and countless complex of continued right up to the present day american men and women have given all so the rest of us can live in peace, unity and freedom. we owe it to them to keep working to build the more perfect union that they died for. that's it for us this week, i'll be back next week more in-depth interviews on "the wall street journal" at large print thank you for joining us. have a lovely memorial day weekend. ♪♪ >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by invesco queue queue queue. ♪♪ >> welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you or the week ahead. i'm jack. coming up, one of barron's most 100 influential women in u.s. finance tells us how to capitalize on new retail trends as people had back to work and later we look at the shortage of everything from housing, to appliances, semi conductors and pet food, everything's to be short supply for how long will

it last? how you can protect your portfolio. we begin as always with what we think are the three most important things investors ought to be thinking about right now. stock staging a stealth rally this week, posted solid gains but without a clear driving force. what is next for the market? big oil under pressure to go green, exxon, royal dutch and chevron getting pushed transition away from fossil fuels and what this means for the companies and their investors. we're looking at the health of the housing market. now in question as new data gives mixed signals. on the barron's roundtable my colleagues jack and beverly goodman so jack, stocks did a neat thing this week. prices are, i should say, all year. prices have been going up but their evaluations are coming down for it how does that work? >> s&p 500 and we've got a 100% gain this week and i am not complaining but for the year we are up 12%. if you look at the earnings estimate for the s&p 500 for this year and we've seen what

that has done a year to date so it is up 13% so you can make the argument that stocks have gotten a little bit cheaper and there's an earnings boom right now. everyone is saying inflation is coming and we've already seen it and they are saying it will get hot and be a problem but when you look at the bottom market the bottom market is shrugging his shoulders right now and the ten year treasury yield fell this past week and i spoke with jonathan the u.s. stock chief over at credit sweep and he does lately when you look at the futures market there was higher expectations of inflation, higher expectations of bond yield and the stock market is going up on those and doing well which suggests that a little more inflation is not necessarily going to be death for the market but if they think they will get 9% more out of the s&p 500 this year with industrials and banks and retailers. jack: so all this goldilocks stuff might be boring for some people and there was some

excitement in the mima stock, amc going crazy and i got to patching in the back, you've been talking about how ford was coming back for a long time and you are finally right? >> well, starts with the mima stock great i know you like that rocketship emoji crowd on the reddit chat board so let's talk about what they're up to but there are up 36% this week and amc more than doubled and a lot of short interest and signs of meme type trading but let's separate these and amc is in a fight to see whether the movie business will ever be obtained and it's very much a growth stock. ford is a totally different and that was up 9% and simple. electric f-150 pickup truck and a lot of people are out there saying wait a second, i did not recognize it would be such a serious workforce and maybe even make my gasoline truck look wimpy and wall street likes it and earnings have been strong

and important programs. jack: speaking of power, let me read the lead to your story in this week's barren, big oil suffered a terrible setback but if could move the industry forward it will move energy companies and their investors. could you explain? >> wednesday animals looks like final scene of the godfather but exxon mobil living two seeds to an activist investor and a new activist investor and you had chevron shareholders passing proposal to force accompanied gas emissions and then you had the dutch court ruling against royal dutch shell saying that they had the lowest emissions but big change coming in the energy space. this has been unthinkable years ago and when you look at the exxon mobil situation engine number one it holds 0.02% of the shares of the 250 billion-dollar company but they had a lot going in their favor just with how a lot of the big institutional investors like state street have

been prioritizing, change in jack, it's not just them but also the proxy advisor that are looking toward climate change now. jack: yakima fascinating. i challenged the investor on this and they said when you buy a 30 year bond in a company that only sells oil, i mean, now it is great but in 29 years will be be using this much oil? a big question but of course you're looking at whether it can help the stocks or not. let me move to beverly before we run out of time and we can talk housing. there's been a lot of data volatility all over the economy but nowhere as much as we saw in housing this past week. >> yeah, pretty weird week for housing data. new-home sales were down 4.4% for the month and increase had been predicted and existing home sales also disappointed and they were supposed to be great and the average home, meanwhile, sold for 90% higher than it did one year ago so prices are up and supply is limited. jack: that's not usually the way

it happens but real quick, how long will this continue? 90% is a huge jump. >> it is. it will continue for as long as the pandemic economy is working its way through but the dynamics will change as we emerge from the pandemic. people will get out of their houses more, returned to the office or at least occasionally and start spending money on occasions and other things and forbearance programs could end which will affect supply so i think there is a softening, if not a bubble bursting on the horizon. jack: oh no, not a housing bubble peered i hope not. thank you. coming up, capitalizing on new trends as more americans had back to work. dana telsey shows us where we dana telsey shows us where we should conside they said it couldn't be done but you managed to pack

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♪ ♪. jack: consumers fundamentally change the way they spend their money during covid-19 pandemic. retailers continue to look for fast recovery but some shifts in the landscape may take years to normalize. advisory and research officer dana telsey joins us at the roundtable. i really appreciate you joining us but we seen impressive earnings over the past few weeks from a lot of retailers so what is your overall view of the landscape? >> i think what happened, stimulus came in the world began to reopen and more vaccines have been rolled out and people ought to get out there and gather. they have not seen their friends and family for over one year and they've got money to spend and they have not bought anything in terms of new clothing and you are seeing the uptick. the uptick began the second half of march and is continuing. i think that will change and what is happening is we're seeing a peril doing well,

restaurants and people going out to eat all of a sudden and the headwinds are suggested and the supply chain and labor increases but the tailwinds of the dollar consumers pastor continue to basically lift all of those as we go through the balance of the year. we do see those numbers advocating and piercing pent-up demand and that's exciting. jack: up 60% at abercrombie, 70% children's place but a lot of the tailwinds you mentioned the stimulus and that eagerness to get out and so forth they are somewhat transitory. how long will it last? >> i think we have a world that is supercharged changing in the consumer space and companies need to be innovative and need to have seamless initiative to execute and they need to use their data. how long this will last, as long as they come out with innovative products that they are giving the consumer the reason why and giving them a way around. we will see solid results i think through the rest of the

year with the surprise potentially being better sales than we expect. i think now it will be retailers getting the inventory given the issues with court suggestion out there and i think because we go to next year hybrid work models are in place and the gatherings that people are still going to want to do, i think we will be able to have these engagements and activities that are frankly, going to continue to elevate spending as we go into 2022. people value value over convenience. jack: you're talking about going to the office but not full-time et cetera so one of the tricky things that you do is stock analysts have so many things they need to think about and yet for you it is the added layer of that fickle consumer, what will be in style? what will be preparing to the office next month or next year? >> could it be done in jeans? all of a sudden what we are hearing out there is jeans being up nearly 40% and it's impressive. is the new casual or the new

workplace and it may not be as much suit but it may be a blazer or a sports jacket with denim jeans ever seen a heightened interest and for every pair of bottoms that retailers sell typically three or four tops are sold so i think we will see may be a more casual workplace with an elevated pair of denim jeans and i think, if anything, it will be new goods that they had not worn frankly two years ago. you will get that both with handbags and look what you seen with the larger tote bags coming back and you will get that with makeup, with all the new foundations being introduced so there is a lot of new that people need to buy in order to be able to be confident and to be comfortable. jack: real quick, i want to hit you on three stocks that you mentioned it abercrombie, children's place and what was the other one —- urban outfitters? >> keep in mind what they all have, they are all discretionary names. since kids didn't go to school in 2020 but they will go in

person in 2021. more competitors have entered the marketplace and that is a positive for children's place to gain share and many think think about abercrombie the of charlie emilio in over 260 million social media followers along with what they're doing on the denim jeans aside and have cleaned and refined portfolio where they can add to profitability and that is abercrombie. look at urban. we brands, three people generating significant increases and you have anthropology that should benefit for women going out and gathering again and then you have the core urban business, whether home or jeans they are resonating. all three brands or all three companies didn't have the discretionary spending power of the consumer last year and they have in this era reduced expenses and extreme on their portfolios which allows them to be more profitable. i think while essentials are strong at 2020 and are still doing well in 2021 the comeback

kids will be the discretionary players. jack: not many people know this industry like you do, dana mayorkas, thank you for your insight. >> thank you. have a great weekend. jack: you two. surviving this shortage of everything, the bicycles, semi conductors and foods, everything is in a short supply. how long shortage is my last and who stands to profit, that is who stands to profit, that is welcome to allstate. ♪ ♪ you already pay for car insurance, why not take your home along for the ride? allstate. here, better protection costs a whole lot less. you're in good hands.

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♪♪ jack: people are prepared to spend money coming out of the covid-19 pandemic but everything seems to be in short supply ranging from houses to dog food. considering —- it's our barren cover story this week and we can't point fingers at a single reason for the shortages. many factors in play here and chat, i think you've coined a new term that i really liked the everything shortage.

it seems that we've only got too much hand sanitizer. >> yeah, i mean, let's start where i know it is hitting you hard. jack, chicken sandwiches. chick-fil-a had a sordid and burger king had pickle problems, chicken breast prices have soared this year and look at homebuilding bird i ordered a fridge and they said no sooner than six months and no matter what can federation i bought. i spoke this guy mitch hires at construction resources down in decatur, georgia and he says he's getting calls from people saying we went to college together, get you —- can you get me a fridge and he says i can help you by the way he's building the second house down to florida and he can't furniture. he ordered it in february it will take him until maybe september to get his hands on furniture. you know, you have semi conductors and you have a shortage of semi conductors and everything from ipads to trucks and to some dog food is hard to find, chlorine for pools and it

is all over the place. jack: everyone went out to get puppies during the pandemic and bought too much dog food. it's amazing. were ready waiting for a patio umbrella that my wife ordered in june and now it's late july. when i love but your story is everyone has their own barstool excavation provide this is happening but you point out that there are somebody poisons that play that it's the perfect storm. >> there is a lot of causes and the overlap some of them and they change some of them. there are one-off spirit with the polar vortex in rome or all the cold war there earlier in the year that shut down petrochemical plants and you've got strange things like this that is used to hold together to make siding for houses and that's in short supply in things like that when you have a hurricane last year that knocked out corine and there are still recovering them and corn has been affected by weird weather in brazil and the midwest. then the pandemic effect, things have been been ordering and not

were spending more on stuff and then the demand surprise and i hear stories about people say we thought we we be in a fight for our life financially and outward a place to keep up with orders and that's because people are building wealth and we have stimulus which was for some people was very important and it saved them financially but when you get out of the hole the stimulus is larger than the demand and so that's produces upward pressure in one of the biggest causes you have to look at is transportation. wherever you look there's a shortage of shipping containers, shortage of dock space and i talked to a guy a union boss of the docks in la and said i've got them stacked a tie right here but he can't move them because there's also a shortage of warehouse space, warehouse workers, trucks, truck chassis and drivers. jack: and all of the stuff hits at a time when we were decades into some various trends that are contributing to this. >> just in time manufacturing. it's a virtual, digital, lean

asset like sharing economy and it's been wonderful for profit margins but maybe we've got too far. a survey last year of supply chain managers and more than 40% said they beat we've gotten to lean and maybe we need to and if you look or look at the numbers like assets in america they are the oldest since the 1960s so we probably need more capital investment and people talk now to say let's forget about just in time manufacturing but just in case manufacturing and you need a cushion. jack: beverly, jump in here. >> so, while the pickle is a real problem, jack, i want to know what this means for investors? what stock should we be looking at what companies could benefit? >> let me be clear, beverly. cucumbers are fine and brian is fine but it's the jars that are causing the pickle problem and i hope it will be swear but to your stocks, we need more capital investment.

there will be more building of factories and infrastructure and there's already record in the warehouses. intel spent 20 billion on the two new chip factories. i think if you look at land research, companies like that provide chip equipment, oshkosh two aerial work platforms and rockwell automation? factories, west company is a supplier of lecture go supply for capital products and hpo or i'm sorry, xp a logistics. jack: real quick, i can tell you getting impatient. [laughter] >> i'm curious how long this will be going on, jack. i've got this —- can i have this for dinner tonight or do i have to worry about canned shortages on the line? >> i thought you were meaning how long will i go on talking about the shortage —- i have one strategist said two or three months but less than two or three years but if you want to really know ask a transportation analyst and i did and he said the way things look now we will not have a fix by the christmas

shopping season which means we will not have it fixed until early next year for consumers. jack: thank you for that jack. we could go on and on but we can't so everyone read that story and that is the best estimation of what you will see is going on in the economy. up next, two great things we talk about why jeff bezos fought mgm and summer reading from the roundtable. roundtable. stay right there. it's not some magical number. and it's not something we just achieve at the end. it's a feeling... of freedom to live our lives the way we intended. though the ups... ...the downs ...all of it. this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there as you plan, protect and retire. this is lincoln financial. ♪ ♪

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♪♪ jack: big news this week that amazon was buying mgm, one of my favorite things about this deal is that shows who's powerful in the media world right now. rather than quote the ceo or even the president, the press release from amazon quoted in fbp and one of the fine one of

the most storied studios in hollywood. >> yet, like an afterthought so everyone is wondering what does it mean, where does it lead and i don't know, thelma and louise and may be jeff really does like the movie and you theorized earlier to me that he wants to play the next james bond villain and he could want to make 25 more rockets and that's another film and i think it's about getting franchise films. it serves like netflix, amazon prime and they're making new stories all the time and it helps to have a franchise to work off of but may be james bond and this is a company with 200 million streaming subscribers and we forget about that and we don't list them with netflix and disney but if wants to's treat streaming is more than a hobby and this deal makes it look like it does, it could be a powerful player. jack: i think people think if you ask who the big streaming players they with a netflix and disney but amazon is number two really close on the heels of netflix and also remember it is not just dreaming but that is the prime business. in some ways you are buying a

movie studio to help you sell more paper towels. >> yeah, and there's always the possibility that they are doing more with add on subscriptions to music and there's a possibility they could create some separate subscription business that we are not thinking of that will be a new cash cow revenue stream for them. jack: it will be fun to see what they do after daniel craig who will jeff bezos because james bond. no time for actionable ideas and were doing some the different this week. the memorial day holiday we have picked books. beverly, what do you have for the viewers? >> i've got noise, the new book, nobel prize winner in economics but writes a very friendly way. in noise he looks at why decision-making is so hard and how we can get better at it. if you don't want to read the book, read my interview with him in this week's issue. jack: i will try to read both but i would start with your interview. carlton, your pick. >> beverly has one of my favorite economists but i'm looking at money, the true story of a made up thing and it takes

a look at the history of money going from trading shells to now i guess we are using paper and maybe even bitcoin, to some extent and how social relationships played into how we came to understand money. jack: carlton, beverly, great book ideas. thank you so much for dream or check out this week's edition@barron's .com. to forget to follow us on twitter at barron's online and that is all for usss >> happy we can do all, welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was the week ahead. i'm maria bartiromo appeared we are seeing a strong new signs of economic growth and i will be asking mark where he is investing coming out. i will also be. mara: senator rand paul and his wife, kelly paul. they are speaking out against twitter after receiving a violent threat in the mail this past week. the role they