>> thank you very much. we are seeing the situation escalate in venezuela. you want to stay tuned as we watch and keep a close eye on venezuela. >> so important for so many different reasons. throughout the evening and then tomorrow, here on fox business -- >> bulls & bears now. david: breaking news, this is bulls & bears. you are looking at live pictures from caracas venezuela where tensions are escalating between protesters and the military. this is the second day of an uprising led by juan guaido to overthrow the disputed presidency of nicolas maduro. let's go straight to rich edson of fox news at the state department what are you hearing? yesterday it looked like maduro was going to leave, but then the russians stepped in and talked him out of it. what's the latest? >> that's what we're hearing at state department. more demonstrations and fighting on the street. juan guaido, the interim leader's attempt to try to keep this momentum going after yesterday's events. officials here say it was close

yesterday that there was an agreement between senior maduro government officials to support interim leader juan guaido and backed off at the last minute. the administration says it believes maduro will eventually leave. >> maduro's position is not sustainable. people know his regime has failed. it's going to fall. the question is we can get a transfer to the interim president to conduct elections so the venezuelan people can speak for the first time in 20 years >> secretary of state says maduro was ready to take off, leave and flee to havana yesterday when the russian government stepped in and told maduro to stay put. pompeo spoke this afternoon with russian foreign minister lavrov. the state department says pompeo told lavrov that interruption by russia and cuba is destabilizing for venezuela and the u.s. russian relationship. president trump says cuban should halt in venezuela or the

u.s. would have complete embargo and highest level sanctions against cuba. the u.s. is pushing for a peaceful transition of power in venezuela though military action is possible if it is required. acting defense secretary patrick shanahan was scheduled to travel to europe today. he cancelled the trip. the pentagon says he did so in part to stay in washington and help the government coordinate on its response to what's going on in venezuela right now. david: what a mess, rich edson thank you very much. as we continue to watch the live pictures. our panel carol roth, susan lee, john layfield and jack kaugh. rick scott says the situation on the ground is dire, the florida senator. here's what he said >> there's genocide going on in venezuela. we have got to consider sending not just american troops in, but troops from every democracy around the world that wants to stop genocide to go in and take humanitarian aid into these citizens to help them. this is horrible what's going on. david: let's bring in the vice

president in national security and foreign policy at the heritage foundation. jim, is senator scott right? is it time for military action? >> no, look, one of two things are going to happen in very short order. either maduro is going to crush this rebellion and it will be quite bloody and then what will happen is guaido will flee the country. he will have a government exile. he will have the world on his side and there will be a black eye against maduro and we will be right where we are. or maduro will flee the country. american military intervention makes no sense. you can't drop the 82nd airborne in the middle of a civil war like this. and actually this is putin's dream, like, yes, i would love for the americans to intervene and get bogged-down in a quagmire in the middle of a country in latin america that is important to us. >> russia intervened, james. what should be the u.s. response, if that's the case? >> well, look, this is a long way away from moscow. this is not like the russian intervention in syria. they would have to have a very

significant logistical footprint to be able to put military significant forces on the ground in venezuela, and i don't think putin is up for that. putin is a meddler and a schemer and a poke in your eye guy. he is not the guy that's going to do something like, you know, do an alamo in the middle of venezuela. >> jim, any sense of what's going to happen with the venezuelan military? there was some question yesterday about whether more members of the military would side with guaido. it seems like that has lost a little bit of momentum. what's your take? >> right. yeah, i think this is -- in the military we used to call this a meeting engagement which is two sides bump into each other and they didn't mean to. when guaido organized the massive demonstrations, i believe maduro was ready to leave the country and planning to do so and then he was forced to stay. his response to that was to say we will arrest guaido. and what guaido did preemptively was to call for the government to come down. i don't think either side

planned today to have this catastrophic struggle, and i don't think either side is confident that they know exactly what the u.s. -- i'm sorry, what the venezuelan military will do as this escalates. >> jim, john layfield here. how do you handicap this? what do you think is going to happen? what happens if maduro wins? what happens to the country of venezuela? >> right, well i think it is 50/50 because i think it is an unplanned crisis that neither side was ready for, and so how the military makes its decision, how they come down, i don't know how sitting here in washington, d.c. we can calculate that. the worst-case scenario is maduro's forces crush this and guaido flees the country and he has a government in exile and the entire world condemns venezuela, and we move on from there. the big loser here is cuba. if cuba is not careful, they have invoked the wrath of khan. the cubans can wind up with more tougher sanctions than they had

the day after the bay of pigs. they could be worse off than they were at the start of the obama administration. trump will come down on them like a ton of bricks. and all they will have to show for it is they have an ally in a destitute country at the far edge of latin america. >> hey, jim, it is carol roth. you are talking about these two sides, but we know that sometimes there is a third side to a story. what happens if maduro does leave? does guaido have enough support, or is there potentially a third faction out there, some other type of uprising that we need to be concerned about, if maduro ends up leaving power? >> i think we would quickly shift to the interim government, and i think there would be so much global support for that, that all the messing around by the russians and the cubans and the chinese wouldn't stop it. i actually think we would rapidly restore -- i think if you went back to venezuela a year from today, if maduro left today, that the level of prosperity that people had would

be unprecedented. and coming from a country where virtually everybody is starving, my guess is that looking back at today, they would believe they were on a different planet david: jim you correctly say that russia is a long way from home in venezuela, but on the other hand, they have a lot of influence there. they were able to apparently talk maduro out of leaving. they've got 20 billion dollars just with one company. it's probably putin's own company. 20 billion dollars of investment through that company. so they have a lot of influence there. and it is in our hemisphere, and the monroe doctrine has never been repealed. so i mean, you say no military forces, but what are we going to do to get the russians out? what kind of deal do we make with the russians to get them out of there? >> well, i don't think this is the in the hands of the russians or the cubans. david: forgive me jim, they talked maduro out of leaving. >> right.

so -- and here's the challenge for the senior venezuela military, even if they want to go for guaido, everything they do is being watched by a cuban or a russian, and the first thing they are going to do is grab that guy and tell maduro to take him out back and shoot him, they are caught between two immovable forces here, but i think once this cracks if it cracks there aren't enough cubans and russians in there to keep a lid on this thing. >> james, you keep saying that so once this cracks -- >> the senior military would have to flip and support the people. i think that's the consensus all around. >> that give us a good sense of the what. what about the when? how long do you think at the most this might take to play out? do you think we will see some kind of results here soon? >> yeah. i would guess so. i don't think guaido has the capacity to sustain -- to sustain this over time. either momentum builds very quickly, and these guys flip, or

they -- or they suppress it very quickly, and it's very bloody, and we're done. >> what about -- >> jim, what happens to -- >> do you see a role in terms of getting aid to the people there on the ground, if this is something that plays out over a long period of time? >> i think it would be quite difficult. you're going into basically a civil war, where you have a nonpermissive environment. you have one side that is hostile and actually trying to prevent delivery of aid. i think it would be very complicated. >> jim, what happens when this whole thing settles? say that maduro is ousted. this is a very rich country, even though it is destitute right now because of mismanagement, mainly in their oil fields, this is tailor-made for china or russia. who step in to help venezuela? they don't have the money to upgrade their oil facilities to start producing oil. how does this play out post maduro if maduro is easted

for -- is ousted, for their oil field assets? >> there's two variables here. one is i believe the united states international community would bring a lot of support, and since the country is really very recoverable, i mean, recovery could come very quickly, i think they would be willing to do that. the real question is is what does the government look like? guaido said he would be an interim government so there would have to be an election. if that government is honest and transparent, they are not going to repeat the mistakes of the last regime, and, you know, and essentially singing the tune of the russians and chinese and they will have an alternative, they can turn to the west. those were the variables that would have to play out. david: there was one mistake before maduro even before chavez, made back in the 60s and 70s when they nationalized the oil company, that's when it was a slow drip-drip since then of more and more corruption, and that led to chavez and that led to maduro. is there any way to privatize the oil company which has been

nationalized for too long and has been the source of a lot of the corruption there? >> well, you would have -- i think there is a chance here because one, you would have to have a government that is open and transparent and willing to engage with the west. i think they could do that. the other is, is there will be support for a transition. the international community will step up. i truly believe, including the united states so there will be money, there will be aid. th there will be jobs and construction. that would help foster that transition. remember right now these people have nothing. they are virtually the entire country is below the level of poverty, and inflation is so rampant that the money is worthless. so even a little bit of economic freedom and a little bit of development will make them feel like they're in a different world. david: by the way, do you think we have already, the united states has already laid out the recovery act of venezuela after maduro? >> you know, the united states

government has given a lot of thought to that, and they've had a lot of conversations with a lot of partners on that, so i do think they are ready. but there's a variable there, which is, there's going to be an election. unless the military does a coup and sets up, you know, a military -- if they accept the interim government, they will move to an election, and the question will be is what kind of government is elected? and how good a partner is that for accepting and processing the aid and support of the international community? >> right. so you're leaning towards the fact that maduro is going to leave and guaido will be able to form an interim government? is that necessarily the right choice? >> well, constitutionally, that's the reality. david: right. >> under the constitution, guaido is the legitimate head of the government until they have a valid election. david: and that by the way was a constitution that was formed by chavez maduro so it's ironic they're now against their own

constitution. >> hey, jim, what do you think america's relationship with venezuela looks like after maduro is gone? >> well, i think we have to look broader in that. what is america's relationship with latin america look like? we have partnered very well with other countries in dealing with this issue. if we are not overly intrusive and kind of forcing the solution on venezuela, and it is a solution that really comes from venezuelans, we won't get accused by the mexicans of interfering with other people and won't be seen as heavy-handed. i think our stature in the region and ability to partner with the region, that will have a significant boost. i think it will be a real blow to what we have seen with the corrosive capital from china and russia. other countries will look at this and they will learn a lesson, like this is not a path to go down. we have already seen other countries like sri lanka for example, learn the lesson of the debt trap and intrusive and corrosive influence of chinese money. other countries will see that, and more importantly civil

societies will see that and they will want to hold their governments to task to a standard about what kind of deals are they making with the chinese? what kind of deals are they making with the russians? what kind of freedom are we giving away? david: i want to emphasize to our viewers, just tuning in, this is live shots from the streets of caracas, the second day. it seems to be picking up steam, the anti-maduro rallies in the streets all over caracas. we just focus on one city, the capital, the biggest city in venezuela, the most important, that's where maduro is. preseem -- presumably that's where guaido is. this is happening all over the country. keeping what you just said, jim, i'm wondering if maduro does leave, that cuts off the oil supply to cuba. does that mean that the cuban regime's days are numbered? >> well, i think regardless of what happens, the regime in cuba comes out at the worse end of this. i mean, they're going to get so

much pushback from the u.s. that essentially all the goodwill and all the access and everything they have achieved in the last few years under obama, they squandered all that away, and the cuban people, you know, much like in iran where the iranian people stood up and said why are you spending all this money on hezbollah and syria and we are starving? the cuban people at some point are going to say why are you in all these foreign ventures and we're suffering from that? companies that were going to come and build hotels. companies that were going to bring cruise ships, flying in tourists, all that evaporates overnight because of you. i mean, that's got to put a lot of pressure on the cubans. >> how do you know what happens next? when chavez died we thought venezuela had a chance to turn into a democracy. you had an election. it looked like that election was certainly rigged. how do you know the next worst bad guy or the worst bad guy gets in power in venezuela and this thing doesn't deteriorate? we haven't had a great success rate and a regime change around

the world. >> well, there are things that are -- there are some things that are really different. you know, like i'm not a partisan guy, i don't do politics. let's be honest. under president obama, they just basically tolerated and even stood by and watched what happened to venezuela. and the state department was absolutely inert on this. so the united states was not engaged, that's one. the second thing is is that the international community and the regional community was not engaged and organized and didn't have american leadership. that's changed. and i think the third thing that's changed is guaido, you do have a transitional leader who has legitimacy and who has international support, so i think those are three factors that are different this time around. >> what about our relationship with china, do you think that what's going on in venezuela, given chinese support, could potentially throw a wrench in anything from our trade negotiations to our overall relationship with china? >> i think that's a great question. the chinese are usually pretty

cautious and risk averse about this. there were reports that the chinese were helping shut down social media and public broadcasting, probably true. the chinese are mostly interested about protecting their investments here, which are over 50 billion that they put into the country. i don't think they're willing to put a lot at risk in venezuela, in comparison to what the relationship with the united states. i think at the end of the day, the balance of what they are negotiating with the united states, that is going to be much more important to them than whether maduro stays or leaves. david: what kind of negotiations, jim, with russia? i'm told by some people inside the beltway that one thing the russians are hoping to get out of this thing we'll leave venezuela if you keep your hands off ukraine or something like that, have you heard of any kind of negotiations like that going on right now? >> yeah, no, here's what i heard. after the mueller report came out, the u.s. quietly went to

the russians and they said okay, look, all this is behind us now. we have an opportunity to reset the relationship. and the russians basically stiff armed them. the russians said no. not only did they say no, now they have turned around and essentially they've poked a finger in trump's eye in venezuela. so i think the likelihood of a deal with the russians or an approach from the russians is deader than dead. david: okay. there appears -- again, this is live action you're watching in caracas. just moments ago there appears to be more activity as the sun is going down there in caracas. we will continue on this shot and let you know what's happening. go ahead. >> jim, any time i hear about the russians and the u.s. with conflicting goals, in part of the world where they don't have soldiers on the ground, it makes me worry that there could be an escalation and violence, where neither of those two players -- david: by the way, what you are seeing right now, that's what

the crowd was cheering about. there was a molotov cocktail that hits its mark. they are trying to put out the fire on top of the vehicle. go ahead. >> i'm wondering what do you think the chances are that you have a change in government here that can happen relatively peacefully without a big escalation in violence? >> well, look, we already have violence and we're going to have that, and i think it is going to be serious. the question is at the end who is standing, maduro or guaido? i think to the u.s. credit, the u.s. worked really hard at a peaceful solution, and what they did is they built this very strong off ramp for maduro. on the one hand, they continue to drive pressure on the regime, but on the other said dude you can leave this country any time you want, take your money, take your kids, and you will be fine because the u.s. knew that was the only way to get anything resembling a good outcome and a peaceful transition of power. and even at this late point, the united states continues to tell the senior officials in the

maduro regime, if you leave this country, you know, we'll facilitate that because if they flip, maduro's either going to get arrested, they're going to get killed, or they're going to flee the country with nothing. david: yeah. we should mention by the way, already about 10% of the population has left the country, going to columbia, other parts of south america, and of course the united states as well. and capital has left the country. jim you were talking a moment ago about how they are going to rebuild and how desperate the situation is. if maduro leaves and if there's a semblance of some kind of responsible government, a lot of that capital is going to be coming right back in. >> yeah, i mean, we shouldn't be -- i think that's true. we shouldn't be too pollyannaish. part of the reason maduro has been able to hang on is he's embedded himself very deeply with the criminal networks. the reason why the sanctions haven't really forced him is because it's not the oil money

that's keeping him in business. it's the payoffs from the criminals. the criminal networks aren't going anywhere. so you're going to have the devastated country, the massive poverty. you're going to have the existing criminal network and corruption that you're still going to have to deal with, and you've got over a million of your population not living in the country and they are going to want to come back. they won't want to stay in columbia forever. you will have to bring them back and integrate them. we shouldn't be too pollyanna h pollyannaish, but if you look at after world war ii, nothing like the devastation that we saw in western europe, and look at how quickly, even before the marshall plan was put in place, how quickly things recovered, and this is nothing like the challenges faced then. so i think the international community is up to dealing with this. david: okay. we're back to -- >> i think the prognosis is good. david: we're back to live pictures, by the way, in caracas. we showed you some video from moments before when a military

vehicle was set on fire by the protesters. you mentioned the criminal element as we're looking at -- i'm not sure these are the mobs that were attacking the protesters, i think these are in fact part of the protests. but the really corrupt element includes of course a lot of very big-time drug dealers, who use venezuela as a means of getting their drugs into the united states and europe. those elements are probably going to remain no matter who is in power; right? >> right, and there are, you know, militias that work for the government, those guys aren't going anywhere. nobody is going to give them a plane ride to moscow or havana. yeah, we shouldn't be like i said pollyannaish about this and think it is going to turn into the land of milk and honey. but again venezuela is a resource rich country, relatively well educated population. they don't have internal ethnic strife and everything else. you have a region that's supportive.

you have a lot of constructive pluses here. compare that to syria. i mean, you know, syria's probably equally on its back, but nobody thinks syria is going to get rebuilt in a new york minute. the challenges in venezuela are nothing like what we see in syria and other countries. so, you know, the odds are with them, i think. >> jim, can you quantify that with any sort of a time line? i know that you're talking about quickly, but what does that mean in terms of when they might see some level of stability and when we can potentially see some actual economic growth out of the region, should things go the way we hope they go? >> well, i think it would be less than a year from the conditions that we are now of abject poverty and essentially no economy, to where people have a semblance that they can feed their families and they can live in somewhat peace, and i think, you know, in the case of venezuela, three to five years to where you're back to something that looks like

something -- but again, that's assuming that you elect a government that is not corrupt, that works well with the international community and rebuilding and you have good regional support. david: if that happens, i mean, that's the best case scenario, but if that happens, jim, i mentioned cuba. you know, there's also a couple of other leftist countries in latin america still remaining. one of them is nicaragua. danny ortega in 79 revolution still in power, he came up and essentially destroyed the opposition, he wants his wife to succeed him, he relies on venezuela as well. is the domino effect going to apply here, if maduro goes, not only cuba, but maybe nicaragua and other leftist countries in latin america? >> i don't know if i would predict that, i mean, the cubans are pretty resilient. nobody really has the capacity to project influence in the region other than the cubans.

yeah, so i don't know if i would get all, you know, saying, you know, democracy is going to be a tidal wave across latin america. there's a lot of issues in latin america and a lot of other distractions. so, yeah, you know, what's created in venezuela is really a perfect storm. the fact that the russians and chinese are there, that's gotten the trump administration's attention. the fact that the cubans are there and the fact that the conditions are so horrific. you don't have that same mix in nicaragua today. david: if you think of the hundreds of people that have been killed there, essentially murdered by ortega pointing his military, turning them into death squads. i mean, that's pretty desperate there. >> yeah, like i said, though, i think -- i think i would be careful about predicting that this is going to be a tsunami or tidal wave to wipe out all the socialist dictatorships in latin america. david: i got you. >> how do you get to that three

to five-year period? you talked about the mafia is embedded in there. the mafia is well funded. their security is well paid. say you get a good government, they can't afford to pay their own police right now. that lends itself to corruption. is this going to take an international peace-keeping force to go in? is this going to take lot of aid to go in to provide security to this country to counter the effect of the criminal element that is there that's really well funded now? >> well, i mean, venezuela has one significant advantage in that they do have the oil revenue. and the oil revenue has the ability i think within a couple of years, if you go back in and privatize it and, you know, rebuild the capacity and everything that the venezuelans can pay their security forces, and they can, you know, pay their government officials, and so unlike like a lot of countries which are destitute and no alternative than the money from criminal enterprises, venezuela can produce some wealth.

the trick is to put that money into wealth creation, right, and good governance and not siphoning it into so maduro can have a steak dinner every night. david: yeah, as we're looking at twilight in caracas there, you can see the protesters kind of milling around and trying to figure out what to do next, where to go next, which is something that all sides are now trying to figure out, we will keep monitoring this. this again is a live shot from caracas. jim, thank you very much, really appreciate you staying around for this. we're going to continue to monitor the situation in venezuela, and you're going to want to keep it tuned to fox business. tonight very special night with trish regan. she is going to be speaking with venezuela's opposition leader, you heard a lot about juan guaido. well, this is his first tv interview since the uprising began. this is a fox business exclusive. and if that wasn't enough, trish is also going to be speaking exclusively with the president of the united states, donald trump, will also be talking to trish. it is a show you don't want to miss. it's tonight 8:00 p.m. eastern time, about an hour and a half

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david: tensions are still rising as you are looking at live shots of caracas venezuela, all between the protesters and the military, which so far is acting

pretty brutal yesterday. so far it's been unclear as to how far they are willing to go to push the protesters back, as those protesters are attempting to overthrow the maduro regime. fox news foreign policy and national security analyst joining us now on the phone. a lot of people have been talking about russia. they clearly had a role in getting maduro to stay on yesterday, when apparently according to the state department, he was ready to leave. they look at the syrian model. now, syria's a place where russia went in with a relatively small military commitment, a lot of mercenaries of theirs went in. they have some agile democracy, a little bit of money, and there you go, boom, you've got a satellite nation. is that what's going on for the russians in venezuela? >> david, that's a great analogy. syria is what russians would like to see venezuela becoming. and there are a lot of comparative policies there. for example, the russians are

present in venezuela but much heavier in syria. syria is so close to russia. russia had bases before. cuban troops in venezuela. there are iran forces in syria. but obviously syria doesn't have the incentive of venezuela, economically, you know what i'm talking about oil. syria has only problems but syria is strategically important to another ally of russia, which is iran. versus venezuela is really surrounded by colombia and brazil, two u.s. allies at the end of the day. >> it's carol roth. in terms of what it takes to get maduro out of here, is this going to be a peaceful situation, do you think that it is going to end up in violence? is there some sort of deal that gets cut based on similar situations in the past, do you have a best guess there? >> all of the above are at play right now, violence, sure, unfortunately, violence will cease if either guaido and his forces are crushed, and this is a matter that maduro is very

attentive and very afraid of engaging in because he's surrounded. we are in a neighborhood, we're not far, and then latin america, most of it is against him. on the other hand, he would not let guaido take over that easily. so he's trying to make a good decision. he's trying to put some pressure. at the end of the day, he wants to stretch it as long as possible, maybe a year and a half, if he can, so maybe in our elections there would be a change. >> a year and a half that we're going to continue to see this type of violence and chaos on the streets of caracas and venezuela? >> the two years that we have not, you know, looked at -- violence as well but they were not on our tv screens. that's the plan of maduro. that's why he's leading every day a demonstration in caracas. guaido knows he has a large

international consensus. what he doesn't have are military units. that's the difference. >> one thing that russia wanted in syria was the port, one of the most important ports on the mediterranean. they got it. they got a 49 year lease on it. that was the main thing they needed for some of their energy infrastructure. what does russia want to get out of venezuela? >> well, russia basically would love to see an alternative to maduro who is also a maduro, meaning, they would like to cut a deal with us, saying okay if you don't like maduro, why don't you get his deputy who is basically worse because he's closer to iran and hezbollah. the situation in venezuela is different than syria. in syria they have borders with iraq and iran. their fleet can roam in the mediterranean. that's not the same in venezuela. so they can't really, the capacity of maduro regime, his armed forces to sustain as long as possible. who knows what other unknown cards they have to be used. >> i'm trying to go to a best

case scenario. let's imagine a peaceful -- relatively peaceful from here change in government, a move to democratic government, market capitalism, when the soviet union fell, what we saw was that the people who were best positioned to go after the assets of society, there wasn't a lot of free market activity, were the people who were involved in sort of underground economy, you shouunder the sovi. we're talking about criminal activity in venezuela, how do we prevent venezuela from the people who have been involved in criminal activity to date being the ones best positioned to go after the new economy? >> that's a good question. the next stage after the change of government in venezuela and because of the riches and because of the energy and because of all what venezuela really has, basically venezuela was a democratic nation. if you recall, about maybe 14, 16 years, they had political

bodies. they had right wing, left wing, social democrats, republicans, they had a multiparty system so venezuela can go back if the interim president guaido and his parliament will be the ones to take over. if these are thugs or sort of radicals who take over, then good-bye venezuela. it is going to go through a worse situation. i do believe that the next venezuela that will emerge out of this crisis, even if it is going to take longer, and we americans are very inpatient in general, but it may take longer are going to be liberal, democratic, multiparty system. if we are nearby, if we assist them, if the latin american organizations are with them, then they would have a chance at a good shot. david: venezuela, a lot of people forget that it was the founding member of opec. everybody thinks that opec was all middle eastern. venezuela was the founding member of it. in regards to that, they became friendly with a lot of middle

eastern countries. in fact their vice president until recently under maduro had a syrian father and a lebanese mother so he was middle eastern himself. middle eastern influence cannot be discounted in venezuela and it is not all good as you mepsed before. -- as you mentioned before. >> i know the venezuelan middle eastern, arab, syrian, lebanese communities very very well. i know them very close over the past 10 to 20 years. you have everything. you have those that are close to the regime, therefore, you can project close to iran, close to hezbollah. some of them actually work with hezbollah. hezbollah has a presence in downtown caracas. then you have a large majority of these venezuelan, syrian, lebanese middle easterners who actually support the united states. [inaudible] -- in miami, new york, many other parts of canada and europe are waiting basically for that change to go back and reinvest. so the middle eastern factor in

venezuela could go in both directions in how it supports the direction, that wants to see a free venezuela, democratic venezuela. david: it is our hemisphere and we're on it. these were actually moments ago, but it is still going on. we're staying on it. if you can stay with us, we'd appreciate it. the latest from our southern hemisphere when we return. openturning 50 opens theuard. door to a lot of new things... like now your doctor may be talking to you about screening for colon cancer. luckily there's me, cologuard. the noninvasive test you use at home. it all starts when your doctor orders me. then it's as easy as get, go, gone. you get me when i'm delivered... right to your front door and in the privacy of your own home. there's no prep or special diet needed. you just go to the bathroom, to collect your sample. after that, i'm gone, shipped to the lab for dna testing that finds colon cancer and precancer.

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...and brake too hard. with feedback to help you drive safer. giving you the power to actually lower your cost. unfortunately, it can't do anything about that. now that you know the truth... are you in good hands? david: the sun is is etting in caracas venezuela, but the mood is still hot and bright. they are still going at it. right now there's a little lull in the storm. but if you look at the picture on the left of your screen, you will see two military vehicles down in front. the protesters go up and tempt those military vehicles every now and again. so far it's kind of a stand-off. we've been watching this play out for several hours now. again, no telling what's going to happen. you still have guaido, the leader of the opposition in country. you still have maduro, the gang

leader of the people who are in charge of the government right now, still in country. it's a stand-off between the two. no telling as to whether the u.s. is having any effect on trying to persuade maduro to leave. they thought they had a deal for him to leave yesterday. it was broken apparently after the russians interceded. more with national security analyst farris. he's back on the phone with us now. bottom line is, the state department looked kind of -- yesterday -- i was surprised when john bolton came out in the middle of all the chaos going on yesterday in venezuela enannounced that he thought -- and announced that he thought there was a deal with the head of the supreme court work the -- with the head of the national guard, and defense minister, they thought they had a deal for those three key people to come to the side of guaido but they fell short. what happened? is it all russia or something

else going on? >> there is russia but i think there's something else going on. who is negotiating here and who are those representing the maduro regime on the other side. or it could be as simple as they cut the deal and there was as much bigger pressure coming from maduro's people, from his intelligence services, those who are really going to be in trouble are going to be the security and intelligence agencies of the regime, they have done most of the violence against the opposition. they would see these guys are going to move with guaido and what's going to happen to us. almost a movie here. a lot of pressure. the russians are in. the cubans are in. there's a whole circle around maduro even blocking him from flying. maduro right now wants to save himself. but the regime is more than maduro >> that's my problem as well because i think it is too easy to assume the endgame for maduro. he still has the support of the army.

there's still an opposition coalition. what makes you think and what makes people guess that this might be it for ma dour row? -- maduro? >> look, the administration, i think national security advisor john bolton, our secretary of state pompeo, they have a bet, the bet is you can't cross the red line and go against guaido, otherwise they would have done it a long time, but that's not enough. if you look at the news from yesterday till today, on the leadership of the army, they want to single out the leadership of the army and tell them okay, you take over, transitional kind of power work with guaido, but move away from maduro. it is too far from us. we don't know how the internal system is between maduro. maybe our intelligence knows, but i'm not sure we have been able to put enough pressure so far, but we have to continue to do it. >> that's what i'm thinking. guaido seems to have everything except the only thing he needs which is troops. so do you see any sign that there's kind of a tipping

point -- i know he's made efforts there. do you see any sign that we're approaching a tipping point where he gets more involvement and cooperation from the military in venezuela? >> look, i don't want to sound pessimistic but realistic, but i'm optimistic on the long-term. the reason why i'm realist is if in those cases the armed forces don't move in the first week, second week, third week, if not 80% or half of the armed forces, then it is the long haul, then it is the long range. what's happening in venezuela now is that the regime has been sold clearly not to crush the opposition, but the opposition is not able to get the forces from the armed forces to join them. that's the dilemma. that's why i told you guys on the panel that i expect this is going to take a little bit longer if not long longer than what is expected. david: there's a vacuum. vacuums don't last long. i wonder how long that stand off

between and what we're looking at play out in front of us how long that stand off can last. i mean eventually people have to go home. they have to eat. they have to -- is that what the government is trying to do, just wait them out, make them, you know, get hungry enough so they have to leave the protests and go back home? >> you and i discussed syria. your opening was about comparing with syria. i remember in 2011, you and i had a discussion in march of 2011 and we said oh maybe by sent, by august -- by september, by august, it is still going on in syria, eight years so far. i don't want to say it would be the same amount of time. let's not jump to conclusions. the bulk of the armed forces has not moved so that tells me basically that it will need more effort. >> in terms of that movement, how much of it is hinging on maduro himself? if maduro is removed, either peacefully or in a non-peaceful manner, is there additional

depth there? does that guarantee that the military comes over? does that guarantee that the people in his regime, his deputies and whatever come over? or is there more depth than perhaps we're thinking about here? >> there is more depth, you're right to raise this issue. this is more of an iranian model at this point than just latin american, you know, kind of a regime because over the past many years, i mean this regime has been on since 02 and on and off, and of course the iranians, the russians, the cubans have been building the regime, the national security of the regime, so it is not an issue of one populist leader maduro. he is the product of the regime. he is not the regime. that's why we need to be careful when we say if he leaves for cuba, it is over, no, there are other maduros. the iranians have been playing a role in defining the security agencies. the cubans have been strong in what they call the ruling party in venezuela.

it is tough to address. >> one of the reasons that everybody is fighting over this is it's very much like syria where putin wanted a certain port and he got it. the reason the iranians chinese and russians are also there, there's a huge humanitarian crisis. this is not about that to them. this is about geopolitics and about that oil revenue specifically, that's what they want to get. how do we as a country if maduro is ousted how do we guarantee that that oil goes to the venezuela people and not just another proxy for china or the russian -- david: hold that answer for one second. i want to alert our viewers to what we're seeing. this is a live broadcast from nicolas maduro. he has emerged from wherever he has been in the past 36 hours, making his speech. we don't know exactly where -- other than in the general vicinity of caracas. the supporters all have the color -- that's not a make america great hat, that's the

color of the administration, red, as the color of communism or socialism. once again, it is may day remember and as such it is a communist birthday around the world. it is also labor day, but for much of the region, in the old soviet union, it was the birth of communism as well, and he's speaking out in favor of that right now. we don't know if he's said anything about guaido, his opponent, but at least he's speaking to the masses. go ahead, i didn't mean to break your answer there with john. >> no, no, agree with you actually. the may day event is very important for left wing pro-old soviet union or communist regimes because it's a moment -- emotional moment of mobilization. this is the last they have of the year to mobilize the masses, quote unquote. going back to the answer basically if maduro leaves meaning his regime is removed or crumbled, then i'm not concerned

about the post maduro regime. guaido seems to be in control at least of the political institution. if maduro leaves as a person and leaves behind him the militias like the iranian revolutionary guard and leaves behind him a party that's in control, that's when i would be concerned. we don't know. most likely those behind him are more radical than him, that would be bad news. david: as we're watching maduro, may day, the major holiday for the left of the world, we should remind you that tonight right here on fbn at 8:00 p.m. eastern time, trish regan will be talking to his opponent, juan guaido, the man who essentially led that -- don't want to call him a dictator, nevertheless he is a strong man of venezuela -- juan guaido the man who would like to replace him, believes he is the rightful president of venezuela, he will be speaking to trish.

you don't want to miss that. again, the fact that he has emerged seems to me that he's planning to stay a little longer than we hoped. >> that would be my instinct. i mean having studied the regime, these are not regime that would let go just because of some pressure. i imagine that he's going to stay and he's going to resist. let me add one point, if you allow me, is that what we need to do now is really use the regional players. we need to use brazil. we have a very good friend of america, the president, he would be very helpful. brazil has long borders with venezuela. it is dealing now with the issue of refugees so is columbia. so probably a u.s., brazilian columbia coordination could make things go a little bit faster than what we see right now. david: i want to alert our viewers. we have no way of telling whether the venezuelans are right now combining tapes from

the past with current video of the president speaking to the masses. we have no idea whether this is something that might have happened days or weeks or months ago, combined with his feed directly on him. until we have a clear idea of what we're seeing, it does look as though this was done earlier in the afternoon, when the sun was brighter, even though when you are looking at maduro, it looked like it was in twilight, as it is right now in caracas. you know, the communists were famous for fiddling with the stuff, whether it was direct feed or not, in terms of propaganda value. maybe that's what's going on here. >> the propaganda tool of the regimes is amazing. this is what keeps them alive. i mean the political system alive. as i said, regardless of maduro himself, the moment, may 1st, this would mobilize the mass of supporters of the regime to

come. they know at one point the armed forces are going to start moving in different directions. i don't know how long. but they will. david: we're so happy to have had you come in today. thank you very much for being here. again, that is nicolas maduro, the current strong man of venezuela. we have no idea whether that crowd that you just saw is a crowd that is appearing right now in front of him, but we'll bring you more information on this breaking story as soon as we come back. all money managers might seem the same, but some give their clients cookie cutter portfolios. fisher investments tailors portfolios to your goals and needs. some only call when they have something to sell. fisher calls regularly so you stay informed. and while some advisors are happy to earn commissions whether you do well or not. fisher investments fees are structured so we do better when you do better. maybe that's why most of our clients come from other money managers. fisher investments. clearly better money management. who wanted to get away

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>> we had not planned on spending the entire hour in venezuela but in fact is you've seen the breaking events really made it the main story. this is not live by the way, this was taken moments ago. we had a very odd speech by nicolas maduro. that was being webcast live on venezuelan television. but when you pan back into the audience it was clear they were there for a daytime meeting. either they were being fast and funny with the cutting and putting old tape on new tape as you can see, or there is more trouble in venezuela then maduro has ever had before. for whatever reason, maduro is still at least at the moment, in charge. juan guaido is somewhere in caracas and we will see him live on fox business network tonight at 8 pm eastern time. he will be the special guest of

trish. she is another one as well, the president of the united states. after speaking with juan guaido, president donald trump will be there as well. it is a busy day for trish regan. a busy day for fox business. we thank you so much for staying with us. that does it for "bulls & bears". we will see you back here next time. elizabeth: violent protests in venezuela and in france, it's all about the best path to economic safety and prosperity. in venezuela the interim present juan guaido not telling the people of venezuela, take to the streets. we do not yet have the military on our side. we need you in the streets to fight for democratic freedom every day until a communist dictator, nicolas maduro is gone. he turned when his will into a wasteland. maduro now deploying water cannons and more as the trump administration continues to say, all options are on the table. this as nc