so you might well ask, what was the real threat to democracy. that is it for us this week, the later show, follow me on twitter, facebook, and instagram and i will be back with more in-depth interviews with the wall street journ prey thank you for joining us. ♪ >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by invesco qq. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i'm jack otter, covid-19 vaccine is on track for fda approval, how will it be a distributed and when available. richard joins us in later, what the vaccine news means for your investments and whether it's time to adjust her portfolio but we begin as always with what we think are the three most important things investors ought to be figured out right now.

stocks soared on positive noon about pfizer's covid-19 vaccine but a spike in cases raise news concern, is it time to invest for a post-pandemic economy. target, walmart and macy's will release earnings next week, what can investors clean ahead of the holiday shopping season, customers are using credit cards and contactless pay in stores and online, great for visa, will covid lead to the end of cash on the "barron's roundtable", then, karl and jack, ben, interestingly, we rallied hard on the pfizer vaccine news and the market pulled back and on friday it was a real good day, but one interesting thing, this is the first time since 2000, the.com bust that we saw the dow up 4% even while the nasdaq was down on the week, can you explain that. >> this was a massive shift in the value stocks this week, we mean the market cheapest and throwing in the reopening plays

into there. investors have been buying growth stocks like crazy, the ones that they've seen the sales growth despite the virus or maybe even because of it. they pulled forward so much growth, it's going to get hard to grow at the same pace in the years ahead it might be impossible for many of them. on the other hand you have all these committees that are been hit hard by the economic slowdown and by not having any business because of the virus that are going to get a reopened economy at some point because of the vaccine and they will have a really low overturns of earnings. i think the value out of growth has begun this week. jack: we have been waiting for that for ten years. you talk about comps, that's going to be incredible come 2021, zoom has 350% revenue growth, how can they possibly match that were some of the other companies it is been really low. tell me about the short-term, we

know when the vaccine comes everything will see a reopening play but what about next week, next month. >> i think there will be a lot of volatility in the short term and a lot of back-and-forth between value and growth. we still don't have a vaccine, we don't have the virus under control and the vaccine is not coming for a while and we will see the cases right, the hospitalizations and the deaths and that will shake up the market. there will be opportunities to buy the value stocks on the pullbacks, shift out of growth a little bit and you can do that in pieces, you don't have to do the all at once in the weeks ahead. >> real quick the barron's cover story is on small-cap stocks, why does this rotation look good for them? >> small caps has the worst of everything, they are small and they lean towards value, the winners have been big and growth so they just had an amazing week in the russell 2000 index has been doing well, 14% since october 1, we like the worldwide

holdings, they make first aid kits, scissors and knives. jack: thanks for that, one potentially value sector, a sector that has been beaten down by the pandemic is the retail sector, what are you looking out with those earnings coming out. >> there is definitely two notable exceptions and that would be target, walmart they were able to stay open throughout the pandemic and they looked very strong throughout, people were rushing to outfit their home, we expect them to continue to do well as we see cases rise and people will continue to stay at home but on the other side of the pandemic their position to do well with the initiatives that they have, target most recently announcing a program with ulta beauty and walmart+ the amazon prime rival. with those to those of the two that we will be looking at to show some good numbers. jack: certainly anybody trying to compete against amazon has a tough go but i guess the

brick-and-mortar stores, occasionally people want to go to them, when they do go they are paying less and less with cash and more and more with plastic, you think visa is a big beneficiary? >> who is still using cash this year, if i'm going to give you cash you are going to take and make change in give that back and i'm going to take that from you, we might as well shake hands and sneeze on each other after that transaction, that's how i feel about it and i'm not alone because credit card usage for in-store transaction is up 82%, that is not more than three percentage points from the beginning of the year and there is a lot of room for growth that had a chance to speak without kelli, the ceo of visa, let's listen to a clip from that conversation. >> 65% of the faith-based transactions in the world today are paid, the country that is for this behind interesting enough is the united states is

probably about 6% of the u.s. volume but i think it will grow by a lot over the next two or three years. >> it is worth that, i don't want to hand you my card versus wiping, i don't want to swipe a rhyming number, i want to tap, go back to the car for some purell, that's all i want in markets we have to pay credit card usage has increased with the percentage of transaction there is a long runway for growth and visa, you can you're more that conversation from my podcast, the stock is over 30 times earnings but it's always expensive it is returned more than 1000% for shareholders over the past decade. jack: visors covid-19 vaccine is on track

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jack: visors covid-19 vaccine is pending fda approval, two-part dozes under doses is another complicated process, the distribution system is in placen we get it and what we need to do in the meantime, joining the ceo of robert wood johnson foundation and former acting director of the cdc doctor richard besser. thank you for coming on the show, before we get to the vaccine i want to get one thing out of the way you said often that putting health against the economy is a false eye caught me, can your claim that. >> when you think about when it takes to get the economy up in a sustained fashion, you will get that with the pandemic under control. the roadmap to sustain economic

recovery is following the guidance of public health in getting this under control so we can get people back to work. jack: sometimes they align really nicely like when pfizer announced good results in its trials the market rallied, what was your reaction to pfizer's announcement, i would have is a cautious optimism. optimism because at no expectation that results would come in with the protection level of 90% or higher, that is incredible and the protection you get from a measles vaccine, one of the best that we have. caution because this is company reported information and has not been validated by independent scientists and it's a first look, what they look at here, how much protection does it give you one week after second dose of vaccine, you will go ahead and follow patient and see what is the protection 20 days after having received her second dose as well as following for safety

at two months and looking to see doesn't prevent serious infection as overall infection, all the data points are critically important. jack: assuming that all works out, asking how you get this done, you ran emergency preparedness for the cdc, how do you get to doses of the vaccine out to tens of millions of americans and keep the added negative 94 degrees fahrenheit. >> this will be a challenge unlike any we face as a nation. while i think we are going to be able to pull this off of the u.s., globally when you think about countries that are low-income with a much far greater rural population and transportation it will be very challenging. at the cdc are emergency operations center was led by former army colonels, for reason their incredible expertise in logistics so it's been known for a long time that this vaccine

and the vaccine from a moderna required these cold temperatures, there is planning along those lines but it's critically important that this vaccine get to everyone in america, not just those who happened to live in cities or areas where distribution can be easiest. jack: it seems like a confident guy, it seems to be in good hands, you mentioned getting it out to people, i haven't heard anything about can we give the pfizer vaccine to children, has been tested on children? >> i am a general pediatrician and one thing that you will see with vaccines as they will be tested in adults first and then in children, pfizer has tested the vaccine in children as young as 12 but when it's first licensed the vaccine will just be for adults. even if there is fairly widespread distribution children will not be vaccinated early on and will need to wash our hands, wear masks in social distance until the trials have been done to show the vaccine is also safe and effective in kids.

jack: speaking to that, unfortunately in the best case scenario the general public will not get this thing until mid-2021, in the meantime the new administration can do to keep us safe until we get a vaccine? >> the new administration will not come in for another 70 days or so, i am really worried about that time. , as you look at the trend across the nation, cases are on the rise, hospitalizations on the rise, deaths on the rise and we need to come together, cdc released an analysis of the latest science and it shows wearing a mask, not only protects others from you if you happen to be infected and not know it, it could reduce your own chances of getting infected by up to 70%, that kinda passed by without a lot of fanfare but that's huge information, not only that there's a study that they found if we can increase general use of mask by 15%, that

could save $1 trillion in lost economic activity that we would have to see by increasing the shutdowns across the country. from a health standpoint an economic standpoint if the current administration can rally people to wear masks we can save lives and we can save jobs and stimulate the economy. >> it has become a political test which is really unfortunate, we gotta change that. thank you so much for talking to us. >> it's a real pleasure. jack: now that the covid-19 vaccine will become a reality, vaccine will become a reality, what you work hard for your money. vaccine will become a reality, what stretched days for it. juggled life for it. took charge for it.

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jack: as we inch closer to covid-19 vaccine what areas of the economy will be affected the most and what should investors watch, chief economist torsten slok joins the roundtable, it is great to see you again. we have a push me, pull me situation in the market the great vaccine news as the light at the end of the tunnel but at the meantime we see a record number of covid cases, the spike in deaths, maybe a spike in hospitalization is the most ominous thing is we had into winter, how will this play out in the market? >> it's a good question, in the near-term we have some issues from an economic point of view with a resurgence of the virus, there is a risk this might have an impact on people, might have an impact on corporate with their x-uppercase-letter spending, that being said the vaccine is good news and in this quarter and going into the rest of this year we should expect to

see more bumpy economic data but as we can into 2021 and the vaccine begins to become long widespread available we do think we should expect to see more of growth. jack: you sent out interesting charts and tables this week, one showed the bounce back from unemployment which was dramatic 10 million jobs have returned but another 10 million to go in something from the st. louis fed that shows the physical proximity of the worker to its colleagues or clients has a big effect on whether or not those businesses are actually running which makes sense but it also shows when the vaccine comes could we have a nice new surge into the economy. >> absolutely, as you pointed out during the pandemic from february - april we lost 22 million jobs and we've only re-created or regained half of those, that was the lowest paying fruit and now those sectors that are not rebounded

completely, those hardest hit by the virus, if we do get a vaccine that is working in the 90% number in terms of efficiency, it is certainly very promising then there is a significant chance that those sectors hardest hit by covid could also see a very significant refund of employment as we go through next year. >> a quick question i want to ask you about government policy, covid in the vaccine seems to have washed out any talk of the possibility of a corporate tax hike under biden. is that on your radar screen. jack: we did discuss for sometime in the fall to what extent we would get a fiscal package or not, the vaccine news is overwhelming if you think about the vaccine on its own could potentially have significant re-creating the 10 million jobs that we are behind, that on its own would have a substantial impact that anything that might come on the political front in particular in

the near-term the upside risks if the vaccine is working could be important. that's why in the short term there is a risk we might have a little bit worse or sideways move in the economic data over the next several months but into next year end the second half of next year we should begin to see a more significant and substantial increase in employment and gdd and earnings. jack: i know we have a question for you. >> we sin the federal reserve take unprecedented measures, do you worry they may have pinned themselves in a corner with low rates. >> a very important, very good question, very important aspect of what they did, they didn't only lower interest rates, they also had very aggressive programs supporting credit markets, that has been very helpful for narrowing credit spreads, and on fallen angels which investment grade companies that become high-yield, that support continues to be very substantial in markets, one thing that is very critical

moving into the next several months is to what degree that support has distortion and to what degree and particular that support might be going away if the economy does begin to improve meaningfully, it is been very helpful and for companies and smaller companies we have had the challenge that they do not have access to corporate and smaller companies remember and in companies that have less than 500 employees and half of the economy small and medium-sized enterprises and struggling quite a bit. jack: then. >> wiki. about stimulus, how important is and how are we going to get it? >> jay powell at his press conference at the meeting said including this week at the central meeting in europe, we do need more consumers and the reason why he is saying that because it is still 6.9 today,

remember in february, the unemployment rate was three and a half so we are still quite a distance away and that is part of the logic were calling for more stimulus. of course the conversation at the moment will it come will not come, will they come this year, and common smaller size, bigger size or maybe perhaps have to wait until next year, that all remains to be seen but one thing that is very important, good question, the vaccine news has the potential to be so much more substantial of re-creating of the lost jobs for them and investor perspective, it is one of the most important piece of news that we should be watching very carefully in terms of how this plays out. jack: torsten slok i really appreciate your insight, things to have you ♪ limu emu and doug. and if we win, we get to tell you how liberty mutual customizes car insurance so you only pay for what you need. isn't that what you just did? service! ♪ stand back, i'm gonna show ya ♪

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jack: 70 years ago then graham wrote about making decisions on fear and greed, you are going to update that approach. >> some people don't love it, the new approach is health versus stupidity, those of the forces in the whole part is a vaccine, i think we have good visibility that life in the u.s. could look pretty normal by thanksgiving 2021. the stupidity part, virus cases are absolutely raging across america right now and we are so sick with culture wars in conspiracy theory that we are not following simple instruction but keep a bi distant, where a mask, i don't want to be grim but the trim looks like we will die by tens of thousands is winner and we could see the economy slowed greatly by

february, if you're an investor, bank of america, goldman, firms are saying use a barbell approach, you want stocks that can benefit quickly when we reopen in a company like delta and unique companies that are more virus resistant that can protect your portfolio if stocks tank as virus cases climb, think of amazon. jack: i want to get investment ideas. >> we are taking a look at until it's a rarity of a tech stock that trades cheaply, it traded on the apple news, investors are hoping in january it will announce a new hybrid any fracturing process, my colleague had the feature that it looks more catalyst for intel. jack: intel inside barons. what is your idea? >> it jumped 16% on the vaccine news on monday but finished the week on 3.2 percent because of fears about spreading covid

cases. when we do get it there will be a point when covid is the thing in the past and the stock will fly. >> it's a good week to go to the gym. great ideas. give very much, check out this week's edition of barron's.com an "after the bell," and we will see you back on monday. have a great weekend, everybody. ♪ ♪ lou: good evening, everybody. these are, at a minimum, perilous days for all of us. we were a nation divided before this election just ten days ago. we are more so this evening. we're in the midst of a battle for the white house, but it is even more than that, it is a battle that began more than four years ago with the efforts of the chiefs of the obama intelligence services trying to block the presidential candidacy of donald trump. four years ago while implementing a plot sponsored by his democrat rival, those same agencies relentlessly spied