country. right-hand side of the screen, dorian, a hurricane which is previousing florida and will hit sometime late labor day weekend. left-hand side of the screen, hong kong. a big demonstration could still be in the offing. risk of violence on saturday night. neil cavuto. yours, sir. neil: you're right, stuart. something bad goes there, all bets off tuesday, talking about hong kong, on again, off again, you don't know. we have latest on hong kong. in our country, hurricane dorian is all anyone talking about. a dangerous category 4 storm. flight cancellations building ahead of all of this. it could run into thousands across the country whether you're in that neck of the woods. gas stations going empty as reports of fuel shorts already. this thing doesn't touch down in florida, if that is the ongoing track, for another couple days. empty shelves, long lines, grocery stores across the state. people are panicking.

they scarf up anything they can from those shelves. we're getting all of that. meantime, get a gauge where we stand with this storm. accuweather chief meteorologist bernie reno with the latest on its path. what are we looking at, bernie? >> we're looking at a strengthening hurricane, i'm afraid if it hits the central coast of florida, which is what we are forecasting it will be a catastrophic storm. all right. throughout the morning we've been looking at a strengthening hurricane. take a look, at this. just in the last couple of frames, you are starting to see the eye pop in the middle of the cloud structure. now, listen i've been doing this for 29 years. one thing i know an identifiable eye on the infrared satellite picture, you are looking at a major hurricane. what do i mean by that? ooh talking about a hurricane of at least 120 mile-an-hour

sustained winds. hurricane center update had it at 110. i can tell you this is stronger than 110 miles per hour. notice the movement. 24 hours ago, it was northwest at 12 to 13 miles an hour. that movement now is at 10 miles per hour. i want to show you satellite estimated radar. you can see the eye on this graphic. not much in terms of impact on turks & caicos, even bahamas. the problem, neil, this storm is out over the open waters of the atlantic where water temperatures are sky-high, 84, 85 degrees fahrenheit. there is no wind sheer. show you that in a second. with no interaction to land, there is nothing stopping this system from developing. i will show you the water vapor loop. this is frightening. i show you why. the reason why dorian was not strengthening t. it was getting dry air. that was going on the last 24

hours. now what you're seeing, this dry air is pushed away from the storm in all quadrants. what does that mean? there is no more dry air coming into the storm. also because you're getting this push away from all quadrants of the storm, this tells us there is no wind sheer or light winds in the upper part of the atmosphere. the slow something starting to occur now because it is this upper level low over the bahamas now that is pushing this to the northwest. this is a very unusual track. usually storms move from west to east. this is to the northwest, because of this upper low. but that upper low is moving away. it is weakening. you know what will happen? the steering flow is also going to weaken. so dorian is going to be slowing as it pushes to the northwest. then there will be a bending to the west. right now, we're thinking landfall, central coast of florida, west palm beach the space coast, late monday night,

tuesday morning. neil: oh, by, thank you very much, bernie, appreciate it as always. in florida, all 67 counties in the sunshine state are under emergency order. florida emergency management director brian kuhn on that. good to have you. >> thank you for having me. neil: state of emergency order, all counties, 67 in florida are under that, what does that mean? >> that means that the state has authorized the state government and local government to do everything they need to prepare for this storm. so it frees up their ability to make sure that all of the processes are in place, that all the goods and services they may need to get ready to respond to this storm are easily attainable. neil: you said that in motion. is the next step they urge evacuation of coastal, vulnerable communities, which would be virtually all of them in florida, what would happen then? >> that's right. right now all of the local

government age sys keeping close eye on the storm. how it will impact them. they're looking at evacuation plans. looking at storm surge. they're trying to best serve citizens by getting them to place of safety. they will start with those most vulnerable, live along the coastlines. those who live in low-lying areas, work in mobile homes. that is what everybody is doing, how best to make sure their citizens will be safe when this storms makes landfall. neil: always a dicey thing to predict, especially days out. paths could change. the direction of all of could change. after all this was the same storm at that was supposed to hit puerto rico. puerto ricans dodged it. what contingency plans do you make in the event that is strays by the state but goes further up north, carolinas, georgia, that sort of thing? >> right now everybody from miami up to nassau county on east coast of florida should pay

close attention to it. any of them are susceptible to the storm right now. as your forecaster earlier, there is potential it could go up into the carolinas. potential to go up in the gulf of mexico, panhandle, depending where it makes the turn. everybody in florida needs to pay close attention to it, considering how they will prepare themselves, family, business, community for impacts of the storm. as well as folks in georgia, florida, south carolina, north carolina. either direct impacts of this storm, remnants of this storm. there will be tremendous rainfall and wind field when it gets up into those states. neil: it will stick around. it is not exactly a fast-moving storm. how does that play into whatever plans? >> that plays in tremendously. you know, with a fast-moving storm you get impacts, you start into the response and recovery. when you have a slow moving storm like this one, you will have a lot more rain build up. you will have lot more inland flooding. you will have a slower response

time. so your first-responders will have a delayed reaction to be able to get out there and check on people and clear the roads. the power companies will take a little bit longer to get out there, start checking outlines and polls -- poles. we have done a great job hardening those, the fact we'll lose power. we have to wait until the wind dies down before we check on them. everything will be delayed. the rainfall rates, inland flooding will be worse and storm surge will be worse, because of slow movement of the storm once it hits the state. neil: you're an encyclopedia. former florida emergency management director. rick leventhal in delray beach where residents, not surprisingly are preparing. what is the latest from there, rick? reporter: they're getting ready, lining up in every box store, every grocery store, gas station, topping off tanks, filling carts. buying cases of water and buying

sheets of fly wood and buying generators, whatever else they might need. the big question, neil as you have been talking about where is the thing going to hit? nobody seems to know for sure. the storm has been unpredictable. there are, some agreement at least they think that it will hit between central florida or palm beach county where is center of that cone of uncertainty now. a lot of people could be impacted by this. a lot of people are trying to prepare in best ways they can. we talked into folks who packed into a home depot in north miami this morning. >> i just got to home depot. 6:00 a.m., they just opened. i don't think they have much left. we came in for water and butane stove. they're all out. wish me luck. >> this is potentially a multiday event where it will churn slowly across the state.

that obviously creates a whole host of issues. reporter: neil, this thing is going to be very, very dangerous. if in fact it follows the forecasted paths, hits the florida coast as they say with category 4 with 140 mile-per-hour winds, we have seen first-hand what speeds can do to homes and businesses, trees, power lines. if it's a slow moving storm, which they say it will be, that prolongs misery, prolongs heavy rains pounding already saturated ground, creating all sorts of flooding issues, knocking down trees, power lines. millions of people could be in the dark, if it hits as hard as they say it will in the area it might. neil: you covered so many disasters, curious, what point do they pull the triggerevacuations? how close can they be to make that call? >> that is excellent question. that is a question for the

government. you know, and in many cases we've seen that they waited too late to make that call. neil: right. >> but in this situation when you have such a wide area, you can't tell everyone to get out of town because i-95 would be a parking lot. it would create even more problems for a lot of people. they have to get a better handle where it is going to be. i don't know, honestly neil, when that is going to be. whether later tonight, sometimes tomorrow, they will have much better sense of this thing. we've seen it make unpredictable turns before. i was down here for hurricane andrew in 1992. they were sure it would hit fort lauderdale and made a jog to the left, wound up in homestead. pretty much was everyone out of position on that one. that could happen again. neil: even in this one in san juan couple days ago they were worried there. you never know. rick, great reporting as always. rick leventhal. reporter: thank you. neil: a lot of airlines allowing travelers to change flights into and out of florida for a penalty. you don't have to be in the

course of the storm. everything having to be with jets that have to be moved or not moved as a result of this. grady trimble with the latest from chicago oy hair. grady. reporter: neil, this is not a bad travel day looking at the boards. the flights to florida are on time. the flights from florida are the same. whereas yesterday we were talking about sunday into monday landfall disrupting flights tomorrow and sunday, we're not looking at that. monday night, maybe even tuesday morning. so the flights into the weekend are not the issue. it is later. we've been talking to people here who are flying out, despite that offer from all of these airlines, american, delta, jetblue, united, all major airlines offering travelers the opportunity to change their flights. even cancel them without any fees. but we see people showing up here, getting on the plane, no problem. including one gentleman i spoke, he is going down there to pack up his girlfriend to bring her out of harm's way up here but

they're leaving some family down in florida. >> lived there all of her life. she has seen it all. they have survived most of them. you know, major ones, i'm sorry. of the she is not concerned. they're experienced. they know how to prepare, board up, pick up supplies. it is pretty much it. reporter: as of right now there are not any changes that major airlines announced to weekend flight schedules. as this thing gets closer, it will become inevitable, that lots of flights will be impacted by this, not just in florida, but with connections. there is delays all over the country when something of this magnitude hits. neil? neil: exactly right. grady, thank you very, very much. grady in chicago on that. as grady pointed out here in the hub and spoke system with the airline industry right now, you could be in san francisco and chicago not going anywhere near florida. your flight would be affected by this or repositioned if they can reposition it by this because the beauty and convenience of

our hub and spoke system it is supposed to cut down on delays, make things more efficient when you fly. in a perverse situation it complicates this, one hub is down, a couple of other speaks go down. we're on top of that, off corner of wall and broad. a lot of traders take the day off before a long holiday weekend that can exaggerate some activity that you see happening right now. a lot of that built on back and forth on trade, are talks still on? yes. are chinese still promising not to retaliate? yes. we have worrisome economic news. yes. after this. thanks to you, we will. aw, stop. this is why voya helps reach today's goals... ...all while helping you to and through retirement. um, you guys are just going for a week, right? yeah! that's right. can you help with these? oh... um, we're more of the plan,

invest and protect kind of help... sorry, little paws, so. but have fun! send a postcard! voya. helping you to and through retirement.

to the wait did frowe just win-ners. prouders everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design

your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy a new samsung note. click, call or visit a store today. neil: all right. this is what got us really jumping this morning after the

big runup yesterday. overnight words from the chinese foreign ministry effective communications are continuing. normally this is gobbledygook to me. one guy understands it perfectly is blake burman. maybe why stocks were racing. i guess it was and encouraging develop men, right, blake? reporter: i guess. you have been spot on with this, neil over the last week. it is so tough to decipher what we should decipher, what we shouldn't decipher. here is what we know. the president called into brian kilmeade's radio show said there were talks continuing, quote, unquote, different level, different level was the phrase. china's foreign ministry responded to that, was asked about that today, this is how they described it, quote, what i can tell you is, first the economic and trade teams of china and the united states have always maintained effective communication. he is saying there has been communication, for both sides, for a while, weeks into months,

they always talk back and forth. sources though. this is important. neil, sources have been telling us complicated puzzle, what potentially fits into all of this intermediaries. the u.s. has big names in the private sector, we're told, have been acting quote, unquote, intermediaries what that means, floating ideas back and forth one way described to me, or trial ballooning for example. two names we have been told have acted as intermediaries for the u.s. steve schwarzman, left-hand side of the screen, head of blackrock as you know, john thornton, former head of goldman sachs, has extensive tights to china. it is unclear who is acting as an intermediary with the u.s. at this point in time. the treasury secretary earlier this week alluded to it. listen. >> vice premier liu he came out with a very significant statement and we've been

communicating with intermediaries back and forth with them. reporter: you heard from the mnuchin, communicating with intermediaries. talk at quote, unquote, differently level. we're learning from sources that steve schwarzman, john thornton have been intermediaries on behalf of the u.s. you put the statement up there from china, they're always talking and u.s. says they're always talking, once you start hearing about different level, you have to wonder, neil, if that is the potentially what the president is referring to. neil? neil: gotcha, gotcha. thank you very much. reporter: did we make sense of it? neil: no, what i admire about you, if you don't know you say you don't know. i generally don't admire that quality. you have to find a way -- reporter: this china puzzle is intricate. i tell you that. neil: my goodness. thank you very my friend, very much, blake burman at white house. consumer sentiment, degree of the drop since 2012.

at the lowest level couple years. people were seizing it, consumer going gangbuster, these are volatile numbers. asking you about your mood, are you happy, are you not. i don't put this much stock in this data. i don't know who does, if my next guest does. follow as lot of data, the concrete, less concrete. fifth third bank chief economist strategist. jeff, what do you make of the let's say the mood of people in this country, shoppers in this country, it is enact science, it is slipping do you agree? >> we don't read too much into consumer confidence surveys. they have notoriously non-predictive power. what is more happening incomes in the united states. they continue to rise. that will drive consumer spending more than sentiment. neil: but you know, if you look at the conflicts of all the data, i follow very closely, most of it has been pretty good.

we might not come off highs in some cases here. most has been pretty positive. i'm wondering whether that is a good backdrop for the markets? certainly by comparison to any other economy on earth, i mean we're doing okay? >> well, ideally you want business investment and the consumer both heavily engaged. we're in a period because of the, all uncertainty, particularly around trade, perhaps about the upcoming election as well, where the business community has scaled back their cap-ex, their investment for the future. consumer is carrying the ball here. consumer spending, interest in spending continues to be very good. to the degree confidence play as roll there, it may shift some spending away from big-ticket items, more towards smaller items, small ticket luxuries. neil: your sense of this flattening versus inverted yield

curve where we are flatter more than inverted, shorter term rates eclipsing longer-term rates, how long do they have to be inverted to get a guy like you worried? >> i think fair to say we take the sign already very seriously. inversion of the 2 and 10 curve does precede recessions in post-world war ii history. but what is really important to consider is, how much time you have left. and hour view this time around is that the negative interest rates abroad have probably dragged down the 10-year, to some degree. so inversion signal this year is likely to be particularly early and perhaps in a sense, premature. so we're already incorporating it. it is something we're keeping an eye on. it doesn't tell us there is recession right around the corner. neil: everyone seems to expect a decisional quarter-point cut in interest rates in september. are you in that camp?

>> we are reluctantly. we're not very enthusiastic as you may know about the fed's policy of doing this mini ease. we think it is not very productive policy. one that is fraught with some risks. i have to wonder what the fed thinks of their policy already. they can't be very happy with the market response and additional volatility. it is, by its nature, mini easing cycles can't do very much. particularly this cycle. where our problem is not fundamentally a monetary problem. it is more structural issues in the u.s. economy. lower interest rates benefit a little but, you really have to weigh that against the costs of doing this policy and giving out future ammunition to fight a more significant downturn. neil: thank you very, very much, jeff. good seeing you again. >> thanks. neil: as jeff is speaking we're getting confusing, conflicting reports out of hong kong.

remember the protests planned for this weekend were shelved or canceled or delayed. that is apparently not the case. they still plan to have them, despite the fact that the chinese government said they don't think it's a good idea for them to have them. so add to that, another sort of wild card development for the markets there, here, pretty much everywhere. after this.

if your gums bleed when you brush, you may have gingivitis. and the clock could be ticking towards bad breath, receding gums, and possibly... tooth loss. help turn back the clock on gingivitis with parodontax. leave bleeding gums behind. parodontax. all right brad, once again i have revolutionized the songwriting process. oh, here we go. i know i can't play an instrument, but this... this is my forte. obviously, for auto insurance, we've got the wheel route. obviously. retirement, we're going with a long-term play. makes sense. pet insurance, wait, let me guess... flea flicker. yes! how'd you know? studying my playbook? yeah, actually.

neil: they're on, they're off. apparently they're back on. these planned protests that would be happening in hong kong, then they pulled them when major pro-democracy leader was released from prison, unfortunately others were captured by hong kong police, that really roiled them. meantime jonathan hunt with the very latest from hong kong, what we could be seeing. jonathan? reporter: neil, several of the leading pro-democracy activists were arrested today in raids on the street, in some cases in

raids at private homes, in the cases of others. among those arrested, joshua wong, agnes chow, two of leading activists in the prodemocracy movement. the leaders were brought here with police headquarters, charged with inciting, organizing, taking part in unlawful protests but while those are the formal charges, it seems the purpose was really to send a very clear message to anybody who is thinking of taking part in protests over the weekend, that they are subject to arrest and detention. meantime, these huge water filled barriers were placed around police headquarters, in case any of those protesters decide to come here. protesters have been further unnerved by the sight of chinese troops and army vehicles, including anti-riot vehicles

crossing border into hong kong from mainland china. in the wake of all this a leader activist told us an in ininterview we were asked not to reveal any details of her location. it is time for president trump to send the chinese government a clear message here. >> stop bullying. do not force the world to play by chinese rule but china, if they want to accept it, they want to be accepted by the intermax community, they should respect the rules already in international community. reporter: bonnie's group, the civil human rights front, canceled its part in the planned demonstrations over the weekend, but neil, what that actually means is probably there will be peaceful protesters will stay

away. the hardcore protesters, who have already been involved in many violent clashes with the hong kong police, say that they will still be out in force tomorrow, so there is every likelihood there will be more violence on the streets of hong kong. neil? neil: holy cow. jonathan, thank you very, very much. jonathan hunt. meantime, no evacuations as rick leventhal reporting from florida just yet. they're trying to be extra cautious, not to create panic when they pull the trigger on that, if they pull trigger on that. after this. at fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. that's why, your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account.

just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. what about him? ♪ let's do it. ♪ come on. this summer, add a new member to the family. hurry in and lease the glc 300 suv for just $419 a month with credit toward your first month's payment at the mercedes-benz summer event. going on now.

neil: coastal cities in florida preparing for dorian any way they can. hotels are booked, most of them just in case. travel expert amy west, what people should expect, what do they do in the event you're looking for alternative, can't find one. amy, good to have you. what kind of intelligence are you getting on the ground from people, what they have to do? >> well, right now, they haven't enforce ad mandatory evacuation. but as a florida resident, someone who ridden out several hurricanes i would certainly encourage voluntary evacuations for those who are closer to where the storm will be hitting. neil: i always wonder, it's a tough call. you don't want to panic people, they go frantically out on the road at the same time.

you create bedlam, risk accidents and worse. so i get that. what in florida, you're in jacksonville. you know the state well. you know the hurricane experience well, most nor floridians do, how do you play that? at the outset, maybe now is the time, if you have any concerns to, move out, but move where? not move permanently to get out. >> as a traveler or visitor, either stay at home or go back home. now is not the time to be visiting florida. as a resident, the first thing we think of when we hear a storm may be hitting our coast, we immediately look at hotels inland. with it being over holiday weekend with labor day, all the hotels are already booked. those who had foresight look in advance, we're finding that there is very little capacity right now in the hotels. so you can look into airbnbs. if you can't find an hotel, get on the road, find a friend to stay with. neil: it is always dicey because

if this does have a path takes it into the gulf after hitting florida, that is always problematic, inland isn't an option either? >> right. that is what he is found with irma. there was more flooding inland than there was even at the coast. i live at the beach. i was able to compare that. we at the beach didn't see as much of the disaster those living in town, had to deal with flooding from the river. it's a hard call. neil: it's a very tough call. amy, thank you very much. travel expert, amy west, out of jacksonville, beautiful city, beautiful state. >> yes, thank you. neil: meanwhile, you know, you like to refinance, all of sudden rates get low. refinance mortgage you have or try to get something else. the government is considering essentially doing the same wits debt. but what its doing, and for how long it wants to do it, well that is a headline after this. with this key to the city.

[ applause ] it's an honor to tell you that liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. and now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

neil: all right. the administration says we'll plan to improve the odds you get overtime to your job. there are a lot of restrictions opening up so more can qualify for it. i think that is the gist of it. lauren simonetti joins with us more. >> that is the gist of it. it is appropriate story for labor day. the labor department, neil, that working a new rule that would pay overtime to at least a million americans. "the wall street journal" reporting that the trump administration wants to raise the threshold who gets a ot. that is $23,660. it has been at level for 15 years. the white house wants to increase it to $36,000. if you make less than 36 k a year you can get paid time 1/2. before you get excited, i will point out two things. the obama administration tried this in 2016. they set a much higher threshold but states and businesses challenged it. it didn't happen. bosses can find a work around that could mean cutting back your hours, or hiring more low

level, entry level workers. it could also mean good news is good news everyone eligible gets paid more money. white house is putting finishing touches before labor secretary gets sworn in. lauren? neil: when rates get low, u.s. government getting the same. the tipoff when treasury secretary steve mnuchin was looking at longer-term debt. what about a 50 year bond? what about 100 year bond? it is not so crazy when you look at rates this low, historically low, all-time low. want to lock those puppies in while you can. would that ease things for taxpayers? former trump senior economic advisor what he thinks of this. what do you think, steve? >> neil, good to be with you. this is the once in a lifetime opportunity for the fed to lock in the rates at one or 2% interest rates and i calculate if they were to do that, go long on these bonds, in other words, neil, every time a short-term

bond is matured, you issue a 30-year bond or, you said, why not a 50 year bond, some countries have 100 year bond, neil. neil: i know. >> i think austria has 100 year bond. you know what the interest rate is on that? take a wild guess? 1%. neil: my goodness. >> imagine we could lock in even at 1 1/2%. by the way this is way below what the congressional budget office is forecasting interest rate costs for the federal government next 20 or 30 years. i calculate, if we do it smartly, we could save $2 trillion over the next 30 years. neil: waiting for existing bonds to mature or not? there is always risk in back of my mind, someone says, wait a minute, you will not default on existing bonds? >> no, no. the average maturity. average bond is five 1/2 years. the trump administration raised it from three years to five, five 1/2 years. what i'm saying, let's make the

average maturity on these bonds, 15 or 20 years. you lock in those rate today. look, does anybody really think 20 years from now we'll have a 30-year at, 2%? come on. and, so i love this idea. i think you will save a lot of money. taxpayers in the future will be very pleased that they're not -- look i'm old enough, neil, to remember when we had, you know, 15% interest rates on treasury bills. neil: sure. >> i'm not saying that is coming but, even if we had a return to normalcy, talking about 4 or 5% rates of interest, we could save a whole lot of money. neil: my biggest worry, steve, you're right to pursue it after you have low rights, time perfect to do it -- >> yeah. neil: it takes away the push to get spending under control. like you're dodging a bullet by refinancing the burden you already have. you never get to the underlying

spending which creates debt in the first place? >> this is exactly the complaint that some of my colleagues at the heritage foundation made when i presented this idea. they said, is this going to take the pressure off of congress to reduce spending? great minds think alike on that, neil. my argument is, interest compensatetures are a big part of what we spend money on. we don't get any return from interest of the debt. at least if you build a road you get something for it. my argument, cut government spending wherever we can. one area we can cut government spending what we pay on interest on the debt. the debt portion of the federal budget is expected to triple over the next 25 years. hell yeah, let's cut the expenditures. neil: expectations the federal reserve cuts rate a quarter of a percent next month. >> yeah. neil: no one knows for sure. we do know the bad blood continues between the president and jerome powell. powell has not returned some of

these salvos. we got a hint of that, from the former new york fed head, bill dudley, who seemed to intimate, didn't say so many words, why should we woman to the president's rescue based on a bad trade move? stick it to him. what did you think of that? >> you know has been universally panned. i call him dudley do wrong. that is outrageous by a former fed bank president to say look, let's have the fed sabotage the economy so trump loses. then we can get somebody else in who i like better. one of the things he said in that piece, neil, we have to get rid of trump, because if he is reelected he will cause a global financial calamity. isn't that exactly what they said in 2015 and 2016 when trump was elected president? neil: i don't know whether this is even in the fed's edict, that if, you are rewarding in their view, bad behavior or one ripping up trade agreements. not political issue.

>> okay. neil: do you reward that by bailing whoever occupant of the white house -- >> i'm glad you asked that question because nobody understands the rationale for this rate cut. the rationale for the rate cut is not to somehow magically simulate the economy by printing money. that doesn't work. the reason we need these rate cuts because we're facing deflationary environment. it dovetails when we were talking about. why are interest rates so low? were would people buy 30 year treasury bond at less than 2% interest rates? because people are worried about deflation. germany and other countries have negative interest rates. that is a defacto sign of deflation in the economy. we have to inject more dollars into the economy. there is nothing the fed can do to offset the cost of tariffs. that, dudley is right about that. you can't somehow print money to offset the real damage that a trade war does. i support what trump is doing on

china but it is hurting the economy. so i just, i want those rate cuts because i want, i want to prevent -- look what happened with the price of oil, cotton, corn, timber. those prices are falling like a rock right now. that's deflation. neil: all right. that is a push for locking in low rates while you have it. >> there you go. neil: my friend, see you. have a safe weekend. steve moore. >> you too. neil: jeff bezos is making headlines right now. not the kind of likes and for the reason he likes. a number of investigations saying a lot of products sold on his site are unsafe. now what? they answered 410 questions in 8 categories about vehicle quality. and when they were done, chevy earned more j.d. power quality awards across cars, trucks and suvs than any other brand over the last four years. so on behalf of chevrolet, i want to say

"thank you, real people." you're welcome. we're gonna need a bigger room. play it cool and escape heartburn fast with new tums chewy bites cooling sensation. ♪ tum tum tum tums with new tums chewy bites cooling sensation. at comcast, we didn't build the nation's largest gig-speed network just to make businesses run faster. we built it to help them go beyond. because beyond risk... welcome to the neighborhood, guys. there is reward. ♪ ♪

beyond work and life... who else could he be? there is the moment. beyond technology... there is human ingenuity. ♪ ♪ every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond.

neil: in a heap of controversy and trouble, lawmakers are calling on amazon's jeff bezos

to remove thousands of unsafe products still deemed on the site. edward in lawrence with more. what is going on here? reporter: amazon is now on the clock with the u.s. senate. jeff bezos has 30 days to respond to a letter from three senators concerned about illegal, deadly, deceptive items sold on the website. the letter from three senators, he had markky -- ed markey, bob menendez and richard blumenthal. a person died in a motorcycle accident when the helmet came off. he bought it on amazon. it was supposed to be a approved. we're talking about everything from toys and cosmetics labeled as fda approved, toys with unsafe levels of lead, infant sleeping mats, linked to suffocation. none of this is disclosed on a description from amazon. senators are concerned even if the product are the banned from

the site they show up in mother post. they're concerned the monitoring is inadequate. amazon pointed us to a statement on the website. in the statement it said, that amazon spent $400 million in 2018 on various tools to review, looking for these items or programs for that. the company says that every few minutes their tools spend or review hundreds of millions of items sold on their website every day. back to you, neil. neil: a lot of items. thank you very, very much, edward lawrence. purdue pharma, remember that multibillion dollar deal, the rich family behind it, offering billions of dollars to settle opioid related suits, apparently not enough. jackie deangelis with the latest wrinkle in all of this. what is going on? >> the issue some feel it may not be enough in terms of a deal that was proposed. you have some state attorney generals they want more money from the sack letters themselves. i will walk you through the

breakdown. they don't like the settlement relies on future opioid sales, right? the deal as it stands is roughly $12 billion. the company would filed for bankruptcy. purdue. it would be a public benefit corporation run by trustees. the sackler family would cede their ownership. they pay $3 billion in contribution to the 12 billion. neil: the family alone? >> family alone. they are very wealthy. but they would sell a second company that sells opioids abroad. purdue has not responded to this. neither have the sacklers themselves. the question, where do we go from here? there is a judge from cleveland overseeing the federal claims. he doesn't have jurisdiction over the state claims. he is trying to put a global solution together to deal with everything that is out there. they have until today to get updates where the talks stand, in terms of the getting state ags all on the same page as well. this is proving to be a very, very complicated litigation. the question is, after the j&j settlement, where does all this money go? these are states.

these are not victims getting these big paychecks. and the states will say, we need the money because there was a spillover effect. we had to increase law enforcement. we had to create rehabilitation programs. we do all these things because so much went wrong in this crisis, not even just with the people who are -- neil: i'm worried if this goes into some other state slush fund spending initiative, whether run by republican or democratic positive. >> possible it could. neil: that it's a open pit. >> it is. it is tough to assess liability. the j&j verdict is part of that. are the companies solely responsible? doctors, intermediaries where is there responsibility? patient responsibility as well this has a lot of 10 can cycles. a lot of people are comparing it to the big tobacco cases. neil: what they knew and when they knew about it. jackie, one issue quickly came up on this was, say what you will with purdue it could have

filed for bankruptcy based on bills but it did not. this is a little different. i'm wondering could they push the company too far, regardless how people feel, saying well, we're out of this? >> they could potentially but i think timing was very crucial, they're talking about this kind of a deal after the j&j settlement, realizing like you're insinuating how far this could go. neil: right. >> they may really not have another choice at this point. neil: but in the end, looks like they will have to pony up more cash? >> they will have a pony up. the sacklers are being held on the hook for this. they have taken their share of the blame, if you will. neil: right, right. a lot of blame that goes around a lot of people. jackie deangelis, thank you very much. a quick peek at the corner of wall and broad. we're up about 66 points. stocks are set to snap a four-week losing streak. neil: it would take a herculean leap of 2 plus percent to avoid

a down august. that looks baked into the proverbial financial cake. we'll have more after this. when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today.

join us for a walk? i'd love to, but my legs and feet are so tired and achy. walter, you need revitive ! it's the circulation booster! it really got me moving. i use my revitive every day! to relieve my aching legs and feet. it's so easy.... drug free.... and its electrical muscle stimulation really improves the circulation in my legs. i'm back walking this guy everywhere. check it out online. revitive ... fda cleared... clinically tested. only revitive relieves aches and pains, increases oxygen rich blood, and strengthens leg muscles. we've gotta do this. don't suffer any longer! order revitive medic with a 60 day money back guarantee. with free shipping and free returns. someone got revitive. order now and we'll send you our most popular treatment boosting accessories. a $50 value absolutely free!

go to revitive.com or call... get moving today! neil: so close to a category 3 storm right now. talking about dorian, with sustained winds of close to 110 miles an hour. it's expected to hit florida as a category 4. i think it's 130 mile per hour winds at a minimum. that could happen very very soon here. we go to acuweather's extreme meteorologist in cocoa beach, florida. how is this looking right now? reporter: well, it definitely looks like the hurricane is about to undergo rapid intensification. in fact, it's in the beginning stages of that. i thought it was going to happen last night but it did pull in a little bit of dry air on the southern side. it's also interacting with a weak upper level low just off to its southwest. it had a little bit of increased wind shear overnight that kept the intensification at a steady rate rather than the rapid

intensification i think we are about to see. as you can see on satellite, it has a clear eye that's forming. it has the very high towers wrapping all the way around that eye, it's beginning to constrict. pressure is falling first, then we will see wind speed increase as a response to the pressure fall. the last measurement as of 11:00 a.m., the pressure was down to 992 millibars. i do anticipate that in time for the next advisory it's going to be upgraded to a major hurricane, at least based on the satellite, with that central dense overcast wrapping all the way around, it looks like this is about to rapidly intensify as we predicted. neil: you say rapidly intensify, we are talking about a big storm, a physically large swath of the storm. how does that complicate matters? reporter: well, the storm is relatively large, if you are to compare it to a supercell storm or tornado but in terms of hurricanes, this is a relatively compact storm. it is increasing in size. we do expect it to continue to increase in size. but in terms of being a very

large tropical cyclone, i think that this one is more of a compact, extremely intense variety and in terms of rapid intensification, we are going to see the bottom fall out in terms of the pressure but it's moving off to the northwest at about ten miles an hour, so even though it is intensifying, the storm is moving steadily but slowly off to the northwest and that's why landfall or the impact here in eastern florida is still days out. it looks like the latter half of the weekend is the earliest time those tropical storm force winds could begin to arrive and some of the models are predicting a worst case scenario with this intensifying major hurricane hitting the brakes on approach to eastern florida and that means these deadly conditions will potentially impact eastern florida for hours, even days into early next week. some of the models are still showing a potential recurve right at the coast of a consensus, some of the models are showing the turn to the north right up the spine of the florida peninsula as it comes to a screeching halt, so major flooding is going to be an issue in addition to those standard impacts, the potentially deadly

impacts from a major hurricane in eastern florida, but it does like look this storm is at first going to pass through the northwestern part of the bahamas, possibly very close to the freeport area. i was looking up flights and it looks like tonight is going to be the last opportunity to fly out or into the bahamas before they shut down those flights, but it certainly does look like dangerous conditions will arrive first in the northwestern portions of the bahamas on sunday, then here in eastern florida, likely on monday as that storm starts to come to a screeching halt potentially right over the coastline. neil: thank you very much, reed. be safe yourself. all right. well, florida of course is a very densely populated state as well, i believe 42 million people live there and a lot of real estate, to put it mildly. expensive real estate, at that. the property damage potential is humongous to american property casualty insurance association's jessica hannah. always hard to quantify a storm we don't know yet or certainly, the impact yet, but we do know that it's hitting an area that

is among the most crowded in the united states, and also real estate wise, the most expensive. so what do you see here? >> thanks so much for having me. this storm as you just heard is getting really big and really scary, and that means that we are expecting devastating winds and rain and that also means a lot of coastal flooding, and the flooding could easily move inland. flooding is not just a coastal problem. when you think about just how extensive these storms can be, fema estimates that for just one inch of water in your home, causes $27,000 in damage. neil: you know, i'm curious, is it too late if you hear about this, if you don't have insurance or obviously by law, you have to have flood insurance in certain areas, but is it too late to get it now? >> yes, it's really too late at this point to change your insurance coverage. but i will give you three tips

that you can still do now. first, create your evacuation plan. don't forget your pets. so sadly, we hear terrible tragedies of animals that are left behind and stranded for days, if not weeks. remember that the evacuation is going to be even more complex this weekend with traffic even more unpredictable, with the holiday weekend travel, roads like i-10, i-95, i-4 are going to be extra unpredictable. you saw the big florida state/boise state opening football game moved from jacksonville to tallahassee. that means traffic patterns are going to be especially challenging to navigate. number two, there's still time to do a home inventory. smartphones make this really easy. take video, take pictures of items in your home. this is for not only homeowners', but also for renters who have insurance. make sure you save them in a cloud. if you have any original receipts that will really help with the recovery process.

then last but not least, don't forget to secure your home. clear your yard of debris. something really small like a bird feeder can become a wind borne missile in the middle of a storm and cause massive damage. neil: i didn't think of that but you're probably right. everything becomes a weapon when the winds become like this. jessica, thank you very, very much. >> thank you so much. neil: we've got a travel expert with us now on what issues travelers will face if they still intend to go to florida or maybe leave florida. what's the latest? >> well, we are seeing people get very proactive this year. airlines are canceling flights in advance. if your flight has been affected often you will be able to receive some kind of waiver or ability to make a cancellation without the heavy fees that typically apply. neil: it's one thing to go ahead and try to rebook a flight but

the new flight you have might not be as cheap as the one you just lost, right? >> yes, that can be a consideration. one thing that i will say is that you should definitely contact your airline directly. what we have seen is that airlines like jetblue, southwest, united, they have all come out saying they are willing to help people who have been affected. it really just depends on the days that you are actually planning to travel. so it's going to be different for every single person. if you are someone who is sitting at home and feels like they might have a case, definitely reach out because they are ready to help. neil: how far do these vouchers go? what if you are in the northwest of the state and i explained the hub-and-spoke airport system we have in this country, your flight might be affected by that. how do you play that? >> that's a really good question. last year when it came to florence, we saw that 700 flights were canceled in the u.s. because of it. what we could see this year is

if flights are not able to get out of the impacted area, it could lead to some additional ripple effects throughout the country. i think this is really why airlines are trying to get ahead of it, move their planes out of the dangerous areas so that there isn't as much impact for people who are traveling in areas that aren't going to be hit by the storm. neil: for the airlines that have everyone else repositioning, we forget trains as well, but is it just safe to say whether it ultimately hits florida directly as some models show that, should you just avoid the southeast in general? what do you think? >> i would say if you haven't booked travel to the southeast for this time period, i definitely would recommend staying away from it. the easiest thing to do is just to avoid the area if you can. so if you are planning to get away for the holiday, labor day,

just try and stay a little closer to home if you haven't already booked your travel. neil: wise words. thank you very much for taking the time. >> thank you. neil: all right. well, wall street seems to be heeding our advice here. they've left. i don't know if they are going to florida but volume is very very light today because at least at the new york stock exchange and some of the other places, the financial community, they are trying to make a long weekend. that can sort of make things a little more volatile than would normally be the case. the dow is up about 42 points right now. now, i should also stress here that a lot of this is built on the whole trade issue. most of the information we're getting is that talks are still scheduled, that effective communications are still on. that's coming from the chinese foreign ministry, that the chinese are not planning to retaliate but in the middle of that, concerning news here that consumer confidence slipped a little bit here. in fact, the sentiment now, the worst it's been in two years. still high, but the amount of the drop, the severity of the

drop, the highest we've seen, the most severe we have seen since 2012. the markets this week are up, interrupting what had been a four-week losing streak if that holds but it would take a herculean leap, another 2% runup for all the major averages to end the month of august in positive territory. more after this. ♪

from the 5am wakers, to the 6am sleepers. everyone uses their phone differently and in different places. that's why xfinity mobile created a wireless network that auto connects you to millions of secure wifi hot spots. and the best lte everywhere else. xfinity mobile is a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. click, call or visit a store today.

neil: it's always dicey when you try and follow sentiment because it's really just asking people what their mood is like and depending on your family, that could change a lot, depending on if they let the dog out, just a lot of volatility to it. having said that, though, it did fall by the biggest amount we have seen since 2012 and it is in and out of a two-year low

right now. not that the overall number is bad. by the way, this is on the heels of a report we had out this week that shows more and more americans are getting concerned about the breadth and sustainability of this recovery. i think 37% think the economy will get worse versus 31% think it will get better. again, it's a moving figure. let's get our panel to deal with all of this. i'm talking about john lonski, mary childs and connell mcshane, who will have a special show 9:00 p.m. eastern time on sunday concerning china. there's been some news there. he's been there many times, all that. connell, i will begin with you on this sentiment stuff. some people are just worried about the trend, the trend has been worrisome that whatever volatility you see, it checks that. >> right.

deferring to john on these economic indicators and what they actually mean -- neil: i deliberately avoided it. >> to me it makes perfect sense to see in july at least the consumers spending numbers still ramping up. low unemployment, people still feel generally pretty good about their own situation. but the most recent consumer sentiment numbers trending down because what's been in the news and that's been the tariff war, the trade war with china, and the back and forth and the uncertainty that that's created. i think last friday was, i don't know if tipping point is probably too strong of a term, but the tweets from the president last friday did get a lot of people thinking what's really going on here, going after companies, saying things are going to change in a big way, it's not just a tit for tat on tariffs, then of course that calmed down on monday. but the larger point was people are uncertain. people don't know what's next. for now, good. future, not so sure. neil: you always remind me of the many years that consumers spending, that's two-thirds of the economy, whatever, and if they are even a little less optimistic, that's a problem. is it a problem?

>> consumer spending was very strong for the month of july. it came solid up .4% despite all these trade problems. i think on a monthly basis, consumer spending is growing more rapidly in 2019 than it did for the same period in 2018. sure, you got to be concerned about the drop in consumer sentiment. but that i think is mostly the byproduct of all this equity market volatility. wh and what seems to be rudderless leadership on the economic front. people are getting tired of the tweets, getting tired of these deep drops in the equity market. neil: you are so going to get tweets. mary, when you talk to traders and all that, is it their sense that look, volatile times, we're just going to step back, we don't know what's going to happen here but we know there's uncertainty on trade, we know we go up and down based on whatever the latest sentiment is on trade but we won't be adding a lot to

this. >> i think that's right. you mentioned earlier this does in itself create a little more volatility. the idea that people step back and trading might get a little bit thinner. people always say august is such a slow month and it's never, ever, ever true. everyone goes on vacation, they're like it will be fine. so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy in a way because it's a curse, maybe, where people leave the desk and the trading starts to gap out and that creates kind of a lot more uncertainty, and the more people step back, the more you do kind of -- it's just kind of a cycle. >> the market is going to be much more keenly focused on next friday's release of the august employment report, because that employment report will either validate this drop in consumer sentiment or it will shrug it off completely. neil: consumer sentiment is like an instant read. it's more recent, right? >> yeah. you know, in july, it was interesting with the consumer spending report, we had a drop in savings, a big jump by consumer spending.

the important thing to remember, too, is that we have had a relatively high personal savings rate. that gives consumers something to draw on, 8%. not that long ago, it was on the 4% or 5%, that's pretty good so that improves the outlook. on the savings side, over the past three months, real consumer spending a year ago, up 2.7%. real disposable income, after tax income, is up faster, 3.2%. >> the things people are concerned about makes sense. it's not the most alarming thing in the world but people look at headlines every day of the week on tariffs and what might happen on trade, to say as people did in this survey, we are not so sure about what our buying attitudes are about something we might buy for the home, for example, an appliance or some piece of technology for your house, and because you are hearing the news there may be tariffs now that affect consumer products, i mean, that again, that makes sense that your sentiment would shift that way. whether to john's point, the buying attitudes and the actual spending follows, we just don't know yet. the spending numbers again are quite strong still. >> with these very low interest rates, mortgage yields, my

goodness, they are about 3.5% right now. if we do have some stabilization on the trade front, some absence of bad news, troubling news, that sends the market sharply lower -- neil: important distinction there. the absence of bad news. >> yeah, that would be very important. that would give effect to these very low mortgage yields. housing seems to be lagging behind what you ordinarily think would be happening, given the drop in -- neil: i see a lot of for sale signs. they have cobwebs on them. houses are tnot moving in a variety of price points. >> i haven't seen data but anecdotally it feels like there has been so much discounting among retailers, offering services all across the board. as a consumer, i'm curious to see how that affects corporate profits. you may have this concentration -- neil: in other words, the top line is fine. >> exactly. exactly. >> profits have been disappointing of late. that has to change kquickly if e are going to avoid further

reductions in capital spending and the start of outright reductions in staff. >> this whole point about no bad news is basically what we have had this week. all this back and forth whether it's a call, but the larger point is whatever happened, whether there were high level phone calls or the president just realized he went too far last friday with the language on twitter, something happened over last weekend. we got to calm things down a little bit and for a week, things have calmed down a little bit. as long as that kind of talk stays out of -- [ speaking simultaneously ] neil: we are grateful the chinese didn't retaliate. >> i don't think anything fundamentally changed. we don't know if anything's changed all summer in the negotiations with china and the united states. at least on a fundamental basis, where one side said i'm willing to give this. we don't know if any of that has happened. neil: we have not budged in 18 or 19 months since this all started, the trade war. we are effectively where we were then in the market. >> exactly. i think that one thing that kind of concerns me with the latest

updates and the back and forth about did this call happen or not, what's the content, is there's this outstanding question, like he's a good negotiator, this is going to go fine, he can do it, but if you start to have like you can't trust what he's saying -- >> that's right. >> if he undermines his own credibility as that negotiator and answers that question -- >> which is what last friday was about. you heard that from a lot of wall street investors, i was on board with all this, i like the tax cuts, like the regulation, i like the sentiment on china, i like what the president's trying to do there, but wait, what is this stuff about telling companies what to do and all that kind of thing, and then saying to mary's point about okay, can we really trust what the president's saying that is factual and accurate, then you have a credibility problem and trying to invest in that atmosphere. it's difficult. >> in the end, with the trade war, it matters so much if the economy was as fundamentally strong as some claim. if profitability was growing, rapidly growing by at least 10% annually. that's not the case. that's why the trade war

matters. because domestically, when we look at profitability in business sales, we're not doing as well as we would like to. neil: but we are in lockstep, i always called this, like an abusive relationship with trade, that the -- to all of your point, the slightest good news, the markets pounce on it. bad news, like what you were saying last friday when you were here, crazy. >> it's lack of leadership on the trade front. we're not getting the type of leadership we want. that's troubling markets and businesses and consumers. neil: you are all going to be getting some nasty tweets. in the meantime, in the meantime, the president is pressing general motors right now to move back to america. this kind of follows on what connell was talking about, about whether they should do business in china and all of this. now he's targeting general motors. what to make of that, after this.

i'm off to college. i'm worried about my parents' retirement. don't worry. voya helps them to and through retirement... dealing with today's expenses ...while helping plan, invest and protect for the future. so they'll be okay? i think they'll be fine. voya. helping you to and through retirement. - in the last year, of cybercrime every second. when a criminal has your personal information,

they can do all sorts of things in your name. criminals can use ransomware, spyware, or malware to gain access to information like your name, your birthday, and even your social security number. - [announcer] that's why norton and lifelock are now part of one company, providing an all in one membership for your cyber safety that gives you identify theft protection, device security, a vpn for online privacy, and more. and if you have an identity theft problem, we'll work to fix it with our million dollar protection package. - there are new cyber threats out there everyday, so protecting yourself isn't a one time job, it's an ongoing need. now is the time to make sure that you have the right plan in place. don't wait. - [announcer] norton 360 with lifelock. use promo code get25 to save 25% off your first year and get a free shredder with annual membership. call now to start your membership or visit lifelock.com/tv

neil: all right. it is very close to category 3 storm. they are looking at dorian maybe by tomorrow, on sunday at the latest, a category 4 storm. so it's a monster here. again, heading toward one of the most populated, densely populated states in the country, 22 million people live in florida. also among the most pricey real estate there. rick reichmuth has been following this very very closely. what are we looking at? >> you know that 22 million people, the last time, when hurricane andrew hit florida, the population has increased by like 50%. a lot of people live there, especially on the eastern seaboard who haven't gone through this kind of a storm in the past. let me show you a map here that there's a lot going on here. we will use this meteorologically in forecasting. yesterday the storm was being battered a bit at least on one side of it, and it's right here, it was this little disturbance, that dark air, that was kind of some upper level winds, it was

kind of ripping the southwestern side of the storm apart, inhibiting it from growing a lot. now in these last few images, see that darkness moves away. that little disturbance has pulled away from the storm. now it looks like there's absolutely nothing in its way from additional strengthening over the next couple days. when you look at this visible satellite image, around 11:00 this morning, which was when the last advisory came out, a very clear eye has started to develop here. that's the visible satellite. we can look at an infrared satellite, it detects how cold the cloud tops are, and this is starting to look very textbook very strong hurricane. now, one thing right now is it's a pretty small hurricane. hurricane force winds only extend out about 25 miles from that center. so where it comes ashore, if in fact it comes ashore, we will be talking about a lot of damage right in that really isolated spot. that said, by the time it gets here, i think the storm itself will grow in size and the hurricane wind field will also

spread out a lot, so we will be talking about pretty significant damage. now, still uncertainty, unfortunately, on where it's going to make this right-hand turn. unfortunately, because florida is a pretty narrow peninsula here, a difference of maybe a ten-mile one direction or another direction, it's going to have really big impacts localized for people in these areas. so one possibility still is it cuts across florida, goes into the gulf and makes a second landfall, probably florida panhandle, if that scenario happened. one possibility of it skirting the coast and going up and making landfall across georgia and the carolinas, still in play. best possibility or the most likely possibility is making landfall across the florida peninsula and then making its turn and cutting up somewhere here inland. that would cause the storm to weaken a little but would cause a massive problem all across the eastern seaboard. sometimes we talk about storms just being a flooding event or

storm surge or wind event. this one has the possibility to be all three and that's why we are so concerned for florida. neil: thank you very, very much. rick reichmuth following all of this. we have a lot more coming up, including what's happening on the markets. this is the last trading day for the month of august here. even with the successful week we have been having, there's about another 2% to this. the major averages will be down. more after this. at fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. that's why, your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today.

neil: all right. up 30 points on the dow. what's going on in the new york stock exchange, where i guess a lot of people have already kind of left town. gerri willis there. gerri: well, you got that right. a lot of people, kyou could thrw a bowling ball and not hit anybody at all. i want to talk about monthly numbers because the dow is up, the s&p and nasdaq down, but if you look at the month, what you see, well, so far, not so great. all in the red as you can see right here. three major averages down nearly 2%, the nasdaq down two and change, nearly 3%. let's get into depth on this, right, because the dow is down 475 points for the month but you know, that level, 500 points, ain't what she used to be, right? on black friday, the big selloff in 1987, it was 500 points but it was 22% of the market at the time. this is just 1.77% of the market and a lot of traders down here

telling me hey, the news is not all bad. look at how strong these stocks are despite intense conversations about a possible recession, about trade and still, you know, you have markets that are hanging in there pretty well. as a matter of fact, if you look at just the last week, rather than the month, we're positive. so i want to mention that. i had a trader tell me this morning investors have everything plus the proverbial kitchen sink thrown at them. with one day left, they're down just a bit. before i go, united airlines moments ago announcing it would extend flight cancellations for boeing 737 max jets. that jet remains grounded, as you know. we have had a lot of rumors about when it will come back, but united airlines going to keep those 737 max jets grounded for the remainder of -- until november. backgerri, thank you very, very much. meanwhile, sean, i have noted that some of the etfs pegged

gold or silver or a lot of other commodities have had a wonderful month, double digit gains for a couple of them. but that's been the leader here. what's your sense of things? >> well, thanks, neil, for having me on. it's good to be with you. i think that's the fear trade, if you will. with what's going on in the markets, the headline of the month being the inverted yield curve. as i think about that, the investing highway is littered with the carcasses of those who say the words it's different this time. but i am actually going to say it might be different this time. the yield curve's inversion has less to do with normal yield curve inversions in this environment, i believe, than what's going on globally. if you look at history, typically when we invert on our yield curve, our yields are lower than global bond yields. that's not true today. so i think it's more a case of people buying treasuries as a safety play, sort of like what

you led with with the commoditi commodities, gold and silver etfs. one last interest rate story that's worth hearing, we now have a higher yield on the s&p 500 than we have on the 30-year u.s. treasury bond. when that has happened in the past, somewhere between 75% and 80% of the next 12-month returns have been positive and some of those returns have been spectacular. so you have to throw that in with this analysis today as well. neil: all right. the dividends you get in the market eclipse that of the fixed rate investment and even the volatility stocks, you make some dough on it. but is that going to be the play going forward, dividend plays here? >> i mean, that sounds like you're kind of racing against the clock, right? you hear so much anxiety about this potential, the yield curve inversion, almost always preages a recession, however much weight you want to give that, there's this feeling that something is coming and do you really want to say i will clip this coupon for

the next 12 months, then sell it at just the right moment before everyone else notices that it's time to sell it, then the timing of that, don't try to do that. >> doesn't history show us equities can do well in the time leading up to an economic downturn, whether the downturn turns into a recession or not. maybe that's the point. [ speaking simultaneously ] >> the stock market can still do well. >> are you making a very good point, because the start of a yield curve inversion very often occurs 12 to 18 months before the actual arrival of a recession. you do have this opportunity of having some pretty big gains on the equity side. i don't know if it will be true this time around. i have my doubts. i think it's important that at some point, the fed goes ahead, cuts rates by enough to get rid of this inverted yield curve, bring short-term rates down to levels that are closer to what we see in other advanced economies, europe has a 0% overnight, you know, fed funds rate, their version of fed funds in japan is slightly negative.

neil: i would worry, i don't know from your vantage point, you are seeing forget about whether the one is inverted or not, they are all very low, to your earlier message, and that tends to reflect just kind of a so-so world. i'm wondering if -- there's not a whole lot of wiggle room to boost that. how does that play for the markets? >> well, i think what's going on in the markets is that the u.s. continues to be the place to be. you know, we have a very -- i still think a relatively strong economy. i think the earnings that we just saw reported for the second quarter were above consensus and a little bit of a surprise on the upside. neil: why are we following europe to lower rates to imitate them? >> well, i think it's a bigger story than just interest rates. neil: i know. i know. >> you have money flowing into the ten-year. see, there's a secondary effect on this that affects our economy beyond that. that is those folks are buying dollars which in effect pumps up the value of the dollar, and

that's potentially more dangerous in my view than where interest rates are, which is why i believe we need to cut the rates to get back in line with everybody else to take this carry trade, foreigners buying u.s. securities, out of the market to give us a chance with our economy. neil: you worried? >> i am concerned. but i'm not horribly worried at this point in time. we are still seeing growth by consumer spending. that's very important. i think we can still see these very low mortgage yields, very low borrowing costs, provide an important lift to the u.s. economy. by the way, very low interest rates, the fact that you have a ten -- a 30-year treasury yield under the s&p 500 dividend yield tells me there should be more than enough liquidity around to prevent any seizing up of credit markets. we got problems with rating revisions, with a high yield group. what we don't have the b-aa credits. we oddly enough have more upgrades than downgrades. lower grade investment grade,

nice yields, that's an attractive place to be. i don't see any problems near-term. neil: i was kind of hoping for a shorter answer. >> okay. neil: all right. i want to thank everybody here. sean, thanks for a good overlay of where we stand here. anybody's guess where september goes but august could end up being kind of flat. for the month. for the month. meanwhile, i'm going to pick connell's brain on this after this, because he's been in hong kong, been in china, and they are expecting protests now that are apparently back on in hong kong even though they said they weren't going to have them. until they heard that more dissidents were arrested when one leader was released. they didn't like that. now they are saying you know those protests we said we were going to put off? ther babyiy're back on. after this. we call it the mother standard of care.

it's something we take personally, and believe in passionately. it's the idea that if our mothers were diagnosed with cancer, how would we want them to be treated?

that's exactly how we care for you. with answers and actions. to hear your concerns, quiet your fears, lift your spirits. with teams of cancer experts and specialists, delivering advanced treatment options and compassionate support every step of the way. all here in one place, with one purpose. to fight your cancer, together. that's the mother standard of care. this is how we inspire hope. this is how we heal. cancer treatment centers of america. appointments available now. neil: you know, it seems all we cover is debt. renegotiating debt a little earlier, last hour, and now hearing that student loan debt

at $1.6 trillion has never been higher and a lot of these same kids are going to school this year and wondering if they can ever make enough to pay it off. fox news correspondent jackie heinrich with more on that. >> the higher part of higher education is taking on a different meaning. student debt across the country is twice what it was ten years ago and affects 44 million americans. this report caaims to break dow who is suffering the most. financial product comparison website lendedu compared costs from about 1,000 colleges and they say students in the northeast shoaled tulder the gr burden with connecticut topping that list. on average, students can plan to graduate with more than $38,000 in the red there. other states with the most indebted grads include new hampshire, rhode island, pennsylvania and delaware. on average, more than $34,000 in debt. if you are a prospective student looking to stay below the 30 grand mark, write off new england. analysts behind the study say

the northeast has the highest concentration of private universities which are usually more expensive than state schools, and bring up the average cost. >> when students are borrowing, they need to think critically about what the debt will cost them when they graduate, what their monthly payment will be, how much they will be earning so that they can think critically about can i afford my monthly payment when i graduate. but then for ten years after that. >> more than half the total student loan debt was racked up in the last ten years. in 2009, student borrowers owed more than $700 billion to banks. today, that number is $1.6 trillion. other concerning trends, new york fed says about 10% of student debt is 90 days past due. the pew research center says about a third of young graduates with a bachelors degree says the cost was not worth the benefit. neil: thank you very, very much. meanwhile, we were telling you earlier the president, i think a

week ago today, u.s. companies in china should get out of there, rethink their strategy, a lot of people said it was offputting. he kind of pounded it again today, saying that gm should reconsider a lot of its plans in china, move them over here. the pressure's on, he says. gm responded by saying you know, we are hiring about the same number of people we were before. we have about the same number of people working with us as when you first assumed office, but of course, it's kind of hitting here. connell mcshane, on this development, it is just exactly what the president was arguing last week. so he's not letting go of this. >> what's funny about it is, though, what the president often says about how companies do business, use a different company like bmw, you should make your cars here, they do make many of their cars in south carolina, this is the reverse, where general motors does make many of the cars it sells in china, in china, which allows them to avoid the tariffs, of

course. in we are going to be in a situation where a large multinational company like general motors can't make the products it's selling in country, in country, then we have a much larger conversation which by the way, we talk a little bit on the special you mentioned over the weekend, this idea of de-coupling of economies. mostly in the context of technology. but if you are going to say to auto companies you have to make a car here and ship it over to china, that changes everything on the cost side. look what tesla is doing. they had to raise prices because they don't make them yet in china. neil: it rattled the markets last week, this idea we like what you are trying to do, play hardball with china, but now you are getting into how we do our business and that's scary. >> exactly. that goes to the undermining credibility point. this is supposed to be a free market republican and this is not a free market behavior at all. corporations are not only confused and freaked out, they are kind of offended, like this is not at all -- like how am i supposed to re-engineer my supply chain because you issued a tweet that maybe was an executive order, like is there even a lever you can pull here. neil: find alternatives, some of

them did, like mexico. then he hit mexico. >> exactly. you can't predict where the next hit is going to be. they are already having problems sourcing new supply chains and where you can go if you're not in china. there has been a lot of migration of supply chain to vietnam but vietnam is already showing signs of labor market tightness. it -- >> 100 million people in vietnam. 1.4 billion in china. that's the numbers here. i know there are other countries but it won't work for some of these big companies. >> china has a 30-year head start of infrastructure, really good roads, factories that are u.s. safety certified and ready to go. if you want to kind of plug and play, china's always been your place for the past 30 years. that's really tough for some of these countries to play catchup with. neil: i feel for mary barra, though. no matter what she doshes, she can't win on that. >> he's going to go ahead and cite the financial support gm got during the great recession. there's no escaping the fact this was stated previously that businesses do not like increased government regulation. businesses don't like the government to tell them what to

do, that hurts productivity, hurts long-term planning. neil: to the president's point, they pick and choose when they want the government to help them out. >> that's true, but i mean, you have to realize the government still wants to have businesses be independent so that they can go ahead and maximize their long-term performance. neil: more than i guess the number, 13% of u.s. companies have or had operations in china have moved some or all of them out. they are obviously heeding the point. >> probably not a bad idea. just to hedge against whatever the future may bring. but moving all of your operations out of china is a completely different, you know, proposition than saying maybe we should diversify, move some business, like go pro, for example, the cameras they sell in the u.s., they moved those to mexico. you know what, that might make sense if you can make them in mexico. it's a shorter distance to bring them into the united states. but if you are apple and you have this, for years and years, this huge business, building your phones in china, moving that, all of it like this, just

can't happen. maybe you move a little bit but, you know, it just takes time. there are consequences to it. neil: we get a deal with china but too late to help with china. >> that could very well be the case. talking, we don't want to lose sight of the fact there's a lot of designers, lot of engineers, people in marketing working in detroit and silicon valley that benefit greatly from our relationship with china, benefit greatly from the fact that they have these manufacturing facilities in china. neil: all right. i want to thank you. an update on dorian right now. they are ready to say it's very close to a category 3 storm by tomorrow, potentially category 4 storm. again, 22 million people live in florida, among the nation's most pricey real estate. leaving that aside, this is a monster of a storm. an update after this.

do you have concerns about mild memory loss related to aging? prevagen is the number one pharmacist-recommended memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. they give us excellent customer otservice, every time.e. our 18 year old was in an accident. usaa took care of her car rental, and getting her car towed. all i had to take care of was making sure that my daughter was ok. if i met another veteran, and they were with another insurance company, i would tell them, you need to join usaa because they have better rates, and better service. we're the gomez family... we're the rivera family... we're the kirby family, and we are usaa members for life. get your auto insurance quote today.

to the wait did frowe just win-ners. prouders everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy a new samsung note. click, call or visit a store today.

neil: all right. this is the gazillion dollar question here. are there going to be protests this weekend in hong kong or not? we were told hong kong protesters had planned to put it off. now concerns that after a number of protesters were arrested even though a leader of the pro-democracy movement was released from prison, that they might be back on. connell mcshane a few weeks ago was there in the region, china as well. what are you hearing? >> this is, like everything else, it's complicated. i think the read-in here, jonathan hunt, who is there now, has been doing some fine reporting for us, is the latest to kind of say according to the people he's talking to that some people might end up in the streets over the weekend. i think the read is the difference in how china's been handling it and are we about to take another step. so this is 13 straight weeks of these protests. our reporting was in the very early stages of it. and china at least publicly was all but ignoring what was going on in hong kong. they were kind of allowing it to happen. when the protests groups would apply for a permit which they

were doing, as you would here in new york or anywhere else, they would approve that permit and did every week, week after week. now this week was the first time they denied the permits, said no, no, no, it's going to be unsafe, we can't allow you to protest. then you look at the media coverage and remember we talked about it at the time when you went from hong kong and drove into mainland china, there was no media coverage at all of these protests. they censored everything. in the past few weeks now, instead of censoring they are spinning. they are trying to get a handle on the story. the troop rotation reported the last few days from chinese troops coming in, which on the surface, isn't the oddest thing in the world, but there has been no confirmation yet as far as i know of any troops that were stationed in hong kong, chinese military actually rotating out when the new ones came in. so if that's the case, that would indicate some sort of buildup. but the fact is we just don't know. you know, it's interesting, if they end up in the streets over the weekend it won't be the official protest movement but that doesn't stop the violence, of course. neil: last time we were here we were talking about at its core, what is china. does it want to be an economic juggernaut, very different than it was 30 years ago during

tiananmen square, or does it go back to the default of being a military and sometimes ruthless military power that will take matters into its own hands? >> right. this is highlighting this kind of huge dissonance and intellectual, like difficulty reconciling things. st they have this free market plea, we're capitalists, one country, two systems but you see these things are actually in some ways apparently impossible to do at the same time. for corporations in america, too, you have to make a choice, which side you come down on. participation is becoming kind of an inherently political act. neil: every time i watch this kind of stuff, i'm donald trump, it helps make my case. >> i think it does. i think it warns us that trump is not bargaining with a democracy. he's bargaining with an entirely different type of political system. neil: in other words, china can lie to these guys, you think they're going to be honest with us. >> i doubt it.

we have to be very careful as to how much confidence, how much faith we have in promises made by the chinese. >> the president has indicated, you know, rightly so, it appears, you're not cutting any trade deal until you know, at least have some transparency about what's going on there. neil: what if they attack these people? protesters? >> well, a couple things. on one hand you would say all bets are off. on the other hand, i think the consequence of that might be this whole idea that we can't somehow line up the rest of the world against china has been a problem and a criticism of the administration. whole world would start lining up, you would think. neil: all bets are off at that point, right? >> right. right. i think if that does come to pass, there would be a strong global response. but i do think, you know, that would be a real huge shift. neil: to put it mildly. mary, final word. connell, thank you and certainly john. we are following some news concerning google. an update after this. at fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. that's why, your cash automatically goes into

a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. managingaudrey's on it.s? eating right and staying active? on it! audrey thinks she's doing all she can to manage her type 2 diabetes and heart disease, but is her treatment doing enough to lower her heart risk? maybe not. jardiance can reduce the risk of cardiovascular death . . ketoacidosis is a serious side effect that may be fatal. a rare, but life-threatening bacterial infection... ...in the skin of the perineum could occur. stop taking jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this bacterial infection,... ...ketoacidosis, or an allergic reaction. do not take jardiance if you are on dialysis or have severe kidney problems. taking jardiance with a sulfonylurea

or insulin may cause low blood sugar. lower a1c and lower risk of a fatal heart attack? on it with jardiance. ask your doctor about jardiance. you wouldn't accept from any one else. why accept it from your allergy pills? flonase relieves your worst symptoms including nasal congestion, which most pills don't. flonase helps block 6 key inflammatory substances. most pills only block one. flonase.

neil: dorian officially a category 3 storm. it could be a category 4 with winds of 125 miles an hour within 24 hours. there is nothing to block it. now to charles payne. charles: appreciate it. love the tie. neil: thank you, my friend. charles: good afternoon, my friend, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." the market meekly heads into the weekend hoping for the best, as we embrace for hurricane dorian, potential unrest in hong kong an new tariffs. some think new tariffs may be avoided. some say the impact won't be as awful as the worst case hype. hopefully we say the same about hurricane torian next week, you about it is gaining steam as it heads into the florida coast. we're missing a lot of key factors keeping america on top. i will go in depth with the data

you won't hear anywhere