my guest will be author john berry, author of "the great influenza." that's here on "the wall street journal at large." thank you very much for joining us. ♪ ♪ jackie: welcome to "barron's round table" where we prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter: the three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. stocks rallied sharply on indications that measures to slow the spread of coronavirus may be working in some states, but the impact on earnings is still unknown. the entertainment industry has been hard hit, we spoke to disney chairman bob iger about changes coming to the company's iconic theme parks and how the world has changed for utility companies and what that manes for investors -- means for investors.

ben leveson and jack howe. ben, i want to start with you. we got a glimmer of hope as we see maybe social distancing is actual working, the growth of coronavirus cases is slowing. we also, of course, had unprecedented moved by the -- moves by the federal reserve. so tell us what you see in the market. >> it's got everything that it could have wanted this week. it got the good news, the illness appears to be slowing and then the fed coming in with this massive package where it's going to buy high-yield bonds and muni bonds to make sure that the markets are functioning correctly. you couldn't ask for anything more. and it's just, it's just spurred the market back to this height that it's had. it's now up more than 20% from the bottom. jon jon which is extraordinary, but you don't necessarily see this continuing. we're not going to see a v straight back to 30,000 on the dow. >> it just usually doesn't

happen that way. there's the too much that can go wrong. we can see the disease either pick up again or maybe even show up in the next six months or so. it's gone away then pop back up again and then, of course, there's the earnings front which is, it's going to start next week, and we just don't expect earnings to be good, and that's kind of known. but the market likes certainty. it's going to want to hear news, and then we're going to start seeing earnings pop back up again and start to recover. chances of that are slim right now. jackie: in fact, carl, you've been looking at bank earnings. >> i have. i'm also fascinated with bank earnings. to give you a sense of the underlying economy -- and, remember, just last week the banks started lending to small businesses. what we're looking for is not just the earnings, but a sense of what businesses are they lending to, what industries. we really want the banks to give us more economic data because outside of the jobless claims,

there has been a lag on economic data recently. jack: jack howe, what's your take on earnings starting next week? >> earnings are going to look terrible, right? not only that, if i were a company out there, i would throw everything in that i had lying around this year because you get a pass. i just want to say, you know, i agree with ben that it would be unusual for the dow to go right back to 30,000, but the whole world is unusual right now. when you think about the amount of stimulus that we have, remember the decade leading up to the pandemic. what we saw is that we had a lot of stimulus then. it's a lot easier to stimulate the stock market than it is to stimulate gdp. we saw a decade where we were disappointed we didn't get much above 2%, but we got rip roaring gains in the stock market. i'm not saying the market should hit new highs right away, i'm saying i wouldn't be surprised if it does. jack: in order for the economy to come back, we're going to need the consumer. you spoke to bob iger about his

view from the magic mountain, what disney is looking at for the coming quarters. >> yeah. if you think about, like, the disney world theme park, to me that's so, such an emblem of, like, the economy being shut down and us wondering what it's going to look like when it opens back up again, what will attendance at the parks look like. disney's not making forecasts, but i did speak with bob iger about what business might look like after the open. we have a clip of that. let's listen. >> just as we now do checks for everybody that goes into our parks, it could be we add a component that takes people's temperatures. >> now, jack, the idea of someone having their temperature taken on the way in to one of these parks night sound jarring, but let's just remember it used to be jarring to think we would have to take our shoes off before getting on an airplane or have purses and backpacks checked on the way into theme parks. so the world gets used to new things that it needs to make

people feel safe, and it might be just before we have a vaccine this is what's needed to get these parks up and running again. so if i had to characterize how bob iger sounded, i would say he sounds optimistic as usual but also realistic about how long it might take to get back to normal, if we get back to normal. jack: i want to go to you on something that is of interest to especially conservative investors. barron's takes a deep dive into utility stocks this week. >> yeah. a lot of people like utilities for the safe, stable dividend. but with more people staying at home, you don't have as much commercial electric usage. these are businesses that have a lot of debt and expensively run. so we ran a screen on which companies have the safest looking dividends, american electric power, dominion energy all yielding around 2.3-4.6%. jack: and i had an interesting

talk with ryan hedrick with t. rowe price, with commodity prices so lower and renewables being an ever larger share, sunlight and wind are free marginally, he thinks utilities can actually get the same revenue but make more money because their cost is going to go down. it's an interesting view and good if you happen to be an income investor. coming up, can smart thermometers track and prevent the spread of co19? that's next -- covid-19? that's next.

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coronavirus. smart thermometers can help predict the future of covid-19 outbreaks, here to explain, the ceo. thank you so much for joining us. just real quick, explain how your thermometers work and what they can tell health authorities. >> so we turned the most common medical device into a communication system. it guides you on next steps, whether to go to the there or treat this at home. we now have more than a million households using these products across america, so we're able to map fevers across the cup. on march 18th we launched health weather u.s. which shows where fever levels are high or low above and beyond what you would normally expect for cold and flu season. that's the first and best sign of covid-19's spread in the community. jack: so as of today, where's it growing, where's it getting better? >> so we're -- i'm excited the say that we're seeing every location where there's been aggressive social distancing,

stay at home, shelter in place, we're seeing fevers get close to zero. that's really an encouraging sign. that doesn't mean that cocovid cases won't increase, but it does mean the number of newly infected people is dropping dramatically. the one location where we're not seeing it go towards zero is new york city. and that's a concern. new york is a high density city, and it's probably very hard to do aggressive social distancing for extended periods there, so i am concerned about new york, and i think everyone right now is pretty concerned about new york. jack: there's been a lot of talk about measuring temperatures at points of entry, but you're focused on the family. why is that in. >> yeah. so we want to be able to talk to people while they're still in their home before they ever go to a port, before they go to a baseball stadium. and we found that provides the earliest of early warning signals. if you see something spreading in the home, that's a good indicator it may start spreading in the local community, and

that's why we work with people in their house. and the reason, of course, is we can help people get better. it's not just an early warning system, it's also an early response system. jack: should people be worried about privacy issues? they're being tracked somehow? >> i'm glad you asked that. the answer is no. we do not share personal data at all. what we share is population health information, the percentage of people in a county that are sick. there's just no way to identify an individual from an illness signal like that. jon but interestingly, a parent can look at your app and tell if, you know, their fifth grade student maybe is just part of a broader problem in the school and whether it's a big problem or not a problem at all. can you explain that? >> yeah. so in about 1500 schools across the country, mostly title i schools, we have given away thermometers for free. they're entirely free for the community, and you as a parent and a nurse and teachers can now

see whether the illness level's high or low in the school and where it's spreading. and, you know, nurses can message out to the community, they can message out to an individual grade and the parents in that grade saying, hey, here's what's going around, and here are the actions you should take. one of the reasons why we've done this program is schools are one of the places that illness spreads rapidly. school children bring it to their parents, they take it to work or spread it to the grand parents. and the first question you always ask what's going around, right? everything starts the same way. and the question is, is it flu, is it strep throat, is it something else, is it covid-19. so that program really helps us to understand what's going on, and it also helps us to help the community respond. i'm really excited and encouraged by the program. it's shown that we can curb flu spread over the last several years, and we believe it's going to be even more important with covid-19. jack: can you tell us two states that i believe you are

announcing partnerships with, but then more importantly, how should health authorities be using this sort of technology in the future to nail covid-19 and then prevent futurer pandemics? >> yeah, so i'm excited that we're starting to work with states, i can't announce who they are, i don't have permission. we're starting to work with state and local governments to deploy more smart thermometers into the community. think of this as an early warning system. it's a system that says finish it's like a lightbulb going off on a map saying something's going on here, send the test kits in, the virologists in, and it's really, really important to have an early warning system so you can direct resources to where they need to go, and that's what we've built. jack: you would like to see federal or state authorities ask health providers to ago redate this information, send it to you or someone else so there's a national database, is that right? >> yeah. i see this as just fundamental infrastructure for our country

of we're using 21st century technology to understand where and when disease is starting and spreading. how do you stop an epidemic if you don't know where it's starting and spreading? you can't. so this is the kind of technology that needs to be out there as that early warning beacon, right? saying, again, send the test kits in, the virologists in, and you can also monitor how effect you have your interventions are. if you see fever levels dropping to zero, that's a good sign that you're breaking the chain of infection. jack: thank you so much. keep us informed as to how this is all going. coming up, can the market reaction to the 2008-2009 financial crisis predict how the market will move during the fight against coronavirus? research cofounder nicholas co-op weighs in, that's next.

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♪ ♪ jack: what can the 2008-2009 bear market tell us about how stocks will perform in the coming weeks? day the that track research cofounder nicholas colas joins the round table. your daily newsletter is a must-read for me, and i appreciate that. one thing i've learned recently is that the current bear market has been tracking very closely to the 2008-2009 bear market. so first of all, given that the causes are so different, why would that be? and maybe more importantly, what does it tell us about what's coming up next week? >> so you're right, they have been tracking very close toly, and the stark points are the end of september in '08 versus march of 2020. the reason they track so similarly is because markets basically, when they see a crisis come along, are looking for a policy response from

washington. the faster that policy response comes both in terms of fiscal and monetary policy, the more quickly they can heal and bin to see through to the other side. so crises are always going to be call and response between markets and washington responses. and so that's why they track so similarly. as far as what it says for the future, the '08 experience tells us that we still have some volatility the come. the equivalent week to week coming up was the week of the election in 2008. is thankfully, we don't have that kind of political instability. but we do have a lot of earnings uncertainty, so we're using the '08 playbook as way to explain to our clients there's still more volatility to come even with the rally we've had. jack: you're kind of reading the jay powell tea lees, what do you think is going on in his head, and is he specifically trying to target the stock market with his actions? >> he is not, but it's going to have a powerful effect on stocks as we saw. what he's trying to do basically give the country a bridge loan

through the next 90, 180 even longer in terms of days the make sure that no company fail because they don't have access to liquidity because of what will hopefully be a temporary shutdown of the economy. that is having a powerful effect on stocks because if you lop off the bankruptcy end of the return curve, obviously stocks will rally. and that's what we saw on friday, a relief that we're not going to have an unruly set of bankruptcies coming out in the next six months because the fed is that backstop. jack: gotcha. ben, you had a question. >> i did, yes with. earnings are coming out, and that seems like it's going to be a big test for the market. do you think the market can pass that test? >> yeah, it's a great point. look, we were running about 160 a share in earnings on the s&p last year, and if we do the '08-'09 overlay, we can expect earnings to be down roughly 50% in the first half of this year, and that makes a lot of sense.

we've seen a huge contraction. that taxes us to like a $70 a quarter run rate for earnings which is pretty good all things considered, but markets will be looking for color from companies, from sectors not only about their current cash burn rates, but anything they can tell the us about how things might shape up in the back half of the year based on whatever scenario they think is most likely. it'll be very important to listen to companies give color on that next week and the week after. >> and i was just curious, your add vice historically has been to buy when the market falls by 5%. is that still your playback? >> it is. that was the advice we gave clients at the very beginning of this process. every down 5% day is a truly unusual day in u.s. stocks. versus the normal 1% rates that is we know and historically says is the right average range. so you hit the 5%, you know things are very unusual, there's a lot of panic in the area, and those are the days you want to buy. if we see more 5% days, we are still recommending clients buy

those closes because the '08-'09 history says clearly that's the best way to get into a good position for the recovery. >> hey, nick, the fed seems to be willing to buy anything that's not tied down including high-yield bonds, and you've written that that's bullish for small caps. why is that? >> you know, small caps, let's say the russell 2000, for example, small caps typically are companies that more likely are not profitable than, say, s&p 500 companies. about a third of the russell's aren't profitable. they need access to and, you know, decently-priced capital usually in the high yield or bank loan markets to keep their long-term growth plans alive. so high-yield spreads are a real tell about the access to is and cost of lower, non-investment grade quality debt. when those spreads contract, and clearly the fed is trying to make them contract because of what they're doing, it tends to be the case that smaller cap stocks outperform. from the march 23rd lows, the

russell 2000's only on par with the s&p, so if high yield spreads come down further, small caps should outperform the s&p. and history says 8ing 0 president of the time -- 80% of the time that's exactly what happens. jack: thanks, nick. this past week we did see the russell edge the s&p 500, so i think you might be right on the money there. up next, round table members give their investment ideas for the coming week. stay right there. ♪ ♪ iopen road and telling people that liberty mutual customizes your insurance, so you only pay for what you need! [squawks] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ that's why lincoln offers you the ability to purchase a new vehicle remotely with participating dealers.

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♪ ♪ jack: jack, you and i spoke earlier about disney, but you've been looking at the whole entertainment, travel spectrum. what are you hearing? >> one analyst likes comcast.

broadband is the biggest part of the business and, obviously, everyone's using plenty of that. he also likes netflix. keep in mind production is shut down. netflix makes every show or at least it seems like that, so it will be forced the save money during this town turn. another analyst covers the cruise lines, he actually likes royal and norwegian stock right now. he says the risk has never been greater, but he views it as a binary outcome. if these companies can survive, their stocks might double or triple. it's a big if. if you want to hear that whole conversation with bob iger, check out the barron's street wise podcast. jack: interesting point on the cruise lines. i don't know if i'd want to take a cruise, but if they don't go out of business, maybe it's a good price. >> yeah. not for me on the cruises or the buy. [laughter] jack: carlton, i want to start with you for our actionable ideas, and you've been channeling your inner peter

lynch for this one. [laughter] >> yeah. i'm taking a look at dollar tree e this week. a lot of people are hoping for a v-shaped recovery, but even if we with get that, it's not going to affect all people equally. just walking around my neighborhood, i'm seeing lines to get into the dollar tree. we saw it during the financial crisis of 2008 where the dollar stores expect discount retailers performed better. is so going forward, i think dollar tree, they had an activist involved last year, they made some changes, and i think it could be a good play going forward. jack: ben, i don't know if you have any experience with ulta, but you like the stock. [laughter] >> the stores are shut down, that's hurt, but it's going the move to online, it's not something you can buy on amazon. it's looking interesting here. jack: thanks very much, ben, carlton also liked your idea and, jack, always entertaining. to read more, check out this week's edition at barron's.com. don't forget to follow us on

twitter. stay safe, wear your masks. that's all for us. see you next week on "the barron's round table." ♪ ♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." >> and welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. maria is off this weekend, i'm david asman. coming up in just a few moments, maria's one-on-one with shake shack ceo to talk about how the restaurant chain survived the economic slowdown. then her interview with treasury is secretary steve mnuchin about the rollout of the first round of stimulus and blackstone ceo steven schwartzman on what blackstone is doing to help new york's first respond's. but first -- responders.