liz is still here. where is the private form of communication? liz: still waiting for the check you mailed me. stuart: inregret the dow is now close to the low of the day. we're down 390 points. neil, it is yours. neil: stuart, thank you very much. we're following up on getting in and out of the lows of the day. caterpillar is contributing a quarter of that with disappointing earnings and sales on guidance that didn't exactly electrify the multinational community. a lot of names that dominate the s&p 500 are feeling it. boeing is another one. nvidia, the chipmaker reported much lower than expected guidance for revenues in the quarter that stock is already down 14%. it is carrying a lot of big names with it from intel, amd, micron.

they are getting kicked around badly. the comment president made to the "wall street journal" he doubts we will get a deal next couple weeks before possibility of another shut down. in other words he could not guarranty there would not be another shutdown. republicans and indeed democrats saying that would be a bad idea to revisit. republicans among them, telling him do not go back to visit this well. we're on top of that. susan li is busy. she has been on every show everywhere. rose cliff capital founder mike murphy. certainly last but not least is liz peak fox news contributor. are we overdoing it with the response to caterpillar or signaling a slowdown others are mentioning? it is going down in asia. they confirmed it. others are hinting at it, what do you think? >> caterpillar is viewed as a proxy for global trade, so no, we're not overdoing it.

i have to say i looked at caterpillar's numbers, correct me if i'm wrong, nvidia came in same time, revenue was pretty much expected and pot hit on earnings. neil: badly, so much was built into it. >> my question if sales were down 4% in asia 4% the case how is it earnings got hit more than revenues? i wonder if companies are taking this as opportunity all the china trade, all china being soft in fact there issues inside. it may be supply chain. >> math worked for caterpillar, profits came in line but costs went up because of tariffs. they guided for impact of 100, $200 million in the quarter. earnings call is on going right now. >> we're going to hear more about what actually went on. there look, i don't think there is any question that china is a

problem. asia sales are a problem. >> is this new though? something new that came out of nowhere? we've known this for a while. people were predicting 6%, 5%. neil: it is convenient excuse de jure. what retailers used to do blame the weather. they never credited the sun. having said that what do you think? >> one important thing we have the market, individual names in the stock market are trading on the news. nvidia is down, because they put up bad number. nvidia is down because they put up a bad number. we don't want volatility coming in because trump tweeted this or china said that. we would prefer positive news. it is early in the cycle. nvidia, we've known the news a long time. neil: they have been telegraphing troubles. i wonder something bigger has roots back in china, whatever we score on trade this week with their minister coming to town,

might just be outweighed by the slow down? >> china's problems are not all to do with president trump and the tariff battle. neil: absolutely. they have fundamental problems. >> a slowdown is taking place. it will be really interesting. suppose we get a deal and tariffs go away, we have a better trade relationship. i wonder if china reaccelerates in that context they have internal structural problems that are impeding growth. neil: i agree. even though the vice prey mere score as deal, i don't know that will be for china to make good on it. >> as i said structural issues of high debt taking place. we have unemployment. people need to find jobs. 21 million new jobs need to be found each and every year. you have a industrial clamp down. they built enough bridges.

that is debt fueled in china. >> they are going back to, that is sort of alarming given the debt levels. there is not enough attention paid to the fact that is despotic regime. if businessmen can be snatched off the street which staking place in china, if foreign visitors are told to go there because your life might be in danger? what is going on with this? this used to be a rule of law nation. business people are extremely anxious about investing. neil: i don't steak too much of it friends of yours in higher real estate community, 157 on central park, a lot of chinese buyers canceled out, opted out. anecdotal. they are purchasing lots of things in this country has slowed. i'm wondering if that is

signaling something? >> i think it is signaling the chinese economy isn't doing as well as it was doing. you pointed out, neil, united states is guess game in town or best house on a bad block. neil: do we benefit from it? >> i think we do. if you're selling 150 until dollar condo, it will hurt you slightly. if it is not from the chinese it will be from other parts of world. neil: you talk to wall street and there is lot of confusion how the market started out the year. >> very strongly. neil: most robustly since 1987. we know how that year-end the but leave that aside, and this is noise in the meantime. >> this is quarter of preannouncements as well. nvidia doing that.

they will announce february 14th. neil: but they do it a lot of are they covering their legal heinies with that? >> i think so. they're setting the bar pretty low so they can look pretty good when the numbers do come out, take the pain now. we're on a five-week winning streak. 9 billion or 11 billion-dollar hit, people are still pretty positive on the u.s. market. >> may i say that is nothing in a 20 trillion-dollar economy. >> drop in the bucket. >> we came in the market -- neil: cbo estimated it will cost in total $11 billion. how do they know? >> they don't know. >> we came in with concerns about fed getting much lighter. fed is signaling patience, parish then -- patience. concerns about a slow down. what is everyone looking forward

to, buying the market for, earnings would still be pretty good. so i do think -- and they are. they will be up this year. this obviously we have to be concerned about the caterpillar numbers. we may see more. apple is tomorrow i think. neil: what do you seize on? the fact that seven out of 10 are beating expectations albeit lowered expectations? >> you do but remember if you take a step back a little bit we told off 20% to end out, roughly to end last year. to see this five-week rally is a lot of buying, people coming in to buy on the dips. neil: what is the statistical elect sy of the january effect? does it hold up? >> it does but december is also a pretty good year for the market that didn't work out last year. neil: right. >> if you're watching from home. looking for opportunities to invest, you want companies showing good growth. i would be cautious about trying to jump in to buy a dip on a caterpillar or an nvidia.

you want companies, hopefully you hear it from amazon and apple, that they have strong growth coming. that is where you want to buy and invest. >> domestic focus, united states as you point out is the best in town. neil: american consumer very, very resilient. >> we get the retail sales numbers, right. neil: i don't want to wonk out on this but i think it bears attention that the federal reserve is sort of changing the tapering stance. might not do it as quickly or the pace it has been doing it. still carrying a large balance sheet. others welcome it. others say why aren't they doing that? what do you guys make of it? >> people are focused on rates. now we have the concept they will not change rates anytime soon. there was persistent draw down of the balance sheet. truth is no one knows impact of that is. we have never been in the position where the fed had almost 5 trillion-dollar balance sheet. now it is systematically changing it.

neil: is there danger carrying that 4 trillion, 3 1/2 trillion? you never know? >> there is a danger. like liz is saying. we don't know. that is contributing to the volatility. what i really want to see as an investor the fed making rational decisions, long-term, focused decisions. neil: isn't it rationally decided it can't sell the stuff? it lets it mature? it might be pulling back because there are not a lot of buyers for it and doesn't want to get embarrassed. >> it could be. if the fed wanted to sell, there is plenty of buyers out there, a lot of buying would come from china. neil: really? even with all of these stuff? >> absolutely. neil: all right. a lot more coming up, including bernie sanders. he is contemplating a run. if you think about it, he is talking about all the stuff now when it wasn't cool. now he is pack again to say i'm still relevant. talk that hillary clinton is considering another run. why not? there are about 400 of them all looking to run. it is going to be like one of

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about it with bernie sanders, all of these candidates who emerged now, talking expanded medicare, medicare for all, paying for college, that started with bernie sanders when it wasn't cool his former campaign staffer joins us. very good to have you. >> hi, neil, thank you for having me. neil: it is an honor. is it a give ren. would you support bernie sanders if he saddled up again. >> bernie sanders has to show that he is available candidate. i am disappointed, not staffers, others are, exploratory committee gimmick. he needs to decide to run or stop running his mouth or run for office. me, neil, i won't be going for anybody this year. i'm keeping wide open looking at all the candidates, look what they have to say. i honestly want to start from scratch. 2016 is very different than

2020. because i believe in democracy, i'm giving everybody a fair opportunity. neil: that is a good way to be. what i notice they're all out burning each other. a lot of ideas started with him have become pretty much mainstream in the party, not across the board but with enough candidates they all want to outdo him in case he runs. does that worry you, are you okay with that, or what? >> certainly doesn't worry me. i think the more the better. debating ideas is good. i think 20, 30 candidates is great. have 17 like the republicans did last time, so we see who is progressive, who is moderate, who is not. all of sudden everybody is progressive, everybody is medicare for all, when same folks didn't support it two years ago. i want to make clear i'm on fox. i'm not a socialist. i signed with bernie sanders because i was anti-establishment. a lot of people including bernie sanders they will have to show who has the best ideas for the

party. democrats will not allow bernie sanders at that take over the idea. they say they are progressive but then they will flip like a mattress and then when the election comes they become a moderate candidate. it will be a fun year so i'm looking forward to it. neil: are you worried that someone like former starbucks ceo should is running as independent that would divide the democratic vote. >> i am not worried at all. bernie sanders should have not been begging to become a democratic if you're not one. they will not give him the opportunity like i mentioned a moment ago to take over. i think it is good when you have somebody split the vote. neil: you say you don't think they will give him an opportunity this go-round? >> absolutely not. absolutely not. sure, no question about it.

no one will allow you not to be a dem contract to come in and seek the democratic nomination. he is not just fighting hillary clinton this time. he will fight 10 plus candidates. it will be nearly impossible. neil: they're preaching from the same choir book you could argue he wrote? >> that is true but at the end of the day they're not all going to his church. they could be preaching from the same choir, but their pastor is pastor warren, pastor booker, they have their own outreach. sanders hat been able to not tap into different communities. he hasn't made that many strides since 2016. he will have a tough time for sure. neil: quickly treatment of your position, the guy you used to work for, you want to see become president, do other staffers, senior otherwise, worked with him a couple years ago feel the same way? >> oh, for sure. i mean, to support bernie sanders second time you are signing up to be a sacroficial lamb. everyone is not interested

having to deal with the constant debates on racism and his issues with race and class. everyone is not wanting to be signed up to be considered a bernie bro. everyone doesn't want to take on the party establishment this time because it will be extremely divisive. although he has a lot of support, supporters, surrogates and former staffers will sign up with him a second time, there are people who decided to do something different. some of it has to do with him joining up with hillary clinton. a lot of people feel he flipped and went to the other side during the general election. so things are very different in 2016. neil: interesting. very good talking to you again. be well. >> thank you. neil: i want to get tom bevin reaction to this, "real clear politics" cofounder. what do you think about she is saying? there might be trouble in sanders land at least among early sanders supporters? >> i think tesla is right, this is different scenario than 2014. he caught fire.

running against epitome of the establishment hillary clinton. given all the things that happened since then this is completely environment. he will have trouble if he decides to run, even getting out of the starting gate, that there are some different democrats occupying so many other lanes, to your point preaching a lot of same policies were unique to him couple years ago are now more mainstream of the democratic party. neil: howard schultz considering a run but this time as a independent. what do you think of that? >> you know there is always this big clamor for independent. always talk about people in the middle wanting to see someone and yet it sounds good in theory but in practice it is not just a viable option at this point. you have partisanship driving this country both on the republican side and democraticside which doesn't leave much room for independent candidates. we have to go back to perot to see someone who was even nominally competitive. so i think howard schultz is, probably going end up spending a

lot of his money for not a lot of results. neil: it is interesting i remember ross perot the first go round before he dropped out and came back in. he was polling ahead of george bush, sr. and bill clinton. of course there were concerns that maybe he was getting a little goofy or whatever. allegations were coming out, you know quit. then he rejoined. so it's a little different but in that first incarnation considering a run, he was, he was polling extremely well and consistently well. so i don't know if it knocks out all independents but independents who can make a credible case and stay in the race. what do you think? >> look, perot is unique figure. he is sort of a folk hero. neil: absolutely. >> charismatic with his folk sy sayings. he was anti-establishment. running on populist message at time that was unique and different. the public was reacting to it. fast forward to 2020. howard schultz saying parties are broken.

i want to fix it. on the left and right, both candidates and incumbent president, whoever the challenger will be running on populist type messages. it is kind of inverse. i don't think the moment will be right for howard schultz. neil: what we remember about ross perot was those charts. >> right. sucking sound. neil: howard schultz, at least in the 60 minutes interview was bemoaning the debt, the parties have failed. he could make a credible contribution discussing that because that is the ticking grenade people tend to ignore. what do you think of that. >> when he was asked how will you pay down the debt or deficit, i don't want to get into hypotheticals. that is ridiculous. you have to have a plan, running for president. you need to answer those types of questions. i'm not sure if he is not prepared to answer those questions but you can't on one hand say i'm running to tackle the debt and not have a plan to do it or not talk about it. neil: i think it is uphill battle you espouse being

populist, feels for people even though you're a billionaire but your chain sells 10-dollar cups of coffee. >> i'm from seattle. don't get into the whole thing what he did with the supersonics there. neil: tom bevan. "real clear politics" founder. roger stone dialing back that idea that he could say something that could damage the president. our judge napolitano just interviewed him. yeah. he is next. eh, it just feels too complicated, you know? well sure, at first, but jj can help you with that. jj, will you break it down for this gentleman? hey, ian. you know, at td ameritrade, we can walk you through your options trades step by step until you're comfortable. i could be up for that. that's taking options trading from wall st. to main st. hey guys, wanna play some pool? eh, i'm not really a pool guy. what's the hesitation? it's just complicated. step-by-step options trading support from td ameritrade

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>> when you talk to mueller's people about your communications with the president of the united states and with donald trump before he was president? >> i see no reason why not to. there is nothing inappropriate or illegal or wrong with those communications. they're innocuous or they're political in nature. neil: that was our judge andrew napolitano on his "fox nation"

hit show talking to roger stone. that is pretty interesting. >> one of the reasons for indicting somebody is often to get information from them. you have sort of a sword of dam owe close ranking over their head. i don't think they can get him to flip like manafort or george papdopoulus. but in volume to lessen charges he may give them information to help them some other way. he says he knows of no conspiracy. he was not involved in it, he was not focal point of it but he will be happy to chat with them. neil: what am i to interpret in this interview versus some signals he said outside of the courthouse in florida? i'm friends with the president. don't expect me to say anything bad about the president? >> i think he is probably willing to talk to them about the president but according to

him he has nothing that they can use. now that can be tricky, because they have a puzzle a jigsaw puzzle putting in little pieces in it. roger and his lawyers probably do not know what little pieces they still need. what may seem innocuous to you, me, roger stone or his lawyers may be very valuable to the prosecutors. but this is a step forward, for mueller and his crew. they did not charge roger with conspiracy. they did not charge him with being involved in a agreement between the trump campaign. neil: basically, that he lied they're not providing you're telling me what he got? >> listen to this. the alleged lies were told in a secret hearing before the house select committee on intelligence. so i said to him, have you seen the transcript of your so-called lies? no, i'm not allowed to see it. are your lawyers allowed to see it? they're allowed to see it, not

allowed to copy it. the government will use evidence against you and not give you a copy of evidence? that begs dismissal right there, once this is challenged before the federal judge. >> neil: his lawyers have seen it. >> they have read it, copy, make notes but not allowed to have it. this is crazy. neil: let me get your sense, every time i see him in an interview, i don't know how it went with you, he seems, you know, nonplussed by all of this. in fact he actually seems to enjoy it. >> he is actually looking forward to having his lawyers cross-examine his tormenters and getting on the witness stand and defending himself if it comes to that. now, neil, if it comes to that, it will be a year from now. what will be happening a year from now? the iowa caucuses and the new hampshire primary. the trial of bob mueller into

business into the 2020 election. nobody imagined this when he was appointed back in 2017. neil: unless he is pardoned? >> unless he is pardoned i did not raise with him, stephanopoulos did. who wouldn't accept a pardon any haven'ted for it, i haven't spoken to the president in months. neil: the president and his team distanced themselves from him. what did you make of that? , did that bother him? >> no. his lawyers told him the president's lawyers told the president to distance himself and lawyers told him stop calling the president until the dust settles. neil: really? >> i don't know what the dust settleses means but it hasn't settled yet. neil: the president switched gears on the shutdown is indicating it could happen all over again in 2 1/2 weeks if this thing isn't settled? do you think it will? >> the president lost 10 points in his approval ratings, 10-point flip. disapproval is up five, approval down five.

that is pretty serious for him i think two years out from the, from the election. if -- neil: zeroing in on the separate polls that show him picking up support among latinos. >> that may very well be. if his plan is to sign an emergency declaration i do believe that will be enjoined by a federal judge almost instantaneously. neil: really? >> very clear, last time the supreme court looked at this 60 years ago, it hasn't been interfered with, but followed since then, where congress declined to give him that authority, he can't take money from column a and move to column b and he can't condemn property without congressional legislation. much of the real estate where the wall would be built is privately owned and they would have to condemn it in judicial proceeding which the landowner can challenge the government as worth of the property. when the government wants your property they always low-ball

you. neil: but you can always find a reason to justify from taking money from column a to column b. they done it from hurricanes or disaster relief, military called up and national guard. so the argument you're hearing from many in the conservative camp there is precedent for this, we had it under barack obama and others, what do you say? >> when he asked for congress to authorize the wall, the congress said no. he cannot do it on his own. neil: that is clear distinction. >> that is the clear lesson from this steel mill case in 1952 involving truman. he said i want authority to condemn steel mills to fight the korean war. congress said no. and supreme court said no. neil: what about imminent threat and whole bunch -- >> the court would probably enjoin him anyway, hold a hearing how imminent the threat was. but i don't think he is going to use the absence of the funds for

the wall to hold up the government. i think that did not go well for him. neil: all right. now. that means if you're looking for justification, for expanded wall funding, this won't be it but declaring a emergency could get the monkey off his back to allow the government to resume operations, that he could say i tried everything and nothing worked and i did my best? >> i know exactly what he will say. and they gave me an obama judge again. then he wins points with his base. the money is not spent. neil: he hates the ninth circuit. >> part of this wall would be in california. so ninth circuit is probably waiting. neil: waiting, ready to take the case? is that automatic? is that the one automatically gets it? >> no the plaintiffs are very shrewd and they know where they are likely to find judges likely to agree with their interpretation of the constitution. i would suggest to you, as we speak those complaints have been drafted. depending upon the language in

the executive order, they will decide where they want to file it. neil: all right. amazing, you've been a busy bee. all the big newsmakers, all of that. so don't forget that. meantime which have the dow jones industrials, 27 of 30 components are now down. we're in and out of session lows, down about 343. this started with caterpillar, not that the numbers were bad. but guidance worried folks. caterpillar saying because of asia we've got problems. that might be the excuse de jure for a lot of these companies now that are clinging to something to hang their hats on if their numbers don't meet estimates. might be why boeing is falling off in sympathy and these others are falling off. there might be very little to support it. sort of like the dog ate my homework, it works. more after this. r what you need over to you, logo. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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neil: what is is up the expression, if at first you don't succeed, try, try again.

we're on third or fourth try of this stuff. ashley webster in london. what are they doing now. >> good question, neil. try and try again is what they're doing. tomorrow is time for british lawmakers to have their say. we know what parliament won't vote for. tomorrow we find out what they will vote for. they have theresa may's plan b, which is essentially plan a with a few tweaks. we know that will not go very far. what weigh will hear is a debate overseerries of amendments that may just get a deal passed if you attach those amendments to the plan. let me give you a idea of some of those amendments. amendment b, this says that if no deal is reached by february the 26th, you must postpone brexit until the end of the year. in other words extend the deadline nine months. another amendment, rule out no deal brexit, begin preps for second referendum. require the irish backstop to be

replaced with quote, no alternate arrangements. we understand that the government may back that one, replace the irish backstop, neil but all of this is in the hands of house of commons speaker, john berko. he is the guy that shouts, order, order. he reins in control how to control british lawmakers in the house of commons. he gets to decide which amendments are debated. the prime minister met with members of her own party. i need you to help with the bulk of my plan. let's not take brexit off the table. not stick with another referendum, please stick with my plan as much as you can. tomorrow is a real crux day. if they come up with something they can agree on and majority. theresa may would take that, go back to brussels to say, hey, guys, this is it. if you agree, i think we can get it over the line before march 29th. as we know the eu up to this.has

poo-pooed everything. it is what it is. we gave you our best deal, neil. if it feels like groundhog day, it is because it is groundhog day essentially. neil: almost like the eu loves turning britain on a spit. >> oh, yes skewering them. because they don't want to make it easy. they're very upset the jilted boyfriend or girl friend who never will give you any, you know, leeway, because they don't want other countries to line up, saying hey we want to do what the uk is doing. they have the best of all worlds. not within the eu's interest. it is getting rather farcical by this point. neil: amazing. great job, my friend. be well. stay warm. a government watchdog saying shutdown is over. the it could take a year or

more. center of freedom prosperity, dan mitchell. americans are waiting to get refunds, processing returns, any of that in jeopardy here. >> first of all do we want irs back to normal in the sense they make a lot of mistakes? they have very bad customer service standards? but i'm, partly joking on that. here is what i want to start with. most of the problems with the irs are not the fault of the agency. they're the fault of the 75,000 pages of tax law that congress has created over the last 106 years. that being said, the irs is engaging in a version of the washington monument syndrome. in effect, look at this, we were a month without normal operations. so therefore we need a bigger budget or we have a perfect excuse for the rest of the year every time we skew something up. so a lot of it is sort of boy cries wolf type of thing. don't pay too much attention. neil: dan mitchell, if i interrupt your commentary there to say the opinions expressed

that are deemed disparaging the irs, are those of dan mitchell and dan mitchell only. trying to dodge myself of any investigations that might ensue. we're back to business, everything comes slowly back. but we're also told about it congressional budget office numbers that we lost $11 billion through this whole nightmare and three billion of that we'll never get back. i don't know how they came to that number. these guyed missed overall budget swings cumulatively by trillions of dollars over the years. what do you make of that? >> our economy, nationwide, our gross domestic product is almost $20 trillion. we may even passed that point by now. the notion that we'll measure an asterisk of an asterisk, $3 billion? maybe the numbers are right and i'm sure the shutdown is not the way you should run a government, so i wouldn't be surprised if there was a little speed bump here or there, but in terms of sweeping macroeconomic significance, no.

i would be shocked at the end of the day if we even notice this, when next years statistics come out. neil: do you think we'll come out, another one, 2 1/2 weeks the president doesn't get what he wants, democrats don't budge, whatever, we're back doing this again? >> depends how priedful trump is. maybe someone in the white house is telling him you really won but everyone is looking, trump gave in, he was the one who capitulated. now obviously your perspective on this issue will depend on whether or not you're open immigration versus closed immigration type person, but bottom line from a political perspective trump can't force the democrats in the house to vote for something notice somehow it becomes too painful for them. the problem if trump has government shut down for a long time, he will lose senate republicans faster than he gains house democrats. that is the fundamental,

political forces that the white house has to consider just looking at this from narrowly political perspective. neil: dan mitchell, we shall see. good talking to you again, dan mitchell. on the shutdown, we could be looking at in 2 1/2 weeks, we'll get read from sarah sanders from the white house. briefing 3:00 p.m. eastern time. if you're on the east coast or you will be feeling it. the coldest weather snap we've seen in some places in decades. after this. hey, who are you? oh, hey jeff, i'm a car thief... what?! i'm here to steal your car because, well, that's my job. what? what?? what?! (laughing) what?? what?! what?! [crash] what?! haha, it happens.

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has been a really smart decision for our business. - [narrator] custom ink has hundreds of products and free shipping. upload your logo or start your design today at customink.com. neil: you know, it is just dealing with a cold-snap and snow a little more than a week ago and here we go again but this more than just the cold. fox news meteorologist adam klotz. what are we looking at, adam? >> neil this is major winter system with temperatures as low as we've seen in a decade. i heard you say that. will not be as far off in some locations. this is behind a winner system. we have winter storm watches and

warnings across the midwest. eventually as it runs to the east coast, it will be cold on back side for typical areas that see rain we're talking about winter storm watches around warnings as far as south as atlanta and mobile. this will be a major system. as it does so, because of cold air, snow, you don't see it, bringing in such cold air. places like atlanta on the back side. that is not a big snow. it is cold enough to turn any precipitation we see eventually into snow. this is the fought ture forecast. these are the numbers when you wake up through forecasted highs. this gets really cold. these are day time highs on tuesday. suddenly 4 degrees in chicago. talking about negative 14 degrees in fargo. this settles in even deeper. topping off 44 degrees in atlanta, negative 14, as warm as it gets into chicago. this will be the epicenter for this right in the heart of the midwest as you get into the thursday in the negatives in

chicago. this happens on east coast. neil, look at temperatures of 16 degrees. midwest spots, if you include the windchill, negative 30 in some of these locations. it will be frigid. neil: adam, thank you, following this monster storm. at least monster in terms of cold. meanwhile we're focusing on venezuela. two people are competing to be the leader of that country. right now you have to watch the military, who will they stay loyal to. a sign, just a sign, one broke ranks with generals and top commanders, time to go for the opposition leader juan guaido. former deputy assistant secretary of defense under bush 43 peter brookes. this colonel, peter, he is a retired general, living outside of the country i understand, but still the first high-ranking military official saying you have to break ranks for maduro for the safety of the country. what did you make of that? >> i think it is important.

you're right, the military will be key to the direction this crisis moves in. if maduro is able to hold on to the military, that is an awful lot of power in venezuela. so as many voices that can call for maduro to peacefully transition to elections, from inside and outside of the country i think is a good thing. neil: now already guaido indicated there would be amnesty, presumably for generals who were considered a in a little too tight with maduro. that was a bid to win them over. how much of an appeal is that? there is a big difference between the high-ranking generals when it comes to food, they're fine, they're taken care of, not so some lower-ranking guys? >> one of the reasons some are staying. they're obviously benefiting from the current system failing the rest of the country. it will be critically important, some deals have to be cut regarding potentially amnesty, if the crimes are not horrific. we don't know what will happen yet, neil. i'm worried this will move in

the direction of significant violence. i'm concerned about that. i hope it doesn't. i hope there is peaceful transition. i'm worried maduro's folks start arresting people. there may be other things done that are unseemly. we'll see if the maltier ray plays a role in that. will they take actions against the venezuela people? there is a lot of things to play out. they will have to cut a some sort of deal to get them to leave maduro's side especially the ones benefiting from it. junior officers, enlisted folks, that may be different because i don't think they're benefiting much currently. neil: i did find it interesting maduro did not follow up on the threat to kick out all american top personnel or diplomats. this might be an opening bid to resolve this peacefully, what do you make of it? >> i think it is a good sign. there are negotiations going on. i don't know how fruit phil them are going to be or the pace they're going on but it was an

interesting reversal. he is afraid of the united states but power wielding militarily, economically and i don't want us to go in the direction militarily. there are things that can be done politically. we are gathering a international coalition to put pressure on the maduro regime. the brits have done something very recently. the eu may get out of couple days willingness to support maduro. this is all of these sort ever things are important, once again we want peaceful of transition of power in venezuela. i think those negotiations, keeping those negotiations open and communications between the united states and venezuela is good. neil: but the president has promised without being specific, maybe for good reason, there would be a sweeping and strong response if anything were to happen to these americans. >> that is absolutely true. american citizens, embassy personnel, it is critically important that their rights and civil rights and political rights are respected as american citizens, either diplomats or

expatriates in venezuela, national security advisor john bolton has warned as much that there will be strong, strong, unnamed strong consequences if there are any actions taken against our people. neil: peter, we'll watch it. >> thank you, sir, you're welcome. neil: if you didn't notice there are a couple new former trump inside books coming out, chief among them, governor chris christie's his due out on friday. general theme emerged, chaos in the white house then and now. what does sean spicer think of all of this? after this. you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.

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>> i write him or the dow down 360 and concern about a slowdown in china, a big u.s. international might be saying even if we could if we could trade deal with china would still have problems to worry about like what the chinese can make good on it. there is a schedule i white house briefing. sarah sanders will be leaving. december 8 he might come out with this renovation or are these the president telegraphing the possibility in his interview "the wall street journal" that is rattling some folks and they dodged a bullet in the bullet might come back. bull markets don't like that sort of uncertainty. let's go to senior vice president top management gary kaltbaum. when you think would happen if we had another shot down?

>> i must tell you that another 10% i was amazed to route that will shut down the markets just kept going and going. one of the things that the psychology of government not working what do the trick. i think what happened was you dropped 5200 dow points i would rally back up. it was starting to hear some inductors caterpillar number going forward, possible 1.2 billion in sales is not good news. we get a lot more a lot more of that as we move forward the next few weeks that will trump everything. neil: when you make of all of this yourself? >> well, i would agree. the market certainly hasn't been bothered by the government shutdown up until today. under any number of factors most notably with these companies are saying about china. the bigger concern is the other policymakers out of the way. everyone is concerned about

policy mistakes. we have jerome powell, pelosi and the president there. a lot of the problems are uncertainties being created by makers whereas the trade war, government shutdown or even federal reserve. wall street hates uncertainty more than anything else. but the overlay into what the economies are doing and look up with china and the companies are saying about china today. it turns the headache into something where you're worried about all these things that will happen in something like syria. the markets going to be okay. interest rates are low. they are okay in the interest rates have calmly and especially on the tenure side. i think we're going to be okay, but it looks to me like wherein for a choppier ride than the last two years. >> i'm reminded the wall street chief i guess coach youth with

another meltdown like we had in december is the nub of the realm of possibility. others have said much of the same thing anything can happen. but happen. this something that december, what do you think? >> nothing is out of the question. earnings and everything and i must tell you with not just china. you can explain china. they'll blame it on cold or hot weather. it's also euro. germany had a contracted -- a contracting quarter. i'm not so sure and again it's really going to be other news on interest rates are now appeared europe and japan are not going to raise rates. they're not going to stop printing. china just went on a major move to print more money. so that's out of the way. now its earnings. everything more caterpillars, markets will be in trouble. certainly we can retrace some of

them. >> gary, you know, i know you set way back from the markets and shame you do the same and look at trends, but the one that favors our market as we might not be the best game in town but were better than the rest of the games with the other global markets and earnings fall down from what they were the spire are beating what we call pretty good. what you think? >> well, i think you're right. you mention the trend. you set the lows that we rallied hard off of those. deeply oversold conditions. though we haven't created a new trend to the upside. when you look at all of these trends, we are delivering no man land. when you look at it from a global scale and you look at where the united states is in fourth-quarter gdp in fourth-quarter gdp in two points have been fourth-quarter gdp and to .7, two pointy%, somewhere in that neighborhood. we do think in the first half of this year we look at some agreement on trade whether it's a good one or not who knows but

we look at some agreement. the fed is off the front page. the government budget eventually will get resolved in some sort of meaningless way. and we will have a lot of these uncertainties out of the way. that will set the table for where you put your money and with a 10 year treasury to .7%, with the economies around the world slowly more than the united states come u.s. stocks could be the benefactor there. neil: already. i wanted thank you as well. white house briefing pushing back at 3:30 p.m. eastern time. mark meadows among those telling the over the weekend that democrats are willing to look at border barriers. >> where do we stand right now. three weeks to go by and effective. >> you can't look in a situation of labor will be easy. the shutdown of the last 35 days would indicate that. i do believe that high-ranking democrat, not just those swing

states new freshmen, that high-ranking democrat are willing to look a strategic fencing and border barriers as part of it. >> all that is on the line. senior advisor sean spicer, also the former white house press secretary under donald trump, author of the best secretary of the briefing. good to have you, sean. >> thanks for having me. >> you think the president would risk another shot down whether it's a blame on him or not a republican -- everything we've heard her singing do not revisit this. >> that's a great question. i think they're looking for every other option recognizing the impact of the shut down pat. i don't think he'll rule anything out. there's pros and cons to everything. the shutdown was clearly felt through so many family individuals that they realize the impact he was having on the economy. you sought in the day last friday flight traffic which

isn't just people traveling. if our economy. neil: what motivated him to reverse. >> you realize again this isn't just about catching a flight hero bear. it is literally our economy will come to a standstill as they go off the rails like it was. so i think they're going to look at national emergency options. they are going to look at reprogramming money. but the other thing and you brought this up in your conversation with mark meadows is that you are seen not just a rank-and-file members, but durbin, steny hoyer, bennie thompson, chairman of the house agriculture committee. a lot of these are saying the wall is not a moralist nancy pelosi said. does serve a purpose and so the question is if we can get this outside of trump and pelosi who are just decided to go back and forth to each other and look at it more analytically by getting numbers together and saying can we agree on certain things that

make common sense and then it's a product of bair versus a product of the back-and-forth between the president and the speaker we might actually be able to get something done and avoid all of this. here's the interesting thing. i think what the debate proves and this is a really interesting thing. the american people clearly did not like the shutdown, but they did show an increase in the desire for the border wall and border security. you have them agreed with the president's policy but not the overall tactic of shutting down the government. if we can take it back a step, which he and everyone has done now, you can focus on the policy with the tactic people did mine. get rid of the government shutdown. focus on the policy instead and you might get a solution. trade to the gap narrowed to your point, most americans did not really think a wall was necessary. but i am curious about what motivates the president when he

hears coming in now, press commentary, you heard it all. does that actually get so annoyed that he goes the other way. he has a history in the past if his base is upset, you know, going to that base again and doing something they might like. >> again, he also is a guy that recognizes what doesn't work. again, what is realizing now is kind of what i said, which is they might not have liked the shut down, but if i can talk about this in terms of humanitarian aid. if i talk about it in terms of human security and drugs coming over our border. all of those areas where there is widespread agreement and focus on democrats to want to work with us we might be able to find a solution. he may do something else to declare an emergency. i think he also in this case is playing the long game, which is to understand if i can fulfill

one more promise that i have a pretty good track record of delivering on i will be rewarded. i think his team has that book, you can keep getting what you want and fulfilling promises, but it cannot be the quick game we anticipated through the funding process. >> you know, i was not aware there were so many people writing books whose team is getting a lot of press and chris christie's books are at the end of the week and takes a look dynasty and the jared kushner not so favorably. what is it that engenders this type of stuff? >> i think that's a great question. i don't have an answer for you. as you know come to you and discussed a book i've read. i don't think i've took anyone to task. it was a book about my experiences and how i grew up and made it where i was. the idea of settling scores in taking advantage of a position of privilege and honor is just

unbecoming. neil: i raised with your book and your hard earned yourself, which by the way i told you never to do. don't be hard on yourself. i got a sense that you didn't want to get in the gutter or play up that experience to the present day. he takes everybody to task including himself. but he also said that kellyanne conway was the source of a lot of leaks. did you know from the experience of something like that who was leaking in which you be among them? >> if i knew who was leaking, my life would then a lot easier. i don't. always suspicious. you only have x number of people in this room when you're the story out or did they tell somebody. i think going back to what you kind of raise a second ago when you sit down with a bunch of publishers and they try to push you to see how far you'll go. i made a decision that wasn't what i was about and that's what

i wanted to do. in this particular case someone is giving the smooth level position on trust in the problem i look at is it's not just about him and the score settling and attempts to screw somebody over, but it poisons the well for everybody else because now you don't know when you're coming in the room if that person is taking note for writing something down because they want to be helpful. neil: did you ever worry about that at the time? >> copious notetaking and a lot of amateurs surrounded the president and heard his agenda. he was largely devoid of blaming any of that on the president that he put his trust in all the wrong people including his son-in-law. >> will look. here is the interesting thing and i have a lot of respect for what governor christie dated in terms of serving not just his stay, but in helping the campaign and then during the

transition. governor christine knows as well that there were that many people rushing the trump tower to help us out. establishment republicans sat on the side. a lot of the veteran operatives were part of it. the president rewarded a lot of people there for him and i respect equality. that being said i don't necessarily think all of those people should have had what they had. governor christie has a point a lot of individuals who out of a sense of loyalty the president wanted to take care of them because they were there when nobody else was. i'm not sure that they all deserve west wing jobs are high-ranking position in areas they have no qualifications for her. you've got a balance that. making sure you reward the people loyal to you, daryn serve you and no one else would. but also making sure you put them in the right position. there is a little bit of truth to what governor christie essay not in specific people, but

remember this president was in a guy who came from government so he didn't have a whole host of people that served or advised him in the like most or other president on both sides of the aisle have done. so the question to me is when you do with it in the idea this individual is they are not trashing everybody he worked with and brought them into these meetings and even allowed him to say and when he wasn't invited to really speaks to his character and makes you wonder who can ever trust you again if you're sitting in a room and you don't know if the individual is taking notes, writing something down in the videotaping you. it doesn't bode well for that individual's future. >> is there something about the president that encourages this behavior? >> no, not at all. the report i have is these very unhappy and very outraged. i don't think he appreciates this behavior one bit. at least nothing i've ever seen. neil: but maybe the loyalty you have to show respect and

loyalty. i just wonder. >> that's a good point. always good talking to you, my friend. best-selling author, served with the president as spokesman and advisor. we'll have more. i can't tell you who i am or what i witnessed, but i can tell you liberty mutual customized my car insurance so i only pay for what i need. oh no, no, no, no, no, no, no... only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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neil: you've heard by now the chinese talks resumed this week a chinese delegation led by vice premier. i think i'm pronouncing that right. you never know. saying they are not looking for any delays in the top as much as they are maybe delays in the implementation of terrorists, $200 million that could kick in. they want to at least to at least pushed us back or looked at the latest from edward lorenz. >> hey, neil. the vice premier's name. the talk starts to long. nurses in china say the vice premier left beijing today making its way to washington. his plane took off this morning. went to morning the two sides will sit down face-to-face. their partner language going into the wednesday meeting. the first of two days of talks. if china will put in structural changes to protect intellectual property and if they will open market access will attach and punishments to the agreement that they do not follow through.

u.s. trade representative considering suspending tariffs to snap back if china does not follow through or removing them all together with tariffs being added if they fail to make structural changes. all this happening while the u.s. is on the clock to file for my extradition papers in canada for the cfl. they will file by the deadline january 30th the same day they start here in d.c. a spokesman for the chinese foreign ministry says the u.s. needs to stop gnashing chinese enterprises adding it should offer a fair and fun environment for the two-way investment and normal cooperation between chinese and u.s. enterprises and showed promote mutual trust and cooperation between the two sides. we will see how that trust and cooperation goes from the chinese later on this week. >> thank you very much. does the president have a chance for a win the way things are standing right now. the china learning curve author

dan joseph is the chinese economy needs of the presidents wants. i was thinking you would be coming by at the economy is weakening. where does that put things here? >> what it means and thanks for having me on the show was china is running out of runway. slow rolling reform while running out of debt. they are simply run enough momentum. the data out of china is not exactly reliable. some data more than others. foreign companies reporting slowing sales, slowing profits in china. this is a broad slowdown in china running out of room. it is an estimated 300% gdp. conditions have never been more right to get serious about more reform which is what the trump administration is asking. neil: let's say they deliver and

as you indicated the last time, but that they're less able to not because they're deceitful as much as their economy is weakening and maybe much more so than the world is letting non. the caterpillar comes out with an announcement to rattle the markets to the degree it did in lowered its guidance because of what's happened in asia, notably china come you have to wonder whether something is going on. >> unfortunately it is true. when you have these kind of conditions they've created in the economy and then you create disruptions by reforming the economy, those two things can collide and create the stock market collapse we saw a few years ago in china. it is unfortunate the poor economic traditions sometimes make the short-term adjustment of reform difficult. at the end of the day of china doesn't realize it has to start biting the bullet again and introduce more major reforms are probably got more of a long-term

problem with china than we think. not to short-term trade talks. it has been 10 years since a major reform initiative has been announced and the economy showing the wear and tear. as if we see progress now, and businesses will really start worrying about where china's go in the next five to 10 years. >> or whether they want anything to do with china. act like tony soprano when it comes to american companies and a lot of fair information. it seems like a big old bully for lack of a better term. >> i've been doing in business in china for 25 years and companies ask me all the time what about the legal environment what about the regulatory environment, the quality, the personnel. for all those years the answer is this. not too good, but getting better. emerging markets have challenges. china is no different. for many years, the response is

always not great, but getting better. having looked reform down and not specifically addressing a number of issues, the getting better part is becoming less and less easy to substantiate. it's getting harder to operate and the slowing economy makes it harder still. if he keeps in this direction, china is opposed to a must-have destination where people are more tentative about entering and committing to. >> you think in the middle of negotiations on trade when they become front and enter, but they're not doing that. thank you very, very much. is a trend. democrats taking a percentage of their wealth, but it is wide spread. now will it spread? after this. ush us further?

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neil: cortez is talking about a top-rated 70%.

we've been advocating the superrich percentage of their wealth to the government and elizabeth warren beatty met charge. it does seem to be a common theme. >> why would you want to take that formula where there is prosperity, where jobs are out there for people, where people can pay their own way. take care of their families. why would you want to change that? >> i think there needs to be a more even sharing of the burden. i think that the wrong way for us to approach this question. charlie: particular rate like 70% top rate by congresswoman cortez and others. yeah, that's not where i would start. i don't even think it's productive for members to begin to signal where we should end up. neil: what's important is not all democrats are preaching on the same choir book. the idea is zeroing in on a much higher tax is not universal among democrats thursday session marks some form of higher taxes

coming regardless. if i could end with you, this notion that to a man or woman, lot of republicans and take a look at venezuela. this is what happens when you promise the sun, moon to folks. would you say? >> yeah. you're exactly correct in the lead to the segment that this is a divisive issue within my party. a lot of people can't get on board with congresswoman ocasio-cortez's plan of people making $10 million or more. that seems outrageous to us. in the party the longest. the plan that elizabeth warren propose sounds more reasonable. 2% and billionaires, that sounds more reasonable and i'll point out on a fox news poll pointed to bipartisan report.

they supported that and such as a support guy. i see that as being reasonable of ocasio-cortez not so much. neil: it's always the folks that would have to pay the bill. but it wouldn't be the first time. be careful what you wish for our start with. the plan that goes in phases, kamala harris. and boldness to remember remember when europe started is that tax that it would be a one-time 10% surcharge on goods and services that is now well north of 20% on top of the income taxes that were supposed to go away. i wonder where this is all headed. >> i just think robbins increasingly a man without a party and the reason i say that is look at all the presidential front runners right now for the

democratic party. kamala harris who announced yesterday it oakland with some centrists in the democratic party. she's advocating medicare for all the debt-free college, giving people a monthly stipend for living in america. she's going as far to the left as you can imagine him all these issues and she's framed at the middle of the party. the democratic party is losing space for its moderates. anybody who says we shouldn't punish people is basically out. they're not considered to have a mainstream view anymore. the parties move far far to the left. >> you could say the same thing about republicans far far to the right. who is a brave politician right or left double come forward to say you can pay more for this government to afford it far more to pay for promises to try to afford it. fact of the matter is the underlying government itself and the amount of money spent on benefit and related programs,

that is not sustainable to labor going now. both parties have to look americans in the face and tell them not. americans are quite smart, quite pragmatic, quite reasonable and open to ideas. when you ignore the problem is the price americans that the last decade we might take social security way we might cut medicare payment. unthinkable and as unfathomable as fact, and >> you're exactly right. i'm glad you brought that up. a lot of time this is campaign politics. we've been talking about this for more than a decade and i get it. they're running on the issue. they support the issue by and large. but we need more reasonable voices in the room. he is someone that i think has something to bring to the table and i'm disappointed he's not yet announced whether or not he's going to run for president. neil: one thing i do notice and

howard schultz comments as he's worried about the debt. bloomberg is worried about the data. a lot of people in both parties who certainly are privately worried about the debt that they don't think of the campaign. it might not be, but it should be. >> they were too few people now who voiced concern over that. howard schultz is among them. you go back to someone like alexandria ocasio-cortez. she thinks we don't need to pay for anything. they believed get rid of pay-as-you-go rules. we don't need to pay for it. let's just pass it. it got her job to get these programs under our belt. howard schultz does have that going for him. beyond that he has a pretty progressives social agenda and it's hard for me to imagine a bunch of republican voters saying howard schultz that's my guy. >> someone can come forward and do so with a smart non-partisan bickering way.

it could be very naïve. probably am. >> never. neil: thank you very much. the latest right now on whether we can avoid a shutdown in 2.5 weeks because it's looking increasingly like the president is leaving that out there as an option. after this. off, and neither will i. and i treat my mbc with everyday verzenio- the only one of its kind that can be taken every day. in fact, verzenio is a cdk4 & 6 inhibitor for postmenopausal women with hr+, her2- metastatic breast cancer, approved, with hormonal therapy, as an everyday treatment for a relentless disease. verzenio + an ai is proven to help women have significantly more time without disease progression, and more than half of women saw their tumors shrink vs an ai. diarrhea is common, may be severe, and may cause dehydration or infection. before taking verzenio, tell your doctor if you have

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>> a lot of these folks are coming and saying as nancy pelosi said at does serve a purpose as steny hoyer said. the question is that we can get this outside get this outsider trump and pelosi who have just decided to go back and forth to each other and look at it more analytically by getting members together and saying okay, can we agree is hurt and things that make common sense. and then it's a product of bears versus a product of the back-and-forth between the president and the speaker. we might be able to get something done and avoid all of this. neil: albright, and "the wall street journal" right now says

the odds of doing just that are less than 50/50 right now on the 2.5 weeks we have left whether we can avoid a government shutdown. blake burman at the latest on a shutdown. >> earlier from press secretary sarah sanders but some 41 days we have yet to hear from president trump today. he did give us a bit of insight over the weekend in a tweet in which both sides are dug in at the 21 days goes faster than you think. "the wall street journal" in an interview that it's less than a 50/50 coin flip as to what the folks up on capitol hill, and members of the houston panic, whether they can get anything together that the president would eventually sign. the white house says the group is going to meet on wednesday with border security expert and the white house now is starting to put the onus on that group to put something together that the

president will back. mercedes schlock, church or white house strategic communications earlier today. >> i think at this point it's up to them to come up with a good plan the president will decide if that will be enough resources to ensure we secure the border. >> president trump still standing behind his request or demand at this point for five by $7 billion dedicated towards the border wall. speaking of numbers. do not show -- not so shiny numbers as they believed the impact for the longest government shutdown never $18 billion in federal spending was delayed from $11 billion in gdp reduced. some of that will come back in the future. they predict gdp will be reduced by .02% for 2019. a slight amount when you factor at all in. nancy pelosi just released a statement moments ago calling the shots down and pointing to

the cbo report on the shutdown is devastating, saying that is the reason why we do not need another one again in 19 days, which president trump over the weekend as his quote, certainly an option. >> blake burman. thank you very, very much. what is happening on the earnings front and the technology front. after this.

>> welcome back to coast to coast. sentiment on the floor of the new york stock exchange. off the session, but still triple digit losses for the dow. caterpillar is certainly influence sentiment. a sickly mispronouncing expectations for fourth-quarter earnings. earnings for the rest of the year will be slightly lower than what the analyst community was looking for. caterpillar talking about lower demand from china. on the know you have other industrials laying down the dow was well. worth about 85 points off the dow right now. boeing is going to be reporting earnings on wednesday. another industrial prion out on tuesday. similar pattern happening in technology he. down around 15%.

huge earnings for tech shares as well. of course we will be hearing from apple, amazon, microsoft. facebook. the list is really long. 25% of the s&p 500 companies will be reporting earnings this week and on top of the earnings story there is also great investor anticipation ahead of the meetings in washington d.c. u.s. and china is what investors are looking for and of course the trump card here, which is the fed meeting and chairman jay powell whether or not he will indicate that the fed is still data dependent or not. three of the teams following year for the new york stock exchange. back to you. neil: that's a lot of work for us. what happens today, tomorrow and when day. thank you very much. the former dallas adviser, she's going to be focusing on the federal reserve part of that.

after a conference i guess is not expected to raise rates. would you look for? >> absolutely. this is our first live january fomc meeting pretty much ever in the history of the united states. people are looking towards the press conference. they'll also be keen to see whether or not a word gradual is deleted from the statement, meaning the fed is no longer presupposed pat of raising interest rates every quarter. we all know that's off the table at this point. markets will do an internship there to whether or not powell is going to nod at head of the industrials group of whether or not he will not attack but there's obviously slowing in the industrial complex and whether that should play into the fed's shrinking of its balance sheet at a clip of $50 billion a

month. the 50 billion come and go in on his continuing in the background market players more interested in knowing what is going to take for him to pull back on not de facto second form tightening. neil: we are well over $4 trillion on the balance sheet. the federal reserve is enough all of this and everything it could get its hot pants on. but that is not appreciably fallen not much in the signal seems to be don't hold your breath because it's not going. >> well, it really is going to be a wait-and-see situation. when the federal reserve is rolling out quantitative easing and lauding it as being beneficial to the economy and being a synthetic way of bringing interest rates down after interest rates at the zero balance. they did back of the envelope math is adjusted every $200 billion of quantitative easing equated to a quarter base

based on that calculation in reverse, that means every four months the fed has effectively executing a 25 aces point increase, tightening into interest rates and people want to know if it's going to stop. neil: what they've been doing lately is letting whatever the charities they are mature. not to sell or try to find buyers for a lot of this stuff. but it's still problematic, right? >> it is still problematic. it is certainly problematic for the emerging market complex. other countries have so much of their debt denominated in dollars for a tidy much more protracted effect off of our borders but we've begun to see it indeed has had a very slowing impact here in the united states especially on the housing market. as we see the regional federal reserve manufacturing surveys come out, we are definitely seeing slowing bleeding through into employment growth. turn into if they were to go

back to this and god forbid everything we did a decade ago, they would have fewer proverbial arrows. you would be starting from something much higher. >> that is absolutely right. a friend of mine this morning said when he woke up and saw the news in caterpillar nvidia, there was a report this morning and said this feels a lot like october 2007. that's a lifetime ago. in october 2007 the market finally started to understand the fed was going to ease, but at the same time the earnings report and economic data were so strong to the negative that it didn't matter what the fed's plans were that the protracted effect of tightening and how that was hitting the economy was something they couldn't correct for and we know what happened in the markets. neil: absolutely. thank you very much for the history lesson.

i appreciate it. this much i can tell you in english to describe the weather that is coming. more after this. even push us further? it could, if we took the time to listen. the most inspiring minds, the most compelling stories. download audible and listen for a change.

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neil: had no idea. when did the graphic get so scary, right? maybe i seen it before but i don't remember seeing it before but it is officially scary. we have a lot of animation.

highs for half of the country will be below zero, not with the windchill that is the number. phil flynn, prices are potentially moving up, it will cost a lot to heat homes. costs more potentially to get it back what you like, when it is a whole lot colder outside. what are we looking at? >> good thing, probably too cold to get your heating bill out of your mailbox. it will be a lot higher than we've experienced in years past. we haven't experienced this type of cold, or sustained cold in, many years. people are to the used to the bump it will show in your weekly bill. not that the prices of natural gas are going up or heating oil are going up. your usage will be a lot higher than it has been in last years. that means not only this week and next week will your bills be higher, but year-over-year, your heating bills on the whole could be as much as 10% higher than

they were last year. now interestingly enough there is some hope on the futures market. we're looking at natural gas and heating oil, we're going from ridiculous cold to just kind of cold in february. we're predict ridiculous cold all throughout february. it might moderate a little bit. futures are showing hope, maybe we get sense before this. make no mistake about it, there will be a real challenges for energy industry over next couple days. these record cold temperatures, not only will have to deal with transportation issues, getting heating oil where it needs to be, production issues, because of wells freezing up, frozen pipelines, you name it. this is all potentially impact prices over the next couple days. so even though we're seeing a little calm before the winter storm, it ain't over yet. neil: let me switch to venezuela. we look at oil there. i know we've been not dealing with them for a while as as much

of western world. others have. disruption and violence in the country with two guys competing to be duly recognized president of the country, what do you envision? >> i think that will be a major problem for u.s. consumers. venezuela, people don't realize, many refineries along the gulf coast are dependent on type of oil venezuela produces. there is a very strong possibility that this, you know, this situation in venezuela could lead to a total cutoff of venezuelan oil supplies. those type of supplies will not be easily replaced. what does that mean for the consumer? they're going to have to see higher gasoline prices, higher diesel prices over time because refineries may even have to shut their doors because they can't get their hands on this group. listen, i know we're producing a lot of crude in this country, shale oil. the truth of the matter, a lot of our refiners can't refine it the way they want to or produce type of products that you and i

need to stay warm to get from point a to point b, prices could subs standingsly go higher if this continues to fall apart. neil: this is a nat-gas phenomenon and what do you notice there. >> it really was. we saw anticipation called the market skyrocketed. we saw a change in the weather models on sunday night that caused prices to fall back down. one of the things that is keeping natural gas from spinning out of control is that u.s. is producing so much more natural gas than they would have couple years ago. if we would have got this type of cold three years ago the price of natural gas per million metric btu is $10. now we're barely hanging on three dollars. that is testament to the great job u.s. natural gas producers have done. neil: i can remember a time we were at mercy of the world. now we're setting the tune. thank you, my friend. always great. >> thank you. neil: phil flynn in chicago

where they will get hit, besides the snow, they already have, cold weather to come. this could be a test for the country. just look out the window. charles payne to take you through the next hour. hey, charles. charles: neil a test for the markets. believe it or not down 273. not too bad so far. neil: not so far. charles: we'll see what next couple hours bring. thank you, neil. this is "making money." markets in the red after a big earnings miss from caterpillar. with more than 100 companies and 13 s&p companies reporting this week could we see a turnaround? trade talks with china, will a delegation from beijing bring a fair deal? we'll figure out the possible scenarios. liz bet warren find as new target when a nfl owner buy as new yacht with