everyone. how ironic would be seeking to appease the critics of capitalism i am bracing the extreme ideology and executives would undermine the very system that made them successful in the first-place. be sure to join me again on wall street journal at large next week, thank you for joining us and have a great week. ♪ roundtable sponsored by invesco qqq ♪ ♪. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead i am jack otter, gasoline is climbing and will ask san francisco mary how long rising inflation will last. and later the ftc refiled its antitrust case against facebook

but barron's is the outlook for big tech is surprisingly bright, we begin as always with what we think the three most important things investors ought to be thinking about right now, stocks took a hit on taper plans: and afghanistan also waiting on the market, retail stocks rallied as shoppers headed back into stories and highflying kathy woods trading barbs with a short investor michael burry we will tell you is on the right side of the trade, my colleagues ben levisohn, carlson english and alex, despite the trade the market did in down slightly was a something the feds did? >> it actually was there was a lot of concerns about tapering and this is despite the fact that it was telegraphed the tapering starts soon and we got minutes from the meeting and we had to talk about tapering and it didn't bother the market at all. what it seems if you look at the taper tantrum from 2013 the market fell express and in the

s&p finished more than 30% that year, the taper tantrum even if we were to get a real one really wasn't that bad it was a buying opportunity back then. >> is there any different than market that has seen because were so used to going up what else are investors hooked on. >> there is concern about afghanistan and what impact it might have on the stimulus package, the economic data also covid with the case is still increasing. in the economic part of it might be the most worried goldman sachs cited covid-19 credits gdp forecast for the third quarter and of course we gonna have to pay attention to but covid made entry may be slowing down just enough to do the feds work. jack: that is an interesting outlook. real quick week we have the jackson hole meeting and i assume you're looking at that? >> again is going to be all about balance and when is this

taper going to occur and will keep a close eye on what he has to say. jack: will hear a little bit more about the feds coming up with mary daly, it was a big week for retail earnings reports, what did we learn? >> we've got a lot of great data if you look at macy's is 62% increase in sales year-over-year i remember the base effect from last year but when comparing them to 2019 figures you see emerging improve, that looking backwards, looking forward to a lot of optimism for macy's, kohl's and others about the back-to-school season and holiday shopping season, people are going back into stories and a lot of the retailers including target to reinstating with the case of macy's and announcing buybacks between 250 billion. jack: data track reported e-commerce is 21% of retail which is halfway between the pandemic high and the preprint debacle, amazon interestingly is

going for brick-and-mortar, what is that all about? >> for amazon is a way to get the private labels in front of consumers because they're doing a huge push but there will be a lot of people buying online and you've never seen the product in person we feel comfortable buying online from certain retailers and store but if you've never seen the product, and a weird way the traditional brick-and-mortar have to pay attention but it does bode well for trans brick-and-mortar people still do like to go into stores. jack: they want to try and the pair of jeans before they buy them. are you bullish at this point. >> we had a bunch of great year so far the expertise that the retail etf up 50% i don't know that were going to see those types of figures in the in-store sales but we do have the pain dividend and buyback stocks and people going back to the store a dozen positive broadly.

jack: let's get to alex we don't use that word too often, it is our predecessors in the journalism world but we have to realize the donnybrook, michael burry versus kathy woods, tell us about it. >> it's always fun to see two famous investors go head-to-head. in the most speculative, bitcoin, coinbase, tesla, meanwhile best-known the housing crash and a big short, now it's rowing out the 31 million-dollar short bet on kathy woods organization etf, a bernie has been really outspoken about some of our biggest medians and he told barron's were running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon. jack: what is kathy's response to this? >> she is basically, she said you had a great call on the

housing crisis but i'm not sure you know or understand the fundamentals of innovation or how to price them. jack: i'm going to put you on the shot. >> call me old-fashioned but the only way i know how to analyze these things is by looking at the evaluation and there's not a lot of compelling evaluation case to be made for most of the stocks that are in the rt tf and holds more than $2 billion for tesla, billion of coinbase in zoom and a billion of square and there's many other big positions. jack: i looked up the fund on morningstar in the portfolio on average is that 120 times earnings. those beds work really well until suddenly they don't and it can get ugly, one question for you, why you think that the hedge funds are actually betting against the fund rather than just looking at the component properties and saying that was overvalued so i will short that

one. >> is not just bernie, i think short-sellers have had a really tough time betting against individual stocks is become a popular way to bet against the most speculative parts of the market right now and i think the short-sellers are hoping they will be left burned with arc if you're a bear this is a must a one-stop topic. jack: that's a good way to look at it. coming up san francisco fed mary daly weighs in on rising inflation, the labor market and how the delta variant is really affecting the economy. ♪

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>> this past week we had the feds plan to cut back on bond buying as inflation picks up her to get more insight were joined by mary daly as skateboarder podcast or and more to the point

the president of the federal reserve bank of san francisco. thank you for joining us. >> thank you glad to be here. jack: let's talk about inflation when you dig into the data you despite the concerns a huge chunk is two things used car prices and gasoline. but on the other hand food prices are creeping up recently see the possibility of wage pressure, how are you think about inflation? >> like you said, right now inflation is being driven by a few sectors that are really pushing this up to eye-catching levels. but i do expect those things to moderate and i expect inflation to return to more normal levels that are accustomed to and for us to risk manage that the volatility and get to a place where were getting back to full employment and getting back to inflation on average of 2%. jack: given the outlook to me about federal reserve policy, at some point everyone expects you will begin tapering reduces the

purchase of mortgage bonds and treasury bonds, what does that schedule look like? >> the key thing about policy is not on a preset schedule. but what we are seeing is that the economy has tremendous momentum and that is really good because right now we have a new risk of the delta variant that is tempering a little bit with a willingness to consumers to go out to engage but we have enough momentum that i feel we will weather this inappropriate to start dialing back the level of support we are giving to the economy probably by the individual or early next. that really depends on how well were able to get to the delta variant, how many people we can get vaccinated and move through this quickly and get back fully on our feet in the u.s. economy. jack: are you concerned or what are you doing to make sure the federal reserve is communicative as much as possible, as you said, communicating to the markets, which are planning for

the future, have we seen the taper tantrum in the past, is there an effort to make sure that everybody has full transparency? >> absolutely you've heard this in the press conference that he talked in detail about were discussing tapering in the right timing with the right pace in the composition and you see people like myself officials out there talking through, what are the factors that determine the schedule issue as you call it in the key message it is time to think about dialing back the level of support that were given to the economy and the economy is standing on its own 2 feet and the thing to watch right now before the end of the year and how well does the economy whether the delta variant and doesn't have the momentum that we need with the pressure that we have for further progress, right now i'm confident that we will by the end of the year but i have to remain open minded and

data dependent and say it could go into early next year. jack: i want to pivot to your view that climate change is really important for the economy and critics will say is not something that should be on the feds agenda, tell us why you disagree and what that means for the outlook. >> let me make a distinction this is a case where words matter, the fed does not have the tools or nor is it the appropriate body i think about climate change and mitigating climate change but we are absolutely involved in thinking about climate risk and that is a real risk that buyers and hurricanes in severe weather weather is very cold or very hot in property values and the ability to get insurance, and the ability for people to work and create their livelihood, the other things that are real to the economy so we have to study those things and figure out how they affect the pain system, the financial system and the broader

economy. that is why we are involved in this because were responsible for ensuring that the economy and were doing our part to continue growth in the economy. jack: one more pivot to the labor market, employers are having trouble finding employees to hire and we know a lot of people out of work, do you have a sense from economic views as to why that is. >> absolutely it boils down to the fact that were reopening that were sent over the goebel pandemic. a lot of things happen, numbers of children for the first time going back to school in the school year reopening. and i hear from somebody parents, it's very, very challenging to go to work and find a job, that is one thing. covid is still here, the delta variant is frightening to many people even when they have a vaccination they feel little timid of going back and fully engaging in being work in person environment where they had a lot of contact with people, we have the fiscal support which allows

people to make those choices and take care of those families, wait until they safely go back to work all those factors are truly making this bottleneck and you have 70 people go out of work it takes time for them to go back and find the right jobs and find the right opportunities for employers and employees in labor economics to make the match into get the economy fully back into where it belongs i'm confident that that's going to happen we have to be impatient persevere while we continue to get there. jack: thank you for joining us. regulators going after facebook again does the tech titan heading for breakup, that is next. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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jack: facebook and other tech companies under fire but that the best business models on the planet this week's barron's cover story on thursday the federal state commission filed an amended version of the lawsuit against facebook a judge tossed out the earlier suit filed by the trump administration in june and now bidens ftc is taking another swing but investors don't seem to care. >> is pretty remarkable the regulatory is around about five years old at least and we see time and time again that investors are particular worried about the impact on the stock, up until now they have been right and they are potentially be serious repercussions in the breakup of companies. potentially. even that remedy investors have decided it could be good for stocks, the best way to look at it imagine being able to buy amazon the e-commerce giant amazon web services and amazon web services the cloud giant.

some are betting one plus one equals more than two. jack: i'm totally on board, whatsapp isn't being valued in anything, you can get youtube separately that will start its own search engine, it's really interesting if investors are focused on this, what are they focused on. >> i think rather than regulation what a lot of tech investors are worried about is the post covid economy and people returning to the analog habits, your blessed online shopping, that worry has hurt amazon stock in recent weeks and fewer people buying ipads and masks because her headed back to the office so there's no more need to abate under byproducts or home office, that is the worry for tech investors if there is one. jack: it is flat on the year but here's what i found really most interesting in the story was optimism about these little companies embedded in the big companies they have the tricks up their sleeves that the market

is in valuing. >> it really is interesting these are massive companies all over a trillion dollars in market value but to their credit the tech giants have tried to maintain their starter mentalities and often i think that has been at the detriment to the stocks because they cost a lot. they can still pay off, i think we should remember that and i don't think investors are paying a lot of attention to it, for instance, alphabet can be the biggest winner and apple has reportedly they get about building the car it is a long shot and if they go there you can make tesla and you mentioned facebook and whatsapp's, they have the massive platform and whatsapp it's almost 2 billion users are roughly to begin users and they're not making money off of it. and transfer applications and whatsapp, that is worth watching.

>> microsoft keeps cruising higher, why is it immune to all of this. >> is amazing and a great question and there's a few things happening with microsoft one that microsoft was in the penalty box 20 years ago they learned around the regulatory battle in antitrust issues and they learned some lessons there. second i would say microsoft is an incredibly diverse company from the cloud to the corporate software to video games, they're really good in all these areas but there also not necessarily the number one player so there little bit less of a target for the country regulators. finally on the reopening where we talked about microsoft isn't quite directing consumer play it is focused on the enterprise, people go back to work there to benefit as much as they did when people were working from home. >> apple is expected to announce a new iphone next month, are you buying it and what is outlook for apple. >> i think there's going to be near-term noise for apple to

because of the reopening but were getting the new iphone in a few weeks and some people think there are going to be that many people buying and there aren't a lot of upgrades, i think i will be buying it and i think investors are under underestimating the opportunity if that's what ends up being called and here's what i think investors should be thinking more about it this is only second iphone that will have 5g in it. i bought the iphone a year ago but i never left my house so i haven't really used 5g and i think were going to reach a point with 5g and people leaving the house where they start to use it and start to see the benefit of being amazingly fast network, the rollout is slow but now they've had 18 months to catch up and i think it's going to drive a lot of upgrade. jack: anybody who does not have an apple 12 won't have a lot of access, thanks a lot in a great insight to these big companies. roundtable members will give their investment ideas to the coming weeks and then compares

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jack: there's a thought-provoking piece in this week's barron's that suggest microchips could become the new oil, can you explain that thesis. >> sure in the 1970s the world ran oil crude prices soared and inflation shot higher, the world runs on semiconductors and now are facing shortages thereto, they're not in crisis levels but the longer that at last the bigger the problem it can be receiving those problems get bigger as we talk we saw them this past week toyota had cut production by 40% because it can get chips in the more used-car prices, new car prices are

rising quickly it's not just cars apple worn chip shortages could be iphone shortages and their use from appliances like refrigerators and tvs and not be lighting up radioshack the way people did at the pump but don't be surprised if we feel inflation just the same. jack: is there any relief in sight? >> the good news we know this problem exist in the chip companies are trying to get past it, i just worry the longer it goes on the bigger problem is going to be. jack: let's go to actionable ideas, alex what do you have for us? >> i'm going with spotify this is when the kathy woods pics that i like the stock is down 30% year-to-date in a billion-dollar buyback it is still losing money but analysts keep her from the corner and it's been a great streaming subscription. jack: i think we all use it, what is your idea this week? >> i took a look at mortgage for my column one was msa financial and a little below book value in this is an area of the market

where you will approach as double digits in this yield about 9%. jack: and 9% yield, thank you for that, thanks alex and ben, all great ideas to read more checkout barron's.com don't forget to follow us on twitter at barron's online, that is all for us, we will see you next week on "barron's roundtable". ♪ >> from the fox studios in new york city this is "maria bartiromo wall street". maria: happy weekend everyone welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was in position to for the week ahead, i am maria bartiromo. the jackson hole conference has arrived beginning next thursday and friday where we are expecting more details of the federal reserve removing stimulus from the economy, after a taper tantrum on wall street this week as potential moves from the f