century: how our president changed the course of history forever." get your copies at loudobbsshop.com, loudobbsshop.com as well as amazon.com barnesandnoble.com. again, thanks for being with us. see you >> from the fox studios in new york city, this is maria bartiromo's "wall street." maria: and happy weekend, everyone. welcome to the program that helps position you for the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo. coming up in just a few moments, the man behind match.com, angie's home service and video to name a few, iac chairman barry diller, my special guest this weekend with thoughts on the state of economy, technology, the struggling travel industry and more. barry diller coming up. but first, let's take a look back at some to have week's big moments with the week's top news

item makers on this week's edition of "the talkers." how do you feel about the issues that you are expecting tonight. >> listen, the reality is the president's been practicing every day for this. i mean, he's running the country. he's doing an amazing job of that. he's getting peace deals done in the middle east, pulling us out of endless wars or, combating coronavirus. maria: how come nancy pelosi won't allow democrats to be part of this task force? >> they don't want to focus on where the virus came from, that's china. we want things to be made in america. maria: ratcliffe outlines that hillary clinton approved a plan to link then-candidate donald trump to putin. >> it's something that we've known all along, that this designed for some type of october dirty trick, some type of october surprise. it had all the markings of some type of disinformation operation. maria: who do you think the mastermind of this was?

was it hillary clinton or somebody else? >> from what i've seen, john brennan was right at the middle of all of this. john brennan running the intelligence agency seems to be pulling an awful lot of the strings. maria: now turning to markets and the economy, a new month and a new quarter for the markets. the s&p 500 logging its best six month performance since 2009. but september is typically the worst month for stocks, and it was a bruiser once again for the major averages. major averages down in the month of september, and the nasdaq, of course, taking the biggest hit, down 5%. look at the third quarter, however, even with that rough september, the third quarter was strong. the third quarter showing a gain of 7.66% for the dow, s&p up 8.5% and the nasdaq higher by 11%. what will the fourth quarter bring? all of this, of course, on the heels of the news that we got beginning with the fourth quarter, that president trump

and the first lady, melania trump, have tested positive for the coronavirus. how does that change the agenda. joining me now to talk about the road ahead is cornerstone macro's cofounder nancy lazar and ed yardeni. thanks for joining us, both. we so appreciate your time. we want to look ahead to the fourth quarter and 2021. you both are the best on wall street in terms of the macro environment, and i appreciate your time this weekend. so, first, let me get your thoughts, nancy, on this news that we got this week, and that is that the president and the first lady are doing well, but they are quarantined and, hopefully, beginning a recovery. they have coronavirus. does this change the i agenda for the economy, in your view? >> well, short term it certainly could hit consumer and business confidence. but the economy has such a strong backstop into this, and you certainly see that in the

recovery we've had so far, that if we can get news sooner than later, it should just be a minor, short-term impact. but, again, we're still very early in understanding what exactly is going on. maria: ed yardeni, we did see reaction in the markets as soon as the news hit as investors were looking at the unknown and selling first, thinking later. do you think this news impacts the markets or the agenda? >> i think on a very short-term basis, it might, but it's hard to speculate on the condition of the president. the news seems to be that he's all right. i completely agree with nancy. this isn't all about washington. i mean, you've got to say this has been a crazy year with. i hope when it's over that 2021 will be a little bit saner. maria: nancy, let's go through your expectations for the fourth quarter and for the year ahead first. you've been focused a lot on housing, on capital expenditures, and you say that

there's a real onshoring renaissance going on. you're calling it a manufacturing renaissance going on. your report, you say you have 176 companies already that have either decided to or have moved back to the united states, and you say this is your favorite emerging market, middle america. tell us about it. >> yeah. this actually started a while ago, back in 2010 when china was no longer really an attractive place to do business. and then, to be sure, when you had the corporate tax cuts and less regulation in 2017 under president trump, that further fueled the attractiveness of you sell it here, you make it here. and there's a lot of data that supports it. you have seen a shift up in capital spending. it's been subtle, but that's okay, it has been stronger than it was the prior decade. and you've seen that really heal the labor market. capital spending is the ugly duckling of the economic data, and the beauty it creates is totally, totally underappreciated. it obviously improves corporate

productivity, improve9 corporate profitability and allows businesses to be able to hire and, therefore, it's very positive also for consumer spending. and actually over the past month there have been two blockbuster reports of that have gotten virtually no press. one, that the poverty rate in 2019 dropped to 10.5%, the lowest on record, and then earlier this week the new york federal reserve publishes a report on consumer finances only every three years. it's not a very timely report, but it also showed in 2019 you really had a healing in consumer real median family income, particularly at the lower end. so as ed said, this is a crazy year, a lot of political and economic uncertainty, but impressively we've been able to bounce back. and i think's because, one, we had a very quick response by policy makers; two, the economy was healthy going into this mess; and, three, that stimulus

that the fed and fiscal policy has put in has really fueled the drivers of growth. maria: ed yardeni, your thoughts on that. what will drive this economy from your standpoint? you were bullish, and then you were looking at valuations that worried you, but you're still bullish on the economy and the markets, right? >> right, right. well, i'm kind of hoping that the market stabilizes here, just kind of moves sideways for a while to allow the economy to catch up, to allow earnings to catch up. the economy is doing a great job of catching up. but we had a unprecedented two month lockdown recession in march and april, and because march is the end of the first quarter, that knocked real gdp growth by 5% in the first quarter, and then in the second quarter, because everything got shut down in april, that knocked down the second quarter by over 30%. now looking into the third

quarter our estimate is real gdp could rebound by 30% and then 5% in the fourth quarter. maria: i want to take a short break. when we come back, your thoughts on how to make money on all of this. do i want to continue allocating capital for stocks? we are talking with nancy lazar so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together.

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♪ ♪ maria: welcome back. it was the final jobs report before the election, now about 30 days before the election. the u.s. economy add added 661,000 jobs in the month of september. that was below the expectations which called for 850,000, but the unemployment rate was actually better than expected. it fell below 8%, beating estimates. now we are at an unemployment rate of 7.9%. our special guests this weekend, nancy lazar and yardeni research president, ed yardeni. what was your thoughts on the jobs numbers?

i know, nancy, you wanted to see a little more, but we also had august and july revised upward. did this throw a wrench in any expectations for growth in jobs from your standpoint that it was only 660,000? >> not really. there was a problem with the education component which was very weak at the state and local level, and that was in part related to some schools starting later. put differently, you're going to see a rebound in that number in october. in addition, the private number was very strong, up 877,000. when you incorporate those revisions that you mentioned, you get roughly what we were expecting for the month of september, about a million, about a million. now, that said, these big numbers aren't going to continue now that growth, as we're saying this third quarter, we have gdp growth at about 27, 30%. in the fourth quarter, things are going to somewhat down to a somewhat more normal, but 5 is

still pretty strong. you will see employment gains as you're growing out of this hole. the outlook, the most important number, i think, in this report today was the employment index which measures the percentage of retiring, and it was 70% for the second month in a row. most people aren't going to appreciate that number. but going into the last recession, that number was down toward 50, hoveredded around 50 early on in the first, last expansion, and it was difficult for people to get a job. maria: ed, do you agree with that in terms of your thoughts on the jobs numbers we saw on friday? and, you know, it's true, you look at the sectors, you're seeing a lot of hiring. retail did very well, goods-producing sectors did well in terms of hiring. >> yeah. when you just focus on the data and not on all the discussions about how terrible things are, the data is just, continues to

point to a v-shaped recovery across the board including these payroll employment numbers. you know, it wasn't too long ago that employers recalled how hard it was to find workers. and i think, you know, if you're in business, you have to be an optimist. you have to believe that you're going to get through these tough times, you're going to survive them, and if you are, you're going to need employees. so i think we're already starting to see that following the two month lockdown recession, employers are rehiring, there are job openings, and i think we're finding that the economy's doing extremely well, as i said. and anything that's housing-related, yeah, i think we're going to see a vaccine, and things will be back to some normal, i think within the next 6-12 months. not the next 12-24 months. maria: ed e, how do i make money on this? tell our audience what you're telling clients in terms of translating this good economic

backdrop into opportunities to invest. >> right. well, a lot of, a lot of stocks have been picked over, the ones that have survived in that actually flourished. a lot of them are internet-related. you know, a lot of us are working from home, getting educated from home and also getting our entertainment from home. so all the companies that have benefited from that have had had had a tremendous rally. what's been behind is the pandemic-challenged industries, the ones where social distancing is reducing the capacity of the crowds that they can have on airplanes or in restaurants, stores. but 6-12 months from now i think most of this will be behind us. maria: nancy lazar, before we go, your ideas in terms of investment. i recognize you're looking at the macro story, but what can you tell us about allocating capital in the face of this

backdrop prediction that you have? >> so we think there are four main drivers of the economy and, quite frankly, this was our strategy team's outlook also. first and foremost, manufacturing, as you highlighting. manufacturing companies are concentrated in the united states, not necessarily so much outside to the united states. second, technology we do think is a growing part of the economy. the breadth of technology is used increasingly in other parts of economic activity including manufacturing which we think that space continues to grow, grows jobs and does well in the market. third, as ed said, we like -- we continue to like housing. we think it is a secular shift up supported by near record low mortgage rates along with a millennial shift, finally moving out of their parents' home and buying houses. so i think the third quarter profit backdrop, by the way, is also going to surprise. i think just as you've seen a v rebound in economic data, you're going to see a v rebound in the third quarter profit data in the next week or so.

maria: all right. we'll be getting third quarter earnings in about a week and a half. nancy lazar, ed yardeni, thank you so much for being my special guests. we will keep watching the developments. don't go any i can't believe it. what? that our new house is haunted by casper the friendly ghost? hey jill! hey kurt! movies? i'll get snacks! no, i can't believe how easy it was to save hundreds of dollars on our car insurance with geico. i got snacks! ohhh, i got popcorn, i got caramel corn, i got kettle corn. am i chewing too loud? believe it! geico could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance.

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♪ ♪ maria: welcome back. uncertainty, new york city in crisis following a summer that saw the big apple shut down due to the covid-19 disaster and violence sparked by the george floyd protests. iac chairman barry diller told me he or thinks it's -- he thinks it's almost impossible for business to survive in new york. i spoke with him about his businesses and how they're performing during the crisis. take a look. >> well, we're a tale of two cities. on one side, we do have home services with angie and with

dating with match and with video. obviously, right now everything is great. subscriptions are up. why? obvious, people are home, they want to fix things, they call angie home adviser to get things done. dating, you can't -- well, you can, and people are, of course see each other and dating with each other. but communicating through the match products is necessary right now. same is true for video. so i'm not -- but the bad side of two cities is, of course, travel and expedia. you know, for the last i'd say about, you know, we were down, of course, about 95% when this began, when the real lockdown was in mace in the u.s. now -- in place in the u.s. now we're holding and we've been

holding at the last 10 weeks at -62%. it isn't good, it's just relatively good, better than it was and, actually, we just had our first cash-positive month. so if that holds, it's not profitable for us, we lose money at that, but that -- it looks like sales in the last 10 weeks looks like it's kind of a rock. i don't think anything substantially changes until probably after the first to have year until you get airlines traveling again and you get these restrictions lifted. so that's, that's this unsteady world i live in. maria: let's stay on travel for a second. seeing this, you know, travel lockdown, when are you expecting things to loosen up? i thought it was interesting last quarter you announced that you took a stake in mgm resorts

even in the face of all of this upset in terms of services like casinos and real estate and, you know, going out, restaurants. you're here taking a 12% stake in mgm. what was behind that? >> i have to believe -- maria: was this valuation, barry? >> no, no. look, i have to believe that just like we did when 9/11 happened, which was just the moment we bought exe media, travel stopped completely, and -- expedia, and somebody in the room when we were thinking whether we would stay in that transaction or exercise an out clause, somebody said if there's life, there's travel. and i heard it, but i said, yeah, true. we closed mgm. until there is clarity of some kind, probably is not going to come until we have a vaccine certain or we get through this flu season or this winter season and it's not a catastrophe, i don't expect -- i think after the first of the year i really

thought it was going to be labor day, but that was not to be. maria: barry, i want to ask you about new york city. iac heatedquartered there -- headquartered there. you've done something great for our city by building little island, this $250 floating park on the hudson river. what have you seen in new york, barry? what's your take on recovering post-pandemic and this, you know, protesting and looting that we saw earlier this year in new york city? did that aaffect the park? >> no. actually, it hasn't affected our building. we're almost finished. we'll finish probably by january. i mean, all the construction and whatever. and open when the world, hopefully, the weather and the city pause in the late spring, early summer. may/june. new york is a weird place to be around. i mean, we opened our offices actually labor day.

we sent out our, in one facility, our main headquarters which is about 750 people, we said please come if you can. we're not ordering you, so to speak, to come. and truthfully, no one comes. very, very few. it's about maybe 10%, 5% of our people are coming back. if you give people the choice, generally they're going to say, no, i'm getting full pay, i'm working at home and doing whatever i want, what could be better. so i -- that's true for all offices in new york. and new york's not going to get back again until we get clear signals that you can go about without taking these extreme precautions. maria: my thanks to barry diller, chairman of iac.

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maria: that'll do it for this week. thank you so much for being here. don't forget to tune in every friday night, fox business, 9 p.m. eastern for another edition of "wall street." and then this weekend, join me on fox news for "sunday morning futures" 10 a.m. eastern live on the fox news channel. arkansas senator tom cotton, former ambassador to germany and acting dni ric grenell and california congressman devin nuñes my special guests live 10

a.m. on sunday on fox news. start smart every weekday on fox business, weekdays 6-9 eastern for "mornings with maria." i hope you'll set the tone with us every morning every week. that'll do it for this weekend. thank you so much for joining me. have a great rest of the weekend, everybody, and i'll see you again next time. ♪ ♪ gerry: welcome to the wall to "l street journal at large". just in case you were thinking that this strange year couldn't possibly hold any more shocks, very early on friday morning we learned that president trump and first lady melania have tested positive for covid-19. the president's enforced quarantine throws yet more uncertainty into an already highly-uncertain election campaign. the candidates' second presidential debate following this week's brawl in cleveland