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tv   Maria Bartiromos Wall Street  FOX Business  January 10, 2020 9:00pm-9:30pm EST

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been disclosed, but i will tell you, the media they are very guilty in this one. they never bothered to get their facts. and they went after this kid in a really heinous way. and i hope you got a heck of a lot of money to get a lot more. marie's next. space. maria: happy weekend everybody welcome to the program that analyzes the week that wasn't help position you for the week ahead. i am maria and thanks for joining us. coming up in just a few moments a pair of explosives this weekend. first bank of america's 2020 productions. chief investment officer chris is giving us his outlook and then later my one-on-one with auto giant carlos on the heel of his amazing escape to lebanon from japan. he was in house arrest he's going to tells all about it and what his plans are next. but first the december jobs report friday capped off a decade of gains in the labor
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market. the u.s. economy added 145,000 new jobs a month of december. that's lower than the expected 164,000 that economists were looking for. the n employment rate looks at a 50 year low of 3.5%. joining me right now to break that down and tells what the head is jason morgan chief economist anthony chang. maria: we are expecting a slow down a slower pace is what we're looking for. but this is worse than even the economists were thinking. but it's even lower than the confesses consensus but every time you have thanksgiving coming in late in the calendar, seasonal practice subtracts about a hundred thousand or so from the prior month reading. and he saw the at 256 with the room vision subtraction about a hundred thousand the numbers pretty close. but that doesn't happen to all the components. retail for example thanks giving comes late, juergen hire more workers. the last time things giving came in late you had an acceleration in retail and
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about 50000. this time again the same thing. be seven huge jobs in retail. you also had strength in construction, that was also a good number. other job creation was in healthcare. but manufacturing down. manufacturing was down but again you see that in the national pmi's. there is no secret that the manufacturing today is essentially in contraction. the good news is, if you look at this month's numbers, manufacturing made up only 8.4% of total payroll. so it's a small number, but yes it is in a slowdown mode. the construction number fairly strong. we had good weather. so more hiring in the construction relative to the seasonal practice. maria: was stressing me recently is income inequality is the weight narrowing. look at the wage estimate was up one tenth of a% then it was up 2.9 year-over-year. generally speaking in the last year, you are seeing the
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bottom learners, their wages going up even more than the top earners. that's why income inequality is actually narrowing. >> that's absolutely true in that's when you see a real tightness of the labor market. the overall labor market is tight, but i still think there is more flexibility. and you see that in the labor force increasing by 200, more than 200,000 this month. in fact the participant rate is unchanged. if you look at the legal participation rate relative to her was when we had the beginning of the last recession at 66.4 or even when it ended at 66.1, we are very low levels. if you push the deal to the bottom engine of that range we can draw in another 700 million people and we will be making more progress. all this people not in the labor force they are now making money. maria: so it doesn't bother you in fact that you see an economy that is slowing down? >> no there is no question we went from 2.9% two years ago
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to 2.3 and i estimate for 219 and i think this year we might get 1.9 or 2%. but i just finished some research that finds when you have these long running economic expansion and i we broke it down to the slow and the ones that didn't last long and the ones that lasted above average. that's exactly what you see. the economy slows down. it is not a problem. it is just a natural turn as you mature, you just don't go as fast. still another healthy year. maria: that that's a lot of positives this next week the upcoming week we are probably going to see the china phase i deal signed. we've got the signing ceremony happening between that china and the u.s. on the 15th. you've got usmc a, very close. it's close to passage in the senate. it's probably going to pass next week as well. what does that mean in terms of contributions to the economy and markets as well? you argued in this trade uncertainty out-of-the-way army?
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>> this is very positive because we know more trading activity takes place with the usmc a that it does with china. right now we need some positive catalysts for the market. because we have price-to-earnings ratio looking at 2020 earnings that are approaching 18 and a half. we know the averages about 15. so we know that last year, almost 96% of the increase in stock prices were because of multiples. so we need a positive catalysts. maria: let's look at earnings. let's not forget we are looking fourth korth earnings were to look at the banks further fourth quarter. and then we are off to the races in terms of corporate s&p 500 reporting their earnings. what kind of earnings. are you expecting for the fourth quarter? or is that an issue is were looking ahead to 2020? >> i think the fourth quarters and throw a quarter i think the market is moving beyond that. the question is what happens in 2020. if we get these positive catalysts coming through, then you are going to see earnings picking up a little bit more. how much more?
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i think we will see earnings in 2020 somewhere in the neighborhood of five to 7%. which would be really good relative to what people are seen in 2019. maria: what your take you in a waste box here? >> i want to buy stocks here because earnings are going to be a catalyst. year over year earnings will be easier now and 2020. and i think these positive catalysts are here. maria: thanks so much looking for the 2020 outlook up next don't miss it. ♪ ♪ i am totally blind.
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heisey is here this weekend with the 2020 outlook. chris's great seo. what an incredible week again. at what's going on? >> good news the incredible week the first five days is something that a lot of people have watched over history. and when you get a good five days, generally you get a good year. i would say this. heading into a new year, there is liquidity out there. he gets put to work. if you are an institution review reset before the end of the year what you are going to do for the following year. it tends to be to raise equities to rebalance portfolios, there is a little bit of that but most importantly you have de-escalation obviously on the trade front. you have an easy fed who is willing to put that in more palatable communication. outwardly over 18 months. you've got the situation of the middle east which is very concerning that has come down for now. markets can appear straight through that. and most important in the
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surprise for next year isn't necessarily growth disappointing it's just the opposite. its growth showing it can be off the grounds and get back to trend. >> seven you said to me you thought we were in a melt up for what is that mean? >> the melt up would be the normal pullback. year somewhere two to 35% pullback. they get 1% pullback. a melt up would be on top of the big gains from last year another ten to 15%. how does that help them? that helps with a little bit of multiple expansion and last year's rally had most of it because of that. there is very little earnings growth. next to you get earnings growth, seven or 8%, a multiple expansion still easy fed, the big thing to worry about is something you're used to wearing about his elections. maria: that's true and if the markets think that policies are going to change in terms of tax policies, i suspect that markets will go down.
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>> with most changes in policy regardless of who is in the white house, or what makeup of congress there is or even at the state level, any change is something people move back from. and businesses may pull a little cap ex back here and there appeared to they are gonna watch it closely. taxation and regulation are things people can be watching closely to see how that may or may not change. and last but not least we talk about the business cycle. we have written a lot about this. this business cycle dynamic we are seeing unfolding for the last few years, i would say since 2012. it is a very, very different business cycle that multiple trend on. maria: because most people say we are in the 11th year of this economic expansion. at some point this is late stage it is the late stage of the cycle. you disagree? >> absolutely, they point to the duration. we haven't had an economic recession and they immediately discount the little mini
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recessions. we have had little mini recessions not necessarily negative economic growth but we have had earnings recessions thing flatlined profits, and what we are seeing is a little bit of help from global trade get us up off the ground. but the fourth mini wave right now is all about each time we fell backwards. this particular time around in the business cycle it was about to be a big policy era. it was in a policy error but it was about to be. and is driven by the fed and then it was kittle started again because the fed relax. we thought in 2012 with to 13 we saw in 1516, an hour into that fourth mini it's white lace cycle but it's early. maria: said going into the rest of the year what i want to be position what should i be holding? what should i buy which i sell? >> the way we see our clients positions right now, what they have been doing recently to your other point, is they have
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been adding. they've actually been adding to equity. at the very programmatically thinking about this rationally, and they saw that much of the gains last year came from a big movement towards the end of the year. so now you are going into 2020 and if you are under allocated that's where you start having her and no reviews and use the money put to work. so what you want to do right now? you want to look for areas of weakness. so coming out of fourth quarter if guidance is generally guarded likely suspects, the markets should exhale paired y with a exhale? because there is no news coming out. the only news coming out would be something that concerns the market. that's when you need to be ready if you have high caching into be ready on down days in february and march. we expect first-quarter to come back and push the market back up again, and over the summer months that's where election concerns will come in with a debate start. that's when that second level of weakness should be. but we would be rebalancing
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portfolios and what's most important is the long-term. our work suggests with the millennial's and the jens e, that collective people pool which are getting older, no full well that retirement is not may not be there for them so potentially a big equity culture building now. like us on the 1990s. maria: that's exactly right forbes magazine did a piece on a transfer of wealth from baby boomers to their millennial kids in other generations kids. $68trillion is going to be transferred, that money has to go to work request before you go as their sector you like more than others? >> i think a cross between half of tech, the areas of software that are going to be responsible for the eventual buildout of 5g. and then if you think about the large consumer branded companies which includes the big financials. and then outside of that i think the pickup, the greatest
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pickup is in the industrial sector. maria: thank you it's chris it's great to have you. don't go anywhere my one-on-one with carlos go is coming up next from beirut. i'm your 70lb st. bernard puppy, and my lack of impulse control, is about to become your problem. ahh no, come on. i saw you eating poop earlier. hey! my focus is on the road, and that's saving me cash with drivewise. who's the dummy now? whoof! whoof! so get allstate where good drivers save 40% for avoiding mayhem, like me. sorry! he's a baby!
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maria: a welcome back down 29000 was not the only draw on wall street this week as the to listen to former nissan ceo carlos cohen believed to be under house arrest in japan for alleged corporate crimes and suddenly appeared in lebanon. in an exclusive interview i was able to speak with carl in his wife the first time they have spoken on the entire ordeal published publicly. >> not knowing exactly what
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was going on. and then i learned from the prosecutor that the reason for which i was arrested was because i supposedly. [inaudible] underreported compensation and. [inaudible] was ever paid. and this is why i was put in jail. what is interesting is that today i prime minister of japan, nissan has declared that this issue is within the prime minister of japan is saying months after this ordeal has started. so i was put in jail for reasons i did not understand. i did not understand at that moment. and then they kept me for 40 days, interrogating me without the presence of any lawyer. and then when they finished interrogations, they had another charge.
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[inaudible] and the story continues like this for 130 days. i was 130 days in prison. interrogated by the persecutor, and having access to my lawyers only after the interrogation. then i was bailed out and under the bailouts i was under very strict conditions. i could not completely understand. i could not go to my wife she could not visit me. they said that this is due to the fact that she is going to get evidence. even though they allowed my children, my sister, others to visit me. but they focused on carol because of this relationship we had together. so all of these wind up at the moments i absolutely lost any hope to have a fair trial in japan. and i did not have a date for
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the initiation of this trial. so i decided to leave japan because if i wanted to really look for justice i had to look for justice in another country because japan it was forbidden. maria: carless it is such an amazing story in the world is watching. they are talking about how you engineered from the state of japan. i know you don't want to go into it and don't want to put anybody at risk to help you get out. but can you tell us that all that you are hidden in a musical box? [laughter] i was not in box. i have been observing all of the stories about me leaving japan. it is funny because obviously i know what happens. some people are not very far from the truth, but nobody got it right at the moment. and the reason for which i don't talk about is i don't want to put anyone in any danger particularly the people helping me.
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they showed a lot of courage. but what is extremely important, maria, as you have people in japan saying this never should have been dealt with outside the room of nissan. at the same time you have the prosecutors in japan saying we want to try, and they wanted to say also there was no, you know illusion between them and nissan. [inaudible] that problem showing the collusion but they said there was no leaking to the press. i witnessed all of this. so we had kind of a interesting situation. maria: carol you are with me in the studio talking to me about carlos when he was in
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prison. how does it feel to back with carlos? >> i will tell you it is the best gift of my life when i saw him. i could not believe it's that he was here. it was early in the morning and i was surprised. it was a miracle. maria: how are you feeling yourself, carol, now that there is a warrant for your arrest. you feel safe where you are the two of you? >> no, i think we are safe because there is no extradition. and with him being out of japan anything is better than carlos being in japan. [inaudible] maria: carless when carol joined us she told us a little bit about the conditions you face. i was struck by some of the things they did to you. i assume because they wanted to do to confess. for example you touched on this yesterday, the lights were on all day, you did not
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know if it was night or day. can you walk us through some of the things you face while in japan? >> yes, obviously i'm not going to make a very good description, but most of the things were like we had the lights on all the time in the cell. you could shower only twice a week. you have only 30 minutes exposure during the lights and that was only during the working days and not on the weekend because no one was on staff. but the most important thing is the interrogation can take place at any moment and up to eight hours a day without the presence of your lawyer. but what all of these interrogations are taped and they can be accessed by the lawyers. maria: my thanks to carlos and carol. more wall street right after this. ♪
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maria: welcome back the week ahead will be a huge one for investors. we have the signing ceremony of the phase was of the china deal with the united states on wednesday. that's the 15th. and we are also expecting the usmc a trade deal passing in the senate at some point this upcoming week as well. coming up here right on the program next week and another jampacked showing got the chairman and ceo of jerry dimond of j.p. morgan in an exclusive interview. white house trade advisor peter navarro. my special guest next weekend. i'll see you sunday morning on the fox news channel for sunday morning futures my big guest former presidential chief strategist steve bannon and has my minority leader
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kevin mccarthy. catch the show live 10:00 a.m. eastern on fox news. and i hope you'll join me every weekday right here on foxbusiness start smart tune in weekdays 69 on weekdays right here on foxbusiness news. have a great weekend everybody thanks for joining me. we'll see you next time. ♪ ♪. gerry: hello and welcome to the wall street journal at large. for the new year new decade, started at the same frantic pace of news is the norm since donald trump went into office three years ago. on tuesday this week i run retaliated for last week's u.s. drone attack that killed the countries top general qassem soleimani for filing missiles at troops. no americans were killed, in response president trump went on national television speaking in terms saying look

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