iran is so broke as the president said they were trying to get their oil back some way on the market taking out saudi arabia's. david: they will not deal with any markets with the central bank in this position. neil cavuto here to take it through the next hour. what a wild hour it will be. neil: neil. neil: i think you're right. we're waiting the president, his counterpart, australia prime minister scott morrison. as david pointed out, they already had a lengthy exchanges with a lot of reporters with the president answering a lot of reporters questions with late developments. you can see that in the east room of the white house, reporters getting a chance to answer questions again. there will be a state dinner for the australian prime minister for the prime minister and his wife. last time the prime minister was feet -- getted was john howard

by president bush. have a listen. >> always prepared, never haas been a country more prepared. i spent, i spent 1 1/2 trillion dollars. we're spending another $738 billion now. i spent 1 1/2 trillion dollars rebuilding our military. obviously china is a threat to the world in a sense because they're building a military faster than anybody. and frankly they're using u.s. money. neil: all right. so the president linking these two developments. keeping an eye on both, iran and china, two very different cases to say it mildly, the target of iran is its central bank. iran is all about black markets. doesn't deal traditional fashion shipping out money. the central bank, trying to freeze assets coming in and out

of there, the flow of funds there, might do that in the sort of the official diplomatic way but the fact of the matter, iran is notorious for finding end-runs around that, working with other countries that help them find end-runs around that. we'll get the sense what this means with former trump foreign policy advisor, national security analyst, walid phares. can you explain to me speeds targeting the central bank we have toughest sanctions in effect already with iran, how does that changes things? what is he doing here? >> it will change many things. it may iran financial regime, iran revolutionary guard, it may not cut the ties between iran and russia, china, the other countries that are helping iran but what we can do is send a very strong message to you, iranian feature, to the middle class, industrialists, labor.

once united states and allies sanction the central bank, the trust of many iranians in that government is going to go down. that would be an opening for domestic activity by the opposition. neil: treasury secretary steve mnuchin said we're cutting off all sources of funds to iran but as you educated me in past iran is clever in a black market that avoids substantial editing because they suspected something like this was afoot. for years they found ways to make and get money through other nefarious means. how do you think this will impact them? >> that is a central component of every equation regarding iran. you just summarized it now, there are two irrans. two economies in iran. you have the normal economy, we are hitting that. it's a circle, they have the cash, money, iran controls many

banks and have connections with many countries around the world but having said that they also have very vivid opposition. this country or regime is not loved by everybody inside of iran. we're trying to cut off iran from everything they have but cut off the regime from the majority of the people inside iran. neil: walid it is a dumb question, you've been very patient over the years when i ask them, when you are telling other countries to stop doing business, shut down financing arms, that feed the central bank, essentially the way you wire and transfer funds much like people do between a checking or savings account between one state versus another, one major international bank versus another, you have to depend on those entities to make good on that, right? >> yes. but you have two things at play here quickly. number one, the other parties talking with, telling them don't do business with iran in this case they have to see what is their option, iran's economy or

america's economy. it counts a lot. many european countries are going to make that choice. the optics, optics in their own country, america is not doing business with you anymore will affect the private sector. many countries the real economy is the private sector so it would work. but my point, neil, at the end of the day it is really the opposition that should be our partner, the last push against that regime will not be a war, a revolt and opposition inside of iran. neil: thank you very, very much, walid. to update you what the president is doing, explain in more detail. this is sort of the financial backbone most countries have. most countries have a central bank. we have our federal reserve. the swiss has the european bank. they all have that. that is the mechanism we trade funds, ship money out, ship money back in. it is the processing and clearinghouse much like a check

automatically deposited into an account that is the same thing on a bigger global scale. we've all but shut that down. making it very difficult for iran to send out money and get warrants on oil that is ships abroad. that is all done through the central bank. if that is frozen, you can't participate in that, back to the black market or looking alternatives that affect all iranian oil exports. metal and mining industries get their money through the central bank to ship out, and cutting off all means of funding by doing that there are cynics out there that iranians have been finding ways around this for quite some time. if it wasn't donald trump, before him barack obama, before him george bush, that would try to shut down the central bank. this is a controversial move because a lot of countries don't like going that route. it is sort of like the third financial rail, if you touch a country's central bank or intervene to make sure it can't do anything, be careful what you

wish for, other countries will do the same back and forth. it is sort of like the holy grail in the past tried to avoid. not this president, not now. the fallout is muted again on the market, again on oil, all places you would expect to see some ajita build up, a italian expression, it is not happening, not happening. the president is saying he is making progress at least on one other front, that would be china. he has exempted more than 400 chinese products from additional tariffs. they include everything from plastic straws to single cut coffee filters, christmas lights, you name it. we'll be rifling through the items being targeted. it is sort of like an overture to the the chinese, since the chinese responded with exemptions of their own. so the goodwill instilled here. national taxpayers union executive vice president brandon arnold. what do you think of this, the overtures with both china and the united states have made to each other? >> well let's rewind a little

bit. there has been over 16,000 applications from business interests in the united states for exemptions from these chinese tariffs since they went into effect. we're talking about 400, talking about a pretty small number of exemptions were granted. i guess it makes sense given the tariffs disrupted the economy quite a bit but it doesn't really move the ball all that much towards a resolution in this trade war. it is great news if you're a trade lawyer or lobbiest here in washington. i don't think it is great news in terms of advancing the conversation with china towards a meaningful resolution. neil: how does that work, brandon? a lot of businesses say look, mr. president, this is killing us. could you have a carveout, i don't know for plastic straw makers? could have you a carveout for companies that make patio torches and skateboards, a host of other items were miraculously exempted from this, thousands more are not getting it, how is

that weighed, how are those petitions weighed? >> i'm being cynical, it is weighed looking sometime through a political lens. some people look at the process say it is fundamentally broken. really shouldn't have to exist in the first place by and large certainly not the extent we currently individual in place, whether a politically driven process or not. default should not be tariffs. the default should be for our businesses to freely trade across the globe wherever possible. we're in a bad spot. businesses are doing what they can to cope with a difficult situation, trying to navigate the exemption process as best they can. ideally wouldn't spend millions of dollars again of lobbyists here in washington, trade attorneys know this inside and out and trying to curry favor with the administration during the process. we should have a level playing filed. there is lot of space that needs to be covered between where we are now and where we need to be. neil: the president, brandon, saying that the chinese are very close to forking over

$100 billion in tariff dough to us. we know that the chinese don't pay that. we do. american entities do. up to american entities retailers whether they pass it along entirely. the president always argue the chinese offset impact by devaluing their currency, be that as it may, he is boasting about the chinese dealing with this but they're dealing with this a lot better than you would think, aren't they? >> yeah. i think so. the currency devaluation is certainly a big factor here. other things to look at, the fact they reduce the tariffs with other countries. while they increased tariffs threefold on u.s. goods come into china, they have decreased tariffs by about 20% on other countries goods that come into china. that helped them cushion a blow a little bit relocating supply chains, finding alternative products they can get in other countries so they don't necessarily have to buy american products. that really helped their country. that is frankly a model we

should look at we hopefully lock in usmca an a trade deal with japan. we should look to strengthen ties with other international actors and so we have as flee flowing commerce as we can and not look to china. neil: brandon, president was pointing out it would show up in the numbers, fears about tariffs and inflationary is not popping up. he raises a good point, because the federal reserve cut interest rates again, told ostensibly from the federal reserve, told because of the trade situation. made zero fact that the interest rates globally, might try to follow europe or the rest to zero or lower rates, but the tray thing is coming into ceo's and cfos plans, right? they are holding back. they are freezing a lot of their capital spending expansion, a lot of their hiring expansion. that is a legitimate fear, is it

not? >> absolutely. surveys of corporate executives suggest that they are holding back capitol expenditures. that is a huge problem. capital expenditures is what drives long term, medium term job growth. that is a big deal. what buoyed this economy has been consumer spending. consumer spending is very, very strong. that is a great thing. how long it will be strong? we don't know. as tariffs shift towards consumer facing products that could weaken the consumer sector. that could have a big hit on the economy at large. neil: brandon, i always learn a lot. brandon arnold, national taxpayers union executive vice president. on the left side of the screen we're waiting for the president of the united states and the prime minister of australia scott morrison. the prime minister and his wife will be feated at a white house state dinner. this is only second one. the last one was emmanuel macron for france. this will be the second of an australian prime minister.

last time we saw one was 13 years ago when president bush hosted john howard, prime minister of australia. these are rare events. you get a lot of attention who is on the menu, who is invited. a lot of fish involved here. that's fine. fish is like the new chicken. i don't know. we'll get detailed menu, invite list. everyone says this person went. this person went. ahead of that we have the president still touting a strong economy. so why the response we got from jerome powell? we've got citi personal wealth management sean snyder with us. sean, it sort of defies logic in a way that given the strength of the economy, you wouldn't need to cut rates. now the federal reserve chairman indicated because of the uncertainty of the trade situation that is why he did what he did. i'm wondering what you make of that? >> you know, i think, when you hear larry kudlow this morning talk about positives of the

economy, i think he is right. i also think when you hear james bullard, the st. louis fed president talking about how he would cut 50 basis points he is worried about manufacturing being in recession he is also right. i think we're in the situation where manufacturing is seemingly in recession. that is about 11% of the u.s. economy. but the services sector, which is 70% of the u.s. economy is not in recession. so you can look at it through two different lenses. i think it makes some sense to cut rates just based on the idea that weakness in the manufacturing sector could potentially move into the services sector. we're not really seeing it noticeably right now. but that doesn't mean it couldn't happen. if you look at past recessions, if you look at ism manufacturing index which is what james bullard is referring to, when you go below a mark of 50 you're in contraction. above 50 you're in expansion. right now it is at 49.1. neil: he said it is a recession. >> slightly. neil: he opted against this for

that reason. two others who dissented did so because they didn't think we needed the estimate -- stimulus. including boston fed president rosengren who argued we're doing just fine. i wonder if that might temper a little bit what the federal reserve wants to do going forward. the next move is to cut rates, might have more nos. i wonder where you see this going? >> right now the market is pricing in a 75% chance we get one more rate cut by december. neil: not in six weeks? >> by december. that is under 60% by the next meeting. neil: that consensus changed a little bit. so i'm wondering whether, this insurance stabs whether you want to call them on the part of the fed to deal with this tray thing is eventually going to be enough, and whether the markets

will be disappointed that come by december we don't get an additional cut, whether they will then start getting antsy? >> i think what is happening some of the dissent, some divided members what we're seeing is some of them are saying we want to see more visible signs that the recovery is in danger before making a decision to cut further. i think that is what is happening. they want to see further data, more data, to see it starting to seep into the services sector i think they would act again. i think they're comfortable where they're at. chair powell did a good job resetting market expectations. i don't think they want to be beholden of the market, where they are after resetting. neil: always amazed by markets that held up through this. we do have our days that are whipsawed by promising news on trade that sends stocks up. disappointing comment or you know, a tweet from the president, you know, that sends

stocks down but all in all, within a stone's throw are records across the board. >> right. neil: what is the market you think telling us? >> i think it is telling you that we already have 12 formal rounds between the u.s. and china. this would be the 13th. so in some sense you're getting a little bit acutus come to -- a customed to this. we're not quite as volatility around the chinese headlines. tariffs ratchet up again we would see the market sell-off. we're coming to the realization we've been dealing with this since 2017. that is when we first started the negotiations. it will take a while. you look at u.s. economic data it has been better recently. looks like u.s.-china trade tensions eased of for the time act. i think the market is holding up well. i think it will advance a little more by the end of the year. neil: sean, i get the idea, i could be very, very wrong, we're setting the stage for a bifurcated deal, a trimmed down deal, maybe markets won't accept

that, maybe they won't. if i suspect they could be, telegraphing signs are like, exemptions both countries offering on other goods we're targeting by the big tariffs. that could set the stage for agreeing on low-hanging fruit, the type of stuff that might address our concerns about the chinese not buying enough stuff from us. the chinese concerns about our going full throttle into intellectual property stuff right away, when in fact we might push that off. that might be what we're looking at here? >> i think that's true. i mean, whether an interim deal is good for the u.s., bad for the u.s., i guess that is not a question. neil: if it is an interim deal, my point was, would that be greeted by disappointment? would the market be happy they got a deal? >> i think market would welcome it. neil: okay. >> the sense we're getting easier monetary policy and see trade tensions kind of fade away, even if it's not a great

deal, the market hopes economic growth will stablize, we can move on from here. neil: we'll watch very closely. thank you very much. we are following markets. following the east room of the white house here. you might have thought given the fact that the president of the united states and australian prime minister answer questions mostly the president answer reporters questions a little while ago, in the oval office that was it. we are seeing people assemble, get in place here. so maybe we'll stick with this a little bit, guys if we can. i want to update you. this is on a day the state dinner that the president is planning for scott morrison and his wife general any. these are rare events for the president. only second since he has been president. this shows a close relationship between the two leaders. probably the best relationship the president has. the one with benjamin netanyahu compromised a little bit by an election still too close to call. the israeli prime minister might not survive.

key cabinet officials are in place including steve mnuchin who was talking a little while ago about sanctions put in place, particularly on the central bank of iran, that are sweeping indeed unprecedented. the closest we came to action like that under the administration of jimmy carter when all financial ties to iran were broken after ayatollah khamenei sanctioned the capture of those u.s. hostages a crisis that dragged on better than a year. that was then. this is an entirely different environment right now. the iranians are promising a response. they call additional actions on part of the president and further sanctions economic warfare. they have not indicated how they're going to respond but the administration has made it clear if they stop terrorizing people, doing all that stuff, all those could potentially go away. melania trump coming in as well as first lady of australia.

very, very soon the president will be dealing with, how this trade has expanded, how the australians have picked up military purchases themselves. now the president of the united states and prime minister of australia, scott morrison. mr. morrison was not expected to see his party put back in power. the day of the election he was down by eight point. his party was down, liberal party in australia. that is just the opposite. president is --. >> the prime minister of australia. [applause] >> thank you very much, please. we had a spectacular morning and it is an honor being with the prime minister and

mrs. morrison, thank you very much australia is a fantastic country and a brilliant ally. we just spent a lot of time together with our representatives and they get along very well and we're doing a lot of deals and we talked military, we talked trade, we talked about everything you can talk about. we came to the same conclusion i think in every case but i just want to say it's an honor having both of you here, thank you very much. you have a truly great country. i think we have had a better relationship than we have right now and tonight we'll have something very special in the rose guarden. based on all of that money we spend on all of that weather predicting equipment, they're saying no chance of rain. we'll see if that is right. if it is we'll run back into this room. we'll have a fantastic evening. first lady, thank you very much. you worked very hard on this. so it is not going to rain. it will be a beautiful evening.

and great job. really great job, honey. thank you, please. [applause] >> thank you, mr. president and mrs. trump. we thank you also very much for the incredibly warm and generous welcome that general -- jenny and i had and our delegation here in washington the great home of the american presidency and indeed your home. one of the things the president and i share in common is a passion for jobs and the job performance here in the united states, the jobs being created in australia, the jobs that change people's lives, when they get a job they have choices, australia, the united states are creating jobs. where we look to the future where the jobs come from, we want those people to have those economic opportunities. i commend the president on the great work he has done creating jobs here in the united states. we're doing the same thing in australia. if you want to keep creating

jobs this partnership is a big part of that. we're pleased to come together here. we share objectives in so many areas. we share common values. we share beliefs. we shared a wonderful century together. now we'll have another great century together. thank you, mr. president, thank you for the opportunity for the discussion we had today. we are very much looking forward to the state dinner this evening and mrs. trump, you're doing something special there tonight. we don't know first ever, as president said, perhaps the first-ever, another great innovation which is part of this wonderful visit. thank you very much. >> thank you very much, scott. great honor. go ahead, please. reporter: mr. president, you've been negotiating with the chinese and there seems to be a possibility in terms of a china trade deal they might actually offer some agricultural purchases. is that going to be enough for you, sir in order to get a deal done? >> no. reporter: what you do you need to see that deal get past the finish line. >> we're looking for a complete

deal. i'm not looking for a partial deal. china has been starting buying our agricultural product over the last week, actually some very big purchases. that is not what i'm looking for. we're looking for the big deal. we're taking billions and billions of dollars in tariffs. china is devaluing their currency and putting a lot of money into their economy and they have a very bad economy right now. i don't want them to have a bad economy but the worst they say in 57 years. two weeks ago it was the worst in 22 years. now it is 57 years. it will only get worse. their supply chain is being broken up very badly. companies are leaving because they can't pay 25, soon to go to 30% tariff. and we have 30% very shortly on 250 billion. we have another tariff at slightly smaller number as you know on other, on about $300 billion worth of goods and products. so, they would like to do something. as you know we're talking a

little bit this week, talking a lot next week. and then, top people will be speaking the week following. but i'm not looking for a partial deal. i'm looking for a complete deal. >> do you feel you need that deal before the election, sir? >> i don't feel i need it before the election. people know we're doing a great job. i've rebuilt the military. we, scott and i were talking about that. we spent one 1/2 trillion dollars. when i came in our military was depleted. frayingly we didn't have ammunition, okay? but our military was in very bad shape. we have one of the strongest economies. mike pence actually got some, it is right here, our great vice president, he was talking yesterday. he called me, boy these numbers, these consumer numbers are incredible. retail numbers came out two days ago that weren't really reported, really just incredible numbers. you know that very well. that is your world. some other numbers. we're doing very well. our economy is very strong.

china is being affected very badly. we're not being affected. in fact we're taking in many billions of dollars. china is eating that. china is eating tariffs because of the devaluation. that doesn't happen with all country. china is china. and, they know what they're doing as well as anybody. my relationship with president xi is a very amazing one, very good one but we have right now a little spat. i think we're doing very well. our country is doing very well. you look at some different things. look at all of the regulation cutting that allows us to do what we did. look what happens three days ago where you have an attack like that, takes a out a big chunk of oil and price goes up $4, $5, now it is heading down rapidly. that tells you -- years ago it would have gone up $50. it would have doubled. this was a blip. so it has been really amazing what we've been able to do. i think voters understand that i don't think it has any impact on

election. if something happened i think that would be positive for the election but that's okay. i do think signing usmca on a bipartisan basis with nancy pelosi and chuck schumer everybody else very bipartisan i think that is very important for our country. i would be certainly be willing to say that is a bipartisan deal but i think that is very important for our manufacturers, for our farmers. even for unions they want that deal done. hopefully that will be put up to a vote very soon. there will be very little cajoling of the democrats because most democrat want it too but the usmca is ready to be voted on. it is finished. mexico taken the final votes. canada is willing to do that anytime we want them to. they're all set to go. we need that for all of the, we need that for our country. it's a great deal. great deal. thank you. reporter: for the prime minister, sir, your economy to some degree caught in the crosscurrents between the united states and china. what did you say to the president what your ideal out

come of an agreement between the united states and china? >> thank you. obviously we're going to see the united states and china be able to come to an agreement. what is always necessary is deals have to be fair, deals have to be good deals. deals have to be sustainable deals. i think one of the things we've seen australia benefited greatly from the economic growth of china. we have comprehensive strategic partnership with china, a free-trade agreement with china. they have grown and become substantive economy in the world. once you sort of get into that level, then you need to be able to play under the same rules as those other developed nations. and i think this is, the new, new generation of deals i think we'll see china do which the president has been working on, he has been working on it for some time. we wish him well in the process. there are real serious issues that have to be addressed in that deal. things like intellectual property. that is a big issue. it needs to be addressed. we look forward to them

achieving it. providing i think broader stability to the global economy which all nations will benefit from. >> we could do, scott, a very big deal with china. it could go very quickly as you know, but it wouldn't be the appropriate deal. we have to do it right. that is a very complicated deal with intellectual property protection and other things. i could leave lots out and have a deal quickly. we want to do it right. please, sure. i assume andrew is a nice person? [laughter]. that is why you chose him. reporter: thank you very much for hosting us. also on china and tariffs. what do you say to australian businesses and australian people who say your trade war with president xi threatens their prosperity and to the prime

minister, a linked question. do you think that australians are going to be collateral damage in president trump's tariff war with china? >> well, first of all, i look at numbers. i love numbers and the numbers of australia are incredibly well, you're doing unbelievably well. when we have a deal with china or not but when we have a deal with china, because they want to make it perhaps more than i want to make it. i i love all billionsdove lars pouring into our treasury. billions and billions of dollars. we've never seen that from china. it has always been the other way. i'm taking care of our farmers out of that. i'm helping the farmers. they were targeted for $16 billion. i made that up to them. we paid $16 billion of and had tens of billions of dollars left over. i will say australia is doing very well. if we end up doing a deal

australia will do even better and we were discussing that but australia will be one of the big beneficiaries of a deal. in the meantime i did tariff relief with respect to a certain product in particular coming out of australia. that is something we wouldn't do for anybody else. this has been a truly great ally. we work very well together. but your name members are absolutely fantastic. your economy is strong like ours and i think we're two real examples of two countries doing extremely well. some countries are not doing well. europe is not doing well. large parts of asia are not doing well. china is not doing well. please. >> thanks. mr. president, australia is in 29th year of consecutive economic growth which is extraordinary national achievement and we will continue to grow as our most recent, our most recent national accounts demonstrated. australia is very used to deal

with a complex and changing world and that is why we have diversified our trade base. we have been doing that many years. six years ago when our government came to office, 27% of our trade was covered by agreements around the world. that figure is now 70%. we'll take that to 90%. that is important and that is opening up opportunity. so there are ebbs and flows that go in the global economy. australia has built up resistance through the broad-based nature we're talking our economy to the world. australia has never got rich selling things to itself. we always had outward looking perspective engaging our economic opportunity. a big part of what we're discussing here is new opportunity, whether in minerals, critical minerals, frontier technologies, space. this is where jobs are going to be in the future as well. so we will deal with those ebbs and flows as they come but the

president's right, the arrangement they will come to, i'm confident they will, with china will be one that will set a new bar in terms of how china's economy deals with a lot of these complicated issues in the future with developed economies like australia. so we look on with interest and i think ultimately when we arrive at that point it is going to put global trade on a stronger footing. >> and australia is so focused on the economy. they do incredible wealth in minerals. coal, other things. they're at leading edge of coal technology. it is clean coal we call it. clean coal. but it is great for workers and things that would happen too, because it was very dangerous years ago and very bad for a lot of people and, you've rectified that 100%. it is incredible. i looked at your statistics the

other day. coal miners are very, very safe in australia. we're looking what you have done. >> we can do a deal on that. >> yeah, we'll make a deal. go ahead, please. reporter: thank you. in the midst of these escalating tensions with iran you now named a new national security advisor robert o'brien. >> yes. reporter: what is he recommending with you dealing with the latest strike on saudi arabia and the response? secondly you announced new sanctions on iran? secretary mnuchin said this is last available funds for that regime. have we now exhausted sanctions with regards to iran? >> these are the strongest sanctions ever put on a country. we're at a level of sanction far greater than ever before with respect to iran. we today did central bank as you know. we'll see. we'll see. they're having a lot of problems with us not only with us but in their own country.

they have a lot of self-made problems. we are by far the strongest military in the world. going into iran would be a very easy decision. as i said before, it would be very easy, easiest thing. most people thought i would go in, within two seconds but plenty of time. plenty of time. in the meantime they have a lot of problems within iran. iran could be a great country. it could be a rich country but they are choosing to go a different way. there will be a point they will be very sorry for that choice but i think i'm showing great restraint. a rot of people respect it. some people don't. some people say you should go in immediately. other people are so thrilled what i'm doing. i don't do it for everybody. i do it for what is good for the united states, what's good for our allies and it is working out really very well. as far as robert is concerned, robert, maybe you could stand up. robert o'brien has done a fantastic job for us with

hostage negotiations. i think we can say there has never been anybody that has done you and eye i as a combination. we brought many people home. that is something. i had dinner the other night with the warmbier family. the whole family and some of otto's friends in addition to the family. we had 25 people over on saturday night. we did that dinner and really in otto's honor and it was a beautiful thing, it was a beautiful thing. the first lady and i, it was very, it was very touching and really very beautiful. we talked about otto. i will tell you that people should have moved faster. robert and i were talking about. should have moved faster. he was there for a long time.

he had to move fast, with hostages you have to move fast. all of sudden it gets very hard for the other side to do anything. sometimes it is just too late. in the case of at otto it was very late. we got him home but he was in horrible condition what happened to him. it was actually incredible, just horrible but you have to move fast. robert and i have been really suckful. the reason i know him, i work hard on hostages. most presidents would not do that but i do. in almost all cases american lives. with he help other people also. we also helped other countries with their hostage situation that we have some strength that they don't. but these are great people. we get them home. we got them home from north korea as you know. and we got them home from a lot of different locations. egypt, we got them home. we get them home from many different locations, turkey. president erdogan was very good

and we got a hostage home. our gray -- great pastor who everyone in this room knows and loves. we had tremendous success. what surprised me, i don't know if too many people knew, robert, came time to pick somebody from the position, very critical time. i had some people, i shouldn't say this in front of robert, he will be embarrassed. i had so many people called me and they recommended robert o'brien. so i think he will do a great job and he was here. i can tell you this, he started about 12 minutes after he was chosen. he sat in with us. he is very much involved now in what we're doing. reporter: one quick follow up on that with regards to iran. if sanctions don't work and they continue their maligned activity are there any other measures outside after military option that can be taken? >> i don't want to talk about but i say the sanctions work,

military would work but that is a very severe form of winning. but we win. nobody can beat us militarily. nobody can even come close. what we've done for our military in the last three years incredible. all made in the usa by the way. it is really incredible. our nuclear was getting very tired. they hadn't spent money on it. now we have it in as we would say tippy-top shape, tippy-top. we have new, we have renovated. it is incredible, we all should pray we never have to use it, we should never have to use it. our military itself is in phenomenal shape. and we have a great gentleman as you know, going to be taking over joint chief of staff joe dunford has been fantastic. he is a great man and a friend of mine. but general milley will be taking over and it is going to

be, we'll have a little bit of a celebration. both for joe and for, for everybody. as you know our secretary of defense has just come in, mark esper, and he has been here for a short period of time. but he has got tremendous energy. he has got it. he knows, that is what he has been doing from a long period of time, from the day he graduated or maybe from the day he started at west point where he was a top, top scholar, et cetera. so we have an incredible people. steve mnuchin is here. we did the sanctions today and i think they're, probably, steve the strongest that ever opinion put on their country. we'll certainly never do that to australia, i promise to you. reporter: one for the prime minister, if i may. mr. prime minister you've been tough on huawei even under pressure. you've been consistent with the ban even though you have a good working relationship with china and they're important for your

economy. do you plan to continue to support the united states and tough stance on china? can you give anymore specifics what you told the president you would do to help measures for a free trade deal? >> we have the most perfect of relationships with the united states, and it goes back a century and more as the president was reminding us on the lawn this morning. we have a comprehensive strategic partnership with china. this is the part of the world which we live. managing that relationship is important. one thing i can tell you, the president stays the same. we will always act in national interests of our countries. we will always put our country's interests first. that means engaging countries in the own region not economically but a different level as well. we have a lot of operations we do together right across the world militarily. we'll continue to do those but the focus i think at the end of the day has to be what is best

for our people. that means a stable, secure region. the president of the united states in the indough pacific where they have -- indo-pacific where they have been a long time. that is stablizing force for the region. what does that mean? people can trade with each other. economies can develop. people come out of poverty. the united states has had a positive presence in our region. that is why we work together, we share objectives. it isn't a matter of the united states saying we need you to do this, or australia saying to the united states, we need you to do this. it is about us having shared objectives and looking at the world through a similar lens. that naturally brings us together to focus on things that promote prosperity. i started out in my remarks today we love jobs, president and i, we love jobs. we like jobs here and jobs everywhere. when people have jobs they tend to focus a bit more things going on in their lives every day, making sure they can live

peacefully with each other. >> one other thing that is important i think during our meeting we discussed, what percentage of your military do you buy from us? the answer is we work it together or 100%, as close to 100%. we make the best equipment, he understands that. it's a real relationship. they buy 100% of their military. it is a massive purchase. the biggest purchase since world war ii. >> there will be 2% of gdp next year. that comes up from what was the lowest level of defense spending share of economy since prior to the second world war. it's a 200 billion-dollar investment. a lot of that is being built in australia and being built in partnership with the united states. and other allies. so it is an important part of what we're doing. i think david crow from australia was next. reporter: thank you very much,

david crow from the "sydney morning herald." questions on iran. mr. president, you praised iranian commitment today to deal with iran in the persian gulf. in talks today with mr. morrison did you discuss further military action in order to keep pressure on iran? what might those military actions could be? what could australia contribute to that. mr. morrison -- >> hold on one second. you will get a, you get a shot at your prime minister. [laughter]. i'm sure you're looking forward to it. we didn't discuss too much iran. we discussed more trade, more china. we discussed afghanistan where australia is helping us. we're slowly reducing in afghanistan as people know. we've been very effective in afghanistan. if we wanted to do a certain method of war, we would win that very quickly. but many, many really tens of

millions of people would be killed. we think it is unnecessary. australia has been a great help to us in afghanistan. but we're reducing in afghanistan. we're reducing in syria where we had, you know, we've taken over 100% of the caliphate. we have 100%. when i came in it was smaller but it was a mess. it was all over. now it is, it is in a position. i won't repeat what i said before with the prisoners, but we have thousands of isis fighters from our work in capturing 100% of the caliphate and we're asking the countries from where they came, whether it is germany or france or other countries to take those people back, put them on trial, do what they have to do with them but the united states will not keep thousands and thousands of people for the next possibly 50 years or whatever it may be. it is going to be up to those countries. we did them a big favor.

we went in. we took them down. the isis fighters in the end weren't very good fighters against the united states but we have thousands of them and we want them to be taken over by germany, france, all of those countries from where they came. okay? reporter: thank you. mr. morrison on the same issue of iran, are you open to further military action against iran. or is the australian commitment is to freedom of navigation and patrol? >> as the president said there are no further actives planned or requested for assistance from australia. so the question to that extent is moot. i want to commend the president demonstrating as he said in the earlier press conference in the oval office restraint. there are other measures that he and the secretary have announced today and they are pursuing those channels.

socally greated measuredded response the united states is taking is measured for them. so anytime issues are raised with us as an ally we consider them on the merits at the time in australia's national interest so i think that is where that is hit. >> thank you very much. jennifer, thank you very much. first lady. i hope you will see with the media, really will be a beautiful evening in honor australia and morris sons. thank you very much. [applause] neil: if you were expecting the president to make a little news after he spent 45 minutes in the oval office with the prime minister and parrying questions, you're right he did. he added a couple new details

how china talks would go, what he expects with them. the expectation he would settle for a partial deal, he put the kibosh on this, want to do it the right way, we want to do the right deal. therethere will be no partial d. we are looking for a complete deal which presumably would mean something that would extend to intellectual property and chinese in charge over many, many years. this bedeviled many u.s. presidents, steal our stuff. steal our corporations and technology and this will be part of the agreement or we don't have an agreement. the thought he would settle for a partial deal, cobble together something on low-hanging fruit on issues buying more stuff from each other, at that would have satisfied, probably the markets but want this one way or the other. he is not going to do that. the president already indicated he made overtures to the chinese by exempting some areas that were targeted for tariffs. we heard about the coffee filter

thing, plastic straws, christmas lights, he didn't detail that here. that is something he wanted to do as sort of an opening gesture. the chinese have done similar things as well. talks that the australian prime minister and he share a love of jobs. the australian economy is certainly one of the world's strongest over the years. it is 28 years, entering the 29th without a recession. things are slowing down, clip niece back and forth. china does a lot of business with australia and australia with china. a lot of headwinds. they're growing barely at 1.4% rate. you need two quarters in a row of negative growth or contracting growth to get a recession. we're not there yet for australia, but the lowest growth they experienced. interest rates are very low, half what they are in this country. rates there the equivalent about 1% or so. they have a whole different

system than we do. but they're not exactly firing on all cylinders. 29 years almost without a recession, that is the world's envy right now. but he supports what the president is doing to settle this once and for all with the chinese and indicating that he has the australians full support on this. he also touched on the idea that there will be a lot more cooperation with the australians, certainly beefing up their defenses as indicated with conservative government running australia right now. they committed better than 200 billion, 200 billion of australian dollars worth of added defense spending there. great cooperation between the two. the two are personally very, very close to one another. there will be a state dinner. that will feature the australian prime minister scott morrison and his wife jenne. this is the second for australia. the last time george bush feated

john howard and his wife in 2006. washington examiner kelly jane torrence on all the developments. kelly jane, it is official now, we either get a full deal or we don't have any deal with china, what did you make of that? >> i'm very happy to hear that, neil. i hope the president sticks to it. we know he changes his mind often. you know i'm not a big fan of tariffs that they hurt the consumer more than anything else but the big problem with china is the intellectual property theft and a lot of other issues that the communist regime does. they steal technology from american companies. they tell american companies they have to give them intellectual property if they want to do business in china. and that is just simply unacceptable. especially given the worries that china is also trying to develop, steal american technology from military purposes. this is something that, it is huge. this is very important.

i think any deal would you it is not really a great deal as president trump might say, because it doesn't get to the root of the problem. that is the theft. neil: what is interesting about it too, to your point, this is the first time he was so unequivocal about it. he had been dodging and weaving this issue what he could settle for. i know a lot of people around him said we could get a commitment on the part of the chinese to address these thornier issues. that they will. it can come with initial deal. so why don't we commit to doing 90% of the problem that is the trade gap between our two countries, to satisfy those who say the chinese are not doing enough on that front? then address thorny issues? if the markets were disappointed by that, they have a funny way showing it. they were where they were before the press conference. the markets seem fine with that what do you make of that? >> that is interesting, neil. i think there is difference of

opinion within the administration. i think some people -- neil: big time. >> some pushing for a partial deal, some not. i remember very early in public, a few officials we'll have a deal with the chinese. you know, it is imminent, this is imminent. back in march. i had a source in the white house, very good source, very close in the white house he said we'll not get a deal on first half of this year, point-blank. neil: it was interesting. obviously staked his ground here. markets volatile though they are, tough measure, it ising interesting about the tightrope the australian minister had to walk. australia is rich in commodities, all other things china desperately wants. that is the big reason why australia over the last decade been through the boom. things slowed down because of its trade and booming trade and china.

he supports the president, prime minister of ace trail yaw -- australia, knowing what he is doing full well and hitting those numbers t continues to expand though not nearly the rate it was. he would be personally happy if the president had interim deal or tentative deal or partial deal but he supports him fully on that. what did you make of that? >> it's a very complicated relationship as you're alluding to, neil, australians and chinese. there is one thing that the australians are winning out of this. china is threatening to shut off the u.s. from the rare earths markets. neil: right. >> these are used in technology. they're used in military, very important. australia has been producing them. we'll look to them rather than china. that is only thing he is winning on. it's a complicated relationship. australia has a ton of trade, even domestically they had issues lately. for example, some chinese diplomats at the embassy in australia were actually

complaining, telling australians they shouldn't be allowing people to protest about hong kong. they actually had some people beating up people at australian university for protesting. australia sent them a strongly-worded note with that they are walking a tightrope. there is a lot of trade between the two. they know first-hand china's heavy hand. they would like to see same things america would like to see on intellectual property and other things. so, yeah, scott morrison thought i did a very good job answering questions. really walking that tightrope. neil: walking that tightrope very, very well. kelly jane, always fun. thank you very much. kelly jane torrence of the washington examiner. >> thanks, neil. neil: president likes to say, reinforces the notion that economy doing well. a good indicator is that consumer. what a lot of folks are scooping up new apple iphones, all the

rest. some getting in long lines to do so. if you are really hurting you won't fork over 1000 bucks for a phone, right? i think. ♪ when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today.

and this was a blip, so it's been really amazing what we've been able to do. i think the voters understand that. i don't think it has any impact on the election. now, if something happened, i think that would probably be positive for the election, but that's -- neil: all right. the president talking just a few minutes ago about the impact that china trade war is having on america, he says minimal thus far because china devalue their currency. i know you know the drill. the impact on higher price for americans has really not materialized. we should stress here that you do pay those higher tariffs, not the chinese. he is arguing the point that, you know, the chinese because they devalue their currency, they suck a lot of that up, but american entities, companies, retailers, that sort of thing, middlemen, buyers, who go out to

china, get this stuff, they have a choice either, you know, suck up some of that themselves, try not to pass along to u.s. consumers, but again, china isn't paying it. they are, american entities are. the impact on you has been minimal. we shall see about that. the president talking about the fact it could become a big issue in the 2020 election. he does not seem to think it will now. he did seem to posit if you are looking for a partial deal, stop looking because he wants a thorough deal that includes not only the chinese buying more goods from us, but committing to no longer stealing our stuff and being the disingenuous lying thieves they've been. that's kind of his view. they have been disingenuous lying thieves. but again, it's always in how this sorts out. there are many people around the president who have been saying 90% of our problems could be solved lickety-split if the

chinese would agree to buy more agricultural products from us, open up the markets for autos and the intellectual property stuff, we could get a commitment on the chinese part to hammer something together and we will all be better off. the president making it clear in the most, you know, black-and-white terms, no, no, no, it's everything or it is nothing. let's bring in our panel. edward lawrence, michelle mckinnon and dave nagy. edward, your thoughts on no middle ground the president is laying out here. that tape is going to be there. we are going to keep going back to that because it's the strongest he's ever been on this issue. it's all or nothing. >> and consistent with the administration, u.s. trade representative robert lighthizer says he does not want a partial deal, he's working towards a full deal on this. they would like to see everything included in this. it's interesting, you say american companies are paying these tariffs. 437 of those companies now don't

have to pay as many, that's the new items that have been excluded from this list. it's a large amount of items -- neil: christmas lights are now saved, patio torches are saved, skateboards. i know you're big into that. >> back in my younger days. electric trucks that are self-propelled electric trucks which is something amazon said they will go towards. that's also exempted now. some big items, it basically guts a lot of the tariffs that are in place. this is the concessions that the chinese were looking for. our chinese sources were saying that going into this week they were looking for discussions on rolling back some of the tariffs and this could be seen as rolling back some of the tariffs. now our chinese sources are saying that possibly we could now see another announcement of a large agriculture buy either later on today when the statement comes out related to how these talks went, or next week when the smaller part of that group that's here in washington, d.c. or that is in

washington, d.c. goes to the farm countries and visits farms. neil: you know, it's one thing for the chinese to say they will buy more agricultural goods. they don't. isn't that the thing that made the last deal fall apart, because they say they are going to do something but they don't? >> here's the thing, kind of to your point of the all or the nothing. the way i'm looking at it as yes, obviously the u.s. economy is much stronger than china at the moment but i think both parties are now looking well, hold on a minute, we have a lot to lose and i think you won't necessarily get a trade deal but i wouldn't be surprised if we get some type of cease-fire shortly. neil: i wonder if these overtures are a step in that direction. the chinese already indicated last week some items we were targeting were exempt. i don't understand what a lot of them were, processing oils for fuel widgets or something like that, whatever, but they did that, we do this, in other words, good faith gestures and that is a little different than prior talks, to edward' point,

that might be setting up something. what do you think? >> i think so. keep in mind, you said it's black and white, what he said. what he said is very black and white except when he says all or nothing, it's kind of like what's the definition of all, right, because trade negotiations are shockingly complex. edward can tick off three or four things, this kind of means all, but then you go kind of, you know, this is the kind of the cloud that has no real border of exactly what's included in those elements. neil: you don't deal with intellectual property, though, the stealing part. >> i agree with that. neil: if that's not included, there will be enterprising and obnoxious journalists like edward who will be sticklers for detail and say wait a minute, you didn't do that, right? >> there are, but what will it mean? i don't think any of us could sit on this panel and say this is what dealing with intellectual property theft will mean. right? it becomes very easy for both sides in this to ultimately proclaim victory, when they decide they kind of want to play nice, need to play nice, it's

not hard and edward can pick it apart. i'm not sure that that 300 some odd million americans will sit there and say i really understand that that's not really a victory. neil: i know a lot of viewers who don't put a final stamp on something until they hear it from someone. so if we are not quite dotting the is, crossing the ts on the chinese trying to play fast and loose with our companies that do business over there, how will that be treated? >> i don't think that's going to happen. i really don't. i think that robert lighthizer, the entire administration has been very clear in one voice that they are going to protect intellectual property. they are going to make sure there is some enforcement in an agreement. neil: there will be no deal unless they get that? >> that's what the president said, yeah, no deal unless they can enforce that -- neil: there's no wiggle room, in your mind? >> in my mind, from who i talked to, all the folks in d.c., there's no wiggle room on intellectual property. there's also, we are hearing discussions this week about possibly laying out a plan for the chinese to stop or reduce

the number of forced joint ventures. that's where some of that intellectual property happens, is if a chinese company owns 51% of your company, you have to give up your technology or how you make stuff. >> you think there's a list of 100 things they say if i don't get all hundred of these, is it that definitive? because if it is, i'm just saying -- >> i don't think it's 100 but i think you will have to see some enforcement from the administration, some enforcement in the deal saying that if you break intellectual property, they already have the mechanism. the mechanism is there. they are going to have meetings at the local level, monthly meetings with the staff and quarterly meetings with the deputy level and semi-annual meetings and all tariffs would be on the table at that semi-annual meeting if a dispute over intellectual property is not set. that mechanism was agreed upon and it is there in the deal. they are trying to figure out the language to bind china to that mechanism. neil: i have no idea what you said. but i'm worried already. i know you had an opportunity to talk to the boston fed presid t

president, and he was the one who was among the dissenters arguing in his case, we don't need any stimulus. so he was against the rate cut. how big is this division? >> well, it's very divided fed. in fact, we had three dissensions in the last -- neil: we have goe would have go half a point cut, right? >> that's the point i was getting to. the last time we had a dissension on two different directions like this of three people was in 2014, five years ago. so this is a very divided fed going -- which way they should go in terms of stimulus. rosengren believes if we incentivize people with low interest rates, they will make risky behavior, risky moves. he believes that increases financial risk to the system. that's basically his philosophy on this problem. bullard believes, the st. louis fed president says inflation is basically undershooting. we are looking at deflation possibly in some areas so we

need to use our bullets now -- neil: he was talking about a manufacturing recession. let me ask a little about that. presumably the reason for the quarter point cut, they wave off the notion the rest of the world's going towards zero interest rates, we have to keep up or keep down with that, i guess. but the official headline was we're doing this because of the trade uncertainties. now, obviously the federal reserve is worried enough about that to keep that vigilence on, that if this really begins, they will move again. where does this go? >> not sure. but i think the markets are pricing in an additional cut. certainly the bond market is pricing in an additional cut. neil: what's the latest number? by the end of the year, we will see one more quarter point cut? >> one more quarter point cut. >> i agree. >> here's the thing. i can understand where both parties we just mentioned are coming from. the u.s. has an extremely strong

consumer, there's no need to cut. then when you look around globally, you have negative yielding rates and then that's pushing our long-term bonds down and therefore, you get an inverted yield curve. it's a complicated subject. i think the fed at the end of the day is doing what it thinks is best. i think trade and the uncertainty of trade is absolutely scaring them. neil: i'm wondering how far they can push it, right? if to edward's point there's division for whatever reason, three members dissenting, then i don't know what the next call would have universal support. >> whether it would or not, and frankly, how diluted the weapons have become. you can make an interesting argument that interest rate moves in a world in which we don't have as much company purchase of capital goods, right, there's much more kind of i can buy this off the cloud, i can do just the piece i need, there is that thing that says to me that the old levers don't

work the way they did in a kind of pre-sharing economy sort of thing. so even if there's bullets still in the armory, i'm just not sure they're quite as deadly as they used to be. neil: do you think there is significance to this october 1st 70th anniversary of communist china, that the chinese want this settled by then, the united states is trying to lever that date to get a deal? what do you think? >> settled by then, that's not going to happen. >> highly unlikely. >> but i mean, i think the administration is showing some good faith and the chinese are obviously playing off of that good faith in what their agricultural buys they're doing. they do appreciate the fact that tariffs, the increase in tariffs was delayed for 15 days to october 15th. you know, it's an important date to them. i don't think -- >> my own curiosity is if the geopolitical tension between china and the u.s. is fundamentally useful to the chinese, because if it is, if

it's useful, then my guess is they play with it as long as they want to. if it's not useful, they won't. neil: you buy the notion that china needs it more than we do? they are growing at a 6% clip, three times ours. i know they lie about it. i get that. >> the cash they're infusing, the president talks about job losses. we don't know exactly how many job losses they have, but we counted some 50 companies that are either moved their supply chain or looking at moving their supply chain, 35 chinese companies have notified -- neil: they're worried about that. >> yeah, but wasn't that going to happen regardless because the chinese economy is moving to more of a consumer-based economy? >> could be, except in technology. they're looking to become the manufacturer of all technology. going back to that october 1st date, interesting to see what happens after that date. if the chinese are amenable after that date now that they have gotten through --

neil: we haven't done even a sign of something -- >> leading up to it, it's nice, nice, nice, we need this date because it's our anniversary. afterwards let's see what happens. neil: we will take a quick break. don't forget, edward will have that interview with eric rosengreen at 2:30 p.m. eric was among the three that dissented on this. in his case, he thought we didn't need the stimulus at all and the stimulus is out there. more after this. ♪ limu emu & doug and now for their service to the community, we present limu emu & doug with this key to the city. [ applause ] it's an honor to tell you that liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. and now we need to get back to work. [ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. neil: all right. take a look at the dow. something happened, we are down 107 points here. whether that's in response to the president's very clear view we get a full deal or we don't do any deal, that's probably a leap at this point. we are hearing separately right now that thousands of more workers have been furloughed at

gm as the strike enters a fifth day there. most of these are jobs in canada, 4400 affected and additional 700 that could be affected, that could be playing into this. separately we are hearing that walmart is going to discontinue the sale of e-cigarettes. that would likely not have a big effect on the markets one way or the other. separately, we are told that this planned visit on the part of -- i guess they are vice ministers or something like that, they were going to visit a number of farms including in montana and elsewhere, that visit has been put off or canceled outright. that's not to say there's something sinister here but there has been talk the chinese have made overtures to buy more grain, soybeans, wheat, barley, all of that from the united states. some might read something nefarious into this. i frankly don't know. but if that was canceled suddenly, maybe that perceived commitment on the part of the chinese to buy more farm products from us might not be

materializing. the market suffers, and worries later. meantime, let's get a read on all of this. blake burman is at the white house. blake, the one thing we learned, i want you to address iran, but on china, and this idea that it's everything or nothing. no parts of the deal. the markets at first fine with that. this might not have anything to do with that but the president has left very little wiggle room here. he's just fine with that. what do you think? reporter: there was wiggle room either last week or two weeks ago when this whole possibility and the headlines erupted of a potential interim deal, you remember the headlines were advisers were talking up the possibility of an interim deal, the white house had really been saying behind the scenes here no, that wasn't the case. the president was asked about it eventually, when he got aboard marine one when he was leaving the white house and he said you know, maybe it's possible but sort of didn't make it seem as

if an interim deal was a possibility. today, he was asked point-blank about it. the president sort of shut the door on an interim deal, saying he wants a long-term deal, he wants a bigger deal. edward sort of laid out all of the little pieces that -- or big pieces that would go into it. but yeah, you're right, he very much closed the door on an interim short-term deal and that is everything we have been hearing. remember, i was kind of cautioning you on this possibility of a short-term deal, the president today made it very clear that he wants a big deal, long-term deal, sustainable deal, one that includes real enforceable items that could last not just years but really, into decades as many at this white house have been framing it. neil: let me ask you, this other report we have that a montana farm bureau saying the china delegation canceled a planned farm visit. i don't know, because i know the "financial times" has been reporting that wasn't nailed down so it might have been the

party's off but we really never had a party planned. i know how that goes. but it's read as alarm. should it be? >> so let me just sort of -- let me be up front, i don't really have any personal reporting on the cancellation, the visit, et cetera. let me lay out where everything stands. you obviously have, as anyone at this white house would tell you, the two people who matter most, president trump, president xi. underneath them, it is the -- not the deputy but, you know, the principals, that's the word i'm searching for, mnuchin, lighthizer and liu he. underneath them, folded under that, is larry kudlow, peter navarro, then liu he's associates in china. underneath that are the deputy level. that's where things start to get really technical, really granular, tees up the principals. the fact that something might be canceled at a deputy level in

the conversations that i've had with people about what the deputy level means and what they accomplish, my guidance to you would be i wouldn't read too much into it. they are coming over here from china but not going to go to a farm. neil: i don't want to jump on you there but i do want to get into the iran thing a little later in the broadcast. we are really zeroing in on the iranian central bank. we will get to that. back with edward lawrence, michelle mckinnon. any thoughts? >> on the visit there, i can tell you i know that they were working on -- the chinese did not say yes right away but they wanted to see how -- what the steps would be, where they would go, what they would do. so we understood from sources that they were working out the details of this and then china would decide if they are going to go or not. neil: it wasn't nailed down in the first place? >> no, but you know, there would have been face-to-face with the people we are retaliating against. that might have been an awkward meeting. neil: someone told some guys

this doesn't look good? >> now you are going to go say hello to them. neil: going after them with pitchforks. any read into this? that's how they are being, reuters and the "financial times," some of these others are seizing on this for this sudden reversal. >> i think yes and no. i flat out think the markets already understand these headlines are just headlines. i think -- neil: but think of what you just said. it's uncanny. headlines or bulletins, whether they are backed by fact or that that was still on, to edward's point, they look good for trade, they look good for stocks, they look bad for trade, they look bad for -- it's uncanny. >> think about this, okay. we have, what -- neil: i think it's idiotic. >> think about this if it was 12 months ago and we had that kind of headline. i would say the market would have been down 200 to 300 points. the markets now are looking at this as like it's just a headline, clearly we don't know what's going on and we're not going to overreact.

neil: do they sell first or are they buying first? >> the move is small. >> they are going to talk into early october so the talks are still going on. neil: what do you make of it? >> i just think -- i hear you that like the president, there's going to be a deal, it's going to be a complete deal. i just don't find this president draws really, really bold and well-defined lines in the sand. he has a way of rubbing them out with his foot when he decides that it's expedient for him. so my only caution would be, you know, he said it today, okay, he said it today. it doesn't mean he's going to believe it tomorrow, he's not going to change it tomorrow. i think the prospects of something getting done again, if china decides it's in its interests to get something done, something will get done. i don't believe that either the market or the american public has the attention span or the depth of knowledge that you do to dig into those hundred

points. neil: what does that tell you that you hang your hat, for good or ill, on trade bulletins or flashes, even though the macro picture is pretty solid? >> does it feel good at dinner when your parents are, when you know they're kind of on the same page and nobody's pulling out the steak knives to stab the other one, dinner is a lot more pleasant. neil: yeah. unless you have imaginary friends. all right. let me get one last thing, edward. when you get and hear about, the president has been looking after the farmers, he wants to help them out if they are feeling the effect, he talks about the $16 billion in tariffs -- >> 28 over the past two years. neil: he's taking carry of them. farming is a big part of it even though we talk about the cheating and everything else. whatever final deal we have, do you suspect the farmers will be richly rewarded here? >> richly rewarded, that again depends on your definition.

you were talking about what is richly rewarded. there will be sustainable sales if we can get to an agreement, plus protections. they want that intellectual protection, too, on how they make their crops. genetic engineering. neil: boy, that's holding. right after this. i'm your cat. ever since you brought me home, that day. i've been plotting to destroy you. sizing you up... calculating your every move. you think this is love? this is a billion years of tiger dna just ready to pounce. and if you have the wrong home insurance coverage, you could be coughing up the cash for this. so get allstate and be better protected from mayhem, like me-ow. imagine a world where nothing gets in the way of doing great work. where an american icon uses the latest hr tools to stay true to the family recipe. where a music studio spends less time on hr and payroll,

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(pilot) we're going to be on the tarmac for another 45 minutes or so. (indistthat was awful.tering) why are you so good at this? had a coach in high school. really helped me up my game. i had a coach. math. ooh.

so, why don't traders have coaches? who says they don't? coach mcadoo! you know, at td ameritrade, we offer free access to coaches and a full education curriculum- just to help you improve your skills. boom! mad skills. education to take your trading to the next level. only with td ameritrade. neil: all right. i don't know whether they call this, you know, face-to-face or face-to-face book but after meeting with the president of the united states, mark zuckerberg continues making nice on capitol hill, meeting up with personal one-on-ones with all the key lawmakers, the same ones who want to go after him, claiming he's gotten too big for his britches. they want to rein him in. hillary vaughn has been following this meet-and-greet. reporter: hey, he had one key meeting this morning with house judiciary committee ranking member doug collins. that's the same committee that is launching this antitrust probe into facebook, the same

committee that has requested e-mails from executives at facebook discussing competition matters. there has been some speculation that facebook might not hand over all the documents that this committee wants. collins got a chance to talk to zuckerberg face-to-face about this very issue. he said he got the indication from zuckerberg that he is open to handing over the information that this committee is requesting. collins telling reporters off-camera this. i think what he gave us today was some honest discussion, especially when it comes to safe harbor privacy and those things i believe they are engaging to find solutions. also later in the day, zuckerberg met with house intel committee chairman adam schiff, who really had one major topic he wanted to talk about, how to prevent what happened on facebook in 2016 from happening in 2020 with this election. democrats have continued to hammer facebook over their role in russian meddling in 2016 so he talked a lot about how to prevent that from happening in the future. this is the third day that

zuckerberg has been meeting with law makers, wining and dining them, meeting them behind closed doors, getting some facetime. not all of it has been positive. these law makers have not been wooed by zuckerberg. they are still holding their ground. they have their concerns, they have aired their grievances to his face, and zuckerberg had some answers but then left some questions or left some law makers feeling that his answers were a little bit lacking. neil? neil: where is this all going? reporter: i think from facebook's perspective, i think this is a different posture for them. zuckerberg has not been on the hill for a year. now he's taking a forward-leaning posture, thinking that showing he's available and open might help calm down some of the heat they have received from various committees and probes on the hill and off the hill. he met with the president yesterday as well, who has been an open critic against facebook and some of the conservative

bias that's been on that platform. so maybe this is a new strategy, holding back, not cooperating, not communicating has not necessarily worked for the company, so perhaps some facetime behind closed doors is the trick. neil: we shall see. more after this. at fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. that's why your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. of the value you'll find at fidelity. why accept it frompt an incompyour allergy pills?e else. flonase sensimist. nothing stronger. nothing gentler. nothing lasts longer. flonase sensimist. 24 hour non-drowsy allergy relief

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shipsticks.com saves you time and money. it also has the highest growth in manufacturing jobs in the us. it's a competition for the talent. employees need more than just a paycheck. you definitely want to take advantage of all the benefits you can get. 2/3 of employees said that the workplace is an important source for personal savings and protection solutions. the workplace should be a source of financial security. keeping your people happy is what keeps your people. that's financial wellness. put your employees on a path to financial wellness with prudential. neil: all right. you don't see ceos normally getting feted as heroes but tim cook heading up apple, was

greeted just that way outside new york's flagship store, as the new iphone was released. i think this is now the world's biggest apple store. kristina partsinevelos in the middle of it all. it's on fifth avenue there, right? reporter: yeah, definitely in the middle. there was a little bit of celebration with investors when the company hit the $1 trillion market cap, flirted with it, i should say, it hit $221.28, it's a little lower now. the people behind me, some have been lining up since the wee hours of the morning. the doors opened at 8:00 a.m. tim cook came, took selfies, shook hands and was on his way out. you have people that have been waiting in line, some very excited. it's nilike a nightclub. people are trying to get through the bouncers so they don't have to wait in line. i spoke to a customer who was extremely happy with his purchase. definitely a major upgrade. listen.

>> everything is in the front n now. [ inaudible ]. reporter: he's justifying the $699 he spent on the iphone 11. here at home, you are wondering what's the difference between the iphone 11 and iphone pro? firstly, with the pro, much more expensive. you have a larger screen, a third lens which is able to zoom. a lot of people have been talking about the lenses on these phones right now. the storage capacity is the same on both, 64 gigabytes. if you happen to drop your phone in the water, the pro is water resistant up to four meters. i want to end on this note for the early adopters. the ios13, the latest operating system, there are already some bugs in it. they are launching a new ios on tuesday, six days in advance from what apple had promised. very unlike them but they have the 13.1 coming out on tuesday.

you may want to wait before you upgrade your operating system. back to you. neil: great job. thank you very, very much. the fact of the matter is these are not cheap devices to get. a lot of people obviously get other stuff to go with the phone depending which model they buy, of course. if you are willing to plunk down close to $1,000, over $1,000 for something and obviously the long lines are indicating a good number of people are, that says something about our economy, right? back with our panel. what do you think, michelle? >> i think it absolutely shows a strong consumer. we talk about how strong the consumer is day after day after day, and absolutely i feel that the consumer will continue to be strong through the holiday season and probably apple will benefit. i think it's all good news. neil: what do you think? >> oh, apple itself, i kind of am sort of a skeptic. i think the fact that there's a big line at the new york flagship store is not to me like oh, isn't this great, i see the stock is down a couple of bucks

today. a company that's scrambling to get into services where the competition is intense and to me, it's -- neil: you sound like a galaxy user. >> i'm not -- i think they have hit that kind of, that technology maturity plateau that hp once hit and microsoft hit and i just don't think -- neil: they've got a lot of technology arrows in their quiver, lot of things they're using. we don't see too many ceos who are treated like rock stars. >> the marketing is genius. they are keeping the momentum going is what they're doing. the market really liked when you talked about the net streaming they are putting out with their shows and the price point on that. this is just keeping that marketing going. it's a marketing machine. neil: does it say something, apple notwithstanding, that people will pay a lot for something if they like it, if they find it intriguing, but you would think with a lot of the bashing, the economy is turning south, you don't do that and the economy turning south.

>> certain things people will spend money on. phones is one of them. neil: meats and cheeses. if apple got into that business, could you imagine? >> people are willing to shell out money. we will take a quick break here. just when you thought that leaders were indestructible and prime minister trudeau was walking to re-election and benjamin netanyahu, nothing to worry about, running for re-election, then along comes some humbling reminders there are no guarantees in life. after this. this is the age of expression. everyone has something to say. but in a world full of talking, shouldn't somebody be listening? so. let's talk. we are edward jones. with one financial advisor per office, we're built for hearing what's important to you.

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neil: all right. you got the canadian prime minister justin trudeau on defense, israel's benjamin netanyahu, close to defeated and boris johnson, well, on borrowed time. to realclear politic associate editor, a.b. stoddard on these developments. it is interesting, i could have gone on with other leaders who are under similar duress right

now, i don't know if i'll say anything profound here but probably stay humble is good advice, because you never know. it can turn south on you quickly. what do you think? >> you're right, because if you look at macron in france, many, many examples, these countries are -- many of these electorates are very very closely divided. it always comes down to a very close vote. and there's a lot of polarization and there's a lot of anxiety because we are going through a lot of change. it's convulsing democracies around the world. if you look at the uk and the u.s. right now, you know, the world looked to these two countries for example as these leaders of free democracies and it's just, change is coming so quickly and people are very disillusioned and disenchanted with their leadership and the trust in government is really low. so incumbents sooner or later,

no matter where they are, will face unrest and people in this country, i have covered so many power shifts in the congress in my career. it's a very volatile electorate. people come in, take power, overdo, get kicked out. the opposite party comes in, they take power, they overreach, they get kicked out. no, nothing is for sure and nothing is for too long. neil: yeah. i was covering steve jobs, giving away my age here, when he was the hero and then when he was kicked out by his own board and came back, so i learned a thing or two, maybe randall stephenson of at & t is experiencing that, they want an alternative to him. the guy has been a rock star for shareholders and big acquisitions and all, i'm getting in the weeds now, but he now is looking at helping to select a successor for the day he has to go and force himself out. i guess i see it all the time in corporate america. i see it all the time in

politics. but here's where i need your input. that is on the joe biden expectation he is the inevitable democratic nominee, and that's just the way it is, and nothing can stop him, polls have proven it, bumpy performances in debates or old man moments and he survives it all so he's the guy, indestructible. what do you think? >> well, he's not indestructible. he's not at all. he's facing a real surge from energized democratic party that is not willing to just take what they need which is a win, because he's not going to definitely beat donald trump but most in the party believe he's in the best position to do so. they want what they want. they are not willing to settle for taking what they need. that's the crux of the fight we see right now between progressives and the moderates. joe biden's coalition is what always won you the nomination. it's non-college whites, moderates, working class democrats who are white and then african-americans, mostly older. they are the most reliable voters. the african-americans who like

elizabeth warren, bernie sanders and don't like joe biden want to vote in this primary. joe biden is not going to be the nominee. so we don't actually know that he's the eventual nominee. i'm surprised at how durable his polling has been and i think that's because his coalition, which like i said in the past has been the winning coalition, is really afraid and really thinking more with their heads than their heart. neil: you think about it, too, michelle, the idea that he manuel macron was a rock star, remember they snickered at trump when he came to visit and all that, and the president with all his difficulties, all the controversy, is polling better than any of them. the election is still a long way off but it's a reminder, don't lock in any -- >> no. certainly the way i look at it, i'm looking in terms of a market perspective and i advise my -- neil: i love that about you. it has nothing to do with what's right or wrong. >> exactly. but normally, back in 2015, whether you thought trump was going to win or you didn't, a lot of people thought he was

going to lose. everyone thought that the markets were going to fall because of that. however, if you were a long-term investor and you kind of decided to ignore the noise, you were rewarded. i think that's a nice reminder particularly going into the 2020 election, if you've got that long-term investor mentality, you might need to turn away from the noise. neil: what do you think? >> what i think is the big underlying thing, how the world has changed is we live in an ankle biter world now. right? so it is much easier with direct access to consumers and being able to wire around a political party as donald trump did to get -- to do things and try them, to throw stuff against the wall and see if it works, and to watch what happens and iterate at very low costs. what happens is it makes it much harder to be an incumbent anything. that's part of the problem apple has, is there's 1,000 guys in a garage in silicon valley throwing stuff at the wall because they can do so with very little resources, to get started.

only one of those, it's like terrorism, only one has to work, but the incumbent has to defend against all challenges and every possibility. so that is the dominant theme of the internet age is that challenging is easier, being an incumbent, whether it's a corporation or a politician, is harder and more dangerous and more volatile. neil: good insight. edward, i was thinking with the australian prime minister and the president, neither of those guys were expected to be where they are, yet here they are. i'm wondering when you talk to people at the white house and all that, do they worry about these polls? do they worry about all this stuff? >> no, i haven't heard worry about the polls. i think the president is secure in his base, from just the feeling i get out of the white house is he feels very secure farmers are with him, his base is with him. they look past the polls. look what happened to the polls in 2016. neil: a.b., that's what they are hanging their hats on, right? >> yeah, well, being secure in

his base is not likely to be enough, if there's an incredibly energized turnout on the left, which republicans that i talk to are worried about. so after 2018, they really saw a much broader, deeper coalition come out in a midterm election. that doesn't bode well if you are a republican for the presidential cycle. the president's base is not the majority, is not a plurality to win. he needs to register new voters. he's not governing to a bigger coalition. he's not in a persuasion business. he better hope every farmer turns out, then he has to get new voters around the edges to make sure he secures an electoral college victory. neil: unless the voters on the other side don't show up. we'll see. i had one viewer say don't forget about ulysses grant. no idea what that means. we have a lot more. we have the dow down 128 points here. concern increasingly about this canceled farm meeting. a lot more on that after this. ♪

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neil: all right. we are learning here that this sell-off might have had everything to do with that planned tour of the montana farm tour that was canceled at the last second, apparently for good reason. we're told it was on the heels of the president's remark that he wouldn't accept a partial deal. as soon as the chinese delegation that was to visit, it was supposed to be a series of montana farms, they canceled. so that's an interesting development in and of itself. edward, what do you make of it? >> chinese watching every word the president says and the president tweets. there was a phone call, we understand, from beijing to the delegation here saying cancel

the trip. neil: so did they think that they were working on anitial deal, deal with the other stuff later? >> that's what the chinese would like to do. they would like to deal with some of the -- neil: they must have been under the impression that could be in the works. >> they were trying to get to that direction. in order to do these talks. yeah. clearly they were listening, didn't like what they heard and said no, you're not going to go. neil: what do you think? >> i think it's a little bit to save face. the tit for tat -- neil: you are very jaded for someone so young. >> i'm jaded in the sense of i think it only matters until we have something, whether thaps like a cease-fire or trade deal. neil: clearly they were under a different impression, right? >> don't they have to do that? because they want to seem strong? we would probably do the same thing, no? neil: they had a strategy they were going to cancel at the last second. what do you think? >> i think we are truly, you are reading the tea leaves for people who drink a lot of tea. neil: this is a nerd's version

of a black ops story. you have to work with me. it does on the crazy surface make a little sense, if the president is maybe or has led people to believe he's open to a partial deal, and all of a sudden, he's saying unequivocally not, and they hear that, someone from beijing calls -- >> because edward says it, i believe you're right the chinese are hanging on donald trump's every word, that could drive anyone insane. the fact they're not going to show up in big sky country tomorrow is probably not in the long run -- >> i think they don't know how to read him. neil: they must have been under the impression he was open because we were just talking about this the other day hey, they might be open to another deal or watering something down, getting something is better than getting nothing, and he makes it clear no, no, no. >> or it could just be the good will, we have good will on both sides, good will on our side, good will on their side, all of a sudden he comes out with a very harsh statement so now they need to respond to save face. neil: well, he could up the ante

by saying i will reimpose those tariffs. >> tomorrow he could change his mind. neil: what do you think happens? >> i think you get closer and closer to these talks, i don't think you are going to have dramatic improvements or not improvements. i think also to think about the election, the chinese economy, our economy, yes, things look really good, but you know, i think he's also kind of a bit concerned he doesn't want to overstep his boundaries. >> the president did say he does not believe there could be a trade deal or he's not looking for a trade deal before the election. neil: it happens, great. if it doesn't. >> he's fine with that. neil: he does say different things. >> yes, he does. i don't think any of us here, i don't think any of us thinks this just drives him to some wider and wider gulf that becomes, you know, uncontrollable and given that i think a general sense of optimism provails. neil: i'm blaming edward lawrence. all right. don't forget, the big interview

coming up in half an hour. the dow on pace to snapping what had been a three-week winning streak. after this. at fidelity, we believe your money should always be working harder. that's why your cash automatically goes into a money market fund when you open a new account. just another reminder of the value you'll find at fidelity. open an account today. . .

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like me-ow. neil: the dow down 108 points right now. again it is trade, it is confusion. time for charles payne. charles: neil, thank you very much. good afternoon, everyone, i am charles payne. this is "making money." president trump making it clear he wants no part of a short term deal with china. sending a ripple effect. china canceling a farm visit to montana. what it means for the agreement. two members thought they shouldn't have taken any action at all. boston's eric rosengren he is here to explain his reasoning in a fox business exclusive that airs this hour. apple trying to rekindle the magic. unveiling a new iphone at the renovated iphone store here in new york but what you want to know is apple a buy after a