maria: very, very sweet. i love it. joe concha, jonathan, great to be with you both this morning. we had a great show. we're looking at another triple-digit decline, the dow industrials down 128 despite the fact we got much -- better than expected retail sales numbers. "varney & company" if begins right now. stu, take it away. stuart: all right. good morning, maria, and good morning, everyone. the russian military announced the pullback of troops on the ukraine border, stocks went up even though our military sees no troop movement yet, and cyber attacks have been reported in ukraine. stocks are holding relatively close to those big gains we saw yesterday. by the way, a half hour ago a very strong 3.8% gain in retail sales was reported for january. this number is not adjusted for inflation. and it did make something of a difference to stock prices. it turned them lower. the dow jones average up 422

points on tuesday, it's actually down now 139 points, and most of that loss occurred in the last few minutes of after we got the retail sales numbers. the s&p 500 down 20 points, the nasdaq is down 90. so some of yesterday's gains retraced as of this morning. let's have a rook at the yield on the 10- year treasury. it's still holding above the 2% level, only just right at 2 president right now -- 2% right now. oil at $93 a barrel earlier, 93.57 right now. and cryptos, well, they are holding on to their gains, still at 43,000 on bitcoin. not that much movement there. let's move away prosecute markets. it is end game for omicron. new cases plunging, restrictions coming off. at long last, california will today end the outdoor mask mandate. perhaps the authorities were embarrassed by the non-masked fans outdoors at the super bowl. the cdc will update its mask guidelines today.

if -- disney will drop its mask requirement for vaccinated guests, and that's coming up very soon. a spectacular loss for three radicals on the san francisco school board. they lost in a recall vote. it was a landslide. parents clearly fed up with the school board's farcical, woke policies and their complete inability to educate. on june the 7th, there's a recall vote for the uber-radical d.a.. there's a message here for other cities: parents don't have to put up with failing schools or soft on crime d.a.s. organize, vote and you can winment wednesday, february 16th, 2022, "varney & company" is about to begin. ♪ ♪ ♪ stuart: wake me up.

you think i'm not awake with after half a gallon of coffee? it's 9:00 in the morning? i went to tea where there's still a great deal of caffeine. let's get started. we've got that retail sales number, up 3.8%, not adjusted for inflation. tell me more. lauren: and that's a big deal. this is all about price. it's a big reversal from december, the most in ten months, up 3.8%. but, look, it's a solid print, nonetheless, showing americans continue to spend their money despite high inflation and despite the falloff of those government checks, right? where are we spending our money? you can see the internet, sales up 14.5%. home turn ifishings -- furnishings up more than 7. my market translation, i think that's what you're seeing with the futures, a fed hike is pretty much guaranteed at this pointment. stuart: yep. lauren: and we view those confidence numbers from the university of michigan, they're god awful, the worst in a decade. so why are we spending money? i think the message is, you

know, watch what we do as american consumers, not what we say. lauren: near -- stuart: near blasphemy at 9:00 in the morning. lauren: i i drink a cot of coffee too. [laughter] stuart: i call it a solid print. look at the futures, please, they are in decline. now we're down 130 on the dow, 80 on the nasdaq. shah gilani is with us right now. up until a few hours ago, we had a rally. i don't think you expect the rally to last, do you? >> unfortunately, i don't think it can, stuart, because what we're seeing now is good news is becoming bad news as we've seen many times in the past. every good print we see as is the latest example on the retail sales number spells likely greater hikes, probably more consistently trout the year by the federal reserve, and i think investors are nervous about potential rate hikes especially if we continue to see high inflation numbers. when we see retail sales

increase in the face of inflation, part of what we're seeing is consumers willing to spend now ahead of higher prices in the future. that doesn't portend well for inflation and likely assumes probably at least four, five hikes throughout 2022. stuart: it sounds like you really have changed your outlook significantly. you used to be the king of buy the dip. every time we had a dip, shah gilani would be buying that thing. it was successful. now you're beginning to talking about maybe doing some selling, and i don't think we've heard that from you before. >> not talking about doing selling, stuart, looking to buy dips. i just think we may get some substantial dips now and then as rates start to rise, as investors get worried about what pace they will rise, how high they could go and whether or not the fed overreaches and perhaps, as some analysts are saying, pushes the economy into resession. i don't think that's going to -- recession. i don't think that's going to happen, not by a long shot, but

i think they're -- there are going to be greater opportunities down the road to buy dips. there are already a great number of excellent companies on sale. we're going to see more of that. stuart: okay, thanks very much, see you again soon. i'm going to call this a breakthrough, disney getting rid of the masks at the theme parks. does that start today? lauren: no, tomorrow. for the vaccinate vaccinated, you don't have to war your mask indoors -- wear your mask indoors anymore. if you're taking your kid who's 6 and they're not vaccinated, they have to wear a mask. is that fair? you know -- stuart: fair point, but attendees don't seem to care because attendance and spending at the theme parks has gone straight up. lauren: oh, record numbers. stuart: they've got pricing power and masking power as well with. lauren: they do. i don't know how you police this either way. i don't think they're going to give you a wristband to say this person is unvaccinated,

therefore, he was to wear a mask. maybe the translation will be just go and have fun and do what you want when it comes to masking. [laughter] stuart: now, i think this is a blockbuster story. residents of san francisco overwhelmingly voted to recall three of the city's school board members. they were radicals. real radicals, and they are gone. todd piro joins us. these people were recalled in a landslide. i'm hoping it sets a pattern for other cities where the soft on crime da.s and school boards -- >> as you said, it was a big deal. let me explain why i agree with you. san francisco probably has 0.00 republicans, so the people that ousted these woke progressive, very, very leftist were -- leftists were democrats themselves. the campaign was based upon the very controversial notion of teaching math, science and english in schools, you know, ignoring all the other gibber jabr.

these three lost because they put forward a campaign to rename schools while schools were shut and these kids couldn't learn. stuart: right. >> if all candidates want to win in november making this a broader picture, stick with the issues that parents care about; crime, educating their kids and the economy. and they will win. stuart: okay. so as of now, indoor mask mandates in california gone, l.a. county outdoor mask mandate gone but masks stay in the schools. look at this l.a. times' op-ed. it says schools are doing fine with masks. dropping mandates now would be premature. are you about to explode on this? >> the question on the prompter says has anyone asked the children. [laughter] i want to go to the answer to that question which is did you see the video out of nevada, las vegas, when kids were told in that city they would no longer have to wear masks? exuberance.

it was beyond cheering. it was like those children won the super bowl. so to your point, did we ask is the kids? clearly not, because kids don't want this. and i'm tired of the jen psakis of the world saying, well, my kid doesn't meaned. maybe they're not -- doesn't mind. maybe they're not being honest with you. i'm an adult that can sort of rationalize, i immediate to do this for this and this reason. a 6-year-old child having to deal with the mask all day? stuart: yeah. i want the option, not the mandate. it should be my choice, my assessment of rusk, not theirs. >> and yet l.a., those kinds of places still is sticking with this. stuart: i'm glad you're on the show, todd. >> having a good time. stuart: thank you very much, indeed. the ceo of moderna giving an optimistic outlook on where we are in this pandemic. lauren, did he say it's oversome or nearly over? lauren: no. but he said it's reasonable to think we're in the final stages putting an 80% chance of future

variants being less virulent and a 20% chance that they could be worse. i think the translation is it's endemic, don't panic. just live. stuart: down goes the stock. lauren. lauren: yeah. i think that's what most people are starting to realize now, how do we live with this, and that's officially what he said. you'll still have your booster -- stuart: omicron's on the way out. lauren: yeah. but what is the next variant? we don't know. stuart: do you know there's going to be a next variant? >> lauren: he says there's an 80% chance there's a new one that's less virulent. >> i think they should name it after you. [laughter] lauren: is that called confidence? stuart: no, that's a alliteration. shall we move on? [laughter] check futures, heading just a little bit further south. dow's down 150, nasdaq close to 100. the canadian freedom convoy digging in after prime minister trudeau invoked emergency powers

to move 'em. why not end the vaccine mandate in the united states? why not? if senator marsha blackburn takes it on shortly. you ukraine's president zelensky has declared today a day of unity. he said russia could invaded today, so we're going to take you live to kyiv, the capital of ukraine. ♪ ♪ but there is one van equipped to handle them all. for over 120 years, mercedes-benz vans have been built, upfitted and ready to go. because we believe dreams - should never stay that way. ♪♪

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♪ ♪ stuart: yes, today is february the 16th, and there has been a lot of talk about today being the day that russia invades, so what's it like in kyiv, ukraine's capital? steve harrigan is there. must be pretty tense, steve is, right? >> reporter: actually, you would think it would be tense, right? you'd think people would be going to stores, stocking up,

maybe fleeing the country, the currency would be dropping. actually, none of that is happening here. they call it a day of unity. a lot of ukrainians are out with the flag showing their solidarity and also showing their calm. what we have seen over and over again on russian state-controlled television are images, aim -- imimagines of what the russians say are troops pulling back, tanks put on trains and pulled away, forces, mechanical vehicles, armored vehicles being pulled away from ukraine's border. president putin has said he is pulling back some forces without saying how many, and yet when you talk to the secretary general of nato, he says what is, in fact, happening is not an escalation are, but the very opposite of that. here's the secretary general. >> so far we have not seen any deescalation on the ground. on the country, it appears russia continues their military

buildup. >> reporter: now, there were some nerves on tuesday, that's when there were a number of different cyber attacks in ukraine. it's not clear who the attackers were, but cyber attacks have often come either just before or at the very start of a russian invasion. two major banks were hit, so a lot of people had trouble using their atm cards for a while. the defense ministry hit as well. this may have been just a warning shot. back to you. stuart: thanks very much, steve. i want you to check out this op-ed in the "new york times." it's from their ace editorial writer, tom friedman. here it is, is sleepy joe biden making vladimir putin blink? so to marsha black bush. -- marsha blackburn. senator, that editorial, three pulitzers he's won, to me, it suggests biden is winning. what say you? >> stuart, we would not be in this situation right now if

biden had shown some strength early on. last fall if he had put sanctions in place, if he had started to sell lethal assistance to the ukrainian army, if he had been firm when he went to nato and would have said we all have to stand against russia in this, we have to stand with ukraine, but joe biden didn't do that. so now it is bush -- pushed up to the brink. but, you knowing as bob gates told us, joe biden has been wrong on every foreign policy issue for 40 years. and indeed, he's a little bit late to the game. glad that he is showing some force, that he is stepping up now, but he is not making putin blink. putin has been in charge of this this situation because he views joe biden as being weak, as being rudderless, as being very

timid when it comes to making decisions. stuart: got it. i'm going to change the subject for a second, senator. >> sure. stuart: in canada the fight is over the vaccine mandate, and it's been pill -- spilling out all over the place. maybe we should have that fight here. are you in favor of ending the vax mandate in america? >> oh, yes, absolutely. and while i'm someone who's been vaccinated and i give president donald trump the credit for operation warp speed and challenging federal agencies and the vaccine companies, i am very much opposed to these mandates. i know plenty of people who were double vaxxed and boosted and still have gotten omicron. and what we have to realize is we're moving to that endemic stage, away from a pandemic. this has followed closely the pattern of the spanish flu. we are going to have strains or

variants from time to time. we've got to learn to live with it and get back to normal. [laughter] stuart: yes, indeed. and the state of the union message march the 1st, i've been suggesting the president may declare victory over covid and take the credit. >> yeah. stuart: what do you think? >> well, we have heard that he is trying to do that. i think the governors and the different states have kind of beat him to the punch on that because people are tired of it. teachers and physicians want these masks off of children during school. they are looking at the loss of learning, they're looking at the mental health issues of that have come from this, and basically they're saying, okay, get over it. find a way to deal with this for the sake of the children. stuart: absolutely. get rid of those masks in schools, please. senator blackburn, congratulations on your victory over crack pipes. we really should have mentioned that. you did win a victory for us all there, and we appreciate it. >> yes, we did. thank you, stuart.

stuart: sure thing. see you again soon. the protests in canada, they started actually in montreal because quebec, the province, had the strictest lockdown restrictions of just about any place, but lauren -- lauren: yep. stuart: -- i hear they're easing up on restrictions now. lauren: it starts march 14th. that is a big deal because quebec was the first province to have the vaccine passport, the curfews. they did that more than once. and they were the province behind taxing the unvaccinated that became so just outrageous, they dropped that idea. quebec, manitoba, ontario, alberta, saws cash wan announcing -- saskatchewan announcing or lifting restrictions. stuart: that's why the truckers' convoy started. lauren: which is why there should be a come prohis now between trudeau, not invoking emergency powers, there should be a compromise between the

government and the people. stuart: i think they'll get it, frankly. we're moving in that direction. got it. again, quickly check the futures, please. dow's going to be down about 160, and the nasdaq's down about 100 points. that retail sales number upset the whole ball of wax. we'll be back. ♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.”

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♪ stuart: i'm showing you the 3.02% -- 2.02% yield on the 10-year treasury. eddie ghabour, that is an important number. welcome back. what is a 2.02% yield on the 10-year treasury, what does it mean to you? >> the bugger picture, and this is something we've been talking about, the bond market has been sending warning signals that i think many have been ignoring. look at the 2s and 10s. the yield spread is starting to tighten, okay in and when you have that happen right before the fed starts all righting the rate hike, the fed only affects the short-term rate. they may have to force a recession by inverting the yield

curve to calm down the inflation. the inflation data continues to get hot, and now with the russia-ukraine issue, it's accelerating the inflationary problems with natural gas and oil. so they are in an impossible position here where if they tighten like they say, we're going to be into a recession, potentially, and if they do nothing, we could potentially be in a recession is because inflation's going to go through the roof and kill the consumer even more. stuart in the good old days, 5-10 years ago, if anybody on this program used the expression qe 3 or inverted yield curve, they'd get something called a buzzer because a lot of people don't understand that jargon. so let's redo this in english. you're saying with a 9.whatever it is inflation rate and with interest rates going up and down like this -- wait, i've got this all wrong. we need the buzzer on me. what you're saying is we're about to see a sharp jump in interest rates, and that's going

to kill the market. that's what you're saying, right? >> on the short end, okay? the short end is going to be increasing, so the 2-year bond keeps going up, and i believe the 10-year bond is going to be going down over the next six months because the economic data that's going to be coming out over the next six months is not going to be good. stuart: okay. >> and that's going to cause the 10-year bond to drop. institute stuart and if the fed starts jumping up interest rates, as a it will quite vigorously, that could push us into recession. is that what you said? >> absolutely. and i'm amazed how people haven't been derisking portfolios in this environment. i think these next six months are going to be very challenging, and it's going to continue to trade like a bear market where you'll get these bounces that give people hope. but, i mean, the data is right in front of us, and it is crystal clear what's going to be happening. stuart: were you telling your clients to sell into yesterday's big rally? >> fortunately, stuart, i told

you this back in november, our actively-managed strategy that is based on short-term trends has 0% mega-cap tech going into this year. so we didn't have to reduce risk into this rally because we already did it. we're actually buying bond approximately ises -- proxies when they drop because we think that's where the money's going to to be made in the next six months, and it's going to reduce volatility in our portfolios. then in august more than likely we will start buying these dips because we think we're going to see massive losses that materialize, unfortunately. stuart: i don't know how you run your business. do you tell your clients or do you advise your clients what to do, or do you control their money anyway and do it for them? >> we do it for them, but we also communicate the changes that we're doing for them. i just did an event yesterday for our clients, and we were crystal clear in regards to what our market prognosis was for the next six months. look, it's not easy to go out and make these bold calls, but our clients to not sugar coat

anything. the bottom line is we haven't seen poor economic setup like this in more than 40 years, so i can't sit here and do nothing for our clients when the data is smacking us in the face that we are going to see decelerating economically, and the fed is so late to the game they have to raise rates during that slowdown. stuart: i just hope you get it right, eddie. you've been right so far, and we'll see you again soon. it's 9:30 eastern time. it is wednesday all day, and the market has just opened to the downside. this is not a huge loss yet at this point in the early going, down 130 points. that's about one-third of 1%. just remember the dow was up 400 points yesterday, so this is a minor pullback at least at the opening bell. the s&p 500, pretty much the same story. you're down .4% there after a whopping, great big gain yesterday. and i think the nasdaq will show the same tale. down at the opening bell about two-thirds of 1% after a big rally yesterday. with the nas if that can down --

nasdaq down 100 points, the only winner is google which is up $5. the rest of them down. microsoft well below $300 a share. apple's down a few cents. meta platforms is down nearly $8 at 213. that's an interesting number. meta platforms originally, maybe november if -- november if, october of last year was well above $300 a share. it's 313 right -- 213 right now. airbnb, susan, come into this. is travel recovering from the pandemic? susan: well, for airbnb, yes, because they just reported a record year, 2021, and they're saying that for this quarter we are back to pre-pandemic sales. in fact, even exceeding 2019 bookings, they say, and that's despite the fact they had a slight miss when it comsexer, to the -- comes to the final three

months of last year. you saw that negative number show up in the markets today, but it looks like omicron not as bad as feared, and they're saying 50% of their bookings are for trips longer than seven nights. so think of the remote work point we're in. stuart: roblox, don't tell me, the stock is down because they missed those sacred expectations, is that what's going on here? [laughter] susan: yes. but, look, that that's how you price a stock because everything you know about it's already been priced in. that's when you get the big reaction, and this is the reaction on wall street, rewarded for performance and slammed and hammer hammered for disappointments. in fact, their hases were double what wall street was expecting in the final three months of last year despite the fact they had daily active users going up to 49.5 million, and they grew

that number by other a third in the past year. that was pretty impressive, don't you think? january not as strong though, bookings only growing 3%. roblox is leading the push into the metaverse, and they're allowing users to make their own virtual world and wear virtual clothing like nike shoes, etc. you know roblox, 50% of their users are under the age of 18. there's a long pipeline, is what i'm saying. stuart: and they're wig in the -- big in the metaverse, i got that. did you see meta platforms all the way down to $212 a share? what's -- susan: that's right. 3% selloff. i was just trying to look for a reason behind it. we know that mark zuckerberg had an all-hands virtual meeting yesterday where he talked about the metaverse and calling everybody meta mate. i'm not sure that's it, but i'll look into it. stuart: i just find that a stunning reversal from well over

$300 to 214 on this wednesday morning. let's move on. shopify, they reported before the bell this morning. they're down 14%. what happened? susan: yeah. again. so forecasting a slowdown the first half of this year. and they barely beat in the holiday shopping period where they should be putting in amazon-like numbers. they didn't. sales will be down the first quarter of this year, and they'll be highest in the final quarter of 2022. so you get that? there'll be improvement along the year, and this is because it's hard to compare, they said, during covid when merchants were all just scrambling to get online. they're also a building out fulfillment centers which takes up cash, as you can imagine. they're trying to offer merchants an amazon-like service to help store and ship out their goods. shopify's more like -- they're the second largest e-commerce player, but they provide the front-end payment system. stuart: okay. a totally different company, lay z boy. i think they reported, was ited

to or earlier this morning, what happened there? susan yeah. they missed badly on profits and supply chain issues means they can't make enough of their iconic furniture to shift. and i want to show you generac because the generator maker is up after making more money last year. residential-commercial sales were up 40%. is people were definitely scrambling to buy alternative energy somehow. stuart: why not? if i've got to say. the price of oil is moving up a bit -- susan: 93. 93.75 was the session high that we just saw. so as you can imagine, oil sector outperforming over the past year this quarter, and you heard opec make comments this morning talking about a quick increase in demand and also signaling that they might be turning on a tap saying that oil supply, there's not enough out there. let's see if that brings down oil prices because we know we're heading towards $100 a barrel right now.

stuart: if only we could drill for our own oil and natural gas. wouldn't that be wonderful? if. susan: energy independence, yeah. wonderful thing. susan: -- stuart: susan, you're all right. dow winners headed by chevron, caterpillar's in there, coca-cola as well. s&p 500 winners headed up by generac, the generator people. good stuff. nasdaq winners, i don't -- it's been a long time since i saw any of the big tech names on that list, and they're not on it today. exxon's there, of course, oil prices going up. as for the big board, we're, what, six minutes into the session, and we're down 85 points, one-quarter of 1%. the 10-year is 2.02%. gold, yes, it is an inflation hedge, and it's at 1864 per ounce. bitcoin, $43,600. oil, we just showed you, $93 a barrel and change, and nat gas, i'm interested, where is it? if 4.49, moving up. the price of a gallon of regular

gasoline now averages $3.51. it's going up about one cent a day. and look at california, also up one cent a day. those people, poor devils, have to pay $4.72 for a gallon of regular. coming up, the democrat governor of illinois tried to renew mask mandates in schools, but lawmakers voted unanimously to block it. ah, the tide is turning. look at this, a new york post photographer went to a duane reid to report on an earlier theft and witnesses another one taking place. we'll show it to you. new and used car prices through the roof, but exactly how much more will you be paying? we're going to take you to a car dealership right after this. ♪ i'm in love, i'm all shook up ♪♪

alright, so...cordless headphones, you can watch movies through your phone? and y'all got electric cars? yeah. the future is crunk! (laughs) anything else you wanna know? is the hype too much? am i ready? i can't tell you everything. but if you want to make history, you gotta call your own shots. we going to the league!

♪ stuart: 21 minutes into the

trading session, and the nasdaq's not doing well, shall we say. it's down 166, better than a is 1% loss. used car prices, they're up, what, about 40% in the last year. you're going to shell out just under $30,000 for the average used car. jeff flock's at a dealership in philadelphia. jeff, when are things going to get better? [laughter] >> reporter: you want good news? if i got nothing. it's good news if you've got a car to sell, not if you're looking to buy a car. i've got to show you this example. this just makes the point. you said already 40%. look at this, this is a chevy equinox, 2019. this one off the lot, it sold for $26,700. that was the msrp. now it's now 2022, it sits here on the lot with 30,000 plus miles, it's now selling for

$29,984. don't you wish you had this? i know you used to have a van. you should have held on to it. take a look at this, chrysler pacifica. 2021, 42 grand. 2022 right now, it's worth more than when you bought it. same as this equinox. crazy. and it's all about the chips, you know? you want to try to blame biden for inflation, well, you can't blame him for this because it's about the chips. listen to the folks at ed mondays. >> 90-95% with production is down to just the chips. there really isn't a lot else out there in this industry. there's no phone crisis,st it just comes down to these chips. >> reporter: i leave you with one final one. i know you used to have that van. what was that, was that a town and country you had? dodge caravan i've got for you. stuart: yeah, that's what it

was. >> reporter: it was a town and country, right? stuart: it was a grand caravan. >> reporter: this is a dodge caravan, three years old. last january sold for $15,000. now it's selling for $25,000. it's better than crypto. stuart: i had six of those grand caravans back in the '80s and the '90s when my children were young. i don't have 'em now, i wish i could because i could actually make a profit. and, by the way, i'm going to editorialize on my grand caravan at the top of the hour. tune in, flo flock -- flock, you're going to learn something nor more. >> reporter: i look forward to it. stuart: you're all right. the retail sales numbers, we had a gain of 3.8% in the month of january. we need an economist. here he is, john lonski, the man himself. what do those numbers tell you about the economy, john? >> well, retail sales much better than expected, consumer spending remains solid but let's not forget that to a

considerable extent that january increase was inflated by price inflation. as you were mentioning what's going on with autos, used autos, you look at it, you get a big year to year jump by the dollar value of auto dealership sales by 11 or 12%. that increase gets more than eaten up by the accompanying jump in prices for new and used cars. stuart: okay. we've got dismal consumer sentiment. it really is dismal. and we've got a federal reserve that is expected to raise rates quite sharply in march. does that add up to a recession? >> until. i mean, unless consumer sentiment improves substantially. we're looking at a nearly 2% federal funds rate toward the end of this year with consumer sentiment remaining in the

bottom percentile. that's the bottom 10%. we are looking at a recession. and, in fact, right now the consumer sentiment index as measured by the university of michigan resides at a level where when in the past it was this low, five of the six times it was as low as it was in january, a recession would materialize or was already present. stuart: is the consumer sentiment so far down largely because of inflation? >> it's mostly because of inflation, and it may be telling us that we are overestimating labor market strength. you know, from what i've been told it's a great labor market if you want an unskilled job or if you're very good at coding, you're very good at computer sciences, you're a younger worker with a great outlook. however, if you're older and

don't possess the skills companies are looking for, it is not so great out there in the job market. stuart: john lonski, economist, thank you very much, john. see you again soon. >> thank you, stuart. stuart: the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the united states is $3.51, going up about one cent a day. now, lauren, what's this about some democrats, they want just -- it sounds like desperation to me -- cut the federal gasoline tax. lauren: it's not just any democrat. at least four that are, have signed on to this bill are in tight re-election bids this november, and they are senator mark kelly of arizona, maggie hassan of new hampshire and one of the senators from nevada and georgia. they want to scrap the 18.4-cent federal gas tax for the rest of this year because they realize, ooh, when people go to fill up the gas tank, it's hurting them a lot. so, yes, they've acknowledged the problem, but i don't greet with the solution. it's not, oops, this is my

fault. it was these policies that promoted too much renewables and really cut back completely on fossil fuels that we're in this position in the first place. they're begging for forgiveness. stuart: here's what's coming up, three radical a members of the san francisco school board were tossed out. it was a recall vote, and they lost in a land slide. that's a big win for parents every where, and that's the theme of my take in the 11:00 hour. baseball's opening day could be delayed. owners and players caught in a labor dispute. we've got the report from florida. ♪ if i pitch, can you watch. p? ♪ will you hold the ball? ♪♪ navigate this landscape, leveraging gold, a strategic and sustainable asset... the path is gilded with the potential for rich returns. a must in your medicine cabinet!

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because the riege's -- league's in the middle of a labor dispute. connell mcshane in florida, does this mean there's no opening day? and what is the big issue that's keeping these two sides apart? >> reporter: there are a bun bunch of them, stuart. it's supposed to be march 31st, i think it's fair to say at this point that is in serious jeopardy. both sides agree that they need to get a deal done by about the 1st of march in order to have an on-time start to the season, and i would say that's about the only thing that they agree on at this point. the owners presented the players with a 130-page document with their side on saturday, so now we're waiting for the players to respond to that. i checked in with, you know, people close to the negotiations on both sides. i'm told by the union side that a counter-offer is likely, but there also are a bunch of players high up in the union that don't even think it's worth countering, that's how far apart they are. three big sticking points, the competitive balance tax.

owners want to raise taxes on teams that spend too much, essentially. a source close to the union said that would hurt so much, it would outweigh everything else they're getting in other area. that's how they see it. then there's this bonus pool for young stairs -- stars. the problem with that, the owners want $15 million in the pool, 1-5. the players want 100 million, so they're nowhere close. and then on minimum valerie -- salaries, the players want 775,000, the owners are offering about 630. missing regular season games this season is a real possibility. the owners are saying the players already have the best labor agreement in all of sports, and they still will when all of this is over whereas the players keep going back to that competitive balance tax i talked about. listen, we might not have a salary cap like other sports, but if this is put in place, this would essentially be a salary cap. meantime, the fans are losing out. this is supposed to be the first full day of spring training in

jupiter. it's a big day in florida, spring training, as you know, the as toes, nationals in west palm if, the marlins and cardinals share this stadium behind me in jupiter, and this is three years in a row where this has been interrupted for one reason or another, you know, covid cut spring short in 2020, last year wasn't really normal, and we don't know what's going to happen this year. doesn't look good right now, stuart. stuart: yeah. a work stoppage in any sport is bad news for the sport. connell mcshane, enjoy the sun. [laughter] check the market, please, coming up on 10:00. we're on the downside, especially the nasdaq, down nearly 200 points. still ahead, bill bennett, senator john barrasso, congressman dan crenshaw, jason rantz and much more. the 10:00 hour of "varney" is next. ♪ are you happy now? ♪♪

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mode. after yesterday's rally we are selling off today. yesterday the rally was the result of the russians saying they were moving troops away from the ukraine border. this morning nato is accusing russia of increasing its troop strength. when nato said that, our market turned south. that's what you have now, down 200 points for the dow, down 200 points for the nasdaq composite. the tenure treasury yield up a bit more, 2.03%. that doesn't help the market. the price of oil has gone to $94 a barrel. that doesn't help the market either. the latest read on homebuilder sentiment. heather: 82 is the number. the reason, quote, production disruptions. many waiting months to receive

cabinets to the garage doors and appliances. residential construction costs are of 21% annually. people are getting priced out and getting impatient. amy: jerry howard will be on the show shortly. now this. inflation pops up in the most unexpected places. sometimes it's a real shock. left-hand side of the screen a grand caravan from chrysler, minivan. i have to tell you when my children were young i was driving grand caravans one after the other. we bought 6. i think it was one of the best vehicles i ever owned. here the inflation part. if i put a 3-year-old grand caravan up for sale one year ago edmonds, the car people, say i could have done 15,$200 for it. the same minivan would bring in 25,$700 today, up 69% in one

year. that is inflation. turns out the grand caravan shows the biggest price inflation of any used car model. as charles payne says, that 69% gain is better than 99% of all money managers. what is going on? the pandemic lockdown and chip shortage cut the production of new cars so used cars were much in demand and consumers had the money to pick prices up. a basic economic lesson. you cut supply, raise demand with government handouts and prices go up, the same with energy and food, emerson the white house, congress and federal reserve need to learn. the second hour of varney getting started.

liz peek joins us, the story of the grand caravan. do you think the inflation problem will drive us into a recession? >> jay powell and the fed have to move so aggressively, they are behind the 8 ball and could begin to slow economic activity. we haven't seen that yet and may not see it for 6 to 12 months because changes in the money supply don't affect the economy for a long time. numbers are still getting worse. you just had used cars, other people having it with going to pay their rent or home heating bill, filling up their gas tank.

inflation, the best economists on wall street, is everywhere. we are in the midst of a spiral, no one wants to talk about this but wages are going up rapidly. they are saying cost-of-living is up 10%. we are in trouble here and jay powell for political reasons, maybe personal reasons refused to act even though these numbers were getting worse and now panic and move so quickly to raise interest rates but it does slow economic growth. office was unnecessary. amy: it reminds me of the 1970s. that did not go well. truckers speak for millions, tell biden, trudeau, they are not the enemy. do you think we should get rid

of vaccine mandates? >> absolutely. for one thing most people are vaccinated and the ones who are not seem reluctant to make a change. look what happened in new york city. we laid off hundreds of teachers because they refuse to get vaccines. the other thing is in the last couple weeks the cdc made a major acknowledgment after months of refusing to do so telling people if you had covid your immunities are as good as the vaccine and a lot of people resistant to taking the vaccine have already had the disease. they know they have natural immunity. time to treat people like grown-ups. most older people, people with comorbidities have gotten the vaccine. they are not stupid. is people who are young and feel they can survive this disease and are right in thinking that who refused to do

it so let people make their own choices. too much time has gone by. we need workers. we need to see more people working and contributing, helping the supply shortages. firecrackers, firing teachers -- amy: get off our backs. always a pleasure, see you again soon. the freedom convoy in canada inspired a new blockade. >> they reached parliament, this has been going on for 9 days and has reached the escalation point. move or have your vehicle towed, making arrests, trying to disperse them but just like canada this protest is a

copycat of canada how will the prime minister response? she hasn't met with the people, she's been pro-protesters in the past. what does she do? do you want to be a copycat of canada with people protesting harsh mandates? amy: guarantee she will be a copycat, she will oppose the protests. my son is in new zealand. the protest is not popular in new zealand. it is a neo-socialist society where the government run things and people like it that way. todd: are you sure about that? hundreds protesting but could be bigger. amy: not much support from the people. i will put my son on the phone. todd: they have 10 days to catch up to canada. amy: thank you, back to the markets. we are headed further south. the gentleman on the right side of the screen is mark tepper.

you've got an interesting play against inflation. i never thought of it but tell the audience what is the play? >> we had a few conversations with clients. their biggest concern is inflation but they are looking for outside the box ideas. they are looking for some alternative idea. private credit, the second one, don't fall out of your chair, mobile home parks, not very glamorous but the cash flow. let me give private credit. you have these private equity firms loaning money to large privately held companies. these things are paying yields in high single digits and it is inflation proof because the debt is floating rates. as interest rates go up your interest rate goes up. onto mobile home parks, cash

flow. amy: private credit that i could buy into to get a high single digit yields. >> blackstone and goldman sachs are two vehicles i have been using, you know pools investor money. amy: i am very well with it. mobile homes. >> fantastic inflation hedge. you cash your check for that. if something breaks in the hell it is not your problem. these mobile home parks are not only cash flowing a lot, recession proof because demand goes up anytime the economy contracts. amy: pretty good. usually something goes wrong inside the mobile home you don't have to fix it, not your

responsibility. >> that's one of the biggest issues landlords have. of the plumbing goes in a have to fix it. amy: we like your interesting ideas. come back with some more. movers, devon energies up 6%. todd: number 2 on the s&p, shares tracking prices on mixed signals from russia on their pull back from ukraine. the us and nato say putin is building his presence at the border. earnings rose 230% and boosted their dividend. that is why it is a winner today. amy: the ceo has been on this program several times. they are just ugly plastic.

it is down 2%. todd: comfortable ugly plastic and don't know why the stock is down. we had been up, strong earnings, they gave upbeat guidance and i don't know why we had this reversal. amy: toast. todd: they are technology, they help restaurants with their orders and the like. there might be a restaurant chain. i'm not talking about that. look at that, 18%. costs went up 82%. you can't manage 80% increase in costs. that stock is getting killed. amy: what is this about the stock exchange? they will exchange for nfcs. todd: patents branded and fts and the marketplace.

they minted 6 in fts, they started trading, snowflake and some others. the patents are for two reasons, brand protection and expansion into the meta-verse. mcdonald's with an application for their restaurant and disney for their theme parks and facebook is calling their staff meta-mates. not facebook, your meta-mates. it is here, the meta-verse. amy: 216 earlier this morning. i forgot what the high was but i'm sure it was 340. that was chopped off at the knees. it is 216. todd: the low is 212 and that happened today. amy: protesters in the canadian freedom convoy for refusing to back down inside of trudeau invoking emergency powers. frustrated parents voted to

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amy: plenty of red ink on the board wednesday morning. the dow is down 200, the nasdaq is down 200 points. the cdc lowered the cruise travel warning from very high to high as covid cases fall and cruise line stocks are all over the place reacting every moment

to these decisions. in a landslide vote three california radicals were removed from san francisco's school board. some elections are real nailbiter but not this one. >> reporter: good morning. ballots are still being counted bitterly results suggest this was not even close. voters recalling three school board member, all democrats who served long enough to be eligible for recall, first time any school board member was recalled in san francisco. it was a referendum how they managed the pandemic, prioritizing progressive politics over the needs of students, renaming dozens of schools they considered offensive without a plan to get kids into those schools and eliminating merit-based

admissions because too many asian kids were getting in. the district faces a $125 million budget deficit but organizers say it was worth it. >> how to manage kids and collect signatures shows how much -- channel that anger to something -- that is what we feel good about. >> reporter: 70% of voters backed this recall including the mayor, london breed who said voters of the clear message that the school board must focus on the essentials of running a well-run school system above all else. the mayor will appoint three new board numbers as voters look ahead to the next recall of the district attorney in

june. amy: thank you very much. let's ring in former education secretary bill bennett. do you see this as a turning point for these woke schools? >> absolutely. this is a tremendous indicator. we saw in county schools in virginia. people were accused of being right-wingers, trump supporters, haters of democrats. in san francisco, are there any republicans in san francisco? i don't know any. if it can happen in san francisco it can happen anywhere. the most liberal city in america. they recalled 3 liberal democrats. we don't want the renaming of schools to be there business. we want them to teach reading and math.

amy: they try to change the lincoln high school because he was connected to racism and slavery. they don't even know any history. >> teach them the history too. amy: more young men are dying from drug overdoses than covid. is this about fentanyl, good across the border is a broader issue? >> fentanyl is the big killer, we believe fentanyl has killed more people 18 to 45 than covid has and fentanyl is a byproduct of this border policy in droves because criminals are bringing it across. i wrote to donald trump, governor abbott, president biden about doing something consequential. i would favor designating the

drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations which i think they are. to take them on wherever they are like we take on terrorists in the least. amy: would the biden administration do that? >> know. here's the irony. the committee that confirmed me in 1989 was chaired by joe biden who wondered if i was tough enough on the drug issue. that's a different joe biden. amy: really is different. the administration says not going to fund those crack pipes but they will fund more injection centers. i don't think you were happy with injection centers. >> i don't like injection centers or crack pipes.

i went to baltimore in the mayor there was handing out clean needles saying this was a great idea. i spoke to someone who received the needle who said it is a wonderful idea. this is aiming distraction at a part of society and they wanted racially-based to underserved communities so we get more injection sites for minorities. stuart: well said. perhaps next time you come on we can talk about legalizing marijuana at the federal level. thanks, hope to see you again soon. >> you bet. stuart: we have one state where the governor dropped the statewide rule mask mandate. it was illinois. the governor did it. lauren: he wanted it was he wanted masks on children in

schools. what is going on in illinois, in chicago, the school do so the state voted by certain 9-0 making it option, cities like chicago can require students to wear a mask but with that vote in the state capital, they went against the democratic governor saying we don't want mask mandate. stuart: the governor said we got to have them. lauren: flexibilities the bott line. watch infection rates in the county. if it gets bad say we will put the masks on for two weeks. most people would be okay with that but doesn't have to be so black and white. stuart: new york, new jersey or california, wrecked by long-term democrat government, no worse wreckage than illinois. lauren: people going to indiana all the time.

stuart: in contrast, dropping masks in california. a bit more on that coming up. ukrainians marking a national day of unity but russia is considering a military buildup on the border. ♪♪

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stuart: quick look at the dow. it is down 200. the nasdaq down 170 of the be down 30 points. price of oil close to $94 a barrel. natural gas getting close. it is up 5%. not far short of the $5 level. we've got to movers. airbnb. lauren: they expect first quarter bookings to exceed pre-pandemic bookings. more than 850,000 offer electric vehicle charging. a sign of the times being put

in your listing. stuart: if i was going to rent someplace that would be important. lauren: a lender that uses artificial intelligence to determine creditworthiness, it will buy back $400 million, it is a disruptor. ai lending will have the most impactful transformation of credit in decades. stuart: i wonder how artificial intelligence tells you. lauren: they tried to determine. when i do my google searches they predict what i would like. i click on what the computer predict. they study me. they are tracking me. artificial intelligence is often right. stuart: what is that? lauren: down about 7%.

they turned down an unsolicited offer from see world, $60 a share. they want more money. stuart: let's get to russia ukraine. a top diplomat says there is no evidence that russia is pulling back. what is the latest? >> reporter: this is a developing story. nato allies say there is no evidence russian troops are pulling back from ukraine in contrast to what president putin said, that they would be returning to home bases amid fears of a possible russian invasion. ukrainians took to the streets for a day of unity to send a message they are not afraid amid this potential. ukrainians have gathered,

marking a national day of unity. this is the calm before the storm of the russian invasion. the civilian sing-along to the national anthem standing up to any aggression launched by vladimir putin. >> we are united. >> reporter: with uncertain days ahead, one hundred 50,000 troops preparing for a possible attack ukrainians face a choice, to flee or stay in the place they call home. >> we don't have another home. >> reporter: russia drawing down forces, nato countries have seen no evidence to support the claim. the video of russian tanks and forces withdrawing was released by russian state media.

>> we saw a large field hospital around ukraine, deployment from holding areas into more forward areas. >> reporter: ukraine was hit with a massive cyber attack the targeted government and banking infrastructure decide expert doesn't believe ukraine can protect itself against the larger attack that the target water and power grids in kyiv. stuart: look at this. new york times op-ed piece out today. it reads is sleepy joe biden making vladimir putin blinks? ambassador dan freed was the senior director of the national security council. that new york times op-ed written by the top columnist tom friedman implying biden is winning.

>> biden and the american government has done a good job pushing back on food and's aggression. there reward will be not diplomacy and peace but a series of other putin tactics. i wouldn't brief a sigh of relief or say it is over. it is not. the biden team has done a solid job rallying the west, doing what american governments should be doing. standing up to aggressive dictators. that doesn't mean it is over but america is back leading the free world against the kremlin aggressor. stuart: the president is going to hold a phone call with european leaders this friday. can the president keep our

european allies in line? he will have a problem with the germans. >> i think the germans have come a long way. i don't like the sentimentality some parts of the german political establishment have toward moscow. i get it but under the pressure of food and's aggression german opinion has shifted. the green party, a leftist party has the foreign ministry, they are tough, they don't like putin's authoritarianism. social democrats on the left i mixed. they are moving in the right direction. the chancellor did a good job in moscow. the germans are standing. i don't like the german supported gas pipeline, the

germans have begun to back away even from nordstream 2 and others are already there. they are solid. i think the french and germans, this is what allied unity looks like. it is always messy. the good old days, never is good as we look back on them. the rewards for that will be dealing with problems from putin. stuart: very informed comment. hope to see you again soon. president biden's warning that energy prices are higher if russia invaded ukraine. did he say how high these energy prices could go. ashley: the president would not give specific numbers. of russia invaded ukraine the

impact will not be painless also the american people understand defending democracy and liberty is never without costs. the white house is coordinating with energy consumers and producers and working with congress on measures to offset the impact on higher gas prices. jen psaki was asked if those measures included suspension of the federal gas tax. she responded that all options are on the table. stuart: oil has gone $95 a barrel. a 9.7% inflation rate in january. is this the peak inflation? art laffer served as an advisor to president reagan. home buyers facing one of the

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stuart: i need more on the real estate market. we are buying more expensive homes. i presume the mortgages we ask for our much bigger. any numbers on this? ashley: how about 435,$000? that the average mortgage. mortgage demand is falling. the size of the average purchase loan is at a record level. 435,$000 was home prices rising silly of demand outstrips supply of houses for sale.

we saw some moderation since the end of last summer but the gap is widening. prices were up 18% year-over-year but sharp rise in mortgage rates has cut refinance demand. application volume down 9% for the weekend 54% lower than the same week a year ago. stuart: that is what rising mortgage rates do. homebuilder sentiment slipped to a reading of 82 in february. a frequent customer program, welcome back, jerry howard. give us an update on the delay in building a new home. that is big factor. >> i got back from our annual conference with builders all over the country and the number one problems increased building material costs and i had guys

tell me they have a for 5 months delay getting everything from cabinets, garage doors, appliances, trusses. at the delay factor to the costs, the inflation ashley is talking about and regulations the biden administration is putting on the industry and i understand why our guys are getting nervous despite powerful demand. stuart: has the president imposed new rules and regulations? >> he's reimposing regulations the trump administration rolled back or imposing new regulations. stuart: soaring lumber prices are adding 19,$000 to the cost of a new home. what are we talking about?

floors, cabinets? >> we are talking about the framing timber. it is a combination of the lack of supply chain problem, the lack of transportation to get lumber to the site of the builders was a problem with lumber companies not increasing production and our trade war with canada. it touches on all 3 issues. supply chain, deregulation and inflation. lumber is a problem. stuart: you sound miserable which the industry is beset with problems and you are not happy. >> it's not that i'm miserable. we've been talking about this for 6 to 8 months in the marketplace. people aren't listening and the dire predictions appear to be coming true.

stuart: come back again whether there is misery to report. if you are a homeowner in michigan struggling with mortgage and utility payments, there is some relief available. what kind of relief and how much money? ashley: up to 25,$000 in the form of a grant to help struggling homeowners to cover expenses, the money allocated by the american rescue plan act can go from condominium payments plus payment of escrow shortages and past-due utility payments. homeowners must have incomes less then 150% of the median income. you are required to own and occupy the property and have financial hardship directly related to the pandemic after

january of 2020. this includes water, sewer and internet broadband services. stuart: help is at hand. the ceo of moderna believes we are approaching final stages of the pandemic. ♪♪

stuart: the energy department missed the deadline to report the number of jobs lost when biden -- cancel the keystone pipeline. what is the hold up? >> reporter: energy secretary jennifer granholm is not handing over the information she's obligated to under law to congress which would detail how many jobs were lost when president biden decided to cancel the keystone pipeline but president biden admitting that americans are going to feel more pain at the pump than they are feeling if the

situation in ukraine progresses with gas prices hitting record highs in some places. president biden insists the strategy is to wait and hold off on sanctions until russia invaded ukraine and if they do biden says russia's gas pipeline to germany will not happen. >> president biden: when it comes to nordstream 2, if russia further invades ukraine it will not happen. >> reporter: the republicans are not waiting to act. fox business reporting a new bill introduced in the house called midland over moscow, the biden administration to act now and stop the nordstream 2 to prevent russia getting more leverage, was part of a congressional delegation on the ground in ukraine two weeks ago. >> in my conversation with

president zelinski energy was the lever vladimir putin is using as the impetus to invade ukraine. it is important not to depend on the line actors. >> reporter: the bill would increase oil and gas exports to e t e int e te.e like russia rt: wa tri bn ng i setose bjohn wi pwill pdere bdeevseeverer e utive ore e ed edose thpelipis?pipi not c e.hahapen.en preisdentisasiseen bee w bee bee beewi ean e e continuentinto dincee ne ne mate hin hess whesr ex ivdersiv or legislleioio an keep energyenn eneenenen ouamern ama anamweananan yi ng m e fo one

dollar a gallon more for gasoline than when he took office but with regard to energy you need energy for manufacturing, to transport things to market. that is why we are at 40 year high inflation. he is the president of high prices with no end insight. stuart: the climate warriors made a mistake. they want to eradicate all fossil fuels immediately. they are ignoring natural gas which has less carbon. we have enough to heat the world. it is a mistake biden has made because of the environmentalists. that's my opinion. what is your? >> you are right. we are better as a nation, stronger economically if we are selling energy to our friends than having to buy it from our

enemies but president biden shutdown energy development offshore, public lands, in alaska and russia is able to export 5 million barrels of crude oil a day. we are heading toward $100 a barrel oil. the jackpot for vladimir putin and yesterday president biden double down when he talked to national organization of county commissioners. he's on the build back better plan which includes penalties, taxes and mandates on american energy making it more expensive. stuart: they want to put on a federal board member to introduce climate warrior stuff to lower investment in the fossil fuel industry. couldn't be going in a worse direction but that is my opinion.

thank you for being here. we appreciate it. hope to see you again soon. plenty of reading down 125 on the nasdaq. still ahead texas congressman dan crenshaw, and jason rants, all on board. three radical members of the school board in san francisco toss out, parents fed up with socialist dominance, parents are not powerless. organize, vote and win. that's "my take," next. ♪♪ ♪♪ vice, tools and a personalized plan that helps you build a future

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>> in charge of the situation. he views president biden as being weak, rudderless, timid when it comes to making decisions. >> good news is becoming bad news. when we see retail sales increase part of what we are seeing is consumers willing to spend ahead of higher prices in the future. >> unless consumer sentiment

improves we are looking at a recession. >> the bond market is sending warning signals. if they tighten like they say we will be into a recession and if they knew nothing inflation will go through the roof. >> was worrisome is the numbers are getting worse. inflation, economist on wall street, is everywhere. ♪♪ can't touch this ♪♪ stuart: what is this? i can't touch this. mc hammer. you are looking at sixth avenue, new york city. we are not back into these huge office buildings, that faces inserted. it is of 11:00 eastern time, wednesday february 16th. markets have a lot of ring -- red in color with them.

the 10 year treasury yield, 2.03% as we speak. that means big tech is all the way down. microsoft, apple, alphabet, amazon on the downside just about everything else. now this. big cities across america will feel the impact of what happened in san francisco, three radical members of the board were tossed out. it was a recall voted they lost in a landslide the parents everywhere fed up with socialist dominance, this was a big win. the san francisco school board tried to rename 44 schools because their parent names were linked to racism and slavery, tried to change the name of the abraham lincoln high school was they wanted to end the use of grades and tests to get into

level high school. they wanted a lottery. that is why asian voters turned out to kick the radicals out. parents are not powerless was organize and vote. next the recall vote on the radical district attorney who prosecutes nothing and allows shoplifters to walk out unchallenged. he made the city dangerous was recall vote is june 7th. his way out. city suffering under soft on crime policies. you had your experiment with our lives in children and we the people have had enough. of san francisco radicals could be defeated in a landslide it could happen anywhere. third hour of varney starts right now.

martha mccallum joined me now. this recall vote sends a clear message to the rest of the country. >> you talk about socialism, government expansion. democracy works. it turns out people think abraham lincoln was one of the greatest presidents the country ever had. we wouldn't have a country without abraham lincoln. there is sanity in the world. people believe there is room for grading and tests to allow people to go forward. merit matters. these are saying voices. the fact they exist in san francisco is good news for the rest of the country. there is an interesting poll that leaked. inward looking as they get

ready for the midterms was voters admit their party was preachy and judgmental and focused on culture wars. you are seeing what is happening in new jersey where phil murphy decided i almost lost that election. listen to what people are saying. you are seeing the pendulum shift as it usually does. how far does it go in one direction and where is the middle of the pendulum? stuart: a message for the country. look at this. this is an op-ed on the new york times. you sleepy joe biden making vladimir putin blink? he is implying biden is almost winning against boudin?

>> other editorials, one in the wall street journal, one in the washington post, people are saying biden made the right moves. nobody wants war. it can only end badly for both sides. this pizza -- this piece looks at what boudin really wants. he doesn't ukraine to become westernized. even belarus -- he's trying to keep his chess pieces on the board to hang onto his own leadership. he thought the biden speech was excellent. on the top of their headlines, someone on our show said the speech was excellent. we have lots of opinions all over the channel. everybody wants the president

to succeed. he's had a rough go of it. his approval numbers in bad shape. inflation is out of control. crime is out of control. let's hope we get a win with putin but let's keep the pressure on. if we pass this moment is not a victory. we need to recalibrate. keep the pressure on him. no matter what happens at the border. stuart: energy is the key. >> we need to be energy independent. stuart: it would make all the difference. >> we should be providing gas to germany. it is a great weapon. stuart: glad we are in agreement. we will be watching you. let's get to the money again.

i hesitate to say it is stable but it is stabilize with a minus 200 point loss on the dow. brian belsky, you are always bullish for the long-term but how about this? shouldn't we be worried short-term what the fed is going to do? >> investors are disrespectful to the fed. to february of 2020, said help help help help help. now they will mess up again because they read in an academic book the fed is late in this and we see headline numbers with respect to cpi and ppi but the fed is the smartest person in the room. the bond market thinks they are.

with fed funds futures looking for 7 interest rate increases. that would shape the economy more given the reliance on the fed. investors want it both ways and we need to apply common sense and we will receive some of that from the fed notes but i think the fed will be raising rates in march. it won't be 50 basis points, some increased quantitative tightening and free interest rate increases and maybe more. there is too much conjecture the fed is behind the curve. the same people that wanted the fed to give free money away and they wanted to go in the opposite direction. stuart: you are not going to

get dramatic rate increases from the fed. it will not plunge this spring and summer and we will be higher by the end of the year. >> investors need to digest the higher rate environment. the 10 year treasury average is 2.2%. over the last 70 years, 6%. we are well below historical averages. it is good the fed is raising rates because the economy is up longer-term. stuart: i will remember that and we have you saying it. thanks for joining us. lauren has the movers. looking at amc. lauren: buying theaters in chicago. reopening them. chicago is the latest market

addition, la, san diego and recent purchases. stuart: that is a play to people going back to the movies. neil: reopening. i want to go to transition out of that category with fundamentals and purchases. a little bit of amine. stuart: craft tines. let's see that. neil: pricing power. they are raising prices again. after increasing them by 4%. they can do it like philadelphia cream cheese. stuart: tell me about doordash. lauren: the stock is down 3%. they are trying to stay relevant because business boomed during the covid surge. i think they are going at it again and that will hurt. stuart: thank you very much.

the ceo of moderna thinks the end of the pandemic is insight. we are on it. republicans block votes from the fed reserve nominees. they want sarah bloom raskin out of consideration. we will take you to the white house for a report. police in ottawa are handing out flyers to truckers telling them to leave or they could be arrested. grady trimble has the report next. ♪♪ break on through ♪♪ to the other side ♪♪ break on through ♪♪ to the other side ♪♪ 2a's monitoring his money with a simple text. like what you see abe? yes! 2b's covered with zero overdraft fees when he overdraws his account by fifty bucks or less.

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stuart: police in ottawa telling protesters leave immediately. if you don't you could be arrested and face criminal charges. grady trimble is in ottawa. anyone listening to the police order? >> reporter: not that i have seen. the police have started going up to the protesters and truckers with words in english on one side and french on the other side. you must leave the area. anyone blocking streets are assisting others in blocking streets are committing a little offense. you must cease further unlawful activities or face charges and/or convictions related to unlawful activity associated with denial in crossing the border. talking to terry they gave you one of these flyers. what are you going to do? >> we as a people in this

convoy are standing strong. we are not moving. if they want to take us to jail that is there alternative. we are not moving. we've been peaceful. we have been demonstrating our rights and applying them in accordance to the law. >> reporter: what do you think the optics would be if the police started arresting people and removing trucks? >> it will be was we would refer to as shooting themselves in the foot. the people are standing up for something we believe in for the country, not individual ideology from trucking convoy but a desire, a passion in our heart which we deeply believe is the freedoms of this country that is democratic being taken away.

>> reporter: they are not moving. stuart: you are in the middle of it. congressman dan crenshaw joined me now. you've got a solution to those canadian trekkers. >> i pointed out in the united states we have a a short agenda visa program where they can apply. americans take our freedoms for granted. we just assume other western nations like canada have those values and they do but they don't have a backstop. the constitutional protections. politicians from overreacting. we saw these in freedom loving western democracy. you have to be grateful for what we have.

stuart: should we end the vaccination mandate in the united states? >> i have been trying to end that since it was brought up. we have in place applies to healthcare workers. i have introduced a bill to repeal that. that is what the supreme court did not vote to overturn. stuart: you are in the house energy and commerce committee. what happens to the price of energy of russia invades ukraine? >> i agree with the analysis that prices will spike. i don't think russia will cut off gas supply to europe. russia relies on that but they may do some of it to leverage an agreement over nordstream 2. that is where you will see a spike. this is why republicans arafat

about energy independence and exporting energy. we didn't know we had plenty but now we do, the white house changed a bit. if america was supplying europe's guess these price spikes wouldn't happen. they would be more stability in the market. we have a more stable market globally. it used to be middle east conflict because price spikes. democrats want to ban exports based on the simplistic argument that banning exports would reduce prices. that ignores a lot of contexts and gases a global commodity. stuart: the president would deliver his state of the union address. he might declare victory over covid and take credit for that. would you like to make any

predictions what he's going to say? >> i'm trying to think of positive things. what a president does the state of the union is a bragging session but he will have a hard time doing it. inflation is high, gas prices highest in 7 years. afghanistan. russia on the verge of invading ukraine. americans are not happy. aboard a crisis, the worst in decades. we know what the state of the union is and it is not so great. we will see how he can spin that. stuart: i but he declares victory over covid and takes the credit. >> i think you are right but don't think anybody will believe it. stuart: look at the markets. we are down 220.

30 points on the s&p. the ceo of moderna hinting we are getting towards the end of the pandemic. ashley: an 80% chance as the omicron very in default we will see less there'll and viruses. it is reasonable we are approaching the final stages of the pandemic. omicron may be more contagious but not as virulent. he acknowledges thousands of people dying every day according to the world health organization. with 73,000 deaths in the same period. the virus will stay with humans forever. like the flu we have to learn to live with it.

stuart: any numbers how much the testing program will cost the federal government if the mandate is not lifting? ashley: how about $22 million a month? that the number quoted by the office of management, 30,000. - are not fully vaccinated. the government hires new employees every month. and is unable to require them to get vaccinated. it requires federal employees to get vaccinated weekly for covid 19. the estimated cost is between 11 million, $222 million each month, $65 million each quarter. stuart: very expensive. tom brady's former teammates don't think he is done with football. he could be eyeing a new team.

how do we avoid recession when rates and inflation are rising? art laffer will talk about that next. ♪♪ money money money money money money money ♪♪ money money money money money money money money money ♪♪ money ♪♪ your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire it■s hard eating healthy.

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♪♪ you are so golden ♪♪ stuart: that song is you are so golden. as we show the golden gate bridge in the formerly golden state of california. that is the san francisco golden gate bridge. if you like the music we play on the show follow us a on spotify. back to the markets. plenty of red all over the place. including the stock price of meta-platforms. susan is back with us. you have an explanation why meta is down, to $214 a share. susan: formerly facebook selling off this morning after google announced they were going to follow apple with privacy changes in the operating system.

this is on android powered smartphones meaning apps like facebook or meta-can't track where you go and target ads. $10 billion in lost sales, 70% of the world's smartphones going up more than $10 billion. stuart: that is huge and explains why meta-has gone from 384, two 214. what else have you got? susan: viacom cbs, look at this. down 21%. they are rebranding. doesn't roll off the tongue. the name change is taking place tomorrow and thursday and underscores -- they means a new ticker symbol but strong

streaming numbers, paramount plus added 70 million subscribers in the last few months so that is a total of $32.8 million helping to boost sales. yellowstone with the kevin costner hit, fifth or sixth season is doing well. they are not downgrading the stock to $39. stuart: onscreen it says aviation. susan: you love talking about archer and air taxis. they signed a big deal in japan. one of the largest airlines, imagine that instead of a 1 hour drive. i love educating stuart varney the future is closer than you think which you might go to mars one they. stuart: i don't think so but if it is down one% with a new japanese airline.

susan: it was up 3% in the opening trade but there might be another version without ukraine and russia. stuart: good explanation on meta-blooge the white house is shifting the inflation game to the federal reserve after new data shows no sign of prices moderating. they are blaming jay powell for inflation. >> reporter: everyone from the president to the press secretary, subtly shifting the blame to the federal reserve for inflation, listen to this. >> elevated prices don't become entrenched. >> we rely on their projections that inflation will come down.

>> full employment at stable prices. >> president biden: i'm confident the federal reserve will act to achieve the goal of full employment and stable prices. >> reporter: inflation started rising when president biden discouraged investment in us coal and oil. supply chain problems added as they added stimulus checks as we see retail sales rising 3.8% beating expectations, adding to inflation. jen psaki says all five said nominees need to be confirmed. republicans have an issue that they should regulate based on climate change. >> does the white house support allowing four of the 5 nominees going through? >> we are working with chairman brown to move the nominees forward.

>> reporter: the administration trying to shift blame away from policies to the federal reserve. they are holding of the nomination of jay powell so all 5 of their nominees go forward. stuart: we have an inflation problem up 9.7%. art laffer is a former reagan economic advisor, the former reagan economic advisor. we've got raging inflation at the federal reserve that is going to raise interest rates. how do we avoid a recession? >> i don't think raising interest rates will cause a recession. we got inflation building up. all signs point to higher inflation. the only reason the producer price index dropped slightly was the year ago month dropped off the list.

even though this year was high. it wasn't have high as it was a year ago. if you look at the producer price index it will keep going. the cpi will level out but looking at energy prices in these other things all indications point to higher inflation and the fit is responsible for all of this as well as government spending which is out of sight. stuart: it reminds me of the 1970s. 10% inflation. we had 10%. in the early 80s we had 10%. there is a parallel. 2022, 1979. >> what the fed did when we took office in 1981, the prime interest rate was 21.5%. that was the interest rate.

inflation was in double digits at that time. the real interest rate was above which tightens the system dramatically. if we did the same today which we should do. we would have to raise interest rates, the tenure bond yields 2%. we would have to raise it, the tenure bond yield above inflation, 10%, 11% to get control of inflation. if they don't do that we will never get control of inflation and you will have the 1970s all over again. these appointments are important that they stick to their mandate. rates have to go up. that will be good for the market. stuart: in the long run. i can accept that. not sure about the short run. >> sound money is good for all runs. stuart: i am listening.

come back soon and tell us more. >> whenever you ask. stuart: good stuff. i find this extraordinary. the los angeles rams will hold their victory parade today. believe it or not, you will need to prove you are vaccinated to attend an outdoor parade. baseball spring training is here but the players are not. they are locked into a labor dispute. neither side has plans to concede. we have another report on baseball from florida next. ♪♪ ♪♪

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we are showing tampa, florida. the home of tom brady's buccaneers football team. is it a suggestion? he announced his retirement earlier this month. his teammates are hinting he may not be done with football. what are they saying? ashley: brady and the restless. after announcing his retirement he raised speculation of a comeback when he said never say never. some of his peers believe he wants to play in the nfl. could be released by the franchise after june 1st to save salary space. some close to brady believe he would join another team if he does come back. join us tomorrow for another episode of brady and the restless.

we when you've got a good voice for that. the super bowl parade, the rams in la today. you can't go to this outdoor parade unless you have proof of vaccination. ashley: it is true. people going to the rams rally are required to show proof of vaccination, negative antigen test or negative pcr test. the rams are having a championship parade followed by a rally outside the la coliseum. it comes with covid restrictions. stuart: that is extraordinary. it is an outdoor parade and you have to show proof of vaccination. i presume the parade route, if you want to have cops say where

are your papers can they do that? ashley: it is ridiculous. stuart: i don't think it will be observed at all. can you see football fans cheering on their team, that is just me. glad we are in agreement. baseball spring training delayed. league and players union split on negotiations. mcshane is with us. spring-training pushed back. will opening day be pushed back? >> reporter: it's not looking good. there are empty fields behind me. players should be having their first full day today of spring-training. the marlins shared this facility and both play spring-training games at roger dean stadium but no sign of a

time either of those teams will be in that stadium. i've been talking to officials on both sides of the negotiations. they are very far apart on a number of issues, competitive balance tax, the teams that spend the most money to keep the league competitive. they are apart on that. they want to create a bonus pool for younger players. they want $100 million, that is how far apart they are on these issues. you will see the field where the marlins are training. imagine the crack of the bat, none of that is happening. one of the employees said it is a normally a sea of red, they

have a such a big fan base. people take a vacation in florida. if they did a deal by the end of the month it would be tough to start on time. stuart: making a comeback is going to be difficult. there was a baseball strike that took years to recover. i remember it. thanks. show me a sense of the market. >> 7 or 8 in the green. you see where the selling is coming from. homeless drug addicts have taken a seattle neighborhood. people say they are being terrorized.

the report from seattle next. ♪♪

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stuart: homeless people take over a park in seattle 's capitol hill neighborhood. they have been terrorized and threatened. jason rants, we have a homeless problem in all democrat in cities in america. how is seattle dealing with that homeless problem in that part? >> reporter: we are not dealing with it at all. it is surrounded by million-dollar homes. this problem has popped up since july. they are occupied by drug addicts. a lot of open-air drug use. lots of assaults, home break ins. there was a stabbing in november of last year. the city did nothing while

residents were demanding something be done. when they got together as a community their reviews activists who showed up who were heckling them. i was told they were following homeowners to intimidate them into giving up. here in seattle the goal is to get permanent supports of housing. they are not going to move these homeless folks. stuart: a black lives matter activist charged with attempted murder of a mayoral candidate. brown fired multiple shots. this suspect wrote about socialism and gun control. many in the media are glossing over his politics. that would not be the case if the suspects were a

conservative. >> if he was a white dude in a maga had with trump account on twitter and appeared on fox news and committed alleged political assassination attempt they might talk about it more. a press release from the january 6th commission and it is wall-to-wall coverage and what appears to be an attempted political as fascinated gets a little bit of coverage but not much at all. no one could look at the landscape of politics where they talk about the dangerous rhetoric from the right and then it does not get covered. it is ludicrous but tells us where the media is. they don't care about the issues. they care about the politics. this is an interesting idea for air travel.

alaska airlines is launched a flight past. you pay $49 a month. that gets you 6, 12 or 24 round-trip flights were fixed price. investors seem to like it. the cdc lowered its cruise travel warning from very high to high. i'm sure that helps a lot. cruise lines are up and down with any news about covid. almost 11:55. the wednesday trivia question. what's the fastest speed on record a human being has ever run? 12 miles an hour, 19 miles an hour, 22, 27 miles an hour? don't know where i'm going to go on this one. can a human run at 22 miles an hour?

the correct answer after this. what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, . . there's a different way to treat hiv. it's once-monthly injectable cabenuva. cabenuva is the only once-a-month, complete hiv treatment for adults who are undetectable. cabenuva helps keep me undetectable. it's two injections, given by a healthcare provider once a month. hiv pills aren't on my mind. i love being able to pick up and go. don't receive cabenuva if you're allergic to its ingredients or taking certain medicines, which may interact with cabenuva. serious side effects include allergic reactions post-injection reactions, liver problems,...and depression. if you have a rash and other allergic reaction symptoms,

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stuart: what is the fast test speed on record that a human being as ever run? i start with you, ash. come on in, give us your guess. ashley: i'm thinking a short burst from hussein bolt may get up to 27. how about 27 miles per hour? stuart: that sounds a bit high to me. my guess would be 22 miles an hour. i high hussein bolt could do that. it is 27.

whoa!. here is the story. it is 27 mile-an-hour. hussein bolt set the record-setting 100-meter dash in 2009. sprinted from 60-meter to 80-meter mark, they clocked him in that section, 1.16 seconds. that is 27 miles an hour. can you believe that? next time you drive a car, look at speed domer, hughes sane bolt could be outside the keeping up with you. ashley: i would drive into a ditch. stuart: let me get back to you in a second. let me deal with this. tell you about a project i'm involved with bret baier, panel event to benefit the childrens national hospital in d.c. the event is this saturday, 9:00 p.m. eastern in naples, florida. i'm afraid tickets are sold out but there is a silent auction over to everybody. all-star panel event.com, click the silent auction button to register and you can bid on a

dinner with me. if you're prepared to have money with dinner with me. ash, go back to, proving you have to have vaccination papers super bowl outdoor parade. anything new on that? ashley: the parade route short, 1.1 miles, down figueroa street in l.a. who will enforce the restrictions. stuart: i would love to see that enforce. david asman in for neil. david: i would love to see them enforce that. i'm david asman in for neil cavuto on "coast to coast." we have republican senator thom tillis. we'll talk to him how the biden administration wants to spend more money on covid. they have 800 billion they haven't even spent yet. how is that going to work out? people in n