tv Cavuto Coast to Coast FOX Business October 29, 2021 12:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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stuart: would the stock be now $2,000 a share if it was back backrub? >> stranger things have happened. stuart: what'll happen with facebook when it becomes meta? that's what they want. you know what? my time is absolutely up for the week, but i'll be back next week, and is so will all of us. neil, it's yours. neil: googling is weird. they had a meeting, right? and when it was all said and done, we've got to come up with a better name, they came up with alphabet. [laughter] they probably paid tens of millions of dollars for that gathering. it's just nuts. stuart: yeah. neil: all right. thank you very much, my friend. let's take a look at what's happening with 200 tech names being scrutinized as the dow goes in and out of record territory. the nasdaq would be doing a lot better if not for the performance particularly of amazon, that stock down better
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than 3%. we have apple sliding about that amount here. again, you know, the amazon thing you can understand. it really was an awful earnings and revenue report, certainly a lot worse than wall street thought. apple was off the charts just what it was saying about its supply chain and worrisome guidance for the fourth quarter that had the stock being punished after hours, early trading and now in current trading. if not for that apple slide, the dow would be in a whole different world of hurt right here, but right now because microsoft is now the big, new king of events, so to speak, with a market cap that is now effectively over that of apple, it is helping the dow right now, keeping it in and out of record territory here. a couple of things we're following before we get to the issues at hand, inflation is being raises again as a concern a number of numbers coming out not only in our country, but the eurozone that have inflation at
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better than record highs, including one measure out of the federal reserve it's the now at a 30-year high. we're going to be getting into that in just a second, the backdrop could send those inflationary numbers still higher, chad pergram about where we stand right now. hey, chad. >> reporter: good afternoon, neil. there's a divide between moderates and liberals inside the democratic party. the left thinks the moderates got everything they wanted by reducing the cost of the spending bill. moderates accuse progressives of being reasonable. liberal -- unreasonable. liberals aren't ready to vote for anything until they get concrete assurances about the bill. >> a little bit more than an iou. >> we feel bamboozled because this is not what i thought was coming today. >> reporter: house speaker nancy pelosi can usually muscle through a big vote, but shellackedded the votes to pass the infrastructure -- she lacked the votes to pass the infrastructure bill. what's your response when you hear that sort of dissension in
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your caucus when you present a very positive -- >> i have respect for all of our members under the full spectrum of the big tent that is our democratic party. everybody has the chance to say what they wish. >> reporter: the gop points out that the bill is still a staggering $1.75 trillion, it's filled with an expansion of obamacare and tax increases. >> -- think that that bill wasn't enough spending for them shows just how far left they are. >> reporter: at best, they would take about two weeks to pass, then you're staring at thanksgiving. if not then, the next backstop is december 3rd, that's when government funding expires, and they must also lift the debt ceiling. neil? neil: is all that doable in the timeline you kind of outlined? >> reporter: absolutely. i mean, if they're able to get a deal, you could really see them if they step on the gas at the end of next week maybe move it through the house and then through the senate or vice
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versa. that's reasonable. it's probably two to two and a half weeks, but then you get thanksgiving. this is where we keep looking at big crisis come december 3rd, you know, the debt ceiling, government funding, maybe they put everything together in some gargantuan bill at that stage or then you're looking at the end of the year. the other problem that they have is nancy pelosi does not like to let bills sit out there that long. things can happen. maybe you have people who get sick, this is a little bit morbid, sometimes you have people who go away, resign. you could have the vote matrix change very easily in the house and senate. 50-50 senate, 3-vote is majority in the house of representatives for the democrats, you're really kind of playing with fire. neil: now one last quick question, chad. the idea of maybe combining the two measures and voting on them that way, that seems to be out the door. what are the odds? >> >> reporter: well, if you do that, you certainly lose the support of the republicans.
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they say this is not what we supported. you know, you would get it through the house and senate because you have the votes, but there are some democrats who say we want this to be a distinct bill. you might even have a couple of democrats in the house, moderate democrats, who would vote no on the bigger package. so, again, you know, you have to see where the votes would fall. that would be the determinative factor. neil: thank you, my friend, very much. chad pergram following that closely. to senator roger marshall right now, kansas republican senator. good to have you, senator. it's interesting, the timeline they're looking at and that if everything goes their way, they might be able to pull this off. is it fair to say as chad was touching on a remote possibility that these two huge packages are combined that every bit of republican support support, certainly for the infrastructure-only package, would be lost? >> neil, we've got 'em on the run. first of all, welcome back. i want you to know we missed you every afternoon between 4-6
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p.m., we try to get a workout in the gym. we have you on one of our tv thes and larry kudlow on the other, and and we missed you. but, look, we do have them on the run. i said months ago on this show that the democrats will be jammed by that small bipartisan infrastructure bill, and that's exactly what's happening. i think kyrsten sinema ask joe manchin are working circles around speaker pelosi. it's like she's lost her fast ball. they're showing her how the hog eats the cabbage. they jammed her on this one. but what your listeners need to know is they are representing the states that they come from, that a arizona and west virginia did not send them to washington, d.c. to turn this economy into a big government socialism. most americans still believe in this economic freedom and prosper if -- prosperity. neil: they're still likely to support the final measure which might be in the $1.75 trillion
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range. that's not exactly chicken feed. [laughter] >> no, this is still big government socialism taking over our economy. no one's really talked about the tax policy or what these tax policies look like going forward. and still no matter what bottom line numbers they give you, bet you a coke we end up spending $7-10 trillion over ten years. neil: we can do better than a coke, senator -- [laughter] but let me ask you if they get this through, a lot of tax increases are going to go through raising the top rate. albeit at a very, very high level to about 45%. you throw in medicare surcharges and all that, you're really talking about a 50% top rate at only the federal level and not even include state taxes -- including state taxes and other taxes, in some states over 60%. what do you think of that? >> big government socialism, right? raising our taxes so they can redistribute income. and, again, they can talk about an alternative the minimum tax
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for c corpses or raising that -- corpse or raising that number -- corps or raising that number. taxing dividends as ordinary income, at the end of the day, grab your wallet, they're coming after it, right? neil: senator, thank you very much. thank you for the kind words as well. senator roger marshall, beautiful state of kansas. let's go to another beautiful guy, gary kaltbaum, who follows these market swings back and forth. i guess, gary, and i'm just reading -- and chad pergram's very good at understanding those vibes -- the democrats will be able to pull this off, albeit by the skin of their teeth. now, that might not pan out, but if it does and they do get this done, then do the markets expect that to happen, or will they be surprised that it happened? >> i think the markets have it already baked in the cake. i can tell you that
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infrastructure plays have been getting going like united rentals or martin marietta materials, so i think it's in there. and the fact -- actually, who knows what accounting they're using and how much it's going to be, but it's going to be over time, and where it stops beats the heck out of me, but i think markets are doing their own thing right now based on one very important number, and that is the drop in the virus. and here this florida the drop in hospitalizations has basically crashed. and when you see now, you can turn on the tube and watch 70-80,000 watching a football game. when i go to the airport last week and and it was packed to the gills, it tells you that the economy is better, and ask i think the market's working off of that. and a fed with the ecb that's still printing $250 billion a month at this juncture, so i think markets are still this gear here. neil: the markets seem to be ignoring, at least for the time being, some of these
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inflationary spikes we're seeing not only in this country where they're in and out of multi-decade highs, but even in europe where the eurozone thousand, highest in 13 years. why are they reacting that way? almost shrugging their shoulders? >> this may sound very simplistic, you're just in a bullish environment right now. if if we were in a bearish environment, markets would get hit and hit big because inflation is not a good thing the especially if it persists. but we're in a moment of time right now where buyers have the upper hand, we're coming out of the virus, the money's still out there, negative rates around the globe in many areas, and i've got to tell you the reaction to some of these earnings reports not withstanding apple and amazon which, by the way, i don't think will stay down for long, have been pretty darn good year-over-year and can markets react to that. there's still a ton of cash on the sidelines, so for now i think it's the end of the year. we are going higher in spite of
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a lot of things we're seeing, in spite of higher taxes and the rules ask is regulations and the fees and fines and mandates or whatever the heck's going to be in this bill, and we'll just go with it until the market says otherwise. neil: you know, you mentioned amazon and apple. i can kind of understand, gary, the pile-on at amazon that was so below even what the most dismal estimates were, the apple pile-on was severe because numbers were strong. it was just, i guess, that warning about the supply chain, whatever tim cook said, $6 billion hit that could craft potential problems for the holiday season and maybe the entire fourth quarter. the fact that they were both sort of hit by the same brush, i just wonder how you think this plays out. i got the impression that it's a short reaction regardless. >> oh, i think so because eventually, we think, the supply chain issue will be ironedded
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out. and with apple it was not anything to do with demand, it had to do with the ability to fulfill orders. and, yeah, the holiday season is the most important art of the equation. but the markets look past it after everything gets going, and there's going to be a big pipeline of people going in there. as far as amazon, i actually think some of the same things. the reason why amazon hasn't done much in 15-18 month, there's been a discount this anything that's benefited the most during the pandemic. you've seen peloton crushed, zoom crushed. they had their big, gigantic driver during the pandemic. as we come out of it, they lose that driver, and i think that's part of the amazon problem this second. if they keep doing what they're doing longer term, i think it'll be just fine. they've done everything very well, and they're making a ton at this juncture. neil: right now most of the corporate earnings we've have been on the upside, even higher
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than the estimates. i know that it's kind of like a pattern, but it is especially lopsided at this stage in the third quarter earnings report. again, amazon and apple notwithstanding. and i think a lot of that has to deal with the guidance issue with the exception of maybe an apple, kind of an amazon here. most companies have said we're weathering these blows just nicely. there's the higher prices and all that. how do you interpret just the guidance these companies are giving? >> you know, as i walk through them, it's pretty darn good. if i'm not hearing much in the way of supply chain issues for a lot of companies. i'm seeing companies that have raised prices like chi peat lay -- chipotle and others. as you say the words weather the storm, sales growth is pretty darn good. and again, if we can get past this -- inflation persists and worsens, i can promise you there are going to be markdowns in everything. if this is something that just
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stays right here or just comes down a wee bit, i think we'll be okay. my big worry is going to be later into next year. i still think there's heck to pay, neil, this $29 trillion of debt, massive amounts of money being wasted on interest, and i can go through the next couple of hours of issues that the politics are putting upon the future of this country. with their profligate spending. by the way, in both parties, to be fair. but that's down the road. right now guidance is just a-okay. neil: all right. thank you, my friend, very much. gary kaltbaum following all of these developments here. to gary's part, it's an unnerving development, this inflationary thing, the markets have a funny way of showing it. the dow and the s&p 500 are both now in and out of records, in fact, they're both at those levels. the nasdaq would be if not for the falloff in amazon and this notion that apple is feeling the pinch and all of that. but you had the employment cost
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index running at its fastest rate in 19 years, the core index that right now is running at a 30-year high. both followed closely by the federal reserve. you've got also this idea that u.s. consumer sentiment is down in the latest month from a month earlier. so you could seize on that and say, all right, now the pinch is being felt. but i'm telling you, wall street continues to see the half-full glass here, and it's interesting when you see all this negative stuff particularly on inflation thrown at them, the better part of valor seems to be at worst pull back, but more often keep buying. and on it rolls. so shall we after this. ♪ ♪ it's the final countdown, the final countdown ♪♪
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for an exclusive live stream with jamie lee curtis. a q&a with me! join for free on the xfinity app. our thanks your rewards. ♪ neil: all right. that race in virginia is certainly intriguing if you look at it. a fox poll shows it's a runaway for the republican challenger and sort of an average of olds
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showing it's tight as a tick but still favoring the challenger. alexandria hoff now with much more in charlottesville. >> reporter: hi, neil. yeah, the sun just came out here, and i imagine that the youngkin team feels like the same thing has happened for their campaign. the latest fox news poll of likely voters shows youngkin ahead by 8 points. the republican candidate warned that polls don't elect governors, voters do. >> polls don't elect governors, voters do. voters do. [applause] so now it's time for all of us to go to work. >> reporter: all right. can on the issue of education, youngkin is polling 8% of mcauliffe. two weeks ago mcauliffe was ahead there. on the economy mcauliffe has tout his experience, he served as governor from 2014-2018, but
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likely voters to do a better job on the economy, another tie broken there. mcauliffe lost a percent and on you kink gains ten -- youngkin gained ten. kamala harris will rally for the second time on behalf of the governor who also welcomed president biden on tuesday just outside of washington. when asked how the stalemate in washington might be impacting his campaign, mcauliffe told fox news this: >> nobody, nobody has asked me about what's happening in washington. they don't blame us for it, you know? they're really looking at local issues. >> reporter: now, youngkin just wrapped up his second vent here in charlottesville today, that is the second of five he has total. neil? neil: all right. alexandria, appreciate that, fox news correspondent, of course, following these late developments this virginia. there is another race going on as well, this one not quite as close, what's going on in new jersey for the gubernatorial contest there. but phil murphy is still
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fighting. odd as this might be to believe in the bluest of blue states, democratic governors have a devil of a time getting reelected. last one who did that was brendan byrnes back in 1977. most of the governors who have been reelected have been republican like chris christie. christine todd whitman, many, many others, but it is a unique phenomenon for this statement that sort of gets its reputation for being all blue, all the time. axios reporter on those views, we're always looking at virginia because that does look tight. again, depending on the poll, maybe not. new jersey, depending on the poll, it's either close, within 5-6 points, maybe as wide as 10-11 points, but certainly for phil murphy not the 26 points it was back in the summer. what do you think is going on? >> something shifted. we don't know how much things have shifted, but cleary the fact that these two -- clearly the fact that these two states are moving in tandem, virginia and new jersey -- one where
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there's been a great deal of national attention. you and i talked about this two or three months ago on the importance of virginia, but everyone's now bringing new jersey into focus, and i suspect the trends are the same, and that is there's some concern about what's happening with inflation, there's concern about schools, there's also some covid fatigue. so not all this is necessarily against democratic policies, but just sort of a changed mentality. and when you talk to democrats around d.c., what they're looking at, neil, is they're looking at the margins. so mcauliffe could win, murphy could win, right, no one knows at this point, but if mcauliffe wins by one point, it still tells us that something's going on in the country. this is a statement that joe biden won by ten. if murphy wins by five, six points, it will tell us that something's happening in the country. yes, we can all kind of look at polls. you know my rule on polls this close to an election, and that is don't look at them. they're like the sun, you won't get any out of it. but the margin will matter.
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regardless of who wins, the margin will tell us about what's happening in the country. neil: you know, independents may be more crucial voters in a state like virginia, fewer of them, i would imagine, in my state of new jersey. but even there the trend has been roughly the same where it lob sidedly favored the democratic -- lopsidedly favored the democratic candidate a few months ago. now more evenly favoring the republican candidate. what do you make of that? >> well, we don't know to what extent the delta's going to be, and apologies if to you hear commotion in the background. we do have a dog in the house, and the dog doesn't always cooperate. i apologize to your viewers ahead of time. the independents, i think, are going to be more -- what we're going to learn from independents and what that means going forward for the midterm elections, and that is if the suburban midterm voters flee and leave the democratic party, that has implications for 2022.
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and so, you know, again, don't read too much into this idea that it's a bellwether state and that what happens in virginia is a mirage, but it does have some importance, and we're going to run it down to the granular level of what's actually happening with a certain subset of voters. neil: i do understand dog speak, and i think your dog was saying do not rule out this shift in independent voters. but you can check me on that. [laughter] let's ten back and wonder -- step back and wonder whether the back and forth on this spending package in washington is having any impact at all in either of these states. what do you think? >> well, you have to take politicians at their word from what they said before the package went south, and that is terry mcauliffe and his home state senator, mark warner, have been warning for two or three weeks if you don't get the infrastructure package across the line, it's going to have implications and that voters want to see that package get across the line. now, you just did hear there
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your correspondent who had some sound saying no voters or are asking about this. that's what he's saying two or three days out and after the bill hasn't gotten finished. two to three weeks ago he was warning we need to get this infrastructure package passed, voters want to see some sort of progress and positive momentum and positive movement out of washington d.c. and this is going to help my re-election. they're singing a slightly different tune now that it looks like this bill, at least before the election clearly, is not going to get passed, the infrastructure portion. so, you know, whether or not it's going to be dispositive and whether or not it actually is really going to make a huge difference, again, it's impossible to say. and, again, all the metrics you look at this stage in the campaign, just remember, very little people actually know what's happening. no one knows how voters are going to pull the lever when they're in that voting booth. you can look at yard signs, white house officials are worried about all the youngkin yard signs they see.
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neal neal right, right. >> -- neil: right, right. >> there's no accurate way to predict these elections, and if there's anything that '16 and 2020 taught us, don't think the polls are going to be predictive. yes, they were overweighted to democrats in 2020, but i wouldn't read too much into that. and anything else you think that's going to tell you what the outcome is before the voters actually go to the polls is really sort of sifted through and hedge all that because take it with a big grain of salt. neil: got it. i forgot about the yard sign indicator, supposed to be a sign of enthusiasm for that particular candidate. you're right. all right, han, thank you very much. great catching up with you, hans nichols with axios. in the meantime, s.a.l.t. is back. i don't know if you heard this, but they might squeeze this into the pending measure, but overall state and local tax deduction debate and how much it's cut ask for whom, that is not a gimme. after this. ♪ ♪
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♪ if. neil: all right, it's called the state and local tax deduction, and right now it is capped at $10,000. so if you're in one of the pricier, high-tax states in the country, you're kind of screwed. that was all part of the trump tax plan here, and it was a way to pay for it by letting this sort of sunset after some years, about ten years. now the issue is trying to fix that, and a lot of particularly representatives, democrats almost universally in those high-tax states are trying to have a patch built into this
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large spending that they're piecing together in washington. but it might be easier said than done. but they are work on it. charlie gasparino with the potential impact. charlie. >> you know, neil, it's an incredible tight rope. and one of the reasons why is because there aren't a lot of pay-fors in this bill meaning there aren't a lot of revenue raisers that have sort of bipartisan in the democratic party -- when i say bipartisan, progressive and moderate support. kyrsten sinema joe manchin, they're against certain tax increases. the billionaires unrealized capital gains tax seems to be put on the shelf. that, i don't think, is dead yet, but it's on the shelf. is so now they're trying to, on top of all that, figure out a way because there are much higher taxes here, and it's going to impact the northeast and california this a big way, to try to figure out how to reinstate the s.a.l.t. deductions without blowing the whole thing up when this thing is still within the margin of
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error, i guess, paid for, at least according to the way joe biden and democrats call pay for. so here's the proposal i hear that they're floating right now. that you can deduct state and local taxes up to a million dollars of salary. after that, so say it's one dollar of state and local taxes, you can deduct after a million. your next million or your next penny if after that cannot be deducted in state and local taxes. so if you make $2 million, you're only deducting on your first million dollars of salary with the state and local taxes. so you get hit after you make a million dollars. now, why is this problematic particularly for wall street? the average wall street salary, and i'm talking about all in, bonus and everything, i've always been told is between $1-4 million, okay? it sounds like a lot of money, but you are living in the northeast, you are paying huge taxes. and on top of that, even with the s.a.l.t. deduction at a million or in that range, you're probably going to end up paying, having a 61% tax the rate,
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effective tax rate if you live in new york, if you live in california, if you live in connecticut, if you live in new jersey. i can tell you people at the big wall street firms are really worried, and is here's why. they believe they're going to get an exodus of those type of executives, high earners, very special people, wanting to live this florida when this thing kicks in because 61% to live in new york city and new york state is way too much a lot of people are saying. they know they can work remotely, they know there's zoom, there's ways to get around this where you can be in florida and basically not have to pay 61% of your salary in taxes. and so that's what they're worried about here. it's going to be interesting to see. now, i will say this, neil, this deal is not done this it's done, and, you know, what's weird about this whole budget process is just how much stuff leaks, how much stuff gets floated ask how much stuff gets shot down. so this s.a.l.t. deduction may be gone tomorrow, but that's
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what they're talking about today. i tell you, if you're ericed ams, and i -- eric adams, and i wrote a column about this in the new york poe today, and you want to keep the rich in your city because he knows, and he said it, they pay probably around 60% of the taxes in new york city, that sort of -- in that bag, well, guess what? those are the people that could easily leave for florida, and, you know, he's got to be worried about this. the this s.a.l.t. deduction comes in like that, people are still going to be looking for the exits, neil. back to you. neil: you know what i can't figure is how they would calculate that. let's say you live in, you know, a state with $50,000 in taxes, real estate and otherwise, and they're capping it, you know, at that million dollar income range or whatever you said. how are you going to then work backwards on the tax liability that you face versus the income that you report? >> now, i'm not an accountant. i took one class --
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[laughter] bear with me here. this is how i think it works. your million collars in salary, right? up to a million dollars it's 100%, right? $1 this state and local taxes, you can write that off. when it hits above that, then you start calculating it, and you start calculating the dollar in state and local taxes cannot be deducted. anything above that million can't be deducted. so there's, like -- neil: so really it would still limit how much you write off -- >> that's the whole thing. the you make more than a million. neil: so if you're in a city like the one behind you right now, that, eric adams if he were to be the next mayor, that's not welcome relief here. it's the slightest of respites. >> i don't know what -- you know, we've got multiple calls in to hum, because he is on the campaign trail right now. i know this for a fact. he's meeting with business groups, wealthy new yorkers in business and wall street and wooing them and saying, listen,
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we need you to stay. please don't move to florida. i don't know how he squares that with what the democrats -- neil: charlie, we have tried dozens and dozens of times, they don't even check back with us. >> well, no, they haven't -- they seem enthusiastic to get back to us yesterday, but they haven't since then. that said, i will tell you that i have friends of mine who are people i know that are part of his inner circle and part of his campaign, and they claim he's a born again supply-sider when it really comes down to it. but, you know, his silence is deafening here because the democrats are aiming at -- no matter which way you cut it, they can't, they can't totally reinstate the s.a.l.t. tax because the numbers don't work. therefore, to you come up with a scheme like this out of a million, now, a million sounds like a lot of money, and it really is. but if you live in new york city and you headache $2 million and you have a 60% tax bracket, why can't you move to florida and cut it to 38? think about that.
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neil: you're right. the battle right now is finding where you're going to get that revenue from. even if it's the million thing, therein lies the rub. >> and, by the way, neil, this thing could be changing as we speak. neil: absolutely. >> in 48 hours, who knows? this is a mess. but that's the latest thing that they're floating on s.a.l.t. neil: all right, keep us posted if you hear anything from eric adams. listen, tell him we don't bite because, man, oh, man, you know? i think a true leader talks to anyone, period. if you're comfortable enough in your goals and what you believe, you'll talk to anyone. but he doesn't yet. we'll have more after this. and. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors
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meta. >> reporter: hey there, neil. that's right, facebook's new name panned on capitol hill by both democrats and republican, if it was a movie, two thumbs down. let's take a look at some of these comments. representative alexandria ocasio-cortez, that's aoc to you, meta, as in we are a cancer to democracy, metastasizing into a propaganda machine for destroying civil society for profit. i guess she doesn't like it. republican senator march shah black burn saying: changing facebook's name doesn't change what you've done, mark. senators richard blumenthal and ed markey also isled on with criticism been piled on, but it was mark zuckerberg the ceo of facebook, now meant that, who was defiant -- meta, who was defiant saying he is not trying to deflect criticism. he said this: even though i think some people might want to make that connection, i think that's sort of a ridiculous
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thing. if anything, i think that this is not the environment that you would want to introduce a new brand in. that was mark zuckerberg to his critic. now, the new name, made public yesterday at the company's annual connect conference, zuckerberg describing the company's land to pivot to building a virtual reality universe that he says was transformed gaming, entertainment and even work. look at these pictures. this is his vision right here. but the cost of this are enormous if, and it's expected to reduce the company's operating profits by $10 billion in the short term. as you can see, that stock is higher today. but i have one question as i send it back to you, neil, is this: what happened to the acronym f.a.n.g. now that facebook is meta? is it m.a.n.g.? doesn't have the same -- neil: yeah. doesn't have the pr appeal
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either. very good point. thank you very much for that, gerri willis. gary kaltbaum with us right now. you know, gary, over the years a lot of companies have changed names, sometimes to sort of move past the controversy we can all remember value jet, the discount carrier that had a plane crash into the everglades, it was quickly looking at changing its name to air trans which would later be bought out by southwest, but the name did little to erase people's memory of that horrific crash. sometimes these things can work, a lot of times they're a little bit finer as we go through examples where they do make sense. but, by and large, they're not an instant cure for what ails your pr, huh? >> and leave no doubt, the changing of a name of facebook is not because things are going so well right now. and i must tell you i'm hoping i'm never called a cancer to democracy like they're being called at this point in time.
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look, a few problems. number one, both sides of the aisle, for if differing reasons, i mean, just driving to the hoop on them. and for some good reasons. but fundamentally, they are losing the teenagers in droves. down 13% the last couple of years, and now they're talking about another 30-40% over the next couple as competition is very, very stiff. and they're losing what i would call the cool factor. if they don't fix that up, you're going to see earnings decelerate, revenues decelerate and the high value markets, you're going a pay a stiff penalty, and that's what you're seeing in the stock right now. neil: you know, some name changes make sense if you evolve. and especially if they're subtle. like dunkin dunkin' donuts goino dunkin' or if you look at philip morris not wanting to be associated with just tobacco and going the other route.
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we can go through a lot of them and saying some of them were trying to take recognition of their new and expanded business. but this is a wholesale retreat from a name that everyone knows. and the flip side that they will still know what and who you are, right? >> correct. and, you know, with the name facebook right now, that is not carrying a lot of goodwill at this second. as i said and you said, especially with politicians who have the bully pulpit on a daily basis pounding away at them and then don't forget the whistleblowers, now more than one, that are coming out of the woodwork where they're all saying that they it profits over the safety of this country. and that is meaningful. so i guess this is an okay move on their part, but it is not going to change anything. if they do the wrong thing, it's going to be bad news for them. if they get their act together,
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it'll be better. it's now going to be on zuckerberg to see what can come of it. we hone own no stock in facebook right now. we don't have trust in the environment this second, and we been big owners in the past. but we like erring on the side of caution, and that's why we're away for right now. neil: very interesting. all right, we'll see how it sorts out. gary kaltbaum on name changes that sometimes click and others that sometimes do not. still too early to tell. in the meantime, what's happening with apple and amazon? everyone had an idea that after they announced their earnings and telegraphed their troubles that the stocks would be falling off, but they're not falling off that badly. susan li on that after this. ♪ i get knocked down, but i get up again -- ♪ you're never going to keep me down. ♪ i get knocked down, but i get up again -- ♪ you're never gonna keep me down ♪♪
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the time being with apple, but susan li has more. i'm surprised they're not selling off more. what do you make of it? >> and people bought on the dip -- neil: right, exactly. >> amazon as well. i think apple and amazon's misses really show how disrut i the supply chain crisis -- disruptive the supply chain crisis is. we'll start with apple, they made $20 billion in profit in a record september. however, i spoke to tim cook last night after the earnings and, of course, he talked aboutif the supply chain crisis and the impact. if we can bring up that quote, he says that the very strong performance -- that's what he called it, which it was -- was despite larger than expected sly constraints which we estimate to be around $6 billion. driven by industry-wide chip shortages and covid-related manufacturing shortages in southeast asia. we haven't really gotten think guidance from apple during this
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covid era, but tim cook did no vied some saying -- provide some saying it was going to be a record quarter. best quarter ever. but and here's a big butt, we expect supply constraints greater than the month of september. longer wait times for iphone 13 if than we would like and supply constraints as we've been talking about. now as for the earnings call, i listened to that laos night as well, they mainly said there's going to be deceleration when it comes to ipad ask apple services. coming from a pretty lofty high this september. but, you know, as i mentioned to you, that'll, if somebody liken apple which now makes its own chips or most of its devices but more of the legacy chip makers, the suppliers, if they are being disrupted by the global supply chain crisis and zero inventory supply chain that tim cook orchestrated, everybody else is probably going through a lot more indiana if right now. neil: -- pain right now.
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neil: very good point. at least they had a defense and an option and now less of one. thank you very much for that, susan li, following these developments. both stocks, as we pointed out, while they're selling off right now, not nearly as much as this morning. amazon was close to 5%, and at its worst level, apple by about 4.5%. we'll keep an eye on that. keeping an eye on the dow this record territory, the s&p 500 in record territory. and again, had it not been for apple and amazon, you would see the nasdaq in record territory. so far not. stay with us. ♪ ♪ .. ♪
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20 the crunch is getting crunchier the supply crunch going on all over the world and the impact in the united states of america. we you give you the latest from what is happening out west and the impact it is having in chicago for the alcohol industry. at the port of los angeles how so many cargo ships are not going anywhere. let's get the read on the impact of your booze. >> reporter: say it ain't so, costs a bubbling up for aluminum, cans, cardboard for
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packaging, ingredients like barley, transportation, just about everything on the rise in terms of prices. david abram, founder and ceo of great central brewing in ll as anybody so tell me how this is impacting your business and breweries across the country. >> aluminum prices are up 40%, they is a significant impact on everyone's bottom line. on the manufacturing side we produce not only our own brand but a variety of brands for local and regional plants so at all levels of the supply chain whether it is manufacturers, distributors, retailers everyone is being compressed by the rising costs of aluminum and rising costs predicted on the barley side. >> the hot weather made for bad harvest and you have yet to pass costs along to customers but if you look at numbers from the bureau of labor statistics it does show that alcohol prices and beer specifically
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are up 3% year-over-year. at some point your margins will be even into so much you have to pass it along to consumers. >> that is correct, suppliers across the board have done their best to absorb the volatility. a lot of that volatility is stock pricing. that has been a factor indicative of multiple factors whether it is labor shortages, rising cost in fuel or aluminum so while we've done our best to absorb it at some point you have to maintain margins but they make their way to the retail self at some point. >> reporter: early next year? >> i would say that. >> reporter: we've been talking grocery store inflation, whether it is meet prices of fresh fruit prices but once you talk about the cost of beer going up people get really irritated. neil: i could deal with the wine thing, but then there are fighting words. thank you very much.
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at the port of los angeles they are dealing with backup cargo ships but now some that aren't budging period. what is the latest? >> it could take 5000 trucks to unload the cargo from a single container vessel and they expect 46 more in the next three days, 65% of them from china but if you want to see what a trade imbalance look like look at this. the ports are so overflowing with containers they are spilling into private lots in nearby neighborhood leaving truckers without the chassiss needed to pick up the new containers a, thus the logjam. the port's are imposing a $100 fee on each container the shipping companies do not move on time and that goes up every day to 2600 a week and now
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applies to 40% of the containers, 360,000 are sitting in ports of la and long beach across, many fear, to be paid ultimately by consumers. >> they will pass that on to the cargo owner which eventually will keep adding to the outstanding bill the shippers have which is passed on to the american consumer. >> reporter: another solution, rail that can move cargo faster and reduce congestion and by opening next week, a direct express cargo train to salt lake city officials hope to take 300 trucks off the road on a single trip. >> those boxes will get to the heartland and the midwest where the larger markets are, rail is extremely critical to the supply chain and for the economy. >> reporter: so the route from
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asia still obviously very busy. i talked to two major retailers yesterday. there are concerns about prices and availability at christmas. costco very happy they leased three cargo ships and made multiple ships but on the other end of the supply chain crisis it takes three months to get an appointment at dmv to take a trucker's exam. that tells you what they are up against. neil: thank you very much. gradient long beach on how this is impacting construction projects. good like getting them resumed. what are you finding out? >> the supply-chain crisis is affecting habitat for humanity. i got my hard hat on at the construction site. we are seeing demand for single-family home spike during covid but the supply-chain is impacting everything from timing to cots, to build a home requires hundreds of different supplies many of which are severely delayed with support
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backlogs. the construction costs place, a number of building materials drop 30% this year alone. as you can see 81.3% of an increase in the mixture of these dynamics are sitting back the completion dates and driving up the cost of home ownership 20% more than a year ago. chapters across the country had assumed the cost to avoid pricing out families. at this habitat for humanity site we have ted holmes. a 2 by 4 went from costing $2 apiece to costing over $8 apiece. that is a four fold increase in lumber and when you multiply that by ten holmes it gets very expensive to keep building affordable housing. we are here with the hdtv property brothers who will be
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building alongside the habitat home today with supply-chain costs we are wondering how many more of these we will see in the future but it is a bright spot for that homeowner and the community coming together to help today. neil: thank you for that. inflation is real and rampant. the only issue is how long that is the case. it has gone way past the intransigent, the former ceo is with us. bill, you reported earnings early in the week and saying this is the wind at their back, they are able to pass along the higher prices but with the caution that they can still do so. how long do you suspect that lasts? >> it is transitory, don't you listen? i heard janet yellen double down, transitory is not a couple months but probably
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still the right word to use. my own perspective is we are at an infection point for 2022. there are a lot of price increases still to come particularly in the consumer products area. i am chairman of a company that went public in the last couple weeks, completed two weeks of board meetings at the tropic for each day was inflation. supply-chain issues are not going away no matter what anyone is telling you. you've got significant labor issues that affect the labor participation rate has declined at the level it has and we are having labor issues and people are having to pay off for labor and energy prices are up and we have to import more oil. none of this will go away short-term and it astounds me. i was in 2 economists. i have more faith in whether people than i do in economists. neil: we have an apps for that. before i digress, janet yellen said spending bills being debated right now will be
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anti-deflationary. they will lower key costs. what did you think of that? >> i used to read dr. seuss to my kids and grandkids and we are in dr. seussland. the later, the biggest country, the freest country in the world throws around the word free which is the most powerful word in marketing and apparently the most powerful word in politics and in socialist countries i get very concerned. there is no way, i don't care what economists are saying, no way that as you increase spending on top of $20 trillion in debt, with currently low interest rates which are eventually going to have to move the it is not going to be inflationary, basic economics don't make sense. one thing that is annoying to me his watch the business community fall in line with this and say it will be transitory and we work through it. i can tell you the worst
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pricing is yet to come particularly on grocery shelves and i suspect the same is true in energy. the trickle-down effect we used to think was positive in terms of economics will be a trickle up affect in terms of the impact of inflation and everyone's pocketbook. lauren: a slightly different take on that owing to the market strength, surprising strength through all of this, this idea that people are paying higher prices. one thing you hear from companies like your own, craft saying this is happening, people are paying higher prices, mcdonald's passed along higher prices, chip only will pay them and inflation ends when people stop doing that. they are not stopping doing that. what does that tell you? >> a couple things at work here. one of them is important that people are overlooking and that
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is first time in three or four decades, the consumer industry has price leverage. we haven't had in a long time. price increases were like pulling teeth in terms of getting through retailers but the retailers are feeling the pain we are as well so getting price increases through has been pretty good. consumers up to a point particularly during the holidays will spend what is required, and by the products they are interested in. that will end. private-label comeback a private branding will come back in a big way, the retailer will get tired of accepting price increases because they take the brunt of consumer accusations of pricing up so this will last for a while in the industry itself will pass this on but if you look at most of the reports, margins are contracting and ultimately those margins contract means other things are going to have to contract as well whether it is the workforce, supply,
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number of skus on the shelf. i hear everyone out there preaching the gospel of optimism but i have just been through this too many times to not be concerned. that is why i said this is an infection point, my own view is i don't think we have seen the worst. i do think ultimately we will see some consumer pushback and if we can't all these labor problems over the next 6 to 9 month i don't think the supply-chain issues will go away either. neil: starbucks wants to raise rates to $17 an hour. starbucks is under some pressure today on that news. you have to sell a lot of coffee. that is an expensive place for coffee, cost $100 a cup but that aside you have to sell a lot of coffee to pay for that.
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>> you are going to have to sell a lot of coffee and same across the board. i chuckle when people talk about $15 minimum wage. industries would love to get away with a $15 minimum wage. reality is we have a home in jackson hole, walk down the streets to any of these places and there are help wanted signs everywhere, people are desperate for employees. that will have an impact on business at its success. it will have to be passed on so inflation will continue for a while but ultimately people do get tired of it and there will be a reaction. i'm old enough, you are not, to remember the 70s when this turned into stagflation, 2% gdp growth was not encouraging to me. i do think it is a one up but if that were to stay along this inflation we bring back the old misery index and the old terms of stagflation and that will be a real issue to address. neil: if you are in naples a
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lot of the time they don't mind the price increases. they can handle it. >> would you tell that to my wife of 48 years? as i said if every economist in the country were required to walk down grocery aisles or through department stores, go and buy a cup of coffee instead of sending someone to get a lot of this might go away over time in the word transitory would be shelved quickly. every time i hear that word i burst into laughter. neil: there is nothing transitory about what is happening right now. bill johnson, who used to run craft, historic economic trends as well, the dow is moving slightly along, the s&p 500 record territory. what is interesting right now is back and forth going on on capitol hill, the president and democrats talking about being able to cobble something together by next week at the latest and get something done but what will the final figure be? after this.
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neil: we have a deal, framework on a deal, normally that implies the next step is getting a deal. we were wrong on the framework part. hillary vaughan is on capitol hill, where are we here? >> there is no vote happening this week a house and senate are out and they extended the surface transportation funding, the artificial deadline they were working with, so that is extended another month so they have some time. while the framework is worked out the president has a new price tag, $1.75 trillion. the price tag must be wearing a halloween cost him because it is not what it seems and
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instead of trick or treat it as tricks for trees. the plan uses budgetary gimmicks to deliver progressives their wish list. the manhattan institute dug into the parameters for the social spending, if these programs are kept in place, the actual top is closer to $7.5 trillion. the analysis says social spending relies on mathematics, gymnastics to distract from the true cost putting and expiration dates to programs they believe will be permanent, claiming the partial cost of programs, not using the cbo score to estimate the real cost and using inflated revenue estimates for tax increases they say completely cover the tab but might not actually do it. >> this will pay for a couple years, they are piling up debt,
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trillions of debt and they are happy to do it. >> reporter: the price tag could go up because it's framework is not a done deal. they tried to add some priorities that were dropped out that even though the president landed in rome empty-handed with the infrastructure bill and social spending bill stalled, the white house is taking a victory lap. >> the government for too long has been in deadlock unable to get anything done because people are unwilling to come together and find consensus and common ground. he is delivering on that. >> reporter: it typically refers to getting republicans and democrats to work together, not necessarily to get people of your own party to work together and not against the president. neil: that is an important discussion. the liberal commentator, maybe left of center, very good to
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see you. where do you think this is, you want to see this get done. what does it mean for democrats? >> it is problematic for the midterms. this is critical that president biden and speaker pelosi and majority leader schumer wrangle the democrats to get this past. the american people want to see, this is why we elected joe biden as president. we want an investment back in the american people. we saw with the previous administration a massive giveaway to the wealthiest americans, billionaires double their wealth essentially through a pandemic that killed 7000 americans still ongoing, $6 trillion spent in places like afghanistan and for less
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than what it cost us for failed adventure in afghanistan to reinvest in the american people, so those energy prices are not so volatile, independence on foreign sources of oil and investing in early childhood education. stuart: you can differ on the tax cuts benefiting the rich with most americans, but the ordeal thing actually started with president biden when he froze domestic production and that is when oil began. you could argue the energy sources, you could argue with the push for other sources this is a fine idea with the extent of fossil fuels, that was a strategic mistake. >> we talked about this a little before. i don't agree with that. that did exacerbate the
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situation we are facing now, natural gas and oil prices, as a result much higher, that was problematic. that is why we need to shift away from being so dependent on hydrocarbon sources for our energy. we have unbelievable amounts of geothermal potential, solar, wind. neil: you wouldn't want to leave the traditional stuff. we are not prepared to take the energy training wheels off if that is the way you look at fossil fuels to just abandon that and go full throttle on this other stuff which is a fine idea but keep what we have got and doing very well in this country with traditional energy sources on top of those. >> i think while we are still hydrocarbon economy, investment in this new plan from president biden, the compromise plan allows us to more rapidly shift away. states like california, making those efforts and we pass the law to do it and we are struggling because we need that
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federal help and it needs to be a broader plan to get implemented. neil: i didn't mean to get sidetracked on that. i to ask the role of the president. he doesn't seem able, not disparagingly but i don't see him leading the charge or influencing anyone. i am wondering if that is the problem. he is just not running with the ball and getting everyone going in the same direction. barack obama was a lot more effective selling his affordable care act, bill clinton was a lot more effective rallying his own troops in the early days of his administration on other initiatives. i don't see that out of president biden. don't know what is going on but he is not wowing or impressing or creating any fear among his members. i am curious what you make of that.
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>> one of the key differences than the previous democratic president is the razor thin margin in the senate is the biggest issue so we have two senators besides 50 republicans who say no to everything. we saw that with the january 6th commission where they negotiate kevin mccarthy on the house side, negotiated for a commission and when we gave them what they wanted he abandoned anyway so there's no good faith on the other side of the aisle. neil: not a single one on that but not unique to democrats or republicans shutting out, both parties do that. >> what appear to be large donors influencing two senators, no billionaires in west virginia but hundreds of thousands living in poverty yet
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a senator who doesn't want to take care of those who need the help the most and those who don't live -- neil: being a moderate doesn't make it a contest. >> never. i think we have a limited number of people on the communist side. neil: i mentioned that, the role of bernie sanders, you heard from moderates who say why is he sitting between for the progressive caucus calling all the shots, are they pushing democrats into a corner they can't crawl out of? what do you think? >> this also is part of a tough negotiation and you and i both know in our lifetimes how difficult negotiations can look really bad while they are happening and in the last minute something gets pulled out and the key is they have to
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pull something out otherwise i think it will be deeply damaging for the midterms next year. the democrats have to pass something. neil: they want to grab a victory from the jaws of defeat. always great catching up with you. you heard the timeframe, they don't have a lot of time. they have some wiggle room. it is coalescing around whether moderates and progressives can come together on this. even touched on the core of the problem. there is no wiggle room. that is the problem. after this. ♪♪ ♪♪
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the run. >> terry mcauliffe versus virginia. that is what is on the ballot. terry mcauliffe who believes in big government control is the answer, who believes government should stand between parents and their children. >> glenn young to begin will do whatever donald trump with him to do. 's whole campaign has been dog whistle, critical race theory which is not taught in virginia. election integrity, crt and all these other things, this is a donald trump-induced election. neil: election days next tuesday, it is getting nasty. the fact the context of virginia and new jersey looks pretty interesting, some people expect more of this in days to come. real clear politics white house correspondent, the virginia races, fascinating and all but interesting even in new jersey where there is more of a
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cushion for incumbent governor phil murphy. and among independents it turned upside down. what is going on in these states? how would you describe it? >> the democrats have been running a lazy kind of messaging that their opponent, the republican opponent, trying to paint them like donald trump. president biden came out into virginia to campaign for terry mcauliffe and he cited donald trump 24 times. it doesn't seem like, glenn youngkin, no one -- he broke the mold. glenn youngkin is a soft-spoken, moderate type of person. it is not sticking. and you have the issues of education and economics, the things that voters deeply care about that are coming to the floor especially in the
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virginia race, the turned as we've seen in the latest fox news poll a 5 point lead for terry mcauliffe into an 8 decaliter youngkin, that could be an outlier poll but it shows moment him for republicans closing in on tuesday's race. neil: you follow this more closely than i but bringing in people like president biden, vice president kamala harris has not closed the deal. i am wondering if they hurt more than they helped. i see some impact from barack obama's visit but even there, this idea you push the race on the republican side to say that candidate or whoever the champ challenger is of a trump acolyte might have worked in california but doesn't seem to be working neither of these states.
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>> california had larry elder who was more right-leaning but even there, the final result, gavin newsom got when he got into thousand 18, the margin was the same. always prognosticating but in the end it didn't mean that much. in terms of these other candidates, youngkin, the primary winner, youngkin was the more moderate. they had trouble making the trump label stick, these bad stories coming out in northern virginia where republicans need their turnout because that is a democratic stronghold and these energizing stories coming out about school boards, a sad situation where this young girl is raped and the judge found
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out this past week, the defendant was guilty. a young man, of raping a woman in the classroom, in a bathroom and was wearing a skirt. it is really motivated by what i call the mama bears and papa bears that got energized against school boards during the covid lockdowns. some have been apolitical and they are more motivated to say what is going on here? >> he dismissed the role of parents looking at these issues. if he ended up losing this race it might be traced back to that. we will see, thank you very much. appreciate it. >> there is going to be a serious supply shortage this christmas. that we know but don't blame amazon because it is prepared
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shortages will impact your holiday plans and gifts were part of the lot of the biggest players in this, already spending billions of dollars to make sure these disruptions are less disruptive. the senior economic analyst, danielle say, trading director of options. let's begin with you. obviously amazon spend a lot of money to make sure things get under that tree and i am wondering given the problems apple and others are citing that could prove easier said than done. >> it could be easier said than done and i think this will impact amazon's earnings but that is why they made it so apparent. what investors should look at is the structure, they may be spending billions this quarter but guess what, in the future,
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their own distribution line will make amazon stronger long-term. neil: it was interesting a lot of companies prior to the news were talking about higher prices that customers are dealing with it and they pass those price increases along. consumer giants, mcdonald's, craft, what do you make of that and how they are dealing with the price up texas. >> great to have you back. companies are struggling with the question of when, if at all, do they pass these price increases because of the higher costs they are experiencing and it is fascinating, amazon
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hiring 150,000 workers for the holidays, the average price of $18 an hour along with reported $3,000 hiring bonus and they obviously feel they can't fulfill their business objectives by doing that and that occurs at the same time the natural retail federation says the number one gift people want this year is a gift card. maybe there is beauty and virtues air in trying to avoid supply chain challenges. you can find gift cards. neil: whoever you send a gift card to, that was creative. danielle, when you look at what spending plans are or the fact a lot of people are ready for
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halloween, another holiday, that is off the charts spending for that, if that is setting the stage for christmas what do you see going on? >> it definitely is. consumer spending is strong, many know the supply chains of been an issue overall but i still think this is going to be a strong christmas season and there will be impacts with earnings but looking at the price chart on amazon, it has been consolidation for quite a while and if you look at the last two times it broke out of that consolidation it had a massive move to the upside. i think these issues are good buying opportunities for when the holiday season has passed and everything went all right and people are back to buying amazon but will be late. neil: it is a strong consumer.
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do you see that happen? >> let's back away from that and acknowledge we see this terminology all-time put the reality is there is and one consumer but a consolation of kinds of consumers and as the economy experiences this, moving forward, lower income consumers, one survey indicated more than they did before. somewhere between 8.5, 10.five%. that is a dollar weighted number, inflation pushes the number up. they will continue undaunted and fuel much of that gain. neil: i have heard and seen a lot of news on those surveys and always think people undershoot what they plan to spend and end up spending more regardless where they are.
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what are your thoughts? >> i completely agree with that and i think lower income consumers are spending in different places than higher income consumers. this year we see a lot of data that demonstrates, they are spending money in places like dollar tree, those companies are performing well. i agree with mark, we need to look at where they are spending their money. walmart is another example. that has been from a stimulus check. neil: interesting read on where we stand on holiday spending. the barrel good news, janet yellen doesn't think inflation will be a big deal, the package they are working on far from adding to inflation will get it under control. david asman on that next.
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neil: people worried about inflation, government spending if they got a final framework done. treasury secretary janet yellen says this will not be inflationary and over the years will lower cost. what do you think of that? will lower costs. >> i would put it the opposite. how can we not have inflation. look at all the money that has been spent and created. we haven't begun to spend all the money allocated. we have a chart of covid money and this is bipartisan, started under trump, continuing under president biden. look at all the trillions of dollars that have been out here, $5.9 trillion have been either dispersed or allocated in legislative actions. look at the federal reserve, the bottom chart, $6.8 trillion in federal reserve actions, that is called monetizing the
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debt because that is what is happening. the fed is buying up 60% of the debt that is issued by the treasury. that is close to monetizing the debt. what it led to because it is not just the demand side, that we call the demand side. there is also the supply side. how much stuff is made by the economy or how many services being supplied by our economy. the labor shortage is creating terrible supply problems. that leads to the word stagflation and we had a summer of stagflation which is why we had 2% growth, pretty small growth at 5% inflation from may through august so when you have double the amount of inflation growth, you end up behind. janet yellen is trying to poke lipstick on a pig and it won't
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make it. neil: we came from an economy in park to one that was just getting back to whatever we considered normal and that is going from park to 60 miles per hour to prices go up. that is what we are seeing play out. the year over year comparisons are tougher that goes down, inflation will be a historic event. >> we have been stimulating demand with creation of these dollars, we haven't been stimulating supply because we have been hitting on so many fronts, we have 11 million until jobs for a reason. there has been policy that killed the creation of jobs for people motivated to go out and take jobs. so there are so many people building things or so many
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all right, we prophet dow, s&p and nasdaq in record territory and whatever we could say about always going on today, still up, major averages, go figure. charles payne back now. >> i'm happy to see you, too. good afternoon, i am charles payne, this is making money and breaking right now, the quietest session of the week but in many ways, this is the most impressive. i have the weekend, two behemoths are under huge pressure. look like investors are finding fresh leaders in technology, communication services, consumer discretionary. we want to cover those names
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