that was quite a show. we had a cage fight with susan over the idiot going, best day of his life my bus conducting experiences. what a show. hey neil, can you top that? neil: probably not, not with the bus thing but i have something new about everyday and it's both exciting and a little unnerving so thank you for that. [laughter] have a wonderful weekend. thank you very much. let's look at this, done anything to hurt this market, 88 points, a lot of good factors going on today. i don't believe we've seen week like we have of such good economic news, 815 year high, 19%.

close to 3%. we've got news at retail, 9.8%. pfizer for the vaccine is very strong and johnson & johnson from the vaccine market and the other guys on the other vaccines to get out. record low jobless claims at least for the pandemic, 576,000. i can go on and we will with some of our key guests but we got s&p looking like it's record territory and forth weekly advance in a row. the nasdaq holding its own, the dow itself over 34000. when you think about that, the crime to 40000 would only be about 70% jump from here, that is very doable. possible as soon as this year. let's get right to it.

the one who's making the prediction, gary capitol management, fox news contributor. jack mcintyre as well. and carol will. not lost but leased or leased but last, happy to have her here. [laughter] let's get your take on what's happening. when we have these milestones, obviously each leap is a little smaller so 17%, you're at 40000. >> let's work back a little bit, november 9 a vaccine, i call it the vaccine trade, the virus on the downside accelerated to the upside as well is opening things up of the economy, we thought get a move in the market, it's been real. when i look at the dow 30, you

have a bunch of names now that looked to be breaking out of new daily highs in the usually more to go. surprised how quickly got to 35 which was my first number but i don't see why we can't go to 40 because the economy -- i would call it strong and you still have central banks printing to $50 billion a month 0% at negative and it fuels it all, it's a cornell of just energy for markets right now so i think there's always to go. neil: thank you, we are waiting, i don't believe jack showed up yet but i do have carol here. apologize for the confusion here. but there's another survey, sometimes act as we feel a survey shows americans feeling that they had since the pandemic began, sometimes it translates

into more spending, sometimes just more stock. often times it translates aggressive vacation plans and bookings and we've seen a month straight now a better than 1 million airport security lines each day every day what you make of that? >> americans are consuming and obviously they put on pause to a large extent during the pandemic, we saw an increase in spending rates until this last stimulus that okay, i'm done, i'm going back and spending again so there is definitely a ton of pent-up demand and somebody i knew at the airport at o'hare the other day said it was packed, 90% was recreational travel, not the typical business travel so it is the consumer

component definitely taking off and projections were on the street, the second quarter comes, so easy to be potentially could be way higher than anybody expects. >> very good to have you, jack. something interesting about the games, obviously you're going to have roaming figures, i'm sure they take that in the look at estimates but the report of the big one, things are robust, do you expect it to continue? >> going to be a little more challenging for them i think because these guys did a great job on trading front, underwriting security so those things are not necessarily repeatedly. the loan creation which we need to see and i'm not seeing that

yet but i think it's going to be a little more challenging to replicate what they did in q1. in q2, we should see a continuation, a little more challenging so. neil: jack, while i still have you, we were talking about the dow over 34000 zeroing and 35000 and the idea that the 40000 statistically isn't that severe. 17% increase on what we've done that sometimes in half a year. what you make of the possibility we keep steamrolling to that? >> it is honestly in the realm of possibilities. what we need to get that? i think we need to see a continued uptick in economic activity but the key is, i can't be super inflationary because his if it is, it's going to get the fed to pull back and we need

incredibly easy financial conditions to get us to that level. we are going to get there, it's just the question of is it going to be one year or two years or this year? neil: are you worried about inflation? you wouldn't see it today with all this strong economic news. under 1.6%, what you make of that threat? is it real or a worry to you? >> i worry about everything, on a day-to-day basis but i will tell you as long as yield cooperates, i am okay but leave no doubt, there is inflation. look at prices of lumber and corn and anything you drop on the foot and it hurts going up in price so there's already inflation whether it turns into what we call inflation, had to knock it out, i do believe the

tenure would probably be four or 5% if that occurred so i'm not seeing that inflation yet. neil: carol, when i look at the groups and sectors advancing for the time being, it's been on gold, it certainly sounds of late along with stocks depending on the time of day, the big crimes and coin base, instead of more than holding their own, can it continue in unison with kind of event you look for that could separate them? >> you have it coming out today saying the economy is going to rip higher but we are still going to be obviously yields have settled down but i think the bottom market is going to increase and when that, yields excuse me are going to increase again and when that happens,

you're going to start getting investors paying more attention to things like evaluation which obviously we haven't spent a lot of time on in the past couple of years but capitol i think with inflation, supply chain costs are increasing, it leaves this middle sector, there is still tightness in the market the likelihood get wage pressure, i'm not sure how much these companies are going to be able to pass on to consumers so as sometimes i think there will be evaluation discussion in some of these names that continue to do well but we will keep an eye on it because right now everybody is settled down. neil: i hear you. jack, i think you follow banks closely from jp morgan chase, city bank and all good news. they've eased up on their loan preserves here, bring up some cash because rainy day they were prepared for in the high of the pandemic never came, obviously

failed on their loans but not nearly what they thought so are they too giddy? by taking a lot of the cash they've been piling up, are they signaling too much they don't have enough in reserve just in case everything hits the fan? are not saying a meltdown but are they getting past the potential graveyard? >> it is interesting, trick question. everybody has probably had a little too much cash. we've got both motivated by fiscal policy now, we need organic but yes, i think banks are in great shape compared to other banks across the planet. it might be a riskier but return seeking avenue but not there yet, i don't see that in terms of what the banks are doing.

neil: real quickly, i want your thoughts on whether the market might bring and something else the infrastructure package doesn't happen tax hikes along with it do not happen or at least soon, what you think? >> if we don't get tax hikes, that's good news, keeping money out of the hands of them and government is good news but i think that get done, i believe the market is on the fact that we are opening up, people are spending more continued gargantuan easy money from central banks, he mentioned banks, they have the is used job in the world, 0% and lend out the credit card, 20%. i wish i were in that business right now so i think momentum speech on mental. you talk about markets going higher, we've got some more to

go but i do believe we are in the latter stages and down the road we will talk more about that. neil: i look forward to that. gary and carol, jack, thank you very much. we were touching on this infrastructure package, i know gary thinks otherwise, it's a little dicey here especially upon news that at least 19 democrats have come together to force an issue, we are no votes on infrastructure unless you get rid of this state and local tax deduction thing. that doesn't look inevitable so by definition, the infrastructure thing never happened. how likely is that? ♪♪ ♪♪

not so fast on infrastructure, i'm not talking republicans, at this moment it be hard-pressed to find a single representative on the right side of the aisle to vote for this. at least 19 democrats now who

indicated we do not go for this infrastructure package if it doesn't include litigation of state and local taxes kept at $10000 right now, particularly new york, it's a huge burden on their constituents and not just which constituent so that's automatically 19 no votes which would torpedo make it dead on arrival pretty much anywhere else. all and all the developments and how far it's getting going. >> this is so interesting, but talk about this in practice, it impacted blue state the most. that's where the taxes are generally higher and specifically upper and middle class to wealthy residents in those days. they were the ones who benefited from the higher deduction previously enjoyed. if the $10000 cap were to be listed, more than half of the

benefits to household making $1 million or more annually, according to the nonpartisan joint committee on taxation. as the new infrastructure bill debate rages on, lawmakers are using cap as a bargaining chip. they want to see it put away so they are holding out on infrastructure. congressman josh of new jersey says middle-class families are taxed twice and the extra funds from the blue state goes to fund these so-called mature red states where taxes are lower but also incomes are lower there, too. how much money are we talking about? $80 billion and this is what the white house has to say about. >> we understand, there are number of members who feel strongly about the elimination with calculators out, it's not a revenue raiser so it would add costs significantly to a

package. there has to be a discussion how it would be paid for. >> the little calculators. it seems counterintuitive, the loss might have been his voters even though they were blue states but it was believed he was punishing blue states themselves and that was more of the issue. i to everything we are seeing, troubles from the pandemic as well and we do know blue state exodus right now has been real. neil: all right, thank you very much for that. appreciate it. have a great weekend. what does this mean for the infrastructure package? already a heavy lift. let's go to senator shelley moore capito of west virginia. good to have you. >> thank you. good afternoon. neil: taxes, real estate aren't nearly as high so maybe it's not quite the worry for your constituents as it is for these

19 or so blue state, mostly new york making this, how do you feel about that? >> i think obviously i voted for the jobs act in 2017 which did the deduction which could have a desired effect. the states need to look at their own internal structures. neil: all right, we had some tech issues there. i hope to get her back again but these 19 congressman are all democrats all think as things stand right now, if you don't get rid of that provision we are not voting for infrastructure and it doesn't look like the administration is going to move forward at least on that so it's going to be a push and pull shoving match. we'll keep track of that and hope to get her back. stay with us.

have you had your vaccine yet? is might at least get you a little anxious because the pfizer ceo saying a third follow-up dose might be in order, a little too soon to tell but jonathan has been looking into that and what it would mean. jonathan. >> a lot of news on the vaccine front. one is the "wall street journal" reported johnson & johnson privately reached out to its competitors to join them and studying the risk of blood clots. j&j vaccine remains on pause in the u.s., regulators investigate whether to link to a rare stroke like condition reported in less than one out of every 1 million recipients. astrazeneca whose vaccine raised similar concerns in europe was the only company expressing interest in joining while moderna and father declined because the potential complication not appeared among recipients of their vaccine.

the cdc independent advisors will reconvene next friday to discuss the j&j vaccine. the ceo of pfizer told a cbs health forum individuals low will likely require a booster shot, perhaps six to 12 months after the second dose followed by annual covid vaccinations doctor anthony fauci says research is underway in the u.s. house committee hearing yesterday the he engaged in a heated exchange with ohio robert jim jordan over the criteria for reopening the country. listen. >> americans liberties have been threatened, assaulted. there liberties have. >> i don't look at it as a liberty thing. >> well that's obvious. >> of the public health thing. >> health officials continued advice states not to let up on mitigation efforts. they say a combination of

relaxed guidelines and new variants are driving up daily case numbers and deaths have also been increasing for three days in a row. neil: take you very much for that. doctor roger kline, the expert institute policy advisor, doctor, great to have you back. what you make of this recommendation, maybe a booster shot within 12 months, there's talk as well of maybe treating it as we treat the flu, and annual vaccine shot, what you make of all that? >> we don't know yet and that is the real answer. up to six months the vaccines look very effective. we don't know for sure whether or not the buyers will hang around. openly it won't but if it does, we are going to maintain a level of residual immunity and that's going to happen.

the real question is, will it mutate and change so that we need to continually get shots that will compensate for the changes in the virus? just like we have to with the flu. clearly doesn't mutate as quickly as blue but it does change as we have seen. neil: how do you think it's perceiving? right now, one in three americans already is at least on one dose on the vaccine. and a lot of states it's up to half or more of their residence how do you think it's progressing? >> i have maybe, i think it's going well in the sense that over 80% of people to my knowledge, over 65 have had at least one dose so i've always advocated that we target those who are most vulnerable and

serious consequences about the elderly and other vulnerable individuals and their clearly receptive to the vaccine and a large way and we are getting to them so i think we are doing well on that. as far as the rest of the population as we go down in age, there becomes probably less receptivity based upon individual risk, i'm not sure that's actually as bad as maybe some things, people will probably get convicted at least in the short duration eventually if they're not vaccinated but most will be seriously harmed, particularly young healthy people. neil: a lot of it comes up, the concern of the temporary pause in the j&j vaccine, blood clotting issues that have popped up, now we are told the cdc won't even resume the investigation into this or at least panel discussion until next week sometime so at least

that long before they could possibly get it back out there, is that a worry to you? the angst it's creating in the people not keen on vaccines anyway and the concern we will have available supply, maybe others will make up for that? what are your thoughts? >> as far as risk or concern people are not going to be receptive to the vaccine, i think you're balancing the consideration that lack of trust and authorities to investigate or suppress problems with the vaccine and that perception among the public, i think the most best move both their confidence saying we take it seriously. you balance that with the idea that maybe your giving heightened attention. there's so much communication through alternative channels, social media etc., i don't have

strong feelings either way i think it's a reasonable thing to reassure the public these potential complications, and again, they are potential and rare even if real, we are looking into that and that we want to understand, i think that's very reasonable to do. your second question. neil: do have an absence of the available supply? either indicated it will ramp up production, it will be in terms of the number of vaccines out there so are you not worried about that? >> yes sorry, first of all, johnson & johnson has manufacturing issues and they are a relatively small proportion of the vaccines so i

guess i maybe not as worried as long as we continue to vaccinate those at most risk, the people who are elderly and vulnerable, our hospitalizations and serious parameters, the serious consequences of the disease are going to diminish and ultimately go away so i guess i'm a little less concerned maybe been some only because it hasn't taken hold in a big way, it's still a small proportion of available vaccine. i think what excites people is one-shot and makes it easier for people to get, maybe especially young people or maybe homeless people or others it's going to be hard to get them follow-up for second shot and i think people are concerned and i think that is legitimate. neil: all right, great catching

up with you, my friend. thanks for your expertise. i think we have senator shelley moore capito back with us from west virginia. apologize for the audio problem but i was just talking about this vaccine progress, even with the johnson & johnson vaccine, one in three americans, a little more with had at least one dose of the vaccine, do you think it is still a green light for the country to return to normal, whatever that is? >> i think the confidence, when they get the second shot or even the johnson & johnson shot in measurable in terms of the confidence to reopen i think certainly out here in west virginia where we have been very good at deploying the vaccine

and we are proud of that but i do think you see the numbers tsa taking up in terms of people traveling, you see businesses reopening and consumer spending going up and i think it's an indicator people feel more confident so even though i'm sorry because i think it does show the folks who maybe might have been hesitant about a vaccination and it concerns me greatly, i still think we are on the trajectory to have a good summer, a lot more openness and meetings and all of those kinds of things. neil: giving the booming economic numbers we've had, a lot of it courtesy the great reopening of the country but we got even more strong data today, almost 3%, 19% i should say permits 3% continues dramatic improvement, retail sales of almost 10% so it does beg the question to whether we need the government to keep going to

folks, do we need that stimulus now? >> i think it's a valuable question, it was supposed to be an emergency stimulus we see the spending extends all the way to 2028 and i think it concerns us. i think we should look at that 1.9 trillion that came out and maybe look at as it a redeployment and infrastructure. other folks were talking about it, i think it is a way to create the jobs and then have modernization of infrastructure we need but at the same time, i do think small businesses can't reopen, there still restaurants and schools that still have great uncertainties so we need to focus on that as we move here in the short term and make sure we're not forgetting there's a lot of hesitancy in this, we just want to see as keep moving forward. neil: very good seeing you again, thank you for taking the time.

shelley moore capito on all these fast-moving development. we are finally getting a response from russia on the sanctions the biden administration is dropping down on them were the biden administration on the 2020 election. the russian foreign ministry is saying if you're going to expel our diplomats from your country, we will expel your diplomats in our country, proportional to whatever the united states doing. we don't know any further developments here. the biden administration cracking down on a lot of investments the russians had here, the markets and investment managers can control here and you might indirectly be buying them here, that cut to the core and got their goat here. the russians have other buttons they can push, the least of which there will in those countries, opec members but the nations have a lot of oil

including russia and whether they might try to tighten that supply, too soon to say. more when we come back. ♪♪

we heard ten shots in the front of the entrance possibly from inside. >> a female, she still shooting, she does not have a mutual. >> a person shot on the security in front of the building. neil: in light of the indianapolis shooting right now, police are still trying to identify the killer and what motivated to kill and then turned the gun on himself. so much we don't know, trying to put the pieces together. laura. >> we've heard from police a couple of times throughout morning going back as early as

about 2:00 a.m. at the scene and as you said, they still cannot set by the gunman. what of people wondering, was this man a fedex employee, former employee? related to someone inside? we still don't know. they're still working on a motive. i people wanted, eight people dead. another update a short while ago. >> the suspect came to the facility and when he came there, he got out of his car and pretty quickly started random shooting outside the facility no confrontation with anyone, no disturbance, no argument, he just appeared to randomly start shooting. >> police say four of the eight victims were found outside the fedex facility and the other for were found inside. investigators, the shooting lasted only minutes and the

gunman shot and killed himself either before or as officers arrived on scene. now comes the unimaginable task of identifying the victims. family members of those lost have still not been told if their loved ones were among the dead because of the 90 identification process underway. other family members at a holding area at a nearby hotel have either been united or told their loved ones are okay. >> they were able to give me the other building, i am so thankful, my heart goes out to these people affected. [sobbing] scary and i want everybody to just love each other. >> investigators say there were moments of heroism by first responders and fedex employees out there helping fellow

coworkers as all of it was going on. president biden weighing in a short while ago saying last week he called on the justice department to better protect americans from gun violence adding too many americans are dying every day from gun violence, it stains our character in pierce's the soul of our nation. we continue to wait for more word from the scene. back to you. neil: thank you very much for that. i want to go to the former fbi director, there's so much we don't know but apparently it's already a sense of this, all within a span of a little more than two minutes, what you make of this? >> first of all, fedex is a excellent security program, i've worked with them, most are deputized, deputy sheriffs so they are law enforcement officers. the second thing i think is important, this guy didn't just wake up today or yesterday say i'm going to go kill somebody, he got a history of violence, i

guarantee. i'll buy you dinner and a good steak, somebody knows this guy, a history of violence, threatening violence and we don't deal with in our country, we deal with the after math, but if i these people, alert the police there may be a judicial process to keep the individual firearms, it's happening way too often, we have to get ready, there has to be up plan at every facility. your facility should have a plan because it's going to be as significant epidemic in our country and we need to get ready for it. neil: i'm just wondering, the fact that the killer has not been identified, usually by this time we get word about and we have it, what you think is going on? >> i think it came with no id on

him. but they will take it aired out. dna, there's got to be a car or vehicle there, i doubt he took a taxi, there is something that will connect him to his identity. probably today or tomorrow. neil: like a lot of companies, factories do not allow phones during shifts, i don't know whether that would have made a different because it all happened so quickly but what you make of that, such as these policies, should that change should something like this happen again? >> i teach active shooter, we do training for companies and we consider the cell phone of security. i know they are concerned about people texting or chatting and not doing their work but that is really important, you can get a

lot of intelligence from phone calls, text messages, the guy helped the police, if people -- don't take away their lifeline. that's what a cell phone is. i strongly support the idea that employees should have cell phones available to them because those facilities are huge and they may not even hear the shooting going on, they need a way they can contact people and put out alerts throughout the complex and i think probably fedex did that, they do a good job but i don't like the idea of no cell phones, not at all. neil: very much. former fbi deputy assistant director, we will keep you posted on further developments as we get them. stick with us.

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all right, it started out a few years ago, sort of be easier more fun smoother alternatives, crypto currency like bit coin, it is now a 40 billion-dollar evaluation, four 100% this week,

bit coin itself but what started as a large, the crypto currency is anything but bubble that some have, all of this has gone a bit too extreme but try telling that to danielle, miami dade commissioner, a resident in bit coin, i don't know whether she would be recommend dose when bush was kind enough to join us. what you make of this and why are you not allowing residents trade in bit coin, pay taxes and bit coin? >> thank you for having me. to be there, when i brought to the board was a resolution to look into it as a potential option. what i would like to do is create a task force to look into the viability and feasibility of allowing residents pay for fees and services in bit coin. bit coin has been around a while, it's an asset and method and form of payment but a

versioning industry and we are open for innovation here we want to welcome innovative companies and create an environment as attractive to them as possible. neil: obviously you're looking into it but the one thing about going even though not near as crazy as they used to be but it is really crazy to whatever you are doing to pay taxes and the money might not be the same as the afternoon, how do you handle something like that? >> the volatility certainly one of the risks associated but many aren't agreeing to fix outweigh the risks. large corporations are starting to accept the form of payment, at&t, home depot and many others and i believe this is the way of the future. miami-dade future of made up of

immigrants, entrepreneurs. we are accustomed to taking certain levels of risk to get it calculated and we want to be prepared for the future. we are always focused on today but always focused and looking at being prepared for tomorrow and i see crypto currency and bit coin being exactly in line with that. neil: i'm curious, what kind of reaction do you get when you said study this, let's look at this? >> that's exactly what i want to do, i want to be careful obviously because it's a big step for the county. other municipalities have passed similar legislation and state capitol in 2019 there was similar legislation passed regarding box chains and looking into it so i think the government should be proactive instead of reactive michael is to put together a task force, at least five years experience in finance, banking and crypto currency to look at miami-dade can be the forefront and a leader on this, it's an industry. we want to welcome events and

businesses we want to be the crypto county or capitol of the world this i believe is a very strong first step. neil: you heard of the number regulatory agencies that don't share your enthusiasm for this, some says so far as a potential dollar killer and disrupt international finance, they are keeping a close eye on it. they shut it down in sum, how would you feel about that? >> again, there are risks associated but crypto currency is not new, is currently a versioning industry that has a track record and stabilize quite a bit and i understand decentralized and not regulated but those are risks some find it to be incredible benefit and this is why i want to create a task force to look into the issue in a meaningful way. if the task force comes back to the work and says listen, it's way too risky, we accept the recommendations and the further pivot and figure out what is

next but right now i think it's high time for the county miami-dade to look into it and see whether or not creeds economic development and opportunity here in miami-dade county. neil: thank you very much, keep us updated on how this is all moving along. i do want to let you know the foreign ministry is not letting sanctions on the biden administration go and answered. now it will kick out u.s. month as the u.s. kicks out russian diplomats and sanctions they worn could spiral. more after this. ♪♪ ...

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yeah. if you ride, you get it. yeah, they will. geico motorcycle. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. neil: and the winner is on the first foreign leader to meet with president joe biden, the prime minister of japan, expected to arrive at the white house shortly. the two presidents, the president and the prime minister, i should say, will outline their plans to work together, particularly counter to china and respond to other developments that have been occurring now involving russia, and a tit-for-tat in sanctions that now have gripped the world 's attention. we are all over that first with blake burman at the white house on where things stand for the big pow wow the first for this president with a foreign leader in-person and of course all that russia stuff as well. blake? reporter: there have been phone calls that president biden has

had with world leader, neil, video conferences but you're right this is the very first face to face meeting here at the white house between the president and a foreign leader that of course the japanese prime minister set to arrive a host of foreign policy items potentially on the plate there, for most, among them, china. we do expect the two to be talking about hong kong, taiwan, human rights. we do know leading into this that the japanese will be announcing a $2 billion 5g cooperation partnership with the u.s. that is non-huawei, a big blow to china. here is what a senior om said, i do want to underscore, provoking china at the same time we're trying to send a clear signal that some of the steps that china is taking is the mission of maintaining peace and stability. on a much different matter, another issue that could be raised as well, the upcoming olympics, just three months until the games are to be held

in tokyo, but the status right now, unclear due to the covid-19 pandemic. here was the press sec jen psaki when asked about it earlier this morning. >> she said, "we understand the careful considerations that the japanese government and the ioc are weighing as they prepare for the tokyo olympics this summer. the government of japan has stressed the public health remains the central priority as they plan to host the game. tokyo has assured us they will keep us in close contact with washington as their plans develop. that from psaki just a little while ago. neil of course we will also keep our eye on whether or not president biden and his japanese counterpart will talk about semiconductors, chips, as we know, there is a chip shortage in this country right now, and it is something that this administration has been focusing on. neil? neil: all right, blake burman, thank you very much for that update. getting ready to see the prime minister of japan, very shortly. you can see the honor guard just arriving there on the north port

ico entrance. let's go to jennifer griffin this latest we're getting on the tit-for-tat. we slapped sanctions on the russians and i guess today, jennifer, the russians are responding. reporter: that's right, neil. well this was by no means check mate, game over yesterday. we are getting word from russia about how the kremlin plans to respond to the new sanctions and the expulsion of 10 russian diplomats from here in the u.s.. the u.s. bam as adore was summoned to russia's foreign ministry and we're learning after a phone call with reporter s that russia's senior diplomat says that moscow will demand 10 u.s. diplomats will leave russia but in the same breath said putin is studying for a proposal for a summit between the two leaders this summer and russian official s added that moscow will publish soon a list of eight u.s. officials placed on a russian sanctions list and are looking at painful measures aimed at u.s. businesses operating in russia. the biden administration for the first time linked russia 's foreign intelligence

service to interference in u.s. elections going back to 2016, linked an august meeting between former trump campaign chairman pal manafort with already-sanctioned russian agent who received internal polling data from manafort via rick gates and now the u.s. government says provided that polling data in 2016 to the russian government. >> i was clear with president putin that we could have gone further, but i chose not to do so, i chose to be proportionatea te. if russia interferes with our democracy i'm prepared to take further actions to respond. it is my responsibility as president of the united states to do so. reporter: the u.s. sanctions that could hurt russia the most involve russia's sovreign debt, and are meant to harm russia's ability to regulation money by barring u.s. financial institutions from buying russian government bonds. now it's putin's move and with 40,000 troops on the border with ukraine, the pentagon worries he

may try to divert attention from the u.s. sanctions by invading his neighbor. neil? neil: oh, boy all right jennifer griffin thank you very very much for that. want to go to fill flynn whether this has had any effect on energy and energy related futures have you seen anything like that, phil? >> you know, we have seen in recent weeks, neil, more risk premium put into the oil market, something that we really haven't seen for a long time. i think there's more concerns about some of the policies coming out of the biden administration when it comes to russia, whether it comes to iran , and that's creating a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace. you know, right now, russia seem s to be saying that they're still on track to raise production modestly in may, that nothings really changed, but oil traders are looking at the increasing risk and they're taking notice. for example, we have more troops , russian troops on the border of ukraine than we

had since 2014 when they invaded and took over crimea and crimea of course is a major major pipeline area. ukraine, of course is also a major oil & gas pipeline area, and producer, and the problem with that, of course could have a major impact on the global market. we already know, of course the biden administration wants to put more sanctions on the north stream pipeline which is going to bring more natural gas from russia to europe, and they're pressuring our european partners to stand back from this deal because they don't want them more dependent on russia, but we know from the past what happened in 2014, vladimir putin is going to do what vladimir putin is going to do, and after a phone call with president obama, you know, who begged him not to march into the ukraine, he did so the next day, and oil traders have to keep an eye on this to see what happens next. neil: i'm curious too, as you've touched on his role as an opec

member, he's been very crafty at going ahead and getting others to cut supply or increase supply as needed and that is obviously a key source of funds and maybe even a more crucial source now, if some financial sp igets are turned off do you think he'll do something like that, cut supply or something that might lead to short-term pain for him, but if prices rocket, alls golan heights for him, right? >> that absolutely right. and we know from before, russia has shown that they will use oil as a weapon, that the they will cutoff supply. they've cutoff supplies to their neighbors when it suited their purposes and i could foresee a scenario where vladimir putin sees his energy dominance, and the global energy market as a political tool that he will use at-will and if he thinks it's in his best interest to cutoff supplies and drive up prices, make no doubt about it, i think he can do it and if he decides to do it every american is going to be paying the price for

higher gas and higher heat ing bills. neil: you know, you mentioned the crimea situation and what could happen now, if the president and i don't believe we have it in the area for the time being and if that is the case, then he could act unilaterally, putin could do pretty much what he wants to do obviously invit ing a lot more trouble and problems for himself but he does have a history of doing that. >> he does and i think, he also has a history of testing new administrations. he tested the obama administration. he tested the trump adminitration, you know, if you notice under the trump adminitration, he was a little bit more measured because he didn't know what donald trump was going to do next, right? but i think when it comes to president biden, he's testing him right now. he wants to see if he's going to , you know, get the same lack of resistance he got from the obama administration in 2014 wha and i don't think he's afraid of that so i think he's pushing the

envelope right now and the balls really in president biden's court. president biden took steps today to put on sanctions, he says they are measured sanctions. is that going to be enough to change his behavior? well based on past performance, in the past it hasn't. vladimir putin is still going to test the biden administration and i'm afraid they are going to test them even harder in the coming weeks. neil: all right, phil flynn, thank you very much. i think, phil, i think, it's a very good analysis. let's go to john hannah, of course remember john the former national security advisor to vice president dick cheney. john where is this going? what do you think? >> yeah, no there's no question , neil particularly this buildup on the ukraine border is a real threat that the u.s. has to pay very very close attention to, and mobilize all of our allies in europe against putin to try and deter them as best we can. i do think what the president did yesterday in terms of the

sanctions, while he acknowledges he held something in reserve, these weren't without some teeth and i do think they send a powerful message to putin that he needs to pause, he needs to back off, or else there could be much worse coming, because still lying out there is the nuclear option in terms of sanctions going after not only putin's closest oligarchs and going after their wealth but going after putin's wealth himself, whose one of the richest men in the world. neil: you know, as you probably heard already, john, the russian s have responded our expelling 10 diplomats to them expelling 10 diplomats of ours. where does this go? >> well this is, you know, tit-for-tat out of the standard

diplomatic play book for these kinds of incidents we've probably been here at least a half dozen different times over the past several years. the question is what else can the russians do to really increase the pressure on the united states? they talk about sanctions, but in a game of sanctions, there's no doubt that the u.s. has escalation dominance over the russians. i don't think putin really wants to go up that escalation ladder with us because we could really inflict some crippling pain on putin himself, and his inner circle and for putin, the play is really in ukraine itself, in europe. the effort to fracture and then of course on cyber. cyber is the ultimate question mark, and the potential catastrophe waiting out there if the russians as a result of these massive hacks are sitting on our networks, our water

networks, our electricity grid, our financial system. if they can turn off the lights in the united states, that's something, obviously, that a road nobody wants to really go down. neil: you know, john, you can refresh my memory here but i do remember when barack obama was getting rid of russian diplomatics in this country was obviously right before the election at the time, and there was talk that the russians weren't going to follow through with a reciprocal move because the new administration was coming in, and they hoped to start off on a friendlier foot and there was reports that the trump loyalists were saying all right, this is something we hope you don't do, because we are coming and it will be a little different. is there any possibility of that now obviously it's different because the new administration is already in, and is already doing this , but what do you think? >> listen, i think it's possible that the president and

his phone call with putin this week, while he said we're about to lower the boom on you in terms of some sanctions he also held out that olive branch of hey, we've got some areas limited where our interests align. we've got differences that we really need to talk about, and make sure there's no fatal miss calculation on either side. let's get together. let's have a summit. so i think putin has got to consider all of that. he's hurting internally, domestically in russia. his popularity is declining. he's got some elections coming up. he maybe could use a summit with the president of the united states to bolster his legitimacy , so putin has got some of his own calculations to do here, because it's not all free sailing for him. neil: very good point. john hannah, thank you very much , very good seeing you, john >> great, thank you, neil. neil: the only formal response that john touched on it from the russians here has been to

similarly take 10 diplomatics out of their country from the united states, send them back home including our ambassador. where this escalates if it does potentially escalate whether a summit is outright canceled now we just don't know. stay with us. everyone remembers the moment they heard...

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neil: all right, you know, it's amazing when you look at what has happened to bitcoin and all these cryptocurrencies, coinbase , the shop for everything crypto and deutsche coin which started out to think about it a few years back as an easier-to-use fun alternative to bitcoin, right now, that coin famous for the cute little dog on the cover, that's worth $40 billion. i kid you not. it's up 400%, now is that a sign of a bubble, it's in the eye of the beholder of course many people swear by this many others who swear at it charlie gasparino has been looking at things because charlie just today we returned that turkey is banned cryptocurrency in general , until they can sort

this out, just as a number of states, florida, you know, miami commissioner of looking at using that as a way residents can convey their taxes so it comes and goes but where is all of this going in your eye? charlie: well regulation when you talk to crypto investors and i spent sometime doing that regulation is the one thing that can knock this price down and even if ethererum and crypto were down by half, you know, they would still be up from where they were, still an amazing ride but down from where a lot of people put their money in so regulation is something that crypto investors have to look and after turkey, you know, this has been reported but we'll say it again. india is looking for a ban. if you can't, if various countries enact bans, that's going to be a problem for the prices of bitcoin and ethererum and the other digital currencies. the question really becomes what happens in the u.s. where we see

growing acceptance, particularly in the private economy. you could buy tesla with cryptocurrencies now, as you mentioned miami, but out of washington, janet yellen has basically been very critical of the use of bitcoin, so clearly, she's the point person jen psaki , biden's press secretary, said she's the point person, but she will also be sharing some responsibilities on this with gary gensler, and it's hard to figure out where gensler fits in terms of the regulatory skematic of the cryptocurrencies and i think that's where the pricing is going to have an impact. on the positive side, if you're a bull on crypto, he taught cryptocurrency and blockchain stuff at m. i.t., he was in academic before he went to the s ec as chairman. on the negative side, i just got this from a former student of his, reminded me that during his class, he wasn't like such a big

fan. he was often speaking negative about it, so clearly, there's going to be some regulatory impact between yellen and gensler, do they faceoff, do they agree, and if they agree, if you find him moving towards the yellen position on crypto regulation, again, she's been very critical of it, then, you know, there's going to be some there has to be some price impact because there's going to be more regulation. it's going to come out of washington with the sec and the treasury department so this is something i think every investor has to figure out, where does gensler and yellen come out of this , who takes the lead, and whose driving the ship on crypto regulation, because there's going to be some , the question is how much? i don't think, and when you talk to investors on this , neil, you know, you just kind of walk through the steps. could the u.s. theoretically ban crypto because there's this whole side economy and side currency going on? it's really hard for governments

to ban things, you know what i'm saying? it's just -- neil: i'm wondering we're at the point where it's too late to do that right? let's say they do establish these etf's eight or nine are lined up by the sec to get clearance and there's one in canada as it penetrates several and all of these other vehicles through which people are buying these alternative currency investments and then it might be too late and that itself, government intervention could have more of an effect of just hitting this particular market but the general market right? charlie: you could say let's ban them and you can't trade them, the etf's on any u.s. exchange but there are other exchanges out there. you know it's hard to keep the gea nexte in the bottle in the global financial world but i would say this if i'm investing in this , i would just watch this regulation. this is aside from whether bitcoin is worth $63,000 or not , there's a whole regulatory aspect here and the smart people

i talked to are all worried about regulation, supposed to cut it in half. people were buying bitcoin at 40 , 50, iffy went down to 30, if you looked at a chart it would still be way above where it was two years ago, but it be half of where it is now and there's a lot of value destruction there. just think -- neil: if you think about the coinbase ceo, when he started out, bitcoin was trading at around 20-$25. i don't even have to do the math to tell that obviously, it did very well that's why he's worth 20 billion-plus right now, but i do want to get your very quick thoughts on i know you are loath ed to give people investment advice but there is a school of thought that says this should be money you can afford to lose. this should be, if you want to dabble in this , and you know you're hanging on to a tiger, recognize that you could lose it all, but it better not be the money you're saving for your kid's education. that is if you like your kids,

but the other that you don't want to risk, you don't want to risk unless you're willing to lose. what do you think of that? charlie: listen it gets back to investing 101. you should be diversified. people that came into the pandemic decently diversified, not 100% in stocks, i mean, i remember when the pandemic first started, it was february of last year, right before the real you know what hit the fan, i said if you load this market up all the way, now might be a time to take 20-30% off the top. and people looked at me. there was some people internally that criticized me of showing fear. all i was saying is protect yourself a little bit. you rode it to the top, you go into somewhat cash when this thing bottoms out and if we figure out where we're going with the economy, and the markets vis-a-vis the pandemic, they start buying again. it turned out to be good advice i just think that when you ride something up like this , this long, it's not bad to take

some off the top and find something else to put your money in, because it's all about diversification going forward and if it does crash or go down by 15-20%, and you still believe in it, well you can buy some more. i mean, ac ex greenberg was all about that. he didn't mind taking losses but he didn't want to stay until it hit rock bottom, because when he was taking those losses he could have been making gains on other stuff. neil: that's right. diversified, diversify. i always remember the jfk line, those who want to taste the tail of the tiger should recognize the danger that they could soon be in. charlie: that's absolutely true. neil: thank you, my friend. i don't think he was talking about bitcoin at the time but you don't know. we don't know what the motivation for that remark was. charlie: very smart man by the way. neil: loosely paraphrasing. as you are, my friend, the best reporter on the planet, bar none , always breaking news and i like to just break his chest but

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only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ neil: all right, we, indeed are open for business, particularly when it comes to those seeking out the big trips on planes, in fact a record number are doing so at least records for the pandemic day after day, better than a million people being screened at the nation's airports, as they sort of, i guess, feel the itch and want to get out. we're getting latest from grady trimble at o'hare international airport, how they're dealing with these bigger crowds than what they were, right? reporter: they certainly are, neil. i was on a plane yesterday and it was packed. this is a leisure travel boom, business travel hasn't quite come back yet, but people now

that so many are getting vaccinated are ready to finally take a trip again, and airlines are expecting that the to grow even more as we head into the summer months, with people taking vacations, kids off from school, and because of that, you can expect ticket prices to climb up quite a bit. in fact the folks at the travel app hopper say that prices are going to rise about 12% from this month to next month, and then another 4% from may to june , so the bottom line is if you're looking to take a trip this summer, now is probably the best time to book. been talking to a lot of passengers here at o'hare this morning and they tell me, they are eager to get back into the sky. >> my husband and i live una two bedroom apartment, we've been working from home for a year, we're both vaccinated and we need a break. >> just covid fatigue want out, we're vaccinated now, so feel confident to get out there. reporter: think that couple

speaks for a lot of people right now, so where is everybody going well they're not doing those big bucket list international trips. they are mostly staying domestic heading to popular outdoor and warm weather destinations. the most popular spots by online searches right now are las vegas , denver, and the miami area, to soak up the sunshine there. the airlines are responding in kind. all of them are adding routes right now. american airlines adding 150 new routes and solidifying their summer schedule this week. in fact, neil, they say they are going to be at 90% of their 201r travel is coming back in a big way as we head into the summer. neil? neil: good to see , grady. good to see thank you very much, my friend grady trimble, chicago 's o'hare international airport. this just continues a theme that we report at the outset of the show where some booming numbers including housing starts up 19% of the latest month, retail sales yesterday reported

up almost 10%, you're seeing obviously the job data getting better and better, record low, a little more than half a million americans applying for jobless benefits, the lowest weekly figure we've seen through the pandemic. i could go on and on but let's go to the experts, john lawsky, is joining us, mark hammerich, bank rate senior economic analyst gentlemen welcome to both of you. so john on the booming economic numbers, with few exceptions, they continue to just amaze. what do you think is going on here? >> well in large part this is a release of pent-up demand, we have a record high personal savings rate, and that was because of people actually couldn't spend money on a number of services that were effective ly shutdown, talking about the airlines, the airlines are reopening, hotels, resorts, and this will lead to at least a

temporary surge by spending. neil: so mark, when i'm looking at these numbers, keeping one eye by the way on the white house, gentlemen, the japanese prime minister has arrived to meet with president biden as the first foreign leader to meet with the president, we'll keep you posted on those developments and arriving a short time ago on the north portico entrance of the white house, but looking at all of the developments here i think japan would love to have our type of economic growth. you don't want to curse a good thing, but is there anything out there that worries you, that maybe some are getting ahead of themselves when they talk about this boom. >> yeah, neil your question essentially is we are not quite sure what we ought to worry about. what we probably need to worry about is something, right? and i think we've been sitting this filtering on through the financial markets lately, great case in point today looking at that, some might think it's rather mundane, but the university of michigan consumer sentiment survey is

something that excites all of us here on this panel and one of the things that was remarkable in that was a consumer insight, that they're more concerned about inflation than the mid-term than they are in the long term and my thought about that was wow all of a sudden everybody is listening to federal reserve officials, right so i do think that that probably is among the things on the radar screen, but also let's go back to 13, 14 months ago. the pandemic is the source of all of our problems right? and so we still need to have an effective response to that, and from that, emerges a better economy and right now, we're see analogy intact, we're seeing a great lift off in play with the u.s. economy, where right now, people just continue to raise their estimates on gdp for the first half of the full year. neil: you know, i was telling a guest prior, gentlemen, about some of the numbers that are not so much hard data as a reflection of how people are feeling, and one survey out that says we're feeling the best now

since the pandemic began, there was kind of not sluff off those type of numbers because that gets to the core not only how people are feeling but if they're feeling pretty good about things they tend to reflect that in other ways, they go out and buy things and they plan trips and we're seeing it play out in some of this data so when you look at that, john lons ki, what is the consumer telling you right now? >> the consumer is assuming that covid-19 risks will continue to decline. unfortunately, when we look at other countries and certain parts of the united states, that assumption might be proven wrong right now, the business cycle is being driven by, and it has been driven by covid-19, and we could be in for a nasty surprise if one of these variants begins to take off in highly populated areas and leads to shutdowns that are either going to be

enforced or voluntary. neil: so, you know, mark i was taking a peak just a little while ago at the 10 year note and people were concerned not too long ago when it was rocking at over 1.7, i set rocketing because all of us are at an age where we can remember that would have been a comfortable fine rocket for all of us but having said that it was up a lot more from the days of 0%, so now, it's under 1.6% again, and that, despite still soaring market and the soaring economic numbers, have we hit a sweet spot here is this a temporary development, what do you think, mark? >> well it feels a little like a sweet spot in the sense of having this outlook for strong growth and still whatever that's leveling out at, low interest rates, whether it's those that are determined by the federal reserve or those in the marketplace, and yeah, we may have seen the peak and the 10 year for a while, what a while is we don't yet no, but there are question marks about what happens broadly.

the infrastructure measure doesn't necessarily seem to have smooth sailing. that's really something that would help to ingender growth in the intermediate and long term. we need to john's point we need essentially a clean solution globally to covid-19 including getting through the next winter, and we need opening of the international economy, which would also provide a path, so to speak, for all those travel companies that are reliant not only on domestic markets to give them revenue but also international markets. neil: john, finally, what are you thinking the fed is thinking are they comfortable with this? are they okay with this? is it a hands off deal? i mean, jerome powell seemed to indicate there certainly wouldn't be any rate hikes this year, but what do you think >> well i think the fed feels very comfortable with their bond buying program, with the fed funds rate nearly 0%. i mean, after all, we're getting

very good news on the economy. we have what, profits perhaps growing by 25% annually and what happens the 10 year treasury yield receives from almost 1.75% now it's under 1.6%, so obviously, the global credit market is not all that worried about inflation taking off in the united states in a lasting manner and i happen to think the credit market is right and i think the fed is correct by stating that any upturn by inflation will just be temporary. it will be passing. neil: all right, gentlemen, you kind of reassured me here so i'm not going to freak out here but if you're wrong, man oh, man i'll have you back and rip you both but seriously a great job guys have a wonderful weekend. we are epidemic koalaing an eye on what's going on in minnesota right now those tensions are still running high for the

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♪♪ neil: all right, still hoping for calm in minnesota, but maybe not everybody on board with that lidia hu with the latest, lidia? reporter: hey, there, neil. we saw some property damage in the demonstrations in minnesota from earlier this week. we also saw some arrests. now it reminds us from last summer when there were protests and riots that caused an estimated one to $2 billion worth of property damage across about 20 states in the country. now, then as those events were unfolding, there was a democratic strategist, david sure, who took to twitter, to encourage peaceful protests. he posted this. it's research from a princeton professor, and he was summariz ing this research saying , "non-violent protests increase democratic vote."

now, sure tells me that there was fallout after this tweet. he soon learned that in his liberal circle, raising non- violent protests at that time was not acceptable, by that night, he says that he had received hundreds of messages calling for his resignation and professional outing. he called the experience traumatic and tweets like this were posted in response of accusing him "minimizing black grief and rage" as a"bat campaign tactic for democrats" and he was canceled, he says and it was reported he was terminat ed amid the fall out and when i had a chance to talk to david sure he would not express ly address the exact circumstances surrounding his departure from his previous employers, but he did separate from them in the immediate aftermath of posting this tweet. they did not respond to our quest for comment. now, he tells me he still believes the research he shared had merit and encouraging peaceful protest and he believes

that the group that canceled him was a small and vocal minority. listen to this. >> the thing that i get worried about is if you have a very small fraction of the population , you know, the most 1% to 2% left wing of the population, determining what you can say and what you can't say, i think that, you know, that's bad. reporter: now, after this heroing experience for david sure, he tells me that he has found new employment still in his field as a data scientist working to help get democrats elected into office and on the whole he feels that he is doing better after this experience and some of his research has gotten more noticed neil? neil: lidia, thank you very much for that, very interesting, lydi a hu on all of that here is the good news for businesses reopening right now, now here is the bad news. they can't find workers. i kid you not, after this.

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are out of work, so the question is, how many of those have an incentive to find work, when they're receiving unemployment benefits and stimulus checks, the question is, are they earning more by just staying home. well according to a study last year by the national bureau of economic research, the answer in many cases is yes. half of the eligible unemployed received benefits or replaced at least 134% of their last wages two-thirds received benefits larger than their lost earnings and 20% were eligible for benefits that at least doubled their lost wages. the owner of a california construction company says well, it's hard to compete with free money. >> getting a large sum of money immediately tax free and they ended up taking vacations. i mean, some of them took time off and it was about two months of not working, so we suffered.

ashley: it is why many companies across the u.s. are struggling to find new workers, leading to frustration like this sign, seen at a macdonald's drive-thru that said, we are short staffed, please be patient with the staff that did show up, no one wants to work anymore, but not all states, by the way, are created equal. a $1,400 check in new york certainly won't go as far as it would in say louisiana, where it represents a 143% of the median income. according to the latest report from the department of labor there was 7.4 million job openings at the end of february. proof the work is still available. >> a lot of the construction market actually increased. suddenly, it was just a spike in everything that was on hold now had to be done by the end of the fiscal year, so there was a tremendous amount of work and we just couldn't find enough people to come to work. ashley: couldn't find enough people to come to work under president biden's rescue plan

the unemployed will receive federal payment of $300 a week on top of the standard benefits through at least labor day, as well as tax waivers for many households. in other words businesses will likely still face a shortage of willing workers for months to come. neil? neil: ashley thank you very much so to ashley's point did we still you la it too much, are we risking over doing it right now, senator bianch i'm joins us former deputy assist apt to barack obama for policy and always good to have you thank you for taking the time. what do you think of that. did we overstimulate and put people, thank you, put people in the position of deciding look, i'm getting generous, unemployment benefits or relief checks i don't have to rush back to work so i won't. can you hear us? >> sorry i can't hear anything. neil: all right, i apologize for that here, just putting that in perspective, here, we're spending about $1.9 trillion of

course as part of that stimulus relief plan on top of what could be another $2.25 trillion right now going to infrastructure. that's not a sure bet by the way that latter one, but right now the economy seems to be turning out doing enough that we don't need to do that at the time being, we've got the dow better that in 100 points right now a little bit more than 34,000, so the argument seems to be why do anything right now? we're on top of that. we'll have more, after this.

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that doesn't necessarily mean it's frothy or doesn't mean that it's to be dismissed, but when you hear 400%, of course, you are talking about something that is under a dollar, well under a dollar. so just keeping track of that. but it does continue a theme that's been pretty common this week with the debut of coinbase, big cryptocurrency trading shop, if you will, where bitcoin and ethereum and all these others can be tradeed. i don't believe you can trade doge coin on this particular exchange, but i know you can trade it elsewhere. again, it's been a very big week with all of the technologies and stocks, the bumpy ride notwithstanding. the s&p already in record territory, this would be its fourth straight advance, and we're seeing the dow by and large doing quite okay with the strong economic numbers that we've been getting and interest rates holding their own. normally, the stronger the

data -- we've got a ton of it today as charles payne will tell you -- but if you think it's led to inflation fear, the 10-year note well under the 1.75% it was looking at a little more than a few weeks ago. now to my buddy charles. hey, charles. charles: hey, neil. thank you very much. good afternoon, everyone. i'm charles payne, and "making money" starts right now. we're going to break with this, the s&p on track for its fourth weekly gain in a row. are investors too optimistic in what the heck do you buy right now, and what's happening with the russell 2000? i've got market experts with the answers. and in his first face to face with a foreign reeder, pride -- leader, president biden welcoming japan's leader to the white house right now. i'm going to ask one of my