extremely well. market, we're up about 40 or 50 points all day long. we're still about 130 points from the all-time high. but we are still higher this friday lunchtime. time's up. neil, it's yours. neil: thank you very much, stuart. we're looking at the 8th straight day of gains if it continues for the dow. 130 point away from record highs reached in the dow middle of july. we could be revisit them, at very least teasing them as we've had all day. we'll keep an eye. democrats are saying president is losing on trade but is an interim deal better than no deal at all? the president promising a substantial tax cut. in case you didn't hear, we're at record deficit. we have record deficit a trillion bucks with one more month in the fiscal year to go. whether we get something like that. there are a lot of hints and teases out of the white house

and out of beijing. edward lawrence with the latest. reporter: china added two more items, at least two more items from the exemption list for tariffs. that would be soybeans and also pork. the u.s., this would fit in line with a purchase that was confirmed by the u.s. department of agriculture today of soybeans by china and chinese companies, possibly in the future. we could see more pork bought from u.s. farmers. now the president trump says that he exist as large purchase from u.s. farmers by china. the president also adding to the confusion about an interim deal that has been floated. now yesterday the president coming out saying that he would consider it but then in the same breadth the president came back, said, quote i would rather get the whole deal done. u.s. trade representative robert light highser is working on the whole deal now. in fact the deputy level trade delegation team from china will be in the united states next week to have meetings there to set up a meeting in early october between the two heads of the tray team there, trying to

move forward with this. now trade experts say this is progress but it is slow. >> they have opened up the financial sector for wholly owned american companies. they passed this new foreign investment law. they're expanding so-called shanghai free trade zone model to another 10 cities in china. we're still nowhere near, they're going back to what they basically agreed to in early may. reporter: president donald trump has now delayed the increase of tariffs from 25% to 30% on $250 billion worth of chinese imports for 15 days. that is until october 15th. that is goodwill gesture. what is allows the two trade teams to meet to see what concessions u.s. says that were removed could be put back into a trade deal. so these meetings next week, neil, will be very critical for going forwardor the early october meeting between two heads of the trade delegation. back to you. neil: you talked to them but help put gossip to rest is the

president open to interim deal, in other words, something addresses lion's share of big issues, how much more agricultural products they will buy and all that, onerous ones, intellectual property and how to deal with that down the road? reporter: our sources inside the white house says this is not something being pushed. my sources inside the u.s. trade representative's office lighthizer is working towards the entire deal going forward. president's trade strategy is the large deals. the fact we don't have an agreement with the european union right now he won't separate rate agriculture. he want that into a major deal to go forward with entire deal. usmca was not done piecemeal but as a whole unit. the history has been he wants it done as a whole unit. the president adding to the intrigue. he said i guess i would consider it. in the next breadth he said i would rather see the whole deal

done. the administration and their trade policy is to get a whole deal done. that is the way the trade team to my sources is working. neil: i don't know. he says one thing. he does another. i understand he is trying to leave people kind of guessing. they're confused about that thank you very much. we have that as backdrop some pretty good economic news, underpinning the president's notion that our economy is this better shape than the chinese economy. u.s. consumer sentiment jumping to level of 92 in the latest month. that was better than 91 estimate out there. not a huge difference but we've been see a huge confluence of that, with surprising pickup in retail sales, stronger than expected down from the prior month of july, acting as a wind to the markets back for the time-being. about 120 points or so from a record high. pacer etf president sean o'hara. we have gary kaltbaum here as well, jonathan hoenig here. jonathan, end with you, begin

with you, how much trade whether we like to admit it or not is directing this market? >> neil, there is no question. every time we've gotten any hint of a resolution to the trade war and there has been some 13 rounds of talks. you see exactly that, the market responded accordingly. this is self-inflicted wound. whether $6 billion paid by americans in just july alone and 300,000 jobs lost a moody's number as a result of the trade war, this cost every american by some estimates $200,000 per year per family already. there are hints even a interim deal is afoot you see the market respond. that is exactly what you've seen last couple weeks. neil: geir i'm wondering here if the president is opening to bifurcated deal, an interrecommend deal that addresses the low-hanging fruit that a interim deal could push,

he could have done something like that 19 months ago? >> yeah. i'm amazed we've been doing this 19 month at this point in time. neil, i don't think anything comes out by accident. this interim talk was put out there on purpose. i think with all the rhetoric has become less harsh in the last week. and i think it comes down to we're heading towards re-election. i think the president sees every time he puts on tariffs or talks harshly, markets get hit. every time he pulls back markets do better. i think he is learning some lessons here and hopefully we get something done sooner rather than later because i got to tell you it's a long 19 months. it is a pain in the rear for market players also. there is so much uncertainty and the same goes for business. neil: i'm looking at what the president could consider, sean, could you argue that going back to a deal you can get, that addresses really about 90 percent of our problems with the chinese, they don't buy

enough, they don't keep their word, all of that, to put off something that will be much tougher to do because this would have to change their entire dna on intellectual property, and stealing stuff that would be quite an achievement. what has changed it in the last 18, 19 month we weren't going to accept anything short of a big, major, totally new constructed deal and relationship with china. so we backed ourselves probably into a needless corner, what do you think? >> well, thanks for having me, neil. i think you're on to the right side of things. there are trade issues that have an impact on the economy and there is national security issues that have gotten wrapped up into this, the intellectual property stuff. i think, you know, solving it on the, on the economic side and setting that aside may be the way they will ultimately go here. and that would be a big boost for the markets overall. until we get some direction on what's actually going to happen as we get good news the market

goes up, and as we get bad news the market goes down and it makes it difficult for investors. underthe overall economy i think there is lots of good news. i talked in the past when i've been on the refinancing on the consumer side. there is refinancing going on the corporate side. so basically that money will come to the bottom line for these companies which will help boost future earnings. there is lots of good news, low inflation, high employment, wage growth, that is sort of bolster for underlying move we've seen in the markets. neil: market rates have backed up a little bit suddenly this sense of good news. jonathan, you were saying? >> neil, the trump himself said he thought the market would be, kind of hyperbolic, 10,000 points higher if not for the trade war. i think he is right it would be higher if not for the trade war. one the hallmarks is pulling back of business investment. that really fuels the economy. it is not consumer purchasing.

it is business investment. as we said during the obama years, if there could be clarity and certainty something integral as trade with china you would not see only the economic numbers but the market once again start to take off. neil: gary, the president referred to the market five or 10,000 point higher, that the fed botched it, if the fed didn't aggressive raise rates to the degree it did, we would be much better off, do you buy that? >> no. the fed needed to do what they had to do. we were down at 0%. the savers were getting screwed for too long. i have no problem with the fed. turns out the fed not too wrong even here. rates backed up from 1.45. i think we're 1.85 right now. so the fed is really just a little bit away from that. i think we'll get a quarter point drop from them in the next week or so, not a half. i think they're right in line. by the way that is the most important part of the equation the last week that rates have

backed up, indicg all the talk abo recession and depression, it's not happening. when you have half the market has been comatose the last year wake up, talking financials, transports, small caps, that's big news, that is what is driving the market here in the last couple weeks and i suspect will continue to drive it in the months ahead. neil: indeed to your point, we backed up half a percentage point in yield over what, last couple weeks. that is fairly remarkable in of itself. gentlemen, i want to bring your attention to, you caught it last night probably, all these democratic presidential candidates weighing in on the president's trade policies, how they say screwing this up. look at this. >> how do you think about china? we see president trump call president xi both and enemy and a friend? >> president clearly has no strategy. >> he has made a mockery of focused trade policy. >> i agree with those who said this erratic haphazard trade war is hurting american families. >> you have a guy in the

white houser rattic on trade policy. he conducts trade policy by tweet, born out of his fragile eco. >> trump doesn't have a clue. trump thinks trade policy is a tweet at 3:00 in the morning. neil: i was listening to all that of. say of that what you will, the fact of the matter he is taking the chinese on and a key base of the democratic party, union households those who are fed up with being shorter end of the stick when it comes to the chinese, they relate more to the president at least on this one than they do some of their potential standard-bearers. i'm wondering if the candidate got that part of it? this is a very popular issue for the president which surprising looking at poll numbers, his taking chinese, you can argue how he is taking them on but people think it is way overtime we did. >> those states he won, democratic strongholds on back of american blue-collar

workforce they're in line with the president on this and i think, i wouldn't be surprised from a messaging perspective if they all sort of backed up off that a little bit. health care, "medicare for all" is one of the topics they were talking about now carving out special exemptions for unions. those folks who are union members don't want to give up great health care for a government-run plan. this is an area where currently the president is a little ahead of them. this was a big part of this strategy when he ran the last time. i think it is going to be a big part which may be more than anything why he settles a part of it and leaves the national security piece of it to be dealt with after the election. neil: jonathan, real quickly on that, are you in the camp, whatever you feel about the trade war, that some deal, even a lousy deal is better than no deal and the markets will embrace just that if it comes to that? >> neil, it is exactly that. we always run the risk that the market mass priced in that. there is the old adage, buy the rumor sell the fact. neil: right, right.

>> it makes it difficult for environment for investors whether you have millions of dollars or a few hundred dollars, you're not only trying to analyze walmart, exxonmobil, all great american companies but to the democrat point what the next tweet will be, next policy will be. it makes very difficult to invest billions or even couple hundred. that is the environment we're in right now. any deal behooves the market writ large. neil: final word on the subject, thank you very much. quick peek what is happening with the dow where we have 20 component up and dow 3010 are down, of those, five barely budging at all. we should point out 11 sectors right now in and out of positive territory. the only one that is not, energy, materials, minerals sector, not surprising when oil is giving up some ground here but from electronic technology to commercial services retail trade, communications utilities, transportation all up and up a lot. we'll have more after this.

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neil: all right. it's a big issue for democrats who are concerned about the rising cost of health care plans the fact that more americans are opting not to have insurance at all. those numbers have been zooming up a little bit. former texas senator phil gramm, former presidential candidate, telling me some of elizabeth elizabeth warren's plans will make the situation worse. when you include those passively invest, seven out of 10 americans are, they are the ones that will get gouged? >> exactly right. 72% of the pain she will impose on corporate america, come to people that are retired, or very close to retired. neil: if you hit the rich, they suddenly have to get rid of some of their assets unload stocks,

it will boomerang on the big pension funds, teachers, doctors, firefighters, people who invest in the market directly or indirectly. they are the ones that will get gouged. hillary vaughn is in houston with some of the options candidates have been exploring. hey, hillary. reporter: former vice president joe biden joining in the criticism pushing back against progressive policies of "medicare for all." in his first answer on the debate stage, he challenged bernie sanders and elizabeth warren how they will come up with the money to explain for their "medicare for all" plans. >> the senator on my left has not indicated how she pays for it. and the senator has in fact come forward and said how he is going to pay for it but gets him halfway there. someone making 60 grand with three kids, they will end up paying $5,000 more. pay 4% more on income tax. that is reality. that is not a bad idea if you like it. i don't like it.

reporter: biden making the point that people are going to the feel of the cost of these plans no matter what through increased taxes. he challenged sanders on the idea that medicaid for all would also cost union workers in lost wages after they negotiated lower pay in exchange for health insurance benefits from their employers. biden asked bernie if he really thinks companies will give back readily that money to their employees in lost wages? bernie insisted they would have to under his plan but biden shot back saying for a socialist bernie has a lot of confidence in corporate america. neil. neil: interesting. just, throwing it right back in his face. hillary vaughn, thank you very, very much. are donors feeling comfortable with joe biden right now? the popular line i heard in the press today characterizing the debate is that he survived. how long that can help him, that he survived the debate, rather than wins it out right or scores

big points might be enough to close the deal who knows. a big backer, former pennsylvania governor ed rendell. he already announced his support for the former vice president. governor, good to have you. >> hi, neil, how are you? neil: i'm fine. get a sense you heard critiques of joe biden, losing his fastball, i don't know how you feelovernor, closer i get to an age once considered old the less i'm critical on that issue but having said that i'm wondering if you think where there is smoke there's fire? this is such a scrutinized issue with joe biden he has got to be careful? >> well, sure, if you're the front-runner in a political campaign you have always got to be careful. you can't worry so much about making a mistake you lose your mojo. i was happy to see the vice president was feisty last night. he fought back. he did particularly well in the first hour.

he doesn't just have to survive. he has to get a b, b-minus. i thought he did much better than that last night. i thought he did very well. neil: you know maybe owing to his long life, what he refers to a record player a lot of people let's say, you know, younger, much younger will immediately start saying i don't know what you're talking about. it is this moment stood out, governor. i want to play it for you. >> sure. >> i hear this large savings. president saying my friend from vermont thinks that the employer will give you back if you negotiate the union all these years. play the radio, make sure the television, make sure you have the record player on at night, the phone, make sure the kids hear words. >> if you couldn't get it done after sandy hook, why should voters give you another chance. >> i got it done before. i'm the only one up here ever beat the nra. neil: what did you think of all that? >> well, first of all he is absolutely correct. in the crime bill which other

candidates attacked, people forget that there was a ban on assault weapons. there was a ban on high capacity magazines. there was violence against women's act. so he is the only one who beat the nra. he also beat them on the brady bill as he says. good, i'm glad he was feisty, he was proud of his record. he should be. did he make mistakes 40 years in politics? of course he did. i was governor eight years, i made plenty of mistakes during my eight years as governor. that is inevitable. no one is perfect. he has had a terrific record. i think people believe that. interestingly i thought the moderate position did very well last night in the debate. not only through vice president biden but through amy klobuchar, who i thought had the best line of the night, bernie kept saying i wrote the damn bill. amy, i read the damn bill, on page 8 you're taking away private health insurance from people. that makes it a bad bill, not a good bill. i thought the moderate position

had a good day. neil: that is what you want, governor? you don't want to go too, too far left. apparently that message barack obama sent out through surrogates, be careful of overpromising, underpaying what you are promising. he is concerned democrats might grab defeat from the jaws of victory, do you? >> absolutely. i like elizabeth warren, she has been a great senator, bernie has a lot of courage, but someone who says you will take your private health insurance away from 160 million americans, let's assume 60 million don't like their private insurance but 100 million do. you're going to tell them, that we're going to take your private health insurance away, not allowed to have it, we'll put you in a government program? i don't think you can be electable under those circumstances. i think it is very difficult. an uphill battle. that is why people are tending to stick with the vice president. they know him.

he is a known commodity. a stable leader. he will be good for the country. neil: he certainly locked in the record player vote. no doubt about that. governor, always food -- good seeing you. >> we remember the record player. neil: that is when music was music. governor, appreciate it. when the governor and i were chatting dow up 42 points, getting closer and closer to a record. what is propelling it a lot of good news on our side of the globe, not just promising talk about trade. i'll get into that right after this.

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neil: you know the fed decision is coming up next week. i'm still debating, what do i wear? enough about me. what the federal reserve could do, the expectation is for a quarter-point cut. the president wants to see a lot more about that. he wants to see quantitative easing removed. when the fed buys up every note and bond it could find bringing

longer-term rates down like early days after the meltdown. i don't know if that will happen. let's go to the real expert, "barron's" senior editor jack hough. >> i thought you were telling me what to wear, neutral colors, that's right. >> we'll cut but not in an emergency fashion. the economy, there are signs the economy is stablizing here. we're not in a downward spiral towards recession that people thought. so it is not an emergency but there is a big disconnect between rates here in the u.s. and what we're seeing abroad. they're much lower. we have tons of bonds with negative yields overseas. if we're not careful that could cause a flight of capital to the u.s. make the dollar too strong and hurt manufacturers at a time they're already struggling. we don't want that. neil: the higher rates, not a whole lot but i get your point are a reflection of the strong economy we have, if we want to mimic them we're mimicking

losers i'm just wondering -- i understand how this would help manufacturers. longer term there is a debate about that. i wonder if we end up hurting ourselves trying to i am imitate them. >> i don't think we need to go to negative yields or down to zero. people expect a quarter-point cut, maybe another later in the year. neil: with the economy strong as it is we'll cut rates to avoid the advantage they might have for trade? if they did have such an advantage they would be going gangbusters, right? >> it is not a rip-roaring economy we have. it is much stronger on the consumer side than the manufacturing side and i think the concern here is the strength of dollar. neil: so, let's say they cut a quarter point, and you're right, you've been prescient about the fed zigs and zags, they cut another quarter point, they don't do anything about that for a while, play that out for me. there is still a differential between much of europe and us,

much of asia and us, so what happens? >> look i think the stimulative effect much cutting has long since gone to your point. i don't think you see a sudden jump in economic activity here. for investors people watching your show, the important point the stock market looks like a good deal relative to everything else under the sun, relative to nd what the economy goes for consumers which are all important, i ask two questions, what is value of their homes and their jobs? the answer is pretty positive. consumer economy will be strong. stock market continues to rise. i will hold you to that, young man. we'll see what you're wearing next week and i'll copy it. always good have youing, jack, have a good weekend. >> thank you. neil: the president is vowing tax cuts next year. there is this little issue of not much support even in his own party doing that. it is a good goal but where it

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neil: if at first you don't succeed, president indicating he wants to roll out middle class tax cuts next year. there is issue whether he can do that right now, given make up on capitol hill, that he can't count on much democratic support. even within his own party he has got issues. there is the issue of the deficit over a trillion dollars.

we have another month left of our fiscal year, don't we? blake burman at the white house on all that. hey, blake. reporter: there is an issue how real all of this is right now, especially considering there really isn't a level of detail being put forth when you hear the uppermost members of the trump administration talk about, including the president, possibility of a tax cut 2.0. here is what i am hearing, speaking from a senior administration official, some options being considered right now, at least on the serious side of things involved with extending tax cuts on the personal side, that are set to run out after 2025, making sure those get extended 2025. that include lowering marginal rates. doubling the standard deduction, with that suspending a personal exemption. also extending salt, the state and local tax, which is capped at $10,000 as you know. those are things neil, already put in place. it is being described, they want

to make sure those get extended past 2025. when talking about timing of this as well, the administration points to maybe later this year, or at some point next year as well in 2020. as you know 2020 being an election year. this is how president trump described it when speaking bit to republicans last night. listen. >> we're working on a tax cut for the middle income people. that is going to be very, very inspirational. it is going to be something that i think is what everyone is really looking for sometime in the next year. it will be very, very substantial tax cut for middle income folks who work so hard. we'll look forward to that. >> neil, probably you remember when the administration rolled out the first tax cuts that got past. 2016, 2017, gary cohn,

president's economic advisor then, came into the briefing room, gave us a one page document of their skeleton, blueprint, this is one thing we want to see happen, the direction we're going to go. they got through most of what they wanted through a republican controlled house and senate. we are a very long ways away from that possibility there, if it even gets to that point, neil. neil: blake, you're very jaded for someone so young. anything could happen. we don't know. reporter: i'll take the so young as a compliment i guess. you're right, as they say around here, we'll see what happens. anything is possible, right? neil: tag line, we'll see, we'll see. thank you very much, blake burman at the white house. well the president is hoping clearly to blake's report if you're offering middle class tax cuts you will tempt the democrats who are not a fan of his tax cuts which they argue are disproportionally targeted at the rich. let's get the read from

democratic strategist david per steen, former ted cruz pollster chris wilson. let me begin with you. is that a potential differentiator for the president, these are all about the middle class, that these will be targeted for and at the middle class? >> you look to last night's debate the fact neither elizabeth warren or bernie sanders were willing to admit the their plans would increase taxes on the middle class which they would. you can see the contrast beginning to formulate it seven at one point, almost simultaneously, donald trump speaking to the republican caucus, calling for tax cuts whereas the democrat debate they are talking about how they will increase taxes. at some point an economist will add up all the different taxes that will be created through all the free stuff democrats are wanting to offer as they stand up to debate and try to give away everything for free, people are going to realize, if they want to pay their taxes they will have to work all the way until christmas. it will be become a very

important contrast to the candidates. i want to point out also one more thing about the debate last night, one thing that was not discussed at all was the economy. i think it shows the power that the economy -- and president has actually taken what in almost every election cycle for president is the most important issue, the growth of the economy, completely off the table. it didn't even come up last night. neil: indirectly it did by bashing the president's approach on china, that jeopardizes that, you're right, it was not a theme. david, i think the president is looking out for guys like you. new dad, who has a lot of bills, a lot of pressures, he is trying to help you out. i'm wondering how grateful you are for that? >> well look, i think that the president is making a smart move here because i think the democratic discussion last night did get into this question and frankly i think why joe biden was strong last night because he was talking about how he would pay for these things. neil: you thought he was strong?

>> i think -- neil: what isour definition of strong? >> his best performance that we've seen. he actually sounded and looked presidential which i've been waiting for him to do a little while. reality -- neil: record player thing all of that? >> made mistakes like everybody else. you know, neil, you've been in the business. neil: i would have said eight-track player. >> there is a clear difference between him and elizabeth warren and in terms of, bernie sanders and those other people, we can't do everything and we need to look out for the middle class. he speaks to that. ultimately a part of it. neil: for democrats to ignore the incentive from the president for looking at middle class tax cut? >> on top of that, if the democrats would actually show one thing they could do with the president, whether it is on this, whether it is on something else or passing trade deal or one of these things, i think that would pay dividends for them to show they are for

something, they accomplished something. i was at a fund-raiser listening to great democratic candidates. they don't have a record to run on. it would really help them. i wish they would look further here to say what can they do to show they're actually producing some results so far with new powers they have in a difficult and divided government. neil: you do have to wonder, chris, the president is espousing these tax cuts. great, a lot of people would like that in congress, fine, but he is looking at a trillion dollar deficit now, we still have another month to go in the fiscal year, it's a record, probably will eclipse if it continues at this pace, the president criticized under his predecessor barack obama. no one talks about this sort of thing. debt is a dull subject but are you worried? >> well i think you have to be but neil, as you know, tax cuts themselves were absolute minor fraction of the deficits. two are false equivalence. neil: that is not ignored. spending issues have gone

ignored. >> it has been. neil: to blast the other side for you know, spending and promising all this stuff and not do anything to rein it in himself. >> it is. think about what we go to giving away free college, free cars, all the other free things that the other democrats are promising. i would agree with david, it would be smart for democrats. neil: he needs all the help he can get. >> for him. i can't believe they get out of bed, i agree with david, it would be good, smart for democrats to work with republicans to accomplish something. whether on tax cuts or cutting spending, peeling deficit back or gun control, to have some sort of record. that is what turns people off. neil: neither is doing it. david? >> increase the frustration on the political system. >> i want to go back to the point on deficits because i think this is important, i have been concerned about this issue for a long time. either people need to start

getting serious about this issue or people, just need to continue pretending we live in happy land. trump, the president does not care about this issue. he said he cared about it. he said he will do it if he has a second term. i don't really believe him. to be fair, to be fair we got to balanced budget under bill clinton and president obama did almost come close to a deal on this, ultimately john boehner walked away from. neil: i think if memory serves me right, they said the president ran away from. bottom line, both sides take blame, not addressing issue. >> it's a broader reflection of this problem we'll kick every problem down the road. we're doing it with climate. we're doing it with you will at different things. no one wants to say a comprehensive issue. neil: not out there. not out there. thank you both very much the dow up 23 points. these guys single-handedly taken a triple-digit rally and cut it by 75%. 'll have more after h this.

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neil: we are working -- wework working to keep the ipo on track. gerri willis at nyse with more. what is going on? reporter: shared space provider wework, making changes to the corporate governance practices made of the ipo coming out the week of september 23rd. they will appoint outside director by year-end. very concerning. adam newman, ceo, his voting rights ratcheted back from 10 votes a share, from 20. cut in half. his wife will not be a successor if he dice in the next 10 years. can you say nepotism. his value dropped to 10 billion from 47 billion. apple shares down after goldman sachs cut the price target to 165.

u.s., that house panel demanding records from the company in antitrust probe. the stock back below one trillion dollar mark. finally pge up 7 1/2% after the company agreed to 11 billion-dollar settlement to resolve insurance claims from insurance carriers from the 2017 wildfires and 2018 campfire. a look going on as we look at ipos and other things. back to you. neil: looking at market, dow itself up 30 points, perspective year-to-date the dow is up 17% this year. nasdaq close to 24%. s&p about 20%. no matter what happens today it is still been a strong market going into today. this would be, if no matter how much it is up 8th straight day we've seen it. we will keep an eye on that. keeping eye on actress felicity huffman. her sentencing today, what she

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neil: all right, actress felicity huffman is being sentenced this afternoon. former federal prosecutor on what she could be looking at. this is actress who spent, what, i think $15,000 to up her daughter's s.a.t. scores, right? >> that's right, yes, that's correct. neil: so, that's a -- i'm not minimizing it, a relatively small amount compared to some of the others who are been fingered by prosecutors. how does that play in terms of a sentencing here?

>> sure. so it is a relatively small amount. she has obviously pled guilty already. she has taken responsibility. she admitted to exchanging this money to boost her daughter's s.a.t. scores. the for sentencing pures, she took responsibility, and relatively minimal amount of money especially compared to some other parents involved, she was giving the money, she was not actually receive it, all that will play in her favor. prosecutors are asking for minimal amount of jail time. i don't see her spending time behind bars. i think more realistically she will get some form of fines, community service and some probation, potentially. i think that is realistically what she could be looking at under the federal sentencing guidelines. there is possible some jail time involved. i don't see it in this case. neil: you don't want to make sweeping generalities here, any judge could go ahead to leap to make an example of people like her, others who have been caught up in this.

that it is not to be tolerated and all that. that sort of thing and sent go? >> certainly. in sentencing one of the tenets judges will look to. what kind of message are they sending to other defendants and the public at large that is a principle can be used. she admitted responsibility early, shown remorse for her actions, relatively limited as far as what she did, it is not necessarily going to cut against her too badly. there could be a idea they want to send a message. there is other parents still choosing to fight this all the way through to trial. so that is going just not be something very comparable to this circumstance. neil: you know it's a little bit outside of your area where you're a true expert, but i just wonder, what it has done to the college application, admissions process? i mean we're going into another fall where that will be a very big theme. i'm wondering if it changed

behavior, altered behavior? a wink and nod, help my kid out behavior that wasn't so blatant as some of these cases, what do you think? >> i certainly hope so. i think it was very disappointing for everybody to see what kind of unfairness was going on in this process. obviously people were aware there was some favoritism was involved with alumni and people that had certain donations and things like that. that was all legal. this was unlawful behavior and it was very entitled. i think this has brought maybe to the forefront a issue we all knew existed but hopefully has changed things for the better. it has really sent a warning shot to people who would think of engaging in that sort of behavior in the future. neil: what about schools themselves, to button down the process which you might have coaches or others who would influence the selection process, what do you think? >> certainly same sort of impact i would hope. in this case obviously there has been some coaches that already

have been sentenced or will be sentenced. they have used money they received from families for their programs. that is still unlawful if it wasn't obtained through proper procedures. so i think that, hopefully people will get the message, that this sort of behavior is unacceptable. it is not fair and doesn't reward merit which we all want to believe is something that the college admissions process tries to focus on. neil: yeah you are right. we'll see how it all sorts out. katie, thank you very much for taking the time. >> thank you. neil: in the meantime the dow up about 40 point right now. we're still looking if any gain happens today, whether it's a record-setting one or not, for the 8th straight gain of advances third straight week of advances. virtually all the sectors save energy are up right now. some of them like mcdonald's are up. we'll have more after this. i get it all the time.

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neil: there are signs, signs that the president could be pivoting on trade, although he has reversed himself on this idea of an interim trade deal, says he never said it. he did say it. i have the audio. but that's nth here r there. we are following the back and forth because it may be hinting of progress. we have been down this road before. carl icahn could take his billions and go to another shall we say warmer, more friendly state like florida. he says maybe because he's tired and wants to seek out a safer confine or a less taxing one. we will explore that in this hour. vaping crackdown and of course, looking into all of these other court cases that could or could not get settled. we start now. neil: all right. this is another one of those days where just talk of progress on the trade front is enough to

get stocks moving forward here. there is some confusion on that front but couple that with some better than expected economic news on the retail sales front, on the consumer sentiment front and that our economy maybe is doing better than we earlier thought and that could be the wind at the president's back and the chinese are offering concessions of their own and that this president has pushed back tariffs that were to take effect october 1st until at least the middle of october. a lot of people saying hey, maybe they cobble together something soon. let's get the read from former democratic tennessee congressman harold ford, leigh carter and charlie gasparino. lee, let me begin with you on how the president is persuading folks on this issue of trade. he is saying right now i'm not budging, whatever is going on, they are budging but he's open to sort of dodging and weaving. one aspect is maybe a bifurcated

trade deal, one that has the easy stuff you do up front, more difficult stuff like intellectual property protections, all the rest, later. what do you think? >> look, i think he's going to dangle a few crumbs for all of us who are starting to panic. i think he hates to see the markets go crazy. i think he knows he needs to do something. neil: this moves them. >> i think the market goes crazy and he responds. i think that's what we are seeing now. i think in these talks, both sides are giving each other just enough to stay at the table. it's like staying in that bad relationship where you just get just enough to stay in it even though you know you should be walking away. neil: you know what's weird about it, trade is like this -- we had an abusive relationship with trade, for good or ill, but we had almost too much. i'm wondering at the expense of all else whether that gets dangerous. >> you know the size of these economies makes this conversation pressing and urgent and the fact we have an agreement with mexico that's waiting for some consideration

of votes. that's not causing the markets to move like china is. i do think that the fact -- two things from last night's debate. you saw democrats, not all of them, criticized him on china. they all acknowledge, chuck schumer o down in the party, there has been a lot of -- neil: that was prior. >> if you're china or you may think we may not have it any easier with a new president. finally, the fact that biden, who however you think he performed, certainly the moderate message seemed to find a little more traction this time than it did a month ago. neil: did the record player comment hurt? >> i like your eight track player. the reality is, i think the markets are looking at maybe, maybe the medicare for all, the far left, that may not be the message that prevails. the banks and health care companies may have a better shot at broadening -- neil: you are quite right, there was a more moderate message. >> it gained traction this time. neil: you're right. what do you think, charlie?

>> i don't think china will give up that much. i tnk donald boxed himself in with navarro. neil: you call the president of the united states donald? >> mr. president. i have known him for years as donald. i call navarro, navarro. peter navarro. i think the hard line screwed them because the chinese will not bend if you put a gun to their heads. just culturally, they are not going there. i think the hard line hurt them. the notion that china was going to cave and all this, there was some ridiculous story they leaked because -- this came from the white house, because trump got out of the mueller probe, that the chinese were now scared of him and they were going to cave on trade. i mean, that story was leaked out. that was one of the dumbest stories i ever heard in my life. trust me, i tracked this down. it's stupid. the chinese will not negotiate if you put a gun to their head. neil: what about all the stuff they're throwing out there now?

>> it's what she said. it's crumbs. you both walk away. trump will say oh, victory. neil: you should have done that in the beginning. >> you know what, though, he's going to be running now on promises made, promises kept. he said i was going to get tough on china. that's what he ran on. he's going to say i got tough on china. he's going to say i held out and people are willing to stay with me, he's got evidence of the farmers. >> what happened? >> nothing's happened yet. but you know, i think he's going to get a little bit. he will talk about how tough he was. neil: isn't there talk about convincing others when facts don't seem to matter? because that's not a fact. that's not a reality. >> it doesn't matter to him what the realities are. i don't want to get into -- but most times it doesn't. it's what is the perception. he ran on saying he's going to get tough on china. >> but he didn't do anything. >> charlie, you said on this show a few times that the president may need to let navarro go at some point. you saw bolton e just recently. it's believed it's because the president wants to move, the perception of reality, in a different direction. you could very well see if they continue to dangle crumbs and

they get to a point where the president believes a deal is close, but navarro is in the way -- neil: isn't lighthizer worse than him as far as in your face? >> no. >> the one problem with that is trump likes to hear people that agree with him. one thing about george bush and even obama, they had everybody, listen, there were all sorts of internecine rivalries. the president picks and chooses. what's new about this president, if you don't agree with him on everything, if you give him any pushback, you are likely to be fired, especially if -- neil: i don't know if it's about the pushback but when you make it public or leak something out. wasn't that the issue with bolton, he was leaking stuff out? >> is he really a leaker? of all the leakers, never heard -- >> my point is slightly different. i think bolton has been used by this president to push a point he wants to push and if we get to the point where he thinks he needs to deal with china, there are enough crumbs on the table, maybe it's bifurcated, maybe it's structured in a new way, i think he would be willing -- >> onlyroem with that is

that he likes navarro, what navarro says. they agree on a lot of stuff. >> he likes a lot of people he sacrifices. >> he didn't like bolton. neil: navarro was with me the other day neil, you ought to get on board here. >> everybody is saying that to you. how come you're not part of the team? >> i feel very vulnerable. neil: i do want to raise this with you, the issue of carl icahn. i don't know how big his staff is here in new york. charlie was telling me maybe not as big as it appears. but that he wants to move out. at first, you know, he's 83 years old. florida is certainly appealing, i get it. but it's also tax appealing as well. so if taxes were behind it and you were watching that debate where so many of those candidates were talking about taxes, and how they should stick it to the rich and all that, do you worry? >> i think if you were a governor of a state that has higher taxes than florida which would be a lot, and certainly here in new york, connecticut,

new jersey, there has to be cause for some concern. i think two things have to be considered and lee mentioned it before the show. one, the state and local tax deductions, the salt, and whether or not that should be adjusted. neil: they are talking about doing that. they limited it to $10,000. they are talking about raising it. >> who is talking about it? the democrats or republicans? neil: and republicans. it's not enough of a quorum. >> if there's a tax bill, the president dangled a middle class tax cut bill. that could very well be part of it. there's no doubt taxes are part of it. if you watched the debate, you have to be slightly assuaged if you are one who doesn't believe we should just tax everybody to handle every challenge or problem society faces. because joe biden made clear we have to be able to pay for these things. neil: do you fit into this party now? >> oh, yeah. neil: you are moderate, pragmatic. >> i would remind everybody a few years ago when the republicans held their debates and donald trump dominated those debates, you had a group of, as impressive a group of republicans running for president back in 2016 as accomplished, who never made the

first stage. jindal, these are accomplished big thinkers. donald trump ran a different kind of race than republicans had run in the past. he fits in the party, those guys still fit. neil: he reshaped it. >> i think our party -- neil: are these guys reshaping the party, your party, to the hard left? >> they are reshaping it in a way that it makes me have to find a way to get into the party a little differently. last night i found myself listening to joe biden and i'm not here for any candidate -- neil: he's more of a moderate bent. >> listened to amy klobuchar. even to a small extent, listened to kamala harris. neil: how could you have listened to all that? >> it was maybe the most excruciating, boring -- >> charlie and i shared things. >> it was so excruciatingly boring and so pie in the sky. you know, it was actually hard to listen to cory booker talk about his impoverished childhood. he didn't really have one. listen, as crazy as trump is, and we all know he's a unicorn,

okay -- neil: but what carl icahn is doing, that's the stuff going on behind the scenes. >> i don't mean to cut you off, but frankly, i'm not going to cry too much for carl icahn moving. at worst case, $17 billion he decides to move to florida, bless his heart. the issue is one for middle class voters who say wait a second, are democrats going to tax me so much for health care, not for me but for everyone around me who may not be working, may not be as committed to their jobs and the things i'm committed to, that's the larger issue. >> i think the real issue, though, is republicans have to make people care that this is happening. because for most people, like cry me a river, your billionaire has to move. oh, poor thing. neil: many are, though. they're not billionaires. they are leaving these high tax -- >> people don't care. >> it's nost that. you're right, but carl's got a business. businesses are leaving. that's the real problem here. you know, andrew cuomo, you

know, has done nothing to stop that. they are talking about more taxes. i like andrew cuomo but what has he done? >> you have to understand, there's a very anti-corporate culture right now, anti-capitalism, anti-big business. >> 60% of the people know they need corporations and business to work. trust me on this. at least 60%. neil: i think you just made that up. >> i did. >> but it's a pretty good one. most people know they need rich people. they do. >> they might not like it, though. there is a very good -- i mean, there's a target on capitalism's back right now and the democrats are capitalizing on that. >> 30% of the people care, that's a real poll, 30% of the people, i mean, these democrats represent literally a very very small percentage. >> i understand it but you know what, the republicans have to -- >> they are actually less than the crazy trump people. neil: we have to take a break, but it is interesting that democrats have a great affinity

for their own rich, like john kennedy was a rock star, wealthy family. fdr, rock star, wealthy family. they have a long history of admiring the gazillionaires in their ranks, not so much the other party's ranks. >> there's a long history of this in politics. this is nothing new. i don't disagree with anything you are saying. all i'm saying is if carl icahn wants to move, carl icahn should move. the real question is, what is the pinch happening to middle class voters across new york state, new jersey, connecticut and other states -- >> there is a pinch. >> but the tax money, it's minia meaningful numbers but are democrats talking about too many tax increases for regular, everyday hard-working new yorkers and americans? neil: to m so extesome extent, get a lot more bang for your buck -- >> which is why there should be some comfort to hear joe biden say that doesn't all add up. we said on this show last

time -- neil: did he actually say that? >> he did. neil: i had trouble understanding. >> he did, early on. >> i agree. the thing, it's a little long. these debates are a little long. there's still a lot of people onstage. you can't touch on six, seven topics over two, two and a half hours. you will lose people. biden, the first 20 minutes, he helped the country understand that there's a different message in the democratic party and give this party still some time to get its act right. neil: all right. we will watch it very very closely. meanwhile, how do you make a lot of promises when you are staring at a trillion dollar deficit, you still have a month to go in this fiscal year? then what? it's a problem for republicans and democrats alike. even though both are ignoring that problem. how much we overspend, after this. what a time to be alive. the world is customized to you. built for you. so why isn't it all about you, when it comes to your money? so. what's on your mind? we are edward jones,

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neil: welcome back, everyone. a trillion dollars. that's what we're looking at for a deficit 11 months into the year. it's going to be a record no matter how you slice it. there are going to be more like it in the years ahead, we're told. in fact, at the pace donald trump is going, he will eclipse the eight-year record that barack obama had when he was president, and democrats like to point out those were different times, different circumstances, and making the assumption donald trump is re-elected, but is this the kind of stuff that gets in his way because republicans used to be the party of fiscal restraint, anything but right now. democrats of course are hitting this issue hard but they weren't great with this issue unless you go back to the clinton administration. let's get the read again from our panelists. harold forward jd jr., lee cart charlie gasparino. i'm looking at these cross-currents and saying nowhere is this in the top ten list for voters. it's dead, the deficit. it's a big deal for me because i have been focused on it for so

many years, we tend to not have any problem with this. >> since the '08 crisis, everyday americans, the problems with the economy, the housing crisis, we will talk about the debt when we get bac on our feet. trump and the campaign in 2016 made it clear he was not going to cut medicare, social security, medicaid. he stood firm by that. neil: had he done that, he probably would not have been elected. >> right. also, he would be facing a big, big number. the real tragedy of the numbers, we aren't looking and saying we invested heavily into infrastructure, in new schools, new broadband so we will see it pay off over the next 10, 15 years. neil: how are our deficit any worse than barack obama? >> i'm not making this part stand. neil: too bad. >> the truth is, that's a problem. now, donald trump will have to answer these questions. he will not have republicans raising it. he will have democrats who will

have a harder time because liberals want to grow this thing more. >> that's right. >> he will say congress didn't cut the budget enough, we now have a divided congress. i know he at first had republicans in there. he will also say there was a payoff to this. we spent money, this was keynesian, we cut taxes and unemployment is now 3.5%. remember there was a payoff here. you got a decent economy through spending and it was congress's fault they didn't come back with my budgets that had lots of cuts to go through -- to go through. neil: he didn't have lots of cuts to go through. >> he will say he did. neil: but he didn't. you have to be very careful, charlie. >> i agree with you. neil: i'm just saying that we live, direct to your book, right, persuasion versus the facts here. the facts are that he let it all happen. now, he also railed against this under barack obama, who also railed against this under george

bush, and the last president to effectively deal with it, not entirely on his own, but got to give him credit, bill clinton working with newt gingrich. i don't see any of that today. >> the problem is nobody cares. people will tackle the issue -- neil: i care. >> i know, but really, you put it on people's top issues, it will be the economy, health care, trade. neil: charlie and i are safe. we will get the social security. but i have a very young crew. you could add up their ages all together and they are still half my age. >> going back to persuasion, we have to make people care about this. because it's going to take that. we're not going to be able to get all the things we want and it's hard. neil: it touts the virtue of just lying. >> no, it does not. neil: yes it does, in the face of facts. >> one of the problems with making the deficit an issue is that from the academic economic standpoint, it's not. there is an economic -- academic

strain in the democratic party that says deficits don't matter. the fed could buy all the debt. i don't remember the name of that term. there's this whole new school of liberal progressive -- neil: well, to your point, with the strong economy -- >> larry kudlow will come back to you and say we are going to cut taxes more and that will grow the economy. neil: there was a time when larry kudlow was worried about deficits. >> i know that. none of them -- no one is worried about it, to lee's point. this is something everyone is going to let go. frankly, if you were a cynic, you would say mr. president, you have a trillion dollar debt but you didn't get a wall. how did you not get a wall and spend a little more money with all that money being spent? >> exactly. >> the numbers are so big and people have been hearing about this for so long, it's like the boy who cried wolf. like i don't know what that means. it's a lot of money. i don't care. nothing bad's happened yet. when something bad happens, i'll worry. neil: we owe this money to ourselves.

we're not paying. >> it's like monopoly money. >> that's exactly the point. neil: all right. i do want to ask you also on this trade issue about how this comes into play because that is the president's argument for goosing the economy, then that's going to help the debt. i don't know how that all sorts out but that's exactly what we are going to explore after this quick break. i'm your cat. ever since you brought me home, that day.

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neil: a lot of democrats are seeing a path toward rescuing this nafta deal, the new nafta deal, and it's not a sure thing but after ten months when the leaders of the respective countries, canada, united states and mexico signed off on this, they are a long way from getting that settled. chad pergram with the story. reporter: the key is going to be enforcement according to house speaker nancy pelosi. she wants that built into the agreement. that's not how it worked with nafta in 1993, something she

supported 26 years ago. i asked the house speaker about what that would look like yesterday. what would be different about the content of the usmca having enforcement built in in concrete terms, what that would look like? >> all trade agreements have to have such enforcement, otherwise you're just having a conversation. you're just having a press release. it has to be enforcement within the agreement. reporter: i asked the house speaker about, i said when do you think this will come up here. we are still thinking this is going to be right maybe november, maybe december. i have known house speaker nancy pelosi a long time. you can tell when she's actually interested in a topic, she wants to get to yes but the key right now is going to be building that into the agreement. they don't have enough democrats who will support it. if they get democrats on board because they have those provisions with the enforcement built in, then they can probably pass it. you know, that's going to be the key here. now, the other problem is that

republicans are asking why don't they put it on the floor. the problem is the administration has not yet sent paperwork to capitol hill. this is kind of a red herring, saying nancy pelosi is delaying it, it wouldn't pass right now. they want it to pass, they have to get their ducks in order, then send it to capitol hill. the other issue on capitol hill is funding the government. they have about two weeks and change to do that. the house majority leader steny hoyer says they will move an interim spending bill next week, they will keep the government open through middle of november. you know, one of the main problems here, though, continues to be a border wall. that's the flash point. the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell criticized democrats yesterday for violating the terms of the budget pact they worked out over the summer, saying democrats are trying to put poison pills in this. dick durbin is the democratic whip and he said quote, one man's poison pill is another man's vitamin. neil? neil: i see what he did there. all right. chad, thank you very much, my

friend. chad pergram on capitol hill. he knows the ins and outs better than anybody. how do you feel about this whole vaping debate, the president wants to remove a lot of these products from store shelves. he's dialed that back a little from going from all products to most of those aimed at kids. unfortunately, a lot of adults like some of the same products that were targeted to kids. then what do you do? where do you draw the line? after this. ♪ ♪ i come face-to-face with a lot of behinds. so i know there's a big need

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neil: all right. well, there is a new lawsuit against a major e-cigarette company about to be announced in chicago. consider this a preview of coming attractions. grady trimble with the very latest. what can you tell us? reporter: hey, neil. the press conference is going to start any minute now. what we have learned is that this law firm in chicago is suing the vaping giant, the e-cigarette giant juul. they say, it's a story that has played out all over the country but in this specific case, they say a teenager underaged bought one of these e-cigarettes, got a mysterious lung illness and it turns out it was vaping-related. this allegation in the lawsuit is that juul used deceptive marketing tactics to target young people and this all comes as the fda is working on guidelines for its ban on tobacco -- non-tobacco flavored e-cigarettes. the flavors are said to be appealing to young people. these types of lawsuits are piling on for juul. they are dealing with all sorts of lawsuits across the country. they have this statement to

provide. we have never marketed to youth and we never will. our market is the over one billion adult smokers worldwide who should have the opportunity to switch to vapor products if they so desire. if you look on the company's website, you see the same message right on the front page. they say the goal is to convert adults who already smoke cigarettes to vaping. the tobacco company altria owns about a third of juul. its stock is down about 30% this year and some traditional cigarette companies see vaping as a growth opportunity. we should point out while all this is going on, juul has said it supports the white house's ban on those flavored e-cigarettes, but now there might be some pushback from the company. apparently inside reportedly there are some discussions to try to keep flavored e-cigarettes, mint and menthol, on the market. the idea there is that those are the flavors that cigarette smokers like. so if the whole goal is to get smokers to switch over to vaping

products, those types of flavors should still be on the market. neil, we will have a full report once this press conference wraps up. neil: thank you, my friend. harold ford jr. with us, former congressman. what do you think about this whole thing, what the government should or shouldn't do, whether it inserts itself in banning or limiting these products? what do you think? >> in general, if you have those in the science and medical community who found a correlation between the use of some product and injury to a person, i do think that there's a public health role there that should be raised and should be played. all of this is still unclear, there's still not enough data there. there's some terrible, terrible stories here. neil: there will be more terrible stories of people who died from tobacco use. >> we will get a chance, i think we will get a chance to understand it. i think juul is up with the fda, hopefully the fda will expedite this. the president made clear he wants to take some action. you have states taking action. attorneys general taking action. in this case, we will hopefully get the fda and others to move but i'm not one to believe the government should not play a

role as protector if you are able to show a direct relationship between real injury and use of a product. neil: but there -- i get what you're saying but there are far more people who have heart related problems because they overdo it on baconnd fatty food and processed meat. do you then start limiting them? because if that happens -- >> i know, right, this is a very slippery slope for argument. when does the government decide what we can and can't do? [ speaking simultaneous reply ] >> i don't like vaping. it's doing terrible things to young people and i hate it. that said, are they going to start taking away soda? neil: -- just had a baby but isn't it your call or the mom down the road than the government calling the shots? >> absolutely. i think this should be up to the individual. i believe in the -- >> i do think government should provide warnings and let people --

neil: and don't sell to ds. >> we can go way too far. i always thought tobacco settlements, the billion dollars the tobacco companies pay -- neil: $200 billion plus. >> $200 billion plus. here's the thing. the damage of them not telling the truth was nil because here's why. everybody knew cigarettes were bad. we have known this since the '60s. >> absolutely. >> before there were warning labels and psa announcements left and right. at some point, when you get beyond the warnings, it becomes ridiculous. >> there's individual responsibility. >> i can't believe i'm saying that. warnings, yes. i just don't think if someone wants to smoke cigarettes after all those warnings, it's their call. those warnings exist. i'm not sure with some of the products you have on the market today, that's -- neil: if they start putting warnings on bacon or italian sausage --

>> i would ignore them. there you go. neil: that's, all kidding aside, that's what i worry about, with the best of intentions it goes crazy. >> remember cigarette companies lied. neil: the juul guys lied. >> if they put their hand up and take the oath -- >> put them in jail. >> right, but i mean, these products, look, i'm not going to relitigate what happened with the cigarette companies. juul has now a lawsuit against it, it has the president aimed. my only point -- >> i think we are in agreement. warning labels, yes. let's be real clear here. when did the tobacco companies pay? $200 billion in 1995 or so? by 1995, you tell me people did not know cigarettes cause cancer? they were cancer sticks. neil: they were found to have clearly lied. >> then indict them. neil: fine. i'm saying that was the game changer here. even allowing for that, they didn't pull the product.

they made it more difficult for young people to buy it, more difficult for people, you know, to see advertising from this group. but it was just made onerous but they weren't -- >> it was the damage of the lie, i don't think was that great because most people knew they were lying. everybody knew they were lying. >> in fairness to what happened also, cigarette use amongst kids has come down. one of the reasons people are so concerned about this whole vaping culture and vaping industry is they think this is a way to reconnect kids and perhaps create another wave and generation of addicted people. i don't know if that's the case. that should be where hopefully these lawsuits will help get to the bottom of this. neil: someone will get very rich. >> that's what i'm saying. these plaintiffs' lawyers, it really, it doesn't really -- neil: you're not a lawyer, are you? >> no. neil: lee, are you a lawyer? >> no. >> i don't think the tobacco settlement had much to do with the reduction of cigarettes with kids. i think it was societal. everybody knows -- neil: cigarette use has gone way

down. >> i think one of the biggest reasons it went down is because you can't smoke inside. >> that's a good point. neil: that's a good point. >> that made a huge difference. >> now you can only smoke pot inside. what a world. neil: you are providing a lot of enlightenment. we have consumer confidence with a surprising surge or a better than expected number on retail sales. that's the wind at the president's back which is why he is going back and forth on this trade thing, what he's open to or not open to. a lot of people are seizing on this to say ahead of the two sides talking in the next couple weeks, maybe, maybe there's some progress. i hate to burst your bubble. we have be doen down this path before. we will explore how many times and what happened each and every time. after this. ♪ all right brad, once again i have revolutionized the songwriting process. oh, here we go. i know i can't play an instrument,

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something, they are hearing some noise on the trade front with china, that china might buy more goods, agricultural, from us, might buy some time for the president, the president might have a bifurcated deal where he settles the easy stuff up front, deals with intellectual property and all that stuff a little later. we don't know. i bet scott shellady has an idea. the cme genius with us right now. what do you think, scott? someone was telling me earlier today something's happening. i can sense something is happening. is it? >> you know, i feel like saying fool me once, you know, fool me twice. i'm not going to get behind it until it happens. we have been down the road where i thought something was going to happen and we had that watershed moment in may where they tore up something we almost had completed, and ever since then, i thought you know what, they were almost there and they still tore it up? we're not even close to being almost there even right now. folks are starting to get this feel-good feeling. as a matter of fact, if you look at what they bought or pledged to buy in soybeans yesterday,

whatever hit the wires, you do the math, it's a token gesture. it's nothing. i'm not going to get excited until it actually happens. and i don't really think it's going to actually happen. neil: we will bring our panel into this. lee carter, one of the things i see happening here, we might end up with something that is a nominal change. a typical market view is, charlie can tell you, better, even a bad deal than no deal. is that how this ultimately will come down? >> i think we will see some crumbs. that's what i think. i think it will be small little things happening. neil: agricultural crumbs? >> exactly. neil: what do you think? >> i agree. the chinese are not giving in. as you know, i spoke with a diplomat the other day. he's got the talking points down. scott is exactly right. when you peel back whatever they tell you they are going to do it turns out to be crumbs. i think one of the problems the president has was threatening them. i don't think he should have gone that negative on them and let peter navarro control the dialogue here. i think it should have been much

more of a negotiation. he think he should have never left tpp. i think one of the ways -- neil: the trans-pacific partnership which was an asian community stacked deck against china. >> one of the ways you do it is prove to them that hey, you are facing some opposition and then they back off a lot or a little. neil: i think backing out of that was a big mistake. >> the entire political class did in the country, both democrats and republicans called for retreat. even when people acknowledged to your point it was all stacked in our favor because it aligned us with asian nations that were saying to china you're not going to continue doing this. the fact he wouldn't start with that, which i think it probably strengthened his hand. he's going to do something because there's one thing about the president, he wants to keep this economy strong and markets to get more consistent because he needs that heading into next year. >> he want to go in and told you i was going to do it and i did it. check the box. neil: to be fair, it is addressing issues that were long ignored. the seriousness of what china was doing. there were ways to handle it,

ways not to. >> let me be clear, he had to put his foot down. neil: i understand. scott, i'm wondering here, harold raised it before, the former congressman, peter navarro is the centerpoint of a lot of this attention. he's not an easy guy to interview. he was talking to me about cavuto, you better get on board with this so i felt threatened like i was talking to an italian relative. but having said that, i'm wondering, possibly after john bolton going, has it sort of freed the president's hand on more agreements with foreign countries, maybe sit down with the leader of iran, all that, the same might apply, i don't want to put words into your mouth, the same might apply here to getting rid of peter navarro, that there, you allow a more pragmatic approach to this whole issue. what do you think? >> you know, i thought about that. you know, the report card is so late to come to fruition about

whether or not he's the right guy anyway. but it doesn't matter who the guy is, right? at the end of the day, donald trump wants to reshape the way the world, not just america, trades with china. that's it. that's what he wants to hang his hat on. that is only it. so he's going to stick to his guns especially with this intellectual property rights, whomever he's got around him. yes, we can look into it and say this guy's a little soft or this guy is more of a hard liner. [ speaking simultaneously ] neil: do you do all the stuff you can do now and address that later? what do you think? if that's what we end up doing? >> i don't think we can go back. that's what i think. we can't continue to let them behave the way they're behaving. whatever deal we do, they can't go back to anything like it used to be before. that's why it will take a lot longer. that means we will have to have supply lines pressure them. >> he's got an election coming up. he can't be -- he needs the markets to perform okay. donald trump has to settle for crumbs here.

he boxed himself in. neil: you agree with that? >> charlie, i will give you this. this is one thing he's done that's really good. does anybody on that panel know what a win would be to donald trump? he hasn't told anybody what he really, really wants. he can say whatever he wants as a win and it's a win. >> that's right. that's exactly right. >> it's a win in his view. >> his base will say it's a win, too. neil: you've got to get on board. >> imagine what navarro would say to me, if he said that to you. >> if crumbs include agricultural wins, democrats made the point farmers have been hit the hardest by this, he will frame this to your point as more of a major win. >> absolutely. he has been saying i will do this deal and get tough on that deal. that will be his talking point. that's the way it is. neil: it could be just that. all right. the dow is up 48 points here. we are looking at our eighth straight trading day of advances, third straight week of

advances. we are looking at a lot of good corporate news. want to get into that, after this. ♪ ♪ i've been a caregiver for 20 years. no two patients are the same. predicting the next step for them can be challenging. today we're using the ibm cloud to run new analytics tools that help us better predict and plan a patient's recovery. ♪ ♪ ultimately, it's helping thousands of patients return home. ♪ ♪

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neil: all right. where was the talk about the economy during the debate last night? it was indirectly referred to in the battle about trade and china and all that but the fact of the matter was it was not a huge theme. to the washington examiner's senior editor on what that might be saying about democrats going forward and their strategy here. what do you think? >> yeah, it's a good point, neil. they really did not talk a lot about the economy. i don't think that actually serves democratic primary voters well. in a recent poll, it showed health care was the issue they rated most extremely important but almost half of them also rated the economy extremely important. i wonder if part of that is

because the things they would be saying, if they were talking about the economy, would not be good news. health care, of course, was one of the biggest topics last night. medicare for all, which bernie sanders and elizabeth warren support, that would cost at least $30 trillion over ten years. how are we going to pay for that? you either have to raise taxes, go further into debt. you're going to have to do a lot of things that aren't going to be good for the economy. neil: i have heard that figure, $30 trillion. who came up with that? i'm sure there was some math to it. the one thing i do see is that you were touching on again, you were praising the more moderated approach that was espoused by joe biden, maybe senator klobuchar and others, that that got out there and that might help as we get closer to a nominee, or certainly the general election, where that kind of view tends to be more winning than not. where do you see it going? where do you see this debate? >> the reason those issues and that train of thought got out

was that both senators warren and sanders were forced to answer first of all, most people didn't know it was $30 trillion. that's in their bills. amy klobuchar had a great line, she said i didn't write the bill, i read it. on page eight, you make clear that people with health insurance, private health insurance, will give that up. so i thought that was what was important. it's going to force democrats, any democratic primary voters, to grapple with do we want to nominate someone who is proposing we spend $30 trillion over the next ten years, that answer may be yes but at least those numbers are out there. >> or give up your health care. >> right. >> you have to give that up and be forced to give it up. the other thing, i would point out that what differed a little, most primaries when you run against an incumbent, they normally don't talk about the economy. four years ago, trump didn't talk about the economy. he talked about immigration, talked about a wall. >> trump talked about the economy. it was one of his five key points. >> the bigger points were immigration -- >> the wall. >>. neil: you're not part of this.

>> well, democrats are talking about health care and health care is -- whether you agree with their position -- neil: they are right to say more people are without it. >> i was pleased impeachment didn't come up last night. neil: kelly, what did you think of that? did the more moderating issue, would that be a concern for republicans that maybe to harold's point, some of the democrats are getting it? >> yeah. i think so. you know, i have to say when i talked to moderate democrats in the green room here at fox, they tell me they are really glad biden is in the race trying to moderate things. you are talking about the economy, talked about tpp earlier. hillary clinton in the last cycle was for it but bernie sanders eventually wore her down and got her to change her mind during the primary. so often in these democratic primaries, you actually find things going the other way. you have really more left moderating extremist influences that then are damaging in the general. so i think it is good that these moderate voices are there now and i'm sure people are hoping

that they keep themselves there and do a lot better onstage. >> biden had no choice but to do this. he's being attacked from every which way, particularly by sanders and warren, and he has to show that what they're saying is so absurd, even a liberal like him -- >> it seems to me, though, watching the debates last night and listening to voter reactions to it, this is less about figuring out who the candidate was, more about what the party is going to be. i think that's a big problem for the democrats. i didn't leave thinking like wow, you've got a front-runner. neil: it happens every four years. >> i'm just glad they didn't talk about lock boxes, though. neil: or tariffs on record players. all right. we've got actress felicity huffman facing sentencing now in that college admissions cheating scandal. she paid $15,000 to lift hr daughter's s.a.t. scores. she will pay for that soon. we just don't know how much. after this. the world is built for you.

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neil: iowa republican senator joni ernst will be my guest tomorrow. she isored for farmers in her state and her entire party, tomorrow. here is charles. charles: i'm charles payne this is making money. dow eyeing 8th straight day of gains as we close out the week. what you need to watch out for as we close the week in the een. a lot of market success can be attributed to the china trade front. president trump is open to short term deals with china. i will go in depth why i think china is friendly all of a sudden. plus, buyer beware. with all the hype surrounding ipos, lopsided management structures are some of the red flags. we'll share other issues investors must know before jumping on the next r