criticism. you're mayor of new york city, toughen up your going long four years if you keep blaming attacks from that media on racism. because they are going to come after you. again you are the mayor of new york city of got be tougher. >> okay thanks, carol thanks to right that's it for us this week. gerry will be back next week with more in-depth interviews right here on the wall street ibly2 jack: we get behind the week ahead. jeremy grantham is predicting epic stock market crash. why he believes the super bubble is about to pop. is the fed doing enough to tame inflation? michael darda but explain what powell is doing wrong and how it affect your money. we begin with most important

things investors are thinking about. there is widespread pain in the market. investors concerned about rate hikes and tensions. roadblocks --roblox has declined 20%. will they keep tumbling? as omicron wayne travel is on the rebound. when will hotel and airline stocks take off? speculative growth stocks taking it on the chin. this past week a lot of stocks, broader range of the markets got hit. is it rising rates, ukraine or general malaise? jack: the s&p had a bad weekend gave up most of its gains since bottoming in january. you can blame russia or the fed but people are realizing they own the wrong stock and are trying to reposition.

they have been selling us stocks and buying international. this week was a little weird because they were selling things that have been working like energy stocks. feels like very few places. jack: a lot of churn out there. will anything of the market clarity or will they wait until the fed meeting? jack: i'm not sure the fed meeting will do the trick. the 50 basis points of come down but even with accorded point there will be worries. does the fed have to go faster? how much will they rise if inflation doesn't come in? don't know how much clarity we will get. jack: retailers are reporting earnings next week. will anything give you a hint about demand? jack: i'm watching home depot

and macy's and online retailers, we have retail sales that were very good. we would like to see good numbers showing consumers are still spending and willing to pay higher prices for stuff that is on the shelves. jack: let's dig deeper into speculative stocks. is this a buying opportunity jack: it looks like -- it looks like a buying opportunity. shopify down 20%. don't confuse that with spotify. you have roblox down 26%, drafting 20%. the previous members of the 20% plunge club, netflix, paypal,

meta platforms. be of a says we haven't seen this many blowups since the dot.com stock bubble, not just growth stock but paramount global said we are bringing in subscribers. we need to spend more on content. they took stocks down 18%, spent much of the last decade hearing from netflix. lots of subscribers are coming in but rates of change to now that interest rates are expected to rise. they want free cash flow, reasonable valuation at a pat on the head into tomi kick. i don't know what they want. jack: what about a great story? these are story stocks. is that dead?

jack: nobody wants to hear the story. they want to see the cash, the growth. jack: the only good news is from carleton. thank you for being a cheery moment on the show. travel stocks not too bad. i gather people are finally traveling again. carleton: we are seeing return to normal and the new normal. airbnb gets a quarter on people staying 28 days. why is that? you can work from anywhere. families are saying we are not just tied to one week vacation and i will work for a week or so and add some time to that. traditional players improving from the depths of the pandemic. we saw marriott with revenue

increased 100% year over year. we see comparison to pre-pandemic levels of 13% to 19% which isn't so bad when they also deal with the omicron variant. jack: the big unknown is business travel. we've gotten used to these zoom meetings. any indication business travel will return? carleton: that might be 2024. if you think about overnight or you are in and out within one day or 36 hours do you want to do that when facing restrictions? is everyone vaccinated? you won't see that travel return for some time. jack: i am also hearing executives will travel less and

lump meetings together. if i can have four or five it should be worth it. thanks. next, why one of wall street's next, why one of wall street's most respected strategists says whether you've enjoyed the legendary terrain in telluride, the unparalleled landscape of park city or the famed peaks of whistler,

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we should define what a bubble was since everyone was talking about it. we took a measure of statistical outliership that would be once every 44 years in a random world. that is what we would call a regular bubble and you would expect trouble. when they had the kind that should occur every hundred years we call them super bubbles. that has been a small number, three of them in the us equity market. this one. the 2000 tech bubble in 1929. there's been one in the housing market in 2007. jack: you say the s&p 500 could go 2500 to get to fair value, it could fall below that. that's not scary enough. on the behavioral side

investors are acting bubbly too. give your favorite examples. jeremy: the idea to get your brain around is a huge commercial imperative for the big firms, the banks, goldman sachs, to play up to the end. it is usually profitable. they are never convincingly bearish. it doesn't make commercial sense but at the top even though they feel the imperative to be bullish they are thinking the market looks like that. i'm not going to dance over the edge. i'm going to dance over the edge in coca-cola in 1929 and it works. when the end comes it is better to have jumped off a cliff with the blue chips. the defining feature of the

great bubble, superbubbles is towards the end, on the upside, the s&p and blue chips, they led the market for the previous few years start to go down. they get the sign wrong. well over 40% of stock on the nasdaq is down 50% from its high. this divergence occurred in 1929, 1972, 2000 and is once again started since spring of last year. jack: arc innovation is down half. investors are wondering what to do. selling everything and waiting for jeremy grantham to say to by now is not a great strategy. what should investors do at this point? jeremy: i did write my letter

reinvesting when terrified at the bottom of 2009. jack: you deserve kudos for that. jeremy: have some cash reserves and buying opportunities in the next couple years. secondly, i would try and employ us stocks. if you have to own some i would own high quality. and the ability, all bubbles breaking, to cause a credit crisis. it may not but it may. to chips are the way to go. avoid debt. to the extent you can, avoid the us, the most overpriced market.

real estate is overpriced everywhere. the stock markets outside the us are not that bad. they are in a bull market, but only normally overpriced. japan, the uk not so bad. looking at emerging markets you would find cheaper countries there too. if you look for the cheap stuff, growth has had an unprecedented decade. emphasize cheap countries, cheap stocks, avoid the us and if you have to buy the us bring quality stuff and have a cash reserve. jack: fantastic advice for americans who are over invested in us stocks. time for that to reverse. i can't say it is a pleasure to speak with you but a wonderful

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jack: federal reserve chairman jerome powell tackling the highest inflation in 40 years. economist worn rate hikes could cause a new recession. is the fed in a no-win situation? strategist michael darda joins the panel. thanks for coming on the show. after the financial crisis, the fed cut rates, bought bonds, but even that didn't spark the inflation they wanted.

when covid hit the fed double down and we have strong growth and hot inflation. was this a case of fighting the last war? michael: that is what happened. in the wake of the financial crisis we had tremendous pressure from risk of version and deleveraging. the fed had to do quantitative easing and keep interest rates at low levels to achieve modest growth, low but positive inflation. we were hit with a different shock and it was more aggressive and open-ended when he responded in early 2020. recovery has been more rapid. inflation is higher. the fed is still clinging to a reaction function we saw in the last business cycle.

they are behind the curve. jack: does that mean they have to get more aggressive than the market is pricing in right now? how much interest rate hiking will roll off of the balance sheet? michael: they have to get more aggressive. right now futures markets are pricing for them to move every meeting going forward. we had markets pricing and 50 basis points. where the pricing has to move is on the terminal rate. carleton: what do we expect for the next year in the stock market? michael: we will see more volatility. the way this year started off could be a prelude for the rest of the year.

if we think back to 1994, the last time the fed was moving in a more aggressive fashion the s&p didn't do much. we had an 8% fall off. the market started to recover. we could see something similar play out if the fed is forced to be more aggressive. jack: jack hough. i could get a treasury of 2% the latest reading on inflation is 7.5%. i'm out of fingers and toes making that math work. what should i do about bonds? michael: the math doesn't work. as we are seeing, the 10 year yield has been moving higher. it is low on a historical basis, it is low relative to the last business cycle that had low-inflation. we could have a ways to go on the 10 year.

typically the short end will come up faster than the long end. the whole rate structure should be levitating higher. ben: fed tightening lead to a recession. is there a way to avoid that? michael:if the fed is forward-looking and reinforces targets in a credible way they could get up to a neutral rate, slightly above neutral and if sufficiently forward-looking we could have a soft landing but it is more difficult if you fallen behind the curve and the tightening process is speedier. it is like a vehicle. if you are traveling at a high rate of speed it is easier to

come off the road. it's a bigger challenge to avoid a recession. inflation remains elevated at rates the fed needs to go above neutral to bring inflation down and that means recessionary outcome is more likely. jack: thank you for coming on the show. michael: thanks for having me. as a struggling actor, i need all the breaks that i can get. at liberty butchemel... cut. liberty mu... line? cut. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. cut. liberty m... am i allowed to riff? what if i come out of the water? liberty biberty... cut. we'll dub it. liberty mutual customizes your car insurance so you only pay for what you need. only pay for what you need.

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jack: i haven't set foot in the multiplex for a long time but the box office is booming.

my son wanted to stream spiderman and it is still not available. ben: i'm watching the jackass indicator, the do -- the new johnny knoxville maybe cost $10 to make. a screen reboot made $130 million. those and the spiderman movie, you are seeing successes of all sizes and it bodes well for movies this year. i spoke this week with paramount's ceo who settled on a sweet spot for movies, fast follow. within the theater for 45 days and bring them to streaming when they benefit from marketing spending so you get jackass and scream on paramount plus in march. paramount has mission

impossible in top gun later this year. big movies they've been sitting on, 4, black panther, avatar to name a few. i spoke with one box office analyst who said we could do $8 billion in north american gross this year, a few billion dollars off 3 pandemic levels. jack: that's impressive but not as impressive as your new economic indicator. thank you for that. let's go to actionable ideas. you have one jeremy would love. ben: i'm looking at gold miners. a great week after reporting earnings. goldfield looking good. or you can buy etfs. they are looking great right now. jack: they x up 10%. carleton, what your idea? carleton: if jack is going to the movies i'm staying home

looking at ethan allen. a 4.6% dividend and most production is in-house or the us. they have tighter control over their supply chain which is a concern. jack: they were on shoreing before it became a trend. all great ideas. all great ideas. check out barrons.com. (announcer) the following is a paid presentation furnished by rare collectibles tv, llc. (announcer) the biggest numismatic event of the year just occurred! the 2021 morgan and peace silver dollars are finally available and you are first in line to acquire your very own set right now! the silver dollar is the ultimate collector's coin and the two most popular silver dollar designs are the morgan silver dollar struck from 1878 to 1921 and