ashley: gloom and doom. inverted yield curve. david: thank you very much for watching. i will see you here tomorrow. mean while neil cavuto is standing by to take it way for the next hour. neil: not standing but sitting watching you guys. thank you very much, my friend. so far no problem for the federal reserve as markets brush off the latest move. why is the president fuming? man, oh, man he is fuming. mark zuckerberg is on capitol hill meeting with senator mark warner. he is here to talk about washington's next steps with facebook, they are coming. huawei took a big shot at apple. we're all over it. first recession and no more cuts. despite cutting rates the president is not happy with jerome powell at all. in case you have any doubt, listen. >> i don't think he knows how to play the game very well. they raised too fast.

i've been saying this openly. and they have lowered too slow. he took 25. some people were hoping for 50. he did 25. i'm not thrilled with the fed, despite that we have an incredible economy and no inflation. >> chairman powell's job is safe? >> yeah it is safe. sure, why not? >> you paused? >> i don't pause. he has a job, i'm disappointed in it. i'm very disappointed in him. neil: the job is safe because the president can't fire him. once appointed unless serious malfeasance or crime he is there, he is there for another couple years. of course the president is free not to reappoint him. that is assuming the president is still in office to decide that. former treasury department economist under president bush 43 david beckworth with us. obviously he is not satisfied with the quarter-point move. he wanted more. we got data today to indicate maybe the fed was wise to make the quarter point and add to

that the caveat it is watching other developments. what do you think of the data and confluence and? >> we saw one fed member, james bullard, actually calling for a 50 basis point cut. neil: i saw that. >> there is some folks that did want more and i think we can read into the statement and the.plots carefully, we'll see that there is probably another rate hike coming. there is a lot of talk about a divided fomc but i think the who actually vote will more likely to cut next time. neil: you know there is this also, the federal reserve has been very busy in the markets. it's almost like quantitative easing. i don't want to get too wonky here, but they are doing some interesting things on the side. what do you make of that? >> well they're responding to increased temporary, increase in demand for liquidity. neil: right. >> yeah, and so the fed has been

shrinking its balance sheet as you know and they stopped. and there is this kind of perfect storm of events coming together that increases demand for cash. treasury was getting payments. it was issuing debt. it dried up a lot of reserves in the banking system at the very time many firms needed it. so the fed is doing now what it actually did before 2008. the fed would do temporary repurchase agreements, terri injections to calm markets down. it is not entirely new. i wouldn't call it purebred quantitative easing. somewhere in between. neil: david, when you step back and look at the fact that there were three dissenters on the quarter-point cut, you were right to point out bullard of st. louis he want ad bigger cut, a half-point cut but it is not unusual for decisions on the part of the federal reserve to have some dissenters but people are reading into this one it is an extremely divided fed.

can you help me with that? historically how does this fed stand with overs you have covered in the past? >> the reason this is called a divided decision because 10 of the 17 potential voting members indicate they want rates to stay where they are or think that rates should have been kept higher. that is a big number out of 17. so people are looking at that, saying this is a divided fomc as i mentioned earlier the people who vote, are much smaller voting group. only 10 vote in that group. at least half, potentially seven of them indicated on the dot plot they will vote for a rate cut if things curly continue to look like they are. i think we're reading too much into the dot plot but historically there have been other dissents before. this is not unusual. this is a unique time of the year and things are coming to a head. there is transition from tightening last year to easing this year. so i think we should be careful

reading too much into what happened. neil: i think you're absolutely right. david beckworth. >> thank you. neil: the 10 who decided on this including three david alluded to to opted not to go that route and one to cut more, the other two not cut at all, there are 10 rotating voting members in the federal open market committee. you heard that referred to as the fomc seven voted for the three. including the chairman. three did not. trade talks are underway in washington, d.c. remember the trade talks and lack of progress on them, questions raised for the economy the reason why the federal reserve cut rates an additional quarter point, second time in three months. edward lawrence at the white house, how these talks are going. edward? reporter: neil, the talks are going on right now as we speak here. these are deputy level talks. we'll get a sense of the progress that can be made as these talks go forward this week with a greater trade deal.

this will also set up a meeting with the two heads of the trade teams in early october. commerce secretary wilbur ross said this morning he believes the u.s. needs to see something from the chinese this week to have progress. listen. >> well if they aren't prepared to give on anything we're not going to get anywhere. >> right, right. >> remember what we need is correct the big imbalances, not just the current trade deficit, but structural imbalances impediments to market access, disrespect for intellectual property, forced technology transfers so it is more complicated than just buying a few more soybeans. reporter: now the chinese are calling these preliminary talks. today trade sources say the atmosphere changed for the chinese when president donald trump decided to delay tariff increases 15 days to october 15th. those sources, those chinese trade sources say that the talks this week, they would like to

have them center around how they could get to a win-win out of this deal. the chinese did buy more soybeans from the u.s. so we asked the agriculture secretary, sonny perdue, if this means possibly another round for help from farmers is coming up? this is what he said. listen. >> we can't say that obviously everyone would rather have trade. i would rather have a big trade announcement coming, prices recover there wouldn't be a need for one but obviously the president is prepared if it is necessary he will not let china bully him into a quick deal in order to resolve that. reporter: that could be another aid package there for farmers, leaving the door open there. huawei is not expected to come up in these talks this week because the chinese according to chinese sources say these are just preliminary talks. that is a bigger talk for a bigger discussion another day. neil. neil: thank you my friend. edward lawrence at the white house. global growth is set to slow to the weakest pace in over a

decade. to fidelity investments global macro director eric timber, and may flower managing partner larry glazer. this comes from the oecd, organization for economic cooperation and development a good mix of countries of all stripes increasingly concerned what happens with the global economy if the two strongest economies keep fighting with each other. so your impression of what they're saying a slowdown is coming? >> well they are just describing what has already been happening. the global economy has been slowing well over a year. the u.s. was bucking that trend for a while because of fiscal stimulus and tax cuts, deregulation, et cetera, but the u.s. has now joined the rest of the world. it is a interesting dichotomy. u.s. consumers are very, very strong. full employment, ten years into an expansion but when you look at the industrial manufacturing

side, kind of more linked to the global economy, clearly there is issues. europe is barely growing. .2% gdp growth. germany is in contraction. china is having a severe growth recession as well and so these are the crosscurrents that, you know, the fed is trying to navigate just yesterday and so it's a very tricky environment. and the big question is, we know the economy is slowing, globally and in the u.s. the question is, will it continue and at what point will we see some sort of bottoming in activity and that is of course what everyone is trying to figure out right now. neil: what i'm trying to figure out, larry glazer, why do we want to imitate europe, why we want lower rates at all, why we want to go in the direction of zero rates but right now we're about the only hopping economy on the planet? >> i think you make a great point, neil. clearly the storm clouds are forming on the horizon and they're starting in europe and

migrating over here. it is not just one cloud. most u.s. investors are very focused on chinese trade. there is brexit, european slowdown, all the other issues that seem to be migrating here. because of that the adults in the room in the united states are becoming increasingly concerned. oecd, calling the u.s. and global economy fragile uncertain and fed cutting rates and u.s. cfos increasingly the majority of which are seeing recession next six to 12 months. the only person that seems on live just to that -- oblivious to this is the u.s. consumer. with the help of fed, low rates, global stimulus, with china infrastructure, with some good policies out of washington clearing up uncertainty maybe we can push this off a little bit and dodge this bullet but we're definitely getting mixed messages coming out of washington, cfos. it will start to affect the behavior of investors. it is clearly affecting corporate behavior as you see

buybacks, microsoft, target. that is money not going into plants and equipment. not going into hiring. it is going into buybacks. that is actually a negative for the economy as a whole. neil: the president has been critical of the federal reserve that this latest move represents no guts, no vision. he previously said fed governors and direct presidents are boneheads. this is obviously going to continue right through the election year. any fallout from any of this? >> i don't think there is any fallout per se. as larry mentioned it is kind of a luxury problem that we are growing fast enough we don't have to lower rates to zero. i mean we are you know, at full employment 10 years into an expansion. inflation is running around 2. growth is running two and change. so-called neutral rate which is a rate that is a theoretical construct, that is considered to be around two, 2 1/2. for the fed to go to 1 3/4 as it

did yesterday is already modest easing move but for them to go to zero or something like that, careful what you wish for because that would probably mean we would be in real dire straits in terms of the economy. so i think the fed is being prudent here. maybe they should have been a little more willing to ease down the line. i think also given the liquidity issues as your previous guests mentioned in the repo market, the fed probably needs to start expanding its balance sheet again in the coming months. the repo market has become way too small relative to the overall bond market. we didn't really feel that when the balance sheet was expanding. now that it is contracting, we're starting to see liquidity spikes happen as we saw in recent days. i think the fed will be doing more. it wants to see a clear and present danger. unfortunately, historically, once you see that. it can often be too late. neil: i agree with you. every time that i hear the fed is involved, market doing that sort of stuff i get a little

nervous. three days running they have been doing it. we'll watch it closely. gentlemen, thank you very much. for one thing presidential candidate tulsi is to say we've been friends of saudi arabians, but quite another to say they're a bigger threat than iran is. really? after this. memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life.

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neil: iran foreign minister is already threatening all-out war if there is a military strike against his country but presidential candidate tulsi gabbard is suggesting that real worry is saudi arabia, not iran. >> they are continuing to spend billions of dollars every year propagating this extremist, wahhabi ideology that is fueling the growth of terrorist groups like al qaeda and isis and others around the world. they are directly supporting

those who pose a threat to our country and to the united states. that threat, that we need to defeat. neil: is that threat greater than iran? >> yes. it is. neil: so a president tulsi gabbard would see saudi arabia as a bigger threat to our country than iran? >> what would i like to see is saudi arabia ending their support for al qaeda, terrorist groups like al qaeda. neil: that is not what i asked. that is not what i asked. >> you're turning my words around. you're turning my words around. neil: i want to be very clear. you have, you have, higher opinion of iran than you do saudi arabia? >> no, not at all what i'm saying. neil: then explain. >> what i'm saying i'm focused how we best keep the american people safe. how we can make sure that we are, that we have our national security intact. neil: and saudis are a bigger threat, the saudis are a bigger

threat to that safety than iran? >> the saudis are sporting very terrorist group that attacked us on 9/11 and continues to pose a threat to the american people today. neil: so if the president were to take action against iran with or without saudi intelligence or help, that would be a bad move in your eyes? >> that would be a very bad move. it would not serve the interests of the united states. neil: we're hooking up with the wrong guys? former navy seal team six commander dave sears what do you think of that. >> no. iran is definitely a bigger threat than saudi arabia. saudi arabia is no saint. i don't think there are any saints in the middle east. so you're definitely getting into the mud with, you know, getting dirty. that said iran openly supports hezbollah. they openly support hamas. they openly support shia militias that kill u.s. soldiers. they openly support different, al qaeda. we know that they harbored and helped al qaeda as well.

they openly call for the destruction and complete obliteration of a nation and a country and its people, israel. they have attempted assassinations here in the united states. they have done things overseas in southeast asia with different assassination attempts. iran is certainly at the top of the list of the maligned players in the world, way ahead of saudi arabia. neil: could i maybe get your interpretation of some of these mixed messages we're getting out of washington on these attacks on iran? the pentegon is declining to say whether iran was behind those attacks. as you know secretary of state mike pompeo had said it is unequivocal at least to him that they were. what do you make of this? >> i don't see all the evidence. from what i can see it does look like it was iran or from what saudi arabia wants us to see it looks like it was iran. the missiles look like, they don't have the range to come from yemen. looks like they have videos of drones coming from the north.

yemen is to the south where the houthis are. all evidence points to iran. if it is acts of war if it is iran an act of war against the saudi arabia. i believe this is problem for saudi arabia to deal with, not the united states. neil: having said that dave, it was so easy if it was indeed iran to have done this, without a single soldier, a series of drones, almost topple a kingdom? got that close, certainly with the oil facilities they couldn't help themselves. we couldn't help them help themselves. what did you think of it all? >> absolutely. i'm not that familiar with saudi arabia's defense system and what they have set up -- neil: they clearly weren't ready for this. easy to be a monday morning quarterback but they were clearly not ready for a drone attack. >> because it is largely pointed south. they're trying to protect rocket attacks from yemen and houthis

there. if you have majority of equipment pointed south, you're not looking at iran then you will be open. i think they learned their lesson. that said as well, you have the problem with drones and ballistic missiles you can send them en masse. they can come under radar. things are not designed against them. it is problematic. they need different defense looks to mitigate it. neil: the pentagon is also saying right now they don't have any announcements on changes in troop levels in the region. i think they're talking about the region. does that surprise you at all? >> no. i wouldn't. what is going to happen, they should lay out to the president all the possible options. they need to consider if we do a, then the possibilities of b, c, d, and e exist. if we do b this could happen. they need to walk through the second, third order consequences of any actions this could likely be, if it is iran, they may want us to bait into attack against

them, gain sympathy from the world. we should take the opportunity here is the proof iran did it. leave iran entirely. get the national community condemn iran. let this backfire on them. neil: you would heighten the restrictions or trade sanctions, leave it at that for the time-being? >> for the time-being. there is also other covert things you can do that are below the radar i would look at. there are different cyber things. there are different pieces that would be below the radar, and not as visible i would also be looking at. neil: dave sears, thank you very much, my friend. good having. >> you thanks, neil. neil: we were talking about all the crosscurrent. dow is up 67 points. 10 of the 11 s&p 500 sectors are to the upside. the only one anomaly down is i stress nominally is oil. of stocks dow 30, 10 are in

negative territory, ones are up, up enough to offset the ones that are down. meanwhile amazon ceo jeff bezos is sending a message to the president saying he is going to go ahead to make a climate change pledge whether the president wants to or not. after this. a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. imagine a world where

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neil: facebook ceo mark zuckerberg is certainly making the round in washington, d.c. meeting with lawmakers. bipartisan effort for the lawmakers, democrats, republicans interested in reining in facebook and taking zuckerberg on his author last year to police an regulate his company. to democratic virginia senator mark warner who organized at least one of those meetings. good to see you. >> thanks, neil. neil: how did it go? >> i think it went pretty well. i've sown zuckerberg for a long time. facebook is aware of whole legislative ideas that i have.

i wanted to him to hear from variety of senators. some who have active positions. some who have not been active in this field. across the group that we were with last night. there were concerns about content issues. there were concerns about, privacy issues. there were concerns voiced about libra libra, the new cryptocurrency facebook is advocating. they realize failure to have federal legislation in this space will hurt them and the whole platform industry in the long run because as individual countries move on privacy was the way europe does or uk and individual states like california has, all we're doing is raising the floor. neil: so do you think facebook has gotten too big for its britches? >> i think i think there has never been companies like facebook and google, of such

size and power without any kind of regulatory oversight. i think ftc 5 billion-dollar fine they gave to facebook, while not largest fine ever, equivalent to a slap on the wrist because it was tiny percentage of revenue they made in a single quarter. i'm not yet with some of my friends who want to go straight to breakup. i am concerned. these are global companies. i don't want to transfer leadership to chinese companies but i do think we need a lot more transparency. we need to have privacy rights protected. we need increased competition, data portability and inneroperability. and one of the things we did talk to zuckerberg last night, there is a real debate about identity validation or authentication. we're concerned about some horrible, awful things posted on these platforms. if you had to put your real name or real identity, to own those comments that would be one tool to cut back on some of that

activity. neil: senator, if you don't mind my switching gears a little bit. >> sure. neil: we're getting mixed reads out of the administration whether iran was behind the attacks in saudi arabia. secretary of state mike pompeo yesterday said they were. the president seemed to move in that direction today. from the defense department, no such conclusions yet. do you think from the intelligence you have seen, i know you can't reveal everything, that iran was line this? >> neil, i heard your earlier guest, who i thought was very, very thoughtful. i think what we're seeing now some of the implications of a president sometimes tweets before he has all the facts and i think it is appropriate that the intelligence community is taking its time to nail down this case. i do believe that the houthis didn't have the capability to launch this type of an attack. does that therefore mean it was iran? let's let the intelligence

community finish its work but we're going into this with all of the world's leaders coming to new york next week for the u.n. general assembly. in a traditional case, if this had been president bush, president obama, president clinton, we could have gone to the world when we had this evidence, the rest of the world would accept this evidence. i think we would have united front if iran took this action. now it feels like it is us and saudi arabia. as your earlier guest mentioned this may have been an act of war against saudi arabia. but it was not an act of war against the united states. and again i don't think the president helped his position or our country's position when he was saying he was going to wait to hear from the kingdom of saudi arabia before he decided what we should do. we ought to be acting on our foreign policy for america's interest, not to protect saudi oil. neil: i think he was stipulating whether the iranians were behind it whether we have the wherewithal to see that.

-- tipping from the saudis. what do you make of that? >> i will not use the terminology. one of the things we continue to see from the saudis is that we sell them some of our best equipment but their ability to use that equipment in an effective way to protection their own country, for that matter they have been so inept of their conflict with the houthis, it is real challenges, really, really challenging. neil: okay. >> there has been other attacks against saudi facilities. they should have had better defense and better prepared. >> clearly right, they were not ready for this one. senator, always good speaking with you. thank you for taking the time. >> thank you, neil. neil: back to a political development we're following closely. a push for "medicare for all." what about the people that have private health insurance, they're okay with that? apparently a lot of these front running candidates on the democratic side are not. was ahead of its time.

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>> today we are announcing, the climate pledge. the climate pledge is to meet the goals of the paris agreement 10 years early. amazon becomes the first signatory. neil: but prime customers get it 15 years early. no, kidding. that was amazon's ceo announcing

corporate wide climate pledge to meet so-called goals of the paris accord this is the one president trump walked away from here, that it disproportionately put the burden on the united states to address issues far bigger in places like china and india. campus reform editor-in-chief abbott phillips, blake rutherford. cabot, this came out of the blue. i disagree with the approach this country has officially taken. i think, it is good corporate policy to do what i'm doing, what do you make of that. >> not totally out of blue which have 1000 employees in amazon up in seattle would walk out in pros of it amazon's climate policy. in their words not doing enough. neil: i didn't even know amazon had a climate policy one way or the other though? >> yeah. some of the employees are upset the way they were working with fossil fuels. they would still be working with fossil fuels. this is what the future looks like. this will be the first of many

announcements like we see from companies like amazon of the first off it is good press. obviously if you get a lot of free earned media there. also it comes down to, if you think climate change is a problem, what better way to combat it free individuals, private enterprise, people innovating from the free market coming out to helping push back against it. so i do think this is better solution than forced government intervention and again kudos to amazon putting their money where their mouth is, saying they think this is a problem, implementing steps to help fix it. neil: i wonder what the steps might be, blake? they ship a lot of goods all over the world. a lot of those are gas, fuel guzzling vehicles planes, jets, cargo, otherwise. they have to make good on that, right? >> certainly they do. i think amazon wanted to be the first mover here. i think you will see, and they have foreshadowed a little bit, greater investment in electric in terms of vehicle footprint. you're right, there is not a lot

of specialities in the pledge or amazon's plan. we'll learn more in weeks and months ahead. i want to go back to a point cabot made, you can certainly have both. this is very smart corporate policy from amazon. they're leading the way here. i still think though the united states needs to lead the way on the world stage. i think pulling out of the paris climate accord was a mistake. i think we'll see that reverse if administrations changed. but i also think we'll see corporations following amazon's lead here, in whatever way makes sense for them to address their carbon footprints. neil: gentlemen, if i can just switch topics here a little bit. there is a new fox poll shows bernie sanders support is rising. his signature policy is resonating includes this idea of "medicare for all." elizabeth warren has a separate version of that. they're kind of similar in that they would disband private health insurance as we know it, move everyone to this model. cabot what do you think? >> well, i think bernie sanders biggest contribution to the race

will end up being shifting to open window. three, four years ago a lot policies embraced on stage were considered extreme. now they're normal. there is ceiling for bernie sanders. we see him gaining steam in the polling. as long as elizabeth warren is in the race, he will find so many of his voters are far left progressive people. when it comes to "medicare for all," the rise, how quickly risen in popularity. part of it is message. people said you support "medicare for all" or you're not compassionate. if you don't support "medicare for all," that you support thousands of people dying in the streets. they don't know what the alternative. they are willing to embrace "medicare for all" kicking tens of millions of people off plans they like. we all know there is a problem. but they can't ignore the problem -- neil: they lost the house ignoring this issue, you're right about that. blake, there are a lot of people, democrats included who

have their own private plans, they might not all be tickled with them but they like them. >> right. neil: i'm wondering there is risk, a general election with elizabeth warren or bernie sanders are running that is going to come back to bite them, what do you think? >> i agree with you, neil. i think being for the elimination of private health insurance is not a winning strategy in a general election. i do think bernie sanders has already hit his ceiling. i think that elizabeth warren has some, has more manueverrability if she were to get the nomination, look, right now, joe biden is in the lead and joe biden is not for "medicare for all." he is for a public option. we remember how polarizing the public option was during the debate over the affordable care act. now a lot of people, not just democrats, a lot of, a lot of people in the country are for some form of a public option. you've seen senator biden, i mean vice president biden excuse me embrace that idea. you have seen mayor pete buttigieg embrace that idea

yesterday. "medicare for all" if you want it. otherwise your private insurance stays in place and affordable care act continues to be improved. that is more after strategy in the general election but you have to get through the primary. neil: "medicare for all" who want it, that might be a important distinction. blake, final word. i always appreciate both you guys. thank you very, very much. tomorrow you can get your hot little hands on them. i'm talking about the new iphone. all of this as huawei launches an attack on apple and promises some phones that have features that these apple new phones do not. after this. 48 bales. all before lunch, which we caught last saturday. we earn our scars. we wear our work ethic. we work until the work's done. and when it is, a few hours of shuteye to rest up for tomorrow, the day we'll finally get something done.

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neil: i think it is tomorrow you can get your hot little hands on that, the new iphone 11. it is due out tomorrow. orders, advance orders started last week but people can get them i believe in new york where they will open up the new apple store at the world's largest off of fifth avenue. they are expecting lines for

people to grab this puppy. now is it worth all of the hype you've been hearing especially on a day we're learning huawei is taking another step into 5g with mate 30 smartphones unveiled today. i have no idea what that means but apparently russ does. one of the smart evident people i know in this business and he speaks english even an idiot like me an cad. good to see you my friend. >> good to see you. neil: he has one of the hot little phones. what do you think? >> the big difference the three cameras in the back, that is the biggest jump here. apple knows at this point where phones differentiate themselves in the camera. you can say, hey, that is better picture i'm taking. that is -- neil: no one what does it sound like anymore, right? >> harder to differentiate this has better processer. battery is specifically better, three hours, four more hours per

day which is serious jump. i think that is where they're really differentiating this year. really going at these companies like samsung and huawei, are pushing camera as differentiate or. neil: galaxy samsung always had spear year camera. are you guys saying this is -- >> i am not a professor. i can do instagram. professors at this point there are moments you don't need a full size, sure if you want to take a photo from million miles away, close up you don't need a full-on dsr. neil: get out of here. >> it is great. neil: let me get your read what huawei is saying oh, they don't have 5g. we're saying we do. but 5g isn't around right now. >> that is the whole point. apple could jam 5g into the phones but wouldn't make a difference because we don't have towers. neil: wouldn't you want it ready

for that? >> it will not be ready until very earliest next year's model. neil: really? >> you would the not be able to take advantage of it, if these phones had them today, it wouldn't make a difference. neil: how do you think it is going to do then? it was supposed to be a placeholder for whatever comes out next year? >> i think it will do well. as you said, i don't think this is a huge, huge revamp for apple. this is the third model using this general basic design. so i think they're positioned to, as you said a place old -- holder of a pro line, appeals to people hey i want a high-end thing. these phone wars where people are picking sides, it which comes down to which ecosystem are you comfortable with? do you like apple doing with a more controlled walled system, they are like selected apps or prefer wide open what you're getting with an android phone? neil: you can with other phone

makers. apple is very proprietary. they don't like to share. >> they make a lot of money. neil: what would be the price of the most expensive model of the 11? >> the 11 pro max starts at $1100. neil: starts at 1100? >> starts at. as you increase storage capacity it goes up a little higher than that it's steep. here is what i'm going to say. the 11 which they launch tomorrow as well, the non-pro which comes at $700, the guts of that thing, it doesn't have as good after camera but the guts of it are effectively the same. it has the same processor. the same internals. so if you're to the going to obsess about the camera, you would be fine with the 11 at $700 which is a pretty good deal all things considered. neil: are people freaking out what is it called, the word for it three cameras, circles? >> people are afraid of holes. i don't remember the term, what you're referring to?

neil: yeah. are you, can you hold it up. >> there are certain people when they see holes for some reason there is like a phobia attached to that. neil: right. >> is that what is going on? doesn't bother me. i take photos. neil: weird things happen. i start liking cnbc. i'm kidding. you're the best my friend. he could explain that. i understand that. >> i try. neil: are there going to be long lines? >> it is apple. always long lines. no question. neil: market very, very well. thank you my friend, very, very much. that is an interesting development on the camera. another interesting development about israel, the election was essentially a draw. prime minister netanyahu is reaching out to the guy that got a few more votes than he is talking about a coalition government. benjamin netanyahu wants to lead the coalition government. the other guy does not. we'll have more after this.

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so, i'll wake up ready for anything? oh, we've got your back. so, you can really promise better sleep? not promise... prove. and now save up to $500 on select sleep number 360 smart beds. only for a limited time. neil: republicans looking to enhance the so-called squad, divide the democrats, cut up the opposition. charlie gasparino. what is going on? >> this is rumor mill of republican operatives and congressional operatives how the republicans are going to try to win in 2020. one way they are going to do it, clearly donald trump sees mileage on this new kavanaugh book that is a lot of stuff he can bring up and attack the reporters and "new york times" and associate them with the democratic left of the party, that hates certain people, hates, wants to put your male children in jail. that is essentially from what i hear you're looking at, framing that issue. this issue is different. this is issue i hear republican

operatives are talking about, some sort of a super-pac that is being bandied about, to raise money, this is a super-pac run by a wealthy business individual, just speculation we're hearing. i haven't been able to nail this down, but my source is congressman, just so you know, i won't say who it is. neil: i bet i can get you to say it. >> maybe off-camara and off mic. neil: we're off-camara now. >> you remember that connie chung, newt gingrich, you can whisper in my ear. he called her a -- but in any event they're raising money to enhance, enhance the profile of the squad, to make them the face of the democratic party, not to attack them, to make them the face. so trump can turn around look, you want to vote for joe biden or elizabeth warren, these are the folks you're actually voting for, the most radical left-wing congresspeople there are. neil: whether you like or

dislike that approach, the democratic candidates are parroting a lot of their positions. >> they are. but they are so anti-israel and so radical on some other issues that, you know, republicans believe if they can enhance their profile and attach whoever they got to them, they can make some, they can make some hay out of it. neil: switch gears to at&t and directv. >> i want to say this you know, because we broke the story. i want to say that "the wall street journal," the editor there who went to my wedding, matt murray, reporters, probably good reporters but they couldn't wear my jockstrap as a reporter or hold it is is the term. neil: where are we going? >> here is the thing. they won't cite us breaking the story two days ago but it was my producer, lydia moynihan who beat the hell out of "the wall street journal" and at least i know they're mad that 14 years ago i left them in the dust, that i went to work other places including here but get over it!

give lydia, you took her story! neil: you know there are corporate -- >> i'm saying you took her story. give her credit. neil: what is the story, bottom line? >> bankers, by the way, there is no deal. bankers are inundating at&t and randall stephenson, ceo with proposals to sell directv. it comes on heels -- neil: lose subscribers. >> losing subscribers. elliot management -- neil: i read the journal story. i'm kidding. >> i broke it on your -- are you feeling okay? i broke it here. neil: i don't know how much more you can destroy your career. >> it is not my career. i'm saying give the kid a break. she beat matt. she beat you. just give her credit! neil: we all breathe the same air. >> listen when they break stories, "wall street journal" does this, we say it. right? don't we? neil: well, i don't know. >> headlines, "wall street journal" every day.

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neil: all right. we got microsoft hitting new highs, could climb even higher, and vocal support for this new mexico canadian trade deal. so far, no votes are coming and that worries folks who have been paying attention to what is happening with the china deal, but paying little attention to one that would have a more immediate impact. meanwhile, we are focusing on what's going on in israel and benjamin netanyahu making an offer to the guy who technically got more votes, maybe they can cobble together a coalition government. here's the thing. netanyahu wants to be the guy heading it. the guy who beat him is saying just the opposite. we'll see how that goes. prime minister trudeau of canada, another picture surfaced. you see how that goes. we're on top of that.

i don't think he knows how to play the game very well. they've raised too fast. i've been saying this openly. and they've lowered too slow. and he took 25, some people were hoping for 50. he took 25. so i'm not thrilled with the fed but despite that, we have an incredible economy and we don't have inflation. >> chairman powell's job is safe? >> it's safe. yeah. it's safe. i mean, sure. why not? he's got a job. i'm disappointed in him. i'm very disappointed. >> the economy is booming, why do we need a bigger cut than a quarter point? >> i think, look, we certainly welcomed a 25 basis points cut but what the president has been calling for is a level playing field with our trading partners and competitors.

neil: i don't know how the vice president comes up with it. what the president meant to say. welcome back. the president not happy with the fed's latest quarter point move, one that might be telegraphing no immediate followup moves for the time being. the president says that's not a good idea as the europeans are able to work their very very weakened currencies the a trade advantage that we do not enjoy. those economies aren't exactly firing on all cylinders. let's bring in our panel right now. karen kerrigan, mike murphy and camela chain. he's not letting go. no cuts, no glory, no sense, et cetera. but he moves on. >> he moves on. but if you remember, back early this year, when the president first came out and said the fed was talking about raising rates, the president came out and said no, the exact opposite, they should be cutting rates. at the time we all kind of looked at each other like what is he saying, where is this coming from. now when you look, let's give the president credit on that.

neil: absolutely. even the fed has acknowledged they overdid it. >> they overdid it. now they are correcting it. i think the president will stick with his rhetoric of trying to keep his foot on the pedal or on the fed, if you will, but they are going to be data dependent. if the market -- if the data calls for another rate cut, we will get it. if it doesn't, we're good where we are. neil: i don't know how close you follow some of these feds funds futures contracts. i bore myself even talking about it. that's not the first time. but the expectation of immediate cuts has been reduced to under 50%. how do we interpret that? the market is just saying maybe the fed, take the fed at its word this is it for awhile? >> i think so. i think we have to take the fed chairman's word, period, in terms of -- neil: to mike's point, the fed did admit botching it. >> and the fact they are going to be data dependent, they will have a wait and see attitude about the evolving risk picture. neil: is there a risk easing too much? >> you know, yeah.

there may be. but i think there's just too many variables right now. obviously what's happening on the trade front, are we going to be getting a deal or not with china, what's going to happen with usmca. some of the geopolitical tensions and things that we see happening around the world, how that's going to impact, continue to impact global growth and business investment. but you know, i think this wait and see attitude, if you look at the housing numbers, if you look at the manufacturing numbers, that sort of supports the fed sort of wait and see data dependent view, i think. look, we can have a trade deal right away. business investment might turn around very very quickly. but again, it's sort of the wait and see. >> that's kind of the thing, if they botched it in the past and a lot of people see and agree that they did, then they pretty much or the chairman at least was saying yesterday they really don't, to karen's point, know what's going on now. neil: they know it's affecting cfos, ceos -- >> that's true.

i should say they don't know what's going to happen next. a lot of that is dependent, to me at least, a lot of that is dependent on trade policy which is jay powell said over and over to make us understand they don't control that which we get. but there could be some sort of change or china deal, whatever the case may be. that does change their outlook. you know, saying we are dependent on data, we don't know what will happen next -- [ speaking simultaneously ] >> you bring up the fed funds futures contract, i think you can take that and throw it out the window. neil: which is why i mentioned it. >> it's really, for sure -- neil: looking how volatile that is, too. >> we don't have to say dot plot as much. >> what we are pricing in nine months from now, it's not going to work out that way. a lot of things could happen that could change the fed's stance. let's wait until we get that happening. neil: we don't have time to wait, young man. i want to bring mark hamrick

into this, bankrate senior economic analyst. mark, what do you make of this back-and-forth between the president and the federal reserve? obviously no love lost there. the president was asked whether you are going to keep the guy and all. the president can't fire him, i guess, unless he does a crime or there's malfeasance there. he has to deal with it, right? >> well, i think jerome powell is going to continue to do the job that he thinks he needs to do, as do the other members of the federal reserve board and the fomc. neil: that's a divided board, isn't it? >> it is. yeah. neil: including one who wanted a bigger cut. >> i think we have gone from divided america to divided fomc. we had five people who thought rates are now too low based on the dot plot. so to your earlier point about trying to price in what happens from here, i do think that it's entirely dependent on such things as u.s./china negotiations. by the way, we have a hard brexit that's right over the hood of the car here which

although it's been widely predicted and we know if it's going to be like the y2k bug and nothing significant happens or not, but there are plenty of risks that remain very much right in front of us. neil: i'm wondering, given the strength of the economy, given the housing, housing starts, existing home sales, mortgage refinancing, you could make the argument this is a big mistake what we're doing. >> what, in terms of cutting rates? neil: yes. >> you know, we'll have to see. i think it was sort of baked in, you know, cable a couple of wee. neil: but the markets are leading the fed. >> they are. i guess it goes to show you how difficult their job has become in terms of looking at all these different factors and you know, when you look at if we get a china -- if usmca passes, if we get -- neil: it's looking doubtful? >> i think usmca -- i'm not going to make any definite

predictions but usmca is looking pretty good in terms of what we are hearing on the hill, what we are seeing on the hill. there's pressure on a lot of those members of congress, house members who just won, who want to bring home victory for their farmers, for their tech community, for their small businesses, and i think this is one thing that the house democrats will give to the president as a victory but look, the evolving risk picture as jerome powell says, we'll have to see what happens on china as well but i think we are all going to get a deal on that. so that could help business investment which could help drive growth but then you get into the 2020 election and where is the business community and ceos going to be on that in terms of their view, the outlook -- neil: a lot of them are hunkering down for something. the ceos. >> yeah. >> we are also trying to figure out how that community and

consumers will respond to whatever happens on policy. sometimes it's not as predictable as we think. it's taken housing awhile to show the numbers that we saw today on existing home sales. they are actually expected to be down. it was a surprise that they went up. t there have been questions for weeks and weeks hey, if rates are so low, why aren't more people buying a house. now maybe they are. so the response has become more predictable on that front, then it will be a little easier to put policy in play. i think a lot of people would have thought the consumer would have slowed down but a lot of retailers, a lot of companies have not been able to pass along, you know, the tariffs, so prices have stayed low, consumers have stayed humaninhu. it's been difficult to predict things. neil: do you buy that, mark, when you hear ceos and the cfos are concerned about these headwinds, trade headwinds, the very headwinds that fed chairman

jerome powell alluded to in justifying the courts we did see and that it's affecting their expansion plans, cap spending, hiring, and you know, average consumers hear that, say boy, my boss is hunkering down, maybe i should be hunkering down. you see any sense of that or chance of that? >> i think there's a pretty good chance if i go down on the street now and ask people what their personal reaction is to the business roundtable ceo survey, they will ask me to keep moving down the sidewalk. neil: i was doing just that yesterday. it was annoying. you're right. >> but having said that, obviously it differs sector to sector. at the end of the day, what ceos need to do is deploy capital based on the demand they're seeing and the outlook for demand. they don't want to get ahead of that. they don't want to get behind that because that's lost opportunity. the reality is the global environment has worsened and we do have these headwinds that are directly correlated to the u.s./china situation.

those are real things. but having said that, if you are apple and unveiling a new iphone and you think people want to buy it, you're not going to scale back simply because that is a risk. neil: i just wonder the fallout here. if people get a sense that a slowdown is coming, and we haven't, you know, the business cycle, they will pounce on anything, right? if we don't see any evidence of it, to connell's earlier point, i'm wondering how that plays for the president. in other words, is he setting this up as if something goes afoul here, don't say i didn't warn you and mention the fact this bonehead at the federal reserve, to quote the president, screwed it up? >> yeah. yes, i think from what you say, if the economy goes bad and if it's hurting the general public in their pocketbook, if they don't have money to spend, the president will take the fall for that. he can try to blame it but people will look at the person in charge, at the president. that will affect him negatively

in the election. i think when you look now, we have been hearing people talk about recession for the last six months. and i have come on here and said a recession will come at some point but i don't see anything out there right now that tells me recession is coming. if you look at fed ex's numbers, fed ex has been impacted by a lot of the trade war with china. but there are so many companies, venture capital investors see so many u.s.-focused companies that are expanding rapidly that are doing great. the economy right now -- neil: very good point. >> -- is doing very well. even look at retail. some retailers are doing great. some aren't doing great. that's what we want in the market. there will be winners and losers. neil: to that point, final question on this, this notion that, and i think the president raised it i think last week, where a lot of companies will seize on the trade war as an excuse for a bad quarter or, you know, slowing revenue, much like retailers used to do and blame the rain or the weather for a bad quarter but never crediting the sun if it was a good quarter.

is that going to happen here? do you have to look at these numbers and guidance reports we're getting with a grain of salt? what do you think? >> trust but verify. some caution is absolutely advised, as you say, when you get concern about whether expressed by a retailer, you are wondering well, we all have to go outside. but when we see the ism manufacturing number move into contraction territory, that's real. all those indicators were negative. neil: all right. thank you very much. final word on the subject. also, getting some news, more hawkish comments coming out of the iranians. don't even think about targeting them. a warning now that it's all-out war if we do. after this.

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neil: all right. we've still got that power struggle going on in israel. benny gantz declaring victory. the center right party that says that benjamin netanyahu's time has come and gone. fox news on the latest back and forth on all of this from jerusalem. trey, what's going on now? reporter: after extremely tight elections, israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu, according to the numbers we have now, will lose two seats, be two seats down from his main opponent, benny gantz of the blue and white party. these two candidates actually met today for the first time in months at a ceremony marking the anniversary of former prime minister peres's death. in between them was israeli president rivlin, who will give one candidate the nod, likely next week, to start building a government. until then, both gantz and netanyahu will continue meeting with smaller parties to ask for support. netanyahu, who is facing charges of corruption and bribery, could face jail time if he is not elected prime minister and able to pass an immunity law.

the urgency was seen today as he called for a unity government with his main rival, something he campaigned against doing. meanwhile, if gantz gets the support of former defense minister lieberman, who will control eight israeli knesset seats, he will increase his chance to become prime minister. >> translator: i want to set a liberal unity government headed by me, a government that will manifest the will of the people and fulfill promises to the public. reporter: to give you a sense of the pressure netanyahu is facing here in israel, he has canceled his annual trip to the u.n. general assembly in new york next week as he tries to look for new ways to out-maneuver his main opponent, benny gantz. neil: thank you, my friend, very much. meanwhile, mixed messages from the pentagon as to who was behind these attacks on saudi arabia. you might recall the secretary of state mike pompeo said all signs point to iran. the pentagon not so sure.

those mixed reads, these are the people advising the president how to respond as well. hudson institute senior fellow rebecca heinrich. what do you make of the defense and state department on different pages here? >> well, secretary of defense esper is the new secretary of defense and i think we are seeing him defer a lot of questions to the state department to take the lead on this. but as soon as you come out and attribute and blame, then you need to respond in some way. i don't think that the government is clear about how we want to respond, which of our allies and partners are going to be with the united states if we do pursue a particular response. that's why you are seeing a little bit of a dance and back-and-forth. at some point once they come to the conclusion this is the path we want to take, they have to be on the same page with one united voice and explain how they know that it was the iranians in some greater detail that we can actually get a coalition to go in and take care of the problem. neil: you talk about a coalition. the president has argued as

recently as last week saying whatever we do, i'm sorry, this week, that it's got to be proportionate. in other words, if they take out saudi oil fields, maybe we entertain the same with iran. i think that was the gist of what he said. obviously that would boomerang on the western world. he's got to be careful. how do you think this all goes down? >> yeah. i do think that on this particular -- this particular response, the saudis do have to take the lead. this was their oil, this was their country, their soil, so we can't get out ahead of what the saudis are willing to do. the saudis seem to be a little bit uncertain about taking the diplomatic lead, being the ones, the real face of the military response, but again, this is their hterritory, their soverein nation. a major theme of the trump administration has been these are sovereign nations, so sovereign nations have to defend themselves. this is why we sold the sachudi so much military weaponry so they can provide defense of themselves. then the u.s. government, obviously we do have some interest in the global energy

market but as we become more energy independent, it isn't a direct line to what is clearly american interests, it's more of a jagged line which is why we need to have a spoupporting rol not being out front, and letting the saudis take the lead. neil: rebeki have my panel with. we always talk about black swan developments, something out of the blue that changes the tenor of the market. is this that? >> i don't think so. a lot of times with black swans, they happen because we don't see them coming. so with what's happening right now, i think right now it's contained so let's leave it there. could it mushroom into something else? yes. could it mushroom to all-out war? it could. but if it's just as it is right now, then no. >> doesn't that play into how the response should be put together? if you are, if you are responding in a proportional way as the president suggested, what does iran do after that?

because you're not necessarily dealing with a rational actor. what if you respond in a proportional way, then supposedly it's 1-1 on the scorecard but that doesn't mean iran leaves it there. you could make the situation worse. right? >> that's right. that's why i think the military planners are looking at secondary effects and what happens and what are we prepared to help the saudis defend against, if it is the saudis that are taking the lead. i would think if you are the saudi government, you are thinking about proportionality, you are thinking about attacking again the equivalent for the iranians their mechanism, their oil refineries or something like that which we're already sanctioning so much, which is why they are lashing out to try to gain leverage so the united states drops sanctions before we come to the negotiating table which this president has said he isn't going to do. the other response i would say is supposedly i have heard rumors that we were watching the iranians prepare to launch this attack which is why a piece of the evidence we know that it was them. if that's the case, we can help

the saudis target whatever weapons they used to launch, whether it's ground-based cruise missiles or uavs, if we saw them before they launched them, we know how to reach out and destroy those. that could be another proportional response. neil: you wouldn't be hitting oil, you would be hitting drones in that case, right? >> drones or if they were cruise missiles, which is another important point to know that the amount of damage that these cruise missiles if they were cruise missiles and uavs caused to these vulnerable oil refineries, americans and our allies need to make sure we deploy the right ground-based and missile defense systems, air defense systems, and that they have 360 degree radar so that we can see what's coming and be able to provide some level of protection whenever they have such enormous strategic impact if these cruise missiles can target them. neil: that might avoid the oil shakeup. thank you very, very much. i appreciate it, as always. we are getting some more details on this american airlines mechanic tampering with

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neil: all right. that didn't take long. nike has dropped antonio brown amid sexual assault allegations. i guess not a shock. what do you make of this? >> it's always interesting when we cover these types of stories in the past about how companies make decisions about who to stick with and who not to as a professional athlete or celebrity or whatever the case may be. you know, to be overly cynical about it, i would doubt as good a player antonio brown is a terrific football player, i would doubt even in his best days that antonio brown is selling a lot of sneakers, selling a lot of apparel for nike in the same way that other troubled athletes, obviously different types of trouble in the past. tiger woods and others. neil: different case. >> better for the business, in other words. >> easier decision for them?

>> i think so. neil: do you buy that? >> i do. it seems like they do take a stand on certain cases and not so much a stand in other cases. you know, it's their business. they have the right to do it how they choose. but he has a lot of issues that seem to continually pop up. but i don't know that anything's been proven yet or any real charges -- neil: patriots are still with him. >> he wins games or helps win games. if you help win games, you will be forgiven in sports. to nike's point of view, again, i don't know the analysis of what they do but i doubt he's selling a lot of apparel directly. the way he's helping the patriots. >> knowing coach belichick, if there was something proven that he did wrong, he wouldn't be on the team. neil: interesting. all right. we will follow that, obviously. meanwhile, investigators now believe this american airlines mechanic, remember the guy who was allegedly sabotaging the

plane? apparently he might have had ties to isis. phil keating has more from miami. reporter: until yesterday, this case never involved any allegation of a terrorism-related motive, yet u.s. prosecutors are now suggesting that, laying out their evidence in court yesterday and the result, bond denied. the american airlines mechanic accused of sabotaging a commercial airliner with 150 passengers on board, had a detention hearing yesterday in the federal magistrate ordered abdul alani to remain behind bars, saying she has evidence to suggest he could be sympathetic to terrorists. in court, prosecutors revealed that fbi agents found isis videos on his phone showing graphic killings and that he forwarded one video to somebody with the urging for allah to take revenge against all non-muslims. according to a co-worker, alani told him his brother was in iraq and a member of isis.

he flew to baghdad in march to visit which the fbi says he lied about. in july, the miami to nassau flight turned back before taking off after an error light with the navigation system appeared in the cockpit. according to the pilot, without a functioning navigation system it would have resulted in a crash. defense attorneys say that is not true, as a second navigation system still worked and the government is simply blowing this case out of proportion. his family flew into miami for yesterday's bond meeting, saying nothing to the media. the 60-year-old was born in iraq and is a naturalized u.s. citizen. he is charged with one count of willfully damaging, destroying or disabling an aircraft. he admits he sabotaged the plane. did it again yesterday in court, telling investigators he was upset with stalled contract negotiations between his union and american, and he thought if he could force the plane back to fix the mechanical problem he would be the mechanic getting more work, thus more overtime, which in fact, did happen.

if convicted, he faces a maximum prison sentence of 20 years. he will be back downtown miami in u.s. courthouse for his arraignment. he will have to enter a plea of guilty or not guilty, and we will be there. neil: thank you, my friend. phil keating on the latest developments here. meantime, if you want to get strikers to start solving the gm worker outage, you could just take away their health benefits and force the issue. they just did that. after this. ♪ limu emu & doug and now for their service to the community, we present limu emu & doug with this key to the city. [ applause ]

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neil: all right. this gm strike now reaching day four. gm is reportedly, reportedly because this has been disputed in some counts, dropping health care for those striking workers. grady trimble is in detroit with the latest. grady? reporter: yeah, we will get to that but first, we are starting to see the ripple effects of this strike. navistar international, that company makes trucks, commercial trucks for general motors, we are hearing reportedly that they are going to have to stop production of those trucks in the coming days if this strike continues. the problem is, according to reports, they're not getting the parts they need to make those trucks. now, separately, this whole ordeal is becoming more and more political. senator amy klobuchar is the latest of the presidential candidates to stop by. she brought doughnuts and coffee to the strikers and told them

she's standing with them while talks continue. in those talks, we are told a main sticking point has been gm's production in mexico. while gm points out it has more than three times the number of employees here in the states as it does in mexico, it does make many popular models here that americans then buy. when i asked the senator about that, she took the opportunity to take a swipe at the president. >> part of this is the president claims he was going to be this master deal maker and be able to open more plants, not have them close. that hasn't happened. the bigger issue today is how these companies are going to pay these workers. that's why they're striking. that's about their benefits and then it's about their health care and that is about their wages. that's what this is about today. reporter: as you mentioned, gm stopped paying for health care for striking workers. we are told now that means the union has to pick up the tab, further draining its emergency

strike fund and causing confusion and concern among the employees. neil? neil: grady, thank you very, very much. mike murphy, what do you think of this, playing hardball here? >> they are. both sides will dig in but eventually a deal will get done. gm needs the workers to go to work and make their cars and the workers need their paycheck to earn a living. it will get done. both sides will give a little bit and a deal will get done. right now, i think you feel for the workers and you feel for their needs and their needs have to get met, so if more manufacturing comes back into the u.s., if that's ultimately what it's about, a lot of times with unions there's different pieces, different bargaining things you are bargaining for. if it's about jobs coming back to the u.s., i support it. neil: you think about it, karen, you are an expert on this, lot of small businesses are attached to this in one way, shape or form. what hits these workers hits them. if it goes on much further. >> it hits gm, it hits navistar, all these companies. they have small suppliers who

are impacted by all this. it seems like there's enough pressure on everyone now between the unions, gm and everyone else as mike said to get a deal. i think a deal will get done. neil: the health care thing. >> that is hardball. that definitely is. now with the union, if they have to pick up this tab, obviously it's another incentive for everyone to get back to the table and get a deal done. >> big picture, though, we talked about this the last few days, it is not as big a story as it was 20 years ago. in 1998, the numbers showed that the gm strike shaved something like half a point off the gdp. whereas gm is a much smaller company, fewer workers now. so not that it's not a big story, it's something we need to watch but from a macro perspective, it's certainly a smaller story than it was then. neil: know what i wonder about? i get that, you know, it isn't what it would have been and has in the past been, but i am curious about whether it's true, the attack line that the workers, the strikers, are using that they have not been able to share in the profits of gm since

it was rescued. i thought they were sharing, just they weren't getting as much as they thought, and now as the company's fortunes turn south, now they want -- whatever, i'm not here to take sides, i'm wondering if that hurts their argument now. >> i don't think it does. these are mostly blue collar workers that are looking for a bigger slice of the pie. it's not -- neil: they do get a percentage of profit sharing, right? they argue it's too low. >> they want more. they want to go back to the table. they negotiate a contract, and the contract is signed, now they are looking to renegotiate. i tend to, again, i was mentioning off camera, my father was part of the sandhogs union. i support from that standpoint but a lot of times, everyone wants more but sometimes there's not enough more to go around. if it's fair -- neil: would they have been wiser doing this even a couple years ago? >> so it's a very large union, they go out there and want to renegotiate. i'm more from the stance of if you feel you are not getting

paid enough in your job, you can go find a better paying job elsewhere, if that's what you want. a lot of times it's not necessarily the parent company or the big corporation's job to meet your demands. if it doesn't work for you, in this country you can work elsewhere. >> you talk about economic timing. i wonder if the political timing is more on their side. i was struck by what grady reported with amy klobuchar and all these democratic candidates for president coming out, showing their face and obviously traditionally over the years, been big supporters of the unions. but so on these issues that we are talking about is this president, right? in many ways it reminds me of the trade discussions we have that who is more against gm moving to mexico and all the rest than president trump. so you could argue that both sides of the aisle politically, at least on many of the issues, seem to be on the side of the workers. i don't know how if at all that will affect the dynamic but it is interesting. neil: guys, thank you very much. we will watch this very closely. we are getting differing reports as to all strikers, whether their health insurance is being taken away.

there's a separate report i believe in the detroit news that has some. bottom line, they are playing hardball. meanwhile, microsoft boosting its dividend, in and out of being a trillion dollar company following the likes of apple. that's giving the stock a major boost. it was helping the dow a lot more. there are some other issues at play here. after this. at fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. that's why your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. of the value you'll find at fidelity. i'm working to treat every car like i treat mine. adp helps airtech automotive streamline payroll and hr, so welby torres can achieve what he's working for. "have you lost weight?" of course i have- ever since i started renting from national.

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neil: all right. we know what took the wind out of the market's sails, donald trump's key adviser on china, michael pillsbury, saying the president is ready to escalate the trade war if a deal is not agreed to soon. apparently that would include upping the tariff ante, if you will. gerri willis, two words, not good, right? gerri: not good at all. we have lost about 60 points. we went briefly negative during the break here. we are back in positive territory. i can tell you what traders are talking to me about is a headline in the china global

times that the chinese are not as anxious for a deal as the white house thought they were. so when that came out, and it came out on one of the wire services specifically for traders, those stocks started going down and everybody started talking about this headline. this is something that always moves the market. let me get you to microsoft, hitting an all-time high today after the company announced it plans to buy back as much as $40 billion in stock and raise its dividend 11%, maintaining its record of sharing its cash forward with shareholders. shares popping, making microsoft the biggest publicly traded company with a market cap of , $1,075,000. the company will raise dividend five cents a share to 11% above the prior quarter's payout. this marks the third time a buy-back plan has been authorized this big. meanwhile, airbnb looking to ipo

they ca next year. the company is yet to file a public registration statement. we do know it plans to come to market sometime in 2020. many expect the company to come to market as a direct listing. we have seen that before. notably, airbnb has said its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortiization making it very unusual down here. neil: apologize for the confusion on that graphic. it made it look like the dividend was going up from five cents to 51 cents a share. represents about a 10% increase. i want to be very clear. that would have been a big number to go from 5 to 51 but it's not. just calm down. you are doing well. just maybe not nearly as well as that graphic intimated. more after this. ♪ ♪

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neil: all right. it took some of the steam out of the market here. we are getting more details in about whether these chinese talks look promising or they don't. a lot of comments to the press. back with connell mcshane on that. you are learning some new developments. >> gerri alluded to this. two guys have an inside track supposedly, investors think they do, that's why you get reaction to what pillsbury says and also -- neil: he's like a trade negotiator. >> yeah, and also, you know, is close to the president, the administration, is on the inside on these talks. the editor in chief of the "global times" now has become this huge market mover, everything the guy tweets, and it was 20 minutes ago -- neil: supposed to represent the views of china. >> a mouthpiece for the government there. the last part of this tweet is what got people. he said that officials in the u.s. easily misread china's good will, they think it shows weakness. he says china doesn't like talking tough before negotiations but this is the

part, he says, and i quote, i know china's not anxious to reach a deal as the u.s. side thought. that's what people look at. they say well, okay, maybe they don't want to cut a deal or quote unquote, give in on these issues, some sort of interim or short-term deal, things that have been talked about the last few weeks. neil: so as if we needed any more reminders that trade dictates the mood of these markets. >> it does. i think for people at home watching your show, they need to realize that these 80 point or 100 point or 300 point swings in the market are being driven by algorithmic trading. they are programs that react, buy or sell based on words. if you are managing your own portfolio at home, don't try to trade based on twitter headlines, because you are going to end up losing. i think the bigger picture here is that a deal hopefully will get done, some sort of a trade deal and if it doesn't, i think, you know, the u.s. economy is doing well, the stock market is 1% off all-time highs so you know, if we have to continue down this road, i guess we can

do it. neil: what do you think, karen? >> well, i think the emotional reaction of the marketplace responding to a lot of noise right now. neil: it's uncanny. it's like this abusive relationship we have with an issue. >> i know. i know. you know, i just think, you know, it's going to continue. who has the upper hand in these trade negotiations, right? neil: who does? >> i still think the u.s. does have the upper hand in terms of our, you know, sort of the state of our economy right now, and i do think there will be a deal that will be done. who knows why the chinese may be doing this and our friend, you know, leading up to the anniversary there in china -- neil: october 1. >> so but i think -- neil: this is going on as the negotiators, subnegotiators are yapping, right? >> they are in washington now.

mike would probably know more about this, i wonder whether the market continues to underestimate, sometimes we talk about the no-deal brexit, if the market continues to kind of assume there's a deal to be made and doesn't give enough credence to the idea that no deal by the 2020 election is a real possibility. obviously people think that's possible but i don't know if the percentage is high still. >> a lot of times the market will talk about things like y2k and brexit and these big upcoming events that really are driving the market movement. i think ultimately, the market is driven by corporate earnings and profits by u.s. corporations, and as long as those continue to hold steady or increase, i think we're good where we are. neil: until this is a worry. is it for you a worry? >> i think it's company-specific when you get to that point because fed ex no longer delivers for amazon. you walk down the street, you

see amazon boxes everywhere and fed ex isn't handling that anymore. they may need the u.s./china or china business more than certain other companies. i think ultimately, if you talk about the s&p 500, there are plenty of those 500 companies that are doing great right now. neil: what do you think? >> well, you know, again, it all goes back to business investment. we did have that drop in business investment for the first time in three years last quarter, and if you continue to have this uncertainty, it is going to negatively impact -- neil: but is it as big as it's been portrayed to be? >> it depends. it's sector-specific. it's business perspective. but i do think, you know, just the overall competence of the business sector and how they drive business investment is just very important, trade is a driver of that in terms of access to the markets and trade in general. >> that brings up a really interesting point about fed ex, right, because that's one of many examples about how the world is different now, and sometimes you talked about this

earlier, how these historical norms or comparisons we want to use to say what's going to happen next may not apply, whereas fed ex has always been a leading indicator of world trade, global trade, that maybe because of its company-specific issues -- neil: it scares people to believe in things that disproportionately impact some of the transports that it makes people think oh, my gosh. >> yeah, i know everyone doesn't want to go down the road and say it's different this time, but you know, in some cases it really is different this time because the world changes. amazon wasn't there when we made these comparisons in the past. i don't know. >> full disclosure, we bought fed ex yesterday on the selloff that came to the stock. but you don't get a lot of guarantees in this business. i will give you one. if we do get a trade deal, the market will have something -- we will have something else to talk about, another concern for the market. neil: if the president were to up the ante and say they're doing this, i'm going to do this, then it's a self-fulfilling prophesy. >> it is. i'm saying go the other route. if we get an agreement there will be something else out there.

neil: right. you're right. you are still bullish. nothing has changed on that front. >> until something changes, i'm bullish. neil: that's not answering my question. >> nothing has changed. headlines changing but right now i think the u.s. economy is what i'm focused on. it's doing well. neil: you like the overall macro picture? >> yeah. i do. i like main street. we deal with entrepreneurs and small business owners. their confidence is still very very high. and their financials look very good. their biggest problem continues to be the labor market and finding the people that they need to expand their businesses. neil: unthinkable nice problem to have. all right. final word on this subject. i want to thank karen, connell, mike. great job, all. we are still keeping an eye on this. the markets are algorithmically reassessing that and saying what are we all worried about. after this. imagine traveling hassle-free with your golf clubs.

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neil: all right. not as much of a worry, the dow down 33 point. we're getting constructive talk what the chinese delegation plans to do when it is here. including visiting some farms that could be good. charles, good to see. >> thank you, neil. i'm charles payne. this is "making money". more evidence that the economy remains on fire. the weakest link, manufacturing and housing appears to be turning the corner. we have the experts here to break down investing once we cleared those milestones because new highs usually beget new highs. the showdown countdown is on. we have congressman matt gaetz if congress will do what it can to keep the government open. maybe some want it closed t would be open only two month. trump versus california again. what the president is doing to stop the statero