fed. it serves you well. lauren: lot of optimism on the set this morning. everything is looking nice on this first day of the new decade. thank you, liz, jeff, danielle, for spending the morning with me, filling in for maria bartiromo. that does it for us. "varney & company" is up next. stuart, take it away. stuart: good morning, lauren. happy new year. good morning, everyone. is this the roaring '20s? sure looks that way on this, the first day of trading in 2020. of course, we are coming off a spectacular 2019 and a bull market that's run on for more than a decade. can it keep going? okay. goldman sachs says the economy is nearly recession-proof. that's good. trade guy peter navarro says the dow will hit 32,000 in 2020. i call that optimistic. look at this. at the opening bell this morning we are going up big-time. new records all across the board. the dow industrials up, what, 170, maybe. the s&p a whopping great gain,

20 points there. look at that nasdaq. huge gain last year, up maybe another 76 points as of today. i've got two more items that are helping the market as of now. china will free up over $100 billion worth of new stimulus money, and president trump signs phase one of the china trade deal in d.c. on january 15th. he will go to beijing later this year for a face-to-face with xi jinping for phase two. all good news. what a great way to start the new year. roaring '20s? we will see. "varney & company" is about to begin. stuart: there is this. i'm going to call this a positive. iran-backed militia retreating following days of attacks on our embassy in baghdad. you can see them loading up the stuff to take it away. the siege had trapped american diplomats overnight in the

embassy. i'm going to call that an iranian retreat. let's bring in market watcher gary kaltbaum. look, i'm calling it a retreat, gary. you think that's another positive for the market? because i do. >> you know, when it happened, it wasn't a negative. i'm not so sure it's a big positive. let's just say it doesn't hurt. we have had momentum for the last two or three months so as we head into the new year, there's a lot of cash on the sideline. you now have china with another $100 billion of stimulus. you add it all up together, we are continuing the bull market we had and let me just say a sensational bull market last year. stuart: it really was. i can't remember a year quite like it, maybe the late 1990s, it was about the same, certainly on the nasdaq. but look, is it okay to say we are starting the roaring '20s or is that getting a bit ahead of our skis? >> i think ahead of very big skis. look, i'm all for it, i hope the

markets keep going up, but we know that markets do get bearish every now and then, they do pull back. i promise you, we will have another bear market again eventually. i don't know when. all i can tell you right now is semiconductors and financials are leading the market and when that happens, the market usually is in good stead and you have just so much liquidity by the central banks around the globe. you know that old line i don't like cliches but don't fight the fed has been around forever and they are going insane with the liquidity. that's good news for now. stuart: dow up 22% last year, nasdaq up 34%, s&p up 28%. would you be rash, gary, and say we could match those gains this year? >> anything's possible, but the good news with those numbers, the bad news with those numbers. if you think about it, that's about three years of return in one year. usually there's a comeuppance. i'm not in that camp.

doesn't matter what i think is going to happen in 2020. we will just continue to stay with the major trend and as long as the major trend stays up, we will hang with it. right now, technology and financials and you have never had a bad market when those two areas are leading. stuart: stay there, please. got another thing for you in just a moment. i've got a seasonal story for our viewers right now. today is the big day for holiday gift returns. it's the biggest day of the year for returns. retail watcher who has guided us through 2019, michael zakkore is with us today. in total, you are telling me $46 billion worth of stuff will be returned? >> yeah. stuart: that's huge. >> huge number. but you have to take it in the context of the total holiday spend. this was talking about records this year, this year set a record for holiday spending, $1 trillion. stuart: a trillion. >> first trillion dollar holiday season on record. so the $46 billion relatively speaking against a trillion

dollar spend is about what was expected. stuart: okay. we are going to correct that in a second. we will make it $41.6 billion worth of returns. six of one, half dozen of the other. who takes the hit? if there's all that stuff going back, who takes the hit from that? >> yeah. the retailers take the hit, so to speak, but most have filled that in as a cost of doing business. when they are doing their financials, they know there's going to be an x percentage of returns. stuart: a lot of returns are going back to online sellers. they make it easy for you. >> that's right. it's really the online sellers absorbing much more of the return hit. in fact, ups estimates that starting today, they are expected to handle $1.9 million packages daily in returns. what you see is a lot of consumers buy three, four, five different things, they try them on, they don't like it, they return it, and so that happens, too, with people who are receiving the gifts. stuart: back to this holiday

period, i was not aware that this was the first trillion dollar holiday season. that's astonishing. up how much from the previous year? >> that was up, got to check my number on that, i think it was roughly 15% over last year. stuart: 15%. >> yeah. i believe so. stuart: that would be the biggest gain in holiday sales compared to the previous year that i can ever remember. >> yeah. it was a banner year. stuart: was most of that online? >> no. the majority of it -- stuart: that's the wrong word to use, most of it. the amazons of this world, did they see the biggest gains? >> yeah, online is definitely the driver, right. but we often talk about when i'm on, it's really now not online versus offline. it's just commerce. there's more commerce. so that combination of allowing people to buy online, pick up in store and giving consumers the option to buy anywhere, any time, any way they want, that's driven consumer sales. stuart: hold on a second. gary kaltbaum is still with us. you were listening to that.

a trillion dollar holiday selling season. that took me by surprise. how about you? >> stuart, it's called the wealth effect. it's called 3.5% unemployment. it's called markets soaring around the globe, people feeling more wealthy, they will attempt to spend. by the way, as far as the returns, let me give you a positive. people have to go back in the stores with the product to return a lot of things. guess what they are going to do at the stores? buy something else. it's not really the worst of all worlds and the gentleman is right. most of these companies know almost down to the penny what percentages will go back so they are ready for it. stuart: there's another record for you. gary, thank you very much indeed. let's look forward to a great year. michael, you forecasting 2020 as a year for retailers? >> i think it will be a very strong retail year. stuart: again? >> again. i think we are going to see high consumer confidence. i think the spending's going to continue. i think it's going to be another year of disruption and change as

well. i think we are going to see department stores and malls continue to decline, but we are going to see online continue to grow. and you know, this might be the year that stalwarts like sears and jc penney finally breathe their last. stuart: only time will tell. okay. great stuff. michael, thanks very much for joining us. appreciate it. all right. check apple. we will check some of the individual stocks which are at, near or heading towards record highs. apple to start with, $296. poised for more gains at the opening bell. $296 on apple. that's premarket. how about microsoft? $159 was the high last week. it just got above that a little bit. $159.01. that is premarket, up about $1.30 as we speak. some big moves here. look at tesla. it retreated last week, just a little, after reaching new highs earlier that week. now it's back up again. premarket, up nearly 2%. $426 on tesla.

wow. that's some move. the fda may ban most e-cigarette pod flavors. susan li back with us. what have you got? susan: happy new year. this only applies to pods, the cartridge-based vaping e-cigarette pods. this would not apply to tank vaping systems commonly found in vape shops where they mix their own flavors in the back. this is a compromise between the trump administration and small businesses but if you ban most of these flavored pods, that represents $9 billion in sales each and every year for the likes of juul, and reynolds. juul getting ahead of this legislation, they knew this was coming, they actually already stopped selling mint flavored cartridges and cycled to menthol because that's not banned. tobacco menthol flavored are still allowed. however, you can also apply to add on these flavors in the future but you have to tell the fda why you are doing that for a specific reason. stuart: interesting. altria, up this morning on that news. all right. check futures overall. we've got another rally on our hands. at the opening bell this morning, which will be the first

trading day of 2020, we are up 100 for the dow, 150, 17 for the s&p, 70 for the nasdaq. that's a rally. the trump campaign has raised a staggering $46 million in the last three months of last year. that completely dwarfs any donation hauls by the democrats. $46 million for the president. joe biden about coal miners on the debate stage. listen to it again. roll it. >> would you be willing to sacrifice some of that growth even knowing potentially that it could displace thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of blue collar workers -- >> the answer is yes. stuart: okay. he will sacrifice them. wait until you hear what he's now saying about those coal miners. we are of course going to tell you. again, iran backed militia retreating following days of attacks on our embassy in baghdad. the 82nd airborne heads to kuwait or at least some of them do. we are following that story for you. more "varney & company" on this, the first trading day of 2020.

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stuart: as we said, i'm going to use the word retreat. i'm saying that the iranian-backed militia retreated after days of attacks on our embassy in baghdad. now, take a quick look at this. this is a headline from foxnews.com. u.s. air strikes in the mideast sending this clear message to friends and foes alike. i guess that message is don't mess with america. james carafano wrote that headline and james joins us now. tell us why did they retreat? was it the threat of more air strikes? >> yeah, we don't know. i got the same information that you have. all we know is what we, the reporting we got on the ground. we have seen two things -- a couple things. one, we see the iraqi government come out and say they are going to take responsibility. we have seen photos of iraqi security forces deploying. we see at least 100 u.s. marines move into the compound and more on the way. then we see these guys leave. that's all we know. stuart: okay, but could we say

that president trump is most unwilling to go to war in a military engagement with iran? he will take precautions but won't go to war? is that the message here, too? >> i think that's right. i think that's very consistent with this president, where he doesn't -- he doesn't respond to provocations. on the other hand, you touch an american citizen or soldier, the u.s. takes an action but the actions tend to be proportional response, essentially retaliating for that, not in an escalatory way and in a sense warning if you escalate, we will respond to that. we have seen this in north korea, we have seen this in iran and we have seen it in other situations as well, syria. the president is actually pretty consistent in the way he deals with crises and none of them have escalated. this is a three-year track record on the part of the president. stuart: he wants to box iran in and let them sort it out amongst themselves inside iran. he's actually encouraging revolt, isn't he? >> well, you have a very important point. he has boxed them in a very

tight box. if you look all the things iranians have tried the last three years, close the straits, harass the shipping, shoot down a drone, attack saudi infrastructure, they are not escalatory, just different things of a kind the iranians are trying, trying to find something to kind of crack the u.s. resolve. in every instance, the u.s. counterstrikes, countermoves and the iranians stop and try something else. stuart: what a story. got to talk to you about hong kong. mass protests continued over the new year holiday. hundreds were arrested, by the way. it seems to me, james, the people of hong kong are showing remarkable resilience in the face of a declining economy and tough tactics by the police. they are still out there. >> yeah, i don't know what "time" magazine was thinking but the people of venezuela and the people of hong kong who continue to demonstrate and push for their freedoms, despite the fact that they have had almost no progress in that for over a year, are just remarkable testaments to human resilience and desire for freedom and liberty. stuart: what did "time" magazine

say? i missed that. >> they named some 12-year-old person the person of the year. unbelievably resilient protesters in iran, in iran, in hong kong, in venezuela, who just continue to advocate for their rights, even though they know nobody's coming. the calvary is not coming. it's unbelievable. stuart: i am surprised at hong kong because it's very much a business community. it's a dynamic enterprise. when that economy there starts to sink a little, and it has sunk a little, i was expecting middle class hong kong folks to back off of it. but they haven't. >> i would have thought this would have died out months ago. what we are really going to see this play out is in the upcoming election where i think we will see an incredibly strong rebuke of china and the chinese government, and a very strong vote for the people that want to have governance of themselves in taiwan. stuart: xi jinping still has a big problem. does he not. james carafano, thank you, sir. happy new year. see you soon.

check futures. going to be a nice day, certainly a nice opening bell today. we will be up about 150 for the dow industrials. we are going to be within striking distance of 29,000. how about that. then we have this. the national average for a gallon of gas as of right now, $2.58 per gallon. obvious question, susan. i call that a low price. will it stay low this year? susan: that's what's expected. gas buddy says for 2020 we are looking at gas prices to average around $2.60 a bagallon. in 2018, remember how much you were paying at the highest back then? stuart: four bucks. susan: it was $4.11. we haven't crossed through $3 a gallon since 2014. this is spurring the purchase of big vehicles, suvs accounting for half of the car sales last year in 2019. now, the top cities to buy gas, will not surprise you. top ten have three california cities. california usually the top --

the highest price, where you have to pay close to five bucks in some places, especially san francisco. but if you think about it, if you have low gas prices, this is helping the consumer and the american household which then helps the u.s. economy since they power about two-thirds of it. stuart: doesn't do much good for the electric car market. susan: no, it doesn't. however, that is a transition especially if you are getting government subsidies which effectively lowers the price per car you are paying. stuart: i think the government subsidies or tax breaks have come to an end. susan: today, january 1st. yes. january 2nd, no longer getting that $7500 tax credit back on any tesla or electric vehicles. stuart: despite that, tesla way up this morning. susan: china. china. stuart: that's the story. you got it. thank you, susan. take a look at futures again. we keep pounding this because we are going to have another big rally on the first trading day of 2020. 150 for the dow, 18, s&p, 70 for the nasdaq. still going up. former nissan chief carlos ghosn on the run after fleeing

japan. wait until you hear how he escaped. we'll be right back. plastic.

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stuart: on the campaign trail, this just coming at us, julian castro is officially out of the 2020 race. he didn't raise much money and

did not score highly in the polls. julian castro, out of the 2020 race. the saga of former nissan chief carlos ghosn and his escape from japan, that's still making headlines. where do we start? susan: start with the latest news, that lebanon has received interpol arrest warrants for ghosn but there's no extradition treaty between lebanon and japan, so it will be unlikely that lebanon actually fulfills this request. but there are so many plot twists and intrigue as to how ghosn got out of japan. stuart: how did he do it? susan: there are so many reports out there but one suggests that ghosn, who was under house arrest in tokyo, he invited a band to come play music for him and afterwards, he was smuggled out in one of those large bass cases, an instrument case. as a man being of shorter stature, maybe he could have fitted into one. however, he also took a private jet, according to a lot of people, and flew from the airport which was six hours away

from tokyo to get to lebanon eventually via turkey. stuart: good story. stay on it. we are on this story. the roaring '20s. starting as of this morning, we are going up again. 100 points for the dow, maybe 140, 17 s&p, 69 for the nasdaq. back with the rally after this.

stuart: moments away from the opening bell on this, the first trading day of 2020. scott martin, susan li both helping me cover this momentous event. scott, to you first. a terrific rally late last year. did you see it holding on way into 2020? >> i do. i think the rally gets a little bit to use a word tougher, say, in 2020 because i think there's external factors. certainly geopolitically as we have seen just the last couple weeks, but also coming up to that little tiny event in november here with the presidential election, so i do believe the market goes up this year. i think we do have some nice big rallies but expect big pullbacks as presidential election fear comes up. stuart: that election is a problem. susan: fourth best decade in a century and china, by the way, is now injecting liquidity and money into its own economy to try to liquidate and get it

going against. that's positive from a global stance. china, the second largest economy in the world is doing that, you can imagine the money flows across its borders. stuart: $115 billion right into the economy right there. you can hear them clapping and cheering. it is 9:30 and trading in 2020 has now begun. let's have a look where we are right from the get-go. we are up 118 points, that's what i've got at the moment. when all those stocks open we will bring it to you. show me the s&p 500, please. i believe that is also, guaranteed that's on the upside. dow is up 114. the s&p, what have we got for that, please? can we see? yeah, we are up about half a percentage point. that's a rally. look at the nasdaq. the nasdaq had a terrific year last year. i think it was up about 34%. it's now above 9,000. whether that's a new mark, i'm not sure, but 9,000 on the nasdaq is an extraordinary headline. all-time high for apple. you're looking at it, $295.76 as

we speak, up a couple bucks. how about microsoft? it was at $159 and change late last week. it's $158.72 now. so no new high at this point on microsoft. scott, the big tech companies, i'm thinking particularly of apple and microsoft and alphabet and amazon, are they going to keep on going up the way they did last year? >> yes. i believe they will, stuart. for a couple reasons. one is because money managers, mutual funds, a lot of investment companies own these stocks and so therefore as money flows into the market, they have to buy these stocks to fill out some of those orders. secondarily, probably most importantly, fundamentally these companies are clicking on all cylinders. you mentioned a couple names already. you can take your pick. think about how much apple is part of our life these days. certainly amazon. certainly microsoft, especially in the business community. these are companies that are integrated so explicitly into the u.s. economy and even the global economy, we see that in the free cash flow numbers they post quarter after quarter.

that's why you should own them. stuart: in the interest of full disclosure here, everybody knows, i say it every time i'm on the air that yes, i own a thin sliver of microsoft. i have to tell you that i sold a little bit more than half of my microsoft late last week. it was down at $159. was that a foolish move? susan: well, i think you have done very well over the past, what, decade or so holding microsoft. i think the stock of the decade, definitely the stock of last year as well, so combined valuation with apple and microsoft is over $2 trillion, not bad. but there are more trends to propel these stocks higher this year, for instance, cloud computing continues to grow and become everyday part of our lives, especially with the internet of things, your fridge being connected to your wifi and everything else. also, 5g will be becoming a reality later this year. there's a lot more trends that might push the stocks even higher from here. stuart: you are saying it was a foolish move, you should never have gotten out at $159? susan: my question would be what

did you use that money to do? >> buy us something. stuart: i put it into cash late last week. i haven't decided where it's going to go. wait a second, scott. i sold the microsoft that was in my rollover i.r.a. so i don't pay any capital gains tax on a rollover i.r.a. sale and i still have the money in cash and can go back in whenever i please. was it so foolish? >> no, i think it was great. until elizabeth warren gets ahold of your rollover i.r.a. you are in good shape. she probably would find a way to tax you on that but susan is right, we are money managers, it's never a bad thing taking profits. i would tell you keep that cash ready for the next big pullback or stock maybe that pulls back that you like and jump in on it. stuart: precisely right. that's exactly what i intend to do. i will tell everybody what i do with the money. all right. tesla. on january 1st, that would be yesterday, the company lost that tax credit that had effectively lowered the price of its vehicles, but it's not hurting the stock, scott.

the stock is up nine bucks, $427. >> yeah. been a wild ride on tesla. after the truck debut and the window smashing, which i still think was rigged, i think that was on purpose, tesla is still rolling on all cylinders here, firing on all cylinders, rolling on all wheels. to me, tesla is one that was a heavily shorted stock. a lot of disbelievers, lot of haters on elon musk but the guy can get it done and he can certainly put on a show, and he puts out good cars when they work the way they are supposed to work. stuart: it's a winner. susan: so the tax rebate was $7500. that's essentially what you would get back for buying an electric vehicle like tesla. that's gone now, as of yesterday. but they are turning to china. china is still offering subsidies and tax rebates as well. you get 20% off your vehicles and a discount according to a lot of reports, and they just broke ground on a factory they just started basically building ten months ago. i mean, that is incredible timeline for someone like tesla and elon musk. stuart: look at this right now,

that's 3,247.75 on the s&p, a new all-time record high. next one, netflix. they outproduced every other studio, so how many films did they make last year? susan: 60 english language films last year. including oscar contenders, the irishman but they won an oscar. that has eluded them even though they garnered the most golden globe nominations of anybody this year. maybe the irishman, martin scorsese, might get them the statue. look, they have been spending a lot of money. they make two to three times the amount of movies that average studios make. they have been spending $15 billion on content last year, that's a lot of debt that's rolled up and a lot of competition in streaming. disney tv plus launched this year, apple tv as well, peacock, hbo max this year in 2020. will they lose subscribers? a lot of analysts say yes. will that justify the amount of

money they are spending to make these movies? that will be up to how many new subscribers they get. stuart: on your screens, the nasdaq, look at the bottom line there, that is a new all-time high. we are breaking records across the board this morning. this is a rally this thursday morning. first trading day of 2020. what a story. nasdaq is now above 9,000. check the big board completely. we are up 150 points as expected for the dow industrials. 141, to be precise. 28,677. that's your dow right now. airbus, the european operation, they have become the world's largest plane maker. first time they have been in that position since 2011. they delivered 863 aircraft last year. of course, boeing is beset with these max jet problems. that really hurt boeing over the year. airbus surges ahead of them in terms of overall production. hsbc used to be called the hong kong shanghai banking

corporation, got a lot of branches in hong kong vandalized by protesters over the new year. hong kong accounts for about half of its banks' profits. no impact on the stock. still at $39 a share. actually, up six cents this morning. here's the indicator we often turn to for the state of the economy. the ten-year treasury yield, 1.87%. that is actually down a little from where it was just before christmas. the price of gold, have not checked this in awhile, $1532. gold has been going up recently. $1532. susan: had their best year in 2019 since 2010 because of inflationary concerns, with all that money, all that stock market gains you are seeing around the world. stuart: we don't have any inflation. susan: no, we don't. that is true. stuart: gold still goes up. oil i think starts out the 2020s at $61 a barrel. there you have it. virtually unchanged. one economist had some rather harsh words for bitcoin. how harsh? susan: bank of america says bitcoin is basically a pyramid

scheme which means -- everyone gets paid but there's no money to be made, if that makes sense. eventually it will run out. i would disagree because bitcoin is a new technology, it's block chain technology which is hard to understand for average folks because you are -- it basically adds -- for me to explain this on television will be very difficult. but you add each chain by adding information and data mining which is too complicated to explain in less than 20 seconds. but bitcoin has also been a safe haven play for a lot of those that want to diversify. not safety, i should say, diversity play when you don't know what governments are doing, you don't know whether or not you agree with the central bank moves. stuart: scott martin, are you a bitcoin kind of guy? >> after susan's explanation which i thought was pretty good, for under 20 seconds, maybe. here's the thing. i kind of agree with the premise for bank of america because it can definitely turn out to be say a bidding situation if nobody wants bitcoin. that's the problem i have with

it, is that it seems very demand-driven. it's not a fiat currency. it's backed by some of those weird things susan mentioned and it's still not usable. you can't go to like the pizza parlor, the airport, and use it. to me if you are looking for an alternative as an investor, stick with gld, gold. stuart: i wonder if the domino's pizza would take bitcoin. because on new year's eve right around times square, jammed with people, domino's was charging $30 for a pizza for those people jammed into times square. the mayor of new york of course ranting against this nasty chain of capitalists and saying they exploited people. susan: you got a lot of backlash on twitter as well because mayor de blasio is not that popular in new york city. so those on twitter once said this is coming from a guy who eats pizza with a knife and fork, please. this just came from one -- so there's one store, one domino's pizza on 40th street and seventh avenue, they were selling pies,

pizzas, for just around $30 apiece. that's twice, almost twice what they normally charge for cheese pizza, $14. and they sold around 50 pizzas by 6:00 p.m. now, if you go by the slice, we did the calculations, that would make this pizza worth around $32. so were they really price gouging when it's basically supply and demand? we are in a free market system. stuart: look, most places in new york city, you will pay $4 for a slice of pizza. there are eight slices of pizza in a pie which means $32 for your pie, slice by slice. domino's was charges 30 bucks in times square. you have anything to add to this, scott martin? >> you know, i used to be a fan of domino's. i eat a lot of pizza hut nowadays. i think domino's should be paying people $30 to maybe eat their pizza. stuart: hold on. i've got to do this. correction on bitcoin. susan, what have we got? susan: so it's lending tree's

chief economist that said bitcoin is a pyramid scheme, not bank of america. in fact, bank of america called it the investment of the decade. there are diverse views on -- >> one way or the other. there you go. stuart: well said, young man. thank you. scott, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. it's 9:41 on this, the first trading day of the year, and here's where we are after 11 minutes' worth of business. we are up 160 on the dow, 28,700. just hit that mark. 2020 democrats, in my opinion, in disarray. they are pushing for big government, they are pushing for higher taxes, just to name a few of the things they're up to. is that a winning message? later in the show we will ask fox news' bret baier what he thinks about it. texas, historically a strong place for republicans, but trump's disapproval rating is not good in that state. does this mean trouble for

re-election? we will discuss about texas. first, though, president trump will sign the phase one china trade deal and maybe go to beijing later in the year to negotiate phase two. economist peter morici, what does he think about this? he's a trade guy. we will ask him in a moment. i'm your 70lb st. bernard puppy, and my lack of impulse control, is about to become your problem. ahh no, come on. i saw you eating poop earlier. hey! my focus is on the road, and that's saving me cash with drivewise. who's the dummy now? whoof! whoof! so get allstate where good drivers save 40% for avoiding mayhem, like me. sorry! he's a baby!

stuart: look at that. we're up 168, 170 points now. we're above 28,700 on this first day -- i keep saying this, but this is a historic day, first day of trading in the new decade and look at that, the rally continues. we have the president, this is a positive for the market, the president tweeted on new year's eve that the phase one china trade deal will be signed january 15th. it will be signed in d.c. and later this year, he will go to

beijing to negotiate phase two of the china trade deal. economist peter morici joins us now. would you say that the president has won so far in the china trade dispute? >> the president has won this battle and this should correct some of the trade deficit problem but hardly all of it. we don't know the details. we don't know exactly over what period china is going to buy $200 billion of goods, we just know they have made a promise. we need to see those details. it's a nice downpayment on the future but it hardly resolves our basic problems with china. stuart: but it does take the china trade story off the table as far as investors and the economy are concerned, doesn't it? after all, we are used to reacting to all these headlines, oh, it looks good, looks bad, the market goes down. that's off the table now, isn't it? >> until we get some bad news, yes. after all, we will start negotiating a phase two deal. how do those negotiations go. what do they mean for american technology companies.

does china follow through on its promises to open up with regard to financial services and otherwise. we have to see how the deal evolves. if it unfolds well, then it's off the table. if it doesn't unfold well, it doesn't. if china stonewalls us in a phase two, it's back on the table. stuart: okay. do we get in 2020, do we get to 3% growth for the u.s. economy for the year? >> no. in the first quarter, we are going to take a hard body shot from the 737 max shutdown. stuart: really. >> that's basically -- that's half a point off of gdp growth right there. so we are going to come out of the box in the first quarter with growth between 1.5% to 2%. you got to be a pretty good mathematician to get to 3% average if your first quarter growth is less than 2%. that doesn't mean we are going to have a bad year. just we aren't going to get to 3%. stuart: but the market will discount that. >> that's different. you asked me about gdp.

you didn't ask me about the s&p. i expect profits to increase by about 10% this year. other than boeing and its supply chain, things look really good. boeing out there, that's really a mess. but the rest of the economy looks really good. with 10% profits growth, another 10% on the s&p after a 29% year, heck, that's cocktail party music to me. stuart: you're right. >> i mean, i hope you saved some champagne for next year, you know, because if we get 10% profit growth, we are going to have a good year in the market. stuart: looks like 2020 has started out real well and you think it keeps on going real well throughout the year. can we end it like that? >> i have a piece on the front page of the op-ed section of "the washington times" this morning that says the whole decade will look good. i'm very optimistic about the american economy. i'm very optimistic about the global economy. i think the new technologies that are coming online are going to transform fundamentally the problems that we face, and that we are going to have a good decade.

i will see you january 2nd, 2030, right here on this show. hold me to it. stuart: okay. i hope to be here for that. put it like that. >> i do, too. we are the same age. i'm looking forward to celebrating 81 with you. on air. stuart: you're on. you are on. thanks for joining us. happy new year to you. great decade to come. here we go. >> happy new year. stuart: sure thing. despite his very public divorce, amazon's chief jeff bezos ended 2019 still as the world's richest man. how much of his amazon holdings did he lose in the divorce? susan: he lost around 4% of his amazon stake to mackenzie bezos, his former ex-wife. she walked away with $38 billion at the time. jeff bezos ended the year still the richest man on the planet so he's worth around $115 billion. lost around $10 billion that he had at the start of 2019. bill gates, number two, still worth $113 billion.

bernard arnault saw the biggest gain in the year, his fortune swung by $37 billion in 2019. third richest on the planet worth $105 billion. warren buffett, number four. mark zuckerberg is at number five with $78 billion of wealth. of the 500 richest people on the planet, they actually got $1.2 trillion richer in the year, up 25%. stuart: bezos recovered his loss from his divorce by the rising stock price of amazon. susan: correct. that's exactly what happened. so yeah, it made up for it even though he gave away 4% of his holdings and $38 billion to mackenzie which made her one of the richest women on the planet. i think at least in the top two or three. stuart: be careful how you use the expression gave away. susan: gave away. yes. stuart: lost. susan: oh, stop. it's not lost. they come in a marriage together, they shared the whole thing. it's equal. in fact, i think she should have gotten more. stuart: okay. i will leave it right there. he's worth $115 billion. god bless him. is that right? susan: that's right.

there you go. stuart: check the dow 30. let's have a look across the board. couldn't give you that earlier but look at this. three out of four dow stocks are on the upside. that's a new high of the morning. i think it's an all-time high as well. 28,712, the dow is up 174 points. what a day. it's a new year. many are trying to keep their new year's resolutions. we all make them but how many of us keep them? let's be honest, it's easy to forget after a few weeks. coming up, america's personal trainer, tony little, with his tips on how you preserve your resolutions. and it's a new year, that means new laws on everything from gun control to legalized marijuana. guess what? california leads the charge with one of the most far-reaching privacy laws. we will discuss. keep it here. you're with varney. into one monthly payment. and get your interest rate right so you can save big. get a no-fee personal loan

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stuart: the '20s have started. will they roar like they did 100 years ago? pretty good question. joining us, robert moran, the brunswick group guy, the man with all the research. what research have you done that tells us, tells you and i, whether or not this decade's going to roar? go. >> sure. okay. so the u.s. in the early 2020s is set to roar for a number of

reasons. let's get started. u.s. consumer confidence is where it is today relative -- it's similar to where it was between 1997 and 2000. so u.s. consumer confidence is very very good. the next reason is that builder confidence is at 1999 levels. that's also really really good. and small business confidence just spiked in november. if you add all that up, builders, consumers, and small business, that's really good news. and then the kicker, which just happened, is the u.s./china trade war turns into a u.s./china trade truce. i think that reduces some of the friction on us going into the 2020s. so all that is very very good news. stuart: there's one more thing -- hold on a second. there's one more thing which i pick up from your research and that is what you called the scaling of new technologies. i guess you mean artificial

intelligence and 5g. that will make the decade roar, is that right? >> yes, that's right. so most viewers, when they think of the 1920s because we are comparing to the 1920s, they think about flappers, the jazz age and prohibition. that's fine. but the real story of the 1920s was the scaling of existing technologies into big industries. so automobiles, radio, advertising, the industrialization of agriculture, et cetera. the same -- we are at the same point in the 2020s. what we have is ai, robotics, tissue engineering, genetics, the commercialization of space in this decade. you have a number of technologies that are all mat e maturing at the same time that should pop in this decade. that's really exciting. there are also -- stuart: i'm sorry, i'm out of time, robert. i'm very sorry. i get the gist. you are adding to those -- people are saying yeah, this

decade is going to roar. what a great way to start the show on this, the first trading day of 2020. robert moran, thanks for joining us, sir. we appreciate it. okay. we'll be back with more "varney" after this. everything is locally harvested, farm to dumpster to table. uhhh, what do you... what else do you got? (stammering) w-we have a melon rind stew. comes with a pork and bean reduction. yeah, we're going to just do a lap and we'll come back. okay. well, we'll be here. man! why isn't this working? my mouth is watering. i think that's just your rabies flaring up. with geico, the savings keep on going. just like this sequel. 15 minutes could save you 15% or more on car insurance. we got gristle pot pies! . . of look, this isn't my first rodeo...

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trust aag for the best reverse mortgage solutions. so you can... retire better. stuart: right, thursday morning 10:00 eastern time. you know what that means. we get latest read on mortgage rates. do we have numbers yet? susan: 3.72. vitally down from 3.74% we had last week. less safety play into the treasury yields, which mortgage rates track more closely than actual interest rates. this might be good for the housing market. there is signs of improvement last few month heading into year's end. you heard from freddie mac interest rate turbulence last year din help the housing market. stuart: that is what i hear all the time, 2020 will be good for housing market. for all kinds of people.

builders, sellers. all kinds of people. susan: high stock markets and well flushing. stuart: no immediate reaction on the stock market. we're still enjoying a very, very solid rally. the dow up 180 points, 27,718. records all across the board. now this. it is going well, isn't it? the economy is growing, wages rising, interest rates low, trade deals in place. you have seen what is going on with the markets right now. new records all over the place. i don't want to be a grinch but i have to ask, what could bring it all to an end? all right. two things in particular stand out. first, an unexpected event that comes out of nowhere, takes world by surprise. so-called black swan event is always a possibility that can never be accurately forecast. you can't tell one's coming.

here is the real threat in my opinion, the real threat, radical political change. yeah, this is an election year. the democrats appeared to shifted way out on to the left. if it looks like they could win the presidency or worse, the presidency, senate and the house, watch out below. that to me is the biggest threat to our current prosperity. the four front-runners all propose huge tax hikes, reversing cuts that did so much to get the economy going under president trump. you start taking trillions of dollars out of private hands, you are killing the goose that lays the prosperity egg. all four front-runners propose some kind of dramatic climate action. that means much higher energy prices no matter what they tell you. means an enormous increase in government spending, subsidies. the "green new deal" will not produce a growing vibrant

economy. i don't think any of the front-runners can beat mr. trump but if they get close, investors will get very nervous. enough with the negative. can we just enjoy it. trump hating media along with the trump hating left will make a lot of noise. with the record breaking holiday period we have been through, it is hard to argue we need to get rid of the president who gave us prosperity. on this the first trading day of the '20s, i'm not saying we're off to the roaring '20s, but the decade started very, very well. life is good. come along for the ride, please. okay? harlan hill, trump president advise very group board member. harlan, i have absolutely no doubt you will agree entirely with everything i just said, right? >> absolutely. this is the greatest period of economic expansion in my lifetime, certainly and i just to the back end of the year working in pennsylvania, ohio, talking to a lot of different

voters, talking to trump rallies and i've been absolutely blown away how happy working-class people are with the progress the trump economy made for them. they are feeling it day-to-day. they are actually better off today than four years ago. there are not just statistics. there are stories out there. record 50-year low unemployment. impacting people's retirement, every day lives and buying houses. stuart: the trump campaign is bringing in a ton of money. i got numbers on q4, last three months of last year, brought in $46 million. way more than any democrat candidate. i believe, harlan for the year, the trump campaign brought in $143 million. now is this, is impeachment bringing in the money? is that helping bring in the cash? >> actually i predicted this would backfire on democrats. he raised $46 million. 146 over the entire year and we

have $103 million cash on hand, cash in the bank on the trump campaign. that is not all. the rnc has something around $63 million cash on hand. we're leaving democrats in the dust. they have all the internal division, they can't decide whether they want to be hardcore socialists, or socialists light, that is the battle within the democratic party the money is drying up. a couple candidates are raising money but the dnc can barely keep the lights on. the party is falling apart. they don't know who they are, what their funders are or their mission is. they don't. stuart: that is complete list. you were in pennsylvania i think and you were in ohio. went to trump rallies, you talked to voters there. did anybody mention impeachment? anybody gung-ho, let's get rid of this guy? >> not a single person. it is absolutely absurd. look i was in the rust belt, former democratic strongholds and you had trump voters, many of them first-time voters. i know a couple of people didn't

vote for him last go round. they will vote for him in 2020. people were standing in the sleet, in the snow waiting to see the president. a long line of people couldn't get in the building in the snow. the enthusiasm for the president is not waning. maybe on the coast, democrats continue to believe their own hype, the president is historically unpopular, that the polls are right. i'm telling you they're not in places that count. pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, ohio, the president is going to win. i feel better this go-round than in 2016. stuart: harlan, thanks for joining us. always a pleasure. we'll see you real soon. of the check the big board. not quite the high of the day. we're up, 28,700. we have records across the board. time to bring in dennis gartman. welcome back. talk big picture here. a lot of people on the show in the last week or two, again today, saying that look, 2020, for the market, looks really, really solid. where are you coming from?

>> i think 2020 looks really, really solid. i'm surprised by the solidity of it. i'm surprises from the strong stock market is froms in. they will continue to move from the lower left to the up right until they stop. the first thing i do check to see make sure that pakistan and india have not fired nuclear missiles at one another. when they haven't done this i breathe a sigh of relief. there will be something next six months, a year, cause some disconcerting. it has been a bull market. surprised me how strong it has been. this is not just a u.s. bull market. this bull market has gone on around the world. european stocks are stronger, japanese stocks are stronger, chinese stocks are stronger. this is bull market. they say it is due to mr. trump. i say global circumstance driving prosperity around the world. that is important and should be

taken away from it. stuart: in the interest of full disclosure i told viewers earlier this morning i sold a little more than half of my microsoft. susan: wow. stuart: was that a foolish move in your opinion, dennis. >> no, i think that is very wise move. i trade for my own account. i have my money at risk all the time. i've been long stocks last month 1/2, two months. i got short a little bit, sold a few hedges on thursday and friday. maybe i have to cover a few of those. i did essentially same thing you did. i did it in broader term. did i cut back 25% what i had been long. that is what i have done. that is always you have done. i don't think that is bad thing. i think that is very wise. stuart: come to you for advise where to put the cash. president will sign phase one of the china trade deal january 15th. global markets reacting very nicely to this. is china trade news part of

today's rally, dennis, real fast, please? >> i suppose tech that probably is. public doesn't follow trade numbers as much we do in the market. the fact it is getting public participation, public awareness is probably one of the reasons. the other reason there is net inflow of start of new funds at the start of a new year that is the major reason stocks are up more than anything else. stuart: dennis, thank you for joining us. which always appreciate it. good to see you, mr. gartman. >> thank you, stuart. always good to be on. thanks for having me here. stuart: sure thing. 2020 it has arrived. many people made new year's resolutions me included. many are about losing weight, me included. going to the gym. not me included the later this hour, only little, america's personal trainer joins us. nobody sticks to resolutions. what can he do about that? we'll cover politics. in the past 11 presidential elections texas voted republicans every time.

now there are concerns that it may go the other way because trump's approval rating is down. will texas be in play this year? we'll talk to our texas guy, matt macoviak later this year. hong kong, chaos new year's day, hundreds arrested. we'll talk to the executive of the apple daily, a hong kong-based newspaper. i want to know, what is the endgame here? where are we going with this? we'll be back. ♪. ♪ ♪ ♪

stuart: not quite high of the day. we'll certainly take this. a gain of 150 points for the dow. that is half a percentage point. we have records all across the board this thursday morning. the end of a tax credit in america has tesla turning to china? explain. susan: those who were buying

electric vehicles here in the u.s. you were getting $7500 back if you bought a tesla and other electric vehicles as well. that is now gone as of january 1st, 2020. but tesla making inroads in china, which is expected to be the largest electric car market of the world. already the world's largest car market. they started delivering model 3 sedans after breaking ground in shanghai factory. that is the fastest time of anyone ever heard of tesla and elon musk getting to. stuart: sorry to interrupt you. that is astonishing. they built a factory from scratch and had a car turn the out. susan: they are delivering 1,000 a week. they are expecting to get 20% rebates in the country. elon musk wants to get 360,000, 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019. which is jump of 47% a year before. china is a main part of that equation. stuart: america's tax break is a

sideshow compared to 1000 a week in china. susan: in china. stuart: from tesla. extraordinary story. susan, thank you. staying on the asian region, protests in hong kong back on the streets new year's day. hundreds of arrested by the way. will we continue to see more of this throughout the year? odds are yes. mark simpson, senior executive of apple daily. that is a newspaper based in hong kong. welcome to the program. >> how are you? stuart: i'm remarkably well. you're going back to hong kong. >> i fly back to hong kong soon. stuart: as a man in the media in hong kong do you go out with the protesters or what's the atmosphere? >> i have a unique situation, the government seem to think i am black happened behind things. i stay away from pro tests. first thing they want to make an arrest and catch the black hand or somebody near the protest and secondly that would not help the protests in any way, shape or form for me to be arrested. it is a narrative of the government that there is foreign

interference in what i think anybody going there see is very organic protest. stuart: what surprises myself and susan, observerses of this, the hong kong people are remarkably resilient in the face after declining economy, very nasty police tactics they're still out on the street. seems to us what they want is a free vote. are they ever going to get it? >> i think it is difficult to see in the coming years a free vote he. i think what is very possible to see the return of spirit of one country, two systems. in other words a return to more fair and equitable balance in the legislative council. in other words make more seats open to democratic vote rather than have what we call the functional constituencies, seats reserved for beijing cronies. stuart: that would be a retreat for xi xinping? >> it would be basically a return to the one country, two

systems. i think if you're basically looking for retreat they already retreated somewhat. they dropped the extradition bill. that was a major victory. most people did not think they would pull back. they tried not to, in the end they were forced to pull back the extradition bill. they have not put in article 23. article 23 is what the original protest i was involved back in 2003, which is the anti-subversion law. they have not put that in and they have not tried to put that in. then we just had the district council elections which were by all means, that is the local elections, just a complete wipeout of what was a very traditionally pro-beijing electoral area. so it is really, the beijing government has not been doing well and so really if they're looking to calm hong kong down, there is a few things they can get them. i think the hong kong people are not going to be, or at least the vast majority are not going to

be at the end of the day, say we have to have full democratic rule or we're going to show up in the street every day. we have to see the trendlines going away from beijing interference. that is the most important thing. we have to see beijing say okay, one country, two systems. we'll see you in 2047. stuart: okay. north korea, making threats. anything more than china telling its client state, north korea, act up, because we want an edge on trump? is that what it is all about? >> he doesn't do anything without the approval of xi xinping. that is pretty much well-known. i never understood why people give him any credence as an independent actor. right now he wants some love, he wants some attention and the chinese said, all right, go ahead and cause some problems. i think it will be interesting to see where he takes this, because i do think that the trump administration, and i think most americans know now

china is the one behind this guy. if he starts launching missiles towards china again i think china will probably bear the consequences. stuart: you going back to hong kong this week? >> i'm going back to hong kong this week. stuart: any trepidation doing that? >> no. i have been detained before. i've been pulled in over the years. to be perfectly honest with you, they are very polite about it. they're almost english about it. and they harass you and that is how it goes. at the end of the day i don't really do anything. my belief, my lawyers belief that should put me in jeopardy. stuart: good luck to you. thank you. president trump signed a new law that helps reduce the number of robocalls. can the government really stop them? obvious question. can they do it, can the government stop it without violating free speech? that is a good question.

i will put that question to the sec chair ajit pai. he is next on this show. ♪. i'm your curious cat, and you know what they say about curiosity. it'll ruin your house. so get allstate and be better protected from mayhem, like meow. (groans) hmph... (food grunting menacingly) when the food you love doesn't love you back, stay smooth and fight heartburn fast with tums smoothies. ♪ tum tum-tum tum tums this round's on me.eat. hey, can you spot me?

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some people say that's ridiculous. age is just an illusion. how you show up for the world, that's what's real. what's your idea? i put it out there with a godaddy website.

stuart: president trump has signed that law which allows the fcc to target robocalls. with me on the phone, ironically, sec chair ad jet pai. welcome back to the come. can you say this is it, i will no longer receive robocalls on the phone? can you tell me that.

>> thanks for having me on. this is step in the right direction. there is no silver bullet but the additional authorities the president and congress given the sec will help us better attack the top consumer protection priority. it's a frustration for me and millions of consumers across the united states, this has got to end and this legislation will help us stop to do that. stuart: can you move towards ending this robocall problem without interfering with free speech because that is the issue here, isn't it? >> i think we can for two reasons. number one, we are focusing on automated or artificial voice calls. and, those are calls that traditionally rent raise free speech concerns, not actual person that is making the call. secondly, there is also an element of deception in many of these calls where they spoof, for example, the phone number that they're calling from or introduce element of fraud in the call to try to get to you give personal information. those are the types of calls that traditionally don't have as strong free speech protection.

i'm confident we can take action here. stuart: ajit, we can some up, you cannot tell us we'll stop this forever and ever i am mild but you can tell us we're on the right track to getting to grips of this problem. can we leave it at that, sir. >> absolutely. you can take that one to the bank. stuart: i will. we wish you a very happy new year. ajit pai, thank you. >> thank you for having me. stuart: you remember the big roundup case? the government says the verdict should be reversed. this case was about warning labels. one lawyer involved is comparing the lawsuit to extortion. the lawyer says, extortion is cheaper. can you believe that? what a story. we're on it. by the way, check the market because we've come way down. we were up nearly 200. now we're up 96. the rally has faded a little.

still in place. still looking green arrows there after setting records for the nasdaq, s&p earlier. we'll be back. ♪. most people think of verizon

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♪. ♪ you say stop, i say go, go, go ♪ ♪ stuart: brand new year, i always repeat the question i asked her in the old year, have you heard of this song. susan: i have heard of it but don't know the name.

hello, good-bye. i don't need to learn the entire beatles anthology because the producers are in my ear. stuart: i like the pop. when they made records like that, it was sold on vinyl records. these days it is streamed at you. how much of the music business is the streaming music? susan: 80% of the music market is stream. renting, compared to buying. compare that in 2010, when streaming was only 7% of the market. back in 2010, physical sales, including vinyl, back in 2010 weren't you buying cds or vinyl? i have to check that with you. physical sales were 52% of the market. in 2019, physical sales including buying records, only 19%. what pushed to streaming the rise of the smartphone.

in 2010, only 35% of the americans used a smartphone. now that percentage as really jumped to i think billion 0% as well. so if you have a smartphone, probably easier to download apple music and spotify. amazon music coming on as well as pandora. stuart: susan, this age i am has to stop. susan: right. because there is reverse age i am -- ageism coming from you on the show. stuart: good stuff. we still have a triple-digit gain for the dow industrials. we come off the highs of the day. we were up nearly 200. we're up 140. i think we'll take it, ladies and gentlemen. did you know this? it is national returns day? ups expects to pick up and take back a record number of packages. kristina partsinevelos at the new york exchange with the numbers. what do you have, kristina. >> isn't it crazy there is national day for everything? but the numbers say ups will see roughly almost 2 million, a

little less than two million packages returned today. the vast majority of them will be shipped online which means a lot of movement for ups trucks in the street, fedex, et cetera. when you think about it, that does eat into retailer's margins. they have to sit through it. some are paying for items to be returned back to the retail organization and that is a 26% increase in volume compared to last year. so definitely more movement. if you're wondering, compared to everywhere else in the entire world, americans are the ones to return more goods than any other country. number one item? clothes. so stu, i don't know if you had a great christmas, but do you return goods? stuart: i was given some clothing. and it is being returned. it is just a hoodie i got, wrong size. it wasn't big enough. >> wrong size, maybe exchange instead of a return? stuart: it will be exchange, yes. nobody loses on this except the shippers i guess. did you return clothing this

christmas? >> i'm returning a pair of airpods i received, my ear canals are too big and they fall out. stuart: really? >> very weird and very specific but i will return that. stuart: thank you very much, kristina. >> you asked. stuart: my fault. check out, look this is recent headline, from "the wall street journal" and it is about that class-action lawsuit arguing that the weed killer roundup causes cancer. the roundup stick-up. a trial lawyer allegedly argued it is cheaper to be extorted than sued. come in one of our old friends on this program. his name is mark lanier. one of the great trial lawyers of this great country. i have not seen this man in years and years but he's backs. so, last week the government said the active ingredient in roundup is not a carcinogen and warning labels are not required.

that destroys the lawsuit and, were you involved in this lawsuit? >> i was not involved in that lawsuit in particular but i do have some roundup glyphosate cases where i am involved. and with all due respect, stuart, you and i never trust the government 100% for policies. that is why we have a court system. stuart: yes, but when a lawyer says it is cheaper and easier to extort a company than it is to go to trial and sue properly, that is outrageous. that frankly, mark -- >> outrageous. stuart: that is the business that you are in. you are in extortion business. you are in the complaint business. >> no, absolutely not. stuart: you organize the jury to be very on your side, right from the get-go. the judge excludes all kinds of information which he or she doesn't think you need and you guys walk away with millions and millions of dollars.

it is, mark, it is extortion and you know it. >> no, no, no. now, extortion is wrong, period. no questions, no ifs, ands, buts about it. if that went on if there was a quid pro quo there is a problem there. that's wrong. however, that's not what i'm in. the business i'm in is the justice business. so if someone, if the alcoholic drives into your loved one and careens and kills your loved one, stu, you're going to need someone like me to help out in that situation. that is not extortion. that is -- stuart: where is the justice in taking roundup to court and telling the jury and the judge that this is a carcinogen, that it causes cancer, and stealing, frankly stealing billions of dollars from the company that makes roundup? that is extortion and that's what you're doing. >> no, no.

stuart, please understand, that there are studies that do show that this is a carcinogen. what the epa says is, the amount of glyphosate that is left in your cheerios is not going to cause cancer to the person eating cheerios. i agree with that. the question is, the person who is spraying the stuff, day in, day out, got it all over their skin because they weren't wearing gloves they should have been wearing, body treatment, did it cause hodgkin's lymphoma. there are studies that indicate it did. there are studies funded by the company that indicate did it not. stuart: 30,000 people who went to court, who had also, they were sprayers, they were spraying roundup around on a regular basis, these were people doing the spraying, they all said no, we have no trace of cancer whatsoever. these were the people, spraying it with it all over them all day long. >> right. it won't cause cancer on

everybody. there is no fussing about that but there are 100,000 sprayers who say that it did cause their non-hodgkins lymphoma. ultimately we need a fair and impartial jury. i trust the american citizens to use their common sense to work through the evidence and figure that out. and if there is no problem there, they will exonerate roundup. plenty of companies get exonerated in court. if there is a problem there, then roundup needs to be responsible and pay for it. stuart: we'll fight another day, mark lanier but it is always pleasure to be on the show. >> i love your show. stuart: thanks a lot mark. google has new ai system, artificial intelligence system that can detect cancer when doctors miss it. so they say. is that reliable? susan: sometimes. the results are pretty marginal at this point. we did have the journal, nature, reporting these results from the new google, artificial intelligence and what they found

was that google, they used 25,000 mammograms from the uk and they reduced the missed cases of diagnosis only by 2.7% in britain. if you compare it, i guess to the correct, incorrect positive reads they got from the mammograms, the google ai system only reduced that by 1.2%. these are not huge numbers. in the u.s., they said the ai system, about 3,000 mammogram cases in the u.s., what they found was reduction in the missed cases by 9.4% and incorrect positive reads by 5.7%. these are not huge numbers. stuart: true. susan: i would say incredibly positive and successful numbers to hang your hat on. i think there needs more development. stuart: especially ai is in the very early stages. you have aways to go to improve performance of this test. that is good news. susan: hopefully improvement and reduce load of doctors, but you

need more accurate reads to do that. stuart: thank you, susan. 2020 has arrived. yes it did, many spent the past month partying. we all do that people hope to recover staying away from alcohol the month of january. it has been called dry january. we'll tell you about that in a moment. a lot of people say they will hit the gym, eat healthy the new year but they never stick to it. america's trainer, tony little, he will give us tips to stick to that resolution. ♪. look, this isn't my first rodeo...

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we'll go with what we've got. that is a gain of about .4%. 26,660 where we are. december was a party month. time to sober up. grady trimble talks about dry january. i'm all ears, grady, go. reporter: people that want to detox during the month of january. no alcohol during the month of january. not a small percentage of the population participating in this. one in five americans said they participated last year according to a recent survey. the beer companies are actually getting involved now too. seems counterintuitive they would be promoting dry january but they are. heineken, for example, is promoting non-alcoholic beer what they call a january dry pack. it is advent calendar where you take out one beer a day for the month of january but it is non-alcoholic beer. all the major beverage makers

have non-alcoholic beers now, it is a growing sector. you know who is to blame for that, stuart? the pesky millenials who are health-conscious like myself. stuart: did you say pesky? susan li is sitting next to me. pesky? be careful. susan: grade did is pesky. stuart: grady, i smell a time. you're all right. i appreciate it. it is new year. so you have new year's resolutions. on the screens these are the top five resolutions. number one, make a budget. number two, pay down credit card debt. number three create emergency -- where has it gone. i can't read it. have to read it somewhere. susan: there you go. stuart: create emergency fund. what, that is financial new years resolution. we have to try, give me health resolutions. >> that is it. stuart: actually do the resolution, two, try something new. three, eat more favorite foods,

four eat -- diet, lose weight. five, go to the gym. tony little, nobody follows through on the resolution, tell us how we follow through on the resolution. >> i need a list of the other resolutions. i needed financial help. stuart: okay. give you that later. how to stick with the resolutions most people make? >> i think it is very important. obviously every year people make commitments to get in shape, feel better, look better, everything like that. they have fad diets which are fads you should ever go with and i don't think they get the simple information. you don't have to overdo it to lose weight. i believe in resistance exercise. resistance exercise helps increase lean muscle. muscle helps the metabolism. burn more calories at rest. body fat doesn't. if you have five pounds of body fat, throw that to me, in case

nobody knew what five pounds. that is five pounds of body fat. you want to get rid of it. seriously, you want muscle toning. if you go to a gym, every one starts in the gym during the new year, they work out very hard, they lose weight really hard, they quit, get it all back. the key, do whole body exercise. you know what i'm saying? instead of going to a gym, stay there to work the arms, calves and abs, you need whole body exercise. do whole body squat. do whole chest movement which includes arms. large muscle, body back, that. you do that three days a week. do cardio two days a week in between. that is the type of program. stuart: look, i have 30 seconds left. >> that was quick. stuart: never been to a gym in my life, never used a piece of gym equipment in my life, except

my cardio test. i never done it. give me 20 seconds what i should do to lose weight, to keep it off. go. >> very simply, when you cardio, weight bearing cardio with ellipticals, and weight training, squeeze up, squeeze down. that's it. how is that? stuart: i will see about that. tony, america's personal trainer. thanks for being with us this morning. i will get to the financial resolutions later. thank you, tony. >> i will watch. happy new years. stuart: the new year brings new laws. yes, it does. and foremost of all the states bringing in brand new laws, we have of course. california. what are they up to. susan: california is doing a lot of things but don't you want to start with illinois, the fact they legalized recreational marijuana? i think that is probably the top one that took place on january first. california has new tech laws coming into place. that includes data privacy.

they're getting very strict with data privacy. far-reaching. it might go across the rest of the country, if you do it for one state you have to do it for others as well. what does the california consumer privacy act entail? that means users like me and you clearly see what type of personal data they're gathering and what they're doing with it as well. we talked about tesla, rebate going away on january 1st, 2020, they're charging more for new registration fees. $200 in alabama and ohio. hawaii charges $50. want to talk about colorado's red flag law? stuart: it is on the screen. susan: but the new red flag law is pretty serious. it will allow family members and law enforcement to request guns seized from people who are ultimately deemed to be a threat to themselves and also to society. stuart: okay. i think we got it. pot's legal in illinois as of

now. i got it. election year. republicans relying heavily on texas, expected to win there but show some polls show the president's approval rating is down in texas. is the state in play in 2020? i will ask our texas guy, matt macoviak in a moment. ♪. (chime) (shaq) magenta? i hate cartridges! not magenta! not magenta. i'm not going back to the store. magenta! cartridges are so... (buzzer) (vo) the epson ecotank. no more cartridges. it comes with an incredible amount of ink that can save you a lot of frustration. ♪ the epson ecotank. just fill and chill. available at...

stuart: texas has voted for the republican nominee in the past 10 presidential elections. solid red for the past 40 years. there is some concern that the state this year could be in play. how about that? texas guy, matt macoviak joins us now. he is in the state capital of austin, texas. the president's approval rating in texas is apparently down a little. so people are worried that texas is in play? really? >> yeah look, i don't think it will be in the play in the sense texas will not be a battleground state in 2020. now, look as caveat i say, depends on identity of the democratic presidential nominee. if it is bernie sanders or elizabeth warren, that type of candidate is way too progressive to make texas competitive.

someone like joe biden who would have some appeal in the suburbs or perhaps appeal in the independent voters would make it more competitive. when trump won in texas in 2016, that was 9%. that is less than the two previous republican candidates won it by but till a solid margin. if i make a prediction i think he wins by 6 to 8% in 2020. trump campaign, state chairman, lieutenant governor dan patrick think they will win texas by larger margin. it will depend a lot on suburbs. beto o'rourke in 2018 flipped several suburban counties. republicans have to find away to bring those back and the economy has -- stuart: i would have thought texas has truly booming economy. new jobs all over the place. i would have thought that that would secure a significant trump win in texas, the economy? >> yeah. and look, this comes to the central question, because 2018 was a good year for democrats in

texas. 2016 trump still won the state on statewide basis by 9%. the question, whether 2020 presidential year will reflect the last presidential election year, 2016 or will it look more like the midterms in 2018? the reality, stuart, it will be is somewhere in the middle. i think closer to 2016 in terms of make up of electorate. i expect senior senator john cornyn of texas to win by a solid margin as well. stuart: off top of the your head can you name the democrat that may pose the strongest challenge to president trump in texas? >> i think biden would be the answer to at that question. the challenge with biden is, he doesn't always perform at a high level. he makes mistakes. he makes verbal gaffs. he gets confused. he is probably not really reflective where the beating heart of the democratic party is today. that said, you know, he is someone that is been around a long time.

he is a little bit more pro-business, a little more moderate than some of the democratic candidates so he could have appeal to the middle. i don't think biden can win texas. i don't think any democrat can win texas in 2020. it will be closer than in the past and that would have ramifications down ballot if that were to occur. stuart: as always thank thank y, matt macoviak, we'll see you. thank you. on new year's eve, iranian protesters looked like they were trying to take over the u.s. embassy in baghdad. president trump quickly sent marines to strengthen their military presence. pete hegseth on that. is trump trying to keep us out of a war with iran? it is election year, seems democrats are heading for a mess that a brokered convention, splits the party. that is all in my take which comes up next.

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stuart: all right. here's my new year forecast. the democrats lose. with 11 months to the election, i guess that is a little premature. 11 months is a lifetime in politics. but just look at the current state of the democrat party. divided, angry, and in my opinion, out of touch. first, this division. it's socialism versus socialism light. not much of a division, i guess, but it's there. senators warren and sanders demand the complete reorganization of society. that's a direct attack on capitalism. joe biden and mayor pete don't go quite that far, but they are not the moderates of yesteryear, are they? these two sides are at each other's throats. at this moment it's an even split, but somebody has to be the nominee. i don't see who can bridge the gap. it is a divided party.

it's an angry party, too. anger is not a good political strategy, especially when not all democrats share the anger. the industrial workers who got a boost from mr. trump are not that upset about his style and tone and language, especially when he's delivered sharply rising wages and frankly, the contempt and hatred so many democrats difficult plsplay tow president turns a lot of people off. as for being out of touch, where do you start? if you want america to abandon fossil fuels and pay more for energy, you are out of touch. if you want to continue an open border policy, you are out of touch. if you want to abandon the policies that brought us prosperity, you are really out of touch and let's not even think about abolishing the private health insurance enjoyed by a hundred million americans. you think that gets you elected? no. so that's my forecast. a divided, angry and out of

touch party loses this year's election. you heard it right here. the third hour of "varney & company" will continue. stuart: i will get some more reaction to that editorial in a few minutes from now. bret baier will join us. what does he think about the democrats in this election year? he's on the show shortly. first, though, look who is here. elizabeth macdonald, host of "the evening edit" on this network. i was sitting here doing my editorial and you were sitting there listening and you looked really lukewarm. liz: so funny. happy new year. i was thinking about it because i was agreeing with you because going through my head, looking at what the data is showing, what gallup is saying, gallup is saying for the third straight year it's government that's the top problem for voters right

now. for a third straight year in a row. so you know, it looks like the democrats are completely out of touch. bernie sanders said if i don't get elected based on my ideas, i should get the hell out of politics. well, yeah, when you see the polling, 75% of voters are telling cnn the economy is pretty good. 8 out of 10 in fidelity's survey saying people like where their finances are. blue collar workers, their wages are faster than middle manager wage growth. biden says you should code instead of doing coal mining. the attitude, though, it's a d.c. media beltway echo chamber that's completely flat out, out of touch. these are the same guys who call for recession in august. if you listened to them you would have lost a heck of a lot of money listening to them. i'm just baffled. by the way, this is why the viewership ratings for the democrat debates are off by two-thirds since june. there is still no debate for the democrats on jobs, no debate on

the economy yet. so you know, you wonder, they are completely, completely wacky and out of touch. i hate to use the word wacky but they could be in for a landslide loss like walter mondale was. stuart: this is the first trading day of 2020. expectations are pretty strong. you have seen goldman sachs saying look, don't see a recession coming. peter navarro, the trade guy, says 32,000 on the dow in 2020. what's your outlook? liz: that's pretty easy to get to 32,000 now incrementally, a 1% move up, it's a faster move to 32,000 than it was at 15,000. i will get to that in a second. i won't bore you with geeky math at the beginning of the year. stuart: no math, please. liz: know what was really striking? i was watching the numbers coming in, the data from the government. $1 trillion was brought back home by u.s. companies from overseas. u.s. companies did bring back a trillion bucks in cash. so when you look at the stocks that maybe can move higher,

again, we have just come out of a decade for the first time, we are in a decade that saw no recession, right? there was a warning, larry summers, stagnation, parabolic move to the downside. just astonishing what you are told by this smug cocoon of so-called experts. i'm bullish on the economy. stuart: okay. i think the china trade deal signed on january 15th, discussions to follow on phase two, i think that takes china trade off the table. i think it's a big plus for the market and the economy. liz: i was talking to people on wall street, including at jpmorgan. they are saying it's already baked in. in other words, the china deal is already in there and they are looking ahead and saying companies aren't going to start reinvesting in the u.s. so you go for the consumer spending stocks, you go for the companies in the oil patch that continue to boom. 12.6 million daily output barrels, huge. and you know, so then you look at the 2020 democrats and they are talking about getting rid of

the oil patch that stopped the u.s. from going into recession last decade and you know, you have joe biden talking about cash for clunkers again, green jobs, that didn't go so well with solyndra and obama. the leadership board is still solid with apple and microsoft, visa, mastercard, bank of america, pretty strong, chevron is strong. stuart: i'm going to put apple and microsoft up on the screen very shortly. those two stocks were the clear winners, leaders, in 2019. give me a couple of names as to other companies which you think might be big winners. liz: home depot, pfizer, chevron, berkshire hathaway class b will be strong, mastercard, visa. at & t is pretty strong and of course, google. stuart: pretty good cross-section of different industries. okay. this is your birthday, isn't it? liz: as you clear your throat. yes, it is. stuart: we recognize it. liz: it's also known as the

christmas reject re-gifting day. i have a closet full of candles and covered hangers and slippers. i'm kidding. stuart: when can i see you on television? liz: at 6:00. stuart: other than now. 6:00 this afternoon? eastern time? liz: that is correct. stuart: the show is? liz: "the evening edit." we have fun. stuart: you do quite well. liz: thank you for that. i learned from you. thank you. stuart: happy birthday, liz. see you. liz: hope so. stuart: are you here for the hour? liz: i'm not sure. if you need it. we'll see. stuart: this is a very big day for retail. this is the day when people return their gifts. lauren: happy birthday to emac. stuart: yes. does the major job of picking up your returns and taking them back, why -- lauren: huge day for ups. they will return about 1.9

million items today, 26% more than last year. this is bad for retailers because they usually pay free shipping, free returns. it's on them if you don't keep something. they are returning it for you on their dime. also, if you are not going into the store to return an item, people still do but a lot of people are just returning them in the mail because it's easier. when you are not in the physical store, you aren't going to replace that item you returned. stuart: so it's bad for ups. this is not good news that they hog the -- lauren: i thought it would be good for them. stuart: the stock is down. lauren: it is down today. stuart: there you go. i want to get back to apple. the stock right now is -- i think it's at a new high. $298.10. that's the all-time high or a couple cents away from it. later we will talk to gene munster. he says apple will hit the $2 trillion valuation in a few years. he's on the show. he's also going to talk about tesla. he says the loss of those tax credits will not be a problem for them at all.

china will make up the slack. is it time to buy tesla? it's now at $423, all-time high. we will ask him about that. first, though, the smoke has cleared in iraq. iranian militia members have retreated from the u.s. embassy in baghdad. just as u.s. troops arrive for support. defense secretary mark esper says he's not ruling out more attacks i guess from the iranians. i've got pete hegseth coming up on that one. and it's thursday. that means "wall street journal" guy dan henninger has a piece and he's on the show. it's all about the roaring '20s. that's from henninger. he's on. that was on the screen -- there were flappers, i think. there you go. that was the 1920s, a hundred years ago. my, what fun. we have new fund-raising numbers from trump, sanders, buttigieg. of course, the president came out on top but by how much? we will break down the numbers with bret baier. stay with us. third hour of "varney & company" rolling on for you. ♪ as a struggling actor,

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stuart: the administration will approve the largest solar farm in the united states and lauren's going to tell us where it is. lauren: the mojave desert in nevada. stuart: how much electricity can it pump out? lauren: a lot of electricity. it also stores that electricity so when the sun goes down, it has electricity in storage. 380 megawatts of four lithium ion batteries. what does that mean? you can get a lot of electricity out of there at a lower price. warren buffett will pay $38 for megawatt hour of electricity which is considered pretty good. it is not approved yet but if it is, 90-day public comment period, it would be the third solar farm on federal land since donald trump has been in office. stuart: it's just been approved, it's not yet been built. lauren: no. it's been built. it hasn't been approved.

just awaiting the public comment period, then it is officially approved. stuart: then it starts pumping out the juice. lauren: exactly. i like that. pump out the juice. turn on the lights. stuart: that's an old-fashioned expression. pumping out the juice. i'm not in touch with these global warming times, perhaps. thank you very much indeed. the iranian supported military trying to take over the embassy in baghdad have retreated and moments ago, however, defense secretary mark esper was on fox news and said look, iran-backed forces may be planning more attacks. watch this. >> based on lessons learned over the past, that we deploy additional forces to either reinforce that site or other sites in iraq or frankly, any other location in the middle east as this thing escalates if it does indeed escalate. stuart: you know, look who we've got with that man right there, the 101st airborne, pete hegseth, "fox & friends" cohost on the weekends. great to see you. i think president trump is

moving heaven and earth to avoid a shooting war with iran. what say you? >> i think you're right. i think his critics are going to say if he goes too far, he overreacted, right? if they had opened fire on the protesters, he's risking an escalation that america doesn't need. if he doesn't go far enough, then he looks weak on the world stage, right. so he can't win either way with his critics but in this particular case, it's pretty hard to criticize the idea that you have a contractor killed, then you respond and kill 25 iranian militia members, then they try to peacefully -- not peacefully, without arms, riot into your embassy, and you know, embassies are quite significant for iran. if you remember 40 years ago, what iran did in our embassy in tehran, effectively triggering and validating their revolution in which they consolidated power. over the last decade or so, they consolidated power inside iraq. iran effectively controls the iraqi government. they want us out because they want to expand their influence even further. where better to start than the

embassy in the hope that you get some marine guards or some contractors or others to overreact or if they don't overreact, maybe they are too weak and then you get benghazi 2.0 and you get president trump put on notice. so i think he handled this precisely the way you would want him to. no reason to escalate into a shooting war. a lot of this comes because iran feels increasing pressure. their economy is being strangled. they don't have good options at home. so they are looking for outlets -- stuart: put them in a box and they are at each other's throats inside iran because conditions are deteriorating significantly. i might add, if the 82nd airborne which has been put on the ready in kuwait, up to 4,000 guys and i don't know, is it -- >> deployed anywhere in the world in 72 hours, shorter if need be, and ultimately, they are saying to iran if you want to escalate again, you are going to deal with american boots. stuart: they retreated from the embassy. >> they did a second day of

protests which were not as big as the first, and it appears they have not done a third which means they have walked back, now, does hezbollah and others have places they could try to hit us, other targets, sure. but this is a new sheriff in town and they know it. i don't care what the media is saying. this is not cash, this is not sailors being seized in the persian gulf. this is not an iran deal that was never good for us. this is maximum pressure, no money, and we will smack you back. the regime knows it. stuart: reminds me of ronald reagan. he comes in in 1980, 1981 and immediately the hostages are returned because it's ronald reagan. this is donald trump. you are not going to get away with this without mentioning comboint. bitcoin. an economist from lending tree, important organization, says bitcoin is a pyramid scheme because you only make money from it based on people who enter after you. now, you are in bitcoin. you bought it. what do you make of it? >> i'm very bullish about the

future. i feel like institutional investors are coming. listen, cryptocurrency, the technology there is revolutionary. here's the challenge, is it hasn't yet found a way to be an effective currency. stuart: right. you can't buy anything with it. >> it is an investment vehicle. if you want an investment vehicle to grow you need other people to invest and the price has to be at a point where others are willing to pay more for it. is that maybe why it stalled at 7,000 or 8,000? potentially. i still think the underlying fundamentals, there are exchanges coming online, big banks, institutional investors about to get involved. i'm telling you, haters will hate when it's tough but it's still got opportunity. listen, but who knows, it's the first mover. the question is, is this myspace or facebook? stuart: a man who is obviously coming down with a cold should not be goaded by someone like me about bitcoin. thank you, pete. good to see you. happy new year to you. >> happy new year to you. happy stu year. stuart: not bad.

not bad. i said it before on this program and i will say it again. i love my gas-powered ford pickup, my f-150. but i also love the acceleration of an electric car. the auto makers are investing some big bucks in both the gas guzzler and the electrics. which one wins in 2020? we are asking our car guy, gary gastelu, next. ♪ through the at&t network, edge-to-edge intelligence gives you the power to see every corner of your growing business. from using feedback to innovate... to introducing products faster... to managing website inventory... and network bandwidth. giving you a nice big edge over your competition. that's the power of edge-to-edge intelligence.

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[ applause and band playing ] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ stuart: last year, there was a big push towards electric cars, but gas is still real, real cheap and we are still buying a lot of suvs. i want to bring in fox news.com automotive editor gary gastelu. look, gary, in 2020, on the one hand you have gas guzzlers being made and bought. on the other hand, electric is coming on strong. if it's a contest, gas guzzler versus electric, who wins in 2020? >> as far as sales are concerned it's going to be a lot of gas again this year. long as the economy and fuel economy and fuel prices hold which they look like they are going to, it's going to be big. big on the trucks, of course, especially with ram getting in there in second place, going to be a lot of incentives, lot of

marketing going around there. gm has its new big suvs coming out. you will see ford which has already seen increasing sales in that segment, marketing against that. lot of competition in those spaces and then the regular [ inaudible ]. chevrolet has the corvette coming out, v-8, they could sell up to 35,000, 40,000 of those. the factory can probably make that many which would be huge for a sports car. stuart: all right. all right. that's the gas guzzler side. they are going to do well. what about the electrics? >> lot more choices in electrics but the plug-in hybrid side, ford has escape, toyota has a rav4 plug-in hybrid. as far as pure electric, this really isn't going to be the big year for that. tesla has the model y which should be a big hit because it's a crossover. the model 3 sells really well. that's a compact sedan. nobody likes compact sedans but they like that. they will like the crossover. it's the following year where we will see bigger numbers on suv electric vehicles. that's when the trucks show up, when the mustang mach-e will go into higher production. it will show up at the end of this year. they won't sell too many in

2020. 2021 will be the first full year it's on the market but look, no guarantee that's going to sell that way. we will see. nobody is having any luck other than tesla so far with electric cars. i'm sure the industry is rooting for the mustang mach-e because if it doesn't, tesla has a clear path to $1,000 a share. stuart: i'm pressing you. in 2020, reading between the lines of what you said, the gas guzzler wins again. >> not going to be the biggest year for electric vehicles. no. [ speaking simultaneously ] >> the big v-8 will win. stuart: thank you. it's like pulling teeth with you guys. thank you very much. coming up, i have tech watcher gene munster on the show. i will pick his brain about tesla and yes, apple. last time he was here, he said apple is going to hit $400 a share. what's he saying now? it's thursday. therefore, dan henninger is on the show. he's got a new piece in the "wall street journal" on the 2020s, asking the simple question, will they roar like they did back in the 1920s?

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stuart: look at this.

we have gone right back up again. the dow industrials well ahead of 28,700. new record highs we have seen earlier on the s&p and on the nasdaq. look at that. the nasdaq is above 9,000. take a look at apple while we're at it. i think they're getting close to $300 a share. $298.11 as we speak. i'm going to bring in our guest who follows apple and our guest says apple's going to reach a valuation of $2 trillion. it's now at $1.3 trillion. gene munster is the man who is saying this. welcome back to the show, gene. if it's valued at $2 trillion, doesn't that mean that the stock goes to $400 a share? make your case. >> a little more than that. it essentially would be about 440 to 450. there's some shares that get moved around with their buy-back but kind of in that range. it would be above $400. it's currently just over 1.3 trillion market cap.

the case is pretty straightforward. if you think about the future of tech, wearables and services in combination with what's going to happen with 5g should yield 10% earnings growth the next few years. the reason why i emphasize three years, a typical professional investor typically thinks about buying a stock for three years. the case is that if you put 10% growth on the current year, extrapolate that to three years, we are just under $19 a share in hard gap earnings. separately, if you apply a 25 multiple on that earnings, that $18 or $19 earnings, that gets you to the $2 trillion. psychologically, that's a big step for investors but i think the fundamentals of what apple is doing around wearable services and software in combination with 5g and its gap earnings power i think justifies this and just to be really clear about the roadmap, how we get there, we think the stock should be valued at some point this year at $350. we think $400 is a very

achievable number for next year. the $2 trillion mark is probably two plus years away but definitely in the realm of where this stock should go. stuart: quite a roadmap you've got there. we will take it. gene munster, thanks a lot. listen to this. i know you follow tesla. the tax credit which you used to get for buying a tesla in america, it's gone. it is no longer existing. you don't think that matters to the stock, do you? by the way, the stock is up eight bucks as we speak. >> i think what ultimately matters is what the demand is. if you think about that $1800 savings, we have seen that decline, it used to be $5,000 a few years ago. a year ago, that was $3700. so when that subsidy essentially, government subsidy declined in the past year, there was a lot of concern from investors that the demand for model 3, demand for tesla, would decline. what we saw is the opposite happen.

in the march quarter, they sold -- delivered 51,000 vehicles and then in june, that stepped up to 92,000, then 97,000 in the september quarter. so what we are seeing is i think buyers are thinking about this more holistically. obviously the tax savings, the tax credit is welcome, but we have done a lot of work around the total cost of ownership, when you factor in fuel savings along with less maintenance, less insurance around these, what we have found over a five-year period, toyota camry is actually 5% more than a model 3. so the simple take-away is that i think the tidal wave around electrification outweighs the head wind into the loss of the tax credit. stuart: you have been right so far on both apple and tesla. gene, thanks for joining us. happy new year to you, lad. >> thank you. happy new year. stuart: all right. yeah, it's thursday. so you better take a look at this headline in the "wall

street journal." will the '20s roar again? the man who wrote that piece is dan henninger, "wall street journal" editorial board guy, frequently on the show on a thursday and he's here today. so, answer the question. will the 2020s roar like the 1920s did? >> i think the possibility is that they will, stuart. but let's look at why the 1920s were the roaring '20s. people think it's always about dancing, people going wild, drinking, prohibition, all that. no. it was called the roaring '20s because the '20s were a period of economic boom in the united states and across the world. the auto industry exploded, big cities, new york, chicago, los angeles, grew, other industries grew, and let's look at why that was. the top marginal tax rate in 1920 was 77%. largely because of world war i. then treasury secretary andrew mellon along with president

calvin coolidge eared thr nginee tax cuts and by the i believe in of the 1920s, the top marginal rate was down to 25%. on an income of $100,000. the economy boomed as a result of the mellon tax cuts just as they did in 1960s with the kennedy tax cut, reagan's cuts in the 1980s and donald trump's in 2017. that's what has been going on. now, we know that herbert hoover signed the smoot-hawley tariff in 1930, exacerbated the depression. donald trump loves tariffs but what has he done in the last two weeks, stuart? pulled back from the tariffs, done the trade deals, his phase one with china, pulled back a lot of his tariffs which i think shows that he's going to be more like coolidge, kennedy and reagan than herbert hoover and keep your eye on the fact that if he wins re-election, what's going to continue?

deregulation of the private sector. that has been going on in the background. this is one of the biggest underreported stories out there. i think it's entirely possible that the 2020s under donald trump could roar just as they did a hundred years ago. stuart: what a contrast. you look at the media, it's all doom and gloom, always something wrong, whining and moaning left, right and center and here you are saying we might get another roaring '20s. what a place to have you on the show. >> it's nice to be optimistic at the beginning of a new year but i think it's right. we have been reporting for a year, what's been going on in the private economy is extraordinary. the jobs numbers, month after month, as in the 1920s, it just didn't happen. it just doesn't drop out of the sky, right? it's because of discrete economic policies and the sort of things they did in the 1920s is what trump has been doing now. stuart: that's a great start for the new year. this is great. henninger, you are all right.

>> let us hope. stuart: let us hope. thank you, dan. appreciate it, always. the fda will ban all e-cigarettes flavors except tobacco and menthol. edward lawrence in washington with details. what do you have? reporter: yeah, this is basically a compromise from the administration, which originally last september said they wanted to ban all vaping. a senior administration official tells me that limited ban will be announced later on this afternoon. now, this all stems from, as you may remember, a meeting here at the white house on november 22nd, when you had senator mitt romney, president donald trump as well as vaping executives where an argument broke out, playing out live on television about vaping. the executive said people used vaping to get off of smoking, as a step. that seemed now to sway the president into this limited ban which is expected, as i said, the fda to announce later on this afternoon. as the president went to play golf today, there were opponents and supporters of this limited ban lining his route on his way to go play golf but again, it looks like a limited ban, the

executives may have won out over that debate there, the limited ban looks like it will be going into effect or be announced later this afternoon. stuart: got it. edward lawrence, thank you very much. happy new year to you, young man. see you soon. i missed this. recreational marijuana became legal in illinois on new year's day which was just yesterday. lauren, are they expecting big sales? i'm sure they are. lauren: huge. so recreational marijuana at the top end, $700 million in revenue a year, out of all marijuana, at the top end, about $2.5 billion. so 28%. it's taxed a lot. the higher you want to get, the higher the tax you pay. if there's more than 35% thc content, you pay 25% tax. add local taxes to that, this is a big source of revenue for illinois. stuart: i think i saw video early this morning, maybe we have it now, of the illinois lieutenant governor who was the very first, that lady right

there, the very first to buy legal pot and she did that yesterday. i don't know whether she actually lined up, because there was a big line. maybe she had a proxy there. but she took the first legal marijuana home right there in illinois. lauren: julianna stratton. she bought edible. this is what the governor was excited about. she pardoned 11,000 low level marijuana convictions. so for her, that was a big deal. that's why she was online. stuart: fair enough. thank you very much. now this. a fourth quarter fund-raising numbers coming to us from the campaigners, that is. people are shelling out some serious money for bernie sanders and for mayor pete. but it's president trump who trumps them all. he's brought in a ton of money. we will give you the numbers in a moment. i will get some reaction to my editorial from bret baier. remember, i said at the top of the hour the democrats are angry, divided and out of touch. what does bret baier say about the democrats? we'll be right back.

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trust aag for the best reverse mortgage solutions. so you can... retire better. stuart: all right. here they come, the numbers on campaign fund-raising. i think we've got numbers from mr. trump, from bernie sanders and mayor pete. what are those numbers? lauren: president trump, while democrats were pursuing impeachment at the end of last year, the campaign, $46 million. bernie sanders, almost $35 million. what a year. 2019, for pete buttigieg, no one heard of him at the beginning of the year. at the end, $24.7 million. that was his fund-raising tally. that's not bad. but you also have mayor bloomberg, who is using his own money. stuart: wait a minute. doesn't mr. trump also have money available from the rnc which is a separate fund-raising operation? lauren: absolutely. that was not included in the numbers we just gave you.

stuart: big numbers for the president. lauren: huge numbers. stuart: let's bring in bret baier. welcome back to the program. happy new year to you. what do you read into these numbers, the campaign fund-raising numbers? >> two sides. one is that president trump is capitalizing on the anger about impeachment among his voters, his supporters and even some independents, really capitalizing and making about $10 million in the day of the impeachment vote. $26 million for the quarter is a big deal but the bigger number, $105 million cash on hand for a campaign that is just putting out ads and spreading the seeds before even a nominee is decided on the democratic side. on the democratic side, you have to give bernie sanders credit. remember, he's raising money with some 20 candidates there, and $34.5 million for the quarter, but the biggest part of that is that most if not all of those donations are small donations, about $18 each. so a lot of those people have a lot of upside that they can still donate to, which gives

bernie sanders a lot of potential power going forward. stuart: bernie sanders has 730,000 individual contributors, i guess is the word, and if they average $18 apiece, that is a very -- that's a small donation spread over a very large number of people. that's powerful stuff, i would say. >> it is. for all the people that thought after his heart attack he was going to be withering and not being on the trail, he has only been more empowered and i think he's going to be a factor in iowa and new hampshire. stuart: i know that you are a straight line political guy. you don't take sides. you are right down the middle and i respect that. i'm the opinion guy here. that's my hedge. at the top of the hour, i issued forth an editorial saying that the democrats were angry, divided and out of touch. without getting too far into political bias, one way or the other, what do you make of my editorial? >> i think it has yet to play out.

i think that clearly the impeachment focus has been a negative draw on the polls because it took -- it shifted, you know. about two weeks ago, the numbers went upside down against impeachment and removal. there are a lot of shoes that could drop in the senate trial that we don't yet know, but really, the focus that to your point, is the split within the democratic party. there's the progressive side, bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, and really, the fight for the biden, klobuchar, buttigieg trying to say you have to be more moderate to beat donald trump. i think there is some disarray, but they have a long way to figure it out once they get a nominee, it will be all anti-trump behind one person. stuart: you and martha are going to be handling the lion's share of the political stuff this year. it's going to be an extraordinary year. are you going into training of some sort? >> you know, this is really the super bowl, as we get ready for the super bowl, which by the way is on fox. but that week we will be in iowa

for the caucuses, the next week we are in new hampshire. that cascade of events happens after we go through a senate trial here in washington. i mean, the political implications of just the first couple of months, stuart, are just huge. stuart: i love it. i don't know about you, but i absolutely love it. i feel very much involved in it. actually, i feel privileged to be sitting here as history is being made and reporting on vibrant history of america. >> i feel the same way. it's an honor, it really is. it is history unfolding. some of this stuff has never happened before. clearly these candidates we have seen, we have never seen before and this election starting now, once you get to the general election, is going to be -- i just think it's going to be as wild as we have ever seen. stuart: i hope. bret baier, we will be watching tonight, of course. we thank you for being with us this morning. bret baier, everyone. thank you, sir. big new year -- lots of new laws, state laws, i should say,

new laws coming, different things, guns, privacy, electric cars. give me a rundown of the big new laws. lauren: i have five. start in california. your privacy is being protected. you can see what data companies have on you, you can ask them to renew it, you get your privacy back. but this is an onus for some of the big companies like facebook, for instance. in colorado, the red flag law, what that means is a family member or police officer, for instance, can petition a court to have guns seized from someone they think is a threat. that's the law in colorado. electric car fees. states aren't getting as much money from gas cars so there are taxes on electric vehicles. for instance, $200 in ohio and alabama. new york bail reform. this is controversial. it eliminates pretrial detention and you no longer have to put up cash or bond to be held. so essentially, you are kept out of jail until your case is resolved and finally, in oregon, you can't use plastic bags. if you do, that business is

fined $250 for each day that they give you a plastic bag. bring your own. stuart: new laws. there you have it. thanks, lauren. next one, joe biden. add this one to the gaffe counter. he took on coal miners at a recent town hall in new hampshire. he said anybody who can throw coal into a furnace can learn how to program a computer. he said that. next, we will get the response from the pennsylvania coal alliance. i will guarantee the lady who is with us is not happy. we'll be right back. ♪

stuart: joe biden spoke at an event in new hampshire on monday and he said coal miners should learn to code. watch this. >> he asked me toward the end of our administration joe's going to determine what the jobs of the future are, anybody who can go down 300 to 3,000 feet in a mine sure in hell can learn how to program as well. anybody that can throw coal into a furnace can learn how to program, for god's sake. stuart: this requires a response and for that response, we turn

to pennsylvania coal alliance, the executive director thereof, rachel gleason, who joins us now. rachel, thanks for being with us. would you just give us your reaction to what joe biden said? >> thank you for having me. at the outset i think it's disappointing that any presidential candidate would be advocating for devastating pennsylvanian communities and it is concerning that he thinks the solution for those job losses is coding. it's clear that his campaign did not educate him on the failed attempts in west virginia to coal miners and beyond that, retraining programs have a very limited and questionable success rate. stuart: i thought listening to those remarks, he was somewhat dismissive of coal miners and code writers, actually, assuming that you could go from one to the other very easily. it seemed rather dismissive to me. in fact, it reminded me of hillary clinton talking about

west virginia coal miners and saying i'm going to put you guys out of business. that's not a good political statement, if you ask me. >> i would agree. i think it was incredibly insulting. our miners love what they do and they are very very trained. it's a highly technical job as it is. the average pennsylvania coal miner makes over -- underground coal miner makes over $100,000 a year. stuart: is that right? hold on a second. rach rachel, hold on a second. i did not know that. the average coal miner in pennsylvania, you represent the coal people of pennsylvania, they make over $100,000 a year? really? >> the average underground coal miner in pennsylvania makes over $100,000 a year. to infer that you can replace that kind of salary for the number of miners that we have with some coding job is just, it's insulting. stuart: you think joe biden, if he were the candidate, could win pennsylvania? >> you know, i can't project that at this point, but you know, in western pennsylvania,

where we have quite a significant coal community, our coal community, our coal miners and coal operators contribute over $6 billion to pennsylvania's economy annually. i think making those kind of comments does not help him at all. stuart: i think you're right. rachel, thanks for joining us. we appreciate it. i'm sorry it was so short but you got your word in and we appreciate it. rachel gleason. thanks very much. >> thank you for having me. stuart: sure thing. all right. netflix, churning out more movies than any hollywood studio. and they won an oscar. we will deal with that in a moment. ♪ beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. all working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gig-speed network.

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stuart: nice queue there. >> we got caught. stuart: i was about to go back on the air, our floor manager said, you're on.

here i am. netflix made more movies in 2019 than any studio. about 60 i think. lauren: is that right? it was about 60? that is more than any studio? lauren: talking about all the good movies we've seen. netflix is completely rivalling a hollywood studio at this point. they're bringing in top talent like martin core says see and they have two two move is have that could ina best picture story for a streaming site, the marriage story and "the irishman." stuart: they have been always dismissed by the hollywood crowd, this is tv or television stuff, not movies we've been making for a hundred years. will they relent on that? lauren: they have already. netflix is the sweet spot because they abandoned at adult do ma and mystery. the murder mystery was the

highest rated. stuart: knives out, that is a murder mystery. excellent movie. our time is up, regret to say. we leave you a the market almost al the high point of the day. we're up 180. blake burman in near neil, i know it is yours. blake: did you make it through tree hours of "the irishman"? stuart: no i didn't. blake: i'm like burman in for neil cavuto today. the first "coast to coast" for 2020. we're over four weeks from the iowa caucuses. candidates roaring into the '20s with big fund-raising spikes. the trump campaign announced it brought in some $46 million in just the fourth quarter alone. the last three months of last year.