the enemies of freedom could want anything else. for the latest show updates, be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook and instagram, and i'll be back next week right here on "the wall street journal at large." thanks for joining us. ♪ ♪ jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. i'm jack otter. coming up, abby joseph cohen gives us her take on what to expect for the markets in 202 is, and later pharmaceuticals in the spotlight as americans line up for covid-19 vaccine. what's next for the biotech industry. but we begin as always with what we think are the three most important things investors ought to be thinking about right now. the stock market took a pause this week as most indexes edged

lower, but small stock continue to rise x. space stocks also shot higher this week after arc investment management filed a plan to launch a space exploration etf. even though mortgage rates are poised to move higher, they're remaining near historic lows. why you should act now. on the round table, ben levisohn, carlton english and jack howe. ben, last week you told us it was time for the s&p 500 to take a pause, and sure enough, on cue, down 1.5 president for the week -- 1.5 percent for the week. why do i listen to ben? >> i wish i had that kind of power, jack. it was a bunch of things that happened. we had impeachment still going on, the covid rollout for the vaccines is still not going great, and by the end of the week we had some really terrible jobless claims numbers. awful retail sales, a big drop there. and, that or i think, just gave investors pause, especially those who had been hoping for an economic rebound. i think the good news is those

could really be attributed both to the resurgence in covid and also the kind of the gap in stimulus coming from the government and relief coming from the government. but now with new stimulus checks, new jobless benefits, that's going to help retail sales. jack: yeah, i hope so. that number was ugly on its own, and when you stripped out autos and gas, it was down over 2% which was shocking for the holiday season. the bright spot was small cap stocks up on the week. why are investors crying the small cap -- eyeing the small cap sector? >> i think that's the place where you're still seeing optimism about the economy and the future. when you do have inflation expectations up the way they are, that helps small cap stocks. and they're also home to a lot of those speculative stocks that people want to buy, so that helps. but even small caps got hit on friday. they lost 1.5% which halved the week's gains from 3% to 1.5%.

jack: speaking of small and speculative, carlton, space stocks took off. that's a pretty narrow sector, but there was good news. what was that? >> yeah. so you may remember way back in 2020 a lot of these arc investment etfs that focus on innovation, next-gen internet, fen-tech, autonomous technology, a lot of these etfs more than doubled. well, earlier this week arc announced that it plans to launch a space-focused etf, plans to launch one. that was enough to get space stocks soaring. so companies like virgin galactic, even some of these special purpose acquisition companies that have yet to complete a merger but are intending to do so in the space area, they saw gains this week. jack: yeah. i would e warn investors these little et the fs, they've got to be careful. they think they're diversified, but they're really not. they're just buying a few. at least lock are heed and grim

grumman, some of those are okay. rates backing up, jack, means that mortgage rates follow. that said, the housing market stills rooks strong -- looks strong. what's your take on that? >> well, the last read on house prices that they're rising at the fastest pace in six years, and we don't know why, right? people are crammed into their houses, they're running zoom schools from their kitchen table, or you're stepping on legos trying to do business meetings. they want more space, everyone. but as you say, mortgage rates did just jump. that's something that we haven't seen in a while. they're still exceptionally low. i said on this show that if you're in the market for a house, be careful not to pay too much of a pandemic premium. real estate is very local are. you might have good deals where you live, and if you're thinking about buying a house, especially if you're going to finance a lot of it, you might want to lock in a mortgage while you can still get a 30-year loan well below

3%. if bond yields pick up, those yields could rise. if you're thinking about investing in home builders, they've been knocked down as mortgage rates have come up. our pal andrew berry in this week's barron's magazine writes about toll brothers. he says the shares look attractive. the ceo of toll brothers told andrew conditions in his business are the best he's seen in 30 years at the company. jack: that chart of mortgage rates is really incredible. if you go back 20, 30, 40 years, it feels the -- tells the same story. but it's a balancing act, right? you pay more for the house, but you pay less for your mortgage. do you just make a personal decision rather than a financial one on that is? >> unless you happen to have good deals where you live. it's not just the national numbers, it's your region, it's your street. so you might find a good deal where you can take advantage of these low rates and, certainly, if you're someone who can reduce your rate by refinancing, you

should. you probably already did it, but if you haven't done it yet, hurry up. jack: don't wait any longer. and one other nice thing about owning real property is that it's a bit of an inflation hedge. >> it's a great point. if you look at, like, inflation-protected treasuries, i the you get such a lousy deal. you've got negative yields. you have to pay them to hold those bonds. and if you talking about gold or bitcoin, the prices are volatile. if you're buying a big house, it's a great inflation hedge if you're financing it and as a bonus, you get to live in it. jack: that is a great point. thanks, ben, jack, carlton. coming up, a renowned investment coming up, a renowned investment strategist joins

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♪ ♪ jack: every january barron's convenes a group of expert investors to discuss their forecast for the economy and the market. veteran goldman sachs investment strategist abby joseph cohen's been a member of the group for 21 is years, and she joins us now. great to see you, abby. you told our editors this week that goldman sachs sees u.s. stocks continuing their climb higher with the s&p 500 hitting 4100 by the end of the year. the valuations are awfully high. won't that hold back returns in the coming year, and are you recommending maybe investors look to overweight cheaper shares? >> jack, that's a very significant number of important questions. [laughter] first of all, the u.s. portfolio strategy team which does the forecast for the s&p 500 thinks that the s&p could, in fact, be higher than 4100. in the second half of this year depending upon the outlook for

2022. but the beginning of this year is certainly very rocky. what we're seeing right now are disappointments with regard to retail sales, employment and, of course, the disease numbers are simply staggering. however, at these valuation levels the u.s. equity market seems to be pricing in a very pleasant scenario, one in which low inflation and low interest rates stay in the course and one in which profits continue to recover in the quarters ahead. jack: so clearly, investors sometimes put too much significance to what happens in washington. but with the new administration coming in, or i've got to ask you how do you see biden's tax and spending policy and also foreign policy affecting the markets? >> in recent weeks clearly the stock market has moved notably higher except since the riot last wednesday. and we attribute it to two things. number one, the expectation that

federal reserve policy will stay friendly and that financial conditions will remain easy. basically, interest rates will stay low and capital will remain available. and in addition, there has been a positive reaction to the idea that mr. biden is moving into the white house. there is a perception, for example, which we believe to be correct that there will be additional if fiscal -- i don't even want to call it stimulus, let's call it a relief package -- to help the nation get through this very difficult new chapter of the disease. and then we have not yet seen what the biden people will be proposing with regard to some of these other elements. but by and large, the perception is that the biden administration will be pro-growth, and that's something that equity investors tend to like. jack: and real quick, trade policy will obviously be a little bit different. do you see that as a positive or negative? >> it's viewed as a positive.

the perception on the part of many investors, including those outside the united states, is that the trump trade policies have not been helpful to the united states. in fact, they have been more helpful to some other nations than to us. and we don't yet know what mr. biden will be proposing, but the idea that we'll be moving back into trade pacts, that we'll be moving back into some of the multilateral organizations that have been so important for u.s. economic growth over the last several decades, that is typically viewed as a positive by most invest e. jack: and so given that backdrop, what areas of the market look attractive right no? >> what we have seen in recent weeks has been a move toward more cyclically-sensitive stocks. clearly in 2020 the best performing stocks have been the i.t. names and also a few health care stocks, but just about five or six stocks accounted for about 50% of the gains in the s&p 500.

so as 2020 came to an end, many investors began to look at some of the previously underperforming sectors including those that are viewed as cyclical. but, of course, when that performance persists will depend upon how the economy continues to do. our global analysts believe that this will be a trend in 2021 in most markets around the world, but the first half of this year we think will be highly volatile. again, because the disease numbers are rising right now and because so many nations, including parts of ours, are going back into various forms of lockdown. not a great outlook short term for many of these cyclical companies. jack: abby joseph cohen, thank you so much. appreciate it. >> of course. jack: coming up, the covid-19 vaccine rollout has gotten off to a slow start. but first, this year barron's

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♪ ♪ jack: so far americans have been disappointed in the slow rollout of the covid-19 vaccinations, but there are bright spots on the horizon. josh nathan joins the panel. josh, thanks for coming on the possible. so this was an incredible scientific achievement, rolling out a vaccine as quickly as pfizer and these other companies did. but we've had trouble getting those vaccines into people's arms. >> that's right, yeah. you know, about 10 million people have gotten their first dose so far out of 30 million doses available. and that's really way behind where the government said it would be right now. i think what we're learning is there's been a real underinvestment in that last mile which is a common problem in mix health.

and -- public health. and the other thing that's important to keep in mind is that the same public health authorities that have been dealing with this pandemic 24 hours a day for the last year, they're the ones tasked with actually getting the shots in the arms. and these are either underfunded departments, they've been exhausted or wiped out by this year of real intense work for them. so you can understand why they might be having some trouble. jack: yeah, indeed. it's wonderful the way people cheered them on the way to work. we've got to remember to keep on doing that. now give us some reasons for optimism. things will get better you think, right? >> yeah, look, we should keep in mind, people are getting vaccines. i know a number of 90-year-olds in my life who got their first shot this week. the oh thing going on right -- the other thing going on is that the president-elect, joe biden, has been making announcements over the past few days about how he plans to accelerate the inoculation process. they're going to commit $20 billion to this, they're going

to is set up federal vaccination sites around the country, they're going to use national guard and fema resources. so it won't be immediate, but it's a start. the other really important milestone coming up is that johnson and johnson has said for the next two days really to announce results of their phase three study of their covid vaccine. if it's even almost as effective e, it would be a huge achievement and advance. as much as the vaccine you can get a single dose of as posed to the current advantage see seens which are two-dose. and also it doesn't have such strict storage requirements. so easier to administer, more people are going to get it, and that would be a real step forward. >> hey, josh, it's jack howe. we want to see all these high priority folks get their vaccine. the state of new york says that the process will open to the general population, meaning me, by summer which i take to mean

june. are you seeing anything about these, you know, new vaccine efforts or anything about the administration change that leads you to believe that that process might get sped up? i'm not going to ask you for an exact date but, josh, what's the exact date that i'll be able to get a vaccine in this arm right here? or maybe this arm. even this rear en, josh. i don't care where they put it, when can i get my shot? [laughter] >> well, look, there have been expansions many who can get shots over the past few days. they've opened it up in most states to people age 65 and up and people with certain conditions that make them more vulnerable. but the problem for you that, you know, there are now about 150 million people around the country who are eligible for vaccination give or take 10 million. and at the rate we're going, i mean, the biden administration is only targeting to get 100 million shots out by, people vaccinated, rather, by the end

of april. so even, you know, well into the spring we're still not going to be through the groups that are currently eligible. so a lot could change, people could change the way they think about prioritizing. you got to think it's not going to be before deep into the spring at the very earliest where folks under 65 are going to be able to go out and get their shots. jack: jack, just be thankful you're a young and healthy guy. josh, this is the week of the jpmorgan health care conference which is a big thing every year, but this year it took on added cig enough cabs. >> yeah, look, you know, this is a huge event on the calendar every year for health care reporters and health care investors. most years a lot of the conversation is about high drug prices, you know, a really controversial topic. this year drug prices are still climbing, that hasn't stopped, but the success of the vaccine development program has shifted the conversation and has given the industry, i think, some reputational breathing room. and there have been some really

interesting announcements the past few days for companies like eli lilly, regeneron and others. >> yeah, regeneron's had a tough time lately. what do you make of the stock right here? >> regeneron cut a big deal with the federal government. the federal government has committed to buying up this to 2.5 billion doses of their antibody therapy. this is the drug that president trump got when he was sick. this is a drug that seems to have an important role not getting a lot of usage. i think we can tell from the deal that the government is counting on a lot of people needing it, a lot of people still getting sick. thinking about the stock, regeneron's been driven down over the past few months, had a huge first six months of 2020, but it's been falling. there have been some telling notes from analysts arguing there's a buying opportunity there now not necessarily because of the antibody, the covid antibody, but some of the

eczema drugs, for example, potentially -- investors, rather aren't appreciating the full opportunity there of a drug which analysts say going to be significant for the company over the next decade or so. jack: big news in the alzheimer's world or, eli lilly and biogen had news about it, we don't have time to talk about it now, we'll have to have you back. >> see ya. jack: up next, round table jack: up next, round table members giv

jack: up next, round table members giv ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ jack: jack, it is market lore or that joseph kennedy sold his stocks right before the '29 crash because a shoe shine guy started giving him stock tips. you have updated that for 2021.

>> well, it needs updating. first of all, who's wearing shoes? people are wearing slippers to work right now. i don't even say you can say shoe shine boys without sounding ageist and sexist and elitist or all at once, and i don't need that kind of heat, so i'm looking for a new bubble indicator. think i might have found one. let's take a look at these videos. >> i don't know if you guys have heard about this, but they help our veterinarians and our furry friends. >> just going to say that it's going to $10,000, and bitcoin is going to 100,000. >> so that's, those are cameo videos of carole baskin from the tiger king movie, she's pitching a penny stock that ended up tripling, and the other was lindsay lohan. she's saying bitcoin is going to more than double from here. i think cameo stock tips might be the new shoe shine indicator. i mean, this, you know, it's early to say, but if i see a

video with pauly shore telling me to go lounge doordash, i'm going to get pretty concerned. jack: yeah. i don't know, if lindsay lohan loves bitcoin, i lo it too. carlton, i think you've got a much more sober recommendation for us with your actionable idea. >> yeah. i don't want lindsay lohan stealing my job. i'm taking a look at the ishares global structure etf. i've got a car, i'm hoping we eventually start to see some infrastructure spending. this etf is trading a little bit below pre-pandemic levels, about a third of its expose your to the u.s. jack: ben, what's your idea? >> i like 3m here. the stock has dropped 8% over the last 12 months while the industrial sector has gone up 6%. there's an overhang regarding some chemicals it used to use in its moringing, but earn -- manufacturing. analysts starting to think they might have a big beat there, and

i think it looks good. jack: that is an interesting idea. i love yours, carlton. thanks, jack. to read more, check out this week's edition at barron's.com, and don't forget to follow us on twitter @barronsonline. stay s dr. michael youssef: hello, friends. you know, in the midst of all this coronavirus apprehension and fear and so forth, god led us to go to the middle east and to be ministering particularly in egypt, where we had seen some amazing things god is doing there. i cannot wait to tell you more about it, but i just want to share with you a few things of how many people coming to christ in large numbers convinces me that god is gathering his elect from every corner. and kingdom sat, leading the way, our ministry is a major part of it. now our channel is in 200 million homes