stuart: you're tearing up. >> i am. stuart: eric, you're a damn good man. >> everybody is. we'll miss you guys. it has been a great 13 years. i will miss you guys. stuart: thank you, eric. my time's up. the rally in progress. neil it is yours. neil: good for him. maybe he is leaving because of you? stuart: probably. neil: no way of knowing. stuart: undoubtedly. neil: no way of knowing. wanting to break the emotion. thank you, eric. stocks are popping. president putting progress on the trade front. he will meet with the vice premier in little 2 1/2 hours. investors are sensing something is happening here. let's get read from courtney dominguez, payne capital management advisor. we have also yurian timber. you were i and i were talking during the break, something is coming together. at very least, president holds off on additional tariffs,

because something looks like it is. that will be deemed a victory. do you share that? >> i agree. even a mini victory will be great for the markets. that is priced in. people are so nervous about a trade war. businesses and consumers are holding back investing cash right now. $3 trillion sitting in money market fund, the highest in history. people are still -- neil: 3 trillion in money market? >> correct. neil: like money under the mattress. that has to be put to work. >> money going to put to work. if you get uncertainty lifted that is a whole lot of money going into the markets to lift it higher. neil: the old story of lore, markets in this anticipation might sell on the fact. where do you think this goes? >> certainly this has been an ongoing drama for two years now. we've seen this movie before. expectations run high. then they get dashed. i do think there is some momentum here for at least a truce. certainly in china's interest to

buy some ago products from the u.s. they have the african swine flu to deal with. it wiped out a lot of livestock. pork prices are 50% up. neil: they need pork from husband. >> they need the livestock supply and so i products for feed. it would be to save christmas as called by delaying additional round of tariffs next year. because those tariffs do hit consumers more than the previous rounds did. i think this is real. it will impact the market as it has. it is probably not going to be all encompassing deal that deals with all the other issues like intellectual property, technology transfers. so it is a limited scope. it is a win, and market rightfully pricing that in. neil: markets are pricing in would remove for the time-being

uncertainty. as you and i were chatting coming into the studio, markets ignoring impeachment drama. maybe they are sensing nothing will come of it but that is remarkable. >> it is. traders are trading more on political headlines t will affect businesses and consumers more than impeachment. based on trading people are not seeing that as big of a risk. neil: even if you said it would go full throttle, this gets more tangled likelihood of happening in the senate is not there. surprises can happen. generally, impeachment just raises all these what ifs. you're not worried about that? >> i wouldn't say i'm not worried about it but the market is very efficient separating, you know, risks that are systemic to the economy, to profit margins, earnings, things that the stock market cares about. that sounds maybe cold-hearted. neil: yeah.

>> all of you guys are. neil: but you could argue -- >> could argue that the markets should be looking at only that, not political theater. unless it really affects systematically the economy down the road which it could but right now probably won't. i think the market is correct separating the developments that immediately impact the market and of course trade does. it affects profit margins, earnings growth. that directly influences the price level that the market should be trading at. neil: flip side of potentially good news, courtney, bonds don't have their lure. to add to that safe haven, interest rates back up little bit. last time i checked the 10-year was a little north of 1.71%. maybe the federal reserve doesn't cut as much. sounds damned you do, damned if you don't, what do you make of that? it is higher than i thought. 1.75 now. >> we saw manufacturing data,

ppi numbers came out a little softer than everyone expected. neil: talking about wholesale inflation? >> that will give fed reason to cut interest rates. neil: not a 50 points? >> i think the fundamental data has been solid f they cut rates i do think it is going to be a good thing for the markets and so far i don't see a reason why they wouldn't go opposite what they have been saying. neil: if it is a quarter point being the expectations later this month does anything to date change that? >> not really. the bond market is looking for four more rate cuts. the fed is not likely to go along with that, unless it is forced. neil: four more would bring us under 1%. >> ism fell to 48. so the industrial economy is clearly in some contraction led by the global manufacturing

cycle but the consumer in the u.s. remains healthy. 70% of the consumer spending in the economy. they are in a real bind. do they look at couldn't dent gained to its economy is okay. do they give insurance cuts back in 90s. hoping that will inflate the system. any positive developments on trade will lend to that playbook of this is a mid-cycle adjustment. not start after full easing cycle or recession. neil: good. because we don't have a lot of wiggle room. >> they have a lot more than other central banks. neil: you're right about that thank you both, very much. let's look how tech companies are doing here. they would be on the front firing lines if you will on any potential deal. they are feeling pinch if the chinese market suddenly evaporates on them. apple, google. they're among bigger comeback stories. you see with amazon and apple and microsoft. they're all seeing advances.

apple in and out of all-time highs for that. this is not without good reason. "barron's" senior writer john schwartz. what do you make of that reaction? as a group tech stocks are responding, most strongly to the development? >> so much more at risk than anybody else. apple in particular, 20% of their revenue comes from china. so eminently important for them or qualcomm or intel. a lot of their success is tied not just into the iphones but the iphones are made for the vast majority are in china. so increase of tariff would have a brutal circumstance for apple. the talk of a short term, even limited deal within the next few hours or days would mean significantly a lot for apple. we also have the story about the iphone sales which are doing much better than anyone expected. neil: why is that? it was a very impressive phone. it was supposed to be a place

keeper for the time-being until 5g related phones came out. so much more than that. what happened? >> i'm baffled with the same reason. the event was dinged. wall street analyst the -- neil: i think it is the camera. defied expectations. >> the camera got a lot of good press from "barron's" in particular. the price is cheaper than previous iphones that were announced. the big thing, maybe the secret weapon is preview of apple tv plus streaming service with your new device. neil: i forgot about that. >> jpmorgan raised estimates on iphone sales. plus maybe the people are finally upgrading after several years of not upgrading because of the previous phones. neil: it is cheap to keep. that new service, even if you didn't get a first year free with a device, under five bucks? >> 4.99 a month. cheapest of all the streaming options. absolutely. the 5g is coming out in 2020. in a sense apple was making

gains before the china news came out. it is something, i want to expand on something your guests said earlier. it is interesting, with all the other issues looming, not just impeachment but with all the big government investigations of fang companies you know, nothing really seems to matter. look at facebook's stock. it just keeps climbing. same thing with apple or amazon or alphabet. neil: year-to-date it is up 3% or so today. year-to-date, with everything going on that is up north of 41%. >> right. neil: amazon 16%. google, almost 20%. so with all those crosscurrents, and both parties looking to have hearings or chop them up right now it is remarkable. >> i think the reaction will be that the worst-case scenario for these companies they will get fined. they will be able to absorb the costs. maybe they build into the systems like facebook eventually, they learn from their mistakes.

that is a quantum leap maybe with facebook. i think the fines themselves will be small enough not to bother the investors but i think what would really bother the investors some sort of breakup which i don't think that is going to happen. neil: the president, elizabeth warren, that could change. we'll see. always good having you my friend. you guys were way ahead of this trend don't rain on this parade so soon. there are other factors that might save these stocks and companies and you were right. thank you very much. sean. >> thanks. neil: meantime all of this with a market advancing 377 points, off our highs for the day but remarkable when you think all this churning and happiness over trade masks a market kind of just ignoring what is happening on the impeachment front. to blake burman on that from the white house. hey, blake. reporter: neil, there was a big win for house democrats earlier today, this morning, seeking eight years worth of the president's tax returns as the u.s. court of appeals here in

washington, d.c., the district court gave a 2-1 ruling in democrat's favor, maziar's, the accounting firm which the president uses, has to hand over, or at least has to comply with a subpoena calling for the president's tax returns. the two judges who ruled in favor, 2-1 decision, two judges ruled in favor the s&p is both valid an enforceable. they say the burden rests with the accounting firm, not the president, writing the following in the decision, it is maziar as a third party that will retrieve and organize the relevant information. the s&p seeks non-confidential records that the president asserted no proprietary or evidentiary and mazarss, not the president risks non-voluntary compliance. jay sekulow said while we're reviewing the court's len think decision and judge rose's

dissent, we do not believe the subpoena is not a legitimate exercise of congress's legislative authority. the length of this, neil, 130 plus pages. the decision was. treasury secretary steve mnuchin, treasury department has not handed over the president's tax returns. part of the argument from the administration, part of their point of view this serves no legislative purpose which is what jay sekulow alluded to in the statement there. so now we await for the next move from the president and his legal team. what they decide to do and whether or not they try to bring this before the supreme court or not. neil? neil: in that appeal they don't have to hand anything over in the interim, right? reporter: i do not believe so. it is rather lengthy. i believe what happens next to see what the president and his administration will do next. as you saw in the statement there, from jay sekulow, they do not plan on complying with this at all. neil: blake burman, thank you very much. blake at the white house.

we're getting word from the pentagon it will deploy 2000 additional troops to saudi arabia. the same week we indicated we'll wind down our troop presence in northern syria. 1000 soldiers leaving northern syria. most of them in the process of doing just that. 2000 more troops to saudi arabia. stay with us. it was that voice asking me, "is your daughter ok?" that's where i felt relief. we're the rivera family and we plan to be with usaa for life. see how much you can save with usaa insurance.

now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call, we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99. shipsticks.com saves you time and money. make it simple. make it ship sticks.

shipsticks.com saves you time and money. to the wait did frowe just win-ners. prouders everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today.

neil: all right, on very week we're taking troops out the northern syria we're adding 2000 into saudi arabia. the pentagon is set to deploy anti-missile systems as well, just a precaution regarding more provocative behavior by the iranians. jackie deangelis what this could mean for a host of thing, including the saudi big ipo.

wherever that is going. reporter: absolutely. this comes after a saudi arabian tanker off the coast of saudi arabia was damaged. the owner suggests that it might hit by missiles. iran doesn't blame any particular entity for attack. they accused iran of attacking saudi oil facilities with missiles and drones this is ratcheting up of tensions in the middle east. it raises tensions over the potential saudi aramco ipo. bankers could give a valuation of the state-owned oil giant any minute now. the crown prince suggested $2 trillion. the actual number is expected to be significantly less. one 1/2 trillion seems to be a little more of a realistic target. once the valuation is out there, book runners, jpmorgan, goldman sachs, morgan stanley, they will go out to try to sell this deal to potential investors. the offer is expected on the domestic saudi exchange.

there was talk about london, maybe a listing of new york. listing a company in saudi arabia would help the kingdom with the economic reform agenda. this is one to watch with the conflict in the region right now. it certainly could get interesting. neil: jackie, thank you very much. something else interesting, i want to pass along the united auto workers in a statement a few minutes ago, the general motors strategy, that the two of them talking upwards of a month now, not going anywhere. saying management is playing games in the talks. mary barra and the union head had a sit-down face-to-face to try to resolve these differences. they don't appear to be making progress. the stock is up but i should point out the one-month this has dragged on the stock barely moved. we started this around $38 a share for gm. who have he hovering 35. not a huge hit one way or the

other. we'll have more after this. 2,000 fence posts. 900 acres. 48 bales. all before lunch, which we caught last saturday. we earn our scars. we wear our work ethic. we work until the work's done. and when it is, a few hours of shuteye to rest up for tomorrow, the day we'll finally get something done. ( ♪ )

hi, my name is sam davis and i'm going to tell you about exciting plans available to anyone with medicare. many plans provide broad coverage and still may save you money on monthly premiums and prescription drugs. with original medicare, you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you have to meet a deductible for each and then you're still responsible for 20% of the cost. next, let's look at a medicare supplement plan. as you can see, they cover the same things as original medicare and they also cover your medicare deductibles and co-insurance. but they often have higher monthly premiums and no prescription drug coverage. now, let's take a look at humana's medicare advantage plans. with a humana medicare plan, hospital stays, doctor office visits and medicare deductibles are covered. and, of course, most humana medicare advantage plans include prescription drug coverage. in

fact, in 2018, humana medicare advantage prescription drug plan members saved an estimated $7400, on average, on their prescription costs. most humana medicare advantage plans help you stay active and keep fit by including a silver sneakers fitness program at no extra cost. and, you may be able to save on dental and vision expenses, because coverage is now included with most humana medicare advantage plans. you get all this coverage for as low as a zero dollar monthly plan premium in many areas. and your doctor and hospital may already be a part of humana's large network. if you want the facts, call right now for the free decision guide from humana. there is no obligation, so call the number on your screen right now to see if your doctor is in our network; to find out if you can save on your prescriptions and to get our free decision guide. licensed humana sales agents are standing by, so call now.

>> it has not come up in terms of people asking me about it, nor has our record of human rights abuses come up either. people in china didn't ask me about, you know, people owning ar-15s and mowing each other down in a mall. the world is a complex place. there is more gray than black and white. neil: golden state warriors coach comparing china's human rights abuses to those in this country. as the nba canceled all media events in this china trip. they were able to get one game in without incident making sure players didn't talk. sports money co-host on all this. that came out of the blue. what did you make of it, mike? >> i think this will be an inflection point, neil. what that was coach speak, i don't want to talk about it because we do a lot of business

with china. this is going to mark a point in our country where the sports leagues, and the players are no longer will get full support from the media as advocates of social justice because of everything that is going on in the world now, between taiwan, china, and so forth, the media is, did not have the nba's back on this, and come out like they did in support of nba when they pulled the all-star game from charlotte a few years ago, because of the lgbtq law and stuff like that, or the super bowl with the nfl in 1990, because arizona, did not have support for martin luther king paid holiday. this, believe me is an inflection point. sports leagues have been called out. neil: you know, yesterday we had you know, sports industry watcher was saying a lot of this has to do with nike. nike, he is charging has a double standard comes to this

stuff. abuses in other countries fine. in ours, not so fine. target that and worse here, not so abroad. and it is nike leading this. what did you make of that? >> oh, i think that is 100% true, neil. nike only gets about 16% of its sales from china. but last quarter the revenue grew 22% compared to north america where they get 40% of their revenue but it is only growing at 4% year-over-year. it is no circumstance, coincidence that nike's stock fell dramatically at first when this news broke. but soon as the league started protecting its players, many of whom have shoe deals for nike, actively visit china and go there and promote the shoes and they're treated as celebrities, rock stars, that when once the league came out and started protecting the players, nike's

stock rebounded. nike is a big, big player in this. neil: you know, mike, i know players in china, you're not going to be speaking to the press. we're going to make sure that you don't. players being players. and artists, if you will, they're going to. so when they do, more than a few will pipe up and say something about this. and, hornet's nest is revived again, right? >> absolutely. in a way the nba is lucky this happened now. right now china represents, i would say, maybe 6% of the nba's total valuation. 57 billion, total for the nba. nba china is about 4.5 billion. imagine if this had happened say, five or 10 years from now and china, and the nba were growing much more? they would have had much more significant impact. there is a parallel here, neil, i believe what's going on with the united states in general and

its battle with china and trade. you know, it is much tougher for us to deal with this now than it would have been say, 30 or 40 years ago because it is interwoven much more dependent on one another. neil: mike, just finally, what's to stop us from calling china's bluff? in other words, saying all right, you're strong-arming us, see how it goes with the european basketball league. get back to us how popular that is yet we're always on defense? >> adam silver, the commissioner of the nba, neil, sort of done an about-face. they immediately delete ad initial tweet came from a houston rockets executive when he started all this tweeting supporting taiwan, stranding strong with taiwan. they got a huge backlash from the media, wait a minute, there is a lot of hypocrisy you guys are supporting social justice. are you doing this just because you do a lot of business with china? of course they know they did. then adam silver did a about-face said in effect we

support all forms of social justice. you know, he will have to keep an eye on this. again, since china, the nba has been there 30 years, 25 years. china is still a relatively small percentage of the nba's revenue. so, he basically did what you're suggesting, said you know what, the to heck with you guys. i'm not going to stay in bed with you guys an risk all the bad publicity here. the growth for basketball is still the strongest in north america. neil: yeah. if they see you blinking they know you will blink again. anyway, mike, thank you for that update, education. we needed that. mike ozanian following this very closely. keep you up to date on the dow. still up appreciably today, i don't want to minimize that. we were up in the vicinity of 500 point earlier a lot of you are wondering what happened. a lot of people are chewing on this demand by a court that the

president and his account and turn over his tax records to a house committee looking into this. and others looking into this. so the sort of tick, tick, tick on those tax returns and their eventual release, that is how it is felt by a lot of folks eventually will get released, whether publicly available, someone will sneak it out, that seems to be ongoing pressure point for both sides as the impeachment issue heats up on other matters. then there is the subpoena surprise. you remember when our ambassador to the european union gordon sondland was told, the state department said i cannot talk to you guys. he decided to overrule that? you know what? i think i will. after this.

oh, wow. you two are going to have such a great trip. yeah, have fun! thanks to you, we will. aw, stop. this is why voya helps reach today's goals... ...all while helping you to and through retirement. um, you guys are just going for a week, right? yeah! that's right. can you help with these? oh... um, we're more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help... sorry, little paws, so. but have fun! send a postcard! voya. helping you to and through retirement. my body is truly powerful. i have the power to lower my blood sugar and a1c. because i can still make my own insulin. and trulicity activates my body to release it like it's supposed to. trulicity is for people with type 2 diabetes. it's not insulin. i take it once a week. it starts acting in my body from the first dose. trulicity isn't for people with type 1 diabetes or diabetic ketoacidosis. don't take trulicity if you're allergic to it, you or your family have medullary thyroid cancer,

or have multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2. stop trulicity and call your doctor right away if you have an allergic reaction, a lump or swelling in your neck, or severe stomach pain. serious side effects may include pancreatitis. taking trulicity with a sulfonylurea or insulin increases low blood sugar risk. side effects include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, belly pain, and decreased appetite, which lead to dehydration and may worsen kidney problems. i have it within me to lower my a1c. ask your doctor about trulicity.

♪. neil: glad you decided to join us. that's it. that is all i can do. half italian, half irish. these guys are all italian, all attitude. if you haven't been there it is iconic mecca for billionaires, big market, big business kingpins. owners were here. gerardo giuseppe. and is it katso. we have our own, missing one person here, right? >> me. neil: obviously charlie

gasparino. firsting one. giuseppe, about gerardo and kosmo. i wanted it to be a opportunity, charlie thought it would be a very good idea to get the power broker feel. your restaurant caters to very successful men and women who come in. they do a lot of business deals there. ken langone. it's a big deal. >> before we start, where is the money? neil: really? do you have to foist the image of italians -- >> honorees of the columbus day parade which is monday. neil: wow. they asked all of you, if they picked one over the others that would be a problem? >> they fight with each other constantly so it is great. neil: do you worry about encroachment of the olive guarden or no? >> no. neil: just checking. that money crowd, the guys who go to your restaurant, when they get together, do they get

together as often? you hear this talk about the economy starting to get a little bumpy? >> sometimes. neil: yeah? what do they say? >> well, they say basically four months, three months, things will change. europe will go down, china, all these economies. >> that is ken langone right there. neil: don't say anything bad about me. whatever you do don't say anything about me. >> langone, what, the reason i got to these restaurants, particularly, all three of them, when i had, worked at different publications, i'm covering wall street. i found out that the wall street elite, they're still there. larry fink from blackrock. ken langone. >> for years. >> dick grasso. trump, jr., i see there all the time. neil: is that right? >> they're all at the restaurant. i used to hang out at the bar. neil: you wouldn't chase them down in the middle of link genie? >> when grasso beat spitzer, he

was having a celebratory dinner at san pietro, gerard looks at me. okay. i called up my producer, i was cnbc at time. get a camera guy outside. when he walked out we sandbagged him. neil: did the guy ever come back? >> yes he did. >> he blamed me. >> charlie also interviewed -- neil: dimato. >> how are you going to do it? i want to make him an offer he can't refuse. >> i remember that. i caught a lot of guys coming out of their restaurant. neil: sort of considered the italian four seasons, right? that kind of influential crowd. some want to be seen. others don't. how do you handle that? >> what is his name, joseph perllo from morgan stanley at time. he said, at the san pietro was the power lunch of city of new york. neil: what is that does it? you're not cheap.

even brokerage houses wince at the expense account. >> if you have two guys in the restaurant every morning, ken langone, john pirollo or john mack, everybody will be there. neil: you want to be with that crowd. >> you want to be around those guys. neil: like you and at tad's. >> we're with our people. neil: you don't have people. what are you talking about? >> the other thing is this, two things that wall street guys appreciate for these folks, they came here with nothing and built something, like an empire. it is amazing. came here as busboys, waiters. i know your story. neil: you guys are good cooks besides. you know what you're doing. >> other thing restaurants in new york are expensive. these guys deliver the goods. that is what the wall street guys take. they wouldn't pay if it was bad food. >> absolutely not. neil: you don't sit on your reputation. i'm not doing a commercial. you don't sit on it. >> our industry has developed

day by day, season by season. neil: does it help, a lot of your customers are almost recession or slowdown proof, right? they're not going to cut back on stuff, right? i mean, has business increased with the tax cuts and wall street boom? >> that neil: really? >> the $15 minimum wayne, that is not helping. the increase -- neil: what do you do, have to cut back on staff? pay them in linguini. >> at least calamari. >> we have the best crowds in new york, i can tell you for sure in new york because we don't cut on the best products or best foods or best ingredients. we don't cut back on ours. neil: there was temptation, not yours, to cut back maybe lower quality meat.

>> never. neil: you didn't follow that. i remember morton's steakhouse. he did the same thing, i'm not going to dial it back. >> but also our crowd comes from all over america. neil: many families, i always see looks like business people. >> then we have international crowd. international crowd. more americans travel abroad, the more they appreciate restaurants like ours. neil: do you get lot of russians coming in. >> depends on the seasons. neil: what is their season? election year, right? i'm joking. it's a bad joke. >> if he saw ukrainians there. >> a lot of people come from russia during the united nations session. neil: that makes sense. you have to book well in advance of your place. what do you have to say to get in. >> couple weeks. neil: wow. what if i said i know charlie. >> right in. neil: kick families out.

>> you get a seat at the bar. >> maybe should come with the judge. [laughter] neil: but it is interesting, because i'm wondering when you get close to an election year and the power crowd and brokers and they're all in and fund-raising all the rest, a lot of them pop into your restaurant, right? >> yes. neil: do you ever listen in on the conversations? microphone in like the bread basket. >> there was a meeting in 2009, there was head of goldman sachs and another guy, another big shot, all of sudden it came up on the news the day after. so the guy from goldman sachs sent an investigator to see unthe table. >> i broke the story. it was meeting between lloyd blankfein and larry fink. i found out about it. so they thought -- neil: you can tell a lot see people together. >> it was about who they were going to support in the next election. >> exactly. >> it wasn't in 2009. i think around the romney thing.

i quoted larry allege heedly saying, we're not going to support obama this time around. larry freaked out. they sent investigators in there to say who told me. >> blankfein told me you are a disgrace. then i said, i told him -- neil: picking on the wrong guy. >> wait. again one of the, one of, and i'm a goldman sachs guy. what happened? what did i do. if that was important meeting why don't they do it at home? not in the restaurant. >> they know to do that in secret. neil: you guys are richer than all the wall street fat cats. what is the signature dish. >> san pietro, clientele come from san pietro since 1992 when they open, they are not fussy

eaters. looking for super expensive dishes, foods. they -- neil: one simple dish? >> simple dish that people like, larry fink enjoys, jack welch enjoys is spaghetti with the fresh cherry tomatoes. neil: is that right? >> yes. they enjoy the branzino. neil: you have to do that. >> fresh peas and fava beans in the summertime. larry fink a big lover of that. most, like, most important business people that they travel eat every day in the restaurant. neil: no one is cutting back. sounds like no one is cutting back? >> they don't need fussy. neil: president elizabeth warren comes in. she will curtail a lot of business activity. that is what her critics say. are you worried about that?

>> yes. neil: don't speak your mind. >> you never [inaudible] >> tell you funny story. kerry running against bush, 2006. neil: john kerry against george bush. >> against george bush, everybody thought kerry won. exit polls had him winning. i'm sitting in san pietro, having dinner, gerardo, mr. gasparino why are you so sad? we're getting kerry as president. no, no. my sources say i just spoke to them, he is going to win. i think -- neil: george bush was going to win. >> i think your source was rudy at time. we turn on the tv. south carolina, they start changing. they have information. >> at the last presidential election we had group of customers, they came to san pietro to just watch the election. they stayed there until like 6:00 in the morning. neil: saw a big change.

>> and you know, it was like about 90 people and -- neil: everything went upside down. >> are 11:00, 11:30. some left. we'll stay until 6:00. neil: boom. final word. i will pay dearly for that. we'll have more. sort of get a lay of the land from people who see the power brokers every day. in fact they're the power brokers. we'll have more after this. grazi. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call, we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time, guaranteed, for as low as $39.99. shipsticks.com saves you time and money. make it simple. make it ship sticks.

neil: all right. we're up 371 points right now on the dow. a lot buoyed by growing confidence or at least lifting of tariffs that were going into effect next week. too early to tell. we're seeing a second day of talks, for the markets we're sighing bye-bye, that has something to do with it. gerri willis on floor of the nyse. reporter: neil, we got news

moments ago, china finalized calling the entities list. these are companies from china's point of view that severely damaged the legitimate interests of chinese firms. could be anybody on this list. they could talk about google, qualcomm, intel. reuters further reporting that publication of this list which beforehand has never been seen outside of china depend how the trade talks go. yet another thing dependent on the trade talks that has been the big story today. the dow up 371 largely on this. some 100 point of today's upside also came from the federal reserve. their announcement they will buy $60 billion worth of treasury billions a month to stablize the repo market. a big headline going on. bank stocks moving higher. goldman sachs, morgan stanley, jpmorgan chase, adding to gains on headlines the chinese will open their arms to u.s. financial companies. that news out late yesterday. stocks have been moving for two days on that.

generac shares hitting new highs as hundreds of thousands remain without power in california. generac is the nation's biggest maker of backup power generators. the ceo will sit down with liz claman this afternoon at three testimony. you have to tune in for that. neil, back to you. neil: gerri willis thank you very much. on all of that, the corner of wall and broad. bonds are sort of a subset the flight to quality, safe haven, anywhere you park money under a mattress, the equivalent put them in treasury notes and bonds. today there is less reason to do so. the money going out of bonds into stocks, that lifted 10-year yield to a hi of 1.75. last year people would say a rate like that would say we're going to hell in hand basket. that could be a problem for financial institutions. they're benefiting from a trade

agreement that could sooner rather than later. when we come back, before you do that here is a little history lesson we'll explore, when it comes to politics, every front-runner in both parties over the last quarter century, has never won. more after this. on business every 39 seconds. ouch. i don't even want to think about it. comcast business has a solution. we go beyond fast with a cloud-based security system that automatically updates, so you always have the latest protection. phishing. malware. risky sites. it can help block all of that. it's one less thing for us to worry about. comcast business securityedge automatically protects all the devices on your network. call 1-800-501-6000 today. ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ that's why xfinity mobile lets you design your own data. you can share 1, 3, or 10 gigs of data between lines, mix in lines of unlimited, and switch it up at any time. all with millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. it's a different kind of wireless network, designed to save you money. switch and save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus, get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone.

that's simple. easy. awesome. call, click, or visit a store today.

neil: quick snapshot looking at 2020 front-runners among the democratic candidates, joe biden, war was, bernie elizh warren, bernie sanders, to hear the experts tell us no way one of those guys will not emerge as

nominee. careful coming to instant conclusion. in 2003, howard dean was up big, looked like john kerry was going nowhere until he was nominee. at this exact time in 2007, hillary clinton looked like she was running away with it, till a guy named barack obama running away with it from her. doug wead is here to remind us history has a way to bash consensus estimates. doug, good to have you. >> good to see you, neil. neil: i can remember when scoop jackson, henry jackson, washington state senator would be the democrats 1976 nominee, a fellow named jimmy carter won. again and again on both sides we see it, yet we snap to these polls which are only thing we have, but we have come to the conclusions that is where it is going to go, right? >> yeah. well polls are very useful. they're relevant for raising money. they're relevant to get into the

debates. as party rules are defined they become more and more important. they are not relevant for picking the next leader as you point out until you get right down, when the rubber meets the road 2012, michele bachmann, herman cain, rick santorum. neil: blasts from the past. doug, appreciate that. another thing i noticed we get locked into sort of beliefs that are i am moveable. that in 1960 john kennedy might be able to get the democratic nomination but certainly couldn't win, too young, too inexperienced, going up incumbent vice president of the united states richard nixon. that didn't pan out. even when it came to jimmy carter it, would be tough for him to beat gerald ford until it wasn't. what did we get wrong?

what do you advise us to do even in the media about handicapping these? sometimes only what we have to go on and to your point money they're raising and attention they're getting? >> they start out with a heavy dose of humility. neil: yeah, you're right. >> sometimes the pollsters and media try to revise it. there was a poll two weeks before the 2016 election where abc "washington post" picked hillary by 12 percentage points. you can't even find that story online now. they have had it removed. it's a bit embarrassing. dose of humility. neil: what happens though, when, we have a, time like today, all the industrial states where the president is having a tough time in virtually all of them, in some cases down double digits to joe biden and elizabeth warren, we talk about the silent trump vote that might be there but is there enough of that vote that could make up for those huge gaps? >> you know, i just have written

a book, it won't be out until the end of november, it is called inside the trump white house. and i interviewed the president and all of his family. they spent hours talking about the polls and brad parscale and models he used and numbers people they attracted to the polls who had not previously voted, therefore weren't on anybody's list. it is really a byzantine world and they have hope based on their numbers and they were proven right once before. so i wouldn't, i wouldn't bet money on the next election at all, not this early for sure. neil: absolutely. i agree with you, doug wead, thank you very, very much. when we come back the latest polls what they say right now is going to happen in this election. no. just be careful. more after this. very drones, or the latest phones. no commission. no matter what you trade, at fidelity you'll pay no commission for online u.s. equity trades.

neil: all right. do we know about whether they ordered out or did they go out?

they left. yesterday they ordered in from an area restaurant and that had some people talking, maybe they were close to something. but again, it wasn't supposed to be a second day of talks, right? deirdre bolton is following all of that from the white house. what's going on? reporter: so at 2:45 eastern time, that is where all the meetings recommence, of course, right here at the white house. i want to highlight for you, though, at the other location essentially where hu the treasury secretary, u.s. trade rep and vice premier of china, liu he, meeting this morning at the u.s. trade rep's building, there was a bit of a cheerier tone. you could actually see waving which is a little bit unusual, some smiles there. one interesting thing just to note scheduling-wise is that this chinese delegation is leaving today, full stop. basically, if something is going to get done this round, it has to be today. now, the president of course has

been tweeting and one of the ones that i saw, i'm going to paraphrase here, he's essentially saying when he is in the room, he can get things done. i don't have to go through the very long and politically complex congressional approval process, when the deal is fully negotiated, i sign it myself on behalf of our country, fast and clean. sources saying it does make a difference when president trump is in the room and that the ball can be carried forward in ways that it really can't when he's not in the room. two key parts, neil. there's a lot of conversation and some sources telling me that if the u.s. does not go ahead in raising tariffs from the current level of 25% on $250 billion worth of chinese goods to 30%, as predicted or as telegraphed, if you like, as of tuesday, that that will be seen as a sign of good will from the u.s. side. some other news that broke this morning that i think is very significant is from the chinese securities regulatory

commission, and what they've said is that if a u.s. financial company sets up shop in mainland china as of january 1, 2020, that company, that american company, will no longer be bl obligated to be forced into a joint venture with a chinese company. that's key because as we know, the forced joint ventures with local chinese companies, that's essentially how all the i.p. theft which we know is really at the crux of this trade tiff, trade war, however you put it, that is exactly how it happens. i think that's significant for two reasons. one, it's going to make u.s. companies more likely to go there, these financial companies, and two, i think it's a way to really hurt hong kong. hong kong is the financial center for western companies in asia. if you make it business-friendly for that particular industry on the mainland, you hurt hong kong. back to you. neil: that's a big development. if they get the chinese to agree to that, that alone could be a

monumental -- reporter: the chinese have agreed to that, and i think they have agreed to it because it makes the american side happy and then it also has this dual benefit for the chinese side of hurting hong kong. neil: yeah. but of course, we are always skeptical the chinese, what they're promising because they do a 180. normally they pull something out because they suspect the administration could pull something out. at the very least, are you hearing then that this tariff thing will be pushed back? i mean, that would maybe justify a good deal of the runup we've seen? reporter: yes. i think when our sources are telling us that a partial deal may be achieved today, that is exactly the focal point that people are working on, this idea of okay, we're not going to raise the tariffs another 5% as of tuesday. but whatever happens, the conversation here, and it has to be wrapped by today, because the chinese delegates, their plane leaves this evening. neil: they've gone out to lunch. we know that. maybe they settled all that before going out to lunch.

thank you very much. great reporting, as always. well, stocks on track to stop what had been a three-week losing streak even though we mightily came back, it wasn't enough to make it positive. the read on all this from rebecca walser, also notorious fashion plate, deroy murdoch and connell mcshane. welcome, all. let's go into the significance of what deirdre pointed out. a lot of people with a yawn say all right, we'll extend the deadline for the tariff hikes but if the chinese have agreed in principle to this idea that they force companies to coop with chinese companies, that would be a big deal, right? >> that's one of the seven deadly sins of china, so yes, i'm so glad it's more than soybeans. i'm just so excited we're not just going to be talking about soybeans.

neil: it would still not get us back to the levels we were at a year ago. >> true. absolutely. so yes, we just expected sort of a pause, de-escalation and temporary hiatus of what was supposed to happen in escalation next week so this is really tremendous. this is going, i mean, no wonder the market is reacting so positively. this is awesome. i'm so excited about that. it's a is it your sense the markets could be getting ahead of themselves? i always say they buy on the rumor, they might have to sell on the fact. we do have these sort of civil reactions in the market, soaring at the slightest bit of good news although, you know, this is ostensibly good news, then just tanking on -- >> i think the markets can be temperamental, bipolar, if you will. this is terrific. if this is for real, the chinese will say you can come in, you don't have to have a chinese

partner, the chinese partners as we know sometimes come in at 2:00 in the morning and copy the business plan, the i.p. and whatnot and off they go with the brand new company. neil: this would be for new companies. >> but it's a great step forward. i never heard in all the time we have had relations with china we could open a business without having a chinese minder in the room with you all the time. if they stick with this, it's a huge step forward, if we can move it from financial services to other industries, all the better. >> it makes sense. china's point of view, the way it's structured, deirdre's reporting and providing the analysis which was key on hong kong, because think about this, years ago, even earlier this year, maybe, the thinking from the chinese point of view on hong kong would have been much different. it is a free and open society and allows them to keep their society more closed because financial companies and other companies were able to operate, you know, like they were in the western world in hong kong. but now there's a different relationship between the two so you have china with its own semi-autonomous region saying

how can we stick it to them which is an odd point of view for them to be in, but it is one that's there. we asked for months how would the hong kong protests affect the chinese trade talks with the united states and china. maybe, again, we don't know yet, but maybe this is the way. i don't think a lot of people would have thought of it. neil: i'm wondering who benefits, then. you can say today, 10 of the 11 s&p sectors are up, minus utilities and that's not surprising. you don't need a flight to quality or haven in an environment like this, but technology, with all of this, has had an enormous runup this year, even with all that noise, even with investigations to crack down on facebook and google, amazon, to a limited degree, apple now in and out of all-time highs, so is that, you know, just pushing it too far? do those stocks really have room to grow much further in this environment? given the fact they keep running up? >> well, you know, we thought that the stock market, the

dot-com, you know, runup was, this is the new high and then obviously we have now smartphones and everything, self-driving cars, all these things are all technologies are always evolving. neil: with the exception of a lot of those that ran up, the justification for that runup, those names i mentioned, whether you like the companies or their style doesn't matter, they have a successful business model. >> a lot of these stocks go up, up and away even though the companies don't make profits. that's a cool magic trick. one of the reason stocks are up 400 points, not just what's happening in china but i think this may be wall street voting on impeachment. we just saw yesterday -- neil: they ignore it. >> -- ukraine saying there was no blackmail, i didn't know about the military aid being held back so rather than growing, that story is shrinking even though the democrats are screaming and yelling about it. the substance beneath it seems to be weakening. neil: there's always something smoking. right now the quest to get the president's tax returns, another court saying you have to hand them over, mr. president.

this could go to the supreme court. we don't know. two guys, associates of rudy giuliani's, apprehended by the government here. there's always something festering. but the markets are ignoring it. >> i think, i mean, i could be wrong, but i think they would if the news was good or bad. i have been skeptical of the impeachment inquiry's effect on equities in the united states from the beginning. i don't know that it has much to do with it. neil: went up through the whole clinton thing. >> of course. it may go up through this. this week the data showed, our own fox data, the likelihood of the president being impeached and removed from office is growing more popular with the public. that's shaken off by the markets as well. so even when the news is good or bad, we are still reacting to things like china and the other big fact that it still hangs over the market and the question is even bigger today, how will the federal reserve interpret all of this. for now, seems to be everybody seems to be thinking they will keep cutting like crazy. neil: they wouldn't cut as much. now all of a sudden, you have anticipation of a strong trade

agreement or stronger, you could make the argument that the fed doesn't have to move, certainly not as aggressively. >> that's been my argument for awhile. i have a real cautious bent on a federal funds rate of 1.75 to 2.0. how much power do we have if something does go wrong, if china blows up like it did in may and we don't get a deal at the end of the day, they don't sign on the dotted line, then the market will drop and what does the fed do with that, at a 1.5% federal funds target rate? >> especially if things are really so great, this china deal is what it is, and we don't know yet but presuming that it is a positive for stocks, and you know, consumer confidence comes in better than expected again, so now you're saying to yourself do we really need low interest rates. the odds of -- neil: i always wanted that from the outset. do we need to cut, for other reasons, but -- >> we also saw some new figures on median house hold income. up 8.2%, about $5,000 per household.

that's serious money. that perhaps speaks to maybe the fed keeping its m.o. neil: i always worry wall street is not a bastion of red or blue, it's green. through bill clinton they didn't want him thrown out. keep the good times rolling. >> good for the economy, actually. >> they are still thinking they are going to keep cutting rates. as of wednesday it was an 80% chance of a quarter point cut at the end of the month. this morning, it was still 65% or something like that. neil: dropped a little bit. >> yeah. but they are still thinking, the majority still think we will see more cuts. neil: we will pursue that again a little more on what's happening on the impeachment front. as this 2020 race drags on and on and on, the language is getting increasingly shall i say nasty. take a look. >> hunter, you're a loser. and your father was never considered smart. he was never considered a good senator. he was only a good vice

president because he understood how to kiss barack obama's [ bleep ]. there's a power in listening; it's what gives audible members an edge. it opens our minds, changes our perspective, connects us, and pushes us further. the most inspiring minds, the most compelling stories: audible. car vending machines and buying a car 100% online.vented now we've created a brand new way for you to sell your car. whether it's a year old or a few years old, we want to buy your car. so go to carvana and enter your license plate, answer a few questions, and our techno-wizardry calculates your car's value and gives you a real offer in seconds. when you're ready, we'll come to you,

pay you on the spot, and pick up your car. that's it. so ditch the old way of selling your car, and say hello to the new way-- at carvana.

to the wait did frowe just win-ners. prouders everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile let's you design your own data. now you can share it between lines. mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. it's a different kind of wireless network designed to save you money. save up to $400 a year on your wireless bill. plus get $250 back when you buy an eligible phone. call, click, or visit a store today.

neil: all right. we a're in a stock market rally. the feeling i guess is it's not rallying that much when you consider the fact an iranian tanker was attacked off the coast of saudi arabia. any other day, at any other time, much like the attack on the saudi oil fields, we would have seen oil prices doubling or even tripling. that certainly would have been the arab oil embargo situation. not this go-round. meanwhile, the new eu ambassador gordon sondland is ready to testify on the ukraine. remember, he had opted not to when the state department told him we think it's a good idea for you not to.

on his own, he's going to testify. on the fallout from all that, blake burman at the white house. reporter: that testimony from gordon sondland will be coming next thursday. you sort of ran through the timeline of all this which is significant, because you will remember sondland was supposed to go up to testify up on capitol hill before house democrats earlier this week, on tuesday morning, but that was scrapped in the very minutes into hours leading up to that testimony, and then later that afternoon, it was white house counsel who sent the letter to nancy pelosi saying the administration would not comply with the impeachment proceedings going forward, but sondland, who is currently the u.s. ambassador to the european union, he is going to give his testimony thursday of next week, so it means that he's going to be going against the official guidance at least for the moment of the administration. this is what he said, want to highlight a couple different points in his statement earlier today. first of which he said quote, notwithstanding the state department's current direction to not testify, ambassador

sondland will honor the committee's subpoena and he looks forward to testifying on thursday. however, sondland also notes that he will not be able to give the full slate of documents to democrats that they want, noting that he's a state department employee. the other part of his statement reads quote, ambassador sondland does not control the disposition of his documents. he will be going up to the hill but won't be able to give democrats everything they want. also today, the former u.s. ambassador to ukraine, masha yovanovitch, her testimony was also delayed at one point but she has now been giving it. next week as well in addition to gordon sondland, fiona hill, who had been an adviser to the president on issues like this, is scheduled to go up and testify as well. so some movement on the testimony front. neil: thank you, buddy. before i get to some of these other issues, i want to get reaction to the fact the markets

have a collective shrug to this. they don't think much is going to materialize. right? >> absolutely. i think what was it, 10 or 12 hours or so, the president of the ukraine had this very long sort of rolling press conference and came out and say a number of things very clearly. one, quote, there was no blackmail, end quote. he also said he didn't know the military aid was in fact suspended. he didn't know that at the time. it's a little hard to hold somebody up with an invisible gun which was essentially the story here. i think if that news comes out and we learn more about the back story of this apparent or this scandal, it just seems like the initial claims we heard a couple weeks ago are just not holding up. i think probably wall street is looking at this and figuring that this is turning more in the president's favor if not politically, certainly in terms of the evidence or lack of evidence. neil: literally just in the last minute or so, we have something new on steve mnuchin. black to bla back to blake burman? reporter: as soon as i tossed back to you, the white house announced secretary steve

mnuchin will be holding a briefing in the press briefing room at 1:45. that's about 27 minutes from now. but let me pause there and caution you, you might be thinking well, does this have something to do with china and trade, might the treasury secretary be giving an update on that. i'm being led in the direction that this briefing does not have anything to do with china, does not have anything to do with trade. might the treasury secretary be asked about that when he steps into the briefing room, as he just left the u.s. trade representative's office after about seven, eight hours of negotiations yesterday and a few more this morning, sure, i'm assuming maybe myself or my colleagues will ask, but this briefing for steve mnuchin in the briefing room about half an hour from now, i'm being told, not china related, not trade related. i don't know specifically what it might be related to. but we will hear from the treasury secretary himself shortly. neil: all right. thank you, blake, very much. i'm thinking is it tax return

related. >> could be a lot of things. sanctions. the treasury department would have oversight over sanctions. there's been speculation. it could be related to that. didn't think of the tax return thing but if i had to bet, just hearing about it, it would be something related to sanctions if it's not trade but i don't know. neil: always a wild card development. right? >> it's disappointing the d.c. circuit today ruled that the administration would have to comply and go ahead and turn over or the financial accounting firm could turn over trump's tax returns. neil: i get the feeling one way or another the tax returns are going to get out. >> i do, because everything will come out, including the whistleblower's identity eventually. that's not going to be prevented. the thing is, we can't have state prosecutors and federal prosecutors and we just cannot have, you know, political differences leading to different groups all across the country deciding let's hope open an investigation on the president and issue subpoenas.

neil: it will likely go to the supreme court. the argument that a lot of these, first of all, house committees are looking for these tax records, cyrus vance jr., the attorney in the southern district of new york, what they want is a way to prove some of these payments went to nefarious purposes and how they were described in those tax returns. it seems to be a bit of a maybe a specious way to go about getting the tax returns when there might be a bigger agenda but regardless of your views on the subject, these returns are going to get out. >> i suspect this will end up in the supreme court, more than likely. but again, this is an ongoing fishing expedition. if the taxes are clean, let's go back and look at his high school transcript. let's look at his college grades. neil: i got yours. the supreme court analogy makes a lot of people go back to by unanimous vote 9-0, the supreme court said you have to release the tapes, richard nixon.

the court could surprise you that this is a bigger issue. i know they're night and day but what do you think of that argument, it's forcing this tax issue. >> they might. these ultimately come out. if this were driven by we are looking for specific evidence on a crime, as far as the investigation, that would be one thing. i think this is keep looking, looking, looking until we find something so we can kick trump out because the democrats are the biggest sore losers in the history of -- >> just a point on that. that was the supreme court during an actual formal impeachment investigation. not somebody that was outside the congressional process of impeachment. that is our formal process through our constitution to deal with a sitting president. it is not a prosecutor in the southern district of new york or state prosecutor, and that's exactly the problem. we have -- the supreme court will want to contain what can be done while a sitting president is sitting in that position running the country. neil: a lot of lawyers have a take on this. a state, municipality, cannot force the president's hand which is why these committees have seized on this. this is a national issue, it's a

federal issue. >> yeah. i think, boy, i know when things are above my pay grade and whether or not the tax issue goes to the supreme court is definitely one of those things. big picture, probably right that we do see them one day. but the president is already facing enough political pressure on impeachment for the time being, and i think go back to your earlier question about how the markets are shrugging all of this political noise off, i think big picture, we take all of this about the tax returns coming out, will the president be thrown out of office, the markets are still looking at a big picture scenario, the most likely scenario that the president of the united states is impeached but stays in office. i think as long as that's kind of the baseline scenario, they will worry about other things. neil: it's not political as much as we don't think it's a worry for now. all right. >> i'm worried that if he gets removed that would be a different story. the market would not be doing this today. neil: now we will know in another 20 minutes or so we will hear from steve mnuchin on

something that does not have anything to do with trade, presumably. so everyone's guessing. wall street just keeps fine. after this. imagine traveling hassle-free with your golf clubs. now you can, with shipsticks.com! no more lugging your clubs through the airport or risk having your clubs lost or damaged by the airlines. sending your own clubs ahead with shipsticks.com makes it fast & easy to get to your golf destination. with just a few clicks or a phone call, we'll pick up and deliver your clubs on-time,

guaranteed, for as low as $39.99. shipsticks.com saves you time and money. make it simple. make it ship sticks. but when i started seeing things, i didn't know what was happening... so i kept it in. he started believing things that weren't true. i knew something was wrong... but i didn't say a word. during the course of their disease around 50% of people with parkinson's may experience hallucinations or delusions. but now, doctors are prescribing nuplazid.

the only fda approved medicine... proven to significantly reduce hallucinations and delusions related to parkinson's. don't take nuplazid if you are allergic to its ingredients. nuplazid can increase the risk of death in elderly people with dementia-related psychosis and is not for treating symptoms unrelated to parkinson's disease. nuplazid can cause changes in heart rhythm and should not be taken if you have certain abnormal heart rhythms or take other drugs that are known to cause changes in heart rhythm. tell your doctor about any changes in medicines you're taking. the most common side effects are swelling of the arms and legs and confusion. we spoke up and it made all the difference. ask your parkinson's specialist about nuplazid. everyone has something to say. but in a world full of talking, shouldn't somebody be listening? so. let's talk. we are edward jones. with one financial advisor per office,

we're built for hearing what's important to you. one to one. edward jones. it's time for investing to feel individual. the nba has always been a league that prides itself on its players and coaches being able to speak out openly about political and societal affairs. i just wondered after the events of this year and the fallout we've seen, whether you would both feel differently about speaking out in that way in future. >> excuse me, basketball questions only. >> this is an event that's happened this week during the nba. >> [ inaudible ]. >> this particular question has not been answered. neil: that's a little extreme. the houston rockets press official shooting down a reporter's question on the nba, the china dust-up, the nba later apologizing for blocking the

question. you could see what was going on there. the woman's trying to get the question out, you're doing this, should do this. see what i did there? all right. so is the nba just making sure right now that no one, no one risks raising an issue that might tick off the chinese, including their players who have been forbidden to talk to the press but once they're back in this country, you know they are off to the press. what happened? >> one of the worst public relations, this is going to be taught in business school and everything else, instead of the tylenol case, we will have the nba's handling of this china case. it's just been a disaster from day one, having to correct mistakes they made the next day. in this case it wasn't an nba official, it was a team official. they're not used to being put in these situations, i guess, but they should have been prepared for this situation. this reminds me if you cover sports at all, if an athlete has a personal controversy, maybe they got in trouble with the law, whatever the case may be, the p.r. people say only ask him about baseball, about football, and they think they can enforce

that in the middle of some sort of global crisis they found themselves in. obviously that's impossible to do. it would be much easier to let the questions be asked now, to your point, then you wouldn't have to answer them later. neil: no, no, no, i want to go ask about this. they heave him out of there. where is this going? they look very all over the map. i noticed team owners putting it in the contract that well, this is business, we are free to speak out about things we want to speak out about but it gets worse and worse. >> what's so ridiculous is where this started. it's not like darryl morey took a chinese flag and burned it in the middle of the basketball court before the game. he put on twitter a very simple message, fight for freedom, stand with hong kong. totally anodyne, yet the whole nba world collapsed over this. which shows how they cweak they and thin-skinned the chinese are. neil: it drew more attention because they did it. >> that's his opinion. he's welcome to it. neil: i wish we would call their

bluff a little bit and say all right, well, you want to kick us out, we're leaving and deal with the european basketball league. that should work out just fine. >> or their own league. neil: but we didn't. >> i hope this wakes americans up to how beholden a lot of america already is to china, and -- neil: we have not made that part of our trade discussions. whether that's a good or bad thing. >> true. but i think a lot of americans just think you know, we have this problem with china and you know, i don't want my computers to cost more, my walmart prices to be more. but there's a much bigger issue and this just goes to show americans that are just paying attention, what do you mean that, you know, a coach can't tweet something out and the next day, chinese contracts are being canceled and the game was almost canceled, the preseason game in shanghai was almost canceled, went forward with no media, no coverage on state tv. china is so controlling and this is not america, people.

we are not talking about how it is here. >> there's a real discussion about who holds the upper hand in all this. i don't know the answer, but it's good we are having the discussion about this. american companies forever assume that because china has such a large population, they were kind of in control, we have to be careful about how we handle it. but the chinese populace loves american brands, whether -- it's true, kentucky fried chicken, mcdonald's, all this kind of thing, also products like apple and they love, as a fact, they love nba basketball. so if american companies stand up and say these are our values, and you know, sure, we will operate in your country but we will also stand up for our values, would china really, to your point about calling their bluff, want to ban the nba? they might have an issue if they did with the people. because then, you know -- neil: that's fine. i don't want to jump on you there but we are getting tentative reports of the u.s. and china have, in fact, reached a partial agreement that would broker a truce to the trade war, a broader deal that could be followed up by president donald trump and xi jinping of china,

and signed later this year. we don't know about a lot of the details. but right now, the market is moving fast on this. we were up about 350 points, now we are up about close to 400. we don't know the details but as you were reminding me, the market wants something resolved one way or the other, because even a lousy deal is br thettern no deal, right? >> i can't wait to see what the list includes. it's not going to be a full comprehensive right now, i don't think, although this is huge news. i just can't wait to see details. i was not expecting it. neil: it includes that aspect where it's going to say the chinese are no longer partners with american firms and watching them and copying from them, stealing from them in the future. that could be significant. >> it's significant and look, it would be great to a full deal but if this is like obamacare repeal, remember the skinny repeal, repeal part of it, if this is a skinny deal with a bigger deal down the road, if this calms things down, we don't

see import taxes going up, this is the biggest question mark in the economy, if this can be cleared up i think the markets go up, up and away. neil: the market has been waiting for it for a long time so it's interesting to see on the fact that it is fact, whether even the treasury secretary raises that later on. we don't know. but it would provide some closure for markets that just wanted certainty, right? >> or a big sigh of relief for today. thinking about this for so long, all right, let's get through the weekend, then we'll think, on monday we will start to think about the next step in all this because there obviously will be a next step. the way they phrase it and talk about it i think will be interesting because to the point everybody has been talking about, if you want to get say, for example, getting rid of the forced joint ventures, how are you doing that. and how is that being handled from the chinese point of view because it's been almost obsessive from china's point of view to come through this negotiation without making changes to, as they see it, their national sovereignty or we would describe it the laws of

their country. if they can write this in as a new regulation and it becomes the blueprint for a wider deal next year, that's a really good sign from the american side that we can get what we want without having to have china make an actual change to their law. that's the last thing they want to do. but they will bend on certain issues. maybe we are seeing that today. neil: we don't know the details of this. more and more services are now reporting a tentative deal has been reached between the united states and china, a partial trade deal that we have been talking about. not necessarily the sweeping one that calls for very major structural reforms in china, how they go about their business, what they require when it comes to intellectual property and all the other stuff that a lot of u.s. businesses will complain is a rigged system that if you want to do business there, you have to sort of surrender virtually your company books to the xhien nie chinese to make sure you can do business there. we are waiting for developments including the treasury secretary of the united states who will have a briefing a little bit,

the treasury secretary steve mnuchin. we were told it might not have to do with this. now maybe it does have to do with this. maybe it has to do with sanctions on turkey, given its pretty aggressive offensive with northern syria. so much we don't know. this much we do. stocks have picked up about 60 points on the dow. the dow now over -- it had been up over 500 a little bit earlier, 27 of the dow 30 issues are up. technology stocks are moving up smartly. apple is up about 2%. amazon, more than a percent. netflix, 2.5%. google, close to 2%. microsoft and facebook, up 1% and 3% respectively. they are among those thought to be instant beneficiaries from any sort of trade settlement here. we will stay with this, keep monitoring this and the impact of this. one of the things that comes to mind is, all the details, but as you remind me, it's all in whether the two sides can then grease the skids and get

something more substantive down the road. the markets might not need that right away or even significantly down the road because they can take their sweet time because this is the big enchilada. i'm sure to be included in this, more details on more agricultural purchases and the rest. >> absolutely. the soybeans will come back in. you know, this is exciting. i think businesses, u.s. businesses have really wanted stability especially for future investment. this is going to be just a welcome breath of fresh air. i don't want to be pooh-poohing anything. a word of caution, because we got the deal in may -- neil: you are absolutely right. >> after 15 months of this back-and-forth, we need something here and let's hope that's worked into this whole situation. neil: if you talk economic history, ronald reagan, you know, trust but verify. we want to trust, that the chinese will stick to whatever they are agreeing to, but that we can prove it.

in other words, we will have a metric, you said you would buy more soybeans, how many more. you said you would buy more american wheat, barley, that rt so sort of thing, et cetera. >> we obviously want details, we want things we are able to verify, but i call this the big wanton, if you will. we have all been waiting for something to happen on this after two years of this going on and on. even if it's a partial deal that gets us moving forward, that's a big, big, big plus. again, this is probably the biggest aspect of uncertainty in the economy. we get some certainty on this, the economy really charges forward. neil: you might have noted the president sometimes tips his hand. we always get that feeling before a report comes out, he knows what the next day's job report is going to be. he did intimate yesterday he sees good things, he followed up on that today. so i think you said this before, there's a sense that, you know, maybe the is were close to being dotted, the ts crossed already and they were formalizing it. too early to tell.

what do you think? >> i would say the way the joint venture requirement was eliminated, i think it's a good sign. just reading through the way they did it in the press conference, china said they were going to get rid of this joint venture requirement, but we are going to have our regulatory agency, china is the securities regulatory commission, take back what had been essentially a regulation that was put in place. again, as i was saying, that allows them to say that we just kind of -- it sounds like a small thing but it's really at the heart of what they have been negotiating for a year and a half, we can make a small change in our regulations or rules without having to make a big change that affects our sovereignty or changes the laws of our land and go through the politburo and the rest of it. the way they are announcing and structuring this, probably hopefully from the point of view of people who want to see a deal, would be a blueprint to get something larger down the line. assuming that this isn't something large. assuming this is just the first step in a process. which i think most people think it is. neil: all right. you are watching the briefing room at the white house right

now. not too utilized these days. it will be utilized today. the treasury secretary expected to update reporters on what we don't know for sure. it might be reports that the united states and china have come to a partial trade agreement, what has oftentimes been reported to be a truce, not so much a trade deal, but just the hostilities are being swept aside as the chinese make good on the commitment to buy more agricultural items and we presumably make good on a commitment to delay or cancel outright tariffs that were to go into effect next tuesday. susan li is with us, follows this region very very closely. what are you hearing? >> i hear it's a feel-good truce for now because it is about buying agricultural products. that was expected. also, the tariffs are put off from going up in october and also december, expected as well. i don't see a whole lot of surprises here. but does it lay the groundwork for something more foundational in the future, possibly. you guys talked about the

access, market access and the fact financial firms might be able to wholly own their operations in china. they already approved jpmorgan for these 100% owned brokerages in china but that took three years. they promised they would review these licenses for three years. first one to get it was ubs, then i guess because of the trade war, that's when jpmorgan nomura and other names got approval, 100% owning their own brokerages on the mainland. neil: we are following this closely. everyone stick by. we are waiting to hear presumably from the treasury secretary of the united states. could be a host of issues. might be on this so-called tentative trade deal, truce, whatever you want to call it. might be the escalation of impeachment tensions that right now our ambassador to the european union, even though he was told by the state department not to go to congress and testify, he opted to do just that. that's raised some hackles that he's going to do that, gordon sondland. could have something to do with that. could have something to do with turkey getting very aggressive in northern syria, reports of at

least 100 kurd soldiers killed, maybe more. others have put it up to 1,000. we don't know. we are also following maybe our response to what seems to be this iranian tanker hit. the iranians claim it happened overnight. that sent up oil prices a little bit. no way of knowing, but all this is happening concurrently with the dow jones industrials up about 414 points. again, the biggest catalyst for this, as it has been all day, buying on anticipation of a tentative deal or truce, whatever you want to call it, and so far not selling on the apparent fact that maybe they have one, making money host charles payne on all that. charles, what are you hearing and what do you think of the reaction we're getting? >> i think the reaction is probably the reaction we should have expected and again, i think you framed it the right way. this is not a deal. i think the use of the word deal invites scrutiny of the idea that it's finalized. i think this is -- if it's a book, it's chapter 13. the 13th meeting. but i think it changes everything. now we have an inflection point.

everything went down the drain, the tone was different, china rejected what they had agreed to. we started almost from square one. this gives us momentum toward that eventual deal. it also gives us sort of, you know, anticipation that maybe it can be done. concessions made by both sides. a much more conciliatory tone, perhaps we will hear from president trump now what we are waiting for is to hear he will push off the october 15th tariff increases and the december 15th tariffs that were going to come online, suspend them, use whatever language you want to use. you combine that, by the way, this other great things that have happened today, the consumer sentiment number, phenomenal, and we had earnings that suggest maybe we are not in a manufacturing recession. the biggest movers today aren't tech stocks. they are materials stocks. they are industrial stocks. there's a lot of good news today. neil: you know, charles, we have been reporting, with connell here, all together, tick by tick, minute by minute, that a lot of ceos, cfos, chief financial officers, have, you know, sort of cut back on their

purchasing plans, on their hiring plans, because of the uncertainty around trade as one of the things jerome powell, the federal reserve chairman, has addressed as to why there's more of an appetite and an interest and actually urgency to more interest rate cuts. does that lessen now if it looks like we've got a deal? tentative or, you know, partial though it might be? >> i don't think so. again, according to the consumer sentiment report, consumers are looking for a dramatic drop in inflation over the next year and even bigger drop over the next five years. in fact, the biggest drop in history going back to 1979. remember, every time jerome powell talks about interest rates, while he may talk about his contacts in the business community, he always talks about it vis a vis what consumers are anticipating. right now, consumers are anticipating significantly lower rates and i think that means the fed must follow through. neil: we should stress here for those of you just tuning in and why the stock market is up, the dow is up 427 points here,

interrupting three weeks of declining dow, this notion that a trade deal has been scored, i should stress probably a trade truce right now, that would lay the groundwork for a broader deal to come down the road, presumably in the next week or two to lay out the particulars for that. not a broader deal, but just how they will go about that. back with us, susan li on that. one of the things that we are waiting -- two-minute warning for the treasury secretary -- that this was the goal, that we weren't going to get anything done in a sweeping fashion, but that we would pick away at it. it's obviously going to raise questions, could you have done this a year and a half ago. >> right. yeah. very good point. if you think about it, it probably took a year and a half for china and the u.s. just to get to this point. i think china had to go through that economic pain of looking at their stock market and also the slowest growth they have seen in 27 years and the u.s. had to hear some of it from the consumer side as well and maybe from the electorate saying we

don't want to pay higher prices in the end, nor see job losses. i think it probably took a year and a half to get to this point. where we get from here is pretty important as well. this is probably a feel-good deal for now. it doesn't get worse, but does it necessarily get better? i'm not so sure it does. but does it lay any ground work for maybe better talks in the future? possibly. neil: we are waiting for the treasury secretary of the united states and gosh knows who else could appear. if you are looking from an investment angle and all of a sudden it could remove some of the uncertainty that a lot of these purchasing managers have had, we heard about the contraction going on in manufacturing versus a year ago, still up appreciably from where we were, but the concern that that was getting in the way of economic advancement, that potentially goes away, right? >> this is 15 months of back and forth, 15 months of sugar highs, crashes. it's like what's going on, you know. so yeah, i mean, we need some

stability. and it's so hard, because you don't want to sacrifice a real deal for stability. neil: treasury secretary of the united states. >> president trump and he has authorized and will be signing a new executive order giving the treasury department in consultation with himself and secretary pompeo very significant new sanctions authorities that can be targeted at any person associated with the government of turkey, any portion of the government. this will be both primary sanctions and secondary sanctions that will be applicable. the president is concerned about the ongoing military offensive and potential targeting of civilians, civilian infrastructure, ethnic or religious minorities and also the president wants to make very clear it is imperative that turkey not allow even a single isis fighter to escape. again, i want to emphasize at

this point, we are not activating the sanctions, but as the president has said, he will provide very significant authorities based upon the continuing efforts. so he will be signing this, they will be active, we will be working in consultation with the department of defense and department of state to monitoring this very quickly. we are putting financial institutions on notice that they should be careful and that there could be sanctions. again, there are no sanctions at this time, but this will be the broadest executive authorities delegated to us. reporter: when you spoke with the president, was there any concern about the action he took that led to this, and can you tell us when would you put the sanctions in? what would it take for you to actually activate? >> okay. well, no, i don't think he thinks his actions are what led to this. it is a complicated situation.

it's a situation that we're all concerned about and the humanitarian situation, and there are very clear discussions that will be going on between the department of defense and the state department. i just got off the phone with the finance minister, and we will be communicating specifics that we're not going to telegraph. reporter: can you give us an update on the china trade negotiations? >> i didn't think anybody would be asking me about that. reporter: trade negotiations that are going on today. is it possible we get to the end of the day today with no new specific deals agreed to, or are we definitely going to -- >> i wanted to make sure everybody knew in advance i wasn't talking about china, because i didn't think i was calling a specific chooina meeting. we have had productive discussions, ambassador lighthizer and myself with the vice premier and others. we will be meeting with the president shortly. we will be updating the president on those. he will then be meeting with the vice premier. i wouldn't be surprised if like

usual, he decides to invite a few of you in. but i'm not going to make any other comments in advance of us meeting with the president. reporter: the stock market is very optimistic about what it sees over at the ustr's office. are they right to be optimistic? >> the stock market is always right. reporter: is there reason for optimism? >> again, i'm not going to make any more comments. i said we've had a productive two days of discussions. we will be making more announcements after we meet with the president. reporter: so far, turkey has not been dissuaded by anything this administration has done, or the president has said. what makes you confident that the announcement that you just made is going to change turkey's -- >> i don't agree with your premise. i'm not going to comment on specific confidential discussions that have been going on on different levels. i don't think that's a good premise, but again, these are very powerful sanctions.

we hope we don't have to use them, but we can shut down the turkish economy if we need to. reporter: how does the threat of these sanctions help the u.s. allies who say they have been abandoned? >> again, it's a complicated military situation that is ongoing. there are discussions, i think the president has had very specific discussions, as i said, the department of defense, we have expectations. this is a way of making sure that we protect the humanitarian issues and the other people on the ground. reporter: as far as you know, have any plans specifically changed about president erdogan still visiting the white house? >> i'm not aware of anything that's changed but again, i'm not confirming that. i just haven't heard anything one way or another. reporter: what kind of consultations are you having with lawmakers like lindsey graham, who have been really very critical of the pullout of u.s. troops in syria?

>> secretary pompeo has been speaking to them daily. i have been speaking to the secretary multiple times a day. i think the message to congress is i know people were contemplating sanctions. we're on top of sanctions. the president will use them when necessary. thank you, everybody. neil: there you go. this had to do more with turkey and its aggressive moves in northern syria that had been deemed too aggressive, criticism of the president mounting that he all but laid the groundwork for the turks to do what they're doing, and president erdogan to do what he's doing. they had threatened sanctions and xheconomic measures, they kp doing it. the treasury secretary momentarily referred to what's going on in china and reports of a deal but he clearly didn't want to upstage his boss, the president of the united states, who might address that later on. what's got the markets hopping isn't so much on the sanction front, but what's happening on the trade front with china and reports that the chinese have

agreed to a broad list of demands that the united states had, including buying more agricultural products from the united states as well as open up their markets in a more aggressive way than they have in the past by not strong-arming u.s. interests to necessarily demand that any company who wants to do business in china has to have sort of a chinese partner. the cynical read of that has been that that chinese partner is kind of looking at the books and policing all the secrets that are unique to american companies. now, if that were true, it could explain then that the united states has again reportedly backed away from tariffs that were to go into effect on tuesday and might scrap them all together. but as we have been reporting here, a lot of this has to go back to the notion of trust but verify. in other words, whatever agreement has been sort of laid out here, the chinese will stick to that because we really don't know many of the details outside of saying that the talks that were uncertain, the fact they moved into another day, this has gotten people hopeful that

something was scored, something was done, and when the vice premier meets with the president of the united states in less than an hour from now, maybe then we'll have all the details we need. that will be my colleague's hour, as a matter of fact. charles payne, if it works out to the degree, maybe he's gone, getting ready for his show, as he naturally would. connell, if it goes to that, that it's not sweeping, but it's something, and it's a start and puts the animosity aside, that's an achievement. >> it is. it's an achievement, i think the immediate followup question then comes in about time frame, and does that achievement and the way it's structured, something we talked about earlier, kind of set the table for a larger agreement and maybe speed up the timetable, or does it slow it down because it's bought both sides time. there's all these business arguments the chinese want to quote unquote, wait out the president beyond the 2020 election. neil: that picked up steam. >> it might pick up more steam now in some ways. i don't know which side of that to take, but if you say from china's point of view hey, we

have this in place, we don't have tariffs going into effect in december, and now we have bought our severaselves from ti united states can make that same argument now, we can forget about this for a little while and move on to deal with some other things. does it buy time or speed up the process, i think is the great unknown right now. we don't really know what's in the deal yet. neil: we don't. the treasury secretary of the united states wasn't going to jump the gun, or give any of the thunder -- steal it from the president. what he did outline is that the administration is seriously considering sanctions on turkey for what has been a brutal offensive in northern syria right now, directed directly at the kurds, our allies against isis. a lot of criticism on both sides of the aisle here that the administration made the wrong move, that it just sort of precipitated isis elements to sort of reemerge again. this is the administration's way of effectively saying i hope they're wrong on that. so president erdogan, if you're thinking of that or if you are continuing to do this, you might want to dial it back some.

so it had nothing to do with the china front even though we are getting indications that the administration is poised to move on the sanction front against turkey, just not doing it yet. this is an opening salvo to the turks to stop it. we will see what they are going to do. back the o my panel. susan li, what might come of that meeting, the president has with the vice premier, he came here without the title of envoy this time, right? the significance of that was that it wasn't necessarily seen as a promising development or that he'd go back to the xhichie president with a deal. >> last time he was in d.c. in july, this is the first face-to-face in just a few months time, but i would say that liu he taking this meeting with the president in the white house, you know, we have a deal-making president so he feels that probably face-to-face, pressing the palms, may engage the chinese a little more. neil: we wouldn't have that if the president thought we weren't, right? >> liu he, from the chinese vice

premier side, probably wouldn't engage in this type of public photo op if he didn't feel there was something deliverable in the negotiations. neil: you know, i'm wondering, too, what precipitated this moment? remember, they were getting very agitated with each other, we were talking about de-listing chinese companies, talking about, you know, going after, you know, chinese entities that have anything to do with huawei. we still don't know the huawei factor here. and of course, the chinese were going after the nba and going after "south park" and going after apple, back and forth. it certainly was a nasty stage setter. then this. what do you think? >> i mean, i'm at a loss for words. this is unusual. i would just say to president trump, congratulations, because no president before has had the nerve to do this and this has taken nerves of steel. 15 months, almost two years of back-and-forth, ups and downs, people screaming all over, american businesses that, you know, all of the u.s. business associations saying this is a mistake, and yet we know the

long-term path of china is to not have america be the global world economic leader. they want that title. they are after it. and they are after it hard. i hope this is a great moment in the white house this afternoon. let's hope that the deal has teeth. neil: we'll deal with what we've got. the president always argued, this is where i get impeachment stuff back, i don't know why you're impeaching me all i'm doing. markets are doing great. economy is doing great. i scored a deal with china. it looks that way. what are you thinking? >> something susan said, why the chinese stepped forward. economy weakest in 27 years. conversely they're slipping looking across at the pacific to us. best jobless rate in 50 years. best female employment in 65 years. this is ever growing u.s.

economy and there's are shrinking. maybe that is reason they're crying uncle. >> we'll see if they are crying uncle. we'll see if there is something down the line. can't ignore the president of the united states is under a great deal of political pressure to get something done. this is up there. impeachment is getting more popular. criticism from both sides of the aisle. most notably people like lindsey graham big supporters on turkey news. we see the announcement. that we might have sanctions. it is clearly prompted by the political pressure he is feeling. a victory or the announcement what is seen something of a victory in china is needed here too. >> see if they have anything on currency that piqued my interest. i have never seen. neil: what does that mean currency pact. what does that mean? we always said the chinese rigged their currency. rig i had it to make their own exports. >> still a managed currency.

it doesn't move very much. i would be curious. we had treasury labeling china a currency manipulate first time in 25 years. what does currency pact mean? neil: or that you got us. >> we have to make very transparent announcement anytime we're involved in currency markets at all. so there is no kind of, we'll see. >> perhaps linking the yuan to the dollar? that might be great. neil: guys, thank you all very much. before i hand it off to charles payne, the dow is up about 440 point. all those issues that would benefit from improved trade environment. apples, amazon, netflix, googles, microsofts, facebooks, industrial, materials, financials, health care, even health care they would all benefit if we calm the heck down

with the trade front from the chinese. they're all benefiting. interest rates picking up. who needs to worry about federal reserve interest rate cuts. we'll still worry about that. for now a deal could be at hand. now charles payne. charles: we want our cake and eat it too. neil: if you have a cake, eat it. charles: if they have a fed you might as well cut rates. neil: absolutely. >> i'm charles payne. this is "making money." breaking out trade talks with china about to come to a head. in moments president trump meets the chinese vice premier at the white house. as new reports say there is partial agreement with beijing. the united states may be on the verge of a better economic relationship with china, america companies are doing big business there. they are doing big soul-searching. the moral cost should be the bottom line. if you're on social security, listen up. more money may be coming y