states senate says which way she will vote tomorrow, when the final vote is taken on judge kavanaugh. find out at 3:00, susan collins, yes or no. neil, i'm out of time but it is yours. neil: certainly the interest rates are big factor here but do you think even though it has been dismissed because the markets don't focus on this, the possibility that judge kavanaugh doesn't become a justice and i'm wondering if that rankles some folks or is seeping into this debate? stuart: maybe but at the moment the signs suggest tentatively that he will be nominated successfully to the supreme court. if it was looking like he wouldn't get in, that theory, that is what is taking the market down that would have a bit more credence, at the moment it looks like, i don't want to make a speculative point but looks like he is in. neil: in a very nice way you totally dismissed my point. stuart: yeah. neil: that's fine. i was going with that the next

two hours and have to come up with something else. thank you very much. have a great weekend. we're exploring, that my inner suspicion and maybe my pay know yaw, market would weigh in, if the judge become as justice what if he doesn't? stuart is right, signs likely bolting of lisa murkowski of alaska he will get in by the skin of his cheney chin chin, that is not necessary zarely -- necessarily a given. we're looking at a few key senators right now. chad pergram at the capitol. reporter: we're looking confirmmation vote sometime tomorrow afternoon. the official time according to score keepers here is 4:52 p.m. the idea once you have invoked cloture. once you voted to end debate what this procedural vote was about this last hour, you get 30 hour. so that 30 hour clock would

expire at the earliest at 4:52 tomorrow afternoon. now, here is what is going to happen. we're told in the past 20 minutes or so we expect the senate to be in all afternoon and all night. they're going to run all this clock. when they look at the vote here sometimes these procedural votes are reflective how the actual confirmation vote or up-or-down vote on a bill is going to be. sometimes they're not not a lot of times senators vote to end debate even though i won't vote on final issue. susan collins was a yes. she will maybe the official announcement 3:00 if she is yes or no on brett kavanaugh. joe manchin was defector on other side of the aisle. he voted yes, the vote was 51-49. neil, there is important point, not that long ago, march of 2017 it used to take 60 votes to end debate on a supreme court nominee.

last year senate majority leader mitch mcconnell he did something, he established a new precedent called "nuclear option" ii. he didn't change the rules but lowered the bar to end filibusters on supreme court nominees because he was having trouble with the filibuster to get neil gorsuch confirmed. so he lowered the bar from 60 to 51. if we operated by the old rules or old precedent, judge kavanaugh would not be on track to be confirmed tomorrow afternoon. 51-49. that is where neil gorsuch got on the high court but now it is looking much better for brett kavanaugh. neil: lisa murkowski said she has not made up her mind, when she voted no on the whole cloture thing that telegraphed a no vote on the kavanaugh nomination. what do you make of that? >> well you know i followed her yesterday at length through the

capitol. she left the briefing through they were reading fbi report and went down through the capitol basement to elude some. reporters. she exited the house side. sometimes how you vote on cloture reflects how you will vote on final passage or confirmation. sometimes it doesn't. that is unclear. i could tell from watching her body language she is really trying to process this. that is very important. some people would argue the fact this late in the game and you haven't made up your mind, you know that might signal trouble for the nomination. had they not had the vote of joe manchin the democrat from west virginia. again the matrix on the math is very tight here. she had told me yesterday she had made no decision but it was getting very close to decision time. we're even closer right now to decision time. i should throw one other fly in the ointment. steve daines the republican senator from montana, he is supposed to walk his daughter down the aisle tomorrow afternoon at her wedding in montana. he is a yes. well he has indicated if his

services are needed to be, perhaps the decisive vote, he will get back to washington in some form. now the longest roll cale vote they have ever had in senate history happened on the stimulus package in february of 2009, five hours and 15 minutes. they needed 60 votes. the vote was 60-38. here is the problem, sherrod brown, democratic senator from ohio, had gone to cleveland for his mother's wake. he came back. if they start the vote, 4:52, 5:00, they could keep the vote opened a infinitum until they have the votes. if they are short and absolutely need steve daines to get back to washington, they could keep his vote open into the night, into the overnight, who knows how long. that might be a factor we'll see come tomorrow. we'll see once we know how susan collins is going to vote. neil: i'm sure his daughter would understand, senator daines one way or the other it is for the country.

back, if you don't mind on the murkowski thing, has anyone ever voted against cloture and then apparently reversed themselves to the degree we would have to see a yes vote out of her today? >> it doesn't usually work that way but it is certainly not unprecedented. there are a lot of senators, i remember talking many times with john mccain the late republican senator from arizona he would vote on cloture, if he thought something was given sufficient time and due diligence he would vote yes. a lot of senators that is their position. we had the debate, let's vote to cut off debate but i might differ on final confirmation vote. neil: i have not seen it the other way around. >> it is rare. it is rare. it is not unprecedented neil. i was going to throw one little factoid in here, if they are flying senator daines back in, lyndon johnson the majority

leader, regarded at the master of the senate. he needed to get huber humphrey in for a vote in the late '50s. he talked to the tower at national airport to get huber humphrey's night in to get him to the senate chamber to vote. we don't know if we have the dramatics for steve daines. but there is a precedent for hubert humphrey and lyndon johnson when he was senate majority leader in the '50s. neil: i didn't know that thank you, my friend, very much. neil, they say you're reading too much into this. when we passed along the news lisa murkowski had not made up her mind, keep in mind we were down at session lows, 260 points. we dropped that down to 230. i'm not one who follows tick for tick. i have a silly suspicion this is not driven by seven year highs in interest rates or 10-year note approaching 3 1/4%. all worries the same. i'm not dismissing any of that. they were constant yesterday. they remained more of a constant today. but the fact of the matter is,

these whipsawing events on capitol hill regarding this nomination appear to be at least somewhat followed by the market here. because almost to the moment we got that bulletin from lisa murkowski. even though she voted against this cloture thing, ending debate, that did not necessarily telegraph a no vote on judge kavanaugh. that she was still undecided and then all of a sudden, we recouped 30, 35 points. again i don't want to overread into these things but the possibility this could be weighing on markets, i can't think could be easily dismiss the. we have former ohio secretary of state ken blackwell and democratic strategist howard franklin. ken to you, and the possibility of this vote doesn't go the judge's way, then what? >> neil if in fact it went that way, you would have seen the

intensity of the republican base, and what we used to call reagan, conservative, pro-life, pro-second amendment. all of sudden that intensity goes up. not only matches the intensity on the democratic side already sky-high hit its ceiling i don't think what you see is this, one, the republicans increased their majority by at least two seats in the senate. and while we lose votes in the seats in the house, i don't think it will be more than 17, which would mean that we will have a more cohesive majority in the house. this is going to drive republican and conservative turnout up, regardless of whether he makes it for not, but i think he is going to make it.

neil: i suspect this will drive out passionate voters in both parties t could mean we could have one of the stronger participating midterm election contests in quite some time. what do you think? >> i would disagree with something that ken mentioned. i don't think we've seen the zenith or ceiling for democratic involvement or enthusiasm. i think if and when judge kavanaugh becomes justice kavanaugh, we'll have even more whipsawing of leadership inside of the party. all outside groups i think one distinction i make between republicans and democratic enthusiasm in this midterm election is that democrats have been enthused and excited about voting and about calling up the president for at least a year. they have been winning special elections up and down the ballot. contesting special elections we have really no business even contesting. i think that sustained enthusiasm and momentum will be much more than a match for whatever republicans are able to

muster especially if they get what they want and can go home and take their ball with them after this vote. neil: ken, you could flip it around and say if the judge doesn't make it, it will really galvanize republican voters who felt he was treated unfairly and expressed their wrath at the polls and came out in record numbers. what do you think? >> yeah. this has been an assault on civility. the chasing down of senators, of the extreme dishave shun. one of the things, we will see in this election in november is that we will see this being reduced to what sort of america do you want? one that respects the rule of law, one that is moving towards civility or do you want this sort of shenanigans that have been pulled by the left and the democratic party? i, let me just say, neil, i think it is very important that we establish this, this assault

on judge kavanaugh's daughters, his wife, his mother, you know, women are not a monolithic group. i believe that when it is all said and done, this whole scene is going to be the death knell of the democratic party as we know it. neil: guys, i -- >> i have a to laugh a little bit here. neil: howard i will go to you on that. i'm getting update from cnn senator murkowski was explaining her vote to reporters leaving the floor which she said it was the most difficult evaluation she ever had to make but here is something interesting, why the markets could be backtracking this, i'm one saying this might not be based on truth at all, i go on what i see are developments and real time reaction on part of the markets. he not the right man for the court at this time. now whether that jibes with her

officially undecided, separately making this comment, could telegraph a no vote on the judge is anyone's guess. people already interpreted that to mean she is a no vote. that he will have to rely on other undecideds ultimately a vote for the judge but that is why all of sudden we brought this down to a market that shaved 40 points off its losses to a market now edging back up to where we were. i'm making that leap. no one else is. i'm just trying to understand the gyrations of the market. please don't put much stock in that. i'm trying to connect dots when i see them. howard, i rudely interrupted you, if you she ends up being a no vote vote, added pressure on joe manchin will make a statement, whether that is on the floor or the tweet what have you, i would be the only democrat, presumably the only democrat right now, officially undecided who would, who is left to get a sense where he is coming from. if he is a yes, obviously that

eases a little bit of pressure because they can afford to lose maybe one more republican, but your thoughts? >> yeah. i guess looking at the procedural vote there is a little bit of wiggle room here. i tend to agree one thing that ken mentioned earlier, looks very likely with tomorrow's vote he will pass, no additional shenanigans for a moment. i had to laugh for a moment. anyone who lived through the first two years trump presidency, call this loss of civility hasn't been paying attention. there is issues with civility on both sides. kavanaugh made some, some concessions in his op-ed in as much as saying so but i don't think we'll see a whole lot of civility voters showing up in the midterm elections. i think the people who are fired up about this election have taken as much as they want from donald trump and from this congress and i think that is really where the enthusiasm and the fire is coming from this november. neil: you could just easily

argue, ken, people on the right who feel they have been treated civilly, right? >> give me a break. economic growth, job creation, you know, securing our borders. here is the challenge. people don't turn out in terms of intensity because they are comfortable. donald trump's agenda made america you know comfortable again. what has in fact intensified the turnout is, has been this attack on the left and this advocacy of a move towards socialism which in fact people will come out and say, we don't want to be the next venezuela. neil: guys, wish which had more time. unfortunately we not. i appreciate you taking the tile. as they were speaking, very amiably i point out, we're getting word jeff flake will be a yes on jeff kavanaugh. by my math leaves uncertain

despite back and forth comments, lisa murkowski appearing no vote, officially goes down as undecided. real attention on susan collins of maine, making a statement at 3:00 p.m. today. joe manchin of the democrat of west virginia, due to make a statement either before the floor or tweeting it out up to or by that time. we'll have more after this.

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that okay with you, jake? get a portfolio that works for you now and as your needs change from td ameritrade investment management. neil: we are down 241 points right now. a lot of that has to do, not exclusively, but a lot with a 10-year note at around 3.25%. that is highest in 10 years. could add roughly, depending what borrowing rate, consumer rate, two points to that, for a mortgage. because usually they are two points over what the prevailing 10-year is. mortgage rates in the depth of the recession were around 3%, we're now looking at 5 to 5.25%. still very, very low but not what they were, and that shock to the system that worries a lot of folks who see them going higher and that is because of a strong economy which in the past has been greeted as good news

but right now worrisome news and then you add, in my opinion, folks, write it down with pencil, folks, quickly erase it, it means nothing, added drama going on capitol hill. the markets would not like to see any surprises here. doesn't matter whether you like judge kavanaugh or no, they don't like uncertain tip of a supreme court seat still unknown what could be months or more of uncertainty. and right now it is as close as a tick. so anything that makes this prospect look a little better, as markets come off the lows. when we got confirmmation jeff flake looks like he definitely will be a yes vote, they come off their lows, just after we had gotten word right now that lisa murkowski, who looked like a certain no, might not be a no and back to a no. you can understand the gyrations here. fact of the matter it is not just rates. that part is just my opinion. our experts know far more and

they join us, gary kaltbaum and "fbn:am" co-host lauren simonetti. if this did not go through, if this nomination did not go through i would imagine it would be unexpected development. maybe they can live with that, maybe they can't, but i don't think it is something they have been counting on. >> there is so much uncertainty with this white house, neil. i disagree with her. neil: cut her mic please, guys? >> you got me. i thought that was for real. you had a great shot when you first introduced the segment, showed the dow sinking and showed 10-year yield spiking. happens at same time the low of the session for the dow as we hit a new seven-year high for 10-year treasury yield. more after rate story. no big deal, we're moving towards normalization of rates. november, tricky times after

midterms. we see traditionally a gain of broader market on average, regardless, neil, which party wins. so i think yes, the kavanaugh nomination and confirmmation sun certainty for investors but we have so much uncertainty? trade is another one. neil: you're right. gary, what about you? we talk about and "wall street journal" is reporting this as well, that midterm elections markets do pretty well. most of their oomph condition come long before those elections so i could see that continuing. i could see it getting dinged a little bit one way or the other and we would still be up, but having said that what is weighing on these markets? >> i'm just on record i agree with everything neil cavuto says. >> no, he doesn't. neil: there you go. >> neil, it is not just interest rates, it is energy prices also. gas prices are up 50 cents over the last year. that is $50 billion out of the consumer and if it stays up that

continues at $10 billion for every 10 cents. you add in the interest rate front, as far as markets, as soon as we broke out of range, money flies out of stocks into -- excuse me, money fly out of stocks because of the worry and the competition for the money. so you have two things at work. and then you add in, i don't think it has to do whether kavanaugh gets in or not, just watching these people, saying wait a minute, these are the people deciding on the future of this country? we're all worried about what is going on there. that does not help the situation. simple, cost of capital is going up on everything, that affects earnings, affects, profits, affects markets, affect economy, and that is what you're seeing to a certain extent. neil: i do know to lauren's point, first sign of trouble was the housing sector, a lot of homebuilders taking it on the chin and a lot heavily into

mortgage lending clearly taking it on the chin. it is clear that it is slowing down. we've seen that running six months in existing home sales. there are other factors, lauren. is there a sense that the benefit of this improving economy now has to fight headwinds of higher interest rates that go along with it? >> absolutely, fed has been pretty clear telegraphing they think the economy is strong and data has some been pretty muscular. now the bond market is kind of realizing, oh, we'll catch up with the fed and fed is right, we will have a fourth interest rate hike in december. there was an 80% chance that was going to happen yesterday. if you look at fed funds futures. today it is 87%. normalization of rates is actually coming. bonds you see catching up with the fed here. neil: real quickly, gary, you and i can remember when rates were much higher -- >> a lot higher. neil: before lauren was born. >> i was born but i didn't have

a mortgage. neil: there you go. perspective is everything, right? this is jolt to people used to ridiculously low rates. we're getting back to a norm that might not be helpful to folks, right? >> the words are used to. what the economy has been used to. has now changed. that is a worry. let me give you by the numbers. a 200,000-dollars mortgage now has increased interest payments by 30 to $40,000 over the life because of the move we have just seen. if it continues higher, it goes higher. so you add in energy prices, with interest rates, it's a one-two punch that has to be watched because markets have been used to much lower on both. so, time to watch this closely. and look the market was already in trouble a couple weeks ago. half the market has not worked. housing stocks topped out nine months ago. interest rate sensitive areas have topped out a while back. housing-related stocks like

whirlpools are at new yearly lows. something is going on here and we must be careful about it. neil: guys i want to thank you both. lauren, i'm still weighing whether we ever get you back on. no, seriously, guys, great job. a couple things we're following now, down to precious few. we're awaiting of course susan collins officially undecided of maine. we're told she make as statement at 3:00 p.m. one the other ones, jeff flake has indicated he will vote up for judge kavanaugh to make him a justice. still officially on the fence right now, joe manchin, democrat of west virginia and if you think about it, lisa murkowski. we've gotten a lot of mixed signals there, but we don't know officially where she stands. looks like a no. that is not a given. susan collins and joe manchin are the two wildcards. we've have more after this. s ad.

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neil: all right. jeff flake, by the way has indicated he is going to be yes on judge kavanaugh, but with the caveat unless something big changes. now we don't know what that something big would be. but if you accept him as a yes vote, and you look at susan collins and joe manchins unknowns for the time-being and lisa murkowski even as no vote in that event. you would be down to 49 yes, sir votes here, where the role of steen daines, republican from montana, is more crucial. he would have to be there but wants to walk his daughter down the aisle at her wedding. they could delay it out. he indicated he would support the judge. they need him there to get to 50 votes. all of sudden to get to the tiebreaker with vice president pence filling that role. but you can't lose anymore. "weekly standard" deputy

managing editor, kelly jane torrence. how do you think this is all going down? susan collins making a statement 3:00 p.m. today. how does it look? >> it's a great question, neil. we never had quite this much excitement going into the hours before the vote, have we? even with the obamacare repeal it wasn't this quite exciting. i think he is going to be confirmed. we're seeing last minute attempts to try to delate it even more. one group saying hey, you need to delay this we'll have emails coming out about his role in the bush administration on the surveillance program. people are trying everything they can to either stop this or delay it. but i really do think it is going to happen. neil: all right. there is the issue of senator daines out there in montana out there for his daughter es wedding. they can leave it open to fly

him to washington to vote formally on this how would that likely add to the drama, aside from adding more hours to it. >> i have to ask if he is flying commercial, what airline, right? other airlines are less reliable than others, neil. neil: that's a good point? >> does very a private jet there? there are airlines that have a very bad track record. they can't have one person gone even for the biggest day for his daughter's life. that is how close it will be. it is a little bit disappointing it is that close. that we can't have any consensus on anything in washington. either all republicans or no democrats or the other way around. that looks like what is happening here, with the exception it seems as you mentioned of joe manchin. of course that is because the voters of west virginia overwhelmingly in favor of nominating kavanaugh. he has a very tough race this fall. so a lot of people say we don't want to politicize this process of the supreme court nominee.

it is politicized by the fact, people have to worry, a lot of people have to worry are they going to be reelected and how will this affect it? neil: i'm doing the math. it is always suspect, you're keeping track better than i am. if susan collins ends up being a no and joe manchin ends up being a no and take a growing consensus that lisa merck is -- lisa murkowski is no, doesn't matter whether senator daines flies back or the vice president is the tiebreaker it is over? >> that's right, neil. republicans can only lose two. it is looking that close. and, you know, i wonder if susan collins, she is making statement at 3:00 p.m. today, i wonder if she has decided yet? i think there is soul-searching going on for people. there is political calculation. people are worried about the midterms, maybe them personally being reelected but i think that is for a lot of people a bit after conscience thing here.

this is a big deal. this guy will have a lifetime appointment on highest court of the land. your viewers know from your reporting, supreme court has a lot more affect on people because it is gotten a lot more activist and congress ceded, given some of it is authority to regulatory agencies and others doing things that get before the court. so this is a big deal. you know i sort of think a lot of times politicians like to exaggerate things. this is the election of a lifetime, it usually isn't but in this case it's a big deal. this is, this is the justice that could make the court a pretty solid conservative majority. i think pretty solid because people sort of assume, well we have 5-4 conservative court if kavanaugh is appointed. keep in mind john roberts voted of course in favor of the government in the obamacare cases. you can never know how somebody is going to vote.

neil: there are no givens. by the way on senators that committed themselves, jeff flake could be one elevator ride away from flipping. >> isn't that crazy something like that affects vote. neil: these are tortured decisions i get that. there is never given until a vote is in. thank you very, very much, kelly. always good learning from you. that is where we stand right now. a lot of people will focus on two clear unknowns for the time-being, susan collins, republican from maine, joe manchin, democrat of west virginia. they seem to be by consensus always changing the two official unknowns. if you take as a given jeff flake will be a yes and lisa murkowski from alaska looks increasingly like a no, that is what it comes down to. to lose both of those unknown senators, their positions unknown, susan collins, joe manchin, whether the father of the bride makes it from montana, it is over for the judge unless one of those people ends up being a yes. more after this.

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>> i am jeff flock in chicago talking gas prices on the way up. take a look here. glad you're not here, 3.79 a gallon in chicago. over 2.90 for the average gallon of gas in the u.s. and that's sparked some talk rolling back taxes on those gas gallons that you buy. you know california has the second highest gas tax, state gas tax in the nation, 55-cents a gallon. proposition six on the ballot, rolling back 12 cents of the gas tax. it went up six cents last year. the proposition six would take it away. where is the cheapest? if you look at states like alaska, missouri, mississippi, lowest gas taxes in the nation. this of course is state gas

taxes, not the federal gas tax. that remains 18.4 cents. last president to raise it a man named reagan in 1983 as you know, neil, federal gas tax funds roads and bridge as little bit. maybe that is why they're crumbling a little bit. president trump is perhaps favor of five cents gallon increase of federal gas tax, over the five years, that would fund infrastructure. maybe not a bad idea. you want to make sure the money gets spent wisely. neil. neil: that is the big question. can you spend it wisely? can it just go to that? easy to suggest from gas prices going lower and not as easy when they're high and going a lot higher. thank you so much, jeff flock. go to republican kansas senator jerry moran on the drama on capitol hill, we're getting word if you just do the numbers, jeff flake ace yes.

lisa murkowski looks like she will be a no. that leaves to susan collins, republican from maine and joe manchin from west begin, if either one of those individuals were to vote no, this effectively could be over and be no need for a tiebreaker on the part of the vice president. having said all of that, what does your gut tell you, senator? >> instincts tell me once you vote for the motion to cloture as just happened, unlikely you change your vote and that would be the circumstance in most instances but this is a unique circumstance but i still would analyze it saying that people who voted yes to move forward are people who are going to vote yes for confirmation. neil: okay. we will get an indication of that from susan collins. you're pretty good at reading the tea leaves and sentiment of a lot of your colleagues. most people thought last week at this time we wouldn't see a delay in the vote. of course jeff flake moved by

some passionate demonstrators outside of an elevator did add this one week extension so the fbi could talk to witnesses. so there is always the possibility he could flip. but what is your sense tell you? >> my understanding is that senator flake has indicated, barring some unknown fact that would now arise, that he is, he will vote for confirmmation. my best guess is, and i thought for several days, several weeks perhaps, that ultimately senator flake would be a yes. i can't imagine that judge kavanaugh when he become as justice wouldn't reflect senator flake's viewpoint about the role of the court in today's country. so, again it is not my job to predict anybody else. they are a united states senator and can do anything they want and should represent their constituents and belief system to the best of their ability and i want them to do that. so not for me to predict what anybody is going to do but again my sense is, i counted votes for

a long time both here and in kansas, and my sense is confirmmation occurs. neil: all right, senator, thank you very much on a very, very busy day and weekend for you. we do appreciate it. it is always about crunching numbers and stocks and market, earnings and all of that. republicans have a 51-49 edge in the united states senate. if it is looking increasingly lisa murkowski going to be a no, that bring the edge down so to speak to 50. you can't lose anyone else. so if you're down to susan collins and she says no, and joe manchin, democrat of west virginia who might not want to be in the position of being the 50th vote, securing this with a tie-breaking vote on part of the vice president, then it would be over. to offset susan collins and potential no vote, you really do need joe manchin. if she is a yes vote, you don't need him as much. that is what it comes down to.

need 51 votes including vice president of the united states, when it comes down to that, you need steve daines, republican from montana who will be at his daughter's wedding tomorrow, in fact bringing her down the aisle. i'm sure there are people looking at possibility of doing a full-blown cut-out of him on wheels if that would secure a vote. already one of the guests at the wedding, a close friend, representative ford indicated that he has a plain available to take the senator to washington if that is necessary. so far no one said it is. we'll see. what would it look like... ...if we listened more? could the right voice,

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and this is the only plan of its kind endorsed by aarp. that's the icing on the cake... i love cake. finding the right aarp medicare supplement plan for you could be just a quick call away. so...call. neil: all right. we are right now at 50 votes for judge kavanaugh to become a justice, if you just take as a given right now lisa murkowski is a definite no. we say we're at 50 votes because a lot of people are assuming susan collins is going to be a yes, but if she turns out to be a no, and it gets down to 49 no-yes votes. there will be pressure on democratic joe manchin to be the 50th vote, tie ultimately broken by the vice president of the united states to get 51. one way or the other you need to get to 51 votes, including or

not, the vice president of the united states. without that it ain't doing to happen. that would put added pressure on joe manchin, who will put out a statement that adds to the drama 3:00 p.m. eastern time today. hear from susan collins republican from maine, joins lisa murkowski pretty much telegraphed a no vote, then all bets are off. the markets are whipsawed on all of this. i must stress a lot more on interest rates better than seven-year highs, this matter and these inflection points we're showing here when it looked like it wasn't necessarily going the judge's way and then improving when it was and it was uncanny. to charlie gasparino, following all of this, but a lot to talk about but the judge effect. let's throw out an extreme here, he doesn't make it, then when? >> i don't think it will be an issue for the markets. the other thing if the judge doesn't make it, probably will have more conservative judge come in there, his replacement.

i think that is something that, that pro-life part of the democratic party will have to grapple with, i think it will be a woman. i keep forgetting her name but it was the other supreme court nominee that -- neil: amy barrett? >> yep, that's the one. she is very pro-life. so they, and it will be hard -- neil: in fact they avoided her in the end because they thought she was too conservative because a lot of republicans -- neil: he will be more easy to digest. >> he will be like roberts, roe vs. wade is established precedent. i'm a precedent guy. i will not overturn precedent. neil: there is the flip side might improve their prospect. >> yes. i spoke with somebody close to kavanaugh today, what is thinking inside the brain trust there, they're thinking this, this was at around 10:00. they're thinking manchin is a yes. collins is a yes.

flake, kind of flakes out at some point and murkowski is a no as well. neil: flake says he is a yes? >> well then, you have got some december -- neil: could be elevator ride. >> that is what they were preparing for, flake, manchin, flake and manchin are interesting in contrasts, here's why. flake is retiring. he is just totally annoyed the republican base on other things. he probably wants a tv gig at cnn, harvard professorship and a couple book deals. it is, you know, you could see why he might say no to build up those type of, those bonefides. neil: for now the fact that he has said he is a yes, last week we didn't know he would push this to the -- >> i agree. manchin, on other hand, west virginia, he has nothing to lose. schumer, if assumer screws with manchin, takes him off committees and stuff like that, he will be a republican. neil: you think he will change party. >> they're scared of that. he helps them build the

majority. he represents obviously a conservative state. neil: would he want to be the only democrat voting no, or would it be a badge honor. >> he has nothing to lose but his senate seat. colose that. neil: he talks he doesn't want to be the 50th seat. >> probably. but he has nothing to lose. this is monday morning quarterback. neil: replacing of justice, should kavanaugh not get it you don't think that will weigh on markets juan aor the other? they get what they want because they're confident the senate remains republican and get a nomination? >> might get some tradeoffs. i think some of that was in the markets. there was stuff you could debate the employment numbers. i keep hyping on this. wages were not very good. we didn't have great wage growth. unemployment number extremely low, multigenerational low. neil: 50 years. >> 50 years. still we didn't have that much jobs added to economy.

neil: prior month was ratcheted up. interesting you look at all bad news. >> market is digesting back and forth. neil, market is digesting higher rates. >> higher rates on top of that. neil: maybe kavanaugh. >> i don't know. neil: simonetti dismissed it. everyone is dismissing my theory. >> i made elon musk nuts yesterday. did you hear about that? i said that the sec is still investigating him. the minute i said this, right, i would say five minutes after it hit the tape he started going nuts on the sec, called them short seller enrichment. neil: he will be back to talk about how he is getting off christmas card lists at tesla after this. your company is constantly evolving.

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pnc brings you the resources of one of the nation's largest banks, and a local approach with a focus on customized insights. so you and your company are ready for today. neil: all right. we are watching very closely interest rates going up, up, up and stocks going down, down, down, and that is a relationship that in the past, has sometimes been consistent read of market troubles down the road. but sometimes it doesn't last very long and the markets merrily go up as interest rates continue to go up. not certainly over the last couple of days. we are watching the drama unfolding on capitol hill right now, where it is close as a tick to decide whether brett kavanaugh ever makes it to the united states supreme court. he lost a republican vote, lisa murkowski, looks like she will be a no. that brings it down to his having to keep susan collins on board of maine, and just for

extra insurance, possibly joe manchin, the democrat of west virginia. if he loses susan collins it's a moot point because then all of a sudden, you are talking serious trouble here. to edward lawrence on capitol hill with how it's all playing out. reporter: it's like a soap opera. i can tell you that senator jeff flake just told reporters that he would be a yes vote on the final confirmation vote unless something major happens. these procedural votes can sometimes be a preview of what's going to happen with the final vote. it's interesting how this one actually broke down. if you look at the swing votes that we are talking about with republican jeff flake and senator susan collins voting yes, collins says that she will announce how her final vote is after 3:00 p.m. senator murkowski voted no but republicans got democratic senator joe manchin to vote yes. senators are not bound to these votes and a lot can happen in the next 30 hours. that's why a number of folks, protesters, are going door to

door in this building, office to office, to try to swing votes one way or the other. to open the session, senator chuck grassley said there is no reason that anyone should vote no on kavanaugh. >> what left wing groups and their democratic allies have done to judge kavanaugh is nothing short of monstrous. reporter: democrats are now saying there was an incomplete fbi report and now saying they are questioning kavanaugh's temperament. >> judges are expected to be quote, even-handed, unbiased, impartial and courteous, end quote. however, at the hearing last week, we saw a man filled with anger and aggression. reporter: this is heading to a final vote with a little bit of a twist. the final vote could happen just before 5:00 tomorrow. however, the republican senator from montana is supposed to walk

his daughter down the aisle tomorrow, so the vote, if they need his vote, could end up being delayed until later. the vote can start just before 5:00 but then be held open in order to get the senator from montana back to washington, d.c. we do understand a representative friend of his who will also be at the wedding has offered his plane in order to fly him back if they need that vote. neil? neil: thank you very, very much. the white house is officially saying that it believes it has the votes or the senate will have the votes to confirm kavanaugh. we should stress here that again, if susan collins is a no, that brings the support for judge kavanaugh to 49 votes. you need 51 with the vice president in that event being the tie-breaker. you need 50 votes from somewhere and there is hope that would come from joe manchin, the democrat from west virginia. an uncomfortable position for a democrat to be in, no matter how

popular he is in his state, again, with the vice president of the united states providing the tie-breaker if he votes no and susan collins votes no, they don't need the vice president. it's over, it's not happening. that's how close we are. that is how little movement it takes just to make this either historic or, well, over. how likely is it from what you're hearing, francesca, that manchin and collins could end up being no? reporter: it's unclear what could potentially happen at some point tomorrow. we had the president giving tepid support to the process so far in the tweet we saw with him saying he's proud of the united states senate. we haven't seen the president appear on camera today and he wasn't supposed to. everything he has is closed press. now there's a real question as to whether he will speak to america or directly to those senators behind closed doors. we will have sarah sanders coming out here shortly to talk to reporters about that. neil: you know jeff flake has

said that he will be a yes vote. we always remember last week when it looked like he was set to vote out of committee the judge's name to be a supreme court justice and he added the wrinkle of the fbi investigation. he got it, was very influenced by protesters and women who had been abused outside an elevator. who's to say that might not change? he himself left it open for change. lisa murkowski could go from no potentially to yes. in other words, these are not iron-clad decisions, right? reporter: that's why the next 30 hours are so critical, neil. i know that yesterday, we had an opportunity to speak and we talked about the president's rally and whether or not he would talk about kavanaugh, and last night at that rally, we saw him really brush past the issue and bring it up only briefly. so the president really has his eye on this process, and the white house doesn't want to do anything that could make senators like jeff flake, who had previously hit out at the president over him doing an impression of christine ford at a rally. they are really trying very hard

not to do anything to get notices votes to combhainhange they are at the 51 they need currently and if everything goes ahead the way it is, brett kavanaugh will be confirmed saturday. neil: you mentioned the president and his early criticism of dr. ford. i'm wondering if that might have potentially moved lisa murkowski or they kind of know where the president is coming from on this and it was not a factor. reporter: she was one of the people, including flake and also senator collins, who seems a little uncomfortable with the impression the president did. now, the white house says he was just stating fact, he did nothing wrong and they refused to backtrack on that, but again, we didn't see him do that at last night's rally. he will have a rally on saturday in topeka, kansas but whether or not that rally is after or before when this vote could take place, we still don't know. he could be celebrating potentially or the president could have a lot on his mind depending how the vote goes. neil: real quickly, throwing a lot of questions at you, i'm

curiousmanchin, the democrat of west virginia. the pressure could be on him especially in the event of a collins no vote. would he want to be in that role, the 50th vote that would pave the way for the vice president to break the tie and make this guy a supreme court justice? reporter: he is up for re-election next month, so this is something that -- neil: he's got capital to spare here, right? reporter: yes. we also did see him vote to end debate today but no one should necessarily take that as a yes vote for kavanaugh, because senators may just want to move on to the final question on judge kavanaugh. so what he decides to end up doing, we don't know. but the white house and the president have put a lot of pressure on joe manchin and other red state democrats to give the president a yes vote on the supreme court justice nominee. neil: close as a tick. great job, as always, my friend. no doubt we will be going back

as situations warrant. you might have heard about heidi heitkamp yesterday, the democratic senator from the beautiful state of north dakota, indicating that despite the fact it could politically hurt her, she's a no vote on the judge and will remain a no vote on the judge. whether that automatically benefits a guy who is already leading in the polls in that state, anyone's guess. we did put out a call as we have throughout the last couple weeks to heidi heitkamp's office, have not heard back. all right. to you, kevin cramer, one of the things that's come up, your opponent decided this was the right thing to do even though it could politically hurt her. she was trailing and is trailing in the polls substantially even without this decision. what do you think motivated her? >> well, i don't know what motivated, i don't know what's in her head. i do know this, that it's a violation of everything her campaign has been based on. she has tried to make a brand of being the independent from north

dakota as opposed to the democrat, the person that reaches across the aisle and votes with president trump when he's right for north dakota, yet she's ignored polls in north dakota that have shown, including the fox news poll, that have shown people by a margin of more than two to one want her to vote for brett kavanaugh. she can no longer make the claim she's independent of chuck schumer but rather, she is independent of the people of north dakota. what motivated her, i do not know. neil: let me ask you, if you become the senator of north dakota, you will face situations with some tough votes where maybe a good majority, maybe overwhelming majority in your state feel one way but you morally, ethically, feel another. which do you cave to? >> yeah, i think we always have to be committed to our conscience. if you're not, then you probably shouldn't be in leadership. but we are also representative republic and we make our case to the voters every election. in my case it's been every two years now, it will be every six

years if i choose to do this again and i win this time, so it is a tough balance many times. but on something as big as this, the supreme court of the united states, and you are up for re-election, i think listening to the people that you represent is pretty darned important. but she's also mishandled it all the way up to this point. the fact that even not voting for cloture, voting for cloture seems to be the easiest vote in the world, ending debate and moving on. but not even doing that i think brings into question who it is she actually thinks she's working for. neil: well, i don't carry anyone's water here. i think her argument was it wasn't time to end the debate, that there were holes in that fbi study. who knows. >> but, but neil, here's the point. the point is, though, that there's always going to be holes until they come up with something that says that he's not fit to be a supreme court justice. neil: let me -- we can argue over the details and why someone votes the way they do on cloture, whathave you, but it

did go along party lines, to your point. not totally, but in the case of lisa murkowski, she voted against ending it and might be telegraphing as seems to be the case a no vote on this. she is the only no republican vote right now. susan collins could be, we don't know, of maine. that would put the added pressure on joe manchin to be a yes vote or this thing doesn't happen. if it ends up coming down to that, what does that tell you about this nominee, about this moment, about this whole saga? >> first thing it tells me is we may not ever get a conservative that chooses to be on the supreme court again if that's what happens. the other thing it tells us is that brutality and rioting and protests actually do work, and that's unfortunate. the other thing it tells me is we need more republicans in the united states senate so that we have a bigger cushion so that for individuals like susan collins, whose political

environment back home is different than mine would be here in north dakota, we want to be able to provide them some opportunity to do the things that are to be reflective of their constituents, so to me, if you want to talk about the politics of it, this is a good reason why we need more republicans in the united states senate, particularly from middle america. neil: kevin cramer, republican of north dakota senate candidate, thank you very, very much. >> thanks for the opportunity. neil: bond yields are rising and borrowing costs are rising, too. everything from car loans to mortgages and home equity loans just rose substantially. put it this way. if you are at 3.25% on a ten-year note and add two points on a similar based mortgage, you are up to 5.25%. to put that in perspective in the depths of the recession, that was well under 3%. that is a substantial leap. nothing like the mid-teen rates that were dominating the 1980s, but for a whole new generation of buyers and people who, for the better part of a decade,

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neil: all right. the jobs report came out for the month of september. there are some surprises in there, low on the new jobs, very, very low, historic low on

the unemployment rate but we don't just leave it at that. nor does deirdre bolton. reporter: 3.7%, you said, lowest level since december 1969. so president nixon in office at that time. 134,000 jobs added to the u.s. economy, fewer than any this year. lot of economists talking about hurricane florence and that basically caused job losses in restaurants and bars. so workers only get paid in the hospitality industry if they show up. in fact, 300,000 workers told the government that basically, they were affected in some way by the weather. spinning forward, we want to show you where the jobs were. you are going to see business services on the next screen here, professional services. these are lawyers, they are accountants. this category was the big winner. you can see 54,000 jobs added, almost double any of the other individual categories. so essentially, as i mentioned,

engineers, part of that as well, lawyers, accountants, consult t consultan consultants, architects. if you look at wages, wage growth pretty much in line with forecasts. we put the month on month number for you here, year on year up 2.8% so in theory, this should keep investors who are very worried about inflation a little calmer, as will this next figure which is the labor force participation rate. even though it came in, you know, 62.7, sort of holding steady, it is only slightly above decades low numbers. in historical terms, we are still really near the smallest share of adults participating in the labor market since about the 1970s. economists saying the fact there are so many americans on the sidelines, this is part of the reason why we have seen actually until last month's set of data, the august set of data, pretty muted wage growth, because there are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines. neil: wow. that's eye-popping. reporter: yeah. yeah. think like shag carpets, lots of

other fun stuff. neil: i remember it well. tv remote was a new thing then. wow, look at this. reporter: fancy. neil: oh, boy. youth. all right. let's take a look where we stand right now. the markets don't know how to digest this. more on the backup in interest rates. craig smith, what is going on here and how long will it keep going on? because in the past, we have kind of ignored a backup in rates because hey, that's a sign of great economy. over the last couple days, they are reassessing that. what do you think? >> well, neil, i tell you, i think about it sitting and listening to the intro, i remember several years ago we talked about how until we saw interest rates get over 3% we are not in a full recovery. to me, these interest rates are indicating we have a goldilocks economy and the fed feels comfortable in raising interest rates and getting them back to an area where, if we do have a slowdown, they have some weapons in the toolchest to turn things around. i like what i see happening with

the fed, and quite frankly, i like a lot of things that are happening right now. sunday, things will dramatically change in the world of trade when we pass that usmca. now china just doesn't have to worry about us, they got to worry about mexico, canada, japan, the european union. i think china's in a real box now. neil: that's interesting. you know, joe, when i first saw the report come out this morning, my immediate read, the bond market might like this because it makes it less likely with the less than expected jobs gain that the fed would at least aggressively raise rates as it has been. that has not been the read of the markets and i'm wondering why. >> i think what you are seeing is the fed has been doing two things to support the economy. one is the easing, the other is keeping rates lower than they might otherwise be. they are now attacking both of them. they will be reducing their balance sheet by $50 billion a

month, it's a big number, then secondarily, high likelihood of a december rate hike. and you have tariffs on top of it, and the low unemployment rate. all of those things start to put pressure on pricing. most importantly, what you are seeing is an impact on the stock market, so the small cap stocks not doing as well. emerging market stocks not doing as well. i would suggest you look forward, you want to think about when you invest and be more tilted toward the more defensive names, bigger names, safer names, u.s. names, because again, high rates have unintended consequences, especially if they happen relatively quickly and i think we have been very accustomed to quite low rates for a long time and it's going to take awhile to adjust to higher rates. neil: the question is how much higher they go. we don't know, greg, but there does seem to be an inflection point we used to assign 3% to a ten-year note and people are saying now maybe it's 4% ten-year note. what do you think of that? >> well, i will date myself but i remember when the ten-year was

three times this level. neil: you're right. we are in that same can, young man. go ahead. >> so you know, i really don't think that there's an inflection point, quite frankly. i think jerome powell is doing a pretty good job in assessing how far he can and can't go. look, this president, everyone says you're biased, you're a pro-trump guy. hey, you look at what this man has done. he's renegotiated nafta. he's in the process of negotiating with the chinese. we haven't seen a 2,000 or 3,000 point selloff in the stock market or fears of a trade war. this man is doing an incredible job, neil, and the market is rewarding him with performance right now. i do agree with joe, i think it's time to get defensive right now. i don't think this is a time to be taking any chances in these markets. i think it's a fool's errand to even attempt to do so right now. neil: if you get defensive, part of getting defensive is you have a lot of stocks that have run far and fast. people want apple and amazon, et cetera, the ringleaders on the tech side that really led the

market averages disproportionately helping the s&p's advance, certainly the dow's advance. what do you tell them to do? sell some of those shares or, you know, what do you do? >> well, two things you must do. number one, make sure you are balanced so your target risk in your entire portfolio is appropriate because with bonds going down and stocks going up, you are probably overweighted to stocks significantly. make sure your overall target risk profile is right. neil: what does that mean? just to be clear, what does it mean, if you are overweight, say you have a portfolio that is overweight in technology but you still love apple and amazon, say you still love netflix and alphabet. you don't want to ease up on those. do you buy more of something else? how do you do that? >> so say you are 60/40 stocks to bonds. your stocks have gone up a lot this year, your bonds have gone down this year. it might be 70/30 instead of 60/40. you need to rebalance so your overall target on your entire portfolio is appropriate.

in other words, go back to 60/40. the second thing you need to do is look at your underlying allocations. things that have done really, really well up until now are probably not going to be what leads you going forward. small caps have done very, very well. you might want to pare that back so you are back to target allocations because things that will do well going forward, remember when you have higher rates the things that do better are bigger in nature. bigger companies have the ability to adapt their balance sheets a lot better. i would also suggest when you have higher rates, the expectations with stocks go down. if you think back to when rates were a lot higher, the stock market didn't do quite as well, valuations go down and p.e.s are on the higher level. you want to be in stocks like health care, energy, financials that do well with this. a lot of things that have done well are probably not going to do as well going forward. neil: all right, i'm sorry, we are tight for time. i apologize. greg, how do you play this in

readjusting a portfolio potentially to deal with these higher rate head winds, if they indeed prove to be head winds? >> the rates are below neutral right now. i think they have to go higher to get to neutral. joe's right. traditionally, when interest rates go up, stock markets peel back. i don't think that's going to happen particularly in this case, because i don't think jerome powell will move them fast enough to cause that to happen. if he sees any weakness in the market, i think he will back off on raising rates. very interesting to see how he's going to handle the draining of the balance sheet as joe brought up earlier. with them reducing bond purchases and everything, it's going to be a real tightrope. i got to tell you, i think jerome powell is doing a pretty decent job. i think what we have to worry about long-term is recently, we have been winning the currency wars with the strong dollar but i don't think that's going to be the case on long-term. as the dollar continues its long-term slide, you are going to see people be affected by that. i would be more inclined to put

my portfolio to an inflation protected portfolio, even though there isn't any inflation right now. it's coming back, mark my words. neil: guys thank you both very much. speaking of jerome powell, he created waves earlier in the week before all of this kerfuffle in the credit markets when he said the federal reserve has a long way to go before rates would be neutral. in other words, signaling that i'm going to have to hike rates a lot more than i earlier thought. that rattled them then but maybe in retrospect, rattling more now.

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neil: all right. reports that a lot of facebook workers were outraged when a top executive showed up to support brett kavanaugh. the guy had to apologize for it. susan li with the details. reporter: facebook expected to hold a town hall meeting today with mark zuckerberg and sheryl sandberg in attendance, after hundreds of facebook employees expressed anger over joel

kaplan's attendance at the brett kavanaugh testimony last week. he is the faceless head of global policy. you see him in the background circled for you. you may recognize him in the background behind mark zuckerberg during his testimony to congress in april earlier this year. facebook employees think kaplan's attendance not only represented support for kavanaugh but may have also represented facebook's endorsement for kavanaugh as well and this has ignited debate inside facebook on numerous issues such as the #metoo movement and trump era politics. kaplan has written an apology on the company's internal forum saying i want to apologize, i recognize this moment is a deeply painful one internally and externally. kaplan has been a friend of judge kavanaugh for 20 years, both were in each other's wedding parties. initially kaplan said this was a personal matter and took a personal day off. the ceo and founder mark zuckerberg answering questions at an employee meeting, even

saying kaplan had not broken company rules by attending but sheryl sandberg who wrote "lean in" seen as a leader for women's rights reportedly isn't happy with kaplan's attendance. reports suggest she thinks it was a mistake for limb him to a the testimony, given his role at the company but employees want her to be more public with her views. i want to read out her latest -- i guess her latest quote. we support people's right to do what they want in their personal time but this was by no means a straightforward case. as you see, there is still a lot of debate inside facebook and across the country. back to you. neil: so the flipside would be if he were at an event with senator dianne feinstein, that would not be a problem? >> i would probably think that is less controversial at this point, yes. neil: that's not fair or balanced. susan li, thank you very, very much. we are looking at what's going on right now on capitol hill and this tick-tock to a vote sometime tomorrow, probably

around late afternoon on judge kavanaugh and whether he makes it. to former assistant district attorney in new york, john sale. good to have you. amid the back and forth on this, a lot of senators are harkening back to an fbi report and these witnesses, these nine individuals, and that it wasn't enough to hear democrats tell it, it was enough to hear republicans tell it. what exactly are they continuing to read? >> i'm trying to find something good out of all the acrimony and this is coming down to a razor-thin vote, whether it will be by one vote, what can i say good about it. maybe it's a good example of separation of powers, how our republic operates. the whole thing is unnecessary. it could have been avoided and i don't want to be critical, although i am being critical of senator feinstein that when dr. ford, and i am not at all unsympathetic to dr. ford, my wife, who is my law partner, has

represented victims of sexual violence and i understand those issues and we are sensitive to it, but when dr. ford came first to her congressperson, woman, then to senator feinstein, what's the reason to come to those kind of officials? there's no privilege, there's no privacy there, and i think senator feinstein might have said to her privately, might have said dr. ford, i feel for you, i realize you are torn, but you are telling me about a serious crime, how can you ask me to sit on this. don't i have an obligation, this is a serious felony to certainly tell the other members of the committee, and even to go to the fbi. it's not like going to your priest or rabbi or husband or best friend. so when you go to a public official, i'm not criticizing dr. ford, but maybe senator feinstein, in hindsight, if she had told people about this sooner, we wouldn't be in this terrible chaos and confusion and

ambivalence right now. neil: well, would have, should have, could have to your point but all good. let me ask you, though, you are aware obviously brett kavanaugh put out a letter, an argument in the "wall street journal" today, realizing that he might have been a little emotional and intemperate but the gist of it is you would be, too. people aren't buying that. they are saying the temperament issue is real and it changed their minds. former justice powell, all of 98 years old, saying that alone disqualified him to be a judge on the court. whether he makes it to the court or not, he will always have an asterisk attached to his name now and i don't know if that's right. >> i think it was justice stevens. you're right, but there are rules that have existed since the republic started and one of them is a judge, prospective judge, has to keep his mouth

shut. but we are in the 21st century and he came under an unimaginable attack and he's human. i think watching the hearings, the first set of hearings, he was remarkable. but then the second set of hearings, i think he was a little bit intemperate. neil: i can understand it. >> that's why i think the editorial was okay. neil: i know justice john paul stevens was saying that bothered him and on any normal day, any normal behavior, any normal set of hearings, he would be most correct, but i just felt it was a different standard held to him than, say, ruth bader ginsburg who frequently lashed out at president trump from the bench and i'm just saying is that fair, is that balanced? >> no, of course not. they have talked about whether or not because of judge kavanaugh's strong views on executive power, he would have to recuse himself if a matter came before him involving the president. justice ginsburg called the president a faker so would she have to recuse herself?

nobody is asking that question. i think we have to just trust our judiciary that they are going to do the right thing and if they are biased, they will recuse themselves. if they are not, they will not. neil: it is amazing, the double standard. i'm all for covering all of these things but we better make sure we cover all of these things from the statements that might look intemperate on the guy who wants to sit on the supreme court and the statements made by those who already do. >> i'm concerned about what's going to happen assuming he is confirmed that it may not be over. neil: you're right about that. i don't think it is. >> i want the american people to have faith in the judicial system. neil: all right. sorry for the confusion. i think you're right, it leaves a lot open there no matter what side you're on here. be careful what you started here. >> how about if the democrats win the house, how about the beginning of impeachment proceedings? neil: they look at that seriously. we're not there yet. but a lot coming on. very good to have you.

we will watch this very, very closely. we should let you know we are still waiting to hear and will later from susan collins from maine. we are getting an announcement from her and joe manchin, the democrat of west virginia. they are the only unknowns. if they are both no, the senator out of montana will be at his daughter's wedding tomorrow, he could stay there. it's a moot point. ♪

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rates, talking about possible fears of increasing inflation. that's affecting the ten-year yield right now which is up 3.24%, often seen as a benchmark for fixed mortgage rates, car loans, student loans. then of course, also, you have the 30 yield raising higher. we are expecting one more rate hike and possibly several more in 2019, and that's the fear, the overtightening that could possibly arrive from the fed. there is a bright spot and that's within utilities. on the s&p, 8 of 10 sectors right now are down but utilities are up, often seen as a flight to safety. you are seeing pg & e corp up just about 2.3%. first energy, duke, the typical ones that usually go up when markets are down at the moment. i just wanted to end on gold. we don't really talk about gold. it hasn't climbed up over the last little while but this week it's doing better. you are seeing it up four bucks today, it was up higher yesterday. a few reasons.

it's often a flight to safety when markets are down but there's also talk that russia could be buying more gold and then thirdly, yesterday i saw some big repositioning on the market so that's pushing gold a little bit higher. overall, it seems the consensus here is that this is a little blip and we still have 11 weeks left in the quarter to go so there's still possibility for markets to climb higher. neil: thank you very, very much. meantime, keeping an eye on tesla. the s.e.c. really is done with the company. charlie gasparino has more. hey, charlie. >> they're not done. we reported this yesterday, that the s.e.c. is still looking at tesla, particularly the production, stated production goals on the model 3 and whether tesla is profitable or not. they are looking at musk's past statements to see if they were truthful. after we reported that yesterday, this is what happened last night, musk went completely off the charts. even more so than he usually does. i think i sparked it because

when my report hit, literally within five minutes of it hitting the tape, he started going after the s.e.c., called the s.e.c. the short seller enrichment community or commission, excuse me, and now it seems that he might have violated his settlement agreement with the s.e.c. based on that. just so you know. neil: really? >> remember, he entered into a settlement agreement over the funding secured tweet. you neither admit nor deny. you can make a case that he maybe is denying his guilt in that, by that tweet, saying they are only in it to enrich the short sellers. i can tell you that my sources that are close to the s.e.c. tell me they are kind of powerless to go after him on this because the settlement has not been approved by a judge. the problem that he has is that the judge in this case, i think it's over the next month they have to put the stamp of approval on the settlement, suppose a judge says no, this guy is not, you know, contrite enough. we don't believe it. then he's got another problem, where the s.e.c. will have to file charges and have to fight

it out. it's not a theoretical -- listen, i don't know the judge that he had but often, these cases appear before judge rakoff, and he does not approve the settlement. so tesla is down again today about 7% on some of this stuff, on the fact david einhorn, the big investor, is saying he's comparing it to lehman brothers. neil: wow. >> i think this is, you know, on its own, it's bad. listen, this is a stock that the market is transfixed with. neil: yeah. it's a metaphor for a lot of folks. we are awaiting a couple big things on that vote tomorrow and how susan collins might vote. she will indicate that today, 3:00 p.m.

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neil: would it worry you from a political prospect here if all of a sudden, he ends up, your opponent, joe manchin, voting

for the judge, securing his re-election? >> no. first of all, joe manchin is not going to get re-elected. i think one thing people are seeing is that joe manchin is sideline joe. he will stay on the sidelines. the outcome is going to be decided, then he will pile on. neil: kevin cramer, one of the things that's come up is your opponent decided this was the right thing to do even though it's going to political hurt her. we should be clear she was trailing, is trailing in the polls substantially, even without this decision. what do you think motivated her? >> well, i don't know what motivated her. i don't know what's in her head. i do know this, that it's a violation of everything her campaign has been based on. she has tried to make a brand of being the independent from north dakota as opposed to the democrat, the person that reaches across the aisle and votes with president trump when he's right for north dakota. neil: there's no middle ground on this. either you are all good doing the right thing or all evil doing the wrong thing. not surprisingly, republican

candidates who oppose democrats, democratic counterparts trying to make hay out of this vote for supreme court justice. the latest focus seems to be right now on joe manchin, the democrat of west virginia, who might be in the very odd position should susan collins of maine, the republican, be a no and there's no way of knowing. we won't know for another hour or so when she makes her announcement. the pressure would be on him, the vote, the vote that would secure the vice president of the united states playing the role of tie-breaker on this and getting brett kavanaugh to the supreme court. fox business network's connell mcshane has been following all this and has a special coming up next week. he will be in all the crucial midterm states. what we are looking at here, the pressure is really on joe manchin now. >> it is. west virginia is obviously one of those key states. something really interesting is happening right now in tennessee which is one of the states we are visiting next week. it's a really close senate race between congresswoman marsha blackburn and the governor of that state.

he put a statement out this morning saying he would have been a yes on kavanaugh. it was one of those winding statements that you know, i'm not thrilled with it but if i was there, i would vote yes. now, just before i came in here, something crossing one of the wires, a news report coming in that one of the big liberal super pacs that had been supporting him is now either thinking about or is already drawing back on support of him. remember, they are in a neck and neck race in tennessee. you would think the democrats, no matter what his vote is, from a political standpoint would need that seat if they have any hopes of taking back the senate. but given what you said about joe manchin, if it does come down to the last vote and he needs to be the guy to put kavanaugh over the top, or even if it looks like kavanaugh is, because collins votes yes, going to go to the top and manchin is a yes, will he face the same type of political pressure, meaning financial pressure in his race. he has a bigger lead than -- neil: he can afford to say no

even though this is a state donald trump won by a landslide. you don't want to risk, you know -- >> gasparino made a good point earlier. he could switch parties. i guess that's possible. manchin is his own brand. the governor already did that in west virginia. he's his own brand. neil: -- without saying do what you have to do to win. but is it your sense if it came down to that, that, i guess you will follow this in one of the battleground states you go to, this is going to galvanize one or the other parties. i had representatives of both here today, saying it's galvanizing both. >> i'm sure it is but i think it matters most for republicans because the galvanizing of the democrats is coming from state, it seems from the data we have now, the democrats that are fired up are in states where they already were fired up. they already had a lot of enthusiasm on their side and in liberal areas where this

nomination fight is being looked at closely, there may be even a little more energy but it's the republicans who are not so fired up about this president. particularly the never trump crowd or just moderate republicans in general, traditional republicans. neil: they are fired up now. >> they are all together on this. we will go to texas on monday, right? by the time we get there and do the reports, will we have a close race in texas between ted cruz and beto o'rourke? maybe. it's been a fairly close, our fox power rankings coming into today, o'rourke has been giving him a run for lhis money. however, does this change things. will republicans who are reluctant to jump on the cruz band wagon and weren't going to come out and vote for his re-election enthusiastically, are they going to and will he win easily. similar situation in tennessee. that's obviously why -- well, you would think at least if you are thinking politically about this, he would be a theoretical yes on this. he understands the politics of it. neil: heidi heitkamp coming out being a definite no, maybe she

realizes i'm down 10, 11 points in the polls, i have nothing to gain or lose. but she said no. that surprised me. >> i heard karl rove make the argument yesterday as i'm sure other people did that heidi heitkamp might be seeing that that race is not looking so hot and is thinking about a future job in future democratic administration. i don't know if that's cynical or political or whatever you want to call it. we'll see. neil: usually at this point in the show they count down in my ear. rob is counting down in my ear. we got to go. three, two, one. right to break. incredible. here. we perform over 50,000 operations a year in places like this. for the past 15 years, chubb has identified ways that we can strengthen our safety measures. and today, our hospitals have some of the best patient safety records in the country. now, we're constructing new buildings that will define the future of piedmont and chubb is here, insuring our expansion. two million patients a year depend on us.

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neil: with the dow down 237 points a hour away from suzanne collins hey trish. >> hey breaking right now we have a lot going on on capitol hill senators are debating fate of judge kavanaugh as senate votes on confirmation happening in about 27 hours from now. we're going to know the answer. the white house now feeling pretty confident they think they have votes to confirm judge kavanaugh but you know anything can happen and that uncertainty well it is going to hit in the stock market today along with -- like in treasury yields interest rates moving up sinking bean that fed has to tighten some more i am trish regan thank you everyone to the intelligence report. >> all right everyone also breaking today president