♪. stuart: three big stormries on the market today. first off the big decline. the dow industrials down 300, nasdaq down 300. the yield on the 10-year treasury getting close to 1 1/2%. yes, the frenzy in those stocks is back. gamestop all the way up again. neil, it's yours. neil: thank you, my friend. i will try to turn this around, man, oh, man, stuart a confluence of events not helping those bullish on the market. the big seminal point, i don't want to get too wonky, bore you to death. i save that for the full two hours. the treasury note had been 1 1/2% very early this morning. here is why that could be a big deal for stocks. the dividend yield, what you sort of get extra bang for the buck on stocks and s&p 500 is

roughly 1.43%. the case you are making to own stocks as sort of a shelter, in a low interest rate environment suddenly evaporated here. now how that plays out is anyone's guess as we tee the backup in rate on 30 year side as well. five-year side as well. we generally don't follow that too much but it is at-year highs. it was in and out of .75%. you have this sort of trifecta of key rates we're following have been backing off, off the worst levels i should say. now you can get more for your money investing in a treasury, top the dividend yield on the s&p 500. not good for the s&p 500, not good for the dow, nasdaq, technology stocks taking it on the chin. we're revisiting all of that froth, whatever you want to call it. neil: with all the attention given to gamestop, amc, koss, all that other stuff. that is a big, big issue right

now. taking a peek at the five-year it come off the worst levels. this backup in rate, come tugs for stocks, i sound like a broken record but it is a concern. we have been watching this very, very closely for the last actually couple of months. we'll continue doing that. we like to stay ahead of the curve. jackie deangelis, more than ahead of the curve and more than a lot of the time. jackie, what is interesting here is that the confluence of events. rake rate backup, the up and down nature of bitcoin all coming together at the same time. >> it is. you make a great point. we unfortunately don't know how it will play out. it is this push and pull in the marketplace we thinking about a recovery a strong economy, watching rising rates and deciding as an investor where the best place individually for you depending on your investment time horizon to put your money

and where you get the most return for it and that is why we see choppy sessions he have day now until we see more of a trend the way this is going. we're watching bonds as you mentioned. as stocks are selling off ponds are selling off. the yield on the rise 1.46% t was close to the 1.5% mark. you can see the low back on march 9th. we've come a long way since bonds were a safety trade for the coronavirus pandemic. meantime you were talking about the rally in gamestop. that rally is not over this is remarkable. another 46-dollar move, well over 100-dollar mark. the shorts were squeezed out early. some think this is new buying, with new money. some say other short information positions were added. this could be a new dynamic. the shorted stocks are up pretty much with the exception of blackberry. talk about moderna, they

reported earnings this morning. this is one to watch. the maker of the second vaccine with emergency use authorization on united states. on the bottom line, the loss was larger than expected. those sales doubled because of the vaccine rollout. you can see the stock is up on that. the company is working on the clinical trial of the south african variant of covid-19. it increased the 2021 dose production plan by 100 million doses for global production. this is all positive news. speaking of those variants, pfizer biontech testing a booster shot and its ability to combat covid-19 variants. they're working with regulators for testing a modified version of their vaccine that would specifically target the new variants. something to watch there. final point, look at shares of twitter today, because the company said it expects double annual revenue to $316 million,

reaching 200 million users. people watching twitter. it banned president trump and exodus there. seeing how that will shake out. so far so good for the stock, neil. neil: thank you very much, jackie on that. let me give you a nutshell what's going on. you see the selloff in stocks and selloff in s&p, nasdaq technology stocks and tesla down 3%, apple, amazon they were in and out of one-to-one 1/2% losses i want to put a half full glass version of this together for you. a lot of the background for this is an improving economy. things are really picking up. picking up in a marked rate. we're seeing it from the national retail federation could see sales grow in excess of 8% this year as we come out of the pandemic. we're seeing right now out of early car sales, despite all the computer chip problems, still holding up. we're seeing it even in the housing industry. they will start, stymied of course by the higher price of

wood, things like that. the fact of the matter more people are looking around, not only quite literally kicking the tires when it comes to cars, looking for home shopping, that is the backdrop. people are coming out of their pandemic hiding and looking to do some buying here. so that is part of the backdrop for this. and it is lifting a lot of inflationary commodity prices and the like, everything from oil to natural gas to tin and copper magnesium, one of my favorites to follow, even foodstuffs, the basis of the stuff you buy when you go to the grocery store, all of those advancing in this environment of higher demand. look at oil over 63 bucks a barrel. remember a few months ago, that was hovering around 35 bucks a barrel? these are relatively low levels as the yields showing you when you look at 10-year, five-year, even 30 year, still very, very low levels. keep in mind when we talk about the 10-year, just in and out of

1 1/2%, back last summer it was hovering around .50%. so it has essentially tripled in that time. it is not so much where we are, but where we are coming from. a lot built on good news i want to give you a bigger picture on this there is also stimulus in the face of that. wall street if it had its druthers, improving economy notwithstanding would prefer $1.9 trillion stimulus, well it will stimulate. convinced bigger deficits, debt be damned they want to see it. they like the idea of infrastructure behind that, the idea of $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, what the house wants to do, what the senate can do are two very different matters, that is not such a slam dunk or easily settled although they are trying to as we speak. chad pergram, fox news congressional correspondent, what can you tell us? reporter: neil, it is up to the

senate parliamentarian to decide whether the wage hike qualifies for the next phase of coronavirus relief. she can knock it out, the senate uses special budget rules which could exclude such a provision, policy, not fiscal in nature. the house is poised to at least start with $15 an hour baseline in the bill friday. >> we're waiting as we all are to hear from the senate parcel parliamentarian what will happen with the minimum wage piece of legislation. reporter: pelosi says the house will pass a bill at some point which increases wage. democratic senators joe manchin and kyrsten sinema oppose the minimum wage increase. democrats can't pass the bill without their help. they probably won't get help from republican. >> the problem with the bill it is wasteful spending, it is pork, buying off members of

congress, using wish-list of coronavirus as an excuse. reporter: house democrats can only lose five votes. democrat alexandria ocasio-cortez insist the wage hike be in a coronavirus bill. any problem with liberals could deliver a loss to presidentwide. neil? neil: chad, let me see if i understand this right. you're an encyclopedia with this stuff, get it through my thick skull, the parliamentarian can decide, a hike in the minimum wage can be part of a reconciliation bill and that person can't be challenged or final word is that parliamentarian? reporter: you could challenge it. here is how it works. you consider the bill underbudget reconciliation which means you eliminate a filibuster. don't need 60 votes to cut off a filibuster. you need 51 votes to pas the bill. this is where it gets complicated and this is significant. if you need to wave the budget

act, the idea the budget act created reconciliation process, this is the structure they're considering this bill, you can wave the budget act and overrule the parliamentarian, i say overrule the parliamentarian with 60 votes. that is different than 60 votes to cut off a filibuster. that is how you do it, if you need 51 votes to pass the bill you will certainly not get 60 votes to override the ruling of the parliamentarian. neil: got it. glad i asked that question. for any updates we'll go to you, my friend. one thing we're looking at market, looking at steep losses 323 points is the backup in yields. i told you when it comes to the ten-year note we have seen that backup triple the level it was at recently as last summer. you know, it is a little bit more startling than that when charlie brady, our stocks editor, much, much more, the guy

is a savant with this stuff saying at the end of the december the yield on the 10-year was .912%. you can see we're hovering in and out of that 1 1/2% level. in the scheme really seven or eight weeks now we have seen that backup a full half-point. so looking at it a different way would be like an investment value that it has fallen, you know, 50%. looking at it that way. it is, weird way to look at that, from the march 2020 lows but as charlie was pointing out, as recently as the end of last year it was still well under 1%. so keep that in mind as a development shows the trend that isn't necessarily the friend of stock investors that worry that this is going to be new competition for stocks. now you have the relative safety of investing in treasury security that does better than the yield you get on the

s&p 500. so a little less of a crapshoot there for you if you're deciding this market has been crazy, i want to protect my money. now you can, kind of. that is a worry. is it a justified worry? kristin soltys anderson, dan gelber, both of these folks follow these trends closely, dan's case being an accountant, crunch the numbers. let him crunch away. dan, this development, you reminded me we're in a low rate environment. we're not in as low of a rate environment. now that it is competition for those who want invested stocks but are leery because right now there is an alternative, is this an alternative? >> it certainly is, neil. you can see the impact that it is having on the market. i think your assessment of what you just went through for the viewers was spot on in terms of

all the factors that we're seeing. is 1 1/2% a big deal? , no, not when you look at it in a vacuum but if you look at trending, that 50% increase, and the impact that has on the market where you know, there is always uncertainty and pandemic has really, shall we say impacted peoples thinking. if they have an opportunity to get out of the market and come down a little bit, take away some of that risk, they're going to take it. that is exactly what we're seeing right now. neil: you know, kristen what we're also seeing a steady spate of good economic numbers that reinforce this notion, things are picking up steam, i think considerable steam. i'm not editorializing it, when i look at durable goods orders, biggest gain in six months, anheuser-busch forecasting a

meaningfully better 2021, when twitter is soaring, sensing doubling of revenues by the end of 2023, hearing kay jewelers, zales, the parent, lifting workers to 15 bucks an hour, like walmart, amazon is doing, you don't do any of this kind of stuff, you don't say any of this kind of stuff unless you're optimistic. that might be making people reassess stimulus. we want stimulus. we don't, you know, markets aside, maybe we don't need as big after stimulus package s that coming into play where good economic news is going to be translated as bad market news? >> well i think that has been part of the argument i heard many republicans make. we need some covid relief but $1.9 trillion doesn't necessarily seem like the right number, isn't necessarily targeted with the places where it is needed. there are some doing well right

now. there are some industries thriving right now. i took a look this morning at "realclearpolitics" average. 41% of americans say the country is on a right track. that doesn't sound like a high number but compared to where it has been for some time, that is growing optimism from the american public. they're seeing things, vaccine being distributed. seems to be working. that we may actually get back to normalcy more quickly perhaps we had thought. there is more pressure on some of these public health officials, painting a doom and gloom picture, to stop scaring people, getting vaccine back to path to normalcy. faster than you thought. that has got to be good for the economy. neil: i'm glad you mentioned that, kristin, that is the other part of this equation, forget the good economic news. the faster you make progress with vaccines and get these covid cases down, they're down double digits in this country. hospitalizations, deaths, bless

fully are down double digits in this country, across the world, across the world. and that is part of the thinking that as the these vaccines, you know penetrate the world, get into more people's arms we could have this herd immunity maybe early in april if one doctor is right, others seem to agreeing with him. dan, i'm wondering whether that is playing into this? that, i know i'm maybe trying to be a little bit too pollyannish here, i see the sell-off indicating all of that good news. that is what they don't know to you know, appreciate or deappreciate. what do you think? >> i think that's part of it, neil. when you put this whole picture together and stimulus, do we need this much stimulus, no, actually we don't, we need targeted stimulus to get more vaccines into arms. by doing that, and we get herd

immunity, people are going to get out more. we're already seeing that happen. let's not forget when we get to the warmer weather people will start going out more. so there is a whole process here in play. do we really need to take on more debt? i don't think so, although no one seems to really care that much about it. we know the market wants more stimulus but we just don't need it. the best thing that government can do right now in my opinion, focus in on the vaccines and then get out of the way and let the market and the economy run itself. neil: real quickly, i agree with what dan is saying, kristen, but the reality of this package, this stimulus package getting cut down, i think will still be greeted as a disappointment. i fully agree with dan, given improving conditions. given facts so many states are awash in revenues they never saw

coming. i think the reality of the markets hearing, all right, we're shrinking this stimulus package down, delaying some of its features, i don't know if markets respond favorably to that? >> i know the public will respond favorably as congress is able to do something, something seems at least well-targeted where it belongs. neil: right. >> when i look at surveys i see republicans, democrats, live in practically different universes what issues they care about but the most unifying issue is the economic recovery from covid-19. you will see pressure even on folks who are republican, feeling fiscal conservative, they don't want to throw money out the window, viewing this, people on my side say businesses are hurting, lockdowns, state and local governments told them they can't operate. maybe it is the role of government to step in to give them more assistance as we try to get over the final hurdle as we get back to normalcy.

neil: people like dan complaining about inability to get into their favorite italian restaurants. hopefully go in there, leave us alone. but, guys, hang around we'll go into a lot more with you, the fact that donald trump's tax returns are sitting in the hot hands of the district attorney in new york. implications of that, what we might learn from that should any of this leak out, which is usually a good likelihood the way this thing kind of normally works. we'll have more after this. ♪. did you know you can go to libertymutual.com to customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need? really? i didn't-- aah! ok. i'm on vibrate. aaah!

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look, liberty mutual customizes home insurance so we only pay for what we need. it's pretty cool. that is cool! grandma! very cool. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ ♪. >> i mean there is a rush for these vaccines. how do you deal with that in connecticut? >> neil, keep it simple and keep it clear so you know what date your age group is available. 45 and above, late march, for example. the way the cdc did it, they said grocery store workers. what if i work at a convenience store? what if i sell groceries in my big box store, am i included or not? pretty soon involves 2/3 of our

population. just wasn't going to work. too many people through the funnel all at the same time. neil: one of the things i love about the connecticut governor ned lamont, he just tries to keep it simple distributing vaccines right now, pushing to make it anyone over 60, come and get it, all of that. i'm over simplifying it here, the idea they will not have mixed standards, this group for teachers, this is for emergency workers. all that is taken care of already in the nutmeg state. all of this at a time things are going so well there, eschewing any tax hikes in his state as a result. the big news, when you look at red arrows, you see the selloff, all of this is born of good news. i know that seems a lot of this is upside down. the news vaccines are getting out there, news from pfizer's president of global supply right now quoting, we could

potentially deliver approximately 2 billion doll doses of vaccine by the by the end of 2021. maybe in concert with biontech, but the fact is that they're moving fast and furiously to get this stuff out. so obviously the more vaccines that become available, the more ahead of the curve we are in dealing with the virus, the sooner people get back to work, the more that helps the economy and there in is the problem. the more it helps the economy is the less you need stimulus and maybe the less you need stocks, if all of sudden you get better return on passive investments or treasury notes and bonds, that sort of thing. that is convoluted explanation is going on here. that is not bad. built on good news, the good news should be focus of what is happening now on the vaccine front and it is, very, very positive. steve harrigan on that rollout, how it is going right now. hey, steve.

reporter: neil, really depends where you are in the country. some states proving to be much more efficient of utilizing doses of vaccine that they have gotten than others. at very top, new mexico, 99% of the doses vaccine utilized. west virginia next, 98%. way further down, arkansas, maryland they have used 70% or less of doses they have been given. the ramp up in production much the vaccine has been tremendous. 14.5 million doses this week provided to states. another two million provided directly to pharmacies. that is double the amount much vaccine available just five weeks ago. of course the third vaccine enroute in the coming days for emergency apositively. that is the single shot use of john johnson & johnson. tests show it is 66% effective against moderate or severe covid-19. the two other vaccines available are more than 90% effective. >> no matter which vaccine you

get you will be protected against severe disease. that is an important thing right now when we think about the hospitals and the population in general. reporter: we heard a lot about variants of the virus. moderna is already working on a booster shot to help deal with mutations of covid-19. neil, back to you. neil: steve, thank you very, very much. steve harrigan in atlanta following all of that here. as the selloff ensues at the corner of wall and broad it is hitting a lot of sector, tech particularly hard but fact much the matter the real underlying theme here there is competition for stocks now. you know, not incredibly stellar competition for that, still paltry yields when you look at something in 1 1/2%. that still beats the yield on the s&p 500. that is all you need. if people had a choice to risk it in the crazy stock market or put a little dough aside have it protected by uncle sam and treasurys i will dot latter. it is about a draw. that is part of what is going on

here. congressman chuck fleishmann, tennessee republican, sits on the house appropriations committee. congressman, gets back to a point you raised, why be so generous with stimulus if the economy is doing just fine and these latest stats, back up in rates seeps to attest what you said weeks ago but they're still going full speed ahead with this plan, $1.9 trillion plan, right? >> neil, unfortunately, you're right. this has been a politicized bill. this is a bill that 90% of it doesn't deal with covid relief. i had hoped when i listened to president biden's inaugural speech, he was talking about working together and unifying those were empty words. this is empty rhetoric. this bill is a cram-down by the left. it has got biden, pelosi, schumer's political priorities there. it is unnecessary in its current form. i think it is detrimental in its current form.

i wish we could stop it but unfortunatelyth using budget reconciliation and it is cram-down. neil: what is interesting too? i know democrats want to push, we'll leave the senate parcel parliamentarian to break the tie whether the measure in the senate can include a hike in the minimum wage, i will find out later, i was noticing ahead of our chat, kay jewelers, parent zales jewelers hiking wages to $15 for all the workers. on heels of walmart doing the same. amazon, standard procedure. target close to, at these levels. these are big retailers. not mom-and-pop stores and the rest. they're doing it for selfish needs and compete for labor in hot markets. gets back to another point you made whether you need to be considering that? certainly now, certainly in this legislation. what do you think? >> well you're absolutely right.

i want to see wages go up for all hard-working americans but i want the free market to contain that, to direct that. obviously right now we have a lot of small businesses struggling all across the united states in many sectors. it is clearly going to be devastating for a $15 minimum wage. this is what i would call an undo burden on small business, it is burden on regulation. once you codify in the law you can't look back. ultimately it will hurt, hurt teenage unemployment. it is not good for the country at this time. i wish they would back off of that. our last hope you alluded to, the senate parliamentarian. hopefully this can be excluded from the bill. neil: we shall see on that, sir. parliamentarian has unusual power and prerogative. she is elizabeth mcdonough. been in the office since 2012.

appointed by senate majority leader harry reid. cynics say she will do bidding of democrats. she is stickler for detail, whether you can or can't do something like this in a reconciliation measure. it gets into the weeds. but this one woman could decide the course of stimulus and nearly two trillion dollar package. stay with us. ♪. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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♪. neil: do you ever get the idea these big retailers try to get to mesh with each other? we're learning from costco's ceo testifying on capitol hill it is going to raise its starting wage to $16 next week. that would be higher than walmart, target, amazon. there are differences here depending on the workforce that

would be the starting wage at costco, effective next week, $16 an hour. the backdrop of an improving economy that of course these are the big box retailers and big guys can afford to do this in response labor pressures within their store environments here. a lot tougher for the local pizza shop owner, small business owner to challenge them on that front. it's a backdrop to the other story that could be holding up stimulus to hike the minimum wage at the federal level, do so promptly. republicans are arguing, some democrats as well, joe manchin among them, that if corporations can lead the way, government need isn't do anything about that but it is an environment where things are picking up. you don't do this, hike your minimum wage if things were not picking up in the economy. i want to show you how that affected rates. we told you the 10-year note since christmastime has backed up from .90% to the two 1/2%

level we've been talking about here but the fact of the matter here, the mortgage rates themselves, have been relatively contained. by the way i meant to stay 1 1/2%, still a back up, but mortgage rates have not backed up nearly as much. that is good news for perspective shareholders. anthony shea for the loan depot ceo. the good news for loans, rates are backing up, when it comes to mortgage rates of any sort they have been kind of holding their own, backing up a little bit, not nearly as much as we've been seeing in some of the underlying rates like the 10-year, what have you. what do you make of that? >> well, that's right, neil. mortgage rates are still at historic lows. they're not as low as they were three, four, five months ago. there are some nerves about inflation. so the 10-year has moved now

upwards to above 1.40 now. but mortgage rates are still historically low in the 3% range. it is a great time for anyone considering buying a home. neil: all right. so the mortgage rate inflation, if you want to call it that is one thing. the other issue, anthony, is the cost of homes themselves. that has been moving up, rather smartly. lumber a big issue in new housing. that has gone over $1000 now. other key parts of a home have gotten so pricey that you hear anecdotally of stories of buyers who have the contracts canceled or have to cancel themselves. how significant is that development? >> well the cost to produce and cost of labor continues to increase but what we're seeing post-covid, neil, is the supply demand issue with housing where you know, many buyers are starting to realize that you know, the home that they

typically lived in before now they're doing many more things because of covid, including working and living, all those other activities so many homebuyers are stepping up. at the same time, you're looking at very much shrinking inventory problem that we have, i think across the nation. there is only a two month supply now. interesting to see what happens this year as covid continues to unwind. what happens to the supply and demand curve. mostly what happens to the inventory because you know, it is hard to continue to have a thriving purchase market with high transactions when there is lacking inventory. neil: anthony shea, thank you very be very much. markets doing when they're doing, trying to keep abreast of that as well. we're up, just to let you know everyone knows rates are still low. we don't understand the concern especially after jerome powell

was indicated he could have the markets back. here is the thing about the federal reserve, folks, it can control short-term interest rates, overnight fed funds, bank lending rate, discount rate, even three and six month bills. can force them at a level, and get its way. these other rates, we're talking five-year note or the 10-year note and bonds all of that. that is beyond their control. markets and free markets and that sort of set that tone. herein lies this conundrum short-term rates are staying very, very low. longer-term rates going up to the 10. there you can see a 30-year at 2.31%. they're backing up. that steepening yield curve, generally, generally indicates an improving economy. that is the good news. here is the bad news. if the federal reserve is saying we want to control this, this is as timely a reminder yet, that they want.

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traders upset? he points out the vix index, volatility index it gets scary, people get scared and it spikes. that is seeing its biggest rise in a month. furthermore. we're looking at the nasdaq being on pace for the biggest two week loss we've had since october. what i really love about charlie, what he helps me do when i was crescendo event today baseloff dovetails with sort of the yield on the s&p 500 clashing with the yield on the 10-year note. now, nancy our director is a great director. i'm putting this onus on her. nancy, showing this from charlie. it is very hard to see. i understand if you can't, we're going to get graphics involved in this, you see what is going on here? this is where the yield on the s&p 500 is versus 10-year note. narrowed. they're about touching. back in march of last year, back

in the lows we saw in the selloff in the pandemic, it had been very different. now it was much wider. that gap is much, much wider, between the 10-year yield and the dividend yield of s&p 500. now why do you say i mention that or charlie drive my attention to that? i will tell you why it hasn't happened in this long bull market. it is a rarity, a fluke. i think what is jarring traders it is weighing on them because now all of a sudden, this notion where else will you go with your money, well now, you have an alternative, not a sexy alternative, not a big yielding alternative. how about 1.49% alternative? i know. i know. here is the difference with the treasury alternative, it is backed by the full, faith, credit of united states government. stocks not so much. that makes that an tempting lure

for investor who want to part their money in a safer place. do okay as they could versus the s&p 500. kristin soltys anderson and dan geltrude. dan, when you see it that way, it hits you. it has been a while and could be tempting. the question i will ask you, is it going to last a while? >> neil, i wish i knew the definitive answer to that but what i think is happening here, you have people who are at least looking to diversify some of their investments. let's get some risk off the table while we have the opportunity to do that. now, how long is this going to last? well, there are some factors that go into that, neil. we really have to see what happens with the economy, what happens with stimulus, and of course the vaccine driving all of this. i think when we see those answers it is going to give us a better idea of whether more people are going to look to move

funds out of the market for flight to safety. neil: all right. showing this again. i'm putting our floor director on the spot. don't worry, nancy, if you can't get this, i think the rough trend might show it here. a free commercial for apple. i didn't mean to do that. if you look in the beginning, there was a huge gap between the yield on the s&p 500 and made it sort of a no-brainer versus getting virtually 0% for your money last march, in the throes of the pandemic. now it is even money. now they're touching each other. i guess the question is, will investor looking at this craziness in the stock market say, i would rather keep my money than lose my money. do you see the psyche potentially changing because this is the day they crossed. it doesn't mean that they stay crossed. it has been narrowing for a steady year. what do you think?

[no audio] neil: kristin. >> sorry. neil: i have that affect on people they're sometimes stunned with my brilliance actually coming through charlie brady i can well understand your awe but when do you make of this, that this might have some staying power i guess what i'm getting at? >> look, i don't think it surprises me after the turbulent year we've all been through that folks are looking to find ways to avoid some risk at this moment. we could be on a the verge of a moment we get back to normal, the economy takes off. if it does you want to be certainly on the ride just having been through the last year, just psychologically, trading average american wanting to make sure you are insured of the risk of all sorts of craziness occurring i think something is a bigger part, not just the american psyche but the global psyche. behavior risk aversion, that is,

risk aversion doesn't surprise me no matter what field i'm seeing it in these days. neil: dan, i want to appeal the accountant in you who advises their clients about things, if they're nervous about the stock market, tell them, well, look at bonds? >> at this point i really would. i think kristin was right over the past year, a lot of people have really been on the edge of their seat and watching all of the craziness that has been going on. now that there is an opportunity to try to get some calm in their investment life, i would say, to take a look at that. but you know, something, neil? what i also see here on the horizon, i see the stars aligning, is the inflation factor. because we are now starting to go in that direction when you see costco raising their minimum wage, going above $16, that

tells me that those costs are going to start getting passed along to the consumer. you talked about lumber and commodities. this is starting to align in an area where we're going to have prices going up. neil: all right. >> then how is that going to affect the investors psyche? neil: final word on that. that is what we don't know. we'll have more after this. we started with computers. we didn't stop at computers. we didn't stop at storage or cloud. we kept going. working with our customers to enable the kind of technology that can guide an astronaut back to safety. and help make a hospital come to you, instead of you going to it. so when it comes to your business, you know

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neil: bottom line, we're down at corner of wall and broad, things are looking up in the u.s. of a. some reminders of that, weekly jobless claims fell to 730,000 versus 841,000 just the week before. anheuser-busch seeing a meaningful and better 2021. durable goods orders posting their biggest gain in six months. on that good news, rates are backing up, stocks are falling down. but it is predicated on stuff that is happening that you should like. just that those who invest in the corner of wall and broad for the time-being, do not like it. stay with us. you're watching fox business.

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♪ neil: here we go again. you can time this to a tick. welcome back, everybody, i'm neil veto, and you're watching -- cavuto, and you're watching fox business. we are watching a selloff, and it happened when the 10-year treasury yield spiked once again, hitting the highest yield level we've seen in the better part of a year. that immediate liquor responded to a tumble -- immediately corresponded to a tumble in stocks. among some of the biggest

contributors, boeing accounting for 3.6% slide, salesforce is down a little north of 2.5%, we've got microsoft about 2%. those stocks taken together are representing the lion's share of the dow's decline right now, at least about half of it. but again, this on news that the 10-year note is backing up, so the yield on the 10-year note now eclipsed that of the dividend yield on the s&p 500. there used to be a chasm between these two, and thousand it slightly favors fixed income investments, and that is a harbinger that generally some who like stocks don't like to see because it's competition for stocks. now, they could be overacting because it might be competition, but it's tend -- tepid, and you're assuming stocks won't

elevate here. we've not seen this in quite a while, and it is weighing on stocks right now. i wonder if it's weighing on charlie gasparino. i always apologize when i go to these breaking news developments, but i don't know many people who can handle them as well as you do. first, i want to touch on this anomaly where you get a little more bang for your buck investing in a treasury than you do compared to the yield in the s&p 500. could be a short-lived event, although you and i have been talking about this for some time because that spread habaneroing the better part of a year. has been narrowing the better part of a year. what do you think? >> you could see a selloff was coming, and we don't know how deep this is going to be, whether it's one day or further, and that inflation is an issue. we saw a lot of that when you saw the reaction on cryptocurrencies, bitcoin starting going through the roof. and one of the reasons why bitcoin was going through the roof is because people are

losing confidence in u.s. currencies. the buying power of the dollar. and, you know, you're back up there, it's down below its highs which was 57,000, but it's going back up again, as you can see close to 50,000 again. and that's, when that happens, people start worrying about inflation. all you have to do is look at this deal which, you know, you were covering this pretty granularly earlier in the week and late last week. when you have governors now telling you they're having surpluses, governors in connecticut, governors in new jersey on top of that you have the federal government looking to spend $1.9 trillion and give more money to, for minimum wage increases and things of that nature, when it looks like the economy is getting better, well, you know, you're going to get, you're going to get inflation fears, and that's what we have right now. i mean, it's clearly people are starting to price in inflation. now, whether this lasts forever, i can't tell you, whether it's one day, two knows.

but the federal reserve controls short-term interest rates, it doesn't control most interest rates. those are traded -- neil: exactly. >> and traders and investors want to be ebb compensated for high higher inflationary fears, and that's what we have right now. put it all together, you have a blow outspending plan that the, you know, when you go through it, it's a lot of, it's a lot of nonsense, there's not a lot of stuff going -- targeted to people who really need it. it's targeted to everybody, even people who don't need it. so it's throwing money at an economy that's improving, okay? on top of that, you have lower caseloads of covid, you have vaccines coming to fruition. you have, i mean, there are so many positive signs on top of a blow outspending package for the economy that, you know, you're going to get people start worrying about inflation. and, you know, the seeds were being set by larry summers, of all people, who said that, you know, the current package is crazy.

it's $1.9 trillion of whatever, you know? [laughter] and it's like throwing money into something that could lead to inflation. listen, i remember inflation when i was a kid. you probably do as well. i mean, i pumped gas when i was a kid, and i remember lines around the block because of oil shortages, gas shortages, and that a led to stagflation. you know, it's no fun when inflation hits. it's a tax on the working class, to be honest with you, because working class people -- rich people can speculate in stocks, working class people get, you know, see commodities and food prices go through the roof. you know, we're not quite there yet, but that's why you have to worry about inflation. and the markets are pricing that in. with all this market craziness, does joe biden or any of the people in congress rethink this stimulus package because clearly that's -- the size of this thing and the sort of amorphous -- it's not really amorphous, that's not the right word, the

wide-ranging nature of it where it's not just $1.9 trillion to stick needles in people's arms for vaccines or for people that are really hurting because they work in the restaurant industry, it's throwing money out there. and that's what is causing the inflationary fears, and that's what's causing the markets to sell off. and, you know, i just wonder if they, if they're worried about that at all in washington. i mean, it's just, it's crazy. i mean, jerome powell says he's not raising interest rates forever. i mean, think about that. [laughter] you talk about an inflationary -- i mean, this is, we're in crazy town. and we're going to get more of in this. and, by the way, on top of all this markets are down 500 points, guess what's up today? as you showed bitcoin is up? and gamestop, the two most speculative stocks. [laughter] that makes no sense whatsoever. neil: amc and all the others that were part of that tandem runup that hearkened babbling to that mania. is this the mania returning,

charlie? at lot of people look at this, okay, this is overdone, we shouldn't be off 522 points simply because the 10-year has eclipsed the yield by a teeny bit on the s&p 500. but i sometimes think markets respond to a confluence of events. >> right. neil: and this is among them, that maybe either giving an excuse to sell, they've locked in a lot of profits or an opportunity to bow out until the dust settles. what do you think. >> >> we don't know. it's hard to make broad conclusions on one day of trading. clearly, the fears are getting priced in to. you've got to look at stuff long term. but there's clearly something wacky with the markets when you have a thing like bitcoin which has no real inherent value going through the roof, when you have gamestop which was a penny stock a couple of months ago, now trading back up to the nose bleed levels it was before the robin hood-reddit frenzy.

and then like markets trading off, you know, violently because, you know, for a day the yield on the 10-year is a little bit higher than the yield on the s&p 500. i mean, it's just nuts. and, you know, you get -- to be honest with you, you get this when you have prolonged 0% interest rates. there's no real foundation to this. and on top of that, you have massive spending coming from washington, and you throw that all together, and we're going to see choppiness. i can't tell you where it's going to end up. the only place i can tell you that is not -- you know, the economy's getting better, there's no doubt about that. people are getting vaccines in the arm. the only place, ironically, that's not getting better is new york. and i will tell you this, we've been looking at surveys from the new york city partnership, it is fascinating. we are losing jobs and people like crazy here in new york city. we basically are, we're becoming a second class city right before our eyes while the rest of the

nation largely prospers. and it's the new york city partnership which is, i guess, a good government group that basically crunches these numbers. and i'm telling you, it is staggering what they're reporting. 500 -- people leaving in droves, more than ever before. so, you know, some good news out there, but that picture you see outside is not so good, neil. back to you. neil: no. i'm more worried for you. you're in the office a second day running -- >> it feels great. by the way, it feels great. i spoke to my wife, she's happy. i just want you to know because my mother-in-law took a little umbrage about what i said yesterday about me being happy to be away are from my wife. my wife is happy to be away from me. just so we're clear about this. we're both in very good moods today. i just want to lay that out there, you know? neil: no, i'm glad you did, because i worry for you, buddy.

[laughter] we go back to the '73 oil embargo and yeah, boy, i don't want you to be embargoed. we'll see what happens. [laughter] yeah, don't get me started. all right, charlie gasparino, thank you very much, my friend. he just calls it as he sees you. again, just to update you on this selloff, a lot of it borne of this technical development. suffice it to say, you know, people are looking at, you know, returns that are different right now. the yield on the s&p 500 which takes dividends into account for all the s&p 500 stocks, averages them out and right now no matter how you averaged it out in the past, it always, always, always was far, far more than you could get on a simple treasury, like a 10-year note. that is until today. because the return on a 10-year, which is backed by the government of the united states of america, is better than the yield on the s&p 500. it is a compelling case to make

if you're nervous about what's going on in stocks to just park your covered money in a treasury. and that's what's going on. all right, senator shelley moore capito with us right now, west virginia republican senator, sits on the appropriations committee. senator, i don't want to get in the weeds, suffice it to say -- and i think you mentioned this last time we chatted as well, senator -- the economy's improving. we don't need to go nuts on another stimulus package because it is improving, and we've seen steady evidence of that which is, ironically, it hitting stocks for just that reason. all of a sudden rates are back up on that improving economy. so are are they still going gangbusters on getting this $1.9 trillion stimulus through? hook or crook, no matter what the markets are saying? >> it certainly seems like they're going gangbusters on the $1.9 trillion. as you might recall, i was with a group of republicans that put a counterproposal out that focused in on things you were just talking about, vaccine,

testing, schools, unemployment, people who still are still really suffering. and we want to make sure that's where we target. but they've loaded another trillion dollars onto this will it's a bridge in california or it's pension relief or it's minimum wage rates, all of these things that are extraneous to covid. and i think you're going to see some results from this. the economy is improving. is it where we need it to be? no, there's still a lot of people hurting, so let's focus on them. but i don't think -- neil: when you say, senator, focused on them -- i'm sorry, senator -- >> sure. neil: -- you're playing along with the mitt romneys and some of these others talking about a $618 billion plan, about a third of the cost of the democratic plan. so as things stand now, if they're only offering that, it sounds like you would be a no vote. >> oh, i'm definitely a no vote. i can't support putting this future trillion dollars -- some of it's not even going to be spent until 2028.

if you look at the education money, two-thirds of the money that we appropriated over the last five bipartisan to covid bills still hasn't gone out. so we're going to load another over $100 billion to our schools, a lot of them not even open? i don't think that makes good sense. we're giving money to 21 states who have actually done better over the last year in terms of tax collections and in terms of economic viability. so we're basically rewarding the states that haven't, and i think there again not much accountability, not to satisfy me. and then there's other, young, green energy things -- you know, green energy things and sort of their usual wish list that they've thrown into this. and unfortunately, i think that we could have reached a good spot between 6-800 billion where we would focus in on the health and well-being of these people still hurting and everybody in general in terms of vaccine distribution and testing and all of the things connected directly to the virus.

neil: senator, one last question. i know we're waiting to hear from the senate 35r8menttarian on whether you can include a hike in the minimum wage. ing. >> we are. neil: let's say she says, no, you can't, and that seems to be the case. i'm not sure, you're more on top of this than i am, i can imagine the democrats will challenge that. and could this get to be a nasty back and forth over whether you can or can't include a wage hike in a reconciliation bill? >> well, it's a technical question that the parliamentarian's going to answer here at -- whenever. i mean, any minute now. i think it is expected to drop out. the vice president, when we were talking with him -- i mean, the president when we were talking with him expects it to drop out. we need to have a broader discussion on minimum wage. i think it's time to relook at it. we haven't looked at it since 2007 where i voted for it then. but do i think it's going to get down to the point where you bring vice president harris in to break a tie and you raise the

minimum wage and, you know, you go against the parliamentarian? i don't think we're going to get to that point. but, you know, you never know around here. [laughter] neil: do you see any of your republican colleagues voting for this? >> at this point, no, i don't. i have -- i'm on a whip card here, i'm on the whip team, and i haven't run into anybody who is voting for it, and it's because it's got so much pork loaded into it. and because it's not bipartisan. you know, it's really, i think, has been a mistake by the new leadership at the white house and also in the house and senate to try to take something that we've all agreed on and politicize it. and that's what we're seeing here. but, you know, good things are going to happen in here, certainly, that we would have supported, but there's a lot in here that i cannot and many of my colleagues will not support. neil: senator cap toe, thank you very much. >> all right. neil: good catching up with you. >> thank you. neil: all right. we'll take a quick break here. the dow coming back a tiny, tiny

bit. but, again, with the 10-year now in that 1.6%, i still remember what we were quoting this thing as .5%, less than that, in the throes of last march at the worst of the pandemic. but it has backed up, and the fact of the matter is you've got a little bit of competition. i stress a little bit in the face of good economic news. sephora, the latest retailer to say we are expanding things. i think, maybe my producer could correct me, they're big into beauty products, stuff like that, right? they're another company that says they're going to do. this in the meantime, there is some out of this world good news to report. the stunning images we are getting back from the surface of mars, more than a few of you that are walloped in the market are open to that idea of going to mars yourself to get away from it all. after this. ♪ in other words, baby, kiss me

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stocks continue to swoon amid ironically good economic news. more on that in just a second. the other good news regarding red is what we're getting from the red planet. i'm talking about mars if p. new images from perseverance that are very, very timely from the surface of the martian planet here, and it's looking all the more appealing to those who want to leave this planet and their losses behind. and all of this at a time when space exploration is being doubled and triple up here, every billionaire worth his or her salt is expanding on this commitment including what we're seeing right now out of elon musk and spacex to eventually get, you know, a rocket up there with a whole civilian crew. they have a who's who cast of judges deciding who will get that final seat, and one of them is jon taffer, the "bar rescue" host, the podcast host, you name it, he's involved in everything here. so if you want to get an edge

and maybe get a seat on that rocket, jon's the guy you talk to. [laughter] we'll see what he's going to be looking at. jon, it's great to see you. this is quite an honor, i think, for you to be in this elite group of judges here. how did that happen? please tell me. >> well, it sure is an honor. jaredize ackman and i are good -- jared isaacman and i are friends, and when jared put these judges together, i'm honored that he thought of me and chose me. it's an incredible opportunity, neil. we're not only raising $200 million for st. jude's children's hospital, but the way this has been put together, it's really inspiring. one seat is dedicated to leadership, which is jared's. the second seat is st. jude's seat, and that's dedicated to hope. the third seat is dedicated to generosity, giving and a spirit of giving, and the fourth seat is designated to prosperity.

and that forty seat is -- fourth seat is the seat that we're all judging to put that civilian in space. anybody can participate in it, neil, which is very exciting. anybody who's excited about being a entrepreneur or going to space should take advantage of this. neil: did you think about it for yourself, jon? [laughter] it's tempting. >> i must say, when jared called me and asked me to do this, for a couple of seconds in that conversation i thought possibly he was going to say are you going to come with me, jon. but, no, i was concern. [laughter] what an honor, neil, to be able to do this -- neil: absolutely. >> and they're going to be up there for four days. so it's a serious flight. neil to put it mildingly. i was personally going to volunteer charlie gasparino to go, but we haven't heard back yet. if you need an inside tip the,

i'd go with gaspo. your thought, we're coming out now in this country more restaurants are opening, capacity increasing. it looks like that trend will remain a friend, or is it too little, too late for you and a lot of your efforts to help a lot of i small business ores, small restaurants, you know, make a go of it? >> i don't think it's too little, too late. we thought we might see 50% losses of independent restaurants. we're sitting closer at 35%, maybe 38 in some areas. so the numbers at the edge of this are appearing a little better than we had all feared. that's good news. and the numbers are going up. restaurants are starting to get more stabilized. clearly, our hospitalization numbers are down, which is good. at the moment i see everything trending pretty well. i'm concerned about the impact of taxes, about the impact of minimum wage. so as an industry now we're thinking, wow, we're going to

get back on our legs again, and now we're going to have these additional hurdles thrown at us. we're not an industry of strength right now, and i would plead to any type of tax the changes or payrolling changes that, consider that and have them come in on a plateau basis or some type of incremental basis because this industry can't take another hit right now. neil: to put it mildly. jon, thank you again. congratulations. you know, i think you're a very effective judge. who knows a little more about capitalism than giving -- and giving back than you do. that's how that process goes. jon taffer. meanwhile, jonathan hunt following a fascinating story in l.a. considering lady gaga and her kidnapped dogs. this is bizarre. jonathan, what's going on? >> reporter: well, last night just before 10 p.m., neil, lady gaga's dog walker, longtime dog

walker, a 30 -year-old young man by the name of ryan fibber, was -- fisher, was out walking her three friend the. bulldogs. he was approached by at least one person and shot four times, we believe, in the chest. he is currently, according to the police, in critical condition. and two of lady gaga's french bulldogs were taken by the assailants. the two who were taken. , and lady gaga has three in total, the two taken were gustavo and cogi, they are the white and brown bulldogs. you saw in that picture a black french bulldog as well. that is miss asia. miss asia, apparently, ran away. was then found by the police, and you see her wrapped in a blanket and being put into the back of a police vehicle. but the other two french bulldogs are still missing. by the way, you can sell a french bulldog for thousands of dollars, and that may have been the reason for this robbery here. the profit that can be made. they can go for up to $10,000,

apparently, in certain situations. lady gaga now who, by the way, is in rome shooting a movie at the moment, she is said to be distraught, but she has offered, wait for it, neil, a $500,000 reward for the safe return of gustavo and cogi. the man, the dog walker who was shot, by the way, again, police tell us -- there are some conflicting reports, but police told us just a short time ago that he remains in critical condition. this area of west hollywood, by the way, neil, i live fairly near it, and i can tell you it's been the scene of a real rise in street crime recently. of there was a spate of robberies, armed robberies just about a couple of weeks ago, seven in a row i think it was, where the robbers were targeting people wearing rolexs and other expensive jewelriment happening in broad daylight. and in one of those, we actually saw security camera video of two

men jumping out of cars, performing something of a beatdown on a guy, taking his rolex. they were driving, by the way, a white sedan. white sedan being looked for in connection with this case now. that is not to say there's any connection at all, but as far as we know the cops never caught the people who were involved in those jewelry robberies, and now we get this robbery or dog napping of two of lady gaga's much-loved french bulldogs, $500,000 reward. neil: that's amazing. so, jonathan, just to be clear, whoever attacked this dog walker -- i hope he's going to be okay -- they had no idea that these were lady gaga's dogs? >> reporter: actually, we don't know that. yeah, we don't know that, neil. they may or may not have known. this was a longtime dog walker of lady gaga's french bulldogs, so it could the have been known within the area that this person often had lady gaga's dogs. you would assume that those dogs themselves were something of a

celebrity item in that neighborhood. so they could have known, it may be that it was purely a crime of opportunity. we don't know for a fact which of those is true at the moment, neil. neil: i hope everything works out and that the dog walker -- i mean, that's ridiculous. shot four times just to get the dogs. i don't get it. we live in strange times, jonathan. he nicely summed that up. that's ridiculous, right? all right. keeping you alert on what's happening on wall street right now with the stock selloff right here, we're learning a little bit more about what may have prompted the backup in interest rates. there was a lousy receptioned today for about $62 billion worth of 7-year notes that were coming up for bidding. and it was sloppy, the rates, all over the map. they had to keep ratcheting up the yield to get people entered in that. that might have been a preview of coming attractions here, but the backdrop is an improving

economy that has many convinced that things are picking up steam and rates are simply too low to reflect that reality. we'll have more after this. ♪ a little bit dangerous, but, baby, that's how i want it. ♪ a little less conversation and a little more of my body. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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♪ >> welcome back to cavuto coast to coast, i'm blake burman at the white house where we should be hearing from president biden in about an hour or so. his administration is going to commemorate the 50 millionth vaccine dose administered during the biden administration. we've already seen a push from vice president harris who went to a pharmacy in a minority community here in washington trying to push the message that the vaccine is safe and should be taken while also driving home the point that, yes, there indeed may be some short-lived

side effects. watch this here. >> the first day that i got the shot i felt fine. the next day i realized i needed to take it a little slow, and then the day after it was like nothing ever happened, but i knew i was vaccinated. >> reporter: part of the messaging from the white house today. we are expecting, of course, the fda to approve the johnson and johnson one-dose vaccine potentially as soon as tomorrow. that is 72% effective compared to the more than 90% effective rate for the other two vaccines currently on the market pfizer and moderna. now, neil, we heard from dr. anthony fauci today and he was asked, well, if individuals are searching for a vaccine and they say, well, maybe i want to wait for the pfizer and moderna vaccine, should i wait to take that and not get the johnson & johnson vaccine? and the message from dr. fauci today was if you're able to get a vaccine, take that vaccine. neil? neil: all right, blake. good catching up with you, my

friend. blake burman at the white house. dr. matt mccarthy joins us, cornell associate professor of medicine. doctor, what do you and how do you advise patients on this? we now have, you know, riches here when it comes to potential vaccines. do you err in favor of one over the other? >> no, i don't. we've got really four strong contenders that are going to be out this spring, the two m-rna vaccines but also johnson & johnson and novavax. and we've seen these vaccines protect against the endpoints that really matter, like death, like severe disease. if you have the opportunity to get one of these vaccines, you should take it. i feel strongly about that. this is a miracle, that we've got this, that we gambled heavily on targeting the spiked protein. that gamble paid off, and these vaccines are the way we're going to get out of this mess. absolutely, take one of the vaccines when it's offered to you. neil: a lot of people still get

inconsistent guidance from their state, doctor, about who can take it and when. some states put teachers at the front of the line, others health care workers which seems reasonable and obvious. still others, you know, older patients. but even there cutting the line either at 60 or 62 or as high as 75. just what i'm saying is there's no consistent policy. doesn't that complicate getting vaccines into arms? enter it -- >> it does. you know, i think the goal here is to let the states at the local level have a lot of control over how they're going to administer vaccines, and by delegating you're creating confusion. the way i think about this is it's pretty simple. you want to give the vaccines to the people who are at the highest risk from dying because these vaccines protect against that. and that means looking at the oldest populations first. and, you know, there's nuances to how you want to do that, and

i think one of the increasing discussions is where do teachers fall into this. if you're a young, healthy teacher and you want to be vaccinated before you get into the classroom, does that take priority over a nursing home patient. and, you know, these things become very complicated very quickly. the good news is that even as we hear about all these new variants, our vaccines are effective. they have not been compromised. so what i spend a lot of time doing is giving guidance to people on the fence who say i don't know if i want one of these vaccines. i'm hearing about the variants, i'm hearing johnson & johnson may not be as effective as pfizer and moderna. i disagree with some of that, i think there's been fear mongering. the next step is seeing exactly how well these vaccines work against all the variants that we're going to be dealing with for a while. ultimately, it was the delegation to the local level that has created in this confusion and, hopefully, that message is going to get cleaned up over the next few weeks. neil: doctor, thank you very

much for taking the time. i know you're quite busy with all this. we do appreciate it. we're talking about that development i want to share with you right now in the united kingdom, that it's prepared to lower its covid alert level from the highest to the next highest. i don't know how many they have, they just lowered that alert level on indications from boris johnson who's very optimistic that her majesty's kingdom will have a wonderful spring. we hope so. stay with us. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward,

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♪♪ smooth driving pays off you never been in better hands allstate click or call for a quote today ♪ ♪ neil: remember earmarks? they could be back. rich edson has more from washington on why that could be the case. hey, rich. >> reporter: good afternoon, neil. they were banned in 2011, and now democrats are talking about bringing them back. yes, they're earmarks, and there are a number of republicans who say they oppose bringing them back. >> nancy pelosi is going to get

her tunnel to nowhere for mass transit in san francisco, and chuck schumer is going to get his bridge to nowhere from new york to canada. >> reporter: earmarks, congressionally-directed spending, whatever they're called, they're defined as a specific spending project or tax proposal that benefits a particular state, city or congressional district. opponents say they lead to runaway and wasteful spending. democrats say they'll institute reforms and push transparency though they have yet to release their specific proposal. though by banning earmarks, some lawmakers and republicans say congress has ceded its constitutional spending power to the executive branch. >> somebody's been deciding how to spend all this money the last ten years, it just hasn't been the people that decided from the time the constitution was written until about a decade ago. >> reporter: now, in a divided government proponents say earmarks can help break gridlock.

democrats are moving towards allowing earmarks on a large scale infrastructure bill that they're planning in the spring. that would be on top of earmarks for the regular government funding bill. take a look though, neil, at when the government stopped specifying these earmarks back in 2011, the united states has added about $13 trillion to the national debt since earmarks went away. neil? pleasure. neil: that's a very interesting statistic. so it actually got worse over a to vision that was meant to make it better. rich edson, great reporting on all of that. so the selloff, it seems to be a little better. i generally try not to follow this tick for tick. there's a battle going on here. you might not hear it or feel it, maybe in some of these minus signs and arrows you're seeing it, but it's a battle between two different views of the world, one that says things are picking up steam and the other saying, we're worried because things are picking up steam. ♪ might as well jump.

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♪ neil: you know, just when i get nervous i might be losing my purview as the dullest anchor on

cable tv, i like to grab a chart to reinforce the point that you cannot outnerd me. and this chart shows, in all seriousness, it shows the gap, if you will, between a 10-year treasury note and the dividend yield on the s&p 500. and as you can see, that has narrowed. in other words, there was really no competition for stocks, so people stayed in stocks because what are you going to do, get 0% on your money for treasuries? now that has changed because they passed a little bit today. charlie brady, i call him the nostradamus of all things money, he was reminding me the last time we saw this goes back to 2016. and whether this has staying power is anyone's guess. in other words, this could unwind and all of a sudden the yield will just slip and all of a sudden the s&p 500 will look like a more attractive draw. but the fact that it's happening

means there's competition there and could that hurt stock investors. ironically, the real backdrop for this is because the economy's doing to well. a lot of things are coming to light here including a lot of companies making some very, very aggressive plans to expand like sephora and all these other retailers, some hiking their minimum wage, costco across the board $16 an hour. that's sort of just part of this whole story. liz peek is here, john lonski is here. liz, does this worry you, and worry you in a good way, i mean, that now stocks could have some competition? what do you think? >> neil, i think this is more of a technical indicator than something that really talks about competition between stocks and bonds. very few people, certainly not big trust funds or endowments or whatever, buy stocks for a 1.37% yield. they're hoping to do much better with companies that are growing

5, 10, 15% a year, and that's what makes equities over the long term much more attractive than bonds. look, a lot of institutional investors require yields of 6-10% to cover their expected outflows. so again, i think this is a technical thing. i think it comes on the heels of a lot of indicators that, in fact, prices are moving up, import prices, producer prices, etc. so it's not nothing, but i don't think it's particularly significant competition, as you put it. neil: you know, john, the markets as long as i can remember since the $2 trillion stimulus plan was first kicked around by then-candidate joe biden, now priding, they loved it because they loved stimulus. the bigger the better. now a lot of people think with the economy improving to the degree it might be improving, maybe you don't need it that big and they're at loggerheads to say whether this is good or bad

news on that front. what do you think? john, we're having problems with your sound. i apologize. hopefully, we can fix that. liz, i'll ask you the same question. this might imperil stimulus -- maybe that's a good thing, it doesn't need to be as big -- or it could be -- >> i'm back. neil: john, you're good. so you heard that. what do you think? >> yeah. i think the market's concerned that all the stimulus is too much of ad good thing. you know, you're talking about how the economy is doing. well, we have the, what is it, the gdp now mental methodology r estimate of economic supply by the atlanta fed. believe it or not, given available evidence the atlanta fed's gdp now model suggests that first quarter real gdp will be at 9.6%? that's incredible. we had an upward revision of

fourth quarter real gdp growth. why in the world do we need an additional $1.9 trillion of fiscal stimulus? on top of this rapid money? we're seeing the fastest growth for the money supply since the second world war. neil: that's interesting. liz, it might, if it stays around long enough -- you don't seem to be in the camp this is a game-changer here, but let's say that widens a little bit and let's say interest rates continue backing up and the dividend yield really doesn't change that much. at what point, and you're a pretty canny reader of these markets, does that get to be -- especially for who those who hae seen huge gains in their portfolio that don't want to see it fritteredded away? >> i think we're talking about a sea change in terms of what's directing the market of we've

had over the last several years the game has been don't fight the fed. what we're really talking about when we talk about inflation increasing or interest rates beginning to rise, at some point powell has to step in and begin hiking rates if, in fact, inflation looks like a threat. remember, janet yellen did that in 2015 beginning when the economy wasn't even advancing very strongly and almost put the economy into a stall. that's what really is concerning people. we've had incredibly loose -- and john said huge monetary policy inflow, fed's balance sheet is up 80% year-over-year, and now we're going to have a huge fiscal push in addition. it's too much probably, and i think there will be some inflationary pressures, and i think it means investors have to look at different kinds of stocks and basically kind of get away from the idea that the punch bowl is always going to be

there. because at some point it will not be. neil: all right. final word on that, liz. john lonski, thank you very much. just to explain here, the federal reserve can control short-term interest rates, it can influence longer-term rates. but when you look to 5-year, 10-year notes, the markets are forecasting that. that is the market sentiment that things are picking up, and no matter what the federal reserve does to buy other things, it can't control that aspect. after this. ♪ ♪ are pros. they know exactly which parking lots have the strongest signal. i just don't have the bandwidth for more business. seriously, i don't have the bandwidth. . .

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♪. neil: all right. we are off our worst levels of the day. this has not been a picnic. it will be a bumpy ride i assume for the next couple hours. charles payne to take you through all of that. hey, charles. charles: neil, we'll try to smooth it out a little bit, thanks, my friend. good afternoon, everyone, i'm charles payne. this is making money. the tug-of-war continues today. the mayors seem to have the upper hand. the there are several invest messages with all the gyrations. we'll definitely try to navigate them all. gamestop and other short stocks are the big story again for me today with another wild surge with a reminder to the powers, this retail revolution is just getting started. my take on all this is coming up. republicans are railing against the two trillion dollar stimulus package ahead of tomorrow's vote, guess what, it