you're on next monday. susan: fine. >> the highlight was the presidential visit. now the fight with charles payne. you're trying to take everybody's dreams away, stu, how dare you. it was great. stuart: i will introduce neil a few seconds early. neil, you liked our discussion on the lottery i believe? neil: no. i saw where you were coming from. my favorite in your show, i know you had a great week was the klitschko interview. i tell you why. he was very funny. he and his brother are one of the few boxers you know, you follow the sport, almost as you do wine, by the way the guy with the twist-off cap version? here is what i love with klitschko, you humanized him which i found very refreshing, he is proof, his brother is proof, not only keep the money in the ring, a lot of these guys don't, mike tyson went through a billion dollars, they have a

cottage industry, management skills, clerk courses books. stuart: he is articulate guy. i think we'll have him on again. neil: i think you learned something not asking a boxer of his reknown tough questions. his temper can be pretty nasty. great show. great week. make it a wrestle weekend. we are following a couple other developments here. everyone is paying attention what is happening at corner of wall and broad. we have the on going tensions. what exactly will we do regarding saudi arabia? the administration seems to be telegraphing something is going to be done and then you immediately start looking for what areas might be affected. the backdrop of the big comeback, again earnings, optimism, whatever we target with the saudis it won't be too, too bad. a lot of you step back, well, they killed a journalist. if that is proven true, it is callous to look at this. i understand where you're coming from. it is about the green, looking

at any global impact if we cut off ties with the saudis. so far they say that does not appear to be the case. there will be some punishment meted out here we just don't know what kind of punishment. deirdre bolton is here to break it down. what's up, deirdre? >> october is living up to the reputation being the most volatile month in the calendar. if you look this month, even despite today's gains and this week's gains, i want to underline green on the screen today, green so far for the week, this is where we stand for the month. obviously red arrows here, down 3 1/2%, 4 1/2%, more than 6 1/2% for the nasdaq. the bright spot, the storyline we're following through the week is about earnings. we have seen numerous companies from various industries perform better than expected. when we have seen the green arrows this week, it is almost one for one been about that. so you have american press, axp,

paypal, skechers, left over from last night. all the companies exceeding expectations. we're still at the beginnings of this earnings season. 15% of s&p 500 companies have reported. but of that 15%, about 83% have exceeded. that was really a big question going into this earnings season. is the bar too high? so far, so good. so far look at dow winners. proctor & gamble we heard from. goldman sachs exceeding expectations. disney strong as well. dow laggards. this is a little bit more of a mixed picture. ibm, you will see a big decliner. they actually met earnings targets. their problem was revenue. there is problem with revenue growth. all the areas ibm extended to, wanted to build, they fell short on the revenue side. home depot, credit suisse, talking about housing softness, that will affect some home depot

creditors, as blows. that was in-- lowe's. that was included in the call. tariff tensions, a huge drop-off in the shanghai comp, that was four-year low. that affected some larger industrial stocks. look at oil. you were talking about saudi arabia and tensions with the country. oddly enough, oil, if you look at it from a weekly stance, is actually seems to be the oil market ignoring largely what is going on, at least based on the drop there. neil, back to you. neil: nice overview. thank you very, very much. all right we still have four hours to bo. we'll see if we maintain these gains. but as deirdre pointed out, net-net, it's a tough month of the get more on the report here. the president is vowing severe consequences for the saudis in response to the latest developments and intelligence that seems to show that one way or the other they were behind at least an interrogation the saudis say went bad, others say was meant to go back from the

beginning of course jamal khashoggi. former deputy advisor to bush 43 elliot abrams. elliot, good to have you back. >> good to be here. neil: let me ask you on the intelligence people are combing through. we're all it is all turkish-based. in other words, all sources i read, say according to turkish authorities, turkish authorities, there is no double sourcing on that. in other words no one else is able to confirm what the turks are saying. should i worry about that? >> well we may have some intelligence much our own that you and i don't know about, that would be nice but looks as if the saudis will accept some responsibility here. they may blame it on some intelligence guy. looks like they will not dispute the basic notion that he went into the saudi consulate in istanbul and never came out alive. neil: now the issue, assuming that is the case, what do we do in response? we were showing the markets

before, you're far too erudite to get caught up in investor swings day-to-day, but they seem to discount this will a big deal for the global economy or the global markets. evidence of a comeback in saudi stocks and maybe the come back today in our own, what do you think? >> i think that's right. i don't think the president will do anything to damage the united states and american national interests. we have huge interests in saudi arabia that help us. we have intel ties that help us avoid terrorism. we have defense ties. we will not break those ties over this. those are ties not with one mans the crown prince, they're ties with saudi arabia that go back backpack -- go back to 1945. the idea that he will not impose economic sanction or break the military tie, that's right, he is not going to do that. neil: do you get the sense this

could easily lead to at this time for fat, much what happened to china on trade front? we threaten action. they threaten counter actions. back and forth we go. the saudis might entertain, lowering oil production, stopping shipments to the united states, that could jack up oil prices, could boomerang on them, that their response will be just as critical, what do you think? >> it will but i don't think that is going to happen. i think, i imagine what is going to happen, i certainly think what should happen, we're talking to the saudis about what i would call governance. that is how do we prevent something like this from happening again. the trouble with their system they have a one-man band, 33-year-old, mohammed bin salman, doesn't know the united states, fairly new to this, running everything. he is deputy prime minister crown minister. running secretary of defense. i would talk to the king, look

like something more after government, with the crown prince there, but with division of responsibilities where you have killed people doing things they need to be doing. the problem nobody in the system was smart enough, or had the guts to say, whoa, this is a terrible idea, don't do it. that is what is missing in their system. neil: can we do that? is that up to us to do that to insert ourselves for all the right reasons you alluded to, elliot, but how the saudis conduct their kingdom? one idea the father can say to the son, you're out of here and look to any one of the 12 sons, whatever, there is quite a few choices but the basic math and running of the country won't change? >> well, first, i don't think he is going to replace, it is up to him, up to the king. neil: right, right. >> he does have other sons. mohammed is not oldest, he is number four son but the king

chose him. he thought he would do the best job. i think he will stick with him. the path of least resistance for the king, moment homed, govern system has to change here, more people need to be involved, he can't be a one-man band. that is something we should be pushing so something is never repeated. i don't think, can we do it, we can certainly give the best advice to the king. this is a moment he is apparently looking at some other members of the royal family for advice. for 65 years since the death of founder bin saud, they have a collective type of leadership. what they have now, it is new and different and it seems not to be working so great. neil: interesting. elliot abrams, thank you for your time. >> a pleasure. neil: if mr. abrams is right, the crown prince stays or most extreme case might be replaced by any one of a dozen brothers

then what? if there is no punishment meted out per se to mohammed bin salman and he is the force behind the interrogation and apparent death of jamal khashoggi, then what? the markets are good sort of a read of things, they don't think this will escalate out of financial control, but what would the aftermath of that be like for markets and world reaction? to first trust advisor chief economist, brian wesbury, independent women's forum expert on all these things, hadley heath manning. hadley, in the enthat, the crown prince is likely to say -- stay and certainly not be punished, then what? >> certainly this story is riveting, fascinating, and horrific some of the details we're finding out however the united states as previous guest mentioned has the responsibility to put our national interests first. what that means in the area of the middle east is a very

complex policy. we're dealing with a region of the world rife with bad guys, various interests and especially our policy toward iran. we have to continue to keep not just our economic haves in mind but also our national security interests in mind. i don't know that this event will make a full reshaping of policy in the middle east, certainly concerning something we can condemn, i don't know that it will result in a foot basket turnover. neil: brian wesbury looking at impact, what do you think? >> hard for me to imagine, this issue with saudi arabia will change the course of the u.s. economy in any major way. no doubt in the middle east and if you look at global arrangements that we have with the saudis and with, and in the middle east, there are going to be changes but for the economy as a whole, we're strong. profits are booming.

the job market is strong. i think the u.s. stock market is going to be fine. neil: so you don't see this, as much more, i don't mean to minimize, listen, you told me it's a financial show which it is, this is not going to be a big disruption to your strategy and other investors strategy? >> no. i want to back up for a second. in the united states we cut our corporate tax rates. we're pushing up tariffs. trying to bring tariffs down around the world. we're producing more oil than we have ever produced. all of this takes away a subsidy we provide the rest of the world. there is a reason why there is unrest around the world. china is slowing down. saudi arabia has to change. so the united states is 25% of the world gdp. we just changed the rules of the game in a major way. i think a lot of the issues that

we see around the world today are because of how we've changed things. and so, you know, the world is trying to figure out now how to deal with, what we're doing. and i think cutting corporate tax rates and putting up tariffs is forcing other countries to change and that's why there is this turmoil out there. neil: assuming it is not going to be a financial impact at all, hadley, i'm wondering, 2 1/2 weeks out, whether it will have any midterm impact? what do you think? >> you know i think it's a another opportunity for president trump to demonstrate his america first policy on the world scene. you know, brian mentioned energy and how important it is that we do have energy abundance here at home. brings that issue into play in voters mind. energy bun dan sy is not just so we have affordable energy for our homes and our cars, so when

it comes to geopolitics around the world, we have more power looking across the table at nations that can be bad actors, that treat their own citizens badly, treat women badly, important for american women to consider factors when we head to the polls. >> right. neil: i'm getting some news, for all i know these two fine folks are running out getting their tickets, the megamillions jackpot has soared to a billion dollars. i take that at face value. that is separate from the powerball jackpot. so the megamillions part, there is separate powerball, those two together are 1 1/2 billion dollars. kristina partsinevelos is following this, the odds to win this, you have to be in it to win it. the only person i know not participating in the country is stuart varney but virtually everyone else is, after this.

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>> well there weren't exactly people fleeing themselves off building not that we could see today, a record number of people gathering outside the new york stock exchange to sort of witness the history in the making. opportunity to see incredible drops for the dow right before their ice.

>> i want to see what it looks like in this condition. then i wanted to see this stock market anyway. >> we want to see a piece of the action i guess. wall street. >> what they saw was program selling taken to the ultimate art form as wall street's very biggest players stepped in and unloaded multibillion dollars blocks of shares, much of it fueled by mutual fund hard hit by individuals pulling their money out. neil: 31 years ago today, the kicker about covering that at the time, my friends at pbs, nightly business report, thanks for allowing us to use that, pub puberty kicked in a couple days later. look at that hair. who has hair like that. what was i thinking? back to the thing i was covering about me, john layfield wasn't even born at the time, but he can offer some perspective on it. kidding notwithstanding, john, one thing i'm reminded about '87 and magazine covers, newspaper

headlines, warning of a financial pock -- apocalypse about a freeze that would turn out to be depression, wrong, wrong. we've seen it play out post-87, crashes, crashettes, what do you think about that? >> '87 is indicative about how bull markets end. bull markets don't end in a whimper but in crashes because of some political event. ronald reagan came out with a calm, reassuring voice. neil: right. >> most of these events that happened, look at 2000, it was bubble. 2008 it was a bubble. '73, it was more geopolitical event with the arab oil embargo. most are precipitated about some outside external event. i think that will end this one. i don't know when it is going to end but obviously it is going to end. neil: i'm glad you said that, many years we've known each

other, john, this is the preprofessional wrestling days, i found you were very calm looking at history of markets. they don't die of old age, they're usually punctuated by outside developments that kick them down fast. are there factors or issues you're looking a today that could disrupt it? maybe not the long-term momentum which history invariably, we were showing a couple graphs as you were speaking, they do go up but punctuated by these sharp swings, what are you looking for now that could produce the same? >> i think there is two geopolitical events right now that are significant. look at trade tariffs, what could expand from that. look at china right now, because china's gdp was up in july, august, september, exports are up. a lot was front-loading getting ahead of the tariffs. they're not feeling effect of tariffs. it could change when they go to 25% tariffs first part of the year. part of that china is entrenched

and dug in. this could last quite a while. i don't foe if that is the precipitator could happen with the next recession or oil price. look at oil price, million barrels came off the market. saudi and russia don't have the excess capacity to mop that up. if sanctions go on saudi, add that to the fact iran has 1 1/2 million barrels coming off in november because of these sanctions, the problems in angola, libya, venezuela along with the pipeline problem capacity in west texas, you could have a year here of significantly high oil prices. those are two big events i'm worried about. neil: they make sense. you tell investors they time the market, when to get in, when to get out, i always say investments are for the long haul. of course that changes the older you get i understand. but how do you advise investors in highly volatile period to handle their money? >> i think you buy good companies and stay with them. you wait for companies to go on

sale facebook trading 250 bucks. trading 154. this is one of the big growth companies last 20 years. you're at least getting 30% discount from its high. if you go into these companies, you will have ups and downs, have ups and downs for last 30 years. '87, 2008, you vault in the first part of 80, 20 time return off s&p alone. you buy good companies. hold on to them. hold on to them unless something changes inside that company that makes you want to sell that stock. >> thank you, my friend. john layfield reporting from the safe confines of bermuda. meantime if you want to issue stock market and take your chances elsewhere, there is always lottery. megamillions hitting a billion dollars the does not include the separate powerball wincings. we have kristina partsinevelos following all this. what is the latest. reporter: neil, you're right, it

does not actually include the powerball at $431. combined it is $1.43 billion. everyone coming buying a ticket, you're buying a ticket, should i assume so? >> yes we are. reporter: how many are you buying? >> 20 all together. reporter: 20. how do you feel? are you feeling very lucky? >> feeling very lucky. we have the ticket. reporter: they think they have the ticket. so did the woman this morning. she said she was feeling good, her heart was palpitating about this. this is the second largest megamillion jackpot in the united states. the last one that was won won by a pool of 11 people. people are coming in here, however, neil, everybody watching i'm not sure about the chances though. the chances of winning both the megamillion and the powerball are 1 in 88 quadrillion, a big,

big, big number. if you're talking about winning the actual powerball you have better chance being attacked by a shark. better chance of becoming a saint. you have a better chance of getting a royal flush in poker than winning this jackpot. i shouldn't say that. this poor woman is getting her ticket. probably not the best thing to say at the moment on live tv. i will throw it back to you unless you have more questions? neil: i did have a question for you, you know our mutual friend and buddy, stuart varney, very cheap. wonderful up hook. extremely cheap. he was actually moaning about people who go get these tickets because the government take roughly half. i'm thinking you win a billion dollars, you're lamenting the fact you give 500 million to the government. it seems like a crazy, idiotic thought, i wanted to know whether you agree that was a crazy idiotic thought for stuart?

your thoughts. >> if we look at number, federal tax rate is 25% across the country. it varies according to state and city tax. yes, a huge chunk is taken off. yes a large portion of people buying and spending a lot of money on lottery tickets. there is the joy and hope you could potentially win. i'm not for it. i'm not buying a a ticket at all but there is a lot. neil: those want to take it as one lump sum. stuart sucked the life out of this beautiful moment, you know? >> i know, i know. shame on stu. shame on him. neil: i wanted to put you in a no-win situation. kristina, great job following this. you have to be in it to win it. what are your thoughts on that? always email us, text us, do all of that. no nasty comments. i literally cannot deal with that this week. i just can't. meantime, china, i don't know what we believe when china talks about growth numbers.

apparently they grew in the latest quarter, what is it around 6 1/2%. i don't believe it. i just don't believe it. that is deemed disappointment. but be that as it may it was a disappointment because they're expecting something closer to seven. the markets there are tanking. i think it has a lot more to do than just trade. it has a lot to do we don't believe numbers coming out of your country. that is the problem. and that is a very big problem. after this. every investor shouk questions. is our money in the right place? what am i really being charged? and is it eating into my returns? is my advisor a fiduciary? is he always a fiduciary? a good place to start is with an independent registered investment advisor. as fiduciaries, they live by a simple rule: always act in the best interests of their clients. that's why charles schwab is proud to support more independent financial advisors

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neil: you know if not for saudi arabia this news along the border would be even bigger news right now. mike pompeo, the secretary of state is in mexico. the mexico foreign minister is addressing with the secretary of state we're told what to do about this caravan that is coming from central and

south america. edward lawrence with the very, very latest from washington, d.c. edward. reporter: neil, in mexico city, secretary of state mike pompeo just told the foreign minister of mexico we want these caravans stopped before they get into mexico. they appreciate or the u.s. appreciates mexico's help on this. mexico reached out to the united nations high commission for refugees to help with the caravan issue. what is happening right now the united nations is helping set up tents along the mexican, central american border to validate have lid of asylum claims. if they have a legitimate case, they will be allowed to pass through mexico. if they do not they will be turned back. this was a plan developed over the past few months with the cooperation of the united states. >> that will allow us to have a process by which, in our border, we will make sure that, observing human right, respecting international law, if there are legitimate claims to refugee, those can be processed

in a, in a very clear way. reporter: some democrats say we need to look at the folks in the caravan a little bit differently because they're fleeing violence in honduras, other parts of that country or parts of that world. representative january shack cows ski -- jan is says we haveo support refugees and stop turning a blind high to the hernandez's repression and violence. >> they want to move across multiple boredders to get to the u.s. it isn't and a asylum issue. it is they want to move to the u.s. illegally. reporter: president still threatened to cut funding to countries where the migrants are coming from. they're fleeing violence in honduras mainly but guatemala and el salomon smith barney have door. the u.s. as given those

countries $2.6 billion the past few years. the aid may be cut if the countries cannot stop the caravans. neil? neil: thank you edward, thank you very much. the world is a flutter over news out of china shows growth could be slowing there. the slowest growth if you believe the figures coming out of china a decade. the latest gdp dropping 6 1/2%. they were expecting something more than 7%. that is 50% stronger than the growth going on in the united states. now just test credulity here, having said all of that they're in armed would of hurt. their market is well into bear market territory. in other words it has fallen more than 20% from its highs and taking a lot of asian markets with it. to nuclear showdown author, gordon chang, first of all, gordon, do you trust the 6 1/2

figure? >> clearly not, neil. they are saying, this is my favorite, retail sales increased 9.2% in september. but that very same month, vehicle sales, which is a major component of retail sales dropped 11.6%. we're seeing a fall in vehicle sales all three months of the quarter. this 6.5% number doesn't really make sense. i think china is growing in the high 2s or the low 3s, which means by the way the u.s. is growing faster because in q3 according to the atlanta fed gdp tracker we'll probably grow 4.2%. neil: you know the argument has been because china is slowing down, if we accept the numbers they're slowing down to, they're in a world of hurt and they are more inclined to come to the table to negotiate with us when it comes to trade concessions and the like. they vent done that yet. what do you think happens?

>> xi xinping, the chinese ruler, is a tough guy. he understands if shows any sense of weakness, basically his adversaries and enemies would pounce on them. over the last six years he he deinstitutionalized the communist party. if he loses power, he may lose his freedom and maybe even his life they are going back to basically maoist style politics. he will not give up without a real fight. neil: if he doesn't give up, doesn't blink in the face of threats back and forth, this gets worse before it gets better? >> sure. we see xi xinping taking the chinese economy and people's republic down with him. there are grave consequences for china with all of this. neil, we don't have any choice because the chinese have been stealing hundreds of billions of dollars of u.s. intellectual property each year. we have a innovation-based

economy. if we can't. this is critical to our future. neil: thank you very much, gordon chang. meantime we're learning about all a these companies that have decided to opt out of this saudi conference that was supposed to go on but, not all of them. or at least not all of their people. the stunning story behind this story of a no show after this. v. some advisers have hidden and layered fees. fisher investments never does. and while some advisers are happy to earn commissions from you whether you do well or not, fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. maybe that's why most of our clients come from other money managers. fisher investments. clearly better money management.

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neil: that big ol' rally we had going on has dissipated quite a bit. volume is 2/3 of volume on a friday going into a weekend. we've seen sectors gone south a little bit, including some of the financials. we'll try to ascertain who is selling what. whether they're just running into the powerball or

megamillions or what have you, but i wouldn't make too, too much of this especially like a week on this but we're following this for you as well with interest rates ticking up to 3.20 on the 10-year note. last i looked we entered the day around 3.15. that could be another catalyst. that is just my guess. i don't want to posit something that might not be the case. meantime charlie gasparino is talking about who is going or not going to this saudi arabia financial confab. everyone has decided to say we're not going but that is not quite the close. >> not even close the case. the most duplicitous firm on this whole issue is goldman sachs. david salomon, the ceo of goldman sachs came out as we reported junior executives still likely to go from goldman sachs to the saudi conference despite the murder of journalist

kashoggi. he comes says basically nobody is going from goldman, with the weasel word, using notion of no senior executives are going. here is what we know. neil: that is it what he said? >> he expressed outrage by the killing and saudi arabia has to answer for this. we'll write this up on foxbusiness.com. we'll see all his statements. here is what we know as of right now. goldman is sending representatives to that conference. neil: wow. >> these are representatives from the riyadh and u.a.e. offices. they are going as right now. that may change by the end of the day because they, we reported this and they will get, they will get embarrassed, people will look at david solomon's comments in context of incredibly misleading statements that he made. but they are going despite the fact that he told cnbc, he tried to tell cnbc no one was going. fascinating thing he was so adamant about it, the wire services, "the new york times" and everybody is now reported that today, nobody is going from

goldman sachs. that is how adamant he was. that is not the case. neil: what about all these other firms? are there -- i can understand the ceo or cfo not going. >> they are being less duplicitous. what they are saying, what officials at morgan stanley, at citigroup, at jpmorgan, what they're saying is, they are likely to send representatives at this can conference, to the conference. they will make a final decision today. two firms, black sown and blackrock say, nobody is going. so they're being completely up front saying nobody is going. blackstone run by steve schwarzman, blackrock run by larry fink with significant business interests there. so why is goldman playing this game we're not going to go but we'll send people? guess what. saudi royal family do a lot of money and investing. next career they will have probably the one of the biggest ipos in history of ipos, ipo saudi aramco.

they desperately want to be part of that ipo. that is why david saloman is willing to go on tv, no senior executives this is is horrible. calling up saudi arabia don't worry about it, we'll send representatives there, we'll have our guys at the conference, despite the fact that journalist was murdered, probably by one of your people. that is what is going on. i don't mind the fact that companies are playing this safe. neil: right. >> just don't get on your high horse, which is what solomon did. go back to look at cnbc interview. the interviewer was not smart enough to parse through his language. he kept saying dean no powell, former trump administration official, no senior executive, mate it clear, no senior. neil: anywhere in the region considered senior executives? >> you can orwellian, they're not senior, they're not from new york, they're from the region. that is essentially what he is doing. this all may change today, when

people start writing about they're going, because they will get embarrassed. i doubt it will. they so desperately want to be part of this ipo. neil: you do not want to be the odd person out. >> the ipo will be huge. what is looking their rival, morgan stanley looks to have a leg up on them. that is the talk. neil: let me ask you about, what if the end result, i was talking to a former state department official who was earlier saying obviously they will do something, saudis will respond to the u.s. pressure, or we'll have some pound of flesh being demanded here, but in the end if the crown prince stays, he doesn't go anywhere, we can't control that kind of issue, i understand that, if he stays, no matter what punishments we exact, and father says look, i know i have 12 other sons, he is the one i picked to run the kingdom, he will continue to run the kingdom, wayinged my finger at him, told him don't ever do

this whatever, is that enough to appease people? >> what is saudi arabia doing ipo for their sovereign wealth fund, don't they have a lot of oil? there is something known as fracking in the u.s. neil: very different position than the '70s. >> we don't need them anymore. given technology and electric vehicles, all the technology, they need to diversify their economy more than we need them. from an economic standpoint we can exert a lot of pressure. we can't dictate change around the world. neil: right. >> what we can say from a economic standpoint if we don't need you that much we can screw you. i think that's what they're facing particularly in congress. i can't tell you about the trump administration. president donald trump puts out mixed messages with the country. he aligning the country with saudi arabia as opposed to iran. one of the fascinating things i read from doing this story, look what saudi arabia does vis-a-vis sponsoring terrorist activities and sort of not, bad players

across the world and look what tehran does, iranians, ain't that much different. saudi arabia has financed isis an, i mean there is a lot of bad stuff going on in this region and if we're going to pick side, we're going to pick them as our i guess proxy in the middle east, they have to live by some rules because they don't have the type of stroke, economically anymore. that is why they're doing that ipo. neil: there were separate reports that king salman is very, very worried about the royal family itself. >> right. neil: issues come up periodically with civil unrest and the like, they have a tenuous pick as a group on power. >> they have a tenuous group on power. i'm not saying iranians great regime. we all know what they do. neil: absolutely. >> america has 65%, 65% approval rating from average iranians. it is a very secular society, aside from the nuts that run it. we don't have that type of

positioning inside of saudi arabia. just so you know. neil: very interesting. charlie, thank you very much. to that point we're trying to effort more on this president warned, could be very, very imminent here, severe consequences for the saudis. we don't know what they are. maybe there is some fear in the markets that they will be more sweeping than earlier thought. we can't demand that the crown prince go but we can put some economic heft behind this by either saying we'll put out outa contract or force other deals that are pending to be shelved. that would hurt us as well. but growing talk that the administration is not just going to give lip service, what do they mean by severe consequences. i don't know if that it true but that is the rumor out there. might be weighing on stocks. we'll have more after this. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront.

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neil: normally things getting volatile in the middle east one of the biggest oil players in the middle east, you would see prices spiking. oil is contained, 70 bucks a barrel. you see that happening to the brittish and americanized versions of oil. that they have not really gone up on any of this, in any large degree.

so what's behind that? and of course a lot depend on the punishments the trump administration might be meting out here and the response. council foreign relations energy program, amy myers jaffee. what is going on here? that seems to be counterintuitive, doesn't it? >> it seems counterintuitive. we had many things happen simultaneously, there were reports iran has been able to ship a much higher amount of its crude oil to china. some of it going into strategic storage. that gave the market that circumstances are looser than expected. everyone was thinking iranian oil was off the market. i think the market is underevaluating the problem with saudi arabia and what ramifications might be long term. saudi arabia played the balancer

role, when markets get overheated saudi arabia would interscreen. the president has been on top of that we've seen him tweeting at opec. tweeting at saudi arabia. trying to get more and more oil out of saudi arabia for adjusting the market and holding prices down. this whole flap over the khashoggi affair calls that into question when we saw some vague statements from the saudi government, then a very explicit op-ed in a government-controlled news source, revisiting the whole question whether oil could be used in a retaliating way. neil: do you think it would? we'll not be satisfied if the crown prince will stay in power and he just might, the reaction the trump administration didn't do enough because we fear such a countermove by the saudis, what do you think? >> i think the saudis really miscalculated in that regard. i harken back to thinking about

putin in 2006, when the ukraine lost their natural gas supply for less than 24 hours, everybody said there was no impact. well the impact was the psychological impact that caused different countries to respond with new receiving terminals for gas and renewable energy. so now i think saudi arabia faces this hefty consequence. once you unsheathed weapon or didn't really mean it or words spoken in rhetoric it created a new atmosphere now, can we count on the saudis? neil: very interesting. ann myers, thank you very much. amy myers i should say. oil up nominally so. not as much as you would think, apparently the markets are estimating what amy sort of mapped out. more after a this. vo: old and even inaccurate search results can

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neil: all right. continuing to follow this market closely on the 31st anniversary of the '87 stock market crash. whatever it is about october, it scares people. it's not technically the worst month of the year for stocks. that belongs to september. but of course, our most noted market hiccups, you know, disruptions, whatever you want to call it, have occurred in this month and we have certainly seen enough of them already. we are a little more than halfway through. to our market watchers. alan, from your vantage point, this market is certainly living up to october lore.

what is it about this month? >> i just think it's the last quarter of the year, people are getting, you know, concerned about how the year's going to finish out, maybe. i don't know. '87 that was my first year of college so i didn't feel the impact like some of the guys over my shoulder did, but the markets came right back. let's talk about where we are. stocks have stabilized, we are positive on the week on the s&p and the dow and looking at volatility, if you want to talk about fear, volatility is below the $20 pivot which is the move we saw from 11 up to 29. it's pretty important right now, but if we're looking at things from a factual standpoint, you made a great point that september is really the shake-out. october just has a certain amount of nervousness going into the winter, i guess. neil: there's always concern, i'm reminding a lot of folks, you remind them as well and you guys certainly know your stuff, bull markets don't die of old age but they can certainly be,

you know, assassinated by other developments. i'm wondering, if some of the other wild card issues like saudi arabia, like china, you know, maybe italy and its budget going kaplooey, any of that could disrupt all of this. what do you think? >> of course, it can't be stressed enough the october correlation is entirely coincidental. you go back to 1929, it was in october of 1929 that investors got word that president hoover would sign the smoot-hawley tariff, a major tax on trade. markets didn't wait for the signing, they corrected right there. in 1987, 31 years ago, james baker gets on tv on october 18th and talks about he wants a much weaker dollar. naturally that led to a correction simply because investors are buying future dollars. a weaker dollar will reduce their returns. this month, lots of jawboning

about china, talk that the administration is going to limit foreign investment in 27 different sectors in the united states. you want to spook investors, have intervention in the investment process. these are surprises that led to corrections. it's not an october thing. we just seem to have surprises in this month. neil: you know [ inaudible ] the impact on the oil market particularly, where you are right now. it's fairly muted. there was a global panic building up because the saudis might pull oil from us, or pull oil, period. it's not evident. maybe this latest report that it's shipping a lot of it to china, i don't know what's behind it, but it is counter what you would think would be happening, isn't it? >> right. it's another example of the markets not reflecting what you would expect. so right now, looking at crude, it traded between $65 and $70 for about four to six months, then broke out and went to $75. we come back to that 70 point.

not any positive reaction but i think it's reflecting this pause in the macro market. to get back to china very quickly, it's another variable. if we look at the big picture, 2016-2017, china's stock market went essentially straight up about 80% so this pull-back we're seeing now in the last three months, we are down 15% in china, is just a little bit of a correction of that overheated move. i don't think there's been that much damage on china and at some point, it's going to find some value if you look at some of the large cap china stocks as far as that opportunity goes. neil: you know, john tammy, maybe it's a cliche to say markets over time richly reward you. we were showing earlier, i was covering the '87 market crash, if you would have stuck that out you would have survived, you would have withstood the 9/11 issue, you would have withstood the asian market crisis, the

russian ruble crisis, even post the financial meltdown, you would have survived all of that had you just stuck to it. so what do you tell investors? your time frame is crucial but what do you say? >> what you tell investors is that the only constant about the united states is that we constantly progress. if you've got beautiful memories of the 1980s or '90s, if you went back to them right now, it would drive you nuts how primitive we lived back then relative to the present. we keep getting better, so you can't let little mistakes, little errors in the near term cloud your vision that over time, americans are incredibly productive and because they are, the stock markets that reflect the productivity will continue to grow with hiccups in between. neil: alan, is it your sense, you talk to fellow investors and the people on whom you invest on their behalf, there's more skittishness now, more want to

get out now. i only say that because for some, that could be a bullish indicator. what are you hearing? >> it can be. when the masses get nervous usually you see the markets reverse. what i saw yesterday was a financial flush-out, not quite the move i wanted to see where it had a sharp decline, you know. we have seen it rebound and come back so if we can see the s&p above 2825, that's the halfway point from this drop from the top it will shake out the shorts and make another move higher. one thing i want to point out, 70% of the time, rising rates correlate with rising stocks. so if you look at the last 60 years, there's been 13 periods of rising rates and nine of those times, the stock market moved up. so let's also remember that where we're coming from in the last years, the ten-year note made that extreme low in 2016 and we can both agree the stock market's gone straight up as rates have risen. i know that's a concern but the market sometimes says otherwise. neil: yeah, but i wonder if that

math holds to what you had before, was a rise of the floor, the rise of the rates, you know what i mean? >> past performance is not indicative of future results. i'm not concerned about the rising rates at this point, until we get above 4% and people have a choice between putting money in the stock market and getting a healthy yield in the ten-year note. neil: gentlemen, thank you very, very much. let's go to francesca chambers, the "daily mail" white house correspondent. much of the political world is hanging on what we do in response to saudi arabia, and growing indications it had at least some role in the death of jamal khashoggi. what are you hearing? reporter: the white house and u.s. officials are not ready to go that far yet, but there is a report out today saying that secretary of treasury steve mnuchin could go to saudi arabia for the investment conference that begins on october 23rd. he previously said that he would not go to that conference on twitter, after a conversation with the president and secretary

of state mike pompeo, but now there seems to be some confusion as to whether or not he will go, and meanwhile, mike pompeo saying that he hasn't heard any sort of an audiotape of the alleged killing of jamal khashoggi after a report today said that he had either heard it or had potentially seen a transcript. neil: you know, that is interesting, this turkish tape, there's a video and audio, we're told. as far as i know, you would know better than i, no one else has had access to that, which does make me question its credibility, but it seems like maybe others might have been apprised of it but that worries me. that's what everyone is hanging this on. reporter: and turkey said today that they haven't shown the video or an audiotape to any country, including the united states -- neil: wouldn't it be good of them to do that to remove all doubt on this and to move forward on this? reporter: turkey says today they

will show the evidence that they have of the alleged murder to the world, and the world will see it at the same time as the united states. now, here's again the main question. not just the october 23rd investment conference. secretary of state mike pompeo told the president yesterday that he believes the saudis deserve a few more days to finish conducting their investigation, and that was on thursday. so today is friday. so this is something that could resolve itself potentially over the weekend, but with that october 23rd date coming up shortly, a few more days is all really that turkey and saudi arabia have to produce this investigation and the evidence. neil: wouldn't that be like a watergate burglar's investigating himself on the break-in in democratic headquarters in 1972? in other words, we are relying on the saudis to investigate themselves. right? is there anyone else verifying this? reporter: turkey is also conducting an investigation -- neil: turkey is sometimes

actually, until this came about, less reliable and more of a butcher, if you think about it, than the saudis ever were or are under president erdogan. just seems we are putting our eggs in a questionable basket. reporter: that's part of the reason why president trump sent secretary of state mike pompeo to both saudi arabia and turkey earlier this week. what mike pompeo knows, however, he's being very quiet about it at the white house yesterday. he took a couple questions from reporters but didn't and hasn't wanted to say what evidence he's seen or what conversation he might have had even as there were reports that he told the saudi crown prince that they better 'fess up if they had did involvement because the evidence will come out anyway. neil: when the president says it looks like khashoggi is dead, i'm paraphrasing on this, and that severe consequences are coming for the saudis, pompeo must have relayed something that went beyond just the transcript

of a report allegedly tied to a video or audio recording of an alleged killing. he had to have been going on something. we don't know what that was or is, right? reporter: immediately after that conversation, the treasury secretary said that he wouldn't go to the conference anymore. he had been under pressure to do that for days. so the question is exactly as you say, what exactly happened in that conversation that would have flipped the switch in the white house to begin backing away from saudi arabia. neil: all right. great reporting, as always. thank you. "daily mail" white house correspondent outside the white house. all right. couple of things we're following. interest rates have been contained, oil, which has been contained, stocks, which have kind of been contained and defense stocks, which have really been contained. that is the market's collective way of saying we move on. do we? a once-in-five hundred year storm

should happen every five hundred years, right? fact is, there have been twenty-six in the last decade. allstate is adapting. with drones to assess home damage sooner. and if a flying object damages your car, you can snap a photo and get your claim processed in hours, not days. plus, allstate can pay your claim in minutes. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands?

neil: mixed defense stocks today but over the course of the last week as this whole khashoggi issue began to mushroom, they have had a rough time here. the idea being we are so beholden to the saudis, if you throw everything in over the last few years, we are talking upwards of half a trillion dollars worth of bookings and dealings and you know, arrangements that we have with the saudis and all these defense giants have with them, that to all of a sudden shelve that or pull that away is a concern for them. to peter brooks. i always use, you use the facts and the international expertise that makes you great at what you do. i'm a selfish money guy that looks at how the markets play it. those guys and those defense

stocks are a good proxy about where they think this is going, and they don't think this is going to be too damaging to saudi arabia or their deals. what do you think? >> well, we'll see. we have a political crisis here. we've got a personal tragedy. i think the investigations have to play themselves out, then the administration will look at their options and take action. i think current contracts are probably not going to be touched. remember, this is just not u.s. this is the canadians also selling things to the saudis, the europeans are selling euro fighter which is big. saudis buy american and european aircraft so there's things here. current contracts are going to be fine. the future, we will have to see. congress can play a role here, neil. congress has been concerned for a long time about saudi involvement in yemen and our support of their efforts there. there was something in the national defense authorization act last year that the president signed about the state department having to certify that the saudis are looking for

a way to ease -- find peace there and ease the tremendous humanitarian situation there. so the administration will take some actions, then of course congress has a say as well. we'll have to see where this goes and what we find out from these investigations. i don't think a knee-jerk reaction at this point is appropriate. neil: it is weird, though, when you think about it, that there was no moral outrage over what's been happening in yemen, the deaths of all those thousands of yemenis, most resistant to the kingdom. but this one journalist, i'm not minimizing his position or role, cruel way in which he apparently died, and whether they were behind it, but it's a mixed message, is it not? >> well, you know, i guess it depends on who you're listening to, neil. there have been people talking out about both of these things. you're right, yemen may be underplayed. it is actually an important interest of the united states'. i wouldn't say it's vital national interest but if you look at what's going on there, the iranians are using a proxy force to try to gain control of the country. yemen is a strategically located

country, if you look at the suez canal, arabian sea, the gulf. this is part of iran's expansionism. it's also part of what's happening in syria, because iranian involvement there and you have seen the news broken by fox news about the shipment of weapons to hezbollah and lebanon by iran. saudi arabia is an important partner of the united states and has been for a long time, especially when you talk about gulf security and you know as a money guy about oil and other things, and then there's the defense sales. this is a very complicated relationship and it's important the administration look at all of these important aspects as it tries to protect and advance american interests in light of this tragedy. neil: i know there's a lot of preaching back and forth here but i'm old enough to remember when we abandoned the shah of iran who was certainly not st. joseph. he was not a nice guy. but we learned afterwards the guy who followed him was less of a nice guy, and alienated us in the region. a very tense relationship that,

to your point, exists to this day. i'm just hastening to add with a look to history, we should be careful what we wish for, right? >> yeah, of course. we have to. that's why i think it's important that these three investigations play out. i think some people think they know what they are going to get from the saudis about this. the turks, there is all sorts of rumor out there, they have not given -- maybe they have given something to us officially that we don't know about, but they have -- neil: you believe this tape exists, by the way? the video and audio tape? >> i don't know if it exists. it's possible the turks had the saudi embassy bugged as an intelligence project. neil: no one else has seen it or maybe they are just denying they haven't seen it. something like that would have gotten out by now. >> it's possible. they are probably being cautious. maybe they want to share it with the united states first. the united states can do its own investigation. the white house, the president has already condemned this. secretary of treasury mnuchin is not going to davos in the desert, the economic conference

in riyadh next week. i think we have to play these sort of things out and find out what's going on before we make some concrete decisions that will affect a very important relationship that's political, economic and security related. neil: if it maintains itself, in other words, whatever happens, whatever punishment is meted out but the crown prince stays, how will that be taken? >> i don't think the crown prince is going anywhere, neil. i heard you say that in an earlier segment. i don't think he's going anywhere. there should be accountability, though. there are many ways of deriving accountability for these acts that are alleged. neil: that's very interesting. peter brooks, thank you very, very much. >> thank you. neil: heritage foundation senior fellow. you know, timing is everything when it comes to a market sell-off. this one of course, the craziness of it today notwithstanding, we don't know how things will end up, it's one thing if it's in a midterm election like this one is. 31 years ago, today, it was a year before the presidential

election and wasn't vice president bush at the time very happy for that, because it could have been a very different election. and a local approach with a focus on customized insights. so you and your company are ready for today. a moment of joy. a source of inspiration. an act of kindness. an old friend. a new beginning. some welcome relief... or a cause for celebration. ♪ what's inside? ♪ [laughter] possibilities.

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all the other things i told you about the economy, as solid

as i've told you, so no, i have no more knowledge of why it took place than you have. neil: that was ronald reagan after the 1987 stock market crash. i remember covering that. i was younger and had a far better toupee. one of the things that calmed the markets after that, we fell better than 500 points, at the time that represented almost a quarter of the dow's value, you could see where we have climbed back since that time, punctuated by big sell-offs we got in '89 up through the asian financial crisis, the russian ruble crisis, certainly 9/11, all the way up to the financial meltdown ten years ago. but besides the punctuations i wanted to illustrate this for you because to ronald reagan's point, the markets come back, the overall american economy is sound. it's confidence in the fundamenta fundamentals, at the time, 31 years ago or going forward, that

was the message he was conveying and in large part, that helped rally buyers back to that market. i should point out within four months, we were back to those old highs. the former senior adviser to ronald reagan joins us now, ed rollins. good to see you. >> nice to be with you, thank you. neil: he played a very underappreciated role at that time, keeping everyone calm, putting it in perspective, not going nuts, not pointing fingers. >> he knew a lot more about economics than most people ever gave him credit for. his friends were all big business leaders before he became president. i think to a certain extent, he had a very calming influence and he basically always felt presidents got more credit than they deserved and more blame on the economic issues, but confidence in the economy is very, very important. he always tried to go out and project confidence, convince people they needed to stay in the game and he did that very, very well. neil: you know, he had this parano paranoia, his treasury secretary, later on chief of staff, do not be talking about

the stock market. i know he made an appear anance the floor but he was loathe to attach too much to it because stocks go up, stocks go down. they still went up a lot more in his eight years than any other president. but i am wondering why did he do that? >> he didn't sit every day and watch like don regan did. don regan -- neil: former merrill lynch ceo. >> he sat there every day and looked at the stock market all day long. reagan didn't. reagan did a lot of other things and stepped in when he needed to step in. he had good sound economic advisers all the way through. i think to a certain extent, don regan may not have been a good chief of staff, but at the end of the day, there were other people who were there that knew the economy well, knew what -- neil: regan told him hey, you should be trumpeting this more, because he didn't. >> he didn't at all. don's attitude was i'll make the decisions. he and i used to fight tooth and nail all the time, because i

said to him i just ran the campaign in 50 states, i didn't see your name on the ballot anywhere. this is a president who will make decisions, you bring him the correct options. don regan kind of blustered his way through and obviously didn't work out well. neil: the reason i mentioned it, you own it on the way up, you own it on the way down. the criticism of this president is he quite properly is proud of the market running up to the degree it has but has pointed fingers at the federal reserve and anyone but himself at the run down. >> i think the run down is not going to be serious. i think there's a lot of orders out there. you talk to business leaders all the time and they are very confident that this thing is going to continue to move forward for a period of time. i think he just needs to keep talking about that. the problem is he's not talking about this. every day it's something else and not through his fault, necessarily, but it takes great discipline to stay on message for a week or two or month, even, and what i would argue the next 18 days, he ought to be talking about the economy and the good things that are happening, why are they happening. neil: he does at these rallies,

but he tweets out a horseface comment. first of all, i can never picture ronald reagan doing that, but look, he is who -- >> he is who he is, right. neil: leave it at that. but is it your sense that he's got something to worry about here? whether it's the saudi thing, escalating with china, italy falling out of bed, europe falling out of bed, that he could have a global crisis? >> he could easily have a global crisis because the world is very uncertain. obviously if it turns out the saudi arabians murdered this man in their embassy, you've got to do something. congress is going to do something. that's not what we stand for. we don't stand for those kind of things. we stand for freedom of the press, we stand for individuals' rights. i think to a certain extent, again, if it turns out they killed and tortured him before they killed him, and it will come out soon, i'm sure, the president has to do something. has to slap them down. can't change who the king picks as replacement but can certainly put pressure on to play nice. neil: will everything be nice,

assuming the crown prince doesn't go anywhere? mohammed bin salman is still there and his father doesn't remove him. there are always going to be people not satisfied with that. >> i think that's true. the saudis have to understand they need us a lot more than we need them. we are getting very much energy-free and i think to a certain extent, they have to -- if they do all the things he wants to do, the saudi prince, he needs american support. neil: you know, is it your sense, i'm already thinking 2020 and some of the prominent democrats, democratic front-runners including california senator kamala harris are advocating wiping out the president's tax cuts, giving that money to the poor. her plan among others, i think elizabeth warren backs this, the $6,000 annual -- $5,000 a month to the poor, how much of a winning strategy would that be?

>> i would worry about ronald reagan's 49 state victory, the only modern president since nixon to win 49 states. if they do that, they take that tax money and give it to the poor, they will lose and lose big-time. neil: now, it seems to be an early sign that the passion on the left is to go hard left and i'm wondering if that's your sense, too, and that could help the president. >> i think it definitely helps the president. i certainly don't hope this happens but if for some reason the democrats take back the house and pelosi and all the democrats we have seen in action the past several weeks, the president needs to pound on them every single day. that would help as long as we hold the senate, still get confirmations through and whathave you. i think the reality is trying to make congress as divided -- i think that works to his advantage, not his disadvantage. neil: if i can go real quickly back to this saudi situation and whether there is a video or audio tape the turks have said

there is and virtually every major newspaper, news organization has gone back to quoting of this alleged tape, the president saying secretary of state mike pompeo, this is a tweet from the president, was never given or shown a transcript or video of the saudi consulate event, fake news. i don't know whether he's referring to the story that he was or whether the tape actually exists, but it did make me wonder whether, if we got it wrong, there is no such tape and we are all quoting something as accepted fact and jumping beyond that to take action. that worries me, too. >> i would argue the president and news media are basically, ought to wait and see what happens. they have said -- the turks have said they will release the documents shortly. if they do, and there are documents -- neil: wouldn't that have been the opportunity, when pompeo was in the room? >> i think it was, but they may be checking out more things.

neil: doesn't that make you wonder whether -- >> i always have wonder about either the turks or the saudis. i basically always am a little guarded about dealing with either one of them. even though they are our allies, they are not always the best of allies. neil: that's not a great duo. ed rollins, thank you very much. >> my pleasure. thank you. neil: of course, former reagan campaign manager, fox news contributor. again, if the president is seizing on information that purportedly comes from a tape, presumably from the turks, he's saying it's not happening. you don't know who to believe here. the president of the united states saying it's fake news. after this.

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live from the floor of the new york stock exchange, i'm gerri willis. with today's existing home sales report for september, not good news. the worst report since november of 2015. here's what's going on. month to month, august to september, existing home sales, not new home sales, existing home sales fell 3.4%. you heard me right.

they fell year over year, that number is down 4.1%. that means an annualized run rate of 5.15 million homes expected to be sold over the course of the year if it continues at this pace. properties staying on the market longer, 32 days versus 29. what's going on? well, we are seeing rising rates in the marketplace. mortgage rates at 4.85%. this is actually down from last week. we reported mortgage rates of 5%. i spoke with the chief economist at the national association of realtors. he says this. i would attribute the numbers to rising interest rates. there are fewer buyers, inventory is rising and price appreciation much lower. i asked lawrence what is the tipping point for this market, when does it really go lower. he said if interest rates were to go through 6% that will be a very negative sign for the market. he said most of the trouble's in the western region so if you are looking at washington, at

california, oregon, even, those markets slowing down. prices have run up too far, too fast. inventory rising and buyers kind of going away here because they are worried about the higher interest rates. colorado, texas, florida, these were markets that were super-heated, now, well, they're stable. not great news for the markets there. as i go, i just want to mention the s&p 500 moved below its 200 day moving average, something to keep an eye on there, now at 2777. that level, 200 day moving average is 2786 so we are seeing some change there as well. neil? back to you. neil: thank you very much, gerri willis. lot of people say in the end it all comes down to you, the consumer, the shopper, what you do in the days ahead, what you do this holiday season. let's get a read on that and what you are telling us. the former jcpenney ceo.

what do you think of that? people are backing away from buying homes, existing or new, that there might be a retrenchment going on. do you buy that? >> i actually think we probably are having a pretty good month in october. we did not have a good august. i think it got better in september. listening to amex numbers that came out, that sounds like people are out shopping so that's good news. neil: american express, right? >> american express, yeah. i think that is a good indicator. i do think there's a positive attitude. i think there's a lot of uncertainty in the market as it relates to the stock market because of what's going on in the tariffs and also, waiting to see what's going to happen on the election, and i certainly think that's causing people to have a little hesitation. but i believe the consumer, we have a great economy in the united states. it's probably the only great economy out there. so i think that some of the things that have happened in the last couple years have really

made the customer feel a lot better about herself and what the future is. so i really believe there's a much better attitude than sometimes you hear in the press with the customer. neil: good for you. when you were running jc penney, you had to look at a lot of data points and you were on every single store and operation. what did you pay more attention to? what did you follow? in other words, if there was a housing downdraft, did you ever look at that and say hm, that could happen to us? >> well, housing downdraft is sympt symptomatic of interest rates going up and higher prices on homes. one has to be concerned with the tariffs that prices at the retail will start to go up. it doesn't always affect you early on, but sooner or later when you get 3%, 4%, 5%, 6% increases which will be caused by some of the tariff changes, that's going to affect how customers buy. i think that is the thing we are

always concerned -- i always think most importantly, how are my sales doing, because that tells me what's going on with my customer, but how are my competitors doing. if my sales are down and they are doing well, that means i'm doing things wrong. if we are all starting to soften, that means there's a consumer withdrawal and i think that's our concern. we have to stimulate -- i think you got a lot of reports coming out next week on earnings, i think it will all be generally very, very good but the question is what's going to be in the future and the uncertainty is going to take two or three weeks before the election and we have to see if we can come to resolution on this tariff thing, but the tariffs will affect the prices. certainly i think affecting the prices of cars. i think it's going to certainly affect other things, home prices are certainly going to be, because people are bumped up, the prices but interest rates, if they go up, you will have to see people take markdowns on existing homes. neil: you know, a lot of companies have already cited those tariffs and the trade tension. walmart chief among them, saying

prices go up it's going to hit us in the holidays. i'm wondering whether that's just a pre-excuse, grab something early and say if things don't work out, we warned you. what do you think? >> well, i think that walmart and anybody has to try to tell you what they think the future's going to be, they will work towards making that more positive. nobody wants to say you will be 10 and then you get six. i think it's true. walmart has a lot of imports, as most retailers do today, and i think that is not something i think they want. this is like weather. there's always something that can cause something. if you see a slowdown, most of it, if it's broad-based, not if it's one store, but if it's broad-based it's because the customer is reacting to some of these factors. neil: all right. have a great weekend. thank you very, very much. >> always nice to see you, neil. neil: former jc penney chairman. all right. almost 1.5 billion, that's what

is up for grabs in the megamillions and powerball combined lotteries. after this.

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neil: all right.

the campaign is on, if you haven't noticed. we are about two and a half weeks away. the president has been busy on the campaign trail. next up, arizona. hillary vaughn is live for us in phoenix. reporter: we are right outside of phoenix news bank, where kristen sinema will make a pit stop before she heads to two campaign events later today. we talked to her opponent, the fellow arizona congressman martha mcsally who tells me she thinks her opponent should not be running at all, because of comments sinema made in 2003 where she said she didn't care if someone joined the taliban. >> why would any american say that it's okay for an american to join the taliban? i don't understand it. she's so out of step with arizona and american values. the fact that she even said it should be disqualifying. the fact that now it's been unearthed, she refused to accept it and refused to apologize for it shows she shouldn't be in the u.s. senate.

reporter: sinema declined our several requests for an interview to talk about that and other topics like immigration that is a flash point in this election. 31% of voters in arizona are hispanic and that number continues to grow. last night, the president said this election is going to be the election of the caravan and mcsally telling me yesterday it's time for mexico to step up and stop being complicit. mcsally said that even democrats in arizona she talks to want the border to be secured. mcsally says her opponent is pretending to be a moderate but tells me her views are actually quote, dangerous. >> she's extremely scripted, because she doesn't have a good record and she's trying to just say all the right things to get enough republicans and independents to vote for her and it's just unfortunate. i wouldn't call her a friend. reporter: today, mcsally is welcoming two presidents to the state. president trump will be hosting a rally this evening in mesa, arizona and former president

george w. bush is here now hosting a closed door fund-raiser with mcsally. she tells me yesterday the wide range of people that are coming out to stump for her on the campaign trail shows her appeal to all types of conservatives. neil? neil: hillary vaughn, thank you very, very much. in the meantime we are following developments with this record jackpot offering, the megamillions and powerball jackpots together are close to $1.5 billion so far. daniel, there are a couple areas, some people are paying hundreds of dollars to get their hands on multiple tickets to improve their chances of winning, and there are others who one ticket, that's all i need, i'll take my chances. the old line is someone's going to win this thing but some people can go a little crazy. >> absolutely. look, neil, everybody starts thinking about it's a dollar and a dream, right? you got to be in it to win it, all these things. you know what's interesting, at the beginning of the day today, the megamillions was about at

$900 million. now we have broken $1 billion so what's happening? people are getting emotional. i know i can win this thing, i got to be in it, but the truth of the matter is, your chances of winning this are about 300 million to one. so if you put that in a little bit of context, that's about one person in the entire country. if you really want to think big, neil, and you want to put the megamillions and the powerball together and you plan on winning both for a billion and a half, in order to do that, your chances are about one in 88 quadrillion. that's an 88 with 15 zeros after it. but hey, you never know. neil: you never know. you never know. there was one guest earlier on the network, talking about that, well, i had a $2 investment, if you win the thing you have already, you know, reversed those odds. i guess it's in the eyes of the beholder. a lot of people are very worried about the tax impact. stuart varney, our mutual friend, is very cheap, as you

know, and he's against it because the government takes so much. he's right, especially if you get the money up front and you are in new york city, what you pay. half of it goes away. he's right about that. i just think it's money you wouldn't have had if you didn't. leaving that aside, how would you advise people who a lot of times want to retain anonymity because friends come out of the woodwork, and how they invest it? >> it's not easy, neil, to stay anonymous in this process. the reason for that, there's only about six states in the country that allow you to claim your prize anonymously. it's a matter of public record in the rest of the country. so what are you supposed to do? well, the thing is, as soon as you win, if you're lucky enough to be that person, you don't have to come forth that day. really, the plan needs to start where you get an attorney and dare i say, an accountant and i know somebody, to really advise you and guide you through the process. neil, this is a really big deal

if you're coming into that kind of money. very, very few people really know what to do even after taxes, if you win $1 billion you will be somewhere around $400 million. i know that's not a lot to you, neil, but for a lot of us, that's a lot of money. neil: a lot of people waste that money, right? i always say that anyone, any income range, who spends more than they make, they are going to lose it, whether you are making $10,000, $100,000, $1 million, even $1 billion. mike tyson went through a $1 billion fight fortune, you know, and it seemed unfathomable. how do you advise anyone with any amount of money about strategy, spending strategy, what's your quick rules of thumb? >> well, quick rules of thumb, first thing, let's keep in mind that 70% of lottery winners end up broke. so you want to make sure you're in that other 30% to start with. again, you got to get the right

advisers to start the process. then what you need to do is talk about how you are going to claim that money. one tool you may want to use, for example, is a trust, which can help you at many different levels as far as protecting the funds against creditors and also, it's a tax play related to estate taxes. then the other thing, the first thing you want to do with your money, too, is get all your debts paid off. that's really the best investment that you can make. then from there, you take a deep breath and you start with really conservative investments. you don't want to go crazy and start going into high risk investments and everybody's got a friend who could really double your money in no time. it really takes some discipline here, and the way you develop that discipline is to have the right advisers telling you and guiding you how to handle the process. neil: real quickly, worried about this market? the volatility of late?

>> neil, i'm sorry, i didn't hear you. neil: are you worried about how volatile the market has been lately? i apologize. >> yeah, listen, the market being volatile, it seems like there are crises in saudi arabia driving that and we are going to be coming to a conclusion, i think, in short order as to what's going to happen there. and most importantly, how the president and congress are going to react. we'll have to see. neil: all right, buddy, thank you very, very much. good read of things. accountant also by trade. he knows of what he speaks. see that's funny, i thought you traded options. i'm not really a wall street guy. what's the hesitation? eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. test test. . .

neil: all right. up about 100 points on the dow. waiting to hear the response from the administration, saudis what they're cooking up. charles payne to take you through all of that hey, charles. charles: hey, neil. goo evening, this is "making money with charles payne". we're on pace for the first up week for the last four but first we want to start with china, showing more signs of cracks in its fragile economy today. china posted its slowest pace of growth in nearly a decade. the third quarter gdp say it was up 6.5% from a year ago, but that fell short of market expectations. shanghai composite remains in a tailspin. 50% off the last three years, 25% this year alone.