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tv   Barrons Roundtable  FOX Business  March 8, 2020 9:30am-10:00am EDT

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on fox news channel. right foxbusiness start smart weekdays 210 from six to 9:00 a.m. eastern for mornings with maria, right here in foxbusiness i hope you start your day every week day with us on foxbusiness. that will do it for us tonight, thanks muchon the wallt large, thank you for joining. ♪ ♪ i'm check out or coming up our exclusive interview with new york stock exchange president stacey cunningham on the effective coronavirus on the markets, trading and more. but we begin with what we think are the three most important things investors
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should be thinking about right now. wild swings in the market as coronavirus spreads across the u.s., but is the virus the only factor. falling stock prices have lifted dividend yield, some companies are often more than 5%, we've got the nays, and which companies are more attractive after the selloff. on the barron's roundtable tonight been levinson, jack how, we opened last week with three forces moving the market coronavirus, fed, politics. by midday friday look like coronavirus was the only thing standing, then a new force into the picture. so let's get this out of the way, politics is a sideshow here. what we have is a heavyweight battle between two forces. have a coronavirus which is threatening to make the u.s. economy grind to a halt. and you have the fed which is trying to make sure people can still get access to money. that they are not going to run other cash they need to keep their business going so the market was out riding with biden when the started customer. >> and jack how is being played by sylvester stallone because midday monday he was on the ropes. so in the market is responding first, to the possibility that the fed would cut rates. which it did. then cause the market the selloff because market sells good news. and it looked like it was going to get slaughtered the rest of the week.
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then friday comes along, and the last hour, one hour before the end of the day, they come out and say maybe the feds should be buying securities. and you get a 500-point rally in the dow pretty every single market and major index finished up for the week. jack: who said that? >> in a fed member. jack: when he talks people listen. >> it was a wild week you had to, 4% updates which doesn't happen very often. you had some big down days, and the dow ended up on the week a little over 1%. so when you back wayward 6% a year? it's kind of about where we should be. so 8%. so with earnings growth this year now were not getting any. it's about what you would think the market should have done. it's not so crazy at the year-to-date. so a lot of people been calling for repricing anyway. entering the coronavirus kind of ignited it. jack: smita historic move,
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since 1851 when the modern bond market was established of never seen this before. so the bond yields dropped below 0.8% on the air. >> if you put $3 million in ten year treasuries right now, let's say your retiree at your life savings, you're going to get income of $23000 a year. i went to the labor department's website looked at who makes $23000 year it's dishwashers. it's not a bad job i used to do it and is a darn good one. i made those plates shine part you would think with 3 million bucks, you're still well-to-do 3 million but you could generate more income. it has gotten very expensive to seek safety. >> so carlton you've been looking at the stock market to the income led 20 fighting and dividend land customer. >> absolutely with stocks going off dividend to going up. that can be a value trap. where things aren't just cheap, but they are cheap. jack: 's a really high dividends are red flags that way if that company question work so exactly but there are some places and or barry has a
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story coming out of the bunch of nays of the opt to be underlying financials of the company. have these deals in excess of 5%, the underlying financials of the companies do look stronger, relatively stronger. yet there are some energy nays in here so you're looking at expert on mobile, bolero energy are also look at prudential financial inc. in america. jack: to the other side of followings stock prices as bargains. jackie been a bargain business. so you got to embrace some risk it can't be all safe. if you look at what suman the stock market, soup and bleach. camels and clorox. that's a people excited about right now. jack: and clorox to selling at 28 times earnings? >> if you look at companies like disney and the beginning of the year disney traded and 40% premium relative to earnings. you think the world's most valuable entertainment estimates will be better than cream of mushroom over the long-term. so you don't think that's a future customer. >> now the same price.
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i think that's a good opportunity for investors. i pointed out some nays that at least come from ubs stanley black & decker, and jetblue. i get it, we are not ready for the airlines yet, but if you are adventurous and you want to buy very cheap stock,. >> at least not recommending a cruise line. so i am not going for that yet. they load the home improvement chain and young brands, knock and given a commentary on kfc's new chicken sandwich that has the two glazed donuts for buns, that's yummy brand. as a double digit earnings grower. jack: edson mays in one of that size is double earning. >> don't forget they have the tacos. jack: before we go, bennett went to ask, crazy week, big surge into the close, what you think happens monday, tuesday, wednesday next week? smack another 4%.
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so i don't thing the volatilities over yet. think we're going to see testing finally happen on the coronavirus here in the united states. we are going to see a spike of cases, the headlines are going to scare people. jack: though put the test that will find it how many people actually have coronavirus that's going to be scary. >> that is going to freak people out there gonna sell. i also think we have to watch carefully, the economic data this coming out. things like the jobless claims data to see if the coronavirus is starting to have an impact on small businesses for it are they laying people off course work we have to very careful to pose number start to rise. if they do it's a problem. jack: coming up our exclusive interview with new york stock exchange president stacey cunningham. stay right
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jack: this week barron's launches inaugural lists of the 100 most influential women and finance. one of those honorees is in the thick of the wild action on wall street, stacey cunningham, president of the next stock exchange. as businesses across the country plan coronavirus contingency plan. i asked if traders should stay home? jack: with the floor of the nearest exchange ever shut down for the coronavirus customer. >> one of the things we have to focus on is being prepared for any condition. so we have scenarios that we are ready to roll out and implement at any point time. so is it a possible scenario the floor could close? yes, we are prepared for that we test every quarter. coincidentally, we actually have a test on saturday to prepare for any of our market participants to interact remotely if needed. jack: during these volatile weeks i have not heard of any glitches on the floor the near stock exchange.
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in past decades that is happened in moments of high volatility. what you doing right? so it is so important for us to make sure technology can scale with market conditions. i think a lot of people don't realize how much messaging we process here at the exchange. it's more than any other exchange in the world. volatility is a time when investors tend to get a little jittery. we want to make sure we can maintain that confidence. markets aren't always going to go but they need to work. so we have state-of-the-art platform that make sure our customers are getting exactly the same type of experience, every time they sent in order to assist same amount of time it takes us back to them so they know the markets are operating the way they're supposed to. jack: let me ask you another change over time over the next stock exchange free when you were on the floor is a specialist, there were not very many women in that world. and still it's very much a debt male dominated industry. what you tell young women who want to get into finance customer.
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>> i think is very important when you're part of a male dominated industry to be yourself. what makes you different is what makes you even more unique and special for the organization. diversity is so important in business, not just because it's an important buzzword in the industry, but it actually makes the business stronger to have diversity. so don't try to fit in, play your game. jack: you have a very interesting perch appear you speak of ceos and investors. but from your perch appear, you see tick by tick trades. you know what it is because all the action is traded here. so what you think what is a market selling in our quest mark. >> i think the market is digesting a lot of news and there's been a combination of both what people are consuming about the virus as well as the election cycle. at any time there's uncertainty in the market, that's typically when the market really reacts. we are an unprecedented uncertain times for it i will say, i have lived through uncertain environments and then it market. i worked out a trade on the floor for many years prayed we get through to the other
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side. you learn, you build that resiliency and you have to stay calm, that's the most important part of navigating and uncertain waters. jack: causation changes but this i'm not different. >> no it's not, over time the market starts in the lower corner of the chart, and moves to the upper right. and it's just not a straight line. jack: some companies these days are not going for the liquid market as early as they used to. were seeing this trend where they are saying private so much longer, amassing these massive valuations. sometimes of the come to the public market, things work out for them. what you thought a megatrend customer. >> jack, i think that's a very important issue and i don't think we can overstate how important it is. my company saying private longer, they are limiting access to investors have opportunities in the fastest growing companies. they are leading to evaluations that aren't based on buyers and sellers coming together in a real liquid environment. so they are not actually representative of the value of the company. and they are also allowing --
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there's a lack of discipline and governments and private companies of the public market just demands. so i think those three things are really contributing to what we are seeing in a bifurcation of wealth in the nation. i don't think we should take that too lightly, we need to make sure we are opening up all of our investment opportunities all investors. jack: what time you mention it is capitals needing attunement. so absolutely i am a capitalist and this is been the engine that has really powered the growth of this nation for 228 years. and yet, we want to make sure we maintain some of its core principles. it's a story of shared success. we need to make sure we are sharing that success with everyone. and not letting the private markets become too much of that story. jack: one newish way of going public as a direct listing. >> one of the great things about that is open to the everyone the same time for this artificial constraint with that prices paid. jack: the insiders on getting it. >> juergen the ipo the night before when that initial
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public offering is happening prayed is only a subset of investors that are part of that process. they are actually not even able to buy as much as they want to. they might only receive a reduced allocation. and the next day, there are restrictions on who can sell it there locked up. so direct listing really takes away all the artificial constraints and allows buyers and sellers to set the price. and that is price discovery at spinous. jack: you sound very optimistic is there anything that keeps you up and i customer. >> i have been in this business for long time, you know how to power through periods of stress. i certainly am very sympathetic to markets going up and down, and recognizing there's a lot of risk there. my job as a think about what is around the corner and how do we prepare for that? that's certainly what i do. jack: good luck with that. see megabucks thank you jack. jack: to see the other 99 women are list go to barron's.com. coming apple the fed's emergency rate cut alleviate market concerns over market concerns over coronavirus there's smart and then there's street smart,
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jack: the fed cut its benchmark interest rate by a half-point to combat coronavirus rocking the market. as monetary or fiscal policy be the answer? joining me now and wharton school finance professor jeremy siegel. thank you very much for joining us professor. let's start with the big picture of your economic outlook. i'm here you said a shallow recession might be on the horizon? >> absolutely. when you are growing in only 2%, it doesn't take much to wipe out that 2% increase. with the entertainment industry is a huge portion of the u.s. and world economy. obviously that's going to slow
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down. so i could see a couple quarters, potentially of negative gdp growth, later this year. >> so the stock market is forward-looking so is this pricing? are you a buyer seller this point? >> for long-term investors, i am a buyer. even if earnings get ravaged, this year, one has to remember that over 90% of the value of stocks, is due to its profits of more than 12 months into the future. if you do the math on valuation and everyone agrees on that, we could have a 20% decline i'm not forecasting it, how much can be wiped out if we bounce back in 2021, i think that's what everyone expects. these viruses come and go, we
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will have a strong economy in 2021. and that should not lead to a bear market. that said, we know history. fear can drive us into a bear market 20%. that would not surprise me. but i do not believe that is economically or financially justified. >> recently made a call we can see the dow jones industrial hit 40000 and the next four to five years. how do you feel about the call now? >> oh yeah, i still think that is true. again, should we change our 2021? 2020 absolutely. but should be changed 2021? forecast as a result. look at today's labor report. look how strong our economy is going into this crisis. and i think that is really important as the doctors will tell you.
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a strong patient is going to be able to withstand any disease far better than a week patient. jack: that's a good analogy. let's talk about medicine. so the feds 50 basis point surprise cut the market is pricing in another 50 basis point cut. is that the right medicine right now? you don't cure a virus with a rate cut you don't fix and supply chain with a rate cut. >> this is partly supply chain, but this is mostly still a demand shock, it's cancellations of travel. cancellations of going out of concerts of so many activities. that is demand. even more important than that, remember there are hundreds of billions of dollars of loans to small businesses that are based on that fed rates, on the prime rate, on the live rate. if we can give relief there, it's not going to be a cure-all to say the least. if we can give relief there, let's give relief there.
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>> is a just bringing down the cost said that death inquest mark i'm trying to imagine a person out there think you are doing a piece of business thinking i'm an out hold out for quarter-point lower on my finance rate i don't know that's can happen anywhere in the world right now do you get any added benefit is the rates move lower from here? >> you are right. i don't think that's going to be a decision a while go ahead with this project. small businesses have loans outstanding to finance their business. that's always a cost. and interest costs. lowering that rates it is not going to do more projects is just going to relieve some of their expense during a time when the revenues are challenged. i think that is positive. >> how about an infrastructure bonanza. i heard all these ideas about spending, i don't know whether they'll get stimulus or not. thing about infrastructures whether i get stimulus to get the stuff after you spent the
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money. wouldn't a multitrillion dollar infrastructure package be a good idea? >> i think it has been a good idea for for five years it supposedly been agreed upon by the republicans and the democrats. we've got nothing over this time. very honestly, for this coronavirus i would advocate if it gets to that and not sing were there yet a temporary payroll tax, holiday we would say attacks cut will be much faster to get congress to agree out what kind of infrastructure, when to start it, by then we could be coming out of the coronavirus a targeted payroll cuts. if we need it. i think would be the best fiscal action that we would be able to take. speed nine that would certainly work a lot faster and those infrastructure plays can be a long-term policy. thanks so much.
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kennedy: jack, like a lot of companies, dow jones is up this week to see if we worked at home you did pretty well but there is a little glitch my home office. >> you have to be careful in these times when you are doing the telecommuting from home. part of my job is talking with top company chiefs on the phone. i do it all the time. i had a situation i'm not getting so every last detail but my son who is five, barges into the room and a head to toe star wars storm trooper uniform. never mind that it's 120 something days past halloween he's hollering that my
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daughter had changed his netflix that something i can't repeat on the show. my dog starts barking in the background. you gotta stay focused yet be careful out there. jack: i wish we had a picture of your son, at least give your dog my dog is marianne. >> that is ginger too, she is taking up distance from me there. that's not a professional shot. jack: people are saying on stocking up one of the places are stock it was walmart. >> 's or action item for this week, number of these stay-at-home stocks are people either buying goods to stock up, or whatever. a number of them have had a huge run. walmart, compared to costco hasn't had that run. we think a cells room to go. jack: ben, you're right it's a big one. >> do nothing. get your asset allocation right, make sure you have the right mix of stocks and bonds so that the market drops him or you can stomach it. but don't do anything. when the market is dropping 4% one day going up 4% the next
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day, you don't want to be a hero. just let the volatility died out. to make it a level little so thanks everybody great ideas. for more check out this week's edition of barron's roundtable and don't forget to follow us on days. see you back at 4:00 eastern. eric: see you then. ♪ ♪ paul: welcome to the journal editorial report. i'm paul gigot, joe biden with stunning resurrection winning 10 of 14 primary to knock michael bloomberg and elizabeth warren out of the race and take the delegate lead over senator bernie sanders. so how did the former vice president do it, and what comes next in the democratic presidential race? let's ask wall street journal columnist and deputy editor dan henninger, columnist kim strassel and columnist senior fellow jason riley. kim, i have this view of myself that what happened here w

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