princeton before he became president. >> they named a school after him and unnamed a school after him. stuart: as we leave you, we have negatives for the market. the dow is down 316. they may get this huge reconciliation bill, all the taxes that go with it, at least that is what the speaker says. that is not good for wall street. we're down 300 points. neil, it is yours. neil: think about it, stuart, also lost in the sauce if they can't get their act together on either of these measures, they can't vote on a short-term funding plan that was agreed to with republicans. that doesn't happen that is immediate concern. they have to do it by tonight. what a mess. thank you, my friend. we're following that as stuart indicated here. everything was going along smoothly on final day of the month, final day of the quarter, we'll be 3/4 of the through the market year when the closing

bell rings today. you knew about all the pieces to keep the government open, raise the debt ceiling eventually. vote on the bipartisan infrastructure plan, come some sort of agreement on the human infrastructure plan, 3 1/2 trillion. maybe make it less than 3 1/2 trillion, two trillion. along the way something happened the push to get a bipartisan vote on smaller lean and mean trillion dollar plan was falling apart because progressives were not getting the assurances they wanted that they were going to deal with the reconciliation plan, the one that needed a simple majority, that would be far bigger, far more in their interests. so the thought was they were holding this hostage. stuart already told you about that, nancy pelosi weighing it will get done. not everyone is so convinced. steny hoyer came to the subject of the limited infrastructure, only plan, whether a vote will come today, he simply said nope.

generally no means no, not yes. markets don't like uncertainty that is building because it could also affect that funding plan to keep the government lights on. remember they have to get that done by midnight tonight. there are ways to rob peter to pay paul, keep the government lights on, all of that. then you're getting into the weeds here where my friend chad pergram is the ultimate expert. he understands those weeds. and there are very, have he tall weeds at that. chad, where are we on all of this? reporter: good afternoon, neil. a government shutdown is doubtful. the senate teed up an interim spending bill through december 3rd. the senate needs 60 yays to pass it. it should not be a problem that vote comes soon t goes to the house. that bill includes money for hurricane relief and afghan refugees, what is up in the air whether democrats approve the first part of president biden's, ambitious domestic agenda. it may spill off the rails if

democrats nix the bipartisan infrastructure bill. liberals are threatening to vote no. if asked the vote will pass, hoyer, said nope. nancy pelosi, isn't concerned. >> we're on a path to win the vote. i don't want to consider any options. maybe we'll have republican votes but i hope as it was bipartisan in the senate. reporter: moderate democrats could revolt on the social spending bill if the house defeats infrastructure today. at least 10 republicans will vote yes. the social spending package is far from complete. west virginia senator joe manchin calls $3.5 trillion fiscal insanity. >> our economy or basically our society moving towards an entitlement mentality, that you're entitled, okay? i'm more after rewarding because i can help those that really need help if those that help themselves do so. reporter: democrats say a

bolstered health care plan in the bill helps them make the case to joe manchin. >> citizens of west virginia start getting dental care they will realize, eyeglasses hearing aids, many are dog that without, once that is in place i think there will be strong support and in in west virginia. reporter: pelosi rarely goes to the board and loses. she assured her members they will get the social spending plan at some point. neil: chad, could she be calling progressives bluff on this? they threaten if we don't have the social spending member nailed down, quasi-nailed downs we'll not vote on the infrastructure only package. it just seems like she is, go ahead and tempt me, i don't think you will do that, what do you think? >> that is a message to her members that she said they would

have a social spending package a reconciliation package, they would get that done. that is the assurance there. she is trying to hold up both ends of the bargain, the bargain with the moderates would vote this week, ostensibly monday on the bipartisan infrastructure plan. what people forget with that, if they blow up the bill, surface transportation programs expire tonight at 11:59. that is epseparate from government funding. she put it up to the end. making the case you don't want the programs to blow up at the very end. this is a very, very delicate balance but again nancy pelosi did not say it would be $3.5 trillion. she said there would be a bill of some sort that was a message to her liberals and begin we've always thought for a long time, the cost of this has to come down, it probably has to come down a lot. and neil, i keep being told that it is not so much the top line price tag of this, it is going

to be what's in the bill. you know they could do something for two years or four years or if they're not doing it for four years do it for two, cheaper that way. they sprinkle around the wealth. everybody gets something. neil: yeah. so it looks good on paper. cutting the extended tax credits of some of these other things that might prove costly have a devil of time reversing down the road in future congresses t can look like it is cheaper when in fact it is not. chad, this is going to be a nightmare. i don't know. you're right in the fire. it feels like a nightmare. chad, thank you very, very much. tom bevan, "realclearpolitics" cofounder. tom, i'm sure market types hearing what chad said about the short-term funding issue, getting it addressed that will be a settled issue, some of them who are am talking to is assured a sure thunk isn't necessarily a sure thing and the implosion it seems happening on the infrastructure only package might be a sign of that.

what do you make of the possibility that that too blows up, that there isn't a possibility of getting this funding issue resolved by midnight tonight? >> i mean, look, it's a mess on capitol hill as chad just outlined. there is a lot of fluidity, a lot of bluffing going on and some serious talk. so i think anything is possible at this point. i would be surprised if they don't actually get the cr through but, in terms of the other things it is not at all clear that nancy pelosi has the votes to get the 1.2 trillion hard infrastructure passed and certainly doesn't seem anywhere getting a consensus on the bigger reconciliation bill that you know, she and biden have been working desperately to try to get something fashioned but it looks like that is nowhere they need it to be right now to win the votes. and a lot of democrats in the house don't want to vote on

anything that will absolutely die in the senate. joe manchin said came out i'm not going to vote pour 3.5 trillion. he hasn't given exact number what he would vote for but he called their current plan fiscal insanity. that is sense how divided different wings of the democratic party are between progressives and moderates and between the house and the gnat. neil: so if i can get back to the infrastructure-only package, promised vote today, seems like nancy pelosi is hopeful can get done. number two, steny hoyer, not so much. i am curious how the vote would break down. she is optimistic like it did in the senate, infrastructure only plan could get a number of republicans on board. in the senate it was 19 republicans. >> right. neil: is it your sense even with opposition of quite a few progressives that she has more wiggle room there because she could get 10 to 12 republican votes in the house?

>> yes but you know, with margins this thin, right, i don't think those 10 or 12 republicans are necessarily guaranteed. if nancy pelosi is, is relying on those votes to be there in the final analysis and republicans decide it is difference between giving the democrats and pelosi a win or not, you know, that equation could change. so i think she needs to not have a wholesale defection by progressives and not just rely entirely on republicans. so we'll see. again, i think democrats, the political calculus here i've been saying for weeks it would be absolutely incredible if the democrats cannot manage to take the win that they have right in front of them on the table. i think at the end of the day when push comes to shove, they have to get this done. otherwise it will blow up, the president's entire domestic agenda and that's not where they

want to be. neil: you know, finally just to be clear, the house and senate are expected to pass short term bills to fund the government. that is taken as a given but little more than a few hours ago, tom it, was taken as a given we would get a vote on the infrastructure package that in fact would pass. now not so much. the markets are at session lows right now. could any of that, not that this is just reading the markets, this fear even the short-term funding thing could be in doubt in this environment. do you buy that. forget the market reaction, that fear it might not happen now? >> well i mean, look, anytime there is this kind of chaos it generates fear because there sun predictability, we don't know exactly will happen. could the cr blow up? sure it could. i think it is still unlikely at this point because you know, the consequences of that would be you know, catastrophic. on number about different

levels. so i think it is unlikely that they don't get it through but absolutely, in this kind of environment, neil, anything is possible. we might see, this is why nancy pelosi, if you saw her on the phone at that congressional baseball game last night, you know, she is really, this is the biggest challenge she has faced, people talk she knows how to win, she knows how to count votes, she will not put this on the floor, hard infrastructure bill unless she has the votes, look i don't know that she has and she is really up against it right now. the stakes could not possibly be higher for the president and for the democratic party. so i think anything is possible at this point. neil: all right, we'll watch it very closely, tom, appreciate your expertise as always, my friend. if you can see on the lower right-hand portion of the screen, we're down about 422 points. wall street abhors uncertainty, that of course is in high order right now. a lot of uncertainty. lauren simonetti following all of this as we try to wrap up the month, the quarter, 3/4 into the

year. what do you have for us, lauren? lauren: so much, going on, neil. i want to say sayonara to september t was a rough one. the dow this month lost 970 points. by far its worst month of the year. january as you can see it was another bad month down 623. so goes january sew goes the year, it could be, but the dow is still up a remarkable 12% when looking year-to-date. the nasdaq higher by about the same. s&p 500 higher by 15 percent. so the gains for the year are holding leadership is changing, neil. that is evident this month when energy started to break out. when you look on a sector basis energy gained 10% in september, the strongest sector by far but for the three months ending in september, that is the end of the quarter, energy is down 1.7%. so we've seen this handoff from

growth to value. why tech, communication services, they're up, at least 2% each this quarter. but they're down and they're down sharply this month between four and 6%. if you look at the "faang" stocks, mine necessary netflix. facebook, amazon, apple and google, they lost $415 billion in value this month alone and the reason for that is higher bond yields. higher racism pack tech's growth and could make their future cash flows less valuable. it's a reckoning we really saw pronounced this week where the nasdaq is down, where is it, 4% on the week but look the dow is only down 2 1/2% and that is after after the carnage we saw on tuesday, big dive of 600 points. expect more swings tomorrow with everything going on in d.c. with october, it is october, it is a violent month for the stock market but it usually starts off as favorable quarter for the

year. the holiday season typically brings investors some cheer. that is where we stand. a lot going on. neil: thank you very much, lauren simonetti on all of that. i want to go to luke lloyd now as the dow gets to underwater this day, this week and technically under water for the month and the quarter itself. that is an interesting development in of itself. the s&p, not in that same neck of the woods here. it is looking at the sixth up quarter in a row at least where things stand now. they could change. look what do you make of how things are sorting out today? >> well, neil, the fact of the matter is in regards to the debt ceiling and discussions debt is like a drug. the more you take the more you want. why do you think the u.s. government debt is so high right now? politicians don't think twice before spending our money, right? i go back to when i was a kid when my parents told me money doesn't grow on trees.

i wish politicians were told the same thing going up. if a deal is not reached, borrowing costs increase, social security checks are delayed and veterans will not receive benefits. what i find ironic always about raising debt ceiling, not about lowering spending and cutting costs. we continue to print debt but don't focus on cost control. by the 11th hour, the government isn't risking shutting down the economy that means less votes for them. i think they will come to some sort of a deal. during the typical government shutdowns the markets rose 1%. i don't think it is a reason to sell your stocks but it is definitely a long term concern for the long term economy. neil: i could flip it around, loong, it really depends on your point of view of course, if you're worried about tax hikes and all the rest that are coming in the large 3 1/2 trillion dollar package, looks like that is put off, if not out right doomed investors might welcome that. we're not at that stage

obviously. they don't like the uncertainty of the smaller infrastructure package they do like, just keeping the government open which they would prefer but i'm wondering, when they think this through, the possibility that tax hikes that they abhor might be delayed, even denied, then what? >> if we don't get a 3 1/2 trillion dollars, that means we don't have to raise taxes as much to pay for that right? the market will love that. neil: right. >> what i want to see a watered down version of the tax bill. i think that is much better for the economy and the stock market. every dollar spent given to the government is a dollar isn't spent efficiently by the private sector. the private sector always does better investing their capital. that is essentially what we're doing, we're giving taxes to the government, we're giving them our money to spend somewhere else for the benefit of us. government is not very good at that the higher tax bill is a death threat to small business and that is my biggest concern. i like to see us not get 3 1/2 trillion dollars, get a much

more reasonable package. i think wall street will like that as well. if we get the higher taxes death threat on small business, wall street will take more market share from small business. we'll see a pullback in the market from the higher taxes initially but in the long term i think it might be beneficial for wall street taking market share from small business which isn't good for the long term economy because small business makes up 50% of our economy. neil: very nicely explained, luke, i appreciate that. i'm sure our viewers do as well. thank you very much, luke lloyd on all of that. we'll take a quick break here but just to put this in perspective, we're really looking at four different pieces to a puzzle, deciding to when to put them in place. one is the government funding that technically ends tonight if they don't find a way to come up with it. we're confident with our guests, it's a gimme. i'm old enough to remember, it's a gimme. it will happen. just slow down on that. then the debt limit. democrats would like to raise

that through reconciliation which, you know, fields a lot of their fiscal measures from filibuster. they would prefer that. then you have the infrastructure only plan that all of a sudden was supposed to be voted on today. looks unlikely today. that too could change, steny hoyer the number two in the house parting company with nancy pelosi. he doesn't seem confident that it will come to fruition. finally that social policy reconciliation, build back better human infrastructure final piece of this puzzle. what is the technical term i'm looking for? mess, it's a mess. no one is on the same page. they're fighting and sniping at each other. like growing up in an italian family, throwing pieces of bread at each other but they're of course not all italian, are they? we'll have more after this. ♪.

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♪. neil: all right, taking you to joe manchin speaking to reporters on capitol hill right now, the man of the hour right now. not only for his comments that this whole package, the humanitarian infrastructure package is the definition of fiscal sanity. breaking news here, he thinks that package has to be a lot smaller, like 1 1/2 trillion. let's say progressives are not keen on that. joe manchin right now. >> if that means no infrastructure bill at all will you still stick with 1.5 trillion? >> i've been up front and very fair. the bottom line, 1.5 for this infrastructure, not the infrastructure but for the reconciliation bill. you have 1.1, 1.2 on the infrastructure bill and you have another 250 billion for the usica bill. there is awful lot. we spent 5.4. >> are you willing to take zero? >> that is up to them. they will be there, not me. >> asking natural gas be part of

the clean energy program without carbon capture, is that the -- >> natural gas be what? >> natural gas has to be part of clean energy component. >> it has to be. i'm for all of the above. i'm for clean energy and producing amount of energy we need to make sure we have enough. >> no carbon capture. >> no carbon capture because we haven't go into that point. it is so expensive it makes it improbable to do. we're trying to find a way forward. i'm just not not for giving public companies who have shareholders public dollars free when i know they will be very profitable at the end whatever we do. all i'm asking for, throw ourselves in the position, front the money from low interest loans shouldn't we get it back when profits start flowing so we don't incur more debt. >> you no senator sanders and

others have 3 1/2 number. have you had any conversations with anybody how you bridge the gap between 3 1/2? what would you take out? are those conversations happening between you and everyone else? >> not at this time. people pretty much know where i've been all along. i said this, if you had x-amount of dollars in your paycheck and you wanted to buy something, that what you wanted to buy is not affordable to buy right now, you save up for later. what is the priorities, children, pre-k, i'm strong on pre-k. child care, child tax credits, do that in compassionate way, targeted. basically median income is $68,000 in america. can't we use targeted? we have 90 million people that have, they file tax returns for $50,000 or less. let's target it. i don't think a person that is making 2, 3, 400,000 or in as much need as person on lower end. if you have x-amount, who do you help. that is all i'm saying. >> what about, does the report need to take more of a

leadership role here? >> no -- >> not -- together. >> i have had great conversations. the president, i admire the president, i really do. sometimes we have a different position or a different pathway but his compassion for our children, his compassion for child tax credits, for working families, i accommodative the same passion. i come out little bit different but i have the same passion. >> are you concerned at all, i mean, you say that you made yourself very, very clear this entire time but you talk to anybody over there they say they have no idea what you're wanting up until yesterday. >> i was -- guess maybe we are far apart because we consider they are far apart. i have always been of the inclination and leadership, you take the wins when you get receive them. you bring people together best you can and move forward. we're there now, move forward. hopefully we can anyway. >> are you -- >> do you have a time on a deal?

do you have a latest state to get done? >> timeline -- [inaudible]. >> senator, do you think the president needs to come up here, sir. >> tax code, tax code. it will take some time. we're dealing in good faith. i'm trying to be honest and up front as i can. >> a date you like to get it done? >> five trillion dollar number. >> he wants, he really is sincere. he likes more than that mr. president i understand that. you know, hopefully you can respect me. he has been so respect if you recall. hey, joe, i never ask you to go against your convictions. we have a lot help same things, help children, want rich to pay fair share. do tax reform i'm all for it. basically fix our drug prices where our medicare we should be able to. i've been very passionate about that. >> won't this tank --

>> it will not tank -- [all talking at once] >> thank you for holding that. kelly? neil: all right. you've been listening to joe manchin. he and kyrsten sinema are probably the two most ought-after senators right now. they're holdouts on the 3 1/2 trillion dollar package, mansion made news finally attaching a number for him would be at least more preferred over all human infrastructure package. not 3 1/2 trillion, more like 1 1/2 trillion. i can tell you already, without much, having to check around on this, progressives are going to be apoplectic over that. it is not only two trillion dollars cheaper on paper than what they wanted but it is nowhere near the 2 1/2 trillion that at a bare minimum even some of the more accommodating progressives had said they could, quote, unquote, tolerate.

what's more, he opened the possibility this could drag on a while. now the dragging on a while is an interesting development. the same progressives are the ones who are not going to move on this infrastructure only package that roughly 1.2 package infrastructure largely for infrastructure but clearly not entirely but it is better than nothing. a lot of moderate democrats will say, we need a win on this victory for the president and the party. progressives wanted a guarranty that the human infrastructure part, far more costly reconciliation package behind it is something they wanted assurances on. nancy pelosi was very coy on this particular subject saying that she thinks they can make progress on that without ever referring to the cost for that, but the big news here, from joe manchin, who wields considerable clout in a 50-50 senate, we have

still not heard from arizona senator kyrsten sinema what her figure will be, closer to 1 1/2 trillion joe manchin mentioned or splitting difference the 3 1/2 trillion that progressives are pounding. the fact joe manchin is saying this, tells you he would be a no vote at 3 1/2 trillion, they can't afford to lose him assuming every republican votes against this. they lose him. they lost this. this is not happening. karen harvard of the american gas association president. karen, i want to get into the energy side of this because joe manchin raised concerns about necessarily penalizing nat-gas, this push for climate change and related clean energy push here, that unfairly penalizes nat-gas but bigger message, i'm not on board with any of this as things stand now. what do you think ? >> well i mean he is absolutely right, natural gas has to be at the table. he has a strong, powerful voice

and he is using it. we talk a lot what we'll spend money on but we don't talk enough where we find the money. senator manchin is very concerned about a provision in the reconciliation package a natural gas tax. it's a tax on what people will be paying for natural gas in their homes and their businesses, just because they're looking for revenue. and that is very troublesome, particularly as you talked about, the gas market is the prices are going up. neil: how much further up do you think they're going? it is pretty proannounced now and consistent. you talk about demand and post-pandemic world i get that but there are a lot of other factors at play here, sort it out? >> you're absolutely right. there is a silver lining. the economy is rebounding, demand is going up but supply has not caught up. we had a cold winter here and in europe, we used a lot of natural

gas. they had a hot summer in europe and used gas instead of high troh electric and wind didn't perform. right now europe natural gas storage what you rely on in winter is a decade low. here in the united states we're a little better off, ours is below 7% average and of course the administration put a pause on new federalissing. we're still recovering from ida in gulf of mexico. production has not returned yet either. it's a coming storm. how high will it go? we'll be more inoculated here in the united states with our customers. why? because we hedge, we buy long term contracts for natural gas. in europe they're relying on the spot market largely. neil: they are indeed. karen, thank you for your patience through joe manchin's remarks, putting them in perspective. i appreciate your perspective. just to update you right now on dramatic developments in the back and forth on capitol hill,

joe manchin finally attach ad figure what he thinks would be a doable, doable infrastructure package, something to meet the needs of the people, at same time not go overboard on the spending. he said he raised this with the president when he spoke to him yesterday including the 1 1/2 trillion dollar spending kind of target that he wants. we're still waiting to hear from kyrsten sinema, another senator on the democratic side of the aisle has been very, very leery of the 3 1/2 trillion dollar price tag. we have not yet heard from a number of progressives who are no doubt going to be fuming at this. i can guarranty you that. they already look at these two senators with great suspicion, that they're not team players. you don't even want to repeat what bernie sanders said on this moderation of a package he thinks is long overdue. believe it or not, they're in the camp that says 1 1/2 trillion or anything less than

3 trillion is chump change. times we live in, just to put this in perspective. even at 1 1/2 trillion dollars for this package, lean and mean as it might appear to be some progressives, it is what the entire debt was when ronald reagan assumed office a mere 40 years ago. wow. more of a this. ♪. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones what makes new salonpas arthritis gel so good for arthritis pain? i'm so glad we did this. salonpas contains the most prescribed topical pain relief ingredient. it's clinically proven, reduces inflammation and comes in original prescription strength. salonpas. it's good medicine.

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"is this the end of the world?" someone asked me recently, "are we heading for armageddon?" i said, "we need not fear the future. when you know jesus as your savior and lord, you can have true peace regardless of what the future holds. will you come to him?" - [narrator] visit findingtruepeace.com to find out more. ♪. neil: all right, i told you a matter of minutes before we start hearing from some of the progressives in washington. in the united states senate the latest right now senator tammy baldwin, the democrat from wisconsin has said when hearing of joe manchin's stance on 1 1/2 trillion that is his figure for a package that otherwise has a going rate of 3 1/2 trillion he

is too focused on the numbers. you can say that, the matter of fact it is all about the numbers. joe manchin making the news i already discussed the fact with the president last night, 1 1/2 trillion was his figure on this package. progressives not at all happy about that because he is a lynchpin vote, as things stand now he would be a no vote in the 50-50 senate. you know the drill. that torpedoes this thing, whether the president and others can accommodate him on other issues, whether that is a drop dead, that is the final figure, anyone's guess. let's go to cynthia lummis the republican senator from the beautiful state of wyoming. what i love about senator loomis, very consistent about debt, both parties adding to it, both parties working hard, said they would work hard to avoid compounding the problem. senator, very good to have you. first off the reaction to joe manchin?

>> well, neil, he have put out a great statement yesterday, principle that now doesn't look as important because he does want to continue to spend. now think about this. this is, they have already spent 1.9 trillion in the spring. 550 billion more on infrastructure than we could document was necessary. all of the discussion, whether it is coming from joe manchin or the progressives is about how much we're going to spend, not a single person is talking about how we can reform things so we're not $28 trillion in debt. it is as if the debt is forgotten about. if we're just bidding with each other how much money we can spend without any thought about how in debt we are, how it is hurting our economy, how it is

going to contribute to difficult times in the future. this is stunningly irresponsible. neil: you know, you heard it from both sides, criticizing overspending on the part of republicans and democrats so it kind of puts you in a weird camp, no offense senator, but you have been calling out on this. i'm just curious now, is it your understanding, whatever your personal views senator manchin won't move from that figure? you're quite right it will add to the debt. quite right to say what the president said, there is no zero cost to this. there is a cost. it adds to our red ink but do you think that joe manchin can be moved from that number? because i get a feeling senator, you're closer to this than i am, that progressives are not going to move in his direction, at least not that low, so what do you think? >> we've seen joe manchin stake

out positions that were to the right of his conference before only to capitulate to their leadership later. i hope that doesn't happen this time but, his track record is to capitulate. it is going to be important for everyone who wants him to stay strong to talk to him frequently, reinforce his position, hope that senator sinema will reinforce his position. she is very strong and so the fact that they are speaking for people who don't want to speak up within the democrat senate caucus is really, really helpful. neil: you know, senator, you're exactly right on joe manchin and how he ends up voting you know, the democratic position. i think in the obama administration he was a 95 plus

percent voter in agreement with obama priorities. so his argument has been that sets the stage for voting on something, going a little lower or doesn't spend as much. nevertheless he does go along with democrats and they're going to be really forcing him to change his mind. do you think he will? >> well, he, fortunately at this time he has laid down a number. he has been specific. and now they can begin, what i fear will be a negotiation. i'm worried the negotiation will be between 1.5 and 3.5 and as we know the 3.5 number is illusory. if you look for what the committee for responsible federal budget put out which is more accurate, the expenditure over 10 years is more like five

trillion and at the end of their planned expenditures, even the democrats admit the national debt will be $45 trillion. now every government that has gone over 100% of gdp has faced kind of a black swan moment, a crisis, that is precipitated by being that deeply in debt. i hope when joe manchin and his colleagues in the democrat caucus get together to talk about these numbers, that they will put that number on the table. that number being we're going to be over 100% of gdp in debt. and we're getting into some dark water here. neil: that is very good way to characterize it. cynthia lummis, thank you very much. the wyoming senator has her debts about the debt we're filing up. she is not alone. the senate meanwhile will take

up the short-term funding measure, keep the government lights on to get it over to the house, then to get it over to the president to sign tonight. so that at least they can get to these other matters. it is not a gimme. i told you about anytime washington says it's a gimme, it never is, one hurdle seems potentially clearable in the senate for one measure, just keeping the government lights on and avoiding anything more serious after midnight tonight. stay with us. ♪

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and now it is up for a vote in the house. that is looking debatable right now. they're not going to be too pleased with the other little bombshell that joe manchin dropped, that is the 3 1/2 trillion dollar figure to him is outlandish, should be more like 1 1/2 trillion dollars. that might explain nancy pelosi's kind of cagey response to whether the reconciliation package like this human infrastructure is now often referred to for simple majority vote. progressives wanted assurances that would be done, that would clear that hurdle before they even considered voting on the trillion dollar infrastructure only plan. now that joe man:has -- manchin moved the needle so low, low to them, they will not be happy and they will not sign on to voting on a infrastructure only package. linkage is very alive and well to them. they don't really appreciate them, not only putting kibosh on

linkage and the importance at least to them, attaching a dollar figure to what they're doing, the 3 1/2 trillion dollars as in his words, the very definition of fiscal insanity. that is not a way to make friends with the far, far left but again joe manchin has put himself in this position here, hasn't he? we're awaiting to hear from krysten sinema the arizona senator who has doubts about the size of this price tag. she has not attach ad number what would be acceptable to her. doesn't matter. the democrats cannot lose a single vote. assuming not a single republican would vote for this. jackie deangelis joins me in new york. jackie, if you think about it, joe manchin was a human grenada. obviously he relishes the flexibility, that the talked to the president about this 1 1/2 trillion dollar idea of his last

night but the rest, the democratic party might not be on board with that figure. where are we going? >> listen, sometimes i think you have to take this unpopular view, right? that is what he is doing. he might be a human grenade with respect to the negotiations going on. what it comes to the wall street, when it comes to the market it, doesn't want to see this kind of spending, neil. one of the biggest frustrations, problems, challenges, why we're down 400 points today, why we're seeing choppy trade because of inflation, fears about that going forward. spend this kind of money like a drunken sailor, that inflation will be here longer than anybody would like to see it. that is problem number one. problem number two, you start the week calling it hell week in washington. sure the market doesn't like uncertainty around watching these things very closely. not only spending and infrastructure. watching the debt ceiling. there might be a temporary bandaid for that. eventually that will be part of the conversation again. you look at rising interest

rates and what powell is doing and sort of you have the perfect storm here to see a lot of red. i'm not surprised by wall street's reaction to this. neil: interesting wall street reaction to, if they really, i know they don't like uncertainty and all the uncertainty around where all of this is going including even the short-term funding package seems like a gimme, what i've been saying anything but in these very volatile times, but it would also mean delaying tax increases. that they are not too keen on, or at least limiting them if it's a smaller package. so that part of the equation i would think they would like just isn't registering yet? >> i don't think so. sometimes there is a little bit after lag effect or delayed reaction in the market. it focuses what is happening right now this moment. yes, wall street doesn't want to see the tax inincreases that we know. it is weighing out everything and trying to take the circumstances all together. the tax increases, not having them on the table, at least for

a while would certainly help things the not enough to get the spending go through. there are, cheer wall street with reaction to that the fed could act, that could pour cold water on it. neil: jackie, thank you very much for that. jackie deangelis following these developments. merely coincidence, that she is wearing red right now. what is happening. let's go to edward lawrence in washington. edward, if you think about it, joe manchin changed the debate entirely. it might be a negotiating measure. you buy a car, tell the salesman, all right i want to pay half what you're telling me, you go back and forth, back and forth. nevertheless, it's a timing issue here. progressives aren't going to like it. they might hold off on the infrastructure only package. in other words, it stands to you know explode a lot of gimmes here, right? >> what really strikes me, neil, if you take a step back from all

of this, negotiating happened behind closed doors has come to the fore front. we're seeing negotiations happening on live television. as senator joe manchin coming out saying where he is, where his number is, 1.5 trillion. seems like that gap, progressives source was telling fox news yesterday they would not combee low 2.5 trillion. senator manchin at 1.5 trillion, progressives at 2.5 trillion, that gap will be very difficult to overcome. that is something house speaker nancy pelosi is trying to do. the see the man of the hour on your screen there. he is walking a tight line, a tightrope with this. he says that he can't accept an entitlement society and that is the current form of the reconciliation bill, what it looks like. house speaker coming out saying that she believes that they can, there is still working on the reconciliation bill and what substance in the reconciliation bill is usable for senator. >> manchin, for others. she is obviously sending up a

balloon on this. she mad assurances to progressives get the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed. put them on notice. listen what she said on the assurance. >> it is impossible for people to vote for it without reassurances that the reconciliation bill will occur and it will occur. reporter: that is the note, hey progressives, vote for this bipartisan infrastructure bill and she will get the reconciliation bill across the finish line. she didn't designate how big the bill would be you heard there. she will get that reconciliation bill across the finish line. very interesting what is happening where the negotiations have now spilled out into the public. back to you. neil: they have spilled out. good way to describe it. edward. thank you very much. as edward pointed out, progressives got shocker. i have a feeling nancy pelosi knew about it that it would be a much lower figure from joe

manchin. what it means that progressives have to take the speaker at her word. there will be a vote on this. it will be quasi-linked. it just won't be the vote that they wanted on the figure that they wanted, and the hope is that they will have to take the speaker at her word. everything will be right in the end. this time i'm getting hint from a lot of these progress i was, oh, no, don't you even think about it. you have the best pizza in town and the worst wait times. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

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neil: i want to take you to the progressive caucus leader in the house still confident they can cobble together a deal not too pleased with the deal that joe manchin, senator moderate democrat is not keen on the price tag and wants to bring it down to one and a half trillion dollars, she's trying to be diplomatic but it's hard. >> i think the other piece the chairwoman has repeated and it keeps getting lost, this is not a progressive agenda, we are fighting for the bill back better agenda which is the president's agenda. if the senator thinks more democrats is how you get it done then that's something he should state to the president because the president's agenda and you're trying to share that the past the success in that agenda if we pass the info structure

bill alone we are not even accomplishing 10%, the majority of the agenda that the president ran down the delivered is the house in the senate in the white house is in the bill back better agenda, if we fail to deliver on that promise we have failed the american people, we are not in the business of wasting this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to deliver on the promises we have made an childcare, healthcare, and addressing our climate infrastructure and addressing our standard infrastructure as well. >> now that joe manchin has laid down his marker 1.5 trillion will progressive's counter with another number? >> no go stations are going on as i understand that the white house. the speaker has committed to us nothing will be agreed to because she knows that we have to sign off on it.

there's too many of us that have been very clear that we get it deliver on the entirety of the president's agenda. >> to delay the vote? >> we did not talk about that she knows she's a master vote counter, she said last week she does not bring bills to the floor that are going to fail and she knows because the been very transparent and clear where our members are, there are the votes to pass it. >> will you vote the way the president asks you to vote if it comes under compromise between the president and the senate on some sort of middle ground, the president's agenda if he comes to you and says this is where entered what we've got houston cinema and joe manchin is that what you will do. >> we always take the president calls, he has been very clear that he wants us to deliver the entirety of his agenda.

>> congressman joe manchin said you guys were not. >> i don't think you've asked the question yet. >> on the reconciliation bill was part of the legacy to guarantee it was past was her word not good enough, did she do everything she could to get a pass. >> the speaker understands it's not about the speakers word that word worried, going beyond trust to verify is about unfortunately some senators and some of our colleagues on the house floor. i wanted to make sure you got the number 4% of democrats who are opposing passing the president's agenda right now, that is the group that is concerned about. this is not about trusting the speaker entrusting the president, it's really about the vote as an ironclad assurance in the senate. i promised you early on i could not hear you back there. >> will you meet with senator joe manchin. >> anytime, were all prepared.

>> are you talking in his office. >> he has not reached out, he reached out to some of our colleagues and asked if we would meet with him, i said absolutely, i spoke with kyrsten sinema, were ready to do whatever we can to deliver entirety of the president's agenda and as the speaker were happy to stay here every day until we get this done we don't need to go home, wilbur twitty for hours, what ep's every night, you'll be sick of us will do whatever it takes. >> you know repeatedly that you want to make sure the bill has applied priorities that progressives have put forward. can that be done with a $1.5 trillion reconciliation package. >> there is no number, i do not have a number. >> that's what he tells you, that's not what ultimately is going to happen. whatever, i don't have an offer in front of me, my number is 3.5, our number is 3.5 a 70 is a

different offer then they can put on the table, you don't negotiate against yourself, if you go to buy a house you don't put on an offer and before an offer is put on the table suddenly say i'm willing to go down another hundred thousand. has anybody done that, that's not how we negotiate we've said consistently, if you don't like us, the 4%, don't like it, we understand we all have to come to the table, tell us what you want and will figure out whether or not we can get there. >> thank you congresswoman. >> thank you. neil: one of the startling things, we came in a little bit late, you been listening to pramila jayapal the congresswoman who runs the aggressive caucus and also serving on the aggressive caucus. to the progressives that don't want to budge too much were not

too pleased by this revelation that joe manchin has put a number to what he thinks is impassable and doable in his eyes, that is not three and half trillion, more like one and a half trillion dollars, it's interesting to point out that if things stand out, neither of these progressives are on board with voting on infrastructure only package until the reconciliation package is nailed down on the senate and the house, it also goes by the social policy reconciliation and three and half trillion dollar plan in the bill back better package. right now, these women see it speaking for the progressive caucus and quite a few members representing that they cannot and do not plan to vote on this infrastructure package slated today until this other stuff is resolved. again, miraculous things can happen, i want to go to chad

pergram on where this stands right now, what can you tell us. >> they have not officially said there gonna have the rollcall vote on the infrastructure bill today, the plan is to do what house speaker nancy pelosi indicated to do, she thought they were in a good place, the majority leader said he couldn't guarantee they would have the vote and pass the bill josh gottheimer the democratic argus men from new jersey who is the co-chair of the bipartisan problem solvers caucus, he indicated things would pass, a brief conversation with him and he talked to some of the reporters outside of the speaker's office around noon and he thought it would pass later today. but you don't know until you called about. here is the other dynamic, maybe nancy pelosi does not need all of the liberal democrats. she forges ahead and she could lose depended on how many republicans are willing to vote yes, 15 or 20, it's unclear at

that stage it's a distinct possibility. if you have that many of the republican side of the aisle, i'm told there is ten yen more who would vote for the infrastructure package, kevin mccarthy, the bow nor the leader tried to pin him down during his press conference as to how many republicans would vote for this and he was very cagey. we think we will have a bow on infrastructure later today but again, the question is if the liberals go in and vote no, maybe they know they can vote no because they know nancy pelosi has the vote and they're still going to get, she assured members during her press conference that there would be some form of a reconciliation bill later. that is a framework they would use for the social spending package regardless of what the dollar figure is. i want to keep coming back to something i've been told for several days, it's not about the dollar figure, it's not about the math with the top line, it's about the policies and what they put into that maybe there's

environmental thanks for the left, maybe there's some things that makes joe manchin happy, then everybody get something and they get past the bill and is not so much about the dollar figure, joe manchin to be clear after we learned about this conversation and a memo from the summertime that he was willing to spend $1.5 trillion, he said for days i'm not talking about a dollar figure, he said were not talking dollars and cents and that is simply not accurate. neil: if they go ahead and roll the dice and try elbow on infrastructure package today and to your point that nancy pelosi might have already figured the number of progressives will vote against her or not vote. she must have enough republican votes to whether that. but how many would she need you talking about a balance of three in the house typically if it went just along party lines but are there ten, a dozen

republican votes in their, what does the math tell you? >> i was told by math counters on capitol hill, they thought the need for 12 or 13 republicans they could probably bring those across the finish line but if you get in the 40 or 50 range, that's a real problem. the other thing i will say historically it is harder for one leader, speaker or leader on one side of the aisle to depend on votes from the other side probably the best example i've ever seen of this was the famous tarp vote that died in september of 2008, this is where democrats were banking on republicans in the house of representatives under a republican administration to deliver the remainder of the boats and it just didn't happen. when you're dealing with the other side that starts to get a little bit flaky. the other thing even though we have said that nancy pelosi does not go to the floor in lose votes, that is something she

said several times recently, maybe she needs to have the vote fail so she can go to both sides of her caucus, go to the moderates in the liberals and say do you really want to undercut the entire party and everything that were trying to do and also the democratic president joe biden, that would be an extreme measure, that is significant but maybe it has to come to that we just don't know, those experiences have sometimes not been tried. again i'll go back to tarp that is precisely what happened with tarp, graded we have a lot of other economic circumstances it was teetering on a fiscal edge at that stage what happened once the vote failed they were able to make some changes and pass it through the senate and come back and move it to the house the reason everyone understood how dire things were. that was for the entire country here were talking about a political gambit democrats want to undercut their own president

and in the end get nothing moderate centrist democrat or a liberal like ocasio-cortez or pramila jayapal or ilhan omar. i always say don't tell me what you looking at, show me it if you show people that you've undercut the agenda in the eyes of nancy pelosi maybe they're able to come back and pass something. neil: the one thing i remember about the relief program that was being pushed to save off this financial crisis as well was when it failed the markel failed him as a hundred points. that changed a lot of things they race back to come up with something that would be passed what was but a market freefall into thinking that got them going i'm wondering if it has to take something like that to do the same now. >> you're already having a market freefall when it comes to

political numbers on capitol hill, members are very concerned about the reelection and the midterms, the very concerned about the soft pull numbers for joe biden so you could see, again do they really want to undercut the president of the united states and also the fact that they get nothing, that would be the market freefall but you will do to something else coming up they have decided for the time being not to address the debt ceiling they have a little more time, there's gonna be a bill that will pass in the house and senate today and since we've been on the air i'm looking that the senate started its vote to fund the government through december 3 that will likely pass and then they will move on to the house, that is not a crisis but they have to deal with the debt ceiling by the end of october. we talked about this on the air on the past few weeks, you can see a scenario where the only train leaving the station as a reconciliation and a need to deal with the debt ceiling even though they have been resistant

to doing that so far, they need to pass a social spending bill they wanted to infrastructure and they need to do everything together in this big mega bill if you want to see real-time impacts and the actual stock market that could force them to do it that way come the 18th of october. neil: there is an argument that this whole process and the craziness of it, is it exactly building faith in the financial community, i remember we went back into thousand 11 and avoided a government shutdown, the s&p had downgraded the aaa credit rating and it was because of the back-and-forth and trying to decide who's on first that prompted this move, i'm

wondering if the market is saying something like that could happen again even if they solve the problems because of the torturous way they went about it. >> that was the issue with s&p, back about ten years ago they did lift the debt ceiling in time, they said that you did damage. maybe again, we might be done to apples and oranges maybe they have to figure out something separately about these two things aside so further doing what they have to do, only the things that they have to do, they had to fund the government today, the doing as we speak in the roll call vote that is hot as we speak that is one step into weeks they turn around and they ring the fire alarm at the capital and they have to deal with the debt ceiling and where this tinted infrastructure if it blows up today and reconciliation that goes by the wayside for the time being. nancy pelosi got an interesting

question today in her press conference, she was asked when you have of three vote in the house of representatives is it worth trying to do all of the big things and to nancy pelosi, i talk all the time it's about the math, you don't get style points for winning something 40 or 50 votes. nancy pelosi's calling card for a long time has been winning big votes by one or two tallies, she figures she could do a big bill, whatever that sizes are infrastructure, whatever that looks like and you pass it by a vote or two you don't get the style points is not the olympics were you had to do the compulsory figures in figure skating and then get judged. this is pass fail, really. neil: they do that with swimming, that when noise mystifies me. >> this is like synchronized swimming speed when you are absolutely right, were all underwater on this.

let me leave you with this one question as it stands now, you talk about the senate taking up the funding measure should go up without a hitch, before midnight tonight, the only is a temporary issue, the far more taking timebomb, is it not? >> this funds the government until december 3, that's another crack at the apple they've not done reconciliation, i'm giving you these temple markers, middle of october the 18th that's another way, the debt ceiling is the bigger problem and maybe that's the argument the speaker of the house has been making or has made to her members and we have a real problem dealing with the debt ceiling, are you really going to blow up the markets and not get something that we can get now on infrastructure bill and maybe the social spending

package now and face that. it's really belated when i've been dealing with for issues, funding the government, the debt ceiling, the infrastructure bill in the social spending planned but in reality, they truly are all connected. neil: remarkable young man, thank you very much. do not let perfection be the enemy of the good

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liberal. all they need to do is we have to elect more elect more liberals. neil: joe manchin saying that is is figure what it naturally and reconciliation package it's also been called the bill back better, social policy reconciliation they don't call it infrastructure anymore, is not human infrastructure anymore, we moved on but some of the other titles are just that. what i can call is very expensive one and half trillion dollars that seems like an unlikely figure for progressives to level down to, the confusion over this, you can see in the lower right portion, what is added to the selling not that they embrace a financial community all the spending but even on the infrastructure only plan they kind of like that very stimulative without wasting too much, that is a leap to say that's the case but that was

looking doable with my come up for a vote, does seem to be increasingly unlikely today, i'm talking about the 1.2 trillion other infrastructure and only plan the other one seems to be pushback. dan following all of this, how do you explain the market's reaction to all of this, the selloff. >> the market reaction surprises me a little bit, i'll tell you why, we know the market doesn't like uncertainty, there is chaos in washington, that is a certainty, that is not uncertain. to the extent that this bill that the bill back better bill should it's going to get water down is a good thing for wall street. i'm not sure why they're having such a knee-jerk reaction. the bill is going to pass eventually.

is it going to be 1.5 trillion, 2.5 trillion, whatever that number is is going to pass. along with that, tax increases are coming. wall street has to build all the sin. as far as people say it's reacting to washington, i just think that is the case. neil: i have another view on wall street's reaction isn't what it will ultimately be, when cooler heads start prevailing or at least that's the hope they'll assess, if this thing is delayed or ratcheted down, so are the tax hikes that come with all of this, the best case scenario for many of them, doesn't happen at all, worst case it does happen but it is delayed and is not nearly as onerous, what you make of that. >> the people that they are

targeting here, the wealthy and, corporations, i don't know if those taxes are necessarily going to get water down. in spite of the fact that the president nancy pelosi said this three and a half trillion dollar bill actually doesn't cost anything, i don't think anyone is actually believing that. talk about a disingenuous, and quite frankly it is insulting, do people really believe that the government can spend three and half trillion dollars and somehow didn't cost anything, the federal government has no money, it is our money, the taxpayers so nothing is ever free when the government is spending money. neil: i did get a kick out of that, there is no cost to that,

the only thing i can make is analogous if you have a mortgage payment due, if you have the money to make the mortgage payment there's no cost to it, there was a cost whether you have the money or not you paid the mortgage payment, that nonsense notwithstanding i wonder what the market get more worried if it looks like the debt ceiling is going to be a little too close for comfort, weird he did the 78, 79 times, over the last decade or so so were getting used to it, are weakening too used to it we will settle this and resolve this, what do you think. >> i think ultimately it gets settled, the reasoning goes beyond partisan politics, you start to really get into the financial security of the country. they did this in the obama presidency and we got downgraded, that was a big issue, i can imagine that they

would let it go so far that you actually throw the entire country into turmoil. if that happens everyone who is in office in some way can get blamed for, what is most important to everybody in washington, d.c. is getting reelected. if that is in jeopardy they're good about whatever way is necessary. ultimately the debt ceiling issue will be addressed and there could be a game of chicken going on for a while and that is not good but ultimately gets resolved and i think the market will probably be impacted during the process but ultimately it comes around. neil: thank you, following all these developments and our own charlie gasparino he's been talking to the financial community about the heads of investment firms and what they might be making and what's

unfolding, they have a lot of doubts of what's been unfolding, will take a quick break and how this works out for at least an investment community that right now is selling first and maybe hoping for the best later. we'll have more after this. and to be prepared if anything changes. with ibm, you can do both. your business can bring data together across your clouds, from suppliers to shippers, to the factory floor. so whatever comes your way, the wheels keep moving. seamlessly modernizing your operations, that's why so many businesses work with ibm.

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neil: real quickly and get update you on why they're down is down to 460 points, the confusion of the unknown and the rating that they were gettable on the infrastructure only package that is in some doubt right now when joe manchin came along and said the human infrastructure for three and half trillion at a minimum plan that it has to go down to one and half trillion before he can even consider it progressives rhymes with the word missed, they did not like what they were hearing but they were open to

talks but they're still saying that is the progressive caucus it will not be a player in voting on the infrastructure only measure until they deal with the other stuff. there you have it, right now confusion on that, funding the government, all of that is adding up to a lot of wrinkles and a lot of selling. charlie gasparino on what is hearing and where this might be going. >> let's talk about the debt ceiling people on wall street can get their hands around the fact that the debt ceiling can easily be passed by the democrats on a straight party line vote, no republican has to support it, they can pass that, they can do that through reconciliation, it's purely a budget matter and they can do it they just want republican buy-in on passing the debt ceiling so they can hang some of the spending of the republicans, just remember it is easy easy way to solve the debt ceiling and that's clear democrat party line vote which they don't want

to do for political reasons. be that as it may what is interesting for my sources where wall street firms who have lobbyist and closely following this we all enjoyed a jump into the west virginia senator in the most powerful man in government, this is the siding vote over the deadly. they're telling me is not joe manchin it's kyrsten sinema, the arizona senator she is the most important woman in governor mitt right now that they believe joe manchin what this comes down to is to try again dollars, you are probably voting for the human infrastructure bill but she apparently won't. the word coming from her, she is playing the john mccain role in

many ways, she's adopting many of mccain's stances, i think the mccain family endorsed her, i could be wrong i will have to check that but she's playing the john mccain roll the late great senator from arizona, she was a republican, she's a democrat. from what i understand she has almost no interest in the human infrastructure she wants to do the regular infrastructure, the physical one the 1.5 but she's not on board with the other stuff, the taxes, the spending, she's literally channeling john mccain, will see, does that change does someone get to her does the president lobby her, she is a democrat that's what i'm hearing, what does that mean in actuality it means you probably get about, is at least this is the wall street guys about on human infrastructure nancy pelosi will bring it to the four the senate votes and then that probably gets passed because about republican buy-in and in the $3.5 trillion is anyone's guess, get slimmed-down and maybe at some point you get

cinema to buy-in but it won't be easy and it may never come, this is -- people thought about the republican party been at war between trump republicans in these types of republicans, democrat party has wild divisions right now between progressives and model it under moderate and some of the moderates no they're about to get the rear ends handed to them in terms so they worry about their votes and if you represent west virginia, joe manchin is playing by fire going with a $1.5 trillion package if you represent arizona which is trans-republican and maybe more republican now after the disastrous start for the biden administration, you are worried about your vote, keep an eye on her, the most powerful person in washington is not joe manchin, it is kyrsten sinema, back to you.

neil: let's see what she says about a figure, you are right the mccain family did indeed support kyrsten sinema, she reminded her of her husband and said that of her father, they did support her in her mccain ways the way that they described it at the time, she is living through to that, thank you very much, you might be noticing on the lower right why are they showing the senate floor, this is where the taking of the temporary funding measure that would be good to keep the government going technically through december 3 there is a separate issue that comes up after this presumably passes and goes to the house which is expected to pass and it skirts over to the president of the united states he signed off on it, then the bigger more onerous issue the debt ceiling that is

what investors are worried about and if they can't come to an agreement on that, time is a wasting october 18 is the date you hear a lot about, that is the point that you have to put up or shut up and suspended, whatever you want to do but anything past that were digging under couch cushions, i believe that's a bit extreme and overdone to scare folks into voting for this but if you get real close to that october 18 then you still don't have something together that is not going to be good i will leave it at that, that will not be good. stay with us. ♪

neil: as expected the u.s. senate has approved a stopgap funding to keep the government running through early december, about december 3 or so this moves onto the house and the likely approve it at least that is a hope they hold out hope for

infrastructure only vote today, some might happen but is far from a gimmick. assuming it's approved in the house the race is heading over to the president's desk and he assigned it tonight and we have a little bit of breathing room for a couple of months and then the debt ceiling and all of that in the interim in the confusion over that why were down for - 41 points, hillary vaughn on where all of this back-and-forth is going, what can you tell us? >> there really isn't any agreement to help the debt ceiling or raise the debt ceiling even though treasury secretary janet yellen has been on the hill she has been trying and pleading with republicans and democrats to work together to raise the debt ceiling so we don't head into a recession that's what she worried about earlier today, speaker pelosi

had similar warnings in her press conference but republicans in the house and senate are standing their grounds they're not going to work with democrats to raise the debt limit because they see that as an endorsement they're calling one runaway government spending that's going to pave the way for a lot of social spending included the 3.5 and may not be the 3.5 reconciliation package, while this vote signals this is going to avoid a government shutdown it does not avoid the government running out of money. neil: even on the debt ceiling would it be likely only democrats voting on it or is there a possibility it's a separate vote that republicans would be open to that, where are we on this. >> that is something that nancy pelosi and chuck schumer want to avoid they don't want to be forced into a democrat only

reconciliation push to raise the debt ceiling, they don't like the optics of that either. the bottom line they may be trying to call republicans bluff but if republicans and mcconnell has said raising the debt limit, they don't budge, they stand their ground to not help democrats in this effort and essentially they will be left holding the bag and they want to do the reconciliation with democrats only voting to raise the debt ceiling or they're going to essentially let the government run out of money or into a recession which is what secretary yellen has essentially forecasted if they do not act at all. neil: thank you very much for all of that, hillary vaughn hillary touched on it there's a lot of pieces that have to come into play, what you're seeing noel in the senate is passing a temporary funding measure that did have bipartisan support, now

that the bigger issue in the house assuming again, that's a big assumption to assume that it will pass their go to the president he will sign off the far far bigger issue will be the debt ceiling that is the one if you get too close, sort of like a fire it hurts, sometimes if you dodge around that does not buy you much financial respect either. keep in mind 2011 we avoided the government shutdown or non-suspended debt not because we fell into this but because were acting like clowns, that was then and they just don't want that to happen now. stay with us you're watching fox business. ♪

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♪ ♪ i am so happy the reuniting i would love to tell them can't you and the guys did the same but enough about me and my favorite songs, this was happening in washington a nancy pelosi essentially saying to progressives, take a chance on me on this because we will be able to deal with the reconciliation, the human infrastructure stuff even though they didn't call it human infrastructure, you're gonna have to trust her on this. a good many of them we heard from the progressive caucus do not want to take a chance so they're not keen on voting for the infrastructure only package. iowa that into the whole wall street development. enough of that. let's take it to the market you

can see the dow is sliding but i want to bring your attention to the nasdaq right now, that is having a devil of a time getting out of its own way. it's doing a little better but if you look at microsoft, google, nvidia, facebook, and netflix, this week alone they have lost close to 400 billion in market, this week alone. we will see how this bears out a lot of people buy on the dip, we have not seen that in some of these issues. but in the quarter it's been a tough one for mere names like apple up a little bit about 4% but the quarter of the month this is then business as usual with attacks leading the charge in higher interest rates and all the rest. the asset group cio, what is it about tech when rates go up,

disproportionately punished. >> i would necessarily say it's not disproportionately punished but it doesn't benefit as other sectors of the market like financials and the like that just benefits from rising rates it's a rotation that starts to occur and subsequently that's why you're seeing the text selloff but i would argue tech names were due to selloff because going into september the majority of the names in the s&p, 56% to be completely direct on that number had been named in the s&p 500 had seen a 10% correction going back to may 1 and in small-cap industries it was almost 90% of the names and are roughly 2000 have seen a 10% correction this is a long time coming and i'm not so necessarily the selloff that we see and tack is directly related to the rates although it probably is incidental impact

here. neil: i apologize for the time, were down 379 points, the nasdaq is positive right now but as we are addressing this and talking about abba we have another song sos that might apply where are the funny happy days that seem so hard-to-find, i tried to reach for you but you closed your mind, whatever happened to our love, i wish i understood. nancy pelosi is singing that song right now. we will have more after this.

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neil: we might not get a infrastructure vote today, infrastructure only package but looks like we can avert a government shutdown, that measure passing the senate, moving to the house ultimately where the president's desk will sign it. that is something done. it doesn't delay the other big headaches but it provides at least some relief we'll see. now charles payne. charles: neil, thank you very much. good afternoon, everyone, this is "making money." don't look now as speaker pelosi all of sudden the pelosi magic as progressives mean business and so does senator joe manchin. we're looking at stock market that became vulnerable during the month of sent. what happens if the calendar changes and we get a compromise

bill? i wile