fading. every time that happens, at least this week has been an absolute catastrophe. even the nasdaq was higher and that's giving up. negative momentum is going into the last hour of trading. connell mcshane is in for neil. connell, starting to fall rapidly here. connell: thank you for giving me that. who has a sword, by the way, behind the desk, who is ready with a sword? charles: three swords. connell: all right. thank you, charles. have a good one. we will see what this market does here for what is the final hour of this shortened trading session. i'm connell mcshane filling in for neil. that's the way it goes on black friday, day after thanksgiving. you get a shortened trading session on wall street, get a little bit of volatility but that's the norm these days, to have a triple digit move on the dow. it's just about every day we see that. down 135 is where we are right now. now, oil is really probably the bigger story than stocks in many ways, and we'll talk about it, what it might mean for the economy. it is really sinking again. the oil price now down close to 50 bucks, $50.82 is the last

trade we have electronically in oil. so it's a supply story, yes, we talked about that a lot, but is it an economic story? we will talk about that this hour. we also have fresh trade tensions with china that weigh on investors on a daily basis. want to start off here talking about all of those as we welcome in from brandywine global portfolio manager jack mcintyre and also prosper trading academy ceo scott bauer. welcome to you both. jack, let me start with you. i want to start with oil, we can kind of get into what that means for the markets, for the economy, but this is really something else here. i think a lot of people thought maybe we would have found a bottom by this point but i don't know if there is one in oil. it keeps going down. what's the significance? >> well, okay, you're not going to find a bottom until you get rid of all this long liquidation, the hedge fund guys are still very long. so they need to still unwind those positions. but the linkage between oil and the equity market is on the demand side.

global economy is slowing and now, i think the u.s. is starting to slow as well. you got a lot of supply. demand is waning and i have hedge fund guys that are still long. connell: on that demand question, scott, do you agree with jack? i said coming in, this we knew was a supply story but now there is more and more talk that maybe it is a global economic slowdown story and maybe we join in with the rest of the world. what's the signal from oil? >> you know, i do agree, in fact, not just a global economic slowdown, but here in the u.s., the thought is that we are producing so much and the production of shale is getting so high right now that that's actually going to eat in to cap x, these lower prices are going to eat into cap x spending and actually cause somewhat of a slowdown instead of an acceleration in the economy here. so that is now the new concern. maybe it's not new, maybe it's been out there for the last, you know, few weeks on this big downdraft here, but that is a

major, major concern. yes, the supply glut is there, but if we start to turn around now and this actually has a negative effect, usually lower oil prices, we love it because it puts more money in people's pockets, this, that and the other. if that eats into cap x here, look out. connell: let me, scott, follow up with you on that, one point about the sthhale oil drilling. it's a good point. these guys have been pumping out oil like crazy with the technological advances they made the last few years. you look at places like north dakota or west texas. but if you drop below, say, $50 in oil, you start to get into the 40s, it's going to be a tough proposition for many of those companies to keep doing what they're doing and doing it at a profitable level. because their profit margins get squeezed. it just doesn't make sense for them to keep pumping out the oil, right? >> no question about it. therein lies the concern about potential cap x spending. they're not going to just shut the well off, no pun intended, but they are going to start pulling back. they are at a level now, i don't

know, i can't tell you whether it's 50 or 47 or somewhere in this range, at a level where these companies now have to make a serious, serious decision about what the future is going the hold and at what price they are going to continue this production. connell: yep. i talked to one of them last week, one of those companies said it was mid 40s, probably. mid to low 40s, something like that. used to be 50 in the old days but he said probably mid -- but we are getting close. jack, on that point, for next year, then, is it past this industry into other industries where we worry about how much companies are spending, because that's the future concern. we know things are great now. we will talk about retail, by the way, in a minute, this might be one of the best holiday seasons we have ever seen. things are great now. what about next year? >> yeah. you are absolutely right. obviously, markets are forward looking, as you pointed out, today is good, consumer confidence is high, but if the trade tensions between the u.s. and china don't resolve themselves, it won't be just cap x and the energy industry that's getting pulled back. you will see it in other

industries. i ultimately think it comes down to the fed. the fed needs to really manage monetary policy not on today's economy but where the economy is going to be 12 months from now, and that's a slower economy, without inflation. so they need to do a dovish tightening in december. connell: so they tighten in december, and when you say dovish tightening, you mean outlook for next year is to say hey, we're not going to be as aggressive as some people thought, jack? maybe you are looking for two rate hikes next year instead of four, something like that? >> yeah, exactly. what they need to do is tighten but then give us a message, somehow quantify is it two, is it three, maybe not even have to be that specific. just tell us that hey, maybe some or several rate hikes, then we will pause. remember, there will be three years of tightening next month and monetary policy has a lag effect. so they need to tell us from a market participant standpoint, tell us that hey, we are going to pause soon. connell: as a final point,

scott, is there kind of a bullish case that we're missing here? what could go right, because there's a lot of negativity coming in the markets the last couple of weeks, and it's people's outlook for the economy. what could go right that would quote, unquote, get us back on track? >> so two things. jack hit the number one point, and that's really, i love that description you used, jack, the dovish tightening here is we need some sort of speak out of the fed saying all right, you know what, we are going to digest these numbers and we are going to pull in the reins just a little bit. we're not guaranteeing three or four hikes. we will see how this goes. that, the market would react to very, very positively. in addition to that, we need to see these retail sales be the absolute blowout numbers that everybody is expecting. anything short of that and that will accelerate the thought process of global slowdown and maybe drive this market down, you know, 5%, 10%.

connell: jack, scott, i had to fight myself all interview long not to call one of you jack bauer. >> there you go. connell: thanks, guys. have a good one. appreciate it. here's the point scott's making about the retailers. we will see how things are going at the mall but if you look at the expectation, scott's right, it's very high. national retail federation survey estimates consumers will spend more than $1,000 per shopper on average, 4% plus more, than last year. at the mall for us, the roosevelt field mall just outside of new york city on long island, it's hillary vaughn. i'm sure she could add up how much is being spent. there's a lot of people on the escalator behind her. i don't know what we can take away from that. how are things going? reporter: well, they are on their way to the next store. that's what we can take away from that. we are seeing a lot of people walking around with multiple bags. there's about 160 million people around the country that are expecting to turn out this black friday and on the east coast, when you look at mall, we are hearing that 63% of them are saying they are sitting moderate

to strong turnout compared to what they saw last year. at the roosevelt field mall where i am today, they say they are expecting to see better numbers than they saw last year, but really, it comes down to who's showing up. we are seeing a lot of millenials, a lot of groups of high schoolers coming in, some of them this is their first black friday and they say it's all about the tradition. it's fun getting up, going out with their friends and shopping around. another interesting development that we're seeing, we are seeing online retailers actually try to cash in on the black friday madness. an online retailer popup shop just over my shoulder, red town, they are online only but today, they are open in store because they want to test out foot traffic to see if they are going to be able to justify opening up their own storefront and actually getting to brick and mortar. a lot of frenzy here, lot of people shopping around, excited, getting in the holiday spirit. connell: interesting. those two worlds, more and more are merging. brick and mortar and online worlds. whether it's that direction or the other way. thank you, hillary. hillary vaughn on long island.

as retailers expand black friday sales they really don't just cover today, they cover the whole weekend. you look at the concept of black friday, how important it is versus the next few days or even the days leading up to the christmas holiday, but in terms of consumers, are they being too conditioned to expect some of these big sales you see on that side and you hear hillary talking about the former sachs chairman is with us. good to have you on. i kind of always do wonder, even looking at amazon this morning, walking into work, seeing all the store signs, this economy is, the guys are saying a few minutes ago, at the moment it's very very strong. i know we have concerns about the future but it's such a strong economy. why do we need so many big sales from retailers? >> look, it is a strong economy. the retail numbers are tracking well. the mastercard spending forecast for the season is plus 5%. it looks like it's tracking to that. we had some numbers coming in this morning that said the early read is pretty good. so i'm encouraged by what i'm

seeing. the reality, though, is it's not a short season. it's early, it's late. i think one of the most interesting things, this is the biggest day of the season, it's not just black friday but the sunday before christmas is as big as black friday. the discounts are there. the consumer who is out there shopping today is expecting to have a deal. but the retailers know that. they are building it into their margin structure. so that what's happening is the consumer is feeling that they're getting good value, but the retailers are still making their margin because they understand that. i think that value is an important component, but so is uniqueness, so is experience. the consumer is expecting all of it. that's why they want to get it now, they want to get the items that are the best value, but they also want something special. connell: but those sales are not dpe dependent on where the economy is. we are in a great economy and you still get the great sale even though by most measures, people have money to spend.

most people who have a job have one. >> but they want the incentive to get out there. the value of the deal, they want to beat the system. they want to get something nobody else is able to get. they want to get the best deal to tell their friends they got it, even if they could afford to pay 10% more than it might have been. this is all part of the game that both the retailers are playing and the consumer and the consumer wants to say hey, i got -- i beat the system. i got a really good deal because i got up early. the reality is it's a little different than it used to be. i used to get up at 3:00 in the morning to go check out the stores. now i get up a little bit later because sometimes i'm buying online, sometimes i'm going to the store. but the stores are busy. you're getting the volume and online is becoming an even more important part. it's about 10%, 15% of the volume. connell: not just for amazon but for all companies that operate in the stores, they have an online component to them which leads to my next question, which isn't really a joke. why do people go to stores? i legitimately wonder, when i see someone out in the store behind hillary. they could pick up their phone

and do the same, just about the same thing, get about the same deal. i couldn't even imagine -- i can't imagine doing any of my holiday shopping in an actual store. >> you are so wrong on the whole thing. connell: not wrong. it's just the way -- it's not right or wrong. i'm legitimately wondering. >> people buy for many reasons. a good part of it is the experience of shopping. about 80% plus of shopping is still done in a brick and mortar store. brick and mortar isn't dying. connell: it's strange to me. >> they want to touch and feel. think about apparel. apparel at my old company was doing 30% of the product online but they still want to touch and feel and meet with the associate and experience it. i think your point earlier i thought was fascinating which is this convergence of online and stores. so the amazons of the world are now opening up stores. then you have the brick and mortar guys who are saying buy online, pick up in store.

walmart is moving much more in the direction of being omni channel and encouraging the online shopping. amazon is opening up stores. you have popup stores who are online, opening up stores. then you have the brick and mortar people, target growing 40%, 50%, walmart growing 40%, 50% of their internet business, and it's this convergence that is really what the consumer is valuing, because they want to buy any time, anywhere they want to get product. to your point, some of them hate going into a store. others just want to go into a store. if go the good retailer is going to provide that experience wherever they want it and will give them the value they want, so that question of do they need to promote, absolutely they need to promote, but they are going to build it into the pricing structure and the margin. connell: that separation between the two is almost like a false premise now to say online versus brick and mortar. it seems like, anyway. >> absolutely. absolutely right. connell: thank you, steve.

trying to explain to me what the value is going to stores. i just don't get it, especially on a day like this. but i do see why other people would, i guess. secretary of state mike pompeo is, well, declaring the migrant caravans heading to the boarder and will not be permitted. this comes as president trump has put out a warning to mexico about immigration. we'll be right back. jardiance asked- and now you know. jardiance is the only type 2 diabetes pill proven to both reduce the risk of cardiovascular death for adults who have type 2 diabetes and heart disease... ...and lower a1c, with diet and exercise. jardiance can cause serious side effects including dehydration. this may cause you to feel dizzy, faint, or lightheaded, or weak upon standing. ketoacidosis is a serious side effect that may be fatal. symptoms include nausea, vomiting, stomach pain, tiredness, and trouble breathing.

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it gets to a level where we are going to lose control, or where people are going to start getting hurt, we will close entry to the country for a period of time until we can get it under control. the whole border. i mean the whole border. connell: all right. president trump threatening to shut down the border, halt trade with mexico over the issue of migrants coming in. we have chris bedford from the daily caller with us now. this just talk or how do you read this? a serious threat from the president? >> it could be. the president has the power to do so, to shut down a border crossing a few days ago for a few hours because they got word migrants are coming over here. the court has held up a lot of president trump's attempts to get immigration or illegal border crossing under control and his hands are a little tied unless congress is going to step forward to do something. one place where his hands aren't tied is if he declared a

national emergency on the border, or defense emergency, he would be allowed to close the border for a period of time but that would do a lot of damage to american trade, to our relationship with mexico. it wouldn't be great for the economy. connell: we would be shooting ourselves in the foot. there's a lot of cross-border trade, especially if you go to texas or mexico or a border state, arizona, i assume people in those areas, although they might be concerned about illegal immigrati immigration, would be just as if not more concerned about the loss of business and trade, money. >> absolutely. there are lines and lines and lines of trucks bringing goods back and forth, services, people making a living. if you're living in those border towns, a large part of your economy is based on that kind of trade and travel. so it would not be a good step. it would be to show the mexican government just how serious the president is about the security there, and his ability to get it under control has been so hampered so far by congress. just the fact people who cross the border illegally can still apply for refugee status, turns out that was written by

congress. there's nothing he can do to stop that unless paul ryan, mic mitch mcconnell and maybe the democrats change it. connell: that kind of brings us to the next obvious question in all of this, whether or not the president will really force a government shutdown over funding for his border wall, and that's something he talked about yesterday as well. >> there's not a lot of incentive for him not to cause a government shutdown. he's in charge, he can decide essentially how much pain he wants to inflict on the u.s. public. for example, when the government was shut down under president obama, a lot of that pain that was inflicted, closing of parks, taping things off, that was done intentionally for optics. this is one of his major, major demands of congress. he could push it and i think there are certainly a couple congressmen who would be willing to back him. a lot of outgoing republicans in the house of representatives are angry at the president and blame him for their losses, and they may not back him to the point of a shutdown. connell: interesting in a lame duck session. something we don't hear as much about, many of the reasons those people retired is because they

knew they couldn't get re-elected or would have trouble in a primary or did, to your point, lose flat out. how does that -- that you're saying could be one of the big determining factors in all this? >> absolutely. i asked a bunch of my sources and friends in the senate, i said all right, now that the person who is substituting, the senator substituting for senator john mccain is there, could republicans potentially take another pass at repealing obamacare, for example, and they said no. the reason for it was because so many congressmen and a couple senators were angry at the president, blamed him for their electoral losses and were less likely to cooperate in any of his legislative priorities in this lame duck session than ever before. maybe paul ryan will push it but paul ryan's last act as speaker of the house is not going to be building a border wall. it's not something he's had his heart in. connell: it's not a priority for him at all, not something he has ever really talked about. then that i guess pushes it off or shuts down the government for a good part of the month of december. that what you're saying is the most likely outcome? >> it's possible.

i don't think that the government will shut down, but the president from his perch, doesn't have much to lose if it does. connell: yeah. as a political point, he could make that political point. let's talk briefly before i let you go about what the new congress looks like. it looks like nancy pelosi will be the speaker. that has been shored up over the last week or so. what do you think the first, say, six months of next year looks like from a back and forth white house and capitol hill? anything that gets done? >> no, i don't think anything is going to get done, for sure. right now, nancy pelosi is trying to get her caucus in line and pay homage to things like infrastructure and health care, and they may do a couple ceremonial bills like republicans did when they were in charge, repealing obamacare over and over again in the house. i suspect it will be a lot more on the investigative front. cabinet secretaries like ryan zinke, they will probably dig in on that. now it looks like they will dig in on whether ivanka trump broke the law by using private e-mail.

if you are president trump, you can ignore the subpoenas like president obama did from the house of representatives. what could cause him a lot of trouble is if they dig into personal finances and start investigating his business. congress can make your life very uncomfortable even if you are the most powerful man in the world. connell: that's something we have to look forward to, it will be a fun year. you ever go to stores to shop or do you do everything online? >> i went to stores last black friday. this black friday i was thinking about shopping online instead. connell: that's it. that's the line in the sand. we now crossed it. chris bedford doesn't go to the store anymore. have a good weekend. appreciate it. now, the president continuing these attacks on the fed. he has blamed the federal reserve a number of times for the stock market declines. we have another down day in the market. remember, this is the last hour of trading so we have had these moves in final hours many times here in recent sessions, the 3:00 p.m. hour usually. today, it's this hour. we close at 1:00 in the afternoon on this day after thanksgiving. we are down about 100 points on the dow. we will talk about the fed

coming up. jay powell, and whether or not he eases up on interest rate hikes and, well, we also have a tweet in from president trump. let's get to that. really good criminal justice reform, has a true shot at major bipartisan support. senators mcconnell and schumer have a real chance to do something so badly needed in our country. already passed with a big vote in the house, would be a major victory for all. criminal justice reform. more after this. when my hot water heater failed, she was pregnant, in-laws were coming, a little bit of water, it really- it rocked our world. i had no idea the amount of damage that water could do. we called usaa. and they greeted me as they always do. sergeant baker, how are you? they were on it. it was unbelievable. having insurance is something everyone needs, but having usaa- now that's a privilege. we're the baker's and we're usaa members for life. usaa. get your insurance quote today.

connell: here's a business alert on facebook. the stock is down again today. "washington post" has a new report that mark zuckerberg is rejecting a request to testify in front of seven countries' lawmakers. instead of going himself he will send a lower level executive to testify and the stock is at $131. $131.65, down another three bucks. meanwhile, interest rate

uncertainty has been weighing on the markets and president trump continues to be vocal about the federal reserve. he is certainly not alone in that. edward lawrence joins us with the latest on this back and forth. reporter: connell, the federal reserve or the president is starting to find more allies in his call to halt or pause the rate hikes from the federal reserve. now the chief economist from the national association of realtors said the interest rate hikes are starting to cause a slowdown in the economy. he said that generally, 40% of all home sales in the united states are first-time buyers. currently, though, it's sitting at 30% and he points to the rise in mortgage rates which is tied to interest rates and the federal funds rate, as the reason for the slowdown. >> one critical sector, housing sector, has shown consistent slowdown and therefore, i think it may be worth to reconsider their aggressive hikes in interest rates. so taking a pause in december and maybe even in the early part

of next year can be done, in my view. reporter: there it is. he's asking for a pause in december, that's immediate. he says that interest rates or inflation is not actually an issue. in fact, the federal reserve's own data shows they are near the 2% target even though we have seen 3.1% average hourly wages increasing over the past 12 months. president trump has called the federal reserve the greatest threat to the growing economy. the federal reserve chairman jerome powell says he wants to get back to that neutral rate which is somewhere around 3%. the federal reserve wants to use the interest rates then to head off the next recession. now the national association of realtors chief economist is saying those rising interest rates may be starting to cause the next recession, possibly, at least slow down the economy at this point. connell: that is interesting. edward lawrence, thanks. let's go to john tamney at real clear politics. we talk about what the president is saying but to have an ally in

the national association of realtors saying enough's enough with what you're doing with rates, you will cause a recession if you're not careful, what do you make of that? >> i think you have to consider the person saying it. housing is not a driver of economic growth. housing is consumption, when you buy a house it doesn't make you more productive, it doesn't open up foreign markets for you, doesn't cure cancer or lead to software innovations. it's just something you buy. this notion that you can stimulate the economy by making it easier to access a house is laughable. whether or not that has anything to do with the economy more broadly, that's another discussion. connell: that is another discussion. let's have that or try to. so if you look at the pressure, i will use the word pressure, that the federal reserve is under from donald trump, the president of the united states, what do you think the impact of that is? is it, as many people have suggested, likely to keep raising rates or maybe raise rates when they ordinarily wouldn't just to say we are

independent, we are free from any political pressure? >> well, i don't think it's terribly relevant. i think lots of -- thousands of people around the world are employed based on this notion that the fed is omnipotent but let's get back to reality. when you borrow money, you are borrowing access to resources. you want to buy tractors, you want to buy access to a building or labor or computers. the fed cannot increase those. this notion that the fed can make credit easy or the fed can make credit tight, no, no, no. in the real economy, we create resources and put them on offer. i think we vastly overstate the power of the fed to stimulate one way or the other. if central banks can do this, japan would have been booming since the late 1980s simply when it's been at zero since then. where was the growth? we discredited central planning in the 20th century. connell: that's a fair point. fair comparison, certainly, about japan and the zero interest rate culture they have had there for basically a

generation. then what about here and into next year? are you saying the fed's irrelevant or something else? >> i don't think it's terribly relevant. the way you should look at it is this way. do you think the fed playing around with interest rates is going to suddenly make it expensive for apple to borrow? do you think it's suddenly going to be expensive for fed ex to borrow under such a scenario? not a chance. on the other hand, do you think the corner store is going to be able to borrow with ease if the fed lowers the rate to zero? lost in all this discussion is that the fed is a rate follower, not a rate setter. thank goodness for that. if the fed could control the cost of credit, it could plan the cost of any good in the economy. again, we tried that in the 20th century. it was an abject and murderous failure. this notion that the fed is powerful today, it employs lots of economists but it's not a serious argument. connell: if the economy slows down next year as many predict it will, or maybe slows down the

year after, 2020, don't blame the fed? >> oh, why would you blame the fed? the fed only follows interest rates. it does not set it. let's be clear, throughout history, economies grow, people develop bad habits, bad ideas are funded, bad businesses grow. all recessions are a healthy sign of an economy fixing itself. basically cleansing itself of what's not working. the notion that the fed could centrally plan what is good is once again, not serious. economies recess on their own. connell: you get a sense this one is headed in that direction? >> you could make that argument. here's the slight difference. we never had the major economic boom from 2009 on that enabled some of the mistakes to build, so my sense is if there is a slowdown, it's not going to be that large, simply because the growth that we experienced since 2009 really has never been that great. it was never at 1980s and '90s style economic growth in modern

times. connell: boy. interesting. real quick, what do you make of the drop in oil? just something else the last few weeks. >> it's a very healthy thing. there's this notion that if oil falls, that's an economic negative. in the '80s and '90s, oil plummeted. those were the biggest growth years in modern times. when oil is falling, that's a sign of a strong dollar which is a magnet for the investment. that powers all economic growth. consumption doesn't drive economic growth. investment does. strong dollar's great for investment. connell: $51 oil. certainly good for gas prices, too. >> that's right. connell: this shopping season. good discussion. we'll have you back, obviously. we have you on all the time. appreciate you coming on today. have a good weekend. online shopping, we talked about some of these numbers, about how we are set to hit records. well, we are also hitting record cold temperatures and maybe that's a better reason to shop online rather than head to the stores. we will talk about that and more as we continue. if you're on medicare,...

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connell: we're back on a shortened trading day, the day after thanksgiving. 20 minutes to go until the closing bell rings. the dow is down by 95 points so the anxiety in the market continues for investors and you wonder whether this bull market is about to run out. we have more talk of a bear market mentality, but do businesses still have confidence in the economy? we are certainly hearing that they do from this particular holiday shopping season. the president and ceo of the job creators network, alfredo ortiz, is our next guest. good to see you, sir. what about that question -- let's take the economy now and then we will talk about the future. it seems like people are quite confident about how things are now. what are you picking up? >> yeah, absolutely. connell, thank you again for having me on the show. good afternoon and happy thanksgiving. you are absolutely correct, consumer sentiment first of all is sky-high. small business sentiment which is really the organization and groups that we really represent small business owners across the

country, 30 million of them by the way that employ 60 million hard-working americans, that confidence is sky-high as well. they continue to invest in their businesses, whether it's through higher wages, hiring more people, or really investing right back in their businesses. what we have been hearing across the board is that they are feeling very confident about this economy. connell: all right. what do they say about the future? we have had a couple interesting conversations this hour about what might cause business investment to go down, you know, declining economy, oil prices, giving the signal on that or our previous guest john tamny talking about the federal reserve. he doesn't think businesses in general care about the federal reserve that much. maybe your members tell you something different. what do they say about the future? >> yeah, you know, that was kind of an interesting comment. i was listening to that. i was perplexed in terms of where he was coming from because i think the federal reserve has a lot to do with the economy. unfortunately, if you go back to october 3rd, i think that's what really started this rout which is that expectation that interest rates were going to rise and the december rate increase and then three or four

projecting out for next year. first of all, we are calling for, let's just slow down these interest rates. we would love to see the december interest rate not actually go up, because there is, i think, a double whammy that's being impacted here by the fed. then we actually wrote on that. it's not only the increase in the fed interest rates that's happening, but remember, we are unwinding the bond portfolio that happened from q1, 2 and 3. it is what we are calling not only putting your foot on the brake but pulling the parking brake at the same time. so i think we need to let the economy just kind of take care of itself. we really, you know, are advocating for the fed to really consider taking, you know, that interest rate hike off the table for december. connell: if they don't, if they keep going with the interest rate hikes, what's the risk from the small business point of view, small, medium size businesses? >> well, we are concerned about that, in terms of the sensitivity. obviously very, very close to the consumer, and when you think about the consumer overall, what they buy, whether through credit

cards or online, a lot of them are impacted by the short term interest rates the fed absolutely has control over. when you look right now at spending overall for this black friday, we expect a healthy increase versus last year. i'm hearing something like 4%, 5%, spending to be $1,000, $1100. think about this. that is basically the tax cut that happened this year basically for all intents and purposes, covers the cost of the christmas presents that are going to be under the tree or -- this year. think about it, it is basically a free christmas for most american consumers. that's amazing. those are not crumbs. those are real dollars. connell: most people that want a job, have a job, so what about the labor market, particularly again for the businesses you represent, in terms of their outlook for next year, you expect to have as tight a labor market as we have today? >> yeah, that is one of the concerns, right. the good news is that if you want a job, you can have a job. there are more jobs available, in fact, a million more jobs available than there are people to fill them. i think we will continue to see the labor market tightening which is actually a good thing

because we are going to see that inflation on wages and i don't think people should be as concerned about it. i think that's a really good thing for americans overall, hard-working american consumers, to see the wages increase. back under the previous administration, if you remember, we basically had deflation in many cases over certain quarters, so this is really just kind of playing a little bit of catch-up on wage inflation. we think that's a good thing. overall, we will continue to see small business owners in particular invest in their businesses. you know what i find, an interesting statistic just recently on this one, basically if you look at small businesses and jobs for every $10 million spent in the small business area, they basically employ about 57 to 60 jobs for those $10 million, versus for example, amazon is about a quarter of that. we really encourage small business owners to continue their investment in terms of what they're doing with their businesses and obviously, we encourage everybody to shop more at small businesses because that's really where the jobs -- two-thirds of new job growth. connell: more bang for your

buck, definitely. >> absolutely. that's right. absolutely. connell: good talk, alfredo. only regret is we didn't have you on with john tamny. we could have had a debate on the federal reserve. we got both sides of it. >> yeah, absolutely. next time i will go ahead and do that. connell: good to talk to you. now, back to oil prices, as that plummet just continues. one thing to say how low can we go, $51.36 right now. the other question is for the economy at least, how low is too low? we'll be right back. i am an inl advisor. when i meet a new client, i start by asking questions like: did you understand all the fees you were paying? was your broker a fiduciary? were you satisfied with the attention you were getting? then i explain that being independent gives our firm

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connell: so we're still in the month of november and it is diabetes awareness month. here to tell us maybe what we could all be doing to put ourselves in a better position, doctor, good to see you. thank you for coming in. amazing, these numbers and how many people have diabetes now and also, some people, many that don't even know they have it. what should we be thinking about? how do we protect ourselves? >> you are absolutely right. about 30 million americans have diabetes, millions have it and

are unaware and that can be dangerous. things you can do to protect yourself. if you experience excessive thirst, excessive urination, fatigue, unintentional weight loss, body aches, no energy, then you need to see your doctor right away, because a simple blood test can help detect diabetes. a simple blood test. it can be life-threatening for some people. that's why it's important to see your doctor not just when you're sick, but routinely. there are also things that you can do to help prevent -- connell: give us an idea what that can be. prevention, by the way, is something we should talk even more about. in this particular case, what can we do to prevent it? >> some of the most important things you can do are exercise, stay active, get off the couch, get off your cell phone, because when you exercise, that allows the muscles to absorb the glucose and the sugar in our blood stream to naturally lower our blood sugar level. also, maintain healthy weight, diet, low fat, high fiber diet, and it's so important to make sure you have a normal

cholesterol level, norm triglyceride level and no smoking. if you smoke, you are actually at increased risk of developing diabetes and increased risk of developing heart disease. connell: of course. how much of this is preventible versus genetic? >> very good question. most of it can be prevented. diabetes, we see it a lot in people who are obese, morbid obesity. so if you are adhering to a low fat, high fiber diet, staying active, making sure that your cholesterol levels are normal, then you have a lot of control over diabetes. that's the good news about it. connell: we see these numbers going up, it's really the obesity epidemic more than anything else, especially for young people? >> that certainly plays a role. usually, type i diabetes, we see it in younger people. that's not as common as type ii diabetes which we see in adults and people who are overweight or obese or sedentery. our daily habits or lifestyle have directly an impact on our health and life span. that's a good thing that we definitely have control over our

health and our future. connell: absolutely. important stuff. good information. diabetes awareness month. thank you for coming in. >> my pleasure. thank you. connell: now, we are about to close up the stock market today which has a few more minutes until the top of the hour on this early closing day. now, we were looking at oil all day long. $51.37 is where we are, down about 6%. actually, off the lows a little bit. we just got a report from the "wall street journal" saying that saudi arabia is thinking about kind of a production cut that doesn't look like a production cut. clandestine opec production was the way the headline talked about it. tjm investments senior vice president of derivatives, scott shelley joins us from out in chicago now. so this has been out there, the market, the idea that the president has been saying to saudi arabia don't cut production, that said, we have a lot of oil so now according to the "journal" the saudis are looking at a way of cutting production without making it look like they are cutting production. what do you make of that? >> it seems to be happening all over the place.

they are going to cut production without making it look like they are going to cut production and the european central bank is going to stop qe but keep qe going but call it a different name. it's happening all over. i say this. oil is seeing like a two-week capitulation. all i have been talking about on television lately is when will we see the stock market capitulation. a lot of times that generally happens just in one day or maybe two. but it seems that these rolling selloffs of today, 6%, are even more investors and/or traders getting out of those positions because of margin calls and they are raising cash by selling their crude oil products to put it back in the equity market. it's kind of feeding on itself. when we finally start -- stop seeing 3% down day, you will be able to get a better feeling of how warm the water is. at the end of the day, it will be velocity of the lower move gets less the lower you go, right? we can't keep having this happen, because we are going to get to some point where the bottom of the barrel is in.

connell: very good. could be zero, by the way. >> yeah, exactly. connell: just in case people wonder, along with a production cut that doesn't look like a production cut, what does that look like, i will read from the story and how they describe it. they say under this scenario, opec would announce plans to retain current output targets which were set in 2016, and then that would imply a production pull-back because saudi arabia's overproducing by nearly a million barrels a day. that's how they would do it without making it look like they're doing it. but all this talk about production, to the point you're making, doesn't seem to impact price very much. it's just down, down, down we go. what would be a sign that we're oversold? lot of people say we're oversold already. what would be a sign we have actually bottomed and come back the other way? >> you know, we are getting close to that because we can't keep having these large percentage down days without any sort of breather or taking a break. i say that because 50, then 45, those percentage losses get bigger even though it's only five bucks a time, right?

so that's where you will be able to start to feel it. like hey, how much can we press this. speculators are out, obviously, pressing it because just like over the last few days when we had big selloffs in equities, the speculator has the strong hand on the sell side, right, and all these folks that are still long are now getting out of their positions and that adds to the fire on the way down. when you slowly but surely start to see that volume slow down and the percentage increase drops slow down, that's when you can start to take a breather. connell: real quick, got to take a break, we got the closing bell on because we have that today early from wall street. are you worried about the economy? >> no, i'm not. the economy is divorced from the stock market right now. the economy, i think the economy is still pretty good. i wouldn't say it's overheating to raise rates, but i still think it's very good. connell: you are in that camp. good to talk to you. have you on again soon. we have to get this break in because we are going to close the stock market here early, the day after thanksgiving. the dow is down 154 points.

we'll see how we close in a few minutes. we'll be right back with the closing bell.

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>> we are back. it is our number two of the show. it's a confusing day on wall street. will close up the wall street. you must have to pretend it's

3:59 not 12:59. it's been a crazy week for stocks. down 180 points heading into the dow jones industrial average. is that santa? that's at the stock exchange taking a look lots of cheering, they stop the winning stree str. were seeing the dow losers for the day, apple, boeing, and goldman sachs. apple because of concerns about iphones going forward. boeing and goldman sachs both have investigations. we move on to the smp winners for the week. to home construction firms, lennar and -- at campbell soup in the green up 5%. signs of improving sales.

shifting back to the losers, what's going on? we have roth stores they did site higher cost, higher freight costs going forward. we have target up there on the board, that's down 15%. partly due to guidance. apple brand owns victoria's secret, their share price also down. the retail sector as a whole has seen significant loss because of guidance going into 2019. let's turn to the nasdaq winners. the monster beverage. twenty-first century fox in the red when swiss swiss national bank sold some shares but now in the green. nobody we know for them, excess

inventory njd.com missed their top line. apple we been talking about, we are seeing signs for slower iphone demand. >> if santa costs our best. tell him bert says hello. >> when i sit on his lap, i will. >> have a good one. from that to black friday and the shopping underway. analysts predicting a 4% pop and holiday shopping this year overall. where does that leave us? let's bring him bert, the retail extraordinaire. he and bert go way back. what are your people picking up at the stores? that's what we want to use you for. >> the big thing you reference santa. this really transforms, macy's

was doing phenomenal business yesterday strong all day all night i've never seen him going that strong going into midnight, where the retail has been slow. cold weather, wet weather, when the oil markets rollover that affects the rest of retail. like you just talked, something to worry about going forward. possibly cause for concern. >> like everybody was saying last hour you have to meet these huge expectations. >> from your great experience in france, air meds, all the big luxury houses they really struggled with the people from arabia, russia, brazil, when

they are is there fashion week in golden week in the fall and they don't come back and buy in the holiday season. >> you see the lineups outside the buses. >> she's weeks french to. >> you totally an expert in luxury goods. >> is that surprising to hear that? it's slow on black friday when we had all these expectations. >> it depends on which segment of the market. online sales will dominate black friday. 60% of the goods sold will be done online. i would say kohl's just came out with a statement saying they had a record black friday so far online. >> overall if you include online are we still slow? >> is still slow, but to susan's

point, michelle has carried on what kevin has built so successfully at kohl's. macy's.com is the seventh largest retail in the world and their winning with people buying in-store and online. combination. >> it seems like if these numbers come out you would be surprised to see in underperformance overall for retail given expectations, is that fair? sue make esn cyber monday we are expecting to be bigger than black friday for the first time. with bitter cold record low temperatures in the north, worse than in a hundred years, more recent to buy online make windows black friday started and cyber monday? >> wednesday they were people saying wednesday night is the official start of the holiday. lululemon, walmart, and game stop is so much demand online on

wednesday night there sites were slow. there are people complaining on walmart.com that they can check out. >> it's our fault in the media because we have these days like black friday and cyber business saturday in -- small business saturday. >> but we have a strong economy, low on employment. >> i feel like this stocks are not chiding. >> prophet margins, they bring in revenue but how much you bring in but how much do you make at the end of the day after having to pay higher wages the supply change gets impacted by tariffs sue make is that a future concern? >> all merchandise is pre-ticketed this year so the tariffs didn't really affect the cost of goods. but to susan's point, macy's

look attractive, target stock should be over hundred dollars. while i would run overall there's some good price particularly burlington all the way to the bargain basement. there's so much stuff. >> to think sales being stronger profits been questionable as first strength, not matching and then the combination of brick-and-mortar and a cyber present? i keep hearing that you need both. >> you do. and stop separating the two. >> it's up 17%. >> whatever they do. >> who has done the best job to deirdre's point so forget about the separation of brick-and-mortar and online, they're just doing it well

combining the two in executing? >> walmart is doing a great job with my former student, walmart jet was a great purchase. >> then you look at macy's is a good combination, kohl's, burlington has started to get their stuff doing really well. >> you know what i like, you kind of take credit for that he said my former student at cornell so by the end of the conversation it's all because of bert. >> the big news next year's takeoff technologies which is robata sized and mechanized retail. it will take 95% of the cost out of retail. >> that's causing problems in the u.k. there's a big walkout today and

the workers unions say we are not robots. >> spain as well for amazon. >> in terms of retail there are players missing like toys "r" us, jcpenney might be rolling over that's benefiting the sector as a whole. one made that statement with fewer players there's more of the market to fill. >> it's key what you are both saying, you're looking at 35 billion and bankrupt and liquidating retail up for grabs. toys "r" us should be viable but the bankruptcy judge let the lawyers loot the company with nearly a billion dollars in fees for company that was making three quarters of a billion dollars. at the same time, you combine bricks and clicks, you get the best of everything and you are going to win. the millennial still want this social experience of being in the store.

the order half of what they buy online. there also abandoning their shopping carts. they see pain for delivery for the first time not everything is there. this year were seeing 25 - 35% of shop online shopping carts being abandoned. >> there comparing what they can get and then say maybe we will bite in the store. >> not joking around but i would see the appeal of going to the store as an individual. >> that said, i understand why other people do. kids like to go with their friends and things. >> hilary vann was saying she's out of mall say in high school friends meet up they have breakfast and make a day of it. >> as some point there mall rats. >> it's also an american canadian problem, you're not

seen the magic of merchandising. you not seen the great windows in the decorations the way you do in london, the way you see -- in france, so there is no real destination other than santa as he referenced. macy's to its credit is doing well but that great window and in-store merchandising on the major department stores isn't there. >> bert has a great piece on black friday losing relevance of the ten days before christmas being more important. will look for that. dear jurists speaks french and susan speaks canadian. >> i don't think i say that spanked you want to speak french before we leave? >> were trying to recruit susan

at cornell hockey. marketing media strategy. >> lesko. provide more olympians with the winning olympic hockey team. >> were going to go to the game. we have to wrap it up. president trump threatening to close the border. after he talked to the trips will talk about immigration when we come back.

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>> the whole border. mexico will not be able to sell cars into the united states where they make so many cars that great benefit to them. not a great benefit to us. at least now we have a good new trade deal with mexico and canada. we will close the border. >> that was the president threatening to shut down the border and stop trade with mexico over the migrant situation.

we have fill with us. as i asked, i wonder if he's serious about this are trying to come up with some legislative fix. what did you make those comments? >> i see those as a dress rehearsal for the next two years. a preview of what the relationship between the white house and congress will look like. even while his asylum executive orders being challenged this gives nancy pelosi and chuck schumer an idea of what things will be like. sending a clear message, if congress isn't going to work on the issue, he will. he will move unilaterally and incrementally to get the reforms he wants. this is his fundamental issue. he needs to show his base that he's achieved something on immigration. >> the less he gets done the more he has to fight again. like if the wall doesn't get built you can hold that. >> if you look at the remaining

mexico policy proposed by the administration, it's a solution to the catch and release problems that republicans talk about but it can also have larger ramifications and set the table for more lasting reforms. if 6000 migrants on the southern border. not all will qualify for asylum. a lot will be the problem of the mexican government they're going through immigration courts. add to that an increase frustrating mexican population and less tolerant mexican government and the presence of armed forces at the border could spark a crisis that could force congress to act. >> you said this has been his top agenda item at all of his rallies, immigration what is he

got done? >> republicans control the leverage of power and were not able to move forward. there wasn't much of an appetite. now trump has made overtures for democrats to come to the table. it could be a defining issue. if the crisis continues and there is no wall plays well for the president. we've seen the president go to nancy pelosi and chuck schumer in 2018 he was willing to put a path to citizenship for the dreamers on the table to get something done. if things get bad, or continue to deteriorate that could force concessions on both sides. >> what if things on the border don't get bad at all and the caravan goes away. some were excepted, some are rejected for asylum, do we just move on? sue make this interesting. ahead of the midterms we saw the

migrant caravan simmer. it wasn't the issue that they wanted it to be and to move enough seats in the republican direction. it's possible it could be resolved. it looks like a pressure cooker down there right now. from the stance of the white house i don't think they're willing to let the issue go away. democrats have an opportunity as well. they been promising to come up with a solution to the dream act to find something to look at protections for those individuals. >> a little bit of back-and-forth between the two. it's good to see you. it's been a terrible week for technology in terms of investing. it's a bear market protect scott stocks does that mean a bear market for all stocks?

the pullbacks have been something else, they been the leaders on the way up another leading us down. i've heard a lot of people talk bear market mentality this week. >> i think there is a bit of a bear market mentality. we are probably warranted technical market than a fundamental market right now. with oil dropping off, people have been unwinding trades to year-end. then you look through breaking moving averages and technical numbers the market is looking to go down not up. >> that's a good point. we talked about levels on the s&p 500. once we work our way through what is that transition look like back to a market driven by those fundamentals?

>> every merits term election since the 30s has gone up. i look for the market to find more stability going forward. probably mid-january. our numbers show mid-january. fundamentally earnings were up 27% for the quarter on the s&p 500. that's the largest gain we have had since 2010. look at the base were coming off of. >> i think they're worried about how sustainable that is next year. >> i think the market was looking for a reason to be negative. those were peak earning so they don't go down. when does it matter? when you look at a macy's selling at seven with 4% earnings and looking at a great

retail coming out of what happened yesterday. we had 3.7 billion and online retail sales right now they say they just took it from black friday. i think the market is looking for negative reasons. >> you mentioned macy's but there's other ones. >> absolutely. it's all across the board. it could be an oil and gas which is scary, big banks, regional banks, i love pac west is close to 6% yield in the pe is low. they're not can have deposit worries. i think banks are in a great place right now sue make the ones you mentioned are the ones

you all. >> yes, i own all of those. target, macy's, walmart, all looking at a good holiday sales. there's a lot of opportunities out there. >> a lot of things on sale. good to see you. >> president trump has stood by saudi arabia with the comments earlier in the week even as oil has plummeted. the president has talked about one and loyal lower oil prices down $50.90 a barrel. there are supply concerns. do the saudi's cut production or make it look like they're not cutting production? we have a lot to talk about the day after chemo shouldn't mean going back to

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i will tell you this, the crown prince hates it more than i do. they have vehemently denied it. the cia points it both ways. there are a very important ally. if we go by certain standards we won't have an ally with in a country. >> yesterday president trump continues to deny the report on jamaal khashoggi that says the crown prince gave the order for that county. we are watching that today. were also watching the oil price today. the journal report coming out that the saudi's are mulling cuts making him look like production cuts can is our guest. good to see you. as with the politics of all of this. how do you justify with what

some republicans have said letting the saudi's get away with murder just because our economic relationship with them is so important. >> first, there are no boy scouts in the middle east. then he turned to what the prince called -- and that means that sometimes you have to make tough decisions between two bad decisions. that was roosevelt's challenge in world war ii. he chose to align himself with stalin who is a murderer and oppressive to defeat hitler. the fact of the matter is, saudi arabia is a better choice than surrendering the neighborhood to iran or the outsider, russia. it's a tough call. he is the commander-in-chief and he has to make that call. >> i totally get that.

do you have to almost completely let it goal? congress could still ask. seems like maybe there will be. from the president's point of view, couldn't you do something? look at the saudi's? there's a report that they will cut oil production without making it look like they cut oil production. couldn't the president say the relationship is important were not cutting you off but we have to do something. >> i'm not sure were totally aware of all of the ins and outs of what is being discussed. everything is not played in the light of day. the reality is, he is juggling a lot of concerns. one, creeping interest rates, the drop in the price of barrels and he. >> he's not concerned about that, he likes it. >> well i think the president

and his advisers are saying if it goes too much below $50 per barrel, that can become a problem. >> there you would think he would say cut production for saudi arabia. but he doesn't want them cutting oil production. they may find a way to do that because there overproducing. if you want the price to go up you could cut production. >> what we don't know is what he is saying to them in the private of their counsel. we have the trade impasse, again the creeping interest rates. the president wants to sustain american growth and prosperity and he also wants to make sure he makes a decision that is best for national security and that deals with the most pressing threats in the world.

i would suggest to you and your viewers that iran, and russia agreed via threats in saudi arabia. yes, we must play all of our cards to make sure they get a message to know that we really don't like validations so the issue is not about saudi arabia is not denying the merger took place. >> a lot of situation. >> oil is at $50.43. president trump is confident to trade deal is coming. but is it? what about the g20? we will preview that crucial meeting after a quick break. nah. not gonna happen.

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call for a free kohler nightlight toilet seat with consultation. or visit kohlerwalkinbath.com for more info. >> a note about tesla. the stock price fell, there talking about slashing their prices in china and it's also an impact from tariffs. tesla makes them here then has to import them into china. fresh trade concerns with china overall, president trump saying he is ready for his meeting with the chinese president at the g20. edward has the latest. >> the future of trade with china hinges on this meeting between the president of china and president donald trump. it seems that moment in the mob movie where they say can be done the hard way or the easy way.

china would like to see the u.s. to ease up on them. they have taken no wait him out approach. the president to see if the president will leave office and get better for them. china saying the president forcing china's hand on that front. adding the tariffs trying to make something happen. china has taken no steps to correct any action. were talking about $200 billion of chinese tariffs though go from 10% up to 25% in 2019. the president believes the strategy is working and he is ready for the meeting. >> china wants to make a deal. china has taken advantage of the united states for many years. they have taken out four, five, and $600 billion a year. that doesn't include the theft of intellectual property which has been horrible.

it's not a question of preparing. i think i prepared for. >> the president has maury ammunition for the trade. outline how china steals u.s. technologies. it also says that china supports cyber theft of u.s. technology and failed to address u.s. concerns. they said there needs to be equal and mutually beneficial talk about trade. but again talk, not action. >> the next time something specific from good fellows. edward, thank you. >> or the godfather. either one. >> were going to go back to black friday in a moment. we have protest over target stores being closed in chicago. with that, mike tobin joins us. what's going on?

>> while everybody's out spending money, demonstrators are asking people not to spend money at target. led by congressman bobby rush. there great is that target is closing to stores and chicago's violence, predominantly african-american southside while opening to stores in the white affluent logan square. after 17 years of operation the congressman said it's going to leave a gaping hole in the community. he's asking people to put pressure on the retailer by pledging to spend not another scent. >> consumers have a moral responsibility and authority to deliver an economic consequence to any corporation including target in this nation that completely violates the trust that consumers have.

>> the target company said we respect their right to express their disappointment today. going forward were focused on working with leaders to make sure these properties are redeveloped in a way to make a positive impact. they will also preserve jobs by transferring employees. however one running for mayor says it's not just these jobs, it's all about him around the strip mall and in the neighborhood that depend on the big draw traffic from the big store. >> it's always something in chicago on black friday. the technology that were talking about, they are all in a bear market. we'll talk about that in just a moment. we will be right back.

>> small businesses are hoping to cash in on the buying frenzy set to pop. but, how do they compete with big guys? they're the president, ceo, karen is our guest right now. it's good to see you. a big shopping day and season were getting into.

we talk about how walmart catches up her competes with the threat from amazon. they're doing are right online but both of those and other big companies with threatened small business. how a small business keeping up? >> they're doing quite well. they are small and close to the customer and have the flexibility to respond to what's happening in the marketplace. in fact, small retailers are having a strong year according to sage work privately held small retailers have had a growth of 5.4% during the past year. they're faring well. >> what about online? is amazon which might threaten large retailers helping out there? >> small businesses and retailers are adapting. they are embedding technology across the operation.

the responding to disruptions in terms of taken advantage of online and mobile sales. there is great technology they're using to meet customers where they are. again, there hanging in there and doing well. obviously there are some that could be left behind. for the most part small retailers are responding to this new disruption. >> let me talk about concerns going forward. seems to be the theme whether in financial markets or economic discussions we have been having. that things are great now. we have retail members coming in now. the future people are concerns about rising interest rates and economic slowdowns overseas, trade tensions, what about the outlook from's from small business owners are they starting to turn negative? >> a little caution. given the outcome of the election and what that means for

policy certainly there has been policy momentum which has provided a boost in confidence of growth. that's a disruption that they're looking at is seen that it could affect the economy. we did a postelection a survey. found that business owners were more pessimistic about where were going to be next year. policy is going to drive how they do and that's why were pushing for a lame-duck policy boost to get us through 2019. >> there's a few issues, healthcare is one we are looking at extending an increase on the health insurance tax. also a huge package the job acts three-point oh and this would be an enormous boost. and then the overall economy.

there are things this congress can do that will carry us into 2019. >> i don't know how confident you should be about this lame-duck session. some are saying this congress the ones that loss blamed the president for a might not work for them in the lame-duck, how confident are you that these priorities can turn into realities? >> i'm confident about a few of them. a lot has taken place on the house side. we do find it to be a different dynamic. i'm confident about a couple of them. we keep pushing. >> why not just be a little optimistic. >> that's how we get things done. >> good to see. have a good one. in a moment, oil continues to plunge.

the biggest one-day decline since july of 2015. now down seven weeks in a row. crazy stuff. $50.39 per barrel. are you on medicare?

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maloney joins us now. one of the things that brings up that we haven't talked about at least on this show yet is whether some of those store locations are valuable to others. some pretty good real estate, i would think, at toys "r" us location, for example. what's going to happen? >> well, both toyz and series are valuable locations. it's like anything else in real estate, it's all about location. the better locations are going to go a lot quicker than sort of the moderate ones, then the ones that aren't as well located, will eventually get absorbed but it's going to take a little more time. connell: go ahead, keep going. >> i was going to say, as far as toys "r" us is concerned, it's the same thing. there's a lot more of those so it will take more time but for the most part, if it's a great location, it's already being absorbed. connell: yeah. i think i noticed that in some of them already, or signs up and whathave you. what types of -- is it usually retailers that come in and take advantage of those locations or other businesses, or just a mix? >> it's a mix.

but the better locations, it's generally staying retail. sort of the ones that aren't retail locations get destroyed or demolished and turned into something else. but for the most part, we have seen a mix. we have seen a lot of retail uses. we have seen a lot of service uses. but food and beverage seems to be the one that is taking over along with value. connell: such a service economy now. the future for that, what's your outlook for kind of this nook in the corporate real estate world? rates are going up, and inventory is coming online from some of the store closures. what's next year look like? >> well, i think next year is all about the consumer and their confidence and right now, it's at an 18-year high. so as far as retail sales are concerned, if consumers feel good about how their job is going and how their homes are faring, they do very well. the key indicators are unemployment, those are all-time

low. so we anticipate a great holiday season and then for 2019, we're very optimistic about a very strong first and second quarter, and then after that, you just sort of take a look. but we're very optimistic. it's going to be very strong and it will continue to be strong. connell: that's fair. we don't know what will happen with interest rates yet. we don't necessarily know how this trade thing will play out or how the macro economy will look. i saw your survey saying even for today, i thought this was a high number, like 78% of the population does some shopping on this black friday. most of us, it's just, it's in ouamazon or somewhere else onli and that's as good as going to the store. it's just getting the word out there, i guess, and people, looks like they are in a big-time shopping mood this year. you must be optimistic about the sales numbers we'll see at the end of the season. >> oh, yeah trngs ve, it's very. i think it will be like 6% to 6.5%. you got to realize that a lot of

the online sales now are being done by brick and mortar locations. so you take a look at the almost 15% of online sales that are being done, almost half of that is being done by brick and mortar. we are seeing a convergence of brick and mortar and the online sales. connell: difference between 4% and 6% is pretty big. we had a lot of surveys come out, we mentioned earlier, 4%, 4.1%, something like that in growth. why are you so much more optimistic? what makes you optimistic? >> what makes me optimistic is the consumers. wages are up, i think they were up 3.1% in october. and i think when people feel good about themselves and wages are up, they go out and buy things. the other thing that's up about 15% and we are anticipating over last year, is self-gifting. in other words, you go out, buy some gifts for family members, you see something you like and you buy it. that's a big driver of holiday sales.

connell: right. we all do that, right, even people, even if they don't admit it, you're online, you're looking for somebody else, you're like you know what, i'm looking at me, i might like that iphone or something like that. >> absolutely. connell: it makes it easier to do that. what about concerns that are out there that everybody else mentions, though? don't you think maybe low oil prices tell us an economic slowdown is coming, real quick? >> well, we follow key indicators, like i said before. consumer confidence, housing starts, unemployment, wage growth, and when all those are very positive, a lot of people are sort of blinded by those things. they continue to feel good about themselves and they go out and spend money. that's what retail sales are all about. we're not concerned about them right now. i think we should be, in the coming months, but right now, for this holiday and the first quarter, it's all about let's go get it and let's make it a great holiday season. connell: hope you're right. good to see you. thanks for coming on.

>> thank you very much. appreciate the time. connell: thank you, everybody, for watching us today. we had a tough day in the markets but lot of good news it seems in the retail world. watch "cavuto live" tomorrow on the fox news channel from 10:00 a.m. until noon. i will see you every day starting again next monday on "after the bell" at 4:00 p.m. eastern. have a great day. happy thanksgiving weekend. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. hope you had a very nice thanksgiving. coming up in just a moment, "wall street journal" editor at large and host of the new fox business show wsj at large, jerry baker is coming up. plus later in the program i sit down with federal reserve bank of dallas president, robert kaplan, both my special guests coming up. you won't want to miss that. stay with us. first let's get