and check out our website at... i'm bob massi. i'll see you next week. [ woman vocalizing ] bell" at 4: eastern. have a great day. maria: happy thanksgiving we weekend, everybody!thank you for joining us. welcome to the wprogram that analyzes the week that was and helps position youfor the week ahead.i'm a maria bartiromo. hope you had a nice thanks giving. the host of the new fox business show, jerry baker is coming up. later in the program i will sit down with federal reserve bank of dallas president, robert kaplan. both my special guests coming up. you will not want to miss that. stay with us. but first, we are going to the

fox business newsroom with more. reporter: is short for dramatic week on wall street. energy retail and tech on the market.the nasdaq closing lower for the week. the tech under pressure with apple amazon, facebook and alphabet all closing lower for the week. apple falling around 10 percent for the last session. in the self and oil, at the lowest point for 2018. the president touting falling prices and cheaper gasoline, tax cuts for america and the world. the nissan chairman arrested in japan for charges of financial misconduct, when specific charge, japanese say he underreported income from his role in nissan by b%5 billion. 44 and half million dollars. over a five-year period.

back to you. maria: thank you riso much, deirdre bolton. a rough week for stocks. the dow point down. and we are entering bear market territory. from an all-time high of $233 a share. other technology heavyweights like amazon, google also down there than 20 percent. all now in bear market territory. the technology titan had quite the run. right now we go to my next guest for reaction, that is wall street general editor at large and host of the upcoming program here on the fox business network. it will air at 9:30 p.m. eastern right after this program on fox business. congratulations! >> thank you i'm looking forward to it. maria: i want to go take on what took place this week.

the markets trading very nervously. worries about economic growth. what you think is behind this volatility? >> i think it is a number of things going on. clearly, a primary concern interest rates are rising the fed has been pushing rates for three years. long-term rates have been rising. in the last couple of weeks but there is a concern that what that means and what it might mean and also concern it could as interest rates have done in the past, it could tighten the economy with 10 years almost into the expansion, quite often the expansions are derailed by rising interest rates. there is concern about that. secondly, you are seeing concern about the economy more generally. a lot of clouds on the horizon. in this country, growth is slowing still from what we had in the last year. europe is slowing quite significant, there is concern about china and the trade dispute that continues between the s and china and whether that can spread. i think that is depressing confidence. and the third thing is

particularly trying to protect the opening remarks, many of the tech companies down in bear market territory now. that is for a number of reasons considering the pace of innovation, concern about the possibility of regulation and concern that these stock prices are overvalued. maria: i want to ask about tech stocks in a moment.but on the economic growth story, it is strange to me to think about a recession. we just saw 4.2 percent economic growth for the second quarter. in three and half in the third quarter. when the first people assessment back in april we are going to see 3+ percent growth this year by 19 and 20 will come other down going into 2020 but i don't see it with the current numbers. we had earnings of the s&p 500 up 29 percent. >> yes there are other things

going on. i thinks in terms of the overall economy you're right. it remains strong, concern is however, a lot of the demand, in the last year, -- >> companies and individuals, very significant tax cuts. that lifts the economy. you can see it in the level of government, the level government, that is fading. that big impulse we got from tax cuts is fading. and it is not clear what else there is to take up the slack. we have thinterest rates rising. we have weakness elsewhere in the world. there is a concern.i know today that j.p. morgan in the economic outlook but the odds of the drecession in the next year or 30 percent. maria: and also they said next year would be the best growth year for the global economy in a long time. >>. [multiple speakers] >> it is hard to see how growth next year without falling into

recession how growth can be as strong as it has been this year. because you did have the tax cuts, you had reasonably good international economic environment. he had relatively low interest rates. all of those go in the other direction next year. again, i am with you. i know think we will have a recession. frankly, we can get another year of two and half percent which would be absolutely fine. maria: wall street journal at large with gerry baker. we are happy you are joining the neighborhood you will be after this program. what can we expect? >> lb looking at the big news. economy, business, markets, washington. what's happening around the world. i will be doing it in an interview, extended interview with one guest and we will explore not just the news itself and headlines but try to dig a little deeper into the trends and things created the news. not just what happened this

week but we will look at what is behind it. what is driving the economy right now? what is driving the market? maybe define what the factors are deep down. with some really smart minds from across business, the economy, government, academia, really exploring in some depth, these big trends that are changing and shaping our world. maria: that sounds fantastic. i know you have a great lineup of guests plan. the new program launch is next friday, november 30 immediately after this program at 9:30 p.m. eastern aeveryone here it fox business is so thrilled about the program. and to have gerry baker on the team. good luck with that. do not go anywhere my interview with robert kaplan is next. rais in december but when will the economy feel the impact of that hike? >> the u.s. economy could look very different in the first quarter, first half of 2019, than it does today. >> with maria bartiromo's >> with maria bartiromo's - [narrator] do you have less energy than you used to?

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blame the federal reserve for the markets selling off? the president thinks so. oi>> i think text stock has problem but i think we will do well. i like to see a low interest rate, i think it is too high. i think we have much more of a fed problem than with anyone else. >> the selloff in stocks has been largely about worries over economic growth slowing down. i sat there with federal reserve bank of dallas president robert kaplan. i asked him about rate hike timing, economic cycle right now and why he is worried about it coming down. >> the reason i think growth may well slow, the stimulus is helping us this year and we have been expecting that some of that effect will fade and in 19 and 20. that is to be expected. and underneath then, in the economy, the gdp has made

growth in the workforce and productivity and workforce growth has been solid but we think it is going to start to be challenged because of aging. we are pulling more people into the workforce, that is a good thing. but we are aging as a society. workforce growth as a result is flowing. this is why training and skills training is so important to get people into the workforce. then can productivity grow? you will be based heavily on more business investment, technology and more adaptable workforce. that is the thing we don't know. but i would say with corporate profit growth, slumming down and maybe decelerating, it creates a headwind for more investment. maria: we have another interest rate hike we are expecting in the next couple of weeks when

the fed holds his last meeting of 2018. and robert, going into that meeting you have the wall street journal editorial board saying hold up federal reserve, they should rethink, they say start with the fed which should rethink the december rate in america is not an island. maybe should not be raising rates four times this year. your reaction? >> my reaction is, we have raised rates now eight times. over the last 2 1/2, three years. we are now at two ã2 1/4 percent. we are getting close or approaching neutral where we are neither accommodative or restrictive. i think at this stage, my own approach will be to avoid being rigid or predetermined in terms of our next steps. we will use the lingo data dependent. that means i will be very sensitive to talk to contest, looking at data, understanding what is going on with

o businesses. looking globally and i think we would be wise to be very patient and gradual here because i think we are approaching a neutral stance and we have some of the headwinds that you and i just talked about. maria: use it often times when rates move with a lag in terms of when it actually is felt, right? so we have seen three hikes this year. what is your timing in terms of how this affects and takes impact? >> well, you never know exactly what the lag is. but my own working thought in my mind is 6 to 12 months. so the thing i have been saying and talking to my team about around the table is, i'm very conscious of the fact it is possible that the u.s. economy could look very different in the first quarter or the first half of 2019 than it does today. because you have got these crosscurrents. the physical stemless, monetary policy taking hold, other trends going on. tariffs, input costs, global

growth decelerating. i think the way to deal with all of those uncertainties in my position, is to be willing to be nvery focused on data, no be rigid, not be predetermined and to be patient. maria: speaking of global growth, thchina saw six and hal percent sounds good but it is lower than a lot of people thought. japan contracted in the last quarter, europe is really mixed. germany is a lot worse off than people thought. and you have got britain exiting the european union. how important of these global issues in terms of impact on america? >> i think global growth decelerating eventually in my judgment will have spillover effect to the united states. the other reason we see this significantly, almost 44 percent of s&p 500 companies, their revenues are outside the united states and so, while you

may not see that as soon in the u.s. economy, you will see it among the leading companies because they are very global. maria: is any reason to believe that the president reverses his stance on steel and aluminum tariffs? you yomentioned that, a couple times and no in your meetings with ceos and managers of businesses, which is a regular occurrence for you, they are worried about tariffs, right? in the impact. >> yes, they are. and what they are saying is -- and they are attributing a lot of this to terrace. input costs are going up.a tight labor market as part of it. that does not sthave anything t do with tariffs. but steel, aluminum other raw material costs are going up. some of them have the ability to pass on the cost increase to their customers. and a lot of industries and companies do not have the ability and they are seeing margin erosion. and so, i think trade issues with china certainly very

critical. that we have a more level playing field. it is starting to affect u.s. companies, even though it is not affecting topline gdp growth i can tell you it is extensively affecting u.s. companies. maria: we saw the jobsreport a couple of weeks ago with wages up 3.1 percent. year over year. a good number . i ask you the bottom line here, is inflation problematic at this point? >> yes, so we have a very tight labor market.it does not mean it cannot get tighter. it can. so what it tells me is, typical inflation pressures are building. on the other hand, you have some structural forces, mainly chtechnology and technology enabled disruption as well as globalization. that are deflationary. my own view is, while we will see a little bit and expect we will see higher inflation, it will not be running away from us. i think the structural forces

will mute it. i think it gives the feds some latitude in terms of the decision-making on monetary policies. maria: don't go anywhere more my exclusive interview with robert kaplan coming up after this break. attention. >> we expect all prices will be very volatile.

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the national debt is now at $21 trillion and growing! will the markets start noticing? continue my conversation with robert kaplan, i asked him about the growing debt in ofthe country and just how much of a problem is becoming. here is what he said. >> there are four big drivers

of the u.s. economy a look at. aging demographics, productivity growth, this issue, the third one you're talking about is debt. and that is right now, higher edlevels of debt is a tailwind, actually.and he mentioned china earlier. one of the reasons they are achieving 6 and a half percent is that they are using debt, they are leveraging up to achieve it. and we have leveraged up some in order to achieve it. and it helps in the short run. in the longer run though, that tailwind is likely to become a headwind if we need to moderate the debt growth and particularly the case because we have an aging society in the present value of intelligence is another -- the issue is, we have to deal with the debt growth and it will be a headwind. i'm lsworried about what we are leaving to leour children and grandchildren. i think the time to be

moderating debt growth is sooner rather than later lastly, means with this level of debt, we are more rate sensitive in this country . so i have got to keep that in mind. maria: eddie-- at a hedge fund meeting to pop to see it happening? >> from reading published reports, what is referred to in particular recently, the consumers deleverage over the last eight or nine years in household ballot sheets are in better shape than they were. corporate debt is higher though. good news is that it is away from the banking sector. so the issue on corporate debt is, i do not think on the one hand, it may not create a systemic risk but what it will do is if we start to slow down and you have less availability of capital to companies, you can see high default rates and

i think in a moderate slowing it could turn a moderate slamming into a bigger slowing. because when companies and consumers see more defaults, that will have a negative psychological effect. it can also cause credit spreads to widen. which will tighten financial conditions and that is why the level of debt could turn out to be a challenge for the economy. maria: and then there is the dollar. we see the strong dollar is a positive vignette the rest of the world is looking at this strong dollar and trying to get around it. is that what you are seeing? >> yes, it is. and i mentioned the four drivers and imagine three of them. the fourth one is globalization. we are much more integrated with the rest of the world, financially and economically. what it means is when our dollar is strong, it can create fragility and other countries,

turkey and argentina are examples because they have a lot of dollar exposure. we've got to be conscious and i have to be conscious in this job. a strong dollar can create some instability and challenges around the world. and also make for exports more expensive. maria: is sure does. i want to turn to oil because it has a volatile ride. certainly in the last two months. in bear market territory down 20 percent from the high to the low. a lot of the worry has to do with -- recognize the u.s. is in a very good condition in terms of being an oil producer and oil exporter. but you made the point recently saying that there are limits to the growth, tell me about that and what is your reaction to the selloff in oil?>> yeah, so as part of the selloff is due to u.s. production this year has been higher than people expected. we have expected net increase in u.s. production mainly shale, about a million barrels a day net and will probably closer to 1.3 or 1.5. that is on the upside. in addition, people were thinking because of the iranian sanctions, you might lose

500,000 or a million barrels a day of iranian oil.and because of the waivers, it has not materialized. we have given exceptions. so there's a little bit more supply than people expected. and to the point you are raising, i think there is also a fence with global growth decelerating. particularly from emerging-market concerns. that may be demand will be a little lower. maria: my thanks to robert kaplan. don't go anywhere, more "wall street" after this.

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this sunday and every sunday. and start smart, tune in weekdays here on the fox business network from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. eastern for mornings with maria. we help set the tone for the day. join me weekdays. that does it for us right now. thanks for being with us. from all of the weekend. thank you for eternity. the great west of the weekend, i will see you next time. >> welcome to women and money. 40% of american women are the breadwinners for the family with more power and more responsibly than ever before. there's a lot to navigate from dealing with practical money and investing issues to how to handle tricky career situations. i'm deirdre bolton and i have not amazing and in special gas where the top of their field. they will share what they learned and put on their mental health and answer top is this related business questions. the show is for all ages, stages for people in all industries. first guest, blackstone's