reserve move to lower rates on this two year so we know longer have an inversion? is that what they're going too do? suite see tomorrow. stuart: 10 tomorrow morning powell speaks. you will see what he says. some of it here. connell mcshane in for neil. connell: some of it, as much as we can stand. exactly. welcome everybody to "cavuto: coast to coast". i'm connell mcshane filling in once again for neil. we have warnings there is a slowdown coming. new weakness reported in the manufacturing sector. okay, to stuart's point we had a brief return of the dreaded inverted yield curve. we're told president trump weighing options how to counter any downturn that might be coming. there is talk of apple betting big on big spending talking about from all of you. could bigger and pricier devices

from apple be on the way? new football war is kicking off. you might remember the xfl. it is coming back. the head of the football league is here with us, to tell us why this time might be different. no more he hate me kind of thing. president backing of on tax cuts. as you heard yesterday but what is the new economic plan if we have a economic slowdown? blake burman, latest, as things stand 12:01 p.m. >> connell, the general concept of the white house they're talking up the idea, at least possibility, say it is something that they have been talking about for a while, tax cuts, 2.0. we heard this a little while. tax cuts 2.0. they wanted this since they passed the first form of tax cuts president talked about, this, before the midterm election last year. there could be some sort of tax cuts 2.0. we have absolutely no idea what a tax cut 2.0 might look like.

keep in mind, the president for now at least has taken off the table the idea of a payroll tax cut, indexing capital gains. there are some still within the white house, talking to someone on the economic side of things earlier this morning, who insists that a payroll tax cut was never really a serious thing that the white house was considering. the argument though that we are hearing from this white house is, at least for the moment these sort of measures aren't necessarily needed because things are moving full steam ahead with the economy. here was the president yesterday. >> i'm not looking at a tax cut now. we don't need it. we have a strong economy. certainly a payroll tax cut. president obama did that in order to artificially jack up the economy. i'm not looking to do indexing. i've studied indexing for a long time. i think it will be perceived, if i do it, as somewhat elitist. i don't want to do that. reporter: now the president had

been supportive of indexing capital gains but that idea seems all but dead, connell, because yesterday he branded it as you heard there, something would be quote, unquote, elitist. so you got to wonder how he could potentially ever return to that idea? for now the president though continues to focus his attention on the fed, the desire of the fed, as he sees it to lower rates. this morning on twitter he has noted the spread in bond yields and the u.s. and germany. the president writing on the fed at one point, they move like quicksand. bottom of the tweet there, fight or go home. he then followed that up, another tweet by saying the question is being asked, why are we paying much more in interest than germany and certain other countries? be early for a change, not late. president continues to hit the fed, on idea of payroll tax cut. idea things are on good footing.

tax cuts 2.0, the details there, connell, few and far between where the white house could go on that front. connell: they might know they can't get it through congress. tomorrow is a big one -- go ahead, blake, i'm sorry. reporter: that's the other thing is that the house sets tax writing policy. there is a realization from folks in here that would be a very, very, big hurdle. connell: let's see how they react or president reacts to the jay powell speech tomorrow, which is maybe interesting as important as speech itself. blake burman at the white house. here we go with inverted yield curve. we had it in the news yet again, this morning only a brief time, with the two year yield on treasurys. we saw a slowdown reported in manufacturing activity that may or may not led to the market action. we have a couple market watchers to interpret it all. mark luschini joins us, sean o'hara. good to see both of you guys. mark, start with you. maybe we overdo it sometimes, not maybe, we overdo it

sometimes, instead of talking about an economy might be slowing we jump to we're headed toward recession but we do see signs. we saw it again in manufacturing today, that the economy in that particular area is slowing. we've seen business ininvestment slowing. is there a point something quote-unquote, needs to be something needs to be something done about it, tax cuts coming in what is your view something should be next? >> connell it is not our view that something needs to be done right here and now. ultimately we would like cooperation from the federal reserve, continue to see the conditions, elicit signs of slowing. the manufacturing number, pmi below 50 first time since 2009 is a bit disturbing. at the same time we got leading indicator report up half of 1% which improved on last month's number. they showed signs of growth in the economy. there are mixed messages coming. while we clearlydown shifted i

don't think we wandered into the pace of growth in our mind registering worrisome. connell: sean, everybody is all over the map on this because the signals are. you could use one argument to say, hey, we're headed down. another to say it is okay for now. "wall street journal" lead editorial this morning said to the president, hey, if you want to stimulate the economy what you need to do is make some sort of a trade deal. quit the threats of tariffs on europe and some of our allies, make at least a small deal with china that would be the best stimulus. what do you think? >> i'm not sure that would be the best stimulus. that would make, i feel like that would make the stock market go up, which would make all of us feel a lot better. connell: right. >> if you think about it, i read three articles one was on target an lowe's, blow out earnings. that was not sign of recession. refinance something causing spur in home sales, low interest rates are causing a spur in home sales. the third article, airlines are bracing for some of the biggest labor day traffic that they have ever seen.

so all these things to me, don't sound like we're having recession. the stimulus in the economy today, is wage growth, plus, low interest rates, plus massively high employment in the united states. then on top of that, low inflation, and productivity gains. connell: right. >> so we can look at one thing like the yield curve which everybody has been talking about all week but have to look at the overall picture to get a sense what's going on. connell: the fed is doing that. both you quick which weigh in. if that is the case, if we're kind of okay for now, why do we keep cutting rates? is it as simple as we need to catch up to the rest of the world? is that an argument in your view? >> i think that is what is driving rates down, we're out there amongst developed nations with highest rates. we're paying more for a 10-year government security in the united states than italy is. that is causing money to flood into the securities. that is problematic for whole

different set of reasons. for no other reason to move our interest rates back down to where rest of the world is for a while is probably the reason they need to seriously look lowering rates. connell: do you agree, mark? >> i'm not so sure that is necessary at this juncture. in fact we had three federal reserve officials today come out to say they're not quite reaped to make that adjustment as of yet. the fact of the matter is, germany's growth rate contracted in the second quarter. it is high class problem that our interest rates are stronger than germany, that indicates our economy is much stronger than germany. they are vigilant but i don't think it justifies where the market expectations are the kind of cuts necessary to too to, reflate u.s. economic activity. connell: one of those officials, esther george you will here on the show next 10, 15 minutes. good to see both of you. thanks for coming on. there is always talk of fear or recession or slow down the other

thing growing is the deficit. we haven't talked enough about this. it came out from the congressional budget office. if that report from the cbo is right the united states is phasing trillion dollar deficit next year. what kind of ammo do we really have if the economy turns south? committee for responsible federal budget president maya macguineas you have been talking about if few others have for a long time, right? >> i have. it is become the forgotten issue of this political environment. i think the potential death threat we're face something both a problem in of itself and it exsasster bates what you were talking about. if and when we go into recession, you have two major tool boxes, monetary policy, fiscal policy. when we open up those tool boxes, both are severely depleted because we have not gotten this debt situation under control. it will not be as effective help compensate for the fact that rates are quite low.

this is a problem absolutely focusing on short-term political games and neglecting the sustained health of the economy and like this report pointed out yesterday, trillion dollars deficits on the horizon. growing interest payments despite low rates. and a real lack of political leadership on this issue. connell: what do you say to those who argue, there are many of them out there, respected officials in, economics and markets, and government say it has changed, it is different now? deficits don't necessarily matter as much as they do? i heard something this morning where the argument was made you can continue along this path of deficit spending with low rates, because you know not only here in the u.s. but elsewhere, central banks now maybe like they haven't in the past really, quote, unquote, have your back? they will be there to back you up? that we can sustain this? what do you say to people that make that argument? >> so the first thing would i say, look at whether those people make it when both political parties are in power? a lot of times these arguments

are politically motivated. put that aside. there is a real economic shift. that interest rates are much lower when we thought they would have been when deficits an debt are this high. that is result of number of things. result of globalization, excess savings. the result of policies central banks are engaged in with quantitative easing. and productivity and growth rates and big challenges demographics show. the fact that rates stayed low we haven't had pressure from interest rates, look that as opportunity to get our fiscal house in order, not as an invitation to keep borrowing. connell: how many people look at it, right? >> yeah. connell: the pressure is not there. if rates are shooting up everybody would be talking about. >> if you have a political system that only acts once a crisis is happening then we're in trouble as a country. we need to get ahead of this. connell: thank you, maya. on a issue few others seem to be talking about. talking about adding to the

debt and deficits bernie sanders unveiling a climate plan that mirrors the green new deal. the prize tag on it is crazy which we'll talk about a moment, taxpayers any of this were to go into place would be getting a raw deal. don't miss "after the bell" 4:00 p.m. eastern with the markets up and down. we're back up by the way by 50 points on the dow after the brief inversion earlier. the decline in markets. we'll see where we go from here. we'll come back, keep talking about it. "cavuto: coast to coast" in a moment. ♪

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february of the 737 max. the jet has been so much under scrutiny is approved to fly in the fourth quarter of year. $12 gain of boeing stock. 3 1/2%. the dow being down, inverted yield curve, the dow would still be down if it weren't for boeing. it is good for 80 dow points, in 58, almost 60 point gain. give or take. let's get to the bernie sanders plan. he is looking to spend a lot of green. senator from vermont once again running for president, revealing a 16 trillion-dollar climate change plan. it includes research and development. a complete ban on fracking, and fossil fuel imports. exports. i was reading over a trillion dollars in there for workers, in industries like yours where they would quote, receive strong benefits a living wage, training and job placement. the reason that is in there, try

to put people in those industries basically out of business with this? >> well, the people in our industry already have those benefits. good-paying jobs, great benefits, job security. i think any, there is a lot of rhetoric out there. this is political season. you know one needs to recognize that 178 million americans every day use natural gas either at home or their place of work? so that is more people than voted for hillary clinton and donald trump combined. so they're going to be looking for answers. if you're going to take away my natural gas, what will you replace it with, how affordable will it be? connell: the other thing about this plan, i pause, 16 trillion. just about anybody that reads on either side of the aisle if they're being honest, it is never actually going to happen, you know, but the idea, does that matter in the conversation, in idea that is talked about? can you dismiss this type of talk? or does it, you know, because something, something quite not as bad from your point of view

might happen does that make it more important to you? how do you look at it? >> first i look at a 16 trillion-dollar bill, he says public funding, that actually means taxpayer funding. it is coming from somewhere. the reality is, we have really affordable energy. natural gas is saving customers about $875 a year rather than replacing it with an electric stove or electric source of meet heating. we're talking about raising utility rates on voters. that is never very popular. and there is also the practical reality, how fast can we do this? the reality is, again, we're reducing emissions because of natural gas. so getting rid of what is lowering emissions, keeping energy affordable, what is making our economy competitive to your point on the earlier segment you had, that doesn't make any economic sense, oh, by the way, we're shipping it around the world. evidently mr. sanders is not for that. when we do that, we supply our allies with american gas rather than russian gas.

that seems to reduce mr. putin's market share. i like that. connell: that is the whole idea in the industry, we're becoming energy independent. it is national security issue that helps the country. for a final question, even if something like this extreme will probably not happen, what type of adjustment or companies in the industry making now to get ready for the movement in that direction and how much is it raising costs? how much making the job more difficult on the cost side? >> our industry is committed to reducing emissions. they put four million dollars every day into energy efficiency. they're putting their money where their mouth is. they're innovating. developing new technologies. we're saving money. we're bullish about the future of natural gas. connell: karen, thanks for coming on responding to the plan. fed, big time focus ahead of jay powell speech coming up tomorrow, but today we speak to a key fed player. dow back up 60 points.

connell: breaking corporate news on patrick byrne overstock ceo, controversial over the years, over making comments about the so-called deep state. he said he was involved the government was doing in the election, romantically he claimed to be involved with the russian operative butina. he made those deep state comments. he was controversial about the comments on short sellers. he hung in there as ceo of overstock.com but we're learning patrick byrne is stepping down. i'm sure more to come. central bankers beginning two-day meeting in jackson hole with the jay powell speech tomorrow. before that edward lawrence sat down with kansas city fed president esther george. edward? reporter: the interview now out of embargo.

we can talk about it. federal reserve president from kansas city es they are forge does somebody esther george does not see recession. that is the reason she tells me she voted against a rate cut in july and hinted she may do the same if it comes up again in september. do you feel the accommodation is needed forward? the market is baking in some help? >> as i look at it, we're going to get a number of data releases between now and the tile of our next meeting and i want to take all that information in i think that is really important to understand how those will influence our conversation at the september meeting. to be honest, i always want to keep my options open as i listen to my colleagues around that table, how they're ceiling things. reporter: briefly inverted yield curve is that a red flag for you? some people say recession 18 months down the road? >> the history of that, there is

a lot of talk about the inverted yield curve. it is certainly one of the data points i watch carefully but again with any piece of data you are trying to understand what is driving that. i think there could be reasons the yield curve is looking the way it does that may not point directly to a weaker u.s. economy. reporter: could that be a global slowdown, negative interest rates in other countries driving money in here? >> i think so. as you look at diversion in interest rates, the rest of the globe slowing the way it is, i think that has a lot to do what we're seeing on longer-term rates. reporter: the president is vocal. do you think he is maybe going door far voicing his concern or? >> i deal with people every day that express concerns and, again, you have to stay focus what is your job is. our job to think about the real economy, people in the economy and to be completely accountable and as transparent as we can be and i think that is our focus.

reporter: george goes on to say that the federal reserve as a little of independence that allows them to maintain their focus on their mandate. she also says she believes the economy will continue to expand. she counts gdp growth somewhere around 2% by the end of the year when all said and done. back to you. connell: a good interview. edward lawrence in jackson hole. a lot to talk about with charles payne here in the studio. the host of "making money," a fine one after this program. we knew george was a dissenter, what do you make of that argument she just made here why we might necessarily need to cut rates so aggressively? >> she is looking at some of the strong aspects of this economy con and can't argue certainly with the strength of the consumer. we've been reminded so much last two weeks with retail sales, walmart earnings, this week with home depot lowe's, target

surging 23% alone. there is a lot of elements to the economy and global economy. think about today's session, connell. we were sort of flattish. then the ecb minutes came out. connell: right. >> they're talking about rate cuts, asset purchases. they're saying we're going full-blown, next time we get together. mario draghi's farewell will be an amazing amount of accommodation to go along with the rest of the world. 17 trillion in negative yielding bond yields which is why perhaps the inverted yield curve is different this time. so they have got a lot on their plate. i thought what she said, most interesting thing, stay focused on your job. despite criticism from president trump. the stock market, not vocal but reacts with selling. connell: right. >> nothing has pushed around the fed like wall street has over the years. even that 800 point plunge last yesterday was an attempt to push around the fed. connell: what about the bond market though? >> that is what i'm saying. the 800 point inversion reaction -- >> from the bond market to the stock market. i get it.

why if, there is this question, right, how do you play both sides of this? if the case, the reason that the bond yields are going down, the curve gets inverted from time to time, we're the best the bunch, money coming in here. at the same time why do you need people, people say why do you need to cut rates so aggressively. you need to be as low as rest of the world? do you believe in that. >> if our stocks start to wobble because they can't make any money, particularly the large multinationals they can't make money because the market goes down and earnings come up short that will impact consumer psyche. here is my argument, the fed made it few times there year, but stopped making it, the inability to arrest deflation is what is going on. connell: people said they were all over the map on the board of directors but people want to cut half-point, that is basically what they said. >> think about this week, what did lowe's say the home depot say the day before, lumber

deflation. think about this, connell, steel prices. tariffs told us steel prices would go through the roof. connell: right. >> last july, still, per net ton was $900. this july? $501. connell: right. >> that is not going through the roof. connell: there is demand there. >> that is deflationary death spiral. bernanke wrote a piece in 2002 that everyone should read and he talked about the dangers of deflation. the inability of the fed to take control of it once it starts to spiral out of controllers much more dangerous -- >> much more dangerous. think about the great depression. connell: right. >> that was deflationary death spiral. so you must get ahead of this. you can't wait. esther george can't wait for the data to confirm we're in deflationary death spiral because it would be too late. connell: the other thing in the near term, we do that, we get ahead, cut, catch up or get close to the rest of the world but none of it really works. the global slowdown continues. maybe we don't end up in

recession or end up in a slowdown, something close to recession sometime in the future. people say what do you do? you have no ammo left. what do you say to that argument? >> the fed also said this year on more than one occasion, more than one fed official, said so-called unconventional tools will be quote, unquote, conventional tools. they have opened up a new paradigm on things that they can do and experiments they will make. in fact the reason i bought up ecb, they will buy more assets but there is talk of them buying equities. the bank of japan buys stocks via etfs. they happen to be largest shareholders of many japanese stocks already. there sun limited areas they can go to but the fed is afraid. they are worried that they have not been able to get inflation up after all these years of quote, unquote, accommodation. connell: right. >> so it's a real issue for them. i think they are, the conundrum -- connell: real quick, then we got to go. >> stay focused on your job. i don't think powell has done that through his actions but

messaging as been awful. it hurt the market. connell: in a moment we'll talk about apple getting set to roll out a new line of products amid reports that the next line could be bigger and much more expensive, believe it or not than the old ones. we'll be right back. announcer: only fidelity offers four zero expense ratio index funds directly to investors. and we have zero account fees for brokerage accounts. at fidelity those zeros really add up. ♪ maybe i'll win ♪ saved by zero why accept it frompt an incompyour allergy pills?e else. flonase sensimist. nothing stronger. nothing gentler. nothing lasts longer. flonase sensimist. 24 hour non-drowsy allergy relief

connell: we've been talking so much, especially this week about the american consumer. the signs of strength that we continue to see. couple more examples for gerri willis to talk about at the new york stock exchange. gerry?

>> that's right, connell. the dow up fraction al i. nordstrom continues to store after the company announce the earnings last night that beat expectations. sales disappointed. dick's sporting good up higher after company reported better earnings, same-store sales rose first time in two years. other retailers doing well, ross stores, wholesaler, videogame retailer. gamestop after attracting a investment from a hedge fund manager, he beat the market betting against subprime mortgages before the financial crisis, look at impact, amazing. a report from bloomberg, apple is updating, improving some existing products. along with launching three new iphones next month, it will release a combination of new hardware, software and services. in time for the holiday. upgrades include a new pro iphone with a new camera system

for better ultrawide angle photos. the company hopes the new technology will boost the end of year revenue which took a hit last year. shares of apple up, i believe are up, no they are down on this news much amazing. connell, back to you. connell: gerri, thank you. now to politics. the governor of the state of washington, jay inslee, still wants to be the governor of state of washington. he is dropping out of the 2020 presidential race. that is one of the new pieces of information on the democratic side. voters still divided on democratic field that still has 21 declared, so-called major candidates. we have them on the screen there, give you a second, to look at all faces. fox news decision desk director all over this. he joins us now. such an important person on election night. i thought you slept for four years. >> i wish. connell: great to see you. >> great to see you. connell: trying to figure out when the field gets down to quote, manageable level. we have a ways to go.

>> we have a ways to go. the question what is manageable means to whom. connell: yeah. >> if you're joe biden, more herrerry. the more the field is confused more a lot of people getting 1%, more focus on him and better for him. connell: you think, obviously idealogically and numbers ever field trump 2016, biden could lead wire-to-wire, many people doubted donald trump could do so in a larger field? >> very possible it will be like 2016 where the race doesn't really solidify. one of the benefits trump had in 2016 was again, there were a whole bunch of more mainstream candidates. they kept fighting each other, they wouldn't give up. as a result, trump kept his support within that team. connell: we're flashing some numbers from our fine polling unit here at fox on the screen as you speak. i'm always curious about, talking about data, trying to interpret it. i'm always curious in point in a cycle what numbers mean. biden is up double digits.

trump is losing to five or six of top democratic candidates. obviously trump reporters say nonsense. see, that means we're going to win. what do they tell you no? >> i think you have to look at different components of the field of the numbers. would i argue this is a snapshot in time. this can change. the number i focus on, what is incumbent getting. right now trump is below 40% i think is a challenge for him. connell: what would he need to, what is the lowest number -- >> he has to get to the mid 40s. connell: okay. >> other thing trump complained about the poll. i think the poll is quite accurate. arguably in a great place for him. best thing for trump, if opponents are complacent. we know his side will never be complacent. they're enthusiastic supporters of his. they may not be a large number. they are enthusiastic. they will come out. arguably he is better off than people think. connell: he was last time. >> exactly. connell: many people thought this time would be different there is so much anger at the

president among democrats, especially on the left side of the democratic party, really the whole democratic party they would never have an energy problem but you're saying they might? >> they could. the other thing is, if everyone in the democratic side thinks it will be easy race against donald trump, it is easier for them to nominate their passion which is to nominate someone further from the left, who arguably is going to be a convenient target for donald trump. connell: i thought you wrote a very interesting piece recently where, because there is a split what is the best strategy going forward for democrats from their point of view. how should they go after the president? some should hope for a recession, been criticized saying some of them are doing that. others say, just attack the president, which is sort of what i think you're subscribing to from the democratic point of view on his character. go full in, say he is a bad person. even say he is a racist that might work politically, not backfiring? >> i think that works extremely well amongst democrats. there is no thing you can say

negative about donald trump that will not, is not red meat for the democratic party. connell: what about the swing voters? >> that is a more complicated question. a lot of them don't feel negatively about trump as the radical democrats feel. connell: right. >> on the other hand the question i have is, how quickly can you move to the middle, stop attacking him once you gotten the nomination? connell: right. >> that will be a interesting challenge. why the election will be fascinating. connell: the last one i think we can use the word fascinating. this one has got components as well. that person that donald trump has created, he says it is a guy that he is known for years. i say created because it seems to change at rallies. i'm not sure if it's a real person. i'm not sure that is matters. i know a guy for years he doesn't like me, he hates me, but he knows i make him money. that is a composite character could be a big decider in this election, especially depending on how the economy turns. a bunch of people don't love the

president but could vote for i am easily? >> if economy stays strong, there are a bunch people who are not happy with his personality. he is a jerk, but the jerk that fights for me. connell: exactly. want to say anything about the fine polling unit at fox? >> i think it's a great polling unit. connell: they have done good number, respected all over the place. thank you, arnen. in a moment the president of the xfl is here. we had you worried for a moment. you remember the xfl, he hate me and stuff? this is different. big announcement in the world of football. the business of sports when we come back. no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call, we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99.

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connell: a little sport talk. the xfl. it is gearing up for another season. will play in 2020. you look at eight revealed new xfl. president of the league and coo.

jeffrey pollak. that is big announcement when you do that. >> thanks for having me. we revealed the logos, team identities yesterday. pretty good response. we're excited because now our teams have a little more sense of concreteness. we're looking forward to getting started. connell: i want to talk about this. so everybody, that does remember the league knows it was associated with profession wrestling, vince mcmahon being the owner of the wwe. i mentioned he hate me, nicknames on back of jersey. that was last time, right? it doesn't work out. but you're trying to it again. from an economic point ever view, why will it work this time? what is different? >> that was last time. that is a long time ago. we still benefit from the vision of vince mcmahon. this time the approach is really different. we're about two things, football and fun. we have an outstanding commissioner in the form of oliver luck who is taking a fresh look at the game. we'll reimagine a little bit. connell: what does that mean?

different rules? >> some different rules. football is the most popular sport in the country. it doesn't need any fixing. it's a great game. we'll embellish it a little bit. connell: what does that mean? is it going to be for a lack of better way phrasing it more or less violent than the current nfl, which is going to for obvious reasons protect its players? what will you do? >> we're focused on up tempo, player safety is important to us, but our focus is making sure we have a product that is fun, fast, compelling for our fans. connell: for a football fan, a lot of our viewers are fat ball fans. how do you do that, how do you make the game faster? one example? >> shorten time from the huddle back to playing. that is one example. connell: shorter play clock? >> we have not announced anything formally yet. stay tuned. you should look for innovations result in more of an up tempo game. connell: we'll put you on record for shorter play clock.

just kidding that kind of thing. the other thing is intriguing we look at all kinds of people running businesses, if you look at the big sports leagues they have owners made a ton of money. in the current nfl, jerry jones, all the mara family, the tisch family in new york. your league is different, you own, the league does all the teams. what they call single entity league. how does that change things? does it give you more control? why do it that way? >> i think it streamlines our operation operations. it allows better sharing of best practices. results us being nimble. when we revealed the logos yesterday. the league came together, decided what it was we were going to present for each team. we did that from a centralized standpoint. essentially rolled it out into the regional offices if you will. we think that that model is going to enable us to just

operate a little more efficiently, a little quicker. connell: does it allow you pay the players more or less? what is the average salary, highest salary? landry jones, used to play from oklahoma. one guy i heard. what will players get paid? >> stay tuned on that. we haven't revealed anything formally yet. connell: meaning salaries? >> meaning salaries. connell: anything more than million dollars a year? >> it will be less than that. connell: do you think you can attract enough talent to make it attractive? >> there are a lot of football players out there who don't play in other professional leagues. we think we will be a nice opportunity for them. connell: we'll be watching. come back when it starts next spring. >> i would love to. come to the home opener in new york. connell: we'll talk about year two if one goes all right. >> we will have year two. connell: jeffrey pollak. the xfl is back. that is interesting to talk about. we'll get back to business so to speak in a moment of the trump administration is said to be putting final touches on designs for fannie and freddie, the mortgage giants.

charlie gasparino has the new and exclusive details on this story after a quick break. ♪ ♪ ♪ introducing the all-new chevy silverado. with fifty industry-firsts. it's the strongest, most advanced silverado ever.

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connell: now to the fannie and freddie story. with the treasury department putting the final touches on its plan for the mortgage giants freddie mac and fannie mae. charlie gasparino has been all over the story. >> we broke the story yesterday, you read "the wall street journal" they discovered it. we were like hours ahead of them. half hour, 45 minutes ahead of bloomberg. they all ripped off little old fox business which is, i guess, they say imitation and flattery. connell: that is the highest form they tell me. >> the stock did spike on report. it is up obviously today.

i will say one thing, we don't know exactly what is in the report. the report will address recapitalization of fannie mae. it will address from what i understand, release of fannie mae and freddie mac under government control it has been under the financial crisis, because the government took them over when they were headed for insolvency. they were government-sponsored enterprises. they were created by government. they became public companies. there is always implicit guarranty on stock. connell: it goes back to the future type of thing or what? >> we don't know. connell: okay. >> here is what i say about people buying stock and speculating, be really careful. first off, recapitalization if you do as mark calabra, the head of fhfa which has to carry out the treasury plan could totally dilute common shareholders. they're buying it now. the stock is worth $2 a share. it could be preferred shareholders down the road. we don't know. and we don't know timing this is the interesting thing will the trump administration call for radical overhaul of fannie and

freddie, including ending what is known as net worth sweep. that the government takes profits from fannie and freddie. they are profitable. now that the financial crisis is 11 years over. they are profitable. will they ended sweep, recapitalize fannie and freddie, when the trump administration as you know is running trillion dollar deficits? connell: right. >> now that money is, like i don't know what they get, five billion dollars from them but every billion counts. connell: your point, so many little details here, one little thing if you're investor or speculator could throw you off? >> here is the thing that is really interesting. are they going to do something radical in an election year? think about, you start tinkering around with fannie and freddie, administration comes out says we want to privatize them, be less depend pent on government. that increases borrowing costs, increase borrowing costs sees

some activities. banks make less 30 year loans. that is not good in election year. that is what they do, fannie and freddie buy loans from banks. banks will not make 30 year mortgages. would you want to take risk for 30 years on average guy? they buy it off the balance sheet, they don't have a problem. connell: breaking story within last hour or so -- >> did i tell you we broke the fannie and freddie story. connell: you were ahead of the journal? >> bloomberg? >> i forgot the beginning of the segment already. you know patrick byrne, right? pat trek byrne from overstock is controversy you'll guy for years for number of different reasons. he is out. >> i like patrick personally. i have known him for years. i have known him boeing toe-to-toe with short sellers during the financial crisis. i remember when i was at cnbc. you know i will withhold comment on this story. i know what his nominal, sort of

explanation for leaving is. he is involved in some sort of deep state process. connell: claimed he had a maria butina relationship. then he stayed after that. now he is getting out. >> he might v i think it is deeper. we're going to have to see. we'll let the dust settle on this company. where is the stock? connell: it is up today. just had it, flash up overstock again, guys, if you can. >> is it -- connell: 20.88. >> 20.88 it is up on him leaving. you know, this is a company that, went through all sorts of machinations. they were involved in crypto, the whole thing. connell: yep. >> so we're going to have to see what's going on here from an accounting standpoint and from other standpoint. connell: charlie, thank you. we do know patrick byrne is leaving. he is resigning. recession fears apparently out there for some folks at least. that brings us to the argument, what do we need to do if anything? tax cuts, more aggressive rate

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connell: more calls to cut rates and to cut taxes. all this amid some new signs today a slowdown might be coming. we've had weakness in manufacturing and we have it back, the yield curve inversion reappeared earlier today. so how about this idea that it's '07 all over again? maybe not quite that. risky borrowing, though, is back to some degree, but we might not be on the brink of another crisis, so that's the obvious good news. we will explain that. the g7, leaders are gearing up for the meeting as the new threat looms over the economy. another busy hour of "coast to coast" starts right now.

connell: welcome back. i'm connell mcshane filling in for neil cavuto. we get into these recession fears that are growing on some circles behind the scenes, the white house said to be looking at options that might prop up the economy if things do turn south. our panel's here for the next hour. will rind is here along with bill mcgurn and jessica tarolov. welcome, all, and thanks for helping us through the hour. will, where do you stand on things? there's this big debate, even the president flip-flopped on what we should do about the economy, on where we are right now. where are we? >> things are definitely slowing down. i think that's now kind of without any kind of doubt. the question is what to do about it. we talked about or the president has talked about tax cuts. i'm not sure that's going to be something that's going to stick, especially when we've got a deficit that's going to be forecast to a trillion dollars next year. connell: the thing nobody talks about. >> exactly.

connell: deficits and debt that keep growing. >> doesn't seem there's too much appetite to cut taxes at this point given the size of the deficit. connell: and the politics. trying to get a tax cut through, right? >> i don't think a democratic house is going to give donald trump tax cuts that he can campaign on in 2020. i just don't think it's happening. connell: jessica might disagree with that. they have no problem passing a big tax cut bill, right, if trump came to them and said let's index capital gains to inflation, cut the payroll tax, no problem? >> yeah. when hell freezes over, or whatever is going on. the tax cuts aren't happening as you mentioned. there has been a flip-flop on it. there was talk of the payroll tax, then yesterday when he was freestyling for about 40 minutes about letting russia back in the g7 and whatever else he was saying, he mentioned that isn't going to happen. connell: i'm sure you think the economy's slowing, right? >> i do. connell: what should we do about it if not cut taxes? what should we do about a slow economy? what would be a better idea? >> hm, what would be a better idea. connell: you know, the reason, i guess the reason i ask, we can

talk about it, is because people on your side of the aisle, the democrats have been accused of saying all they want is for the economy to actually slow, to go into recession -- >> no, well, i don't think that's fair. the candidates that are on the trail right now, none of them echo what bill maher is talking about. i don't think any of us would want that. there are plenty of people living paycheck to paycheck who certainly could not live with a recession or it would be much harder. democrats are talking about the reversing the tax cuts that went through that benefited people at the top that would infuse more money into the economy, into the coffers, government coffers, to be better distributed. so that is one place we could start with this. we are going to talk later about bernie sanders' green plan. connell: speaking of debt and deficits. >> yes, but also speaking of more green jobs and not necessarily advocating for his policy, but to have a better kind of plan would certainly be an infusion into the economy and looking at just reforms across the board. connell: we will talk about that.

we will get into bernie sanders later. bill, let me talk about the "journal." the editorial page this morning with its lead editorial which makes the suggestion you want to help the economy, let's get going on trade, not just cut a deal with china, but take all the uncertainty out, forget the auto tariff threats, the steel and aluminum tariffs, that that's something he can actually control. i don't know if he will move in that direction. >> look, we are people who believe the first part of what donald trump did, cutting taxes and deregulating a big part of it really did unleash the economy in a lot of ways. what the markets hate most is uncertainty and the trade deal with china is the biggest uncertainty. i lived in hong kong for ten years. china needs a punch in the nose. china cheats at a lot of stuff. but tariffs are not really the way to do it. one way to do it that donald trump could do is i think revive the trans-pacific partnership. get other people to join with you to have a freer and fairer, more open system.

connell: you have a new name for that? >> tpp isn't happening. >> it is -- the same goes for britain, with britain leaving brexit, i long thought what the president should do is put a free trade deal on the table where we treat british goods exactly the same as they treat ours, then say it's available to anyone who wants it. that's a way to put pressure on people's bad behavior without harming yourself. connell: it's a good point. we talk all the time about giving, you know, whether we should give in or cut a deal with china. but if you just, even if it wasn't called tpp or wasn't an exact agreement like that, if you had everybody else lined up against china, and you weren't threatening them with tariffs and maybe you start with boris johnson, would that help financial markets, risk assets and all the rest? >> i don't think it would hurt them. i think it's got to be positive and just, you know, we don't know obviously how positive it would be, but i think that could

only be helpful to the situation. connell: you think we need to do more? >> yeah. connell: so it's got to be, that goes back to the fed, then. is the fed controlling this whole thing, all these moot point conversations, talking about whether we will cut taxes or cut a deal on trade which may or may not happen? is it all about the fed? >> that's probably the biggest factor at the moment in terms of markets, specifically. so what the president has been advocating for in terms of lower interest rates from the fed, that's certainly one policy weapon that they have. this is a playbook we have seen many many times before including after the financial crisis. i think as bill was saying, also, you can look to further deregulation, you can look to the public infrastructure or public spending plan that we've talked about but haven't really gotten under way. connell: how real is the slowdown? bill, what do you think? >> i think the slowdown is real. i'm not sure you can go from the slowdown to predictions of imminent doom and gloom. i think there's been some

slowdown in investment and exports. look, markets hate uncertainty. one of the things about tariffs is a lot of people in the united states sell products that are made in china so there's huge supply chains. it's a very complex thing. when you put question marks, someone can move their plant to, say, vietnam but that's a huge expense. but if it fluctuates you don't know whether the tariffs will stay or be gone. 's the ve it's very hard to make efficient business decisions in that kind of environment which is why markets sometimes hate uncertainty more than they hate something bad, something bad that's clear. they can factor it in. but if they think the pieces are going to be moved every other day and you saw that with the president previously, different comments on china trade, whether he says we can reach a deal or not reach a deal, it sends the markets into tizzies. connell: there's a great story in the "journal" on that topic,

because if you want to understand how these things really work, to bill's point, if you are a company and will move to vietnam or cambodia or wherever, you know, you are very small you could do it tomorrow but if you are a big company -- >> take a lot of planning. connell: it's expensive, then the other thing in the story is that when they go to vietnam now, say for example, they are having trouble finding workers. vietnam is a small country compared to china. >> infrastructure as well. again, we are talking about huge multinational global corporations that are for the most part, u.s. companies, they are applying whatever goods and services to u.s. standards and regulations and that's not something every country can fulfill or has the infrastructure or technology to support. connell: it's kind of an argument for a pause in the whole idea. i don't know if you agree with this but if you say the goal is to get after china and that's a noble goal and they are cheating and stealing, that maybe we should acknowledge that it takes awhile for everybody to adjust to this, let's kind of pause and say that we'll agree to

something small, then after the 2020 election we take it up again. i don't know how the democrats would react on their side. >> a lot of democrats have been enthusiastic actually about president trump in theory taking on china. it's something chuck schumer has talked about for a long time. it's rare we get bipartisan agreement but everyone does think china is obviously gaming us, particularly concerned about intellectual property, and you saw a lot of agreement certainly around the initial sanctioning of huawei which went away pretty quickly there. going back to what bill was talking about, about the tariffs, i'm only going about the recession reports that i have read, morgan stanley, goldman sachs putting the likelihood about 30%, 33%. the cbo released their report saying the average american household was losing $580 per annum as a result of the tariffs. i believe morgan stanley's report even got up to $1,000. connell: the point about odds, the cbo did not predict a recession, just slowdown. slower growth. >> right, but still a tax on americans. the administration has been making the argument over and over, larry kudlow, peter navarro, that this is not

hurting americans. all the data shows that it is. connell: he stopped saying that suddenly, stopped saying china will pay the tariffs, started saying a little bit that you know what, it might hurt short-term but forget it, it's worth it. >> he said that to the farmers, he said that from the get-go, they're with me, they know this is a long-term play, it will hurt up front, but. >> the president gives contradictory statements on trade. sometimes he says -- connell: he does? >> -- all i want is for other countries to treat us the same as we treat them. but sometimes he gives the sense that he wants to reshape the american economy, to we want to promote manufacturing and rig the system in a way to protect our manufacturers so he gives different signals on this. the fundamental problem in all of this is countries often cheat and do things that are wrong. no one has found a way to punish those countries through

government action without exacting often a higher cost on yourself. remember, president bush, whom i worked for, put in steel tariffs and had to withdraw them because hundreds of thousands of jobs were put at risk of people who use steel. connell: there was just an example of a steel maker that was opening a new plant in -- i can't remember if it was pennsylvania or ohio, right on the border there, and they had supported the president's tariffs on steel. now they are suing the commerce department because they didn't get the exemption they said they needed to get some steel from india and mexico. connell: it's complicated. jessica did a great tease earlier, telling everybody we would talk about bernie sanders. >> always working for you. connell: which we are going to do in just a moment. he's unveiled the most expensive proposal i believe of 2020 yet. the price tag on this bernie sanders' green new deal and all the rest. we will talk about that next and whether, how the other democrats respond to any of that. that's coming up.

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connell: now to this bernie sanders plan. $16 trillion on climate includes research and development investment, really big, climate change would be declared as a national emergency as part of the plan, fracking just banned, fossil fuel imports and exports as well. it comes as three california cities are joining berkeley trying to ban natural gas. so is the tide turning against the traditional american energy industry?

phil flynn joins us on that. guy knows a lot about the energy industry. first on the bernie sanders thing, the idea is basically to put the guys that have worked in the business you've been involved with for years, just kind of put them out of business, right? >> it really is, you know. in fact, right now, the amount of jobs they're claiming they're going to create 20 million jobs, would be almost three times the amount of jobs we have in the energy industry today. the problem is that tells me that the proposal isn't going to be very efficient. it means it's probably going to cost three times as much to actually come into fruition. the costs on this program is actually about, you know, we spend about $1 trillion on energy this year in traditional energy. this is going to be 16 times that cost. so even though it seems like, it sounds like a great idea, the cost of this plan is really going to give a major hit to the u.s. economy and when we look at the benefits to the environment, i'm not seeing it in this program at all. in fact, i think this is going to be a net negative to the

environment from what m rei'm reading. connell: we will get the panel in on this in a moment but one other question or story for you. we saw president trump going after the auto industry, the executives there, for that emissions deal and kind of the split with california. what do you make of what's going on in the auto industry? >> you know, i think donald trump was trying to help the energy industry and basically saying hey, you know, some of the rules that the obama administration put in place are not realistic, it's not going to have a major impact on the environment so why are we allowing our industry to shoot ourselves in the butt. i think that was what president trump was doing. then he felt blindsided by these four or five car companies that made a deal with california to supposedly get 50 mile an hour cars by 2020 i think it was. but if you look at the actual deal that california signed, it wasn't mandated by law, you know, it's based on, you know, best efforts basis. i think the auto companies are saying sure, we'll go ahead and

do that, it's not like you enforce your laws now, why would you enforce a non-enforceable agreement. i think they just did it to make the governor of california happy. connell: the governor, gavin newsom of california, that is a very big state so this goes back i think a little to the uncertainty versus certainty comment we made earlier with regard to the economy, that if you think eventually the whole country is going to go back to what california is proposing, you make cars in two different fashions. >> the auto makers just want to make their cars and have to adjust to the markets. i'm not sure they like this -- i know people in california complain about the price of gas all the time. i think these proposals like bernie sanders' are just in-kind contributions to donald trump. if you remember hillary clint clinton's book, "what happened" she said we are going to put a lot of coal miners out of business. i don't think a single person fracking or whatever is going to believe i'm going to get a smart

new green job that's going to lead me in the same place. i sdwrouvejust don't think peop believe that. connell: how do you see the politics of this? this is far out there and maybe other democrats have to get as far to the left on these issues as they can even if it has absolutely zero chance of actually happening as constructed. it's more, i think someone described it as a vision statement. is it the kind of vision that can lose you an election? >> for bernie sanders, absolutely. but he is in second or third place depending what poll you're looking at. the person who has the most moderate climate vision, joe biden, is 10, 15 points ahead here. you know, i'm happy to see that conversations or the litmus test of the green new deal have kind of shifted away and at least the individual candidates are releasing their own plans. what bernie sanders is doing and the timing here, i believe, to be specific, jay inslee dropped out of the race last night. connell: it was his issue. >> his issue. what it did, though, he didn't catch fire and i think that that

proves we don't have one issue voting bloc here. so the environment is hugely important to democrats but health care is going to be more important, the economy, immigration. but we need to be having this conversation. it is important to democrat voters that we are acknowledging climate change, obviously, and the role that we as humans are playing in this. connell: go ahead. sorry to cut you off. >> i just wanted to say i don't think the feasibility of the plan being implemented or the price tag is an issue for democratic voters. connell: phil flynn, i started with this, you worked in the industry forever, i would think the workers in this industry, some of them at least are swing voters, some of them are people that could have an impact, right, on the election? texas or wherever it is. some of them might, right? >> they do. they have a big impact on voters. to be honest, they're not all happy with donald trump right now, the way they handled opec and a few other things. i will tell you this. i think the energy industry does get a bad rap because they don't

get credit for reducing greenhouse gases in this country. they are the industry that did it. the rest of the world, the paris climate exchange, not one of those countries were able to reduce the greenhouse gas emission. only the united states, because of the natural gas revolution. i think natural gas, you can talk about wind and solar all you want, it's going to be the most important fuel for the next 50 years because these other fuel sources are just not workable and not really green, when you get down to it. when you talk about building more windmills and solar farms. connell: phil, good to see you. phil flynn in chicago. we will come back with the panel in a moment, bring in ashley webster to talk about europe. there is brexit, there's news out of italy and some of the issues over there. compounded by a new crisis we will talk about when we come back. you wouldn't accept an incomplete job from anyone else.

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it is the number one priority for this department.

it's outlined in the national defense strategy. we think it's a long-term strategic competitor that's pursuing a maximication policy. they are clearly professionalizing and expanding the capacity and capabilities of the military in order to push the united states out of that theater. connell: that just in, the newly sworn in secretary of defense mark esper interviewed by fox news and saying that keeping a close eye on china, that it's the number one priority these days at the pentagon. you will hear more of that interview throughout the day on fox news and fox business. but that clip just in to us from the interview. a big meeting, meantime, between donald tusk and boris johnson to take place on sunday. we are going to watch this really close as to whether britain really gets past the brexit stalemate, a no-deal brexit really happens. the deadline of halloween is getting very close. well, relatively close. ashley webster still deciding on

a costume, joins us now. >> not really. i'm going as boris johnson. connell: you would make a good boris. what about this meeting over the weekend? what should we look forward to here? >> i think it means absolutely nothing. back to you. listen, listen, johnson has already met with angela merkel, today with french president macron, and they all smile and take the pictures and pat each other on the back, but it's the same deal back when theresa may was in number 10. they will not renegotiate this deal. boris wants to renegotiate brexit. he also wants to get rid of the irish backstop. we were already told by macron today that is a no-deal. tusk himself has said we are not going to renegotiate anything major. so here we go again. the big difference here, i think boris johnson could do absolutely nothing and the default position is the uk is out of the eu halloween night, october 31st. the question is whether uk

lawmakers can stop him from doing that. connell: that would be with no deal in place, right, so they would come out and no quote unquote, irish backstop and the big debate has been northern ireland, part of the uk, there are really no borders. you can drive from the republic of ireland into northern ireland and the fear has been for people there that if you don't have this so-called backstop, the hard borders, where you have british soldier guarding the border, they would come back, violence could come back as well. a long way of asking, boris johnson, could he have a situation where there's no technical backstop but also no quote unquote, hard border? how might he manage all this? >> that's a good question. but look, boris john sson has called that backstop which is the safety net, if you like, he's called it a lobster pot. he says once you go in there, you will have northern ireland trapped in the eu customs system possibly forever. there are those, i'm not sure there it's feasible to say they could have an invisible border

and use technical solutions to avoid having the troops on the northern ireland/irish border. in other words, maybe check trucks coming in and out of northern ireland at their destination and not at the border. there's all sorts of different scenarios being put out there. let me put it this way. the eu would never agree to any of that. but the bigger question is what happens under a no-deal brexit to the uk economy. we have had all sorts of really really horrendous forecasts, certainly a recession, businesses being encouraged to stockpile their goods, food will go up, fuel will go up, there will be enormous traffic jams at the borders down at dover, all sorts of, you know, doomsday scenarios whereas johnson and the brexiteers say that is fearmongering. connell: we will talk more about that. thank you, ashley. good luck on the boris costume. on the tense brexit battle, it's not only that when you talk about europe, there's been news out of italy this week that the prime minister is resigning there.

where does that kind of leave things in the eu and the relationship with those countries and the united states? back now with the panel. will, you want to take the uk first on ashley's point, because there is a debate now, we are getting closer to it being a reality, of a no-deal brexit and what it means for the economy, anywhere as he says from disaster to eh, not too bad. where do you stand? >> i agree with almost everything he said apart from maybe one point. i do think there's a slim chance of something mapping. boris johnson meeting with angela merkel over the weekend was a sign in my mind that was maybe some indication that europe was prepared to give some concession. but overwhelming opinion would favor a no-deal brexit. connell: what would it look like to the economy? >> i think the short term it's going to be pretty bad. there was a pretty serious report leaked over the weekend from the "sunday times" but official government report talking about the government's plans or thoughts about a no-deal brexit and it wasn't particularly pretty reading.

connell: a question if companies are prepared for this and whether governments are prepared to put some, you know, could slow people down certainly, whether it's a disaster or not remains to be seen. what about italy with conte out there, how important a story is that? there was even talk before that italy could be the next one to go. i guess that's kind of died down. what do you think? >> i was a big brexit supporter. i think there will be short-term costs and they could be ugly but the long term favors -- i always thought no deal was the most likely option. because i think europe is behaving badly on this. europe is not trying to be accommodating and the danger for europe is that if britain leaves and it is successful, other people may want to leave, too. they are very high-handed and they could have negotiated better, i think, in different ways. i think europe should be worried as much as britain. connell: wish i had more time. believe it or not, jessica used to work for boris johnson. you know anything about this, it

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i tell truecar my zip and which car i want and truecar shows the range of prices people in my area actually paid for the same car so i know if i'm getting a great price. this is how car buying was always meant to be. this is truecar. connell: we told you earlier patrick byrne had announced his resignation as ceo of overstock.com. we just learned that david asman and the crew at "bulls & bears" have booked patrick byrne exclusively to appear on their

program tonight, 5:00 p.m. eastern with david and the crew on "bulls & bears." that should be very very interesting. in the meantime, the 2020 trump campaign is launching a new effort today, trying to court women voters. it's hoping the message of women's economic empowerment will help with the suburban women vote. independent womens forum senior policy analyst patrice lianwuca is our guest along with the panel. what do you think of this move, take a bunch of surrogates, women on the campaign, or who support the campaign, send them out trying to get this vote and you know, keep it away from the democrats who did very well with this particular group of voters in the 2018 midterms? >> i think it's smart for the campaign to reinforce the good work that's been done for women in this economy. i have read some of the talking points. some of the things they're saying are actually true. we see women's unemployment rate hitting historic lows. we are seeing their labor force participation at historic highs.

i love one statistic that i don't think anyone is recognizing but in 2017 to 2018, women started 1,800 new businesses each day. that tells you something special about the economy. i think the president and his campaign are right to really hang their hat on it. hopefully this is news to a lot of women who didn't recognize all of these highlights. connell: if you think about it, jessica, it's similar to the argument the president has been making at a lot of rallies, he doesn't mention women, he usually gives a guy as an example, you may not love me personally but your economic situation is better. i mean, we talk about why does it matter what the gender is, that argument could work in certain areas, right? if the economy holds up. >> an economic argument affects everybody. that's been true since the dawn of elections. pocketbook issues. we know a majority of women are the ones controlling the pocketbook in the household, making the major spending decisions, they are most invested and on top of their children's education and what's

going on in the community. i will say to patrice's point, you raised the issue about the 2018 midterms where we saw record levels of support for democrats, especially from female candidates, there is a problem that republicans are facing here that it's not surmountable by just standing at a rally and saying oh, the economy is better for you. connell: it's a trump personality problem. i get it. >> it is a personality problem. immigration is also an issue with it. when you look at him under water now even with white women without a college degree which was a group that went for him, 51% of the white female vote -- connell: they obviously realize that and are trying to get out ahead of that and push back with economics but you know, that's a fair point jessica brings up. you do have some work to do there if you are the trump campaign, right, because of the president's own words and to some degree, his actions or tweets or whatever the case may be. >> well, that's true. i think a lot of women do get turned off sometimes by the rhetoric they hear, but when it comes down to some of those issues, i thought it's interesting that according to

the economist, just this week, the president has a plurality of women's support for how he's handling the economy. that was higher than it was a couple weeks ago. i think he's starting to make in-roads. certainly immigration is tied with the economy for number two or three issues among women, but when it comes to immigration, that's something really important. when women consider national security and how the border crisis is being dealt with. so i think it's smart. we are over a year and a half i guess in advance of the election, to try to say okay, start seeding the ground now. there's a core support among women who are not leaving the trump campaign. now what i think they are trying to do is take those women and see if they can utilize their support and gin up additional support. i do think at the end of the day there are a lot of women who will say rhetoric aside, my life is better and i still support him. we saw that with the access hollywood tape. it is something that could absolutely happen again and democrats are certainly preparing themselves for that. i wanted to add to the point about a plurality of women which

obviously about his approval on the economy, health care is the number one issue and republicans are so far under water on that issue, they are in real danger here. there isn't a viable republican plan. now they are talking about repeal and replace again. that is dangerous going into an election. >> unfortunately, democrats are pushing for medicare for all. which is unpopular. >> again, the frontrunner is looking to improve obamacare. that's what all the moderates in the house are doing. connell: it brings us to the same point we talk about all the time. the risk for the democrats seems to be if you do have an opening here, moving too far to the left whether on health care, or other issues, women, men, whoever, that's the risk. >> i think two things. jessica was talking about in the 2018 election, largely suburban college educated women that made the difference for a lot of democrats that defeated republicans in formerly red

areas, but at the time, that's what happened in my district in new jersey, where trump wasn't mentioned. a lot of them didn't campaign on trump. they campaigned on health care. the other thing i would just say is in the media, especially, we talk about women as though unless you are elizabeth warren with her agenda, you are not really -- there are a lot of women out there who are pro-life. >> absolutely. connell: all right. it's a good talk. we'll see how it worksment t. the campaign is making this effort public. patrice, good to see you. we will come back with the panel. stocks have been picking up steam here in the hour. boeing's got a lot to do with it. it's up 15 bucks but it's not just that. the dow is now up nearly 100 points. as that chart shows you, up as the day goes on or as this hour goes on. remember, the big speech tomorrow, jay powell, out in jackson hole. we'll be right back. my insurance rates are probably gonna double.

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connell: talking immigration here for a moment. the new migrant rules getting some backlash. the trump administration looking for the ability to indefinitely detain migrants found crossing illegally on the u.s./mexico border. this comes as republicans and democrats have been struggling to come up with any kind of plan in terms of a bipartisan border solution. we bring in the california republican congressman tom mcclintock to talk about this. good to see you today from sacramento. thanks for coming on. there is some backlash here, maybe these new rules end up as the case seems to be with so many immigration stories, in federal court. but tell us your take on it and you know, what this might change about the situation. >> i think the president has been dealt an impossible hand. he's got a hostile congress in the house, the democrats are pushing every policy that adds up to open borders. he has a hostile leftist

activist particularly in the lower district courts and he's doing his best through his executive orders or his executive authority to stem what is perhaps the greatest threat to american security and sovereignty in our lifetimes and that is the virtual collapse of our southern border. connell: um-hum. what do you say to people who say you are going to be holding, especially children for an indefinite amount of time, that's not the most humane thing to do and that's i suppose where most of this backlash is coming from. how do you answer the critics? >> that gets to the flores decision which says if you bring a child across the border, in effect we can only hold you for 20 days. well, big surprise, we have seen a massive increase in children being brought across the border. we are seeing about four times the number of families or groups claiming to be families illegally crossing the border, as we saw just last year. so that's the magnitude of the problem. as long as that flores decision or settlement stands, that's

going to be the ticket to come in. in fact, the "wall street journal" just had an article about how the schools in guatemala are literally being depopulated as kids are being brought as your guaranteed golden ticket to get into the country. connell: the idea i guess if you change the rules, it's to change the incentives along with the rules and hope fewer people come. how much of a difference do you think this could actually make? >> if it stuck it would make a big difference. but i'm sure it will run afoul of some leftist activist on the ninth circuit court and we'll be back to the status quo. i think what the president is really doing is basically setting the stage for the 2020 campaign, and going to the american people and saying look, i've done everything i can as president, we've got to decide as the american people whether we want to continue as a distinct country or simply become this vast international territory between canada and mexico, because without borders and border enforcement, that's

what we have become. connell: final point, it seems both sides for a long time have been setting up the campaign as opposed to actually talking about a solution. we talk to people off the air about immigration, you have five, six solutions thrown out and whether it's going back to daca and you make a deal there and give here, and people seem to figure it out amongst themselves, it almost seems simple. in congress it seems like you guys aren't even having those conversations. are you, at all? >> well, you are absolutely right. the path to resolve this is to secure our border, then provide legal status for those who, as children, were brought into this country many years ago and grew up here. that would be the ideal compromise. connell: we are not getting that any time soon. >> republicans are prepared to agree to that compromise. we can't get buy-in from the democrats. the democrats have been, you look at every policy they have advocated, it all adds up to open borders. without borders, we are no longer a country. connell: even the new rules as

we both said, ends up in the courts and we don't know how it ends up from there. congressman, thanks for coming on to talk about it. stf obviously still an important issue. we will get into some reports that maybe the risky mortgage is making something of a comeback. how serious this is and could get after a quick break. we'll be right back.

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connell: here's the 30-year mortgage rate, 3.55%. as the "wall street journal" has a report the mortgage market is actually starting to reopen to what would be described as risky borrowers. the panel is still here. every time we see a story like this, people start to say can history repeat itself. how do you look at what's different versus what's the same now versus back then? >> i think this is something i

have been worried about for a long time, and you know, you have a situation where yields have come so low, everybody's trying to stretch for some kind of yield which has pushed a huge amount of money in the private credit markets which is less visible than the public markets, but all this has the effect of banks, everybody else looking for more ways to make money, which pushes people further and further out. connell: history could repeat itself? we have so many guests that come in and say it's different now, the banks are better, they are more capitalized and all kinds of other reasons but you think we could have a repeat? it's possible? >> we absolutely could have a repeat. the only difference is like you say, the banks are more capitalized now than they were ten years ago. that is a fact. but -- connell: that's just for dealing with the problem. >> the moral hazard that's been created by low interest rates, it's still the same and human behavior is still the same as it was and these cycles have a nasty habit of continuing. connell: what do you think, bill? >> yeah, i'm with him.

look, i don't have a problem with people buying -- taking out mortgages but we do have a system that artificially encourages that, right. now, we have mitigated that a little in the tax reform, limiting the deductibility but my understanding, britain and canada have the same rates of home ownership without these kind of deductions and incentives here. i would rather have them be clean decisions. i'm also not sure especially for people at the bottom end of the income scale, if a home is really the right thing for them to do, to tie themselves down. it's not always clear to me that that is the best way for them to use their money. connell: do you think we will actually see a big surge in, you know, for the next however many months, if the consumer holds up, theoretically, and rates only go lower, will we see a huge surge in people buying, well, refinancing and buying? what do you think it will look like? >> i think you are always going to see refinancing activity

whenever the rates suit the customers at the time that they come to refinance. i think to bill's point, i have a big issue with this home ownership thing as well, because i think the law of unintended consequences. a lot of money gets trapped up in the housing market when it could be used for other more productive purposes, it stifles entrepreneurship and other sort of business activities, that needed that capital so it could be used in my mind for more productive purposes. connell: it's not always for everyone. >> can i just add to that? what is complicated about the home ownership issue in the american psyche is there is nothing more directly tied to the american dream and kind of a traditional definition of success. so if you are out there constantly messaging and saying the economy is doing great, look at your 401(k), look at the stock market -- connell: i made it. >> this is how i know i made it and also, it's an argument a lot of people especially on the right have been pushing back, this idea which i think you are smart to raise about transients and being willing to move if there's a great position in california, you should go do it or montana or wherever it might

be, to have the flexibility. but flexibility is the antithesis of stability and people crave stability in their lives. there's nothing more stable than this is my home and i own it. connell: this almost reminds me of how we talk about college sometimes, too, right, i think there has to be some truth to that even though the statistics show that you are more likely to make more money if you go to college, doesn't necessarily mean -- >> it doesn't really break it down. because we like to know if you are a chemical engineering major you will probably make a pretty good return on your investment. connell: what about communication ss communications? >> very low. very low. >> poll the panel. >> there are studies showing some majors like business communications, there's no cognitive improvement in these students for two years. they are getting ripped off. connell: after you get out of college -- >> at least when you buy a house, you have a house. sometimes you get a degree, you have nothing. connell: if you are out of college for 20 years, say for example you have gotten dumber and dumber. >> you might have your own show.

connell: have your own show at 4:00. >> someone might be in that situation. >> one person. connell: we've got to go. bill just ended on a down note. quick word as we go to break on alibaba. bill actually probably would have thoughts on this. i don't know if we have time. i thought this was interesting given what's going on in hong kong. alibaba is putting its hong kong stock listing on hold. that's always been a concern, bill, you know, that the money starts to move out, people are uncertain with all -- >> you are seeing it now. look, i lived in hong kong for a long time. the saddest thing is we are now seeing the politics intrude on business decisions. cathay pacific being forced, the ceo forced out because it looks like he wouldn't report people that support the protests. threatening the hong kong people by pictures of troops mobilizing. this is a terrible thing. world class financial system. connell: there's more to it. we'll be right back.

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connell: here we go. for those following the two year yield, 1.6. back barely above the 10-year yield. puts us back so-called inversion territory. that at some point down the line we'll find out what if anything. for now the earth keeps spinning. see you at 4:00. charles payne takes over. charles: i can tell you in 28 months. connell: back in time. charles: charles payne, this is "making money." breaking this moment, market marking time ignoring economic data including robust consumer. it is about the fed and fed policy which feels more or less like a rudderless ship. on that note we hear directly from kansas city esther george, she is one of two dissenters who voted against a rate cut. you want to know what she thinks now ahead of tomorrow's hotly anticipated jay powell speech. socialists are at it again.