extraordinarily no. charles: i'm looking for a yes and no. >> no. charles: [laughter] rob thanks a lot buddy we'll talk to you again real soon. >> take care. charles: i'm going to say we can. i'd give it a 10% probability, liz claman, because the last hour of trading has been magical >> liz: i'll give it a 12%. so that we're at least not the same charles thank you very much and we're going to be watching it all for all of you. it took less than 48 hours for 2020s first black swan to crash on wall street. the u.s. air strike that obliterated top iranian general qassem soleimani triggered initial and very deep early morning sell-off but as we head into the final hour of trademar, and in some cases much of those losses. dow jones industrial down 177, s&p lower by 15 and the nasdac down 48. the iranians vowing harsh retaliation after the u.s. attack took out that man on your screen, the general that

the trump adminitration blames for the deaths of hundreds of american soldiers in iraq. the headlines are hitting the tapes fast and furious and the markets are responding in kind. our floor show traders are in front of our cameras right now on the latest stock, bond and other asset-class moves. we've got new developments in the great escape of auto industry carlos ghosn from house arrest in japan. surveillance footage of his escape has been located plus allegations of falsified flight records, this as ghosn is slap ped by interpol with the notice, the international wanted poster and hedge fund giant has had an epic run with interpol and he literally wrote the book in a fox business exclusive, the capital ceo is here on what the red notice really means and what might happen next to carlos ghos n. plus silly silicon valley legend , the great chairman is

here to tell us which unicorns he's hunting in the new year. safe haven gold speaking and so is bitcoin. with less than an hour to the closing bell on a very busy friday, let's start the countdown. >> liz: oh, boy remember at this time yesterday we were talking at what it might take for stock market records to recede. well the u.s. air strike in iraq was on no one's radar at least almost no one's radar but here we are and boy had that changed. look no further than the vix or fear index right out of the gate and you can see from this one month picture but if you looked at the intraday you'd see the real drop initially the volatility gauge spiked 29%, hitting its highest level since december 10 and it has calmed down markedly here up 8.5% but having come from 29% you can see that spike intraday, we're way

off the fear levels let's go to crude prices speaking here on fear of supply disruption, as you know we should tell you that iran and iraq together equal about 6.8 million-barrels per day of crude. there are two versions of crude, west texas intermediate which is the version searching to an eight-month high that did settle up 3% at around $63 a barrel and it's right at that line at the moment, and brent crude which trades in london overseas jumped to a three-month high which means all kinds of fuel including jet fuel immediately rose in price. collateral damage so to speak showed up immediately in the commodities market and travel stocks from airlines like delta, united, southwest all in this final hour are still down but mostly off the lows of the session, you could also throw cruise operators in there, norwegian, carnival and royal caribbean all lower by anywhere from three-quarters of a percent to 2% lower for norwegian and carnival. stock investors immediately turn

tail. that's not really a shocker, or surprise but they headed straight towards the safety of government debt. 10 year treasury yields sank to three-week lows the low of the point was above 1.7% and then we came up off that floor, to about 1.803, and now we're back down to 1.79 so we're down nearly 9 basis points from yesterday. the drop in benchmark yields dragged down bench shares, citigroup, goldman sachs all moving lower from a percent down to about one and a third percent and i want to look at gold okay folks, this is always a classic and it raced past the $1,550 an ounce level we're just below that right now still up 1.5% or $21 to 1,546 an ounce and i don't want to insult anybody, but some people call bitcoin a pseudo safety asset others say it's an absolute safety asset.

bitcoins seen the biggest percentage jump of all of the asset classes we've just outlin ed up nearly 6%. it's up $390 per coin, standing at $7,342 per coin. defense stocks moving those up, reacting exactly how you would expect them to after an air strike involving the u.s. and iran, lockheed martin, north rope, general dynamics these are major u.s. defense contractors holding most of their gains we should tell you that lockheed martin up $12.83 at $412, hit an all-time high earlier of $417, all of these are still green on the screen. let me get to the map. the area shown here on the screen is where u.s. military drones over baghdad launched the strike, which eliminated the most, if not one of the most, powerful military figures in iran, general qassem soleimani. soleimani is the leader of the infamous sources the main

architect of iran's proxy wars in the middle east taken out in response to this weeks attack on the u.s. embassy in iraq. on your screen, the picture montage from the drones that pulled this off called mq-9 reaper drones, iran's foreign minister called the attack an act of international terrorism, and by the way in just about the last hour, said that the move was on extremely dangerous foolish escalation. meanwhile, u.s. officials announcing just a short while ago that an additional 3,000 more u.s. troops are now deploy ing to the middle east. let's get to the white house, blake burman is there with the latest on all pieces of this story, still unfolding at this hour. blake what can you tell us? >> blake: liz we are expecting 3,000 u.s. troops to be headed to kuwait according to the defense department, kuwait of course on the southern border of iraq. a spokesperson over at the pentagon within the past hour here described that decision as a "appropriate and precautionary action." now, president trump earlier today tweeted that qassem

soleimani who for years was recognized as a terrorist by the u.s. government dating all the way back to 2005 the president said was actively plotting against the u.s.. here is what he said on twitter. that soleimani has killed or badly wounded thousands of americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more, but got caught. the secretary of state mike pompeo this morning, echoed those comments as well saying that soleimani was spearheading an imminent plot. meantime, here in washington d.c., there is a debate breaking out about whether this air strike, this decision from the commander-in-chief was both legal and prudent. mitch mcconnell and chuck schumer both took to the senate floor earlier this afternoon. listen here. in recent days and weeks he and his terrorists posed an ongoing and growing threat to american lives, and american interest. >> how does the administration plan to manage an escalation of

hostilities and how does the administration plan to avoid a larger and potentially endless middle east. >> blake: of course liz one of the big questions going forward is how might iran respond to all of this, really, no way to answer that question, standing here at this moment though national security sources do tell fox that one way that they could potentially go about it would be with cyberattacks. we'll see, liz? >> liz: blake burman please interrupt us if you get anything more from the white house, thank you so much. traders haven't had a moment to breathe with these fast breaking developments. let's interrupt them for a moment and head to the floor show beginning at the new york stock exchange, tim anderson, when i just look at the lows of the session for the dow down 368 or even nasdac was down 115 points, we have scratched and clawed back a lot. what's your sense is there another shoe to drop here? >> i just think all of the action we've seen the first two

days of the year have been really in high beta, high cap and mega cap stocks, evident by the fact that yesterday the dow was up 1.2% nasdac up a similar amount but advancers only led decliners by about 3-2. today we've got a little bit more than we've given up about half of those gains and really the declining issues are only about 250 ahead of advancing issues. so really, this is investors just reacting in the biggest names in their portfolio, tweek ing around the edges a little bit, and probably yesterday investing all the cash that they possibly could on the first day of the year so that if the market went on a runaway train, higher they wouldn't get caught so drastically behind a performance like they did last year. >> liz: this is a classic black swan event, ira, something that is unexpected that shakes the foundational be it for a very

short time here, i wouldn't call this a massive sell-off by any stretch of the imagination but is it a warning sign for equity investors trader like yourself to just be careful of what comes in as sort of a side window drama each time? >> i've been writing in my report that this was going to happen. not obviously off of iran but you go into a consolidation as tim knows we were talking on the last show. we were bullish as could be going into the end of the year. markets don't grow through the sky. people think that but it's not how it works. consolidation necessary, whether it came from iran, you're only down a half a point maybe a point in some of the key markets let it consolidate. we've gone a long way since december 1. december 1 take a look at how much you gained. >> liz: that is true and chris down at the cme, you've got to tell me where you see the flows. are people sort of stuck in place waiting to see what happens next? >> no i think if anybody took protection they did it last

night. a lot of people were up all night long, because it looked like we might really roll over we were down 300 points in the dow it's one percentage point. one percentage points that's noise, really anything less than 5%, so a lot of people thought we might have a 1,500 point move in the dow, and it didn't, so it came back, well i think a lot of people you have to remember you get long in new york, you buy your protection in chicago and that's what these are here for. one s&p mini contract can cover about $150,000 worth of stock basket so that's the first place people go, so i think you've seen they hit it early and we've calmed down here a little bit and again, i would say sunday night we'll see what happens again. if we get through the weekend with no issues you could probably see a resumption of the rally but a lot of people have taken protection and you do that by buying s&p puts, buying vix calls. >> liz: tim, ira, chris it is going to be a busy weekend people should be keeping their

eye, at least one of them on fox business.com for any breaking news and i appreciate it gentlemen. i know its been a very busy day for all of you. we've got the closing bell ring ing in 58 minutes the dow 30 heat map plus pretty much flaming red as we head into the close, walgreens trying to escape the heat, managing to just techno the upside by $0.24 and this as interpol is turning up the heat on master of disguise carlos ghosn. his great escape from japan via lib a none to turkey triggering the global crime fighting body to issue a so-called red notice on the nissan chief. up next the man who knows all too well what it's like to have a worldwide warrant on his head. the international hedge fund investor who found himself targeted by the kremlin. bill browder, putin's nemesis and author of "red notice" on carlos ghosn's road ahead.

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>> liz: president trump has just stood before the cameras let's listen in as he speaks on the u.s. air strike that killed iran 's top commander. president trump: its ruthless ku ds force under soleimani's leadership has targeted, injured and murdered hundreds of american civilians and service men, the recent attacks on u.s. targets in iraq, including rocket strikes that killed an american and injured four american servicemen very badly, as well as a violent assault on our embassy and baghdad were carried out at the direction of soleimani. soleimani made the death of innocent people his sick passion , contributing to terrorist plots as far away as new delhi and london, and today we remember and honor the victims of soleimani's many atrocities and we take comfort in knowing that his reign of

terror is over. soleimani has been perpetrating acts of terror to destabilize the middle east for the last 20 years. what the united states did yesterday should have been done long ago. a lot of lives would have been saved just recently soleimani led the brutal repression of protesters in iran, where more than a thousand innocent civilians were tortured and killed by their own government. we took action last night to stop a war. we did not take action to start a war. i have deep respect for the iranian people. they are a remarkable people with an incredible heritage and unlimited potential. we did not seek regime change however the iranian regime's aggression in the region including the use of proxy

fighters to destabilize its neighbors must end and it must end now. the future belongs to the people of iran, those who seek peaceful co-exist and cooperation, not the terrorists warlords, who plunder their nation to finance blood shed abroad. the united states has the best military by far anywhere in the world. we have the best intelligence in the world if americans anywhere are threatened we have all of those targets already fully identified and i am ready and prepared to take whatever action is necessary and that in particular refers to iran. under my leadership we have destroyed the isis territorial caliphate and recently american special operations forces killed the terrorist leader known as al

baghdadi, the world is a safer place without these monsters. america will always pursue the interests of good people, great people, great souls, while seeking peace, harmony and friendship, with all of the nations of the world. thank you, god bless you, god bless our great military, and god bless the united states of america. thank you very much. thank you. >> reporter: mr. president, thank you. thank you. >> liz: all right, a relatively short statement from president trump at marlin florida where he is about to depart and we should tell you that the president just as we understand it, opened the window albeit slightly, into what sparked the air strike that pinned the master mining of terror plots he said from new delhi to london, on this general , who was pretty much obliterated by the u.s. drone strike the president saying we

did not take action to start a war, we took it to stop a war hinting that there is intelligence certainly that there may have been a fresh or new attack this according to president trump. all right let me bring in bill b rowder. bill understands international drama and of course we do have an important note to mention about carlos ghosn. we'll get to that because that's why bill you are here but bill is the author of "red notice" and there is a retaliatory notice out but just indulge me here for a moment. you know the way vladimir putin thinks. vladimir putin been helping the iranians in the middle east. do you think right now, vladimir putin is speaking to the iranians about how to react to what the united states has done? >> well, this iranian commander was the chief connector to russia. russia was talking to him on a

regular basis about how to go about bombing civilians in syria and various other things and this guy is sort of the glue that holds all of these evil regimes together so on one hand, vladimir putin is sort of terrified and confused, and on the other hand he's probably happy to watch oil prices speaking since he's a big oil supplier, but surely, everybody all over the world are stretch ing their heads wondering what's going to happen next. >> liz: well what is going to happen next? do you really think that putin is really nervous about this? >> well he's got to be nervous. he is an international rogue. he's a terrorist by various measures, and he's watched a person slightly lower down in the hierarchy in iran get taken out by a u.s. drone strike. that's got to breathe the fear of god into him and every other evil dictator around the world to see if you step too far you

could just get personally killed >> liz: well we're watching that part of the story. we've got this breaking news as it relates to carlos ghosn. a turkish news agency is ruling a court arrested five suspects who have been detained as part of the investigation into the so-called great escape of the auto executive who it appears now just walked out of his home, where he was under house arrest, in japan. and there is this so call red notice put out for carlos ghosn by interpol. you had a red notice put out because russia trumped up charge against you after you accused putin and russia of having murdered your accountant after he uncovered mass corruption at the government level. talk about carlos ghosn and what happens to him. what can he and can he not or should he not do? >> well basically when interpol

issues a red notice, when japan issues a red notice through interpol, what the that means is that any border that mr. ghosn tries to cross he will be arrested. it's effectively an international arrest warrant. you can't travel anywhere without being arrested so the first thing is that although he's escaped japan, he's now in his own mini exile in lebanon because if he were to travel anywhere beyond lebanon, he would be arrested in just about any country. >> liz: okay so it doesn't appear though that lebanon is ready to give up one of their own. he is lebanese born, but if you look at interpol, you've got to figure that they don't have the right to actually force a country to give up somebody, they just do requested your situation is very interesting. you found yourself on the receiving end of a notice, a red notice, when you and your company, this hedge fund came into vladimir putin's crosshairs , and you showed up

back in russia because you're working there and had your hedge fund there and what happened to you? you were expelled. >> so i was exposing corruption in the companies that i was investing in, the big gas company and many other companies and obviously the people who are corrupt which goes right up to vladimir putin, didn't like me exposing the corruption and so i was expelled from the country and declared a threat to national security, my offices were raided, my lawyer was arrested in 2008, tortured for 358 days, and killed on novembei went after the russians and i said that they should not have been allowed to kill him. they should face justice. i've been on a 10 year campaign and a piece of legislation was ultimately passed in the name of my lawyer in 2012 in the united states which imposes asset

freezes and visa sanctions on corrupt human rights violators in russia, and in retaliation to that the russian government issued a red notice for me and thankfully, interpol while it's sort of an automatic u.n.-type of organization when we presented the facts to interpol, they said yeah, you're right this is outrageous, and they deleted it and they said this is a politically-motivated red notice. since then rush has tried seven more times to abuse the interpol system. russia is a serial abuser of interpol as are many other countries. >> liz: well could that happen to carlos ghosn? apparently they don't believe his innocence. he maintains his innocence. he says he didn't flee justice. he fled "injustice." he's argued japan's legal system is rigged against the accused. interpol looked at the facts and decided to go ahead with the red

notice anyway. does ghosn have a case? >> well so all we know is the japanese side of the story, they had from last year, basically blackened carlos ghosn's name and they haven't allowed him to tell his side of the story and so now he's free to tell his side of the story and i'm very interested in hearing his side of the story. some of the facts just on the surface don't look too good for the japanese. the fact they have a 99% conviction rate doesn't stand up to scrutiny and the facts that they refused him any contact with his wife, that's odd. the fact that he was in solitary confinement for 23 days when they first arrested him. >> liz: with no lawyer. >> none of these things look good on the surface but i would imagine once his side of the story is out then he can make his case to interpol and see whether he can make the argument that yes, it was an ill- legitimate arrest warrant. >> liz: author of red notice and we appreciate you coming in for

the perspective only you have, you have lived a fascinating life. we are so interested in how you put this forward, and we'll have you join us again, thank you so much. >> thank you. >> liz: we're looking at the dow jones industrial is down about 206 points right now i want to head to christina partsinevelos for today's fox business brief. kristina: thank you, liz you've got new middle east worries you've been talking about that's not stopping tesla, the ev maker hitting a new all-time high, after delivering 112,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, beating analyst estimates and tesla also lowering prices on its china-made model 3 sedans by 16% after receiving government subsidies. shares surging well past that $420 figure, ceo elon musk is taking the company private. currently, shares are up about a little bit less than 4% and we've got retail giant l brands soaring after bank of america upgraded shares to a buy. the brokerage shouting out, bath

& body works as one of the "best stories in retail el brands up 7.5% on track for its biggest percentage gain in over six months, and we've got disney plus responding to outraged fans after a number of hit films including the sandlot mysterously disappeared from the digital service and reps saying the problem will be resolved soon reportedly blaming some unresolved legacy deals, and over streaming rights for the disappearance. but up next, private equity legend talks the biggest ipo of 2020 and the "claman countdown" is coming right back. beyond the routine checkups. beyond the not-so-routine cases. comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways.

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>> liz: listen on a day like this a 10 point increase in the

loss as we're watching all of it and what did we see stocks extended losses at least for the dow by about 30 points in the moments after president trump just spoke from mar-a-lago, he did not make any comments after but he did say that he and the administration pulled off this air strike against the iranian general to prevent a war, not to start a war. we do still have some strength when it comes to things like volatility index and bitcoin, but the markets tech titans are all in the red at this hour, facebook hitting a new 52 week high though earlier this morning , and google also hit a high note earlier in trading, but just about everything is down by about a third of a percent too from one and a third percent. all right let's spin it forward to the new year, 2020. 2020 is said to be the yeaher that should bring us the much- awaited opportunity for investors to finally buy shares in airbnb. the home sharing company, which has now 150 million users in more than 65,000 cities, but

while the company which some consider a technology company is currently valued around $35 billion and a new report out details that airbnb's new years eve guest volume showed its falling growth rate. is airbnb setting the tone for i po's to come in 2020 or is that just a blip? we bring in the founding father of venture capital alan patrick, whose played a significant role in the growth of companies from office depot, apple, american online, aol, current investments , include the real- real, venmo, and plated and we welcome alan, you know how to pick them. >> i hope so. every once in a while we get it right. >> liz: let's tackle airbnb. is this the year finally? >> it's interesting, they are portraying airbnb as if it were down in its count for new years traffic. it wasn't they were down just the growth rate was less so that's really a little different

than having traffic. >> liz: that's a classic until you see it from the glass half full or the glass half empty. analysts would see it half empty >> no, i think airbnb is really a great icon of the companies that seem to do it right that have built the company, have financed it appropriately and it just seems to grow and from what i understand, it's not just overnight stays that they're getting they are planning on things that involve long term real estate, i'm not intimately involved but they are thinking as a concept in terms of short-term stays, extended stays , and building facilities for that, so it sounds to me like its got a very very good future. >> liz: i agree i think it's a brilliant business and the opportunities to scale up are almost endless. let's go unicorn hunting. this year we're also expecting to see ipo's from postmates maybe casper, the mattress company. would you be cautious or is it something where you say let's jump into some of these names.

>> well, i would always be cautious and be looking at the economic model, including airbnb i think the problem that we had last year and why you saw a lot of these companies sell-off was they went public and then people started looking, does the emperor have clothes on and the economic model did not prove out the margins did not increase as volume increased and they just in creased losses and i think that if airbnb or any other companies can show sustainable, long term earnings, and good margins and can give people confidence they are actually going to break into the black i think they will do fine and the way the ipo works is it has windows, it opens and the window closes. the window closed for a while with wework, my sense is the window is opened now it's a new year, there are no clouds necessarily overhanging, so i think they are going to start seeing ipo's come out and they will do fine with the right economic model.

>> liz: i'm trying to wrap my mind around the fact so many of these companies whether it's the real-real where you really have promoted that you invested in it , our whole team, we're big fans of it. we like the lesser expensive cha nel purses. >> me too. >> liz: they provide an amazing service, great deal. uber and lyft too and yet, are they destined to simply be great services that don't make money? >> well, i think that's going to be the ultimate test. when they start showing the fact that they can grow volume, and translate that into progress, we're very excited about the real-real, its been public for six or seven months, it had a momentary euphoric rise, now settled back down and the public offering price is around 20 and it's pretty close to that and i think we'll see what this year-end results look, but we're optimistic, but i don't have any insight into it we're not on the board, but we're still very positive in the outlook for the

company. >> liz: you know when you listen on the radio -- >> i'm glad you're a customer. i hope you buy and sell. >> liz: unfortunately, we'd be remiss if we didn't bring up david stern who just passed the nba commissioner who died of a brain hemorrhage at the age of 77. you knew him but not only did you know him, he came to work for you after he retired from the nba? he came to work for you? >> i don't want to portray it too strong. we didn't pay him. >> liz: [laughter] wait a minute he worked for no money? >> i think he was just intrigued and i happened to meet him at the right time and said he hadn't figured out what he was going to do afterwards and i said why don't you come and join us on a regular basis every monday morning. >> liz: his card, we just took it down but it was on the screen , can we show that again, he had the cards ordered that said david stern, intern. >> i have to say that was my idea. everyone thought i was crazy but david loved carrying it around

and he really was a special advisor to the firm and it was very helpful not just in sports, but in companies that required real managerial talent and he could always be counted on to give a very insightful, responsive viewpoint on something and he was, the thing i liked best about him is if he didn't know something, he would ask the dumb questions which everybody else wanted to ask but they didn't have the guts to do it and so we all learned from the presence of having him around. he is going to be sorely missed by a lot of people. >> liz: is there something we don't know about david stern? >> you doesn't know perhaps he was an intern. >> liz: [laughter] we knew we got the card. >> well, i don't know, but i can tell you in the last four or five years, he became a venture capitalist and so he would invest in companies alongside us that was part of the deal.

>> liz: show me some of the money here. >> yeah and i couldn't in contain his enthusiasm for some of these companies and i would say david, let's slow down, these companies, you don't just take one bite of the apple, you're going to be there, there's another round pretty soon, you know, the early stage and they needed, they keep on needing capital and you better get prepared so he tempered, i'm interested to see what that portfolio is going to look like. we're going to have a little dinner for him, one of the friends of his whose been very helpful is going to give a small dinner for all of the companies he invested in who are at ces. i don't know how many companies will be there. >> liz: can i be an usher or a waiter? i'll be at ces. >> go to the dinner. >> liz: good to see you. i do have to ask you about this black swan event in general, black swan events, does that scare you off from investing? >> which one? >> liz: there's so many but the one today obviously the one

overnight with the general from iran who was hit in the strike. no people get nervous when they see these types of things but it almost appears like it's a short-term spasm in the market. >> i think that people like drama. this is a dramatic event at the moment it'll pass by, and you know, the concern about retribution but we've had retribution going on for the last, you know, umteen years now of terrorist groups attacking our facilities and our people and certainly everybody has to be concerned about it but i think this too shall pass. i don't think it's going to have a long term impact on the market or even, i think it's over. the impact is over. >> liz: although we could see things happen afterward who knows if there will be retribution. >> we're living in a world this is a given constant unfortunately. >> liz: maybe that's why the markets absorb it rather well although the dow down about 242. >> and up 300 yesterday.

>> liz: exactly, and i guess that when we look at stocks and investing and the markets overall, people are saying that with this upcoming election that could be a black swan event in and of itself. >> i hope so. i hope my candidate creates it. >> liz: and your candidate is? >> joe biden. >> liz: not michael bloomberg as a businessman. >> i love michael and he would make a great president, but it's a little, i think, came in a little late, but we'll see. i mean, i think joe biden certainly looks like he's in the lead in the democratic group so far. >> liz: it's great to see you allen thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. happy new year. >> liz: happy new year to you too. we'll be taking a much closer look at what technology has to offer. you heard me say it we head to las vegas next week, for ces, two full days, you will slip like i did at samsung's virtual reality simulate or that was on varney's show, we'll be revved up like panasonic's all-electric

harley we'll speak with celebrities, like floyd may weather and delta airlines ceo will be with us, cox communications president pat ess er is going to give us an on the ground exclusive tour of the new raider stadium in vegas. discovery is joining us and we'll take you inside the plant- based food craze with impossible foods ceo, patrick brown. plus, all the great gadgets that maybe might change your life. countdown's coverage of ces begins tuesday. the "claman countdown" is coming right back. (chime) (shaq) magenta? i hate cartridges! not magenta! not magenta. i'm not going back to the store. magenta! cartridges are so... (buzzer) (vo) the epson ecotank. no more cartridges. it comes with an incredible amount of ink that can save you a lot of frustration.

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>> liz: we thought that was interesting you just heard venture call tap it's tell us that on days with worrisome news

flow and a drop like this on the dow intraday, that is worrisome and scary, right? but alan said this too shall pass. we thought let's give you a little history lesson. we've had quite a few mid east crisis, let's look back to 2019 where the dow was moving up in a tight percentage range except for in september when the saudi arabia oil complex was attacked by iranian drone squads and iran oil tank eattack on july of 2013 up a third of a percent iran shut down adrenine the u.s. on the 20th of june, market went up a percent, embassy attack was at the end of december up a quarter of a percent. we want to bring in paul dietric h, the new portfolio manager at b. riley wealth management, $10 billion in assets under management and the

cme group john bagliardi and phil flynn. phil, oil obviously a big story, jet fuel speaking, we've got airlines down, but we saw similar issues, back when the saudi oil complex was attacked in september, and then the whole thing just petered out. >> it really did. if you go back to the first persian gulf war back in 1990 the prices of oil doubled in a couple of months, and then when it started to fall prices came back down and now we're living in a new world where we look at the event and react to it and we price more with us but then we look at the big picture and we realize the u.s. is producing about 12 million- barrels of oil a day, there's a little bit of a cushion in the marketplace, so there's no need to panic, as long as the situations calm down quickly. we remember with saudi arabia they want production back a lot quicker than anybody thought and everybody was waiting for the next shoe to drop, and it really

hasn't dropped in a dramatic way and that's where we're at today, right? the oil prices went up, we took out this iranian commander, now, what's next, and that's why the oil market right now is tentative but if nothing happens we'll see oil prices come right back down. >> liz: paul we want to remind our viewers the president came out about 13 minutes ago and said we did this to stop a war not to start a war. what could argue that america has shown some pretty significant restraint over the past couple of months the iranians shot down a drone, they had under water attack of, you know, one of the ships in the straight of hormuz, there have been all kinds of issues and then this attack on the u.s. embassy you had a u.s. contractor who was killed. let's talk about what you do, putting aside the human toll, which is of course significant. let me do as a stock purchaser, on funds like this. earlier today the nasdac was down more than 100 points and its come back. was that a window?

>> well, we're long term investors at b riley wealth management and long term investors have to make the distinction between foreign policy event that has no impact on the u.s. economy and one that does, and i don't think that this does, as i was coming here to the studio today, i talked to defense industry analyst, and he's been on the phone with the pentagon and the state department all morning and he says that there seems to be a consensus that iran could do two things. one, it could use cyberattacks or hezbollah and attack things in syria, lebanon, israel, and those wouldn't be major, or they could sing a ship and block the separates straight of hormuz but

the military has been practicing and anticipating this for decade s and they believe within three or four weeks they can deal with any blockage of the straight of hormuz and they can inflict a lot of damage on iranian military infrastructure, but the good newses even if it lasts a couple of months, we have a glut of oil in the world that's what's keeping down oil prices and if you look at national reserves we have four to six months of oil reserves so that means this is not going to have one bit of an effect on the u.s. economy or the world economy in the long term. >> liz: john on the floor of the new york stock exchange with market nine minutes left of trade what do you think happens here, do we go lower, stay where we were, come back up off the fluorine more. liz when i was researching this it was mind boggling, when i looked at the prior gulf wars under bush senior, 1990-1991 at

the same time that happened we were going through our own scandal and banks were failing and yet, we figured it out, and early 90s through 2000, one of the best expansions in world history for both the stock market and the economy and we go to the next big encounter where we have simultaneous wars in afghanistan and iraq, but not only that, we also went through a financial collapse, a dot com bubble and it's amazing the resiliency of america, we figure it out. 2013 is the largest breakout in world history of any stock market and we're continuing to expand even as we speak. >> liz: paul, john, phil, thank you, gentlemen. we are coming right back, and again, the dow well off the lows here, we are down 199 points, earlier we were down 368. so what are you working on? >>i'm searching for info on options trading, and look, it feels like i'm just wasting time. wasted time is wasted opportunity.

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>> liz: folks we are four minutes before the closing bell rings on this friday. we do need to tell you that because of the international incident that has happened, it would be very smart to stay tuned to foxbusiness.com all weekend long for any breaking news, and of course fox business all day and all night, but we're watching right now, that the losses that we saw earlier, are actually getting squeezed out. what had been about a 370 point loss is now a 213 point loss for the dow, and we do see that the blue chips barely will gain for the week, s&p slightly down, the nasdac up about a quarter of a percent so that looks like a win for the week as long as losses don't go beyond 85 points, and right now the nasdac looks to be up about 21 points for the week, let's get back to christina partsinevelos, she's on the floor for the weeks winners and losers. kristina: let's focus on some of the good stuff for today those dow leaders for the week and i'll highlight apple the fact

that it went past a $300 threshold, you're seeing it now a little bit lower today given all of the stocks across-the-board but $298 rbc capital markets put out a note earlier this morning saying apple's iphone lineup is doing really well with consumers there's a lot of interest so they see that is the strength heading into this quarter as well as tariffs are in the rear view. they have increased their price target to $330 they aren't the only one there's some at $400 across-the-board those are the laggards but i want to talk about the s&p leaders for just a second. lam weston, they make frozen french fries, and they ended up at $94 and that has to do with their earnings that came out and then last but not least, just the nasdac let's talk about those nasdac leaders the common thread there, china. all three of those companies you're seeing on your screen, chinese, caltech or telecom internet companies and those are the leaders followed by some of

the losers but let's focus on the highs of the day, i should say, as opposed to the negative. >> liz: christina have a good weekend thank you. >> you too. >> liz: let's turn to a $13.8 billion man, yeah, the head of products, so what stocks do you, i can't say in this environment, the environment keeps changing. >> that's right so what's interesting here is we are in a late cycle economic environment, we have some data this morning, ism manufacturing with expectations. >> liz: big time let's not go over that and just gloss over it fifth straight month of contraction. >> that's right. >> liz: 11 year lows. >> 127-month low for manufacturing getting glossed over today obviously because of the big news which happened overseas which we should not ignore, but the back drop here is one that is slowing, but that doesn't mean that investors should plow in the markets, or go to cash or get fearful because opportunities can still exist. last year, the big winner was tech. we actually continue to think outside of maybe a hiccup here we see in january, the tech actually continued to run, names

like microsoft, that just have resiliency in up and down markets, we continue to see there's opportunities there. >> liz: i do have to ask, you say the must-va stocks are microsoft and msci, what about those two where is the common thread? >> here is what's interesting so msci, a name not talked about as much they are a global index provider but more than providing indexes and that means as we noted a move from active management to passive management , meaning people selecting securities versus just outsourcing effectively to passive indexing, you have to license that index from someone and msci is one of the largest, the emerging markets and as indexing grows, msci revenues and earnings grow so to the second derivative play on a broader theme we're seeing in the markets and in addition to indexing, msci and risk management tools and esg data two other growing areas so it's another stock that did quite well last year and we continue to think that the momentum is behind it heading into 2020 and

beyond. >> liz: good direction for all our investor viewers, markets do finish today in the red, but the dow bouncing between small gains and losses for the week. that will do it for the "claman countdown" but we need you to stay tuned to after the bell there's more news breaking. melissa: fears of retaliation slamming wall street all three major averages ending the day in the red on escalating tensions in the middle east after a u.s. air strike killed a top iranian commander the dow ending down 239 points there, on the session we were down as much as 368 earlier in the day, know the too bad. i'm melissa francis happy friday >> i'm jackie deangelis in for connell mcshane this is after the bell. the s&p 500 and the nasdac also ending in negative territory today, the major averages down more than 1% at today's lows, but president trump is currently making his way to an event with supporters in miami after addressing the developing situation with iran we're going to bring youny