guaido's top aide. that is escalation of the venezuela crisis. it is not a crisis but what we got is a 400 point loss for the dow industrials. that is where we are now. that is what, neil, i'm sure you're on about. go ahead, sir. neil: stuart. neil: thank you, very, very much. interest rates go down, in fact way down. all of sudden you have stocks going down as well. what is interesting here what a lot of market technicians follow the rate gap between what you get for three-month treasury note and what you get for a 10-year note. if you commit money for three months, get more bang for the buck than you do 10 years. that was the case. we hadn't seen that since 2007. that was driven by interest rates in germany turning negative for a while today. 10-year bund going into negative territory. that itself on top of industrial reports coming out of germany, italy, portugal, spain, others showing a distinct slowdown.

we know the slowdown through the rest of europe. some of that punctuated throughout asia as well. the fear seems to be even if we're able to resist all of that, the headwinds are coming here. how we sustain those is anyone's guess. the president already indicated that if not for the federal reserve tightening rates sooner than expected, not ending that, as he had said sooner than he had hoped, we would be in a lot better shape. our gdp would be moving 4% clip, than the sub3% clip it does now. stocks in and out of session lows. boeing dealing with more negative headlines. we'll deal with that in a second. anything that wore brings folks, when you see anomaly in interest rates, super short-term rates exceed the yield of 10-year note, for example, typically, typically the fear is it leads to recession. that has been the case since post-1974. some are pouncing on that, to

say it happened again. recessions not allowed or ruled out, whether this is the catalyst. that is the fear for time being. we have rose cliff capital founder mike murphy. dan -- and late but not least my buddy charles payne. charles, that historical phenomenon, do you buy it? even if it's a brief moment, where short term, really short-term rates eclipse that of say a 10-year note, you have trouble? >> it would have to be more than just today. historically period of time, 10 days to two weeks. even then it could be up to two years before you have actual recession. neil: we always, recession is coming. we don't know when. we haven't gone away. >> economy is cyclical. it will come at some point. which is interesting going back to the big fed announcement this week. while the fed may have seen slowing in the economy. one hand it was argued all of that last week they were getting

weaponry to fight a potential recession. so it is really interesting. we'll see how long this inversion lasts. i don't think we're going to have recession this year but you never know, end of the year, next year, right now i don't think it will happen. more about concerns. still some confusion over jay powell's sharp, sharp, reversal from going hiking two times to none and also what's happening abroad. neil: i did want to pursue that, i'm just asking for it out of the blue, but maria bartiromo sit down with the president which he brought up the federal reserve and the president did cite the fact, not to say i told you so but all but said i told you so that jerome powell over played it. i want you to react tonight the world is slowing but we're not slowing. frankly if we didn't have somebody that would raise interest rates and do quantitative tightening we would be over four instead of 3.1. neil: what do you think of that? >> president trump will stay on

one his favorite whipping boys, jerome powell, will keep reminding him, don't even think about raising interest rates. neil: don't even think hanging this on me. >> i think he will keep on with that, as far as the economy goes, neil, here is reason i don't think we'll slip into recession. we have a big drag called tariffs, looming out there. i still believe, i keep saying that we're going to get a deal with china. once we do, i think that is going to just pick up the economy and the united states and also help china which will help the world economy. that is what i think. >> i think markets reacting today to the inverted yield curve we got this morning. neil: do you buy that is significant to you? >> i don't. i think the fed made a huge mistake here. the fed came out six months ago said they would be raising rates. that caused a 20% pullback correction in the market. now they come out and say we got that wrong but over the next 18 or 24 months we'll only raise rates once.

i think market is interpreting that -- neil: might be overreacting. >> completely overreacting. i don't know why they didn't come out to say, hey, we're data dependent. if things start to overheat we will act f they start to slow down we will act. neil: maybe the president was right on this, they overplayed it? >> i think president in recent hindsight six months ago the fed definitely over played it. that is what you're getting. this is this great time for people to buy 400 point pullbacks, look for great names with great earnings. look for opportunities to invest in money. neil: the guy was doing that in last serious downdraft was charles payne. would you play it the same way, are you bullish? >> i am still bullish. i'm admit i'm worried about financials with those low yields. neil: they have been suffering slowdown in economy, presumably a slowdown in lending. >> margins get right. neil: right, right. >> last january all the

brilliant folks, i won't say all, i got a couple brilliant here that didn't say that, said my favorite sector is the financials. this january, almost all the brilliant folks said my favorite sector the financials. what is the worst sector this year? the financials. you have to wonder what is wrong with the banks? other than that i agree with what you're saying and what jay powell said. 2/3 of the economy is the consumer. waynes are going up, i think the best thing the fed said, jay powell said, wage inflation is not price inflation. we needed to hear that. we needed to hear that because for so long the instinct was, as soon as wages go up, let's derail the economy. wage inflation is not price inmation. he said it. employment is phenomenal, labor participation is improving. that is 2/3 of the economy. we get some business investment particularly after the trade deal is done and that is the

elects -- elixir i think to keep the economy going. neil: now i'm not so sure, i hear about the slowdown going on in europe. president is fighting with everybody. i'm just boeing to stay out, what do you tell people? >> i tell you if you could time the market that well let me in on the secret. you can't time the market. if you're in, you're in. i think this is a good time to be in. i keep going back to i think a trade deal with china will be enormously beneficial to both the economy and -- neil: what do you tell of people who have never been in whether time to get in? one thing to absorb it, long-term investor you ride it out, just fine, people getting heady about this, i want in now at these less? >> i still think it is okay to go in at that point, neil. bo in the market, stay in, ride it out. it will go up and down. i still think best days of market are ahead of us.

>> i think that is the important point. are you going in to become a long term investor? are you just playing this like a day at the races? we have two distinct different things. trade it on monday. maybe this isn't for you. >> i'll answer that, we saw last pullback in the markets, saw technology get really hit really hard, apples and amazons of the world. neil: they have come back. >> they have come back. look at financials. look at a name like bank of america, if you watch that, 26, 27 seems like a buy area. it gets back to the 30 range. the macro problem for the financials in this country where i play a lot is venture capital. i think a lot of tech companies, startup companies are moving a lot quicker. having major impact on the business. neil: we're told that crowd, far better than i is having a tough time finding value. warren buffett will say it is always harder to fine cases today. >> of value? yeah. i think a lot of people are coming earlier, looking to get into the ubers and the the lighs

lyfts. readied to welcome companies in. will there be rotation out of other companies in the indices, yes. that will hurt some of them but money will to where the growth is. if you talk about uber, lyft -- neil: i always worry, frenetic activity, around levi strauss, might be perfectly valid, 150-year-old company, something, fine, i get it, but pent-up demand for this sometimes not in keeping with the underlying value to me. i don't get it. >> to charles' point from a trade standpoint i don't know if you buy to make a quick buck. if you believe in the company, believe in the business and turn-around story -- neil: but sheer number of them what i'm saying, do you worry

that itself is too giddy? >> won't all work, finding ones that can find support and value. >> i will go in depth on my show. neil: you know that. >> i've been on all sides of it. i was a broker. i know how exciting it is as broker to get an hot ipo. i know from investor point of view, big investors how to be rewarded with ipo, taking my own company public how great it is to cash out. who is not winning in this equation. occasionally could be investor who buys a stock at that was priced at 1, today at 23. to your point, to your point, maybe some you wait. it is exciting, it is very exciting for these names, these household names that the general public now get as bite at apple. what happened with snap, biggest one last year, crushed. even facebook went down for six months. you're right, people have to be very careful when you chase these, what you wan to be. if you think you will chase them on the first day of trading make a lot of money, that may not be

the case. neil: quickly, the dow down 383, whatever, you're looking beyond this? you like this overall market still? >> i like the overall market. i will love it a lot more when the dow gets 26,000. neil: write that down. buddy, final word? >> i go with it. charles are right. best days are ahead. stay in. neil: all good karma. >> it is all good karma. neil: meantime we'll look at whether another factor for the market could come, sooner than you think, no one knows for sure. that mueller report, when it companies out no matter what it says how do stocks respond? after this.

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neil: the president arrived in palm beach, florida, in mar-a-lago. they shout ad couple questions to them, he responded to couple of them. steve moore and federal reserve. see if we can hear anything. you really can't hear. upper right-hand corner he arrived. in the scrum of reporters sometimes they shout out questions. sometimes he responds, one to an isis question about his conviction that isis has been defeated and is stopped and that it is official. and again, as i mentioned a little bit earlier about steve moore, intending to nominate him to the federal reserve. thinks we will do a good job. if we get anymore out of these interesting exchanges we shall see. president's battle with

general motors over past couple weeks, gm was getting a great deal of flak opening the ohio plant but it is opening a new one. jeff flock had a chance to speak with ceo mary barra, who acknowledged that pressure is out there. hey, jeff. good to see you. reporter: well, we'll tell you, neil, if the president is still mad at general motors, i can report to you that general motors is not mad at the president over his criticism, that is the image they portrayed today in the person mary barra. we're here at orion township plant. chevy bolts and chevy sonics manufactured here. they announced they will soon build a all new electric vehicle they were going to build in china, instead they're bringing it back here. of course the obvious question from me to mary barra, is this all in response to the president's criticism? for instance, bloomberg throw it

up as you're throwing the president a bone. is that true? >> when we talk about jobs investing in the u.s. workforce and the american worker that is where general motors and i think the president are very aligned. we want to create jobs, booed-paying jobs. when look having strong economy, we're having decisions to make sure general motors is strong company. that allows us to make announcements today, investing in the future with all new electric vehicle. reporter: do you worry, much less the general public, much less the president, doesn't understand the complexity of the auto industry? i don't want to put you on the spot in terms of being critical but it's a very complex business that you run. >> an auto company is a complex business but i take responsibility we have to do a better job making sure people understand the long lead of our business, complex supply chain. but i think the most important thing that we are committed to the united states, make, no there is no doubt about that. we're committed not only maintaining jobs we have here

but growing them and i think that is very important because the auto industry provides very good-paying jobs. reporter: the other thing that she told us, neil, that the usmca, the new trade dale between the u.s., mexico and canada, was instrumental in this decision. she said those new rules of origin requirements, that is to say, a certain amount of each vehicle has to be built in north america, that is one of the reasons that they brought this vehicle, vehicle back from china to be built here. so, as i said, president may be mad at gm but they say, they're doing a net hire, they're not mad at him. neil: i was fascinated by the interview. i thought you were very tactful, judicious in her responses. seems to me you're closer to this, no march for about it, this would not happen today, 400 new jobs, for the electric vehicle would not have been happening if not for the other environment around, that ohio plant closing.

just my initial reaction. reporter: one pr person from gm told me, went to great pains to prove to me this was on docket for some time. they don't want to be seen reacting to that pressure. mary barra made the point. i have to run the company way i see fit. we'll go down a bad road. we've been down the road before, we saw that movie. we don't want that again. neil: i'm so tempted to do the monty python thought bub, when she is answering a question, what she really thinks. we'll let that go. always a great job. reporter: obama anger translator, who used to say what obama was really thinking? she might need a anger translator. neil: what the heck. jeff, thank you very, very much. quickly go to florida right now. beautiful day there. president arrived at palm beach airport. spending the weekend at mar-a-lago. that was the same local --

locale, this was same weekend the president booked with xi xinping to sign off on a trade deal. that is not happening yet. it could still in the weeks, months ahead. go to chris bedford, if and when we might see it. chris, good to have you. so. >> good to see you. neil: what do you think? >> this is good message to the chinese, expanding their business in china wins around the caribbean. fon from small amount of investment 30 years, massive amounts, building infrastructure ships. naval incursions into the caribbean. pouring hundreds of billions of dollars, comes with expectations countries like jamaica allow them to have special privileges. taking revenue from the tolls or building long highways that they're building f president trump wants to push his more monroe doctrine, we take care of our backyard foreign policy,

caribbean border, this weekend would be a deal with china, good to talk about that. neil: do you think that is the strategy, send a message. go on with tariffs in effect as we are, deal with people with who we will have better go of it? >> yes. china is trying to pass as many deals they could with the caribbean governments. a lot of them have been considered, china says win-win deal, but the opposition parties are seeing a lot of concessions driven by the nations, much, much smaller than china. they're hiring chinese workers the doing a lot in the caribbean. not only that, they're a friend of venezuela. getting a little lukewarm. that is another crisis in our backyard that president trump wants to solve this could be message in that direction. neil: work with those guys to help do that. quickly your thoughts on the president keen nominating steve moore to the federal reserve. talk about a bull in a china shop, no matter what you think of him, i think he is sending a

message to jerome powell, other fomc members. what do you think of that? >> he is classic outsider. i've been following steve moore, fox, heritage foundation for years now. he is a brilliant economist. he is also someone who wouldn't be the classic banker coming in there. he has got strong ideas. he would shake it up. neil: all right. we'll watch closely, thank you my friend. chris bedford. "daily caller" news foundation out of washington, d.c. dow down. interest rates, down, lowest they have been in some cases 14 months. when you come to something called the yield curve, you hear that a lot. i try to avoid the wonk talk. sufficient fist it to say you for a while were getting more money holding it for three months, than for 10 years. when that kind of thing happenses a briefly for a while today, it is presages a recession. now a lot of people, just make a distinction there, depends how long the phenomenon lasts in and out in an hour don't worry about

it. the phenomenon is real worldwide. in europe rates are tumbling. in germany they hit negative territory. what that means you give money to german bank you pay them to keep it for you. very few take advantage of the offer. so they don't. banks suffer. this is not good variety for them or anybody if it keeps on going. more after this. if ywhen you brush or floss, you don't have to choose between healthy gums and strong teeth. complete protection from parodontax has 8 designed benefits for healthy gums and strong teeth. complete protection from parodontax.

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be careful with that sort of language because it could galvanize them popping up somewhere else or morphing into other terror groups. a lot of types, despite that improvement what is happening with the economy, despite what is going on in the markets does he get in the way of his own message going after john mccain, kellyanne conway's husband or other fights that get in way of good news? gabby, this knit the first time the president used map to illustrate progress on isis. down to their last battle, last dregs, they're on the run all the which is true. doesn't mean they're eradicated, it is good story but one that gets lost because of other comments he makes, what do you make of that? >> he stepped on his own messaging. the president has weeks where he

gets totally off message, talks about everything as you mentioned john mccain to other, personal grievances that he has with various senators or lawmakers or aides. we saw that play out this week with his, him weighing in on the marital issues between kellyanne conway and her husband and repeatedly bringing upjohn mccain. even in ohio in front of a crowd of veterans who actually didn't seem as receptive to that sort of attack line as his previous rally crowds have. and neil, this is actually a huge concern for a lot of gop donors heading into 2020 as the president gears up for the re-election campaign. we reported previously that there are a number of donors who may have given to him back in 2016 but are a bit reluctant to do so again because they're not quite sure if he can stick to a message that talks about the economic prosperity that we're seeing under his administration, the deregulation, type of things voters want to hear as opposed to these daily grievances and comments on things that are so

trivial compared to others. neil: that might in fact be the case, but antwan, a number of same experts look at democratic field thus far, maybe that is blessing for this president because they look a little nutty as far as coming out the gate. i'm curious as to whether you think democrats are breathing a sigh of relief because they tend not to make a big deal out of what is happening at the border, not calling it an emergency, in fact at least over last couple days, with a lot of the ongoing pressures it is turning into an emergency but because of the president's comments it is lost in the sauce, what do you think? >> any person who expects donald trump to behave or stay on message i can just tell them in advance that dog will not hunt. trump thrives off chaos, confusion, anger and frustration. when he makes comments, when he tweets and when he acts the way he does because that is his normalcy. that is how some argue he got

his way to the white house and that -- neil: you argue maybe there is a strategy to it here, just like other things, mueller report or what? >> absolutely. with donald trump everything is a distraction. somehow those of us who are in this business and even those who covered in the media, we tend to follow the shiny object, whatever he tweets, what he says, sticking to real task at hand. i warn my democratic friend, don't have personality arguments with trump, focus on policies. we will never win a personality argument. neil: you have personality disruptions within your own ranks. lauren, how do republicans play this out? president still sticks around 40, 42% overall approval rating, not historically great, not historically awful either. there are surveys by cnn no less, seven in 10 americans are happy with the economy. five out of 10 give him credit for it. so is that enough that

republicans are convinced to get them to the finish line for another four years of the white house? >> you know it depend. you look at the historical models previously and look just how well the economy is doing right now and based off of president's re-election and where he is in the polling, it has, there is predictions he would win 2020 handily just based on his numbers and, how well the economy is doing and how people feel about the economy. however president trump is not your normal president and, so i don't know that we can ever look at past models as predicting future behavior in this presidency. that being said, he feels very strongly that social media is the key to his success here because he can speak directly to the american people and deliver messages he doesn't think the media will deliver. however he does step on his own messages as a republican that gets me concerned because i'm looking for him to unite us ahead of 2020, make sure we're in lockstep against the

democrats and their socialist policies and some of these more radical ideas. >> lauren, please don't do this. please don't. >> oh, i am. i am going there because they want to dismantle a lot of success trump built up and how well the economy is doing right now. you know, we have such a successful country because of some of the deregulation that has been happening under this administration. so i think president trump really should be pounding that. that is successful message. neil: you have got to admit, on the economy alone, you can differ whether the president is responsible for it he say he should be up 10 more points in the polls. because of that he is in the fight for his life. >> neil that is part of it -- neil: don't call me neil cavuto because we know each other. >> the economy is part of it. you and i talked about this before, you disagreed with me before, i hope you agree with me now, economy yes, it is important, not on top of mind of voters as midterms proved themselves in 2018. i believe we're going to see repeat of that for what the mood of the country is, what mood

of -- neil: you would rightly argued ahead of time it was health care about concerns about that it was. i don't know in two years whether it will be. is it your sense, gabby the president, less he talks or goes off topic more likely he could pull this out? >> i think there is, a lot of republicans who are in his ear telling him that is the case, neil. that he just needs to stick to the message, talk up the economy, talk up the administration deregulatory efforts he will sail to re-election but on other hand just as many advisors in the white house who say his base and independents sort of love his anti-establishment, his -- rhetoric and -- neil: i got an earful from them. one of them emailed me, cavuto, what have you done with your life. you read a prompter? what else did they say. prompter move up. you just read a prompter. we'll see. still early as you all indicate

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deduction, not bigger breaks on mortgage. you would think they would cool on idea of buying a house. this doesn't show that at all. shows continued strong demand. most people have jobs. wages are rising. you're getting mixed signals compared to what is going on in the housing market, compared to the stock market. housing numbers for february, i think if anything the housing numbers have something important to say about the next step for the stock market. i think it is good news. neil: a lot of people look at that what am i doing about my portfolio as i get closer to go to retirement whatever. how do i play that housing news? what do you tell them? >> if you're approaching retirement and part of your retirement plan was to sell your house this, is a good environment. you know, you see that stock decline, say, you think, well, could housing weaken next? keep in mind the biggest, the most important force in the financial universe right now is falling interest rates. we've had falling mortgage rates. that is caused more people to go out to shop for a home.

today people are saying, stock market, saying falling interest rates mean that the economy might weaken? that sort of thing? that is making stock investors nervous. but down the stretch, what is really going to matter what are your other choices to do something with your money, right? you will not fine great bond yields. you will not find much higher rates on savings accounts at your bank. corporate america is still pretty strong right here. so as these rates come down, i think it speaks to continued strength for housing, probably continued strength for the stock market. neil: all right. from your mouth. all right, jack, good seeing you again. thank you very, very much. separately the european union is given a brexit delay, okay. parliament is another issue. scott shellady following all the other developments. i guess they're pushing another few weeks but they seem to be limping along from deadline to deadline. what do you think? >> playing out much the same over here, right? think about it, donald trump

elected president. we have to wait for congress to ratify that election that is basically what you're waiting for. people voted to leave europe. now they're waiting for members of parliament to come up with a deal how they're leaving. members of parliament, all of them voted personally, a majority voted personally to stay in europe. neil: that's right. >> they don't want to leave the swamp. they don't want to leave the swamp. they love the sewer. that is why they're taking so long. they're conflicted working out will of the people. but at the same time that is not what they want personally. that is a big problem. she got another week's delay. at end of the day talk to the man on the street, neil. they want a hard brexit. they don't care. they want out. neil: had they done hard brexit, three years later we would have sorted this out. scott, i always get the sense, that the media goes after something, mainstream or otherwise. consensus was this would be cataclysmic if it were come to pass. cataclysmic for whom? i think everyone says cataclysmic for london.

i bet it is more cataclysmic for brussels, because in their heart of hearts they know, britain leaves, it will be bumpy. i don't think people will starve or not be able to get medicines, all that other nonsense. >> no. neil: the sun will come up on the british empire the next day. people will discover, it is not end of the world. all the other countries in the european union, they are not qualified to be, they don't want to be, will start saying hey, i want out too, italy, spain, portugal. i could go on and on. the club all of sudden gets seriously big. what do you think? >> you're exactly right. first person to bring it up. i will put it in real simple terms. we've seen a lot of these economic indicators say france and germany for starters start to tank over the last, six, eight, 12 months. we're all on the same page as far as growth in set set of but it faltered in 2018? do you know why? they're cutting their nose off to spite their face. they're being tough on britain, but it caused brits to be

stalemate what they're not going to do next. they have stopped being customer of france and germany. that is why their numbers are plummeting. they haven't gotten that through their heads. the better they treat great britain, the better economieses they get. they're punishing them. they're hurting themselves at home more. that is real interesting point. neil: people who follow very closely like you, are well aware that the fastest growing economy in europe right now, is britain. and. >> yep. neil: that is with all of this going on. i begin to wonder, europeans are getting very nervous. their view is the world view. if britain goes, they're the crazy ones. they were the ones that will suffer. border will close. brits can't get medicine or food. it is really scary tactic being used when in fact the european union is worried, if they bolt, that club is fon. it is just gone.

if will break a part. >> this is how i tell it over dinner, right? america, 50 states, roughly the same start. definitely the same culture, definitely the same language. every year we have to worry about california and texas taking off. now you take 28 countries, no same start date, no same language, no same language that is a good idea to put them together? when it started i thought it was crazy then. i think it is crazy now. they can be a trading block. they don't have to be in bed together. i don't get it. neil: that is the next thing sorted out. not will be the inding is telegraphed by most major papers. scott shellady. uncanny read of the markets. he zigs when others zags. if you listen to him you would come out of the meltdown just fine and dealt with the december falloff just fine. meanwhile the dow at session lows today. this has to do, speaking of europe, that is not a british slowdown i might point out. not the brits who are shing a

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>> my attitude is? i wouldn't mind. i would love to have biden, i would love to have bernie. i would love to have beto. beto is the one that the press has chosen. the press seems to chosen beto. >> is this socialism versus capitalism? >> when i watch beto, i say, we could dream about that. neil: so his ideal opponent seems to be beto o'rourke. the president talking to our maria bartiromo on that with a number of topics, salivating at prospect he thinks that the democratic field is easily beatable. you focused on the hand gestures, all of that, would be the guy. charlie gasparino, what donors think of that and the whole beto phenomenon. what do you think? >> you know, i don't think he has come out of the gate too impressively.

once you start looking at beto's background, some of the weirdness. listen if you want to go from, if your mantra i will restore some sort of sensibility and normalcy to the white house is beto o'rourke, who, you know, talks about eating dirt and weird stuff, i mean he takes trump weirdness to another level, stuff that you can't even mention on tv, i read about it on twitter. neil: you always say that but you do. >> i will not do that this time. i don't think he is the guy. that said -- neil: money guys seem to like him. >> yeah. i will tell you this, i speak with a bunch of money guys, they told me simply this, beto ran for governor, ran for senate from texas. din think he was going to win. he didn't think he would even do as well as he did but it was all about introducing himself to the public. he wants to hold national office and raising money. if you notice a lot of money he raised is using now. he is using all the fund-raising

lists. so he does have, he does have some positives. i think a lot of people aren't, they basically think he is not ready to be president. look at him more as a vice president. he might be kamala harris's vice president if she wins. neil: speaking of vice president, there is announcement that maybe joe biden will preannounce his running mate. >> i was speaking someone close to stacey abrams. neil: the former gubernatorial candidate. >> who almost won. they're not saying no but they're dismissive of the idea. this is what this person told me, granted he is close to stacey abrams. thinks that stacey abrams gives up too much. biden gets more than she gets, right? neil: she gets national stature. >> but it's a weird national stature. like pre-election. not like he won and she gets it. it is this. she basically gives him the nomination. you know, she makes him president. that is a big thing. neil: she makes herself

vice president. >> yeah, maybe. neil: they think it is risky. she wants to be governor. and so, so it is, they also said, what they did tell me, like, she has spoken with biden. she continues, they're still speaking with the staff but -- neil: if he goes that route, she is the person. >> maybe. they are not convinces he is going that route either. neil: i always think it looks patently convenient as it did for ronald reagan in 1976 he picked senator schweikert as running mate to woo pennsylvania delegation. that was at republican convention. it was pretty transparent. it failed. it didn't work because it always looks gimmicky. this is before the race effectively will start. i don't know. >> i say, yes, i will speak this when i look at democrats, they are looking at numbers. they think the electoral map favors them so heavily this time

that, barring a bernie sanders, they can win. neil: they're convinced of that, right? >> they were convinced last time too, right? neil: yeah. >> they look at the states trump, three states, a.b. stoddard spoke about three states it took. very thin margin. they look at that they look how competitive races could be in arizona, in texas, in georgia. neil: okay. buddy, thank you very much. as you were speaking i didn't mean to look away from you. we're getting word the united kingdom will buy five boeing surveillance planes for $2 billion. these are not the 737 max planes at issue. a sign of confidence as indonesia is cutting back on future orders of these planes. that the united kingdom is buying separate planes for $2 billion. a pup for boeing. more -- pick up for boeing. we'll have more after this. without knowing firsthand

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neil: all right. we have stocks down about 384 points all because interest rates are tumbling. generally low interest rates, people love that, it's a good environment, you can buy more homes with that. the reason why mortgage rates drop, people herald that news. when they get too low, especially to the point they did today and they did in europe, they start worrying what's going on here. a slowdown is the paramount theme, especially in germany, where rates were negative for awhile. the ten-year, for example, was returning a negative 0.2%. the upside of that is germany, if you want to pack that money away, you have to pay them to hang on to it which is a little weird and why very few people do so and why it even exaggerates the slowdown. we also had an anomaly in the united states where the gap between a three-month treasury bill yields and a ten-year yield is sort of inverted. you got more for your money holding it for three months than forverted yield doif.

when it happens, it presages a recession. a lot of technicians get into this far more than i think they should. they should get out and have some fun, maybe watch a game, you know, or watch us. depends how long it's inverted. if it's just a day, doesn't mean anything. if it's a few days, it means more. i haven't looked into the history on that, but that's what's out there. that's what's hitting stocks. that and so far, no progress on the chinese trade front, weak economic numbers. revenue numbers, the likes of nike, particularly figure weakness in north american sales. we have seen weakness in europe and asia but the north american sales and their dropoff jostled it a bit. let's get the read from james friedman and susan li. what do you think? >> we were looking, the

three-month went above the ten-year as you said, has preceded every recession since 1975 and it depends, a day is not a trend. however, the manufacturing numbers, factory output is concerning. neil: it's across the board. >> here in the u.s., worst in two years. manufacturing is having a tough time. makes you think how much goods are going across this country and it goes back to the pmi numbers and it's concerning. neil: purchasing matters, i don't know what language they spe speak. you think there's a reason for them to hold off on purchases. a lot of that comes from their bosses. then you have to worry whether -- they don't want to get caught with full shelves so one imitates the other and you can get the very recession simply because you are holding back. what do you think? >> yeah, a lot of this depends on the consumer. we need the consumer to keep buying because if that doesn't keep happening, then our market really is going to start to be a

concern to me. nobody likes an inverted yield curve. i know you don't like to get into the semantics of it but -- neil: i do live for it. >> it is a big alarm. this is a trend that holds for 45 years. we have to take it seriously. you know, the market itself, the stock market itself has been the bull, the stalwart, that hasn't actually demonstrated this yet but the slowdown is coming here. i think we are starting to realize it. neil: you know, i hope i get the words right, i'm probably screwing it up, it's not the slowdown we have to worry about. just a slower-down. in other words, we are not contracting to the point where we get negative numbers and all. we are just slowing from lofty levels. what do you think of that argument? >> yeah, i think we ought to note that the consensus of professional economists is that the second quarter is going to be better than the first quarter so i'm not sure slowdown is the right word anyway.

i think there is still a great policy mix in the united states. neil: the first quarter was around 1%, all right. so it wouldn't take a lot to beat that. >> true. 2.5%, which would be nice. now, these forecasters are frequently wrong. i think we still have a pretty good policy mix in the united states. president trump telling our friend maria bartiromo that the china deal is moving along. if that gets resolved, that takes away a big drag. i can't give you an optimistic long-term take on europe. you mentioned the 45-year trend. this negative rate phenomenon which has been going on there for years now, investors paying for the privilege of lending governments money, this has not happened in 5,000 years of recorded history. so i don't think you should expect that to end well. neil: all right. you sure it's 5,000? not 4,995?

>> i just checked. neil: susan li, the trade thing comes at a vicious time. we have been waiting for this china deal. the president intimated things are moving along. this was to be the weekend, the president at mar-a-lago was to meet with xi jinping originally. that got pushed back. he wants the right deal rather than the wrong deal. but i'm wondering at what point wall street gets really restless with that and starts thinking come on, move, move, move. >> you see days like this, the inversion of the yield curve, yes, it was supposed to be this month, then april, now june. we have steve mnuchin and rep lighthizer. interesting because there are different dynamics of how to negotiate with china. they are both going to beijing -- neil: like the good cop/bad cop. >> yeah. you wonder who plays good cop and bad cop. i believe they are leaving this weekend. at some point next week they will meet with liu he, the vice premier, to hash out their differences. neil: he comes the following

week. so the timeline of this, we are really pushing into the summer. >> i think we are pushing it into the summer. april is going to be tough. we don't see that on the schedules right now. either/or, we need a trade deal, whether it's now or june, as long as we get one, i think the markets will be okay with that. neil: the oddity here could be we do get a deal and it might be a very good deal, and it might hold china accountable to buy more u.s. goods, et cetera, but they are doing it in the middle of a severe slowdown that will limit their capacity to do so. what do you think? >> i think you're right. i think the market has been waiting patiently for this deal. i myself am getting a little bit like okay, when's it going to happen? it's got to happen. i think trump is the president to make it happen. the deal, you know, i expect a boom when the deal goes through. as long as it's the right deal and we get some teeth in it which that's the holdup. we have to have accountability and that's why it hasn't gotten done yet because we really are holding them accountable. lowering expectations for gdp for the year, that's a little

bit, you know, just all around, we need a china deal. let's get it done. let's get it done. let's get this done. neil: you are grasping at straws here. that's what they are hanging their hat on. all i'm saying is be careful here because you are banking on that to turn everything around. it might, and this might be an overstatement what's going on today, but if this is a slowdown that's permeating the globe and we are caught in it, we're not a haven, just part of the same problem, right? >> yeah. maybe less exposed to some other places, but i agree that if a deal happens and tariffs come down, that is a huge stimulus beyond the specific dollar amount in terms of the confidence. you talked about senior executives, the bosses of purchasing managers pulling the trigger on deals on investments. if we get to a lower tariff level than when we started, that's a huge win. neil: very interesting read. all of a sudden the purchasing

managers about whom we're worried would have more confidence to purchase more. we'll see. thank you all very, very much. they did something here. they shaved about 50 points off the loss in the dow. down about 338 points. we'll see what happens. in the meantime, the president is shaking up the federal reserve board, too. you know he's not a big fan of the guy he picked to run it, jerome powell. now someone who might be an agitator on that board, talking about stephen moore. blake burman has more from the white house. hey, blake. reporter: you hit it spot-on. the president, his pick to lead the federal reserve chairman jay powell didn't go exactly as planned so now he's set to nominate steve moore to the federal reserve board of governors, someone he knows very, very well. someone that's also known pretty well not only in circles here in washington but in television also. steve moore started club for growth, for example, he was chief economist over at the heritage foundation. he's been a contributor, of course, for fox business, fox news. he put himself in president trump's orbit back during the 2016 campaign when moore, along

with larry kudlow, the president's top economic adviser over here at the white house, helped shape president trump's economic platform, most specifically the president's tax reform plan that he put forth out on the campaign. moore in the last several months or so has been very critical of the federal reserve for raising rates. he even penned an op-ed in the "wall street journal" last week in which the title of that was quote, the fed is a threat to growth. now president trump is set to nominate moore to the board of the federal reserve. here's the president just a little while ago. >> i will be nominating mr. moore for the fed. you know who i'm talking about. he's going to be great on the fed. reporter: he's going to be great, president trump says. the nomination, though, is going to take some time. it's not official yet because of the senior administration official put it to me earlier today, steve moore still needs to go through the clearance process, though the time frame they are looking at over here at the white house is for all of this to make its way through the process within the upcoming next

couple months. keep in mind they also have another open slot, the president does, to nominate someone to the fed board. herman cain is someone that has been -- that has made the rounds here at the white house although he hasn't necessarily risen to the top yet for that spot. after the nomination of steve moore, you got to wonder whether or not the president will go down a similar road nominating someone that he knows fairly well. neil: certainly changing the makeup and tenor, the tone of the federal reserve as we know it from a very staid institution to one that's maybe a little more feisty. thank you very, very much. all of a sudden right now, google is in everyone's sights but it's what the company wants to do that both parties are getting concerned.

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neil: welcome back, everyone. a top general is saying google is working with china. to edward lawrence with the latest on all of this. what's going on, edward? reporter: the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, general joseph dunford, said he will be meeting with google executives next week about concerns with google's work in china. he told the audience at the atlantic council this goes directly to the competitive advantage for our military around the world, because stealing that technology from google gives china a direct line to benefit their military. >> if a company does business in china, they are automatically going to be required to have a cell of the communist party in that company, and that is going to lead to that intellectual property from that company finding its way to the chinese military. reporter: specifically, his concerns with google's artificial intelligence work in china will end up helping the chinese military. google says it only works with

education in china, specifically kindergarten through college. last year, the company canceled a contract with the department of defense because employees raised concerns about working with the military, but a google spokesperson pushing back, saying quote, we are not working with the chinese military. we are working with the u.s. government, including the department of defense in many areas, including cybersecurity, recruiting and health care. the chairman of the joint chiefs says that he's not going to try and single out google, but he wants all technology companies like microsoft and amazon to be aware that their work could fall in the hands of the chinese military. neil? neil: edward, thank you very, very much. do we have any recourse against google if it is in fact doing this as edward pointed out? google says it is not. former deputy assistant secretary of defense under president bush 43, peter brooks. peter, first of all, what do you make of this stuff? >> from a national security perspective, i'm really concerned, neil.

this is not a top general, this is the top general in the u.s. military, general dunford, and he said they are indirectly helping the peoples liberation army, which is the collective name for the chinese military, who is a pure competitor of the united states. he also said it's undermining our military advantage. there's a lot of times we may come up against china militarily. we hope not but it could be on the korean peninsula, could be in the taiwan strait, see what they are doing in the south china sea. china is developing a military that wants to be as capable or more capable than the u.s. military. so if he has concerns and he probably knows things that we don't know, i think there needs to be much more spotlight placed on this, especially by the congress in hearings. neil: while i've got you here, peter, the latest report out of the white house, the president says the media refuses to report this progress on isis so he brings a little map to show how isis has shrunk to the point of being gone. do you buy that? >> i mean, isis is in trouble.

isis is in crisis. there's no question. of course, we have taken back all of that territory from where they were a few years ago, and the president can take a tremendous amount of credit for that, but the fight is still going to go on. we are worried that some of these isis fighters will try to blend into the populations and try to reform like they did in iraq after our surge there. al qaeda in iraq became isis in syria and iraq. so we still have challenges. the terrorism threat has not gone away and we need to be vigilant about it in making sure we continue to tamp it down. neil: peter, is it your sense that the president feels that he gets second-guessed when he second-guesses his generals, the back and forth on that, his argument with for example taking troops out of syria and all that was that after a couple of decades, now's the time, but there's always this nasty back-and-forth. he had a similar argument against the federal reserve.

lo and behold, it turns out it does look like the federal reserve overdid it on rate hikes so the president was proven right on that. i'm just paraphrasing. but this back-and-forth with powers that be, it's a theme for the white house. one, it says where the president says i'm right in the end and they know it, they just won't admit it. what do you think? >> he's the commander in chief on national security issues but i think a healthy debate is good. it doesn't have to be -- to take place in public. it certainly should take place i think behind closed doors and inner agency meetings. it's very important that the president as commander in chief hear the views of his military commanders, his intelligence community, his state department and other elements of the national security and foreign policy establishment, and then make those decisions. now, we're outside of government. we can't see that, but i think a debate is good and important. we should question assumptions. we should see how the best way to go forward and what best practices we can implement in protecting and advancing our national security. neil: that was a very diplomatic answer which explains why you

were so good at your job. peter brooks, always a pleasure, my friend. have a great weekend. we are down 357 points on the dow. the particular laggard, nike. the big story there, obviously disappointing revenue figures but disappointing in north america. that caught people's attention because up until now, the consensus has been europe is slowing, asia is stumbling but north america by and large, thanks to us, is doing fine. maybe not. caterpillar also dragging the dow down. jpmorgan, a lot of investment banks are hurt by this low interest rate environment. they can't make much money lending if that's the case. and that is the case. more after this. if ywhen you brush or floss, you don't have to choose between healthy gums and strong teeth.

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your daily dashboard from fidelity. a visual snapshot of your investments. key portfolio events. all in one place. because when it's decision time... you need decision tech. only from fidelity. you look at this green new deal, it's the most preposterous thing. i don't want to knock it too much right now because i really hope they keep going forward with it. you know, frankly, because i think it's going to be very easy to beat.

>> one of the things we're even hearing the president say is that he would outlaw cows farting. that would be out. children, hamburgers, ice cream. any of that true at all? >> it's always good to see how these narratives are manipulated because they're trying to say that the green new deal is about what we have to give up, what we have to cut back on. when in fact, the green new deal itself is a resolution to be more expansive. neil: and more costly because according to my next guest, the former cbo director, says it would cost $93 trillion to fully implement. many on the left have challenged that number, saying that isn't nearly that high, but the back-and-forth on the cost of that green new deal has become a centerpiece of this early election contest. doug joins us now. good to have you, my friend. >> thanks for having me on, neil. neil: she's on the cover of "time" and is touted on a lot of late night shows. she's got the buzz. your report's a debbie downer

and takes away the buzz and excitement. how do you feel about that? >> look, it's an important resolution that the senate is going to vote on, so what we do at my place, the american action for forum, we take policies like that and analyze them. the first question that comes to mind is okay, we like a clean environment, we like people to have jobs, health insurance, safe food, what will it take. if you start adding up what it will take, you get some very very large numbers, $36 trillion for a single payer health care system. another $30 trillion to guarantee everybody a job that has retirement benefits, paid family leave, paid vacation and a standard of living enough to support a family. you know, an entirely recyclable, renewable electricity grid. these are all big changes and big changes cost a lot of money. we just tried to get some sense of the magnitude. neil: they come back as you know and countered this was not a blueprint so much as a goal, and

details i think to come later. they talk about the cost of this being borne by business, a lot of the tax cuts given to them, you know, given back, the rich people skated by and they would pay more and that would foot the bill. i think that's the gist of it. we had one of their proponents on not too long ago. what do you make of that? >> i don't think there's a disagreement that it's a blueprint and a goal. as i said, i think every american shares those goals. we like things like housing and clean environment. the next question is, is this a sensible route to those goals. our read on it is it's a very expensive route to those goals. if that's not right, then i think the authors of the resolution can give us the details in the blueprint that says it's not right. tell us what we should be looking at that's going to be so much cheaper and put those goals within sensible reach. that's really the next step. neil: i wonder that there's very little agreement on the right

for a lot of these green goals but there should be agreement between the right and the left, i know you were championing this in your days at the congressional budget office to watch the spending, period, no matter what it's committed to, because we run up debt and we are running deficits now for the next few years at least that will be over $1 trillion and that's something we're not paying attention to. i think that certainly is a threat to our political environment but what do you make of whether there's any hope for that getting done, ever? >> well, i would just echo what i have tried to say many, many times which is that, you know, washington and the body politic loves to talk about tax cuts and tax hikes and tax this and tax that, but the threshold decision is to spend the money. once you spend the money you are going to pay for it one way or another. there's an enormous amount of spending that has already been promised in the federal budget. the green new deal is an example of promising a whole lot more. and at some point, there has to be a reckoning of those promises with reality. there are two realities, one of

which is the arithmetic on adding it up. we have done some of that. but the second reality is if you made so many promises in the past, there is no room for the next generation to do the things they might think important. that's not fair in a democracy. they should get a chance to say to their representatives hey, this is important to us, can we do something on that front. the current answer is sorry, out of money. that's really not right. neil: of course, ocasio-cortez and others say this is important to that generation. leaving that aside, i would be remiss if i didn't mention your old friend and boss, john mccain, and the back-and-forth the president has had, mentioning his name once again in an interview, getting mad when maria bartiromo did. what do you think of that whole thing? >> well, i don't know exactly what the president's motivation is, but i do know that on the merits, the kinds of things he's voiced are incorrect. john mccain's treatment of the steele dossier is impeccable. he did what any sitting senator should do, which is hand it to

the authorities and say this is a potential threat to this country, let's look into it, and his vote on health care, while it may have been a personal disappointment to the president, was something that i think is well understood he voiced his concern about the way the senate was operating, the failure of the republicans to come up with anything in the way of a plan and be down to this last-ditch effort, the failure of republicans to in fact get some democrats on board so that that plan would be a reality for years to come and be durable. so i think his conduct is impeccable. that's all that really needs to be said about it. neil: the president did say when it came to that thumbs down vote on the part of mccain, mccain had said just the opposite to republican colleagues just hours before. i don't remember that. i could be very wrong, doug. but while a lot of people were waiting to see how mccain would vote, i don't remember him making promises i'm going to go ahead and vote for this thing holding my nose because there wasn't a replacement vehicle in that. it wasn't about a simpler plan.

he didn't like the process and he made that very clear. >> he never made a promise. his public comments were very clear about his unhappiness with the process. i would just remind everyone that the actual vote was to pass a quote, skinny repeal so they could go to conference committee and start from scratch. that's the most preposterous hail mary in history. the fact that everything ended and put out of its misery is probably a blessing in the long run. republicans still need to come up with a coherent replacement for what they dislike in the affordable care act. that job wasn't done at the time. that's the fundamental failing. neil: all right. doug, always good seeing you. american action forum president, former former friend of john mccain. there is a frenzy heating up. unfortunately, there's a sell-off heating up as well. are these guys getting ready to launch in trouble because of what's happening today? after this.

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gerri: welcome back. i'm gerri willis live from the floor of the new york stock exchange. all red in the market today as key economic data has hit the wires. traders also focused on the yield curve, the spread between three mow a three-month and ten-year treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2007. that's widely recognized as the precursor to a coming recession. those fears fueled by negative u.s. and european manufacturing data as well as the fed's decision to lower growth projections in its interest rate outlook for the year earlier this week. germany industrial output neared a six-year low. stocks falling sharply today. taking a look at the dow, you can see nike leading losses, down pretty substantially, nearly 6%, 5.7% after reporting weaker than expected north

american sales. boeing, weaker as well on news it faced its first order cancellation for its 737 max order since the crash. dow, dupont, caterpillar dragging on the dow, as you can see. only four stocks now in the green today. verizon, coca-cola, mcdonald's and travelers insurance company. neil, on the other hand, the s&p 500 yesterday was 2.5 percentage points away from its all-time high. maybe people taking some profits here. back to you. neil: yeah. you could very easily get caught up in the moment. thank you very much. gerri willis. meantime, stocks sliding but a lot of companies are looking to jump into being publicly traded companies themselves. lyft pushing for an april initial public offering, uber. to axios market editor. dion, do you think that that is still the case? in other words, do those who plan ipos push them back if the

market environment stays, you know, in other words, we have a lot of days like today? what do you think? >> i don't think it's days like today. i think folks who are looking to get in the market with the ipo are looking at the longer term trend. the stock market is up, it's up for the year, it's going up, it will likely end up for the month and i think as long as the trend doesn't turn meaningfully down, i think lyft is going to come out here no matter what, but companies like uber, airbnb, pinterest, they are probably still going to come out this year because it is still a strong market environment. you saw levi's ten times oversubscribed according to cnbc so there is still a lot of appetite for these companies, and you know, the initial shareholders want to cash out. neil: you know, it's interesting, you could make the argument that levi's is a different kettle of fish because it's an established company going back 150 years, it makes stuff that people know. i'm not minimizing lyft or some of these others, but the jury's out on some of the new

technologies. i'm not saying that ride hailing services aren't a real deal and real money-making deal, but the value attached to them might be a little off the charts. what's your take on that? >> that actually makes complete sense. the jury is still out and the market's going to decide. but what's happening here is you've got a lot of fomo going on in the market. investors want to get in on the hot new deal. lyft was valued at $15 billion, now they are looking at $20 billion to $25 billion, an increase of about 67% from where it was valued just last year. again, that's all just because these companies are now coming to market. investors don't want to miss the boat. i don't know what kind of magic beans they are selling at these fund meetings or when they go on these road shows but it's a real feeding frenzy in the ipo market. neil: some take that feeding frenzy and they just say, attach it or make it parallel to other frenzies at the end of bull

markets. i'm not saying that's the case here. but the real estate, you know, overheated market before the last big market meltdown, i could pick and choose other elements where biotech stocks were hot in the '80s, then internet stocks in the late '90s. how do you know what is the froth of the moment? in all these cases, like you say, you could make a credible argument that the valuations could be rich depending on the buyer, they make money. they have very good sound business models that are clearly successful but how do people crunch that? >> i think the bull and the bear case here is tesla. that's a stock that hasn't made money ever. they still don't make money right now. in fact, they lose $700 million a quarter. you look at the stock, short sellers who bet against tesla 30, 40, 50, 100, $200 have really lost a lot of money. entire firms have been wiped out betting against tesla. so the case that this is a new technology that they don't make

money, that they are not ready for prime time, the market hasn't cared. it's sent stocks like that flying higher. those who have bet against it or those who failed to get in have missed out and their portfolios have lacked because of it. neil: exactly right. you know your stuff. very much appreciate you taking the time. thank you very much. >> thanks for having me on, neil. neil: the bullish argument stuff, the bearish argument, it's up to you to take, to weigh all that and go where you want to go. in a market downdraft, we will say that. in a market runup we will say that. one of the things that concerns bulls today is not only what's happening with this global slowdown and whether it sticks here, but what's been happening to a lot of bank stocks. if you are with the financials leading the way south largely on the belief they are dealing with interest rates so paltry. that doesn't necessarily apply but today that's the concern.

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neil: all right. this dance has been rumored for a long time, sprint and t-mobile. i don't know what's happening now but maybe it might not happen now. charlie gasparino, what's

happening? >> there's essentially four wireless carriers, right. they are the two weakest wireless carriers. they are all in the race, at & t, sprint, t-mobile, verizon, all in the race to develop 5g. the theory behind this merger is that a combined company, the two weakest companies, will be better able to compete in the 5g race for the u.s., help us compete against china. they do have to go through a lot of hoops, including doj, antitrust hoops, and s.e.c. hoops. here's the state of play right now. by the way, it's a $20 billion deal. again, the policy here is huge, because it involves 5g. what we do know is this. government review of this merger is heating up. the companies met this week with government officials. this is what we understand. the doj continues to raise possible antitrust concerns over the reduction of the wireless carriers. again, you are going from four major wireless carriers down to three, if this happens. that is obviously an antitrust concern. but here's what we are getting from the companies. they believe that they have won

the policy argument with the white house, and that is essentially this. if you combine both of them together, you have a much more powerful company. it doesn't necessarily mean prices will go up because you have fewer wireless carriers. probably doesn't. and they have agreed to a lot of stuff. neil: other combos have been allowed. >> right. right. and we can better compete with the chinese. i will say this. what we understand is that doj antitrust is, when they are quizzing doj officials from t-mobile and sprint, they are honing in on these 5g arguments. so what can you get from this if you are betting -- there are all sorts of traders out there, merger arbitrage guys go out and bet whether the deals happen and they buy the stock. if it does, they will buy sprint because sprint is essentially being bought by t-mobile. sometimes if you think it's not going to happen you buy t-mobile because they will be spending the money and the stock will go up. neil: who would control that? >> t-mobile. they are the bigger company. here's what i would say. it sounds like if doj antitrust

is honing in on the 5g argument, that's where this deal is on the strongest footing. it's not on the strongest footing on antitrust because as you know, you are going from four to three and they have to prove that we are not going to raise prices but if doj antitrust is worried about the 5g arguments, namely that we are going to be, you know, making advancements in 5g which is supposed to have a huge impact on the u.s. economy, if it goes through, there's a national security issue here if we are the epicenter of 5g, not the chinese company, i think it's called huawei or something like that. neil: they argue their phones are going to be ready to go, their 5g -- >> right. i will say this, if doj antitrust is looking at this 5g issue, it sounds net positive. i will also say this. company officials tell me that it's 50/50. if the company is saying it's 50/50, this thing really might -- you can't say this thing is going through. i can just tell you that honing in on that 5g issue, if i'm a

betting man and people bet these deals, net positive for the deal going through. the other thing is, we hear it could be approved, at least we get some word, as early as may. you may get some tip of the hat before that. but the approval as early as may. that doesn't mean it will happen in may. sometimes these things -- neil: don't they telegraph their intentions if it's not? >> yes. a lot of times they do and the companies pull back. we are talking, you know, we are going to be -- we are going to find out about this pretty soon. like i said, if you are following deal making from a public policy standpoint and from a wall street standpoint, this deal is huge. this is a big, big story. neil: interest rates inverting for awhile today. the people you talk to, they worry about it or they have to see it lasting a little longer? >> have to see it lasting. listen, we have inverted interest rates off and on now for the last year. this is an economy that's, you know, listen, we are going through some sort of transition right now. it's unclear if the u.s. economy

is slowing down, so people think it is. it is pretty clear the global economy is slowing down. one of the things the u.s. economy has going for it is massive regulatory relief and corporate tax cuts, and tax cuts in general. however, you do have a gapping out of the deficit. neil: we are not immune to that other stuff that's going on. >> no. but we are less immune if we have a better economy. so there's a lot of things. plus you've got trade. i tell you, if you're betting, again, i was speaking with people pretty close to the trump white house, they are convinced if they can get a decent trade deal, markets will pop and one thing i will tell you about trump and markets. i have never seen this before and i have been covering business a long time. if a president looks at the market minute by minute as an affirmation or a negative on his presidency, he looks at the stock market, the dow, like a poll, a minute by minute poll of his presidency. it's fascinating stuff. they think they are going to get a positive number, a positive poll number if they get a good china deal, like i.e., the

markets go up and that says something good about donald trump. neil: wouldn't that be a kick, we get a deal but the world's in the middle of a recession. >> that would be a problem. they think they are still going to get a pop out of the dow if they do get a deal. neil: charlie gasparino, thank you very much. we have a lot more coming up, including what is happening within the dow. some of the key components, not just those affected by trade or lack thereof with china. they are falling prey to this idea that no matter how well we do, if the rest of the world is slowing down, that deal kind of loses its appeal. is that right? is that true? after this. . .

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neil: all right, in the technology world they're focusing who has-- microsoft, apple, battling back and forth who has greater market cap. right now it is apple. apple has a monday event where there is not new hardware, it is all about the stream.

new streaming service to rival netflix and hulu, others out there, might be late to the gain. but to hear apple proponents tell us they are late to the game. obviously they are a late entrant to this field, what do you think? >> i think they're going to announce hopefully they announce content. they don't have much when it comes to video streaming. as you said they're behind everybody else, amazon, netflix. they're not spending nearly enough. roughly 1/8 of what netflix is spending a year because they're just starting. what we expect some content agreements. maybe the impact services would have on other parts of the business like hardware which they announced earlier this week. we'll see, this is hugely important announcement for them in terms of just the overall business. i think it is something they feeded to do regardless. they have been shifting much of

their focus now towards services than hardware. neil: you're right about that. someone was liken together fact that apple on monday becomes a media company. that might be an over simplification. how would you describe it? >> i think that is two actually. we look at two things from the december quarter apple just announced. two things happened. iphone sales dropped significantly year-over-year. on the flip side services was up significantly. services accounts for 13% of total revenue for apple, iphone at 62% is still is slipping. clearly something has to happen with the company. if you're not selling as many iphones you need to derive more revenue from the phones or what comes on the phone. apple has a perfect distribution system if you think about it. it is seamless. apple iphone. ipad, to tv. they have the pipes. they need the content.

neil: when they make content like netflix. they're expensive if they do. they come in with about 1/8 spending netflix does presently. they can afford to get up to the left. some said why don't you buy netflix. that is unlikely. what is the gameplan for them? exclusive content has to be compelling exclusive content, right? >> it has to be compelling. the stuff they put out so far, planet of the was pretty awful to be honest. they have these deals. they have deals with oprah, spielberg, reese reese withersp, jennifer aniston and others you're right, they could acquire content. they could acquire a studio or content producer. they have nearly $250 billion in cash to play catch-up. there is another thing, disney getting into the market. think of the catalog of the stuff they have to offer

already? neil: i'm just wondering, is there something else we could be missing, i could be missing, i doubt you, that it is beyond movies or shows, maybe games? maybe it is streaming games and the likes? >> gaming excellent point. there is rahm more there could be a tie-in to actual gaming we think about its as form of enter mainment. movies, television, whatever, what have you. that is probably the x-factor. i'm not sure they talk about that on monday, but that is something that is lingering in the background. neil: i only say that one of my sons, that is his life. his whole life is streaming. >> exactly. neil: i'm telling you, you connect with him, the world is your oyster. >> well that is what the teens and those under 25 are doing. they're staring at their smaller screens. there was a poll just came out, actually even a study that showed viewing habits among people under 35, they're spending as much time watching

things like e-sports as they are watching professional sports. whatever the devices. neil: i believe it. fascinating talking to you, john. we'll watch monday. catch up with you then. john schwartz of "barron's." to charles payne of fox. hey, charles. charles: neil, dow off 407 points. we have lot of explaining to do. we'll try. neil: good luck. charles: good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne this. is "making money." stocks are tumbling. it's a combination of factors including fears over the global economy, worries, big-name stocks rather getting hammered, that is putting pressure on this market. this now as the president trump shakes up the federal reserve. less than a week after president trump slammed general motors over the ohio plant closure, the auto giant announcing new jobs, and a new vehicle originally to be manufactured in china guess where it is being manufactured now?