plus right here on foxbusiness start smart every weekday 69 eastern. mornings with maria. right here on foxbusiness. i hope you'll join me to it set the tone for the day every weekday. that will do it for weekend, thanks much for joining me. have a great weekend. ♪ ♪. gerry: hello and welcome to the world wall street journal at large. can 2020 only be less than three weeks old? this week we saw another torrent of news. a trade deal with china, articles of impeachment against president trump sent to senate. vladimir putin and russia to have his hold on power. but it's a situation in the middle east that has the potential for the greatest change in a very turbulent world. and we are very still much focus on iran. this week there were more dramatic the velvets islamic

republic. demonstrators who had been marched against the u.s. calling for death to america have changed course. now they are protesting against their own government. after tyrone admitted late last week that its own missile shot down the ukrainian passenger plane by mistake. causing the death of 176 people including dozens of armenians. the shifting sentiment could impose validation for president trump who is facing a lot of criticism on the justification on the attack on qassem soleimani. mr. trump went on twitter to pray for demonstrators and told iran not to kill their protesters because the world is watching, more importantly the usa is watching. information inside iran is hard to get, the riot police have been out in force to control the marches. many of them are demanding more from the president resigned over the plane crash. adding to the leadership

trouble as european nations are still party to the 2015 are run nuclear deal, which of course the united states has suspended its involvement. if tyrone doesn't comply with its promise to limit its nuclear ambitions. so every waged the turning point iran with the hardliners losing the grip on power? what happens next? what did these developments mange the u.s.? to give his insight is the director of uranian studies program at stanford is also the author of several books one considered the most authority them on the lash all of our run. he joins me from stanford. professor welcome. let me start by asking about the current unrest there. how serious are these demonstrations what is the

threat? >> i think the demonstrations in particular the fact that they have been followed by many other demonstrations virtually all of them except for the funeral for soleimani against the regime, are having a composite effect. and because they have very serious economic crisis and because they come with an increasing isolation, both regionally and around the world, they have i think created an almost perfect storm for the regime. and that regime is absolute ability to face up to the reality of this and doubling down on the failed policies of the past. and actual suppression of any voice. i think it's going to increase the chances that this will become the most serious crisis they have ever faced. gerry: as you have implied there have been several periods in the last decade or so where iranians have taken to the streets, very unhappy

in 2009 and a couple of years ago too. and just before the killing of soleimani we saw a lot of demonstrations on the sanctions, the economy is bit has been hit hard. why do you think this is more serious than even some of those demonstrations which in the end the regime is able to put down? >> because as i indicated in the interval between these demonstrations become shorter as they have. in november, the regime had to literally kill upward of a thousand loiterers and they said 1500. the ironic regime with that the internal shame is not once indicated how many people they have killed. there are reports of 7000 people and more are still in prison severing torture. and the soleimani funeral and the outpouring of sympathy gave the regime a moments of potential rest. gave it a moment it could try

to correct its path. that people have not gone home yet. they use the outpouring of emotion to their benefit. they began to arrest some of the opposition. they began to threaten anyone who would criticize them. and then the absolute mismanagement, and gross lying about the downing of the ukrainian plane, completely turned against them and they began to lose any possibility of the moment and the country is again ready for more demonstrations. they still have the possibility of suppressing this. they haven't lost their ability to kill or imprison people, but as the economy falters, as the funds they have available to pay these

hoodlums to go after the iranian people dwindled, i think the crisis will become more serious. i don't see any end to these demonstrations. gerry: is there any kind of opposition movement? is there a figure or a leader? is there a faction or a party that might possibly unite around that would be able to bring up about the end of the islamic regime? >> the obvious most important part of the opposition inside iran is there is opposition forces outside of iran and they are part of the larger. [inaudible] it's almost 10% of the population living there. in the future of our iran has to be determined with a combination of where the center of the opposition is which is iran. and that center of opposition has been decimated by the regime. gerry: but in the history to bring authoritarian regimes down you need an organization, figure, like when the soviet

union or untracked union collapse you had some of the opposition movements and these other authoritarian places. is there enough -- is there a well resourced and enough of an identifiable figure that could be leading this effort to actually topple the regime? >> i don't think there is one figure that has emerged yet, that has achieved the kind of consensus. because i say that consensus has to be both from within iran and outside of iran. they have figures who have to have different levels of support. there are groups that are organizing and offering themselves as the vehicle for this transition, but i don't see yet any group that has for example as you suggest, the polish example were solidarity emerged. my sense is that what will happen, what is most likely is there are enough people within

the eye iranian government, not the killers, not the irg see commanders that have become de facto mafia bosses of the eye iranian economy, but there are people within iran -- the eye iranian regime that know the game is up. and they want to avoid civil war. they want to avoid a bloodied revolution. gerry: i'm sorry we've got to take a very quick break when we come back i want to discuss more on the recent events and iran, the prospects for the regime there, and the future of the middle east. stay with us will be back in just a moment. at fidelity, online u.s. stocks and etfs are commission-free. and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk while our competition continues to talk. ♪ do you recall, not long ago ♪ we would walk on the sidewalk ♪

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movements against the leadership iran? >> i think of some of the declarations of support for the iranian people have been positive. mr. trumps tweets and persian was positive. my sense is the iranian regime 's international serious pressure. there should be, i think an international, led by the nine states because the united states is so important around the world. but in international pressure on the iranian regime that you are not going to be allowed to kill your people the way you did in november. gerry: so would that be more economic sanctions? already the u.s. has reimposed those sanctions after it suspended its involvement in the nuclear deal. i you suggesting there should be even tougher sanctions? >> i think there should be tougher sanctions against the irg see.

i think there should be tougher sanctions against anyone who has been responsible in ordering this, and continues to exercise it. i think ther they should be barred from traveling, their assets outside should be subject to all kinds of laws that exist for taking control of these things. kind of laws that were used against russia and against potent. that kind of pressure, and in my view, the clear indication to the eye iranian people that nobody is going to determine their future, they should determine their future. but the world is watching and is on their side. in serving notice to them. international pressure works. gerry: what affect does the killing of a qassem soleimani have on the country more generally. you said at the beginning we

saw huge demonstrations and condolence and anger at the united states. how genuine is that, and what is the effects of his removal on iran's ability both in the region and to deal with the unrest at this time? >> the demonstrations were partially genuine, in a sense that there were people, nobody knows how many were in the street that fit into this category, there are people who were genuinely angry. that much of it was orchestrated by the regime. the regime not only shut the country down for three days and puts the entirely controlled media getting the service of getting people out. in the service of creating this kind of anger. but even before that, at has to be mentioned that the regime had worked for years to create qassem soleimani a different figure than the irg can see commander. they create an image of him

between napoleon, poet, a mystic, somebody who was rumored to be financially corrupt like every other irc commander. if the regime had tried all of what it did in favor of any other general they could not have gotten this number. but much of it was orchestrated, masked demonstration. regimes like iran thrive on creating mass demonstrations to threaten the people who opposed them and to tell the international community that they still have legitimacy at home. gerry: one more quick break and then i want to come back and we will get your view, for their views on what is happening and iran and what might be going on in the wider region. region. stay with us. the better question would be where do i not listen to it.

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gerry: i am with staten university director of iran studies abbas milani. professor in the last decade or so iran is really spread their influence in iraq. lewis to dom hussein at spin very serious it's propped up the regime it comments very influential in lebanon through its proxy has a blog, yemen and his struggle is saudi arabia, as you mentioned at the beginning, i was starting to see some pushback to that iranian influence? how do you see that going now in the next year so? is are going to be further resistance to their influence? >> every indication i have seen is there would be more. iraq for example where iran has had most of the culturally embedded influence because of the number of shiites, the

number of leaders who lived part of the years and iran. there is pushback there. [inaudible] if you read between the lines, every statement he has made is essentially here that iran needs to set up a rocky politics. the report he had one time even asked soleimani to leave iraq because he thought he was influencing too much. in lebanon it was the same way. has below was on the liberal defensive. so i think regional lead they were very much on the defensive. and their ability not to spend as much money on these proxies, might soon be very influential in how much those proxies are going to be able to heed the commands of the

eye iranian regime. gerry: five years ago president obama and the europeans, russians, chinese signed the plan of action by which iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions. president trump got out of that in reimposed sanctions. what affects his president trump's actions and the altering so they are no longer going to be restricted to the program. what effect is that having on iran and its political influence in the region? >> i think this sanctions clearly exacerbated an already failing eye iranian economy. the economy was in serious trouble when president trump pulled it out and these sanctions have clearly made life much much more difficult for iran. the sale the most recent figures less than

300,000 barrels. they were selling 2 million barrels. so the economy is hurting them. i think the economy is the regime's most serious problem. and in that sense, i would not be surprised if europeans don't join in and the sanctions because they have started the mechanism for fighting against iran and iran has no intention of changing its disavowal of that nuclear deal. so with more sanctions, i think the eye economy would hurt even more. gerry: professor, you wrote a very authoritative book or biography on the shaw of iran. who was toppled of course in 1979, and you'd describe in very vivid terms in that book, the final months and years before the shaws removal from office. again, you are not in iran now, it's hard to get exact

information on what's going on. but are there any indications, is there a real expert on that. what you saw during that period, are there any similarities with what's going on now? are we seeing now after maybe 40 plus years, is that regime facing the same unrest? could it and the same way as it did for the shot? >> i think it is very similar and how it has had a series of crises. but i think there's one big difference. the shaw did not want to release blood he just it might have been his only way to stay in power. he then decided to do it. and then partly he decided not to do it because the u.s. and the british government also told him there might be a nonviolent solution to this.

this regime is not one who will give up when it realizes people don't want to. i think there's overwhelming evidence, a great majority of the iranian people don't want this whole inside of iran. less than 10% are happy for this regime. gerry: 's professor that was fascinating. think every mentioned deed for joining us this week. just ahead the president celebration of this week's trade deal china could be a little premature. i will explain why. ♪ when you look at the world, what do you see? ♪

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gerry: odd one said this week at just about the same time that nancy pelosi was preparing to deliver to the senate's articles of impeachment against president trump, the president himself was announcing to great grandparents signature achievement of this administration. phase one of a trade deal china. the impeachment saga looks like it will roll on for a while yet, but the outcome to that drama seems pretty typical. the china issue will also unfold but the consequences are much less certain. the agreement marks an important truce in the two-year trade war between the two countries and will see a reduction in tariffs that will be good news for u.s. consumers, farmers, some businesses. but there are two main questions, will the deal actually hold? is there more to come? will there ever in fact be a

phase ii? by china increasing their imports for over $200 billion of the next two years. that's a huge thing if it happens. they say there are strong and forced mechanisms to make sure it does. it's still a very big pledge. pulling up that radical change in trade is a mighty tall order. but what about further progress? the u.s. has left much of its tariffs on chinese imports in place depending upon the next phase. but for these tariffs to go as well, china must make very radical changes in the way their economy works. scaling back some of its great technological ambitions. now these are undoubtedly commendable goals of the u.s. is probably right to be striving for them. but is china really likely to transform itself in that way? well it seems unlikely. for now at least the china deal we have seems more like a one and done. so we are also done for this week. be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook, an

instagram. join me next week when i'll be at in davos switzerland talking to him some of the most influential people in the world economy. that's right here on the wall street journal and large. you so much for joining us. ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to barron's roundtable were the sharpest minds on wall street need to get behind the headlines to prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack cotter and we'll begin with what we think are the three most important

things investors should be thinking about right now. the dow powering towards 30,000, how high can it go and what can stop it? corporate earnings season is underway what is next for netflix, american express and more. and blackbox steps away from kolo baron publishes its list of top societal funds. on barron's roundtable tonight been levinson jack how. benno start with you wednesday the market closes above 139,000 for the first time. and now we are almost a third of the way to 30,000, that sounds to me like a melt up? >> it's actually is a melt up which is a little scary. at this rate it's good again more than 80% this year. this is a melt up. and part of it is this market just doesn't go down. we have had 61 days without the 20 day moving average which is a metric of the short-term trend. this is incredibly just steady

rising markets. jack: in that normally does not happen. >> that does not happen at all this is orderly panic buying at most. and the differences people aren't buying garbage. they might be buying elevated prices for quality merchandise but they rejected some of the low-quality ipos. they are not out there buying trash they are buying companies that are making a lot of money, they're giving the returns and dividends and buying back the shares. jack: and tina there is no alternative? there is there buying high-yield bonds and other things. you don't want to be the treasury right now you want to be someplace that has a deal and it has a potential go up and make you money. kennedy: one thing that, i was very rarely do we see this 11% move in a corner, and three months, and dealing time it's ever happened before is almost ever is when there's a big dip in the market beforehand. the market goes down% vending is up 10% in this case we

didn't have that and barry and usually we don't have a earnings acceleration. subject, when can we actually get some earnings acceleration? >> 2019 was not a good earnings year i think you'll get it in 2020. wall street is saying 10% earnings growth this year. they always start out to pie. >> they always start out ten. >> their skin to be 5% if you get another year of zero, we've got a problem. because investors, are really expecting that 5% or better. gerry: night next on the docket working on and up 2019 and the earnings over the next few weeks is gonna be out fourth quarter. target did not look pretty last week. >> this is to the point because target is what we say not every retailers getting killed by amazon, look at target words gaining shares and others are hurting. people are looking for a reason right now, maybe they had too much and toys after the toys "r" us bankruptcy.

people are not buying electronics. >> or their shopping at best buy. >> there is not a must-have toy this season. we don't have baby yoder toys yet, so more people go to buy for the holidays? >> i like blaming it on baby yoda. so i think we really need to see another quarter to get some confirmation on what's going on. target is not been doing so also maybe they can make some adjustments. >> what's coming up? >> were looking at netflix at the company that had some disappointing subscription ads in the u.s., we need to learn whether all of these new streamers are hurting netflix. we are going to hear from airlines in the week ahead led good numbers from delta so i expect to see good numbers of others united is coming up as well as american. >> they are certainly packing them in and i've been doing some travel in that seat next to me is never empty anymore. >> they have not put them on our laps yet,. >> don't give them any ideas. >> another earnings report this week was black box their

time at the letter from larry. he writes an annual letter to ceos and this year we focused on climate change. >> climate changes also sing us and be divesting itself from coal. some people are saying too little too late. but we see were coal prices are with related companies. and your point is because frankly they're doing terribly because debbie's using coal natural gas is cheaper. >> exactly and i want to highlight it sustainable funds. larry is not off the market here because if you look at funds, whether they talk call themselves bfg or not, they tend to outperform their peers. at least they have in the past few years. and larry would not be taught by divesting from coal or other products in less there is a market for. when he is talking to investors and potential clients, this is what they're asking for. >> this idea i'm hearing you do good and they reminds me sunday slowly put your money in the offering it'll be returned to you tenfold.

it's not a hedge fund i would not bank on the return being superior over the long run. >> what you think and you do better in your portfolio by investing in companies that worry about the environment, social issues, government? >> there are things that are bad for the environment are that are bad to change good for your business. so if you are an oil company and your fracking in their letting natural gas escape into the environment, you are not your environment, we are losing up profit you're getting from that natural gas. you can make more money. it could be a win-win when you put the two together. >> and also if you look long term there is a ton of potential here too. when climate changes at the huge liability for a lot of companies. >> all i know is larry fink has appeased the industrial complex are about five minutes on this. they're gonna come back looking for more. >> he gets it from both sides. if he doesn't do enough to get him, and then people believe in milton freeman, they say don't worry about vallely is

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and when you open a new brokerage account, your cash is automatically invested at a great rate. that's why fidelity leads the industry in value while our competition continues to talk. ♪ talk, talk intel corporation is a leading maker and silicon chips plano priestly port in our lives. year ago this month bob swan took over the seventh ceo of intel's 50 year history. i recently caught up with swanton talks with the challenges he inherited and the opportunities ahead. jack: obviously everyone in your businesses is reacting to secular change in the economy. intel was a dominant force in pcs. and now they're using less macbook is slowing and they've got a phone and they need data centers in the cloud.

so can you explain where the growth areas the futures will come for intel? >> at first i would say the incredible appetite for data. and then underneath that incredible appetite for data is to compute to that is required to make that data more and more relevant and a world that is moving from the pc to the data center to the network and to the edge trying to process all of the information that comes from billions and billions of connected devices. that's a trend we've seen for a while. so what you're seeing happened in the industry, there is so much innovation going on and silicon that as we've seen and a long time, we feel relatively well positioned to capitalize on those emerging trends. jack: anything it's going to be a while before cars are driving themselves everywhere, but you are deep into that game. can you explain what you are doing now for current

technology with cars and when you see cars driving themselves? when can we let go of the wheels? >> the pace that we are deploying technology to bring assisted drive in an ultimately autonomous drive to life has been very impressive and a very exciting prospects for our company going forward. jack: obviously it's more than just the chips. somata things have to fall in place for the highways to be full of cars without drivers, or just someone sitting there. what would you guess, is it a decade off 20 years off, so literally the carpels up to her house and picked up? >> it's interesting if you asked me this three years ago i would have said maybe 2025, today i would say maybe closer to 25 to 30, 2030. but i continue to be pleasantly surprised with the amount of technology innovation and what our teams have been able to deploy in cars over the last couple of

months even. so who knows? but it will be here fast, we believe we have a leading position in bringing these technologies into cars. jack: artificial intelligent is needed to make a car drive. but artificial intelligent will be part of many things the hotel suite in that aspect? >> the places that are most impacted are hard-to-reach places who don't have the things we have increasingly been accustomed to. we've been trying to create images and build maps and places they don't exist such that when there is responders to save lives, we are helping to make that technology simpler and faster. jack: so for example you have taken satellite images of uganda and mapped to swaps of the country in a very short time. >> to swat huge swaths of lands in a matter of hours so rescue can be deployed. because hours and minutes

matter in saving lives and these type of rescue missions. we have been deploying these technologies of broad swaths of land in hours. jack: so switching a little but your specific role at intel. all of your predecessors have been engineers but you have come from the cfo job. why isn't an engineer leading intel? i've were in other things where intel needs great capitalization. can you see what tell me your key priorities are? gerry: >> intel, hundred and 10000 people 70000 engineers, we have the best engineers on the planets, i am convinced of it. so i am not in my role going to outsmart the 70000 engineers that intel has. my challenge is to make sure we are asking the right questions as we invented the right technologies, deploy those to bring those technologies to life.

jack: one more question for you and he grove wrote a book only the paranoid survive. so what keeps you up at night? when you're paranoid when you worry about? >> the opportunities we have in front of us and the risk of not capitalize on that. we have shared a lot of the technologies we have underway in a world where there is more innovation and semi conductors that there has been in a long time. to the challenge in the up at night is making sure we don't miss an opportunity. miss an opportunity to create unique experiences for consumers and/or businesses and deploying more and more technology in the cloud, and the network, edit these billions of connected devices at the edge. jack: thank you so much bob it's a very exciting time in your industry. coming up, our ideas on what you can do right now to improve your portfolio. but first top stock picks from barron's investment roundtable.

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jack: earlier this month bern told our baron roundtable their predictions for 2020. the members also give us their best investment ideas for the year ahead. bill joins us and at the roundtable and he is back with us now. bill, thanks for coming in. first of all just explained your overarching investment philosophy. you focus on free cast flow? >> there is not a business in the world is not driven by its ability to support and grow cash flow. so the difference between operating cash flow and frequent cash flow are the claims, capital market claims,

capital spending claims and taxes. free cash flow allows you to delete a five things. you can return capital to the investors via cash dividends, share buybacks or debt paydown's. in addition though you can reinvest or acquire these are the only choices available to you. so the key for any businesses what's the cost of the capital and what can i earn on that. so it's card our oic return on investment capital minus the whack rate, that spread, is what will really determine how good this set a manager should have. jack: let me ask you about a question you like disney. barron's has written favorably about disney, chewbacca orders for disney big fan of the show. but disney is a company that is spending a lot of money to get their streaming service off the ground. so that's a lot of aware there re- cash flow is going in the near term. but you're not bothered by that because you think it's being put to good use? >> corrects, i also think of

the short run, for a year i don't know disney's going to be a great stock or not. but over ten years it should be absolutely terrific. disney is converting firm of the twisty company. from a bead to be companies for b2c company and set a business-to-business model it's going to be a business consumer model. and that process, all that licensing they do is can be brought back in. and that should allow them to grow their business a lot faster. i think already they have announced something in the order of 41 or 42 million subscribers to the new service. this could be a triple digit number into three years. but that's the way that grow is the way people think. which allows a cash flow in the capital return should be substantial. jack: we've already gave baby yoda plug earlier not giving them more. there is less known company bashes that how you pronounce that?

bauer's trades at about four times the unlevered cash flow of the business. when you think about how free cash flow working as wi-fi views as you can do with the money this is the perfect case. they have to do one thing, pay down debt. >> i went to ask you about that when i hear about them i think of the four pharmaceutical. had they gotten over those problems? >> we think they have gotten over the problem it certainly has a legacy for a beer very bad place. that said, when you look at what the new management is doing, it's quite substantial. they have already paid down to well over $7 billion of debt, the remaining debt they have transition to a lower rate and have turned it out. there should be a substantial increase in stock in this upcoming year. it would be one of our very, very topics this year. jack: i want to jump into a lightning round because bill was one of a bunch of people

at the roundtable. ben tele somebody pic that catches their eye. bed bath and beyond has a new ceo who's really changing things up there. they just had a bad earnings report they dropped close to 20% after announcing. but she things he will get things turned around and this could be actually just a big gain of the next three years. >> and merrill has good credit because she's on the board. >> this will be one that is of interest you to bill at spotify. they say the company might be a little bit misunderstood. it's down a little bit from when it debuted in 2018. it's really an engagement and subscriber story. people love the story look at the end of 2019 when spotify does this rapport they tweet out all the music you listen to. there's a lot of excitement around this company and james anderson recommends that one. bill your spotify fan?

yes we also like spotify it's a pas it's a platform company to two-sided model, they want to serve both the musicians and the listeners. and the key to success of the stock will be growth in subscriptions which should be outstanding in this upcoming year. jack: thank you very much bill you gotta tell me yours jack. >> horizon, you jack of done business there, smart guys always do business there at promising places. so that's my investment pic. emergency childcare. jack: up next roundtable give their investment ideas for the upcoming week. we are to take a short break as a struggling actor, i need all the breaks that i can get. at liberty butchemel... cut. liberty mu... line? cut. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. cut. liberty m... am i allowed to riff? what if i come out of the water? liberty biberty... cut. we'll dub it. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance

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when you work from home. i'll be in my office. download audible and start every day off right. jack: and jackie have been writing a lot, thinking a lot about the new streaming

business we just talked about disney. there's a new entrant in the field you are skeptical that you been converted. i was a peacock pooh-pooh her in recent weeks. i have been on this network, i have been cracking wise about the punky brewster reboot and what the content might be. i think comcast laid out a convincing case on thursday investor day about how they are going to differentiate the service with price. they're going to be tears here that are free with a lot of content. so i still think at the crowded space, but they talk about the money they are going to make from advertising their streaming service which is pretty unique with that for a company with this kind of content. some warming up to it. there's already bookcase for comcast. jack: you pointed out eddie murphy hosted saturday night live in 30 years, and his numbers were down 38% lower viewership. but when you go to streaming up 66%. >> if you look at all the

venues, they think television isn't what it used to be but it's much bigger when you added all in. we are going to go to you guys great actionable ideas. i'm in a start with ben, old school. >> i'm going with barrett gold. gold prices have gone up. they're probably going to stay up if there is inflation, people are going to want to own gold. if things go wrong they want to overlook own gold. it did really well star to keep going up. jack: where we at 1800? it will keep on climbing then. >> so nearing the top of our screen was why cg enhance. >> 's a bear looked at funds of one of the best of them was why cg enhance. >> will be like about this phone is a focus on investors as a long-term outlook. this isn't companies that are doing quarterly results. the founder is the son of investor brian jokinen who makes it quite interesting at the top of our lives. jack: great idea they take

advantage of short-term investors make bad mistakes. to read more and check out this week's edition of barron's.com and don't forget to follow us on twitter, that's all for us, see you next week on barron's [♪] lou: good evening, everybody. president trump in florida tonight. he and the first lady leaving the d.c. wamp behind to be in mar-a-lago for the weekend. prior to his departure president trump finalized his impeachment dream team to lead the proceedings to subvert andover throw this president. the white house counsel pat cipollone and jay