tv Barrons Roundtable FOX Business February 6, 2022 11:30am-12:00pm EST
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united states we companies or to what companies do whatever allows them to make the most money were that's why they are dancing to the ccp team and we should see through their hypocrisy when they make their social proclamations hear! hear! at home. gerry: 's a very strange form of capitalism are that's where he end of this week, indeed monica crowley and vivek ramaswamy pre-thank you offered joining us will be and prepare you for the work ahead. coming up a disappointing earnings report wipes $230 billion off of facebook's market value. what it could mean for you and your money and rich bernstein with how to protect your portfolio from risks and rising rates.
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we begin with the most important things investors are to be thinking about. stocks had a wicked week with a strong jobs report. investors are focused on reopening plays that may need a new playbook. at&t announced a spin off of warner media. been levinson and jack howell. it is another wild week with huge upside with amazon and downside with facebook but you are focused on the downside. why is that? jack: it was a wild week. facebook dropped 25% but we had snap dropped 20% in one day and 50% the next and we had big
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gains in out for bit. the nasdaq is higher which is great but the volatility is not what you want to see. there is a fragility we need to be aware of. the selling we saw in january is not over yet. jack: we had a jobs report that surprised to the upside. everyone thought the omicron wave, we had a terrible number. it wasn't for omicron we would've had a barn burner? >> there were seasonal adjustments but they were necessary because the headline number was out of whack with everything in the report and now it lines up well but the reopening is further along than we thought. that is how good the number
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was. jack: what are you looking for in the coming weeks? >> more earnings. none of the big tech companies but things like pfizer, disney, chip only. i would not be surprised if we get more big moves next week. jack: ben is suggesting maybe covid isn't weighing on things as heavily as we think. tell us about that. >> the reopening meant go to a restaurant and travel again. now reopening is taking another form of easy money, low interest rates, the move the federal reserve made to prop up the economy and markets. that punch bowl is being taken away. it's a challenging time for investors.
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companies are reopening and perform well as we do things more but we identified companies that can navigate. jack: give us those names. >> these companies, there were several years of looking at online travel plays. that's the reopening investment. that the play on rising oil prices, chevron has purchased the balance sheet. a good play. another one to look at was ups. we did see the stock surge but is trading below the market multiple. in a rising cost environment, they are controlling those costs.
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jack: that was a hint of good things from amazon. nice paint job in the background. let's go to jack. on at&t a dividend cut and the time warner spinoff but neither of those were surprises but stock sold off. jack: i say when is the payment coming? in the case of at&t the company will cut its payment by half. as it spins off warner media that will affect the stock prices. you are left with 6.5%. the share price is so low because it was such a stinky stinker for so long. the company will do its best verizon impression, spend its
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money on its own network. you would think shareholders would be appeased by that. the cell phone business has been growing nicely. if there's bad news, t-mobile has been growing exceptionally well. of things slow down it will be a share gainer or. if you are an investor you wonder what to do. you have to focus on how much they are going to spend on sex and the city reboot or something like that and the risk of a dividend cut is off the table because it is no longer a risk. at the 70. jack: that is a good sign. how do you whether the risks of this market? this market? i will ask rich bernstein next.
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[kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones jack: market volatility could stick around for a while. what is the best way to whether these risks? let's ask money manager richard bernstein. so good to have you on "barron's roundtable". appreciate you coming on. richard: thanks for the invitation. jack: they have their thumb on the stock market. explain what you mean by that. richard: we are in a situation where the fed has dominated the long end of the yield curve,
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quantitative easing, buying long-term bonds. at its peak, the fed owned over 50% of the 10 to 20 year treasury market. that distorted long-term interest rates. what they didn't anticipate as they distort valuations of every asset price on the long end of the yield curve. we have overvalued assets whether it is crypto currency's or anything like that. that is a direct result of the fed distorting the long end of the yield curve. jack: a lot of people say the 10 year is yielding 1.7c so there's not much growth in the market. that's not a real signal. give us a little historical context. we had a tailwind in the stock and bond market for 40 years. richard: is the bond market
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telling you anything? not sure. when people say it is only 170, or 180 on the 10 year how much growth can there be? the fed is not letting it talk. your point is important in terms of the 40 year tailwind. we had 40 years of disinflation and downward sloping interest rates that gave rise to a lot of the things and a lot of the sectors of the stock market, themes that outperformed the people consider normal. the inflation backdrop is starting to change. we are not going back to the 1970s but it's changing which means portfolio constructions may be inappropriate for the next five years. jack: you think the growth stocks that have been powering the market for five years could be in bad position for this outlook.
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richard: absolutely. assume the fed extract themselves from the long end of the yield curve, they sell 10 or 20 year bonds. that means rates go up. what that means is anything that is high pe, of high price to earnings ratio. if interest rates fall, p ratios go up. if long-term interest rates go up those growth stocks will have the biggest risk because they don't have incremental near-term earnings growth to offset incremental negative of rising rates. cyclicals probably would. jack: cyclicals would be one opportunity to shift your portfolio. you are really heavy on big tech stocks. tell us what the portfolio should look like? richard: i think it should be
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pro-inflation assets. this is an asset class investors are universally underweight whether it is family offices, high net worth individuals. everybody is underweight pro-inflation assets with what are pro-inflation assets? energy, materials, industrials, high-yield bonds. emerging markets tied to commodities. gold. nothing i am saying is growth oriented investments because that doesn't work in a rising inflation rising interest rate environment. jack: looking overseas, the stock market towered by big tech stocks has done better than the rest of the world. is it time to look abroad? >> i think so. you go back 10 or 11 years ago no one wanted to invest in the united states. if they wanted growth you had to invest in emerging markets.
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emerging markets underperformed the united states for decades. now there's a complete 180. where else would you invest than the united states? that comes when fundamentals are improving outside the united states and markets are cheaper, more undervalued. historically, there's opportunities. jack: nobody wants to invest their which means you should. thanks a lot. richard: thanks for having me. jack: mark zuckerberg is blaming the declining users on competition from tiktok. is a mistake to switch to the meta-verse? laura martin will tell us next. real cowboys get customized car insurance
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jack: meta-forcemack rattled the market with the biggest decline in stock market history. of the companies reported strong earnings. meta lost $230 billion after forecasting slowing growth for facebook. laura martin joins the panel. why did investors react so violently to this earnings report and is this is a stock specific problem? laura: the business model is broken. mark zuckerberg said two things affected, one was revenue and the competition from tiktok which is taking younger users and time spent and the privacy upgrades at apple. really hurting their ability to target.
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couple those revenue pressures with twee 7 areas including the meta-verse means not only are we lowering revenue growth but more dramatically lowering ets and ebidta margins. jack: i want to ask about a reference to brand risk. we had eric schmidt on the show who pointed out some of these companies are using outdoor rhythms to amplify outrage. it worked really well. he is spreading disinformation. did this catch up with him? >> mark zuckerberg personally and facebook generally sustained billions of dollars of brand risk. when he talks about the meta-verse, that scares
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consumers. apple is a justifiable steward of consumers. the idea that oculis replacing the apple ecosystem is scary to a lot of consumers. carleton: facebook acknowledges users spending less time on the platform. they reported fewer users. that was a first for them. are they leaving for platforms like tiktok, or his social media on its way out the way we've been experiencing it? laura: exactly right. people don't want to talk to friends but create communities around tiktok or reddit, creator is of interest with people they don't know. that is where it is going and
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one of the 7 areas, content that has nothing to do with your friends but these monopoly businesses, he goes into areas where other competitors have been for five to 10 years. >> facebook is shrinking. the company is spending a lot of money in the meta-verse. i don't get how sticking a giant moon visor in someone's head makes more likely to stick around? how does the company make money in the meta-verse? is there's a chance for this spending? laura: he was having trouble hiring engineers and when he said he was a leader in the meta-verse that is attractive to employees. it does cost money which facebook hates the keeping your employees, that's the core values of part of it is hiring.
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he needs machine learning at the meta-verse attracts that kind of person. that is around employee retention. ben:insta growth was supposed to be the growth driver as facebook matured. laura: they copied snapchat. i think snap has pivoted and is keeping up with that narrow 16 to 26-year-old and facebook is a behemoth that is not kept up as quickly. instagram stayed where it started at instant reacting to videos as it should be. it has fallen behind. compared to snap which feels like they are doing something new. much faster to react. jack: mark's mo is copying people before they become too big.
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laura: that is a fair assessment, copy things others have done and modify them but now he is out of ideas. jack: appreciate your insight. roundtable members give their investment ideas for the coming week and jack will tell us week and jack will tell us about ♪ ♪ you can't buy love. or peace. you can't buy security. you can't buy happiness. you can't buy confidence. but you can invest in it. we believe that your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
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hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq jack: over the past 12 months people betting against kathy woods have done well. there is an etf that is up 50%. she is sticking to her guns. jack: she is. some people go kathy crazy.
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people have passionate views. fans and critics. her fund is down 50% in the past year. her flagship fund. it is a 250% over the past five years. what you see is what you get. investors deserve spicy choices and kathy brings the heat. i ask what she's been telling investors. she things rate hike fears are overblown. she is sticking with names like tesla and zoom video and roku. index funds have come to reasonable each other and investors crammed into the same mature growth stocks. have a listen. cathie :they look nothing like the broad benchmarks lose the nasdaq and s&p are beginning to look like each other. we are the new nasdaq.
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jack: i haven't gone cathie crazy but she is still answering questions after a tough year for returns. jack: she is still picking up the phones. we only have one rate hike, that is way out of consensus. carlton, you are going with one of the reopening plays. carleton: raytheon technologies by 12%. the reopening play doesn't just mean travel but a defense play. jack: we could see some action in defense stocks. benyou're going with a safe pick. ben:i'm going with gold shares and it is scary. you want some balance. gold hasn't done much. next year hasn't done much for a while. a good play to have.
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jack: crypto keeps getting hit. people turn from digital gold. all great ideas. to read more check out this weekend edition at barrons.com. see you next week on "barron's roundtable". ♪♪ dr. michael youssef: the word of god, if we don't read it regularly, if we don't follow it closely, the lostness can be very serious. the bible says that in the last days, there's gonna be a famine for the word of god. it is the burden of my life to equip you for those days that are coming upon us. i want to tell you today about seven deadly sins that you must not commit as you read the word of god.
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