starts to come out. selling begets selling. we've seen that all day long. under a little bit of pressure with the ppi came out. we've been off more than 400 dow points. the market is under pressure led by tech names. nothing is safe right now. neil cavuto, all yours. neil: i'm glad lizzie mentioned we are back to where we were in september, important distinction, calm in the middle of the storm. financial variety playing out at corner of wall and broad, what is happening around the florida panhandle and gulf coast. we'll keep you updated. as lizzie pointed out we're returning to levels we had little more than a few weeks ago. it has been wildly disruptive, for example in the technology arena, likes of intel and microsoft down north of 2 1/2%. amazon officially in correction territory. down 2%. netflix down 3 1/2%. facebook, apple, down 1% plus. we're also following on technology side the chip-makers

and china gear producers, everyone from intel to nvidia, applied materials, teradyne, aslm holdings, all down anywhere from three, case of asml, for a while north of 5%. so whether this is overwrought or overdone, cooler heads eventually do prevail here but again the catalyst for all of this, back up in interest rates, not just in the 10-year note which is in and out of seven-year highs, but the two-year note in and out of 10-year highs. in other words we have not seen a yield on the two-year note this high since 2018. if you think about it, that was the year barack obama was elected president. you have to go that far back to see that. that is scrunching the yield curve. when you see developments like that. some people say could that portend recession or at very least a slowdown? they sell first, ask questions later. gerri willis at new york stock exchange. this would not be the first time we've seen that type of reaction

but tell me what is going on down there? >> what is going on down here, the dow is down as you say, 1.39%. this is not 5% or 10%. the selloff is across the board. let me show you the names of dow component leading the way down. nike, microsoft, visa, boeing, caterpillar. this is industrials. this is in technology. this is virtually every sector you can think of that is not doing well right now. i want to show you info tech down, industrials, materials, consumer discretionary. the only s&p 500 sector that was doing well was telecom services. that is simply put verizon. that stock was up. that single stock was up. they're changing the component of those sectors. so lots of selloff here. begin at the beginning. 55 points off at the dow at the very beginning of trading. we've just been sliding ever since and i've been talking to

traders here all day long, many of them telling me they are concerned about inflation. they are concerned about higher interest rates. all that input into stock prices. of course consumers, companies, small businesses, everybody borrows money. higher rates mean doing business is more expensive. i want to tell you something interesting i just heard moments ago from a trader who told me did not want to be long stocks coming into earnings season. and why? we're not going to see impact necessarily of inflation or higher interest rates right away but there might be forward comments, forward-looking comments that might go to those very issues. so concerns about as we get into earnings season with the big banks coming out first that you might see bad news from those banks. another interesting comment i got from traders here, the path of least resistance instead of being higher is now lower. the path of least resistance for stocks lower. as you know we've been talking about how the conversation over

trade, people were buying those stocks anyway even as we talked about trade. not so much today. people are selling off the dow, down 386 points or 1.5%. neil, back to you. neil: in the case of the dow down 2.8% from highs reached a couple weeks ago. we're on that. we're also on some effects of the hurricane besides being a category 4 storm, remember we are in rig alley here, oil rig alley along the gulf coast here and that is exactly where you will find hurricane michael now, a category 4 storm, likely to disrupt a lot of activity to say nothing of endangering human lives in its way. because of that people say this will be depressant, not catalyst for oil prices. i will get into that in a second. one of the reason oil prices are down, we have a lot of locked down locations and that could be a depressant.

that seems counterintuitive. we'll get into that. much more important things for folks along its path, there are millions who are. jeff flock at panama city beach, florida, with the latest. hey, jeff. reporter: many not leaving the path not just me but many people in panama city elected to weather this and i think some of them are having second thoughts as we speak because we are still some hours away from the landfall of this storm. although certainly the outer bands as you can tell are here. if i come back out from behind my perch own palm trees, you get a sense of wind hitting us here. we're not even anywhere near the kinds of conditions that are coming. just so anyone wonders, they say well that guy is crazy, standing out in the rain and wind and flow, most of this wind is coming off the gulf right now. so there is no debris. we're not getting debris right

now. the minute we get a change in the wind direction, which means the storm getting closer, or past us coming back around and getting debris from the shore that is when we get projectiles launched. that is when we get out of the way. so far at this point no catastrophic damage, but as you can tell conditions are deteriorating here. if you watched us earlier today, we are still in a situation now where it is blowing about as hard as it has and as i said this is a storm, not a big storm but that center of circulation, wherever that comes in, if it is here, it is going to be something. there we did see some debris. wherever that center it of circulation does come in, that is where the catastrophic -- will take place. for those of us that love these displays of mother nature this is an extraordinary event

because i have not been in a cat-4 storm, well, since hugo i think. that would be '89. and this one is going to be an extraordinary event if it in fact does not weaken on landfall. we'll be here to watch it, kneel. neil: please, buddy, be safe. my goodness. jeff flock in the middle of all of that. just to give you latest on that storm a category 4 as jeff points out, 3.7 million people are under this hurricane warning. florida isn't the only target. as you heard georgia and the carolinas are also in its path and could likely millions more would lose power and deal with downed trees and probably a lot worse. the evacuation along just florida covers 22 counties. better than 30 are declared by the governor in a state of emergency. help from the federal government via fema relief is directed to the areas and fema director brock long extended to georgia,

it is a wake-up call for a state that seemed to think they're either getting bypassed for all of this or not a big deal for them. apparently the message from those providing the relief is, be careful, be wise, be safe. so we're following that. we're also following the selloff that picked up considerable steam though we are off the worst less here. we have many of the major market averages getting really bludgeoned. it is affecting virtually every sector. banks have been saying for the most part, i stress for the most part, one of the sectors that have done reasonably well in higher interest rates that tend to benefit financial related issues but of course that reversed in the last few minutes. so there is only so much of a good thing they can endure. we'll keep an eye on that. the fallout from all of this as the day ensues. one of those cases where they sell first, ask questions later. not the deirdre, what do you

think of the widespread nature of this? >> yields highest since 2011. neil: that's right. >> yield for two-year higher since 2008. it is showing very quick basis-point move we've seen with both levels of maturity. neil: by the way the two-year is telegraphing what the federal reserve will do much more rate hiking. >> market believes rates go higher more than previously thought. that is putting pressure. we're seeing banks smile a little bit. rising interest rates. bankses make more money for all of us going to looking for loans. you were particularly incensed by this, clear and strong, on the imf forecast, listen, trade worries are actually going to hurt global growth and reducing the outlook. i think that on top of what we're seeing naturally in the

market is giving investors a little pause. neil: italy compounding problems, david, what do you -- >> i actually agree things will bad but because they will be bad over the emerging markets is particularly because the imf advice they're giving. a lot of people in the trump administration, including president trump and larry kudlow don't like the advice imf give these countries. neil: has the imf been right on anything is it. >> wrong so often hard to take them seriously. as far as today's market, what happened, clearly interest rates got to the point where a lot of investors said maybe i lock in the gains i had. i didn't believe all the doomsayers like paul krugman during the election. i think it will be good for the market to have a businessman as president. they bought into the market. maybe they're consolidating their gains right now. interest rates are high enough so they put their money in short-term bond is enough to get

2 1/2%. neil: sure. >> if you put it in for three months, six months, wait until you see what happens after the election. either keep it in short-term bond or you get back into the stock market. but i think less a panic than it is a consolidation going on. neil: it feeds on itself. i particularly noticed the concentration of selling today as it has in the recent days, technology, technology, technology. it is just widened within technology. >> technology, technology, technology. neil: to david's point do you use this as an opportunity, i've had great gains in amazon as many had, it is in correction territory what are you hearing? >> even if in correction territory still up 50% for the year. neil: good point. >> we're near record highs for the dow and nasdaq. keep things in perspective. if you play markets look at volatility, i love looking at vix, spiking highest since june this year and backwardation taking place with the volatility

index, so-called fear gauge. investors are worried about today, tomorrow than they are a few weeks out. what does that say about selling? i think it continues a few more days, if it continue as few more days, we get argument becomes that will feed more selling, right? >> the question is this bearish phase of a bull market or beginning of a bear market? i think it is the former. a lot of people, if we were seeing three or 4%, in contact charles payne in the last segment said, not a single-digit loss that concerns me but if it is quadruple digit loss, then he would be concerned this looks more like a bearish phase. gary kaltbaum, the genius analyst he said, this is market that was really frothy. look at the marijuana stocks for example, trading for, the capital of all these companies was in the billions of dollars when they only make a few million dollars a month.

neil: exception to the general rule it wasn't like it was before 2000 selloff in the nasdaq. we had so few companies generating earnings to justify the stock. i thought that was way overstated. >> but frothiness of this market was gipping to just come up. again we're in hurricane mode. like the froth at the top of the ocean. there is a big ocean underneath it and the ocean underneath is the economic growth we're in the middle of right now which is real. the earnings that companies are making which is real. the jobs that are being created which are real. these are real things that go far beyond speculation that goes on in the market. >> as you made the point that's true, that is different than the dot-com bust, right, where you had a lot of these companies -- neil: you were making money. >> so few even had legitimate kind of customers or headcount when you went back to look at the books. it was really -- they were marketing geniuses. look at amazon, netflix, facebook, apple, whatever, whatever problems you have with

them, maybe the stock is a little bit overpriced all of these are legitimate businesses that have a huge monopoly on whatever area they're in. >> we talked the market down. it was down 400 points. neil: we have that effect. the hurricane came up a number of times, home depot for example, always the case, lowe's, benefit when something likes that come, not so energy prices which you would think get momentary pop. on concern this near term economic depressant. i thought that was a stretch. it is what it is. >> that is a stretch. it is broad selling at this point. i want to point to the best indicator where stocks move, fund flows and passive investing, those rip decks funds by the way for our viewers. neil: right. >> those have not been getting as much money as they used to. that means people are not rotating into stocks and buying as much as they used to, which usually indicates there is more selling with clients. neil: exchange traded fund or

mirror the -- >> vang gadd. so my point is this is long enough cycle, 10 years into the stock rally, the bull mark competent we're in? >> longest ever bull market for stocks. >> nobody wants to be holding the hot potato. people are getting scared when it ends. >> that is a little bit after misnomer because the rally didn't begin in hardcore fashion until the past few years. the first couple of years from that from 2009, march 2009 was the bottom of the market, it took about three years to gain back where we were before the recession began. so the rally really began a few years after that. i think people who were buying into this market were looking beyond the bottom of the market and in terms of where this bull market is. i think it still has legs. again, this is clearly a bearish moment. the question is how long it lasts. neil: a lot of people have said, wait until third quarter earnings come out because they will be off the charts.

i guess expectations for 20%. >> reduced back for technology shares. that's what fund managers are saying this morning. neil: so don't look forward to that? >> you get outsized gains, outsized declines when it comes to earnings season. fund managers, analysts have been ratcheting expectations. neil: you say the third quarter numbers? >> look what happened with facebook disappointing. people are preparing themselves, are numbers as good as they have been and how long can they keep it up? there is some hesitation right now. neil: do you guys have any sense, a lot of guys you talked to, dave on your show, well, you have to reposition your portfolio. you have to curb your big moneymakers or whatever or add to it by buying more conservative invests. is there a rule of thumb on that? >> i don't know if there is a rule of thumb. i think people are nying by the seat of their pants. it is down only 335. we continue to talk up this

market which is a good thing. i think shah ghailani earlier said, what is happening a lot of bond, classic bondholders and bond buyers did go into the stock market. they didn't want to be left behind by holding bonds when stock market went up ad infit night tum. those are first people to get back into bonds when interest rates are up. i got what i could out of stocks. i will get back into short term 2 1/2% bond for three months, see what happens. there is a lot of money being moved around right now. i don't think it is being cashed out though entirely. i think it is moved to a different location. neil: a lot of people say the quickest descent going from a correction to an outright bear market. going down from 10% of our highs to 20% or more. that cycle is very fast. we're a long way from that we should stress. in the case of nasdaq, numbers you have to catch them by the

second. 2.8% from the dow highs. we're a long way from that. normally when you get down 10% that feeds sort of a panic that gets you down even further. >> it is psyche. psyche impact markets and selling more than actual economics, yeah, when the fed is indicating as you just said we might be even raising them stronger, faster than we expected, that does have reaction. >> by the way the president spoke so directly, much more directly than a president usually does about what the fed should or shouldn't do. he said don't, i would prefer if the fed didn't do it. i'm not giving them advice. kind of like the godfather. neil: he will get just the opposite. >> market mechanics, we talk about sentiment but all these program trading they have been written in, people decided many cases i will sell at this. maybe many people come to the same conclusion around the same time and program trades kick in. we're in a more volatile situation in general as more technology has been added to

trading systems than even 10 years ago. >> yeah but i have to say the market moves also kind of electrify me in some ways. when you see the first two session this is week, on monday we were down almost 300 points for the dow. we came back to narrow losses. >> closing in the green, i remember that. >> 234 points. we came back as well on tuesday. so what does that say when markets depress and people rush in to buy on the dips? >> everything happens faster. >> cash going in. people are still bullish on at least some sectors of the market. >> it is jumpiness and the cause is interest rates. people think they have safe money in a place with high interest rates, getting the gain that you would get, even though the market has room to go to the upside people thought it was high enough now i could probably get more gains over the short period in bond rather than in stocks. i think it's that simple. neil: you always read tea leaves after the fact, but indulge me here there were anecdotal reports in manhattan area

multimillion-dollar condos you're in the market for were not selling, they're cutting their price and the real estate market in new york was not quite what it was, and then you get reports luxury retailers tiffany, estee lauder 10 10% each today but they had been selling off and that might have been a precursor wider worries? >> about the consumer you mean? neil: yeah. >> what i noticed monday on visa. i was looking at stock market down at worst level, a lot of tech plus visa. that is more or less a bet on the u.s. consumer, real estate in the high, high-end, a lot of of people who say a lot of big money left from other countries quite frankly looking for tax evasion. this is attractive form of one unit of currency is a manhattan apartment at one level. a lot of that money already shifted. like what is colling here to the city has already come. >> one thing that president trump does know more about even

his critics would agree than anybody else is real estate. that is one thing that makes him particularly sensitive to interest rates. one of the reasons we spoke about it yesterday. neil: battles back and forth with china, put a child on chinese buyers for skyscrapers you were looking at. >> no question. that gets to larger point how much what is going on is concern about trade. there is a lot of concern about trade and frankly there is a lot of concern what is happening globally. overseas things are not looking so well. in china things are terrible partly because of what we're doing or maybe the majority of that is what we're doing. >> where else do you go? >> that is the the bottom line. that is why frankly so much money stays here and why the dollar stays so strong. neil: i'm not putting stakes in the market at all is there danger creating a cockiness this is only game in town, this is where you want to be -- >> not as long as we're growing and companies are making money. neil: i agree with the notion.

between christine lagarde of imf constantly bemoaning trade war, what ails europe ails the world and developing market which i think is a bit rich, having said all that italy is in a world of hurt, can't get their budget together, pains me for my people, i wonder whether that noise typically greeted as noise takes on added sense of urgency? >> my favorite term is u.s. exceptionalism, exceptionalism coined by morgan stanley this week because there is no other place to park your money. >> cleanest dirty shirt in the closet, right? >> that is where you get returns. bank of america survey for first time in five years they caught up, u.s. is most favored place to invest. >> it is not a dirty shirt, not the best dirty shirt. it is a pretty clean shirt right now. the one exception to that and a lot of people point this out including elizabeth macdonald earlier is the debt load of a lot of these companies. there is a problem --

>> especially rates going higher. >> exactly, the cash flow doesn't always equal the amount of money they are getting themselves into in terms of debt. when they see a growing economy they think it is worthwhile to borrow money and grow further because eventually it will pay off. that is true if the economy continues to grow. if there is a pull back and interest rates go high enough to curb economic growth -- >> it is an arbitrage. >> you would have been buzzed on "varney" saying arbitrage by the way. >> a great word. neil: stay where you are. much is made too of the markets getting very close to going below what they call a 50 day moving average or 100 day moving average, 200-day moving averages, frankly chicken entrails and tea leaves to moi, but having said that in case of s&p 500 and nasdaq they're very close to those levels. in fact for a while in case of s&p 500 we were already there at

50-day moving average, what counts where you are at the end of the trading day. the thinking goes once you get below that you have only further to go down. it doesn't always pan out that way, i must stress, but that is among technical factors the market is following. we're not remiss, we'll not lose sight what is happening in the panhandle. i expect folks in that area are much more concerned with their well being, their homes, livelihoods, than what is haing at the corner of broad. hurricane michael is about to make landfall as category 4 storm. nubbing up on everybody. on the phone is gubernatorial candidate ron desantis. we called his opponent andrew gillum who was unavailable. we put calls to governor rick scott as well. congressman, your thoughts on this, and surprising number of floridians in that region who have not evacuated and no intention to? >> i'll tell you, neil, kind of

the opposite of irma. if you remember last year, irma was menacing for a week 1/2. we didn't know where it was going to go or whether it would be a big storm. fortunately when it got closer it petered out a little bit. it was still serious but it slowed down. this is the opposite, it snuck up on people. a week ago nobody was talking about this. all of sudden we saw it. it has gotten more intense so this will be a very serious storm. people were advised to evacuate. those coastal areas. most did but some did not and at this point the governor is telling people that you're not folk to be able to get out safely so you just have to hunker down and hope for the best but it is going to be real significant storm surge and then obviously category 4 wind hitting the close there in northwest florida. neil: i'm curious, congressman, with this nine to 14 feet of flooding they expect, all of this is pre-high tide which comes later tonight that could

be a double-whammy? >> without question, you look where the storm surge will be, it will not get that high throughout the entire big bend area but looking storm surge right north of the tampa bay area, pasco county up that coast all the way through the big bend, all the way over into pensacola and alabama. that is a huge stretch that will experience significant storm surge. of course the apalachicola area, they could get 10 to 12 feet which is, clearly life-threatening storm surge at that level. neil: why do you suspect so many didn't evacuate? did they just sort minimize this? maybe they remember florence and early reports of imminent threats to the gulf region or didn't happen or a lot of storms in the past supposed to hit them didn't? their memories are short, don't recall irma, don't recall some of these others? what happened? >> i think this snuck up on some people. neil: yeah. >> even when we knew there was a

storm brewing, two days ago i don't think it reached category 1 status. all of sudden we wake up, category 1, three, then today it's a four. i think some people maybe didn't think it would get this significant because look, if you're on one of those barrier islands the storm surge obviously is the real thing that threatens you, wind at category 1, most of those structures probably could with stand it. when you get to category 4, storm surge will threaten life and you have the wind and rain and accumulation. this is a mammoth of a storm. neil: congressman as we have you here, apparently a lot of the key people who are looking at this from fema's point of view met with the president today, went over how bad this is or could get. that the entire area itself that is affected is actually bigger than the gulf itself which

surprised me and they're preparing for a worst-case scenario here. this is a fast-moving storm. when they say a worst-case scenario, what are they talking about? >> i think they're talking about a very, very ferocious storm that has a direct hit in an area that can produce a lot of devastation and then a wide-ranging storm surge really, i mean, if you calculated from say pasco county all the way over into alabama, i mean that is hundreds and hundreds of miles of coastline there that can be affected. so it is going to be, it is going to have a lot of damage. again this is something that the people got out did the right thing. if they didn't they will hunker down now. this will be stronger than anyone would have anticipated just 48 hours ago. neil: congressman, this is probably a small worry in the scheme of things, i don't even know if florida has deadline today for voter registration for the upcoming midterms but would any of that have been affected by this or pushed back because

of this? >> so yesterday was the deadline. i think that at least some areas extended it for another 24 hours online. we'll just have to see how that goes but at the end of the day i think that most folks will be focusing on if you're in that area, obviously safety. what i've been doing, we're not really campaigning in light of this, we're doing a number of veterans events we're doing supply drives. so we're having our veteran community bring stuff. we're loading up a big u-haul. once the storm passes people get a sense what is needed we'll drive in the u-haul and distribute supplies, water, food, the baby supplies, to folks wherever needed in northwest florida. neil: thank you very much for taking the time. you are slightly busy. that is an understatement. ron desantis. thank you. >> thank thank you. neil: by the way the president says he will visit the storm zone sunday or monday after

hurricane michael has long passed. he has a busy campaign schedule. as some of you might be aware he will be in erie, pennsylvania later on today. is it tonight? >> yeah. neil: richmond, ohio, he wants to take time to visit region presumably on sunday or monday. we'll keep you posted. all presidents regardless of their party try to arrive so they're not too disruptive. sometimes the president travels he brings with him a few folks. they don't want to get in the way of those directly affect by the storm. the president makes it clear he wants to get down as soon as he possibly can. maybe sunday or monday. meanwhile what is happening on corner of wall and broad, a selloff ensuing, 366 points. as bad as this looks, people step back, my gosh, we're down 1 1/3%, elizabeth macdonald put it best we're essentially back to where we were last month, not last year, last month. that is a little more than

2 1/2, three weeks ago from the highs. having said that, from the highs the nasdaq is down in excess of 3% from those highs. we have the dow down 3% from its highs. s&p 500, down close to 3% from the highs. i mention those percentages, 10% is a correction from those highs. 20% a bear market. many point out to me, emailing, texting me, i sort of leave out the nasty ones, the ones very well-thought out telling me one out of five of s&p 500 stocks are already in bear market territory. about two out of five in correction territory. perspective on that. that was going into today. charlie gasparino is joining us. again rejoined by susan li and david asman, deirdre bolton. what do you think of the selloff? >> everybody knew it would be violent when they unwind the

balance sheet, jamie dimon, go down the line. there would be a correction. neil: balance sheet. >> some of it is. higher interest rates. if you look at the dow and s&p longer term, not just since it reached its high, look at it from the beginning of the year, look at it from the time trump passed the tax cuts, it was right, or congress passed the trump tax cuts, at that time he started talking up trade war, the dow basically, not completely, basically flat-lined. some of what is going on here is a worry about trade and tariffs. if you look at gm, i don't cover gm that much, i have been lately because i have been covering a lot of tesla, gm, ford, automakers have not had a calm gait quarters because of tariffs. neil: higher rates. >> higher rates to finance vehicles. again, i will say it again, there is potential if these tax cuts do not work according to

plan to get even higher interest rates because the deficit blows out. that is a big if. neil: this is my opinion, but pretty clear tax cuts are working. >> i think so. larry kudlow said you have beautiful effects. >> larry kudlow works for the president of course. >> look at corporate profits. >> so far they have but you have to have it long term and corporations, let as be real clear, are they hiring more or -- >> of course they're hiring more? >> have they done more buybacks? >> absolutely. they have done both. but fact is they're investing tons of money -- >> how much? how much? >> one reason you have jobs. depends which company, charlie. why are there more jobs in this country than people looking for jobs. >> david, with all due respect? >> answer that question. why are there more jobs in this country than people -- >> excuse me, don't answer a question with question. >> why do we have 1.8% wage

growth. >> the point, charlie, companies are not only expanding, they are hiring. that is why we have, can i answer your question? >> you asked me. >> they are hiring people because they are expanding. >> why aren't they giving them more wages? >> cost money, let me finish, cost money to train people. costs money to -- >> right. >> most important ways you can spend money by hiring people. that is one of the biggest -- neil: you're arguing eloquently, deirdre, susan, if you just pipe down here. i do want to get into some of the political ramifications of all of this, who might have caused what. susan, first to you what ceos say. what you go to the stock exchange and go to the corporate events, deirdre, you've done the same, a lot talk about the economy being the wind at their back, whatever the source of that. this is what will embolden their behavior and their spending -- >> thanks to the tax cuts, by the way. neil: already you were saying that third quarter earnings

might be impacted by some of the recent developments we've seen. explain. >> i think expectations have been winding back especially technology sector given what happened in the second quarter. big disappointments there, facebook is one of them. neil: a technology name or two could surprise? >> could surprise on the downside. they have run up so much, the bar is so high at this point after the first two quarters of this year people are thinking at some point the law of large numbers quick in. neil: charlie -- >> they're still hiring, thanks to tax cuts, charlie. >> would you stop interrupting you while she is interrupting you? neil: i am the one that interrupts around here. if she is right on technology thing and surprises here that could -- technology names, apples, amazons, facebooks, microsofts, they have been leading the parade here and if you were lucky enough to have them as invests they outshown all others. you were looking like warren

buffett. now if they're going to fall on hard times all of a sudden you're not feeling like warren buffett. people when they see that tend to sell. >> we have to define what hard times are. they may miss the really high bars they have been hitting as far as profit growth and revenue growth, they're still all growing revenue, the ones we're talking about netflix, apple, facebook. they're still growing, they might be growing less. neil: even coming down-to-earth would be a jolt for them, wouldn't it? >> yeah. what is interesting about interest rates, talk to average person, put your money in treasury bond or five-year or 10-year get like 3 1/2%. >> or six-month get more than 2 1/2% right now. >> showing your age there because -- >> i like shorter term. >> saying there is sort of a tradeoff here where -- that is how markets work. neil: but it is funny, right, to see full-page ads touting 2% on your money.

>> i remember when they were 13%, for god's sake. >> you talked about trump attacking fed or saying they shouldn't raise rates. last president that supported fed raising rates was reagan back in the day. he supported, right behind paul volcker. back then what did you get on cd, 18%. >> inflation was about that. neil: briefly got over 21%. >> it was amazing time back then. >> one of the emails, i'm getting emails from folks like david stockman, for example, people say, see i told you. there were a lot of i told you sos. great them with a grain of salt. >> what did he tell you about? >> david stockman, all these people who are saying that essentially this is, this is what he has been forecasting for years, finally happened, i think you got to sit back for a second, wait a minute, is a one and a third drop in the dow the end of the world? neil: you know what happens, maybe the 2008 experience, guys, please correct me if you

disagree, remember, you covered this, wrote books about it, remember that the selloff compounded the selloff. capital industry used beginning with the banking industry was evaporating before their eyes. selloffs make their -- >> something truly rotten -- neil: absolutely. what i wonder is this selloff, feeds on itself going to feed on the fears of -- >> depends on -- neil: i don't know what the trade is. >> that was sort of a unique situation where the banks balance sheets, you need banks healthy to control money supply, balance sheets worry, they were insolvent based on what they were holding on balance sheets. neil: based on stocks before. >>s that with a slow burn. the dow hit a high in december 2007 right as chuck prince resigned at citigroup, stan o'neal out of citigroup, people thought fed would inplate their way out but you really

couldn't. >> how did you declare bankruptcy? it was slowly then suddenly. neil: save the arguments for a nation that wants to hear them. meantime i want to go back to jeff flock in panama city beach, florida, people focusing on hurricane four storm michael. barreling right on jeff. jeff? reporter: neil, i don't know if i heard you very well there but perhaps as you can tell, since we last talked. we think this is intense syification, the storm will go east of us, which is probably the best possible scenario, given how close the storm is. looking at eyewall. looking at radar, eyewall is pretty intense. this yearly is the most intense

that we have seen thus far. again though, because of direction of this wind, we are still getting wind off the water. which means we are not getting pieces of buildings or other pieces of debris. the only building that you can see, because we got our camera back behind a pillar, the building that is right in front of me here is fairly, solidly constructed itself. it is not coming apart. but i'll tell you, we're reaching a point here now where, we probably don't want to take a whole lot more chances. this is extraordinary experience. that is one of the reasons we do this, it is extraordinary. having said that, i think we may just want to, well, i have to stay here, whether you're on tv with me or not, because really

not a good idea to try to cross the street right now. we will, i suspect, get a bit of a lull in a moment, because we'll be able to get back, be able to get back across the street. right now, i'm going to have to stay a bit on my knees here and hope this damn sign holds on because we are, well we're in a position where we don't want to get up. hang on, maybe a little bit of a lull. a little bit of a lull. i will get back behind, got another post over here. okay. we're good. we're good. i don't know. you still with me, neil. neil: yeah. jeff, you got to get inside. i want you safe and your crew. take care of yourself. reporter: i know. we're good. as you know, i've been through a lot of these.

that was a good situation right there. but i get your point. we can get behind a wall and you're safe. i walked out there for a bit. we got some intensity. i think we're okay right now. neil: we have green screens you know. i raise that with you. jeff, really, you're the best. we love you, please, please, you and your wonderful crew be safe. jeff in the middle of that, just to put this in perspective for the panhandle, they have not seen anything like this. this surprises me being in the florida area in better part of a century. so, for a lot of these folks, they greeted this ho-hum expectation wasn't going to materialize. i'm told in the last four hurricanes, three were duds for them. they were expected to pass over them directly. wouldn't, memories are long for irma, which did pass over them, didn't do much damage. because of that experience,

people get sanguine, people ride it out, explains very, very few who decided to ahead the orders to evacuate. many opted. they said it was not to worry. we'll have more after this. a good place to start is with an independent registered investment advisor. as fiduciaries, they live by a simple rule: always act in the best interests of their clients. that's why charles schwab is proud to support more independent financial advisors and their clients than anyone else. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com metastatic breast cancer is relentless, but i'm relentless too. mbc doesn't take a day off, and neither will i. and i treat my mbc with new everyday verzenio- the only one of its kind that can be taken every day.

in fact, verzenio is a cdk4 & 6 inhibitor for postmenopausal women with hr+, her2- metastatic breast cancer, approved, with hormonal therapy, as an everyday treatment for a relentless disease. verzenio + an ai is proven to help women have significantly more time without disease progression, and more than half of women saw their tumors shrink vs an ai. diarrhea is common, may be severe, and may cause dehydration or infection. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor if you have fever, chills, or other signs of infection. verzenio may cause low white blood cell counts, which may cause serious infection that can lead to death. serious liver problems can occur. symptoms may include tiredness, loss of appetite, stomach pain, and bleeding or bruising more easily than normal. blood clots that can lead to death have also occurred. talk to your doctor right away if you notice pain or swelling in your arms or legs, shortness of breath, chest pain or rapid breathing or heart rate. tell your doctor if you are pregnant, breastfeeding, or plan to become pregnant. common side effects include nausea, infections, low red and white blood cells and platelets,

decreased appetite, headache, abdominal pain, tiredness, vomiting, and hair thinning or loss. i'm relentless. and my doctor and i choose to treat my metastatic breast cancer with verzenio. be relentless. ask your doctor about everyday verzenio.

experience a blend of refined ...and raw power. engineered to take the crown. the lexus ls 500 and ls 500h. experience amazing at your lexus dealer.

neil: all right. we are monitoring this tape play back coming from the oval office, the president meeting with his fema director. also homeland security secretary nielsen, how they're coordinating relief efforts in the wake of the storm. we'll be eyeing that. anything of immediate value to you we will certainly pass along. the president makes it very clear, any and all help the region needs, the region will get. florida already declared a state of emergency and was granted by the president to prepare for this, 30 some odd counties declared in the state of emergency. very rare that happens. but that emergency and help comes with it, immediately granted. the president saying any and all

will be helped along the path of the coverage, not only florida panhandle and points north but georgia and carolinas, nine rivers already flooded with florence, remember that, are flooding all over again or stand to flood all over again. something adam klotz with us, barely 24 hours ago predicted could be a problem. adam, to your point it's a problem. what is the latest? >> this is becoming a bigger and bigger storm, neil. when this gets close to the storm it weakens and shakes up a little bit. this is the eyewall beginning to run onshore. just as critical clear it has been in the entire time. the storm is staying strong even as it approaches land, beginning to run towards land. the winds are strongest on eastern side of this, these are wind gusts, looking at apalachicola getting up to 90 miles-an-hour. that will strongly climb. the strongest winds are not

there, getting wind up to 90 miles an hour. those will do damage. these are current radars on the ground can bring you in. each one of these bands, packing wind gusts, even outside of the center of this system, but you get into some of these bands of rain, you're still talking about gusts of wind getting up to 75 to 85 miles an hour. very strong winds, extending from the eyewall. here is your eyewall. not yet actually onshore but the worst weather from it is beginning to run onshore. that is panama city, just up to the north and off a little bit towards your west, which means this is coming in just east of panama city. i show you that here with our track. it was making direction to the north. if i take you in, we're seeing a little bit of a shift. when it eventually works its way onshore where do we talk about, perhaps mexico beach will be where it makes landfall. we talk about landfall, you wonder when exactly is landfall. that is not until the center of the core of the storm, runs over

land. obviously you will have the initial eyewall heading before that. we're getting to the point where the worst weather running on the shore, next little bit or hour until we get the eyewall center on. but the worst weather already has begun, neil. it is going to persist. the other big story besides wind we're seeing, water levels continue to rise. this is florida big bend where you're getting spots up to 10 to 12 feet of storm surge. but throughout the apalachicola area, spots are showing you 90 mile-an-hour wind. there will be storm surge there also. getting into spots again 10 to 12 feet into some of these bays. no surprise there. with all of this water, with all of this wind, eventually the thing we'll be talking about is power outages. that is not something limited to just these initial areas which obviously will get it very bad but this storm is going to stay a hurricane, likely as it runs into portions of south georgia.

the winds will be strong. i think power outage index will be wide. we're talking about a huge portion of the southeast without power by later today, early tomorrow, neil. neil: i heard figures 12 million could lose power in the region. adam, thank you very, very much. adam klotz. another storm developing. it has been developing all week, if you think about it, accelerating today, corner of wall and broad, a big selloff going on here. a lot based on higher interest rates with thedown draft we're looking at 340 points. technology taking it on the chin probably more than any other sector. we should point out likes of microsoft down about 1 1/2. cumulative losses for nasdaq this month, on track for being the worst month for the nasdaq since january 2016. again these are moving targets. as all of my guests told me can change mightily.

i want to bring in market watcher alan knuckman with the panel. that include my friend and colleague susan li, david asman, deirdre bolton and charlie gasparino. what do you see from your end, technical levels for things we should be looking at? >> that is important factor right now the technicals. this is a forced flush out. we're seeing profit-taking put on people here. the gains that were locked in, people moved their stop losses up to protect the gains. now they're knocking down the stops, hitting more sells, snowball going down hill. i like the way the market based on monday, made new lows since september, unchanged close. we took out the lows one more time. talk about what is not happening. dollar index is more than 150 points from the august highs. you're seeing interest rates stall at these levels. still a bit higher obviously than we were in january and february. we were very concerned about the 3%. but not significantly.

i think this is profit-taking pullback before we have earnings season that really kicks off on friday. neil: many of us focused on interest rates as our deirdre bolton was pointing out, alan. paying disproportionate attention to the 10-year, so many rates attached to that, two year better than 10-year highs, is that a concern to you? >> we came from very, have he low levels. i'm standing in the euro-dollar futures pits. above my head is a screen you guys can't see but shows euro dollars out for next five years. we'll raise rates in december. we'll raise them in march, raise them in june. there is a 50/50 chance to raise them in september. all the way out to 2024 we're not raising rates. market tells us things will remain flat. the concern overshot reality how fast we'll raise rates. let's remember, the dow was 1000 points higher, made an all time forever high this time exactly last week. neil: that is true, but tell

that to the european markets. tell that to the asian markets. tell that to virtually every major western european capital seen averages drop from one to 3% on concerns things are accelerating to the bad side. there the argument has always been, i raise with the panel, we can be the world's leader, all the cash flocks to us but can we go alone all the time? >> break between us and world markets right now. that should snap back eventually. that means opportunity with some foreign stocks. let's make note here, the s&p has not had a 1% plus or minus end of day move in more than a quarter. it has been a long time since we've seen volatility, at 18. we were at 15 yesterday. we would have be happy with that with february or march. half of what we were at the levels. i don't think there is major cause for concern just now.

it's a technical pullback. it is still very strong market. earnings growth will be 20% for the third quarter in a row. so i think things still remain positive. neil: alan, thank you, very, very much. david asman, i want to go to you you keep a lot of historical figures, depend on the time period, 87 was the case, financials accelerated to charlie's point in other areas, do you see something happen -- >> '87 corrected itself in couple months too. '87 is not a bad analogy, that was serious downdraft, 15, 20% down draft in the midst of the reagan expansion period. that was remember, after '86 was the second phase of his tax cut program. neil: we were falling into that summer. we fell on the 19th, dow lost a quarter of the value in one day.

>> dan shaffer was harking back, looking at charts, if you just look at charts, bringing up 1929, 1937, we had very different economic policy back in the '30s. if you look at chart absent the policy issues that matter to an economy, you're in trouble. what was important what happened in eight at this self, a big -- '87, a big drop, in the midst of good economic policies. charlie, the rate was 28% after the '86 -- neil: was that a rich market at time? >> you remember, '87 happened. market bounced back. i was a lot younger than you. >> elementary school. >> bounces back, but remember we went into recession, not a deep recession but fairly significant recession. had a housing crisis, s&l crisis --

>> hold on a second, recession started at the end of the '80s. >> i remember that that was for telling. >> i do remember that, charlie. >> there was foreshadowing of that. there was structural problem with the economy. s&ls, 2018, same thing, structural problem with the economy meaning banks. we don't have that now. unless there is something we don't know. so you know, it is always something you don't know. >> s&p you have stocks and bonds. you don't sell both. happened three types in past 20 years. stock market does go into correction. whatever the reasons are, whatever the mechanics are, that is the pattern the past 20 years. >> there is research by sun trust advisors, they looked at rising rate environment took place 15 times since 1950. 12 out of those 15 times the year after you had outsized gains of 12% on average.

neil: backing up what you're saying, don't necessarily act as precursor to panic? >> not necessarily according to suntrust of historical trend. >> particularly the trader was just telling you. the fact there are some rate increases coming online in the next few months. that is what the market is reacting to. but the suggestion we may to through a paws like what susan talking about, in which case the >> the one thing i think, i don't want to be a total worrywart but if you think of structural issues with the economy, what is the one structural thing we have now? a bloated fed balance sheet. if you have to really unwind that balance sheet to the way if there was a problem with our currency, then all bets are off. that's some of the stuff that's lurking out there. >> it's not just us, it's the world. the world has a bloated balance sheet. >> that's why there could be a problem here. that is the one thing i think

that structurally, different about this market. >> stanley druckenmiller says -- neil: i don't want to interrupt you. can i keep all of these folks? i would like to keep them all. normally we do this -- go ahead. they're so good with the exception of gasparino. i want to keep them going on. >> you just came back from the dead. >> wage rates are the same as under obama. neil: i do want to go back. we're not forgetting what's going on with the hurricane. there was a millenial survey, you guys see this, that showed, you saw this rgs rig, right, mi are very, very concerned about another financial crisis. hence their reticence. >> look where they have come from. in some ways in the last ten years, when you actually enter the work force, you didn't know -- >> look what they don't know.

>> it was hard to find a high-paying salary. neil: yes. >> why would we trust anything a millenial says about history? neil: here it is. i got it. [ speaking simultaneously ] neil: millenials with money, a survey, they are worried about another global financial collapse and want to keep their powder dry. >> i think back to the days, i think i can remember the days when i was a millenial, the days when in fact -- neil: what age does that cover? >> i think the 20s. early 20s. my daughter's a millenial. she's 26. i'm close to a millenial. my daughter is 26 years old. to susan's point, i entered the job market at a time when we had unemployment rate of double digits. it was tough. it did sort of gird me for my future in a way i will never

forget. wonder whether somebody coming into the job market for the first time with record low unemployment, with as i said before, more jobs than job applicants, it kind of makes them a little more sensitive to these things. >> after mortgage debt, credit card debt, that's our next biggest chunk of debt. for the millenials, that really is -- >> their wage rates are not going up. i'm telling you. if there's one structural problem with the trump economic -- neil: what are you trying to say? >> millenials complain about this all the time. >> why don't you make less so we can make more? that makes us charitable. neil: look at that. all right. >> just saying. fair wage. neil: all right. guys, i do want to hit you on this hurricane, it's a category 4 storm.

what's interesting, to sort of segue on the financials, it is not having the effect you would think, considering this is oil rig alley along the gulf, and virtually all of them, i believe there was a count of 82 of them along this region that had been shut down. oil prices are still headed lower. energy related stocks heading lower. you could argue there are a lot of other factors there. one might be the precipitant abroad. this imf report envisioning a global slowdown, it's already happening in asia and in europe and maybe that's weighing on this. i don't know. but that's an interesting development, especially in the face of the hurricane. the ones that affect the gulf generally get noticed in the energy markets because as our smart guys remind me, that is where you can bet on a momentary spike in oil and gas and futures and that sort of thing and you're not seeing it. this depressant effect and the fact the storm itself could be an economic depressant. you know the old saw that afterwards it leads to

rebuilding which makes up for the activity that is compromised in the beginning. it's anyone's guess. no way of knowing. i'm sure for people in its direct path, those are more academic issues having nothing to do with the real life and death issues they're dealing with. jeff flock in the middle of all of it in panama city, florida. jeff? reporter: yeah. remarkably, you talk about the oil situation. remarkably little damage so far here, and oil rigs are built pretty powerfully. we, by the way, decided to come in from the storm to some degree. even the police are turning around here, as you see right now. you don't want to stand right out in the middle of it there but we are in little bit more of a protected area. just saw a dumpster, can you see that, that dumpster just rolled across the street out here. to me, with this kind of intensity there's remarkably little damage. even beyond our camera's view, neil, where the houses are, where you think there would be more likely to be damage, with

this kind of intensity of wind we have not seen it yet. it's blowing hard, but we have not got the eyewall yet. we have not got the worst of it yet. so there you go. even the police, if you are able to see it up this way, i don't know if you are, the police patrol, again, they have been pretty good about kind of keeping an eye on things throughout this town. there's another one this way. so you know, it looks bad but maybe not as bad as it looks. what can i tell you? we're still here. neil: be safe. as you might have suspected, that eyewall is hitting the panhandle area. we don't know exactly where, but we are told right now that in fact, the eye's there. of course, that can deceive a number of people, too, because when they see that, sometimes it

can be quite clear in the middle, people get a little cocky, think the worst is over. i doubt people in this neck of the woods treat it so cavalierly although a good many have, as far as not getting out of town. we will keep you up to date on that. also keeping you up to date on the president's briefing with the fema director, his homeland security director, other local officials apprising him on the phone of what they are doing. says whatever florida and the region needs, it will get. emergency relief is already forthcoming, had come before this thing got anywhere near the coast. the president indicating he wants to visit the area probably sunday, could be monday, but in keeping with what presidents do. they like to arrive there, they don't like to disrupt anything, but the more likely time to come would be sunday or monday. the president's got a busy travel schedule, of course, on campaign stops beginning with a stop in erie, pennsylvania later tonight. tomorrow in lebanon, ohio or friday, i should say, lebanon,

ohio and finally in richland, kentucky on saturday. back to the storm at the corner of wall and broad. it's been severe going into today, a lot of it born of higher interest rates and concern now they are beginning to register. these are session lows for the dow, down about 426 points. i did have a chart of the dow 30 if i can get that again, guys. 27 of the 30 stocks were down before. mcdonald's of course got an upgrade today and verizon and walgreens, home depot of course benefiting from the hurricane. proctor & gamble, johnson & johnson, coca-cola, all others are down. it looks like two, three percentage point hits. again, this hit on the dow is bringing it back to levels that seem severe, where we were about a month ago. but again, the dow is in and out of these 50-day moving averages a lot of people pay close attention to. that is the same with the s&p 500, including this next guy, gary b. smith, who joins the

panel to discuss what's going on. on that moving average thing, lot of smart guys like yourself read a lot into that. there are 50-day averages, 100 day moving averages, what do they mean? why do you watch them? >> well, basically the 50-day average as you well know is just a trend, a longer term trend. the next stop i guess would be the 200 day moving average that technicians use. in this case, though, i don't think it has much relevance, to be honest with you. i'm looking more at the percentage pullback that we have had from the recent highs. i'm even looking back just at january of this year, we pulled back 10%. the s&p did, from its highs, until we started that great uptrend into the last week or so, now we are down only 3% or so. granted, some of the nasdaq stocks have taken a bigger hit but just in summary, i would say we are getting closer to a buying opportunity than more selling.

neil: all right. by the way, just -- all of these guys are going to be participating in this conversation, gary, david, deirdre, susan li and charlie gasparino. before i get to david, is it your sense that in the past when you followed sell-offs that individuals respond late? in other words, they start realizing the gravity of something and they panic, or is it just the opposite? what do you see? >> no. i think you are definitely right, there are always the last to climb in as the market's going up, afraid of missing the move. everyone else is making money, i need to get in. normally the last to get out, everyone says at the beginning oh, i'm buying hold, i'm going to be warren buffett and they say my kid's college is melting away and start to panic. that's when you see the spikes down, 600, i guess now 1,000 point day would be in relative

terms and everyone is out and the institutions come in and say all right, we actually can stick in longer. we have more staying power, we have more resources and that's where you start to see the bottom. >> that's so true. there is also the computer trades. a lot of those kick in as well but it is the retail investor, the folks like us that make terrible mistakes at times like these. you don't want to make those mistakes. timing and buying individual stocks as opposed to a wide swath of stocks is usually the biggest mistakes the retail traders make. they get caught up in, we were talking about the psychology of the market. they get caught up in the psychology of the market that either good computer trades or the experts that have been around for 50 years don't get caught up in because they have been through it so many times. >> day to day moves, as warren buffett says, he doesn't time the market or look at day to day. you have to look out further. neil: i think he lies about that. you know what i mean? >> have you told him that? neil: he's brilliant, don't get

me wrong, but i don't think he ignores developments like this. >> he doesn't. definitely not. i have been following him for years. the other thing is, the difference with this market is that they are buying baskets of stock, just so you know. this is less a market driven like you had in 2000 when the nasdaq bubble blew up and people were buying individual dot-coms. neil: do we have a bubble to blow up? >> it depends. this has not been a stock picker's market. that's why hedge funds are going out of business. people plowing money into s&p 500 funds and big indexes, buying baskets of stock. if you unwind those baskets en masse -- neil: i understand that. if you think about it, you can even argue with the huge technology run that it is not obscenely rich, right? even in the case of amazon, you could make a case that it's not nutty. >> exactly. look, i think i always go back to, you know, at the end of the day, let's just say wildly we are down 1,000 points today. i

don't think we will be but let's say we are. i look at my own portfolio and say well -- neil: by the way, it would be not even 3%. go ahead. >> yeah. exactly. i'm still going to be -- i'm still going to be using netflix, i'm still going to be going to the safeway. we have the fundamentals, you know, wages, unemployment, housing prices are all pretty solid right now. is the economy in bad shape? i would say it's in good shape. >> forgive me, there's another gary who talks about the unevenness of the rise of this market. there have been certain stocks that have benefited much more heavily than other stocks. you could see that in the breakaway between the s&p and the dow. the s&p which represents about 500 stocks as opposed to the dow which represents 30. the s&p hasn't done as well as the dow has. there are certain -- there's a certain unevenness to this market that concerns a lot of traders that are smarter than me. >> nobody talks about the deficit that much anymore. notice that?

again, the deficit represents higher interest rates. if it grows much more. >> we talk about deficit all the time. >> really? neil: we are about the only ones who are. i'm telling you, that is the ticking time bomb. you are right about that. >> nobody talks about the deficit or rarely. you do, but -- neil: you're right about that. that is the ticking time bomb. >> it's a marginal part of financial reporting right now. that's a problem for us journalists because we are just not telling people that this thing is growing dramatically and if you don't -- talk to mulvaney. you don't keep getting good economic growth -- >> the other part of it is interest rates. we worry about interest rates. my point is the higher interest rates go, the more money it costs to service our debt. the more the debt grows -- neil: isn't this the year we spend more on the debt than on defense? >> not quite. that was thrown out, it's not

quite true. we spend $780 billion on defense and it's nowhere near the amount of money -- neil: i think you're lying. >> want to do the math on that? >> interesting thing about that. >> the deficit is going to be a trillion. neil: you sound like you're not even worried about your future grandkids. >> i'm worried because it's spending. i'm not worried because -- a lot of the problem with the target about the deficit, the reason some people are hesitant to do so, the mainstream media is so quick to say oh, it's the tax cuts, the tax cuts. no, it's spending. trump has a lot of other republican -- >> they spend a lot of money. revenue is increasing. >> of course it is but does it increase enough for -- talk to any supply sider. they will tell you there is always a lag. supply siders that came up with the theory -- >> whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

stockman is against supply side. he was dead set against it. that's why he was taken to the woodshed by reagan. he was against supply side economics. he was wrong. you're wrong. >> here's what i will say. everybody knows anything about supply side economics knows there's a lag. >> it happened immediately in 1983. >> no, it didn't. >> yes, it did. you're dead wrong. neil: susan and deirdre at this point are saying why did we agree to this. what were we thinking. let me ask this. when we talk about the average investor, he or she tends to get a bum rap. they are the last to turn out the lights at a party and the first to enter or whatever. i'm wondering when you talk to folks who have funds, it's much more pervasive today, people are invested in this market passively. they put the same amount in every month, every quarter. i wonder if any of that is disrupted by developments like this or is it on automatic?

some people don't even know, it's on automatic. that's what you hope keeps this market together because so much is automatic. >> i think some of the smarter investors kind of were referencing warren buffett. neil: who is way overrated. got that out of the way. >> it's a similar case to the old model, buy what you know. gary smith was talking about that. he's still going to safeway, still watching netflix. neil: i can't see gary b. smith at a safeway. i know it's possible. >> i'm a publix person. my former supermarket. neil: beyond that point, it's among the things you follow, those who invest on a religious basis every month, every quarter, that kind of thing has picked up steam not only corporations do it on behalf of their employees through their 401(k) plans but a lot of

employees are doing it themselves. it is not a huge number in the scheme of things but it's a bigger number than it used to be in prior down drafts. i'm wondering how much of a factor it could be. what do you think? >> i think you're on to a good point here. here in the retirement area of florida, i don't know of anyone other than myself that picks individual stocks. that whole time to be active in the stock market for our generation was years and years ago. now, my gosh, you drive down main street here in vero beach and all you see are wealth management advisers. everyone is saying look, i've got my money, i made my money and i'm just going to give it to someone else to invest passively. i think that's what happens. >> i'm looking at the back of your screen there. i thought there was a hurricane in florida. looks very calm where you are. >> we are -- there is, on the other coast.

>> jeff flock blew across. neil: another thing -- another thing, we forget that was it earlier this week, the shanghai fell over 5% in single day. >> biggest single loss in like three months. neil: we are seeing more and more of this. when you look at that market and the wild swings, we're not used to that. >> looking at the charts of shanghai and china, it goes up like this. we have had three crashes in -- neil: they are well into a bear market, right? >> they are. neil: lot of people are saying this is our future. >> china is different than the u.s., because stock ownership, very low compared to the united states. not many people invest in the stock market because they have been i guess conditioned to

understand they go up and they go down so it's 10% ownership. neil: is that right? wow. >> a lot of people make their money and invest it in property instead, whereas here in the u.s. it's close to more than 50%. neil: maybe that's the chickens coming home to roost. >> that's why they don't invest in stock markets. they don't trust the numbers. neil: to your point, the trade thing came up. they are vulnerable to the trade thing and we thought we were not because china will eventually come to the table. they don't show signs of coming to the table. but the president has been hoping on that. i can imagine if they did, and we scored some sort of deal and the markets would pounce on that as okay, the one last wrinkle is ironed out, it could take care of this entire sell-off in one day. but what do you make of that? >> lot of chinese rich people have their money here. they put a lot of money -- i know a lot of them, real estate, you name it. neil: not as many lately. >> maybe they cut back a little

bit. i know three or four chinese billionaires from my travels and they are heavily invested in this country in various ways. >> i wouldn't say they have been putting new money to work. it's already -- >> they already have it but they're not putting it back into their own country. >> peoples bank of china cut the reserve requirements something like three times fairly recently with the idea to -- neil: what does that mean? >> it just means that they want more money in the system to be able to invest and to spend, for example -- neil: they are preparing for a long trade war. that's my read into that. >> trying to loosen up what's happening in their domestic economy so people can spend locally or invest. i felt like that was saying we don't care about the tariffs but we are also going to do something to give it a shot in the arm. >> you know china very well. better than any of us. there is this idea that they think in terms of hundred years, we think in terms of months or even weeks when it comes to donald trump. is that true? are they willing to see this through to the bitter end no

matter how far down the market goes there? >> i think there is a high tolerance. i don't know if it's a hundred years, per se. maybe it's the cultural mentality. as i mentioned to neil before, they don't have elections. it's a different system there. he can wait out until the midterms, maybe see if donald trump and republicans are weakened, then come back to the table and deal. >> tariffs are going into the products of the states that did vote predominantly for president trump. that's been very strategic. >> the people i know with money over there do not believe in their numbers. what do they do? they move it here. >> if you can get your money out. here's the other thing. you got guns pointed to your head to a certain extent. if you have assets over there you get arrested. neil: gary b., is it your sense from the numbers, you seem to

minimize this panic that's going on here. you're not sloughing it off but play out what you think is going to happen here. >> well, you know, i guess part of it, large part depends how we finish today. if we start to spring back up in the last hour or so, i think that would be good. we finish right near the bottom, the worst losses of the day, i think people are going to wake up. they will of course see the headlines by all the negative nellies out there like charlie, and they will panic and probably the market will gap down and go down further. i'm just looking back like i said at the beginning, the last sell-off, 10%, we're not even down half that. could we slide another 3%, 4%, yeah, absolutely. then honestly, i think the institutions are going to look back and go hey, things seem to be pretty good out there. we even have a relatively low interest rate compared to history. they will start buying. i think that will perk the

market back up. neil: we shall see. thank you very, very much. we are just showing you on the full screen some of the luxury makers, down 7%, 8%, 9% or more. we are seeing it at the high end and normally trickles down to the low end and raises concerns the wealthy are feeling it, it's just a matter of time before we do. it's an old market law that sometimes is proven wrong but i just throw it out there because their names did come up. all right. not ignoring this hurricane, what's going on with michael, category 4 storm. the national hurricane center director ken graham with us right now. ken, i know you are having a very, very busy day. i appreciate your taking the time. update us. where does this thing stand right now? can you hear us? we have some difficulty there. just to let you know, the eyewall of this thing has hit land. we don't know the exact locale but that's when a lot of people can get cocky, see a little sunlight, think it's okay, the

worst is over. i suspect for folks in this region, they don't get so cavalier. what they are worried about now is 9 to 14 flood surges, 9 to 14 feet of flood surges along what could be a broad swath of area encompassing better than 300 miles along just the coast from the florida coast and that this could get worse before it gets better. it is also going to compromise at least nine rivers, seven of which were already overflowing from florence. this storm is fast-moving, about three times faster than florence. the only upside, it doesn't have time to do a lot of damage, just whips up through the carolinas, still doing a great deal of damage but for now, that damage could be limited. having said all of that, there have been evacuations in 22 largely florida counties along the panhandle but very few taking advantage of that brief

period of governor rick scott told them to get out of town. he's basically telling them way too late for that, batten down the hatches, we will get to you after that. ken graham is good right now, the national hurricane center director. ken, apologize for that technical problem. how are things looking? >> it's a very serious situation. some of the latest information we have, some sensors starting to get over 100 miles an hour winds as we have the eyewall making it to land. we are looking at powerful winds. you are talking about a lot of structural damage and trees down, power outages that can last for weeks. you look at the pressure that dropped, the latest information just came in, 919 millibars. that makes it one of the top three to four lowest pressures of a u.s. land-falling hurricane. incredibly catastrophic, historic storm. neil: thank you very, very much. i do appreciate the update. meantime, before we take a quick break, i do want to give you some interesting news that david passed along to me that might telegraph some problems on the interest rate front, right?

>> well, which one -- neil: the three-year note? >> three-year note, the auction was bad on the three-year note and ten-year note. neil: that wouldn't surprise me, would it? >> i think a lot of people are going to the shorter term rates, shorter term notes, which is what i was talking about before. if you can get 2.5% on a three-month rate right now, which is pretty close to that. i may be off by a couple of ticks. but why not just park your money in a place that's safe for three months, getting the same kind of interest that you are likely to get in the stock market considering where it was going, it had reached such high levels, so i think that's probably what's happening right now. people are gravitating from the longer year yield treasuries to the shorter yield treasuries which is what's going on. >> yields go up because prices go down. >> i'm talking about this particular auction that's happening right now. neil: a weak ten-year auction as well. all right. we follow that because obviously if you are convinced they will go down further, you're not going to run out in front and

try to get even more. they are anticipating rates presumably could back up still further. >> right. i'm sorry, i sent you another note. about david stockman. david stockman saying -- neil: this ship has come in. he's loving this. >> everybody is right at least once in their life. neil: armageddon is around the corner. everyone can be right like a broken clock depending on the time and period. we will continue monitoring this. with the dow sell-off now at these levels, much has been made of the fact how high is this or how much of a decline is this from our highs reached a little more than three weeks ago. it's about 3% for the dow, about 3.3% for the nasdaq, about 2.9% for the s&p 500. that's a moving target. it really has to do with where we stand at that exact moment. these are such high numbers, the percentage is what you want to keep in mind. for example, on october 19th, 1987, when the dow fell 580

points, that represented a quarter of its value. today, i'm doing the math backwards, i think it would be about 2.5%. so you have to keep these numbers in mind. that's why we try to give you the percentages. also letting you know, i think this was pointed out some time ago, while the ten-year is backing up to better than seven-year high, the two-year is getting a lot of attention because that's at levels we haven't seen since barack obama was elected president of the united states in 2008. that's getting a lot of attention, sort of scrunching down the yield curve. lot of people make a big deal about that. the gap between shorter and longer term treasury securities. it isn't always a barn burner and sure bet it will materialize this way but normally, normally when that happens, at the very least, it presages a slowdown. when it inverts and the shorter rates end up being higher than longer term rates, 100% of the time, this much is true, 100% of the time it leads to recession. we're not there yet. getting close. markets getting worried. investors getting skittish.

you at home better still watch. more after this.

neil: all right. so many storms, so little time. welcome back, everybody. i'm neil cavuto. we are keeping track of the mother nature variety, hurricane michael, a category 4 storm whose eyewall already hitting the coast and the president has been updated and briefed on that. more on that in just a second. of course, what's happening at the corner of wall and broad with the dow off again appreciably here. back and forth teasing session lows with a decline of about 1.5% or 400 points here. if you are keeping track of this, it has slid now more than 700 points from session highs that were reached a little more than a couple of weeks ago. for this entire sell-off, ditto for the s&p 500 and nasdaq, it has sort of lost all that ground that was gained in september. save technology stocks.

we're back to where we were about mid-september for most of the big money aggregates. we will get to that in just a second. first to this briefing that just happened with the president of the united states, fema officials and others. blake burman at the white house with more on all of the above. reporter: this massive hurricane that just made landfall in the northwest corner of florida and the florida panhandle clearly on top of mind for president trump here today at the white house. he was just briefed within the last hour or so by the head of the department of homeland security, dhs secretary nielsen and the head of fema as well, brock long. each storm has its own set of unique characteristics and unique worries. with the 145 mile an hour winds sustained up to 175 miles per hour, that is the single biggest worry for forecasters and for those in that region but the president and head of fema also talked about how they had a couple different concerns. one, how this evolved so fast, so many people weren't able to get out and evacuate ahead of

time. the evacuation numbers not as high as they would have liked to have seen. but also, many in that area simply just do not have the financial means to evacuate as well. here was president trump just a little while ago. >> it's not so easy for some of these people to leave. some of the areas are very poor. not easy for a person without the necessary money to leave so what we have done is we have sent buses, we have sent a lot of different -- we are doing a lot of different things the try and remove people from the area. reporter: the focus obviously right now on the florida panhandle. it will then move into georgia but this is not just going to be a florida/georgia event because the storm will move into south carolina and north carolina. president trump talked about how that area is still saturated from the storm that hit there just a couple weeks ago. in fact, brock long during that briefing said the water from cape fear was supposed to head out starting just a couple days ago. now they are going to get this additional storm to come on in and sort of replace that water. so it's something they are going

to still be dealing with in north carolina. as for the president and his schedule today, he is supposed to be going to pennsylvania in a few hours from now for an event, a rally there later tonight, but that still appears to be tbd at the moment as they keep an eye on this storm. neil: thank you, blake burman. by the way, the president has already talked about, prior to today, the federal reserve moving a little too quickly on interest rates. we are going to explore that again, because he is one of the first presidents, probably the first president to make it very, very well known, most presidents feel on this subject they don't want a party interrupted by rising interest rates. to that in a second. first on the hurricane fallout here and how various companies are at least trying to do their part to help out. deirdre has that. >> u-haul are offering free self-storage for 30 days. if anybody needs it, if you just go on u-haul's website, carolinas, florida, georgia, alabama, if you are a resident

of one of those states and in the hurricane's path, basically they are willing to offer 30 days free, whether you want to store your things there and you need to get out of town or they also have these boxes that i guess just kind of, you put on your car for 30 days. neil: a lot of them do that. like airlines will forgive ticket fees and surcharges if you change your flights or whatever. >> yeah, change fees for airlines, that's been announced as well. if you want to get out of the way of the storm. also cruises, if you want to rebook, they allow for free changes. also, i think "the washington post" is now offering stories and alerts on the hurricane for free so you can access the website. neil: good stuff, all. it sometimes happens, right? in corporate america. all right. let's get the read on what's happening with the federal reserve, because this sell-off at its core has everything dodd with rising interest rates. a lot of people, we were talking about this earlier, look at this backup in rates and say gosh, we

can remember when rates were certainly a lot higher but it's what you get used to. ten-year treasury now does represent the highest we have seen on that in about seven years and it jars a lot of folks who have gotten used to sort of nothing like it. to terry jeffrey joining the esteemed panel. what do you make of that? i can remember, i joke about it enough here that my crew is tired of hearing it, that was kind of what my wife and i were paying per day for our first mortgage. we were married back in the 1880s. it's a long time. but you know, it's what we get used to. a lot of people are not used to that and it does force a lot of people who heretofor might have qualified for a mortgage out of the running. is it a big deal? will it get worse of a deal? >> i remember that era, too. this morning i went back and did a little research looking at the average interest rates on treasury securities. if you look at the end of fiscal 2007, september 30th, 2007, just

a few months before the great recession started in december 2008, the average interest on treasuries then was 5%. at the end of this fiscal year it was 2.494%. but the difference is the amount of debt the government has accumulated in the intervening years, 8 of the last 11 years the government has borrowed $1 trillion or more. fiscal 2018, we borrowed $1.27 trillion. we now have $15.7 trillion in debt held by the public. if we see interest rates go back up to 5% over the next four years, and the government keeps borrowing at this rate, we are going to have $20 trillion in publicly held debt. the government is going to have to spend $1 trillion on interest and we could be in a situation where the federal government is running a trillion dollar annual debt, borrowing a trillion dollars, turning around and handing the trillion dollars out in interest to the people it borrowed money from before.

neil: we haven't even gotten there. all the states and municipalities, if you add up their liabilities, would double that $15 trillion, $16 trillion. doesn't take much of an uptick in rates to do that. i was raising this with david and the gang during the break here about how much could be renegotiated. how much you can sort of refinance it, does the federal government take longer term maturitie maturities, vice versa. do we have any wiggle room on that? >> here's the other thing that if you look at the structure of the debt, you are talking about the short term treasury bills earlier, we have $2.2 trillion roughly in short term treasury bills, maturity year or less and there's only about 1.37 in long term bonds. so most of the publicly held debt is in bills and treasury notes. it's like an adjustable rate mortgage on the federal government. when the interest rates start to spike, the impact on the average

interest rate the federal government is paying will rise faster because so much of that debt was sold for short periods of time in order to keep the interest rate down. neil: you have to differentiate short term rates over which the federal reserve has some control and longer term rates that are really in the hands of the market. the markets seem to be saying they anticipate short term rates going still higher and the economic activity alone will justify rates going higher. do you subscribe to that, because that's a trend that could go on for awhile and take rates prohibitively higher. >> well, i think the bigger worry is the structure of the fiscal actions of the federal government on a year to year basis. we have a government that is spending far more than it can bring in in revenue. if you tried to balance the budget this last year, for example, we have a little bit over $4 trillion in spending. we will proba bit over $3 trillion in revenue. you would have to increase tax revenue by a third to balance

the budget. we have an all republican government. they're not talking about balancing the budget. so what's going to happen is the actual, the level of debt is going to increase so if we get to a point where interest rates really spike, quite frankly, we will have a financial crisis, the government's not going to be able to deal with it. by the way, the federal reserve is still the number one owner of debt. they bought up all that debt during quantitative easing. they still hold that debt. the federal reserve has more debt than china. china has essentially stopped increasing its debt holdings. we have two entities out there, china and the federal reserve, that are the biggest creditors of a government that is running an annual debt of $1 trillion. neil: you have done it again. i was looking forward to lunch. now a little less so. >> sorry about that. neil: hang on, my friend. i want to bring david asman into this. you were reminding me we are getting close, we're not there yet, where our debt payments are eclipsing anything else.

defense still leads. that could be in question next year, i guess. what do you make of the kind of will it's going to take and how likely -- >> will? inside the beltway? there is none. neil: you would need a lot more tax revenue alone. i don't see the appetite there. nor, by the way, do i think that's necessary. i think certainly getting a handle on spending or controlling the growth of our spending, and we don't see an appetite for that. >> mitch mcconnell has a lot of bragging rights with regard to the kavanaugh thing but while he was bragging about getting the kavanaugh thing through last weekend, he said you know, unknown to a lot of people we carried out a lot of successful things during this process. it wasn't just kavanaugh. we passed a budget, another one of our -- well, it's successful in terms of beltway talk but is it successful to continue this kind of deficit spending we have been doing for so long? again, i think the important thing to realize is it's not specifically because of tax cuts that we have this huge deficit. it's because of spending.

we continue to spend. some of it may be reasonable. we needed to beef up our defense, particularly in a very dangerous world. it was a dangerous world because we slackened in defense. that's my opinion. the more we build up defense, perhaps the safer the world becomes. still, that costs money. it costs money, though it's worthwhile to remember during the reagan administration, too, lot of people complained about the deficit growing in the reagan administration. terry, you will remember that. it did grow, but it didn't grow because of d back those. it grew because of defense spending. now, what's happened recently, we are growing in both areas. both spending more on defense and spending more on domestic programs, a lot of which aren't working out too well. neil: to your point, if this continues, there's very little sign it will be addressed the remainder of this fiscal year, very unlikely next year, so a trillion dollars added to our deficit say for the next three fiscal years, people are numb to

the severity of it, aren't they? no one is talking about it. >> no one is talking about it. if you force politicians, members of congress to talk about it, they will all admit this is unsustainable. but they are unwilling to do anything about it. a symptom of the way washington works, with mitch mcconnell earlier this year, mitch mcconnell, chuck schumer, richard shelby and patrick leahy, ranking member on the appropriations committee, made a deal on spending where they said they wouldn't put any quote unquote, poison pills in any appropriation bill, which basically meant chuck schumer had a veto over the spending bills coming through an all republican congress. what did they do last week? sent president trump a bill that took the defense appropriation quote unquote, married it to labor, hhs, education appropriation, those are the two biggest appropriations. they put them together in one bill and then put a c.r. on it to fund the rest of the government through december 7th and sent it up to president trump, said you can't shut down

the government. basically, congress extorted president trump on the spending bill. tell you the truth, president trump needs to fight the republican leadership in congress harder. he's got to lead on this. he's got to tell them what to do. he's got to get out his veto pen. if he needs to shut down the government for a few days rather than have chuck schumer dictate how a republican congress -- neil: the president is not -- he also has to submit a balanced budget himself and at least put that in motion. i think there's enough blame to go around. terry, thank you very, very much. always good chatting with you even when you are so depressing. all right. hurricane michael intensifying, making landfall in florida. it's a category 4 storm. panama city beach, florida is where the epicenter seems to be, which you know it, that's exactly where jeff flock is. jeff? reporter: yeah, came in just to the east of us. panama city beach is here.

panama city is just a little bit east of panama city beach. then it came in just a little bit east of there. this is what a hurricane looks like. if you want to know what a hurricane looks like. this is not cat 4 conditions we are looking at right here. we are probably getting cat 1, cat 2 conditions because we didn't get the eyewall. we are just on the outer edge of the eyewall. but i'm not standing out there. i know you saw me earlier perhaps in less fierce conditions standing out in the middle there. you wouldn't want to stand out there now. you cannot stand up in that kind of wind we are getting hit with right now. it could have been worse. it came in at a spot that i think is a little bit less [ inaudible ] and that's a good thing. again, i'm not seeing any major stuff here but of course, we are only seeing a limited area because we're not wanting to be

out and about yet. we will check that out in a bit. my headline on this, it could have been worse but it's not over yet. neil? neil: my headline on this is you are a dear friend and we love you here and we want you safe. get inside. thank you, jeff. reporter: always keep the crew safe. we want to keep them safe. they are more important than i am. neil: they told me to say that about you. just take care of yourself, all right? jeff flock in the middle of it all. there's no one better at covering these monstrosities but he's getting up there like my age. he's got to stop. to me, what's aggressive is walking to mcdonald's. he's a different breed. also a different breed, sell-off going on here. the dow jones industrials, s&p 500, nasdaq here, much has been made of this and in and out of 400 points. it's amazing what you get used to because every time we get under 400 points, whoa, whoa, we are through the worst but that's pretty bad, down 1.5%. about 700 points off our highs that were established little

more than a few weeks ago. perspective is everything, but the perspective right now is that anything that was looking to take advantage of low interest rates is now falling off on the prospect they are going higher. only thing the markets are trying to grapple with is how much higher. they don't know, we don't know. into that abyss selling ensues.

neil: well, interest rates backing up and stocks falling down has been the rule of thumb this week but it's taken on special urgency today. the "the new york post" pulitzer price winning columnist michael goodwin making sense of what's going on here. i'm wondering if this ends up being a bigger factor than we appreciated going into the midterms, with less than four weeks from now. >> look, pocketbook issues are always number one for most people. anything that sort of drives up the price of gasoline or makes people feel that they have lost their nest egg or that their 401(k) declined suddenly makes people nervous. i think a lot of it does have to do with which way is it going. is it going up or is it going down, the economy, my savings, that sort of thing.

so yes, it can have an immediate impact on people's voting habits. neil: the effect of the kavanaugh thing and all that anger on the right that the democrats were horrific to him? >> sure, i think the kavanaugh thing was always destined to be short-term. nothing lasts 30 days anymore in this news flow where someone described it covering the trump administration as like trying to drink water out of a fire hose. the volume defeats the purpose. neil: that means you can't. >> you just get the sensation. i do think there's so much going on that it's hard to predict what will be the big factor in 30 days. if the market turns around again and goes up, then this will be forgotten also. neil: you also wonder, david, about the tendency on the part of this president to always refer back to the market. you know, even during down periods -- >> that's true. dangerous to link yourself to something so volatile. neil: it could change and in

this case, it always does. will it continue? >> i think so. i think the economy will continue. i think the fact is that companies have made investments now, big-time investments. yes, there have been some stock buy-backs but there have also been significant investments. they will play out those investments. one thing that makes me a little nervous is expectations for corporate profits are now so high, if corporate profits come in a little less, a market as volatile as the one we are seeing right now might freak out even more, and perhaps that could be a problem. >> to michael's point about gasoline, we have seen energy prices rise something like 10% in the past month, and that's something, if that continues, that does affect a lot of people who have to drive to where they are going, obviously not so much in new york city, but outside of the big cities. neil: driving to the polls, right? >> when they started the administration they talked about mark to market and you can tell, look, we are 1,000 points away from record highs. 1% or 2% away from the same level for the s&p and 50-year

best when it comes to unemployment. neil: i guarantee you this. you are very good at this, studying the media and all that, but we will get a lot more attention to the sell-off than the runup. >> oh, sure. look, if there are any job layoffs, oh, my god, it's the end of the trump bubble and certainly the market will follow. the media will be very quick to chronicle the end of the trump boom without having chronicled the boom itself. neil: how much have they credited to him versus barack obama? >> well, i saw a head line the other day i believe in the "new york times" that the unemployment rate continues an eight-year climb, eight-year growth. look, there's the reality that it has spiked under donald trump. yes, there was a new normal of under 2% under obama, the gdp growth. you get to 3.5% to 4%, there's millions of jobs at stake when you are talking about that kind of difference over an extended period. that's what i think it will take some time to really see the full

effect, but if this can keep going, this would be an economy that i think will be very hard to challenge come 2020. neil: do you believe what the president says that it's 2016 all over again, the media ignored all the stuff he was saying and everything, these gains, everything that came under his watch, the mainstream media, all those guys are missing it again and will be fooled again? >> look, i think the media was warned by 2016. i think they have improved some of their polling. don't forget, the midterms -- neil: but their hatred -- >> oh, somebody distorts some of the questions they're asked, you can see the bias in the questions. look, i think the midterms are always a different animal from a presidential election. you get different voters and fewer of them. it's a trickier thing to predict in a midterm. neil: all right. one thing to watch is just how average investors respond to all of this, right? >> well, average investors i think are the first to cash out

when things get nervous. i mean, they are the ones that -- neil: not all the time. >> not all the time. again, as we talked about before, the seasoned traders, the institutional traders, are ones that are in for the long term. they don't panic as much as individuals do, or jump on the band wagon as immediately as individual retail investors do. so that's the reason why it's best again to sit back. you know, susan, we pointed this out before, the market was at 18,000, the dow was at about 18,000 at the time of the election. 18,000. look at it now. 26,000 is after the severe 422 point drop we have had. we are still about 40% ahead of where we were in november of 2016. again, that's when all of the so-called experts, the nobel prize winning economists were saying this market is going to tank and is never going to recover. we were 40% better than we were at that point. it's best to remember that, not

necessarily to jump out -- maybe you want to cash in your chips right now which is fine, take your 40%, put it into short-term bond, wait until the midterm elections are over -- neil: when you do that, you take that 40%, that's a big >> if you care for a year-and-a-half you don't have to pay the highest tax rate. i'm not suggesting people do that. i suggest a lot of people are doing that right now. taking their profits and waiting until after the election. if the democrats take over both the house and senate, you're a better judge than i am. that could mean a lot of panic in terms of the markets what happens with economic policy. neil: real quick, any impact on the election? >> i'm deferring, i'm watching energy prices. watching how many days stocks and bond trade off together. those are my two focal points. >> since 1946, no matter who wins, great year for stocks.

15% up on average. neil: no matter who they are the they're feeling pretty cocky, feeling pretty good, right? >> this rising economy is lifting all boats. i think if it continues it is going to be very hard. on the other hand david's point what would happen if democrat took both houses, you had the move to impeach -- neil: all bets off. >> no judicial approvals. >> how likely is that on scale of one to 10? >> right now the democratic party i think is unhinged. it is rabid about not just defeating trump but annihilating trump. >> hillary clinton says there should be no civility with people you disagree with what? neil: i don't know. my panel, great job, you might feel it too. doesn't mean we're any less jealous or angry at you. just reminder of my buddy,

david, "bulls and bears." >> david, david, david. neil: he knows of what he speaks but, if you know what he was thinking you better run and hide. but on monday. >> you will find out on monday. neil: trish regan who is down to the final few days trish: powerful hurricane michael bringing with it destructive winds. florida with the worst hurricane in a century. welcome to "the intelligence report. we have a dangerous cat-4 hurricane making landfall just moments ago, hitting that land, seeing water levels as high as 14 feet above