something. >> you're only saying that because you secretly desire her. she told us anyone who criticizes. so just fess up to thank you very much great conversation. we'll be back with more interest in the lawsuit journal at large for the meantime have a great week than welcome to barron's roundtable where we get behind the headlines and prepare you for the week ahead. former fda commissioner with the latest on omicron, and other emerging fairies and whether the biden administration to change its covid strategy and latest smart investments you can make now to protect against inflation. we begin with what we think are

the most important things investors are to think about right now. december jobs numbers mr. economist estimates but there's more behind the headlines. the fed may start raising rates as soon as march and what it means for how you invest it was a wild week for the auto industry, socks posting huge moves as companies announce plans for electric vehicles. my colleagues ben, carl and jack, thank you and i have talked how the fed has done a good job telegraphing it intentions but suddenly they said they spooked investors this week, a surprise the market didn't take well. >> that's right and was released from its december meeting and markets look forward, it's a few time i remember reacting to something that both, they realized the fed will tighten a lot faster than they thought. they were ready for something but they are reducing balance sheet and probably going to be at least three rate hikes starting march and it was a lot more than the market was ready

for it and we saw that especially in the high price sacrament nasdaq fell about four and a half this past week. >> friday mornings job numbers were well below expectations, sometimes that calms investors and they think the fed won't be so hawkish but the market ignore that number. >> they did. it went up after the report and because unemployment rate dropped 4%, it's getting close to where it was before covid, hard to argue job market isn't tight. >> the survey showed 62000 jobs. month that was pretty strong so what are you looking for next week? >> consumer price index wednesday we are looking to see what the inflation number is, supposed to be 7% or so, at this time i doubted.

>> carlton, let's take a longer view on that same information, we are looking at a year where we will see two or three or more fed hikes, what does it mean for the market? >> the market get skittish around rate hikes even when telegraphed as long as they are predictable behaving a little better, it's just said not moving too quickly and having surprises, we had an interview at that time. >> i think it's a whole secret here to do this gradually, over the like growing in a car at a high rate of speed, don't slam on the brakes because the economy actra. >> see the full interview, go to barron's.com/video. carlton, the scripture says when rates go up suddenly tech stocks don't do well, cyclicals do well in financials do well in the market is falling following that script. >> it goes back to the honeywell ceos points, as long as this

doesn't happen too quickly, tech looks less attractive with things like bitcoin but they tend to do much better because they earn more as long as it doesn't happen so quickly loan growth slows. >> small banks have done very well recently. jack, let's switch to cars, wild week for auto stocks, it looks like cs electronic show is the new detroit auto show, tell us what's happening. >> i know you like the action, i know you're thinking about rebalancing 60 -- 40 split, i want you to consider our stocks because that's where the action really is, look at the parade of double digit percentage moves this past week, tesla 13% move after -- higher-than-expected delivery and it got back back on the rising interest rate.

reporter: rose 11% effort it would increase production of electric f1 50s. ford has been a huge winner for the rudy tutu, making a call on that stock in november and general motors, 11% over two days leading up to des unveiling its electric pickups, they gained some back, buyers will have to wait until 2023 but bottom line, the u.s. has been slower than europe and china to adopt electric vehicles. either we don't like them or they don't make them in the kinds of vehicles americans like to buy and i think that might be the case. pickup trucks and here comes electric pickup truck so we will see what happens. we could be headed for a big boom and broader car demand in the u.s. within supply constrained during the pandemic,

we are barely 15 million, a bit of an increase this year but they think we could see a jump to 18 million units by next year so there's a lot up for grabs and that's why the stocks are moving around. >> that is a big number, that would be the highest many years, one question real quick, a sony car was unveiled, when without becoming? >> that will be never. you will see a prototype, i don't think you'll ever see mass-produced sony vehicle, making cars his heart, tesla has been doing it for decades. they do well with battery and software but behind in the finishing of the uniform gap where the doors meet so they are getting better but making cars is hard and i don't think sony will do it. >> thanks very much, coming up, the latest science on how long the omicron search can last since what you need to know about the new variant

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easy tools on the chase mobile app. simplicity feels good. chase. make more of what's yours. u.s. covid cases are now topping 600,000 a day as we enter the third year of the pandemic, debate over vaccine regulations test shortages and highly contagious nature of omicron caused widespread confusion. here to sort out, former fda commissioner and author of uncontrolled spread, glycolic, how we can defeat the next pandemic, doctor scott, thank you for coming on, we really appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. >> it seems like everyone knows somebody or a lot of people who have covid right now, a rough holiday reason, when does this peak and when do we get to at least pre-omicron levels?

>> it's probably peeking right now and parts of the country, the mid atlantic, places like maryland and washington d.c., florida, delaware looks like it is peeking as well some parts of the country affected early, infections are probably peeking right now and more noticeably in the curve into the week. other parts of the country where omicron hasn't become as prevalent, parts of the midwest, plain states, they still have a couple of weeks to go. the national peak is projected to be about mid january but in the parts of the country where it was the first entry, new york region and florida, it probably peaked already. >> we are hearing about some new variant i hq in france, does that pose a threat? more broadly, as it mutates, is there risk of more deadly variance or doesn't get more transmissible and less deadly?

>> the mutations will be unpredictable, omicron was unpredictable mutation, we thought delta was so contagious further mutations would occur within the delta lineage, delta what develop qualities with partial immune escape but the backbone of future variant would be, in terms of the mutation was from a traveler in africa, it's not clear it has breakout potential, mutations that are concerning because they typically they correlate with the virus to evade our immunity but it's not clear it's spreading, what i will say is enclosing as we get better and better surveillance and sequencing, who will discover more of these theories, theories that burn out and not understand why some burnout and some continue to spread. >> the moderna ceo just said he thinks a fourth booster shot will be necessary, do you agree? >> another company that's developed in the market on the

vaccine, i do think this for the foreseeable future will be an annual vaccine, i long believe that, the immunity is strong but not durable in perpetuity, it doesn't decline over time, we've seen that and as long as prevalence remains reasonably high and continues to circulate particularly in the winter, we will want to get re- inoculated in the fall heading into the winter for peak protection for those months. i do believe this is the year we end the pandemic get out of the pandemic we have continuous infection and it settles into an endemic pattern which a seasonable virus, a circulate in the winter typically, i think on the back end of this should be low in the spring and summer and we have to contend with this as we get into late fall and winter and you will probably want to be vaccinated before that to clearly if your high-risk of about outcome from the virus. >> my question for you is, what is the best protocol for isolation and emerging from isolation? more generally, what is the cdc

need to change the recommendations are clearly understandable and smart? >> the epidemic isn't driven by people tested and diagnosed five days and reenter circulation on day six or seven and might be still contagious, it's being driven by people who never get diagnosed because they might be mildly symptomatic or a some dramatic and continuing the spread of the infection because they don't know they have it. we are probably turning over a small fraction of the actual infections so to put a burden on the people who choose to get diagnosed and isolate is probably impractical especially given how much infection is there so i think the guidance probably was correct, the way the agency articulated was wrong, it's a broader problem with cdc, they don't put out guidance that's practical or articulate in a clear way too short or shouldn't get tested and what we need to do to get tests available to people.

one thing you mentioned was shelflife which most people don't understand. >> if you look at the test you have at home right now whether, they probably expired in the next six months, the longest on a newly acquired test i've seen is ten or 11 months, the only test i've seen with long expiration dates is a two year expiration date and the reason they probably don't have long date isn't because of the agents in the test kit truly expiring after six months or nine months because the manufacturers stick to the market quickly and long-term stability test to demonstrate they sit on the shelf for a longer period of time and it's partly what created the shortages and consumers as well, consumers want to buy the test and put them away for you can't do that if the expiration date is three months out. >> a series of articles in medical journals call for a new normal approach by the biden administration which

recommendations mandating vaccinations for schoolchildren, the idea of vaccines for specific variance, and others, what was your take away from those reports? anything we should do right away? >> a wait and see approach to see what we implement at a societal level to grapple with it in the long run, the things we should be pushing on his product availability, better access in a drug to treat the infection in a number on the market and development, better access to diagnostic tests care test so consumers can get access to the testing and making sure vaccines are available and normalizing descriptions, the government is in charge of disturbing products and it makes it harder for positions to make decisions based on individual assessment and risk for individual patients, we need to normalize distribution for doctors to freely prescribe, you can get them at your pharmacy and make them accessible to consumers. >> thank you so much for your

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for just $30 per line per month when you get four lines or mix and match data options. available now for comcast business internet customers with no line-activation fees or term contract required. see if you can save by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities. with inflation running hot, investors are looking for ways to protect their portfolio. barron's cover story explores five commodities are a good answer after a decades long commodity prices are rising which is both a result and because of inflation. beverly goodman has the details. great to see you again, thanks for coming on the show. i didn't realize until i looked this week how brutal commodities had been, oil was even higher in 2008 then now my oddities are below 2000 levels but recently there is a search, can you

explain how it's connected to inflation? >> sure, 27% rise in commodity index, the best in decades and something we prepare for a year ago but that was transitory inflation. inflation is going to stick around, pandemic for all sorts of things a shortage of supply and supply chain issues so all of this is welfare commodities basically creating all of this to buy and bill. it lockstep which is why their heads on inflation if their stocks are doing well. >> so the most visible sign inflation because it's right next to the road are gasoline prices but as we move toward renewables, that means less demand, any chance the prices will come down? >> in the long term, yes but i wouldn't plan that cross country drive just yet.

we have something about fuel shortage which will keep energy prices high. commodity prices have been low decades and big energy companies have under invested and instead of putting their profits into their businesses, they've used it for buybacks and dividends so what is more, even though the move toward greener energy is truly inexorable, it will take decades for countries and companies to meet the targets they've set in transition will be bumpy. blackouts this year because they didn't have enough windy days last year so there are pressures that are still causing us to use fossil fuel even as the world is moving away from that but the longer-term trend turns greener energy is the future which bodes well for commodities like lithium or cobalt ultimately it will shift investors as well. >> high oil prices are also raising cost of farming, is that

showing up and other agricultural commodities? >> it is but not across the board. you're right about corn, fossil fuels are used to create fertilizer and power tractors and farm equipment so the more that cost, the last farmers produce or the mark they charge for healed so showing up in corn but other forces are at work like soybean prices might authorize china responsible for 60% of soybean in the chinese economy is slowing down so the prices may not rise as quickly since demand is dropping. >> i'm curious, a lot of time investors get exposure to commodities through index funds but that may not be appropriate, can you explain why? >> the two big commodity indexes, first of all, they are pretty different from one another but both also a lot more heavily weighted toward energy, fossil fuel than we think investors should be focused on right now. we think management is definitely the way to go take better advantage of these

trends. >> brutally trashing commodity index, i can't believe it, shots fired. how do right and best? is there an active management fund i should buy? >> we especially like commodity real return strategy funds, pcr ax and the columbia commodity strategy funds, both funds are actively managed, solid track records and managers attuned to the various trends and forces often conflicting in various commodities. >> thank you very much, that's a good-looking chart for investors who want to catch the moment. up next, roundtable members will get the mm. [ clicks tongue ] i don't know. i think they look good, man. mm, smooth.

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♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

some investigative financial reporting is discovered a slight discrepancy between two predictions for tesla. one i thought the stock hit $1400, the other one set may be $67? >> he said is concerned because he thinks the target might be a little too high. it's at a decimal and the stock is over $1000 a share, it's up 13 100%, not my forecast, he says tesla will be able to ramp up production and won't expend success to other adjacent industries. the analyst who thousand 1400, you think tesla is redefining the amount of profits to be extracted from cars in their lifetime tesla will do well in solar power and battery, i think it's a whitest gap i've seen

between 1400 -- 57. i think about pitching a show to netflix, to analysts with wildly different tastes on tesla have to share an apartment for some reason, i'm considering them for the role, i'm still working out the details. [laughter] >> that sounds like an opportunity for options traders but give a little more sober actionable idea. >> i don't know how sober this is but i'm talking about tesla of army and that is dear. the reason we say that is it's become this technology leader in the agricultural space recently announcing fully self driving tractor at ces this weekend, analysts think the stock could go up by about 25% this year end previous segment we talked about what's going on with agricultural prices which would be well for a company like dear. >> that looks a little different from my grandmother's tractor. what is your idea? >> looking at pharmaceuticals with a tough year in 2021,

concerns about possible competing things, socks are looking interesting again. >> they also moved the market, thank you very much. read more, check out this week's edition of parents.com. don't forget to follow us on tw♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪♪ ♪ ♪ this is the maria bartiromo's wall street. >> welcome to the program analyzes the week that was it helps position for the week ahead. i am jackie deangelis and for maria bartiromo. >> i think it's a historic day for economic recovery. today's national unemployment rate fell below 4% 3.9% the sharpest one-year drop in unemployment in the united states history.