they should change columbus day to canadian thanksgiving. stuart: thank you for being on the show. good stuff. liz, ash, happy thanksgiving. to all of our viewers, we hope you have a wonderful day. enjoy it, please. our time's up. connell mcshane in for neil today. connell: you are something else. i know the show ends there. happy thanksgiving. enjoy that table. welcome, everybody. i'm connell mcshane, filling in for neil once again. we have a lot to talk about over the next couple of hours. we will stay on the news with the stock rebound that we've seen. think about it, we have a two-day, 947-point plunge in the dow, so we were due for a little bit of a rebound and are seeing that today. oil prices, tech stocks are bouncing back a bit. we do have some signs coming out we will talk about that maybe the fed will proceed with a december rate hike but questions

about what they might do after that. so let's get into everything. "wall street journal" wealth adviser reporter veronica daggert is here today. from "bulls & bears" david asman is here as well as market analyst bobby rivell. welcome, one and all. listen, on a thanksgiving wednesday, it's i guess good news to come in and be thankful we won't be at varney's table. what a lunatic. the market has bounced back a little bit but i don't know if we read much into that. >> it's been a little bit of a reprieve. volumes are light so it's hard to read too much into anything today but it's been a reprieve for investors who felt like they had nowhere to go. there's been a broad selloff and you feel like the traditional safe havens just weren't there. that said, the overhangs in the market are still around, this trade stat is a big concern for a lot of people. that's the biggest thing on investors' minds right now. of course, the fed, too. we will see, december looks like it's on track. we'll see after that. connell: let's talk about that. the day-to-day market stuff, we

could get into it but i think from a broader picture, it's probably more appropriate and veronica brings up the fed and brings up trade, so that brings up this question. kind of a debate now, where are we in the economic cycle, how worried are you about a slowdown? because that would tell us what you think the fed might do. >> i think there are a lot of reasons to be paying attention. we did get some interesting economic data today about the consumer, about the housing market, and those are things we need to be paying attention to, but at the same time, veronica made a really good point that trade is really going to be i think at the heart of the discussion as we get into 2019. we will be watching the g20. i think it will be a pause. i think we will get a stall and we don't know how it will play out in the markets. connell: from the trade sense. >> yeah. i don't think there's going to be any solid deal happening. connell: right. we are always worried about -- >> but consumers will start to feel this. connell: what do you think, david? >> i think the world has already felt it.

the "wall street journal" lead editorial today is about whether the market contraction, what we are seeing this week, the 900 points so far contraction in the market this week is a result of a trade contraction. world trade has slowed down markedly in the past year, so it's not just a trade spat. it's not just talk about what might happen. it's what is happening right now. it's not all because of what's happening between the u.s. and china. a lot of it is because of what britain is going through in terms of their separation with europe which is a very messy thing that we all know about. it's because some of those countries in europe are really slowing down and endangering the entire european union, like what's happening in italy. germany itself is slowing down. all this is leading to a worldwide contraction in trade and that has a lot to do with the contraction on wall street. if the world is trading much less than it used to, that means less money is being created. net-net, there's less money in the world being created, there are less goods being created. that leads to a whole slowdown.

we got to get the trade moving again. connell: i know the president wants to talk a lot about the fed. we can talk about that in a second. i wonder, i will start with you, david, whether he gets what you're talking about because that would play into whether or not he wants to cut some sort of a deal or at least make it look like he's cutting a deal at this g20. >> i think he absolutely gets it. now, he has very clear ideas about china and the fact that it is the responsibility of the united states, nobody else is going to step up to bat and take a swing at china, because even though everybody knows that what they have been doing for decades is wrong, they have been violating agreements they have signed on to, everybody's tied into them economically. this is the first time any country, let alone the biggest economy in the world, has taken them on. nevertheless, he's a businessman, he's an international businessman. nobody understands better than somebody who has dealt internationally in business like he does what is happening now, and i think he really does want to deal. i know peter navarro has been talking really tough on the chinese in ways that might make

people, including the markets, think there's not going to be a deal. i think there is going to be some kind of a deal, because the president, certainly larry kudlow and other advisers, mnuchin and other advisers for the president, know we have to get trade moving again. we don't want to let china get away with what they have been getting away with, but we've got to get trade moving again, or we're going to have a worldwide recession. connell: lot of people talk about what the threshold is for pain from the chinese point of view. in other words, their economy is slowing down, their stock market has gone down, so will they come to the table and cut a deal. we also have to think about our threshold for pain. who do you think makes the right move if we are going to get some sort of deal out of this? >> i think absolutely we do need an answer to that, because we are already -- could feel pain already. we are already seeing goods getting held up at u.s. ports because companies, individuals are fighting over who's going to pay the tariff on what. we know that u.s. consumers like cheap goods from other countries. a trade is basically a tax so if

you got higher taxed goods, that's going to hurt directly the u.s. consumer. they won't be able to afford as much and that's going to hurt into their overall financial situation. so it's not a trade war, it isn't good for anyone. connell: the idea they are easy to win versus nobody wins in the trade war. you guys weigh in on this. this is going to be looked back upon, i know retrospect is tough as we get through it, for a mistake for the president to engage in this whole back and forth to really become the first one to really go after china, even if they deserved it? >> this has been such an ongoing issue. we are still hearing about the problems with intellectual property and what that means to our economy, and the damage that that can do. so addressing it is just part of what needs to be done. the question is how it evolves. that, we don't know. connell: maybe the better question is the way it's been addressed. i always wonder because we ask guests all the time, if not tariffs, then what? i haven't had a lot of great answers to that. >> remember, the president has been -- he forged his views on

what china has been doing and how they have been abusing agreements for decades, he forged that view long ago. connell: japan in the '80s. >> exactly. this is deep within his nature to be against those countries that take advantage of the united states. nevertheless, he is, as i mentioned, an international businessman, does recognize that if trade flows slow down as much as they already have in 2018, going back to january of 2018, it causes tremendous problems, not only for our economy, but not only for the markets, but for the whole worldwide economy. so to answer your -- the question you put to bobby, it will be a mistake if he takes it too far. it will be -- connell: what's too far? >> too far is where you get into a real trade war. connell: i always wondered whether we have those new tariffs that come on, they go from 10% to 25%, that increase by $250 billion -- >> that's why i think we are going to see a stall. i would be very careful.

>> that's where i think we will see an agreement before january. connell: an actual agreement? >> i think there will be something that will release the trade flows that have been stuck, that have been handcuffed for the past several months. connell: anybody have a view on the fed? >> i was going to say, i think you are talking about a mistake, it's a mistake, we are seeing this with the president, potentially to stake your presidency on the performance of the stock market. he talks a lot about mr. market and we know mr. market is very volatile, very twitchy, especially when there's a lot of uncertainty when it comes to trade. so when the market is doing well, it's great to talk about the market. connell: because he was elected, there's no question -- >> well, tax reform can only take you so far, right? so we're already seeing some of that phase out. if you are going into 2020 and your stock market's not doing so hot, it's a dangerous proposition. >> you asked about the fed. i think the president is right

here in going at it maybe not the right way, we always question about his communication standards and whether he's doing it the right way, but the basic point, the fed, everybody says we got to get the fed back to normal. i was saying that, we had zero interest rates for too long but the fed is getting back to normal. the fed is allowing a lot of the bonds that were coming due to phase out. there's $50 billion a month in their huge portfolio they are now getting rid of. it's not just a matter of raising rates. they can also release their portfolio a little more quickly without necessarily raising rates so there are other tools that the fed has at its disposal. i think it's a little too narrowly focused right now on raising rates. >> the only weird kind of catch-22, i have been saying this throughout the week that's odd on the fed, is the way you would get the federal reserve to really slow down is to put those tariffs into place and hammer the chinese. you know, we're talking about the idea of not having a trade war. well, if you do have an all-out trade war, then the fed slows down. i don't know what we wish for.

kind of a weird situation for markets and for the economy, too. >> i think to david's point, we wish for resolution, and not to have these 25% tariffs. that's what we wish for. whether it's stalling or finding an actual deal, we wish for not having these tariffs. >> then the fed keeps raising rates, i think. david says -- >> there's another problem with the fed, with jerome powell. i think he believes a little too much in this overheating period. there's nothing wrong with a strong economy. there's nothing wrong with people's wages going up. nothing wrong at all, this whole notion that it's bad for the economy to go too strong was negated by what happened in the '80s when reagan's economy grew by 7.3% in 1984. then every other year, by at least 3.5% if not over 4%. connell: what about the idea of having bullets in the gun we keep hearing about so when we have a problem, you can then, you know, decrease rates again? >> that's exactly the point. the thing is, if you go too quick, then you have less fire power to back down on that.

unprecedented territory. >> that whole idea, though, that you have to hurt the economy by raising rates so that you'll have higher rates so that you can help the economy -- that's nonsense. >> but you don't want to overheat, either. >> i don't believe there's anything wrong with overheating. i think that a -- >> really? >> you can grow 7% as we saw in the '80s and still have inflation coming down. that's what happened. i don't want to get too in the weeds. the phillips curve. the point is, i think a strong economy and rising wages are a good thing. it doesn't necessarily, shouldn't be a trigger for the fed to raise rates. connell: don't be afraid to tell him he's crazy. i can see it in your facial expression. >> no, i will be the neutral party between david and veronica. growth is of course very good but i do agree with veronica, we want the fed to have tools. that is important. that was a concern when we had rates that were practically

zero. i think there is a happy medium here. i will be the neutral. >> happy thanksgiving, everybody. connell: by the way, we have just proven don't talk about monetary policy at the thanksgiving table, either. right? >> wow, it's really cold out. >> stick to the weather. connell: guys, thank you very much. appreciate it. we will move on to mark zuckerberg in a moment. that was an interesting interview he gave. i don't know if he made a lot of news but he says i'm not stepping down as chairman, not going anywhere, and i'm sticking behind sheryl sandberg. well, what is next for facebook and is change really needed at the company? that's ahead. i am a family man.

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saudi arabia, if we broke with them, i think your oil prices would go through the roof. i've kept them down. they've helped me keep them down. right now we have low oil prices or relatively, i would like to see it go down even lower. connell: all right. there's your thanksgiving message from the president. thankful for saudi arabia, apparently, even with all these reports that the cia is condemning the crown prince, saying he was the one who gave the order to kill jamal khashoggi. the price of oil is up two bucks today. edward lawrence at the white house with more on all of this. edward? reporter: yeah, connell, the president started a firestorm

with members of his own party as well as democrats when he's supporting saudi arabia, even this morning sending out a tweet supporting saudi arabia, thanking them for the oil prices. he says quote in that tweet, oil prices getting lower, great. like a big tax cut for america and the world. enjoy. $54 was just $82. thank you, saudi arabia but let's go lower. now, the white house trying to make this an economic issue that benefits the american people, brushing over the fact that there are reports out there saying that the crown prince possibly ordered the killing of jamal khashoggi. senator bob corker says that starting with the statement yesterday, he's shocked. >> we have a crown prince that i believe directed the killing of a journalist, and i just, the language that was used, it was as if they were writing a press release for saudi arabia, not for the united states. reporter: senator bob corker and

senator bob menendez, the chairman and ranking member of the senate foreign relations committee, sent the president a second global magnitsky accountability or human rights accountability letter, saying it's his duty to find out if the crown prince is involved, to put sanctions on him. senator menendez tweeting out yesterday, saying that when we stand up for democracy and human rights, we are putting america first. senator rand paul, who is also on the foreign relations committee, saying i'm pretty sure this statement is saudi arabia first, not america first. now, under the act the president now has 120 days to report back to congress to see if he would put sanctions on this. now, if he does not report back or does not put those sanctions on, congress has the option to do that for him. back to you. connell: edward lawrence at the white house today. let's talk more about oil now. you see the price of crude oil since its recent highs down by 27%, even with today's

bounce-back. i talked about the price, i talked about consumers, all of that, but i will start with the most difficult question first. as someone in the oil business, as an analyst, are you okay as an american with the way the president has handled this situation with saudi arabia, essentially saying lower oil prices, economics are more important than the murder of this "washington post" columnist, jamal khashoggi? >> well, personally, i think that the u.s. should take a moral stand, you know, when we're seeing journalists that are being murdered. i mean, from the president's view, he's a very transactional type of guy so as a result he looks at this in dollars and cents and lower oil prices benefit the consumers, and he's taking credit for it. connell: what is the transactional advantage here? because now we have to see what saudi arabia does, what opec does. is the president putting pressure on them not to cut production, do you think? >> well, i think he's tried to put pressure on them, but i do think that the saudis are going to look at their self-interest

and decide that oil prices are too low to sustain their domestic budget and they want to take action at this upcoming december 6th meeting to have opec and opec producers cut production by about 1.4 million barrels a day. remember, the saudis need higher prices if they're going to be buying u.s. arms. connell: right. so they cut, in your view, they cut production, then what? what happens to prices after that? >> well, i think prices will drift on up. remember, they have come off about 25% from their highs in early october, but keep in mind that the u.s. is now producing at a record level of 11.7 million barrels a day. russian oil production is at its post-soviet era high, and you combine that with a recovery of oil production in libya and nigeria that opec and non-opec producers have a lot of work to do in order to move prices up substantially. connell: okay. so prices won't go up that much. that's obviously good news for consumers. you watch these gas prices.

it's something else. you can get below two bucks in some spots, i was seeing. but the average around the country, $2.60 today versus $2.67 last week. it continues to come down. how low can we go there? >> well, i'm expecting that by the end of november, the national average will be $2.50 a gallon and it might drop a few more pennies as we get into december. but if you were to go fill up your car in missouri, you would be able to pay $1.93 at a lot of the big box retailers, and we have a number of stations that are below $2 a gallon in oklahoma and texas. connell: the president called on the tax cut, we heard that argument before, and it is, it's more money in your pocket, maybe offset by higher natural gas prices depending how people heat their homes. but is that always true, the economic advantage of lower gas prices? is there a point where oil falls to a certain level where it's not economically advantageous and if so, are we at that point or close to it, or it's still good news?

>> well, it's definitely still good news for the consumer but it's bad news if you are in texas, oklahoma, kansas, colorado, which are dependent on oil production, you know, for jobs and for the state's wellbeing. there, it's a difficult situation. if you were to look up in canada, where canadian oil is selling at a significant discount, some barrels of canadian oil are less than $20 a barrel, the province of alberta has a significant economic problem. connell: so we asked about the saudis need to keep prices at a certain level. what about us? where's a fair level where it's good for consumers and good for producers, above $50, say, or a little bit higher? >> i think it's a little bit higher. i think between $60 and $70 a barrel. the consumers can certainly, you know, tolerate that type of a level. it translates into a gasoline price probably around $2.70 to $2.80 a gallon. but you do have a significant amount of countries around the world that are dependent on these higher prices to run their

budgets and actually, to do trade with the u.s. the dollars have to come from somewhere. connell: true. good analysis, as always. thank you, andy. have a happy thanksgiving. thanks for coming on. >> thank you, connell. connell: online shopping. none of these companies have popped. almost $32 billion was spent so far this month online. we will talk about shopping and whether a strong black friday will ease some investor fears we saw earlier in the week. more on that coming up. we will follow this market as well into the close. join us "after the bell" to see how we wrap it up. we are up 138 on the dow. at fidelity, our online u.s. equity trades are just $4.95. so no matter what you trade, or where you trade, you'll only pay $4.95. fidelity. open an account today. starts with a december to remember

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so you are not stepping down as chairman? >> that's not the plan.

>> that's not the plan. would anything change that? >> i mean, eventually over time. i'm not going to be doing this forever. but i certainly, i'm not currently thinking that that makes sense. connell: all right. that was mark zuckerberg refusing to stand down as facebook chairman or saying he has any plans to. he also stood by sheryl sandberg, his c.o.o., who has been taking some heat for the issues that facebook has been having. charlie gasparino here on that and more. i don't know if anybody expected him to say he would step down as chairman. >> by the way, the record of having to split chairman and ceo is pretty mixed. connell: doesn't solve everything. >> ken lay was chairman of enron. you know what happened next. jamie dimon is chairman and ceo of jpmorgan. if you look at it, it's a pretty well-run back. jack welsh was chairman and ceo of g.e., it was a well-run

machine. connell: this doesn't seem well-run, at least right now. >> i don't think that changes it. there are other structural things. they will come under a lot of heat from democrats and republicans. republicans don't like them because they think they are too liberal. democrats don't like them from the notion of privacy and that irks a lot of constituents, plus the russian stuff, you know. democrats believe russia used social media and facebook in particular to elect donald trump through fake stories and fake photo drives and things of that nature. that's the sort of vortex they're in. i don't think changing the ceo and splitting up his job will do anything to that. i mean, i think what we have -- i think what we have to have is really a national conversation to the extent, how pernicious is their privacy problems. i don't think it's that bad. i don't care if i get food ads pop up. connell: but that depends on your own personal point of view. >> i'm just saying, how pernicious really was the russian threat? i still think if hillary clinton campaigned in those blue states, those purple states that turned

red during the election -- connell: that may be true. >> michigan and pennsylvania -- connell: wisconsin. >> wisconsin, she probably would have won. connell: that may be true. >> i think there needs to be some rational thought about this and you know, changing that is not going to change that dynamic, by the way. because a lot of this is still baked in but we shall see. connell: stocks bouncing a little today along with apple. talk about being overdue. speaking of bounces, we have seen that in oil prices. president trump tweeted on oil this morning before hitting the golf course saying oil prices are getting lower, great, like a big tax cut for america and the world, enjoy. since $54 was just $82. then he says thank you to saudi arabia but let's go lower. that's after yesterday's statement that we talked about. >> this is such an amazing story, i think, because it definitely combines the political international politics with the markets, because the markets, talk to any trader out

there, the markets are now trading off of oil. that's kind of a big thing. where it goes, if it goes up, it's better, theoretically, because the economy is getting better. if it goes down, it's an indication it's not. trump did something -- the president did something interesting yesterday. basically exonerated mbs for the murder which we know he's tied to of the journalist khashoggi. connell: right. >> he did it on the grounds of we have a good business relationship with saudi arabia, including potentially lower oil prices but also selling them arms. it seems like a crass way to conduct international affairs. connell: one thing about it, sometimes we have to read between the lines to figure out that something like that happened. in this case, we didn't. he came out and said it. he said the economic relationship we have is essentially more important. >> this morning he doubled down on that statement, saying it would lead to lower oil prices. you just had a guest on who understands the oil markets and says they will cut production and send oil prices up. think about it. president trump basically said it's all right to kill a

journalist and the sachludis ar saying we are still going to cut prices. connell: we don't know what they're going to do yet. >> excuse me, cut production. connell: we don't know if they're cutting production. andy's point is they probably will. >> they have to. it's in their economic interest. connell: there was no response this time around. >> i can't believe the president actually tied, you know, the sort of culpability of someone for murder which we know occurred and we know it had connections to the crown prince, that directly to an economic business issue because you always look bad when you do that and they can always renege on a promise, particularly when it comes to oil production, particularly at a time when their economy needs higher prices. it's really dumb. he kind of got himself into this. i don't know how you extract yourself from it. and you know, if you look at why republicans lost the midterms, part of it was suburban people, suburban educated people and when they hear stuff like this, particularly suburban women who are nominally republican, they

say he just tied a cut in gas prices of three cents, maybe, to some guy's murder. connell: he's betting on the fact that, you know, that the lower oil prices or lower gas prices is -- >> the only way to get lower prices is frack. connell: we have to go. oil prices can't be too low for that to keep working, either. talking to a guy the other day -- >> financing it. connell: they need prices probably in the mid 40s, the guy was telling me, to make it make sense. that's another part of this. thank you, charlie. talk to you again. in a moment, signs the housing market may be faltering a bit. we had rising rates as a big story. we will talk about the effect of that as we continue here. by the way, tomorrow is thanksgiving. happy thanksgiving, everybody. we are live on friday here at fox business. open for business. we are here. i'm going to be here. >> i hope somebody else is here.

i'll be watching.

connell: wild weather indeed. we talked about oil, we have for the last few. natural gas prices are interesting. they have been up about 2.5% today. the record cold expected this thanksgiving is another issue. when you look at those natural gas prices, 40% higher this month. let's bring in our meteorologist, adam klotz to the fox weather center. it's to be freezing in some spots tomorrow, right? reporter: yeah, the upper midwest and the northeast. places in the middle of the country will be fantastic weather but there is a huge cold blast, everything you are looking at, this is portions of canada but it's settling down into the country. not so much today, but overnight tonight and then into thanksgiving, we are going to get an arctic blast and possibly some places getting record low

temperatures. your forecasted highs for today, notice especially along the coast how they drop from running 47 degrees, 45 degrees, 41 degrees, up into boston. these are tomorrow's daytime highs. this is the warmest it's going to get all thanksgiving, 29 degrees, 26 degrees in new york city, 22 degrees in boston. actually, if you are in some inland communities, temperatures fall down into the teens. that's frigid air really taking hold. it does bounce back a little into friday and the weekend. that's the actual temperature. it will be very breezy as we get into tomorrow, also. that's when you start to get the feels-like temperature. i will put this into motion. this is a future forecast. you see the bottom just really drops out. before you know it, negative one in boston, six degrees, that's the feels-like temperature in new york city. feels like 19 in d.c. then you run inland a little bit, plenty of spots in the negative. 13 degrees back in detroit. very cold air is going to be settling in. we have the parade, macy's day parade for tomorrow, the coldest we have seen there for central

park on a thanksgiving thursday, 26 degrees. actually, the coldest is 22. 26 degrees is the second coldest. we are forecasted to match that for tomorrow. it is going to be a frigid one before eventually we warm up a little bit. but yeah, cold, cold, cold is going to be the story here in the northeast. connell: crazy. the place to watch the parade is here, sixth avenue. juf you can just look out the window. adam, thanks. now, as we transition to housing, existing home sales, we have those figures come in. it went up in october, which was interesting, because we had six straight months of declines. mortgage refinance applications have gone down, big-time. it hit an 18-year low and very interesting comments from national association of realtors today calling on the fed to slow things down when it comes to rate hikes. let's put it all together and talk about this environment with senior economic analyst mark hamrick, national housing conference ceo david dworkin.

thanks for joining us. mark, i did find the fed comment interesting from the national association of realtors, hey, jerome powell, slow things down. what do you think of that? what would it do to the housing market if he did? >> i would love to see a $1,000 check tucked inside my turkey tomorrow as well, but i wouldn't bet on that. of course, that's on the wish list for the housing industry, that this rise in both interest rates and home prices could somehow cool, but we did see in that existing home sales data the median sales price was not quite as hot as before, but whether it's the president sort of imploring jerome powell and company to cool it on rates or others throughout the business sector, i think we will have to get into that december meeting and see what fomc officials really think. there is a case for slowing or pausing but i don't think that's the predominant case, certainly not for the december meeting. connell: right. still a good chance at 70% plus they raise rates in december.

the question is what do they do next year, because then you look at we have mortgage rates up and where they go, whether it's significantly above 5% or not, what do you expect rates to do next year? >> well, housing prices and markets do taper off. i think when i'm landing an airplane i don't want to pester the pilot about how he's doing it because i want the landing to be soft. i'm hoping that's what happens with this housing market. i think rates are probably going to continue to go up a little bit, and we're certainly seeing a flattening in the housing markets, but especially when you look year over year. connell: what about that landing? >> you factor in the population it's much worse. connell: you are saying the landing, though, can be smooth? >> you want it as smooth as it can be. i certainly think that's the fed's aim, but we want to also be aware that there are other factors that are impacting housing affordability and we have to pay attention to those as well. connell: all right.

let's talk about some of those factors. mark, what's the most important thing outside of interest rates that we should be watching here? >> well, obviously home prices. so we start to see a lessening of the seemingly unrelenting 5% plus rise in home prices year over year that we've seen for a number of years now, that would help. but let's think about the strength of the macro economy to the extent that one of the most often cited complaints about the economy in recent years has been the lack of more substantial wage gains. if we get better wage gains, that makes up for some of this housing affordability problem that we've squeezed ourselves into here. connell: it's always a balance. we are starting to see that a little, people are making a little more money. we were talking earlier in the hour about how much we should be rooting for. i assume in your business, you are rooting for that, more of that, right? >> we certainly want higher wage gains, but there's been a significant lack of supply, and that's one of the things that's been driving housing prices, so we have seen an increase in housing prices but it's pretty

inconsistent and if it's driven by a lack of supply, then that's problematic, especially in the move-up market, where people are just getting out from under water and having 20% equity in your house is better than being under water, but it's not enough to move up, and buy something new. and that's what we've seen in the property markets. connell: as a final kind of point from both of you, and mark, you can take this first, where do you think the economy is in its cycle, because this week we have had more and more conversations with people saying all right, recession's a real possibility end of 2019, beginning of 2020 or something like that. should we even be talking about recession, or are you with larry kudlow in that we can't see it, it's so far away? >> well, larry's a good man. i think you just have to look at sort of where a number of trend lines are pointed to the extent that you begin to lose fiscal stimulus in 2020 from the tax legislation and you have essentially, if the fed stays on track, interest rates basically

become penalizing at that point so i think you have to circle 2020 and say you know, that's a year to watch. connell: what do you think, david? >> i think recessions happen, and we haven't ended the economic cycle. i think it's important that the fed be allowed to bring us in for a soft landing so we can have a smooth takeoff and come out of whatever slump we're in and not crash. connell: when you say allowed, what do you mean? >> well, i think there's been a lot of challenges from the white house on fed independence. it's very important that we keep the pilot's door locked. >> the president is entitled to have an opinion. i just don't want him to actually do anything with that opinion. connell: i get it. that's funny. mark and david, thanks to both of you for coming on. appreciate it. happy thanksgiving. >> thank you. connell: we will keep an eye on all of this. meantime, republicans seem like they want to rush and get a vote done on trade, not on china, which we talked about earlier, but on canada and mexico. the usmca, get it done before

the democrats take over the house. can that happen and how important is it that it does happen? that and more coming up next.

connell: what we now see is some republican senators apparently pushing for a mexico/canada

trade vote before the democrats take control of the house of representatives. we welcome in from the daily caller, editor in chief and from swan street strategies, erin mcpike. always good to see both of you. politico story was basically hey, they want to get out ahead of this and you know, have this vote. how important is it that they do, would the democrats really -- i guess they would come in and make changes to usmca, or try to? >> they may, but i think it's very unlikely that this vote will happen by the end of the year. if you look at the reality, they have to fund the government as of december 7th and they are also trying to get a vote here on the farm bill. so i think there's just too much on the plate of congress. the other thing is that the international trade commission has a report that will be coming out about the economic impact of this agreement and that's not due out until sometime in mid-march. you are going to see a lot of members of congress wanting to stall until that report comes out. connell: all right. could give some fuel, that's a very good point, by the way, to their arguments one side or the other. i also always wonder which side the president is better off

siding with on trade if he wants to enact his agenda. is he more philosophically aligned with democrats than with some in his own party and how much that plays into it? >> it's quite an indictment of american politics right now that the expectation is nothing will get done in the new congress because democrats control the house. i think the sad reality is that that's kind of true, there isn't much to expected to be getting done in the next two years as they look to take trump out of office. the president should use the lame duck effectively. think back to 2010, democrats lose control of the house and repeal don't ask, don't tell, pass a missile reduction treaty, new s.t.a.r.t. with russia, the 9/11 health bill. they were productive. republicans have i think a mandate at this point to be productive in the lame duck session. connell: they have basically too much on their plate, and worry about the government shutting down and all that kind of thing. you don't think so, vince? >> i mean, i think -- i do think it's a lot to do, but i also think americans are going to look at this and say really, you have two things to do and you're saying that's a lot? how about focus on some other

things, too, including this criminal justice reform bill they would like to pass, the farm bill, naturally, and also getting this trade deal in front of congress. it can't hurt for the white house to attempt to send that deal over. connell: criminal justice should be bipartisan. you would think it would be something they could do with a new congress. to vince's point, maybe there isn't much they can do in the new congress because trade, also the democrats are aligned with the president and now we have to just see if they are just going to block for the sake of blocking, right? >> yeah. look, i do think that trade will become a major issue in 2019 as we have seen. it was a big issue in the midwest in the midterm elections and i think it will be a big issue in the presidential election in 2020. but i think that there is room to get something done there in the new congress, absolutely, which is why i think that this particular vote will not happen until sometime in the new congress, and i think there's plenty of room to actually get something done on that as well. i think you're right, i think criminal justice reform could be a bipartisan issue that does see some work done in 2019. connell: one would think. let me ask you about what this new congress looks like and who

leads it. we have so many stories leading up to the election, then after, about the so-called never nancy movement and how nancy pelosi might not end up being the speaker of the house after all. however, vince, one after the other, in the latest to break this morning, democratic congressman brian higgins from buffalo, who had signed an anti-pelosi letter, he's the latest to back her for speaker. so the democrats are lining up behind nancy pelosi. she's going to be speaker, right? >> yeah, i think she will. and the reason for this, this is best explained as these are all for trade. the people who are opposing her are doing it as power brokers for their own interests. it's not about principle. in the end, in higgins' case, he traded for medicare for all commitment. marsha fudge traded for access and power to the agenda. each of these democrats as they made their stance, they said i won't support nancy pelosi for these reasons but as soon as you pay up, then like okay, maybe i can support you. connell: one giant "house of cards" episode.

brings up the question about whether that comes back to bite some of these democratic members in their own districts when they run -- >> oh, absolutely. connell: -- for re-election in a couple years. >> seth moulton, the congressman from massachusetts who won in a primary a couple years ago to take over that seat of his in massachusetts, look at what has happened to him because of his opposition to nancy pelosi. he was at one point looking at a presidential run. he was also looking at maybe challenging ed markey for that senate seat in massachusetts. now he maybe primaried himself in his own congressional district. i think you will see a lot of other democrats who opposed nancy pelosi in the past saying i don't know what happened to seth moulton to happen to me. i think she scared off him and other democrats from opposing her. connell: i was talking about it the other way around. you bring up a good point. but some of the connor lambs of the world, people who ran in districts where they basically had to support her, if they choose to fall in line this time, will they pay the price

next time in those districts with a republican running against them. are there opportunities, vince, for republicans if that's the case? >> i mean, possibly. it's going to be interesting to see how long nancy pelosi's cutthroat strangle hold on her own party is going to work because i think at some point, the appetite for the party to get even more progressive than nancy pelosi will allow is going to overtake the party. how many weeks can we go before alexandria ocasio-cortez is being booked on liberal news networks and being the more radical agenda of the party and even nancy pelosi isn't willing to go that far. connell: it's amazing how much she finds herself in the news for someone who hasn't set foot in congress. every day there's something somewhere about ocasio-cortez who is going to be a first-term congresswoman from queens, new york, and won't have any standing on any of these committees but i guess stands for something bigger and both sides can go after her. >> yeah. that's right. i think she's done an effective job at using her twitter account and we know from president

donald trump that that is something that can work. she figured it out and she's done a pretty good job at marketing herself. i will have to say that. connell: between that and your instagram stories, you can go a long way in this world. thank you, erin and vince. have a happy thanksgiving, the two of you. we appreciate it. as we continue here looking ahead past thanksgiving to the black friday shopping day, more optimism in the markets for that? we get a little bounce-back in the dow. we are overdue for one. higher by 175 points as we head into the 1:00 hour, eastern time. former hudsons bay company and toys "r" us ceo jerry storch will join us. insurance that won't replace the full value of your new car? you'd be better off throwing your money right into the harbor. i'm gonna regret that. with liberty mutual new car replacement, we'll replace the full value of your car. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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that's why charles schwab is proud to support more independent financial advisors and their clients than anyone else. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com .. stuart: covering the dow jones industrial average. that's what restarted this holiday shortened week. let's see how we ended and whether there is more trouble ahead. market watcher with this year as we start this hour appeared good to see both of you. we had to talk a lot last hour. stocks have bounced back and wonder if that's all if that's our theme, this overdue balance the market that we needed to see. when you make of it? >> it's a big relief to see it. let's keep in mind volumes are light, liquidity is not there today and people are just

bargain-hunting. the bottom line is we are on hold until next week when we hear from powell and cheech waimea. until that time were just a little bit overdone and a little bit of bounce back today. stuart: you could find all kinds of assets i would think that are on sale. it's just a question of do you have the stomach to buy than a hat of some of these uncertainties that lay ahead. what do you think? >> yeah, exactly through the big issue is that sad. we can look for bargains but that's not has to get a better policy here. i've been saying for months they need to stop raising rates. the other thing no one is talking about is we just had a target in october. the status can reduce their balance sheet by $50 billion a month. $150 billion a quarter coming out of the banking system and liquidity. i much in what the fed is doing and the other thing you've got to watch his credit spreads here. high yields of 60 days wider. still lower than average.

there can be important. >> welcome the credit spreads are signaling a slowdown in economic growth and potential recession. so the fed not to be worried about that. we are talking about economic growth expected to drop to two piney% in the fourth quarter. that is below where we ought to be. we have to be north of 3%. >> making the argument to the point we just made not only as we need a key stay away from there so i guess the entire stock market. but we are seeing a slowing in the economy and credit spreads are sending a signal, some sort of a warning signal in the fed should kind of keep those warnings. >> i hope that's right. you know, what we need is to say we are close to policy natural and not to october 3rd. however, on the other side of

things to be really fair when we have the hottest jobs market we've seen in history, it's hard to make a case for stopping where we are now because we aren't at policy neutral. stuart: is it for next year or is it to next year? that is the debate with rates going up, and how fast they're going up, right? yeah, exactly. right now the market is barely pricing and two rate hikes between now in the end of 2019. barely. the fed is still pricing in for. that's a big difference. keep in mind the retail investor who owns 10 to $12 trillion worth of mutual fund in ats can get 2.5% on six-month paper that continues. it's logical to why take the risk of a big drawdown. i can get 2.5% on the money market. dream to what your economic view? he talked about the signals and we got into that yesterday.

it's kind of this interesting in this economy is great not only now but will continue to be great. at the same time they shouldn't be raising rates, which the two seem to be somewhat in conflict. if you're saying the fed should slow down you must think the economy is also slowing down. >> i think the economy is great right now. it takes about six months for a fed rate hike to work his way through the system. these are the pastor just now hitting. you look at the housing market is certainly slowed. so those are the things you got to look at. this holiday season should be great. they have jobs you should be a great consumer market. right now we're in a good spot. that's what the markets are worried about. we'll have a a big slowdown in 2019. we are not going to kill the market and its economic growth.

i think the market can really pose a jump here. connell: trade here which we haven't talked about her something talked about or something become on of the chi 20 on trade. i don't think it's just monetary policy, is it? >> not at all. a lot of people are and are hoping that president xi and president trump walkaway holding hands with some type of framework in mind. on the other hand i'm not so sure the markets believe that to be true and we might be getting ahead of ourselves. this is something that complicated and might take a long time. however, the framework come in the initial is in place that will be a boom for the market. connell: the whole holding hands thing would completely break the internet. >> dance, guys. we appreciate it. we are talking about how great the consumerism a lot of that is true. almost $32 billion has been spent ahead of black friday. look at that number.

a successful black friday could could bring some optimism to investors. stocks have been getting hammered. here in the studio. good to see you. it is to these guys point great times now. we do know the future will hold, but let's start with the present. it will be a terrific holiday season by any measure. >> the facts or the can numerous theories wrong. i've been retail long time. the strongest consumer as seen in 10 or 20 years. calm sales for retailers are very strong. while the government reports on retail spending are very strong. there's no evidence that consumer slowdown at all. connell: we talk about separation or we try to answer the stock market not the economy and vice versa. this week if you're just looking at reading the paper are looking at her screen right now, these retailers are bouncing back today from in many cases big-time sellouts. you would think there are problems and maybe there are. maybe their problems in the

future. sometimes the market as a way of doing that. >> you say why did these retailers support these fantastic earnings and fantastic sales. it's just been unbelievable in all these reports. and yet their stocks go down. it could be that people are worried about next year and already priced in a forward into what they can do so with almost nothing they can do in order to satisfy. connell: you're never going to hit that target. you're doing great right now, but next year. >> other possibilities are the retail cost structures remains under significant pressure first by the movement for bricks and mortar to the e-commerce even in the same enterprise and make these on the internet. when target grows rapidly online and we saw that, for example in a valid concern. connell: is that something happening more so for a long time. >> at the long-term trend so

what not that these companies are going out of business. it's a thick copy amazon's model they do just as poorly in their profit margin on the bottom line from doing the business online. also we see wage pressure with move to the $15 an hour minimum wage. there is also this amorphous concern that somehow all the trade activity and tariffs are going to hurt retailers, but nobody spelled out the mechanisms by which that works and is good for some retailers that prices go up. connell: yes, the prices go up, but their costs don't. >> the question is can they pass those increases on to consumers and that has to do with the elasticity of demand for each one of these items. if there's no substitute in the prices go up at every retailer, consumers buy it anyway. they would actually make more money having a higher margin. connell: at some point this is the overall economy. >> you could do that eventually.

that inflation has been terrifically low for a very long time and retailers do a little better with moderate inflation because many of the cost components like rent and wages are a key on the upwards died were prices go up immediately. it may not be so bad, but people are still worried about that a little bit. there is that one retailers they mention that in the earnings report. for the retail industry. different than for the economy as a whole. connell: caterpillar, someone talking about it and understand why they're talking about it. for this industry would be a side effect. >> there's going to be a great black friday, great cybermonday said it perfectly, very long. and which you pray for is a retailer great consumer time. the numbers are going to be really strong for the holiday period. no one knows what's going to happen next year. the reports could issue for the

fourth quarter now and they're also strong with a look at the retail sector. connell: when you look at the retail sector and you talk to the ceo and you say toys "r" us is doing the best out of anybody because that would be in your interest understandably. when you look at the upside now at the landscape, would you admire? who's doing a very good job? >> you still have to have a very strong value proposition . i love retailers like costco was a retailers retailer who does very well. you'll see big gains sales very bet you. very good track record. wal-mart is trying a line in the sand. we are going to fight back. they've been doing an excellent job as well. kind of an iffy earnings report for the third quarter. the rest of the class act in the industry and doing a fantastic job of merging online and offline. there's a lot of people. t.j. maxx, rob stores, they

continue. t.j. maxx is worth more than target. think about that. connell: that is crazy. have a happy thanksgiving. thank you for coming in. you look at the black friday shoppers and think they're crazy. >> i think they're having the time of their life. connell: will be watching not. as we move on to talk about politics, president trump facing backlash is not from democrats good number of republicans has spoken out about the president's handling of the situation with saudi arabia and the crown prince mohammed bin salman. defense secretary has made them headlines. after he quit rate. we'll see you "after the bell" today. for p.m. eastern to see how this market closes up here former bush 43 chairmen will join us with the economic outlook going forward and everything else. we will be right back.

connell: we do have some breaking us in the secretary of defense james mattis making some comments we want to highlight

for you here. first of all he said he does not think the cia or the government of saudi arabia has fully established who was behind the killing of the saudi columnist jamal khashoggi. "washington post" columnist. those are among the comments now this is just made on this whole situation with saudi arabia following the statement said the president yesterday. former national security adviser to vice president dick cheney john hannah is our guest now. he also said, john, on the killing of jamal khashoggi that presidents do not often get the freedom to work with what he described as unblemished partners. that kind of thing is what james mattis has been saying. the first statement i said was that hasn't been established whether or not mbs, mohammed bin salman had ordered the killing. is that credible or do you look at his reports or knowledge of the region and other factors and say we know he was behind it. what is your take?

>> well, of course i haven't seen any of the intelligence on this, caramel, but from very early on once i heard about the people involved in this comment are very close relationships to mohammed and solomon himself, knowing how saudi arabia itself works under the leadership of mohammed bin salman who has been a real control freak, it's hard for me to believe this kind of premeditated action to kill khashoggi didn't occur without some knowledge of the crown prince. connell: so with that as the backdrop when secretary mattis comes out moments ago and says, for example, if you want and work and then you have to work with saudi arabia. so is there justification for the president's approach to this in your view? >> yes. i mean come in no question. the choice in the middle east isn't between good and bad. it really is between god and worse. and that's the choice we've had with saudi arabia in this administration in virtually every president before president

trump dating back to world war ii census partnership with the saudi started has had this very difficult choice of how do you manage balance your strategic interest on one hand with the fact you're dealing with a partner who shares almost none of your values and that's really the spot in the corner president trump is in here. we've got real strategic interests in yemen. the iranians are backing the group a chance at every major rally death to america, death to israel, and god curse the jews. as much as they want to and the war we can't do it at any cost that hands the keys to the southern arabian peninsula over to another hezbollah like movement. connell: so, if all that's right, one of things that turn people off more than anything else about the last couple of days is that the president's statement yesterday and his comments from the south lawn, there was many nuance to it.

he basically came out instead to follow follow up on what you're saying is is is more important. this economic relationship that we have, the strategic relationship we have, whereas maybe in the past we would have heard that kind of thing from past administrations, republican or democrat. maybe what's happening in front of the cameras would've happened behind the scenes. is there any importance to that in terms of how countries interacted with the ramifications of those interactions are? >> i actually do. i've got real problems with that statement. i think the president ended up pretty much more or less at the right place. i just think that this statement was all wrong. mohammed bin salman has been on a bad path long before this really shocking murder of khashoggi that really raises serious questions about his reliability as a partner for the united states. i much would've preferred the president to have a lot more anger and vinegar in that

statement rather than honey. connell: is very consequence, though? i'm sure he and administration officials that agree with him on this day that there is not. it's all about the economics as coldhearted as it might sound. is there a consequence even if you end up in a place where the two of you essentially agree that the process of how you got there? and if so, what is the consequence? >> the consequence is that mohammed bin salman has to know he's in the docket. we still haven't made a judgment about whether he's going to be a partner we can continue to work with and therefore if he wants to get the kind of u.s. restrained the president is getting right now he's has to very rapidly take concrete action to address very real concerns about his behavior and the masses that he's created in places like yemen, qatar and locking up these women's rights act to this, he's even been torturing and abusing recently.

connell: always good to see you. thank you for coming on today. so apple's biggest iphone supplier has reportedly had some major cost cuts. add that to the list of what we've heard about apple suppliers here over the last week or so. we will come back and talk about that. on the dow by the way. don't forget coast to coast friday the day after thanksgiving will be looking at some of these struggling tech stocks this week alone facebook, amazon and apple are down big time in apple's case 8%. un eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st.

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>> welcome back to cavuto coast to coast and gerri willis live in the word the new york stock exchange. the dow up 152 points. the s&p 500 up 22. that's three quarters of a

percent. up 97 points or 1.4%. what's going on here today is the bank stocks, doing better today. call it what you will. digging through the trash as one trader told me earlier today. let's take a look at facebook, apple and amazon. facebook ceo saying i'm not going to leave, not yet anyway. amazon higher. apple would turn into bear market for the first time yesterday up a quarter of a percent now right now. netflix, google and microsoft. trading lower here about three quarters of a percent as you can see you. trading at nine times the earnings might not be a good name for netflix today. google and microsoft doing as

well as you can see. in the meantime, taking thanksgiving, maybe we can get big selling our big dynasty come into the holiday season. pretty brutal. turnaround today. back to you. >> good to see you, jerry. i'll see you "after the bell." on the business alert right now talking about apple. the biggest iphone supplier has a plan to make some deep cost cuts are the latest issue to deal with. deirdre bolton to deal with it for us. >> this is fox gone. the biggest component supplier to apple basically just saying, it more or less mirrors what we've heard from other suppliers here last week there were three of note. while they didn't say it's because of apple.

so it just seems to be the demand for iphone slowing. even the company is trying to emphasize more on it services. itunes, creating more content internally. they want to use the services as much as hardware. connell: we joke is because of apple. it's all because of apple? many other suppliers of a customer but they also work with others. >> fox gone is the same and manufactures parts for sony playstation and some other big companies. they are not completely tied to apple, but it certainly big part of their business. connell: it could be a commentary on the economy. >> it does seem that apple and the earnings as it's going to stop producing are giving us these unit cost. it seems like internally there's a shift like don't look over

here. >> that was kind of -- maybe we should've realized it. that's a big deal. >> they said were not going to give the metric anymore because what we read between the lines as we don't want you to focus on not anymore. maybe we will have to give you that. >> they complained about that, too and the inference was okay they actually want to deemphasize iphone's. there was also some odd comments. the events of brooklyn and even one of their their executives have been said it's better for the environment if people don't buy iphone's all the time. the internal communication. that said, they were audibly preparing for his lower cycle. goldman sachs --

connell: i want talk about zuckerberg before you let us go. i'm cnn last night, it wasn't tremendously newsworthy i don't tank but he was asked to be going to be chairman. >> that's not the plan. we were together for 10 years. the colleagues at "the wall street journal." he feels like facebook hasn't been aggressive enough in dealing with challenges that have come out for the company, one of note. i know zuckerberg has said publicly he does wish the company had realized it quicker and acted on it quicker. connell: maybe he should have, too. he and samberg if you read "the new york times" kind of an exposé on that, you know, they claim they didn't know a lot of what's going on and it's about things they should've known. >> "the new york times" piece

that was published last week was really damning because they had a few different sources from lobbyist and former employees to permanent employees. also a lot of people leaving facebook. instagram founders, what's i've founders, that may offend the oculus one may have been for different reasons. there was a lot of potential friction with the way he handled his departure so that was part of the reason. connell: when the stock could speed up like this in a question about regulation coming next year, and we have to have a chairman for men like eric schmidt of google and be the adult in the room everybody says. that doesn't always solve things. sometimes a chairman and ceo is a good thing. sometimes it's a split situation. >> bill gates too many say considers a kind of mentor and bill gates did try, to your point, redefine what the ceo

does come with the german does, how different reporting structures. facebook almost lost his general counsel over that. that person was about to get demoted and now they seem to have sort of found them. long story short, i think it's difficult to your point where you have a sort of scrappy startup mentality go fast from a break things. but this is an adult company with 2 billion global users. third-quarter net income $5 billion. this is a serious must kill her company and they're just doing doing uncomfortable adolescent phase where this kind of gone from being this amazingly promising start. connell: by the way, totally different issue, too much of an adult company. >> that's true. thank you, good to see you. any moment, troubling signs to the economy. the tractor maker deere with

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connell: by the numbers is the numbers as the beast on thanksgiving when it comes to travel. 54 million people set to travel over this week and that number we are told the highest since 2005. hillary vaughn may be among them. reporter: k., connell, we haven't seen lines incredibly long, but they do have a backup line as customers get stressed. they have dogs on hand passengers can type if they are feeling overwhelmed by in a long waits in line. we are seeing air travel really spike this year. aaa expects for .27 million more people to take a flight this

year. that's up five points 4% from last year. including record numbers across the board since 2005 as you mentioned 54.3 million people expected to travel. overall this airport we haven't seen too many people stress out, but we have seen some employees rightly stressed by the influx of passengers they benefited right here greeting passengers and also helping employees as well. >> so the dogs are there. stressed out people can cut them. dogs there for security. >> these are not bomb sniffing dogs. they are people that help calm passengers down. they make sure once happy and everything goes smoothly. connell: i kind of like that i guess. >> it's very l.a. connell: yes it is.

thanks, hillary. we've been talking about oil a lot not only today, but all week and certainly well off the highs. that is a 27, almost 28% drop from the reason i peered gas prices are much lower than they've been. they continue to go down the regular unleaded gas to 60 on average now. this is what he does. he looks at these prices and make sense of them for us. rooting for even lower gas prices. we will see where this goes from here. why don't you just give us the 30,000-foot view. we've gone down a lot already. should we be greedier prices going down more? >> you can be a little bit greedy. you'll get more of a gas only price break because the wholesale price in most places retail by about half of that. it's interesting because people think that the gas stations lose money when the price drops.

it's actually the best time they ever have one wholesale prices drop, retailers stickier and that's what they're having right now. these are the lowest prices in 244 days. we are saving this month versus glass, but that kind of pales when you think about the trillion plus in their 401(k)s. >> that is for sure. the margins are really good right now. >> absolutely. they would take october, november and again and again and again. it's very, very profitable. this market take its major oil companies back and interested in buying retail properties. most of the time they supply it in bulk. >> we've been all over this story from both a political standpoint and an economic standpoint with saudi arabia and the way president trump has

handled the jamal khashoggi murder. basically saying the lower oil prices, and the lower oil prices are more important to him than what happened to this "washington post" columnist. the question for you is would have been nicer and saudi arabia's point of view? as they put pressure to not cut production where do you still is one of our guest says expect them to cut the production of oil in the not so distant future. >> i expect them to cut or let the december 6th meeting. i think though that some accommodation from kuwait, the united arab emirates. you might even see a rash of pitch and was sort of a demonstrative kind of 100,000 or 200,000 barrels a day. this is not an oil market that will remain cheap for a long, long time. when they meet december 6 i have

a hunch they will do enough to really fortify the market. there's actually a silver lining to that. when oil gets very, very cheaply become profligate and wasteful in the way we use it. an awful lot of u.s. companies suffer as a result. there is some magical number they are. it's not the $26 we saw a couple years ago. partly provoked a lot of fear. >> we were talking about, i understand that, we decide gas prices to go down as much as they possibly can. that comes to a place where people are filling up their cars every week and not make sense for them. the magic prices made excuse or something like that. >> it's probably very close to where we were for most of the year. probably 60, $70 or so. u.s. oil producers will ramp up like crazy. you are the largest oil producer right now. we are going to add to those

gains in the next couple years unless we spend a lot of time below $50 which i do not expect. connell: those are all important things to remember if they do cut production as tom says they will. thank you for coming on. have a happy thanksgiving. >> u2, connell. connell: tensions growing between the united states and china certainly. a cheap 20 meeting very, very soon and we will see what comes out of it if anything. the market seems to be may be expecting a little bit on the trade related stock this week. we are down 4% on boeing, 8% apple, three by 5% on capital. we'll be right back. meeting the increased demand for lithium, an estimated 800,000

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connell: breaking news from the chief justice of the united states john roberts has come out and he is running the judiciary he says that quote independent. this is a statement issued unusual from the chief justice. he says we do not have obama judges are trump judges in the bush judges are clinton judges. we have an extra in a group of dedicated judges doing their level best to get equal rights to those who appear before them. the independent judiciary something we should all be thankful for.

i superintend hemminger of "the wall street journal" editorial board member to talk about the wonder what prompted this. as we know, president trump took a shot at the ninth circuit which he hasn't been exactly getting along with on the west coast. now the chief justice said the united days i guess unprompted comes out with the statement. what you make of it? >> i think this is a pretty big deal. this is not just another or some politician or the chief justice of the united states has made the statement and comes after judges who he disagrees with. he's entitled to his opinions. yes he is. judiciary is the radically independent. i am not surprised that the chief justice has decided that he has two assert the independence of the judiciary because of these continued. >> people didn't be a on the south lawn.

it's a disgrace and i'm going to put in a complaint. that's what the president said. every case gets filed in the name circuit and it isn't necessarily true but they do end up with a lot of these cases that end up ruling against them. >> he's angry. this is the trump style. most presidents would've been more circumspect if they were going to address it. i disagree with the way they decide some of these decisions. we have a difference of opinion. i have my opinion. i'm the president. i have a job to do. that would have been fine. to say they are a disgrace puts it another category. >> the u.s. trade representative. the fair and unreasonable trade

practices. robert lighthizer, nobody knows for sure but she wonder whether they'll get any kind of a signal to the market and economic picture that we're making progress. i don't know. >> the markets it very much like to get a signal that the chinese president xi and trump are going to strike a deal, come to an accommodation on trade. again on the tarmac press conference they famously had yesterday, he said i've got $350 billion in tariffs that i am ready and willing to impose on china this january. connell: 10% to 25%. and if that happens, and the market participant is a big deal because you really ups the ante. it's only a skirmish or a spat. now were getting trade were. >> alexis of the ante got up this week. along with the trade deficit and

donald trumps economic metric is the stock market this week. the stock market gave up all of its gains for 2018. it must be getting a signal from somewhere. also the world trade organization reported that trade began to fall off in 2018 after rising in 2017. it's now on a downward slope. canary in the mine shaft. the market is sending signals to president trump coming you better settle this trade is because otherwise it becomes chronic and then it starts to suppress economic dignity. connell: the signal to jay powell the federal reserve chairman. he's willing to take the blame for the market over and over again. >> our earlier conversation. he now has this december rate

decision and i think there is a lot of discussion saying we're going to have to increase rates from president trump in a circumstance when probably they should not be increasing rate. connell: you don't think they should be hiking in december. >> they should forgo the hike in december because the dollar is strengthening. maybe the last thing we need right now is an interest rate hike. connell: fun times. happy thanksgiving. never a shortage of things to talk about. always good to see you. didn't hemminger from "the wall street journal." the cost of it on your waistline. this is coming up next. the great tony little on how to burn the whole thing off. it is coming up next.

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connell: all right. we saved the biggest economic stat of the day for right now. the cost of thanksgiving dinner. it's at its actual lowest point since 2010, the cost of thanksgiving dinner on average, $48.90. that's the good news. the not so good news is for your waistline. average americans expect to consume nearly 4500 calories tomorrow. 4500 calories tomorrow.

so tony little joins us now, the tv fitness personality. are you going to tell us that's a problem, tony, or is it just okay? come on, it's one day a year, we can just eat like, you know, we're going to the electric chair. >> i think you should accept it as carb day. it's thanksgiving, it's family, it's with your friends. it's one day. last year i was talking about your body's your temple. five days a week, treat it as a temple, two days a week, an amusement center. you have to have a break, you know? and so i don't think it's going to bother anybody. i don't think one day's going to do it. i do think that if you're a fitness person, you're a true fitness person, you get a little worried about it, then work out in the morning and -- connell: not many people do that. it's funny, not to brag about my own fitness, i did go to the gym this morning and there was nobody there. the guy says to me, he goes tomorrow it will be packed because people, he's like there will be people here 6:00 in the morning working out for three

hours just so they can eat like crazy. >> yeah. but you know what it is, it ends up being binge eating. a lot of people fast, fast all day long just so they can eat the big meal. i just say just enjoy it, just enjoy it. those calories are not going to make a difference on your body for one day. connell: let's enjoy tomorrow, we will all do that, eat everything that's on the plate, two, three portions and everything else, but then friday and saturday, we have to get back to quote, unquote, normal or if we haven't been eating well we have to do better. what's the tony little advice for people who are going to gorge tomorrow, what should they do friday, saturday, sunday, monday? >> well, they should get back on their routine, or they still can relax another day. so many people are stressed out, you know. it's a time to de-stress

yourself, get your mind together and everything like that and when you decide to go back to fitness or anything like that, it always makes you -- a workout always makes you feel better, right? eating better always makes you feel better. but there are holidays and we have to take advantage of them. connell: people have different views on this but you're right, if you work out it always makes you feel better, but if you don't eat well, it's almost like pointless to work out. so what's the balance in your view between what's more important, diet versus exercise? >> i can tell you as you get older, because i'm about 21 years older than you, most important thing you can do is keep your muscle up. because your muscle burns calories 24 hours a day, right, whereas in a workout you're just burning calories when you get there. so if you keep your muscle up and say you're burning 50 calories at rest, ten pounds of muscle that you add on, you are burning 250 calories sitting. connell: there you go. >> that's the key. connell: that allowed us to show

some of the coolest video we have showed of you in your prime. this is great. happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving to you as well. you can do it! connell: have fun. tony little. see you at 4:00 on "after the bell." we'll see how this market closes. we are up 180 as we speak. hope that was helpful, charles payne. charles: the part about keeping the muscle up, i might go home and bust out a couple of curls tonight. connell: right? i'm fired up by tony little. have a good show. charles: thanks, buddy. i'm charles payne. this is "making money." we got a ton coming up, including the market making a comeback after the two dismal days. we are now previewing what -- we want to do this hour, we want to go over what we can expect from wall street to main street and we know 2018 has been a year of growth, phenomenal year. we have seen jobs, manufacturing, corporate earnings, with main street only just now getting a piece of the action. the question is, can we keep