term by the stock market. it even happened during the great depression. if you're in more than a year or two now looks good to me. charles: greatest money making machine in the history of the mankind. thank you, david. blake burman in for neil. blake, take it away. blake: even day on corner of wall and broad. up 60 the dow is. welcome to "cavuto: coast to coast." i'm blake burman in here for neil cavuto for one more day. it has been a wild swings on wall street. the dow is on pace for the worst december since 1931 and the worst month in about a decade. to market watchers, dan shaver, todd horowitz if they believe the volatility is here to say. hi, guys. >> hey. >> what do you say, blake. blake: todd, start with you. this has been even keel sort of day. what do you make of it. >> i've been trading 39 years as a floor trader.

this has probably been the wildest day i've seen in forever. i think have more room to go to the downside. i think we'll see vicious bounces. as long as high volatility remains which i think it will, i think market will test and take out the near term lows. i think 2019 will be pretty ugly year. blake: how low? >> i don't like to make massive predictions, i would not be surprised 10 to 15% from here if not more. blake: dan, do you think the same or are you much more bullish than that? >> no. i think todd and i are on the same page. i've been trading 39 years also, starting in the pits. i've seen a lot of things in my lifetime, studied thousands of years of markets. i don't think we're at the bottom yet. i think volatility is here to stay. it had been artificially controlled for eight years. so i think we have four years ahead of us of this volatility. i do think that the market will make its way back to the close of the night before the election. i think that is the direction we're going. i agree with todd, as far as

january is concerned, i'm very concerned about january 5th as a cycle date. we could make a nice really hard low there. blake: why that day? >> what we're seeing -- well that day, there are some things happening that day. i know this sounds really weird but the market top in september right around the equinox, sent sent -- september 21st. we have solar eclipse and other cycles hitting with other commodities. i just think that the way the market is trading now, looking where we are here with mutual funds trying to mark up their books for the end of the quarter, so the end of the year, so they don't look as bad as they did on the day before christmas, once that is out of the way and everybody starts to see their portfolios and hear about the political issues in washingtonthe separation of the democrats and republicans, the shutdown, i think that people will just bail out. and you got at some point you have to take profits. the market will continue to seek lower levels. i don't expect a crash. that is why the volatility

indexes are not really screaming. so because of that, i feel that some people still don't believe that we have more downside. until that happens, and we get really high levels of the vix index, which is and indicator, i think we still have more room to the downside but we will have, blake, these very sharp, bear market rallies. they look exciting. then they just fade out. >> they're vicious. blake: today, todd, today hasn't been that sharp. the dow is up right now 70. we started in the green. went down in the red, back up in the green. nothing like we've seen from beginning portions of this week. why kind of sort of even keel today at least so far today? >> i think it is even keel if you look at price, blake. when you look at overall action, i mean we're down 100. we're down 100. up 200, down 200. it is really wild, crossing back and forth across the unchanged line. that is something to watch. blake: is up 100, or down 100

kind of wild? that almost seems like a new norm, no? >> just a wild swing. listen, 100 points today is nothing. when i started trading the dow is below 1000. so it is certainly not a big number, but just the way it is getting there. you're watching it, one minute it is ticking down, next minute ticking back up. i want to point to dan's point on the vix. the vix average, 20 year average on the vix is over 20. we're back to what we consider normal volatility what floor traders used to have. it has shrunken down from a lot of manipulation and what fed tried to do is control markets. volatility is where it should be. the point dan is making we need to see the vix going up into the 50s. that might create a capitulation bottom which we saw in november of of '08 even though the market didn't actually bottom until march '09. the real bottom came in when the vix spiked to about 80.

blake: i sat down with larry kudlow a few weeks ago, a bunch of reporters over at the white house before the g20. that is what one of the arguments he made, the vix was at 14, 15, 19, somewhere in there, look not so much volatility at least historically speaking. that is one argument the president's top economic advisor is making. dan, i give you the last word before we get out of here. >> thank you, blake. something i'm thinking about, the stock market is trading like the commodity market. a lot of people don't like to trade soybeans, silver, treasury bonds, corn, sugar, they claim it is too volatile. i'm looking at commodity markets. they are less volatile than what the stock market is doing now. investors are extremely scared. i think washington is very scared. i don't think they know how to control this. i think they're in the markets to try to do something. that is why we get the sharp up spike moves. blake: dan shaffer, todd horowitz, thanks for joining us. enjoy your weekend. speaking of the white house,

the economic council chair kevin hassett telling me that president trump isn't too worried about these wild swings. watch here. >> the president thinks the economy is doing well. the economic fundamentals are sound. he is pleased to see the markets move back where they belong given the fundamentals. blake: olympic meeting managing editor katy freitas to see if the president is too fixated on the markets. how are you doing? >> doing well. blake: what struck with me yesterday after we spoke with kevin has set of on "after the bell," the president on board air force one, this is coming after the visit to iraq, picked up the phone to talk about the markets. that is a pretty behind the curtain moment. >> if you see 1000 point gains, sharp lows immediately after all the volatility, he is going to want to pay attention to it. of course he had many, many years of involvement in business. so it makes sense that he is going to be perhaps more attuned

to this than other presidents would be. blake: but should it be, he should be attuned because of his business background, because he talked about this so much? or because any president who would have been in the white us, president trump, president clinton, you name it, should be attuned at this point? >> all presidents should pay attention for sure. he has a little bit more of desire or intuition to. of course if you're seeing such volatility as i said before, it is important, you have to keep an eye on something like that. a lot of americans tend to at that point turn to the white house, turn to authorities, here is someone like the president to see, for reassurance. hey, boss, hey president, what is going on? >> this is a president as well, who takes on the fed, who talks about companies. should he be going that far? >> you know, i think, we have seen time and time again that the president is going to do whatever the president wants. blake: right. >> he tends to get more involved as opposed to less involved, which may sometimes benefit him more to be less involved. but he is always right there on

twitter. he will say what he thinks. he will say exactly what he wants to say, for better or for worse. sometimes that can be very pointed commentary at specific businesses or companies. blake: so if it was the president owning the market on the way up and blaming the federal reserve and jay powell on the way down, i know there is much, much talk and skepticism this market could continue to run down. but if it surprises to the upside in 2019, it is the president then saying what? he is not going to thank the federal reserve? >> no, certainly. blake: where is he going to turn to next? is it going to be him again or what? >> probably -- blake: you know what i'm getting at? >> so that is the hard thing, right? kind of how much ownership as a president do you want to take of the stock market. because if you're going to claim the benefits when it is doing well, you have to also claim its benefits when it is doing poorly or volatile just like right now. that is how it goes. he can't have his cake and eat it too in that sense. sometimes it feels like he is

trying to do that. it behooves them to reassure the public, talk to them in that regard, as opposed to blaming anyone else that he can. blake: last question to you. do you think the president needs to sit down with jay powell? do we need the president sitting down, pool sprays, where the cameras come in and try to reassure folks everything is okay or do we believe his tweettwitter feed from here on out, we know where the president stands? >> that won't hurt things. he loves the pool space and cameras in front of him, much as twitter he can directly talk to the american people, perhaps not what he says be misconstrued in his eyes by journalists. i don't think that would be a bad thing. ultimately that will be up to the president himself. blake: katie freitas, managing editor of olympic media. >> thank you. blake: the dow was up triple digits, at least a second go. the dow up 98 points.

we keep our eye on the markets t has been a absolutely wild week. we continue to keep our eye on capitol hill. no vote on the shut down this year. a new congress next year. where does this all go? many people are saying this goes nowhere, potentially for quite some time. i knew about the tremors.

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blake: markets have been volatile this week. congress has been anything but. adjourning without plans to end a shutdown. there is debate among republicans best to wait until democrats take over the house, to move on with a plan. fox news senior capital hill producer, chad pergram live on the hill. chad, there is folks behind you. i guess they are all tourists with congress is out of town? >> i have not seen a single lawmaker today. there were five or six when they met for senate met 3.42 seconds. house met for 3.50 seconds but they didn't pass anything. there is big debate what should be the next step. there is message from the republican high command they don't expect anymore vote this is congress. that means the new congress which starts next thursday, this would be in their court. republicans think they have advantage. they could put some onus on

incoming house speaker nancy pelosi, saying she bears some responsibility. the blake, the question of course, who would fold first? would nancy pelosi at some point, she will have to pass a bill where some democrats will have to vote for some concession or at that point, president trump, if he gives in, does he look like he is folding to nancy pelosi. that is the big question on capitol hill. blake: chad, tell me if i'm wrong, that the republicans embraced the strategy, or at least coalesced the strategy, they're saying this is nancy pelosi's problem and they're trying to target nancy pelosi? the problem though for republicans they tried to do that during the election and they lost the house. once pelosi gets control of the house in a week or so, she is going to pass a spending bill with the backing of democrats, put the onus on the senate? isn't that the way this is playing out? >> this is part of an old playbook republicans used since 2018, 2009 when she was speaker of the house. she was viewed as toxic that is one of the reasons they got the house back in 2010. there is a little bit of

division in her caucus whether or not she should return as speaker of the house but she seems to have the votes wrapped up. you raise an interesting point. this has to get 60 votes in the senate. last week, blake, there was a bill that moved throughout the senate without any objection, no senators on either side. blake: to fund the government. that is exactly what nancy pelosi will do, right? she will be doing that with backing of democrats, see, we just did that the senate, did this few weeks ago, p president, let's get things open? >> right. this other fact will come into play late next week or deeper into january if goes that long. these new members of congress, democrats are will phones will ring off the hook, emails, facebook messages, tourists taking a tour of the capitol today during the christmas holidays. but when everybody gets back to their jobs, gets focusing on politics again, that will be a

lot of pressure on members of congress from both sides of capitol hill and both parties to reopen the government in some form. that is when some of the polling too will really get a better metric who they blame for the government shut county. that is where the pressure will ramp up, some folks will say, hey, we need to reopen the government. will probably take a week or two. blake: chad, day seven of the partial government shut down, 25% of the government shut down, it looks like it will go to eight or nine or 10. chad pergram thank you. >> my pleasure. blake, they say democrats are the ones bolting with no plan? >> the democrats shut down the discussions. they did not counter us. they left town. i think they did because nancy pelosi in fairness does not have votes for speakership yet. she cannot be seen by her party being weak negotiating with donald trump. we fully expect until she is elected speaker, and locked that vote up we don't expect to hear from the democrats again. they told us last night they were not countering our last

offer. blake: how might all this play off? former chief of staff to senator mike lee, boyd matheson, former democratic party chairman, scott bolden. >> good afternoon. blake: let me start with you, boyd. seems like this is the gameplan as we walked through with chad. for republicans to say, nancy pelosi, you have the house here soon. your move next? smart tact? >> no, i think it is a big mistake. blake: why? >> ought to happen, mitch mcconnell should call the senate back into session immediately. no bill can be passed, no government can be reopened if there is nobody in session, nobody to vote. he should call up the bill passed by the house, five billion for border security. if the democrats vote that down. he can remind them everyone there voted for $8 billion for a fence just a few short years ago under president obama. then he can go into say, let's compromise? how about four billion, take a vote. 3 1/2 billion, three billion, go down to 2 billion where the

president ultimately will land. if they do that, do it in the light of day. don't do all of this behind closed doors stuff. that is politics as usual. have the votes, have the debate, get the compromise. see who is really willing to secure the border because everybody agrees we need to secure the border. both side agree on that. so get the politics out of it. if you wanted to go real extreme, if they vote it down 2 billion for border security, then you can go back to the original 5 billion an invoke a very arcane rule called rule 19 which gives each senator the chance to only speak twice on issue, so no filibuster. the vice president could go to the chair. call the question and they could actually pass it with 51. blake: that seems like going down a road probably not likely to happen. >> a bit of a rabbit hole. >> scott would love that though. blake: what is the way to get out of it? >> here's the deal. the democrats are for border security. the numbers that boyd was raising go to border security. the democrats aren't giving any

money for the wall. that is the core issue. because there is no empirical data to support the fact this wall would be a deterrent what the president often says is illegal immigration. we know most of them come across on legal visas and overstay their visit. it will not stop drugs. because of those are smuggled in through legal port entries. it will not stop terrorists because the department of state even says that terrorists, very few have been identified at that southern border. ms-13, less than two, my goodness, .2% of ms-13 have been identified or any other gang members. so it is not so much political. it is there is no data to support this. even the government's own agencies say this would not be deterrent. so here's the deal. why not walk away from the border wall, put money into border security then. that is the real crux of the debate. blake: boyd, this country loves its fantasy football and fantasy basketball. he walked through fantasy

politics there how you would play that one. >> that is real data, even the federal government says is true. blake: to boyd though, the reality is democrats will control the house and they're saying, no border wall money at all. so is it going to end up being that the president will have to blink first on this one? >> yeah, well, i think the sad part is only people win on this are the political partys who raise hundreds of millions of dollars off of it as a wedge issue. scott and i both agree on this i think we could solve 94.5% all of the immigration issues and border security issues in an afternoon on the floor of the house and senate, if there were leadership on either side of the aisle. so i think what the american people have to really look at is we need to expect more out of our leaders. we can have an open, honest debate and conversation. let's do it. let's get on the floor of the house. on the floor of the senate. let's have that debate. we can sit here and point fingers and place blame and

shrug shoulders. we can find fault or find a solution. the american people simply interest to expect more, not less. blake: scott, briefly, 15 seconds to you. >> i think boyd is absolutely right. i think both sides need to come with new ideas. for example, why don't the democrats or the republicans offer daca to the democrats in exchange for border wall money? you might find some sway there in the house and the senate? or just pass a bill that doesn't include any of the border wall money or border security money. just to get the other agencies going so you don't have pressure. blake: one thing nancy pelosi is going to do. so we'll see. we'll see where all of this plays out in 2019. have to leave it there. boyd, scott, thanks for joining us. appreciate night thanks. blake. blake: china stock market is the world's worst this year. why some say that is good news for the u.s. more on "cavuto: coast to coast" after the break.

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♪ blake: stocks making a big move today, so too is the company, adding larry ellison to its board of directors. gerri willis from the floor of the new york stock exchange. hi, gerri. >> blake, good to see you. adding larry ellison, he is the founder of oracle, a big tech ceo over time. this fulfills terms of the company's sec agreement and musk had to famously pay a $20 million fine. ellison describes himself as friend of musk and invested $3 million in tesla is also brash himself. will be interesting to see if he brings elon to heal, ellison famously chastise hewlett-packard for firing mark hurd. interesting, right? wells fargo, that stock is up today after the company agreed to pay $500 million to settle claims by u.s. states to create phony accounts. improper auto loan and mortgage

contract changes. two years ago, wells fargo paid 190 million to settle claims on same issues. paying out a lot of money. this time the dough will go to attorney generals to dole the money out to consumers. back to you. blake: gerri willis live on the floor. thanks. stocks are down for the year globally as china takes the title of world's worst market in 2018, losing $2.4 trillion. other nations struggling as well. is the u.s. poised to be on top by default? to fox news contributor phil flynn. phil, what do you make of that? >> i make of it, it is the best of times, it is the worst of times. it sounds dickensesque here today. we look at the stock market. we look at challenges we're seeing in the global economy. whether it be china or europe right now. the u.s. is still the best of the bunch. when your stock market is a lot bigger sometimes, the percentages look a lot bigger. there is a lot of concern.

but one thing we have to remember during all this market turmoil, when we look what is happening during the economy, it is the best of times. we've had the best economy we have had since the financial crisis of 2008. we're exploding over here. there does seem to be a disconnect between what is happening in the stock market and what is happening in some of the other markets on the outside. look at oil today, for example. oil has been under a lot of pressure here over the last couple of weeks, mainly because we're concerned about a global economic slow down. we get data again today, shows demand for oil was very, very strong. u.s. gasoline demand robust, heating demand, robust. really best of times, worst of times. in a weird way, i think the comparisons of the different economies in the globe right now, gives the u.s. a upper hand in the trade war. i think we'll get a deal in january that would be very positive for stocks. blake: that would be great.

we had one trader on the show yesterday, his theory what is happening oversees is on the downside. we're just starting our trend down. markets overseas might be the way to go. i know everyone has an opinion, but what would you make of that assessment? >> you know what? listen, what i have seen the way this market came back after looking like the world was going to fall to an end, that give me a lot of optimism maybe the bottom is in here. you will not rebound after a big selloff like we had yesterday and not have some solid optimism behind it. you have a lot of people who believe in the u.s. economy. they're looking at a lot of these stocks that have seen huge, 20% correction in bear market. there is opportunity. you know, yes, the fangs have been defanged. yes, we've seen turmoil but if you look at the big picture the overall fundamentals of the economy are good. in the u.s. i still think is the best in the world. blake: phil flynn, live on the floor of the cme. phil, thank you.

meanwhile president trump threatening to cut aid to central america if democrats do not agree to fund his demands of the border wall. this is a tweet he sent out darks a three-parter. honduras, guatemala, el salvador are doing nothing for the united states taking our money. a new caravan is forming in honduras, they are doing nothing about it. we will be cutting off all aid to these three, taking advantage of the u.s. for years. former deputy assistant to secretary mattis, amber smith. hi, amber. >> hi, blake. blake: we heard the threat from the president before. why should we believe it this time? >> what we saw from the president's tweets today, it is a negotiation tactic. he is fed up with the dysfunction that has come out of congress that resulted in this government shutdown. he wants his five billion dollars for the wall. i think that he is, put it this way, congress approved $45 billion for the war in afghanistan in 2018. they refuse to give president

trump five billion dollars for a serious national security issue on our southern border. and so this is politics at its best inside of washington, d.c., where they're refusing to give the president what he wants, merely because it is his priority, it is something that he ran on. and they know that if they give that five billion dollars to the president, that he has secured his 2020 re-election. so that is why we're going to continue to see these roadblocks any way we can from congress. blake: what you talk about money, aid, that goes from the u.s., 180 million for el salvador, 180 million for hon due as, 250 million for guatemala, add it all up, it is $550 million a year, what does it mean if all or some of that would be taken away? >> well what the president wants for these nations receiving aid from the united states is their have to be a return for it. so the president really wants to see these nations step up when

it comes to the caravans and preventing them from continue to migrate up through central america and many bping a problem at border with the cpb. we have seen everything going on with the previous caravans and border security. blake: right. >> he says, you want to be receiving aid from the united states? you're going to have to help us out and when immigrants are, when these migrants are coming up through their countries you will have to hold them in place for us, instead of allowing them to pass through. blake: amber, just to pivot for a second, you know jim mattis very well. he is only on the job for a couple more days. you used to work for him. i'm wondering what you made of his letter to president trump and where the defense department goes from here? >> well secretary mattis served honorably not only in uniform but then as you know, as secretary of defense. he did a fantastic job. two years of serving the

president and the american people in the trump administration. as you know the troops love him. it was an honor to work for him. the military is very resilient when it comes to any sort of this political turnover. so we're not going to see any sort of disruption from that. and i just think that, any political appointee, i was a political appointee, you serve at the pleasure of the president. it is an honor to serve your country. at some point there is time for to you move on. so i think, hopefully we'll get secretary shanahan is stepping up to be the acting secretary of defense. he will do a great job in the acting role so we shall see. blake: we shall see indeed. amber smith. thanks for joining us. meantime wild swings spooking young investors? we'll take a look why some millenials are opting out of the market. oh, by the way, some on this very show have said about those millenials and the reaction on the other side of the break. having control over me.

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>> who want free college and all other loans forgiven, you're the ones they're angry at. >> selfies folks. >> lack of supply of them to there is lack of appreciation of work ethic, lack of skills, inability to work independently and inability to take criticism. >> so many of them are pampered, loser morons. >> my fear they will go from helicopter parents who did everything for them, and they're leaning now towards bernie sanders who is promising big government and welfare state that will do everything for them. blake: are you talking about me? you talking about us? you know, neil, does this segment, it is great, "bitter boomers." they come on the show every friday around this time. they give their thoughts on millenials, how this generation you heard a little bit of it. now millenials are in the chair today. we're bringing in other millenials. kristina partsinevelos,

millenial politics founder, nathan ruben. we are the lazy ones, huh? >> i know. blake: what about our age, market handed off to us, i think we did pretty good last 10 years. >> we're responsible for absolutely everything out there. all the corporate debt, government debt is millenials fault. realistically we do remember the 2008 recession. we're fully aware of what is going on in the markets. doing things differently than the previous generations. i don't think all the blame has to be put on youngers, especially talking about trading. blake: nathan what about that? a lot of this millenial generation graduated from college and market was crashing, economy was terrible, and since then has run with it. >> i think that is exactly right. i think i agree with what you were saying. essentially, the unemployment rate is low but the under employment rate is high. millenials are going to college. they're getting advanced degrees and they're coming out and

finding a very competitive world compared to the world of baby boomers and the silent generation. a lot of those folks were able to enter one career, stay with one company, 20 or 30 years come out with pensions. this is different world. we're living in a gig economy. millenials are just trying to stay above water. this idea why aren't millenials are not investing in the market. a lot of millenials don't have savings. they have a student debt and have to pay that every month. blake: ali? >> i think millenials would take different perspective, invest in themselves. for instance, this, this is my way of investing in myself. i go out to mexico. i get raw gold materials. i come to the united states. i manufacture, i market, i sell. i go to the post office. i ship these things out myself. that is pure capitalism working for me. i think that is something that millenials need to, you know, i wish they would invest in themselves a little bit more. blake: do you still have fears

what happens, a decade ago whether or not this could creep back in next year, over the next two years? it is fresh on the minds of a lot of folks, especially with the "r" word, many people dropping the recession word? >> i don't think millenials have really ever been through a true recession, especially coming from a background like i have where cuban, i have a cuban heritage and i have grandparents that came to this country on a socialist, communist, you know, escaping that regime. they do not understand what a recession is, i don't believe. i just don't. blake: you were telling me yesterday, you're still paying off student loans. that is this generation? >> i fit every stereotype you can make about the millenial. not that i'm living in my parent's basement. i don't have a car. i don't own property. i cover financial news i love it. some millenials are investing. some taking entrepreneurial

route, some following markets and investing. some taking a step further, doing coding for algorithms we complain about. i tell friend all the time, i do some people, young generation are following headlines. pot stocks, something that comes up quite often, something new and fresh, cannabis. the big tech ones often in the news. we constantly use apple every single day. we constantly use instagram as part of facebook. these are topics that do come up. millenials are paying attention from what i've seen. >> i think i agree with that to an extent but i want to come back to the idea that millenials haven't experience ad recession. i think effects recession are being felt especially entry level folks. i write about this in my book, from boomer to millenial. we came of age during the longest running war ever in the united states history with the war in iraq and war in afghanistan. we witnessed wall street banks

basically gamble with people's life savings to ship out subprime mortgages, to watching the stock market crash and burn. then these savings that our parents and our grandparents really worked for their entire lives evaporate overnight. no one in wall street financial industry was held truly accountable. when you look how millenials witnessed this happening, granted they may have been a little young, i was in high school during that time. but as you come out the other side you start to wonder, what can we do differently? did anything really change? nothing really did. all those elements to the 2007, 2018, financial crisis they're still bubbling under the surface. millenials are saying i don't know if i want to be a part of it. >> accountability is a huge factor. you're 100% right with a lot of companies. we see that every single company with the data breaches you can apply that across the board. when it comes to regulation, accountability, there is still a lot of room for improvement. blake: i was going to say, technology companies started by

people in their now 30s. >> right, yeah. facebook, younger generation is fueling snapchat, even though the stock is at an all-time low now? we contributed to a lot of growth of these companies. looking forward, whole foods, meal kit programs like blue apron even though that is not doing very well. there is whole lot of attitudes catering to the change in taste. there is opportunity there as well. blake: ali, a last question, is this a good time to take chances considering so much uncertainty into next year and we're at or close to the high in the markets and economy is doing well? >> absolutely. you have to take a chance. i come from a background of taking chances, otherwise i wouldn't be here today. yeah, absolutely. i think the best investment is yourself always. blake: alley, nathan, k part, appreciate you being here. can you believe they said that about us? >> charlie brady was rocker in

the day. party at thissed all the time. he was just like us back then. blake: we love them though. they love us too. meantime global debt at dangerous levels with so nines of slowing down. the warning you heard here first after this. (engaging uptempo music)

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♪ blake: new signs the housing boom could potentially be ending as u.s. pending home sales fall to a four-year low. former fannie mae executive, tim ruud, whether rising interest rates are impacting the housing market. hi, tim. >> blake, how are you? blake: doing well. so yet another reading in which it was down, home sales, from the past month down .7%. i guess the question is, whether we figure out if this is the top or not? if this is the top, does the downward cycle look like a steep downward dive or is this just going to be a plod along for a couple of years? >> that is a good question. what you saw in 2018 is obviously a softening of the market. you can't have it go up six or 7% a year. that is not a healthy market. couple factors, interest rate was one of them. if you look come .ing factors, appreciation of 5% plus interest rates going up 1%, cost ever

monthly median basis is 20% higher. that is combination as millenial you can probably attest, there is fatigue factor, burnout factor folks chasing this market a long time. blake: you bring up a good point. talking about 20% higher, someone trying to trade up in a home, not just first-time homebuyers, got the first house, you might want something more, if you at a house slightly more but mortgage rates are up slightly more as well, that payment might not be a couple hundred bucks a month more. it might be more 1000 bucks a month more, whatever range you're in and that might put you out of it? >> that is certainly case. you take out the ladder of homeownership. if you don't get people opportunity to get on the ground floor of new home, you have opportunity to be a buyer. you have this obsolescence of the inventory, too far out, too much work, overpriced or you're kind of stuck. two things will probably happen

in 2019, the pace of appreciation will slow. that is good. you can see incomes start to catch up to the rate of appreciation of the also the slower pace of sales, allows for inventory to to rebuild to get to a more normal housing market. blake: i was looking at interest rates a while ago, 4.3%, for 30 year mortgage. basically start of 2014 is where we'll be at start of 2019. five years there have been ups and downs, summer of 2016 it was 3 1/2% or maybe lower if you got a great deal. i'm wondering over the next five years, might we see the dip to the downside like we saw over the last five years, downside of 4 1/2%? or is it going to be a pop to the upside on that? >> i think what you'll see, one of the unavoidable things, the great things of the housing market is, you didn't see a lot of speculation over last few years in terms of building. builders are just building to the meet demand. there is great tailwind, largest

cohort of millenials hitting 29 years old in 2019, coming 2020, key demographic of 30-year-old, prime home buying age for new homebuyers. that is an unavoidable thing. 10 or 15 million new households created. americans have a bias towards living indoors. i'm optimistic. blake: what about, what about though the high-end of the market, right? you talked about how higher prices, higher rates, could be 20% more, is that, how big of a damper is put on those say, million dollar plus homes? >> that is a great question. you really saw a lot of softness 2018, coastal lands, coastal cities million above. blake: it is weird, not weird but telling when you look at case-shiller numbers earlier this week, whenever they came out there, is clear distinction on property values on the east coast and the west coast where they are going up significantly

higher. >> yeah. what you're seeing is, inventory levels of about a million dollar property and above is over 10 months of inventory whereas that 200,000 and below, it is anemic. less than three months, 3 1/2 months of inventory. the demand is still there on the low end, but seeing the top end softening. that is bringing down the average. blake: very interesting, we'll see what happens going forward. tim rood, thanks for joining us. >> thanks, blake. blake: the world has never had as much debt whether housing, government, credit cards, $250 trillion when you add it up all over the globe. that is not stopping bernie sanders and other 2020 challengers on the left, pushing for more government handouts. cns news editor terry jeffrey. hi, terry. >> good to see you. blake: it is stunning number, 250 trillion from across the globe. one through real quick, biggest borrowers, u.s., china,

eurozone, japan. 2/3 of the world household debt held in those countries. 3/4 of the corporate debt, government debt, your take away from that is what? >> the scary part, our government is planning in the coming years to borrow more and more money. white house office of management and budget, they're planning, they're planning having deficit of $900 billion or more. government is 250 trillion-dollars of debt nationwide, our government is planning to go out in the debt market to convince people to invest in the government of the united states. and you're just talking about home mortgage rates going up. we've seen, very, very low historical rates on the debt of the united states government. average is 2.4% right now. so back in 2007, it was more, twice that. we'll see interest rates go up as we move into the future of the u.s. government, is

continually going out, trying to find people, many foreign entities to invest in our debt for our ever-growing government. blake: we have the debt calculator. let's put that up on the screen. it is pretty shocking always when you look at it. approaching $22 trillion. $21.9 trillion of u.s. debt. that is about 66 grand a person. debt per taxpayer, triple that, nearly $187,000. when you look at some of the 2020 democratic challengers talking about, medicare for all, that possibility is not even factored into those numbers. >> no, it's not. everybody is thinking about the government in shut down, at least in partial shut down. the treasury department has not been funded through an appropriations bill yet but treasury workers are at work right now because they collect the taxes from us and they spend the money and they borrow the money. even during the shut down, when they're not funded, the treasury is out there borrowing, spending

and taxing money. on wednesday they spent $17 billion just on wednesday, on social security benefits. blake: wow. >> another one of the big pates was medicare. another big one was medicare. another big one was medicaid. blake: entitlements, that are unsustainable that the calculations at this rate. terry, when you look at, you can focus on medicare for all as one possible, you know, way that the could potentially add, but when you look at administrations past, president bush 43 spent. president obama spent. president trump spent. and continues to plan on spending. if there is a democrat in the white house in 2020 or 2024, or whatever, it will be, they will spend then. so when does this end? >> you know, i regret to say that i think that rational prognosis we'll have a fiscal catastrophe before congress and a president actually fix what need to be fixed to solve the

debt problem because the debt problem is driven by social security, medicare and medicaid. and you're not going to find politicians who want to reform social security and medicare, when you have the baby boom generation retiring. blake: right. >> those baby boomers paid taxes all their lives to receive those benefits. so we put ourselves in a political box where the endgame is a financial catastrophe for our country. blake: terry jeffrey, appreciate it. thanks for your time. meantime as we head to break, look at the dow. pretty steady day on corner of wall and broad. more "cavuto: coast to coast" the next hour. hi, i'm joan lunden with a place for mom,

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together we'll make the right choice. blake: welcome back. i'm blake burman in for neil cavuto. hour number two. it's been an interesting week on the corner of wall and broad as we had historic negative christmas eve, historically positive post-christmas day. the close of the market yesterday. look what's going on right now. just about dead flat in the dow. when you look at the dow 30 stocks there, about half are up, half are down, most all of this just fractional at this point. to the former dallas fed adviser. where this goes from here. hi, danielle. >> how are you today, blake? blake: doing all right. this is what christmas week is supposed to look like with the market. mail it in and go home. this is what we somewhat expect after a wild week, i guess. >> well, historically speaking, this is a little bit more than what we probably expected going into the week.

these have been some really historic moves. the last hour of trading yesterday was biblical. i have never seen anything like it and i have been around markets for 30 years. i have to say, i'm almost happy that there's a very calm nature to the markets headed into this weekend, and investors might be a little worried that with another holiday coming up next week, that we might have a few more days of history to make before we close out the year. blake: yeah. i was meaning how flat it is today is what you expect going into the holiday. is this the calm before the storm? i hate the cliche but you almost wonder after the last few days what this eerie sense of calm might be telling us, or nothing at all. >> well, i think we have to pay attention to what little economic data we're getting. that's something also i think is really adding to the volatility, in addition to the fact we have very low volume, very low trading volume right now. but the government shutdown is also affecting the fact we're not getting economic data releases that we would normally have expected.

today, for example, we would have seen the advanced trade report, that might have fostered a few tweets out of the administration. we don't know. but we're getting very, very skinny data flow and that's making investors skittish as well. blake: is that skinny data flow, is that why we haven't really seen these gyrations? i'm not smart enough to understand algorithms and high frequency trading but it makes you wonder why there was so much action earlier this week and it looks, literally, 0.0% on the dow right now. >> very little for markets to key off of right now. very, very precious little for markets to key off of. they say pending home sales bad. chicago home manufacturing survey good. they don't know what to make of it. they're flat as a pancake. blake: as a former fed adviser, what did you think of what happened earlier this month? >> well, i was disappointed. you could only go back and forth so many times before you start to lose investors' confidence in

you. powell has moved around too much and i think investors right now are anxious to hear the next word out of his mouth to see if he can calm the markets. he was very adamant in saying that the balance sheet reduction which president trump had tweeted out the day before, stop shrinking the balance sheet by $50 billion a month, and powell came out of that press conference and was extremely adamant that it was on auto pilot and he kind of gave the attitude it wasn't up for negotiation. i think that that scared investors and added to the volatility we have seen coming into the very tail end of the year. i would point out that one of the things that also set markets off at the beginning of october is the share buy-back window for companies closes the beginning of october, it's going to close again at the beginning of january. so that could add further volatility even though i think right now, investors are craving calmness. blake: real briefly, as a former fed adviser, would you advise jay powell to sit down and talk with president trump or at this point, that's just optics and

unnecessary? >> i don't think it's optics at all. i think there's been too much that's gone on between the two gentlemen and it is time they sat down behind closed doors and had a meeting of the minds. i actually don't think they're as far apart as what we would think. i think it's time for them to meet, absolutely. blake: danielle demartino-booth, appreciate you joining us. have a good one. meantime, speaking of the white house and capitol hill, day seven of the government shutdown and the president is threatening to shut down the southern border. hillary vaughn has the latest from the white house. hi, hillary. reporter: well, things are escalating quickly here at the white house but yesterday lawmakers were on capitol hill for a total of 6:36 before gavelling out and going home and now the white house is saying that democrats are the ones walking away and shutting down negotiations to cut a deal they say would reopen the government. >> i can't understand the folks from heavily democrat areas who around this area are home, not talking to them. we made an offer last saturday night, they told us they would

get back to us by the end of the week. they got back to us last night and said we're leaving, that's it, no more discussion. discussions have broken down. we expect this to go on for awhile. reporter: the president this morning raising the stakes, threatening to not only keep federal workers in limbo indefinitely over a budget deal but also says he may shut down the border and call off trade agreements with mexico, tweeting i would consider closing the southern border, a profit-making operation. we build a wall or close the southern border. bring our car industry back into the united states where it belongs, go back to pre-nafta before so many of our companies and jobs were so foolishly sent to mexico. either we build, finish the wall or we close the border. but democrats are denying that they aren't willing to work with the white house. pelosi's spokesman said they offered republicans three paths to end the shutdown that funded border security, minus the wall. >> i think it's an embarrassment any time the government shuts down, and this being no exception. we ought to work at it until we

get to an agreement or a majority say yes. and i think we had that, until the president -- reporter: one thing is clear. the shutdown isn't scaring either side into compromising any time soon and mulvaney telling us this morning he thinks this isn't about the wall at all. he thinks this is about pelosi trying to secure her speakership on january 3rd. blake? blake: hillary vaughn live at the white house, thanks. so are all these d.c. issues adding to wall street angst or might we see that angst coming up in a couple weeks' time? to center for freedom and prosperity chairman, dan mitchell. hi, dan. >> how are you? blake: doing all right. how long can we let this thing go on before -- not we, congress, before the rest of the country sees what's going on, wall street sees what's going on and start to get worried about it? >> i don't think wall street worries at all about the government shutdown. it's basically just a handful of the non-essential departments that are staying home and frankly, they're non-essential.

wall street does worry, though, about the federal reserve, monetary policy, the normalization, what to do about all the easy money financial markets have been hooked on, and i guarantee you, financial markets will worry a lot if they think trump is serious about cutting off trade with mexico. blake: it might be deemed non-essential employees but they are essential, there's a reason why they're working and why they're hired by the federal government, right? >> there is not a single reason why we should have a department of education, a department of housing and urban development. there are so many parts of the federal government -- blake: in this case you are talking about the state department, hud, i could go down the list, dhs, that this has affected and thousands, hundreds of thousands of employees there. >> and the ones that are actually essential are doing something at least theoretically valuable. they're still on the job, just in effect going to have delayed pay. even the ones that are staying home are going to get all their pay in full.

now, it's not, what's the old phrase, this is not the way to run a railroad? it's obviously a sign of dysfunction in washington. i personally wish trump was having a big fight with congress about trying to control spending. instead he's having a fight asking that they spend more. he's not even proposing any offsets for his wall. so i don't think there are any good guys in this fight right now. but again, the shutdown fight is irrelevant virtually to the econo economy. the threats to trade are enormous. i hope and pray trump is simply threatening mexican trade in order to try to bully schumer and pelosi. blake: i want to ask about that because it's a pretty big threat. today he said shutting down the border would be quote, a profit-making operation. would it? >> he has zero understanding of trade. if i stop going to the grocery store, i would no longer have a trade deficit with my grocery store. i would starve to death or maybe try to grow tomatoes in my backyard which would mean i would starve to death a little bit slower. trade is good for people.

it's voluntary. nobody engages in trade either on the consumer or business side unless it's in their self-interest. i think trump is just profoundly, profoundly deeply wrong on trade. he just doesn't understand it. blake: real briefly, because i know tax cuts are your lane as well. when americans start filing their taxes here in a couple weeks, you think they're going to, because the polling shows they didn't really like this tax law, think they might change their mind? >> to the extent that people say they are getting more take-home pay which presumably they already saw in their paychecks, to the extent the job market is strong, hopefully americans understand that the tax cut is good. now, it's good because it's lowering marginal tax rates on productive behavior. it's not good because we have more money in our pocket. it's all about increasing pre-tax pay, not necessarily about the post-tax pay, which is good. everybody should be happy about having more money in their

pocket. blake: but i wonder real quick, if you worry that it gets dwarfed by trade, these other threats, the shutdown, et cetera, because republicans wanted to campaign on this this past november and didn't, because there were so many other headlines out there. >> that's exactly right. there are lots of things that affect the economy, lots of things dominate the news cycle. i'm very happy about the lower corporate tax rate and some of the other provisions that trump got through. but if that's this good, the protectionism is this bad. that's the danger, is that if the economy goes south, people might blame the tax reform when they should be blaming the fed or should be blaming the protectionism. blake: dan mitchell, have to leave it there. thank you. tech shares way off their highs, as you know. will we see another race for $1 trillion sooner than we think? that's on the other side. hi i'm joan lunden.

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what do you look for i want free access to research. yep, td ameritrade's got that. free access to every platform. yeah, that too. i don't want any trade minimums. yeah, i totally agree, they don't have any of those. i want to know what i'm paying upfront. yes, absolutely. do you just say yes to everything? hm. well i say no to kale. mm. yeah, they say if you blanch it it's better, but that seems like a lot of work. no hidden fees. no platform fees. no trade minimums. and yes, it's all at one low price. td ameritrade. ♪ blake: well, the deadline to buy sears out of bankruptcy is only just hours away at this point. a big question as to whether or not that company will survive. jeff flock is outside of sears in chicago with more. hi, jeff. reporter: hi, blake. cold day in chicago, for everybody, but maybe more so for sears. this is the last sears store to

be open in chicago, shut now. there are no sears left in chicago. 4:00 p.m. is the deadline to submit bids to try and keep this company afloat. at this point, the only one we know about, and it's not an official bid yet, we are told is the $4.2 billion bid by the former ceo of sears, eddie lampert, the former hedge fund genius. not so much a genius when it comes to retail, apparently. he's got a $4.6 billion bid and if that bid doesn't really come through and none others come through, then we're talking liquidation of sears properties and other assets, including diehard batteries, kenmore appliances and real estate. here, the deal on this piece of real estate, that's a sears automotive center, or was a sears automotive center here, so huge piece of real estate. you would think this is worth a lot of money. this has already been liquidated. it was part of the 250 sears properties that were liquidated by sears and sold to the real

estate investment trust that eddie lampert is the chairman of, leading to some critics charging that lampert just looted sears. he potentially could be sued if this goes to liquidation and the creditors say listen, we think there's evidence this guy mismanaged the company, they could take him to court. if his bid is accepted, that bid would preclude any suits against lampert. so the clock is ticking here. as i said, it's 4:00 p.m. i don't even have my watch on. 4:00 p.m. what is it there? i don't know what time it is. blake: 12:15 by you. reporter: the clock is ticking. blake: just a few hours left. reporter: 4:00 p.m. eastern. just a few hours left. blake: two hours, 45 minutes. remarkable to see that could be what is coming to sears. jeff flock in chicago, thank you. retail analyst hitha herzog now on if this is a failure on

sears' part or a warning sign for all retailers. how are you? >> i'm great. blake: pretty remarkable when you see jeff standing there in the middle of a massive sears that had already been liquidated and a sears on the other side in which there was one car outside. >> this has been happening for awhile now. i think about when i started covering retail in around 2011, when the first wave of the sears stores started closing down. so this has been a long time coming. i'm shocked that it took this long, to be honest. but there are a lot of assets they need to liquidate, including the real estate holdings. when you think about a lot of these sears have been anchors in malls, what i mean by that, it's the store you go to all the time. sears and j.c. penney. now we will probably start seeing surgical centers, gyms, even, maybe even play stations or -- blake: i think about the sears near me, outside of washington, d.c. in maryland, on the other side of the border, it's in a

mall. it's in a big mall there that has a nordstrom, massive food court. you take the sears out, i'm not sure a gym could go in that spot. there's few things at this point that can really fit, unless they really chop that up, et cetera. it's a tough game. >> you would be surprised with all the cross-fitters all excited about going to the gym. the bigger, the better, right? blake: a gym is one example. the point being these are big spaces and retail is having trouble to begin with. >> i think that was part of the problem. we have giant spaces with huge amounts of square footage. a lot of what is happening in retail is that they are getting smaller, it's getting consolidated. you're not seeing gigantic super stores anymore. you are seeing popup stores all around different parts of the country and here in new york, on the streets. also, online shopping, i think that's part of the problem. sears didn't adapt to that. paypal came out with a study, 47% of people in the united states have been spending their shopping online, especially

during the holidays. not only through that but through their mobile devices, through their phones and ipads and computers. blake: you saw jeff out there. it's cold in chicago. >> people don't want to get in their cars and drive to the stores. blake: go to the laptop, shop for myself, my wife, the kids, just like that. if i want to go in the store, it's there. get it to my door and it doesn't fit my kid, he's grown too big, i go return it. >> sears refused to get on board with that. so you have stores like amazon trumping that and you have eddie lampert that would not as ceo have the retailer adapt to the changing space of retail. blake: is amazon, it is the biggest game in town at this point, but is that the future then for 10, 15, 20, 30 years? 20 years ago, you never would have talked about sears going gone. >> no. amazon, yes, i think right now, is the biggest game in retail right now.

however, as these retailers adapt and as their strategies increase and they have newer ceos come in that really understand what is going on, i think at some point, when we see stores like walmart, for example, really ramping up their online shopping offerings, especially target, who spends a lot of money trying to ramp up their online ability for people to come and shop there, a lot of expense for target. it had an impact on their earnings but i think that's what's driving people to shop online. blake: adapt or die, right? hitha herzog, appreciate it. let's take a look at oil. it's been a volatile week for oil as well. well off 18-month lows following an interesting week of trading. today, up about a percent and a half to $45.37 a barrel. more after the break. i'm ken jacobus, i'm the owner of good start packaging. we distribute environmentally-friendly packaging for restaurants. and we've grown substantially. so i switched to the spark cash card from capital one.

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since its highs. the drop led by apple, amazon, microsoft and alphabet. some of the biggest names in the game. market watcher michael robinson says we can see $1 trillion valuations again soon. i guess the question is, what is soon? and for who? >> soon will be a little longer than i would have thought middle of december. you're talking for microsoft to get back to trillion, about a 30% gain in the stock price as of today or sorry, in the market cap as of today. i doubt they will do that in a year. it will more likely be about two years out. blake: pretty long time. you're looking at the market caps, they are all bunched up between call it 7.25 and 775. that's a long way to run. >> you are talking 15% a year. i would take that on just about anything. blake: they were running hotter than that for a long time.

i guess you think it will sort of stabilize? >> that's what we're looking for. blake, that will be the most important thing. i have never tried to call a market bottom. i know i was really optimistic yesterday. follow through when the market reversed from being down sharply to being up, all three major indexes positive so it was a good follow-through day. no one can call the absolute bottom. it's a massive disconnect with the stock market. the economy is fundamentally healthy and has been driven more by fear than anything else along with programatic trading. jerome powell did not do a great job at that press conference and you saw what happened during his press conference, the market sold off. so we do have a lot of uncertainty and fear. but beneath that, the economy is overall fundamentally strong. i don't see a recession in 2019. blake: what do you make of amazon? we were just showing it there. the reason i ask is because we had strong holiday sales numbers and then you see what's going on with sears. that company is the complete opposite of sears at this point. >> amazon is an awesome company.

i have been a big booster of amazon for many, many years, back when they were losing money. i said wait until they start making money, it will be hand over fist and that's what happened. here's a perfect example. just yesterday, my coffee carafe broke. i went to the amazon site, had it delivered to me last night at 7:00 so i could make a fresh pot this morning. you can't get that kind of service from sears. as you said, just before the break, blake, adapt or die. sears did not do a good job. look at walmart. walmart had a 44% increase in e-commerce sales in the second quarter of this year. that's a phenomenal turnaround. they get it. they have gotten with the program. if you don't get it, an e-commerce program, mobile commerce and those kind of transactions, you will get left in the dust unless you are a small niche player in a particular local market where people have to go to your store. otherwise, you have got to have some sort of online presence. there's really no excuse not to. with shopify, powering a lot of

web sites, i'm sorry, e-commerce for amazon for thousands of small companies all over the united states, there's really no excuse not to have a good online presence right now. blake: absolutely. that's what we're seeing with so many of these companies across the board. michael robinson, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> thank you. blake: tesla's stock, speaking of a tech company, jumping after naming oracle founder larry ellison and walgreen senior executive kathleen wilson-thompson to its board today. this of course part of the settlement with the s.e.c. to market watch tech editor jeremy owens on what this means for elon musk going forward. hi, jeremy. >> thanks for having me. blake: what do you make of this decision from tesla announced earlier today? >> this is definitely tesla still trying to live up to the letter of the s.e.c. without living up to the severity of pi. tesla was supposed to bring in people to act as a counterbalance to elon musk.

instead they get larry ellison who said don't listen to the doubters, just push ahead. he was at the first meeting between the saudis and elon. this is a buddy, a guy invested in tesla, another person who will tell elon to do what he wants to do because he's the founder and he gets to do it. instead of saying maybe that's not a good idea. blake: what's kathleen wilson-thompson? >> it's really good to have somebody with h.r. experience on that board. maybe she can tell elon there's a reason for a 40-hour work week. they have had issues with how they deal with employees. having that kind of knowledge on the board is good. that was a good choice. it's a question of if elon will listen to her. if the rest of the board will listen to her. blake: they still have a ways to go to name people to the board as part of the s.e.c. settlement, this is only halfway or so done? >> no, no, they announced a new independent chair and now they have these two. i'm unclear if they need to add one more, because they brought in somebody but i think this is going to live up to that part of

the settlement. blake: okay. elon musk, that "60 minutes" interview, i guess the question is how much will this change things the way they work at tesla, because he told lesley staal i'm the largest shareholder in the company and i can just call for a shareholder vote and get done anything that i want. he went on to later clarify saying that cbs should have said provided that i have the support of shareholders. the bottom line is elon musk feels pretty good about where he stands right now with tesla, right? >> oh, for sure. the rest of the board is still, steve is on leave. his brother, right, all the shareholders that are really for elon musk and the board is a bunch of yes-men mostly that will do whatever elon wants. he still has control of that company and will do whatever he wants. that's a problem in silicon valley, giving the founder all of the control and letting him run it no matter if he's breaking rules or norms or anything else, so he will continue to go down that path as far as i see.

blake: the infamous tweet, funding secured, you think tesla gets to 420 ever, and if so, when? >> it's possible. tesla has to continue showing profits. they have one profitable quarter. now they have another quarter where they're really pushing to sell cars before the federal tax credit expires for them or starts expiring for them. so they're going to have to show another quarter of profit, another quarter of profit, another quarter of profit. this is becoming more of a long-term play instead of short-term but they have to do it quarter after quarter after quarter and prove they can continue to be profitable. blake: good day for tesla. good year as well, up about 6% on the year. jeremy owens, appreciate your time. thank you. >> thanks for having me. blake: home depot on track to finish the year in the red for the first time since 2008. bad sign for housing? up next.

blake: welcome back. just a few months away, believe it or not, from the first democratic debate.

looking ahead to 2020. money's going to be pouring in, with so many candidates expected who is worth betting on? the former north carolina democratic congressman brad miller. hey, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. blake: how many candidates are you expecting? there's talk of 30 or 40 even, maybe. >> well, those who are at all serious would probably be 20 or 30. so that's a lot. those who have held a consequential office in the past or have serious money behind them. blake: one of the narratives last go-round when republicans were going through it, when they were 18, 19, whatever the number was, was that it was chaos within the republican party. can you flip that on the democrats this time? >> oh, i think it will actually be a better primary for democrats than 2016 was. 2016, hillary clinton was the anointed candidate. the committee had met, she was going to be the nominee, and for

a lot of folks who already thought that the clinton campaign was the borg, it all sounded like resistance was futile. it set her up to be the establishment candidate in a year when voters wanted change. i think a pretty wide open contested primary's a better thing for democrats than 2016 was. blake: the establishment candidate in this time, if he decides to run, would be joe biden. want to show you a poll from f suffolk university which gave the pulse of democrats and independents. it was 59% of democrats and independents said they would want someone new, entirely new, as their top choice, and the second choice or how excited they were, really, that 59%, would be excited for someone entirely new, and next was 53% excited for joe biden. how can it be that democrats and independents would be excited for someone new and excited for someone who won their first office four decades ago? it doesn't really seem to make

sense. >> no. the polls at this point aren't going to mean much. if you tell someone, the average voter at least, there may be somebody yet to get into the field who could be just perfect, they are going to say let me hold out for that. but when faced with the real choices, it's going to narrow it down fairly quickly. biden is best known with some credibility, certainly he's well-liked among democrats. that does not mean he will emerge as the nominee if he does, in fact, get in. blake: what do you think happened to bernie sanders? in that exact same poll, more people thought that bernie sanders shouldn't run than would be excited if he did. that seems like an awfully quick turnaround. >> well, he's not in the position he was in 2016, when he was the insurgent candidate and had that to himself just as hillary clinton had to herself the establishment. he's now going to have to compete with several other candidates. both were kind of the idealogical base, he will obviously have to compete with senator warren, maybe with

sherrod brown and maybe others and also, as the outsider candidate, he will have competition as well. but he certainly starts from at least the second best position. blake: competition's going to be one of the names, i guess, of all of this, what democrats will have to go through over here through 2019 if they want to be the next president of the united states. congressman, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. blake: there is a government shutdown, partial government shutdown affecting some 25% of the federal government. coming up next, one key lawmaker in the middle of it all who said as recently as last week that this is a hill worth dying on. does he still feel that way this week?

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blake: welcome back. one of the big questions going forward is how deep into the new year are republicans willing to push for the border wall, as there is a partial government shutdown now, 25% of the federal government on day seven. the north carolina republican congressman mark walker, who is also the incoming gop conference vice-chair, thanks for joining us. >> thanks, blake. blake: i remember hearing you talk about this last week before there was a shutdown saying the president shouldn't sign anything unless he gets money

for his border wall, as you put it, it's a hill worth dying on. still feel that way now that we are about to enter week two? >> i'm no less convinced this is a huge part of what we need to do fulfilling a promise that we have made to the american people. you know, this was something that didn't used to be a partisan issue. in fact, just four years ago, all 54 democratic senators voted for $46 billion that included 700 miles of either some kind of structure, fencing or wall. i hate this being used now as a political issue. blake: i wonder how many, there are 800,000 federal employees that this will affect. any in your district, your home state, and does that weigh on your mind? >> any time there's something that would put any person, specifically a federal employee, being a representative of those employees, yes, it does. but the reason that it's very important to draw the line is because of not just the human component but also the economic. we spend $19 billion a year for

interior enforcement. the negotiating part of this process, what we submitted chuck schumer this past saturday was a compromise, $2.5 billion with $2.1 billion going for some kind of border structure. we haven't heard an official word back to us yet but it seems like they're continuing to deny that. now, if you put that into an overall budget context, $40 billion is 1% of our federal budget. 2.5 billion is one-tenth of 1%. we need to do this, whether it's the economic portion or the human suffering as well. blake: correct me if i'm wrong but it sounds like this is how it's going to go over the next week or so. the new congress will be sworn in january 3rd. that means democratically controlled house of representatives. nancy pelosi and the dems in the house will pass some sort of spending bill that will turn the government lights back open with no border wall money, then that will put the onus on the republican-controlled senate to potentially pass that, oh, by the way, just a couple weeks

ago, they passed a bill that would do essentially just that. so when does this stalemate end? >> there's two schools of thought. you are exactly right, is there enough senate votes to be able to push through what nancy pelosi wants to do when it comes to this spending bill? i don't think so. even if it did, the president we believe would veto it. but i believe -- blake: but the senate did pass something similar to it, though, last week, ten days ago, give or take. >> yeah, but the winds of washington change constantly. that's one of the things i have learned in my four years in d.c. i believe the senate pushes back, forcing the democrats to come to the table to fulfill promises they have already made to the american people. blake: i think there's been a little bit of a shift here, at least strategy among republicans. i want to play something that mick mulvaney said earlier this morning from the white house. watch here. i will get your reaction on the other side. >> the democrats have simply shut down the discussion. they did not even counter us. they left town and i think the reason they did is because nancy pelosi in fairness does not have the votes for the speakership yet.

she cannot be seen by her party as being weak on negotiating with donald trump so we fully expect that until she is elected speaker and has locked that vote up, we don't expect to hear from the democrats again. they told us last night they were not countering our last offer. blake: it seems, congressman, like republicans are trying to put the onus here on nancy pelosi but wasn't it president trump just two weeks ago sitting next to nancy pelosi who said if i don't get money for the wall, i will take the mantle on this shutdown? >> i believe it is very important to lay out strong positions on this, but since that time, we went back to the table, we did our work, we got it through the house which now depends on whether chuck schumer wants to do this. he's correct, nancy wants no part of this. she has to keep the furthest left progressive wing of her base in line for her to win back speaker of the house. if she makes any move before that it would put that in jeopardy which is a huge problem for many of this, because you are playing politics with people's lives. i think of the legal immigrant working for the newburn police

department who was killed on christmas day leaving a young wife and 5 month old son, killed by an illegal immigrant. we can't be playing politics here. and it's not just illegals. we are talking about drugs. enough fentanyl last year alone was seized by border and i.c.e. agents to kill every human being in north america. the human trafficking, illegal drug use, this is something that should have been acted a long time ago when republicans and democrats both agreed on it. unfortunately, it's become a political football now. blake: congressman, last question to you. today, december 28th, federal employees get their paychecks. that includes the 800,000 who the shutdown now impacts. the next paycheck comes january 11th. is that really the potential inflection point here, that if government workers start missing paychecks on january 11th, this could really get serious one way or another? >> i think it's a huge factor in all of this, but i cannot sit here and tell you it's the only factor. securing the border, protecting the american people, honoring the very first oath that nancy pelosi and i will take next week.

blake: congressman walker, appreciate your time on this friday. have a nice weekend, happy new year. see you in washington with the shutdown, it appears. thanks. now to the "wall street journal" editorial board editor on if republicans are taking a risk by taking this stand. what do you make of that? >> well, i think congressman walker said a couple interesting things. one, if i heard him correctly, he said they were proposing to spend $2 billion on whatever it is, the wall, the fence. now, earlier today, mick mulvaney put out the parameters for this. $1.3 billion which has kind of been the senate proposal, then $5 billion, the republicans wanted coming out of the house. big gap in between that. but if the republicans are now talking about something in between $2 billion, the battle then i think becomes over semantics. the president wants a wall but i think he's right that probably the democrats ultimately want to be doing something about border

security and $2 billion might solve the problem. blake: but border security and a wall or a fence or steel slats or picket fence, whatever you want to call it, democrats at this point are offering this. so whether you go 1.3, 1.6, 2 billion, at this point they are saying nada. >> this is like scorpions in a bottle at the moment. i think basically what's happening is political. democrats feel they are gaining a lot of political ground against the president, who as you noted, did say publicly on television in a meeting with nancy pelosi and chuck schumer, i will take responsibility for closing the government, i will take the mantle. now he's tweeting today that he may shut down everything, the border, maybe cancel nafta, cancel aid to the hondurans and guatemalans. the president is taking responsibility -- the democrats seem to believe he is the one and the republicans are getting blamed by the public for this impasse. blake: if it comes down to some sort of compromise in just call

it $1 billion range, 1.3, 1.6, somewhere in there, the president would say what? because it's not his five or 25, and it would be chalked up as a loss. >> well, i'm not sure the president is seeing this as a loss. i believe the president, he's both got his eye on getting this thing done on the border. he also has his eye on, believe it or not, his re-election campaign. and the president believes that this stand that he's taken against doing anything down there, for doing anything down there, is appealing to the core trump supporters out there who he is trying to solidify and i understand everyone says it's only 30% or 35% of the electorate but the president is determined to hold on to those people just as he did in the campaign rallies. blake: who's right that it is a message that is successful because they gained seats in the senate, or it is a losing message because democrats flipped the house? >> i think --

blake: this was the message from the president, you know, into november. >> i understand that. i think for someone like senate majority leader mitch mcconnell, he's got a dilemma here between trying to protect republicans and trying to protect the president's priorities. i believe the president believes that his interests are primary here, and he's going to do what is right for him, both in terms of policy and in terms of politics. if the republicans want to come along with that, that is up to them. blake: i always say, listen to what the president says, because he talked about a lot of this on the campaign trail. he's doing a lot of what he said. some of it, he's tried, it's been successful and unsuccessful. i'm not going to go down the checks and minuses but when you talk about shutting down the southern border, is this something for real that we should listen to the president on, or is this just kind of, you know, maybe talk and a leverage point? >> you know, this is clearly the president's negotiating strategy. he feels that the system, the swamp, won't budge, the the sst

quo and the only way you can make it move is by throwing down markers like this. i have a lot of sympathy for that idea. the question is whether that will work. bear in mind, the president has never in the first two years had to negotiate anything big with the democrats, right? the tax bill, deregulation, that was all done with the republican party with no democratic participation. now he's got to deal with nancy pelosi and we are going to see whether the president's negotiating model is successful. blake: some said this is like a movie, what we are watching in washington, d.c. >> every hour. blake: every hour it changes. dan, thanks. appreciate it. speaking of movies, media stocks aren't revelling in a record box office year. the numbers have been absolutely remarkable for many of these companies, at least when you look at box office stats. we will take a look into it after the break. brighthouse financial allow you to take advantage of growth opportunities with a level of protection in down markets. so you can be less concerned about your retirement savings. talk with your advisor about shield℠ annuities

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. . blake: wish we were on air 12 seconds ago. you would see the dow at 0.0%. it was quite literally, 0.0. completely unchanged. at moment, a 11-point move. the big story is a pretty flat day after an absolutely wild week of historic gains. anything can happen in final hours of trading. make sure you stick with us next couple hours. i'm on "after the bell," 4:00 eastern, see you then. till then, 2018 may have been a record-setting year for the box office. media stocks have been

struggling this year. kim serafin on latest what is in store for the box office and 2019. >> how are you. blake: dough -- domestically up 7%. internationally up 3%. >> four millions over a billion worldwide is amazing. domestically driven by superhero movies and spin-offs and see equals. but that's okay, it drove people into the theater. it made movies a big event. there was a lot of anticipation. here in america, you had, north america, rather, you had the black panther, obviously the number one movie, huge box office. it was cultural moment. people went to see "black panther" for cultural reasons. that drove people. "the avengers" and "incredibles"

ii. blake: it could rack up to be a 100-dollar night or close to it. this is this sign of a healthy economy? >> also it says are good movies people want to see. you can watch amazon or streaming, you can go see them. there is the superhero movies, sequels. "jurassic world" people wanted to see. "mission: impossible". department matter that i have it at home. i want that movie theater experience. blake: what about the companies? maybe we go back to imax for a second. i was looking at that. you look at some companies that are big players in this space, they haven't had a good year. there it is. imax down 20%. amc down pretty close to that as well. what is happening? >> movie sales are up, attendance is up, maybe not reflected in the stock prices but it does show there is a healthy need for these kind of movies. people still wanting to to see

them. people have written off theaters. people said the movie theater experience is dead. they said that some times. you have this movie-going year like 2018. i think 2019 could be ahead with "frozen" and final installment of "star wars" and move voice that people want to see that are becoming cultural moments. blake: how are people spending movies for theaters, amazon is doing great, netflix is doing great, seems like everybody is getting a bite of the apple? >> you think this is the so much programing now. this is the golden age of television, whether netflix, hulu, amazon. so many options for streaming. you will see more in 2019. you have apple. you have at&t. you have disney. even more streaming services with a-list stars going to them too. reese witherspoon has projects at apple. people are flocking to the

streaming services. there is so much material. blake: what about 5g? we were talking about this yesterday. 5g will be rolled out in this country next few years. streaming to download a movie, when looking on horizon is that potentially a massive runway for these companies? >> i think so. people want that i think also people who have the streaming services, who watch movies at home, are people who do go to the theater. not one or the other. a lot of people saying i don't stay at home and watching netflix. it certainly changed media and television. have is -- there is so much material and no one can consume all of it. blake: i have five seconds. billion dollar movies. what will we see? >> frozen ii, "star wars," "aladdin." at least four, possibly even more. blake: sounds good. kim sara fin. thanks for joining us i

appreciate it. it has been i don't want to say dull, the market over last couple hours, charles payne, look at that just a few seconds ago we were quite literally unchanged a lot different than what we've seen over the last few days. charles payne, send it over to you. charles: great job, my friend. we've been sighing triple digit moves. don't sleep. i'm charles payne this is "making money." including the final day of this volatile trading week. stocks trying to find their footing. will we snap this three-week, three straight weeks of losing. can we beat it with three straight days of up. investors want to know. we have some answers. china offered the united states another olive branch in the middle of that trading war. it is getting underreported. it does not fit the anti-trump narrative in the mainstream media. it means great things potentially for investors.