now the question is, what happens next? ultimately the fires are out but californians have to look at much higher electric charges, prices, much higher home insurance prices. who knows what, who is going to bail out pg&e. neil, it is yours. neil: a lot of questions with that, stuart. thank you very, very much. we were following same thing you were, my friend. what the federal reserve does. could we see a fed three-peat, will the third time prove the final charm? let's go to ed lawrence what we can expect from the federal reserve. that is the consensus we'll see a quarter-point cut but that might be it for a while. what are you hearing? reporter: that is the consensus. they want to look at the data going forward, if there is a december rate cut. they're looking at inflation and uncertainty. on the inflation front the federal reserve is saying they're under 2% target again. overall inflation.

somewhere 1.4% but the mixed signals are there. because the unemployment rate is at 3.5%. the lowest since 1969. wages are rising. still on the uncertainty, specifically, trade, and the global economic slowdown, companies are basically frozen with what to do with the money. they're sitting on a pile of cash but waiting for some of that trade uncertainty to sort of shake itself out to figure out where they want to invest cash going forward. that is what the federal reserve is trying to figure out for long term assessment of the economy. one of the debates going an inside the federal reserve with chairman jay powell. i interviewed, exclusive interview with tom barkin, president of the richmond fed. he said that inflation, or the prices are low. inflation is low, because of the trade uncertainty. listen. >> whether it is transparency on the internet, big box retailers, the power of their purchasing departments they're very nervous

about the ability to pass on prices. when uncertainty is high, it would be human nature to suggest that we have a little bit more caution and push through a bigger price increase. reporter: so if uncertainty goes away, some of the trade deals, usmca ratified, china phase one deal is actually signed, maybe price was increase, that is the debate going on. the 25 basis points would probably not satisfy the president at the white house. you are seeing a tempered response from the president since the fed is making rate cuts. before the rate cuts he is really going after the fed. now you hear it somewhat here and there. the white house blindsided by another decision. chile's president has decided not to host the apex summit. that is because unrest in chile. chile is concerned that they will be able to protect the world leaders. you can see some issues chile is having to deal with in santiago. that is just yesterday.

to bring world leaders into the situation. chile will not host the event. president donald trump hoped to sign a phase one trade deal written with china during that apex summit t remains to be seen exactly where that summit will be next but that phase one deal still being worked on, the language still being put down on paper as we speak. back to you, neil. neil: too soon to find another location for at least this year's summit? reporter: maybe. there are some areas. think about the chinese, certainly could turn and host something in macao. you could have singapore could host something probably tomorrow related to this on a big stage. there are some venues out there. depending what the conference decides to go going forward. at this point we don't know. neil: my friend, thank you very, very much. to edward's point, if we do see a third-rate hike, we would sort of reverse ad third of the nine hikes we have seen since late 2015.

so we've still be up a net six hikes, six, 1/4 point hikes in the period. there is not a lot of room in the quiver because there are not a lot of arrows in the quiver. we're getting one good economic news, while that is welcome on news for federal reserve to move up on this, that is probably not a environment we want to see. 1.9% gdp growth for the latest quarter. that was much better than 1.6 expected. consumer spending was strong. private payrolls expectedly strong 100,000 in the latest month. strong earnings, companies handily beating estimates, consumer sentiment is high, housing doing more than holding its own. let's get the read on this money map press investment strategist,

keith keith fitz-gerald and kaitlin owens, "axios" reporter. criticizing the federal reserve on the hikes that it initiated under jerome powell last year. a quarter point will not cut it for the president and might cut to the chase to let them know about it. what are you hearing? >> i mean i wouldn't be surprised. i don't think men knows what the president will say or tweet. he has been critical of the fed in the past. i wouldn't be surprised if that continues. the president also has a very strong incentive for the economy to remain doing well, especially headed into 2020. especially in the contents of democrats impeachment inquiry on going right now. neil: i'm wondering how much that will be a wild card in all the development, keith. underlying economic statistics particularly on the jobs front,

we'll get a much broader sense on friday. what is your sense where we stand right now? >> well, believe it or not i think those numbers, gdp that data is outmoded and outdated. i think the economy is actually stronger than the read we're getting. that can't accurately value technology. it can't accurately value you synergy from international trade even though there is trade war. uncertainty will drive traders. you have to turn to the companies for that. not the president, not the economic summits, not any classic data. you have to look how companies that are guiding forward. and that is a good picture. neil: dan, one of first things i noticed when the overall headline number was strong, when it came to business investment it dropped in the quarter, about 3% or so, not alarming, again reflecting some concern about trade i would imagine. what do you notice?

>> well, yes, the business and non-residential investment dropped to the lowest level since late 2015. i think that is a better precursor than consumer spending because the consumers are basically spending and creating more consumer debt. i think businesses have it smart, that there is something coming down the pike. that is why they're not spending. that did affect gdp. what boosted more was government spending. i don't believe government spending an consumer spending is accurate. business spending is ba rom tore of what is to -- barometer what is to come. a drop since late 2015 is a bit alarming to me, neil. neil: kaitlin, as federal reserve does at the outset that they will cut rates a quarter point, that is always risky, that is it for a while. if that is it for a while what are you hearing on the political

side what happens next? >> as "axios" reported that the economy is huge going into 2020. president pointed to it repeatedly. he referred to it earlier this month, as the impeachment was getting underway. the if the economy does go south and numbers stop looking so good and consumers stop feeling so good about it, that could be bad news for trump. neil: separately, guys, we're getting news here that the white house is awaiting information regarding the apec summit site and a china trade deal. they seem, keith fitz-gerald holding to the possibility of finding a different venue of this. chile because of protests in the country thought for better part of valor and key participant, head of states of all the economic powerhouses it was best to cancel it there but in the next couple weeks they hope to find another venue. is it important they do because that would be the venue we're

told that this first plays of a trade deal would be signed off? >> well, how cool would that be, neil? if we did get that. we got a phase one deal, even if it is imperfect income, the fact of the matter that is the one thing not calculated in market and i think the fed knows that. the fed is walking a tightrope because that is the one variable that it cannot reflect in its models. companies will look favorably. a lot of capital waiting for that to happen. the business spending is on the table and it will come back so fast it will catch a lot of people by surprise. neil: dan, the white house is saying in the released statement, we look forward to finalizing the phase one of the historic deal with china in the same time frame. presumably in next couple weeks when the chile summit was supposed to begin. when we have announcement, we'll let you foe. so what happens if it is really pushed off because of things out of the administration's control or china's control?

then what? >> well, i don't think it is going to be good because everybody is relying on this trade agreement. i still personally don't believe, as i've been mentioning that this trade agreement will either get done or will actually prove itself out because we're dealing with a communist country. so even if they sign it how do we know it is going to be the real deal and that's a big problem? there is some underlying conditions in the global economy that the fed needs to face and eninvestors need to face. one occurred recently was the repo market. i know the trade deal sounds exciting but why is the repo market with the banks, why are the banks short money? and why is the federal reserve extending repurchase agreements? as far as the rate today is concerned, i think neil, they could actually go half a point. neil: really? >> i know quarter is baked into the statistics. i think with the overnight bank lending and repos the fed buying treasurys from the bank's

balance sheets and oversubscribed every time they do the repos, that is major issue to me. why are the banks short cash? i don't get it. trade deal is great, but a lot of factors other investors need to be aware of. neil: keith? >> banks are short cash because they're levered up to their eyeballs for all their trading activity, et cetera, et cetera, from an investing standpoint yes, that is a concern but really what makes the world goes round is companies and access to capital. they got it. i think the fed is doing damage control in anticipation of something it can't control. neil: thank you all very much for talking. i wish we had more time. unfortunate thely we don't. to explain what is going on in the repo market. it can get gobbledygookish that is a technical term. banks had short of supply. like getting to the atm, they didn't have more money for you. it is little more convoluted.

but keeps happening again and again and scares folks not least of which the banks. federal reserve cut will be a quarter point. it would bring, if we get this right, always, always dangerous, overnight bank lending rate federal fund, one 1/2 to 1 and 3/4% level. it would be in that change. if one is right it, would be more than that, a half a point. unlikely, consensus always dangerous. they're expecting that will be the range, maybe for a while. meanwhile in california right now i don't think they are focusing on the fed fund rate. they are focusing on fires out of control. for the first time in the state's history, now facing an extreme red flag warning. there are different stages of warnings to participants and those who live in the fire zone. never a level at this high, this dangerous. right now this dramatic. in fact it includes not only hundreds of potential homes in its path but even the reagan library.

more after this. there's a power in listening; it's what gives audible members an edge. it opens our minds, changes our perspective, connects us, and pushes us further. the most inspiring minds, the most compelling stories: audible. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance, so you only pay for what you need. i wish i could shake your hand. granted. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪

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♪. neil: all right the house expected to vote tomorrow. what they're calling impeachment resolution or impeachment process, new ground rules for this that will hopefully satisfy republicans who feel that it all been stunted one way. but they claim, and the president claims it is still a witch-hunt which is appropoe title of my next guest, gregg jarrett. "witch-hunt, the story of the greatest mass delusion in american political history." great to have you back. >> great to be with you. neil: this process, what do you think of what you have heard about it? you have serious reservations, right? >> i mean in my recent column i call adam schiff, poor man's

harry houdini, illusionist with cheap parlor tricks. he is trying to confuse americans that opinion is evidence and facts are not. the facts are contained in the transcript and statement of the two participant in the transcript, zelensky and trump. there is no quid pro quo, no pressure, no condition, no demand. neil: we're lead to believe the transcript was not entirely accurate? >> if you have an auto accident with 20 witnesses you will have 20 versions of it, lieutenant colonel vindman was listening, offering his interpretation. i didn't think it was proper. that is opinion. opinion is not facts. facts are stated in the transcript itself. somebody who came up to me at the train station this morning, i read this transcript, what is wrong with it? and that is the fundamental. neil: even accost you at train station? >> i take public transportation.

i don't have a limo driver. neil: you're too much. we'll make this interview short. no. i'm kidding. your whole sense, this was and is a witch-hunt. even though some other developments, ukraine thing are post the book, is it your sense that this is similarly specious then? is that the whole thing, if you fail with mueller, you're going to fail at this, democrats? >> i think this is twice as ludicrous as the original trump russia collusion hoax and witch-hunt. there is just really not a basis here for an impeachment inquiry, much less than a impeachment vote, trial in the u.s. senate. i think senators made it pretty clear so far, they're not buying into this. the original witch-hunt -- neil: if you had to guess, you follow this much closer than i do, that he will rightly or wrongly be impeached in the

house, you think that is going to happen, i don't know about that, but if it comes to the senate do you see any republicans possibly voting to impeach? >> maybe one or two but you have to have 67. this was the wisdom of the framers. they feared that impeachment would be used as a political weapon by an opposing party. so they put a procedural protection in it, 2/3 supermajority to prevent this sort of thing from happening and you know, one of the things, i think could happen is you're allowed to make a motion to dismiss when it gets to the u.s. senate. bill clinton did that. it didn't succeed but the situation is dramatically different here. it could succeed in the u.s. senate. so i wouldn't preordain a trial even if there is impeachment. neil: all right. so, looking at this, and you see where things stand, now this impeachment process, do you think that the ukraine stuff has

legs to it? you you were saying of the ukraine thing, it is appropriate for the president to ask ukraine to look into potentially corrupt acts by a high-ranking official. >> right. neil: but the appearance of doing this to, against someone you think would be your opponent in the election does complicate things, doesn't it? >> i agree and you and i talked about this before but i would say two things. first of all, biden doesn't get immunity simply because he is running for president and second of all -- neil: do you this is anyone else you think the president would have been aggressive? >> i don't know. i can't say. you're sort of creating a standard that is unfair. good presidents make decisions based on what's right, now how it appears you know, you're sort of -- neil: doesn't even appear right. >> that is your you'as to harm biden politically. i would take the other position. neil: getting dirt on biden?

may be perfectly valid reason for getting to the bottom of all this but it is not lost on anyone it would be beneficial if the dirt he got made biden look bad? >> of course, a president has a duty if he is aware of potential corrupt act, the foreign guest to look into it. isn't that what we expect to have presidents faithfully execute the law. neil: i didn't like the way the prior conversation was, you wrote a great book, well researched and noted but my argument at the time did you, i still feel, did you fine either any exaggerations or statements on the part of the president himself that just keeps this going? that he has a history of, of, let's say exaggerating? others would say lying. >> you can use whatever word you want, hyperbole, embellishment, aren't we all guilty of that one time or another?

americans knew what they were getting with donald trump. he is a maverick. he does things differently. that was attraction of voters. neil: you're a great lawyer. does he mischaracterize things when he says the mueller report fully exonerate him on obstruction of justice? mueller himself didn't exonerate him? >> inverted burden of proof with the presumption of innocence which was uncon shunnable. that is not a legal standard that exists. he is incorporating what bar said -- neil: anyone, if they constantly have a habit of exaggerating misstating i even think of my little nerdy economic world, the president has said, we have the best economy ever. we don't. this is the biggest tax cut ever. it isn't. the tariffs, the chinese are paying, they're not. clean coal is really heading back in the right direction. murray energy just went bankrupt. this is nothing to do -- >> i agree with you. i think you can pick apart some

of his statements saying he went too far. neil: this is what feeds the beast. >> i said that about my own statements. i think sometimes i engage in too much hyperbole to get a point across. you've done it as well, i'm sure. neil: only on the bond market. only on the bond market. >> gobbledygookish, isn't that the term you said ago? >> what the president said, michael flynn, former national security advisor wasn't lying even when flynn admitted he was. >> he pled guilty to a charge of lying and what's amazing to me, it is that the two fbi agents who interviewed him, i have it in my book, the report that came out in july of that year -- neil: way they went about it was weird. >> and they said it was their determination he was not lying. i opened a chapter 8 with very

quote from the report. neil: mischaracterizes things, people look at this, history of this, you're not here to psychoanalyze the president or those that go after him, but that feeds this view that the president, if he exaggerates that much about so much, that he exaggerates and or hides stuff that investigators are almost tempted to follow up on? >> he's offering his opinion quite often. , his interpretation of certain events. the flynn example is a perfect example. people plead guilty to crimes, sometimes they know they didn't commit. they do it for other reasons. flynn was broke. mueller's team of partisans were threatening to prosecute his son. neil: you don't think there is anything wrong with what he did in ukraine? >> the president? no. i look at the facts and the evidence and the law. the department of justice looked at that conversation and said there is no crime here. so all we're left with, is

wonderfully nebulous term, abuse of power. which is nowhere in the constitution. neil: got it. i know you had a key role writing it. gregg jarrett, book he wrote, on top of best-seller list where it should be. witch-hunt, i highly recommend it no matter your political views. [grunting]

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neil: now i know why they call it hbo max. because it is so expensive! tracee carrasco on this. reporter: hbo max will be 14.99 a month. making it one of the more expensive streaming options launching next may. compared to netflix, hulu, apple tv and disney plus. hbo max will be a jumbo version of hbo with programing, hit shows and movies from warner brothers as well as new original content. the new service will be free for current hbo subscribers as well premium at&t wireless and

broadband customers. speaking of free, streaming service competitor amazon rolling out free grocery delivery to prime members. items from amazon fresh and whole foods, can now be ordered online, delivered in as little as two hours. until now the grocery delivery service was additional 14.99 a month on top of the yearly prime membership. looking at shares of johnson & johnson up as the company says no signs of asbestos were found in its baby powder after testing. the company recalled 33,000 bottom else -- bottles of baby powder after the food and drug administration said this found trace amounts of carcinogen in a bottle purchase the of online. neil: fires in california are so close to the reagan library that they can smell it. after this. car like i treat mine.

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neil: all the muckety-mucks elect elizabeth warren you will see a 25% bashing in the dow, paul tudor jones says that. about some say, no, no, calm down. charlie gasparino. >> i don't know calm down, this is what happened in the last couple weeks, she has become front-runner more or less replacing joe biden.

joe biden leads in most national polls. a lot of people think she has momentum to do it. particularly if bernie sanders drops out. what we have seen, i'm getting this from numerous wall street democrats who reached out to her campaign, spoke to them directly. we have seen a sort of detente going on. there has been interaction. this is elizabeth warren -- neil: she doesn't take money from them. >> only limit it to $200 a person. she hasn't taken much money so far. neil: she did in her senate days. >> so, she, you know, called for breaking up banks, attacks hedge fund guys, the whole thing. we should point out there is a lot of wall street democrats out there. they have a lot of money but as she is rising in the polls, as it becomes more increasingly possible she will be the democratic nominee two things have happened. they reach out and they have not been told to "hit the road jack." there has been a detente between her camp and them. what is being said? two things from what i'm

gathering. number one the wall street guys are getting indications she will moderate her message, anti-capitalism, anti-bank message, if she wins the general election. not going to be as strident. neil: what does that mean? no wealth tax. no wall street tax? >> i don't know. neil: she would have to run to the middle, everyone does, but she would, have to sprint. >> it is going to be hard. that is what they have been told. the second thing is, if they want to contribute more than the $200, she is going, there will be ways that they can do that. here the reality. she can't unilaterally disarm. she will go against trump that will finance. already setting record. forget he will be impeached. he will not be thrown out of office. that will galvanize the republican fund-raising base. she will go against that. if she doesn't take money, she

will get crushed the whole ticket will get crushed that is the argument being made. neil: would their money make that big of a difference? >> yes. they bundle. they have fund-raising circuits. it would be, if she unilaterally -- neil: what if it is dnc money. >> that is where they say it could go. they could funnel to the dnc. neil: they made gave money directly -- >> here little thing she is not taking more than $200, those limits, if you leave it, carefully, there is wiggle room. the campaign, the bigger story there is day student going on between wall street. coming as she is rising in the polls and when her people are recognizing, neil, that they're going to need to raise wall street money or at least hedge fund money, all that sort of -- neil: why would they be so jazzed about someone who could conceivably rip them a new one with taxes.

>> they all want a seat at table. they are democrats. they despise donald trump and they're out there. i'm not saying, when i say that, don't, viewers, don't assume i'm agreeing with them, because i'm not. neil: right. >> i'm telling you the reality. neil: they hate you anyway, no matter what you say. >> who? viewers or wall street? that is a good place to be where everybody hates you. i'm an equal opportunity abuser. that is we'll have a full write-up on foxbusiness.com. it is an interesting story. we'll lay out some of the parameters. other scuttlebutt you hear. mike bloomberg, lots of talk he is getting in. hillary clinton. neil: like a -- >> you're waiting for him. hillary clinton is telling people emphatically no, she is not getting in. one person i think could get in, fund-raisers who left the door open at this late-stage, mike bloomberg because he can self-fund and he does have name recognition.

neil: as do you. charlie gasparino, best in the business. we like that. chicago teachers strike is going on, kids forced out of class for the 10th straight day. where is this all going? after this. ♪.

♪. neil: all right. it goes on and on the chicago attachers strike here and putting a lot of things at risk, including scholarships, you name it. jeff flock in chicago with the latest. reporter: push really coming to shove here. i think, negotiators went back hour 1/2 ago. i think we could get a settlement early as today, if not certainly this week. why do i say that? push is coming to shove. take a look at impacts now. we had to cancel the psat tests. you know how important that is if you have got children.

there are practice s.a.t., but they also qualify for national merit scholarships. they will lose out on that. so they have to use a previous test score or not get it. also if they don't settle today, the chicago schools don't go to the football play offs, even qualifieded for that. cross county, golf, tennis, volleyball, they have blown out of that. students really losing. if they don't come to an agreement by friday, teachers start to lose their health insurance. so that is an added impetus. according to the mayor we've got a deal but they want her to endorse their political agenda, the ctu, the chicago teachers union. that doesn't belong in a teachers contract. i do think all signs point to a settlement soon. this has been an ugly one. the worst since the one i covered back in the early '80s, which was a long one. not a good thing, neil. neil: here we go.

buddy, thank you very much. jeff flock on that. we're learning of a former juul executive alleging the e-cigarette shipped a million contaminated pods to the market. juul is calling a lot of these claims baseless. deirdre bolton has much more. >> this is pretty explosive. siddharth breja said jewel sold tainted products to customers and retailers. he said he was directed to demand payment from some of their suppliers. altered ingredients for bad patches but did not warn the distributors or customers directly. he alleges the then ceo, underline, this is no longer the ceo, kevin burns is his name, responded to his concerns saying half our customers are drunk and vaping like mofos, who the f is going to notice. he says, mr. breja says he was

terminated one week after raising concerns. neil: terminated for those remarks? >> well the company says not at all. they say he failed to, their direct quote, failed to demonstrate the leadership qualities needed needed needed . breja said he exaggerated his role at his previous employer uber. they said his allegations regarding these pods are not true but this is becoming such a hot topic, the cdc identified 450 million people who suffered. six kids died. kids who never had seizures before now have seizures. american lung association says e-cigarettes are unsafe. juul is, put in a new ceo, somebody who came from altria which we know as former philip morris who is heading up this company. it is cutting 500 jobs. it is actually going to ban flavored pods which is 80% of u.s. sales. you know, long story short, big picture, this was supposed to help adults in theory stop

smoking cigarettes. when they developed flavors such as cotton candy and carmel, people said okay, hang on. now you're going for kids. even the trump administration -- neil: don't adults like some of that stuff too? >> i think so. but cotton candy -- neil: eventually going to be, you know for just adults? >> i think mint, for example, they seem to be leaving alone, adults use toothpaste, a lot of times mint. cotton candy, can carmel, trump admin station saying we're banning think, fires are threatening ronald reagan presidential library amid a extreme red flag warning. christina coleman has the latest. christina? reporter: right now we are in, just outside the parking lot of the presidential library. you can see the library right over there. but if you just take a look to my right, you can see some of

the smoking embers here, a little bit of flames. this area right here was on fire just moments ago. helicopters had come over this way. they did the water drop and put the flames out. they're just smoldering over there, which is a big problem, considering how very windy it is in this area right now. now this is called the e fire. it has burned 407-acres so far. it can be seen burning near power lines. evacuations are underway around the easy fire. trend ture ventura county school district is closed. the library is closed. there are five doors across the museum that protects displays and artifacts inside. that is good to know around the library it is smoldering because of a fast-moving fire. it went from just about

170-acres to 407-acres in a matter of hours, with just a strong wind. and it is no telling when this wind will die down at this point. so you have a lot of helicopters. i can hear them. i can't see them right now. they have been flying around here. they're doing water drops. they're fighting this fire on both land and air, trying to get these flames under control and contained as much of it as possible. so, very evolving situation here. we will continue to keep you posted on the very latest. back to you. neil: christina, thank you very much. be safe. meantime we're getting word of course that the apec conference has been canceled in chile. they have been having violent protest there is. the president is still hopeful that a trade deal can be signed, written off, nevertheless within the next couple weeks, saying we look forward to finalizing phase one of the historic trade deal with china in the same time frame. when we have announcement we'll let you know. from spokesman hogan gidley.

we'll have more after this. the right set of words, bring us all just a little closer? get us to open up? even push us further? it could, if we took the time to listen. the most inspiring minds, the most compelling stories. download audible and listen for a change.

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liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ neil: want to alert you defense secretary mark esper is briefing senate and house members on the baghdadi raid that killed him. the next day one of his chief lieutenants. his spokesman. we'll get an update shortly. arizona republican senator martha mcsally, originally opposed withdrawing troops from syria. senator, good to have you. >> good to be back on, neil. neil: let me first ask on the syria move, it didn't stop the president from tracking down, obviously with the military al-baghdadi, no big issue here. what do you say? >> firstly i'm so proud of the men and women and warrior dog

who participated in this important mission it kill al-baghdadi. he is responsible for the death of kayla mueller from arizona and it was very fitting that the operation was named after her. and we are, that message sent we will track you down, terrorist leaders like him, his number two, anybody else. it may take a little time. you need to sleep with one eye open. america is not going to stand back while these terrorist organizations fester. so i'm really proud of the effort up and down the chain of command to make this happen so successfully. neil: you don't think then, that given all the criticism the president was getting on moving troops out of syria, that led to the turkish invasion, he said that would happen anyway, you're still not satisfied with that part, right? >> turkey was going to invade syria. we don't want american troops cause in that crossfire. neil: do you think they would have invaded if our troops were there, senator? >> i do. we had less than 50 there.

if you see the activities and planning they had done over the last month, this was imminent invasion. you know, calling their bluff would have been extremely dangerous but the point is, they are, we still need a strategic presence there to make sure that isis doesn't gain a additional foothold that we saw under the obama administration. the value of human intelligence was critical in this operation. and it will continue to be. so other agencies like cia, need to still be engaged to make sure these terrorists don't continue to grow and fester in this generational fight we have. this is a great win for the country for the bad guys. neil: i apologize. do you wonder what happens now? obviously no one is going to come front and center say, i'm now the head of isis. that would be a little foolhardy but it is not dead, that it is going to spring up, maybe plan some sort of a response? they have gotten heightened security in all major cities, new york included.

what do you think of all that? >> we're in a generation fight against islamic ideology. isis 2.0 is certainly out there but this is tremendous blow to their organization. the one benefit, i used to oversee counterterrorism operations like this in the military, the one benefit of sending in our troops is the site exploitation they did where they brought back a treasure trove of intelligence, electronic and other, to get a better understanding of their networks, their planning. this is incredibly disruptive to them. but it doesn't mean we don't need to be vigilant in all countries around the world where this ideology can be a threat to hurt americans, attack america. neil: senator, i would be remiss if i wasn't keeping eye what is going on in the house right now where they're coming up with a impeachment process i guess, best way to put it, not so much an inquiry, trying to organize rules be seemingly fairer to republicans even though not a

one i talked to likes it but the betting seems to be, fairly or not will be impeached in the house because so many democrats there and 218 votes are there. but then it is up to the senate -- >> i think you're getting ahead of yourself. neil: you might be right but if it did fall out that way, mitch mcconnell can accept or reject pursuing it in the senate. what do you think of that? >> neil, we have a lot of work to do and they're going through a process and look, they need to be passing usmca. they need to be focusing on working with us to lower prescription drugs. they need to work with us to support our military and get the budget and funding -- neil: none of that is being done, right, nada, zippo. >> that is what they want the focus to be. that is what we're focused on in the senate right now. extremely frustrating to see they're blocking things good for america because somehow they might be good for the administration. we're doing our work over here. we'll continue to be adults in

the room. neil: if you call this waste of time and cabal, president says, a witch-hunt against them, would you agree the senate shouldn't even take this matter up? >> neil, i signed on to the lindsey graham resolution. any process needs to be fair. president trump deserves the same process that president clinton had. and this is deeply concerning to a lot of people that i represent and many senators over here. we're focusing on the work of america right now. i think people are tired of nancy pelosi and her politics, the way she is stonewalling things like the usmca and other things really important to move right now. neil: senator, thank you for taking the time. we'll see what happens on that front. bad news for joe biden at least in the state of new hampshire but his campaign isn't worrying. maybe after you hear what is also going in iowa they should be. gold!

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neil: all right. one hour from now, we will know. welcome, everybody. i'm neil cavuto. you're watching "coast to coast" on fox business network which if you don't get, you should demand but you obviously are getting it so there's no need to demand. the president has been demanding a substantial cut in interest rates. today it's presumed or at least estimated one quarter point cut, the third in this cycle, and maybe the last for awhile. that might not satisfy him. if it comes to pass, and we will know as i said, in about an hour, that will remove about a third of the nine rate cuts that were started under jerome powell's predecessor back in late 2015. it's the ones that were really initiated by jerome powell that have really stuck in the president's craw so no matter what that guy does, it probably will not go down well. again, the estimate is we will see the overnight bank relendin

rate known as federal funds averaging between 1.5% to 1.75%. that might be it for awhile. borrowing costs will go down and the more prudent among you who try to save money, your savings rates will go down right along with them. let's go to "wall street journal" editorial board member james freeman, democratic strategist david bernstein, "new york post" editorial page assistant editor brooke rogers. quarter point is what we are hearing. that could always be dicey. how do you think the president responds to that? >> well, the president would like interest rates cut to zero so i don't think he will ever be happy with any cuts, especially under powell. i think he's going to keep fighting for more cuts, especially as we get more into the campaign season, because the economy has been such a strong talking point for him that he will want to point to growth and he will want that stimulation in the economy. neil: we've got some growth, right? looking at it here, we had a little more growth in the third quarter than was thought. 1.9%, the gdp was moving up, 1.6% was the estimate. private payroll is up 125,000, the latest month versus 100,000

estimate. that could be a good precursor to the report that comes out on friday. your thoughts? >> similar to the second quarter, the economy is mediocre, little less mediocre than we thought. it's a little better than we thought. neil: you are so getting a presidential tweet. what does he mean, mediocre. >> you look at the underlying data in there, it's very clear that the problem is this uncertainty over trade. that is what is limiting corporate investment, which is the weak spot once again -- neil: that was down 3% in the quarter. that is trepidation over trade. >> yeah. it's not a problem that interest rate cutting can solve. i think -- i'm glad you mentioned at the top this punishes savers. we have gotten used to this environment where interest rates are at rock bottom. we are now getting pretty close to zero real return at this rate and that's really corrosive long-term. i hope this is the end of the

cutting cycle. neil: the argument has been whatever happens today, it's going to at least assure that the economy doesn't tank before the election. you buy that? >> i don't necessarily buy that because i think everyone has been saying that, you know, there is a recession coming and while no one is hoping for that, that's probably likely to happen sometime. neil: you're kind of hoping for it. >> i'm not. i want america and americans to succeed. i want the country to succeed. but i think the reality is we have had this unprecedented period of growth. it's clearly slowing, although there is growth, and it's just a question of when. i think you can talk to 100 different people and they will each give you a smart answer, many of them here on this show, and nobody knows for sure. it could be right before the election, could be right after the election, could be sometime next summer, it could be next year. we don't really know. it's hard to tell. >> the trade thing was a big part of it. i'm wondering, the president -- the white house put out a statement saying even though

this chile thing is off, because of riots there and elsewhere, but they still want another location to do this. i don't know if the poconos is up there or the catskills but they want this done. so what if it's substantially delayed? doesn't that add to the uncertainty? >> absolutely. when rates were cut in july and september it was because of uncertainty surrounding the trade war and with this expected meeting cut off, canceled, i think there will be a lot of doubt and i think unless trump can continue to increase confidence around that meeting happening, it could affect it as well. yes. neil: you know, stepping way back, earnings look pretty good, not for everybody, but they are coming in better than expectations. i know it's a game that's played. a lot of guys rachet down expectations and surprise on the upside. but retail numbers look pretty good, consumer sentiment numbers look pretty good, yet the president polling wise is not so

far benefiting. polls with specious, to put it mildly, but what do you think of that? >> it is a good economy. it's not great. it's not the growth we could be hitting, i think we would be hitting given the tax and regulatory reforms, but this trade fight does get in the way. i don't think we are doomed to recession. i don't think there's anything in the data that says we are in recession or close to recession. neil: we haven't outlawed that. there are cycles. this has been a long one. >> it can happen. often it happens because of policy mistakes. i think the fed has made a lot of mistakes over the years. i don't think they should be sacrosanct. i think it's fair to question their judgment. but in this case, the argument that we should keep cutting out of a concern about possible uncertainty and geopolitical events which may or may not come to pass -- neil: i don't think we need it. i would rather save that for moments when we do. >> that's right. there's no crisis here. >> the reality is the uncertainty, forget the fed, the

president is squarely within his power to settle this uncertainty. this trade war is largely of his making. he picked this fight. we didn't have to have this fight. neil: maybe it was a good fight to have. >> very possibly, but he picked it. he stood up and said i want to have this fight. so the uncertainty we are facing is largely of his making. neil: if he forces them to come to the table and deliver on s e some -- [ speaking simultaneously ] >> of course, absolutely. i hope that it does yield that because i do think there are issues there. but it is also creating a lot of uncertainty. neil: if you get that and a good economy that you hope for, then democrats are done. >> well, if he can communicate about it and keep the message on. he's had a problem on it. neil: i kid with him but just to indicate the democratic race is weird right now. joe biden is slipping fast. you know, he's i think fourth or fifth in iowa. he's trailing in new hampshire.

usually, i think for both parties, you win one or the other or both, or you're dead. >> yeah. i think that joe biden has taken a big hit in this area. nationally, he tends to either poll first or very close to first. warren sometimes surpasses him. in new hampshire and iowa his numbers don't look good. he's third in new hampshire, fourth in iowa, and bernie and -- neil: you act surprised i got that right. >> oh, no. but i think that he is kind of facing an uphill battle because he's not looking great in debates. when he goes on the debate stage, he gets attacked a lot because he's the front-runner and his answers are kind of weak. neil: kind of what axelrod was saying. he's playing too, too safe or whatever. you think he is? >> i think axelrod is saying you can't keep him in the candidate protection program. you know, people can debate this but there's an argument that he's being saved from gaffes by

his staff, limiting the access of the media, limiting events perhaps. certainly he's got a problem versus the other leading contenders in terms of cash on hand. he's got a problem in terms of being behind in those major -- in the two early states. but he's still leading overall. and i think right now -- neil: we don't know the eventual nomin nominee, without a fight, coordinated or not hillary clinton had a hell of a battle with bernie sanders, right. it's never easy. the assumption that it can be or you can play it safe is wrong. right? no matter who. >> it's funny because i'm having memories of rudy giuliani's florida strategy here, as i think about this. >> idiotic. >> this has been my concern about biden the whole time. we cover this from these races, from a national polling perspective but really, the states don't matter because after two states vote, all the national polls change. nobody wants to be with a loser who is now suddenly you go from a potential, investing in a

potential -- [ speaking simultaneously ] >> suddenly he didn't look like a winner anymore and his whole campaign was not dissimilar, i'm a winner, i'm a winner and after you have lost two times you're not a winner anymore. that's biden's problem. he's got a lot of things going for him, a lot of the same things rudy giuliani and jeb bush had going for them when they got into primaries and we know how those stories turned out. >> he's also got better ideas. i think if you are a biden backer, maybe you are a little excited about the fact that while he's had trouble maybe getting a coherent sentence out, he has raised the right questions about government-run health care. elizabeth warren still is yet to tell us where she's getting the $30 trillion in tax revenue. bernie has told us about where half the money is coming from. these are big kind of political unfunded liabilities, you might say, for these other contenders. as that comes out, if they have to disclose where all the tax increases are, maybe biden starts looking a little more

attractive. neil: market tumble or economic disruption of historic magnitude changes everything. we saw that in 2008, where mccain and barack obama were running neck and neck until it happened. yesterday the 90th anniversary of the '29 crash, herbert hoover looked well on his way to re-election in the roaring '20s and of course, we know what happened. a big government enthusiast named fdr emerged, someone who i think the new york telegram had said just a few weeks earlier was unelectable. so things can change. >> yeah. you know, if it happens, maybe that opens the door more for sanders or warren or maybe they want john delaney. >> or buttigieg or somebody else who comes out of the vacuum. big question about biden, where do all those voters go. he still has a sizeable amount of support even if it's slipping. where do those people go? i don't think they go to warren orened saers. do they find someone like buttigieg or kamala, perhaps, in his absence? neil: if you people don't behave

at home i'm going to use more 1929 footage. they are all moving very fast. ever notice that? >> it was a panic. neil: more after this. ♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪

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neil: all right. hurricane force winds, fanning flames, all that now threatening the reagan presidential library itself in simi valley, california. we will keep you updated on this. 100 plus homes, we are told, are also the latest in this incredible firestorm's path. they can't get it under control. in the meantime, growing signs the impeachment inquiry or process is certainly in the making and up for a vote tomorrow. what we don't know is whether they are going to be doing anything else in the interim and that includes well after tomorrow. hillary vaughn at the white

house with the very latest. reporter: well, house investigators are hearing from two state department officials today, christopher anderson and katheri katherine croft who worked with the special deputy to the envoy to ukraine, kurt volker. they are readying their resolution, setting the ground rules for the impeachment inquiry that's well under way. mitch mcconnell says the democrats' ground rules deny the president basic rights of due process. >> democrats have plenty of time and energy for their three-year-old journey to impeach the president, but they can't get to yes on funding our service members. that's about as clear a statement of priorities as you can get around here. reporter: nancy pelosi insists the house can do two things at once but house republicans say they can't be in two places at once, complaining that the house is holding important hearings at the same time that critical closed door depositions are

happening in the scif. democrats say republicans are nit-picking the inquiry process and ignoring the substance behind it. >> there's almost entirely by the republican conference, a focus on process and procedure, and not a moment of thought about the underlying facts which are really the subject of all this inquiry in the first place. i really wish that we would pay as much attention to the behavior of the president which has been obviously pretty outrageous behavior by anyone's measure. reporter: president trump is now encouraging republicans to go after substance, tweeting this this morning. republicans are very unified and energized in our fight on the impeachment hoax with the do nothing democrats and now we're starting to go after substance even more than the very unfair process. republicans, go with substance and close it out but there is this ongoing disagreement over process. texas congressman is gathering signatures, trying to force the vote that's happening tomorrow

to be by voice which would mean every member in the house of representatives would have to stand up and say whether or not they support this ground rules inquiry revolution. neil? neil: no chance of any republican votes there, so the issue would be whether democrats have the 218 they will need. the white house seems to be hinting they probably do. right? reporter: yeah. and we are also hearing from our colleague chad pergram that there are some democrats that would not support this resolution. i think that's why you are seeing republicans say you need to stand up and either commit to the resolution or not, which would of course put democrats in a sticky position that don't want to be a forceful no, would have to stand by that decision and maybe some of their districts back home that would push back on their decision to not move forward with this impeachment related resolution. neil: great reporting, hillary vaughn at the white house. let's go to my pal david, brooke

and james. james, i always wonder how long the process will take, assuming they get a vote passed tomorrow that calls for something like a process even though it's not a formal inquiry, then what? >> yeah. i think the vote may tell us whether this dies immediately or eventually. looking back to impeachment of bill clinton in 1998, you had five democrats in a republican house voting for it. if this has little or no republican support, i think you kind of -- neil: in the house, there may not be any republicans. >> going forward, i wouldn't think it goes too much further than that. neil: what do you think? >> look, i think this is the right way forward, because people have been complaining what's the process, what's the process. how hopefully we can get over the process questions and on to the substance. in a rare moment of agreement between democrats and the president today, it would seem. neil: not all republicans agree with this. right? >> that's right. that's right.

but i think in general, democrats are the majority party and they run these processes. that's what happens when you win elections. but the reality is over time, i would not be surprised to see one or two republican votes for this. i would be shocked if it's more. some of these that are retiring -- neil: some say they would like a process. >> that's right. this is vote for the process. neil: not voting for impeachment. you are voting for noformalized process. >> it's really important for democrats, stand up and say what you are for or against with conviction. we saw this with health care. the democrats tried to vote on health care, then go home and say i didn't really vote for health care. it always helps candidates to have conviction, explain it to their constituents. constituents tend to be understanding of people who have conviction. whatever their reasoning is. i think a lot of these people are afraid of that and should vote their conscience. neil: very good point. you admire someone who gets off the dime and states a position. but where do you see this going?

i'm taking it to the extreme, say the president is ultimately impeached in the house, whether you think that's fair or right, that's where i see it going, but it goes nowhere in the senate. just like the clinton thing. >> there are two reasons democrats should want to get this done especially if it goes to the senate. first, the longer they push this off, the more likely it will be for republicans to be able to say it's an election year, let's leave it up to the voters. we don't need to hold this whole impeachment process. second is that six of the democratic candidates are in the senate so if there is a move -- if impeachment is sent to the senate, that means six of the democratic candidates have to be there instead of on the campaign trail during a very vital point in the campaign. neil: they don't have to be there. it's a good idea. >> it is a good idea. because that's their first and foremost priority. it should be, doing their job as senators. so if they are off the campaign trail, obviously, that's a bad position to be in. if they are on it, people can

say why aren't you doing your job you have now. >> it's pretty hard for them to be away, given the solemn task of potentially removing a president. i think they would have to be there. you mentioned democrats and health care. i think that's -- this is not a fun vote for -- you look at those democrats who won their house seats in 2018, it was not by promising to get rid of the president. it was by talking about health care, talking about issues, setting out a moderate course. so whether they get their arms twisted and show up for nancy pelosi on this vote or not, they are not enjoying this. neil: we will watch very very closely. meantime, everything old is new again or it's right now, really controversial again. samsung, remember the foldable phone? they have another one. yeah. another one. after this.

neil: all right. remember this guy? familiar face on the hot seat. former secretary of state rex tillerson testifying today in the trial going on against exxon. this dates back to his times when he was running exxon as the ceo. jackie deangelis, outside the courthouse with the latest. jackie? reporter: good afternoon, neil. well, the defense just finishing its questioning, its cross-examination of rex tillerson, former ceo of exxon from 2006 to 2016. highly anticipated here but rex tillerson appeared very cool, calm, confident when he took the stand. he was not rattled by the state's questions at all. as a matter of fact, when the defense questioned him and they said true or false, that you lied or defrauded investors, he said false. true or false, that you created an illusion to deceive investors. he also said false.

later, his defense testimony, he talked about the fact that he didn't ever use these climate change costs as a sole determining factor to make an investment decision in a new project. he also said there was a lot of information that was considered to make these final decisions, multiple models and scenarios. finally he said ghg costs were not used for accounting and not used for reserves or resources. let's review what's at issue here. of course, the state is saying exxon deceived investors in terms of its calculation of climate change and deceived shareholders having some sort of impact to the bottom line. this is the martin act, the state fraud statute but there's a lot of problems with the martin act. a lost folt of folks wonder if outdated or even applies here. take a listen. >> based on the evidence that's been presented, we haven't seen any examples of fraud. that's a problem with the martin

act. the martin act is so expansive that the attorney general doesn't even need to prove fraud to prove -- to bring this case. reporter: let me just remind you this is a civil case, not a criminal trial. there was no jury sitting inside. the judge will make the final decision. he also will decide on damages which right now could be as much as $1.6 billion. but the experts are saying what they have seen so far is that the state has not been able to really convincingly show that exxon did anything other than build financial models with several sets of projections and scenarios to try to determine outcomes that it really couldn't project because they're future outcomes. so it will be interesting to see how this plays out. the whole trial expected to be about three weeks long. this is week two right now. but rex tillerson certainly in the hot seat today and certainly was the highlight, the star witness, if you will. back to you. neil: jackie, thank you very much. jackie deangelis. of course this dates back to mr.

t tillerson's days when he was running exxon, not his secretary of state days. stay with us. more after this. driverless cars, or trips to mars. no commission. delivery drones, or the latest phones. no commission. no matter what you trade, at fidelity you'll pay no commission for online u.s. equity trades.

neil: all right.

this is apple earnings day. they come after the bell. we get a lot telegraphed here. iphones are selling, what the guidance is for next year, all that fun stuff. susan li has a lot more. susan? susan: i'm excited. that's right. the world's biggest company, apple, set to report a profit drop later on today after the bell and its guidance will be key since they only had ten days of being able to sell the iphone 11 in their recent quarter. how many iphone 11s will they sell in the all-important holiday period. that's important to watch as well. also, we are hoping for an update on u.s./china trade relations since we know air pods have been tariffed since september. did that impact sales on the wearable. also, if they are not repealed in december, iphones and ipads, that's important, will face 15% tariffs in december if there is no truce, that pulls back some of the increases we are looking at in tariffs on chinese-made goods. also, we are looking for an update on the streaming war, since we know hbo max will be

launching but also this friday, apple tv plus will be cutting the ribbon on their new streaming service as well, $4.99 a month. later on, in just a few weeks' time, we have disney tv. we are hoping for some sort of update on subscribers that might be signing on to this service and finally, wearables. there are huge growth rates in wearables, meaning the watch and also air pods. is that enough to take over and make up for falling iphone sales? it's a fortune 200 company with $16 billion in sales. also today, these air pod pros just went on sale and you know, that's what i have been listening on for the last two minutes. i have to say, the noise canceling feature is pretty good because it's just all you, neil. back to you. neil: there's a goal. the noise canceling thing, is that because it fits snuggly? is that it? susan: yes, the flex fit as well but also the noise canceling feature helps if you're on a

plane. i like the pricing. that's pretty competitive with the bose and the like on the market. neil: i will take your word for it. thank you very much. meanwhile, at & t says hbo max, another streaming service out there for $14.99 a month. back with my panel, james freeman, what do you make of that? >> i'm not a buyer at that price. i think this is a great time to be writing, directing, producing entertainment and seems good for consumers. we are getting all these entrants into the market. but i would be concerned as an investor. you look at the disney offering susan mentioned, it's got the marvel and "star wars" library, looks like formidable competition. neil: i'm looking at the price. netflix is $12.99, amazon, $8.99. disney plus, $6.99. hulu, $5.99. apple, $1.99. on and on we go. i don't know. >> the price is risky but i think people will sign up because hbo has so much original

content that drives pop culture conversation. if you are are on twitter, instagram, a lot of the conversation is about "game of thrones" or other shows that people want to be in on, they want to be able to watch with their friends. neil: but you know, when you have other expenses, i'm thinking of you as a new dad, can you afford this? you can, but i mean start making some calls here because you have a lot of these services. >> the interesting thing is actually, we are basically re-inventing cable except in a less user-friendly way because it's not bundled. i think pretty soon, people will end up spending more on all these different services. neil: people cut the cord and pay more. >> exactly. neil: if you had them all. >> several of these people, hbo will be free to current hbo subscribers, things like that, but at the end of the day, people are going to find shows on all these different channels that they want to watch and the

content has really driven at least the initial subscriber growth but we know people stick around for the library and catalog content. everybody realizes where the future is going. it's just a question of how long people are going to continue doing more traditional broadcast work. neil: my teenaged sons don't watch traditional tv. >> because the model is -- they get you live in person all the time. neil: in the meantime, samsung is at it again with a new -- a new foldable flip phone concept. i guess it opens vertically. is that right? something like that? what do you think of this? >> i do not like this. i thought we moved past this. everyone wanted the razor when it came out but i thought we moved on. i will put it this way. it's like a book and i feel it's awkward and weird and must be strange to have phone calls on. i don't like the shape of it at all. some people may love it. i don't. neil: when i was your age, it opened vertically. that was the big thing.

>> remember the slide-out? neil: that was an abacus. what do you make of this? they are not giving up on this concept. >> i guess i'm not what you would call an early adopter. if my company issues me one i will dutifully use it. neil: otherwise, no? >> i'm not really sure why that's highly important. neil: you are a madman. all right. we will take a quick break. kanye west is getting one heck of a tax refund and he's thanking god for it because god apparently wrote the check. after this. let's take a look at some numbers:

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serious, sometimes fatal crises can occur. the most common side effect is bone and muscle ache. if you'd rather be home ask your doctor about neulasta® onpro. pay no more than $5 per dose with copay card. neil: all right. day two, not going any better really than day one. lawmakers laying into boeing ceo dennis muilenburg during his second day of testimony, this time before house committee. grady trimble following it all in washington.

hey, grady. reporter: hi, neil. muilenburg today admitting that his company made mistakes in the rollout of the 737 max. lawmakers today focusing on the company's culture and whether it let financial pressures drive production and its production timeline of the 737 max plane. they also especially focused on that flight control system that's been to blame at least in part for both of those crashes. muilenburg says he's been held accountable for those crashes. he specifically mentioned he's been stripped of his chairmanship, but at least in a very testy exchange, one lawmaker called that into question. >> you are continuing to work and make $30 million a year, after this horrific two accidents that caused all these people's relatives to go, to disappear, to die. you're not taking a cut in pay at all? >> congressman, again, our board will make those determinations. >> you're not accountable, then. reporter: family members of the victims are here again in the hearing room today.

muilenburg acknowledged as he walked in this morning, he also met with them privately after yesterday's hearing and we are told by the families that's the first time he's done that since both crashes. >> we listened. we talked about our commitment to never letting this happen again, preventing any future accidents like this. it was one thing i wanted to convey to the families. lives literally depend on what we do at the boeing company. reporter: we should note that the house committee that he's meeting in front of today, they are conducting their own investigation into boeing. they say a lot of them, not just the company, is to blame but that the regulatory process needs to change, which includes faa oversight. neil? neil: thank you, grady. charles payne with us right now, "making money" host. i do want to talk to you about interest rates, what could happen in about 15 minutes or so. but on this boeing thing, are muilenburg's days numbered? charles: i'm not sure. i thought they were, but i'm no

longer sure. you know, i think they mismanaged this whole thing from the very beginning. when the lion air crash happened and wall street sort of, you know, said hey, you know, sort of a one-off, i thought they should have been more contrite then, then the stories we've heard since then, it's tough, particularly in this environment where we are being told capitalism is bad, where elizabeth warren and bernie sanders are making huge strides. if some of these stories are true about saving ten bucks on a screw or you know, moving some of these seasoned engineering jobs from america to outside this country to save money, those kind of things, it's not good. it's obviously bad. now, the company is going to be okay because it's an amazing company and they are in a field that's growing by leaps and bounds but someone just talked about the board, the ceo talked about the board of directors. the board, these boards need to do a lot more. this is one of the big problems i think is that these boards that rubber-stamp everything and allow these situations to go

from bad to worse, i'm not sure why. i would love to see these boards take a stronger stance without being pushed into a corner by some trillion dollar money manager. neil: when you say you don't recall or you weren't there, you bragged prior that you were hands-on, which he was and is a very hands-on detail-oriented manager, then to say you were unaware, it just doesn't help your cause. charles: it really does not. so for me, i think he will survive, because the stock held in there yesterday, it's doing okay today, and you will probably see a string of announcements. they made a promise, by the way, he reiterated a promise the 737 will be checked off by major aviation agency, presuming that's the faa, before the end of this year. that might be the last measuring stick for him at least as far as the board and wall street is concerned. neil: they have already stripped him of the charman title. real quickly on the fed today, the assumption is a quarter point cut. is that what you're looking at? then what? charles: then what is the big question. it's been a long time since we have gone into one of these

things with a big question on then what. i'm just worried about jay powell. he has botched these things. he's got to find a way to articulate to the folks asking the questions and the street watching in a lot better way. in some ways it was better when the fed didn't try to do this, you know, there was every other meeting, before that there was no meetings, now they insist on doing a q & a every time. i think it makes their job harder to do as they are reacting to expectations not just from wall street but also from consumers. by the way, consumers, they are expecting inflation at the lowest levels in decades. that's putting more pressure on him. neil: we'll watch very closely because it all falls in your hour. thank you, my friend. in the meantime, general electric shares are soaring today. i know that might sound a little crazy. ge, soaring. yes. we will tell you why, after this. [ sigh ] not gonna happen.

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or visit kohlerwalkinbath.com for more info. neil: all right. kanye west receiving a $68 million tax refund. he's not thanking the irs. he's thanking god. >> last year i made $115 million and still ended up $35 million in debt. this year, i looked up and i just got $68 million returned to me on my tax return. and people say oh, don't talk about these numbers. no, people need to hear someone that has been put into debt by the system talk about these kind of numbers now that there's service to christ. neil: brooke? >> it might explain why he has been more supportive of the republican party, he's seen some benefit from tax cuts. he did thank god for them. neil: the year before would have

been a trump year, too. >> yeah. i'm not exactly sure how that would help. maybe he needs better accountants but he did thank god for it but i'm sure the u.s. government was probably a little taken aback by. i think this is great and he got all this money back and he's been talking a lot about god lately and maybe he should take a page from matthew 19 and give some to the poor. neil: whoa! listen to you. well, david, maybe the candidates have ideas for that. he's an interesting guy. he was on the brink of financial disaster and he's back, i'm just going on his word here, that he goes from famine to feast again. what do you make of it? >> well, i think, you know, one of the reasons we are so fascinated with kanye is because he's a paradox and refuses to kind of -- >> riddle wrapped in an enigma. >> exactly. he put out another great album and he remains one of the great

musical talents i think of this century, the first part of it, at least, and you know, he's challenging the way people think about things. i think a lot of people are, you know, up at arms about his support of trump but -- neil: he's his own man. >> it almost seems in some ways a piece of performance art to challenge people in how they think about things. i don't actually believe his support of trump is really genuine. color me a little skeptical. i think it's -- neil: you have a problem believing anyone who supports. >> no, look, i know there are a lot of supporters out there. neil: running around with your little maga hit. >> good for him. i'm happy he got a $68 milli million -- i hope he does give some to charity. he played a big role in criminal justice reform. they did real serious genuine work on that issue. a lot of people just talk about it and tweet about it. neil: what do you make of all this? >> if i get a $68 million

refund, i too will be thanking god. it is beautiful music he's putting out and i think it's going to be interesting to see what crowd he attracts with this message about god and jesus and is this going to pull in a mainstream crowd, maybe attract some people, repel others. it should be interesting because obviously, this is not a staple of pop music. neil: you know, i was saying i saw david letterman on this netflix show, interviewed him, it's a fascinating show. but the interview with him was very revealing. there's a lot of depth to him, lot of smarts, the business stuff notwithstanding, but he has a very good kind of feeling for what's happening in our world. it's kind of weird. >> he does, and also, i think he's breaking a lot of taboos on his struggles with bipolar, which a lot of people are

dealing with these challenges. one in five americans deals with a mental illness and it's not out there, so he's breaking a lot of stigma in doing that. he's a designer and he's made huge headway in designing and is really sophisticated there. he got into that not knowing anything about it. >>. neil: even on the letterman show, his wife, we don't really have to go into that, honey, but he did. >> he's a real american success story in a lot of ways. he's done more things than i think he ever thought was possible growing up in chicago. neil: not too shabby. i would be remiss if i didn't do the big story a few minutes away, the federal reserve. i'm more interested in whether powell in his remarks, we know the president zings him, but i like to think powell in his own sort of quiet way zings the president. he always likes to talk this 10, 11-year recovery, you can thank the federal reserve. clearly, zinging the president saying it didn't start with you. how do you think he handles this? >> yeah.

i think he does look for subtle ways to assert independence. neil: passive-aggressive. >> maybe some of that. it's a delicate game he has there. i think it's also interesting to see what he says about the economy, because we think of this as largely his moment to tell us about the course of interest rates, but obviously, they get a lot of valuable data and very early data, and his read on the economy and how soft it is or robust it is, i think will be interesting. neil: we all have a feeling he knows, right, i'm sure he gets tired of the attack lines, so he will zing back. you expect him to zing back? >> again, more subtle ways and i think maybe if he were as active on twitter as trump were, it would become a twitter feed. but yeah, i think he kind of finds ways to subtly undermine trump a little bit every time that he makes an announcement like this. we'll see. neil: he would not be reappointed, would he?

>> not by this president, i would imagine. but who would he appoint? trump seems to have a problem -- maybe it's me out there. i do think powell's standing up is very important. it's the last institution that hasn't been totally undermined. i think he's standing for something important by not being on twitter. neil: we shall see. final word. want to thank you all. great job. we've gotten very hip in this hour. >> i'm improving. driverless cars, or trips to mars. no commission. delivery drones, or the latest phones. no commission. no matter what you trade, at fidelity you'll pay no commission for online u.s. equity trades.

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while. what is getting a lot of attention, jerome powell hinting at future. guidance on bated breath for that. dow down about 10 1/2 point. charles payne will take you through a very busy hour. charles: very busy hour. thank you very much, neil. i'm charles payne, this is making money. breaking right now we're moments away what the central bank will do with interest rates. we're expecting a quarter point rate cut. this is the their time in three months. at 2:30 we'll hear from chairman jerome powell on the state of the economy and global growth conditions. investors like will insight to the big question what is the fed's path forward. we have word and phrases that will move the market. stocks are flat despite the fact u.s. economic growth, came in faster than expected last quarter. that is thanks to very strong consumer spending big time. we saw a huge boost in residential investment. homeownership at highest level

since 2014. commerce department says that the gdp grew at seasonally adjusted annual rate at 4.9% last quarter. big news going into this. edward lawrence. at the federal reserve live now. reporter: federal reserve cut the benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point. it is 1 1/2 to 1.75%. the rate cuts come on a global slow down they say. they say muted inflation. the fed does signal in the statement a pause for future rate cuts. the federal reserve statement changes words from act as appropriate, to assess. now the changes make, part of that sentence that makes that big change, says this, quote, it assesses the appropriate path of target range for the federal funds rate. that is going forward. the statement says that the labor market remains strong. consumer spending is rising at a strong pace. the fed also sees business investment and