season we were talking about netflix and "stranger things." set a digital streaming record. 40 million people worldwide watching this. they need that with apple tv plus and everybody else. charles: i have to start watching it. neil cavuto, i'm not sure if you're a "stranger things" fan. neil: that is every day, every day here. i have the lawyer on line one here. thank you very much. we're following phase one, push back from this deal doesn't look like a deal working out. the chinese, chinese are the ones thinking about dotting is and crossing ts, we thought it would be other way around this is creating more confusion. what is the deal with the deal we thought the deal that is apparently not quite a deal? to blake burman at white house with the latest. reporter: neil, there is very clear there is lot of work to be done here even on phase one of the president talked about the potential of three different

faces as well. there is also going to be, it is clear, a lot of communications between the u.s. and chinese negotiators here in the upcoming weeks as president trump said this could take three, four, five weeks, maybe until the apec conference middle of next month to get quote-unquote, papered. earlier today i asked treasury secretary steve mnuchin what a mode rap might look like over the upcoming months and this was his response. >> the current plan there will be deputy level calls this week. principal level calls next week between ambassador lighthizer and myself and the vice premier. those are things that are planned. i wouldn't be surprised if there is deputy level meet national person. i think our expectation we'll meet with the vice premier in chile before the presidents meet if there is any final issues. if we need to have in-person meetings more in-person meetings to get this done, obviously we'll do that. reporter: the details within

phase one have yet to be produced. mnuchin says the key items are broken down into several chapters, only some of which are in in the first phase. >> chapters in the original agreement. intellectual property rights. we have financial services and purchases. so i don't know, that is however you count it, 3 1/2 or four of the chapters. then the president said, we'll move immediately to phase two. reporter: forced technology transfer could be in chapter two. china said couple days more talks are indeed necessary. there was headline that spooked markets regarding talks. a spokesperson for the foreign ministry described last week's talks this way. saying the sides held quote, candid, efficient and constructive discussions. that is the way it was characterized today in china.

neil? neil: i get the impression that the chinese did not like the way they were sort of placed in a corner in that oval office meeting on friday though. that, they were kind and you know, cordial and all the rest but the president was making it sound as a done deal, substantial deal, substantive deal, all of that but they were not quite convinced it was. reporter: i was inside the oval, neil, as this was happening, the headline off the bat was a substantial phase one deal. the president broke it down that way. talked about all the big-ticket items, talked about a huge deal, ag purchases, et cetera. china i do not believe used the word trade deal. they said even in their statement today that they listed all the different items but they're not necessarily characterizing this as deal. saying over the weekend, there was quote, unquote substantive progress. that is the way they're putting it. bottom line here, a long way to

go. neil: indeed that is what the markets are chewing on. blake burman at the white house. ed, you've been arguing over short of what was maybe trumpeted, but now the question becomes what now? you know, it is a move forward. i guess what the markets are churning on is how much of a move forward. what do you think? >> yeah i think that's a great question, neil. when i was fielding phone calls late last week, especially as we whipsawed around in the market, i was starting to get more questions, is there something more than a mini deal we can get done? are we not going to see the stoppage of new tariffs but a repeal of some of the tariffs? when we got the details out on friday in really the only thing that the united states has done here is agreed not to put in place an increase in tariffs from 25% to 30%. and everything else that is discussed are things that we've been discussing at least for a

year with china. in some cases decades with china, with nothing yet to show for it? so we've been here before. the biggest question for the market is, can we get past the finish line on this mini deal? ultimately if that is all we can get, was the market overly excited about the chance that there could be something larger to occur? we have to start thinking about those issues are intractable. clearly beyond the 2020 election neil: what we do know increased tariffs that were supposed to kick in tomorrow will not be kicking in. the ones slated to take effect december 15th, they're still on, right? >> where are we today versus a week ago, a year ago, two years ago? even the agricultural purchases china is making we have to see whether or not those are going to exceed what they used to buy from us. so without those tariffs coming off, with the agricultural purchases not going above what

has been historical levels. you look out say, there is a couple of big pitfalls here. the issue of china's access to capital markets. government employee retirement funds, investing in chinese stocks, whether the government will block that. huawei, how we resolve the issue. each of the things lead-up to chile, they could absolutely derail these talks. what i fundamentally go back to, i don't think the trump administration really trusts the chinese delegation and vice versa. the trust here is not there, to really paper a large-scale deal. so many ways the best thing we could hope for is getting this mini deal, kind of on paper and i'm not quite sure even in that case if it gets enforced. neil: technically we don't even have that with the chinese saying they need more talks before they sign off on anything. they were the last ones i thought would be in that position. i pictured more united states in

that position. to your point, aways to go. ed mills, thank you very much. >> thank you. neil: ed touched on the 40 to 50 billion-dollars storm product purchases we don't know if that is staggered or over the course of one years. iowa department of agriculture secretary with us right now. secretary, what do you think? do you know anymore certainly than we do let's say we did on friday, the planned purchases are all going to be this year? >> well look, good to be back with you, neil. this is obviously not, this is not the full deal that we're all anxious to see but it is, you know, to the extent it's a partial deal or to the extent it leads to a comprehensive deal we'll take it as good news. these purchases that have been talked about, again, this is movement in the right direction.

does it rival what was, what we were selling to china back a couple years ago, no. but again, are we doing better than we were last year? are we moving in the right direction, especially with pork and soybeans. we'll take the purchases in 19 and hopefully into 20 as well. neil: i can definitely understand your frame of reference. more than the farmers are getting now. irony it is less than at our height before any of this started. which led some to question, those who love what the president is doing, those who are concerned about what he is doing whether he got the deal that he wanted. obviously this is just the beginning to your point. it's a phase one. it's a truce. it is is not a trade deal. in the end, obviously some disappointment. is that justified? >> well look, we've got to of course view the whole trade picture together. we have momentum out africa rea deal. we have the japan mini deal. i was in new york when the agreement was signed between the

prime minister and president again together. that is a huge agriculture market for us. i couldn't be a guest on your program without talking about usmca. we're anxious for that to pass. i think you have to look at this in a broader context. are we where we want to be with china? no. i like to put it this way. iowa farmers are not asking for much. they want a market for their products. we've got to deal with this, these bigger non-tariff barriers that the chinese constructed for many years. intellectual property theft and all of that. we need a comprehensive deal. we need to be doing these other deals alongside. neil: only thing that concerns me, sir, this was the low-hanging fruit part of it. we didn't get all the low-hanging fruit. then all the other stuff, right? >> well, again, i look at it, think, from iowa's perspective of course those food anding a deals. those sales are huge for us if that is how we start, get down the path, maybe japan and that

situation can be instructive for us. we didn't necessarily inspect to get the early harvest, right? , that early deal, while we still negotiate a larger, full, free, trade agreement. so i think as long as we can start to put things on paper. i know that's coming. it will take weeks to do that. neil: that's right. >> if we get things on paper, surely the momentum is a good sign. neil: better than where we were, bottom line to your point. secretary, thank you very much for taking time. >> you bet. neil: this is the sort of conundrum for the markets right now. why we're trading such a tight range. they don't know what to make of it, they think it is progress. indeed it is. we weren't looking certainly a week ago at the time. kind of progress that would warrant the market to run-up in a degree of anticipation. that is what they're fighting for. we're not sure. we'll keep an eye on that. we'll fight the democrats that gets really nasty ahead of the big debate tomorrow. where two most progressive

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contributor liz peek. let me get to you your take on the deal the president is touting a lot of your fellow investors aren't so smitten. are you? >> well, look, we had a big run-up in the market on friday in anticipation of the deal. the fact it is sort of waivering now is not too shocking there are a lot of details to be explored. there is no written agreement. what is very encouraging, both sides made concessions. both sides come together and both sides need a deal. this is where we hope to get to. are we shocked and dismayed that china is not willing to restructure its entire economic model? no. i think if they make some concessions along the lines of protecting intellectual property, allowing more firms into china without the 50, 50, deal. you know i think that is all extremely positive. by the way, for in terms of near term gains, obviously an increase in agricultural exports to china would be very good.

neil: cabot phillips, you talk to young people all the time, how does it move the needle for the president, lately if they follow news, impeachment stuff, and that will supersede everything? >> president trump need as victory especially with young people. it has been rough week for impeachment. especially young people not keeping up with all the news. if this is incremental victory you can point to, that is absolutely helpful. another thing positive for the president and administration in the trade war is all news coming out of china with the nba, the suppression of speech there, hong kong protest and videos. i think that opened up a lot of people's ice who don't pay attention to what china is, who they are, how they suppress human rights. now people see the moral argument. president trump can sate not only economic reason but moral reason. we're combating a morally wrong side. i do think that has been

hopeful. president said earlier in the year trade wars are easy to win, we're seeing over and over how that is not true. this could be incremental victory for him to have, paint this in moral terms, not just economic ones. neil: ethan, i heard radio silence on democrats on this deal, whether they like it or not. i don't know whether they like the deal. they're very much prone to talk about impeachment, that cabal to get subpoenas out, people speaking, fast, fast, but not a word on the whole trade thing. >> i have been talking about it, neil, i agree with you, let's be blunt, both democrats and republicans failed for 25 plus years in addressing the china issue. the problem is the way president trump approaching it, unilateral, not well-thought out fashion. not bringing allies into the deal. the european union, while we've been trying to fight this battle with china all on our own the european union went in and negotiated lower tariffs for their products into china which

undermines our efforts. china is suffering desperately right now with 50% of their swine dying due to a swine flu. i posted about that just the other day. we have a lot more leverage in this. neil: that is a very good point that you mentioned. swine flu might brought them to the table on the agricultural item. we don't know for sure. the irony got the tragedy for them to sign off on something. we don't know. it is still early. liz, looking at markets, looking at maybe it's a case of selling or not buying as much on the fact after running up on rumor, where are we going here? >> i think important thing, if there is signed deal what would be the best outcome from that? yes, agricultural exports would go up, hopefully. businesses would begin again to invest. that seems to me, that has been sort of cited as the biggest fallout from the china trade war is that you had a sort of

wonderful resurgence in business investment after trump was elected and lower tax rates and businesses felt confident enough. ceo confidence has taken a plunge over the last six months. people don't know what to do about supply chains. neil: will this change this, liz? >> i think it will if we get certainty. what they want is certainty. investors want it. ceo's want it. it is a bedrock of investment and progress. that is what this is all about, really. neil: cabot you and i talked about it before, different times, interviews, this notion when it comes to impeachment, not only president says it's a witch-hunt, very unfair, if you want to kiss the rally good-bye, the quickest way to do that is to impeach him. does that resonate with the people you talk, cabot? >> i think it doesn't necessarily because a lot of college students i talk to at leadership institute campus reform, young people as a whole, they're not looking at the

fundamentals of the economy. the rhetoric around impeachment willing a negative impact on president trump. also he will lose the bargaining chip. we'll look at economy. we don't want to lose this. i think he loses that if the economy suffers. we've seen how resilient the base has been throughout so much. as the base starts to feel impacts of the trade war. they are less sheltered than in the past, they pay more for goods. reality of a trade war with china is very different from the rhetoric of a trade war with china. something they all supported. this could be one of only things that make trump's base to start to waiver in their support of him, when their bottom lines are impacted. they have been up to this point. a trade war deal is not worked out soon, they will inevitably have to shoulder burden of that in the future. that could be only thing that makes them waiver. neil: other factors with bill clinton and his impeachment process. one thing that saved him, you had a good economy, you had a good market. even notoriously right-leaning

wall street, when push came to shove, they realized we made a lot of money under this guy, we don't want to lose that. it contributed to him surviving impeachment thing. that is my opinion. what do you think? >> i actually agree with you, neil. it is interesting. both liz and cabot are making a point here, we are in what is becoming a tough economy. while those tax cuts made people happy initially, the chickens are coming home to roost. we have massive deficits what is supposed to be a hot economy totally backwards from all of our history dating backwards from world war ii, where we don't have trillion dollar deficit when we have exploding hot economy. that will only last so long. it is starting to waiver now. if that happens if this recession actually hits before the november election, that will only hurt not just the american people but president trump's re-election chances. >> can i push back a little bit. we're not in a tough economy yet. the growth has slowed to be sure

but we saw last week a big spike in consumer sentiment. the consumer is driving economy and growth. nothing seemed to impact that, including impeachment. i want to point out manufacturing taken a bit of the hit. that is 10% of the economy. most of the economy is rolling along pretty darn well. we'll see from retail sales whether that continues. neil: revenues, but you're quite right to point out they spend revenues, then some. that is something bedeviled washington. thank you very, very much. we're not unaware what is happening right now in syria, particularly northern syria, where you have an odd situation building here, where the kurds might be seeking support with bashar al-assad with the help in the battle against turkey. it is getting weird, it is getting ugly, right now it is getting globally nasty.

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neil: they say that wars make strange bedfellows. they are trying a deal with assad and russia. as we say, that we plan to continue taking all troops out of syria in the coming weeks. we'll all be over with in two weeks. retired u.s. army colonel peter mansour says this leads to chaos. weird rolls are reversed enemies are in bed together, in a weird way, that confuses the whole process. where is this thing going. we'll see regeneration of isis. because all the fighters our allies captured in the deessential facilities will

escape as the kurds move forces to confront turkish troops on the border. the kurds who are a mountain people, saying kurds have no friends accept the mountains, they're seeking ally of some sort. meaning assad could have russian forces. nato ally turkey conducting operations. they may bump up against russian forces and for sure syrian forces in northern syria. you have 130 refugees from this conflict. maybe up to half a million heading to the eu to destablize our allies and american alliances are fracturing because we're seen as unreliable ally. neil: colonel, the president is of the view never a god time to leave the middle east.

this is europe's problem. let them settle it. from this chaos might come the discipline. what do you think? >> this wasn't an endless war. this was 1000 troops that were conducting stability and peacekeeping missions, joint patrols along the border not taking casualties. this was very much in the national interest. it was not a big money pit for us or a lot of casualtyies. we're a great power, we should be able to do things in our national interests. if he wanted to remove troops to cut a deal with the taliban and afghanistan. neil: let me ask you, colonel. treasury secretary steve mnuchin said within hours, that erdogan

in turkey promised a wider offensive. say we dropped a economic hammer on them when i look at numbers, we're their 7th ranked trading partners. i don't know how much impact we can have but your thoughts? we could have a lot of impact to sanction their banks. making sure they don't use u.s. financial system. first economic sanctions work slowly. it would not affect the fighting, second it would destablize nato. we could see turkey leave nato over this situation. that is certainly something that would change the strategic balance in europe. turkey at that point would probably seek accommodation with putin's russia. this is again, not necessarily great for our national security. neil: we must have factored that in, i assume we did. i'm not taking a leap of faith here, colonel? >> i would like to say this was

considered policy. it came after a single phone call between the president and president erdogan. president trumps admin wages was unprepared. i don't think this was considered policy at all. neil: when the president claims he is smarter than a lot of generals, what do you think. >> we've proven that he is very impulsive. many of us warned before the election, that he shoots from the hip. i think it is playing out in real time right now. neil: colonel, thank you very much. thank you for your incredible service to this country. way beyond politics. just calling it as you see it. that is a rarity. what is a rarity, relatively silent day on wall street. not plussed to the downside or the upside after a trade deal that was supposed to send stocks to the races. in anticipation of a trade truce, it did the trick.

afterwards, maybe not so much. ♪ ♪ this is the family who wanted to connect... to go where they could explore and experience adventure in unexpected places... ♪ who were inspired by different cultures ♪ and found that the past can create new memories... leading them to discover: we're woven together by the moments we share. for everywhere you go, expedia has everything you need, all in one place.

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he is not but that is her point. susan: that elizabeth warren is truly on facebook. neil: they have a little personal an animus. >> she purposely put a false ad on facebook over the weekend on saturday night, her campaign did. it was a big headline, breaking news, zuckerberg is endorsing donald trump. you look into the details of this ad, no, sorry. if trump lies, tries to lie in a tv ad most networks will refuse to air it. facebook just cashes trump's checks. no holding back there. facebook in response on twitter, the newsroom says, look, elizabeth warren, looks like broadcast stations across the country aired this ad nearly 1000 times as required by law. the fcc doesn't want broadcast companies censoring candidates speech. we agree better to let the voters decide.

now elizabeth warren of course has come back with facebook and mark zuckerberg in recent weeks. threatened to in that leaked video, zuckerberg said it would suck. neil: stating the obvious. of course it would suck. susan: it would go to the courts and we would probably win. elizabeth warren fighting back, yes, it would suck. you know what else sucks? the inequality in this country. neil: this is a family show. susan: you know. that's what they say. neil: where is this going this whole feud, whatever you want to call it? >> i don't know how far it will go because, obviously this is -- neil: depends how far she goes, right? >> depends how far she foes. sheep is not only one. she has come out with measures to actually do this. and she seems probably the most serious according to facebook as well but big tech, as you know,

wall street is it actually quite afraid of and warren candidacy. what if she gets nomination? you saw stocks falling when you heard bernie sanders had some heart issues, stocks were falling because that would give the advantage to elizabeth warren. we have every bond, every stock trade, big tech like amazon, facebook, google, should they be scared of possible -- neil: that is what the mod as are saying in the party if there any left. we'll see. >> we'll see indeed. i love this zuck versus warren. who do you think would win if they went toe-to-toe in the ring? neil: i don't know. he can get a lot of lawyers. that is one thing about being a multibillionaire. susan li, thank you very much. meantime, there is this, bernie sanders slamming elizabeth warren but not for those reasons, for this reason. take a look. >> elizabeth i think as you know said she is a capitalist to her

bones. i'm not. i believe i am the only candidate who stated the ruling class of this country, corporate elite, enough of your greed and with your corruption. neil: all right. apparently that is damning charge to call someone a capitalist at least in the democratic party. "daily caller" editorial director vince coglianese, if it works for getting far left votes. on that count it probably does. in a general election, susan and i were talking during the break, it is open debate. what do you make of this approach she is taking, on far more progressive than she is, i'm far more in tune what the progressive party is about, not kowtowing to the capitalist crowd. >> i'm so amazed in 2019, i realize bernie sanders has been around for a while calling himself a democratic socialist. always amazes me would make a argument i'm a socialist, i'm really a socialist and she is a capitalist. that somehow that is bad for

elizabeth warren, not bernie sanders. he trying to get to her left ward flank. he is not moving up in the polls. he has gone down a bit. elizabeth warren is leading "real clear politics" average for the democratic party lead. he thinks can by accusing her a capitalist, he can do that. she embraced that because she is scared about the socialism label. she is scared about the general election if she gets there. she doesn't want anybody thinking she is socialist. neil: a lot of people think that is fair or not, what she said about a wealth tax, wall street tax, a top tax on those, couple earning as little as $250,000 to shore up social security. that would be a dramatic run to the middle to sort of reframe that. what he is saying though, to win over the base and her traditional supporters is be careful of that. that is exactly what she is going to do. i'm not. what do you think? >> he accusing her of being

deceitful. that is in her campaign. claims of native-american ancestry which the president hit repeatedly. fundamental theme, that she is somebody laden with deceit. her explanation of "medicare for all" and public option has changed repeatedly. she even stands on the debate stage i'm with bernie on "medicare for all." that is not the only thing. think about socialism, controlling means of production. this is what elizabeth warren advocates now. she wants to see government control of corporations broadly in terms of just being involved in the rules how they are structure. she wants to more employees have seat at bored by government mandate. this is socialism. whatever she flames -- frames in the general election, president trump will beat her over the head with that label. that is how his campaign sees her. neil: if she is the nominee, as

president hopes times continue to be in. herbert hoover stepped into office and all of sudden stock market crash and a big government democrat emerges, of fdr. things can happen to turn upside down the political consensus. >> elizabeth warren has predicted a recession is coming. she hasn't given us a date. would be nice to do that. that is economist trick. that it is coming. yeah, it works oh, wow, you're amazing. >> i remember from her better hoover covering that race. i read about it. always good seeing you, my friend. vince on all of that. the dow up about 22 points. losses piling up for general motors in this on going strike entering its fifth week here. you won't believe what the dividing point is. it has very little to do with health benefit. it has virtually nothing to do with overtime pay. what it does have something to

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for the amazing price on your screen. neil: if you really want to get a charge out of uaw strikers mention that gm is going to electric. the fact that would require fewer workers, that is the direction which gm eventually wants to go, that is bone of contention between the company and striking workers. they have had their pay upped by the union, $275 a week. that is not enough necessarily to protect workers in the face of what could be a record walkout. grady trimble has been following all of the crosscurrents as we head into week five. hey, grady. >> neil, 275 a week that is still about $1000 less than workers are used to getting when working in the assembly plants and parts distribution centers around the country. we're about a month into this strike. if you think about it, the bills

are really piling up for the workers as they would be anybody in a month's time. they have car payments. they have mortgages or rents to pay, car insurance. they're trying to figure out how to get buy on that strike pay. even though it was upped but just by a little bit. who is losing more as the strike continues on the 29th day? just looking at numbers, general motors is. they have lost more than $1 billion according to one analyst, the workers on the other hand, about half that. they have given up $624 million in wages. but you know, a dollar means a lot more to worker than it does to a multibillion-dollar company. on top of that, moody's released a report last week saying this. a substantial portion of these earnings could be recouped by general motors if the strike doesn't extend much beyond october. so that indicates that general motors could hold on a little bit longer, and get all the money they have lost because of the strike back. a lot at stake here for these workers and for the company as

they look to move forward with cars of the future, like you said, electric. neil? neil: grady trimble in illinois following all of that meantime, do your kids play this "fortnite" game? it went black, but maybe your kid went nuts. >> what's up [bleep]. [bleep] come on,. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance,

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♪. neil: bye-bye, kids.

once they saw that, i'm telling you there was a "fortnite" freakout. the game's latest season ending with a black hole. now players are in the dark, quite literally the because the game has not revamped up to the new season. folks wondering if there is a new season. has "fortnite" finally said good knight a lot of drama people can't relate to. if you're in the world of gaming that is all anyone is talking about. a fox host says this market plan could lead to more users signing up. you're saying there is a strategy maybe on the part of "fortnite" and the makers to do this, right? >> absolutely, neil. i think this was really brilliant strategy because it creates this source of scarcity. this was a huge publicity stunt. for people who don't know, basically by the end of season 10, the entire map imploded into a black hole and sucked all of the players along with it and if you were to look at epic's game

store and their twitch, everything else it has been replaced with black hole. it's a great opinion -- publicity stunt. now i see them on cnn and hollywood reporter and talking about it on television so they were able to turn heads. neil: you know this stuff so better than i. i do know the base of "fortnite" players not as big as it was years back, still very substantial, you don't want to screw with that, do you? >> well i guess the darker edge of that, people who are playing a lot of "fortnite" are addicted, if they don't play the game another couple days they will still want to keep playing the game. neil: their only alternative is talking to their families, they do not want to do that? >> absolutely. why do you want to talk to your families and hang out with your cool friends online and shoot them up, you know what i mean?

marketing strategy. if you look revenue game has been making the previous year it has gone down 38% to 52%. they definitely want more eyes on the game. neil: wow. a lot of people are back to "minecraft," which i found amazing when my boys were little. that was a big draw. that is the new draw. everything old again is new again. i don't know how true that is. "fortnite" had incredible lock on kids attention, not all kids but especially teenage boys, i'm wondering if that is loosening a bit no matter what marketing ploy they're using right now? >> i would say probably not if you look at historical precedent. if it turns out, "fortnite" has been losing twitch viewership as well.

the most most viewed game, is league of legend. that is ancient. that is 15 years old. "fortnite" will be there in the foreseeable future, it is maturing out, and kind of re knew in the years ahead will probably stablize. neil: i'm wondering effort to make the game more appealing to more players, by taking away things you can purchase separately to give you more of an edge, whatever, it boomeranged on "fortnite" devotees, hey, it isn't as special. it is not as alluring. what do you make of that? >> sure, some of the complaints we've seen within the video, within the player base, it actually has more to do with the season specifically. because they introduced a new vehicle called a battle mack. a lot of the professional players were griping about how it was throwing off the balance

in the game. when it comes down to microtransactions, customer loyalty for people consistently purchasing those transactions is 50%. it has been holding steady. the other thing i would say, not like this kind of micro transaction that goes on within "fortnite." not something necessarily you criticize the "fortnite" for. that is part of the video game industry. there are some games, they become so competitive, everything is leaning towards microtransactions. videogames is a live, continuous living service. neil: i will use this as opportunity to reintroduce myself to my kids. say, hi, this is dad. how are you. >> you got about two or three days, neil. make the most out of it. neil: thank you very much. once again, kids, if you're watching. hi, this is dad. more afteree this.

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we'll do what we need to do to get this concluded. people are not afraid of travel. our expectation is we will meet with the vice premier in chile before the presidents meet to make sure there are no final issues. if we need to have more in-person meetings to get this done, obviously we'll do that. neil: all right. that man is a ratings juggernaut. treasury secretary of the united states, steve mnuchin, very confident that phase one as they are calling it will be signed, sealed and delivered. an economist coming up on if that perception of the deal is enough to keep the bull market booming. fascinating theory on how the narratives build and shape economies and markets. that's later in the hour. first to "wall street journal" editorial page writer jillian melchior, john lonski and last but not least, fox news

contributor, kat, one of the things that's come up in these trade reassessments, whether we had a deal or not, it was supposed to be substantive on friday, now we are hearing from no less than the chinese, we haven't signed off on it, we want to continue discussing before we do. >> it's so interesting, looking at the differences in the way the president is talking about it versus how the chinese are talking about it. if you listen to trump, it is not just a deal, it is quote, the greatest and best deal ever. the chinese aren't using the word deal at all. they are using words like progress and this is obviously a good thing that there is that progress. it's just again, i think the truth is somewhere in the middle. people on the one side are saying this is nothing, nothing at all. other side saying greatest deal, best deal ever. it's progress, it's moving toward perhaps a deal, it's something people should be happy about regardless of what side you're on. neil: all right, but it isn't what maybe it was trumped up to be, no pun intended, on friday, right? what i'm wondering, john lonski,

we haven't had a chance to look at the deal, tentative as it might be, it's the same one china is saying is not a done deal. what do you think? >> well, i think that china has every reason to try to come up with some sort of resolution to this problem. after all, the chinese economy is hurting more than the u.s. economy is, because of the trade dispute. we had very bad numbers from china on exports and china needs to grow exports. neil: wouldn't that be a killer, sign on to something with them and they don't have the economic or financial wherewithal to follow through. >> they will find the financial wherewithal, that's for sure. remember, this is a centrally planned economy and in a centrally planned economy, the central bank can make as much money available to whomever that bank wants money to get to. that shouldn't really be a problem for them. maybe it's more of a problem of pride. of course, one of the problems we've had with china is unlike the united states, there are no

elections coming up in china that would put a lot of their high-ranking officials under pressure to come up with a deal, get this matter out of the way. neil: it's a start. even the president was saying, you know, there will be followups and the one thing we know that even the tariffs that are waiting for at least tomorrow, the ones planned for december 15th are still on. what do you make of this? >> i want to get back to this earlier point about chinese government not being elected. i do think they are still under political pressure, possibly more political pressure than trump, because their legitimacy lies not on the will of the people, it's economic prosperity all the way. that's the only thing their leaders can point to, here's why you're sticking with us. i do think they are under pressure. i think the trump administration is also under some political pressure to do this. we are seeing -- neil: who needs it more, though? >> i think both of them need it pretty significantly. neil: but if we knew ahead of time we were going to do a partial deal, we could have done this right at the beginning, right? >> right. absolutely.

i think the president realizes this is a partial deal. i think that saying things like greatest and best deal ever is just kind of how he talks. i don't think he really talks in nuances whatsoever. neil: neither does lonski. >> neither do i. no, i do, actually. people who are kind of blaming this solely on the president, i think that that's also really disingenuous because this is a systemic problem. this is a problem that's years and years and years in the making. it's not going to be something that anyone can solve overnight. neil: by the way, he's tackling things that others did not. it might be the slow boat literally to china plan, but you are getting there, right? >> i do think one thing we need to pay really close attention to is the enforcement mechanisms here because we have seen time and time again, china makes these agreements that are grandiose, then go back on their word. we are seeing that play out now in hong kong, where they are saying the joint treaty they have, joint declaration with the british no longer counts, is no longer legally binding. so i think the trump administration needs to -- neil: trump has done that, too.

right? it's very fashionable to turn your back on agreements, right? >> sure, but they are international agreements at the end of the day. i think if you are dealing with a partner that has consistently acted in bad faith on international agreements, that's something to pay attention to. neil: on that point, then, john, one of the things a lot of farmers were getting excited about is the promise for the chinese to buy $40 billion or $50 billion worth of agricultural items. we don't know over what time frame. we do know it would not return us to the levels we were at before all of this started. what do you make of that? >> it's better than the current situation. neil: absolutely. >> it improves on that. let me say this much. suppose we resolve these matters with china. does that mean the u.s. economy is going to be off to the races, that we will get 3% to 4% growth? hardly. the problems facing the u.s. economy in terms of long-term growth extend well beyond this

dispute or unfair trade practices, intellectual property theft with china. you've got to be kidding yourself if you think a resolution of this particular issue is going to lead to a significant increase in u.s. prosperity. neil: i also wonder, too, the hope we have that it's going to change a lot of ceos and chief financial officers' spending plans based on removing the uncertainty of a trade war. that's a bit premature. >> it absolutely is. i think the president, the way he talks kind of make people think that way. listen, no one tackled this, i'm doing this, we're killing china. people take that at face value but if you actually look at the numbers, that's not something we can expect. if you actually look at the facts of the situation rather than the rhetoric and the attitude and the mood, it's a good thing but it's somewhere in the middle. >> reality is the chinese school system is turning out better students than the united states is, perhaps in all likelihood --

>> we are better square dancer, though. >> yeah, that's right. what did we, rank 15th globally in mathematical and verbal skills? come on. we have a long ways to go. neil: all right. when i look at this, i think all right, it's a start. i think all to your point, it is a start. i want to know what is next because i want to flesh out the details on those agricultural purchases, then some of the thornier issues you touched on that i didn't know can be done at the end of this president's first term, if there's even another term, because those are the ones that china doesn't want to relinquish. >> yeah. i think they have acted consistently with bad faith on intellectual property, on outright theft. many of these things, it's how china does business. neil: we're okay with that as a country, to say nothing of what the administration is trying to do, a lot of u.s. companies would sell their soul to be exposed to that market.

talking anywhere from the nba -- [ speaking simultaneously ] >> i think what they've done is completely grotesque. it's a problem any american president has to deal with, china trying to call the shots on business. but again, i think we need to look at how we come at this from a position of strength. unfortunately, the trump administration's other trade policies, taking a trade war with our allies, has limited our ability to encircle china, to use a sort of trade balance of power to go after its worst practices. it can't just be the u.s. taking on china alone. we need an international coalition that is unwilling to put up with that. >> that's a really great point. absolutely. because of the way he's turned off some of our allies, we don't have -- america first sometimes, if you really are thinking america first, you have to think in the long term and in the long term, if you want that, you do have to have some buddies. >> by the way, this is a great opportunity for us to build on these alliances. usually every country is looking out for themselves. this is one area in which we all actually share the same interest in checking china's bad

behavior. neil: they too feel like they are hosed by the chinese, right? they aren't going to sing the president's praises but they too feel on this, we hope you succeed. >> a lot of their businesses are pretty willing to take advantage of the opportunity where u.s. companies are being crowded out of the marketplace. neil: were you surprised to the degree at which the chinese were kind of cooling the thunderous applause? >> well, i think it's perhaps, again, china's trying to save face politically, okay. they don't want to look as though they are caving in to the united states. so you would have to expect this type of reaction on the part -- neil: i would have expected the other way around. >> would have applauded it, said trump is great -- neil: no, no. i would think we would be the ones. we're not quite sure yet. >> especially with trump saying we don't know, you know, they need a deal way more than we need a deal. that's typical rhetoric. neil: is that your trump impression? >> no, it's not. my trump impression, that's only for --

neil: select audience. >> when you are talking about taking the multilateral approach we are back with the trans-pacific partnership type of approach. we had that already. we walked away from it. >> big strategic mistake, i think. neil: still early in the game. meantime, hunter biden addressing this issue of conflicts of interest by pulling himself out of the china equation. is that enough? or by going ahead and acquiescing on that, he becomes a target and his father an even bigger one? after this. imagine traveling hassle-free with your golf clubs.

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neil: an impeachment inquiry leading to gridlock, both sides stuck to their positions, not getting anything else done. chad pergram follows this and what remains of an agenda in congress.

what do we have? reporter: fiona hill, the president's top adviser on russia, is behind closed doors right now. she's engaged in a transcribed interview with members of congress. we are expecting gordon sondland to come to capitol hill on thursday. he's going to talk about this question of a quid pro quo and whether or not he actually believed what the president told him. members of congress have been gone for about two and a half weeks, everybody comes back to capitol hill tomorrow, and in terms of the legislative agenda, they are going to have to look at trying to get the usmca across the finish line, negotiations have been going on all stage. that will probably ramp up in coming days. we think they will try to tackle that this quarter. they also have to fund the government by the 21st of november. now, just in the past 40 minutes, house speaker nancy pelosi spoke with lindsey graham, the republican senator from south carolina. the other big issue here, sometime this week or next, we are going to have resolutions on both the house and senate floors condemning the president's actions on syria and turkey. there's a lot of bipartisan support for that and there's a lot of people on capitol hill

who wondered if that could drift over into impeachment. in other words, people start to say we don't support the president's issue or the way he's approached syria, maybe that would start to erode some of his support when it comes to impeachment. meantime, downstairs at the house intelligence committee, republicans are still carping about the process. listen to republican new york representative lee zeldin. >> what should happen here is that there should be a vote. if the house democrats want to pursue impeachment, they should put their money where their mouth is and have a vote. reporter: this is the reason this is important, because a lot of democrats now think that they could actually have that vote to formalize the impeachment inquiry and that could boomerang on republicans and the administration. the administration has said it will not cooperate with this probe unless democrats formalize it and there are some democrats on capitol hill who think that might be a good idea. back to you. neil: thank you very, very much, chad pergram on capitol hill. we are also receiving word hunter biden has resigned his

position on a chinese firm's board. he hasn't totally severed his ties with that country, but it is a step, we are told, from the biden family in that direction. in other words, so it's not to be an embarrassment to his father should his father ultimately prove to be the democratic nominee, even leading up to that process. let's get the read on all these back and forths and where this whole drama around the bidens puts the impeachment battle because this is a subset to it. to republicans this will be the main battle royale, part of it. jillian, john, kat back with us. one of the things that come up, while the impeachment continues and the process continues, joe biden and this relationship and his son and the ukraine and other business relationships has helped republicans sort of counter all the pressure on the president. you agree? >> you can't talk about what happened in ukraine without talking about some of biden's difficulties. i think americans are really sensitive and really frustrated

by the idea that someone's son would use his father's political power, political heft, to profit. even if laws weren't broken i think there's a lot of sensitivity toward that kind of soft appearance of corruption there. i think it's going to be something that continues to haunt the democratic party. i also think it's going to really benefit the further left candidates like brn iebernie sa elizabeth warren. unfortunately for joe biden, hunter distancing himself at this point reads a lot like an admission of guilt. neil: you have to wonder ahead of the debate tomorrow night, whether the other democrats will raise it. rallying around biden, saying this is unfair, the president's the problem, not joe, but it's out there. >> it's just so weird, how can there not be problems on both sides. like there's this choice between having to love what the bidens did or love what president trump did and i'm just like what if you don't love anything. a resignation itself never --

doesn't really mean anything. it's all about the timing of the resignation. the timing of this resignation is very very significant. it's happening only as president trump and republicans are sort of hitting this as being the sort of shady situation. as jillian mentioned, if he was completely above the board on everything, i don't see why he would have resigned. it just wouldn't make sense. maybe people on the left could say it's just a distraction, we want to get it out of the way and i read a lot of left-leaning news sources this morning that said look, there's no evidence that he broke a law, there's no evidence he broke a law and that's true, that's absolutely true. however, this doesn't mean that it looks good, especially resigning amid these hits going on constantly. neil: without getting in the weeds, the one thing that comes up is it's not very good for joe biden as someone who might be tainted, whether there is something to it or not, because -- >> optics. neil: if you are the party, you are looking for someone who doesn't have any kind of baggage

like that. >> we sort of have funny rules here with federal government. in the private sector, you work for a multinational corporation, and if you go ahead and you go to a foreign government and try to get that customer or government to get a relative of yours a job, for the most part, that's grounds for instant dismissal from that corporation. okay? you can't do that. you have to be very -- remember these banks got into trouble, they were hiring sons and daughters of foreign leaders because they thought that was against the foreign corrupt practices act, so this type of activity, you cannot do that in the private sector. but for some reason, you can do it in washington. neil: it's raised the question. i think whether it's fair or not, i agree with your point that there might be nothing to it, nothing untoward or illegal, but if you don't want that, then you go to someone other than joe biden. >> yeah. absolutely. i think we are looking at it, hunter biden's record, his

expertise, his track record and a lot of american people are saying wait a second, with hunter biden's unprecedented genius getting him $50,000 a month, or was it his family connections. fair question to ask. i think i know what most americans would conclude. neil: -- everything they targeted the president, they throw up their arms and say it's a wash. >> absolutely. i think there's something to it wasn't worth the fight but i also think there's something to if everything was completely above the board, completely perfect, then why would you resign? i'm asking the question, i'm not saying i have the answer to that. neil: by doing that -- >> you almost create more issues. that's what i think. absolutely. >> we certainly think the trump administration set the precedent of if you didn't do anything wrong, don't apologize for it. neil: has ehe ever apologized? all right. we will take a quick break. guys, in the meantime, with the dow up all of 1.5 points, turkey

becomes the issue up close and personal, getting nasty and nastier. but what's odd is the strange bedfellows this is making, and all as a result of a decision the president, his critics say didn't think through. he's thinking about it now. the ramifications for turkey he says is ripe for maybe economic sanctions. will that be enough? after this. [ orchestral music playing ] mom you've got to get yourself a new car. i wish i could save faster. you're making good choices. you'll get there. ♪ were you going to tell me about this? i know i can't afford to go. i still have this car so you can afford to go. i am so proud of you. thanks. principal. we can help you plan for that. start today at principal.com. i wanted more that's why i've got the power of 1 2 3 medicines with trelegy. the only fda-approved 3-in-1 copd treatment.

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neil: all right. kurdish forces cutting a deal with bashar al assad right now, the regime to fight these turkish forces and ultimate irony here. fox news correspondent steve harrigan is in northeastern engineer with t syria with the latest. reporter: dramatic changes on the battlefield in the past 24 hours. the kurds, who have complained that america stabbed them in the back, have quickly found a new ally, syrian leader bashar al assad. they have joined now with syrian

government forces so what started out as what turkey called an anti-terror operation less than a week ago is now looking very much like a possible war between two countries, turkey and nato member on one side, and syria backed by russia on the other. so some potential for a great deal more violence. the syrian government forces have already reached the battlefield where many locals here in syria say they are a welcome sight. >> translator: thank god for the return of the army. thank god for the return of the syrian arab army. reporter: the fighting on the ground has been intense and brutal. a lot of accusations of atrocities, especially against turkish-backed militias. they are accused of executing kurdish fighters on the battlefield. they are accused of executing a kurdish female political leader and also of bombing a convoy that contained a number of armed men as well as civilians and journalists, that convoy bombing right near the front lines

killed nine. u.s. forces have pulled back from the north. they will be out of country entirely within weeks and a lot of people, civilians are trying to get out any way they can. that number of people on the move trying to flee the fighting now, more than 130,000. back to you. neil: steve, be safe, my friend. by the way, the treasury secretary steve mnuchin already indicated earlier today that it is not too late to impose some sanctions on turkey. he didn't specify what they might be, how serious or severe they might be, but all of this only hours after president erdogan had said that a wider offensive is coming. more on that, also more on the preparation for the big democratic debate tomorrow. a dozen invited. we are following the money. who's got that momentum? after this.

neil: all right. the mystery is over. ahead of the debate, a debate she threatened she might not attend, tulsi gabbard will indeed be taking to the stage. it could be one of the last chances candidates like her have a chance to gain momentum. back with us on what's at stake for these candidates, and the amount of money they're raising, how one dovetails off the other, is our panel. jillian, all eyes are on i guess who has the clever line or the clever put-down. each debate provides an opportunity for somebody to

emerge doing that. i don't know in the scheme of things whether that raises money or gets you support. what do you look for? >> a couple of things. elizabeth warren's ability to stay on top of this debate. i think everybody is going to be paying attention to whether bernie sanders is able to have the energy after his health scare. i think we will be looking at sort of biden/warren face-off, whether those two, also whether kamala harris is able to regain momentum. within that, the broader question is how low are these candidates willing to go, are they going to take aggressive shots against each other or stick to this unity thing they have going, we are all against trump. >> the knee-jerk read you get from folks is they aren't going after bernie sanders, what he's been through. that might change. but they might go after elizabeth warren. they might just see what happens with joe biden and whether there's anything sticking on these charges. what do you think? >> yeah, absolutely. i think people will be going after elizabeth warren, because she's gaining so much momentum

both in terms of fund-raising and just in terms of news coverage, popularity in the polls and that sort of thing. bernie has already started going after her, calling her a capitalist recently which is an insult. i take it as a compliment but he meant it as an insult. i think going after biden perhaps, but it seems like elizabeth warren is the one to take down right now. not joe biden. a and you brought up kamala harris. she needs to have another great moment. andrew yang is -- has out-fund raised her in the third quarter. when things started, people were saying she might have frontrunner potential. when things started for him, people were saying who. neil: tulsi gabbard was on again, off again going into this debate, she took kamala harris down talking about her prosecutor days in california. we don't know. but when you hear and look at these candidates, we are told elizabeth warren has momentum, raising record sums in small

denominations, on the capitalist thing she's said she is pro-capitalism but fair capitalism. how does she dance that? >> i don't know. there's a lot of people on wall street that are not very happy with the elizabeth warren candidacy. >> can't imagine why. >> wealth tax, they are claiming that if she gets the nomination, becomes president, the stock market's going to crash. neil: there are other candidates who say, you know, they are all in agreement hiking taxes on the wall street types, and even a version of a wealth or wall street tax might not be as severe but it's not unique to her. >> where's the big money going to come from? other small donors are lending support to elizabeth warren. where do the major donors place their money once the democratic candidate -- neil: it's interesting, beto o'rourke is still raising a great deal of money. mayor pete, still a great deal of money. i'm wondering, not that there's a direct correlation between that and how they are faring in the polls but it is remarkable

at this stage, they both still are. >> absolutely. i'm surprised that beto o'rourke hasn't raised more. he was such a star and now he's kind of just eh. he makes headlines a lot but in terms of the polls, it doesn't really seem to be reflected. he's raising money, making headlines. it's not translating into support in the polls. i think that what is interesting is that in fund-raising, bernie and warren are doing so well, better than everyone else by far, and i will have discussions whether on tv or elsewhere with democrats all the time who insist that the uber-progressives are just a small segment of the democratic party, they don't represent the party, the party is very moderate, and while i think the more people in the party at least, you know, in congress and actual elected positions might be more moderate, look at the support that the uber progressives get from donors, from small donors. neil: you're right. >> follow the money. you can't look at these numbers and tell me this is not

representative of where the party's going. >> i actually had to laugh today, calling elizabeth warren a capitalist is an insult. i think this is indicative of how far left the party has gotten. i'm thinking at the obama years when socialist was an insult. now capitalist is the insult. i think that's a huge shift left. by the way, people watching the debate tomorrow should be looking at which candidates are actually honest about what that means for the american people. we can talk about taxing wall street. we can talk about taxing billionaires. but if you look at the cost of the things that they're proposing, the actual policies that are going to affect people's lives, they are going to require a middle class tax hike and they are certainly going to have repercussions if you are talk -- neil: even bernie sanders isn't honest about that. >> elizabeth warren hasn't really talked about it. tax the 1%, tax the 1% and i don't know if i'm the only person whose brain goes there, you think 1%, there's 1% because there's not that many of them. there's not all these rich people we can tax. the 1% is the 1%. it's definitely going to impact

the middle class. i give bernie credit for being honest. neil: he said you will get more money back. that's what his argument is. >> what about things like the carbon tax? that's maybe a sensible idea, if you are worried about climate change, go ahead with that. have something maybe called the health tax of some sort to help pay for health care. i'm going to tell you, you want free health care, you will eventually be reminded of the old adage you get what you pay for. if you pay nothing for it, you will see quite a deterioration of the quality of health care. neil: all right. i don't know where you are coming from. >> if you add the carbon tax, you would go ahead and lower the taxes of americans. >> many of these green things, let's keep in mind they will drive up energy prices. that hits poor americans the hardest. neil: all right. that's an open debate. we will see tomorrow. what were you going to say? >> you have to consume less fossil fuels if you want to do something about climate change.

there's no escaping that. there's going to be some reduction in standard of living. neil: look at the time. all right. guys, thank you all very, very much. my thanks to the panel. great panel, at that. the phase one trade deal that is in doubt because maybe the phase one thing itself doesn't even get off the runway. after this.

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budget? call humana now at the number on your screen for this free guide. it's just one of the ways that humana is making healthcare simpler. and when you call, a knowledgeable licensed agent-producer can answer any questions you have, and help you chose the plan that's right for you. the call is free and there's no obligation. you know medicare won't cover all your medical costs, so call now! and see why a medicare supplement plan from a company like humana, just might be the answer. neil: all right. we are down a little bit, more than 13 points right now, so maybe this might be a case of selling on the fact or just not buying as much on the fact after the rumor. let's go to "making money" host charles payne. what's happening here? charles: i think wall street's kind of put it in pause. the good news is no escalation while they try to figure all this out. president trump said on friday it's going to take four or five

weeks to paper the deal. we saw where the markets rallied up to 500 points, the dow, and gave up 200 of that. i think listen, obviously there's got to be more clarity right now. we are also on the cusp of earnings season. we will handicap some of those because that's another thing that obviously should be able to move these markets, particularly since there's so much negativity. wall street is looking for a big decline from a year ago, which was one of the best quarters in history. neil: you know, i wonder, too, charles, i know and you always remind me the markets abhor uncertainty. we don't have a certain trade deal. we have the hope of one. so we haven't removed that. especially maybe when things kind of ignited over the weekend with the chinese saying not a done deal, we want more talks before we can sign off on this thing. i thought that would be us saying that, not the chinese. but what do you make of that? charles: a couple hours ago when we were down 100, the editor of the "global times" which many people consider him to be the mouthpiece for beijing, more or less said this is the way china does things, initially, he

thinks they like where we're headed right now so i think the idea is that it's not a deal, right. i really, really emphasized that on friday and i wish president trump wouldn't describe it as a deal as much as an arrangement, an agreement, rather, to move forward, an agreement that makes a deal easier to attain compared to where we were in may, when this whole thing went off the rails. neil: you're right to point out that it's a big improvement over where we were and it's a step in the direction. having said that, though, i know i sound like a wet blanket here, but while we removed the targets that were going into effect tomorrow, we haven't removed the ones that are presently set to go into effect in mid-december. does that concern you? does that worry you? charles: it does worry me, not enough to make adjustments, but it certainly is something that makes it harder. it makes anyone investing in the market harder, it makes anyone investing in business harder. it just makes things harder. my gut, i really don't believe those are going to go on,

particularly because, you know, i think we'll have more progress between now and then. i think now, though, all eyes go back to this apec meeting in chile, where perhaps both presidents will meet and i would suspect it will be a meeting between the principals again prior to that, probably in beijing. neil: so if you were a ceo, charles, or a chief financial officer, and you have been holding back on capital spending or hiring more people, would anything that transpired on friday change your mind? charles: to a degree. i think the biggest mistake a business can make, though, is having consumers who are this excited, this enriched, this confident, go out to buy a product and it's not there. you know, i go back to two weeks ago with the leading rv maker in this country, said their inventories were at a two-year low. if someone shows up to buy a $100,000rv and you don't have it on the lot, you are in trouble.

you cannot get that back. so it's a delicate dance they are doing. r & d, that kind of stuff, investing for your business, that is supposed to take you beyond this trade stuff so that you can have a competitive product somewhere in the future. so any business that's doing that, they've got to be very careful. i'm going to do a piece this week, you know, i think some people will think that maybe these businesses are going on strike at the wrong time. neil: we look forward to it, my friend, about 15 minutes, my buddy charles payne will take you through that. help you make some money while he's at it. meanwhile, the president has been arguing, say what you will of this trade deal, the market run-up, the strong economy, you impeach him, you might as well impeach that. it's a very popular narrative that others on the street espouse. a guy who has written extensively about the power of such narratives and there have been many throughout history, bob shiller, coming up. there's a power in listening;

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neil: president trump is warning that impeaching him could impeach this rally, this strong market, the whole job gains, go ahead and do that, kiss all that good-bye. yale professor and narrative economics author, robert shil r shiller, is here. he looks at the stories that go viral and drive economic events but does it in a way where a lot of the resources he uses are everyday recollections at the time, whether they go back many, many years from philosophers to those who suffered during the great depression and how that animated the moment and the economy. robert shiller, the man who predicted the dot-com bubble, the real estate housing crisis, to listen to him attentively. good to see you. >> pleasure. neil: it's interesting because you are trying to step back and

say times create narratives, i don't know whether narratives create the times, but that economists can't get a handle on that. right? >> most of them. yes. the problem is that narratives are hard to measure. an economic narrative is one that affects economic behavior, and you know, who can do that precisely. it involves human judgment, a conflict between the sciences and the humanities. i think we need a little bit more humanities in our economic analysis. neil: what are fellow economists telling you? you are ruining it for us? >> old style economists. i'm grabbing the younger generation that's coming up. they will be more down-to-earth. you can see it already in economic circles. neil: so when you were talking about this book, i will get at some of the details, we always focus on consumer sentiment numbers, ceo, cfo, sentiment

numbers, that their thoughts influence their purchasing plans, influence the economy. do you buy that? >> i think it's an interesting line of research begun, i would date it back to the 1930s with george gallup, then later in michigan, the consumer sentiment index. it's been around for half a century. what they do is they ask the same questions three times so they don't update what are really new narratives which are narratives are inventions and it's useful to look at consumer confidence but it's not the whole story. neil: so when you -- when people take a look at the uncertainty around scoring a deal with china, for example, going beyond your book, and that, you know, ceos, cfos, were withholding capital spending plans based on the progress of those talks, do you buy that? that a narrative develops around the importance of our having an

agreement with china that maybe overweights china and our trade relationship? >> well, yeah, i mean, we live in a world of stories and china is a wonderful story. it's an exotic country. it's a country that made huge transitions from communism to socialism, changes like that. we probably overweight china and we probably overweight the current developments a little bit, because their intentions right now, we are telling stories about them right now, you know, ten years ago people didn't even know who xi jinping was. now he's king of the, well, not the whole world. neil: the story is overplayed. in other words, when you look at it, yeah, it's a factor on the economic recovery scene, but it's not as important or how would you describe it? >> well, the trade war with china is important, but it's a

small percentage of gdp. it may stand in for a broader sense of uncertainty, uncertainty about who knows what, the price level, as we see conflicts between powell and trump developing. so it can lead to a general feeling, an emotion of uncertainty. it hasn't done that yet. maybe among business people but not among the general public. neil: but the president has, right? he's added uncertainty because he's unpredictable. i don't know if that's a good or bad thing but the narrative you get from the rest of the world is that he's confusing the heck out of us. >> that is a theme in some new economic research. baker, boone and davis, go to their website and they have a policy uncertainty index. this is my line that i'm advocating. we will have more of this kind of research in the future. but it goes back to the great depression. roosevelt was unpredictable. lots of businessmen back then said they were withholding their

plans because they don't know what's coming next. neil: but -- >> the same thing happened in the 1890s. neil: when you are in the middle of something dire, you have seen it disproportionately in the great depression and in the '30s and you talk about the stories that emerged at the time of people who were suffering through that and you wrote mostly the fundamental change was an atmosphere of collective sympathy, like the feeling in the wake of a shared tragedy. this atmosphere explained people's willingness to work for contingent fee or to buy apples on a street corner even when they were not in the mood. >> right. neil: what did you mean by that? >> this was a narrative and a social movement. it started in new york in the early 1930s, that instead of begging, beggars would sell apples and the funny thing is people were sympathetic to that. because the idea had just emerged that it's not their

fault. the classic response going back 100 years before that was professional beggars are out there. they used that term in 1850s. professional beggars, trying to leach off you, pretending to be poor. now they really felt like it could happen to me, too. it's something wrong with the economy. some technical problem. neil: those stories then would prompt a change in policy? herbert hoover at the time was a hands-off, don't have the government intervene, but all of a sudden, when people came to the view that this was something beyond their control or their fault, they were more open for more active government, right? >> yeah, but at the same time, it worsened the depression because people didn't want to show off, you know, your next door neighbor, right next door, i'm talking loosely, he was unemployed and you could tell he

was ashamed of himself and the children are hungry and they come over asking for food. are you going to buy a new car for yourself and park it in the driveway in front of them? i think not, because you can always wait another year or two or five years with the old car. neil: yeah, but it wasn't too long ago you were on the show and we talked about conspicuous consumption espoused by then candidate trump, to be rich and have all this stuff, trump meat and all this other stuff, and that was part of his lure. not exclusively. there were other factors. i don't minimize that. but is that going to be an issue now, or do people recoil if it's too excessive? >> well, trump is a motivational speaker before a president. our first motivational speaker president and author of a book or co-author of many books. he does tell you that people are afraid to boast. he's not afraid to boast and

he's telling you exactly that. that maybe people would be a little annoyed with you, but hey, you will get your message out and that's what you need for success. neil: he's very successful getting his message out. >> he's amazingly successful. neil: this is departing from your book and your insights that have won numerous awards. do you think that that strategy that got him elected, that personality, that never in doubt, will win him the white house again? >> it certainly could. in fact, if we don't have a recession, we are on a tipping point now. i give it a 50% chance. neil: do you really? >> in 2020. yeah. there will be another recession -- neil: we haven't outlawed that but for housing, how is it looking? >> housing prices are still going up and have started to fade but it reminds me uncomfortably of 2005, when we were in the same circumstance. home prices were going up and the talk was changing.

i don't see that talk is as focused on real estate as it was in 2002005. neil: not the be-all, end-all. it was our piggy bank. >> people are afraid of being priced out of a home so they would buy at these prices thinking it would go even higher. i don't know if you hear this, i don't hear that very much. neil: no. >> home prices have gone up a lot since 2012. neil: all right. robert shiller, wish i had more time. how stories go viral and drive economic events. intangibles that maybe economists and numbers crunchers have to start crunching and appreciating because they are what we think and do and down the road, spend. stay with us. ♪

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neil: earnings coming out this week. talk about the narrative. narrative is building around that. with apologies to bob schiller it will be contracting quarter. earnings this year will be down

4% from last year. walk banking earning they're ones to watch. they're so sensitive to the economy. lower rates have gone the less profitable it has been for them. it is way early in the process. a lot coming out on that front. here is charles payne right now. charles: thank you very much, neil. i'm charles payne this is "making money." breaking at this moment. markets cautiously grappling with what is next with the trade truce. we'll break it all down for the investor. what should you be doing at the very moment. with the fed interest rate decision looming, many are calling out president trump for bullying central bank but is it really wall street bullying the fed? one investor takes a stand. sanders calling out warren as capitalist as he tries to make himself the front-runner ahead of tomorrow's