if you have a hit or miss, tweet it to us. that's it for this week's show. thanks to my panel. thanks to all of you for watching. i'm paul gigot. we hope to see you all right here, next "wall street" begins right now. ♪ ♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: and happy weekend, everybody. welcome to program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. in just a few moments, real estate titan larry silverstein, my potential guest this weekend. the calls getting louder after import prices saw the biggest decline in five months in the month of may. the labor department reported that import prices dropped three-tenths of a percent last month, but will this along with the continuing trade tensions and a tame consumer price report last month be enough to convince the fed to reverse court and cut

aggressively? joining me right now is the chief economist for jpmorgan chase, michael faroli. good to see you, michael. >> my pleasure. maria: let me get your take in terms of the broad economy, how do you see things? >> right. so right now there's a lot of cross-currents. we do think second quarter growth is a little softer than first quarter growth. the hard data looks okay, right? that alone wouldn't call for a rate cut, but there are some worrying clouds on the horizon. we have seen particularly business surveys that have softened some, so there is some concern that the trade tensions may be contributing to a little bit of caution on the part of businesses particularly with respect to capital spending. maria: mike, do you think we're going to see a china deal? >> i doubt it. [laughter] i mean, look, i think we're all guessing here, of course. none of us can read the minds of either leaders of the country, but right now the headlines don't sound particularly encouraging. some of the issues seem rather

intractable particularly as they relate to changing chinese laws which may be one of the demands of u.s. negotiators. so, again, hard to know, but we're not the really hopeful. our baseline here is that the status quo continues which is that the 25% tariffs on $250 billion of chinese goods remains intact. but i think there is a risk probably growing that we see the 25% rate also imposed on the remaining 300 and some billion dollars of chinese imports. maria: that would certainly be a bigger negative, i think, for markets if we were to see the president put that 25% on the remaining $325 billion in chinese imports. at the same time, it feels like the chinese economy is getting impacted more than the u.s. economy. talk to me about what metrics you look at to identify where we are in this expansion. >> right. is so i think that's right, that the chinese economy is getting hurt, and i think global growth generally is going to be a headwind for the u.s. numbers out of europe also look

quite disappointing recently. so the global backdrop is not supportive. what is supportive right now for the u.s. is that the consumer looks to be, you know, still the locomotive of the expansion, and that has, you know, we see that in consumer sentiment remains near expansion highs. job growth has generally been solid. there have been some hints that that may be slowing in terms of the latest employment numbers, the jobless claim numbers. sends some worrying signs that so far the consumer has really been the locomotive. and so the concern here is that that business caution, if that translates into less hiring, then we can't count on the consumer being the locomotive. but so far i think things look still okay in spite of the headwinds from the global economy and from the trade uncertainty. growth will be almost certainly slower this year than last year, the question is how much it'll slow down. we're looking for something, you know, in the -- for the remainer of the year in the mid to high

1s in terms of gdp growth which is not, you know, again, last year we were doing 3%, so that would be a ten down. maria: michael, what are you telling client about this market? i feel like there's a sense on wall street that whether you like this president or not, you know he's focused on the stock market, and you know he's focused on the economy, so he's not going to allow those two things to go too far off track. am i on track? >> i think that's right. there is the perception, i think correctly so, that the president does watch stocks and won't do something that is too damaging to stocks. i think there is a bit of a tricky issue here right now which is that the interest rate markets are pricing in a very aggressive fed easing which would suggest, in my opinion, that the fed would have to see something worrisome in the economy whereas stocks being near all-time highs don't seem to perceive that worry in the economy. now, it could just be that the fed cuts aggressively, that

helps growth and stocks are okay. but i think if the fed's cutting aggressively, there's probably some underlying weakness that has some real momentum to it. so i think you're right in saying that the stock market has a backstop in both the president and the fed, but right now it feels like one of the two, interest rates or stocks, may be not sending the same message. so presumably, one of the two will be wrong, ultimately. maria: right. i presume you're not expecting the federal reserve to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. >> yeah, that's right. for a few reasons, one is we haven't seen the growth slowdown in the hard numbers yet. it's somewhat of a forecast. second, we do have the g20 meeting the week after, so you could have, you know, there are potential good scenarios that could come out of that -- maria: that's true. >> the fed may want to wait and see what happens with those meetings as well as what happens with the june data. and then if, you know, things are actually softening, there's

a meeting in late july. so it would seem like waiting a few weeks to get some certainty around what's going on wouldn't be such a problem for the fed. and also they really haven't been signaling, you know, that much concern about growth. powell did say last week that they're monitoring the situation and will act as needed, but, you know, they're not really ringing the alarm bells. we think they probably hold next week but signal that they're, you know, obviously really to act if things deteriorate. maria: great to have your insights, michael, thank you. chief economy at jpmorgan. my interview with larry silverstein is up next. stay with us. ♪ >> 18 years after the tragedy of 9/11, larry silverstein has helped bring downtown back from the brink. what were the lessons learned from that fateful day? >> our lives changed, and changed totally. >> maria goes one-on-one with the real estate giant when "wall

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(amazement & laughter) ♪i needed to fall that's the goal. i'm looking for that experience of wonder. ♪i need never get old ♪ maria: welcome back. in july of 2001, real estate executive larry silverstein completed the largest real estate transaction in the history of new york city, a 99-year lease on the world trade center. only six weeks after signing the lease, the towers were destroyed in the horrific events of 9/11. in the 17 years since the attack, silverstein has helped lead a resurgence in downtown developments, building three office buildings on the world trade site with a fourth in development. i sat down with larry silverstein at 3 world trade center. i spoke to him about the challenges of rebuilding downtown after the terrorists

attacked us. so we're sitting here, and we're overlooking the 9/11 memorial and the museum. that was where the north tower was, right? and that's where the south tower was. >> correct, correct. maria: larry, take me back to 2001. it was july of '01 when you completed the largest real estate transaction in new york history. you signed a 99-year lease on the 10.6 million square feet world trade center for $3.25 billion. and a couple of months later, we had the attack on us that changed our world forever. >> yes, it did. it did. and so seeing these buildings come down was a tumultuous experience. the loss of life that resulted from it was horrendous. and we were all in a state of total shock. but not just here in new york, but a total shock around the globe. maria: across the world.

>> across the world, right? maria: yeah. >> so our lives changed and changed totally and forever. and so focused on security, focus on how not to build high-rise office buildings, we learned so much by looking at what happened to those twin tower, what caused them to collapse. and as a result, we've designed a whole new era of structure in these high-rise office buildings today that make them the safest buildings ever built in america. maria: that's really interesting. what were some of the things that were needed to put in there to make them even safer today? >> the use of hardened concrete, the use of 12,000-pound concrete. it's the densest form of concrete you can utilize, you can pour. and what we did is designed into these buildings in their core, in the center 12,000-pound concrete sheer walls that are 4 feet in thickness.

right? they're indestructible, because each floor was impregnated with 14,000 pounds of reinforcing bars in that 12,000-pound concrete wall. i mean, impenetrable. that surrounds the core of each of these buildings, and the core houses the elevators, the life safety systems, the sprinklers, communication systems. is what you've got today is a completely different design than what existed before 9/11. maria: we are now at the one year mark for 3 world trade center, the building that we're in right now. it's got to feel good for you. >> it feels very satisfying. i'm very proud. maria: tell me about the last year in terms of finding the tenants, you know, making sure to come as close to filled up as possible. you were somewhat surprised that you had such demand, right? >> i was surprised because there's a, there's no shortage of office space going up in manhattan today.

but much to my surprise and delight is the fact that we had, we had or -- [inaudible] come along, looked at our trading floors, and i said five. they said, we'll have all five. now to have an advertising company take five trading floors and several floors of office space, they are the anchor tenant for the building. surprised me totally. because the assumption we made is that a financial company would come and require the trading floors for whom we built and designed them. not the case. so they came in, looked at it, took it all, and it's a reflection of the fact that today technology has taken such an immensely important role in all of our lives. and so they're dependent upon technology as are most major corporate users today. most of the office buildings in

new york, which are 80 years of age, 70 years of age, 60 years of age, trying to retrofit those buildings with technological requirements is almost impossible. totally inconvenient and hugely costly. is -- when you put those technological advances into these buildings, day one under construction, it's a piece of cake. maria: that's incredible. so tell me about the technology and what leasers want today in an office space in terms of tech. >> they want every conceivable technological advance available to them. they want to be able to use it. and so probably just a question of time until the 5g technology takes over from where today's technology is. but it gives them access to so much, it's surreal, in such a short period of time, it's almost hard to conceive what's going to happen went when 5g comes long. maria: more of my one-on-one

interview with larry silverstein coming up. ♪ ♪ >> new york city real estate is the most sought after in the world, so who's putting big money in the big apple? >> the chinese have pulled back. the oligarchs seem to have vanished. >> more with maria's one-on-one >> more with maria's one-on-one with larry silverstein when my experience with usaa has been excellent. they really appreciate the military family and it really shows. with all that usaa offers why go with anybody else? we know their rates are good, we know that they're always going to take care of us. it was an instant savings and i should have changed a long time ago. it was funny because when we would call another insurance company, hey would say "oh we can't beat usaa" we're the webber family. we're the tenney's we're the hayles, and we're usaa members for life. ♪ get your usaa auto insurance quote today.

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♪ muck. maria: more insight into real estate and the economy with real estate giant larry silverstein. new york city real estate has changed since 2001. i asked larry if he was surprised in getting tenants back to come downtown as well as who specifically is putting big money into new york. >> it's been a little bit of a challenge. truthfully, it's been a

challenge in ten lifetimes. but the important thing is it worked, we got it done. or almost done. there's one building left to go. that's tower two. but these buildings have held up, and it's testimony to fact that if you build it, they will come, right? you build well-located building, good quality design and priced reasonably, they'll come. maria: there's also been a resurgence of downtown. so you're not just seeing this area up and coming, but you're seeing the remaining areas around here, the nearby areas, because people see activity once again downtown new york. >> and as a result, you have a tripling of the residential population down here. i think we've built 8 or 9,000 hotel rooms down here. maria: broadly speaking, how do you see real estate today? was i know in the -- because i know in the boom days years ago you had the russians, the middle easterners the chinese putting

big money into new york. have the chinese pulled back given the fight with the u.s -- >> the chinese have pulled back. the oligarchs seem to have vanished. and so interestingly, if you look at the funds -- maria: the sovereign wealth funds? >> the sovereign wealth funds with multiple trillions of dollars of money to invest in hard assets, real estate, anytime i get to speak to them, to heads of those funds, the principals, they always say -- i always can them, where do you want to put your money? they always say, united states, because it's safe. they know it's safe. they know we have a m of laws -- a system of laws, that real estate's protected, their investments are protected. then the next question is where in the united states. new york is their first request. where in new york? manhattan. [laughter] number one. then they move to washington, they move to boston, they move to los angeles, other parts of the country. maria: so what are you seeing

then? there's all this conversation happening right now that a recession is on the horizon. look at the inverted yield curve, the federal reserve just recently said, look, we stand ready to act to cut rates. do you see recession on the horizon? >> honestly, i don't. but then again, i'm a little bit of a optimist. i tend to look at things with rose-colored glasses. but as i also look around, i see much of america doing well. the economy, much of the economy is strong and doing well. producing, i mean, look at the job market. the job market, it's really nothing short of remarkable. in addition to which i think we're on the precipice of doing some remarkable things in this country. ultimately, there will be a solution for infrastructure. and when that's offered, they will produce billions of dollars, trillions of dollars in infrastructure development around the country. there's nothing like infrastructure to stimulate the economy. it's always been the case, will

be the case again. and, certainly are, the infrastructure in this country desperately needs doing. maria: what about the federal reserve? do you think they're going to cut rates this year? >> i don't think it's going to be necessary, but if they do, i'd have no violent objection. [laughter] maria: sure. well, you've got to raise money, and you want to see low rates. >> well, low rates are, obviously, very conducive to increased business activity on which we're all dependent. maria: but tell me what overseeing in terms of the economic backdrop right now. >> i see an economic backdrop that is stable. i see it remaining where it is, i see the inexhorrible push for -- inexorable push for health care. i think that's going to increase with time which will benefit economic activity. i think manufacturing slowly but

surely, i think you're going to see an increase in manufacturing in the united states. and i think the trade wars that are going on today, the issues with china and mexico and many of the allied countries, i think those will ultimately dissipate. maria: what to you worry about, the sort of red flags to say, okay, i think we're seeing cracks in this economic boom because, you know, we are going on ten years of this economic expansion. >> the fact that we're going on ten years, i don't think of itself is controlling. i think, you know, look around and what's, what i think is most troubling is the tendency e toward focusing on america. globalization, i think, is enormously important for our future. maria: always has been. >> it's brought stability to world after the two world wars. globalization's made all the difference in the world. so go away from that, i think, is not rational, not beneficial to anybody's best interests.

so i think ultimately people are going to become cognizant of that reality and a new election will be coming to us in 2020, i think it will, it could result in significant changes in some of the policies that we see being implemented today. i think those changes could be very important for america. i mean, we are looking at, we're looking at climate change that has enormously destructive impact on our lives. that's got to be, that's got to be reflected in what we do for tomorrow. it will take major amounts of capital, but it's going to be a necessity to do it. maria: do you feel like your tenants are -- this is something that's very important to them, they want to make sure that the buildings are retrofitted in a certain way to offset some of these things that you're talking about, including climate change? >> well, climate change is enormously important, so what you've got is a constant focus on securing these buildings.

because flooding is a concern, but these buildings have been developed to point where they're not subjected to flooding problems as they were in that last hurricane that hit new york. maria: our thanks to harry silverstein. don't go anywhere, more "wall street" right after this. ♪ fact is, every insurance company hopes you drive safely. but allstate actually helps you drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast...

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6-9 a.m. eastern for mornings with maria. all next week we'll be in cannes, france, live. that'll do it for us this weekend. have a great rest of the weekend, everybody. again next time. ♪ ♪ gerry: hello and welcome to "wall street journal at large." the race for the democratic presidential nomination kicks into high gear this month when the candidates -- well, most of them at any rate -- take a part in the first televised debates. former vice president joe biden continues to be the bookies' and the pollsters' favorites, but it's early days, and there's plenty of reason to think this campaign is very much wide open. now, according to a recent polling average from real clear politics, biden leads the field with 33%, 16 points ahead of bernie sanders. none of the other 20