five feet of ice in the middle of mexico. if it was in the movie you would say farfetched. it happened. unbelievable. david: i don't know how long it lasts but things warmed up. ashley: that is frightening. david: neil cavuto, hailstorm you start your show off with. neil: thanks for that hand off. we're watching what was a storm, at least for a while. stocks are rising. dow no longer in record territory. but the s&p 500 is. we're keeping track of that. oil off its highs. this idea that opec and russia are coming together to stick to these production cut-backs, has some worried that eventually it will lead to sharply higher oil prices, a little higher right now. then there is the issue of manufacturing slowing down a little bit. what is happening on the factory floor that could be permeating throughout the economy, or at least lead to lower interest rates. we'll see. thing got all of this started over the weekend, at least hopes

that talks are back on between the chinese and united states when it comes to a deal, anyone's guess. but the fact they're back on is good enough. edward lawrence, live at the white house with much more on all the above. hey, edward. reporter: neil, wall street likes the fact that the president said china would come back to the bargaining table. the chinese agreed to talk again. president trump agreed to hold off imposing any new tariffs. so far china has not brought back any concessions but secretary ross told me that will come when the two sides sit down at bargaining table again. >> the president thinks he already has sufficient leverage over china. u.s. will not sell out for a bad deal here. will take time it needs to get the right deal. lastly shows that maybe the

administration found a little bit after sweet spot on the tariffs. reporter: critics say the other walk-back from china might be make a mistake. president trump reversed himself that allows u.s. companies to sell parts to huawei. senator marco rubio posted this on twitter, that chinese companies still posts a threat. >> i will continue to work with my colleagues and the administration to make sure we're clear-eyed about the threat huawei poses to the united states and make it a priority to protect american businesses and our national security. reporter: huawei remains on the entity list but the commerce department will offer licenses to companies to sell their products and services to huawei. now a source close to the trade talks says that process has already started. in fact one big one, google has one of these general temporary licenses that allows them to offer its full range of products to huawei. neil? neil: you had no sleep, it

occurs to me. wall street was cheering this on robustly earlier today. still up appreciably. we had a blistering first half. s&p 500 up about 70%. if we equal that in the second half that would be 34%. hard to say we're going to go. go to "fbn:am" co-host lauren simonetti and john lonski, john layfield. this notion trade talks are back on, would that mean an imminent cut in interest rates is maybe pushed back? >> i don't think so. i think we're still getting that cut at the end of july. the fed fund futures market is assigned a 100% probability. it has not moved at all. we don't really have any strong evidence a rejuvenation, reacceleration of business sales that otherwise might change that forecast. this friday, keep an eye own the

employment report. the consensus view we get 65,000 new jobs after only 75,000 new jobs in may. if that is the case, consensus forecast is correct, the case is closed for a rate cut in july. neil: what do you think, lauren? >> it is baked in that you get a rate cull in july. that the federal reserve has become incredibly political, that the rest of the world is going towards easing, adding of stimulus, and that here in the u.s. we're doing quite the opposite, competing with the rest of the world as we have a trade truce with china, there are so many different facets to the story, one way we can compete globally is with lower interest rates. that is you who the market sees it. neil: i hear you. john layfield, the argument has been competing on trade basis, all of sudden weaker currency is, more rates are cut more improves the trade posture,

would that enter the fed' equation, what do you think? >> the fed says it's not. i'm not sure how it doesn't. the fed is working with unemployment. to do that you have a have a very strong economy and strong economy right now at least in the world has weaker currency. president says he wants a stronger currency. everybody president says that until they get in office, then they want weaker currency because it helps trade exports. the trade war is it on hiatus. there is no difference right now and what happened last september. i think market is completely moving what the fed is doing. neil: we are now, john lonski, in the longest recovery in american history, right? everyone gets worried when we hear that, this can't keep going, said that, four years, five years, six years, 10 years plus. >> look at unemployment rate. it is only 3.6%. the last time we had less than 3.6% unemployment rate was more than 50 years ago. so the odds suggest we will have a higher unemployment rate and

with a recession. i want to add something on fed policy we have precedent for the fed cutting rate amid relatively strong economy. strong domestic economy. you remember the time. the summer of 1998. we have the problems in russia and asia and whatnot. neil: everyone was evaluating or forcibly -- >> they cut by 75 basis points. so, you know, there is strong reason to expect that at least in response to a soft world economy, the world needs help. the fed cuts rate. that might, you know, benefit the u.s. and lengthen this already record long economic recovery. neil: meantime the protests in hong kong. they continue unabated here. i think this is, is this live coming in to us, ralph? again from hong kong. they upped the anti-beyond the extradition issue. i'm wondering the chinese caved on that one. i don't know what they will do about this one. >> this has turned violent.

the protesters are largely young. they want a different type of environment. this is a bad look for president xi, what is going on in hong kong and the fact it is happening. on the 98th anniversary of the founding of the communist party of china, this is, this is a bad look for him. neil: there are always wild card and what you remind me, john layfield, black swan developments we don't plan on. could you have said the same a couple weeks ago, when the protests in hong kong first started. the government suspended the extradition order. that is apparently not good enough. this is financial district. it shows that once these spirits are unleashed they are hard to put back in a bottle. >> china has a lot of internal problems right now. forget about the trade war. they have a lot of internal problems politically. they have detention problem, reportedly, one million muslim

weifer is in the province. president she is just punting. he is saying whatever he has to say to kill the clock, just move this thing further down the road to deal with it with all the other issues. neil: they might force his hand, john. >> let's face it, genie is out of the bottle. problems extend beyond economics and international trade. restrictions we're placing on chinese companies as far as access to u.s. technology. so there is a strong political element to this disagreement with china, i think in a way this helps trump politically. neil: in other words they would be well within the wisdom the china fleas to score a deal, last thing they need to get buttressed by this and us? >> what is so interesting going back to the g20 and truce between president trump and president xi, a lot of commentary coming out of the trade truce, while it is not

stimulative, which makes you question the rally and the record highs we're seeing today, a lot of commentary coming out is that president trump went for symbolism over substance. folks are saying this was a win for president xi. that in a sense with huawei, president trump backed down to get a score on this symbolism front. neil: you know, i'm wondering looking at these images, we thought this died down. there was a push on the part of, chinese control to sort of say, all right, you made your point. we suspended this extra decision order you guys found so repelling. crowds gathered again on separate issues. this on anniversary on handover from british control of hong kong to chinese control some 22 years ago. is this a powderkeg? how do you see it, john? >> i see it as an absolute powderkeg for president xi. i'm seeing opposite when you talk about the trade war. i don't think he can be seen to

what china deems an imperial power trying to come in. they're dealing this from imperial power before gave hong kong back to the people. china is trying to figure into that mix somehow politically. i don't think china can right now afford to give in to the united states. that is why president xi is killing the clock, trying to punt this ball down the road where where he doesn't have to deal with it right now. he has a lot of issues. it is an absolute powderkeg right now. there are two distinct parties in china fighting for control. the old guard president xi is trying to strong arm his way to stay in power. it is not really working right now. neil: you know i'm wondering, i don't know if there is connection, john lonski with markets coming off the highs, it is still up a lot i want to posit, i wonder if these images flashing around the world are helping matters? >> there is reminder many of disagreements we have with china why vet to be resolved. we know quite well that

president trump can change his opinion, his mind on a dime. neil: make this part of the discussions too, right? >> it might possibly happen. neil: you know, when you were looking at this early this morning, i'm just wondering, whether hong kong is going in a very different direction, obviously what china wants. they're not ceasing and desisting. i am wondering if it will affect that going forward? >> the hong kong market is closed today for another reason. there are two sets of protesters here. there the are ones that want to demonstrate peacefully. there are some angry about a lot of things, turning violent, throwing things at the police. this looks like as much as china, carrie lam the ceo try to contain it. quite the opposite is happening. looks like it is getting "worser" by the hour. neil: i want to thank you guys. we'll continue monitoring this very closely. this could be me linking

something that is not tangential to what happened in the markets highs that were double with we're looking at right now. this is not a constructive development here. it goes way beyond extradition orders, more about whether people can freely assemble in hong kong. authorities say no you can't, cool it. they areor saying no you're not. more after this. every day, invesco combines ideas with technology, data with inspiration, investors with solutions. because the possibilities of life and investing are greater when we come together. ♪

neil: all right. it is after midnight in hong kong. you're looking at some live shots coming in to us now where authorities there have been urging protesters to clear the streets or at least calm down. this is anniversary of the formal handover from the brits to the chinese of hong kong. and at the time the idea was that hong kong would have a separate but equal sort of status with main mainland china. but be very separate. it was a capitalist bastion that would continue to enjoy

widespread corporate investment and am peel. that was 22 years ago. growing questions whether that will continue. it began with a push on the part of china to get extradition orders out. if you were found guilty of a crime, suspected guilty of a crime, they would ship you to hong kong, even if you were a visitor to the region to china to be reprimanded, critics say, god foes what. that was later rescinded, not totally taken off the table, suspended. they want it permanently removed. they are using this to agitate the chinese authorities for not being more responsetive to their demands. it is in a word a mess. former deputy secretary of defense president bush, peter brookes. >> i sate to see the violence, vandalism that is going on. they are worried about erosion of liberties that were promised

under this deal in 1997, to full transition of chinese rule. china has a lot of influence there. their foreign policy is run by china. there are chinese garrisons there. they are worried about this happening quicker. they are worried about the prospects of democracy and economic freedom. people are very, very unhappy. this extradition bill obviously set them off but i'm supportive of peaceful protests to express themselves but i hate to see this sort of evolve into this sort of a melee. neil: i'm just wondering, we always fear a link past historical events that might not anything to do with this one, tianamen square, peter, authorities after demonstrations were going on, we get your point, you can break up, they refused to break up. there was a point which the military intervened and quashed that. hundreds, maybe thousands were killed at the time. we hope it doesn't jell into something like that. they don't look like a group

that is sort of disbanding? >> we've seen protests in the past. like i said there is a tremendous amount of social tension and concern of the hong kongers about their future and rightfully so. hong kong has had tremendous successes in a number of areas including economics. they're also concerned about what they're seeing in western china, in shinjnog with the wiegers and others. democratic taiwan, which china, beijing considers a renegade province, not an independent country. they're worried about this and looking around and looking at chinese increasing power and willingness to assert itself. they're rightfully worried but i'm not sure i support their tactics. they're very concerned. this is not common in hong kong. so you know that people are very agitated. neil: you know i also wonder how this might affect trade talks going on going on between

ourselves and chinese, that is part of that or does this compel the chinese to make a deal with the united states? >> i don't necessarily see them as related, but maybe some others, maybe some others do. there is nothing unrelated i would say in terms of u.s.-china relations, right? north korea, north korea is part of that, climate is part of that, energy policy, there are some things out there that this relationship is so complex that it is difficult to separate these things and hope they may not be part of other negotiations but china has a big world view. they certainly will employ it. neil: i'm wondering whether you look at this as something that could grow into a bigger regional issue here? that the chinese at their core, they're pretty tough guys. they might be a capitalist society as well but say they balance that gingerly, but successfully certainly over the last few decades but when push comes to shove they err on being

side, one analyst calls it the bully they have been throughout. what do you think? >> china knows how to bully. it is politically repressive. you talk about a lot of economics and focus on economics here but look at china internally, politically, it is repressive. socially it want be very repressive. it is powerful and will throw its weight around whether economics or national security. neil, look what they did in the south china sea. they created seven islands and claimed a thousand miles of a china sea as a chinese lake. it is asserting what it believes its interest. president she is one of the most assertive presidents in china a long time, maybe since mao. neil: we'll watch it closely, peter. thanks for taking the time. we'll keep an eye on this. it might have taken some of the life out of the american rally going on at the corner of wall

and broad, maybe added to some of the oil angst. that is separate issue. for now a worry mildly, after this. can't see what it is yet.re? what is that? that's a blazer? that's a chevy blazer? aww, this is dope. this thing is beautiful. i love the lights. oh man, it's got a mean face on it. it looks like a piece of candy. look at the interior. this is nice. this is my sexy mom car. i would feel like a cool dad. it's just really chic. i love this thing. it's gorgeous. i would pull up in this in a heartbeat. i want one of these.

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neil: all right. continuing following developments right now in hong kong. the police were using a tear gas, anything else they can get their hands on to disperse protesters. getting reports of extreme acts of violence here. a lot of that is something we can't confirm on a widespread basis. we've certainly seen anecdotally, some of the videos, including live feeds, limited instances of what would be excessive force but, as far where this is going it is anyone's guess. they were supposed to be off the streets at 10:00 p.m. their time. i believe it is after midnight right now, just back from that

region of the world is "after the bell" co-host, connell mcshane. connell, i remember when you were discovering whole situation in hong kong and china, they thought they had this put to bed when they settled the extradition thing by suspending it but not eliminating it. >> right. they have half settled it. when we were there the first day, 13th of june, if that was the wednesday protest which was the most, largest one maybe until what we're seeing today or tonight in hong kong, it came to a point about 11:00 in the morning or noon where they delayed the extra decision bill. a lot of people were surprised by that. they said they didn't think essentially the chinese government in beijing which backs the government in hong kong would give in like that but the protesters from the beginning said that's fine but we want this thing out completely. i think you were saying a little bit, few minutes ago, upping the

ante, other things in hong kong, how legislators are elected. they would like to see all the legislative council elected as opposed to chosen. we have minor victory here. actually probably a little bit of a minor victory. we have one victory in. see how much more we can get. neil: military types fear, give the protesters an inch, give them a mile. they will demand other things. they are demanding to your point maybe other issues here, they feel strike while the iron is hot but the iron can be hot both ways. >> it can. the big question is how would china respond and the response so far has been to try to limit how much information their own people have about this. it is so clear that that -- far more than the trade talks -- that wednesday we were covering the big protest. by saturday we were in main mainland china. the next protest or demonstration broke out the

following day on sunday. see the difference being in hong kong which is a free open society. neil: they get all the news.one one one hers. neil: in china they don't get any of it. they would have a vpn, connected to the internet in some other way, someone else telling them about it. a small example, when i first got back on television, if you're watching one of the main international feeds, coming into a western hotel, anywhere in china, once the protest coverage comes on, you and i could be on, if we're being broadcast into main mainland china, talking about the trade talks, we could talk about anything else in the news, iran, once our coverage were to go to this, boom, off the air. neil: is that right? >> the screen goes black. neil: that instantaneous? >> 100%. neil: what if we're talking about it, not showing it. >> it depends. we have on tv a banner, hong kong police, that might show on the screen. every time i saw it week or so you were there, right away that

cuts off. they're sensitive to seeing how much their people see of this. in some instances i know the hotel in shenzhen which is drivable from hong kong, two or three seconds later another video would play, clearly propaganda video. people walking around, dancing having fun in china. no joke. that would play as long as soon a network, say the bbc, for example, was in the coverage, because then, suddenly the that video would go away, it would ga back to something else, they're talking about another story, not hong kong related. they are really sensitive how it is portrayed with their own people in china. you could read into that there are fears, i asked one of the local government officials, vice mayor of shenzhen while we were there, are you worried this is going to, just across the border, hour 1/2 drive, will that spread to main mainland china? he talked around it. basically we have full confidence the government in hong kong can keep people in

check something along those terms. this is time after midnight. this is the same thing that happened when we were there. that you have, in any protest movement, if you have troublemakers so to speak, people, maybe outside element brought in, that is when things start to get, a little bit more worked up later in the night. now the police, but the difference between a protest we might see here and there, the police, as soon as it gets to the point they're not afraid to move in, with the tear gas and rubber bullets. neil: i noticed they upped ante a little bit, protesters storming into storefronts and bank fronts, you could tell, that is enough. >> yeah. neil: you've been there a number of times in the whole region. do you get a sense, we had one analysts one of your appearances on the show, saying you have to remember, neil, at their core they're a military juggernaut. it is all about the military. it is all about the iron fist, not so much the capitalism part

and the capitalism part, if you think about it, made them this world power. >> 100%. neil: when push comes to shove they will revert to that to make their point? >> that is probably fair. think about it from the trade perspective with these negotiations going on, talking about china now, not in hong kong, what are they most sensitive about? it is any kind of, what they perceive structural change to their system. do they have some elements of capitalism in their system? of course. people refer to it as kind of state capitalism, they also have, they being chinese have state-owned enterprises are a huge, kind of where the power is centered for the communist party. any threat to those state-owned enterprises is where they start to say no, no, we're not changing that. there are what they refer to as red lines. that goes back to over the weekend what president trump may or may not have discussed with president she in china there are still these red lines if you cross those lines they see as trying to hold china's rise down

or change their system structurally, i think maybe part of what we're seeing in hong kong, at least on periphery, refers to that, be careful, they will not give in on those things. make progress some ways, buy more agricultural products. it is clear, probably a symptom, kind of an illustration of this, there is a long way to go. neil: probably an understatement. thank you, connell. thank you very much. >> all right. neil: to connell's point, the protesters are not backing down, the government is not backing down. a lot of people watching it very closely. there could be a sense, you talk crassly about global trading impact, for hong kong probably a good thing their markets are closed today. for us it could be a flight to quality or flight to more pristine shores here. at least less violent ones for the time-being. dow up 96 points. more after this.

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that is important almost to china. precondition. my buddy, after the bell co-host, connell mcshane. he visited the headquarters and deirdre bolton on behalf of this i was told told this has got to be in play. >> whether huawei is national security threat part of a trade negotiations, some sort of a bargaining chip in the negotiations. it has been clear pretty much from day one that the president sees it as a bargaining chip. we were at the company, that is what they were hoping for. that is lesser than two evils. we can listen a little bit with executive from huawei. if you're cracking down from us at huawei. be careful what you wish for.

they will take a hit as well. we can talk about the subject. here it is. you're saying there could be impact from what the u.s. government is doing on americans? what does that actually look like? >> stopping huawei to impact about relationships for a couple of decades will mean they lost export sales, they can't be picked up by other companies. that estimate is 56 billion. and that 56 billion includes 74,000 jobs. >> that is a study he is citing, whatever the numbers are, the decision for the administration, is it worth it roar, it? going to take a hit for broad come and micron technology. now for the short term they decided it wasn't worth it.

>> huawei is 30 american companies, here is 30 of your companies going to be hurt. that is part of one-upmanship. neil: that alone would be two billion dollars hit. right? wondering if that is more of an inflows. >> two ways of looking at it. all or nothing, you're either a threat or a not. maybe there is nuanced view, the president's view, difference between an import ban and export ban. in other words, you can say we'll not allow huawei's technology to come in here to the united states, build our 5g networks. maybe there is not as much danger allowing u.s. companies to export their business to huawei. i don't know if you can three the needle. seems like what they're trying to do. >> separately, it gets really

tricky with costs. love or hate huawei, they make really cheap 5g gear. >> they're everywhere. >> everywhere. neil: this company we're trying to isolate is in bed with everyone. >> things to all the merger and activity in the past decade, there are only five companies in the world that do this anymore. huawei is one, zte is another. then the europeans, ericsson and nokia. even our rural communities went to the state legislators -- neil: they have nowhere else to go. >> they have actually said point-blank we can't afford equipment from nokia and ericsson. if you, united states government ban huawei, you have to help us out. you have to subsidize the stuck struck that we're building out if you don't want us to use that equipment. then obviously we tried to strong arm our allies as well? we tried to strong arm the uk. we tried to strong arm germany not into using huawei. well, they make cheap gear. we know they're spying on us we're already hedging that. so back to you. >> back to you.

if you're marco rubio, very aggressive on this, kind of a leader on, i guess the china hawk contingent in the senate, whatever it is, if you say it is worth it to do all of this because the national security threat kind of overrides all of that. that is the decision that will have to be made in the long term. why i said the president -- neil: he has been apoplectic bit. >> he has been all over. neil: he is not going along party line. >> this is the poster child. this has been the drumbeat. we had former cfo through canada, arrested in canada. this has really been this -- neil: no one doubts they spy. >> no one doubts that. >> except huawei. neil: except huawei. >> they deny it. neil: all that stuff you heard is false? >> they deny it. they will take about the fact that the intellectual property disputes company to company, the answer to that, whether it is company like huawei or chinese government, you guys have intellectual property disputes yourself. you have google suing of one company and one company suing

other. we're not only ones that do that. that is the basic answer. neil: did it for him. >> on the spying they denied that they denied the spying. the debate there really whether or not there is a backdoor that can be opened because huawei's defense to all of this, we don't even have access to the data, the telecom companies do. even if we wanted to spy we couldn't. the argument from the u.s. government and rubio and all these people -- neil: you will somehow find a way. >> it is set up someone could get in if they needed to. >> the germany and uk said yes you can, we have things in place so we know what you're taking. >> bottom line there is cost to all of this. you have to decide whether or not it is worth it. neil: for the companies, micron, among the big semiconductor players benefiting from the turn around to keep huawei as a company they can do business. that is important to them. for a while it was very important to the overall markets which are still up, not as much

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neil: all right. we officially broke a record today. the longest period the u.s. has gone without recession. manufacturing showing a little bit of a slowdown. to former ronald reagan advisor art laffer, on how long this can keep going. of course, art, just won the presidential medal of freedom recognized by president of the united states, some others iconic figure he is in our history, deservedly so. art, good to have you. >> thank you very much, neil. could you say all that again. i loved it. neil: i got your script as intro. i thought it was too much. >> it was. neil: seriously, i congratulate

you. >> thank you very much, neil. neil: tip of the hat to economic expansion, more than a decade old now. >> it is great. neil: people get nervous, when it was three years old, five years old, seven years old, it can't go on, and now we're here into our 11th year. what do you think? >> yeah. i think it can go on as long as policies change. there is nothing intrinsic in time how long it is going. it is policies that make a difference, keep it going. as long as we have tax cuts in place, maybe some more, as long as we have great deregulation, that one today, not today, but last week, week before last, transparency in medicine is amazingly wonderful, neil that would add a lot to gp. it would lower the cost of medicine. we have decent monetary policy trade policy sup in the air. looks like we're making progress. the big bad one is government spending and government spending is way out of control. no one has done anything about

that. what i hope for trump's second term, really grab on to spending, bring it down, bring it down a lot. he is the only one i imagine can do that. neil: look at a long recovery occurred under two presidents now. to whom do you give the credit? >> i give the credit to, you don't want me to say, i give credit to obama for really precipitating a huge crash. he and w did a masterful job of my view of economy, with bailouts and all that stuff they did and -- neil: barack obama, wait a minute, barack obama din precipitate a crash. you're not saying that, did he? >> when you look at it, the prospects of obama becoming a elected, stock market are matched almost perfectly -- neil: art, i love you to death. we were in a meltdown well before that. >> not well before that. that is not true. we were in a meltdown, that is true. i think right at the beginning, but that really corresponded with the election coming on. my view.

i'm wrong a lot. neil: i think you're wrong on this i'm kidding, but -- >> markets point to the future. neil: fair enough, i think obama thing is a bit of a stretch, having said that i'm not apologist for either camp. i want to look at where we came from and where we are now. >> it was a slow recovery. neil: you're right. what keeps this one going? if we keep it going, how would it happen? >> i think policies. increased growth rates at the very end of a cycle which is amazing. the growth rate under trump are i here an than any year under obama. because of great policies, tax cuts, deregulation. monetary is okay. you're seeing all of this stuff coming through. spending is the big problem going forward. neil: you've been worried about that. you're worried about that. you liked bill clinton and tax cuts especially business tax cuts. >> i did. neil: any democratic candidates i know who you're for, do any of them intrigue you more than

others? >> not so far. i haven't seen anything. they all want universal health care. want health care for illegal aliens. next thing they want to help illegal alien families in their own countries. should fall under it as well. just joking. if you look at all these policies, none of the policies are pro-growth. they all want to repeal the corporate tax cut. it doesn't look good from my standpoint, any of these people's policies. that could change in a moment. if joe biden went back to his old policies. i'm sure joe voted clearly for the 1986 tax act. neil: the 1986 one or 1886 one? >> '86 tax act. neil: i know. >> dropped highest rate to 28%. droppedded corporate rate from 46 to 34%. that was a great boost of economic growth in the u.s. f some of the democrats went back to their roots, everyone in the

congress voted for are that in the senate, except for three people. all three were democrats. all of the big ones. teddy kennedy voted for it. al gore voted for it. dick durbin voted for it. harry reid. if democrats go to the supply side roots, when i was voting for democrats i would love it. i think they could keep the prosperity going. they don't show any inclination to do that, neil. neil: all right, mr. presidential medal of freedom. thank you. >> don't you agree with me? don't you see a sign of hope? neil: no, i ask the questions here. i'm kidding. just kidding. >> you're my hero, neil. i look to you. neil: you're the best. thank you, my friend, very, very much another guy could be the next presidential medal of freedom recipient. the book is "unstoppable prosperity." charles payne is author. influential in washington and wall street circles. interesting book. addresses the things we're looking at, aberrant, hong kong,

a black swan development. >> absolutely. neil: what is an investor to do? >> you have to know the fundamentals. the reason i created the book, people tell me they have an idea, but they don't know where to go from there. first of all the average person knows so much more about where to invest than they give themselves credit for. the book says, listen, you have an inkling. you're the shopper. you're the person that buys these things. you're the person that stops buying these things. you have an idea how the book goes about further. making sure an idea makes sense. building a portfolio, managing it, ignoring things that are temporary. the headlines are vicious. headlines move markets. al gore -- algorithms reed headlines. neil: how do you deal with events coming out of nowhere, people hanging on to investments for years and all of a sudden aren't? you talk about the conundrum

having something ever a proven winner and they get out? >> company has 50% market share. then they have 47% market share. then they have 44% market share. it doesn't happen overnight. neil: you said the best barometer are. that is something that is a constant. >> earnings are a constant. how do the companies get to the earnings. the earnings, we know there are all kind of ways to manufacture earnings. i say listen, want to know the health after company, start at at the top. if they raise prices without losing margin, expanding, history of execution. you don't have to be a brain surgeon. i consider myself smart but you don't have to be a brain surgeon. these are things i've been doing for 30 years. neil: brain surgeons are not good at -- >> you're right. neil: doctors, thank god you're doing this. >> you know why? they make a classic investment mistake. they fall in love with something

they think it is great. when i was a broker, i would have doctors lost fortunes on some new medical device they thought was amazing. engineers, engineers would buy the stocks because they knew the chip would be revolutionary. sometimes to your point you can be so right, so think you know the product so well you passionate and don't do the homework. neil: you talk about the fact being confident in the country and history, getting through it. you talk about periods where it looked like we were down and out, we would never come back. longer term the market is your friend. not every longer term, right? how do you play that? >> so far every longer term. neil: dividends, throw that into it, you're doing okay? >> you're doing great. we always rebounded. i tell people where is the next 200% move to the market. won't be to the downside. obviously couldn't be. being a little facetious. next 200% move to the market will be to the upside. i don't know how many crashes we'll have between now and then,

i'm confident we'll have 100% to the upside, 200% to the upside. as long as we remain the economic engine. that will perhaps not changeover night. that is something to be concerned about, maybe down the road. i want people to change their lives. it is not becoming a millionaire, multimillionaire. it is about putting kids through college. outside of buying my mother a house, the house, in the town she grew up in that belonged to the mayor of her town, the second best financial gift i could ever give anyone is my son. he will not have any college debt. i want people watching the sew to think, maybe i'll get a condo on the beach. maybe put on are two kids through school. you can do more with the book. but those are realliesed goals. neil: i already told them your mother and i are spending every last penny. >> i heard about that. neil: you talked about a these periods where you get hit and get hit hard. hard for people to have a strong

stomach. what do you think about the dollar-cost averaging same amount of market into a fund, basket of stocks. >> if you don't want to take total control that is the next best thing to do. the worst thing to do is not do anything. the worst thing to do is fret and "forbes" magazine comes out and 400 richest people. 390 of them own the market. their fortunes are based in the stock market. by the way here is a democratic thing. you can be an owner of google, owner of facebook, be an owner of all these companies, buy as many shares you want and be committed to it. that is the second best thing. the best thing if you can, wherewithal, do it and try it yourself. neil: you see a day like this, we're well off the highs, it has been a incredible market. >> right. neil: how do you play that? when you invest, talk to people who want to invest, what do you do? >> for example an example, in my trading service we took profits on five or six ideas at the

open. the things i'm buying and holding, i don't think we sold any. neil: is that right? >> right. because those fundamentals haven't changed. neil: how long do you hold them? >> as long as fundamentals are improving. if the fundamentals keep getting better, then i'm holding. share price tells me nothing. if the company is still taking market share, still beating competition, margins are still growing i want to be in it. i don't want to guess because the stock is up we sell it like that. and so today though another example. what triggered this sell something just the idea now after the manufacturing data came in this morning, ant it wasn't as weak as these people thought the fed won't cut 50 basis points. it will be 25. those nonsense things you can't get hung up in them. neil: overobsess. "unstoppable prosperity" is the book. stories how he started out. couldn't come from less money, less influence, less anything.

we don't know what happened to him. apparently he did okay, i think his investment insight is second to none. we have a lot more coming up. you're watching fox business. stay with us. we call it the mother standard of care.

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$4.95. no matter what you trade, at fidelity it's just $4.95 per online u.s. equity trade. neil: all right. stocks are still up, they're just not up as much but it's remarkable in the face of everything that's going on in hong kong right now and some of these images that are staggering and a whole lot scary, that maybe things could be really erupting there. there are a lot of issues we can get into and will, in the next hour. suffice it to say it was probably a good thing the hong kong market was closed today. to dave dodson and also sean o'hara on what they make of these latest developments. professor, let me go to you first. the stanford view of what's happening right now in hong kong, because a lot of people thought they settled this with the extradition thing, everything will calm down, now it's reaccelerated. how do you deal with that?

>> well, you know, i don't really know what's going to happen in the business community. they have got to obviously calm this down. china has a lot of fires they are working on right now, of which hong kong has flared up. i think they sort of thought it got taken care of, now it got worse. i think that was primarily the release of all the videos that came out over the last week of the violence that's taking place. neil: you know, looking at this, a lot of people are waiting for -- this sounds very crass -- an excuse to sell. everything's not perfect and everything on the trade front could be totally discombobulated by what's happening in hong kong. people obviously jump ahead of themselves. is this a reason to do that? >> i don't think so yet, neil. i think that the market continues to go a little higher from here. i think the news out of the weekend was positive news. i do think you are spot on, i think everybody who is a long investor in equities is sort of feeling like a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs

waiting for the next shoe to drop, if you will. it's been a very long expansion. you mentioned that in the open. from a total return perspective, it's really not in the top yet so this long slow, as we complained about it for six or eight years, expansion that we have seen is actually probably been the biggest driver to allowing it to continue. neil: you think about china, it became this economic juggernaut. for a communist state it was an anomaly, if you will, sort of a successful dichotomy, but ultimately we are told by historians you have to be one or the other. i think that's a bit simplistic. if it reverts to be the same country it was 30 years ago in tiananmen square when it said enough is enough, i know that was long before it became an economic super power it is, so it would be more risky to take that strategy now. what do you think? >> look, we are only a couple decades away from the hundred year anniversary of the peoples republic of china. by the way, china thinks in

terms -- not in terms of quarterly earnings but in terms of generation. so as we come across the hundred year anniversary of the peoples republic of china, we are seeing this very clear evolution from having concerns about the social part of china to the economic part of china, so what we've got, in some ways, especially going into these trade negotiations, neil, they have kind of got the best of both things which is they've got the benefit of a command economy while they're negotiating with their big trading partner. at the same time, they are largely a free market system. neil: i'm looking at what has been moving in our country post this promising development on trade talks. i'm not talking about what's going on in hong kong. it's benefited u.s. semiconductors, a lot of trade-sensitive issues within the dow, the big names like caterpillar and deere and some of the others that could benefit from a safer trade environment. that will win the day. do you agree with that? >> 100% agree with that. we have been focusing on the semis and they have been a great story.

we are overweight that sector, that subsector, if you will. the bigger picture here, i think what people are more worried about, is so far these tariffs have not been -- bled through, if you will, to the end baiuyer. china has been absorbing them, manufacturers have been absorbing some. this next round if they had gone on would probably put pressure on prices and that's a negative to the market. for the industrials, for manufacturing, for the clothing companies who source their materials out of there, all of those things are affected by these tariffs and they don't get enough attention as it relates to it. we see the big pops like we own micron technology, we own applied materials in one of our etfs. micron, i just announced they are going to acquire a japanese chip maker. that part of the market, 5g, the internet of things, streaming video, e-commerce, that backbone relies on the chip makers. we think that's a good long-term trend. neil: professor, you deal with a lot of young kids.

we are told when we looked at this ten-year point in this recovery, as well as the market after a very strong first half, that the least participation was among young people, that either they are cynical or jaded, the same with housing and a lot of these other institutions that were the core of say even their parents' point of view and strategy but not for them. i don't know if that applies to the students you work with, but why is that? >> well, you know, there's an interesting statistic, which is that back one generation ago, 90% of americans by the time they reached age 30 made more than their parents. today, it's dropped all the way to 50%. there is actually pretty good basis for the cynicism. they are discovering their vote doesn't matter. they vote for people, then go to washington, d.c. and we have this clear party line vote where we have the democratic vote and the republican vote and they do as they're told. young people are looking saying i don't have the economic future that i thought, my vote doesn't

really count and oh, by the way, debt is going through the roof and i've got this massive student debt. they actually have a pretty good reason to be cynical. then they look at the breakup/makeup presidency, every week he's broken up with someone, then he gets back together with another foreign leader, and it's kind of mind-boggling. i think there's a certain numbness that's being developed. neil: very interesting. we will watch closely. hopefully they're not so jaded, so cynical they give up on everything. >> i will try to work on that a little bit. neil: if anyone can, it's you, professor. sean, thank you as well. great read on what's happening, particularly on the technology front. let's get the read from the white house right now. because you have this, you have the g20 just wrapped up, the talks with north korea. they have a lot to crow about here. let's get to the latest thinking from the white house on all these developments. hillary vaughn is there. reporter: hey, neil. president trump made history, taking a step into north korea, the first sitting president to do so, as north korea takes a fresh step towards denuclear

sayings. president trump saying he and north korean leader kim jong-un agreed to pick up nuclear negotiations and says the goal is not a fast deal but a good deal with kim. the president tweeting this morning thank you to president moon of south korea for hosting the american delegation and me, immediately following the very successful g20 in japan. while there it was great to call on chairman kim of north korea to have our very well-covered meeting. good things can happen for all. the president says they are delegating a team to head up the re-started talks between north korea and the u.s. the "new york times" is reporting that a nuclear freeze is on the table which would essentially allow north korea to maintain its status quo instead of drawing down their nuclear power. but administration officials are publicly pushing back on this report. national security adviser john bolton twee oon tweeting this i response. i read this "new york times" story with curiosity. neither the nsc staff nor i have discussed or heard of any desire to settle for a nuclear freeze

by north korea. this was a reprehensible attempt by someone to box in the president. there should be consequences. trump also making a big leap of progress with china trade talks. in a meeting between the president and president xi of china, the leaders decided to come back to the negotiating table. trump also agreed to take additional tariffs off the table while china has also agreed to purchase more agricultural products from american farmers. in an exclusive interview with tucker carlson, the president says china and the u.s. both want to make a deal. >> you just recently hours ago met with the chinese president, xi jinping. >> i did. >> are you closer, do you think, after that meeting, to a trade deal? >> i think so. we had a very good meeting. he wants to make a deal. i want to make a deal. very big deal. i guess you would say the largest deal ever made of any kind, not only trade. we got along very well. we understand each other. reporter: he said they have agreed to let u.s. companies sell products to huawei but the ban on huawei here in the u.s.

still stands. trump indicating that they are going to wait until the very end of negotiations before trying to work out some sort of agreement over huawei. neil? neil: hillary, thank you very much. hillary vaughn at the white house. looks like oil prices are slipping well off their highs. for awhile, turning negative. they are up a tad right now. this despite the fact that opec and russia have agreed to extend their production cuts for at least another nine months. they were agitated as well by growing friction with iran and now the fact that it has gone ahead and breached its nuclear agreement, and that just added to a lot of angst. then of course you had the hong kong situation. all these are competing with one another to essentially have noil flat on the day. more after this. fact is, every insurance company hopes you drive safely. but allstate actually helps you drive safely... with drivewise. it lets you know when you go too fast...

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we went and met at the line and in meeting at the line, i said would you like me to come

across? he said i would be so honored and that's the way it worked out. i didn't know really what he was going to say. but it was my honor to do it. neil: and indeed he did it, becoming the first u.s. president to step on the north korean territory. the president saying he's very upbeat about not only a future meeting but maybe resolving some of these differences that have escaped the two leaders over the last three chats, including this albeit limited one. joel witt is with us, he coordinated the 1994 north korean nuclear deal. very good to have you. thank you for coming. >> thank you for having me. neil: i notice one of your comments, i hope i've got this right, you said it's nice the trump bromance continues but it will take more than a short rendezvous to negotiate denuclearization. what do you want to see next? >> that's exactly it. i made that comment before this meeting and they did exactly the right thing, which is to say that negotiators will sit down

and talk. so the next thing we need to see is for them to sit down and talk and really dig into the issues to resolve the differences and start reaching agreements. neil: how confident are you that can happen? last time, particularly in hanoi, it didn't end well. >> well, this is very different from summits. we're not talking about a summit. we are talking about guys who actually can negotiate deals, can sit for days and even weeks in a room to work out the differences between the two sides. as you know, that's not something leaders can do. neil: yeah. i'm wondering too about the pressure the north korean regime or more to the point, kim jong-un himself, is under. >> well, that's an excellent question, because there's some evidence to suggest that it was some backlash after the failure of the hanoi summit, and that there are opponents to kim and his regime, who think he's -- he shouldn't be doing what he's

doing. but the fact is the two leaders agreed to have negotiators meet says to me that those opponents are under control. neil: when we look at the region, look at the role china might play, handicap that for me. because the latest wrinkle is obviously what's going on in hong kong. how much does that complicate things, if at all? >> you know, i'm writing a book about the history of u.s./north korean relations and one of the themes is repeatedly, americans think china can help them out. americans think china can pressure north korea to do the right thing. the fact is that's never happened. so i think what we really need to do is look to ourselves and figure out a way out of this problem that we have and of course, the chinese will go along with us because they want the region to remain peaceful. neil: you mentioned that it's never happened. i have always been curious about that. why?

>> well, there are a number of different reasons. china and the united states do have common interests. we both don't want north korea to have nuclear weapons. but the chinese are also i think much more concerned about stability on their borders. that leads them to not want to put too much pressure on the north koreans and quite frankly, the north koreans, when they're pressured, don't respond well. the chinese know that. so i think that leads to a stand-off between the two. neil: well put. sir, very good catching up with you. good seeing you again. >> good to see you, too. neil: meantime, charlie gasparino on joe biden's biggest worry. it has a lot to do with sinking poll numbers and maybe sinking donations. after this. xfinity mobile is a wireless network

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neil: mayor pete buttigieg has raised nearly $24 million over the quarter. should joe biden be worried? charlie gasparino with the latest he's hearing on the money raising front. there can sometimes be a connection, right? >> i don't think of that, he's worried. joe biden should be worrying about answering the question that kamala harris put up to him, appropriately, his support of bussing which by the way, 90% of the american public hated when it was going down. i don't know what she was kind of talking like it was the golden age -- neil: was surprising he wasn't ready for that. he was ready for the segregationist comment. he was not ready for that. >> for bussing. plus it was an easy answer. the american people did not like bussing, he didn't want the federal government imposing it, it's local communities like kamala harris who grew up fairly affluent in berkeley, parents were professors, that berkeley instituted voluntary stuff. if local communities want to do

it he said have at it. he couldn't articulate that. that's the problem. the thing about buttigieg, i think, this is key, because i was talking to democratic fund-raisers today, is that first off, this is kind of legacy, like he came out of the gate pretty good, right. it's the more recent stuff that people have questions about. he had that controversy about the shooting, the police officer shooting in the city that he's mayor of, south bend, i believe, right? and his debate performance was pretty lame, i think a lot of people would say. neil: flat. >> flat, yeah. i think what they're saying is look at the more current stuff and we don't believe it's this good. then again, that said, pete buttigieg has a good wall street sort of collection agency out there. he can raise money. but keeping it going is a problem. obviously the winner of the debate i think she won on a cheap shot, though, is kamala harris.

you know, you know, biden has got to be better if he wants to survive. everybody knows it. neil: but it's not so much his poll numbers as much as his and hers. >> i spoke with his people as well. they pointed out his poll numbers didn't take that big a hit. he did not want to get in a fight with her on stage about bussing. he thought it would hurt him. and he thinks his support is still strong. he's got a lot of good will. neil: he could be that party's jeb bush. >> i think a lot of democrats i speak to worry that the other ones can't beat trump. it's kind of interesting. like they don't see kamala harris -- kamala harris will have some issues that donald trump will attack her on. i mean, she wants to, you know, run a campaign on bussing, trump will take that any day of the week given how controversial it was and just how it was basically focused on working

class people and you know, bussing kids hours around. neil: it showed her prosecutorial strength, though. that is a skill set -- >> she's good at that. is she going to be able to handle the haymakers of donald trump because he goes down and dirty. i think people are worried about her and buttigieg and cory booker really sort of -- really going up against him, that he might just -- neil: people still think -- >> they still think as old as he sounds and he did kind of sound tired, i don't know about old, but tired, and he did not answer those questions well, and he kept saying like my time is up, kind of talk through that, right, they think if they can get these kinks out he's in the best position to beat trump. he lines up against him well. he could be nasty, too, when he wants to. neil: absolutely. >> they think he can counter it. i'm just telling you, these

democratic candidates think they are going to run on, you know, far left progressive politics, racial politics, racial identity politics, economics, the country as crazy as donald trump is, you are asking the country to go -- to enact a social change, we didn't go through that in the '60s, if you think about it. the policies of the politicians in the '60s never adopted all that. it's crazy. neil: we'll see. you're crazy. >> yes, i am. by the way, you are going to appear in a movie? neil: that will be enough. see you, my friend. >> i got a call from the 14th floor. neil: a lot more coming up, including trade talks that are back on. if you think about it, is a rate cut suddenly off? we'll explore that after this. ♪

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neil: take a look at the dow 30 right now. boeing, a big drag on the dow, down about $9 a share. it's interesting, when i look at these players that had been doing okay like caterpillar and walmart, you could easily include the likes of cisco, the international players with an improved trade posture with china would do well. they had been briefly, not boeing, but not so much right now. we are still up about 56.5

points. again, well off our highs. what does this mean going forward, particularly if we do get a china deal, for the prospect of rate cuts after that? given the fact we scored a deal with the chinese, it could be a ways off. gerri willis with that and more from the new york stock exchange. gerri: that's right. this is interesting. the dow is up as much as 250 points, setting a new intraday high, as did the s&p. now the dow up just 57. what's going on? it's that other shoe dropping. we are seeing that traders are reconsidering what they made of the statements over the weekend and now starting to say hey, what does this mean. yeah, we are getting back to the table on trade but there will be an actual deal. there is mixed reaction down here to the idea of whether we get an interest rate cut, what the impact of the weekend's happenings will have on the discussion of a rate cut by the fed at the end of july. some folks say this is a great excuse to delay, to pause a rate cut, to get it off the table.

other folks are telling me it's not really about the trade, it's about earnings, we are getting into earnings season big-time. others saying hey, a rate cut is already baked in and what's more, they are looking to get the yield curve uninverted and that's really the priority here and they are definitely going to have that rate cut. a big debate down here. people taking different sides of this issue. but what i can tell you for sure, the cme says there's an 82% likelihood of a rate cut at the fed's meeting july 31st. so there's at least one firm's statement but as with anything on the floor of the exchange, well, it can change. neil: and often does. gerri, thank you very much. to gerri's point, it was only last week it was virtually 100% think we had a 100% likelihood of a cut in rates in july. at least in one case down to 82%. so it gives you an idea how

quickly things can change. this is an example of that, what's going on in hong kong right now, where things turned more violent earlier today. now it's obviously a lot later there, after 1:30 in the morning so this has dissipated somewhat. earlier, it was getting kind of out of control. the china learning curve author dan joseph on what this could mean. very good to have you. this seemed to come out of the blue, but maybe educate me. what's going on? >> well, obviously this is the day that hong kong marks the turnover from british control to chinese control back in 1997. there has always been protests or at least demonstrations on this day. this year's attendance was a little higher because of the recent conflict with the government about the extradition law. then suddenly, what is normally a peaceful demonstration in hong kong became a little bit more radicalized which is unusual, but i think typifies the tone in hong kong where some people are really worried china's attempts to tighten its grip have gone

too far. neil: i remember covering that 22 years ago. i began to wonder how long is china going to put up with this separate but equal hong kong, you do your own capitalist thing, we will kind of look the other way as long as you are all good and doesn't cause any problems. 22 years, that lasted. now, is this a sign that maybe it's fraying or is this all an anomaly, cooler heads prevail, what? >> that's a good question. i think we have to keep in mind that the hong kong people actually won this most recent confrontation. they got most of what they wanted. the bill was pulled, perhaps not as permanently as they would like, and maybe the leader there, mrs. lam, has not been held accountable the way they would like but they basically won. like i said, hong kong's a prosperous state with the rule of law and a long history of peaceful demonstration. i do think cooler heads will prevail. but there's the chance they will reintroduce this. there's a chance maybe they parse a portion of the population that's been radicalized a little more. maybe this blows up into a

bigger problem for beijing. i doubt it but it could. neil: normally there's an expression if you give an inch they will take a mile. i wonder if it applies to military sites in china who worry that by suspending the extradition order that started the initial riled-up crowd, that it sets the stage for other demands protesters would have like permanently getting rid of that extradition order, like getting democratic representation on the hong kong council that essentially calls the shots in hong kong when in fact there are political operatives out of china. they want more and they demand more. where is this going? >> that's a great question. that's the calculus that the people of hong kong have to take into account. on the one hand, i commend them for defending their freedom. on the other hand, i'm not sure it makes sense to push beijing too much, to give the hard liners a reason to crack down more. i'm not sure that's in the long-term interests of hong kong. as i said, it's a fairly prosperous place. the last few years have seen an encroachment by beijing but it's still a good place to live, and

maybe drawing this line in the sand is enough. i think they have to be careful and i also think, by the way, beijing needs to not overreact, creating another problem for them on the world stage. neil: would that compel them all the more to try to score a trade deal with us or at least get that headache out of the way, because this could be a bigger one. >> i'm not sure that these two would link too much. if you think about it, we've got taiwan, the south china sea, north korea. we've got a list of issues on the foreign policy side already with beijing. i'm not sure hong kong would tip that balance that much. i'm not sure it would impact the trade talks too much. but i do think that economic conditions overall in china are pushing them towards an agreement and hopefully, that's the direction we'll move in over the next so many months. we don't have a clear road map yet. neil: thank you very, very much. very good read of the region. by the way, you probably have no big qualm with an nba player getting paid $40 million

to play basketball. even if he's not going to be playing basketball right away. so no rage there. plenty of rage when it's a ceo making that kind of money. after this. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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learn more about aarp medicare supplement plan options and rates to fit your needs. oh, and happy birthday... or retirement... in advance. neil: about $3.1 million worth of contracts in one day, think of that, in one day. kevin durant signed by the brooklyn nets. other signing deals, $170 million or more. doug eldridge on the mega-payouts stars are seeing. these are eye-popping as a conservative definition but what's going on? >> it's amazing. any way you look at it. when free agency period opened yesterday at 6:00 p.m., by midnight, nearly $2.9 billion in free agency contracts had been negotiated. to put it in context, when you go back 35 years, the 1984-85 season, the nba salary cap was

$3.6 million per team with an average salary of $340,000 a year. in 2019, the salary cap is $109 million, last year lebron made $35 million, kevin will clear over $40 million next year. any way you look at it, it does start to sound like monopoly money. neil: what's weird about it, in durant's case, help had an achilles tendon injury which will keep him out all next year. he still gets paid money next year, right? >> yes. that's correct. unfortunately, having been on the client side of achilles injuries, outside of the neck or spine injury, they are the most debilitating and difficult to return from. the key distinction i would point out here, you alluded to it in that statement, was nba contracts in general. by and large, they are guaranteed contracts. so the fact that durant is going to be on the shelf the entire 2019-2020 season, he's still going to collect 100 pennies on the dollar. by contrast, nfl contracts are not guaranteed.

that's why you often hear framing language like tom brady signed a three-year deal for $60 million with $15 million guaranteed. the last part was the caveat. it was the $15 million guaranteed. neil: why is that the case in football, not basketball? >> you know what's really interesting, it's largely discretionary. nba owners by and large have decided they are going to guarantee the contracts of their players. it's driven largely by three things. number one, the sheer numbers. the careers last longer, the injuries are fewer. nba teams have 15 guys on a roster, 13 active at once, 53 on an nfl team, et cetera. the second is that these contracts, these huge contracts, referred to as max or supermax contracts in the nba, are a percentage of the salary cap as opposed to a flat figure in the nfl. thirdly, it's the fact the nba has a soft cap, meaning there is technically a ceiling but there are a variety of scenarios where you can technically exceed that salary cap and merely incur a financial penalty, whereas the

nfl has a hard cap. when you hit the ceiling, you can't go any higher. but that does create a heck of a lot of daylight between these gargantuan nba deals and the nfl contracts we talk about. neil: what i don't understand, you are the expert, if i'm the brooklyn nets and i've got durant and he's going to be out next season but achilles tendon injuries are problematic, he might not ever be able to play. i don't know how likely that is. that's a possibility. why take the risk? >> a couple of things. number one, possibility versus probability. the probability of him never playing again, very slim. there is certainly a possibility he won't be the same player. again, that just goes to the nature of that particular injury. but it really comes down to two things. first of all, i say this tongue in cheek, he won the genetic lottery. he's 6'11" flat-footed, 7 foot in shoes, can dunk from the free-throw line and shoot throws from half court like we were directly under the hoop. he's that talented.

and point two, professional sports, especially in the construct of the nba, it really in so many ways epitomizes the notion of the free market. it's defined by supply and demand and driven by competition. kevin durant is that good and when he returns one season from now, on paper the brooklyn nets are immediately a contender coming out of the east. you just don't find it that often. neil: certainly puts fannies in the seats at the very least. >> that's the truth. neil: thank you. feel better, my friend. looks like you have a cold or allergies. hang in there. >> great to see you. neil: not an achilles tendon problem. be well. thank you, doug. aaa is predicting record holiday travel. that always happens every year, record amount. what they are warning you about as well is you are going to be looking at higher costs at the pump, having nothing to do with just the direction of oil, but the direction of texas on gas. after this. i'm really into this car,

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neil: with the price of gas up again, may be the taxes on it will rise. kristina partsinevelos has more on that. reporter: happening right before july 4th. i'm sure some people aren't happy about it. we are seeing increases across the country, starting first with california, seeing its largest increase ever for a gas tax, up 5.6 cents. then moving on to ohio, almost 11 cents higher. that's going to go towards infrastructure projects. then illinois, if you happen to live in illinois, your gas tax is going to double, up 19 cents. that's because they are specifically trying to raise money for a massive large infrastructure program. then you have two more on your screen, little more modest increases, tennessee as well as south carolina. but for all those that are listening, i'm sure you have a lot of drivers that are not

happy. we spoke to one woman who, you know, she gave her opinion. listen in. >> it's going up tomorrow. this is crazy. >> it's already high, you know. it's going up even more. reporter: it's already high, going up even more. right now if we look at the national average according to aaa it's $2.72 but we know per gallon that it's much higher in several other big cities and states. specifically, if you were at home or at work right now, wherever you are watching this show and you're thinking i'm going to be taking vacation, according to aaa, almost 48.9 million people will be taking, hitting the road, taking trains, planes and traveling over the next several days for july 4th. more specifically, on the road, and this ties in very nicely with the whole gas tax increase, we are seeing drivers hit records of almost 41.4 million drivers. these are all estimates at the moment, according to aaa. also, a massive increase in air

travel. that should go up about 5.3%, according to them, aaa, it is the largest on record thus far. be prepared, everybody. congestion, higher gas prices, but a good time hopefully with your family and friends. neil: it's really not impacting demand. we'll see. kristina, thank you very much. meanwhile, opec is agreeing now along with russia to continue these production cuts. right now, u.s. oil output is topping more than 12 million barrels per day. american gas association president on all of this. karen, this is a remarkable story in and of itself, the fact that we can weather blows from what's happening in the middle east, particularly with iran, all this other stuff, and barely blink. what's doing that? >> you know, it is amazing. as we go to celebrate the fourth of july and our nation's independence, we should be celebrating the fact we are producing more oil, more natural gas here at home, than we have ever in our history. that means that whatever's happening with things in the

middle east, venezuela, we are basically becoming much more insulated from that because of our american production. neil: so how long do you see that continuing? >> well, in the last six years, we have increased oil production 60% and that's only forecast to continue to go up. the same for natural gas, as we have our barbecues on the fourth of july, it's with american natural gas. we're not importing it from iran, or from venezuela. we are getting in our cars and using american resources. neil: you know, what's lost in a lot of this stuff when it comes to gasoline, for example, isn't so much the underlying price of gas jumping as much as it is taxes jumping. but again, no matter what's prompting it, it's not dissuading american drivers. that's remarkable in and of itself. >> well, you know, we have to remember how fortunate we are we don't live in europe right now with much higher gasoline prices, much higher natural gas prices, much higher taxes. so the underlying commodity is relatively affordable.

if california decides to raise prices on its citizens, the people in california need to speak up on what they think about that. what american production is doing for this economy is allowing it to grow, be competitive. we are importing less. we are exporting natural gas, we are exporting oil, and by the way, when we look at the situation with mr. putin, every molecule that we export of gas or oil, that's a good thing for us from a national security perspective. neil: do developments, i know it's night and day but what happens in hong kong where things turned very violent, or iran, you know, eclipsing its whole plutonium levels, does it rattle the markets like it used to? because i don't see it. >> well, the overall markets get jitery but the oil market, the natural gas market, does not. that's what's really important to understand. we are really a stabilizing factor out there in the world of oil and gas markets. that's a really important thing for the world economic outlook, for us as our country, as we continue to find ways to put

more people to work. it really is quite amazing that with everything that's going on around the world, venezuela, the middle east, russia, turmoil, we are actually somewhat stable here at home. neil: it's a nice feeling to have, because i can remember when we didn't have it. thank you very much. american gas association. >> celebrating our energy success. neil: there you go. well said. in the meantime, billionaires pledging big money to charities amid some growing attacks that they don't share enough. after this. my insurance rates are probably gonna double. but dad, you've got allstate. with accident forgiveness they guarantee your rates won't go up just because of an accident. smart kid. indeed. are you in good hands? play it cool and escape heartburn fast with new tums chewy bites cooling sensation. ♪ tum tum tum tums

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. . neil: they said tax us more. what do you think of of that? >> they trust the government more than i do. i can't tell you how much money we're given away. my foundation actually has given away over $2 billion. i would rather give it away than have some congressman give it

away. neil: that is home depot cofounder bernie marcus, along with ken langone they will give away most of their billions. ashley webster will tell what he is doing with his own billions. >> not a lot. there is not that much in there. neil: even more liberal ones are saying, i trust bill and melinda gates, warren buffett to handle this when i go than the government. >> they do. look what the government does with our money already, squanders it. never gets where it is supposed to be. these incredibly rich people create their own foundations. to your point, the bill and melinda gates foundation, given away $45 billion, generally to those groups work tock combat global poverty, save lives. god bless them. mark zuckerberg has given 100 million to schools. here is the problem. you sometimes donate to groups that want to do good, doesn't always work. the impact of that money, okay,

not what he was hoping for. certainly compared to what the government does with the money, great abyss, money goes in, disappears, you ask the whatthe heck do they do with it. neil: the question i had for bernie marcus at the time. they want to tax us more. >> write a check to the treasury. that is a great idea. fine to say that. but in reality, it sounds good. you get so much at some point you almost feel guilty about it. come on, tax me more. i would much rather money go to those causes, those groups working to do good in this world. >> they are very creative now, especially getting ready for an election year. >> yeah. neil: ways to come up with money than ways to save money. that is true of both parties, i do find here in the last two debates of the major candidate, man or woman, tax, tax. >> tax, tax. look how that worked out for states like new york,

new jersey, can connecticut. you tax, hitting those with bigger household incomes, what do they do? they move to florida, texas, tennessee, where there are lower taxes. tax-and-spend is ruinous, ruinous gameplan. it is not going to work. where does the money come from is always the big. no one can ask that. neil: you worked in tennessee market. >> 10 years. neil: they say where y'all from? >> i say from kentucky, eastern kentucky. ways. neil: halfway over the ocean. >> yeah. neil: i'm wondering where this goes. every election, the rich bamboozling us, taking advantage of everyone else, we have to level the playing field. here is bernie marcus, ken langone, here is what happens. the money dries up. money is transferable. it will go somewhere else. >> it will go somewhere else.

that is the wrong way to go about it. so many in the democratic debate, both nights, they want to take all the money from here, to stretch it out over there, doesn't work like that. why not raise everybody up to certain level rather than punishing a particular sector. neil: debt limit, got to come up with a budget, every time push comes to shove, they raise the debt ceiling, they put it off another time. >> doing that for a long time, neil. at some point you have to pay the piper. that point will come fairly soon. because it is out of control. neil: real quick. i want to get your thought on the iran situation. >> yeah. neil: they say they have not broken any uranium ceiling. >> uh-huh. neil: the fact of the matter they are on the brink of it. >> i think they are. 300 kill grams of enriched uranium, it is a plan to have europeans offset the impact of sanctions u.s. is putting on

them. let me tell you, the u.s. sanctions are killing that economy. neil: they have found a wedge with the europeans. >> if they to past this level on enriched uranium, they say they make other commitments, putting pressure on europeans. i can't see how they can go along with this, with iran basically holding them hostage. iran is desperate. this is a sign of that. neil: i'm wondering the way the president and the trip went. the fact he has signal for iran. i can negotiate with north korea, negotiate with china, join me, we'll see happy financial returns. >> not sure what will come out of tehran but never usually very good. we are the great satan after all. again, i want to come back to the sanctions, the fact we pulled out of the 2015 nuke deal. the oil sanctions and sanctions of top people in iran, they are really hurting. they're desperate right now. the europeans, they should stick to their guns, if you break the rules, sorry, no sanction relief. neil: i don't know if they will do that.

>> they tend to be a bit wobbly. neil: take it from the man from tennessee. to charles payne taking you through this hour. up 62 points. again a lot of concerns. charles. charles: a lot, thank you, neil. good afternoon, i'm charles payne, this is "making money." indices hitting all-time highs before paring those gains. this after the president, talking trump and xi promised to resume trade talks between two largest economies. one of the smartest minds on china, michael pillsbury weighs in. trump making history by stepping into north korea this weekend. what does it mean for relationships going forward there? police use tear gas on protesters in hong kong who busted into the main building. shake-up at the top, new polls show joe biden is slipping