurricane florence coming to the coast. here's a look at some winners on the nasdaq. discovery, western dig, tesla, tesla up 4%. interestingly enough, we had the ipo today of the ticker symbol nio, china electric vehicle maker, direct competitor for tesla. here's a look at some of the s&p 500 winners. the s&p just fractionally positive this moment as we speak. you can see altria is up 6.3%. that represents the tobacco groups, some concerns about the tobacco fields. also news in tobacco today is that they are considering banning some of the flavored e-cigarettes. that's another interesting development. as a group, financials and technology under some pressure. we are seeing energy and telecom

doing well today. neil: jamie dime on has opinion on the president and politics and all that. charlie gasparino on that. >> jamie said -- what did he have to say? neil: first of all, jamie dimon commenting -- >> he was at some internal private meeting at jpmorgan i would say around 11:00 today, and he started, i guess he was asked a question about his future, whether he was going to spend it in politics or do whatever, and then he starts doing his imitation of trump a little bit. i mean, it was interesting. you and i had this conversation beforehand, these guys get down into the mud with him, it's kind of not a smart thing to do. he went out, he said listen, i'm paraphrasing, he said this is the substance of it, that unlike trump, he made a lot of money on his own, you know. intimating that trump was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple with his father giving him the bucks. then he said that he could

probably -- he could beat him, if they were running against each other because he's actually tougher. neil: he said i'm smarter than he is. >> smarter than he is, too. i remember the tough part. did he say smart, too? neil: what's going on? >> then he backtracked after that and said he shouldn't have said it. just shows i wouldn't be a good politician. neil: so not running for president. but he did leave that open there. he's been dangling this in the past. is it your sense the bloom is off the rose between these two? in the beginning -- >> i think you and i, i reported on your show a couple months ago that after a lot of trump's trade rhetoric, not china per se, because i think a lot of people think that in and of itself is something else you have to deal with because they are criminals when it comes to trade but everybody else is anti-nafta stuff. i think jamie's relationship with trump, from what i understand when that hit the

skids, so i don't think he's been to the white house in awhile. neil: he's had hot and cold relationships with barack obama, now -- >> couple things here that are interesting. jamie went after obama and paid for it, too. the justice department went after jpmorgan on alleged improprieties involving financial crisis activities and they paid a lot of money and clearly squeezed them on the london whale trade. remember that inadvertent trade they lost a lot of money on. i think the reason -- neil: they denied at the time there was any connection there. >> well, there was. everybody knows it and he knows it. this is the problem with him going after trump. this is why they tried to put the genie back in the bottle almost immediately. my guess is that's the work of his head of p.r., one of the best in the business. he said get out and let's correct the record, because the federal government could really hurt you in ways you don't realize.

the fed, the federal reserve which is supposed to be independent but nominally is, is the building. he's playing with fire with this. we should point out a couple things about jamie. smart guy, known him for a long time. he says he doesn't want to run for president. i have spoken with about five people that are very close to him say he does. so some of this comes out. this is like a freudian slip. neil: i'm wondering if trump's candidacy has gotten a lot of successful business guys to think i could do it, too. >> i'm sure it has. he was never accepted, you know, never considered a viable candidate and then he was. it also gnaws at them. none of the business guys i know would ever put donald trump on their board of directors. they don't think he's smart enough, they don't like his business. they wouldn't even lend him money, the trump organization money. that's why trump had to go to

extraordinary means at deutsche bank and we know that bank is not like the best bank right now, one of the few banks that would lend him money. none of these guys would lend him money because they didn't trust him from a business standpoint. they didn't think he was a very good businessman. neil: they all criticize the president's demeanor but end up sounding, i'm smarter than he is. >> i agree with you, but part of this is jealousy. they wouldn't put him on their board, they don't think he's that smart, he became president, then they all think they can become president and they have this little bit of an animosity to him. in jamie's defense, i will tell you this, jamie's a free trader. jamie's a pretty straight-talking guy. i know he doesn't like the crudeness coming out of the white house. my guess is that really angers him and plus, he wants to be president and it came out today in a freudian slip, in my view. neil: maybe not so freudian. >> maybe not.

it's marco's fault. he makes me do this stuff. neil: very, very good. we will leave it at that. all right. we will be exploring overtures to china on the part of the administration. if true, someone blinked and it wasn't the other side. what to make of that? jardiance asked: when it comes to managing your type 2 diabetes, what matters to you? you got a1c, heart, diet, and exercise. slide 'em up or slide 'em down. so let's see.

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brian, my certified financial planner™ professional, is committed to working in my best interest. i call it my "comfortable future plan," and it's all possible with a cfp® professional. find your certified financial planner™ professional at letsmakeaplan.org. neil: given the strong numbers, i think even democrats would agree these are strong numbers you've got for the economy, that the party -- and again, polls could be wrong and they often are. they were certainly wrong in 2016, to your point. you could still lose the house even with -- potentially the senate. it is weird, isn't it? >> i think the president is taking the right course by suggesting that if democrats do take over, impeachment is a possibility and if impeachment's a possibility, then this basically ends the revolutionary outcome of the 2016 election.

neil: all right. that was senator chuck grassley of iowa, shepherding the brett kavanaugh nomination through to become the next supreme court justice. he's optimistic he will become that. let's get the read on all this from patrice lee and [ inaudible ]. what he's saying, it's going to be a knife fight for control of the senate, it's going to be a battle for the house. it's on, we know it. he's acknowledging the obvious here but thinks republicans will come out okay. what do you think? >> he makes a great point. republicans are at this point where they just can't be complacent. the narrative has been for the past year and a half democrats have this terrible senate map in 2018, it's a bunch of democrats running in states where trump won versus states where clinton won. but these races are tighter than anyone would have expected at this point a year and a half ago. there's a bunch of toss-up races

in states like west virginia, tennessee, missouri. so i think well, sounds like senator grassley is pretty optimistic that republicans will keep the senate. they don't have the room to just kind of relax and cruise to victory. neil: you know, in the middle of this we got this "wall street journal" report that the administration sent out an overture to china, let's get these talks back on. i believe that's the first time we have initiated such a thing. what are we to make of that? >> well, i think the administration recognizes that good relationships with china in terms of trade and just in general is going to be important for not just foreign policy but for a strong, growing economy going forward. i think everybody's on their tippy-toes wondering what's going to go on with trade and with these tariffs, particularly with china. what's interesting, i think there was a big national coalition of manufacturers nationwide who came out against the administration, at least pushing hard saying hey, this is how these tariffs are hurting

small businesses, manufacturers across the country, so i think the administration is probably taking a hint from these small businesses nationwide and manufacturers and thinking how do we continue to ensure that our relationship with china is going to be preserved. >> it would read to me worry on the part of the administration or at least some pressure from those business groups you both alluded to earlier, and they don't want it to screw up the midterms. >> look, these tariffs, the point of the tariffs is to get some of these other countries to concede to make a deal, right? tariffs are not a long-term solution and i think the administration knows that. as long as this kind of stalemate with countries like canada and china keeps going, there are lots of people and lots of people in trump country and places where republicans are trying to win or hold seats that are having significant economic ramifications from the tariffs that are not good. yes, there's definitely

political risk for letting this trade war play out indefinitely. neil: is it your sense that if the president gets his way with the supreme court pick that brett kavanaugh does get voted out of committee, it might be just along party line vote, 11-10, whatever it is, but he gets full senate confirmation, is that helpful in the midterms? is that another successful judge appointment on the part of this president and it shows that he can get stuff like that done? >> well, look back at 2016. something like 30% of trump supporters supported him because of his ability to nominate and get a supreme court justice that's going to be a constitutionalist who will be faithful to the constitution. i think this is going to be certainly a rallying point for conservatives even those who are never trumpers, but people who recognize this administration is trying to live up to some of these ideals and opportunities to ensure that the supreme court is going to be held and that we have the right justices in the

right states. neil: i don't know if a court pick moves the needle. i guess if it went down in flames, it might. assuming this one doesn't, how do you see it? >> i think it's something i found remarkable, supreme court justices are typically not super controversial. there has been a few instances historically where there have been controversial picks. for sure in 2016, as you mentioned, majority leader mitch mcconnell's decision to hold that supreme court seat open for a potential republican nominee, that was very controversial. it also made a huge impact on the election. but with brett kavanaugh's nomination, the public is really divided on whether or not he should be appointed to this seat, about whether the senate should vote him in. i think that it's just another kind of strike at that narrative of the country is really divided right now on these issues and the left and democrats are

really angry about what president trump is doing and that could cause them to turn out in huge numbers. neil: we'll see. we've got 55 days to settle this one. thank you both very, very much. the dow has erased most of the gains we saw earlier on, when we were up about 155 points, i believe, at our high. up about 22 1/2 right now. hard to see what's going on. there has been a technology sell-off today, even with apple. apple introducing a host of new products including a larger iphone with a screen size of 6.5 inches. that is just for starters. (guard) i've seen things i shouldn't have.

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neil: all right. still keeping an eye on hurricane florence right now. where she goes and how fast she is once she gets there is anyone's guess. we have been following the very, very latest. adam, how's it looking? >> we are getting closer and closer at this point. there's your center of circulation. still a big storm, 130 miles an hour. there's the coast. we have been watching it for days. we are getting to that point. we will start to see some of these effects likely late tomorrow afternoon. so into the afternoon hours, things will really start to deteriorate. you see it staying a strong category 4 storm. pay attention to this. that location right there off the coast or on the coast, perhaps, early friday morning. this is now saturday morning, so

this really pumps the brakes as we get along the coast and that's bad news for people wherever this ultimately ends up setting up, because if it sits still, that means it's going to be able to add rain on top of the storm surge we are talking about, on top of the winds we will talk about. if it just hovers in one location, that means it can drop rain for hours and hours and hours, and that's what some of these forecast models are suggesting. again, where it ultimately stops will make a big difference in how much rainfall communities ultimately see but this gives you an idea, spots getting up in the 20 to 30 inch range, if this can sit right onshore, maybe more widespread, places getting anywhere from six to a foot including total storm surge. so it will be a big storm system. as far as the winds go, you can pay attention to the time stamp, i will get out of the way so you can look at it, this is getting at lunchtime tomorrow, that's when we initially start to see the winds pick up a little bit. they will only intensify as we run into thursday evening. by friday morning, likely getting some hurricane force winds right along the coastal

areas and then this will begin to work its way perhaps down the coast, bringing those winds, bringing that very extreme rain with it. also, this is friday morning. that's when the hurricane force winds eventually arrive. that's when we see the chances for the power outages to really start increasing. as those go, the rain will continue to climb. unfortunately, if this hovers for awhile, you lose power on friday, it might be several days that this continues to linger and you will have to deal with this all the way into sunday or monday. here's what we're looking at and i do think perhaps we will see this hurricane warning extend a little farther south as the path does move that direction, but it's still a very fluid process. neil: all right. 12 to 13 foot storm surge, that is incredible. thank you very, very much. also keeping an eye on apple today, new product announcements. quite a few, as it turns out, including variety of new iphones. one as large as 6.5 inch screen

which, for the time being, would eclipse that of the galaxy note, a 6.4 inch screen. there's a lot more to it. let's get the read on what he makes of it, our market watcher. mark, what do you make of what you have heard thus far? >> look, who doesn't love apple. they are a $1 trillion company. they make up approximately 4% of the s&p. i got an iphone, i love it. but look, everybody has to really avoid one thing, that's falling in love with any one company. fall in love with your wife, not an individual stock. diversification is always the key. don't get caught throwing a lot of money on any one company. it's enticing. they are up 33% so far this year. it's easy to get really enticed and sucked in, but you have to stay diversified. we are in over 13,000 stocks. apple represents about one quarter of 1%. don't stock pick no matter how great the company is. neil: when you say that, if not for apple and amazon and

alphabet google and facebook, they disproportionately weighted the run-up we have seen in particularly the nasdaq 100, popular etf for those pursuing technology and the like. do you think it's justified in apple's or amazon's case, there's too much reliance on just a few guys? >> well, you know, obviously there is when you see a thing like elon musk in the car industry smoking pot on the internet, it's kind of disconcerting. you never put too much faith in any one person running any one company because you don't know what the future is. how many people put a ton of faith in enron and worldcom and kodak and those companies seemed like they would last forever. overnight, i'm not saying apple will go bankrupt tomorrow, but what i'm saying is it can happen to anybody. that's why you diversify. and you are betting on one company that's going to supposedly beat the s&p. the s&p historically has been

about 11, 11.5%. don't bet on one stock. you got to diversify. tech stocks, as you said, way up this year. remember tech stock crash the last one, it was massive. lot of people got hurt. neil: you were just going the read my next question. do you expect we will have a repeat of that? last go-round, it was based on the fact very few companies had the earnings, even the revenues, to justify it. this time, we are told it's different because, well, there are a lot more that fit that bill. >> well, it's really easy for people to get sucked into suckers. remember, not too long ago it was gold, the gold sector. now it's the tech sector because techs are up about 19% so far this year but studies show where the premiums are in microcap stocks and small value stocks, and those stocks rarely, if ever, catch the headlines. it's usually pretty reasonable and logical, don't chase the thing that's up. everybody knows sell off a little bit of the thing that's up and buy the thing that's

down. this year, it's emerging markets, down about 10% this year. nobody ever calls me up and says hey, mark, is it time to buy more emerging markets. it's always a thing that's up 15%. neil: you mentioned a lot of those emerging markets. even hong kong, for example, robust as it is, is in bear market territory. we have been withstanding all of this. is that going to last? >> who knows. one of the questions i got from the producer was is apple a short-term buy. no equities. not any equity on the book is a short-term buy. equities are always a 10 to 20-year hold. that's what makes it so frustrating for investors. they want the sure thing. i want to buy the thing that's supposedly going to go up 15%, 20% in the next 12 months and that's playing on the human psyche and human emotion for wanting fast returns. if you can't stand the 15%, 20%, even 30% drop, shouldn't be in equities at all because no one can tell you exactly when that's going to happen. neil: mark, thank you very, very

much. mark matson. going through this sort of apple lineup of announcements, pretty much has telegraphed a new watch with a little more oomph to it as well as three phones with three different price points. hopes you drive safely. but allstate helps you. with drivewise. feedback that helps you drive safer. and that can lower your cost now that you know the truth... are you in good hands?

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neil: all right. news out of cbs that "60 minutes" producer jeff fager is out of cbs amid same sexual

misconduct allegations that bedeviled his boss, les moonves. that whether he, mr. moonves, could get exit of $100 million parting executive package. that is in doubt until an investigation looking into those allegations is resolved. jeff fager facing similar charges of misconduct in that area is out. we have the dow doing a whole bunch of nothing right now. trish regan to take you through that. trish: we're watching all of this very, very carefully. thank you, neil. the fed is releasing, set to release seconds from now, brand new report on health of our economy. you can see the dow is waiting anxiously on that report. it is going to give us a sense how we can gauge how the whole america first agenda is impacting our economy. of course we, are getting lots

of threats of tariffs from the president. how much of that is affecting the economy right now? i'm trish regan, welcome, everyone, to "the intelligence report. let's go straight right now to washington, d.c. to jennifer schoenberger at the fed. >> trish, concerns about tariffs were widespread across businesses not just manufacturers in august. in some cases, some companies in some districts opting to postpone or scale back capital investment but the economy remained in solid shape according to the federal reserve's beige book. now, trish, businesses grappling with higher material costs in part because of tariffs especially manufacturers, but manufacturers were optimistic about the outlook. in general inflation pressure is building across the country. average material costs are rising faster than the prices that businesses can sell their products for. now in certain cases they have been able to pass on those higher costs