david: there he is. try it again. neil cavuto. >> neil cavuto. david: neil, gave you a toss from dennis rodman. neil: very good. guys, thank you very much. dennis rodman, great seeing you. where we stand right now, my thanks to connell mcshane subbing when i was out yesterday. here is what the betting is, the federal reserve in couple hours will announce a quarter-point cut interest rates. not a sure thing. confluence of data isn't convincing one way or the other. the argument for a cut, we've seen manufacturing weakness. we've seen global slowdown. all prices cutting from the worrisome up tick from the saudi attack. business confidence is winding down along with their capital spending. reason enough, cut just to keep them happy. now the strengths we've seen came out today with housing starts hitting a 12-year high,

continuing a trend that shows so far, university of michigan sentiment, other surveys we're doing okay and things are going okay. in the middle of all of that, you have a report out of fedex saying we're not doing okay. telegraphing problems because of the trade war. the trade war is one of the big reasons why the fed will supposedly move today. it is all in what the fed lays out after it makes its move. the consensus seems to coalesce out of quarter-point cut to interest rates. would bring overnight lending rate from 1.75 rate to 2%, from around 2.25 we are right now. that can jostle wildly. let's get the read on all of that charles payne, thank you for helping out on "your world" yesterday on fox news. what do you expect first off? >> 25 basis point rate cut in part because the wall street expects it, to such a degree -- yeah it is. if you think a trump tweet is

tough, wall street selloff of several hundred points. i mean they, they really have the market cornered when it comes to temper tantrums. neil: you really believe if we don't get that they will go nuts? >> unless the fed says something remarkable. i like the idea of the market going up on good news. you just alluded to some of it but we had a string of two weeks worth of amazing economic data some of it very surprising like industrial production yesterday. neil: right. >> that is part of the economy that was supposed to be imploding. it was driven by a sharp increase in business equipment. durable goods, we have seen three months in a row increase. retail sales up this morning. housing data was absolutely phenomenal. neil: wouldn't that give you pause with the rate-cutting thing? >> it would if i had not watched mario draghi on his last performance. i use performance, he was really on fire, last time speaking at chairman. neil: head of european union. >> it was his last one.

he went out with a bang. he really said, he made the gument that the fed was making earlier this year lack of inflation or deflation. we've seen it moderate a little bit but the fed can't really make policy based on the idea we saw inflation tick a little bit higher, when the long-term trend is down. when some key trends are down, commodity costs or others. particularly when the fed understands if we get into deflationary death spiral they can't fix it. if you talk about limited tools now trying to stop that from happening imagine once we get through the throes of something like that which is insidious, feeds upon itself. that would be the excuse, if i were jay powell, i focus on that. i focus on the overall economy getting better, the data looking good but being data dependent. think about three biggest hits in the market last year, going back to october 3. last fomc said low inflation was

transitory. scared the heck out of the market. then this last meeting he said it was a mid-cycle adjustment. hey we're only doing it once. if you only do it once, fine. if you're telling the markets that you're data dependent, they don't go together. neil: the president collectively called the fed a bunch of boneheads. referred to powell in unflattering terms. a lot of stuff the fed was overdoing they did. they raised too much too soon. even the federal reserve acknowledged that and now the stimulus they were reluck tan to try, in other words try quantitative easing again, they had a stumbling start with that so i guess what i'm asking is, who is ends aing to whom here? >> i would hope that the fed is answering to the economy. and to your point the last 24 hours have been remarkable. it is a little wonky maybe not getting sort of press coverage it should be getting.

the new york fed having to intervene in the repurchasing market. essentially what it means for folks watching at home, our financial system ran out of hard cash, we ran out of money! we had no cash. neil: how often does that happen? >> unusual almost like haley's comet. neil: that is my point playing with something you shouldn't play with at all. it was risky during the obama administration. i think it is varies did i now. >> it is but gives the fed credibility. the fed knew the corporations had to pay a bunch of taxes on 15th. knew there were be transfers of money. they know it ahead of time. shouldn't have been caught flat-footed. emergency 53 billion. today 75 billion. maybe one of these things that are unusual, where haley's comes every now and then. fed should have seen it. one of the ways they could have avoided it, what president trump

was saying, too much quantitative tightening. neil: i know when we go to the quantitative easing and getting little wonky, producers say, there go our ratings. >> we can bring rodman in. neil: i just worry when things are pretty good, a lot of people are talking about how good things are with the economy. by and large i agree with you, we don't need to imitate europe and the rest of the world where things are not going nearly as well. i believe you save that kind of stuff when you really need it. >> i wouldn't go to zero but i do think the decline in prices does worry me a lot particularly when we were promised the prices would go straight up at the advent of a trade war. still prices would go straight to the moon. lumber prices -- neil: the inflation is just gone. we had core inflation picking up a little bit enough to give pause. >> parts that should have been going through the roof are plummeting. really why did lumber go down?

we had tariffs on canadian lumber for two years. have you seen the steel company stocks? if president trump was trying to pick a winner with the steel companies he didn't do it the right way. steel went through the floor. it broke -- commodities in general. apparel, if there is enough out there if the fed wants to, by the way these are jerome powell's comment, have ounce of prevention, 25 basis cut. just listen, talk to the market in a way that you know, diswage everyone out there. we don't know -- neil: you think that is a wise idea to follow the market for this stuff? >> you know unfortunately the fed has opened this door with the idea, hey, every time we get together we'll have a press conference and question and answer period. they have actually got sucked into this whole thing. powell is taking it a step further. before they didn't have the two-day meeting every time they got together t was occasionally. they occasionally have a press conference. now every single time. that is hour, hour 1/2 of chances to say the wrong thing. so they're here.

they have got to live wit. jay powell has to really, today, i'm telling you the q&a it will be riveting. it could change everything in a blink. one or two words. neil: calm down. >> i'm trying to pump up my ratings [laughter] neil: did you have any of the stuff dennis rodman was -- >> no. they said it would make you sleepy. take it after the show. neil: thank you, charles. all this comes to charles's point about concerns about trade, how they're sort of hitting different playsers at different times. we hinted at general mills. we got a very strong read on that from some big companies like fedex. that stock is down 14%. it is disproportionately walloping the transportation average. a lot of people look at that as a bad sign. this is sort of a one-off. the bottom line that company is saying it is affecting us, you know the drill. former trump advisor steve moore

is with us. steve, is the fed telegraphing kind of stuff you worry about, a trade war for all the right reasons is having all the wrong ramifications? what do you think? >> it is interesting i had a conversation with fred smith. as you know has been on your show many times, the ceo of fedex, he has been warning me last couple months the trade war is hurting companies like fedex. it is hurting production. they're on the front line of the trade war. look, i'm a trump supporter. i actually support what he is doing with china. i also, i acknowledged openly, this trade war is probably knocked i would estimate, half, 3/4 percentage point off our gdp growth. so it is having -- there is short-term pain, there is no denying it and fedex unfortunately feeling that pain. neil: general mills warning of the same proverbial headwinds.

>> yep. neil: president trump says a lot of customers seize on it as excuse like retailers blame bad weather for bad quarter, they never credit sunny weather for a good one, having said that, do you think there is something what he said, a lot more companies will have this as something to point to as a worry? >> it is, look, any company that is global is feeling the effect of the trade war. again, you know, i want to be very clear on this, i think trump is fighting the right fight against china. think they're a menace on the world scene. so i'm glad we have a president standing up to them but whenever you have these kind of trade disputes it doesn't just affect -- by the way it is not just affecting american companies. it is affecting germany and europe. that is all the more reason we have to get this thing resolved. i've been pretty optimistic as you know i think sometime in the next three or four-month we'll get a deal with china. it will not be a wonderful deal but is going to be something to

ease the tensions. by the way when that happens, these companies, you look at fedex stock, the day it is announced we have a trade deal their stock will go right through the roof. neil: you think that appies to any deal, even if it's a not a great deal but at least removes partial uncertainty, president talking about a tentative deal, one that would push back more onerous contentious issues like intellectual property, all that, what do you think then? >> i do. my advice to the president, would be get some kind of a deal now. it will not be a great deal. they may lower their tariffs. we may lower our tariffs a little bit. detente, a truce. get that through the election. trump can be very hard-line with china in the second term. i think that would be a wise thing to do for the economy. i think it would be a wise thing for the president to try to get done economically. the big question nobody knows the answer to, will beijing go for that kind of a deal? by the way it is in their interests. nobody is really reporting except fox business news how

damaging these tariffs have been to the chinese economy. i just heard your conversation with charles, he's right there is kind of a global slowdown but people are not looking at, china could suffer the first recession in 30 years. it is really affecting their industrial production and their orders. seeing companies moving their headquarters out of china into places like vietnam and indonesia and india, singapore. neil: those phenomenon were in effect before the trade war. >> what? neil: those phenomena were in effect. >> not so fast. it is hurting hong kong as well. i think, i've always said the two clouds on the economy have been the trade war, then what you were just talking about with charles is i'm with charles on this, i think you're leaning in other direction from listening to i think it is important we do the rate cut. i'm much more worried than you are, neil about deflation rather than inflation. when you have, running out of

money as happened yesterday, that is a sign there is not enough dollars in the economy. you have a big demand for dollars globally. we're the alpha male economy. everybody acknowledges in september and december -- neil: we'll not be a alpha male economy if we cut interest rates which tends to mimic europe not as good situation as we are. >> here is the thing. the most important tinge when the fed has to do lower rates or lower interest rates reserves. we need banks lending again. interest rates on reserves is higher than they can make on a loan. it is crazy. neil: negative interest rate abroad it is not a charm. >> they have deflation as well. it is not hard to solve a deflation problem. get more money in the economy. neil: i love you to death, they're zero lower, we're imitating that, we want to go

that route and it seems weird? >> i'm not for negative interest rates. i president said that i would be in favor of immediate 50 basis point decline. do it now. if they don't do the 25 basis point decline it will have a very negative effect. the market will tumble. neil: the markets are looking for that. you're right. we'll see what happens, steve. very clear you like charles payne more than me but i don't take it personally. i still love you just the same. >> thanks, neil. neil: steve moore was the president's choice to join the federal reserve, opted out of that, still getting a lot of attention here. when we come back we'll go to the white house, blake burman on how everything seems circling around iran as likely culprit behind that attack on the saudi oil facilities. we do know that secretary of state mike pompeo has arrived in saudi arabia. he will be meeting with the crown prince on that and much more. we have the dow down about 73 points. the dow transports really getting shellacked. don't read this as an indictment on the general market as some

people do when they see the transports. this is all fedex or i should say fed hexed. more aftera this. we're more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help... voya. helping you to and through retirement. imagine a world where nothing gets in the way of doing great work. where an american icon uses the latest hr tools to stay true to the family recipe. where a music studio spends less time on hr and payroll, and more time crafting that perfect sound. where the nation's biggest party store can staff up quickly as soon as it's time for fun. this is the world of adp.

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neil: all right. in case you had any doubts about the origins of that attack on saudi arabia, secretary of state mike pompeo saying that it didn't come from yemen's houthi rebels. this was an iranian attack. he is going to be meeting with the crown prince of saudi arabia. there is issue what to do about iran if that is indeed the case, facing increased sanctions right now. the question how stiff the sanctions can get beyond the stiff sanctions in effect right now. blake burman at the white house with more. reporter: neil, a host of headlines involving saudi arabia and iran. you hit on one of them. secretary of state mike pompeo has just landed in saudi arabia

where he will have meetings there, but it started this morning with treasury secretary steve mnuchin as the president tweeted out he has authorized the treasury secretary to ramp up sanctions against iran. we have reached out to both the white house and the treasury department on this one and at this point, neil, are willing to elaborate what those sanctions might be and when they might come. fox by the way is also told that the defense secretary mark esper has presented military options to the president should the commander-in-chief want to go down that path. the president has said as you know, the u.s. is quote, locked and loaded but has yet to formally declare iran the culprit of the saudi oil attacks, saying in part he is awaiting the saudis. within the past hour here as well saudi arabian officials said iran-sponsored the attacks. this took place at a news conference as saudi officials showed debris from a cruise missile they recovered. saudi arabia says the attacks

are in line with iranian equipment, technology and strategy, however those officials also said that they need more information to determine the launch point and that they are going through the data. moving forward here, speaking of the headlines, the president will now have a new advisor to guide him through all of this, and other national security issues as the president announced on twitter this morning that robert o'brien will be his new national security advisor. o'brien replacing john bolton who was removed from the team at the white house last week. he held the position as hostage negotiator for the state department. the president has held up the amount of american hostages that have been recovered as a big portion of his administration's foreign policy successes. now he is bringing robert o'brien into the national security apparatus. neil? neil: blake burman at the white house. thank you, my friend. president is at a fund-raiser in california after the national republican committee posted

record fund-raising in month of august. we have chris bedford, former ohio secretary of state, former transition member ken blackwell, jessica tarlov, democratic strategist, and much more. chris, back and forth on the fund-raising and the fact that republicans believe they will not have any on that front. right now the two premier democratic candidates are having no problem on that front, joe biden and elizabeth warren. for some of the others a bit more problematic. how does the money sort out? >> the rnc basically broken a record every single month this year, which would have been a hard month to beat, following the january before was the inauguration. as far as well the republican is doing, party apparatus, the dnc is doing terribly because the money is split among the primaries and candidates are taking it. all money from politics from that aspect. the results of this in

north carolina the special election, republicans were behind in early voting absentee voting not too uncommon for gop and won the special election election day with massive spending. if i were tom perez i would be really worried about the resources and my job. david: jessica, elizabeth warren doesn't take any pac money, running for the senate couple times, this is different she is running for president. raised a lot of money by small denominations. barack obama done that. bernie sanders done that. that is a sign of widespread appeal in the party. does she have the edge in that regard? >> in fund-raising category absolutely. elizabeth warren was competing more with bernie sanders than with joe biden who has a different fund-raising strategy. if you look at current polling, what has gone on, we had a slew of polls come out -- neil: you say joe biden have a different fund-raising strategy. she and her people say if your check clears, that's fine.

is that the case here and is that going to come back to hurt him? >> we've already seen a little bit of pushback about it where he had a fossil fuel executive fund-raiser, that he was going to. what i mean there is nothing dirty about what joe biden is doing. he is running smaller fund-raisers than big populist campaign that elizabeth warren is. that doesn't mean the checks don't clear or he doesn't have broad support as well. polls are good for elizabeth warren. but they very good for joe biden. he is much more durable than the chattering class made him out to be. he is bow whiched by the african-american support which is not going anywhere. neil: what do you make of the criticisms he is popeye on the stump, lost his fastball, all of that, he comes through okay. i know a lot of the president's people are worried about him because of how he stacks up albeit in early polls. what do you think? >> i think this will come down

to a handful of states. i think joe biden's embrace of the big government strategy of the democrats will sink his ship. i think the rise of elizabeth warren is going to give us a more right target to fight socialist expansionism that is part, at the heart of her agenda. look the president is not going to have any concerns about money. he in fact is now positioning himself as a problem solver whether it be the iran situation, the vexing problem of that nemesis or sustaining economic growth and job creation. so this president is coming down to his agenda. against an agenda that we know will be a socialist bent agenda coming from the left and the democrats. neil: all right. >> no matter who is driving that ship.

neil: all right. >> who is driving that ship. neil: we'll see who the nominee is whether socialist bent or not. guys, thank you all very much. the dow down about 65 points. 10 of s&p 50011 sectors that we closely follow are on the downside. fed day next. i get it all the time. "have you lost weight?" of course i have- ever since i started renting from national. because national lets me lose the wait at the counter... ...and choose any car in the aisle.

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the u.s. money reserve has proudly served hundreds of thousands of clients worldwide. don't wait another minute, call now to purchase your american eagle coins at cost for the amazing price on your screen. neil: betting what the federal reserve is going to do is a dicey gamble. 47% of those who bet on this stuff, fed funds futures, that sort of thing, overnight lending rate, there is way to make money. they are anticipating we will see a quarter-point cut in the rate bringing it to a range of 1.75% to 2%. hasten to add a couple more weeks ago that was close to 90%. i might also point out a couple months ago it was close to 0%, number of people assuming rates would be going down certainly at this point in the year. what has gotten in the way of

people unanimously seeing a cut, economy showing signs of strength including today. u.s. home start hitting a 12-year high. the fact we see core inflation moving up just a tad. also sentiment figures, most recently out of the university of michigan jumping to a reading of 92 in the latest point from 89.8 in august. it is not all one way that the data irrevokably strong enough to warrant a move like this. the argument for a rate cut the markets want it and the markets think their view is quite strong and quite well-noun and number of companies are dealing with the overall trade limbo as talks with china go on and on. fedex the big transport concern, the first to say certainly among the more prominent, we have got problems. if this thing drags on we'll have bigger problems. general mills a smaller player. we have kind of those programs as well. we're following that, getting a gauge on what the fed does 90

minutes away from that announcement. meanwhile the united workers blasting gm saying using workers health insurance as leverage as the strike goes into the third day. grady trimble following this closely joins us from detroit. hey, grady. reporter: neil it is a battle of will at this point. gm stopped paying health care coverage for striking workers as you see here, forcing the union to pick up the tab at least some of it. they're paying the workers on strike $250 a beak. where is that money coming from, how long will it last? the union did set up a strike fund. it is $750 million but i got off the phone with an analyst, they're pulling from that about 32 1/2 million dollars every single week. so you can do the math there. as for gm, how long can they hang on? they're losing according to some analysts up to $100 million

every single day but cox automotive says they have plenty of inventory especially on the most popular vehicle, the chevy silverado. they have 93 days of inventory on that truck. there is separately a federal investigation going into current and former uaw officials. they are accused of using union dues for their benefit of a luxury lifestyle according to investigators. we asked officialsbo that this week. >> whatever is happening out there will be dealt with separately. our job, and our responsibility is to negotiate a contract, a fair contract on behalf of our members and their families. we are not distracted by that at all. reporter: neil, this strike officially longer than the last one in 2007. that one lasted only two days. neil: grady, great reporting as always. grady trimble in detroit. i want to bring your attention what is going on with oil. continues to slip slide away.

we started up 14% after saudi attacks. we're down additional 2% today. we could be unwinding the oil price today. that is a significant development. i'll tell you why after this. ♪ ♪ ♪

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neil: all right, the president says he is revoking california admissions waiver. this is continuing trend challenging a lot of thinks california is doing by unduing

them or trying to do. fox news william la jeunesse with more. what are we looking at, neil? reporter: neil automakers said moments ago they would review the waiver denial but not necessarily endorse it. two things, the car you buy in ohio will meet same standard as one you buy in california. if you move here you won't pay a penalty. carmakers will likely continue selling large suvs and trucks that are most popular with buyers. longer term expect a legal fight over states rights that could go to the supreme court. secondly, this will be a campaign issue if voters elect a democrat unlikely they would defend a trump policy in court. >> not only is the president's going against the people of california who made this decision, he is also going against the auto manufacturers and the very car industry that he purports to be helping with this action.

reporter: so in essence this is a fight of over how far your car travels on a gallon of gas. under the obama waiver a vehicle fleet must average 54 miles per gallon by 2025. trump is proposing to freeze that at 37 miles per gallon per year. supporters say that means safer an less expensive cars. >> global warming, national consumption of oil is not a state issue, it's a national issue. if california is allowed to control the process what it is saying is, that one state can decide for the entire country rather than the federal government. reporter: depending on your point of view this is pro-consumer because it is about price but also difference of 6 billion tons of carbon carbon dioxide. but for now we'll have not have

a split. neil: told you a little while ago secretary of state mike pompeo is saying this all points to the iranians behind that saudi arabia attack. iran, i believe foreign minister, mohammed zarif is on the wires right now saying that the president is escalating economic war on iranians. he tweeted that. so you know, everyone tweets. you got that out of the way. former u.s. ambassador to saudi arabia robert jordan what effect this is having on the world oil markets. we've been unwinding it, ambassador, since monday's 5% rise. another 1 1/2% today. what do you make of that? >> well a lot of this is based on the assurances of the saudi oil minister that they would be back up and running within a couple of weeks. so i think we've got to see if they can deliver on that but it is good news. they seem to have a certain redundancy built into the plant which i think is extremely important. the one thing i think we've all

got to watch is how vulnerable the saudi oil infrastructure is to future attacks. clearly, their air defenses were not sufficient to stop these drone or missile attacks. we've got to work with the saudis to help them figure out how to have a more robust defense posture here. neil: i was alarmed by that as well. defer to you obviously in this regard, ambassador, because we guard and help guard the kingdom as well. we weren't prepared for that or dinse it coming, the degree which if it is indeed iranians and not houthi rebels from yemen, it's a game-changer, isn't it? it shows you the vulnerability of that kingdom? >> it's a game-changer. this technology now allows asymmetrical warfare in a way perhaps wasn't imagined several years ago. we've got to get ahead of the game, ahead of the curve, to help the saudis figure this out. neil: ambassador, the president

i thought made a bigger deal than warranted was asked about his response to iran, if it was proven iran would be proportionate. something to the degree which they attacked the saudis which would at least seem to indicate an attack on their oil facilities. i madet leap. no one else did. i guess what i'm asking you, if he did that, wouldn't that have the very effect he wants to try to avoid? in other words jacking up of oil prices even though we don't take iranian oil, much of the world does? >> it would not only jack up oil prices but i think also put our allies in the region at greater risk. certainly an eye for an eye is the mantra over there and you can be sure that if we attacked the oil fields either the saudi or emirati oil fields will be attacked again. this is a dangerous escalation. probably what he is doing with ramp up the financial sanctions is a better way to go about

this. neil: all right, ambassador, thank you for taking the time. we'll watch it very closely. the dow is down 59 points with all the crosscurrents. with the ambassador's point, oil is subdued. it was a big run, i'm not minimizing 14, 15%, keep in mind after other incursions in the middle east, just explosions in the middle east we've seen doubling, tripling, in case of the oil embargo, a quadrupling in oil prices. often times within just days that was then. very different right now. we have a lot more coming up including timing out exactly how this hike has occurred and been unwound. what that could say about the markets and their confidence that cooler heads will prevail. after this. its for my future. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retire your risk dot org.

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neil: he is 42 years old and he hasn't lost his stride or his impact, certainly in football for the new england patriots. 2-0 he is big reason why.

i'm told the man is indestructible. he is 112 years old he is still playing i don't get it but apparently there's a secret or method what keeps him shape. jackie deangelis had a front row seat and seen what he is planning right now. hey, jackie. reporter: good afternoon to you, neil, that is exactly right. there is a formula kept tom brady on the field at 42 at superstar status. that formula got him six super bowl rings. he did it with cofounder of his business, tb12, tom guerrero. he shared what it takes to be tom. >> like any healthy, successful business everything matters. i think that is the way with our bodies too. everything matters. it matters how you think. it matters how you eat, how you drink, how you sleep, how you work out, how you recovery. when you add those things up, the cumulative effect of all the positives allowed me to do something i still love to do

which is playing football at 42. reporter: he loves to do it and he still great at it. i was able to take a group class this morning to really dig into the method and it is different than anything i have tried before in terms of how they instruct their classes but there are also other things you can do. in in room you can take private sessions with a trainer, get the real one-on-one experience that of course tom has when he is training. a lot of it is using resistance bands. it is about ply ability, not just the training but about rehabilitation. they ban to make sure that tom's muscles recover after he works out so he can keep going. tom brady has been able to play without injury, he hasn't missed a fame with injury over a decade. there is a reason he is so successful, neil what he does it is incredible. the discipline goes deeper than that. there is diet involved in it. here you can tap into that with

the protein and some of the supplements he uses. he has it all laid out in his book. he lays it out online as well. people that can't necessarily get to a gym. they can have the experience. they can order the products and do it at home as well. neil: isn't he all perfect. thank you very much jackie deangelis on new center he is opening up. someone told me drinks a lot of water. it is one ounce for every pound weighs. weighs 22 pounds that works out to about 14 bottles of water a day. i don't know where i'm going. i want you to think about it. that is your homework assignment of a different kind.

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neil: all right the

securities & exchange commission exchange commission taken action to get retail investors into the private markets. sometimes easier said than done but they're trying. charlie gasparino is first on that, what are they breaking down. >> this is what he focuses on in his business. here is what we know from the sec, our sources close to the sec say they have a plan that is coming out pretty soon, at least a proposal, in the works how to give retail investors to privately traded shares in the markets. omid will talk about it. retail investors don't have access to it but according to the sec they want to create some sort of a mutual fund structure or i should say a hedge fund like structure open to small investors that doesn't have the eligibility requirements after hedge fund. don't have to be a qualified investor or million dollars unmanagement. if you're neil cavuto -- neil: key inside lay player. >> neil cavuto with your $25,000 you can buy into the portfolio that is invested in a

diversified portfolio of pre-ipo shares. people think because of uber come out on ipo there is not shares traded beforehand. uh-uh. here is the problem. beforehand shares traded higher than the ipo which went down. that is where we are right now. sec is looking at this. we understand that they are in the planning stages. between the commissioners and they're trying to work something out. it would be a hedge fund product open to average people like neil cavuto. neil: thanks for pointing that out. this is your bread and butter and expertise. you could counter, turn around, say, well that could change the entire process with these type of offerings. >> the road to hell is paved by good intentions. >> come on. >> seriously. so this sounds like a great idea. let's let main street start investing in uber before it goes public. what is not to like, right? that is how these things usually start. what will happen in a few years when someone loses money.

>> they lose money anyway. >> wait a second. how do they lose money. >> lose money on the ipo. goes down. >> publicly-traded companies have to comply with sarbanes oxley, regulation fd. >> right. >> this is all happened because of pushback when they had to sue. neil: if you lose money either way that is the risk. >> my point, what is the regulatory regime will happen in the private market if you let retail start buying in? none of those regulations apply to private companies. neil: what are the warnings, risk at your own tolerance. >> that is always how it used to be in the public markets, look what happened. last year almost $3 trillion raised in the private markets, 1.8 in the public. that is how different the markets are. private markets create innovation than public markets. >> how are people supposed to get in there? i understand what you're saying what he is saying essentially this, there is all safeguards when uber comes public, right? there are certain disclosures brokers have to make. when you're dealing in the

private market, there is not a lot of disclosures. dealing with sophisticated investors. suppose you ramp up disclosures a little bit? >> that is the whole reason people stay private because they don't have to guide by the regulatory burden. my point this is slippery slope. neil: what do you think -- >> sec is putting in fund structure would in theory reduce the poe tense liability. i understand that. that may be a good step. what i don't want to leave the conversation without mentioning what is the consequences of that do because of the potential losses that private individuals may suffer? neil: private individuals whether they have money or not that is always a possibility. >> yes but the in the public markets they are get so much disclosure. they're more educate in the investment. neil: you think that affects offerings. it will dry up ipo market? >> dry up private placements. private companies will have to do a lot more regulatory wise they don't do now, if they have to sell to retail investors.

that is my point. >> that will hurt the private market. >> that is one of the reasons people start companies. it is size. so many questions you can ask about it because ramifications are huge. neil: many who put their money and lot on many of these come to the public and imploded. facebook was like, that later recouped afterwards, that is a risk. >> no doubt, neil, but rht now we decided accredited investors gets in the market. 200,000-dollars of salary or million dollars of net worth. where do you draw the line. >> to your point we point out wework is in the news. can't come public. there are all sorts of problems. they were trading privately. what happened in the private market? >> there was huge interest in the company because why i got the private valuation. over last couple years i see where the companies are trading because my broker dealer -- neil: good idea early on. >> absolutely. >> if you were like the small investor that you were involved in this under the jay clayton

proposal you would have lost money on wework in the private market? >> no doubt about it. you're not insulated losses if you get in earlier. you look at uber, with what was -- >> jay clayton would say it is diversified. neil: battle is on. >> sophisticated people like cavuto. >> we'll hear a lot more about this. neil: isn't he a moron? >> he is a good guy. neil: thank you very much, guys, seriously. i want to bring your attention to fedex posting he its biggest percentage loss since december 2018. disproportionately affecting the dow transportation average. this chinese trade thing, serious headwinds, sheer russ problems and they're serious it is going to be a disaster it isn't corrected soon. so it is. more after this. automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity.

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for a slowdown and that might be the excuse to see interest rat cut ag israel's election still now too close to call. prime minister netanyahu close to being out sted? and elizabeth warren caught by colbt? the tax question she is dodging that has taxpayers worrying. hour two, now. neil: all right. you think polls are difficult to follow, talk about the sentiment for a rate cut this go-round. a little more than a couple weeks ago it was darned near 100% when people were increasingly convinced the economy is slowing down enough and the pressure was going so far to the federal reserve from the white house and across the world where the trend has been for lower rates, that they were almost inevitably going to cut rates today a quarter point. that has since dipped by half on

the belief that maybe some strong economic news we've gotten in the meantime is sort of offsetting that. it's all in the details of what the fed says and jerome powell and the q & a that comes afterwards. let's get the read from our panel a the dow is down 75 1/2 points and 10 of the 11 s&p 500 sectors are under selling pressure. the only one nominally positive today, utilities. a haven when everything goes one way. all right. we have the evening edit host, elizabeth macdonald and market watcher david dietze. i haven't found something that goes similarly wicked with david so i will eschew that. it is interesting how the sentiment has changed, right? all of a sudden the markets don't know, well, wait a minute, it's not a gimme. what do you think? >> that shows it's a divided fed. because i was just on the phone talking to sources. what we expect is probably a quarter point rate cut but no indication of future rate cuts so that shows you that there's a big divide, i don't know if

david agrees, what -- neil: he's nodding. that's a good sign. >> that's a good sign. what the fed will do. i think there's a raging debate behind the scenes at the federal reserve. neil: it changed suddenly over the last week or two. maybe some of the stronger data we got, sentiment numbers out of university of michigan, could certainly be the housing data today, 12-year highs, but it comes and goes, but i'm wondering, too, if some of the fed members are looking at what's going on abroad and saying do we want to mimic that, right? what do you think? >> certainly the debate is out as to whether lower rates are really going to help the economy. i think on margin, yes, they will. we've just gotten the numbers that came in from the mortgage markets showing there's a huge new wave of refinancing that obviously puts money in people's pockets. there's an uptick in the whole real estate market. on balance, it does. but obviously, you know, europe has been with negative interest rates for years now and they're still stuck in the mud. neil: that's what i worry about. if europe's in a world of hurt with negative interest rates, even though they're not negative, those that are close to or at zero, and it's not been

the elixir they thought, japan is probably the most obvious example of that over decades, so why are we doing this? >> that's right. you know, if you look historically, we are truly in abnormal times. we are running fast so the federal reserve or government to fix slowdowns in the economy when naturally slowdowns have happened in the past. we are in a brave new world and it's terra incognito to run to the fed or governments to fix slowdowns when usually the market would fix it. to have it now that we are talking seriously about negative rates for this country, you can better believe that if you go there, that central bank balance sheets will widen in that environment, they will get more deeply into bond buying and we have to start talking about how bad low rates are for banks because banks cannot make money in a low rate environment and you could trigger a banking crisis if you continue to go down the path of low and dramatically dropping off a

cliff rates. neil: james freeman just joined us, "wall street journal" assistant editorial page editor. the argument for rate cut, it will improve our trade posture. you know the drill. it hasn't helped a lot of the countries who haven't improved their trade posture. that's just one facet of this. i'm curious your take. >> i think what liz was talking about, it's not just bad for banks, it causes a misallocation of capital if you have governments sort of artificially depressing the price of credit but i think we are going to hear probably, perhaps, the same arguments you alluded to that too much uncertainty and slowing global growth but apart from this sort of temporary hiccup in the money markets which i think may be due to a lot of technical reasons that don't have to do with the real economy, i don't see businesses saying i can't get capital, i need a quarter point rate decrease to be able to get a loan or to make this deal work. that doesn't seem to be the

problem. if anything, the big problem is they can't find enough workers. neil: yeah. so there's another separate issue there. but we are joined by the former omb chief under president bill clinton. very good to have you. thank you for taking the time. >> thank you. neil: let me get your read of that. we are hoping accounting that as the markets collectively hope on a rate cut when the economy is as relatively strong as it is, what do you make of that? >> the fed has pretty well sent signals that there is going to be a quarter point cut. it would be a little bit of a surprise bordering on a shock if it didn't happen. the quarter point i think is happening. i think your panel is pretty squarely on this. the very low, even negative rates in europe haven't been terribly effective but i think that has more to doith other

factors in europe than it does with the tools that having been said, negative rates would be terra incognita and the consequences are hard to predict here in the united states. neil: when you were in the clinton administration and you were there of course during the boom that started, the internet boom and all the other stuff that would later happen and the revenue that created for the government and all of that, but barring that, it's very hard to see this debt issue, this prolonged overhang that's gotten significantly more problematic changing. i'm wondering whether that is addressed, whether rates are cut or not. >> cutting rates is of course a very limited, has a very limited impact on the budget side and it's good only so long as rates remain low, you know. touch wood, we are going to start getting some economic growth. all the problems we observe overseas, there's brexit,

there's enormous uncertainty. if we start getting growth and interest rates start to rise, all of a sudden the federal government's net interest bill is going to be a big factor in budget outcomes. it would be a good thing if we could find our way clear to addressing that problem at some point while the sun's still shining. neil: good luck on that front. i do want to bring my esteemed panel into this. what do you make of what he's saying? >> i agree with almost all of it except i think the low rates do have a big budget impact, and i guess maybe we're really agreeing on this, that this era has allowed huge spending seemingly without consequence. i don't think you would have had the multiple years of trillion dollar deficits during the obama era and i don't think you would see them now if we didn't have a federal reserve really accommodating this spending and

borrowing binge by politicians by keeping rates at rock bottom and making it seem like it's easy to finance this massive debt. neil: that gets me worried that we're depending on the fed to sort of bail our heinies out. >> in the day in order to solve the debt and deficit problem, we have to cut spending. i don't think we will rely on the federal reserve to bail us out but there's no question about it. i think if rates were higher, there would be calls of, you know, concerns that treasury is crowding out private borrowers and that's putting a damper on the economy. to that extent i think people are right. neil: all right. one of the things i have discovered is that allan greenspan was saying on negative interest rates, they are inevitably going to come here. the former federal reserve chairman saying it's sort of baked into the cake here. i'm wondering whether you agree with that, and what that would mean. >> well, i hope that's wrong. i hope that we get more robust economic growth at some point in the not-too-distant future.

it's really incongruous talking about business suffering for the absence of workers and you would think that would give us a consumption boom that would be enough to create a positive feedback loop here. but i'm worried about negative rates, i'm worried about sustained low positive rates. we are in effect sending signals to the allocation of capital that have the potential effect of distorting the way our economy works. neil: lizzie macdonald is here. >> i think what he just said is spot-on. he's right. we have been at this, we have been covering this since 2007. it's sort of like remember the fed pushing on a string, now and then it became pushing on a spaghetti, now it's pushing on oatmeal. we can go at this all day. >> i get it. >> cottage cheese. so you know, what astounds me, when we were through this period

of major central bank intervention, this is now -- i can't believe we are talking about negative rates -- we wanted to get off looking to the fed for their forward outlook and instead wanted to go back to ceos and the organic u.s., you know, capital market of their forward outlook. now we comin back to the fed again. i'm surprised we haven't heard from the president tweeting yet. maybe he's too busy in california. you know, what is striking to me is when the fed cut rates in july and they said, you know, they put it into that range and then we held -- they held back, we didn't know what they were going to do. there was trade uncertainty, the trade fight ramped up and then that ten-year yield started to go south 1.5%. i think this is exactly what's happening again now. in other words, you're going to have the fed say we don't know whether they are going to cut rates in the future, that's going to drive a race to safety, to the safe haven ten-year. you will see possibly that yield go down. don't hold me to it. but the trade uncertainty is a big deal.

it's a chill over business investment. it's a hiring pullback that could damage consumer confidence and consumer spending. that's what the government has to deal with now, the white house has to deal with now. the federal reserve is probably sitting on a knife edge right now to saying no, we are not going to give you a forecast of what we are going to do about rate cuts. neil: quickly, before we go, do you think we will ever get something like the internet b m boom, what's happening under your watch with president bill clinton, whether it was president bill clinton or you, i'm sure it was very instrumentally, but something like that just not going to happen again? that was once in a generation event? what do you think of that? >> well, prediction is very difficult, eecll when it's about the future. we have had invention, we have had innovation in this economy repeatedly over a long period of time. is somebody going to find a way perhaps to capitalize on the internet revolution in a way

that we haven't discovered yet? i don't know. if i knew, i would be buying whatever stock i thought would be giving us that result. i'm a fan of innovation and i hope that we get there. neil: all right. that hope is a bipartisan one. thank you very much for joining us. i appreciate it. we are down about 83 points. we are waiting to see what the federal reserve does. again, the expectations are always risky. certainly that's something david always reminds us. don't jump on whatever the consensus is. having said that, the consensus is we will see rates cut a quarter of a point, and more telling will be the statement afterwards that we get out of jerome powell, the chairman of the federal reserve. we don't know. we will tease all possibilities because that's what predictions are. all possibilities. after this. tv announcer: it's just as powerful as the lexus rx... as many safety features as the rx, the new... the lexus rx has met its match.

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neil: all right. it might have been the biggest blunder of his incredible political career, but benjamin netanyahu is in a world of potential hurt. his future is uncertain after an election that essentially came down to a tie or looks that way. now trying to cobble together a coalition government. fox news correspondent with the latest from jerusalem. how is it looking there? reporter: well, right now, with 90% of the official vote in, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu and his likud party are trailing to their main opponent, the blue and white party. it's important to note that based on these numbers, we are going to see some slight shifts but over neither candidate will be able to form a 61-seat majority voting bloc in order to govern here in israel. it does put israeli prime minister netanyahu in a

difficult but not impossible position to remain prime minister. the kingmaker in all of this is his former defense minister and long-term rival who is expected to get nine seats. that will be a deciding factor in the race. lieberman and netanyahu, who have had their personal issues over the years, and lieberman is considered more of a secular liberal candidate. as netanyahu and gantz remain deadlocked, both gave remarks last night but stopped short of claiming victory as they did earlier this year. gantz called for a unity government that would combine the two largest parties as thanked supporters for getting out to the polls while netanyahu bashed the media and said he is forming a zionist nationalist government. netanyahu today is using them to incite fear by delegitimizing their political power as he tries to pull together a governing coalition. >> there are only two options, either a government headed by me

or a dangerous government that leans on the arab parties. reporter: today, the horse trading began as both candidates do try to form a coalition government. both gantz and netanyahu holding meetings today in israel to give you a sense of the urgency, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu has canceled his annual trip to the united nations general assembly just next week amid this political turmoil. neil: thank you very, very much. meanwhile, elizabeth warren is facing a whole lot of tough questions about her costly plans, not from republicans, from stephen colbert. >> the most radical thing that you are proposing is medicare for all. >> uh-huh. you think that's the most radical? i think it's wealth tax but i'll take them all. i'll take them all. i'm your cat. ever since you brought me home, that day. i've been plotting to destroy you.

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should always be working harder. that's why your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. you keep being asked in the debates how are you going to pay

for it, are you going to raise the middle class taxes. >> right. >> how are you going to pay for it? are you going to raise the middle class taxes? >> so here's how we're going to do this. costs are going to go up for the wealthiest americans, for big corporations. >> taxes, what you mean by cost? >> yeah. and hard-working middle class families are going to see their costs go down. >> will their taxes go up? >> here's the thing. >> here's the thing. neil: that was a very riveting exchange there. again, you have to go outside that limited pool, the top 1%, even the top 5%, to pay for a lot of what the good senator from massachusetts wants to do. whether you accept what she wants to do or not. it does cost a lot of money and it has down to a much wider pool of people. that seems to be a message not only folks like colbert are embracing but folks on the left and the right. our panel is back with us. david, that was the thrust of

this entire argument. she, because she's risen so highly and quickly in the polls, other more moderate bent challengers were saying like joe biden and a host of others, wait a minute, it's not possible for you to pay for this with just targeting guys like you. what do you say? >> i think people are focusing more and more on the trillion dollar deficits and the multi-trillion dollar debt and they're looking for who will come clean with the american people, who isn't so disappointing, if you are going to hand out the goodies, come clean what it's going to cost. maybe she's afraid people will not like her or she hasn't gotten into the details is what we also suspect. neil: i read a lot of her position papers. they are very well researched. you can agree or disagree with them. one of the things you come to the realization is that she, like bernie sanders, says all right, you might pay more but you will get more. it comes down to that. he just lays it out there,

bernie sanders. you will get more than you're paying. that might be the ultimate argument she makes. >> yeah, but the american people i don't think would buy that. i have never seen anybody campaign on a lack of candor and dodging questions about simple things like are you going to raise taxes or not as a path to the white house. it's extraordinary what we are seeing with bernie sanders and notably elizabeth warren. you're right, when you go on her page you click on her plans and the link, she's got 43 different other links. it makes you feel like she's going to trap the u.s. economy in her teacher's faculty lounge but what is a problem here is you cannot win on raising taxes. you can't. you are going to lose. neil: but to target just the rich, the thinking -- >> are you targeting retirement savings, you talk about the wealth tax. i can't believe she's doing a cheery dance about raising taxes. listen, this is about the democrats campaigning on anger and resentment. we talked about reagan, even obama, also jfk, optimism. that's how you build voter

coalitions, when people have nothing in common, they will vote for something because you are optimistic. they want to join up. now it's about dividing. neil: [ inaudible ] did run on hiking taxes for the rich, right? >> this is the issue, biden raised it at the debate. >> with a tax break, too. neil: you're right. >> the amounts here are so vast, you wonder how even the middle class could shoulder this which is why she probably doesn't want to admit it. if you take her estimates, her numbers, she's going to raise through the new business tax and the wealth tax about $3.75 trillion over ten years. her health care plan is going to cost about $33 trillion. so she's $29 trillion, $30 trillion short. this is bigger than any tax increase anyone has ever imagined, basically. so you understand why she doesn't want to explain it but that colbert interview went on

for another two minutes and she dodged -- neil: she talked about the medicare for all thing. a lot of people hearing that say i have private insurance plan, she rails against insurance companies as the source of all the problems we have, i'm not here to argue that, david, but i am saying a lot of people hear that, say wait a minute, medicare for all, that means i'm going to lose the insurance i have and for a lot of americans, about 90% who have some sort of coverage, that isn't going to sit well. even though they might balk at insurance companies, as is their want. >> i think that's right. to james' point, of course, the amounts that are needed are going to have to require taxes going up on the middle class and taxes are the third rail. people are cynical about this health care debate. remember the echo of you can keep your own doctor back in obamacare. that turned out not to be true. she's saying the benefits are going to be more than what you give up. yeah. i got a bridge to sell you. neil: on the stump she also says republicans are fine ones to

criticize spending, when they are piling up these deficits and debt. >> yeah, that's true. but focus on the deaf and don't add on to it with $33 trillion multiple. what is that, 15% of the u.s. economy, they are now talking about adding on to the debt. i don't know where this goes. i don't think the voters will go for it. i really don't. neil: we shall see. final word on the subject there. 2020 presidential candidate tulsi gabbard will be my guest at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. she's not in favor of a lot of the things you heard beesing espoused. she's recently making headlines criticizing the president with how he's dealing with the saudis. much more with that later on today, 4:00 p.m. eastern time. meantime, are we risking ignoring north korea because of iran? dennis rodman, that's right, dennis rodman has some ideas. >> this guy is not a bad guy. he just inherited this country and he's just trying to, you

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one day, i've said it for like seven years, one day the doors are going to open with north korea and america. i think it's going to happen the next 18 to 24 months, you'll see kim jong-un in washington, d.c. neil: did you catch that interview dennis rodman had with david asman? it was riveting. if you think about it, as david was pointing out, rodman was the first to reach out to kim

jong-un, or kim jong-un to dennis rodman, i don't know. he's a rock star in north korea, long story short, it obviously set the stage for the president of the united states talking to the same guy. the fallout from all of this and where we're going, former deputy assistant secretary jim mattis has been looking at these developments in north korea. he's very worried about kowtowing to this guy. amber smith is joining us now. there's something abo this whole notion of sitting down with the guy, talking to the guy, that the white house hopes will bear fruit. will it? >> well, we hope that it will. but i still think that north korea feels that a nuclear weapon is absolutely essential for their survival. we have seen the trump administration sort of try to help them understand why a nuclear weapon does the exact opposite. you've seen that in the multiple

talks we've had with north korea. and i think that kim jong-un is open to looking at that, but i think there is still some work that needs to be done where this administration has got to show them a path forward and what north korea looks like without a nuclear weapon, and we're not there yet but behind the scenes, they're still working towards that. neil: i'm going to expand this to my panel here. before we do that, question for james on this. that is the expectation that better to talk than not to. i think jim mattis was talking about his book and was raising the issue, be very careful with the north koreans. they have a long history of hoodwinking people. do not think for a moment that they are kinder, nicer, friendlier people or leadership, certainly. >> yeah. i can't say i'm optimistic about a deal here. i think for a lot of people, especially if you grew up in the cold war it makes you grind your teeth when you hear the president saying nice things about illegitimate communist

dictators. i think the question with north korea is what does kim jong-un really want. i'm not sure we have answered that. does he really want to go legitimate or does he want to continue being a murderous thug? neil: what do you think, amber? >> i think that north korea wants the best of both worlds. i think they want a lot of the sanctions dropped. i think they want to be able to -- be able to, you know, be introduced to the global economy and sort of reap the benefits of that, but i also think that they want to be seen as a dominant world power, someone with nuclear weapons that is able to hold their own against the united states. so i don't think that kim jong-un is going to bend that easily. i think he's going to continue to work towards getting what he wants from the united states and hopefully hope that they will cave. neil: you are looking at the president, he is in california right now, and is possibly going to address reporters.

some fund-raising and other activities as he approaches the microphone and talks, of course we will go there. lizzie, where is this whole thing going with north korea? >> well, north korea wants a bomb and also wants the u.s. out of that hemisphere. doesn't want it anywhere near. so does china. that's what we keep hearing from our sources. i mean, it's all about the personality and the characteristics of kim jong-un. neil: maybe the president will talk about this. right now. >> -- national security adviser, he worked for me for quite awhile now, with hostages, we've had a tremendous track record with respect to hostages. robert can tell you about it. we brought a lot of people back home and we haven't spent any money so that's good, because you can't do the money thing. if you do the money thing, all of a sudden it will double and triple and quadruple, you say what's going on. so robert's been fantastic. we know each other well. and maybe robert, say a few

words, please. >> great. thank you. it's a privilege to serve with the president and we look forward to another year and a ha half. we've had tremendous foreign policy successes under president trump's leadership. i expect those to continue. we've got a number of challenges but there's a great team in place with secretary pompeo and secretary esper, secretary mnuchin, others. i look forward to working with them and working with the president to keep america safe and continue to rebuild our military and really get us back to a peaful strength posture that will keep the american people safe from these challenges around the world today. reporter: what advice did you have for the president about the situation in saudi arabia and any possible military strike on iran? >> so we are looking at those issues now and getting briefed up. i think secretary pompeo is in saudi arabia now or is just coming home, and any advice i give the president will be something i give him confidentially but we're monitoring that situation

closely. reporter: mr. president, any update on your thinking? >> yeah. i have nothing to report yet. we'll probably be speaking to you tomorrow, maybe the next day. but nothing to report. but it hasn't changed very much. i think my thinking pretty much remains the same. we haven't learned much that we didn't know. but there is a certain -- a guarantee factor. we are really at a point now where we know very much what happened. yes. reporter: [ inaudible ]. >> we'll see what happens. we'll see. you watch. peter? reporter: will rouhani come to new york next week? >> i really don't know. i really don't know. that's up to him. it's not up to me. it's up to him. we'll see what happens. we are going to see what happens. i would let them come. if it was up to me, i would let them come. i have always felt the united nations is very important. i think it's got tremendous

potential. i know they never lived up to the potential it has but i would certainly not want to keep people out if they want to come. so that would be up to them. reporter: [ inaudible ] the failure to strike iran this summer was a sign of weakness? >> no, i actually think it's a sign of strength. we have the strongest military in the world now and i think it's a great sign of strength. it's very easy to attack. but if you ask lindsey, ask him how did going into the middle east, how did that work out, and how did going into iraq work out. so we have a disagreement on that, and you know there's plenty of time to do some dastardly things. it's very easy to start. we'll see what happens. we'll see what happens. i think we have a lot of good capital. if we have to do something, we'll do it without hesitation. reporter: [ inaudible ] mr.

pompeo, the attacks in saudi were an act of war and if so, what's the response from the u.s.? >> he just came out with a statement. he spoke to me a little while ago and we'll have an announcement. reporter: what does mr. o'brien bring to the table that you were looking for that maybe you didn't get through mr. bolton? >> it's very interesting. mr. o'brien is highly respected. he was highly respected by so many people that i didn't even know really knew him. he did a tremendous job on hostage negotiation, really tremendous, like unparalleled. we've had tremendous success in that regard, brought home many people. and through hostage negotiation, i got to know him very well myself but also, a lot of people that i respect rated him as the absolute number one choice. so i think we have a very good chemistry together and i think we will have a great relationship. he is a very talented man. reporter: did you raise more

sanctions on iran today? >> i did. i did. we will be adding some very significant sanctions on to iran. reporter: what will they include? >> we will be announcing it over the next 48 hours. reporter: will there be a further announcement on iran? are you looking at a military strike? >> we'll see what happens. reporter: what are the options, mr. president, that you are considering? you said there were some very bad -- >> there are many options, as you know. there are many options. there's the ultimate option and there are options a lot less than that. we'll see. we're in a very powerful position. right now we're in a very very powerful position. reporter: you say the ultimate option, are you talking -- >> i say the ultimate option meaning go in war. no, i'm not talking about that ultimate option. no. all right? reporter: how do you [ inaudible ]? >> i think it's a very important role. it's really aehat if the president respects the person that's the adviser, i think it

really plays a very very important role. okay? thank you. we are going to the border later. are you all with me? we will show you a lot of wall. we are building a lot of wall. we won the big case and a couple of other cases, as you know. we're building a lot of wall. we'll be talking to you later on. okay? reporter: have you spoken to netanyahu? >> i have not. those results are coming in and it's very close. do you have any updates? any updates? because you people usually should know before the president. reporter: [ inaudible ]. >> no, i'm not. no, i'm not. everybody knew it was going to be very close. we'll see what happens. look, our relationship is with israel. we'll see what happens. thank you. thank you, everybody. neil: all right. the president in california. the gentleman next to him, robert o'brien, the president's pick to be his fourth national security adviser. he's a special presidential envoy for hostage affairs right now.

he did mention the israeli elections, an update which he was asking for from the press. tight as a tick right there but neither side was able to cobble together the at least 60 votes, they would need 61 technically to be in control of the knesset so they are working frantically to work with all the parties to get such a coalition. amber smith back with us, former deputy to defense secretary mattis. i'm wondering on the israeli issue, if benjamin netanyahu were not able to succeed this roll of the dice to call an election after he had pretty much everything in his favor, and just disbanded and called this election, it's going to come back to bite him, isn't it? >> it's no secret that netanyahu has had some controversies over the years as well, so i think a lot of people were a little concerned about how these elections would turn out, but as we have seen president trump and netanyahu do have a very close working relationship so that will be interesting to see what

happens moving forward with the israeli election so we'll just have to wait and see what that final count comes down to. neil: i wonder also what it would mean with respect to iran. almost all the fingers are pointing now, including the secretary of state, to iran behind those attacks, but what iran was able to do, if that is the case, to do with drones what a lot of people had feared would be soldiers or massive boots on the ground war in the middle east, it showed not only the vulnerability of our oil but maybe the kingdom that's in a very presecarious state. >> it is, and i do not think that we need to be positioning ourselves to defend saudi arabia. in fact, we do billions of dollars' worth of arm sales with saudi arabia. they are more than capable, they have plenty of funding and equipment and are more than capable of defending themselves. any further u.s. involvement

with any sort of military strike or operation at this time, i do not feel would be beneficial. it would be playing into iran's hands who really wants to disrupt the oil market right now, who wants to drive prices up and really wants to push the united states into a corner where they feel like we have to negotiate with some of our allies like britain and germany and france, who want to still work with iran on the deal. so i think that it would be wise to take a step back and really just back to what the president said, just while he was talking to the press, is that it is much easier to attack. it takes some serious leadership to be able to take a step back and show some restraint and sort of let the waters calm for a second and see what's the appropriate course of action. we are already seeing sanctions but i commend the president for being able to show some restraint right now. neil: amber smith, thank you very, very much.

sorry for that interruption. with the president of the united states, who has promised still more sanctions on iran. a big critic of our whole approach not only in dealing with the iranians and trying to kow-tow to the saudis, tulsi gabbard on this issue at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. more after this. o isn't just the park capital of the world, it also has the highest growth in manufacturing jobs in the us. it's a competition for the talent. employees need more than just a paycheck. you definitely want to take advantage of all the benefits you can get. 2/3 of employees said that the workplace is an important source for personal savings and protection solutions. the workplace should be a source of financial security. keeping your people happy is what keeps your people. that's financial wellness. put your employees on a path to financial wellness with prudential. why accept it frompt an incompyour allergy pills?e else. flonase sensimist. nothing stronger. nothing gentler. nothing lasts longer.

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neil: all right. we are 12 minutes away from that fed decision. a lot going on right now. greg mcbride is watching it very closely, the bankrate chief financial analyst. very big smartypants on these regards. first of all, what do you predict? what do you see happening? >> i think we are going to get a second rate cut following on the heels of the first rate cut back in july. another quarter of a percentage point. again, i think the mantra will be pretty much the same, the

fact there's uncertainty, the business sentiment has really taken a hit, that that's going to be why the fed is cutting rates. it's not because the consumer is not holding up. they are still in great shape. >> i'm wondering as we talk about, we sort of wonder about the economic impact of this economy-wide. can you give us a sense of how many people might be refinancing? assuming they're not these days taking so much cash out as maybe before the financial crisis, but trying to get a sense of the scale of the refinancing activity we might see here. >> we have seen quite a bit of refinancing, a real boom here over the last, say, eight weeks or so. in particular, in the month of august, long-term yields plunged, took mortgage rates right along with them. so a lot of refinancing activity. you're right, there is still a reluctance to take out cash. we have seen an uptick in those that are extracting cash, but nobody's getting flashbacks to 2006 so i don't think that's anything to lose any sleep over. but there are savvy borrowers

that have a lot of equity that recognize an attractive cost of capital when they see it and maybe using that strategically. >> i agree with you that the messaging is going to be everything. last time in july, powell used the term midcourse correction, that caused everyone to scratch their head and caused tremendous confusion. what sort of messaging technique do you think we will see today? >> yeah. he almost caused a midcourse correction in the stock market when he said that. i expect that language is going to change a little bit. you know, i think that what the fed is going to convey is kind of keeping the options open but at the same time conveying this idea that the economy is in good enough shape that they don't have to commit themselves to an aggressive campaign of cutting interest rates. probably not what equity markets want to hear but at the same time, kind of balancing that scale between cutting rates, but conveying the message the economy is still in decent shape. >> it's liz macdonald. thank you so much. what's your forecast for whether

the fed will give a forecast about future rate cuts? >> well, we are going to get those updated economic projections and you know, it's a big change from june. last time they released these projections the fed was on hold. now we are talking about a second rate cut already. so it's going to be really interesting to see specifically the dot plot and what are the projections for economic growth and unemployment? have those changed materially since the june forecast was released. also, that dot plot is going to reveal that there's a range of opinions evenin the fed. we saw that dissension in july with two voting against the rate cut. i think the dot plot's really going to bear that out in terms of a wider range of where the fed funds rate -- neil: we should explain, you are brilliant at this, but the dot plot refers to how each and every member of the fomc is gauging things. right now there are some concerned this should be enough, one cut would do it, and there are some even arguing the need for that given lately the stronger news we have been getting out of housing,

sentiment figures, some retail sales, we were expected to see a contraction, they expanded a little, albeit not as much as this year last time but the trend is the trend for the economy. no reason to stimulate something that doesn't need stimulating. what do you think of that? >> i think the biggest risk right now is you cut interest rates too much and end up igniting an asset bubble, whether it's real estate, whether it's equities. that to me is the big risk. i think even within the fed there's a recognition of that. that's why you saw the dissenting votes in july and i expect you will see more dissenting votes today under that same concern. neil: all right. but everything to lizzie's point you were raising seems to be and what jerome powell says and talks about with reporters, now, the president of course wants much more than a quarter point, as you know. he's called the members of the federal reserve boneheads. he said that they missed an opportunity that jerome powell has been a disaster. how much does that weigh on the federal reserve, do you think, or do they have blinders on and keep moving? >> well, they are going to say

that they've got blinders on and they are just keeping moving, but i think, you know, the equity markets have bullied the fed a little bit into cutting interest rates and then also, i think there's this indirect pressure. the fed cut rates and then the next day, we saw the rhetoric with regard to the chinese trade dispute ramped up even further which brought about more uncertainty in markets, and that almost forces the fed's hand to cut rates here again. i think there's sort of the roundabout way of putting pressure on the fed through the trade dispute with china. >> greg, we have been talking about how refinancing occurs if you get another quarter point rate cut. how about building? do these cuts actually cause more development in the u.s. or is it just refinancing for people who are already in homes? >> well, i mean, the refinancing is keyed off of long term rates and we saw those really moving down very kwiftswiftly and consistently since the beginning of the year. we didn't have to wait for the fed to start cutting rates before we were getting the benefits of refinancing. and i think you look at the

building permits numbers that came out this morning, they were very very strong. and i think that's an indicator that there is some pent-up demand for builders to accelerate building. these lower rates have helped the housing market on the margin. we are seeing some signs of life but lower rates alone not going to cure what ills the housing market in terms of affordability and limited inventory. those aren't going to be fixed overnight. neil: even stimulus beyond what the fed might be considering is to buy up notes and bonds like crazy again, quantitative easing as we called it. they had sort of a botched, you know, attempt at that yesterday. i'm wondering if they don't promise more of that, if this is going to turn nasty. >> well, certainly i think they are going to get some questions in the press conference and they probably should address it head-on as to exactly what happened on monday and tuesday, why that's not going to happen again and why this is playing into the decision. it will be very interesting to see if they talk about potentially more qe to help head that off. neil: all right.

final word of the subject. i want to thank everybody. thank you for taking the time. busy day for you. busy day for all these guys as well. we were alluding to the fact the fed attempted sort of like a quantitative easing, it damaged the repurchase market. i don't want to get too arcane but it blew up in their face and there was no money to be had. forawhile, there were sky-high rates. some people were paying them and a lot of people were overjoyed at receiving them but it was a brief moment here that reminded you how vulnerable this financial system still is. more after this. at fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. that's why your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. of the value you'll find at fidelity. car vending machines and buying a car 100% online.vented now we've created a brand new way for you to sell your car. whether it's a year old or a few years old, we want to buy your car.

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neil: welcome back, everybody. the dow down 58 point ahead of the fed decision. something that could influence it, hard to say, news out of gm it will lay off 1200 employees temporarily in canada with a companywide strike affecting 40,000 workers. that continues as wait at least

for couple minutes what we get out of the federal reserve. hard to say. it is in the statement afterwards how the economy goes, maybe where the 2020 election dose. charles payne to take you through that and some. charles: good man, i'm charles payne. this is "making money." everyone is nervous. we're moments away from the federal reserve decision. the stocks are in a holding pattern as investors anxiously wait what will be a interest rate cut, more importantly than jay powell's comment from the question and anticipates session. today's news will probably set the tone for this market for weeks to come. fed fund trading range of 2 to 2.25%. the consensus that the central bank will cut a quarter of message point. the federal reserve pumped

billions of dollars into the financial system first time in a decade, not just yesterday but this morning. maybe this will influence what the federal reserve does. they will take questions at 2:30. edward lawrence live at the federal reserve. reporter: the federal reserve cuts benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point. the federal funds rate is 1.75% to 2%. fed officials are not forecasting a rate cut this year, another rate cut this year. they're also not forecasting any rate cuts in 2020. they're seeing a rate hike in 2021. a very divided fed over the future path of rates. thee fed members have dissented on this. neil: james bullard, esther george and eric rosengren dissented. bullard wanted to see a 50 basis point cut. rosengren and george wanted to leave the rates where they were. seven officials see one more rate cut this year. they needed two more to have