gerry: thank you very much for joining us, that is it for us this week i'll be back with more interviews on the washing general at large, thank you for joining us. ♪ >> "barron's roundtable" sponsored by invesco qqq. ♪. jack: welcome to "barron's roundtable" where we get behind the headlines prepare you for the week ahead. i am jack otter, former fda commissioner joined us on covid-19 vaccination for young children and the continued importance of masks, later despite serious supply chain issues there will be plenty of

presents under the tree we explained that we begin as always to the most important things investors ought to be thinking about right now, stocks the as politicians wrangled in washington but investors were focused on earnings netflix shares had an all-time high even as technology stocks suffered an electric vehicle stocks outperformed the mid market turbulence from positive news reporting tesla. on the "barron's roundtable" ben levisohn, carleton english in dachau. a crazy week in washington we saw a dangerous game of debt ceiling chicken and democrat trying to snatch infrastructure defeat, using investors were looking at something completely different. >> that is right even friday rally stocks had a terrible week politics did not have much to do with the earnings have been driving this market higher, estimates are coming down in companies cut their guidance because of supply chain issues and inflation sherman williams, bed bath & beyond and allegiant were a few that did this past week the lower estimates could mean companies have an easier

time with their forecast when it comes time to report, so many stocks have been beaten up, means a bar may be lower. >> that's not how it works analyst lewitt until they can clear it. that's a good the bond market, yields creeping up has to worry investors a bit. >> without a doubt the tenure broke 1.5% that caused the growth stock and nasdaq to selloff. the fed is ready to taper bond buying and higher bond yield seemed like the proper reaction to that but as long as they don't rise too quickly the stock market should be okay. jack: we have to do a gut check, all my gosh ponder over, the tenure is over 1.5% is crazy, what are you watching this coming week. >> is really not much working at pepsi earnings earlier in the week and payrolls on friday but there's a lot of dead air in between the vacuum could spell trouble. jack: they will have the payroll report, let's talk about netflix

it seems to me if you did not subscribe during a global pandemic you will never sign up and that should hurt growth, the stock has been on a tear while other stocks are stumbling, what is going on. >> neck clicks was the one stock you wanted to be in in september about 7% a lot of announcements that they had recently, i don't know if you're familiar with the movie that came out, korean language survival story, huge views on that right now also netflix revealed word box a few years ago that 300 million used in the first 28 days, if that were a box office, that would've been about 1.3 billion and revenue, a few phones that came out were able to meet that mark a lot of people are watching and you have to think about what is going on with the movie and television business, streaming is much more common over the last year viewers have certainly

gotten used to streaming versus going to the theater and i think we'll see the hybrid so some of those people who may not have signed on to netflix may be forced to soon. jack: any other tricks up their sleeves? >> i don't know if you remember a few years ago netflix said not only are they competing with cable boxes and other streamers but one of their biggest competitors was fortnite video games. they just announced in the position of the company night school studio, that is going to help and as long as netflix can find ways to stay relevant with the television shows in the movies and video games anything that is on the screens that attract viewer eyeballs i think that puts them into position. jack: i talked to bill and he thinks one of the levers they gonna pull is a cracked and a password sharing a lot of people do it, they know you're doing it and they could cut that off at

any time. let's switch over to another world, the auto world, new auto and old auto had very good news. >> i don't know what's more impressive omega campus or a giga factory like tesla $11.4 billion to build a mega- campus in tennessee, two factories in kentucky, that is the biggest investment in the 118 year history and in tennessee is going to build out new electric f150 pickup trucks and the battery in kentucky batteries for ford and lincoln, this is all about electric vehicles ford says 40 to 50% of the global volume with electric vehicles by 2030, the stock is up 60% versus 10%, ford is nine times earning utica grow earnings by double digit percentages, no one cares at all about electric vehicle headlines at this point, i'll just add anyone who thinks electric

vehicle uptake isn't something to see in the u.s. versus what's happened in europe keep in mind americans by pickup trucks and suvs we haven't seen a lot of electric ones yet ford is coming out with the f150 electric pickup truck in the spring, i don't care if it's in a mega- campus or a jumbo jamboree i think they gonna sell a lot of vehicles. >> i think it's neat the renewable vehicles are going to call countries in kentucky because they need the jobs there. coming up our next guest will explain how the cia can prevent the next pandemic, d d ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

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♪yea, you can be the greatest♪ ♪you can be the best♪ ♪you can be the king kong♪ ♪bangin on your chest♪ ♪you can beat the world you can beat the war♪ ♪you can talk to god while bangin on his door♪ ♪you can throw your hands up you can beat the clock♪ ♪you can move a mountain you can break rocks♪ ♪you can be a master don't wait for luck♪ ♪dedicate yourself and you can find yourself♪ ♪standin in the hall of fame♪ ♪yea♪ ♪and the world's gonna know your name, yea♪ jack: the surge of coronavirus seems to be leveling off in some areas of the country as the worst of the delta weight behind

us joining as fda commissioner and the new york times bestseller uncontrolled spread why covid-19 crushed us and how we can defeat the next pandemic doctor scott godley, thank you for joining us. there is obviously communications missteps throughout the pandemic, what needs to happen to make sure the people of this country gets accurate consistent information. >> the advice from the cdc on whether we should stand 6 feet apart or 3 feet apart that was not being well-informed by information in analytical work by the cdc, the cdc put out guidance to maintain 6 feet of distance between themselves that was a costly of guidance through the whole pandemic, enforcement and schools to remain shut and forced many businesses to remain shut because they could not allow for 6 feet of distance between the customers or students that was not based on sound science it was based on old science looking a droplet transmission and influenza we know the coronavirus bread primarily through aerosol and respiratory particles, the

guidance wasn't revised louis finally revises spring with the biden administration put pressure on cdc to revisit the guidance they recognize the six-foot requirement was forcing schools to remain shut cdc settled on a conclusion as long as children are wearing masks they can maintain 3 feet of distance and that would be appropriate they based on a study last fall where they looked at mass individuals and found that two people wearing masks and 3 feet apart you can reduce transmission by 70% which begs the question if they had the result, the study result in the fall why did it take them until the spring to update the guidance. jack: that the interesting guidance on the efficacy of masks, not heard that before, you mentioned schools, many parents are eager to get the booster shot were taken october or november but can i ask you about the school situation they

want to feel reassured it is safe should they thank any differently from the measles, mumps, rubella and any other shots kids have to take before getting in schools. >> the vaccines from 5 - 11 be developed by pfizer and hopefully available soon subject to a review by the food and drug administration it is basically the same vaccine being used in adults but at smaller doses, it's a 30-microgram dose one being used in children ages 5 - 11 is been proposed to be used in the 10-microgram it's basically one third of the dose being used in adults, we have a lot of safety data with the vaccine and a lot of individual data of the vaccine being used in children at the younger age, that's informing decisions and against people a lot of confidence there's a lot of information available on which the decision is about the vaccines. >> i hear people say unvaccinated people can't hurt anyone else do you agree with that and what do you say as a leading authority on medicine and science hesitancy. >> and unvaccinated individual

can transmit the infection to other vaccinated individuals as well as vaccinated individuals. even in those who have been vaccinated. remaining unvaccinated you're putting yourself at risk and putting other people at risk, you created the risk that your gonna be a chain and a source of transmission within the community. jack: towards the end of your book you make the case we should harness the national security apparatus to help us fight the next pandemic, how can the cia be helpful in this. >> historically we have relied on multi-battle engagement between different nations to alert us when a virus arrives in a foreign country and we seen time and time again that countries have a been forthcoming about the outbreaks that was the case in sars covid to it was certainly the case in sars one were trying to withheld key information about virus as well seen and other nations were gonna have to get our tools of national security more engaged in the overseas mission

moderating hotspots trying to identify when these affections to emerge that means the cia and nsa the public of community has wanted anywhere near this mission they fear if the cia or others got involved in this admission, anyone with a white coat would be perceived to be a spy, we live in a world we no longer can be complacent about this. jack: very important stuff can you give us two more bullets on things we ought to do to tamp this down in the future. >> i think first of all we need to build better capacities in this country to try to scale up the production the things that we need to protect ourselves from a public health crisis of this magnitude that means having the ability to mass-produce and deploy a diagnostic test of scalloped testing that was the missing link earlier in this pandemic in the ability to domestically produce the biological drugs were gonna need as a first line of defense of a strain of a virus, we don't have

a residual capacity to manufacture in this country when this virus first emerge, the coronavirus first emerged we scramble to find domestic capacity of the drugs and we never had enough and we still have enough were unity better systems for gathering data and informing policymakers in a real-time fashion about how these pathogens are spreading across united states we relied on the cdc to collect data they have very data that they look at in the analytical work to try to inform not just policymakers but consumers on what they should do to protect themselves and what we found it agency lacks good information they did not have good information coming into the agency and the analytical work that they did took a lot of time if it's going to be the cdc that we rely on were gonna have to change the culture of the organization and the way that they do business. >> and optimistic note people are eager together on thanksgiving. it seems to be slowing a bit,

what shape are we going to be a by the end of november? >> barring anything unexpected happen with the new variant with the immunity with vaccination or prior infection the case level in the south is coming down very sharply were seen epidemic surges in other parts of the country like the midwest and the pacific northwest the northeast so far has not seen a big delta wave bye-bye thanksgiving the delta wave probably will have run its course across old country on the back end of that prevalence levels should start to decline. jack: that is great news, good place to end it, thank you so much for being on the show. much for being on the show. jack: could global supply chain i'll shoot you an estimate

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waiting right now outside of california ports are we facing holiday headaches experience cover story by our very own jack hough a great story, no surprise there but i want to get, let's get this out of the way first, santa claus will come as christmas as scheduled. >> i think so we have all seen ship that are anchored off the board of l.a., there is a lot of causes we can point to for the gym at the center is the virus, the shift is our behavior and we stop buying experiences and goods, a lot of the things americans by and a 30% increase in the trans specific and just in the past several weeks covid

rates worldwide and in the u.s. declined a bit were already hearing about factories reopening to keep cases under places like vietnam, the l.a. port of names, he points out if the ships look worrisome, sophisticated retailers saw this coming and what they have done a sharply accelerated their orders for christmas they had goods coming in two months earlier this year than they typically had, he says there will be goods on the shelves for christmas i heard that from him in a shipping executive the chiefs for america's two biggest toy companies have been out there and they will begin son shelves for christmas. >> is a perfect storm i was interested in all but one problem that you identified in your story, wink and those finally go away, windy things get back to normal. >> the second half of next year you will not see those go away before the end of this year, in the beginning of next year

companies will be focused on restocking inventory which is dwindling down the second half of next year something they will take care of themselves as virus rates decline we will do more things, one more thing will be flying half of airfreight is carried on passenger planes when we are flying there is more opportunities than airfreight and burden put on ships, that is one example of many things in semi conductors, that the real key bottleneck, the lower end in appliances and things like that, those cavities have increased their capital investment on equipment by more than 50% this year, new capacity is coming that takes a little more time to ramp up that is good to be closer to the end of next year. >> you talk about the advantages of big companies have entered new circumstances, why is it let

me charter three more giant ships, you have the deep pockets, and the unsophisticated data and things like that, those big sellers, walmart, costco target their still in good shape i spoke with one retailer in chicago, she owns cato toys and she discovered a hot seller it's the scooter a push scooter for e over the summer called luca little kid turns into a boy and the only thing he wants is the scooter every 4-year-old in america wants to own and the best one that looks like it that isn't going to get them hurt is called a primo she hears the factory is shut down, that's in vietnam a big rise in coping with the delta variant they shut down factories in july the owner of the factory tells me this coming week, he doesn't think he could get more to america in

time for christmas so we had to decide to leave it to the beginning of next year. >> can i jump in really quick were almost out of time. >> give me some advice on holiday shopping, what do we need to do differently this year. >> shop really don't wait for discounters two or three restocking between mid-october mid-december there might only be one, if you're looking for a ps five pay a thousand dollars on ebay that's double the price that's what one analyst told me slip 20 bucks, this is not the institution, he said gamestop is going to have an allotment of ps five in the gamestop clerk might be easier than a target clerk and i take no position on the legality or the lack thereof and barron's has no institutional view. >> you always have good advice, thank you for that, great story everyone should read it liberty mutual customizes car insurance so you only pay for what you need.

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jack: we established there will be a christmas, what are the hot toys. >> every year it takes manufactures by surprise, a cabbage patch kid, this year more difficult to tell because they have been canceled and not a lot of movie releases and theaters, paw patrol toys will do well, viacom film a company called spin master, but the clearest hit of the year i'm holding that you're one of the most dumbest toys i've ever seen this is a waffle fidget some people call it a poppet or bubbles you go like this and you push these bubbles and like that, if you're thinking is that all, no you turn it over and you push them over again, santa if

you are watching, i know it's a pandemic in a people are off their game but i feel like we could do better than this. i have an idea for a wall full fidget waffle i have some in the freezer you can put syrup on and eat it. >> today my daughter's eighth birthday i got her a scooter but maybe i should've got her a waffle popper. >> it would've been cheaper. >> let's go to action items, you have to forest. >> don't buy a waffle fidget use bubblewrap instead we all have it lying around the house. but take a look at itt stock, citing cost reduction and profit margin the stock gained 1% last week despite the markets big drop, it looks pretty interesting. jack: i like the money-saving idea, what you have for us. >> and looking at liquid alternatives and portfolio, were about to enter more volatility

and investors want to look at alternatives for the portfolio what i mentioned is j.p. morgan hedge equity in the two sister funds. jack: that is part of a great special supplement running and barron's on alternative investment ideas, thinking for years cover story, to read more checkout the supplement and the rest of the magazine and rest of the magazine and barron's.com don't f (oil gurgling) (light mellow music) - [narrator] oil, the lifeblood of modern society. like it or not, this black stuff from under the earth fuels our everyday lives in ways we can scarcely imagine, and without it the world as we know it well, wouldn't be. - there's nothing anywhere that doesn't have a part of oil in it. - [narrator] but getting this precious commodity out of the ground and into our hands can be tricky to say the least. - [john] set it mark. - [narrator] it takes patience - [mark] she's stuck. - [narrator] long hours. - [kyle] can't be friday soon enough, i don't think. - [narrator] ingenuity. - [alex] good job boys. - [narrator] and a whole lot of hard work. - that's it, we got it.