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tv   Barrons Roundtable  FOX Business  July 18, 2020 10:00am-10:31am EDT

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sure to follow us on twitter, facebook and instagram. gerry will be back next week with more in-depth interviews right here on "the wall street journal at large." joining us.reeman, thanks for ♪ ♪ >> "barron's roundtable", sponsored by: ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines, i'm jack otter. coming up, what you can do to equip yourself for the new reality of work and how to future-proof your career. we begin with what we think are the three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. the powerful rally e in tech stocks showing signs of faltering. what to look for as big nameses announce earnings next week. the ipo market, though, continues to boom. which new issues are surging in the outlook for the coming months. and retailers have been hit hard by the covid-19 crisis, but
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dollar stores seem to be weathering the storm. on the "barron's roundtable", ben, carlton and jack. thanks for joining us, guys. good to see jack howe back in the group. so, ben, every single week i say the same thing to you which is how much longer can tech stocks keep zooming ahead of the market. finally this week i don't have to say that, they actually lagged this past week. >> they lagged and they lagged badly, down around a full percent. and the s&p was up more than a percent. the gap between the two was actually the widest in any one week since 2016. most of those, that difference calm on monday when the nasdaq actually rallied to what was looked like a new high only to pull back and finish down more than 2%. those kind of reversals don't happen very often, and when they do, it's often a signal that the nasdaq is going to underperform over the next three months or so. jack: so you've been talking for
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a while about cyclical rotation that you think that's going to -- think's going to come one of these days. is it finally here? >> i'm not sure it's full-blown, i think it's more what's been going on during the last three months. tech stocks have been unstoppable, and now we've entered earnings season. and that, those gains have set the expectations really high for tech stocks. we saw that when netflix reported earnings on thursday. the stock fell over 6% because they just couldn't hit the numbers that had been set for them. we should be watching microsoft and tesla and twitter next week when they report because they may also have set the bar too high, and it could be a theme throughout the rest of earnings season. jack: a saw an interesting chart this week and it points out the dispersion between the most expensive stocks and the cheapest is higher now than it was even during the tech bubble. there's a long way to go to revert to the mean. >> right. it's just there's a lot of room
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there. jack: well, speaking of froth, jack, we have had more ipos double so far this year than anytime since 2000, and we're only halfway through the year. >> who doesn't love a nutty ipo market? come on. we've had seven ipos, more than double, as you say. here's the names, lemonade up 139%, that tech the insurance, agora, whichever you like, that's a company that's up 150%, cloud computing. vroom, up 118%, and encino, the biggest one-day pop for a u.s. tech company since august 2000 and that's financial tech. one thing this means is the companies bringing these names public if, they're leaving a lot of money on the table for their clients. they've been underpricing deals. but really what it means is
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there's just incredible demand out there for growth. at a time when the s&p 500 is going to report a 40% earnings this second quarter, everybody wants growth. there's a scarcity of growth. if you have anything growing and if it has anything to do with tech, bring it public now. i think you're going to see a bunch more. jack: and it sounds like it needs a goofy name too. one interesting point is we saw those companies that had been baking so long in the private equity oven that they got pretty big before they went public. this is nice for the individual investor. carlton, i want to ask you about how you've been channeling your inner peter lynch recently. tell us about dollar stores. [laughter] >> well, it's me and my colleague who have the story out this week, and they tend to do well in a variety of economic conditions. but they tend to especially outperform in weaker economic conditions. and that's what we're in now, millions unemployed, benefits set to expire at the end of this month. so the dollar stores, they were
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deemed essential, they were able to stay open. and also an ec e doteally i happen to pass by a dollar tree, and ever since the lockdown started it has always had a line of people to get into the stores. i believe we have a picture just kind of showing for the last four months there's been this line of people to get in even though there's a bunch of other places nearby where people can still get discount essentials and things like that. jack: of the two stocks, is there one you prefer? >> yeah. so dollar general is the one that has done better historically. you know, they tend to have more food products and things like that. dollar tree, though, is the one that we're saying has more growth. they're remodeling some of their stores, they're getting their merchandise right. they suffered a little bit because they had more discretionary items, a lot of party favors and things like that. they're trying to make that right, you know, having the right products that meet the needs of customers. they had a tricky acquisition a few years ago of family dollar. they're working that into the
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family a little bit more. so dollar tree is a little bit cheaper than dollar general, and it's one that we think has room to grow. jack: thanks so much. coming up, aarp ceo joanne jenkins on how the covid-19 has created workplace challenges and opportunities for older americans. that's next, stay right there. that's next, stay right there. ♪
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my money should work as hard as i do. that's why i use my freedom unlimited card every time i get gas. give me a little slack! with freedom unlimited, you're always earning. i said i need some slack on pump three! ♪ ♪ jack: the covid-19 crisis has caused massive changes for companies. while it's created challenges, it's also created unique opportunities. joining me now, one of barron's 100 most influential women infy januaries, aarp ceo joanne jenkins. aarp has identified these mega-trends in the future of work. i wonder if you could run down
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some of those for us. >> well, i think the first thing is really about the use of technology and automation. never before has every one of us needed to learn more about the use of technology whether it's learning to zoom or use microsoft team or be on youtube in order to communicate. i also think it's an opportunity that we're seeing in the marketplace for employers and people of all ages to learn, to be in a position that they're ready to continuously learn new techniques, new certifications, a whole host of keeping learning at the forefront of our conversation. and i also see that in, not only at aarp, but with other employers around the world that the idea of having a multigenerational work force is really coming up with creative solutions that help businesses address problems that they've had for years. and so i would say those three
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trends are so important as companies compete for labor in this very competitive marketplace. jack: and you are teaming up with a lot of companies. your organization and blackrock, bank of america, invesco, to try to drive some changes in the workplace. can you explain what that's all about? >> absolutely. so aarp has for a couple years now sponsored the aarp best places to work and the employer pledge that companies are not going to discriminate against people because of their age. we have over a thousand companies who have signed up to make that pledge that they are looking at, you know, not looking at age as a defining factor in suring somebody or making a judgment -- in hiring somebody or making a judgment about their talents and what they bring to the workplace. so we're is so excited. we hope that we'll be gaining many more people, companies who are going to sign that pledge. but right now we're well over a thousand from all over the world
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who have signed on. jack: wow. that's a good number. i want to ask you about something which is you don't see the workplace or the career path as linear anymore. can you explain what that means? >> so think about this, that if, in fact, you have good health insurance and in good health and do physical exercises, the likelihood of you living to be 80, 90 or 100 is going to be the norm. and so you're going to have the opportunity and the possibility of working some 30, 40, 50 years during the course of a lifetime. so unlike what we used to think about before which was to educate yourself, to get married, to retire, you're going to have 40 or 50 years and possibly have three or four totally different types of careers. and so people are going to have to continuously educate themselves and be this learning mode over the course of a lifetime if, in fact, they're going to stay competitive in the workplace. and i think with the jobs shortages in some of the areas in the health care space and the
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education space and the technology space, it's a wonderful opportunity for older workers to keep themselves technology-savvy e and ready to join the market at any time. particularly as we see, as we've seen in this covid-19 when so many of us are teleworking. it's a huge opportunity for that older worker to be able to use those skills that they've learned over the course of a lifetime in a wonderful place to work. jack: and to that point, you guys have a whole bunch of really helpful opportunities to future-proof your career or have your second or third career. can you give us some of those, some of those bits of advice? >> well, the first one i would say is keep technology in the continuous learning, at the forefront of what you're doing. whether that's through gaining a new certification or learning a new language or learning a new technology skill, i think that's always important. i think for all of us, regardless of your age, that linkedin site needs to be kept
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current. so many employers, that's the first place that they're going when they start recruiting for new individuals coming in to the workplace. this whole idea of teleworking and people working from home, i think, is an opportunity for older workers to stay focused and that they don't have to travel to and from a job, but to be able to conduct that work in their own home. there's also the idea of continuous to learn and that be open to learning new skill sets and working with different kinds of people from all over the world. you don't have to to be located, you know, in the same building in order to be able to work together. and this whole idea that you need to plan to work longer, that you're going to be working some 30, 40, 50 years. many because people have to or in the case of myself because i want to work longer. and i think that's so important. and then i always tell people to get focused on how do you age-proof your resumé. that, you know, focus on your most recent experience, you
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know? eliminate the unnecessary dates in your resumé so that you don't age yourself. probably get rid of that aol e-mail account and get something more current like gmail or verizon or one of the others to make sure that your resumé e is not longer than two pages long. i know as i'm reviewing resumés, i'm likely not getting to that third or fourth page. and so i think that's one of the things that we tell our members that they ought to be focused on. and then really to optimize the language of today whether it's around data analytics or health care issues or some of the recent technology and terminology that focus and make sure that your resumé is current and on point for the job that you're focused on getting. jack: those are great pieces of advice, joanne jenkins. thank you so much for joining us. >> thank you. jack: coming up, how to manage your retirement saving during a pandemic. it can be done. the panel will tackleeee
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♪ ♪ jack: in turbulent times, planning for and managing your retirement can be truckee, but we can help. -- tricky. one of the top women financial advisers in the country, mary deffert joins the round table. thanks so much, mary. this week the cover story is on annuities, there's one way to get income in retirement. how are you helping your clients get their income in retirement? >> that's a tough question these days. when 10-year treasuries yielding .26% right now and short-term treasuries less than 0 years are less, there are countries in europe that are paying negative interest rates.
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we're in a very tough rate environment. it doesn't mean you can't keep short maturities and tax-free subcorporate if you like -- [inaudible] and development bonds, there's also really dividends that are unlikely to be cut from high quality companies. you can kind of keep an eye out for those too. >> hey, mary, texas howe. let me ask you, i hear people say, well, there's good quality stuff that pays 1 or 2%. i need to buy this junkie stuff over here that pays 6%, and i always wonder why don't you just buy the good stuff with the lower yield and just sell e when you need the money. what about that strategy? >> yeah. i think people should hold the paper looking for the highest yield, but that's -- if you are so spot on, if you've been investing in the stock market over the years, why did you do
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that? if, for example, last year you were up 15%, what is wrong with taking out 4%? what's wrong with spending the growth? what are you waiting for? if you're in the stock market, you got there because you wanted to have growth that would protect you for some -- for tough times. these are the tough times. jack: mary, when you're selling those equities, do you sell mostly tech? and more broadly, how do you look at this big dispersian that ben and i were talking about earlier? do you just say, okay, the way of the future is technology? i've got to be heavily weighted there? or are you buying some of those unloved value issues? >> it is very tough. i mean, the single biggest risk factor i've seen is overconcentration. you can definitely have too much of a good thing. that doesn't mean that some of those tech stocks aren't still moving. i saw this stat that in 2019 of the s&p 500, six stocks
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represented 25% of the entire return. you know what? let's face i it, if you're an amazon person, your best friend just like mine is, i'm just happy to see them. so technology creates efficiency, creates effective ness. i strongly believe that that will be something that will not be -- what's happening with economic forces. however, they may be fully valued at this point. to me, i'm more concerned about the asset allocation and making sure that i've got balance so that when large values, for example, come back and say i'm positioned there. i will never make a big bet. we can't afford to do that. it's too important. jon: i know ben levisohn has a question for you. >> what are you telling your clients about the disconnect between the economy expect stock market in -- and the stock market? >> it's unbelievable, isn't it? i really wonder when you look at
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the unemployment numbers, the timeline is probably going to be stretched, the resurgence of the virus, an election coming up, i ask my clients, like, you know, when is the last time best case ever happened for you? this market is pricing as if this is a best case environment. a question i'll ask clients is, okay, you've told me about the vacations that you've canceled because that's a recurring theme. when will you be ready to take a great trip like that again? and inevitably after hemming and and hawing, people say a year from now. that's how long this recovery take. and we've got to be ready to be -- it happens to be a perfect time, i can't emphasize it enough. the market is relatively stable and relatively calm. that's surprising. but it's a great time to take advantage of that. it's not a time of panic.
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think about how much risk you can take. you're never going to beat the market, try to reflect on the risk that you're comfortable with in a time of sanity and make sure your portfolio reflects that. jack: and when those bad times do come, you'll be happy that you sold. thanks so much, mary. >> thank you. jack: up next, round table members give their investment ideas for the coming week, so stay right there. ta-da! did you know liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need? i should get a quote. do it. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪
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♪ ♪ jack: so, jack, in the few years before the pandemic, we heard a lot about something called modern monetary theory. serious guys like you and me said that was a lot of bologna. so what's going on right now? >> well, i'm not, it's not for me to say it's bologna, but i
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explain to people that if you're still debating whether or not we should do it, the debate is over. i'm pretty sure we're doing it right now. i spoke this past week with stephanie calvin, she's kind of emerged as the spokeswoman for this way of thinking. and, you know, basically she tells me things like deficits, we're hooking at potentially a $3.7 trillion deficit this year. that would be more than double the largest yearly deficit, and i think we maybe closer to $5 trillion by the time we're done with all this spending because we've got a dire economic emergency, people need help. i don't think it's going to stop after that. she says you don't need to be worried about deficits, the only constraint on spending is inflation, we have plenty the of room to spend. part of my column this week forget about the debate, you need to look at the implications as an investor. i don't think we're going to have inflation right now, i think we will have
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stock-flation, we're replacing an awful lot of that spending with government spending right now. that might continue to support the stock market. jack: well, and maybe why gold is going so high. two quick investment ideas, you first, ben. >> yeah. take a look at abbott labs. the stock went sideways the last three months. this week it reported earnings, earnings were great. looks like it broke out of the top of the range and could go a lot higher. jack: and carlton, something that might benefit from inflation. >> yeah, i'm looking at the spider home builders etf. you had the 30-year mortgage rate dipping below 3%, a lot of people that are thinking about buying a house now that urban centers aren't exactly the hot spot nymph going into that -- anymore. going into that gives you execs pose your with the home builders. jack: great ideas. jack, fascinating theory. thank you guys so much is. hooking forward to next week.
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to read more, check out this week's edition at barron's.com and don't forget to follow us on twitter. that is all for us. be healthy, wear your mask, and we'll see you next week >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: and happy weekend, everyone. welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was and helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. it is great to talk with you this weekend. coming up, white house economic adviser larry kudlow is here giving me his take on the recovery in the second half of the year and what could phase four stimulus plan look like. later on, my one-on-one with ed bastian on when we can expect travel to return in a big way. but first, let's look back at some of the the big stories of the week on "mornings with

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