>> "barrons roundtable" sponsored by invesco q? . >> investment firm's ceo on how to protect your portfolio against inflation and what is next for crypto and todd alston

of baron's prestigious roundtable reveals the stock picks for 2022 but we begin with the most important things investors ought to be thinking about. inflation is running hot but the market these indications it may cool. investors are worried about earnings. as the fed is poised to raise rates what do bank report say about the economy and airline stocks on the rise despite the omicron surge and flight cancellations. is that a polish signal? for years big macro forces, rather than fundamentals, more focus on the fed and the weekend with market focused on earnings.

>> for rate hikes this year and more. when we keep down to it the nasdaq holding its own and the dow finished down more because earnings came out from big banks like jpmorgan, rallies coming into this week and the numbers weren't there and they fell. >> we see a weaker than expected retail number. this is demand driven inflation. should we be happy? >> a lot of reasons for this. it could be people did all their shopping in october and november like we told them to do and didn't see shopping left to do and there could be other things because the number to be

spent but it could also mean the quarter fizzled out and not as good as investors are hoping, not that they will miss their numbers, most beat their numbers, few missed them and could be worried the numbers investors are expecting are not going to be there. kim jung un connell: 0 method geopolitical problems like ukraine spiking the market next week. let's stick with earnings and talk about banks. it was a mixed bag. >> even looking at stock reaction i can't remember when i saw such wide discrepancy in performance was what we are seeing now is we knew this was not going to be at those elevated levels we saw for much of the pandemic. jpmorgan saw a huge drop in trading for the fourth quarter in 2021. wells fargo a big winner in his

earnings cycle. shares were up 3% in friday's training, one of the few banks to perform well in the trading and that is because investors are trying to see a sense of the turnaround coming. a process improved because of regulatory issues. but huge indication the bank is poised to do well going forward. jack: goldman and morgan stanley, what are you looking for? carlton:goldman and morgan stanley are looking at trading revenue and the backlog but most excited to see bank of america. of the big banks they are in best position for rising rate environment and jamie dimon could see 7 rate hikes. don't know if that will happen. it would be huge.

jack: i need you to explain to me the omicron variant is raging through the economy. what stocks are going up? travel stocks? airlines? cruises? i would think the opposite. jack: i have two theories. you can see this looking at us global jet etf off to a strong start and the s&p 500 is not. the omicron burnout 3, jpmorgan strategists expect omicron's lower severity and high transmissibility crowd out more severe variants that lead to broad natural immunity. and airlines might get busier starting as soon as a month or two from now. the rotation to the value and a lot of false starts in the last

decade and growth outperform value by 100 percentage points. rpc and its counterpart, pure growth, the value is off to a stronger start. that is what we would expect of higher rates were coming because near 0 rates, the valuation map for growth stock. the valuation discrepancy is extraordinarily wide and they will produce faster earnings growth because they are bouncing back from difficult conditions. for that value tree to continue we have been having a reasonably strong economy or inflation fizzles, the value rotation fizzles but the s&p 500 has tracked the growth

shortly, it isn't really a growth fund. they are dominated by the same economies. jack: investors should keep in mind the gdp growth we've seen recently up 6%, 7%, when growth is hard to find, growth stocks are up in value, thanks for that. coming up some more investments you can make to protect against you can make to protect against inflation. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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in less than 5 minutes... ...so you can stay... one step ahead. jack: inflation at a 4-year high infect everything from used cars to yogurt shakes. you make moves to protect your portfolio. joining me is jan van eick.

one of these days you will be back. jan: good to see you. jack: your funds look position for an inflationary environment, commodities funds, your stock fund, big on gold and lost a crypto fund. give us your outlook for inflation. what will make you say it is more than transitory? jan: looks like a multi-year trend. we had the biggest stimulus and world war ii. the economy is like a car unless you go 200 miles an hour. the economy of the world is hot and that is putting pressure on inflation. the other thing, the other narrative that is misleading is we have a lot of technology these days that will bring deflation back quickly.

that misunderstands the last 20 years. we have deflation because of the tremendous supply shot from china. hundreds of millions of workers coming into the global workforce, attractively priced goods and services. that is over. this inflation trend the last. my eyes are on the second half of the year and wages. wages is what matters with inflation psychology for that to persist. jack: let me ask about commodities because you mentioned lumber. it is a 10 year been market. if you are investor in commodities recently that turned around. you think commodities might be a decent place right now. jan: commodities are simple business. prices go up, there's been an

oversupply, commodity producers in the bear market. we have a 10 year bear market. the world economy continues to grow. there is a lot of demand for commodities. i will point out especially was we like is what we call green metals which is during energy transition and the push for electric vehicles. a lot of demand for minerals captured in green metals etf. jack: let's move to your recent launch, bitcoin etf investing in bitcoin futures. i am sure we have a lot of

crypto skeptics watching this show. what is your response when they say this is just another beanie baby that is going away. jan: let's talk about crypto skepticism broadly. the fact i love to cite is the amount of economic value transacted on the ethereum block chain that exceeded $3.5 trillion us. this is a technology that is really being used by financial applications and consumer products like nfts. you probably used ethereum. i would like to see reality is people are using this database technology. the question is what is it worth, like a lot of growth investments at the end of last year, crypto prices were extremely extended, but there is an underlying development

going on and the other point i would make is over $40 billion of venture capital money used in early-stage crypto funds, that one will work, hiring developers and developing applications. may be some aren't going to be used but some of them will so there is real stuff being building crypto. jack: you put a price on bitcoin down the road. jan: people get lost in the day today. i always said bitcoin needs to be in the portfolio alongside gold. the case is if gold is $10 trillion in overall value bitcoin will get to $5 trillion. if so that the price of 250,000. it is up 5 times from here. that is a reason it should be in the portfolio.

jack: perhaps it is not the reason but bitcoin futures rather than bitcoin, do you think that will change? jan: not in the near future. they are holding approval of bitcoin physical etf hostage for legislative reforms that they want. jack: thank you for being on the show. coming up, the outlook for wall street in 2022 voiceover: riders. wanderers on the road of life. the journey is why they ride. when the road is all you need, there is no destination. uh, i-i'm actually just going to get an iced coffee. well, she may have a destination this one time, but usually --

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jack: this week "barrons roundtable" hosted the roundtable of influential

investors and strategist to ask for the state of the markets of the economy and investment picks for the year ahead. joining us now one of the members of a group, cio todd alston. thanks for coming on. todd:great to be on the show. jack: let's start with the macro, your big picture view of the markets in 2022. what do you see first of all? todd:it is all about inflation but we are long-term investors. if you look out 12 months from now it will be a mirror image. it is clearly high inflation high growth but a year from now we are having the same conversation, lower growth, lower inflation environment. we think the fed will be very hawkish raising rates four times. at the same time we are going to roll off distortions, $9 trillion central balance

sheet growth. the fiscal measures, out of the pandemic, what does that mean, slower gdp growth, on the downside. 2% or 3% gdp growth, not 4% but what does that mean wrapping it up in the markets. it will be a volatile year for the markets and volatility in precarious moments. earnings growth looks good at 8% to 15%. at the same time a lot of innovation in the s&p 500 and very importantly as inflation comes off to slower growth, refilling supply chains, it is all about the long end of the curve that value stock and

intrinsic value, the yield curve will plan into a short-term retired, long-term at the 10 year sticking towards 2%. of your intrinsic value investor earnings growth is a good environment to make money. we think the stock market is up on the year. jack: the in of native companies look likes good long-term investments. stuart: todd: we think it is full of innovation. don't get too obsessed with inflation but think about companies are investing in the waves that compute 5g semiconductors, software, precision agriculture, new payment systems. attentive innovation at reasonable prices. companies you can buy for 3, 5, 10 years hold them and compound well even though things are volatile for sure.

carleton: you are looking at mastercard and pfizer. what is the opportunity you see with them? todd: incredible open-loop network, 2.9 billion cards, 80 million merchants and a great way to play the reopening of the economy, cross-border travel and their boat is as wide as it has ever been in open payments. if you want to scale a business you would use mastercard or visa to grow your company. we have great participation, 25% earnings growth the next three years, great place to invest. with inflation you benefit from that higher ticket, higher merchandise. it is a value play trading at 17, 18 times earnings. they are involved a lot of behind the scenes payment rails and credit card issuance. very essential and we think they can grow earnings at its

and% rate, 17 times earnings is a complete bargain. they can grow earnings 10% for a long time. jack: i've got to hear about deare before we go. do you still like it? what is so exciting in the world of combine harvesters making the stock run like this? todd: third year in a row we like it. precision agriculture, connecting combineds and tractors to the internet, the spectrum using less water, less pesticides, fertilizers, driving tractors this year. till the soil. you have a commodity act, recovery cycle, pushing margins higher. for 5 things to life, innovation, cash flow, valuation and a fantastic place to invest in the long-term. jack: i want to give a shout out to your dad. your dad was a twa pilot. thanks for coming on the show. up next, roundtable members

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♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

jack: i thought amazon's overnight delivery was impressive but you told me i could order a beer at the beginning of this show and have a blood in hand with actionable ideas. jack: are you talking 30 minute beer delivery or home beer tabs? i spoke this past week with michelle dugeiris, the ceo of anheuser-busch. he's looking for ways to shift from industry consolidation to

organic growth, selling more of those fruity fizzy drinks, something called brutal fruit is doing well in south africa, doing cold beer delivery in 30 minutes or less in some markets and in the uk sold more home beer taps, and testing it in miami, only a matter of time before it makes its way to new york. i will bring pretzels, or a brutal fruit. jack: the super bowl is coming up. let's move to actionable ideas. ben: freeport mcnamara, a copper miner, up to an all-time high, earnings coming out in a couple weeks. if they can keep breaking through these levels it could be good stuff. jack: could be a good sign for the economy. carleton: taking a look at wells fargo i like what i saw

on earnings and keeping relative to peers so investors who are on the sidelines this might be a good entry point. jack: the value play in the value sector. thanks for your insights as always. to read more go to baron's.com to read more go to baron's.com or follow us on twitter at (announcer) the following is a paid presentation furnished by rare collectibles tv, llc. (announcer) the biggest numismatic event of the year just occurred! the 2021 morgan and peace silver dollars are finally available and you are first in line to acquire your very own set right now! the silver dollar is the ultimate collector's coin and the two most popular silver dollar designs are the morgan silver dollar struck from 1878 to 1921 and