participation rate, february of last year was 73, 72.8 and out 70.6. 4000020 - 20 -year-olds are gone they're not in labor force. david bahnsen, great stuff. the market edging higher. obviously wall street likes what they heard so far were going to take it over to liz claman she will continue coverage of jay powell. liz: breaking news financials and semi conductors spiking of the federal reserve reveals the tapered timeline. it will taper back by $15 billion per month as early as the middle of this month, let's go back to the federal reserve, chairman jay powell is taking questions from the media. >> we think we will be. that is how we are thinking about it. i think judge mentally it is appropriate to be patient is appropriate for us to see what the labor market and what the

economy look like when they heal further. were on a path to a different place as i mentioned when delta arrived, delta stopped job creation, estop the transition away from a good focused economy where there is excess demand for goods because their services are not available, people are not traveling. that transition itself could bring inflation down because people would spend a little less on goods while they start spending more on travel. and all sorts of travel services and things like that. we want to see the healthy process unfold as we decide what the true state of the economy is. we think it'll evolve in a way that will be lower inflation, bottleneck should be abating we start to see that with some of them but overall they have not gotten better and were very aware of that. that is our thinking about it, were thinking time will tell us

more in the meantime we don't think it's time to raise rates now. if we do conclude that it's necessary to do so then will be patient but we won't hesitate. >> let's go to edward lawrence at fox business. >> take you for taking the call, i want to talk about climate change, the federal reserve released a statement they support the efforts to edify key issues on potential solutions for the climate related challenges most relevant to central banks and treasury outcomes. is this coming up on a path to regulate what banks can offer loans on or invested like coal plants or fossil fuels? >> that is not a decision for bank regulators or any agency that is for elected representatives. we feel any role that we have, we do think we have a role in climate change, it relates to our existing mandates and they are really regulation of financial institutions. we expect them to expect them to

understand a being in a position to manage the risks. that is physical risk and transition risk for climate and the financial institutions are doing this already and we think that's right within our mandate. there's also financial stability question, the overall stability of the financial system, from that standpoint we can do research and try to help understand what will the pathways be through which climate change affects the economy both physical risk and transaction risk. that's what we can do and that's what we will do. we will do it well within the frame of our existing mandates we will do it well. we are not the people who will decide the national strategy on climate change. that has to be elected people and not so much as. we feel like we have that narrow mandate. we will do it well. >> thank you, victoria at

politico. >> high chair powell. the fed recently announced there is going to be a new conflict of interest rules for investments by fed officials. this follows the resignation of two fed presidents. i'm just wondering do you think there is more that you will need to do to rebuild the credibility of the fed such as acquiring officials to put their assets and blind trust and also if you could speak to whether you have any concerns or rules or law that were broken by government officials. >> let me just say the system, the ethics system in place for decades and as far as we know service well and then that was no longer the case. we had no moment of denial about that and as a group we stopped in and we took the action that we took.

within one cycle we announced a new set of rules to try to put us back where we need to be, we need to have the complete trust of the american people that are working in our interest all the time, absolutely critical to our work as it is for any government agency. i fall under feel like this called into question, we reacted strongly and forcefully. if there were other things that we could do that were reasonable, we would certainly do them. you ask about blind trust, the overall authority for ethics around these issues and the federal government is the opposite of government ethics. oge, they have a long-held position which is not favorable to blind trust, they do not encourage them, they do not think they are effective, they think they're cumbersome and they think there are better ways to get at the things that need to be done and those are the

doing i don't know if there is blind trust for that reason because they say this on their website if you look. in terms of laws broken, i asked the inspector general to see whether there were rules broken and whether there were laws broken and i won't speculate on that but that is with the inspector general and out of my hands. >> thank you we will go to mike mckee at bloomberg. >> mr. chairman the critics of your patients policy argue that given the long and variable lags which monetary policy works that you are likely to end up given inflation by having to raise rates faster and farther than you would've liked and therefore send the economy into recession. given the fact that basically your forecast has been chasing

inflation over the last year and now you're talking about not coming onto the second or third quarter, why would they be wrong in thinking that. >> let me say, what's happened we are very straightforward about it. inflation has come in higher-than-expected and bottlenecks have been more persistent and more prevalent. we see that just like everybody else. we see that they're on track to persist well into next year. that was now expected by us another. >> under macro forecasters. let me say it's difficult to forecast the economy in normal times, when you're talking about global supply chain in turmoil ,

told everything in you're talking about a pandemic that is holding people out of the labor force for reasons that we can sample but we don't have a lot of experience so it's very difficult to forecast and not easy to set policy. we have to set policy, that's what were doing and to look at your question this way i don't think we are behind the curve, i believe policy is well positioned to address the range of possible outcomes and that's what we need to do. i do think it be premature to raise rates today i think that's controversial and certainly i don't know anyone arguing for that today. the reason there is still ground to cover to get to maximum employment. we do not want to stop that when there is good reason to think, there is still good reason to think although it's been delayed clearly there is good reason to think that the economy seen in global supply chains around

goods in our own domestic ports because demand is stronger than the capacity of those ports. those things will work themselves out. we have a flexible economy. it will take some time but the experts managed to create a vaccine, certainly faster than i expected and this will work itself out over the course of next year. that is my baseline understanding and is widely held among people. but we are prepared for different eventualities, we will use our tools to achieve track enterprise stability and maximum appointment and we will get elected to lead us to where we need to go. our policy will adapt, 30 adapted. to the changing understanding of inflation and a bottlenecks and the whole supply-side story which is also partly a demand story. our policy will continue to adapt as appropriate. >> let's go to nancy marshall at

marketplace. >> high chair powell, thank you for taking my question. you know the fed will taper at a rate starting at $15 billion a month, that's more than twice the paste of the last paper. why are you tapering faster this time questioning. >> the economy is in quite a different place than when we tapered back into thousand 13. we were much farther away from maximum employment, inflation was much lower. this is an economy where demand is very, very strong, very strong and job openings substantially exceed the number of unemployed people. the need for further stimulus is far less than it was in 2013 when we had a ways to go. after we begin the taper, was many years before we reached what i would characterize as conditions consistent with maximum employment let alone price stability. this is a different situation

and the committee unanimously felt that we weighted the test, and this is appropriate and this is faster than what people had expected six months ago, it is earlier and faster and that is because as i mentioned, our policy has been adapting to the situation as it evolves, as it's clarifying. that's partly because we see inflation coming in higher. >> let's go to mike derby. >> thank you for taking my question. i wonder if the fed has given thoughts to the ending for the balance sheet in terms of once you get the taper process complete, will you hold the balance sheet study or will you passively wind down and then a related question, do you have any greater insight into what said bond buying does for the

economy in terms of the economic impact, have you been able to measure it or quantify it in any fashion because i'm sure there's been questions what is bond buying doing to help the economy. >> in terms of the balance sheet, the questions that you mention we haven't gone back to them that's exactly what we will do and will do an orderly fashion and will talk about reinvestment all those things. and we don't have to make decisions on those yet but typically we were doing it is subject like that, we will have a series of briefings and discussion and that's what we will begin to do. in terms of the effect an asset purchase on the economy. there is a tremendous amount of research and scholarship on this and you can find different people coming out different views. i would say the most mainstream view would be your at the effect of lower bound, how do you

affect the longer-term rates there is two ways, one you can't lower rates let's say you can't lower rates any further hypothetically. you can get forward guidance and say were gonna keep the rates low for a period of time until certain conditions are met, the markets will do the math, that will have an effect on longer-term borrowing even ten or 30 years out. that is one thing another thing go by the securities, longer-term securities, that will drive down longer-term rates and hold them lower and rates right across, lower rates encourage more borrowing and economic activity, people that you can service your debt and more free cash flow. it is not different from what we do at the short end. i think milton freedman said that is what you can do many, many years ago. it is quite hard to be for

precise because you only want economy and you can't run two different economies next to each other into a scientific experiment. most of the findings are that it does support economic activity in the way that you would expect which is to say at the margin more economic activity with lower rates, we do more financial conditions that lead to more economic activity over time. i think that's the main finding on qed. >> we are going to go to paul at cnn. >> chair powell you have addressed already questions about the stock purchases that took place to the regional fed president and addressing the american people to make sure that they can trust the fed. i was wondering in light of the fact that we now have questions

about your own future and whether or not president biden will nominate where a second term. what would you say to the president and two senators that potentially will be voting on a renomination about this specifically with regards to your future as fed chair for a possible second term. >> i will answer your question but i will have any, on the renomination process at all. i will say i have briefed administration officials and i briefed people on capitol hill in detail about what we did and why we did it. and seeking their feedback in getting their reaction. part of my job congress has oversight over the fed and we take that very seriously. if you are on whatever to committees that has oversight over us then i'm in regular contact with you and when

something like this comes up, i'm on the phone and offering to meet with you and explain it and answer questions and identify any concerns that people might have that's part of my job i do talk about quicker conversations and i certainly do in this case. >> let's go to the american banker. is the fed seeking on ways to permanently address that and how to intermediate and the treasury markets? >> i don't have anything for you on supplemental right now. we are looking at ways, if there are ways we can address liquidity issues through that channel. we also have a working group headed by treasury over treasury

markets and what happened in the acute phases of the pandemic and what structural things may need to be done. that may be part of the work stream, i know there's a lot going on and i'm not sure when that report will be out. it is work underway, that's one of the many issues along with central clearing is a huge public benefit i think we need to do those things that enable that while assuring safety and soundness of our largest financial institutions who tend to be the main dealers. that's always a first order of concern as well. >> just expand on the ethics

conversation, you talk about how you engage with people on capitol hill in the administration to new talked about what you've done i wondered if you could take a step back and assess whether or not whether there was damage with the public's view or the financial community of the view of the federal reserve independence and when you look back to you thoughts on individual responsibility from having that happen? >> it is too soon to say what the reputational damages. i think from the very beginning my reaction was we need to deal with this straightforward and transparently and forcefully and that's what we will do. it means everything to me that we do whatever it takes to make sure nothing like this happens again. i like to think we made a real good start. you cannot execute a trade unless it is precleared and then you have to say execute, it is not even a trade, there is no

trading going on, listens for investment and getting liquidity for life's expenses, the you have to wait 45 days to actually execute that sale or purchase. it's a pretty good system and we will always be looking to make a better and in terms of our dependence we will address this and i think we have and i like to think it is enough, but it is just beginning to implement. we have to write the rules we need more people we will have to resources more significantly at the board, we are going to need appropriate technology. the fed has more system than 30000 and please, not all of them, far fewer will be covered by this. but the senior officers who will be covered by this will have to

have technology access and it will have to work efficiently. there is a lot of work to do to implement. again i would just say this system has been a place for decades, it was in place when i took over, it was in place for at least the last three or four chairs and it was what it was and it proved to have weaknesses. part of that across the system. i'm a big believer in the federal reserve system and the federal reserve banks, young 12 different officers at 12 different banks and ethics people here and compliance was not well exactly the same, was a little bit different and also the rules, we did not imagine the problems that would happen, they may actually have been clients with specifics of our

rules, and don't do anything that would that's clear that was a good appearance. we are where we are and we have to do with it for rightly in transparency and own it, step up to me this moment. i am totally committed to doing that again if there's better ideas i would love to hear them. i think we have so far made a good start. >> you spoke with the administration officials, does that include the president? >> i'm not going to answer who i spoke to at all. i'm not going to start down that road. >> were to go to jeff cox for the last question.

>> i'm going to dig a little bit deeper unemployment we see what's been called the great resignation, folks leaving their jobs and record numbers. is there any feeling there that you been accused of fighting the last war that the labor dynamics have changed in the post-covid environment and full employment may not look like what look like before? >> what is happening, people are leaving their jobs, they are quitting their jobs in all-time high numbers. in many cases going back to employment getting higher wages. a lot of the higher wages you are seeing are for job switchers rather than cabinets. that is a sign of really strong labor market. as opposed to people running often quitting. there are significant number of

retirements, we will just have to see what that means. toward the end of the last cycle which is the longest in our recorded economic history, we did see labor force participation moving up well above what the economists estimate the trend and part of that, people staying in the labor force, or just not retiring at the rate they're expected to retire. maybe this is just catch up on that. i am a believer over time, you will not know how far, you won't know what can happen with labor force participation in advance. you just have to give it time. we saw that over and over again. there are things where we can say this is where the limit is. labor force participation is much more flexible subject for me and i do think we need to be humble about what the limits are of labor force participation. we expect labor force participation to pick up we

don't know the pace at which it will do so. in terms of appointment. as i discussed earlier, the very beginning of the recovery, the natural thing to do integrate 2010 at the end of the longest expansion in our history so much to like about the labor market and historically good labor market, never perfect but a good labor market. we are a different world now, this is very different. the pandemic recession was the deepest and the recovery has been the fastest. wages did not really go down and real incomes were more than fully replaced by fiscal policy. although this is completely unusual. an economy where inflation was driven by services is now inflation were all the inflation is in goods which had negative

inflation for quarter of a century. you ask about full employment. i am very open to the thought that it is going to be an empirical question of where it is located and we are going to learn more and more. one thing we will learn, i hope we will learn in the near-term, once a delta variant really does continue to decline, what is going to happen to employment. will we see over the winter significant increases in jobs again. if you look back to three, six and nine months job creation between 150,600,000. if you think of that, you don't have to think back to the million job months of june and july. you can take 550 - 600 if we can get back on that path we would make good progress and we would like to see that of course. we will know so much more. believe mewe understand it's a different world in many ways and were very open to that.

>> thank you, mr. chair and thank you all for joining us today. liz: breaking news, and 12 days the federal reserve will begin weaning the economy off the monthly billions of stimulus straight out of the chute, jay powell dropped the headline beginning later this month the federal reserve will cut its purchases of treasuries which is been a total of 120 billion per month overall by 10 billion per per month emerging back security by 5 billion per month, jerome powell also adjusting his language on inflation instead of outright insisting that price hikes are transitory or temporary, the f1c is now saying inflation is elevated, reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory. let me translate for you, they are not sure that is temporary because it's lasting longer and

we are seeing serious dislocation and prices lately. the market is in favor of the fed's move. the downturn positive as jay powell spoke, the dow, s&p 500 and nasdaq are on pace to close all-time highs which would mean for records in a row for the dow, five straight for the s&p and the nasdaq. it's really the nasdaq that is the biggest percentage gain or up nearly 8% at the moment. the fed left rates at near 0 that was a unanimous decision. but they left the door open to the pace of tapering as the american economy shifts. at this moment the fed plans to cut all of the $120 billion in purchases 20 by june of 2022. before this statement but show you the progression, the ten year treasury yield stood at 1.57% and then tipped lower when it was released at 2:00 p.m. eastern. right now at 1.5%. the u.s. dollar hit session laws at the same time.

a lot of experts are saying this was profit-taking, a lot of people who were along the dollar, right now the dollar, we have again lowered but the pound and the euro are higher against the u.s. coming back gold. its losses, it is still down by 1% or $18 but it had been down more. the wall street volatility dipped at the time of the statement, no fear because there was not a big push against when we might see a rate lift off. right now the index drop important half% which leads me to the admission from the statement any indication of when the fed will be ready to move rates from 0 to quarter% level interest-rate level omit, was not there take a look at the fed funds features the betting poll as to when rates will liftoff,

for july is 75% profitability that rates will begin to rise by that summer months. guess what, an hour earlier it was at 90%. why is jay powell not ready to do this. listen. >> we don't meet the liftoff because were not maximum employment. if we do conclude that it's necessary to do so, then we will be patient but we will not hesitate. liz: patient but not hesitate. let's bring in our fed expert, brian westberry, michelle gerard, markets cohead of global economics and back by popular demand, the present who was here yesterday show, here's what he said. >> there so far behind the eight ball list is embarrassing and i hope they catch up as soon as they can but i just don't see it happening tomorrow. liz: that is indeed the global fixed income head, andy are they closer to catching up or still well behind the curve?

>> it's not only still well behind the curve, the getting further behind the curve, the idea of bringing transitory not addressing inflation, we saw a nice shift in the oak curve, at 2:00 o'clock we are seven platter and they reverse the seven basis points another steeper on the day. what it tells you, the stock market picked up on this, they're knocking to raise rates anytime soon or, they're going to fight as long as they can. the long part of the bond market in the not so happy about that. clearly i would love to hear what the other guests have to say about it. liz: let's get to michelle gerard what you have to say about that and how does jay powell and the rest of the federal reserve justify rates at 0 without a definitive moment he can say it is getting to be time when we look and say let's go. >> i think the announcement was right initially. with the announcement of taper

maybe starting a month sooner confirming adobe finished by year. you saw initially the yield curve in the reaction it's near flat. at the press conference ways on and we heard from the fed chair you can hear all the caveat, there was more of an explanation of why they were going to continue to move slow and why they needed to be patient not only about inflation but the economic outlook. in the risk that the economy faces in both directions. that's why you fall, we actually saw the market saying there is an acknowledgment about inflation being temporary but were not really stepping up the timeframe for which we want to think about taking action on interest rates, replacing expectation on the margin went up with the steepening of the curb. liz: inflation, something really caught my ear and i'm wondering

if it caught yours. specifically he seemed to claim that inflation, the price hikes are due to solely the supply chain blockages that were seen right now, i personally consider wage inflation part of inflation people have to raise prices if they're paying people more, look at fedex and procter & gamble, let's listen to specifically how he put it and i want your response, here is powell. >> inflation is not due to a tight labor market, it is due to bottlenecks short shortages and strong demand neediness. i think it's not the classical situation where you have the precise trade-off. liz: is he right or wrong? >> i think he is wrong, this reminds me of the 1970s, i have to tell you i was young

during the 70s but i have read every economic report of the president, i have read many economic books from the 1970s and the federal reserve did the same thing back then that they're doing today, they misunderstood where inflation was coming from. it is coming from the printing of too much money. it is not because of opec, it is not because of supply chain problems, it is not because were buying goods and not services, it is coming from printing too much money. let me add one other quick point, the reason the fed ever has to do quantitative easing is because the financial system is in trouble. our banks have never been better capitalized, they'd never been more profitable. we don't have a financial problem in the u.s., the reason unemployment is high or higher than it was is because of the pandemic. it has nothing to do with the fed. this idea that we need to buy

any bonds or holding rates at 0 today is just a justification for moving slow. i think the fed will have more and more in more inflation as the next few years unfold. liz: who gets the proverbial screw, i say that only because the savers have sat there waiting to get some kind of return on their money markets or savings accounts and again, year after year this is not happening. >> absolutely true as far as who gets a benefit, whatever equity investors have been giving the benefit the last few years and it looks like it will continue and am looking for correction sometime next year, the rates are way too low and inflation is way too high and no matter how we did or what you thought, do you see tapering. >> whatever anyway just we have

the supply chains dissipating we all know they wanted to be anytime soon, we still need to put 5 million people to work in a tight labor market. there are a lot of contradictions and i can't explain them all. maybe michelle can. >> we don't have a tight labor market? >> i am just concerned because i feel like the fed is looking to the wrong lens, they have echoes of the financial crisis and there is so little comparison of any parallel, what is happening a completely different set of circumstances. i still feel like they're scarred by that experience on inflation which is having them be much too concerned about the slowing and potential risks to taking action of hurting the

economy and they can get inflation. it's not a demand problem, it is a classic, there is no counter to the two mandates. it's not a fed induced issue. liz: is the fed scarred or blinded, we have october adp report, 571,000 private-sector job that is way higher than what was expected. >> going to michelle's point i think they are scarred from the financial panic from 2008. there are all these people who believe that the first round of quantitative easing, we did qe1, qe2, qe three from 2008 and 2015 and we did not get any inflation. this one is different. what happened back then, the monetary base the quantitative

easing did not flow when to the m2 measure of money and never expanded the deposits in the banking system in a huge way this time we have 36%, one third more m2 that is deposited in all banks. today that we had back in february of 2020 you cannot increase the money supply by 36% without having inflation. it is so simple, you mentioned milton freedman, he said watching too. i believe milton freedman was right and jerome powell is wrong. liz: you are the best of the best, thank you very much. we can simply say it'll be great. the stock market you don't fight the fed and you don't fight the tape we are close to session highs for the dow, nasdaq and s&p. the ten year treasury yield

jumped up above the 1.6% for the first time in a week after the fed's decision and right now we have about 1.588. the dollar week against trading partners currencies. meanwhile ethereum bringing it to crypto, ethereum hit a record high of 4662, let's get right to the floor show we are throbbing people a lot of different metrics and data points, teddy and scott, let me start with scott, it's very crucial to note that the banking index, the bk x is looking very healthy because financials do well and interestingly enough the crypto currency looking decent. what are you thinking here. >> there is a lot of movement going on, people are trying to figure out where do you take your money, what is safe and

what's not, where are the risk factors. as you pointed out earlier we sell the movement in the dollar, they're moving down a little bit after the fed's announcement. and the fact is maybe some of that money is going into the crypto currencies and helping to support. it is an alternative and very few alternatives out there for investors and traders to put their money in. there is no real place to put your money as far as asset classes where you get the liquidity and you can get returns that are in excess of the rate of inflation. what i thought was interesting to note about what you were saying about wage inflation. we are seeing wage inflation happening all over the place walmart is putting up billboards, $28 an hour from warehouse workers. over the weekend i saw a truck and we had a big sign $2500 a week to drive a truck that's a hundred and two to $5000 a year.

we have never seen that jumping wages before. i think that is adding what is going on here. you also have the fed trying to balance to other things powell is up for recertification early next year and we don't want to move rates up to fast ahead of her trading partners because it's only going to create a lot of arbitrage opportunities and throw off the world dynamics as far as rates. liz: does this gel you put it through the crucible and what comes out joe like the fed stay in equities. i see why any of the other crypto's would pick up their heads because people are doing what scott said, i'm starting to get a little nervous. maybe what he said is right we will see a brexit at a certain point, they may start to taper

and inflation may be very stubborn and not go away. >> first of all it's not fair to include crypto with the rest of the equity market but yes i understand it's very popular in the segment that people are enamored but is not an area i would gravitate to as they simply do not understand it. that said that the continues as those earlier folks talked about. it sounds clearly in the fed is basically trapped there between a rock and a hard place i'm not sure is powell is worried about his job or the economy or all of the above but clearly there in action, their benign position is music to the ears of the equity market when it comes to stocks you want to stay long and you use any kind of selloff as an

opportunity to buy something. i think the whole tapering thing is already well priced and effective on what we want to focus on in a period of tightening would be the financials in the insurance companies. these are sectors that would basically benefit from a tightening and a higher interest rate. i think to be concerned and throw the baby out with the bathwater because we think the fed is going to do something, i think it's premature because i'm not sure the fed knows what to do. liz: i think jay powell did the absolute right thing at the height of the pandemic, merger 2020, even before then when he came in with shock and start of the bond purchases. there is a very wise thing the person that got you into the crisis is not the person that is going to get you out.

i do think that becomes an issue and if he's trying to do this tap dancer high wire act of let me keep my job but also not gyrate the markets were doing the best that we can most important for the investor of the american people. i fear this will indwell. >> i think ultimately it will come down to how the credit markets react in the future right now everything is okay, we are being squeezed in higher prices how much can the consumer take and how much are they willing to pay for gas at the pump, how much are they willing to pay for food which is rising also. liz: the peanut butter that i like is $11 a jar, it's organic and it's annoying but $11 since when. >> that is crazy and it's really crushing disposable income. liz: we have to run, great stuff, we thank you very much, the dow was up 86 points, high

of the session, we did have a 89 earlier so were right about there. as teddy said, the place to go, financials, you want to look at those obviously the place to be in semi conductors. fox business alert what the mean stock crowd wall street take us away. avis budget group coming back tender earth at this hour, down 16% after more than doubling yesterday on a wild day of trading halts and short squeeze action j.p. morgan downgraded to underweight but raise the price targeted $225 from its previous 100-dollar price target. right now avis at $298. deutsche bank cut its rating to sell but on valuation concerns. another mean stock, bed bath and beyond surging after it announced it will finish a billion-dollar buyback ahead of schedule and launched a

collaboration with kroger's that is good for 16 and a quarter% higher, bank of america also same both pieces seem to be leading to a short squeeze in bed bath and beyond. let's get a quick check of gamestop, the original short squeeze to our friends, were looking at gamestop about 5% the retailer sitting on the top of read it wisdom at this hour. to the bottom of the s&p 500, the nasdaq videogame maker, the coleader stepping down and it has delayed the launch of two hot games over watched two diablo for as we look at op division blizzard is down 14% we should check classico, ea down three quarters of 8%. it is place he could down 25%. zillow on track for the biggest single day percentage drop since march of 2020 after the online

real estate platform set of plans to shut down the business that buys and sells home zillow offers it will reduce the workforce by 25%, that is big, they are cutting a quarter of their workforce simply because they are shutting down the one division because they did not timed it right. they bought the homes that were too expensive, they could not flip them because they could not get the construction workers because it is a labor shortage, zillow down, take an opportunity to scoop up 300 shares of zillow, she could look like a genius if you buy low may be a good hire, we shall see, house speaker nancy pelosi adding four weeks of paid family and medical leave to president biden social spending bill this comes one day after democrats suffered losses at the polls in an off year election, will the party strategy build back better from the bipartisan infrastructure

bill, is an infrastructure vote close, he enjoys is now from there. >> we are a little bit closer on the infrastructure bill in the social spending bill in the past few minutes. bill text is complete on the social spending bill, 2100 pages just came out, the social spending bill and the infrastructure bill could be on the floor as early as tomorrow. but family leave could face a problem with the bill goes to the senate. >> you have to go out there and show that you're willing to knock on doors for parents to make the call for parents, tell your friends and neighbors what's at stake. >> virginia shout like he did for barack obama. >> that's not what we were looking for we were hoping to

play a soundbite from joe manchin the democratic senator from west virginia talking about his opposition to include family leave in that bill. but the democratic senator was able to designate with voters on education. warner says the house should approve the infrastructure bill weeks ago that woody given a boost to terry mcauliffe. >> i am worried not just in virginia but across the country we have a shell that we can deliver in a pragmatic way that affects people's lives. >> the gop is daring democrats to pass their bills. >> joe biden a nancy pelosi did not get the message from what happened last night. there may be more of their members that will look in the mere and say i don't want to be the next terry mcauliffe. but if they keep voting for big government socialism they will go the same way as terry mcauliffe. >> democrats argue that the social spending bill is in fact popular and their bedding the

passage helps them find a course correction. but voters rejected big government can you just clarify, the democratic senator joe manchin is against four weeks of paid family leave in this country? >> is against what they're trying to do, to return to socialism, we always thought that bill went is passed in the house of representatives would be changed in the senate there is a placeholder in there right now on immigration policy and they would change that in senate we don't know what that would look like or if there's any immigration provision at jon kyrsten sinema, everything that they will put in the senate has to pass, they need all 50 votes in the senate plus the boa vice president harris to get this bill across the finish line. liz: chad pergram, up next

1 trillion-dollar countdown closer, the best bet for opposed said blowout trade do you want to hear them, stay tuned. closing bell ringing and ten and half minutes. the dow was up 123 points, we have had her experts and gurus telling you this whole hour because of what the fed announced, that means no interest-rate moves at all, stocks of the place to be in its reflected right now on your screen. ♪ the best things america makes are the things america makes out here. the history she writes in her clear blue skies. the legends she births on hometown fields. and the future she promises. when we made grand wagoneer, proudly assembled in america, we knew no object would ever rank with the best things in this country. but we believed we could make something worthy of their spirit. wealth is your first big investment.

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at vanguard, you're more than just an investor, you're an owner with access to financial advice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future for those you love. vanguard. become an owner. liz: the closing bell seven minutes away the taper will begin november 15 in the markets do not look spooked, this thing is very well telegraphed, on planet earth, this is what the fed did not want a surprise they laid down a bunch of pillows, velvet feeling nice s&p 500

slightly below it and there it is it is that session highs again of 29 points, let's bring in the countdown closer's, they had the post fed blowout that will factor portfolio with companies that stand to benefit most, joining us with 1 trillion in assets under management senior market strategist ryan paul dietrich in capital management ryan pain. mr. paul dietrich, what do you make of the fed's decision and where are the places that you put your clients money right now. >> they did not rock the vote, some other guests have been talking about that. it's the most telegraphed meeting we've seen in a while and they move on from that. you focus on the fundamentals, the earnings coming in stronger than expected, look at the services numbers way better than expected, things aren't perfect but overall the ten year yield is up today, what does that mean

to us at lpl research, we like the value, the industrials, financials, look at small caps r consolidating for the last six or seven months, this is the program growth market that we are signaling and we know the third-quarter data was bad, gdp data was bad but market is telling us better times are ahead and we stick with the cyclical names. liz: september faculty orders, let's give our viewers granularity, 82% of the essence p5 hundred companies which have reported the earnings have be on earnings-per-share 77% b on revenue. ryan pain all dig down to actual names let's go to a macro picture right now >> no, i think i like the you

mentioned, dennis is providing. i love the pillows. for the record, ryan is right here, the cyclical trade is fantastic. i think the big issue on wall street right now, wall street strategists have not been that positive. they have not embraced the fact that the economy is recovering. it slowed down a little bit this last quarter because of the delta variant covid virus, the reality it doesn't get better than this. earnings are fantastic. companies say we have a lot of inflation. we have wage inflation. we have supply chains. they're a mess. don't worry we'll raise prices on you, mr. consumer, you mrs. consumer, not a problem. the consumer is very price resilient. this is magical combination. we're in kind of a goldilocks situation. the money will pour into the market here. you will not get a correction like a lot of wall street strategists have said. you have to be bullish, liz. liz: you like financials, ryan.

it is now at 417. we seeing profit-taking here if what is going on? >> could be. we're looking at individual names. economy is strong. mention the consumer. maybe they have to pay a little more. there is $3.7 trillion in savings in money market accounts, right? the consumer has some cushion there should there be rocky roads ahead. if yields keep going higher. inflation expectations keep creeping up like we expect we still think the banks, financials, small caps, those are the areas we want to be positioned in. we still like them here. liz: jay powell talked specifically about transitory inflation, transitory meaning temporary. all the past six months oh, this inflation, these price hikes will go away. he changed that sort of, shades of gray in the lexicon. here is what he said about the word transitory. then ryan payne, i want to know what your pick is. let's listen.

>> carry as sense of short-lived and that, there is a time component measured in months let's say. really for us what transitory has meant if something is transitory it will not leave behind a permanently or very persistently higher inflation. liz: that he kind of changed the paradigm for me. i thought transitory meant it is here and it is gone. ryan payne, what is your pick then? because at the moment we're starting to see semiconductors they certainly spiked today. they had a big move today. is there a related stock or area that you like? >> i like the old school oil trailed here because if you look at peak oil demand it is not for another decade. inflationary pressure. what does transitory mean? we talking about years here, jay powell? what is going on? i think it will last a lot longer and he is alluding to that. i like any trade sensitive to the reopening of the global economy. oil is the most sensitive.

even though we're at $80 a barrel today it could go a lot higher. we're putting a lot of investment in production. why i likes exxon specifically, they are the most on the, they are cheap, dirt cheap on energy stocks. it's a great place to be to benefit from the reopening trade. liz: mr. dietrich, russell 2000, the small caps you just referenced hitting an all-time high right this second. do you think that trade continues? it has a long vapor trail? >> we do, liz. they're making new highs today. they did yesterday. new highs hundreds march. everyone think this, small caps went sideways a long time. starting to lead. reminds me of fourth quarter last year when small caps did awesome. we think that could play out this year in 2021 with small cap leadership late in the year. liz: ryan dietrich, ryan payne, great to have you both. folks, can we do fireworks and

confetti at the same time? we have records, folks, for the dow, the s&p, the nasdaq, the russell. do we have one, brad, for the transports? i do believe -- [closing bell rings] liz: no record for the transports. we want to thank you all for staying with us. it has finally happened. the tapering shall begin november 15th. we know, we'll be there right with you every step of the way. ♪. larry: hello, everyone, welcome to "kudlow," i'm larry kudlow. so, make no mistake, folks, yesterday was a sea change election. a tetonic shift in the political landscape. it's a thunderclap warning to the progressive far left wokism now previous lent in washington, d.c., and for the gop i think it is a clear path to a successful political future that opened up last night. it is a big tent coalition. we have