be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram. i'll be back next week right here on the "wall street journal at large." thank you for joining us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to "beltway -- barron's round table," i'm jack otter. despite dismal news in the economy, stocks posted their best monthly performance since 1987. what's driving the disconnect, and the rally be sustained? an economic recovery will depend largely on consumers' ability to start buying again. once restrictions are lifted, where are americans likely to spend their money? will government moves to keep meat plants avert a disruption

in the food chain supply? my colleagues ben leveson, carlton english and jack howe. so the worst month in the markets since the great depression, april the best month in the market in 33 years. can you explain the schizophrenia and explain to viewers why the market and the economy can seem to be going in different directions. >> this is kind of what the market does. it's forward-looking. so it's looking to deterrence and what's happening next. when the market was falling apart in march, nobody was saying, oh, look how great the data was in february that. 's kind of what's happening now. in april we got this bad data, but we knew it was coming. and there was some good news this month. the number of coronavirus cases slowed. we have some states that are reopening, even possible treatment that might work meaning that people get sick, they can go and it's not going to be as bad as it might have

been. and this is all good news that the market was responding to. >> hey, ben, i see plenty of good news, i see an awful lot of bad news still coming. isn't it really all about the fed right now? we had a decade before the pandemic where we we learned when the fed tried to stimulate the economy, it often stimulates the stock market more. this time around it's already bought junk bonds, i think it might start going around the country and buying old bicycles from garage sales by the time the summer's over, what do you think? >> i think that's absolutely true. without the fed doing what it's going, you can't get that balance, and you're seeing some of that play out in the stocks that have been leading this market higher. the tech stocks, still amazon and still google, and it's still facebook, and it's still, and it's -- these fang stocks have really just pushed the market higher, and they're showing just why as they released earnings. microsoft is winning everywhere.

facebook and alphabet showed that advertising isn't as bad as we thought. and amazon, it's down on friday, but, you know, it's because -- it's not because they're not bringing in a ton of revenue, it's just because they're spending a lot on safety. they've been leading the market higher, and that's gotten some people worried that these fang stocks are the only thing that's working, and it is something with we do have to worry about in the future. we want to see more stocks helping to lead this market higher. jack: that's a good point, ben. what indicators will you be looking for to suggest maybe the rest of the economy can catch up? >> well, the first thing we have to watch is jobs, and i don't mean the payroll report that's going to come out next week. we want to watch jobless claims. they've been getting less bad ever week. we'd like to see that trend continue. the other thing i want to watch is consumer confidence. it's bad right now, but if you look inside the numbers, the outlook isn't too bad at all. so i think you need to see that outlook hold up. if that starts to suffer, maybe

the consumer doesn't start spending again, and that can really prolong this down turn. jon on the other hand, ben, i like hearing you say something positive, that the numbers don't look that bad, because viewers will remember that back in january before we'd ever heard of covid-19, you were warning a little bit about the economy. carlton, i want you to talk about this week's "barron's" cover story which is the outlook for that all-important consumer in the economy. >> exactly. as you know, the consumer sector represents about 70% of our gdp, and in march we saw that drop about 75. remember --7.5%. right now we have 30 million people who have filed for unemployment, and we know that there's always been a savings problem in this country. people have always had trouble, you know, 40% of people have had trouble putting together money in an emergency. we have to wonder how resilient that consumer is going to be. in other downturns we tend to focus on savings more after the

financial crisis of 2008-2009, the savings rate was roughly 8% versus around 3% in the years before. so, you know, there's going to be this lag on how quickly consumers are going to be wanting to spend and shop. jack: sure. so, you know, ben talked about the tech stocks. all you have to do is look at a chart of the tech etf versus xrt which is consumers, retail, and the divergence there is extraordinary. you, however, have spotted a few consumer stocks that would do well. you were positive on chlorox and, sure enough, at the end of this week we saw great earnings from them. what are some other names that we think can hold up in the post-covid-19 economy? >> yeah. so the real focus for the consumer, i think, is going to be health, wellness and home. so the stocks we think are going to hold up well, healthy balance sheets, walmart, costco, lowe's, you know, these companies that, you know, have the products that meet the consumer demand for right now.

jack: i want to go to jack real quick. freezers are selling out because people are stocking up on meat, but this question is will they have any meat to put in those freezers? >> yeah, it's an important question. we had more than 20% of pork capacity in the united states shut down at one point this past week. when i hear a thing like thatting i think about stocks a distant second. i think about pork chop night fist. the good news is that bank of america says not to expect outages at grocery stores. first of all, the white house has already gotten involved here, they want to keep these plants open. we saw some that had closed reopen. there is good supply in cold storage of meats that at one point would have been headed for restaurants, now those can be diverted to grocery stores. so there's no need for customer to run up there and hoard just in terms of stocks. meatpackers like tyson or hormel, bank of america still likes tyson but more for

long-term effects there. they could see higher selling prices, but they have higher costs for things like cleaning and keeping staff. jack: coming up, how the coronavirus is changing the industry -- the energy industry. that's next. ♪ ♪

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right now. obviously; one of the keys to getting that back in the alignment is to restart the economy. but otherwise what is the path toward getting supply and demand in line again? >> well, the supply/demand imbalance started before the tragedy hit us. there was a lot of strength in production which most of the big producers -- russia and in particular saudi arabia -- did not want to continue. and so they decided that they would begin to open the taps up. they prepared for that, and then suddenningly a collapse. so we had a big collapse in demand, 7 million barrels, and inventories are filling up very quickly to maximum level. so we need all these things to happen. we need supply to be are reduced, demand to go up and inventories to come down. that's a tall order. it'll take a long time for that to happen.

jack: obviously, the saudis and the russians want to make money by selling oil, but there's a lot more than that beneath the surface, a lot of geo politics going on. would you be able to just briefly hit the key points of what those two nations are trying to achieve with us? >> well, in sum, it is about the share of the market that they will be able to maintain for the long term. they have more oil in reserves than anybody else, and they want to make sure that they can produce it and market it. and they felt very threatened by everybody else coming in and producing more, not least the united states of becomeing the largest liquid producer in the entire world but also some other places in the world where oil was being found. so they figured out that, obviously, they were the lowest cost producers. they are very low cost, indeed. if they reduced the price, other

people would stop production. that isn't always the case, of course. so that was very important. it is an expression of their power. after all, you don't have too many things to talk about. you have oil and gas when you are saudi arabia and the stability of the middle east. and for russia, obviously, a nuclear power but also in terms of trade globally, it's oil and gas. these things are very important to those two nations. jack: there's another very long-term force that's going to weigh on prices here. certainly you've got concern growing around the globe, especially in europe, about carbon footprint. as a globe we're getting a little more efficient in our use of oil and, of course, the cost of solar and wind is is coming could be to the point where it starts to get competitive with carbon sources. how do you look at that affecting a long-term outlook for energy? >> well, a little known fact is this, that over many years the amount of oil you put into a unit of gdp has come down by

around 1.5% a year. so we really have become very efficient, indeed. as we obviously have offset by an expansion of gdp in the world. but when that levels or comes down, then you should expecting oil consumption to come down. on top of that, there is this very big challenge of climate change and reducing the carbon emissions into the atmosphere. so that challenge will be with us, and it's oil and gas contribute to that significantly. so i do think that challenge will be with us because people will still remember the impact of our natural phenomenon causing tragedy, covid-19. we certainly won't like the impact of climate change. i think that's, will be in

people's minds. jack: i really appreciate your insights, lord john browne. coming up, as the market reacts to the ups and downs of the coronavirus crisis, how should long-term investors position themselves for the future? the panel tackles that next. ♪ ♪ i just love hitting the open road and telling people that liberty mutual customizes your insurance, so you only pay for what you need! [squawks] only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ it's my own thing that i can do for me. since i don't have time to read, i mean i might as well listen. if i want to catch up on the news, or history, or learn what's going on in the world, i can download a book and listen to it. i listen to spanish lessons sometimes to and from work. yea, it makes me want to be better. audible reintroduced this whole world to me.

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♪ ♪ jack: how should long-term investors handle the wild swings in the market? joining me now, daniel wiener. thanks so much for joining us. you are a barron's top ranked end dependent adviser, and i've heard one of the fastest bicyclists in brooklyn. i don't know if that's' true or not. if that's true or not. >> i'm only faster than a few people. you, actually, are faster than i am. [laughter] jack: i want to ask you what you're telling clients. surely, you have prepared them

for the fact that downturns do occur, but give us a sense of when they see their portfolio falling fast in march, what are you saying to them? >> well, the first thing we said was, you know, these events like a pandemic are things you can't prepare for, but what we did prepare for was what we call the rainy day. so every one of our clients has money set aside for those rainy days. we said this is the rainy day. go use some of that cash. we're not going to make huge changes to your portfolio to respond to this, but, in fact, you know, what we saw was that big drop in march, the big rebound coming out of march into april, so, you know, the clients are pretty happy. we also have shown them that bear markets last much shorter periods of time than bull markets, and bull markets go up a lot more than bear markets go down. and so the haas part is, you

know, the stock market today is down about 9% for the year. most years intraday -- intrayear on average stocks are down about 14%. so if you look at where the stock market is today, okay. your normal year. >> hey, dan, it's jack howe. first of all, i hope you and jack otter are not wearing bicycle shorts right now underneath the camera. let's keep it professional. i keep hearing from analysts that price to earnings ratios for the market are high right now, and that means you can still get decent long-term returns, but they'll be lower. i hear people say 5-6% annual total returns over the next decade. what do you say about that? >> well, i say two things. number one, p.e. has never been a good indicator of what stocks are going to generate for you down the road. i mean, even vanguard did a huge study on all the different metrics that you can look at in

the market, and p.e., although it was the best of all the metrics they looked at, it had less than a 50% success rate in predicting returns. the second thing is p.e. is price over earnings. or where are people getting their earnings expectations from? where are they getting their estimates? if you want to estimate 3% earnings growth and you want to add on the current 2% dividend yield on the s&p, okay, i can give you a 5% return. but, you know, that -- where they're getting their earningsings estimate for that p.e. is beyond me. jack: and, dan, you think you can do better than that 5% with managers that will pick stocks rather than buy the index. >> well, we're huge believers in active management. i mean, i also understand that on average most managers will underperform their benchmarks. we don't go for the average manager -- [laughter] we're looking for the best of the best, and the managers that we have invested with, a all of

us at my company and all of our clients, are the best of the best. and so they do outperform. pick an area of interest, we-a great manager there. it's just that most people look at the averages and they say, oh, i can't do the research necessary to find those great managers. jack: can you name a couple funds you like? >> sure. well, first of all, you all have been doing a lot of writing in "barron's" recently about dividend stocks. don kilbright, vanguard's growth dividend fund, is an incredible manager. he's outperformed the index. when you look at his long-term returns over bull and bear markets over a full market sign cycle, he's substantially outperformed, and he's doing it right now. i think, you know, down around with the market right now, but over a couple months, big deal. you will see him outperform over time. another one, far more aggressive

clients we've been investing in a very small bailey gifford fund, that's actually up 12% this year. they are invested in a lot of these fang stocks, but they have an incredible long-term record. i can keep going. we've got a great health care manager. we've always had a big overweight to health care in our portfolios, and, you know, health care's down, what, 2%? for the year? >> you mentioned staying in health care, other sectors you like? >> well, we've been, actually, it's less of a sector and more we're very interested in small and mid cap stocks overseas. one of our researchers, liz, did an incredible job for us looking into risk and return in small caps overseas. and what she discovered was, you know, you've got a universe, 4,000 companies in 40 countries.

unlike in the u.s., the risk return on small caps, overseas small caps is much better than they are over here. 90 of these companies have profits -- 90% of these companies is have profited. they're really to doing quite well, and our managers are doing quite well with them. jack: thank you so much, daniel. i look forward to a year or two from now when those blue mountains are back and our returns are fantastic. stay right there. ♪ ♪ i was born in '37... it was a very struggling period of time. up and down. depression to exuberance. and you could name many, many cycles like that over the years. my generation, having come through so many wars and so many things... persistence. it's the heartbeat of this country. stick with it. ♪

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annoying. little did i know, it would prove quite useful. >> yeah. you tech-savvy smarty pants are very well aware of these company. we've seen companies like moth that have done so well -- microsoft that have done so well, relatively in this pandemic, so i spoke to chiefs of these two companies, okta wants to be the place to access your workplace cloud apps. both of these chiefs say it's early days, and the new work from home economy is only accelerating the shift to these kind of cloud tools. jack: i have a feeling we will be relying on this sort of thing more and more. i do want to go get one actionable idea from both carlton and ben. carlton, i'm going to start with you. if there is only one brand that every person in my family wears,

it's probably nike. >> absolutely. and nike is the one that i'm taking a look at this week. it has a strong balance sheet. they figured out online or which is super important right now. and they've learned lessons from china when it comes to reopening that they can apply to the u.s. and other regions. yes, we have no sports, but looking at the pent-up demand for sports. the views on the nfl draft and "the last dance," people are going to be shopping for this brand on the other side of this crisis, i think. jack: they've done a great job by creating demand. ben, a very different kind of stock from you. >> yeah. i like regeneron. this week it's dropped about 9%, it's working on some covid-19 treatments but a number of other things, and i think it can get that same sort of a-load that gilead had. so it's looking quite interesting. jack: thanks a lot for. that's love your insights. to read more, check out this

week's edition at barron's.com and don't forget to follow us on twitter at barron's online. that is all for us, see you next week on "barron's roundtable." mug. ♪ new york city, this is maria bart row''s -- bart bartiromo's "wall street." maria: happy weekend, everybody, i'm maria bartiromo. thanks for joining me this weekend. coming up in just a few moments, we've got the president and ceo of the dallas federal reserve, robert kaplan, to talk about the central bank expanding efforts to help businesses and workers during the covid-19 crisis and assessing the economy today. we're expecting we are in a recession right now. but first, u.s. equities had their best month in decades in the month of april. however, the coronavirus pandemic continues to wreak havoc on the broader economy. u.s.u.s.