as i said we had been up 320. that was the high of the day. >> oil as well, that is often a bet, right, on macro strength. oil is strong today. stuart: got it. our time is up. neil, sir, it is yours. neil: stuart, thank you very much. we're following the dow up 155 points. battle to and fro on china deal. samsung says numbers will decline anywhere 18, to 19% in the fourth quarter. a lot of that having to do with what is going on with china. officials over there, trying to cobble together a trade deal, increasingly sounding like they could get one done. that we've heard before. that is the battle royale. you get a deal, you're facing china has to make good on a deal, becomes more problematic slowing down. on going government shut down.

eightday 18, concerns that this will break the 1995 record. 800,000 americans affected. a number of americans feeling the pinch on the part of the president, dealing with this why he thinks this is worthy of a fight ensued will be delivered to the nation at 9:00 p.m. we'll take our air at 8:55 p.m. right before the president does that. covering the democratic response we're told will include nancy pelosi and chuck schumer. first time of a two-fer response to a non-union state of the union message from the president of the united states. get a read on all crosscurrents, bush 41 deputy assistant bob grady. bob, what is more of a concern, the federal workers not affected for the shutdown notwithstanding than almost any other issue for the time-being? >> no, i think the china issue is a big deal. i think it would be great for the markets and for the country if they reach an agreement.

there is feeling in the united states we have advantage, china's economy is slowing a little bit. alan greenspan said multiple times, many other economists, there are no winners in a tariff war. you're already beginning to see beginnings of inflation. see it in component costs across the industrial sector. see it apple slowing down their sales in china. it is not a good thing. it is not a good thing to have the fight brewing. that will help the markets, you're right, even more than resolving a government shut down. frankly i think it is time to resolve the government shut down. neil: i do want to go right to that if you don't mind. this is dragging on much longer than expected. we're told when the president addresses the nation, he could use argument for national emergency to get the wall that he wants. that will invite a lot of legal fighting back and forth. where do you see this going? >> well anytime the president addresses the nation in a prime time address it's a big moment. all the networks will carry it. that is good. i think the president has the

advantage in the sense he goes first in the response, viewership and response tending to fall off. he needs to be very clear making his case why this is a problem. i think you are right. i think it is likely that he is going to declare some type of emergency. he has pretty broad authority to do that. there will be debate, it is litigated. but at the end. day president made it clear he will fight hard for the wall. he made his case. the democrats, liberal democrats made it clear they will not give him a wall under any circumstances. it is really a stalemate. i believe he will use the national emergencies act. that is what his people are saying, which has pretty broad authority. it can be overridden by congressional resolution but it is unclear such an override would pass both houses. it would pass the house with democrats but i don't think a one house democrat would stand up to the supreme court. the real issue, there will be those who challenge that.

there are also multiple other authorities he can use to declare a emergency. there is a small immigration emergency authority one can use in a statute that says if you believe the volumes are going to get so high you can declare an emergency. although in that particular case the fund has only $20 million in it. neil: you have to have proof the situation, numbers, dynamics have changed. ironically border crossings are at six-year low right now. >> exactly. neil: the president arguments this warrants a crisis, he might personally feel isn't warranted by the numbers. so making that case would be a tough -- >> i think in an emergency you're right. net migration -- first of all gross migration from mexico is way down from '95 to 2,000, from the 2005 period. the pass through immigration if you will from central america. i think he needs to be specific about the case. it is probably true there are some bad actors, in the central

american groups coming in. this week there was a big fight. kirsjien nielsen there were thousands of people on surveillance watch list. the left came forward the six people had been detained. president should be pretty specific about what the intelligence has found. what is a bigger issue the sanctuary city issue where you have cities ex-employs is italy not giving information on known criminals, some cases violent criminals to i.c.e. that is very bad. i think the president has the high ground there. you look at the recent murder of officer ronil singh here in california, again by someone who had long rap sheet, was a known criminal, was here illegally. similarly year or two ago we had the very unfortunate death of kathryn steinle here in san francisco. neil: right. >> i think the sanctuary city issue is one he might touch on. he will have to make his case. the overarching point i would

make, neil, he has to move on. the shutdown is not his friend. it is not a good thing for the country. the markets have been very patient. the markets are patient with the shutdown. sell off in december for other reasons. it is kind of stable now. but it is not going to be forever. you heard the story on stuart varney's show, people not showing up at ces. neil: it will mushroom. people are back to work after the holidays. effect is real. >> even if it is getting challenged. i would dough claire the emergency, move on. everyone knows he is fighting for wall. if it gets litigated over several months, at least the government is running. that is probably the answer he is going for. neil: thank you very much, bob. we shall see. the president will outline the case he wants to move on this we should posit if the president wants to take advantage of national emergencies act which came into effect after watergate, trying to rein in

presidential overreach, set a code what would warrant a president acting on his own, there are some cases where the president can take action on a unilateral basis. he can assign his secretary of defense, quoting here, to undertake military construction projects that are necessary to support such use of the armed forces. again coming from the pentagon budget or reallocating funds already there. we're told upwards 13, $14 billion worth that the president could tap into that in event make the cause this warrants such action. "washington examiner" writer phillip wegman. phillip, regardless whether he can or can't do this, he will make the attempt to argue he can, then the battle ensues, right? >> not only a legal battle congress will be called to task. what we've seen lawmakers do cede their authority to bureaucrats and administration

agencies. at this point if president trump decides to use the national emergencies act, then congress has to explain why they're sitting on their hands or why they will check him as coequal branch. it will be incredibly interesting. we'll see a court battle ensue afterwards. neil: now longerring effect of this is being registered now in a couple days, a lot of those federal workers, 800,000 or more, government contractors affected by this, thousands more won't be getting any money. and won't be get any paychecks maybe not for a while. there is that effect how it plays out. what do you think? >> i think what we've seen so far, this is high drama, low-impact shutdown of the mostly because a lot of government has been funded. a lot happened over the holidays. we're in the new year. it's a new ballgame. when you see those contractors and those employees not get paid. then perhaps later on, when you

see tax returns not being sent back, that is when the real pain begins. honestly, at this point, in week three, pelosi and trump are so dug in on the issue, i don't know what it will take to get either together at the table, whether or not that is even possible at this point. neil: that is why i think the president might take this national emergency route because he isn't getting anywhere at the table. this could maybe remove that. the shutdown ends that way. but the main concern seems to me that the two sides aren't reconciling on this. >> absolutely. >> this is the sort of ugly secret to this shut down which is that everyone is getting exactly what they want for the short term. if you think about the incentives here, nancy pelosi, she has incentive to make certain the rabble-rouserrers in her party focus on the shutdown fight, rather than getting involved in impeachment quagmire. mitch mcconnell has incentive to shelter in place, to try to protect his senate majority from the fallout of a trump shut down

that the white house created. and then president trump obviously he has an incentive to try and get this wall. it's a core brand promise. if he doesn't get the wall, at least he needs to be able to go back to show the voters that he fought and did everything he wanted, for them, so they go to the voting booth in 2020, say, yes he still does fight. unless incentives change, i don't think we're anywhere close to a deal. neil: he has nothing to lose declaring this national emergency for himself politically. i'm not talking about whether right thing to do. fight the good fight. thank you very much my friend. phillip wegman, overall smart at this pants at the "washington examiner." we'll cover the president's address 8:55. we'll cover the address. cover the democratic response. nancy pelosi and chuck schumer together. that is a bit unusual. a response to the non-state of the union address is not usual

but that is not unprecedented. we'll get into a little bit of that. unlike a lot of coverage you'll see elsewhere, we have reaction in futures markets, what is going on globally. a lot of our guests said this is not dictating market movement nearly as much as china talks, comeback in the market. is it a slowdown. that is the big debate in this new year. this could become a big issue. looks like the shut down drags on for quite a while. which is pretty much the case right now. so depending what the president says. depending on the argument he makes, depending on the gravity of the democratic response, you can bet this will affect your bottom line which is why we're covering. we'll have more after this. ♪

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neil: a lot of people are noticing all these multi-hundred point, 1000 point swings saying something is going on here that is not typical. what do you think? >> yeah. no, i agree, there is going to be a day, there is going to be a day, i'm 98% sure of this we'll hit a wall. >> we'll always have ebbs and flows in the economy. today is no different. we had amazing run-up 10 or 12

years, since the crisis of '08. to have a bit of a selloff or downturn doesn't surprise me. >> it looks like there will be growth. not as if we're going into global recession. maybe slower growth than people expected couple months ago. neil: market movers and shakers weighing in on the market. some bullish, some bearish, trying to make sense what is fast market conditions. a little less fast going into the new year. we have susan li, scott bower and events shares chief investment officer ben phillips. susan, the underpinnings the administration pointed out will save the day. the fundamentals are down. we'll see more evidence of that, like jobs numbers. so everyone take a chill pill. >> i think everyone should take a chill pill. we're not in recessionary environment. most people understand we're moderating. yes, that is true. the jolts, job opening numbers proved again there is still a

strong economy that we see in the u.s., since we have 600,000 more positions available than people looking for work at this point. when the fed is forecasting 2% growth, that is better than where we've been for the last 10 years. take a chill pill. we're still working out trade at this point. there are positive developments, differences narrowing. neil: you're not leaping in with both feet here, right? how would you describe your position? >> no, i'm definitely not and i'm still very concerned. there is still a lot of headline risk out there. we'll see what happens tonight but yes, the fed eased off a little bit, but nothing else really changed. we haven't received definitive news between u.s. and china on tariff talks. i don't believe we're in a recession. i think the economy is on solid footing. but i'm waiting for the next pullback, neil. neil: is it pull back to the degree we saw last month? >> looking for higher lows. i don't think we'll see

stability. i don't think we get to the lower bottoms. neil: how dot higher lows become lower lows? >> we've seen progression, two times in a row, where we sold off, that selloff a bit higher than the previous time. i want to see that again. i also want to see some stability. i don't want to see the vix go between 19 and 30 on weekly basis. stablize in the low 20s for the new norm in the near term here. things are probably at least for the next three months or so going to be okay. i also want to see solid earnings reports. now we're going to see companies come out. they are going to address the tariff situation. but, we've seen estimates come down to a level where most of these big s&p 500 companies, they should beat both top and bottom line. >> guidance is key. what about the next quarter or next year. >> 100% based on the tariff issue and that's the concern i have. >> growth environments and credit environment we're in,

when corporations have issued so much debt over the last 10 years i think that is probably the biggest concern right now. neil: that debt is a big worry of carl icahn's. ben, one of the numbers, or things is he referring to the volatility index the gauge of fear, it has gone down quite a bit in this new year. it can swing like a geiger counter. how do you watch the sentiment that seemed certainly like all over the map certainly last year? >> we're respecting the sentiment. we're noticing institutional investors. there is a lot more fear in institutional world than retail. if you ask investor on the street, they haven't shared their fears with us yet. we're talking to peers, other investors. volatility is fairly normal in 2018. almost spot on normal. 16% standard deviation in

s&p 500 is historical norm. we got spoiled in 2017. neil: it is early on in the year, i grant you, technology issues clawing their way back, having a pretty good year thus far. we've seen a lot of small cap, russell 2000 stocks come back up four or 5% this year, still early i grant you. what do you make of that? >> russell 2000 is indicative of where we might be going. small caps is the place to be to hide if you had to hide. neil: because they got overly beaten down? >> more domestically oriented. they were the first to enter a bear market. they located back. they have come back 10% since the lows end of december, close to christmastime. neil: right. >> this is obviously a part of the market people are looking to pick up some bargains at. neil: how do you play that, scott? >> i think you look at some of the banks actually in the small cap space because yes, rates have come back down but the volatility we've seen in the environment over the last three,

six, nine months, that is good for most of these banks. especially ones in the small cap space. trading volumes, trading revenues, revenue out of bigger banks i believe is going to lead to better bottom line productions for them. better revenue growth for them. i really like the banking sector after getting beat up, after rates come in a little bit here. neil: prospect of rates going up much higher, minimizing -- >> do you think they are in 2019? fed funds futures says you might see a cut. neil: do you see that happening. >> i'm not so sure about the rate structure but what i like is the trading environment. if we remain, the vix remains somewhere around the 20 handle, that is a very robust trading environment for these big banks. neil: ben, i know every wall street titan who i have chatted pays no attention to the government shut down. to a man or woman, they haven't

raised. which worries me. everyone says maybe i shouldn't. everyone raises prospects of a china deal which might or might not materialize. if it were to materialize, it might not be the paper it is written on, especially if china falls into a deep funk. leaving that aside are we being too cavalier about the shutdown and implications especially if the president declares a state of national emergency which is slippery kind of an area to get into? >> i agree that is a slippery slope. we looked at past shutdowns. the market doesn't seem to care until after 20, 21 days. we are approaching it quickly. it will be a volatile q1. it's a big march. we have the end of china truce expiring on march 1st. march 2nd, debt ceiling limit expires. "brexit" end of march, debt ceiling sandwiched in there. we'll see volatility up until then. like scott pointed out the market is still trying to find

its footing right now. feels like it found a little bit of footing. it is still early days. the technicals are still pretty broken. neil: susan, when you see the president take that move, he goes that far, full throttle effort to get a fence built, military, national guard involved, military funds that is a big deal, the swamp of activity involved in it, that is game-changer. >> 2018 was the worst year since 2018. before that the last year the s&p fell? 2011. that is when you had the government shutdown. that is when you had the credit downgrade. psyches matter more than economics as we heard from jamie dimon. if you have the ongoing government stand still taking place, showdown over wall funding, that is is not a good sign. doesn't send a good message for the markets. that creates unnecessary unknowns. neil: we didn't expect kumbayah with the democratic take over in the house?

>> much, floor traders do not like uncertainty, that begets volatility. there is so much uncertainty out here. if this continues on the psychological part of the market, the psychological part of trading is what will take over at least in the short run. emotions will run high. when emotions run high, what happens, people hit the sell button first. they sell first and then they pull back and really think about it. so that is really what concerns me in the next probably six to eight weeks with all of the risk headlines that are right in front of us. neil: well-put. final word on the subject. i want to thank you all again. a reminder we'll cover the president's address 9:00 p.m. eastern time. we take to the air at 8:55. we cover the democratic response as well. unusual to have democratic response or opposing party response to a non-state of the union address. it is not unprecedented. what is unprecedented doing that response, nancy pelosi and chuck schumer. this is like a pay-per-view

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>> welcome back to "coast to coast. i'm gerri willis from floor of the new york stock exchange. stocks higher on news that u.s. and chinese negotiators narrowing their differences on trade, scheduling an additional day of talks. heavily relying on trade of china. trading higher as you can see. boeing, caterpillar, united technologies all doing better. dow dupont doing really well on news chinese ministry of agriculture approved imports of genetically modified crops. they urge more u.s. firms to sell biotech seeds to china, including corn, and soybeans. chinese purchases of u.s. goods and services, opening china markets further. initial reports say a final deal, it ain't done yet, it is

still aways off. even so president trump tweeting morning early, talks with china going very well. china negotiators expected to release a statement about the negotiations after the round is complete. neil, 45 seconds, international relations trade deal, market, how about that? back to you. neil: you covered a lot of ground there. thank you very much, gerri willis. carl icahn, probably one of the more successful investors on the planet was telling me donald trump has to be given credit for slashing corporate tax rates. he is very worried about that being undone as we speak. take a listen. >> when you talk about corporate taxes, i think donald trump had to do that. to make us competitive, to try to stimulate companies to have more productivity, which doesn't seem to be working that well but at least you had to do that. neil: a lot of democrats, especially those taken over the house of representatives, trying to undo that.

the corporate rate, lasting 21%, they want it back to 28%. charlie gasparino on give-and-take. >> taxes needed to come down to make me richer. neil: is that your carl icahn? >> i could actually do, i've been practicing so much dr. evil, it has got me off my carl icahn. i have known carl for a long time. i love the man. the problem -- neil: worried they undo that. >> i don't think the democrats can undo it. i know they can't. would have to go become through senate and congress. neil: knot even all democrats are on board. >> it ain't happening. they may bring up the class warfare argument. that may be marginally helpful to them. they're gearing up for 2020 and they're going to hit -- this is what the democrats will do in congress. they will highlight a bunch of things trump is vulnerable on. they think he is vulnerable on the corporate tax cut. massive corporate tax cut compared to pretty puny individual tax cuts. and particularly if the economy

doesn't keep growing at 3%, they will say listen, you basically gave a blank check to corporations. what did they do with it? they didn't invest in plant and equipment. carl icahn admitted it. they did a lot of stock buybacks carl likes because he investor. generally not help the economy. they will hit him on taxes mueller, things like that, that can embarass him. right now we're basically, in three months we'll be in the soup. right now we're heading right into the 2020 presidential election. neil: his take on the lower rates. not what they're doing, makes them globally competitive on fairer playing field. what do you make of that? >> i continued to agree. there were some loopholes in the corporate tax rates that companies were paying effective corporate tax rates which were much more competitive than you would i this. neil: right. >> i agree with some of that. i'm not for big corporate taxes

or big individual taxes. neil: he is worried about debt. he is worried about debt. >> he should be and the reason why, if the corporate tax cut if these corporations do nothing more than buy back stocks or little more than buy back stocks you're not getting gdp for bang for the buck and tax receipts paying for the deficits. that is a big problem. we're heading to trillion dollar deficits. no presidential campaign, people don't run on the deficit. big thing democrats will show, banking on economy slowing, giving a huge tax cut to the rich as economy slows, donald trump is in the back pocket of corporations. he is a, you know got ethical promises of businesses. doesn't pay all the taxes you pay. they will try to get his tax returns. they will hit him like that as candidates come out of the woodwork. joe biden is one.

kamala harris is one. joe biden is not, i speak to people that know him that he is leaning. neil: they're waiting to hear from him. >> he will announce soon one way or another. after on the groping stuff and russian bots, people think he basically walking around putting his hands on people in the middle of the street. a lot of these pictures on the internet are fakes. so, i would just -- neil: would that go anywhere you think? >> no, it won't. what it will do -- neil: biden is selling himself as only one that has a chance of beating president. >> if trump goes to try to compare him to bill clinton, it will backfire. it will raise the issue about his own sexual issues with storm any daniels. neil: they don't want to go there. let me ask you quickly about the shutdown. i was telling the prior group, when so many wall streeters dismiss it out of hand i say why

are they all dismissing it? >> right. neil: the president presumably tonight will declare a national emergency and keep it going, heating this up. your thoughts on that, whether wall street should be so cavalier ignoring it? >> they shouldn't be if it goes much longer. here is the thing. you have to ask yourself how does it impact the economy and corporate earnings. corporate earnings impact stock market but the economy in general. one way it does this, my producer lydia wrote a nice piece, security security is essentially out of business. securities & exchange commission. the federal communications is essentially out of business. if government agencies can't approve deals, sec, securities & exchange commission has to approve ipos, if the ipos get delayed indefinitely, corporations can't go public that is economic impact. neil: sure. that would have wall street impact. >> we are preventing capital formation process from going forward. a couple weeks no one will care. maybe even month or two, no one

will care. if it lingers longer than, that this looks intractable. that will have impact. by the way if federal workers are not -- i tried calling people in washington, in federal agencies all the time. they're not there. neil: maybe they say they're not there because -- >> sometimes. i get lydia to call them, they all love her. they're not there. neil: lydia used to work with us. then she joined her. kind of hurt my feelings. >> she wants to be with the big leagues. neil: apparently. >> i will tell her that. apparently, this hasn't had an impact on the economy. but if people don't have the checks -- neil: lydia joining you did not have the impact on economy? >> i'm sorry. you got me confused. the news, twitter has been lit up ever since then. neil: but it has to have impact on the economy. i think that whole notion of federal agencies not approving deals and stuff like that, where you get a slowdown in the market possibly impacting. neil: you're the best, buddy. >> thank you. neil: charlie gasparino --

>> i didn't mean to say i was the big leagues, you're not. neil: that is what you said. >> you are the big leagues. listen i don't do a lot of shows here. neil: you're like elvis. appear where you want to appear. >> i love you. neil: i love you back. we'll follow that. we'll talk to lydia. we'll try to get a gauge of the president's address tonight. you know what is a big deal, i didn't realize this, first time he has spoken from the oval office. that is a very important venue here. of course that was the same office that ronald reagan used a number of times to address the nation, on everything from tax cuts, to the challenger tragedy. the same office that john kennedy used to sell tax cuts. later on that cuban blockade in the middle of the cold war when we came very, very close to something that could have been very, very nasty. oval office backdrop is a little different than any other sort of venue. we'll explore that, after this. ♪ the day after chemo shouldn't mean going back to

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♪ neil: not only an address to the american people but one from the oval office the place of power we associate with so many seismic events in american history, whether of course the cuban missile crisis with john kennedy or number of crises under ronald reagan but overall addresses are big events. we see 33 alone came from ronald reagan from that office. there was good reason for that. he thought it was powerful, powerful backp drop. barack obama not so much. three speeches from that august room, epicenter of power like i say. former reagan economist art laffer on that. what is it about your old boss ronald reagan thought about the oval office to address the nation? >> let me say you and charlie gasparino make a great team. i love to watch it. reagan loved the oval office. he was very good at it obviously. historical record of being an

actor, being able to do that, he could pull it off and loved doing that i think trump should do more of it as well. this should be terrific for trump tonight. neil: the significance of the oval office, presidents speak all the time, sometimes we lose sight of the fact whether it was oval office or not, reagan looking at disproportionate numbers of addresses over his eight years, three dozen, he liked that venue the most, whether on a personal tragedy, after the challenger disaster or explaining the iran-contra issue toward end of his presidency. what was that about? >> it is gravitas. like dressing up in black tie, the president took his job very seriously, reagan did, he used the oval office because of that seriousness. he dressed all the time for the same reason, he spoke very well all the time. that is what trump is going to do tonight. i think it is the perfect occasion for trump to do that. it is the border issue, the

shutdown. i hope they try to put their principal spokesperson up. nancy pelosi should do her address as well. it should not be any other member of the house or senate. it is really nancy pelosi should donationwide address explaining her side of the ecraig. neil: she will have a response along with chuck schumer afterwards. so you're right about that. two prominent people to do that. >> they have to. neil: such responses are rare in non-state of the union addresses, not unprecedented, but they have been done. but they are rate. what do you make of that? >> i don't think they should be done with respect to donald trump's speech per se. they should have a separate address themselves, have it nationwide, the two of them if they want to. i don't think they should just kibitz and argue what trump said, this, that or the other. do a full address what their plans are. nancy pelosi and schumer have stood against everything that trump does. they don't have a prospective plan whatsoever. trump stands for the wall.

he thinks that is the right thing to do. goodness knows, neil, i'm no wall expert of any sort. at least he is standing for something. these people should put out what they stand for. i don't think they have. all they're doing is standing against trump. they made it a purely political issue. i don't think these things should make it political. it should be substantive. neil: both side play fast and loose. >> they do. both sides could call it quits tomorrow. especially issue of $5 billion. there are probably 600, 5 billion-dollar issues in total government spending f there is battle like this everyone of them, we would have no government ever operating. neil: declaring national emergency. that would be a slippery slope, because they could do the same for any number of purposes. >> very true. neil: we shall see you, my friend. >> happy new year to you, my friend. neil: art laffer. another tech company warning of a slow down.

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i think i misstated samsung warning numbers on fourth quarter operating profit. it was 29% decline they're looking at here and that is what they call scary guidance. if that does ring a we, echoes what apple was saying. apple was focused on slow down in china. apple is saying there is something more worldwide when it comes to the memory chips and the like, hints of a slowdown across the entire sector. market watcher keith fitz-gerald following all of that. what do you think of samsung saying? it's a little different than apple but speaks of a slowdown for a technology area thought it had overcome the worst of it last year, what do you think? >> well i tell you i'm very, very concerned about these numbers as opposed to apple's numbers. samsung, 75% of the their revenue comes from the chip sales. i think they made a managerial error not diversifying their business. it speaks of pressure that

business segment. neil: if they're having problems getting chips out, or the wrong chips and appetite for chips is not what they thought, this is more than a china issue. this is more worldwide technology hasn't done with its rout issue, right? >> i wouldn't say it isn't done with the rout. institutional trading pressure is different than pressures on market. there will still be 5g, and there are a lot of reasons to buy chips. this is uniquely dependent on a company that made that a fundamental majority of portion of their revenue. i think there will be slow down, i think competitors will pick up pieces. that is what bothers me about samsung. neil: when i look at the entire sector, samsung is a different case as far as u.s. investors going through adrs, what have you, apple is not the only one that hasn't turned things around. amazon come back, facebook has

come back. google has come back, started year off at a brisk pace, save apple. what do you make of that? >> you know, i think what that tells me not a lot of people understand what apple really is. like just calling amazon a book seller. people can't separate apple historically from maker of ipads, iphones from where it is going, services, installed systems, different companies. apple needs to rewrite the narrative. it bothers me it hasn't come around yet. neil: keith, thank you so much. we get fixated on movement of the dow. for regular viewers of the show i try not to get caught up every minute of the dow look at momentum and swings that could dominate trading right now. there is a good deal of tension with the trade talks. trade talks themselves we're told are going promising. that the chinese and a number of ministers are talking off the

record to "the financial times" and reuters and some of these others hinting that a deal is possible before the march 1st debted line when tariffs kick in. how is this setting stage for market comeback or certainly from the lows last year. raymond james chief strategist jeff saut on that. jeff you're already convinced we hit a bottom and we're bouncing back. is it based on the trade prospect or based on what whichever overdid it. >> i think we overdid it in mid-september. you had the three most intense selling days in a long time. people were selling into a vacuum. you had hedge fund liquidation, mutual fund liquidation, etf liquidation and tax-loss selling. there were mo buyers around. most of the people i talked to the portfolio managers were on holiday in the hamptons. they sold into a vacuum. looks like we made a bottom

23,051. technical analysts had 90% upside day, 90% of the total volume traded is on upside and 90% of the total points traded on the upside. that usually represents a bottom, a major bottom. so i will play it that way until proven wrong. neil: you know, jeff, during the holiday, was it significant to you that the dow and s&p which were perilously close to bear market territory, following likes of the nasdaq and russell 2000, and some of these other areas into bear market territory did not? close as they got they did not close at that now given themselves a little more wiggle room from that? >> yeah. i don't buy the argument that the 20% up is a bull market and 20% down is a bear market. in secular bull markets like '49 to 196, you had a number of 30%

plus drawdowns but it didn't stop the secular bull market. in '82 to 2000, you had the crash in '87. that didn't stop the secular bull market t wasn't on 13 years,. neil: i remember that 66 fear, in we breached 1,000 on the dow. we didn't close over a thousand until 1982. you can pick and choose the inflection points but they're a little weird, aren't they? >> we actually made the high-water mark in january of '73 when the dow closed at 1051. that is also when the equivalent of the "fang" stocks peaked. that was the nifty 50 peak. one decision stocks you were supposed to buy, never sell like polaroid. neil: polaroid. i forgot that one. is apple in danger becoming another polaroid? >> i defer to my analyst on that. he likes apple. neil: as far as the technology proxy, it hasn't lost that

luster, in his eyes, you're eyes? >> not to my knowledge. neil: that is very cagey response. i like that, jeff. always good seeing you. happy new year. congress is back right now but no end of a shutdown in sight. the president will try to address this matter in a nationwide address we're told he will possibly declare national emergency to get the wall built. there will be legal fighting back and forth but bigger issue for the markets is whether anything else can get done in the interim. probably not. why some people in the markets say that is probably just fine, after this. (nationwide jingle)

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neil: all right come of the shutdown we are looking at is already the second longest in history, two days away from being the longest act in 1995 when bill clinton and newt gingrich were going at it. republicans get the shorter end of the pr stick at the time without one. what's going to happen with this one? the president will address the nation on all this. 8:55 p.m. will take that special coverlet at the address in the reaction and response by chuck schumer and nancy pelosi. it is rare, not unprecedented in a non-state of the union speech for the opposing party response. but there's opposing side they thought was necessary they lean into the networks to make sure their point of view was heard on this.

all of that recovering thousands hour we appeared kristina partsinevelos at the white house at the very latest on what were in store for tonight. >> there's a lot of -- a lot in store. my stance is heading over there to discuss border security around 5:30 p.m. eastern time. early this morning he made the rounds to a few tv networks and said there's been no decision made yet by the president declaring a national emergency over the border wall. the border while funding. so here at the white house of course the conversation has revolved around the president's speech at 9:00 p.m. eastern time, which we know he will do to the humanitarian crisis at the border. he also is suspect and to warn about the threat of terrorist and that's where there is a slight miscommunication coming from the white house. what i mean by that? press secretary sarah sanders said 4000 known or suspected

terrorists apprehended at the u.s.-mexico border. yesterday on fox news you had kellyanne conway say that sanders made an unfortunate misstatement. and then we have within the past 24 hours the homeland security secretary to weed out that the exact number is sensitive. we can bring that up right now. she sang in the threat is real but the number of terror watchlist at the southern border has increased over the last two years. the gap number is sensitive and detailed in these cases are extremely sensitive. you mentioned you have those chuck schumer, democrat chuck schumer and house speaker nancy pelosi wanting to issue a statement after the president gives his speech at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. even mike pompeo who's in the middle east right now in jordan alluded to this. let's listen in.

[inaudible] [inaudible] [laughter] reporter: the president normally makes a lot of news after he gives his speech. no doubt this'll be any different. the question is will there be any type of foreign-policy talk in this conversation. right now at the white house readers will waiting to hear 9:00 p.m. eastern time but this is a significant event to give a speech in the oval office. back to you. neil: thank you very much. so hollow all of this is factored out politically. the senator and former north carolina democratic congressman brad miller. i can begin with you. your sense of what is at stake for the president if he takes the leap to declare national emergency and get moving on the wall, what will be the fallout from that you think? >> that would be a significant constitutional crisis that would undoubtedly result in litigation in the cases are against them.

the president can just see his powers and say he's doing it to cause an emergency. tree into what do you make of that on the president will declare everything else in this is the only other option. of course they go back and forth on this. what do you think? >> i think the president not to call out congress because congress has convinced the american people that they are too divided to solve the issue of immigration. because of bad he's going to have to step in and take care of it himself by executive order or declaring some sort of emergency or crisis. to me, the difference if he goes into the oval office tonight and he says this is a case for a crisis, he can make that case. what he ought to do is challenge both nancy pelosi and senate majority leader mitch mcconnell to lead up to the risible as they profess on this thing and have a real conversation about border security and immigration. i think brad would agree with this from his time in congress. everybody agrees on the vast majority of what needs to happen

in security, entry exit, these does. this is not that difficult him above are playing politics with it instead of good policy. >> both sides are pretty good at that. i'm curious as number of democrats in the past has said some sort of structure in the border. not every inch of it that is in order here and then they backed away completely en masse for whatever reason. what is the reason? >> i can tell you the reason. there have been two deals that did involve more of a border fence or border wall, but involved other things. in both cases the president had to deal with democrats and jolted the democrats. this is all played out very publicly. >> i understand that. but if the two sides are now taking these positions and the one for keeping the government shutdown against doing so, yet they have more common ground on this than meets the eye and each

side is understand the other's decision in the past a number of times. what is to stop the deal now. >> everything i worked on with legislature and congress is compromised. but calling something a compromise does not make it so. twice there have been compromises in both times bush has walked away from them and jolted the democrats. if i were the ones doing negotiating i would not know how to negotiate with trumpet this point. >> is fair to say ronald reagan of course scored a huge immigration deal with democrats in 86, only to have it backfire. so there's been enough for legal chicanery on both sides. >> well, they had a deal. the obvious possibility of the deal. very worried about the people who had come here as children and have lived here all their lives and try to give them some relief on their immigration status and that appeared to be a deal.

the fierce opposition from the very militant anti-immigration wing of the republican party and president trump backed away from it. neil: i do want to get a sense and then judge napolitano on the one issue that keeps coming up is whether the president is overreaching here. pearl harbor. that's a big emergency. the ebola virus is a big emergency. other presidents have acted to declare one. fdr assuming office in the middle of a depression and emergency. is this in your rise and emergency? >> i think it will be interesting to see if that's the case to the case the president next tonight. if he uses the democrats were set there is a crisis of the border, humanitarian crisis and otherwise, then he can go down that path. i think there's two levels to this crisis. there are things he can do in terms of appropriated funds that

happens pretty regularly. i think the bigger challenge is just because you can do something doesn't mean that you should. i think what the president not to do is make the case tonight in terms of let's have a real discussion about border security and then say i'm going to give congress 14 days or 10 days or seven days and if not, then the crisis will be real. they will have proven their incapable and responsible of getting this done for the american people and then i will act. he can make that kind of case and that would resonate with the american people. neil: we shall see. we will be honoring this beginning 8:55 p.m. on this channel not only what the president has to say about this but what nancy pelosi and chuck schumer and a tagteam televised response to the president have to say as well. also gauging foreign market reaction to this. our own futures market will be

open and will be a very quick proxy on whether this is going from bad to worse as far as watching them civilly. judge andrew napolitano on this in the national emergency issue. how do you prove that case, judge? >> very difficult for him to do so. the congress in 1976 in the national emergency act defined in emergency, and i'll give the and -- definition a minute because it was refined, that basically means a truly extraordinary state of events. which creates an immediate and palpable threat to life, property and safety and which cannot be addressed by the employment of ordinary government assets for the exercise of ordinary government power. that is a very, very high bar. even if the emergency is declared and even if it is not interfered with by the court, it doesn't allow the president to

do anything that the constitution prohibits and it doesn't permit him to avoid doing anything that the constitution requires. so what is the constitution require? it requires all federal expenditures be authorized by congress. question, can the president take money, budgeted in column a and move it to column b., where b. is not budgeted. answer, no. question, can the president spend money that congress hasn't authorized. he cannot. can the president build a fence or wall or doghouse on private property without exercising eminent domain authorized by the congress. answer, no. he's pretty much in my view on very thin i.c.e. if he were to give -- offer the declaration he talked about the other day. neil: how does the emergency have to be? in other words it was evident when fdr took over but the economic and market freefall that he would declare a bank

holiday in the lot so that was an over breach but he had the wind at his back of the national emergency. you can argue the same after 9/11, broad powers you are concerned about to declare and keep on transit and executive action. those were a bit more obvious. i would think of something like this. >> if this is a true emergency, the president's people must first determine how they would address it without the declaration of emergency. emergency means there is no means to address it. is there enough to go down and stop people from coming over. are they still coming over? what happened to the caravan. where did it go. they are being processed into the united states >> the illegal crossings is done through six and a seven-year low. you can't make that argument. >> the president will address these tonight because if he does declare an emergency the courts

will force the department of justice lawyers who are representing him. >> and when they are forcing him to address it and he perceived, let's say tomorrow morning if he declares an emergency, they start moving on this wall or whatever. can a judge who slaps it down mean that spots the building? >> in my opinion yes. it would be stopped almost immediately. it is almost on all fours with what president truman attempted to do in 1952. we're fighting the korean war and the united steelworkers of america go on strike. every steel mill in the united states and truman couldn't get military material to troops in the battlefield. he sees the steel mills by executive order. he hires people to operate the steel mills. supreme court stopped them in a week and said you can't spend money without congress authorizing it. and you can take over private

property without congress authorizing it no matter what the emergency is. so that's the model for the court's decision. 1952 and it's still the law and the president needs to be guided by it. neil: could you also go to jfk and all he did was steal when they were announcing a hike in their prices and using the bully pulpit of the presidency and shame them into say you shouldn't do it in other nations rescinded it. >> that is where i agree fully with your two previous guest. there is a problem with immigration. i've read the immigration laws. you can tell which parts are written in 1920 and 1940 and which parts were written in 1986. a lot of them are inconsistent. the whole system needs to be revised. we need a great national debate led by the president, not with a gun to people's heads. the government will collapse if we don't do this, recognizing all the immigration problems and

resolving them. if the president pushes out tonight, we'll have a lot of public support. i'm going back even further technically i thought this grand bargain to avoid this. that was very popular in the late john mccain trying to come to a middle ground and it never ever happens. >> you alluded to it earlier was romano rizzoli the congressman from kentucky and ronald reagan in 1986. some people say it didn't have a happy ending and gave rights to everybody that was here. but the last time we seriously addressed immigration. we did not look at all the statutes on the books that preceded that. some of which the president is finding great difficulty in enforcing. even libertarians realize government does do some legitimate things. neil: thank you very, very much.

177 points. if they're worried about this, they are not showing it. we will have more after this.

neil: you know, i was like watching the markets and how they react to news that is oftentimes similar to the day before but the prospect of a

trade deal that doesn't look good. seizing on time but suddenly do look good. talks that the exchanges are having with the chinese regarding a deal on trade have been extended an extra day, which seems to me they're making progress. author dan joseph says that china is a little eager to do this right now and that might be why were hearing such talk. very good to have you. china obviously showing all the evidence of wanting to keep these talks going. i understand with the slowdown but it appears with lots of other data out of the country. is that why were at this point? >> i do think the incentive has grown for china to make a deal. basically since the financial crisis in 2008, china has slow rolled reform while adding on the debt, piling on the debt in their economy. on a long-term strategy for success. the headlands have been growing. the most recent has been

consumer spending, which is now falling. with the trump administration is really asking china to do with what they need to do anyway. continue to reform the economy. definitely a lot of incentive for them to move in the right direction. that doesn't mean they automatically will. but i do think they're interested in getting something done. neil: do you believe they'll make good on anything they do get done? >> there's a lot of skepticism relative to china and for good reason. let's not forget 40 years ago china was a completely communist country. no private property. no industry whatsoever. they've changed immensely. sure they've slow rolled reform and by doing not come in the kindest slow rolled for filling some promises. there is reason to be skeptical, but they move forward in the right way of the past. i'm not going to take anything for granted and i'm sure we're going to put the measures in

their to assure ourselves that one, two, three years down the road china will make the negotiations tricky. i wouldn't be completely cynical on that issue. there's a reason to think they will move in the right direction. they've done it before. neil: in many years that covered china and i've always marveled at the numbers to get out of china. they doubled the quarterly growth in were mainly of the charm of its character on "saturday night live." we grow 15% i never believed the data coming out. when i hear them talking about things slowing down a gorgeous 6% or 7%, similarly cynical. so who is to say they're not in a world of hurt right now. we scored trade deal with these guys and they can deliver the goods for use by our good. >> well, and quite possibly there is more hurt, but the data coming out of china is always

dodgy, but there're things like exports, imports, investment that are a little bit easier to measure. the one thing we can see when we get earnings reports from companies is that look, years ago they had real estate and industrial but they went too far there and now we are seeing results from companies like gm and apple because consumer spending is slowing and it's hard to hide that. i do think the strategy they've employed, taking different 10 years ago, 120% of gdp is just not sustainable. they were going to run out of room and i think they have. while that compel them to make the right kind of deal? right now we don't know what the bottom line is the trump administration, but i have a feeling we will learn more over the next few days, certainly the next month or two. neil: they've extended an extra day. thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. neil: technology stocks have had a good start to this year.

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neil: all right, apparently sears is not dead yet. an option for sears will go ahead on january 14th it was in danger in fact today of shutting all those stories after 126 years. the chairman andy lampert, kind of a separate auction to keep the story alive. right now a judge tentatively approved side of her. sears is not done just yet. will keep an eye on that. meanwhile, tech fears are part of the ongoing conversation and concerns that would have been last year could continue this year, even though for a lot of the bellwether stocks it hasn't continued this year.

the countdown to the closing bell, liz claman is there. >> neil, you could qualify this is the super bowl for type geeks. they're expecting 182,000 people coming through here to look at the latest and greatest. i need to tell you the topics this year, the big chatter on the floor is very much something you can't actually touch her demo. it's the fact people are talking about the privacy and fears about people's data. not to mention the terrorists continuing and of course a trade war with china. that is a huge topic. the korean giant warned of a big type and revenues and they are fighting, and they said the global economy, but when their two biggest customers are china and the united states, you can triangulate and realize the trade wars definitely putting a freeze or at least a chill on their business. they do a huge business when it comes to some i cannot yours but

give -- you may have never heard of this. these televisions and consumer electronics they literally just started in 2007 and they have become a huge, huge player in this world. though with the samsung warning, talk about it on your show in the last hour, that's extremely serious. companies like samsung and everybody else they take ship designs from a company called arm appeared first on fox business. i just caught up with the ceo. listen to what he said about the global slowdown. >> everything says that global growth is going into 19. when i talked to my colleagues come into something worrying everyone. the industry has had a number of years of very rapid growth.

>> by the way, they are u.k. based the they've got a deal with the negotiations next week. he said he is big on global. they sell everywhere. in fact, hoping to do a trillion by 2035 in all of these connected devices. this is a serious discussion here. superimposed over the government shut down in the trump administration officials almost all of them if not all of them have backed out of 2019 because the optics are not good. it's interesting ces this year. a big discussion about all these issues and more. neil: great job. doing all this coming getting more from there as only liz claman can. we will go into this in a lot more detail. let's go to tech analyst sarah chipper on all of this.

i'm wondering what this says that the time being or for the time being for technology that it was overdone last year with most of those stocks from amazon to facebook, microsoft has been clawing their way back in putting an pretty appreciable results. what do you think? >> i think it's going to be continually brutal for these stocks over the next year because we don't have enough visibility. we really don't understand what is going to happen in the macro economy. we have a good sense of what could occur with some of these businesses. withstands sun and certainly with the iphone. we recognize it's reached a certain level of saturation and apple will slow down some of its growth. we don't know the other fact yours. click for pins will we get a trade deal? is there a nationalistic fear.

is the economy that people don't want to buy these phones because they don't want to go on record showing they're buying something american in china because they're getting tracked in doing it. >> i can understand and bemoan what's happening in places way beyond china. beginning to think maybe this is a bigger or more worldwide development than we give it credit for. >> withstands sun there's some indication that ships were a little bit expensive as it was already in there some deflation going on. i just don't think we have enough data to know that it's going to be significantly bad. i do think there will be a slowdown in because of these factors are going to have tremendous volatility.

if you're an investor you've got to prepare that there's going to be some significant potential pain and brutality short term. medium term, long-term, these stocks are great stocks of amazon, apple. neil: a lot of people apple, amazon with dirty 5%, just hang on? >> i think absolutely. if you believe in the leadership and an apples case case that they have such an intrinsic bond that they just need to innovate and i'll get the incremental purchases. apple can raise their prices slightly. they have so many ways like

coca-cola does because they have the brand loyalty. neil: not as much oil. >> well, far more than most firms and i think it's that kind of a brand where they've got the ability to continue to grow. they have divisions like the services division is just getting started. we'll see much bigger growth. the story to investors medium term, long-term if you believe in these companies are great companies and they should do very well long term and medium term. neil: eric, thank you so much. happy new year. >> happy new year to you. in the meantime, carl icahn worried about that, almost superimposing anything else. more after this. nah. not gonna happen.

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neil: are you worried as the president has been that the fed risks overdoing it and that it

might already be too late, that attorney has overdone it? >> if you look at the whole picture and the problem really is it is too much debt in the world today. you just can't keep doing it. it is amazingly $250 trillion you just cannot continue to live with that i don't think. certainly too much debt in our country. >> that's his biggest worry. seeking out value than it is a ticking time bomb from companies to average individuals it's a worry by editor terry jeffrey.

and some of them and it's a big problem. >> it's a huge problem and icahn has a point. the largest owners from the federal reserve itself, their number one. entities in communist china. number three entities from japan. according to the treasury, u.s. government debt peaked in november 2013 in november 2014. so the chinese ownership is down over the last six years and we have a government now that's borrowing a trillion dollars a year the last two years we had to have told republican government. republicans control the house. they controlled the senate, the white house of a borrowed $1.98 trillion. that's overlooking out in the future and at some point they are not going to want to buy

this debt without much higher interest rate and the federal government is not going to build a deal with it. >> i always get them angry e-mails when i say that the biggest security issue for me is our debt. under publicans and democrats are ignoring it, but that is a far bigger threat to our national security than anything happening at the border. i'm not minimizing what happens at the border. but we're in it deep financial fix right now what we're looking at a trillion dollars deficit this year, another trillion after that. on and on we go. that can't help but blow up in our face. >> there is absolutely no plan to deal with it. paul ryan before he was speaker of the house was the most articulate person in washington speaking about the fiscal situation in the federal

government. he has some excellent ideas are for example, the reform plan would allow people to control their private retirement account. the paul ryan also recognized long before he became speaker that did that was a threat to the future of our country, that when he became speaker, what did he do about it? nothing. >> or payment just to keep up with the interest will soon eclipse what we shell out to defense. leaving that aside, ryan got in a lot of trouble for just wanting to load on the growth of medicare. just slow down the growth. i think people remember that distinctly on both sides of the aisle and say it not worth the political/and we're going to get. >> i think that's the truth. unfortunately the main drivers of federal spending for social security, medicare, medicaid and you have all these other

programs that the republican congress doesn't want to even touch. they know if they try and do something, i really think we've gone past the point where they can reform social security. they're not going to reform medicare. we actually increase medicaid. so it's a ticking timebomb. honestly, i really believe unfortunately we're going to have a fiscal crisis before the political establishment in washington deals with that and the fiscal crisis is really going to affect people's lives in a way nothing like this partial government shutdown. it's one of these things you look at the numbers and you can warn people about it, that the political establishment will not do anything. >> thank you. just a quick little note. one percentage point uptick in rates. what we paid to carry the $20 trillion in debt. that alone will be eventually adding a trillion dollars to the

debt even if you do nothing else. in other words, by osmosis is getting out of control. just thought i'd say that. a little more after this. knowing what's important to you... it's okay. this is what we've been planning for. thanks, bye. that's what's important to us. it's why 7 million investors work with edward jones.

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neil: credit was abnormally low for a long time.

you and i both know the tip of the spear its ipo and high yield. when sentiment changed radically, those are the first two areas to cut two areas of the cutback in that kind of open up over time. >> we were just talking about the debt and the words before the immediate future, jamie dimon towing maria bartiromo that the credit markets are in a worry for him. higher interest rates stifling the economy. he'd be in a lot better shape if he has the same environment barack obama joined in the federal reserve forcibly had interest rates near zero. the message you're getting from jamie dimon as i'm not worried about a crisis right now. >> no, this focus on the fed is a lot of wasted time and emotion. the equivalent of saying let's look at television and only judge it based on abc and nbc.

that leaves out cbs, cable channel, netflix, amazon, stars, you name it. the fed is a small player in a globalized credit market that projects very limited influence through banks, but the reality is most credit occurs away from banks. in the last corner, paypal lending blended jpmorgan businesses. my point is most credit occurs. why do we focus on the central bank. >> nonetheless we do. i'm wondering if the federal reserve, can we take them at their word that they might stay intact for a while. >> even if so, my reaction is so wet. how would you react if meir deblasio said we decree rentals cheap in new york city. would that make apartments plentiful there? obviously not.

in the same way comic in the said decree access to resources cheap and just make them plentiful? you're not borrowing your dollars. which are bartering is that they can exchange for. tractors, computers, most of all labor. the fed cannot increase resources. you cannot shrink it. what the fed tries to shut down, other credit sources not associated with tanks reintroduced. they cannot create a good economic environment. it's a great follower, not a rate setter. >> so let's say rates may be go up for the federal reserve raises rates. they don't control the tenure in all the others. then what? if it's limited to just the two, it never goes, then what? >> let's reduce it to the absurd here say the fed raises it to

20%. does anyone think apple will be borrowing 20%? in the same way at the fed reduces it to zero, do you think i could borrow a zero-sum money. the reality is markets work around something as ridiculous as an entity trying to set the price of what is a global price credit. again, the focus is overdone. the fed simply can't quite control it. we just try national championship football game last night. fighting recessions is the equivalent of alabama keeping terry boutin. they would have been in the game last night but that would've been fighting the recession. recessions are assigned the economy as clans and so we don't want to intervene here in the first place. the recession is the sign of an economy about to grow. to get out of the way. >> are the first guest who has put this in the context of college vote all.

thank you very, very much. in the meantime, is it any closer to a deal. everyone trying to get a sense of what the president's going to say tonight. will that move the needle come tomorrow? after this. apartments become houses, cars become mini vans. as we upgrade and downsize, an allstate agent will do the same for our protection. now that you know the truth, are you in good hands?

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neil: "washington post" is reporting that president, does not plan to use emergency powers to fund a border wall. to the "detroit news" editorial

page editor, knoll finley. should the government should shut down but moreover out of control spending. very good to have you back, nolan. what do you make of the latest development? >> he has to take the step by step. he hasn't made the case for the border wall. he has to convince them we need this border wall. national security is at stake that it matters to them. it is concept, just like government shutdown is. neil: i don't want to peg market run-up hitting session highs after we got this news, wall street always loss something about a fight or unknown or murkiness of that, but having said that i worry more about, forget whether you avoid a constitutional crisis, our spending is already at that point. >> well, yeah. this is the issue most people have with this.

it is $5 quadrillion, in relation to the federal deficit. five billion is still five billion. that is number that matters to people, if we put the money toward bringing down the deficit, i think people would be happier. neil: no matter where you stand, just attempt, conservative, or bipartisan attempt to address these issues not solving them, how we deal with this, would could a long way to build market, average joe and joanne confidence. >> that is where democrats, nancy pelosi and chuck schumer are squandering an opportunity here. there are things they want from the president on immigration. neil: right. >> if they put those things on the table, they have got him really in a place that he has to deal or lose face. i don't think donald trump doesn't like to lose face. they're more interested in thwarting him as pelosi said, as

they are, getting anything out of this. president says this is national security issue. that our debt, that is national security issue dull issue. neil: if you look at this. the president said, mexico will pay for this. people can't get over that. people remember that. in reality, the chinese are paying for it. they're paying for it by loaning us money to build the wall and to fund all of these other areas of government that we have not been able to pay for since about august. we ran out of money in august, have been borrowing money from the chinese and other places to fund the government. i think, that is a very real concern concern that people should be aware of. neil: need to pitch for security

and along the border, sounds like this could drag on a while? >> it will drag on a while. he will not give. pelosi and schumer don't want to seem to give. depends how long the workers working without pay, particularly at airports, the air traffic controllers, the tsa agents. you start showing up at airports, you can't get on a flight you paid for because the tsa folks called in sick, or the air traffic controllers haven't shown up, it becomes real to you. it is not real to most folks outside of washington. we haven't noticed anything about the shut down. start making it real. they start getting on the phone, calling their congresspeople, calling the white house. when the people get fed up, i think is when this thing will end. neil: you can't get your passport or get the fha-backed loan. >> right. neil: closing down on time, then it is whole different ball of wax. nolan, thank you very, very much.

>> appreciate being on. neil: same here. we are following that very, very closely before i hand it off to my buddy charles payne. everything said it will not be national emergency, "washington post." with the dow up 241 points. sir? >> thank you very much, neil. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. stocks are rising today, along with hopes for incident, u.s. china trade war. at least major advances there, as reported the sights seem to be getting closer. maybe the meeting is extended another day. market likes that. president trump, border wall, people, first time prime address from the oval office. he is set to argue nation facing crisis as government shut down nears three-week mark. we'll preview that. biggest consumer electronics show in