tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business December 21, 2019 6:00am-6:31am EST
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ahead. i'm jack ought her. we begin with what we think are the most three most important things that investors should be think about right now. what's ahead for boeing after suspending 737 maxon how will the stocks fair? they go to pre-2008 levels. in the secure act is going to be loud bring sweeping changes that will affect retirees and savers. on the barron's roundtable tonight my colleagues ben levinson, rush mcfadyen jack cao. jacko start with you. really tough week for boeing. so it announced its suspension of 737 max, and on friday, space capsule did not like it were supposed to be. >> gets a pass on the space stuff. there's a reason why when something is easy, say it's not reich@encinas because actual rocket science is hard. so we are not going to ding boeing there. but it's a much bigger thing on the production halt. you know the thing on cell
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cycle for aircraft are very large gray decades, so the fact that it's halting is a temporary halt is not a big deal the scheme of things. however, i think it's an open question for investors at a very fair question to say is this really a halt? is this temporary? are we going to reach a.where the 3737 max returns to service impute customers are happy in every thing is okay. twenty years ago when you booked a flight, you might've called a travel agent, you might've had no idea what kind of plane you're going on. today do it on your phone. all the details are right there. 737 max is now a brand. i don't know how you solve that problem if your boeing? >> and i've read the suspension of production could ding the economy because boeing is the largest expert order in this country. it gets courts from all over the country. it's a big problem. >> if you're an investor, first off you're an american consumer and of course that they make a way to make these
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things safe. if you are looking for an investor to buy a stock, this is not a stock falling apart. it's up 1% here did year-to-date. that tells you why this stock market is great. i would wait for more clarity. i just need to know exactly what's going on. this be a thing is connect huck take the stock falling and actually get the company to do something. >> if they say we need a clean sheet design ub disaster. you know or things stand. jack: it took about 13 years for this key bank stocks to clots way back from its prerecession high. barron's had a cover story back in june saying we like bank stock, so far according to script and you are still there. >> has been pretty managing this to watch this year because around units when that story ran, everybody hated banks. the fed was cutting interest rates, we were worried about the strength of the economy. also things are terrible for banks.
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it's just awful. now some banks arts railing because the fed, you know what they're gonna stop cutting rates in the economy, maybe it's getting better. and finally got a rally of the banks that put them pretty much on level with the s&p for right now. jack: explained the s&p what that means her bank socks. >> so what happened is the banks are borrowing short and they are lending long. and so they are different they are making is really what the profit is. and when that prophet, when that's coming together, the profit is shrinking. >> the swing long-term and short-term bonds. >> so when it's coming down the margin is shrinking it fits whiting they're making more profit. so as long as the yield keeps steeping, as long as the economy looks like it's going to continue to exhilarate, bank stock should still do okay. >> so you're still bullish? i'm so bullish. here's a start with a lot of attentions congress passed the secure acts. tells about that. what's a secure xl about.
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>> personnel that's a bipartisan bill which is unusual these days. so it's basically a lot of small measures, that might help retirees. it's in different ways but package together which makes it the pig is. trish: tired legislation a decade. there are some provisions that help increase access to workplace pans which is the how the majority. >> that the 4o1k types. >> of their people in the workplace do not have access to this type of planet the bill allows small companies to reduce their costs and allows them to get plans together at laos some part-time workers to contribute to the 4o1k plan. >> you questions about the retired minimum distribution thing, and it's not importantly 70 and a half and then you're very important. >> that is very important method half birthday is really throwing people off so now if you are, you don't have to take them out to your 72. >> explained that to this rule for those of don't have to the rule is when you have to take
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things out of his retirement plan when he had that date whether you need or not. >> exactly that's a certain percentage in your penalize if you don't do. so now 72 is the first day if you if you did a half a year you missed out on that extra time. that's one aspect of things. and they also removed the aged kat. putting into iras. so people are working longer and they want to continue contributor to the third thing we got a lot of questions about it's a stretch ira. it's a popular estate planning still for affluent retirees. you are allowed to leave your ira to an error and they have their entire lifetime to use that account. it's not tenuous. >> and let's briefly mention this new provision that gives companies more latitude to put annuities in 401ks. was it helpful? >> while supposed to provide guaranteed income. >> at that's a really a problem within running out of money. >> the bad is that it can open up the door to all kinds of
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annuities. the academics like low-cost, simple, and cohen annuities this doesn't help that. >> there's no cap on the fees? there are some whoppers on those fees. >> exactly the employer's cell fiduciary and the product to sell their planned. >> which means they're responsible for the retirees. coming up now is a time to look for value in international markets within. the panel debates it. but first barron's exclusive interview with one of the most
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of barron's this week. i went to boston to get his insights. here's our conversation. so peter you are investing philosophy is often summed up as by what you know. and there's some truth to that and that's often so oversimplified. can you explain what you did mean by that? what you did mean? >> that bothers me that people are very dangerous when they invest. if you play the market. that's a dangerous term. but if you do some work, do some research, neutron, look at the balance sheet, you can get fairly close to 16, you find out this company has lots of debt, no debt, they are in trouble. so a little bit of research part people are more careful their fridge bear they should take a vacation else at $510,000 to spark a bus for a party, that's dangerous. 's t8 sony say by what you know, you talk about the regular investor might be able to get an inside and vantage by sticking to an industry that he is familiar with or
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seeing something that he realizes a great product. >> imagine if you are in a mall the last 50 years. losing gap when it's hot we were we've seen things when they are hot. people weren't excited about gap anymore, then you do some research and say g there's a lot of limited stores, but only 20. and then they go to 400. so you see a company, i don't do all the local company or do all the stop & shop. people are showing up, or they'd just looking at knowns anymore's anymore. that's research. that's fundamentals. you don't leave the mall and buy that day, you have to do some more work. jack: that's the important. so today, there are so much information everywhere. information overload. does that make it harder for active investors? the indexers say that everyone's got access to the same information at the same time, you can't beat the bucket. >> will you beat the in indexes you avoid the stocks that are down. you'd avoid the steel companies in the oil companies and sears, and pennies, and
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the companies that are deteriorating. companies are dynamic. you get behind every stock there's a company. use light lottery tickets. so you're trying to find the companies with in that are doing better. they go from crappy to semi- crappy to good. but they take a couple years. you try to avoid the companies that are going south. that's how you beat the market. or you find something that's outside better great companies. carmax was not in the s&p and they went up. some answer and then they have great performances. jack: now while people when they're lucky enough or smart enough to get a company going up. they take their profits. and you made the case in the booklet you should actually hang in there with the really great stocks and we've got a call for more and buffet as a result. >> in 1989 i was at home my phone rings and my daughter six drove and he picked it up and she said there's a mr. buffet on the line. i pick it up thinking it's a joke and it said this is warren buffett i read your
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book and now about seven seconds. and i said that's great, i'd love to do. but what's the line. he said i love this i wait to do it. sell your great companies and add some losers. it's like water in the weeds. [inaudible] he said i want to put it in the if you come to nebraska come see me your name will be metal over nebraska. jack: dig a column. >> yes submit it with him several times a great guy. jack: this is might be irrelevant but ten years into a bowl market, i think you said more money has been lost in anticipating a downturn that in the downturn. can you explain? >> obviously the markets have gone up tenfold see them make more money on the upside. reminds me a lot ten years now 20 years now, 30 years now prine trying to break the market is really a waste. i don't know what it's gonna do. it can go down, when i ran in
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13 i had a perfect record. i want more than 10% every time. when the market went down i went on more. but over the long-term the upside is more than the downside. so if joy need the money in the next month? so i need the money next year? drive kids going to college of a wedding coming up? then your bad investor. if you keep putting money year to five, ten, 15, 20, 25 years you should do well. 's. jack: one thing weren't nice to talk a lot about appearances secular in the market. there's so much disruption there certain industries they may be cheap and they could just be getting cheaper. even the audit industry, very low, maybe the market sees something. you think secular changes is moving more rapidly now than it did in the 80s when you are running money? >> no i thought excel industry deteriorate i saw the stocks go down i saw industries go
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away. industries can go from terrific to terrible. it's a great expression that help me a lot. the texel industry. it's always darkest before pitch black. just three things are terrible, they get terrible squared. so just because getting bad does not mean the reason to invest. wait for them to get better. again, somebody might be involved in this they may be involved in iron ore. they might get involved in plastics. delsea a woman pick up before i that's a cyclical turnaround. that's my last two or three years. you might see it way before washington sees it. jack: one broad area that you said might be interesting as energy. and it's very unloved on wall street right now. what you see in that? >> 1 million barrels a day. were concerned about a hundred real men barrels a day. 1million each way. so if the economy stays okay, and the shale wells, you do a thousand dollars a day the first month, year later their 300. wow. and then there 150.
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so it's a real turnover. right now there is no ipos, there's no bond market, the banks went out. everybody wants out. shale is get a slowdown. steve guy thanks shale is going to keep growing two to 3 million barrels a day. left a five-man barrels in the u.s. for 12 and a half. don him it's going to change though. jack: peter think every much. coming up what you can do to improve your portfolio. but first, is it time to look for value in international ♪
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markets? joining roundtable to discuss is head of trading strategies is benet. thanks much for joining us been a makeable case for international stocks. >> is not the bull case, but the case of being invested and diversified at all times. this is something we repeat at nasim to our clients and advisors. second, tactically add to the markets that have suffered the most, especially following the trade were over the last two years. emerging equities in particular have underperformed the u.s. markets and total return by about 30%. and then risk manage the portfolio. this de- globalization train has left the station all right? and you have to. >> is a coming back. >> i don't think so but if it does that's fantastic. if it isn't coming back, do you have to in the biggest domestic oriented market in the world u.s. and shinar the
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most foremost and the best risk manager portfolio. you have to have strategies for regular people with the right size. jack: there is a lot, how are you seeing it. >> there's a lot of stimulus in the world which is great for emerging markets. we are seeing china's economy and the big question is does this hold up even if we see escalation and the oslo said china trade? there's a de-escalation at the moment. jack: if you look at the index, it's up 3435% this year. but as we have escalated the trade were, these are trading stocks. so the difference of that 300 and china is consumer. [inaudible] it's a domestic orientation and a markets are doing we expect them to do. jack: so other emerging
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markets, how do you break that down? we also make the.is not one big market. brazil is very different from brazil and turkey and so forth. >> i think china is the star in the show right now. and it's just another reason not to necessarily invest in a broad index fund. it really makes the case for active managers to go wait in fine consumer stocks, and doesn't better benefit. jack: what about europe? >> europe is more threatened like if we have a real escalation of the trade were. the countries are most exposer central europe, south korea, we look at the market very poorly. so china's okay, to the extent that is domestically focused. so obviously there's a lot of value there, but his were brushing its recession is a speak, things are looking up for everybody just a bit. that's a very good for everybody. and staying diversified is really important. jack: so what you say to
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someone who looks of the portfolio and says look i've been in the u.s. stocks for the last ten years, i'd be golden if i had all these others that are making me money or losing money. >> 's own foreign stocks for 20 years and it outweighs the u.s. but that's not a good answer. even in your like last year, okay, percent and you have 50% and european equities and 50% the s&p. if rebalance a 5050 at the end of every much. you outperform the s&p. >> one more thing to ask about is japan. >> at the bullets evaluation and the response, the increase in tax again which is usually the end of the game for them. three years they've written offer for years. but this time i think they have learned their lesson and they have the intervention. and the valuation of the market is very attractive. it's ba thank you very much if
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rolled out its peacock to celebrate this new thing called color television. you write this week that the peacock is coming to an end. we are going to learn about the streaming service it's a new streaming service from comcast about mid-january, generally 16th again to give this details on it. we arty know so the things around appeared we know free shows, i know ben is passionate about battle star galactica, "saved by the bell", punky brewster,
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especially, look, no one is going to expect the peacock against the streaming service of the netflix nsaid is the world beater. but we think it might be free and ad supported that's well differentiated. i think for investors it's going to start to reinforce just how wealth comcast is doing in other areas like its cable service and is broadband service generates a lot of cash stock looks good. >> even gets actionable ideas what you have missed. international. china's largest 935 million customers earnings are improving its 5g is rolled out. it's one of the cheapest large-cap companies out there, three times. and ben, you're sticking with banks. >> i'm sticking with banks, bank of america, it's looking very interesting now it's gained a lot, but if you look at it compared to j.p. morgan, j.p. morgan is about two points more expensive on expensive on the basis. bank of america has more room
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to run to catch up. >> very good ideas thanks guys to check out more check out barron's.com and offered follows on twitter, barron's online. that's all for us, see you next week on barron's banks, scott perry, have a terrific weekend everybody maria is next. maria: happy weekend everyone, welcome to the program. it analyzes the week that wasn't helps position you for the week ahead. i maria and thanks for joining us. coming up in just a few minutes mice special guests the nfl's chief marketing officer is here. to talk about the league's marketing strategy leading up to the big game. the super bowl in february. and then later in the program the cofounders of welby park appeared talking to me about the changing face of a eyewear and how they created this incredible startup called war be parker. but first investors shrugged off impeachment news this
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