hard seltzer thing with the big sales boost and slower growth. in the stock is way too expensive for me. jack: flavored whiskey is something to avoid. thank you very much. all great ideas. to read more checkout bearings.com don't forget to follow us on twitter at barron's online. that is all for us i hope you had a great thanksgiving, we will see you next week. >> from the fox studio in new york city, this is "maria bartiromo's wall street". >> happy thanksgiving everyone welcome to the program that analyzes the week that was in helps position you for the week ahead. i am maria bartiromo. americans facing surging crisis with groceries and gasoline for the holiday season. supply chain disruption continue to rock markets. david bahnsen will join me how inflation is taking a tollhe on americans in the labor shortage

and where you should be investing today. covid-19 changing traditional holiday shopping, mastercard, senior advisor will tell me how it's affecting retailers and what to expect. the biggest shopping day of the year has arrived. we will tell you how this black friday compares to past shopping seasons. let's take a look back at the newsmakers on "mornings with maria" in this week's edition of this week's talkers. >> chinese tennis star peng shuai reemerges of the weekend. >> the olympic committee the ioc basically making itself part of chinese propaganda holding this phone call releasing still shots and video saying that she is fine and she would like a privacy. maria: in terms of joe manchin, will he hold j the line. >> and praying to god that there's more people like joe manchin and the senator from arizona. nc you what we need to

show statesmanship now and we need to show leadership to pass the reconciliation bill. it is irresponsible we are going to see very serious inflation in america. the person that is punished as a little guy. maria: he said the communist party is celebrating the 100 year, so is j.p. morgan. i make a bet that will last longer, he said that in an hour later or couple of hours after was widely recorded he walks back the comments he says he regrets it. >> look at what message it sends to our markets in the free world if somebody like jamie dimon is backing down to the cpp, we know what they're doing to american companies, that's why many companies like fortnite, appleke are leaving china. maria: let's take a look at where markets ended, holiday short week coming off a lower than expected gdp numbers.

poor jobless claims and battling the big threat of rising inflation. joining me the boxing group founder andnd managing partner david bahnsen, he is also the author of the book, 2050 economic truths. thank you for joining us this weekend. >> thank you for having me. maria: i view thanksgiving as the kickoff to year end as well as a look into 2022. how are you expecting this market to do toward year end. we have the s&p 50000 up 25% 20, can itn continue? >> it is interesting, we view it the same way that thanksgiving starts the process of viewing year-end planning and your perspective going into the new year and in the new year investors have to expect lower returns next year than we've had these last couple of years. a big reason for that is valuations. the starting point, you have a great recovery this year and

stuff that was highly distressed. our two largest sector is energy in s financials and they were te two top-performing sectors so far this year. a lot of the recovery trade bounce back from the covid moment and played out but going into 2022, the one thing iin dot think people can count on is technology to continue leading the way. we've seen a lot of the tech names, the work from home type names have gotten creamed from their eyes and saying still seems to be the recipient i'm skeptical that that continues next year. maria: especially because we have headwinds in terms of higherer interest rate and pluse don't know who is going to be the overseer of banks which is an incredibly important position with the services sector we know ayjay powell was reappointed ths week and lael brainard will be the vice chairman of the federal

reserve. how do those changes affect putting money to work as we do expect rates to move higher, the second half of the year, 2022. >> i always like having some contrary opinions but i think of a little different than much of the street on this that is worried about the fed taking a bit more hawkish position. i think you should expect more hawkish rhetoric. they kind of have to say some of that. when it comes to action i don'tt believe it. i don't believe the fedn will al of a sudden become the tightness of monetary policy that they were in 2017 and 2018. the way the corporate credit market revolted against that has made powell very hesitant to go there. h their society and governmental spending, corporate spending, housing market and you mention the stock market sectors. the very dependent on the very low interest rates that feed

high valuation. i don't think the fed is going to move off of that. what will happen valuations cannot keep expanding so profits grow, margins continue to be impressive but at some point i think you will see out-of-favor sectors, surprise people like energy did this year, consumer staples is one that we have our theyes on. maria: what about energy in thei year ahead now that president biden has released 50 million barrels of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, president trump bought all the oil when oil was $31 a barrel, filling up the reserve but it hasn't had much of an impact on the price since biden made the move. >> markets are incredibly smart and efficient they know the move was a joke, it was a token in a headline in a press release but it was not substantive to the supply challenges we face with oil and gas in our country.

the fact of the matter the strategic reserves are for real emergencies and 70-dollar oil is not a real emergency. it was a politically driven thing that has no impact on supply demand dynamics. the fact of the matter is energy was the top-performing sector in the first chair of the biden administration and president trump was quite friendly to the energy sector and it was the worst performing sector inru his administration. markets have a funny way of being disconnected from politics at times. maria: is a great point what you want to do if you own energy at this point, oil stocks as well. >> some of the producersrs have gotten p pretty stretched they have great runs and we like a lot of those names but our focus and we talk about this in the past, we like the midstream sector whether transporting the oil and gas you mention when president trump bought oil at

$30 and you recall we have no place to restore oil during the second third quarter of the covid moment. these companies were able to provide storage and transportation. right now we have a huge opportunity to be exporting liquefied natural gas and more safely environmentally safely moving oil and gas within our country. these are high-yield sectors that improve their financials so we like theo midstream part of oil and gas, those that are transporting. maria: what is your take on the macro story. we had pretty good blowups and retail this week, nordstrom losing a third of its value, the gap losing a quarter of itsnd value because of weaker than expected quarterly numbers. does this give you any indication of this body retail backdrop, consumers have a lot of money to spend after pent-up demand during the pandemic but wages are being cut into with

inflation. >> i don't think nordstrom's and gap number was systemic we see a strong appetite and that's a trend that we never bet against. i am never in my adult life seen an american consumer unwilling to spend as long ass they're able. consumer spending is more about credit then is appetite. people love to buy things in our country. gap nordstrom have idiosyncratic problems. other retailers have done quite well. it had more to do with the story on their own balance sheet and gap is more levered i'm not an investor in the consumer discretionary space. i don't think i'm good at guessing what teenage girls are going to buy next quarter but the fact of the matter is, financially a lot of the stories have a lot of debt and that speaks to whatever themes it's a good time to look to last levered areas. we think the leverage is played

out. maria: it's great to see you, thank you so much. >> happy thanksgiving. maria: have a great rest of your thanksgiving weekend. david bahnsen joining us there, holiday spending in full swing despite supply chain shortages and the setbacks. what can retailers expect this holiday season will talk with mastercard steve sadove when we come back. back in a moment. i mean, take a chestnut, it doesn't just say “oh, beg pardon, sir, but is now a good time for a jolly bit of window cracking?” i mean, if they did, you wouldn't need a geico claims team that's available 24/7. but, near as i can tell, chestnuts don't talk. or maybe they're just really quiet. geico. your claims team is here for you, 24/7. well, got things to do mr. chestnut, so... [gaming sounds]

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maria: welcome back as sellers market this holiday season as rising inflation and eager consumers up the demand for goods amid a supply chain crisis with major shortages, how will retailers fair the season compared to last. senior advisor at mastercard, former saks ceo steve sadove. it is great to see you again, thank you very much for joining me. give us your senses of the

retail climate this year. >> i think we have a very strong retail environment for the holiday season. the consumer as you said hasea money in their pockets, their shopping in the retailers are in the sellers position because there's a lack of inventory byou and large and the supply chain problem, discounts are but were in margins are ups if you lookig for the third quarter earnings. i'm looking at a mastercard forecast of a 7.5% growth in the holiday season, 10% during the thanksgiving week, a very strong black friday. it's a good season for retails. maria: what about the inflation component, do you price hikes, a number of items from food to apparel and beyond, certainly oil and gas up 50% year-over-year, is that going to cut into any of these plans? >> i think that factored into the numbers if you look at the holiday inc. giving week

forecast encompassed within that is the accommodation of the supply chain cost increase which reflected in pricing and a lower percentage of discounting. i'm guessing this is not a mastercard forecast i'm guessing you're in 5 - 10 percentage points less discount this season than last year. that would reflect higher prices as well. some component of the growthpo s pricing. maria: let's talk categories, where you see the most interest in terms of category this holiday season. what are consumers willing to pay up for? >> were in a situation during the pandemic the growth was clearly in the at home hardware home, home improvement, grocery, people were buying things and staying home if they were buying apparel it was leisure or sweatpants. now a post pandemic environment, where getting out is what people want to do.

there buying apparel, buying luxury, buying jewelry for themselves or for gifting. all the getting out and getting more back to normal are the categories that are doing well. what are interest in the categories were doing well during the pandemic let's take the home categories continuing to do well. it's either and as opposed to either or. if you look at the numbers coming out of the home depot and lows as an example show you thag you're getting strength in those categories. i'm seeing a big uptick in apparel business. you're starting to see the travel come back as you open up the international tourism. those numbers are starting to pop, restaurants are killing and try to get a restaurant reservation in new york, 20 - 30% growth in the restaurant space. maria: i noticed that the other night in new york city. the city is packed once again. what about electronics every year, we talk about the digital

in the retail benefiting gaming as well as the new devices. how much interest is that there or are we seeing supply chain disruptions cut into businesssr there? >> i think it's a combinationonf both if you look at the aggregate trends there very strong we look atoo electronics rowing in the 25 - 30% growth during the thanksgiving week. very strong about electronics but there being hit by supply chain and availability issues. you're also getting timing .issues going on because everybody is aware of the supply chain, there was a pull forward people buying the hot items earlier. some of this is going to translate into gift card purchases because you can't get the item now you'll see it play out in the early part of the first quarter. overall the electronic category continues to hold up well. maria: fascinating stuff. are there any bargains today?

>> a consumer can always find a bargain of some kind. you will see some of the specials for black friday of the world and for theld holidays. it's a much more plan promotional environment. retail is always built around attracting customers with somewhat of a discount, 20% off the any department store might be full price selling. you'll see a lot of that you may see some hot promotions but they're knocking to be anywhere near as much as you seen in the past this is really about using a little bit of a promotion to get people into the store. what is really interesting, people want to go into the store right now. remember duringg the pandemic digital grew by 50% went from 12% to 18%. now we see people want to be into the store. do not seen as much as the deep discounts because consumer are back.d stores i

everyone said the store is dead now are seen 80% plus of congress holding down in the store. maria: really interesting, what about workers 4.4 million people dropped out of the workforce in september. these are incredible numbers as people change their approach to work. you retailers have their jobs, t do they have the people to fill those jobs? >> the jobs are certainly there, the issue is if you can fill them. one of my concerns, as you have somebody people coming back into the stores, they want to have an experience. the question is whether or not the stores will get enough labor in the right kind of labor to help the consumer give them the experience that is going to get them to want to keep coming back. labor and availability in providing the a environment that labor wants to stay is critical for retail. you see the wages going up across the board with the retailers. are the retailers created a

culture that is going to get the people to want the employees to stay in the store inward for ethose companies. that is critical. treating the employees right in a tight labor market is so critical in this period of time because the consumers are going to come back or not come back based upon what experience they had in the store and product and labor in terms of how they're treated i is critical. maria: that's a great point. great to talk with you. thank you for joining me. maria: happy thanksgiving and have a wonderful rest of your weekend. steve sadove joining us, the largest shopping day of the year turns into a a month-long affair with early deals rolled out and stores online. how does this use black friday compared to last year end past f black fridays. we will take a look next. ♪

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smart bed. plus, 0% interest for 60 months. ends cyber monday be when we just heard from mastercard about the expectations for the thanksgiving weekend weekend. staying optimistic about holiday spending let's go to kelli o'grady in los angeles today in the center of the black friday shopping spree with a look at what's going on. >> 108 million shoppers are expected this black friday, 7 million in person even though some folks have been here since 8:00 p.m. last night they are necessarily finding the discounts i expected. retailers don't offer the big sales because you've got customer clamoring for thehe h product. i want to give you a taste of what you might see this weekend, we have buy one get 150% off, that is too good to be true, you

have to get the second one. it works out to 25% off when you buy both of those and when you dig through all the chaos you see some of the big brands like nike and north face are included in the sales because you have their products in the harbor or it hasn't been produced yet. >> i don't want to be broke i'm trying to find the good deals before cyber monday. >> i'm happy to be out i'm spending my money that i probably shouldn't spend. >> finding good deals. >> they have my sizes. >> there's been a lot of focus on sales with eight and a half e projected versus 2020. most of the increase is due to inflation. have to spend more because things are costing more. big retailers like walmart and target are able to charter to get allg the product out of the harbor but they're offering big discounts in price matching to real the consumers and.

let's take a hit on margin but 60% citing getting a deal is why they choose retailers this year they may be able to beat out the competition without strategy. maria: thank you so much, don't go anywhere more wall street right after this. ♪ this. ♪ ♪♪ care.

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maria: welcome maria: welcome back another big show in the works for next weekend tune into wall street every friday night at 8:00 p.m. eastern right heree on fox business. start smart every weekday from h

"mornings with maria" every weekday on fox business 6 - 9:0e you will start your day with us every weekday. that will do it for us e this weekend. thank you for being with me, i hope you enjoyed a wonderful thanksgiving with your family and continue to celebrate with friends and family throughout the weekend. i will see you again next time. have a great weekend everybody. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪. gerry: this week on the wall street journal at large, more disorder in america. by late crime is rising in many major cities run by democrats as progressive wage war on the rule of law itself. plus kovic cases are on the rise again and in europe lockdowns are back despite the rollout of vaccines. if the u.s. headed for